Climatic and local stressor interactions threaten tropical forests and coral reefs

Mortality caused by tropical cyclones in the United States

Natural disasters trigger complex chains of events within human societies1. Immediate deaths and damage are directly observed after a disaster and are widely studied, but delayed downstream outcomes, indirectly caused by the disaster, are difficult to trace back to the initial event1,2. Tropical cyclones (TCs)-that is, hurricanes and tropical storms-are widespread globally and have lasting economic impacts3-5, but their full health impact remains unknown. Here we conduct a large-scale evaluation of long-term effects of TCs on human mortality in the contiguous United States (CONUS) for all TCs between 1930 and 2015. We observe a robust increase in excess mortality that persists for 15 years after each geophysical event. We estimate that the average TC generates 7,000-11,000 excess deaths, exceeding the average of 24 immediate deaths reported in government statistics6,7. Tracking the effects of 501 historical storms, we compute that the TC climate of CONUS imposes an undocumented mortality burden that explains a substantial fraction of the higher mortality rates along the Atlantic coast and is equal to roughly 3.2-5.1% of all deaths. These findings suggest that the TC climate, previously thought to be unimportant for broader public health outcomes, is a meaningful underlying driver for the distribution of mortality risk in CONUS, especially among infants (less than 1 year of age), people 1-44 years of age, and the Black population. Understanding why TCs induce this excess mortality is likely to yield substantial health benefits.

Evaluating the coral microbiome during cryopreservation

Coral reefs are threatened by various local and global stressors, including elevated ocean temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change. Coral cryopreservation could help secure the diversity of threatened corals. Recently, isochoric vitrification was used to demonstrate that coral fragments lived to 24 hr post-thaw; however, in this study, they were stressed post-thaw. The microbial portion of the coral holobiont has been shown to affect host fitness and the impact of cryopreservation treatment on coral microbiomes is unknown. Therefore, we examined the coral-associated bacterial communities pre- and post-cryopreservation treatments, with a view towards informing potential future stress reduction strategies. We characterized the microbiome of the Hawaiian finger coral, Porites compressa in the wild and at seven steps during the isochoric vitrification process. We observed significant changes in microbiome composition, including: 1) the natural wild microbiomes of P. compressa were dominated by Endozoicomonadaceae (76.5 % relative abundance) and consistent between samples, independent of collection location across Kāne'ohe Bay; 2) Endozoicomonadaceae were reduced to <6.9 % in captivity, and further reduced to <0.5 % relative abundance after isochoric vitrification; and 3) Vibrionaceae dominated communities post-thaw (58.5-74.7 % abundance). Thus, the capture and cryopreservation processes, are implicated as possible causal agents of dysbiosis characterized by the loss of putatively beneficial symbionts (Endozoicomonadaceae) and overgrowth of potential pathogens (Vibrionaceae). Offsetting these changes with probiotic restoration treatments may alleviate cryopreservation stress and improve post-thaw husbandry.

Cryptic diversity of shallow and mesophotic Stephanocoenia intersepta corals across Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

Population genetic analyses can provide useful data on species' regional connectivity and diversity which can inform conservation and restoration efforts. In this study, we quantified the genetic connectivity and diversity of Stephanocoenia intersepta corals from shallow (<30 m) to mesophotic (30-45 m) depths across Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. We generated single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers to identify genetic structuring of shallow and mesophotic S. intersepta corals. We uncovered four distinct, cryptic genetic lineages with varying levels of depth-specificity. Shallow-specific lineages exhibited lower heterozygosity and higher inbreeding relative to depth-generalist lineages found across both shallow and mesophotic reefs. Estimation of recent genetic migration rates demonstrated that mesophotic sites are more prolific sources than shallow sites, particularly in the Lower Keys and Upper Keys. Additionally, we compared endosymbiotic Symbiodiniaceae among sampled S. intersepta using the ITS2 region and SYMPORTAL analysis framework, identifying symbionts from the genera Symbiodinium, Breviolum, and Cladocopium. Symbiodiniaceae varied significantly across depth and location and exhibited significant, but weak correlation with host lineage and genotype. Together, these data demonstrate that despite population genetic structuring across depth, some mesophotic populations may provide refuge for shallow populations moving forward and remain important contributors to the overall genetic diversity of this species throughout the region. This study highlights the importance of including mesophotic as well as shallow corals in population genetic assessments and informs future science-based management, conservation, and restoration efforts within Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary.

Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Intersection of coral molecular responses to a localized mortality event and ex situ deoxygenation

In July 2016, East Bank of Flower Garden Banks (FGB) National Marine Sanctuary experienced a localized mortality event (LME) of multiple invertebrate species that ultimately led to reductions in coral cover. Abiotic data taken directly after the event suggested that acute deoxygenation contributed to the mortality. Despite the large impact of this event on the coral community, there was no direct evidence that this LME was driven by acute deoxygenation, and thus we explored whether gene expression responses of corals to the LME would indicate what abiotic factors may have contributed to the LME. Gene expression of affected and unaffected corals sampled during the mortality event revealed evidence of the physiological consequences of the LME on coral hosts and their algal symbionts from two congeneric species (Orbicella franksi and Orbicella faveolata). Affected colonies of both species differentially regulated genes involved in mitochondrial regulation and oxidative stress. To further test the hypothesis that deoxygenation led to the LME, we measured coral host and algal symbiont gene expression in response to ex situ experimental deoxygenation (control = 6.9 ± 0.08 mg L-1, anoxic = 0.083 ± 0.017 mg L-1) in healthy O. faveolata colonies from the FGB. However, this deoxygenation experiment revealed divergent gene expression patterns compared to the corals sampled during the LME and was more similar to a generalized coral environmental stress response. It is therefore likely that while the LME was connected to low oxygen, it was a series of interconnected stressors that elicited the unique gene expression responses observed here. These in situ and ex situ data highlight how field responses to stressors are unique from those in controlled laboratory conditions, and that the complexities of deoxygenation events in the field likely arise from interactions between multiple environmental factors simultaneously.

Climate change and anthropogenic activities shrink the range and dispersal of an endangered primate in Sichuan Province, China

The golden snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) is a rare and endemic species in China. The population of golden snub-nosed monkeys in Sichuan Province has an isolated genetic status, large population size, and low genetic diversity, making it highly vulnerable to environmental changes. Our study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of climate and land-use changes on the distribution and dispersal paths of the species in Sichuan Province. We used three general circulation models (GCMs), three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and three land-use change scenarios suitable for China to predict the potential distributions of the golden snub-nosed monkey in the current and 2070s using the MaxEnt model. The dispersal paths were identified by the circuit theory. Our results suggested that the habitats of the golden snub-nosed monkey were reduced under all three GCM scenarios. The suitable habitats for the golden snub-nosed monkey would be reduced by 82.67%, 82.47%, and 75.17% under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, compared to the currently suitable habitat area. Additionally, we found that the density of future dispersal paths of golden snub-nosed monkeys would decrease, and the dispersal resistance would increase. Therefore, relevant wildlife protection agencies should prioritize the climatically suitable distributions and key dispersal paths of golden snub-nosed monkeys to improve their conservation. We identified key areas for habitat preservation and increased habitat connectivity under climate change, which could serve as a reference for future adaptation strategies.

Understanding constraints to adaptation using a community-centred toolkit

Worldwide, marginalized and low-income communities will disproportionately suffer climate change impacts while also retaining the least political power to mitigate their consequences. To adapt to environmental shocks, communities must balance intensifying natural resource consumption with the need to ensure the sustainability of ecosystem provisioning services. Thus, scientists have long been providing policy recommendations that seek to balance humanitarian needs with the best outcomes for the conservation of ecosystems and wildlife. However, many conservation and development practitioners from biological backgrounds receive minimal training in either social research methods or participatory project design. Without a clear understanding of the sociocultural factors shaping decision-making, their initiatives may fail to meet their goals, even when communities support proposed initiatives. This paper explores the underlying assumptions of a community's agency, or its ability to develop and enact preferred resilience-enhancing adaptations. We present a context-adaptable toolkit to assess community agency, identify barriers to adaptation, and survey perceptions of behaviour change around natural resource conservation and alternative food acquisition strategies. This tool draws on public health and ecology methods to facilitate conversations between community members, practitioners and scientists. We then provide insights from the toolkit's collaborative development and pilot testing with Vezo fishing communities in southwestern Madagascar. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

