Evolution of dispersal and mating systems along geographic gradients: implications for shifting ranges

Support for Baker's law: Facultative self-fertilization ability decreases pollen limitation in experimental colonization

PREMISE

The ability to self-fertilize is predicted to provide an advantage in colonization because a single individual can reproduce and establish a next generation in a new location regardless of the density of mates. While there is theoretical and correlative support for this idea, the strength of mate limitation as a selective agent has not yet been delineated from other factors that can also select for self-fertilization in colonization of new habitats. We used known mating-system variation in the American bellflower (Campanula americana) to explore how plants' ability to self-fertilize can mitigate density-dependent reproduction and impact colonization success.

METHODS

We created experimental populations of single individuals or a small number of plants to emulate isolated colonization events. These populations were composed of plants that differed in their ability to self-fertilize. We compared pollen limitation of the single individuals to that of small populations.

RESULTS

Experimental populations of plants that readily self-fertilize produced consistent seed numbers regardless of population size, whereas plants with lower ability to self-fertilize had density-dependent reproduction with greater seed production in small populations than in populations composed of a single individual.

CONCLUSIONS

We experimentally isolated the effect of mate limitation in colonization and found that it can select for increased self-fertilization. We show the benefit of self-fertilization in colonization, which helps to explain geographic patterns of self-fertilization and shows support for Baker's law, a long-held hypothesis in the field of mating-system evolution.

Clinging to the top: natal dispersal tracks climate gradient in a trailing-edge population of a migratory songbird

PURPOSE

Trailing-edge populations at the low-latitude, receding edge of a shifting range face high extinction risk from climate change unless they are able to track optimal environmental conditions through dispersal.

METHODS

We fit dispersal models to the locations of 3165 individually-marked black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) in the southern Appalachian Mountains in North Carolina, USA from 2002 to 2023. Black-throated blue warbler breeding abundance in this population has remained relatively stable at colder and wetter areas at higher elevations but has declined at warmer and drier areas at lower elevations.

RESULTS

Median dispersal distance of young warblers was 917 m (range 23-3200 m), and dispersal tended to be directed away from warm and dry locations. In contrast, adults exhibited strong site fidelity between breeding seasons and rarely dispersed more than 100 m (range 10-1300 m). Consequently, adult dispersal kernels were much more compact and symmetric than natal dispersal kernels, suggesting adult dispersal is unlikely a driving force of declines in this population.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that directional natal dispersal may mitigate fitness costs for trailing-edge populations by allowing individuals to track changing climate and avoid warming conditions at warm-edge range boundaries.

Incorporating plant phenological responses into species distribution models reduces estimates of future species loss and turnover

Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate-sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges. Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel 'phenology-informed' SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology-informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting. When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology-informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes. Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait-based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.

Mating system induced lags in rates of range expansion for different simulated mating systems and dispersal strategies: a modelling study

Mismatches between current and potential species distributions are commonplace due to lags in the response of populations to changing environmental conditions. The prevailing mating system may contribute to such lags where it leads to mating failure at the range edge, but how active dispersers might mitigate these lags using social information to inform dispersal strategies warrants greater exploration. We used an individual-based model to explore how different mating systems for species that actively search for habitat can impose a filter on the ability to colonise empty, fragmented landscapes, and explored how using social information during dispersal can mitigate the lags caused by more constrained mating systems. The mate-finding requirements implemented in two-sex models consistently led to slower range expansion compared to those that were not mate limited (i.e., female only models), even when mating was polygynous. A mate-search settlement strategy reduced the proportion of unmated females at the range edge but had little impact on rate of spread. In contrast, a negative density-dependent settlement strategy resulted in much faster spread, which could be explained by a greater number of long-distance dispersal events. Our findings suggest that even low rates of mating failure at the range edge can lead to considerable lags in range expansion, though dispersal strategies that favour colonising more distant, sparsely occupied habitat patches may effectively mitigate these lags.

Sustained mangrove reproduction despite major turnover in pollinator community composition at expanding range edge

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

How well plants reproduce near their geographic range edge can determine whether distributions will shift in response to changing climate. Reproduction at the range edge can be limiting if pollinator scarcity leads to pollen limitation, or if abiotic stressors affect allocation to reproduction. For many animal-pollinated plants with expanding ranges, the mechanisms by which they have overcome these barriers are poorly understood.

METHODS

In this study, we examined plant-pollinator interactions hypothesized to impact reproduction of the black mangrove, Avicennia germinans, which is expanding northward in coastal Florida, USA. We monitored insects visiting A. germinans populations varying in proximity to the geographic range edge, measured the pollen loads of the most common insect taxa and pollen receipt by A. germinans stigmas, and quantified flower and propagule production.

KEY RESULTS

We found that despite an 84 % decline in median floral visits by insects at northernmost versus southernmost sites, range-edge pollen receipt remained high. Notably, local floral visitor assemblages exhibited substantial turnover along the study's latitudinal gradient, with large-bodied bees and hover flies increasingly common at northern sites. We also observed elevated flower production in northern populations and higher per capita reproductive output at the range edge. Furthermore, mean propagule mass in northern populations was 18 % larger than that from the southernmost populations.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings reveal no erosion of fecundity in A. germinans populations at range limits, allowing rapid expansion of mangrove cover in the region. These results also illustrate that substantial turnover in the assemblage of flower-visiting insects can occur at an expanding range edge without altering pollen receipt.

Drivers of strong isolation and small effective population size at a leading range edge of a widespread plant

Climate change has influenced species distributions worldwide with upward elevational shifts observed in many systems. Leading range edge populations, like those at upper elevation limits, are crucial for climate change responses but can exhibit low genetic diversity due to founder effects, isolation, or limited outbreeding. These factors can hamper local adaptation at range limits. Using the widespread herb, Argentina anserina, we measured ecological attributes (population density on the landscape, area of population occupancy, and plant and flower density) spanning a 1000 m elevation gradient, with high elevation populations at the range limit. We measured vegetative clonal potential in the greenhouse for populations spanning the gradient. We combined these data with a ddRAD-seq dataset to test the hypotheses that high elevation populations would exhibit ecological and genomic signatures of leading range edge populations. We found that population density on the landscape declined towards the high elevation limit, as is expected towards range edges. However, plant density was elevated within edge populations. In the greenhouse, high elevation plants exhibited stronger clonal potential than low elevation plants, likely explaining increased plant density in the field. Phylogeographic analysis supported more recent colonization of high elevation populations which were also more genetically isolated, had more extreme heterozygote excess and had smaller effective population size than low. Results support that colonization of high elevations was likely accompanied by increased asexuality, contributing to a decline in effective population size. Despite high plant density in leading edge populations, their small effective size, isolation and clonality could constrain adaptive potential.

