Evolutionary and plastic rescue in multitrophic model communities

Counter-gradient variation in gene expression between fish populations facilitates colonization of low-dissolved oxygen environments

The role of phenotypic plasticity during colonization remains unclear due to the shifting importance of plasticity across timescales. In the early stages of colonization, plasticity can facilitate persistence in a novel environment; but over evolutionary time, processes such as genetic assimilation may reduce variation in plastic traits such that species with a longer evolutionary history in an environment can show lower levels of plasticity than recent invaders. Therefore, comparing species in the early stages of colonization to long-established species provides a powerful approach for uncovering the role of phenotypic plasticity during different stages of colonization. We compared gene expression between low-dissolved oxygen (DO) and high-DO populations of two cyprinid fish: Enteromius apleurogramma, a species that has undergone a recent range expansion, and E. neumayeri, a long-established native species in the same region. We sampled tissue either immediately after capture from the field or after a 2-week acclimation under high-DO conditions, allowing us to test for both evolved and plastic differences in low-DO vs high-DO populations of each species. We found that most genes showing candidate-evolved differences in gene expression did not overlap with those showing plastic differences in gene expression. However, in the genes that did overlap, there was counter-gradient variation such that plastic and evolved gene expression responses were in opposite directions in both species. Additionally, E. apleurogramma had higher levels of plasticity and evolved divergence in gene expression between field populations. We suggest that the higher level of plasticity and counter-gradient variation may have allowed rapid genetic adaptation in E. apleurogramma and facilitated colonization. This study shows how counter-gradient variation may impact the colonization of divergent oxygen environments.

Incorporating climate-readiness into fisheries management strategies

Tropical oceans are among the first places to exhibit climate change signals, affecting the habitat distribution and abundance of marine fish. These changes to stocks, and subsequent impacts on fisheries production, may have considerable implications for coastal communities dependent on fisheries for food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of climate change on tropical marine fisheries is therefore an important step towards developing sustainable, climate-ready fisheries management measures. We apply an established method of spatial meta-analysis to assess species distribution modelling datasets for key species targeted by the Philippines capture fisheries. We analysed datasets under two global emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and varying degrees of fishing pressure to quantify potential climate vulnerability of the target community. We found widespread responses to climate change in pelagic species in particular, with abundances projected to decline across much of the case study area, highlighting the challenges of maintaining food security in the face of a rapidly changing climate. We argue that sustainable fisheries management in the Philippines in the face of climate change can only be achieved through management strategies that allow for the mitigation of, and adaptation to, pressures already locked into the climate system for the near term. Our analysis may support this, providing fisheries managers with the means to identify potential climate change hotspots, bright spots and refugia, thereby supporting the development of climate-ready management plans.

Non-genetic phenotypic variability affects populations and communities in protist microcosms

Intraspecific trait variation (ITV), potentially driven by genetic and non-genetic mechanisms, can underlie variability in resource acquisition, individual fitness and ecological interactions. Impacts of ITV at higher levels of biological organizations are hence likely, but up-scaling our knowledge about ITV importance to communities and comparing its relative effects at population and community levels has rarely been investigated. Here, we tested the effects of genetic and non-genetic ITV on morphological traits in microcosms of protist communities by contrasting the effects of strains showing different ITV levels (i.e. trait averages and variance) on population growth, community composition and biomass production. We found that genetic and non-genetic ITV can lead to different effects on populations and communities across several generations. Furthermore, the effects of ITV declined across levels of biological organization: ITV directly altered population performance, with cascading but indirect consequences for community composition and biomass productivity. Overall, these results show that the drivers of ITV can have distinct effects on populations and communities, with cascading impacts on higher levels of biological organization that might mediate biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships.

High importance of indirect evolutionary rescue in a small food web

Evolutionary rescue may allow species to survive environmental change, but how this mechanism operates in food webs is poorly understood. Here, the evolutionary rescue was investigated in a small model food web, systematically allowing the evolution of each single species in order to reveal how its adaptation affects the persistence of itself and others. The impact of evolution was highly species-specific and not necessarily positive: only one species, the specialist predator, consistently had a positive impact on overall persistence. Most strikingly, evolution overwhelmingly affected other species: rescue of others (indirect rescue) was far more frequent than self-rescue, and negative effects were nearly always indirect. This demonstrates that evolutionary rescue in food webs is inextricably bound up with species interactions, as the effects of evolution in one species ripple through the entire community. It is therefore critically important to consider the food web context in efforts to understand how species may survive global change.

Plastic energy allocation toward life-history functions in a consumer-resource interaction : Analyzing the temporal patterns of the consumer-resource dynamics

Various environmental alterations resulting from the current global change compromise the persistence of species in their habitual environment. To cope with the obvious risk of extinction, plastic responses provide organisms with rapid acclimatization to new environments. The premise of plastic rescue has been theoretically studied from mathematical models in both deterministic and stochastic environments, focusing on analyzing the persistence and stability of the populations. Here, we evaluate this premise in the framework of a consumer-resource interaction considering the energy investment towards reproduction vs. maintenance as a plastic trait according to positive/negative variation of the available resource. A basic consumer-resource mathematical model is formulated based on the principle of biomass conversion that incorporates the energy allocation toward vital functions of the life-cycle of consumer individuals. Our mathematical approach is based on the impulsive differential equations at fixed moments considering two impulsive effects associated with the instants at which consumers obtain environmental information and when energy allocation strategy change occurs. From a preliminary analysis of the non-plastic temporal dynamics, namely when the energy allocation is constant over time and without experiencing changes concerning the variation of resources, both the persistence and stability of the consumer-resource dynamic are dependent on the energy allocation strategies belonging to a set termed stability range. We found that the plastic energy allocation can promote a stable dynamical pattern in the consumer-resource interaction depending on both the magnitude of the energy allocation change and the time lag between environmental sensibility instants and when the expression of the plastic trait occurs.