A framework for the detection and attribution of biodiversity change

The causes of biodiversity change are of great scientific interest and central to policy efforts aimed at meeting biodiversity targets. Changes in species diversity and high rates of compositional turnover have been reported worldwide. In many cases, trends in biodiversity are detected, but these trends are rarely causally attributed to possible drivers. A formal framework and guidelines for the detection and attribution of biodiversity change is needed. We propose an inferential framework to guide detection and attribution analyses, which identifies five steps-causal modelling, observation, estimation, detection and attribution-for robust attribution. This workflow provides evidence of biodiversity change in relation to hypothesized impacts of multiple potential drivers and can eliminate putative drivers from contention. The framework encourages a formal and reproducible statement of confidence about the role of drivers after robust methods for trend detection and attribution have been deployed. Confidence in trend attribution requires that data and analyses used in all steps of the framework follow best practices reducing uncertainty at each step. We illustrate these steps with examples. This framework could strengthen the bridge between biodiversity science and policy and support effective actions to halt biodiversity loss and the impacts this has on ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Environmental selection, rather than neutral processes, best explain regional patterns of diversity in a tropical rainforest fish

To conserve the high functional and genetic variation in hotspots such as tropical rainforests, it is essential to understand the forces driving and maintaining biodiversity. We asked to what extent environmental gradients and terrain structure affect morphological and genomic variation across the wet tropical distribution of an Australian rainbowfish, Melanotaenia splendida splendida. We used an integrative riverscape genomics and morphometrics framework to assess the influence of these factors on both putative adaptive and non-adaptive spatial divergence. We found that neutral genetic population structure was largely explainable by restricted gene flow among drainages. However, environmental associations revealed that ecological variables had a similar power to explain overall genetic variation, and greater power to explain body shape variation, than the included neutral covariables. Hydrological and thermal variables were the strongest environmental predictors and were correlated with traits previously linked to heritable habitat-associated dimorphism in rainbowfishes. In addition, climate-associated genetic variation was significantly associated with morphology, supporting heritability of shape variation. These results support the inference of evolved functional differences among localities, and the importance of hydroclimate in early stages of diversification. We expect that substantial evolutionary responses will be required in tropical rainforest endemics to mitigate local fitness losses due to changing climates.

Larval and adult diet affect phenotypic plasticity in thermal tolerance of the marula fly, Ceratitis cosyra (Walker) (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Introduction

Temperature fluctuations are important for the distribution and survival of insects. Rapid hardening, a type of phenotypic plasticity, is an adaptation that can help individuals better tolerate lethal temperatures because of earlier exposure to a sublethal but stressful temperature. Nutrition and sex are also known to influence a species ability to tolerate thermal stress. This study determined the effects of larval diet, adult diet, sex and hardening on the thermal tolerance of Ceratitis cosyra (Walker) (Diptera: Tephritidae) at lower and upper lethal temperatures.

Methods

Larvae were raised on either an 8% torula yeast (high) or a 1% torula yeast (low) larval diet and then introduced to one of three dietary regimes as adults for thermal tolerance and hardening assays: no adult diet, sugar only, or sugar and hydrolysed yeast diet. Flies of known weight were then either heat- or cold-hardened for 2 hours before being exposed to a potentially lethal high or low temperature, respectively.

Results

Both nutrition and hardening as well as their interaction affected C. cosyra tolerance of stressful temperatures. However, this interaction was dependent on the type of stress, with nutrient restriction and possible adult dietary compensation resulting in improved cold temperature resistance only.

Discussion

The ability of the insect to both compensate for a low protein larval diet and undergo rapid cold hardening after a brief exposure to sublethal cold temperatures even when both the larva and the subsequent adult fed on low protein diets indicates that C. cosyra have a better chance of survival in environments with extreme temperature variability, particularly at low temperatures. However, there appears to be limitations to the ability of C. cosyra to cold harden and the species may be more at risk from long term chronic effects than from any exposure to acute thermal stress.