Dispersal and establishment traits provide a colonization advantage for a polyploid apomictic plant

PREMISE

Apomictic plants (reproducing asexually through seed) often have larger ranges and occur at higher latitudes than closely related sexuals, a pattern known as geographical parthenogenesis (GP). Explanations for GP include differences in colonizing ability due to reproductive assurance and direct/indirect effects of polyploidy (most apomicts are polyploid) on ecological tolerances. While life history traits associated with dispersal and establishment also contribute to the potential for range expansion, few studies compare these traits in related apomicts and sexuals.

METHODS

We investigated differences in early life history traits between diploid-sexual and polyploid-apomictic Townsendia hookeri (Asteraceae), which displays a classic pattern of GP. Using lab and greenhouse experiments, we measured seed dispersal traits, germination success, and seedling size and survival in sexual and apomictic populations from across the range of the species.

RESULTS

While theory predicts that trade-offs between dispersal and establishment traits should be common, this was largely not the case in T. hookeri. Apomictic seeds had both lower terminal velocity (staying aloft longer when dropped) and higher germination success than sexual seeds. While there were no differences in seedling size between reproductive types, apomicts did, however, have slightly lower seedling survival than sexuals.

CONCLUSIONS

These differences in early life history traits, combined with reproductive assurance conferred by apomixis, suggest that apomicts achieve a greater range through advantages in their ability to both spread and establish.

Effects of species interactions on the potential for evolution at species' range limits

Species’ ranges are limited by both ecological and evolutionary constraints. While there is a growing appreciation that ecological constraints include interactions among species, like competition, we know relatively little about how interactions contribute to evolutionary constraints at species' niche and range limits. Building on concepts from community ecology and evolutionary biology, we review how biotic interactions can influence adaptation at range limits by impeding the demographic conditions that facilitate evolution (which we term a ‘demographic pathway to adaptation’), and/or by imposing evolutionary trade-offs with the abiotic environment (a ‘trade-offs pathway’). While theory for the former is well-developed, theory for the trade-offs pathway is not, and empirical evidence is scarce for both. Therefore, we develop a model to illustrate how fitness trade-offs along biotic and abiotic gradients could affect the potential for range expansion and niche evolution following ecological release. The model shows that which genotypes are favoured at species' range edges can depend strongly on the biotic context and the nature of fitness trade-offs. Experiments that characterize trade-offs and properly account for biotic context are needed to predict which species will expand their niche or range in response to environmental change.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’.

Understanding the biology of species' ranges: when and how does evolution change the rules of ecological engagement?

Understanding processes that limit species' ranges has been a core issue in ecology and evolutionary biology for many decades, and has become increasingly important given the need to predict the responses of biological communities to rapid environmental change. However, we still have a poor understanding of evolution at range limits and its capacity to change the ecological 'rules of engagement' that define these communities, as well as the time frame over which this occurs. Here we link papers in the current volume to some key concepts involved in the interactions between evolutionary and ecological processes at species' margins. In particular, we separate hypotheses about species' margins that focus on hard evolutionary limits, which determine how genotypes interact with their environment, from those concerned with soft evolutionary limits, which determine where and when local adaptation can persist in space and time. We show how theoretical models and empirical studies highlight conditions under which gene flow can expand local limits as well as contain them. In doing so, we emphasize the complex interplay between selection, demography and population structure throughout a species' geographical and ecological range that determines its persistence in biological communities. However, despite some impressively detailed studies on range limits, particularly in invertebrates and plants, few generalizations have emerged that can predict evolutionary responses at ecological margins. We outline some directions for future work such as considering the impact of structural genetic variants and metapopulation structure on limits, and the interaction between range limits and the evolution of mating systems and non-random dispersal. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Does pollen limitation limit plant ranges? Evidence and implications

Sexual reproduction often declines towards range edges, reducing fitness, dispersal and adaptive potential. For plants, sexual reproduction is frequently limited by inadequate pollination. While case studies show that pollen limitation can limit plant distributions, the extent to which pollination commonly declines towards plant range edges is unknown. Here, we use global databases of pollen-supplementation experiments and plant occurrence data to test whether pollen limitation increases towards plant range edges, using a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis. While there was significant pollen limitation across studies, we found little evidence that pollen limitation increases towards plant range edges. Pollen limitation was not stronger towards the tropics, nor at species' equatorward versus poleward range limits. Meta-analysis results are consistent with results from targeted experiments, in which pollen limitation increased significantly towards only 14% of 14 plant range edges, suggesting that pollination contributes to range limits less often than do other interactions. Together, these results suggest pollination is one of the rich variety of potential ecological factors that can contribute to range limits, rather than a generally important constraint on plant distributions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

Understanding the drivers of dispersal evolution in range expansions and their ecological consequences

Research has conclusively demonstrated the potential for dispersal evolution in range expansions and shifts, however the degree of dispersal evolution observed has varied substantially among organisms. Further, it is unknown how the factors influencing dispersal evolution might impact other ecological processes at play. We use an individual-based model to investigate the effects of the underlying genetics of dispersal and mode of reproduction in range expansions and shifts. Consistent with predictions from stationary populations, dispersal evolution increases with sexual reproduction and loci number. Contrary to our predictions, however, increased dispersal does not always improve a population’s ability to track changing conditions. The mate finding Allee effect inherent to sexual reproduction increases extinction risk during range shifts, counteracting the beneficial effect of increased dispersal evolution. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering both ecological and evolutionary processes for understanding range expansions and shifts.

Why do we pick similar mates, or do we?

Humans often mate with those resembling themselves, a phenomenon described as positive assortative mating (PAM). The causes of this attract broad interest, but there is little agreement on the topic. This may be because empirical studies and reviews sometimes focus on just a few explanations, often based on disciplinary conventions. This review presents an interdisciplinary conceptual framework on the causes of PAM in humans, drawing on human and non-human biology, the social sciences, and the humanities. Viewing causality holistically, we first discuss the proximate causes (i.e. the 'how') of PAM, considering three mechanisms: stratification, convergence and mate choice. We also outline methods to control for confounders when studying mate choice. We then discuss ultimate explanations (i.e. 'the why') for PAM, including adaptive and non-adaptive processes. We conclude by suggesting a focus on interdisciplinarity in future research.

Selfing rate variation within species is unrelated to life-history traits or geographic range position

PREMISE

In plants, populations and species vary widely along the continuum from outcrossing to selfing. Life-history traits and ecological circumstances influence among-species variation in selfing rates, but their general role in explaining intraspecific variation is unknown. Using a database of plant species, we test whether life-history traits, geographic range position, or abundance predict selfing rate variation among populations.

METHODS

We identified species where selfing rates were estimated in at least three populations at known locations. Two key life-history traits (generation time and growth form) were used to predict within-species selfing rate variation. Populations sampled within a species' native range were assessed for proximity to the nearest edge and abundance. Finally, we conducted linear and segmented regressions to determine functional relationships between selfing rate and geographic range position within species.