How does genetic architecture affect eco-evolutionary dynamics? A theoretical perspective

Recent studies have revealed the importance of feedbacks between contemporary rapid evolution (i.e. evolution that occurs through changes in allele frequencies) and ecological dynamics. Despite its inherent interdisciplinary nature, however, studies on eco-evolutionary feedbacks have been mostly ecological and tended to focus on adaptation at the phenotypic level without considering the genetic architecture of evolutionary processes. In empirical studies, researchers have often compared ecological dynamics when the focal species under selection has a single genotype with dynamics when it has multiple genotypes. In theoretical studies, common approaches are models of quantitative traits where mean trait values change adaptively along the fitness gradient and Mendelian traits with two alleles at a single locus. On the other hand, it is well known that genetic architecture can affect short-term evolutionary dynamics in population genetics. Indeed, recent theoretical studies have demonstrated that genetic architecture (e.g. the number of loci, linkage disequilibrium and ploidy) matters in eco-evolutionary dynamics (e.g. evolutionary rescue where rapid evolution prevents extinction and population cycles driven by (co)evolution). I propose that theoretical approaches will promote the synthesis of functional genomics and eco-evolutionary dynamics through models that combine population genetics and ecology as well as nonlinear time-series analyses using emerging big data.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Genetic basis of adaptation and speciation: from loci to causative mutations’.

Effects of Trichoderma harzianum Strain T22 on the Arthropod Community Associated with Tomato Plants and on the Crop Performance in an Experimental Field

Fungi belonging to the genus Trichoderma have received much attention in recent years due to their beneficial effects on crop health and their use as pest control agents. Trichoderma activates direct plant defenses against phytophagous arthropods and reinforces indirect plant defense through the attraction of predators. Although the plant defenses against insect herbivores were demonstrated in laboratory experiments, little attention has been paid to the use of Trichoderma spp. in open field conditions. In the present study, we investigated the effects of the inoculation of the commercial Trichoderma harzianum strain T22 on the arthropod community associated with tomato plants and on the crop performance in an experimental field located in South Italy. Our results showed that inoculation with T. harzianum could alter the arthropod community and reduce the abundance of specific pests under field conditions with respect to the sampling period. The present study also confirmed the beneficial effect of T. harzianum against plant pathogens and on tomato fruit. The complex tomato-arthropod-microorganism interactions that occurred in the field are discussed to enrich our current information on the possibilities of using Trichoderma as a green alternative agent in agriculture.

Adaptive plasticity in activity modes and food web stability

Natural ecosystems are comprised of diverse species and their interspecific interactions, in contrast to an ecological theory that predicts the instability of large ecological communities. This apparent gap has led ecologists to explore the mechanisms that allow complex communities to stabilize, even via environmental changes. A standard approach to tackling this complexity-stability problem is starting with a description of the ecological network of species and their interaction links, exemplified by a food web. This traditional description is based on the view that each species is in an active state; that is, each species constantly forages and reproduces. However, in nature, species’ activities can virtually stop when hiding, resting, and diapausing or hibernating, resulting in overlooking another situation where they are inactive. Here I theoretically demonstrate that adaptive phenotypic change in active and inactive modes may be the key to understanding food web dynamics. Accurately switching activity modes can greatly stabilize otherwise unstable communities in which coexistence is impossible, further maintaining strong stabilization, even in a large complex community. I hypothesize that adaptive plastic change in activity modes may play a key role in maintaining ecological communities.

Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

The transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how indirect evolutionary rescue—due to the rapid evolution of a predator’s trait—can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats.

Functional diversity buffers the effects of a pulse perturbation on the dynamics of tritrophic food webs

Biodiversity decline causes a loss of functional diversity, which threatens ecosystems through a dangerous feedback loop: This loss may hamper ecosystems' ability to buffer environmental changes, leading to further biodiversity losses. In this context, the increasing frequency of human-induced excessive loading of nutrients causes major problems in aquatic systems. Previous studies investigating how functional diversity influences the response of food webs to disturbances have mainly considered systems with at most two functionally diverse trophic levels. We investigated the effects of functional diversity on the robustness, that is, resistance, resilience, and elasticity, using a tritrophic-and thus more realistic-plankton food web model. We compared a non-adaptive food chain with no diversity within the individual trophic levels to a more diverse food web with three adaptive trophic levels. The species fitness differences were balanced through trade-offs between defense/growth rate for prey and selectivity/half-saturation constant for predators. We showed that the resistance, resilience, and elasticity of tritrophic food webs decreased with larger perturbation sizes and depended on the state of the system when the perturbation occurred. Importantly, we found that a more diverse food web was generally more resistant and resilient but its elasticity was context-dependent. Particularly, functional diversity reduced the probability of a regime shift toward a non-desirable alternative state. The basal-intermediate interaction consistently determined the robustness against a nutrient pulse despite the complex influence of the shape and type of the dynamical attractors. This relationship was strongly influenced by the diversity present and the third trophic level. Overall, using a food web model of realistic complexity, this study confirms the destructive potential of the positive feedback loop between biodiversity loss and robustness, by uncovering mechanisms leading to a decrease in resistance, resilience, and potentially elasticity as functional diversity declines.