Dung beetles from two sustainable-use protected forests in the Brazilian Amazon

Background

The Amazon Forest is one of the world's most biodiverse ecosystems and yet its protected areas are understudied concerning insects and other invertebrates. These organisms are essential for tropical forests due to their ecological processes, with some species being very sensitive to habitat disturbances. Dung beetles (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Scarabaeinae) have been used as bioindicators for more than 30 years and were surveyed to assess the insect biodiversity of two sustainable-use forest reserves in the Brazilian Amazon.

New information

We report inventories of dung beetles from two Amazonian forest reserves in Pará State, Brazil: the Tapajós National Forest and the Carajás National Forest. Surveys were carried out with baited-pitfall traps installed in 2010, 2016, 2017 and 2019. We collected a total of 3,772 individuals from 19 genera and 96 species. We highlight the importance of Amazonian protected areas as refugia for insect biodiversity, particularly dung beetles, which contribute to many key ecosystem processes.

Linking land-use and land-cover transitions to their ecological impact in the Amazon

Human activities pose a major threat to tropical forest biodiversity and ecosystem services. Although the impacts of deforestation are well studied, multiple land-use and land-cover transitions (LULCTs) occur in tropical landscapes, and we do not know how LULCTs differ in their rates or impacts on key ecosystem components. Here, we quantified the impacts of 18 LULCTs on three ecosystem components (biodiversity, carbon, and soil), based on 18 variables collected from 310 sites in the Brazilian Amazon. Across all LULCTs, biodiversity was the most affected ecosystem component, followed by carbon stocks, but the magnitude of change differed widely among LULCTs and individual variables. Forest clearance for pasture was the most prevalent and high-impact transition, but we also identified other LULCTs with high impact but lower prevalence (e.g., forest to agriculture). Our study demonstrates the importance of considering multiple ecosystem components and LULCTs to understand the consequences of human activities in tropical landscapes.

Determining the role of climate change in India's past forest loss

Tropical forests in India have declined at an alarming rate over the past century, with extensive literature focusing on the high contributions of agricultural expansions to deforestation, while the effects of climate change have largely been overlooked. Climate change effects, such as increasing temperatures, drought and flooding, have already occurred, and are projected to worsen. Climate velocity, a metric that accounts for spatial heterogeneity in climate, can help identify contiguous areas under greater climate stress and potential climate refuges in addition to traditional temporal trends. Here, we examined the relative contribution of climate changes to forest loss in India during the period 2001-2018, at two spatial (regional and national) and two temporal (seasonal and annual) scales. This includes, for the first time, a characterization of climate velocity in the country. Our findings show that annual forest loss increased substantially over the 17-year period examined (2001-2018), with the majority of forest loss occurring in the Northeast region. Decreases in temporal trends of temperature and precipitation were most associated with forest losses, but there was large spatial and seasonal variation in the relationship. In every region except the Northeast, forest losses were correlated with faster velocities of at least one climate variable but overlapping areas of high velocities were rare. Our findings indicate that climate changes have played an important role in India's past forest loss, but likely remain secondary to other factors at present. We stress concern for climates velocities recorded in the country, reaching 97 km year-1 , and highlight that understanding the different regional and seasonal relationships between climatic conditions and forest distributions will be key to effective protection of the country's remaining forests as climate change accelerates.

Portfolio effects and functional redundancy contribute to the maintenance of octocoral forests on Caribbean reefs

Declines in abundance of scleractinian corals on shallow Caribbean reefs have left many reefs dominated by forests of arborescent octocorals. The ecological mechanisms favoring their persistence require exploration. We quantified octocoral communities from 2014 to 2019 at two sites in St. John, US Virgin Islands, and evaluated their dynamics to assess whether portfolio effects might contribute to their resilience. Octocorals were identified to species, or species complexes, and their abundances and heights were measured, with height² serving as a biomass proxy. Annual variation in abundance was asynchronous among species, except when they responded in similar ways to hurricanes in September 2017. Multivariate changes in octocoral communities, viewed in 2-dimensional ordinations, were similar between sites, but analyses based on density differed from those based on the biomass proxy. On the density scale, variation in the community composed of all octocoral species was indistinguishable from that quantified with subsets of 6–10 of the octocoral species at one of the two sites, identifying structural redundancy in the response of the community. Conservation of the relative colony size-frequency structure, combined with temporal changes in the species represented by the tallest colonies, suggests that portfolio effects and functional redundancy stabilize the vertical structure and canopy in these tropical octocoral forests.