RESULTS

Selfing rates for woody species varied less than for herbs, which is explained by the lower average selfing rate of woody species. Relationships between selfing and peripherality or abundance significantly varied among species in their direction and magnitude. However, there was no general pattern of increased selfing toward range edges. A power analysis shows that tests of this hypothesis require studying many (i.e., 40+) populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Intraspecific variation in plant mating systems is often substantial yet remains difficult to explain. Beyond sampling more populations, future tests of biogeographic hypotheses will benefit from phylogeographic information concerning specific range edges, the study of traits influencing mating system (e.g., herkogamy), and measures of abundance at local scales (e.g., population density).

History or demography? Determining the drivers of genetic variation in North American plants

Understanding the impact of historical and demographic processes on genetic variation is essential for devising conservation strategies and predicting responses to climate change. Recolonization after Pleistocene glaciations is expected to leave distinct genetic signatures, characterised by lower genetic diversity in previously glaciated regions. Populations’ positions within species ranges also shape genetic variation, following the central‐marginal paradigm dictating that peripheral populations are depauperate, sparse and isolated. However, the general applicability of these patterns and relative importance of historical and demographic factors remains unknown. Here, we analysed the distribution of genetic variation in 91 native species of North American plants by coupling microsatellite data and species distribution modelling. We tested the contributions of historical climatic shifts and the central‐marginal hypothesis on genetic diversity and structure on the whole data set and across subsets based on taxonomic groups and growth forms. Decreased diversity was found with increased distance from potential glacial refugia, coinciding with the expected make‐up of postglacially colonised localities. At the range periphery, lower genetic diversity, higher inbreeding levels and genetic differentiation were reported, following the assumptions of the central‐marginal hypothesis. History and demography were found to have approximately equal importance in shaping genetic variation.

High turn-over rates at the upper range limit and elevational source-sink dynamics in a widespread songbird

The formation of an upper distributional range limit for species breeding along mountain slopes is often based on environmental gradients resulting in changing demographic rates towards high elevations. However, we still lack an empirical understanding of how the interplay of demographic parameters forms the upper range limit in highly mobile species. Here, we study apparent survival and within-study area dispersal over a 700 m elevational gradient in barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) by using 15 years of capture-mark-recapture data. Annual apparent survival of adult breeding birds decreased while breeding dispersal probability of adult females, but not males increased towards the upper range limit. Individuals at high elevations dispersed to farms situated at elevations lower than would be expected by random dispersal. These results suggest higher turn-over rates of breeding individuals at high elevations, an elevational increase in immigration and thus, within-population source-sink dynamics between low and high elevations. The formation of the upper range limit therefore is based on preference for low-elevation breeding sites and immigration to high elevations. Thus, shifts of the upper range limit are not only affected by changes in the quality of high-elevation habitats but also by factors affecting the number of immigrants produced at low elevations.

Spatial variation in the intensity of interactions via heterospecific pollen transfer may contribute to local and global patterns of plant diversity

BACKGROUND

Studies that aim to understand the processes that generate and organize plant diversity in nature have a long history in ecology. Among these, the study of plant-plant interactions that take place indirectly via pollinator choice and floral visitation has been paramount. Current evidence, however, indicates that plants can interact more directly via heterospecific pollen (HP) transfer and that these interactions are ubiquitous and can have strong fitness effects. The intensity of HP interactions can also vary spatially, with important implications for floral evolution and community assembly.

SCOPE

Interest in understanding the role of heterospecific pollen transfer in the diversification and organization of plant communities is rapidly rising. The existence of spatial variation in the intensity of species interactions and their role in shaping patterns of diversity is also well recognized. However, after 40 years of research, the importance of spatial variation in HP transfer intensity and effects remains poorly known, and thus we have ignored its potential in shaping patterns of diversity at local and global scales. Here, I develop a conceptual framework and summarize existing evidence for the ecological and evolutionary consequences of spatial variation in HP transfer interactions and outline future directions in this field.

CONCLUSIONS

The drivers of variation in HP transfer discussed here illustrate the high potential for geographic variation in HP intensity and its effects, as well as in the evolutionary responses to HP receipt. So far, the study of pollinator-mediated plant-plant interactions has been almost entirely dominated by studies of pre-pollination interactions even though their outcomes can be influenced by plant-plant interactions that take place on the stigma. It is hence critical that we fully evaluate the consequences and context-dependency of HP transfer interactions in order to gain a more complete understanding of the role that plant-pollinator interactions play in generating and organizing plant biodiversity.

Dispersal evolution in temporally variable environments: implications for plant range dynamics

Dispersal-the movement of an individual from the site of birth to a different site for reproduction-is an ecological and evolutionary driver of species ranges that shapes patterns of colonization, connectivity, gene flow, and adaptation. In plants, the traits that influence dispersal often vary within and among species, are heritable, and evolve in response to the fitness consequences of moving through heterogeneous landscapes. Spatial and temporal variation in the quality and quantity of habitat are important sources of selection on dispersal strategies across species ranges. While recent reviews have evaluated the interactions between spatial variation in habitat and dispersal dynamics, the extent to which geographic variation in temporal variability can also shape range-wide patterns in dispersal traits has not been synthesized. In this paper, we summarize key predictions from metapopulation models that evaluate how dispersal evolves in response to spatial and temporal habitat variability. Next, we compile empirical data that quantify temporal variability in plant demography and patterns of dispersal trait variation across species ranges to evaluate the hypothesis that higher temporal variability favors increased dispersal at plant range limits. We found some suggestive evidence supporting this hypothesis while more generally identifying a major gap in empirical work evaluating plant metapopulation dynamics across species ranges and geographic variation in dispersal traits. To address this gap, we propose several future research directions that would advance our understanding of the interplay between spatiotemporal variability and dispersal trait variation in shaping the dynamics of current and future species ranges.

Do annual and perennial populations of an insect-pollinated plant species differ in mating system?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Theory predicts that outcrossing should be more prevalent among perennials than annuals, a pattern confirmed by comparative evidence from diverse angiosperm families. However, intraspecific comparisons between annual and perennial populations are few because such variation is uncommon among flowering plants. Here, we test the hypothesis that perennial populations outcross more than annual populations by investigating Incarvillea sinensis, a wide-ranging insect-pollinated herb native to China. The occurrence of both allopatric and sympatric populations allows us to examine the stability of mating system differences between life histories under varying ecological conditions.

METHODS

We estimated outcrossing rates and biparental inbreeding in 16 allopatric and five sympatric populations in which both life histories coexisted using 20 microsatellite loci. In each population we measured height, branch number, corolla size, tube length and herkogamy for ~30 individuals. In a sympatric population, we recorded daily flower number, pollinator visitation and the fruit and seed set of annual and perennial plants.