Top predators govern multitrophic diversity effects in tritrophic food webs

It is well known that functional diversity strongly affects ecosystem functioning. However, even in rather simple model communities consisting of only two or, at best, three trophic levels, the relationship between multitrophic functional diversity and ecosystem functioning appears difficult to generalize, because of its high contextuality. In this study, we considered several differently structured tritrophic food webs, in which the amount of functional diversity was varied independently on each trophic level. To achieve generalizable results, largely independent of parametrization, we examined the outcomes of 128,000 parameter combinations sampled from ecologically plausible intervals, with each tested for 200 randomly sampled initial conditions. Analysis of our data was done by training a random forest model. This method enables the identification of complex patterns in the data through partial dependence graphs, and the comparison of the relative influence of model parameters, including the degree of diversity, on food-web properties. We found that bottom-up and top-down effects cascade simultaneously throughout the food web, intimately linking the effects of functional diversity of any trophic level to the amount of diversity of other trophic levels, which may explain the difficulty in unifying results from previous studies. Strikingly, only with high diversity throughout the whole food web, different interactions synergize to ensure efficient exploitation of the available nutrients and efficient biomass transfer to higher trophic levels, ultimately leading to a high biomass and production on the top level. The temporal variation of biomass showed a more complex pattern with increasing multitrophic diversity: while the system initially became less variable, eventually the temporal variation rose again because of the increasingly complex dynamical patterns. Importantly, top predator diversity and food-web parameters affecting the top trophic level were of highest importance to determine the biomass and temporal variability of any trophic level. Overall, our study reveals that the mechanisms by which diversity influences ecosystem functioning are affected by every part of the food web, hampering the extrapolation of insights from simple monotrophic or bitrophic systems to complex natural food webs.

Evolutionary rescue in host-pathogen systems

Natural populations encounter a variety of threats that can increase their risk of extinction. Populations can avoid extinction through evolutionary rescue (ER), which occurs when an adaptive, genetic response to selection allows a population to recover from an environmental change that would otherwise cause extinction. While the traditional framework for ER was developed with abiotic risk factors in mind, ER may also occur in response to a biotic source of demographic change, such as the introduction of a novel pathogen. We first describe how ER in response to a pathogen differs from the traditional ER framework; density-dependent transmission, pathogen evolution, and pathogen extinction can change the strength of selection imposed by a pathogen and make host population persistence more likely. We also discuss several variables that affect traditional ER (abundance, genetic diversity, population connectivity, and community composition) that also directly affect disease risk resulting in diverse outcomes for ER in host-pathogen systems. Thus, generalizations developed in studies of traditional ER may not be relevant for ER in response to the introduction of a pathogen. Incorporating pathogens into the framework of ER will lead to a better understanding of how and when populations can avoid extinction in response to novel pathogens.

Low potential for evolutionary rescue from climate change in a tropical fish

Climate change is increasing global temperatures and intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme heat waves. How organisms will cope with these changes depends on their inherent thermal tolerance, acclimation capacity, and ability for evolutionary adaptation. Yet, the potential for adaptation of upper thermal tolerance in vertebrates is largely unknown. We artificially selected offspring from wild-caught zebrafish (Danio rerio) to increase (Up-selected) or decrease (Down-selected) upper thermal tolerance over six generations. Selection to increase upper thermal tolerance was also performed on warm-acclimated fish to test whether plasticity in the form of inducible warm tolerance also evolved. Upper thermal tolerance responded to selection in the predicted directions. However, compared to the control lines, the response was stronger in the Down-selected than in the Up-selected lines in which evolution toward higher upper thermal tolerance was slow (0.04 ± 0.008 °C per generation). Furthermore, the scope for plasticity resulting from warm acclimation decreased in the Up-selected lines. These results suggest the existence of a hard limit in upper thermal tolerance. Considering the rate at which global temperatures are increasing, the observed rates of adaptation and the possible hard limit in upper thermal tolerance suggest a low potential for evolutionary rescue in tropical fish living at the edge of their thermal limits.

Evolutionary Rescue Is Mediated by the History of Selection and Dispersal in Diversifying Metacommunities

Rapid evolution can sometimes prevent population extirpation in stressful environments, but the conditions leading to “evolutionary rescue” in metacommunities are unclear. Here we studied the eco-evolutionary response of microbial metacommunities adapting to selection by the antibiotic streptomycin. Our experiment tested how the history of antibiotic selection and contrasting modes of dispersal influenced diversification and subsequent evolutionary rescue in microbial metacommunities undergoing adaptive radiation. We first tracked the change in diversity and density of Pseudomonas fluorescens morphotypes selected on a gradient of antibiotic stress. We then examined the recovery of these metacommunities following abrupt application of a high concentration of streptomycin lethal to the ancestral organisms. We show that dispersal increases diversity within the stressed metacommunities, that exposure to stress alters diversification dynamics, and that community composition, dispersal, and past exposure to stress mediate the speed at which evolutionary rescue occurs, but not the final outcome of recovery in abundance and diversity. These findings extend recent experiments on evolutionary rescue to the case of metacommunities undergoing adaptive diversification, and should motivate new theory on this question. Our findings are also relevant to evolutionary conservation biology and research on antimicrobial resistance.

Community rescue in experimental phytoplankton communities facing severe herbicide pollution

Community rescue occurs when ecological or evolutionary processes restore positive growth in a highly stressful environment that was lethal to the community in its ancestral form, thus averting biomass collapse in a deteriorating environment. Laboratory evidence suggests that community rescue is most likely in high-biomass communities that have previously experienced moderate doses of sublethal stress. We assessed this result under more natural conditions, in a mesocosm experiment with phytoplankton communities exposed to the ubiquitous herbicide glyphosate. We tested whether community biomass and prior herbicide exposure would facilitate community rescue after severe contamination. We found that prior exposure to glyphosate was a very strong predictor of the rescue outcome, while high community biomass was not. Furthermore, although glyphosate had negative effects on diversity, it did not influence community composition significantly, suggesting a modest role for genus sorting in this rescue process. Our results expand the scope of community rescue theory to complex ecosystems and confirm that prior stress exposure is a key predictor of rescue.