Individual-based eco-evolutionary models for understanding adaptation in changing seas

As climate change threatens species' persistence, predicting the potential for species to adapt to rapidly changing environments is imperative for the development of effective conservation strategies. Eco-evolutionary individual-based models (IBMs) can be useful tools for achieving this objective. We performed a literature review to identify studies that apply these tools in marine systems. Our survey suggested that this is an emerging area of research fuelled in part by developments in modelling frameworks that allow simulation of increasingly complex ecological, genetic and demographic processes. The studies we identified illustrate the promise of this approach and advance our understanding of the capacity for adaptation to outpace climate change. These studies also identify limitations of current models and opportunities for further development. We discuss three main topics that emerged across studies: (i) effects of genetic architecture and non-genetic responses on adaptive potential; (ii) capacity for gene flow to facilitate rapid adaptation; and (iii) impacts of multiple stressors on persistence. Finally, we demonstrate the approach using simple simulations and provide a framework for users to explore eco-evolutionary IBMs as tools for understanding adaptation in changing seas.

Derivation of toxicity thresholds for gas condensate oils protective of tropical species using experimental and modelling approaches

Toxicity thresholds for dissolved oil applied in tropical ocean risk assessments are largely based on the sensitivities of temperate and/or freshwater species. To explore the suitability of these thresholds for tropical habitats we experimentally determined toxicity thresholds for eight tropical species for a partially weathered gas condensate, applied the target lipid model (TLM) to predict toxicity of fresh and weathered condensates and compared sensitivities of the tropical species with model predictions. The experimental condensate-specific hazard concentration (HC5) was 167 μg L^-1 total aromatic hydrocarbons (TAH), with the TLM-modelled HC5 (78 μg L^-1 TAH) being more conservative, supporting TLM-modelled thresholds for tropical application. Putative species-specific critical target lipid body burdens (CTLBBs) indicated that several of the species tested were among the more sensitive species in the TLM database ranging from 5.1 (coral larvae) to 97 (sponge larvae) μmol g^-1 octanol and can be applied in modelling risk for tropical marine ecosystems.

Tracking the impacts of El Niño drought and fire in human-modified Amazonian forests

With humanity facing an unprecedented climate crisis, the conservation of tropical forests has never been so important - their vast terrestrial carbon stocks can be turned into emissions by climatic and human disturbances. However, the duration of these effects is poorly understood, and it is unclear whether impacts are amplified in forests with a history of previous human disturbance. Here, we focus on the Amazonian epicenter of the 2015-16 El Niño, a region that encompasses 1.2% of the Brazilian Amazon. We quantify, at high temporal resolution, the impacts of an extreme El Niño (EN) drought and extensive forest fires on plant mortality and carbon loss in undisturbed and human-modified forests. Mortality remained higher than pre-El Niño levels for 36 mo in EN-drought-affected forests and for 30 mo in EN-fire-affected forests. In EN-fire-affected forests, human disturbance significantly increased plant mortality. Our investigation of the ecological and physiological predictors of tree mortality showed that trees with lower wood density, bark thickness and leaf nitrogen content, as well as those that experienced greater fire intensity, were more vulnerable. Across the region, the 2015-16 El Niño led to the death of an estimated 2.5 ± 0.3 billion stems, resulting in emissions of 495 ± 94 Tg CO2 Three years after the El Niño, plant growth and recruitment had offset only 37% of emissions. Our results show that limiting forest disturbance will not only help maintain carbon stocks, but will also maximize the resistance of Amazonian forests if fires do occur.