KEY RESULTS

As predicted, outcrossing rates (t) were considerably higher in perennial (mean = 0.76) than annual (mean = 0.09) populations. This difference in mating system was also maintained at sympatric sites where plants grew intermixed. In both allopatric and sympatric populations the degree of herkogamy was consistently larger in outcrossing than selfing plants. Perennials were more branched, with more and larger flowers than in annuals. In a sympatric population, annuals had a significantly higher fruit and seed set than perennials.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetically based differences in herkogamy between annuals and perennials appear to play a key role in governing outcrossing rates in populations, regardless of variation in local ecological conditions. The maintenance of mating system and life history trait differentiation between perennial and annual populations of I. sinensis probably results from correlated evolution in response to local environmental conditions.

Climate Change Can Drive a Significant Loss of Suitable Habitat for Polylepis quadrijuga, a Treeline Species in the Sky Islands of the Northern Andes

It is predicted that climate change will strongly affect plant distributions in high elevation “sky islands” of tropical Andes. Polylepis forests are a dominant element of the treeline throughout the Andes Cordillera in South America. However, little is known about the climatic factors underlying the current distribution of Polylepis trees and the possible effect of global climate change. The species Polylepis quadrijuga is endemic to the Colombian Eastern Cordillera, where it plays a fundamental ecological role in high-altitude páramo-forest ecotones. We sought to evaluate the potential distribution of P. quadrijuga under future climate change scenarios using ensemble modeling approaches. We conducted a comprehensive assessment of future climatic projections deriving from 12 different general circulation models (GCMs), four Representative Concentration Pathways (R) emissions scenarios, and two different time frames (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Additionally, based on the future projections, we evaluate the effectiveness of the National System of Protected Natural Areas of Colombia (SINAP) and Páramo Complexes of Colombia (PCC) in protecting P. quadrijuga woodlands. Here, we compiled a comprehensive set of observations of P. quadrijuga and study them in connection with climatic and topographic variables to identify environmental predictors of the species distribution, possible habitat differentiation throughout the geographic distribution of the species, and predict the effect of different climate change scenarios on the future distribution of P. quadrijuga. Our results predict a dramatic loss of suitable habitat due to climate change on this key tropical Andean treeline species. The ensemble Habitat Suitability Modeling (HSM) shows differences in suitable scores among north and south regions of the species distribution consistent with differences in topographic features throughout the available habitat of P. quadrijuga. Future projections of the HSM predicted the Páramo complex “Sumapaz-Cruz Verde” as a major area for the long-term conservation of P. quadrijuga because it provides a wide range of suitable habitats for the different evaluated climate change scenarios. We provide the first set of priority areas to perform both in situ and ex situ conservation efforts based on suitable habitat projections.

The dispersal-related traits of an invasive plant Galinsoga quadriradiata correlate with elevation during range expansion into mountain ranges

Detecting shifts in trait values among populations of an invasive plant is important for assessing invasion risks and predicting future spread. Although a growing number of studies suggest that the dispersal propensity of invasive plants increases during range expansion, there has been relatively little attention paid to dispersal patterns along elevational gradients. In this study, we tested the differentiation of dispersal-related traits in an invasive plant, Galinsoga quadriradiata, across populations at different elevations in the Qinling and Bashan Mountains in central China. Seed mass-area ratio (MAR), an important seed dispersal-related trait, of 45 populations from along an elevational gradient was measured, and genetic variation of 23 populations was quantified using inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers. Individuals from four populations were then planted in a greenhouse to compare their performance under shared conditions. Changing patterns of seed dispersal-related traits and populations genetic diversity along elevation were tested using linear regression. Mass-area ratio of G. quadriradiata increased, while genetic diversity decreased with elevation in the field survey. In the greenhouse, populations of G. quadriradiata sourced from different elevations showed a difference response of MAR. These results suggest that although rapid evolution may contribute to the range expansion of G. quadriradiata in mountain ranges, dispersal-related traits will also likely be affected by phenotypic plasticity. This challenges the common argument that dispersal ability of invasive plants increases along dispersal routes. Furthermore, our results suggest that high-altitude populations would be more effective at seed dispersal once they continue to expand their range downslope on the other side. Our experiment provides novel evidence that the spread of these high-altitude populations may be more likely than previously theorized and that they should thus be cautiously monitored.

How Dispersal Evolution and Local Adaptation Affect the Range Dynamics of Species Lagging Behind Climate Change

AbstractAs climate changes, species' ability to spatially track suitable climate depends on their spread velocity, a function of their population growth and dispersal capacity. When climate changes faster than species can spread, the climate experienced at species' expanding range edges may ameliorate as conditions become increasingly similar to those of the range core. When this boosts species' growth rates, their spread accelerates. Here, we use simulations of a spreading population with an annual life history to explore how climatic amelioration interacts with dispersal evolution and local adaptation to determine the dynamics of spread. We found that depending on the timing of dispersal evolution, spread velocity can show contrasting trajectories, sometimes transiently exceeding the climate velocity before decelerating. Climatic amelioration can also accelerate the spread of populations composed of genotypes best adapted to local climatic conditions, but the exact dynamics depends on the pattern of climatic adaptation. We conclude that failing to account for demographic variation across climatic gradients can lead to erroneous conclusions about species' capacity to spatially track suitable climate.

When ecological marginality is not geographically peripheral: exploring genetic predictions of the centre-periphery hypothesis in the endemic plant Lilium pomponium

Background

Quantifying variation of genetic traits over the geographical range of species is crucial for understanding the factors driving their range dynamics. The center-periphery hypothesis postulates, and many studies support, the idea that genetic diversity decreases and genetic differentiation increases toward the geographical periphery due to population isolation. The effects of environmental marginality on genetic variation has however received much less attention.

Methods

We tested the concordance between geographical and environmental gradients and the genetic predictions of center-periphery hypothesis for endemic Lilium pomponium in the southern Alps.

Results

We found little evidence for concordance between genetic variation and both geographical and environmental gradients. Although the prediction of increased differentiation at range limits is met, genetic diversity does not decrease towards the geographical periphery. Increased differentiation among peripheral populations, that are not ecologically marginal, may be explained by a decrease in habitat availability that reduces population connectivity. In contrast, a decrease of genetic diversity along environmental but not geographical gradients may be due to the presence of low quality habitats in the different parts of the range of a species that reduce effective population size or increase environmental constraints. As a result, environmental factors may affect population dynamics irrespective of distance from the geographical center of the range. In such situations of discordance between geographical and environmental gradients, the predictions of decreasing genetic diversity and increasing differentiation toward the geographical periphery may not be respected.