Evolutionary Rescue from a Wave of Biological Invasion

Evolution can potentially rescue populations from being driven extinct by biological invasions, but predictions for this occurrence are generally lacking. Here I derive theoretical predictions for evolutionary rescue of a resident population experiencing invasion from an introduced competitor that spreads over its introduced range as a traveling spatial wave that displaces residents. I compare the likelihood of evolutionary rescue from invasion for two modes of competition: exploitation and interference competition. I find that, all else equal, evolutionary rescue is less effective at preventing extinction caused by interference-driven invasions than by exploitation-driven invasions. Rescue from interference-driven invasions is, surprisingly, independent of invader dispersal rate or the speed of invasion and is more weakly dependent on range size than in the exploitation-driven case. In contrast, rescue from exploitation-driven invasions strongly depends on range size and is less likely during fast invasions. The results presented here have potential applications for conserving endemic species from nonnative invaders and for ensuring extinction of pests using intentionally introduced biocontrol agents.

Eco-evolutionary community turnover following environmental change

Co-occurring species often differ in intraspecific genetic diversity, which in turn can affect adaptation in response to environmental change. Specifically, the simultaneous evolutionary responses of co-occurring species to temporal environmental change may influence community dynamics. Local adaptation along environmental gradients combined with gene flow can enhance genetic diversity of traits within populations. Quantitative genetic theory shows that having greater gene flow results in (a) lower equilibrium population size due to maladaptive immigrant genotypes (migration load), but (b) faster adaptation to changing environments. Here, I build off this theory to study community dynamics of locally adapted species in response to temporal environmental changes akin to warming temperatures. Although an abrupt environmental change leaves all species initially maladapted, high gene flow species subsequently adapt faster due to greater genetic diversity. As a result, species can transiently reverse their relative abundances, but sometimes only after long lag periods. If constant temporal environmental change is applied, the community exhibits a shift toward stable dominance by species with intermediate gene flow. Notably, fast-adapting high gene flow species can increase in absolute abundance under environmental change (although often only for a transient period) because the change suppresses superior competitors with lower gene flow. This eco-evolutionary competitive release stabilizes ecosystem function. The eco-evolutionary community turnover studied here parallels the purely ecological successional dynamics following disturbances. My results demonstrate how interspecific variation in life history can have far-reaching impacts on eco-evolutionary community response to environmental change.

Trophic structure modulates community rescue following acidification

Community rescue occurs when a community that experiences lethal stress persists only through the spread of rare types, either genotypes or species, resistant to the stress. Rescue interacts with trophic structure because physical stress experienced by a focal assemblage within the community may also be experienced by its predators and prey. In general, trophic structure will facilitate rescue only when a stress has a less severe effect on a focal assemblage than on its predators. In other circumstances, when stress affects prey or has only a weak effect on predators, trophic structure is likely to hamper rescue. We exposed a community of phytoplankton and zooplankton derived from a natural lake to acidification in outdoor mesocosms large enough to support trophically complex communities. Rescue of the phytoplankton from severe acidification was facilitated by prior exposure to sublethal stress, confirming previous results from microcosm experiments. Even communities that have previously been less highly stressed were eventually rescued, however, because their zooplankton predators were more sensitive to acidification and became extinct. Our experiment shows how community rescue following severe stress is modulated by the differential effect of the stress relative to trophic level.

The effects of functional diversity on biomass production, variability, and resilience of ecosystem functions in a tritrophic system

Diverse communities can adjust their trait composition to altered environmental conditions, which may strongly influence their dynamics. Previous studies of trait-based models mainly considered only one or two trophic levels, whereas most natural system are at least tritrophic. Therefore, we investigated how the addition of trait variation to each trophic level influences population and community dynamics in a tritrophic model. Examining the phase relationships between species of adjacent trophic levels informs about the strength of top-down or bottom-up control in non-steady-state situations. Phase relationships within a trophic level highlight compensatory dynamical patterns between functionally different species, which are responsible for dampening the community temporal variability. Furthermore, even without trait variation, our tritrophic model always exhibits regions with two alternative states with either weak or strong nutrient exploitation, and correspondingly low or high biomass production at the top level. However, adding trait variation increased the basin of attraction of the high-production state, and decreased the likelihood of a critical transition from the high- to the low-production state with no apparent early warning signals. Hence, our study shows that trait variation enhances resource use efficiency, production, stability, and resilience of entire food webs.

Co-adaptation impacts the robustness of predator-prey dynamics against perturbations

Global change threatens the maintenance of ecosystem functions that are shaped by the persistence and dynamics of populations. It has been shown that the persistence of species increases if they possess larger trait adaptability. Here, we investigate whether trait adaptability also affects the robustness of population dynamics of interacting species and thereby shapes the reliability of ecosystem functions that are driven by these dynamics. We model co-adaptation in a predator-prey system as changes to predator offense and prey defense due to evolution or phenotypic plasticity. We investigate how trait adaptation affects the robustness of population dynamics against press perturbations to environmental parameters and against pulse perturbations targeting species abundances and their trait values. Robustness of population dynamics is characterized by resilience, elasticity, and resistance. In addition to employing established measures for resilience and elasticity against pulse perturbations (extinction probability and return time), we propose the warping distance as a new measure for resistance against press perturbations, which compares the shapes and amplitudes of pre- and post-perturbation population dynamics. As expected, we find that the robustness of population dynamics depends on the speed of adaptation, but in nontrivial ways. Elasticity increases with speed of adaptation as the system returns more rapidly to the pre-perturbation state. Resilience, in turn, is enhanced by intermediate speeds of adaptation, as here trait adaptation dampens biomass oscillations. The resistance of population dynamics strongly depends on the target of the press perturbation, preventing a simple relationship with the adaptation speed. In general, we find that low robustness often coincides with high amplitudes of population dynamics. Hence, amplitudes may indicate the robustness against perturbations also in other natural systems with similar dynamics. Our findings show that besides counteracting extinctions, trait adaptation indeed strongly affects the robustness of population dynamics against press and pulse perturbations.