Classifying ecosystem stressor interactions: Theory highlights the data limitations of the additive null model and the difficulty in revealing ecological surprises

Understanding how multiple co-occurring environmental stressors combine to affect biodiversity and ecosystem services is an on-going grand challenge for ecology. Currently, progress has been made through accumulating large numbers of smaller-scale empirical studies that are then investigated by meta-analyses to detect general patterns. There is particular interest in detecting, understanding and predicting 'ecological surprises' where stressors interact in a non-additive (e.g. antagonistic or synergistic) manner, but so far few general results have emerged. However, the ability of the statistical tools to recover non-additive interactions in the face of data uncertainty is unstudied, so crucially, we do not know how well the empirical results reflect the true stressor interactions. Here, we investigate the performance of the commonly implemented additive null model. A meta-analysis of a large (545 interactions) empirical dataset for the effects of pairs of stressors on freshwater communities reveals additive interactions dominate individual studies, whereas pooling the data leads to an antagonistic summary interaction class. However, analyses of simulated data from food chain models, where the underlying interactions are known, suggest both sets of results may be due to observation error within the data. Specifically, we show that the additive null model is highly sensitive to observation error, with non-additive interactions being reliably detected at only unrealistically low levels of data uncertainty. Similarly, plausible levels of observation error lead to meta-analyses reporting antagonistic summary interaction classifications even when synergies co-dominate. Therefore, while our empirical results broadly agree with those of previous freshwater meta-analyses, we conclude these patterns may be driven by statistical sampling rather than any ecological mechanisms. Further investigation of candidate null models used to define stressor-pair interactions is essential, and once any artefacts are accounted for, the so-called 'ecological surprises' may be more frequent than was previously assumed.

Coral distribution and bleaching vulnerability areas in Southwestern Atlantic under ocean warming

Global climate change is a major threat to reefs by increasing the frequency and severity of coral bleaching events over time, reducing coral cover and diversity. Ocean warming may cause shifts in coral communities by increasing temperatures above coral's upper thermal limits in tropical regions, and by making extratropical regions (marginal reefs) more suitable and potential refugia. We used Bayesian models to project coral occurrence, cover and bleaching probabilities in Southwestern Atlantic and predicted how these probabilities will change under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). By overlapping these projections, we categorized areas that combine high probabilities of coral occurrence, cover and bleaching as vulnerability-hotspots. Current coral occurrence and cover probabilities were higher in the tropics (1°S-20°S) but both will decrease and shift to new suitable extratropical reefs (20°S-27°S; tropicalization) with ocean warming. Over 90% of the area present low and mild vulnerability, while the vulnerability-hotspots represent ~ 3% under current and future scenarios, but include the most biodiverse reef complex in South Atlantic (13°S-18°S; Abrolhos Bank). As bleaching probabilities increase with warming, the least vulnerable areas that could act as potential refugia are predicted to reduce by 50%. Predicting potential refugia and highly vulnerable areas can inform conservation actions to face climate change.

Algal turf productivity on coral reefs: A meta-analysis

Algal turfs are an abundant and highly productive component of coral reef ecosystems. However, our understanding of the drivers that shape algal turf productivity across studies and among reefs is limited. Based on published studies we considered how different factors may shape turf productivity and turnover rates. Of the factors considered, depth was the primary driver of turf productivity rates, while turnover was predominantly related to turf biomass. We also highlight shortcomings in the available data collected on turf productivity to-date; most data were collected prior to global coral bleaching events, within a limited geographic range, and were largely from experimental substrata. Despite the fact turfs are a widespread benthic covering on most coral reefs, and one of the major sources of benthic productivity, our understanding of their productivity is constrained by both a paucity of data and methodological limitations. We offer a potential way forward to address these challenges.