Review: Plant eco-evolutionary responses to climate change: Emerging directions

Contemporary climate change is exposing plant populations to novel combinations of temperatures, drought stress, [CO₂] and other abiotic and biotic conditions. These changes are rapidly disrupting the evolutionary dynamics of plants. Despite the multifactorial nature of climate change, most studies typically manipulate only one climatic factor. In this opinion piece, we explore how climate change factors interact with each other and with biotic pressures to alter evolutionary processes. We evaluate the ramifications of climate change across life history stages,and examine how mating system variation influences population persistence under rapid environmental change. Furthermore, we discuss how spatial and temporal mismatches between plants and their mutualists and antagonists could affect adaptive responses to climate change. For example, plant-virus interactions vary from highly pathogenic to mildly facilitative, and are partly mediated by temperature, moisture availability and [CO₂]. Will host plants exposed to novel, stressful abiotic conditions be more susceptible to viral pathogens? Finally, we propose novel experimental approaches that could illuminate how plants will cope with unprecedented global change, such as resurrection studies combined with experimental evolution, genomics or epigenetics.

Effects of environmental heterogeneity on phenotypic variation of the endemic plant Lilium pomponium in the Maritime and Ligurian Alps

Geographical limits of species’ distributions are assumed to be coincident with ecological margins, although this assumption might not always be true. Indeed, harsh environments such as Alpine and Mediterranean ecosystems may favour high phenotypic variability among populations, especially those in peripheral sites. Floral traits are often found to be less variable and less affected by environmental heterogeneity than vegetative traits because variation in the former may have negative effects on fitness. For this reason, it is important to quantify variation in floral traits and plant fecundity in study range limits. The objective of the study is to examine phenotypic variation and differences in reproduction in endemic Lilium pomponium in the Maritime and Ligurian Alps in relation to environmental variation across its distribution range. In this species, marginal climatic populations occur both in the peripheral and central geographical locations of the distribution range; hence, geographical and ecological gradients are not concordant. Floral trait variation is related to local environmental conditions with an array of interactions among resource availability, potential pollen limitation and population size that are differentially related to floral traits. Contrary to the general expectation, all central and peripheral populations had similar, moderate seed production with each group limited by different factors acting on different stages of the life-history strategy. Our results are in line with the idea that general expectations are confirmed only when its assumptions are met and that the differences in pollination environment along an environmental gradient may not be the main determinant of the distribution limit.

Pollinator dependence but no pollen limitation for eight plants occurring north of the Arctic Circle

Effective interactions between plants and pollinators are essential for the reproduction of plant species. Pollinator exclusion experiments and pollen supplementation experiments quantify the degree to which plants depend on animal pollinators and the degree to which plant reproduction is pollen limited. Pollen supplementation experiments have been conducted across the globe, but are rare in high latitude regions. To fill this knowledge gap, we experimentally investigated the dependence on animal pollinators and magnitude of pollen limitation in eight plant species north of the Arctic Circle in Lapland, Finland. Our findings show that all plant species were pollinator dependent, but not pollen limited. We discuss several mechanisms that might buffer our focal plants from pollen limitation, including plant and pollinator generalization, and attractive plant traits. Our results demonstrate that many plant species north of the Arctic Circle are currently receiving adequate pollinator service and provide a baseline for future comparisons of pollinator dependence and pollen limitation in the Arctic across space and time.

Racing against change: understanding dispersal and persistence to improve species' conservation prospects

Climate change is contributing to the widespread redistribution, and increasingly the loss, of species. Geographical range shifts among many species were detected rapidly after predictions of the potential importance of climate change were specified 35 years ago: species are shifting their ranges towards the poles and often to higher elevations in mountainous areas. Early tests of these predictions were largely qualitative, though extraordinarily rapid and broadly based, and statistical tests distinguishing between climate change and other global change drivers provided quantitative evidence that climate change had already begun to cause species’ geographical ranges to shift. I review two mechanisms enabling this process, namely development of approaches for accounting for dispersal that contributes to range expansion, and identification of factors that alter persistence and lead to range loss. Dispersal in the context of range expansion depends on an array of processes, like population growth rates in novel environments, rates of individual species movements to new locations, and how quickly areas of climatically tolerable habitat shift. These factors can be tied together in well-understood mathematical frameworks or modelled statistically, leading to better prediction of extinction risk as climate changes. Yet, species' increasing exposures to novel climate conditions can exceed their tolerances and raise the likelihood of local extinction and consequent range losses. Such losses are the consequence of processes acting on individuals, driven by factors, such as the growing frequency and severity of extreme weather, that contribute local extinction risks for populations and species. Many mechanisms can govern how species respond to climate change, and rapid progress in global change research creates many opportunities to inform policy and improve conservation outcomes in the early stages of the sixth mass extinction.

Philopatry at the frontier: A demographically driven scenario for the evolution of multilevel societies in baboons (Papio)

The baboons (Papio sp.) exhibit marked interspecies variation in social behavior. The thesis presented here argues, first, that male philopatry is a crucial factor, arguably the crucial factor, underlying the other distinctive features (one-male units, multilevel society) shared by hamadryas and Guinea baboons, but not other species of Papio. The second suggestion is that male philopatry as a population norm was not an adaptation to a particular habitat or set of ecological circumstances but evolved in the common ancestor of hamadryas and Guinea baboons as a response to natural selection in the demographic context peculiar to the frontier of a rapidly expanding population. Other derived features of social structure (male-male tolerance, some facultative female dispersal) subsequently evolved to accommodate male philopatry. The mitochondrial genetic population structure of extant baboons preserves a footprint of the initial expansion of 'modern' Papio. Immediately after the expansion, male-philopatric, multilevel populations with a general physical and behavioral resemblance to Guinea baboons occupied the whole northern hemisphere range of the genus. Behavioral and physical autapomorphies of hamadryas baboons evolved in a subpopulation of this ancestral northern base, in response to a less productive habitat of the Horn of Africa. Subsequently, ancestral olive baboons 'reinvented' male dispersal. They and yellow baboons, another male-dispersing species, then replaced most of the male-philopatric northern populations, by male-driven introgression and nuclear swamping.

Reduced dispersal at nonexpanding range margins: A matter of disperser identity

The evolution of dispersal at range margins received much attention recently, especially in the context of dynamic range shifts, such as those following climate change. However, much less attention has been devoted to study variation in and selection on dispersal at nonexpanding range margins, where populations are often small and isolated, and empirical test is dearly missing. To fill this gap, we tested whether dispersal of an ant-dispersed perennial plant (Sternbergia clusiana) is quantitatively and/or qualitatively reduced toward a nonexpanding range margin. We evaluated plant investment in dispersal structures (elaiosome), seed removal rates, and the relative abundance, activity, and behavior of low- and high-quality seed-dispersing ants in six sites ranging from mesic Mediterranean site to arid site (>600 to <100 mm of annual rainfall, respectively), which marks the southern range margin of the species. In a set of cafeteria and baiting experiments, we found that overall seed removal rates, the contribution of high-quality dispersers, maximum dispersal distance and dispersal-conducive ant behavior decreased toward range margins. These findings agree with a lower investment in reward by range margin plant populations, as reflected by lower elaiosome/seed ratio, but not by variation in the reward chemistry. More than variation in traits controlled by the plants, the variation in ant-seed interactions could be attributed to reduced presence and activity of the more efficient seed-dispersing ants in the marginal populations. Specifically, we found a mismatch between local distribution of potentially effective seed dispersers and that of the plant, even though those dispersers were observed in the study site. Interestingly, although the observed variation in the outcome of ant-seed interactions supported the prediction of reduced dispersal at nonexpanding range margins with small and isolated populations, the underlying mechanism seems to be incidental difference in the seed-dispersing ant community rather than a plant-mediated response to selection.