Ecological pleiotropy and indirect effects alter the potential for evolutionary rescue

Invading predators can negatively affect naïve prey populations due to a lack of evolved defenses. Many species therefore may be at risk of extinction due to overexploitation by exotic predators. Yet the strong selective effect of predation might drive evolution of imperiled prey toward more resistant forms, potentially allowing the prey to persist. We evaluated the potential for evolutionary rescue in an imperiled prey using Gillespie eco-evolutionary models (GEMs). We focused on a system parameterized for protists where changes in prey body size may influence intrinsic rate of population growth, space clearance rate (initial slope of the functional response), and the energetic benefit to predators. Our results show that the likelihood of rescue depends on (a) whether multiple parameters connected to the same evolving trait (i.e., ecological pleiotropy) combine to magnify selection, (b) whether the evolving trait causes negative indirect effects on the predator population by altering the energy gain per prey, (c) whether heritable trait variation is sufficient to foster rapid evolution, and (d) whether prey abundances are stable enough to avoid very rapid extinction. We also show that when evolution fosters rescue by increasing the prey equilibrium abundance, invasive predator populations also can be rescued, potentially leading to additional negative effects on other species. Thus, ecological pleiotropy, indirect effects, and system dynamics may be important factors influencing the potential for evolutionary rescue for both imperiled prey and invading predators. These results suggest that bolstering trait variation may be key to fostering evolutionary rescue, but also that the myriad direct and indirect effects of trait change could either make rescue outcomes unpredictable or, if they occur, cause rescue to have side effects such as bolstering the populations of invasive species.

The Contemporary Evolution of Fitness

The rate of evolution of population mean fitness informs how selection acting in contemporary populations can counteract environmental change and genetic degradation (mutation, gene flow, drift, recombination). This rate influences population increases (e.g., range expansion), population stability (e.g., cryptic eco-evolutionary dynamics), and population recovery (i.e., evolutionary rescue). We review approaches for estimating such rates, especially in wild populations. We then review empirical estimates derived from two approaches: mutation accumulation (MA) and additive genetic variance in fitness (IAw). MA studies inform how selection counters genetic degradation arising from deleterious mutations, typically generating estimates of <1% per generation. IAw studies provide an integrated prediction of proportional change per generation, nearly always generating estimates of <20% and, more typically, <10%. Overall, considerable, but not unlimited, evolutionary potential exists in populations facing detrimental environmental or genetic change. However, further studies with diverse methods and species are required for more robust and general insights.

Phenotypic plasticity in Drosophila cactophilic species: the effect of competition, density, and breeding sites

Changes in the environmental conditions experienced by naturally occurring populations are frequently accompanied by changes in adaptive traits allowing the organism to cope with environmental unpredictability. Phenotypic plasticity is a major aspect of adaptation and it has been involved in population dynamics of interacting species. In this study, phenotypic plasticity (i.e., environmental sensitivity) of morphological adaptive traits were analyzed in the cactophilic species Drosophila buzzatii and Drosophila koepferae (Diptera: Drosophilidae) considering the effect of crowding conditions (low and high density), type of competition (intraspecific and interspecific competition) and cacti hosts (Opuntia and Columnar cacti). All traits (wing length, wing width, thorax length, wing loading and wing aspect) showed significant variation for each environmental factor considered in both Drosophila species. The phenotypic plasticity pattern observed for each trait was different within and between these cactophilic Drosophila species depending on the environmental factor analyzed suggesting that body size-related traits respond almost independently to environmental heterogeneity. The effects of ecological factors analyzed in this study are discussed in order to elucidate the causal factors investigated (type of competition, crowding conditions and alternative host) affecting the election of the breeding site and/or the range of distribution of these cactophilic species.

Evolution of phenotypic plasticity in extreme environments

Phenotypic plasticity, if adaptive, may allow species to counter the detrimental effects of extreme conditions, but the infrequent occurrence of extreme environments and/or their restriction to low-quality habitats within a species range means that they exert little direct selection on reaction norms. Plasticity could, therefore, be maladaptive under extreme environments, unless genetic correlations are strong between extreme and non-extreme environmental states, and the optimum phenotype changes smoothly with the environment. Empirical evidence suggests that populations and species from more variable environments show higher levels of plasticity that might preadapt them to extremes, but genetic variance for plastic responses can also be low, and genetic variation may not be expressed for some classes of traits under extreme conditions. Much of the empirical literature on plastic responses to extremes has not yet been linked to ecologically relevant conditions, such as asymmetrical fluctuations in the case of temperature extremes. Nevertheless, evolved plastic responses are likely to be important for natural and agricultural species increasingly exposed to climate extremes, and there is an urgent need to collect empirical information and link this to model predictions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.

Thermal tolerance in the keystone species Daphnia magna-a candidate gene and an outlier analysis approach

Changes in temperature have occurred throughout Earth's history. However, current warming trends exacerbated by human activities impose severe and rapid loss of biodiversity. Although understanding the mechanisms orchestrating organismal response to climate change is important, remarkably few studies document their role in nature. This is because only few systems enable the combined analysis of genetic and plastic responses to environmental change over long time spans. Here, we characterize genetic and plastic responses to temperature increase in the aquatic keystone grazer Daphnia magna combining a candidate gene and an outlier analysis approach. We capitalize on the short generation time of our species, facilitating experimental evolution, and the production of dormant eggs enabling the analysis of long-term response to environmental change through a resurrection ecology approach. We quantify plasticity in the expression of 35 candidate genes in D. magna populations resurrected from a lake that experienced changes in average temperature over the past century and from experimental populations differing in thermal tolerance isolated from a selection experiment. By measuring expression in multiple genotypes from each of these populations in control and heat treatments, we assess plastic responses to extreme temperature events. By measuring evolutionary changes in gene expression between warm- and cold-adapted populations, we assess evolutionary response to temperature changes. Evolutionary response to temperature increase is also assessed via an outlier analysis using EST-linked microsatellite loci. This study provides the first insights into the role of plasticity and genetic adaptation in orchestrating adaptive responses to environmental change in D. magna.