Assessing Coral Reef Condition Indicators for Local and Global Stressors Using Bayesian Networks

Coral reefs are highly valued ecosystems currently threatened by both local and global stressors. Given the importance of coral reef ecosystems, a Bayesian network approach can benefit an evaluation of threats to reef condition. To this end, we used data to evaluate the overlap between local stressors (overfishing and destructive fishing, watershed-based pollution, marine-based pollution, and coastal development threats), global stressors (acidification and thermal stress), and management effectiveness with indicators of coral reef health (live coral index, live coral cover, population bleaching, colony bleaching, and recently killed corals). Each of the coral health indicators had Bayesian networks constructed globally and for Pacific, Atlantic, Australia, Middle East, Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia coral reef locations. Sensitivity analysis helped evaluate the strength of the relationships between different stressors and reef condition indicators. The relationships between indicators and stressors were also evaluated with conditional analyses of linear and nonlinear interactions. In this process, a standardized direct effects analysis was emphasized with a target mean analysis to predict changes in the mean value of the reef indicator from individual changes to the distribution of the predictor variables. The standardized direct effects analysis identified higher risks in the Middle East for watershed-based pollution with population bleaching and in Australia for overfishing and destructive fishing with living coral. For thermal stress, colony bleaching and recently killed coral in the Indian Ocean were found to have the strongest direct associations along with living coral in the Middle East. For acidification threat, Australia had a relatively strong association with colony bleaching, and the Middle East had the strongest overall association with recently killed coral, although extrapolated spatial data were used for the acidification estimates. The Bayesian network approach helped to explore the relationships among existing databases used for policy development in coral reef management by examining the sensitivity of multiple indicators of reef condition to spatially distributed stress. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:165-187. Published 2020. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Subconscious Biases in Coral Reef Fish Studies

In complex, diverse ecosystems, one is faced with an exceptionally challenging decision: which species to examine first and why? This raises the question: Is there evidence of subconscious biases in study species selection? Likewise, is there evidence of this bias in selecting methods, locations, and times? We addressed these questions by surveying the literature on the most diverse group of vertebrates (fishes) in an iconic high-diversity ecosystem (coral reefs). The evidence suggests that we select study species that are predominantly yellow. Reef fish studies also selectively examine fishes that are behaviorally bold and in warm, calm, attractive locations. Our findings call for a reevaluation of study species selection and methodological approaches, recognizing the potential for subconscious biases to drive selection for species that are attractive rather than important and for methods that give only a partial view of ecosystems. Given the challenges faced by high-diversity ecosystems, we may need to question our decision-making processes.

Landslide Detection with Himawari-8 Geostationary Satellite Data: A Case Study of a Torrential Rain Event in Kyushu, Japan

In this study, we investigated the utility of Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), one of third-generation geostationary satellite sensors, for mapping landslides caused by torrential rain that hit the northern Kyushu area in Japan in the summer of 2017. AHI normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series data had distinctive temporal signatures over landslide areas where the NDVI abruptly decreased after the rain event. The observed changes in the NDVI were linearly correlated with the percent landslide area, the percentage of landslide areas within the AHI pixel footprint, obtained with aerial survey (r = 0.78). AHI 10 min resolution data obtained near cloud-free coverage of the landslide region by the 8th day after the disaster event. This was comparable to the amount of time it took to obtain near cloud-free image coverage with aerial survey, and better than those with the polar-orbiting satellite sensors of Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite, Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager, and Sentinel-2A/B MultiSpectral Instrument. These results suggest that third-generation geostationary satellite data can serve as another useful resource for post-event, region-wide initial assessment of landslide areas after a heavy rain event.

Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions

The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is being experienced in the early twenty-first century is intimately entwined with the health and functioning of the biosphere. Climate change is impacting ecosystems through changes in mean conditions and in climate variability, coupled with other associated changes such as increased ocean acidification and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. At the same time, ecosystems can also assist in the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change. The mechanisms, potential and limits of such nature-based solutions to climate change need to be explored and quantified. This paper introduces a thematic issue dedicated to the interaction between climate change and the biosphere. It explores novel perspectives on how ecosystems respond to climate change, how ecosystem resilience can be enhanced and how ecosystems can assist in addressing the challenge of a changing climate. It draws on a Royal Society-National Academy of Sciences Forum held in Washington DC in November 2018, where these themes and issues were discussed. We conclude by identifying some priorities for academic research and practical implementation, in order to maximize the potential for maintaining a diverse, resilient and well-functioning biosphere under the challenging conditions of the twenty-first century. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.