Long-term research and hierarchical models reveal consistent fitness costs of being the last egg in a clutch

Maintenance of phenotypic heterogeneity in the face of strong selection is an important component of evolutionary ecology, as are the consequences of such heterogeneity. Organisms may experience diminishing returns of increased reproductive allocation as clutch or litter size increases, affecting current and residual reproductive success. Given existing uncertainty regarding trade‐offs between the quantity and quality of offspring, we sought to examine the potential for diminishing returns on increased reproductive allocation in a long‐lived species of goose, with a particular emphasis on the effect of position in the laying sequence on offspring quality.

To better understand the effects of maternal allocation on offspring survival and growth, we estimated the effects of egg size, timing of breeding, inter‐ and intra‐annual variation, and position in the laying sequence on gosling survival and growth rates of black brant Branta bernicla nigricans breeding in western Alaska from 1987 to 2007.

We found that gosling growth rates and survival decreased with position in the laying sequence, regardless of clutch size. Mean egg volume of the clutch a gosling originated from had a positive effect on gosling survival (β = 0.095, 95% CRI: 0.024, 0.165) and gosling growth rates (β = 0.626, 95% CRI: 0.469, 0.738). Gosling survival (β = −0.146, 95% CRI: −0.214, −0.079) and growth rates (β = −1.286, 95% CRI: −1.435, −1.132) were negatively related to hatching date.

These findings indicate substantial heterogeneity in offspring quality associated with their position in the laying sequence. They also potentially suggest a trade‐off mechanism for females whose total reproductive investment is governed by pre‐breeding state.

A Review of the Phenotypic Traits Associated with Insect Dispersal Polymorphism, and Experimental Designs for Sorting out Resident and Disperser Phenotypes

Dispersal represents a key life-history trait with several implications for the fitness of organisms, population dynamics and resilience, local adaptation, meta-population dynamics, range shifting, and biological invasions. Plastic and evolutionary changes of dispersal traits have been intensively studied over the past decades in entomology, in particular in wing-dimorphic insects for which literature reviews are available. Importantly, dispersal polymorphism also exists in wing-monomorphic and wingless insects, and except for butterflies, fewer syntheses are available. In this perspective, by integrating the very latest research in the fast moving field of insect dispersal ecology, this review article provides an overview of our current knowledge of dispersal polymorphism in insects. In a first part, some of the most often used experimental methodologies for the separation of dispersers and residents in wing-monomorphic and wingless insects are presented. Then, the existing knowledge on the morphological and life-history trait differences between resident and disperser phenotypes is synthetized. In a last part, the effects of range expansion on dispersal traits and performance is examined, in particular for insects from range edges and invasion fronts. Finally, some research perspectives are proposed in the last part of the review.

Range edges in heterogeneous landscapes: Integrating geographic scale and climate complexity into range dynamics

The impacts of climate change have re-energized interest in understanding the role of climate in setting species geographic range edges. Despite the strong focus on species' distributions in ecology and evolution, defining a species range edge is theoretically and empirically difficult. The challenge of determining a range edge and its relationship to climate is in part driven by the nested nature of geography and the multidimensionality of climate, which together generate complex patterns of both climate and biotic distributions across landscapes. Because range-limiting processes occur in both geographic and climate space, the relationship between these two spaces plays a critical role in setting range limits. With both conceptual and empirical support, we argue that three factors-climate heterogeneity, collinearity among climate variables, and spatial scale-interact to shape the spatial structure of range edges along climate gradients, and we discuss several ways that these factors influence the stability of species range edges with a changing climate. We demonstrate that geographic and climate edges are often not concordant across species ranges. Furthermore, high climate heterogeneity and low climate collinearity across landscapes increase the spectrum of possible relationships between geographic and climatic space, suggesting that geographic range edges and climatic niche limits correspond less frequently than we may expect. More empirical explorations of how the complexity of real landscapes shapes the ecological and evolutionary processes that determine species range edges will advance the development of range limit theory and its applications to biodiversity conservation in the context of changing climate.

Recent immigrants alter the quantitative genetic architecture of paternity in song sparrows

Quantifying additive genetic variances and cross‐sex covariances in reproductive traits, and identifying processes that shape and maintain such (co)variances, is central to understanding the evolutionary dynamics of reproductive systems. Gene flow resulting from among‐population dispersal could substantially alter additive genetic variances and covariances in key traits in recipient populations, thereby altering forms of sexual conflict, indirect selection, and evolutionary responses. However, the degree to which genes imported by immigrants do in fact affect quantitative genetic architectures of key reproductive traits and outcomes is rarely explicitly quantified. We applied structured quantitative genetic analyses to multiyear pedigree, pairing, and paternity data from free‐living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to quantify the differences in mean breeding values for major sex‐specific reproductive traits, specifically female extra‐pair reproduction and male paternity loss, between recent immigrants and the previously existing population. We thereby quantify effects of natural immigration on the means, variances, and cross‐sex covariance in total additive genetic values for extra‐pair paternity arising within the complex socially monogamous but genetically polygynandrous reproductive system. Recent immigrants had lower mean breeding values for male paternity loss, and somewhat lower values for female extra‐pair reproduction, than the local recipient population, and would therefore increase the emerging degree of reproductive fidelity of social pairings. Furthermore, immigration increased the variances in total additive genetic values for these traits, but decreased the magnitudes of the negative cross‐sex genetic covariation and correlation below those evident in the existing population. Immigration thereby increased the total additive genetic variance but could decrease the magnitude of indirect selection acting on sex‐specific contributions to paternity outcomes. These results demonstrate that dispersal and resulting immigration and gene flow can substantially affect quantitative genetic architectures of complex local reproductive systems, implying that comprehensive theoretical and empirical efforts to understand mating system dynamics will need to incorporate spatial population processes.