Impact of temperature shifts on the joint evolution of seed dormancy and size

Seed dormancy and size are two important life-history traits that interplay as adaptation to varying environmental settings. As evolution of both traits involves correlated selective pressures, it is of interest to comparatively investigate the evolution of the two traits jointly as well as independently. We explore evolutionary trajectories of seed dormancy and size using adaptive dynamics in scenarios of deterministic or stochastic temperature variations. Ecological dynamics usually result in unbalanced population structures, and temperature shifts or fluctuations of high magnitude give rise to more balanced ecological structures. When only seed dormancy evolves, it is counter-selected and temperature shifts hasten this evolution. Evolution of seed size results in the fixation of a given strategy and evolved seed size decreases when seed dormancy is lowered. When coevolution is allowed, evolutionary variations are reduced while the speed of evolution becomes faster given temperature shifts. Such coevolution scenarios systematically result in reduced seed dormancy and size and similar unbalanced population structures. We discuss how this may be linked to the system stability. Dormancy is counter-selected because population dynamics lead to stable equilibrium, while small seeds are selected as the outcome of size-number trade-offs. Our results suggest that unlike random temperature variation between generations, temperature shifts with high magnitude can considerably alter population structures and accelerate life-history evolution. This study increases our understanding of plant evolution and persistence in the context of climate changes.

Key Questions on the Role of Phenotypic Plasticity in Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics

Ecology and evolution have long been recognized as reciprocally influencing each other, with recent research emphasizing how such interactions can occur even on very short (contemporary) time scales. Given that these interactions are mediated by organismal phenotypes, they can be variously shaped by genetic variation, phenotypic plasticity, or both. I here address 8 key questions relevant to the role of plasticity in eco-evolutionary dynamics. Focusing on empirical evidence, especially from natural populations, I offer the following conclusions. 1) Plasticity is--not surprisingly--sometimes adaptive, sometimes maladaptive, and sometimes neutral. 2) Plasticity has costs and limits but these constraints are highly variable, often weak, and hard to detect. 3) Variable environments favor the evolution of increased trait plasticity, which can then buffer fitness/performance (i.e., tolerance). 4) Plasticity sometimes aids colonization of new environments (Baldwin Effect) and responses to in situ environmental change. However, plastic responses are not always necessary or sufficient in these contexts. 5) Plasticity will sometimes promote and sometimes constrain genetic evolution. 6) Plasticity will sometimes help and sometimes hinder ecological speciation but, at present, empirical tests are limited. 7) Plasticity can show considerable evolutionary change in contemporary time, although the rates of this reaction norm evolution are highly variable among taxa and traits. 8) Plasticity appears to have considerable influences on ecological dynamics at the community and ecosystem levels, although many more studies are needed. In summary, plasticity needs to be an integral part of any conceptual framework and empirical investigation of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Indirect evolutionary rescue: prey adapts, predator avoids extinction

Recent studies have increasingly recognized evolutionary rescue (adaptive evolution that prevents extinction following environmental change) as an important process in evolutionary biology and conservation science. Researchers have concentrated on single species living in isolation, but populations in nature exist within communities of interacting species, so evolutionary rescue should also be investigated in a multispecies context. We argue that the persistence or extinction of a focal species can be determined solely by evolutionary change in an interacting species. We demonstrate that prey adaptive evolution can prevent predator extinction in two-species predator–prey models, and we derive the conditions under which this indirect evolutionary interaction is essential to prevent extinction following environmental change. A nonevolving predator can be rescued from extinction by adaptive evolution of its prey due to a trade-off for the prey between defense against predation and population growth rate. As prey typically have larger populations and shorter generations than their predators, prey evolution can be rapid and have profound effects on predator population dynamics. We suggest that this process, which we term ‘indirect evolutionary rescue’, has the potential to be critically important to the ecological and evolutionary responses of populations and communities to dramatic environmental change.

Consumer trait variation influences tritrophic interactions in salt marsh communities

The importance of intraspecific variation has emerged as a key question in community ecology, helping to bridge the gap between ecology and evolution. Although much of this work has focused on plant species, recent syntheses have highlighted the prevalence and potential importance of morphological, behavioral, and life history variation within animals for ecological and evolutionary processes. Many small-bodied consumers live on the plant that they consume, often resulting in host plant-associated trait variation within and across consumer species. Given the central position of consumer species within tritrophic food webs, such consumer trait variation may play a particularly important role in mediating trophic dynamics, including trophic cascades. In this study, we used a series of field surveys and laboratory experiments to document intraspecific trait variation in a key consumer species, the marsh periwinkle Littoraria irrorata, based on its host plant species (Spartina alterniflora or Juncus roemerianus) in a mixed species assemblage. We then conducted a 12-week mesocosm experiment to examine the effects of Littoraria trait variation on plant community structure and dynamics in a tritrophic salt marsh food web. Littoraria from different host plant species varied across a suite of morphological and behavioral traits. These consumer trait differences interacted with plant community composition and predator presence to affect overall plant stem height, as well as differentially alter the density and biomass of the two key plant species in this system. Whether due to genetic differences or phenotypic plasticity, trait differences between consumer types had significant ecological consequences for the tritrophic marsh food web over seasonal time scales. By altering the cascading effects of the top predator on plant community structure and dynamics, consumer differences may generate a feedback over longer time scales, which in turn influences the degree of trait divergence in subsequent consumer populations.

Form of an evolutionary tradeoff affects eco-evolutionary dynamics in a predator-prey system

Evolution on a time scale similar to ecological dynamics has been increasingly recognized for the last three decades. Selection mediated by ecological interactions can change heritable phenotypic variation (i.e., evolution), and evolution of traits, in turn, can affect ecological interactions. Hence, ecological and evolutionary dynamics can be tightly linked and important to predict future dynamics, but our understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics is still in its infancy and there is a significant gap between theoretical predictions and empirical tests. Empirical studies have demonstrated that the presence of genetic variation can dramatically change ecological dynamics, whereas theoretical studies predict that eco-evolutionary dynamics depend on the details of the genetic variation, such as the form of a tradeoff among genotypes, which can be more important than the presence or absence of the genetic variation. Using a predator-prey (rotifer-algal) experimental system in laboratory microcosms, we studied how different forms of a tradeoff between prey defense and growth affect eco-evolutionary dynamics. Our experimental results show for the first time to our knowledge that different forms of the tradeoff produce remarkably divergent eco-evolutionary dynamics, including near fixation, near extinction, and coexistence of algal genotypes, with quantitatively different population dynamics. A mathematical model, parameterized from completely independent experiments, explains the observed dynamics. The results suggest that knowing the details of heritable trait variation and covariation within a population is essential for understanding how evolution and ecology will interact and what form of eco-evolutionary dynamics will result.

Evolutionary rescue can maintain an oscillating community undergoing environmental change

The persistence of ecological communities is challenged by widespread and rapid environmental change. In many cases, persistence may not be assured via physiological acclimation or migration and so species must adapt rapidly in situ. This process of evolutionary rescue (ER) occurs when genetic adaptation allows a population to recover from decline initiated by environmental change that would otherwise cause extirpation. Community evolutionary rescue (CER) occurs when one or more species undergo a rapid evolutionary response to environmental change, resulting in the recovery of the ancestral community. Here, we study the dynamics of CER within a three-species community coexisting by virtue of resource oscillations brought about by nonlinear interactions between two species competing for a live resource. We allowed gradual environmental change to affect the traits that determine the strength and symmetry of the interaction among species. By allowing the component species to evolve rapidly, we found that: (i) trait evolution can allow CER and ensure the community persists by preventing competitive exclusion during environmental change, (ii) CER brings about a change in the character of the oscillations (period, amplitude) governing coexistence before and after environmental change, and (iii) CER may depend on evolutionary change that occurs simultaneously with or subsequently to environmental change. We were able to show that a change in the character of community oscillations may be a signature that a community is undergoing ER. Our study extends the theory on ER to a world of nonlinear community dynamics where-despite high-frequency changes of population abundances-adaptive evolutionary trait change can be gradual and directional, and therefore contribute to community rescue. ER may happen in real, complex communities that fluctuate owing to a mix of external and internal forces. Experiments testing this theory are now required to validate our predictions.

Integrating phenotypic plasticity within an Ecological Genomics framework: recent insights from the genomics, evolution, ecology, and fitness of plasticity

E.B. Ford's 1964 book Ecological Genetics was a call for biologists to engage in multidisciplinary work in order to elucidate the link between genotype, phenotype, and fitness for ecologically relevant traits. In this review, we argue that the integration of an ecological genomics framework in studies of phenotypic plasticity is a promising approach to elucidate the causal links between genes and the environment, particularly during colonization of novel environments, environmental change, and speciation. This review highlights some of the questions and hypotheses generated from a mechanistic, evolutionary, and ecological perspective, in order to direct the continued and future use of genomic tools in the study of phenotypic plasticity.

Rapid evolution of quantitative traits: theoretical perspectives

An increasing number of studies demonstrate phenotypic and genetic changes in natural populations that are subject to climate change, and there is hope that some of these changes will contribute to avoiding species extinctions ('evolutionary rescue'). Here, we review theoretical models of rapid evolution in quantitative traits that can shed light on the potential for adaptation to a changing climate. Our focus is on quantitative-genetic models with selection for a moving phenotypic optimum. We point out that there is no one-to-one relationship between the rate of adaptation and population survival, because the former depends on relative fitness and the latter on absolute fitness. Nevertheless, previous estimates that sustainable rates of genetically based change usually do not exceed 0.1 haldanes (i.e., phenotypic standard deviations per generation) are probably correct. Survival can be greatly facilitated by phenotypic plasticity, and heritable variation in plasticity can further speed up genetic evolution. Multivariate selection and genetic correlations are frequently assumed to constrain adaptation, but this is not necessarily the case and depends on the geometric relationship between the fitness landscape and the structure of genetic variation. Similar conclusions hold for adaptation to shifting spatial gradients. Recent models of adaptation in multispecies communities indicate that the potential for rapid evolution is strongly influenced by interspecific competition.

Climate change and timing of avian breeding and migration: evolutionary versus plastic changes

There are multiple observations around the globe showing that in many avian species, both the timing of migration and breeding have advanced, due to warmer springs. Here, we review the literature to disentangle the actions of evolutionary changes in response to selection induced by climate change versus changes due to individual plasticity, that is, the capacity of an individual to adjust its phenology to environmental variables. Within the abundant literature on climate change effects on bird phenology, only a small fraction of studies are based on individual data, yet individual data are required to quantify the relative importance of plastic versus evolutionary responses. While plasticity seems common and often adaptive, no study so far has provided direct evidence for an evolutionary response of bird phenology to current climate change. This assessment leads us to notice the alarming lack of tests for microevolutionary changes in bird phenology in response to climate change, in contrast with the abundant claims on this issue. In short, at present we cannot draw reliable conclusions on the processes underlying the observed patterns of advanced phenology in birds. Rapid improvements in techniques for gathering and analysing individual data offer exciting possibilities that should encourage research activity to fill this knowledge gap.