Effects of contemporary shifts of range margins on patterns of genetic structure and mating system in two coastal plant species

Species' geographical ranges are often restricted due to niche limitation resulting in geographical isolation and reduced population size at range margins. Under the "abundant center" paradigm, static marginal populations are thus expected to show higher genetic differentiation and lower genetic diversity than core populations. Low mate availability may also drive shifts toward higher propensity for selfing in geographically marginal populations. However, these predictions remain to be validated for contemporary range shifts occurring under current environmental change. This study is devoted to bridging this gap and assesses the spatial patterns of genetic structure and mating system across the geographical range of two coastal plant species characterized by contrasting contemporary range dynamics: the receding myrmecochorous Dune pansy (Viola tricolor subsp. curtisii) and the widespread expanding hydrochorous Rock samphire (Crithmum maritimum). Both species exhibited high propensity for selfing, with indications of inbreeding depression acting at early life stages. In Dune pansy, a biogeographical break was observed between core and marginal populations, with trailing-edge populations showing higher levels of genetic differentiation, reduced genetic diversity, and higher levels of selfing estimated through progeny arrays. In contrast, genetic structuring was weak in Rock samphire and no clear spatial trends were observed in genetic diversity nor in mating system, likely the result of efficient long-distance seed dispersal by sea-surface currents. Our study highlights that key species differences in life-history traits related to dispersal and/or mate limitation modify the expectations of genetic diversity loss and mating system shift in contemporary range-expanding populations, as compared with historical core populations.

The contribution of hybridization to range-wide population genetic structure in a Pacific coastal dune plant

PREMISE

Interspecific hybridization can cause genetic structure across species ranges if the mating system and degree of sympatry/parapatry with close relatives varies geographically. The coastal dune endemic Camissoniopsis cheiranthifolia (Onagraceae) exhibits genetic subdivisions across its range, some of which are associated with shifts in mating system from outcrossing to selfing, while others are not. For instance, strong differentiation between large-flowered, self-incompatible (LF-SI) and large-flowered, self-compatible (LF-SC) populations occurs without much reduction in outcrossing or obvious barriers to gene flow. We hypothesized that LF-SI diverged from LF-SC via hybridization with the predominantly inland SI sister species C. bistorta.

METHODS

We analyzed spatial proximity using 1460 herbarium records and genetic variation at 12 microsatellites assayed for 805 and 404 individuals from 32 C. cheiranthifolia and 18 C. bistorta populations, respectively. We also assayed nine chloroplast microsatellites for 124 and 111 individuals from 27 and 19 populations, respectively.

RESULTS

Closer parapatry was associated with unexpectedly high genetic continuity between LF-SI C. cheiranthifolia and C. bistorta. LF-SI genotypes clustered with C. bistorta exclusive of other C. cheiranthifolia genotypes. Similarly, pairwise F_ST among SI C. cheiranthifolia and C. bistorta, adjusted for geographic proximity, was not higher between heterospecific than conspecific populations.

CONCLUSIONS

The lack of genetic differentiation between LF-SI C. cheiranthifolia and C. bistorta populations, even those located away from the zone of parapatry, suggests that, instead of hybridizing with C. bistorta, LF-SI C. cheiranthifolia is rather an ecotype of C. bistorta that has adapted to coastal dune habitat independent of other lineages in C. cheiranthifolia proper.

Hybridization and geographic distribution shapes the spatial genetic structure of two co-occurring orchid species

Multiple ecological and life-history traits shape the fine-scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS) of a given population. The occurrence in core versus peripheral populations, levels of outcrossing, pollen and seed dispersal, and hybridization are important biological properties that influence the kinship of individuals within populations. We examined spatial genetic structure within 15 populations of Epidendrum fulgens and E. puniceoluteum distributed along a linear gradient of Brazilian coastal vegetation, including both allopatric and sympatric populations where the two orchid species hybridize. We analyzed 581 mapped specimens using nine simple sequence repeat loci, aiming to investigate how geographic distribution and hybridization shape within-population FSGS. A significant increase in FSGS was found towards peripheral populations, compared to core populations. Analysis of short-distance and long-distance components of FSGS identified biparental inbreeding and higher levels of FSGS at peripheral populations, when compared to core populations. In contrast, the relatively high density of reproductive adults in core populations potentially leads to highly overlapping seed and pollen movement, decreasing FSGS. Hybridization was an important factor shaping within-population spatial genetic structure at sympatric sites, decreasing the FSGS observed in parental species. Our results indicate that different ecological forces act in concert to create a gradient of FSGS along species distribution ranges, shaped by extensive levels of intraspecific and interspecific gene exchange.

Selfing ability and drift load evolve with range expansion

Colonization at expanding range edges often involves few founders, reducing effective population size. This process can promote the evolution of self-fertilization, but implicating historical processes as drivers of trait evolution is often difficult and requires an explicit model of biogeographic history. In plants, contemporary limits to outcrossing are often invoked as evolutionary drivers of self-fertilization, but historical expansions may shape mating system diversity, with leading-edge populations evolving elevated selfing ability. In a widespread plant, Campanula americana, we identified a glacial refugium in the southern Appalachian Mountains from spatial patterns of genetic drift among 24 populations. Populations farther from this refugium have smaller effective sizes and fewer rare alleles. They also displayed elevated heterosis in among-population crosses, reflecting the accumulation of deleterious mutations during range expansion. Although populations with elevated heterosis had reduced segregating mutation load, the magnitude of inbreeding depression lacked geographic pattern. The ability to self-fertilize was strongly positively correlated with the distance from the refugium and mutation accumulation-a pattern that contrasts sharply with contemporary mate and pollinator limitation. In this and other species, diversity in sexual systems may reflect the legacy of evolution in small, colonizing populations, with little or no relation to the ecology of modern populations.

How diverse can rare species be on the margins of genera distribution?

Different genetic patterns have been demonstrated for narrowly distributed taxa, many of them linking rarity to evolutionary history. Quite a few species in young genera are endemics and have several populations that present low variability, sometimes attributed to geographical isolation or dispersion processes. Assessing the genetic diversity and structure of such species may be important for protecting them and understanding their diversification history. In this study, we used microsatellite markers and plastid sequences to characterize the levels of genetic variation and population structure of two endemic and restricted species that grow in isolated areas on the margin of the distribution of their respective genera. Plastid and nuclear diversities were very low and weakly structured in their populations. Evolutionary scenarios for both species are compatible with open-field expansions during the Pleistocene interglacial periods and genetic variability supports founder effects to explain diversification. At present, both species are suffering from habitat loss and changes in the environment can lead these species towards extinction.

Multiple introductions and population structure during the rapid expansion of the invasive Sahara mustard (Brassica tournefortii)

The specific mechanisms that result in the success of any species invasion case are difficult to document. Reproductive strategies are often cited as a primary driver of invasive success, with human activities further facilitating invasions by, for example, acting as seed vectors for dispersal via road, train, air, and marine traffic, and by producing efficient corridors for movement including canals, drainages, and roadways. Sahara mustard (Brassica tournefortii) is a facultative autogamous annual native to Eurasia that has rapidly invaded the southwestern United States within the past century, displacing natives, and altering water-limited landscapes in the southwest. We used a genotyping-by-sequencing approach to study the population structure and spatial geography of Sahara mustard from 744 individuals from 52 sites across the range of the species' invasion. We also used herbaria records to model range expansion since its initial introduction in the 1920s. We found that Sahara mustard occurs as three populations in the United States unstructured by geography, identified three introduction sites, and combined herbaria records with genomic analyses to map the spread of the species. Low genetic diversity and linkage disequilibrium are consistent with self-fertilization, which likely promoted rapid invasive spread. Overall, we found that Sahara mustard experienced atypical expansion patterns, with a relatively constant rate of expansion and without the lag phase that is typical of many invasive species.