Climate change in the oceans: evolutionary versus phenotypically plastic responses of marine animals and plants

I summarize marine studies on plastic versus adaptive responses to global change. Due to the lack of time series, this review focuses largely on the potential for adaptive evolution in marine animals and plants. The approaches were mainly synchronic comparisons of phenotypically divergent populations, substituting spatial contrasts in temperature or CO2 environments for temporal changes, or in assessments of adaptive genetic diversity within populations for traits important under global change. The available literature is biased towards gastropods, crustaceans, cnidarians and macroalgae. Focal traits were mostly environmental tolerances, which correspond to phenotypic buffering, a plasticity type that maintains a functional phenotype despite external disturbance. Almost all studies address coastal species that are already today exposed to fluctuations in temperature, pH and oxygen levels. Recommendations for future research include (i) initiation and analyses of observational and experimental temporal studies encompassing diverse phenotypic traits (including diapausing cues, dispersal traits, reproductive timing, morphology) (ii) quantification of nongenetic trans-generational effects along with components of additive genetic variance (iii) adaptive changes in microbe-host associations under the holobiont model in response to global change (iv) evolution of plasticity patterns under increasingly fluctuating environments and extreme conditions and (v) joint consideration of demography and evolutionary adaptation in evolutionary rescue approaches.

Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations

As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species' life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change.

Climate warming and Bergmann's rule through time: is there any evidence?

Climate change is expected to induce many ecological and evolutionary changes. Among these is the hypothesis that climate warming will cause a reduction in body size. This hypothesis stems from Bergmann's rule, a trend whereby species exhibit a smaller body size in warmer climates, and larger body size under colder conditions in endotherms. The mechanisms behind this rule are still debated, and it is not clear whether Bergmann's rule can be extended to predict the effects of climate change through time. We reviewed the primary literature for evidence (i) of a decrease in body size in response to climate warming, (ii) that changing body size is an adaptive response and (iii) that these responses are evolutionary or plastic. We found weak evidence for changes in body size through time as predicted by Bergmann's rule. Only three studies investigated the adaptive nature of these size decreases. Of these, none reported evidence of selection for smaller size or of a genetic basis for the size change, suggesting that size decreases could be due to nonadaptive plasticity in response to changing environmental conditions. More studies are needed before firm conclusions can be drawn about the underlying causes of these changes in body size in response to a warming climate.

Tomato below ground-above ground interactions: Trichoderma longibrachiatum affects the performance of Macrosiphum euphorbiae and its natural antagonists

Below ground and above ground plant-insect-microorganism interactions are complex and regulate most of the developmental responses of important crop plants such as tomato. We investigated the influence of root colonization by a nonmycorrhizal plant-growth-promoting fungus on direct and indirect defenses of tomato plant against aphids. The multitrophic system included the plant Solanum lycopersicum ('San Marzano nano'), the root-associated biocontrol fungus Trichoderma longibrachiatum strain MK1, the aphid Macrosiphum euphorbiae (a tomato pest), the aphid parasitoid Aphidius ervi, and the aphid predator Macrolophus pygmaeus. Laboratory bioassays were performed to assess the effect of T. longibrachiatum MK1, interacting with the tomato plant, on quantity and quality of volatile organic compounds (VOC) released by tomato plant, aphid development and reproduction, parasitoid behavior, and predator behavior and development. When compared with the uncolonized controls, plants whose roots were colonized by T. longibrachiatum MK1 showed quantitative differences in the release of specific VOC, better aphid population growth indices, a higher attractiveness toward the aphid parasitoid and the aphid predator, and a quicker development of aphid predator. These findings support the development of novel strategies of integrated control of aphid pests. The species-specific or strain-specific characteristics of these below ground-above ground interactions remain to be assessed.

Evolutionary rescue: an emerging focus at the intersection between ecology and evolution

There is concern that the rate of environmental change is now exceeding the capacity of many populations to adapt. Mitigation of biodiversity loss requires science that integrates both ecological and evolutionary responses of populations and communities to rapid environmental change, and can identify the conditions that allow the recovery of declining populations. This special issue focuses on evolutionary rescue (ER), the idea that evolution might occur sufficiently fast to arrest population decline and allow population recovery before extinction ensues. ER emphasizes a shift to a perspective on evolutionary dynamics that focuses on short time-scales, genetic variants of large effects and absolute rather than relative fitness. The contributions in this issue reflect the state of field; the articles address the latest conceptual developments, and report novel theoretical and experimental results. The examples in this issue demonstrate that this burgeoning area of research can inform problems of direct practical concern, such as the conservation of biodiversity, adaptation to climate change and the emergence of infectious disease. The continued development of research on ER will be necessary if we are to understand the extent to which anthropogenic global change will reduce the Earth's biodiversity.

How competition affects evolutionary rescue

Populations facing novel environments can persist by adapting. In nature, the ability to adapt and persist will depend on interactions between coexisting individuals. Here we use an adaptive dynamic model to assess how the potential for evolutionary rescue is affected by intra- and interspecific competition. Intraspecific competition (negative density-dependence) lowers abundance, which decreases the supply rate of beneficial mutations, hindering evolutionary rescue. On the other hand, interspecific competition can aid evolutionary rescue when it speeds adaptation by increasing the strength of selection. Our results clarify this point and give an additional requirement: competition must increase selection pressure enough to overcome the negative effect of reduced abundance. We therefore expect evolutionary rescue to be most likely in communities which facilitate rapid niche displacement. Our model, which aligns to previous quantitative and population genetic models in the absence of competition, provides a first analysis of when competitors should help or hinder evolutionary rescue.