Temporal and spatial dynamics of competitive parapatry in chewing lice

We synthesize observations from 1979 to 2016 of a contact zone involving two subspecies of pocket gophers (Thomomys bottae connectens and T. b. opulentus) and their respective chewing lice (Geomydoecus aurei and G. centralis) along the Río Grande Valley in New Mexico, U.S.A., to test predictions about the dynamics of the zone. Historically, the natural flood cycle of the Rio Grande prevented contact between the two subspecies of pocket gophers. Flood control measures completed in the 1930s permitted contact, thus establishing the hybrid zone between the pocket gophers and the contact zone between their lice (without hybridization). Since that time, the pocket gopher hybrid zone has stabilized, whereas the northern chewing louse species has replaced the southern louse species at a consistent rate of ~150 m/year. The 0.2-0.8 width of the replacement zone has remained constant, reflecting the constant rate of chewing louse species turnover on a single gopher and within a local pocket gopher population. In contrast, the full width of the replacement zone (northernmost G. centralis to southernmost G. aurei) has increased annually. By employing a variety of metrics of the species replacement zone, we are better able to understand the dynamics of interactions between and among the chewing lice and their pocket gopher hosts. This research provides an opportunity to observe active species replacement and resulting distributional shifts in a parasitic organism in its natural setting.

Extinction risks of a Mediterranean neo-endemism complex of mountain vipers triggered by climate change

Climate change is among the most important drivers of biodiversity decline through shift or shrinkage in suitable habitat of species. Mountain vipers of the genus Montivipera are under extreme risk from climate changes given their evolutionary history and geographic distribution. In this study, we divided all Montivipera species into three phylogenetic-geographic Montivipera clades (PGMC; Bornmuelleri, Raddei and Xanthina) and applied an ensemble ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach under different climatic scenarios to assess changes in projected suitable habitats of these species. Based on the predicted range losses, we assessed the projected extinction risk of the species relative to IUCN Red List Criteria. Our result revealed a strong decline in suitable habitats for all PGMCs (63.8%, 79.3% and 96.8% for Xanthina, Raddei and Bornmuelleri, respectively, by 2070 and under 8.5 RCP scenario) with patterns of altitudinal range shifts in response to projected climate change. We found that the mountains close to the Mediterranean Sea are exposed to the highest threats in the future (84.6 ± 9.1 percent range loss). We also revealed that disjunct populations of Montivipera will be additionally highly isolated and fragmented in the future. We argue that leveraging climate niche projections into the risk assessment provides the opportunity to implement IUCN criteria and better assess forthcoming extinction risks of species.

Causality in Biological Transmission: Forces and Energies

Transmission is a basic process in biology that can be analyzed in accordance with information theory. A sender or transmitter located in a particular patch of space is the source of the transmitted object, the message. A receiver patch interacts to receive the message. The "messages" that are transmitted between patches (eventually located in different hierarchical biological levels) are "meaningful" biological entities (biosemiotics). cis-acting transmission occurs when unenclosed patches acting as emitter and receiver entities of the same hierarchical level are linked (frequently by a vehicle) across an unfit space; trans-acting transmission occurs between biological individuals of different hierarchical levels, embedded within a close external common limit. To understand the causal frame of transmission events, we analyze the ultimate, but most importantly also the proximate, causes of transmission. These include the repelling, centrifugal "forces" influencing the transmission (emigration) and the attractive, centripetal "energies" involved in the reception (immigration). As transmission is a key process in evolution, creating both genetic-embedded complexity-diversity (trans-acting transmission, as introgression), and exposure to novel and alternative patches-environments (cis-acting transmission, as migration), the causal frame of transmission shows the cis-evolutionary and trans-evolutionary dimensions of evolution.

The Snail's Charm

In 2017, The American Naturalist celebrated its 150th anniversary. It was founded as a journal of natural history, yet it developed into an important vehicle of the evolutionary synthesis. During the early years of the journal and through much of the twentieth century, evolutionary theory was developed to explain the history of nature before humankind existed to alter it-when time was expansive and uncommon events, though rare, were frequent enough to effect evolutionary change. Today, with the influence of human activity, dispersal patterns are fundamentally altered, genetic variation is locally limiting in small and fragmented populations, and environments are changing so rapidly that time itself seems limited. How can we use this theory, which was built to explain the past and which depends on an excess of chances and time, to address the challenges of the present and the future when chances are fewer and time seems so short? And does the habit of naturalists to observe, describe, and cultivate a fascination with nature have a place in contemporary science?

The link between selfing and greater dispersibility in a heterocarpic Asteraceae

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Although an evolutionary link between breeding system and dispersibility has been proposed, to date empirical data and theoretical models of plants show contrasting trends.

METHODS

We tested two competing hypotheses for the association between breeding systems and dispersibility in the heterocarpic Hypochaeris salzmanniana (Asteraceae) by using both an experimental approach and surveys over 2 years of five natural populations along an environmental cline with a gradient of pollinator availability.

KEY RESULTS

Hypochaeris salzmanniana produced two types of fruits, beaked (BF) and nonbeaked (NBF), which differ in their dispersal ability. The BF were lighter and had a lower dropping velocity and higher dispersal distance than the NBF. Potential for long-distance dispersal, measured as BF ratio per head, had high narrow-sense heritability. Greater dispersibility and selfing ability were linked at all the scales studied. Both selfed BF and NBF fruits had longer plumes and lower plume loading than outcrossed fruits, characteristics that promote farther dispersal. Natural populations with a higher percentage of self-compatible plants showed a higher BF ratio. Moreover, selfing led to a higher BF ratio than outcrossing.

CONCLUSIONS

The avoidance of inbreeding depression seems to be the most plausible selective pressure for the greater dispersibility traits of selfed seeds. Furthermore, the ability to modulate the BF ratio and thus the potential for long-distance dispersal of offspring based on its selfed or outcrossed origin could be advantageous, and therefore selected, under unpredictable pollination environments that favor higher dispersive selfers, which overcome both pollen limitation and inbreeding avoidance.

Climate change-driven range losses among bumblebee species are poised to accelerate

Climate change has shaped bee distributions over the past century. Here, we conducted the first species-specific assessment of future climate change impacts on North American bumblebee distributions, using the most recent global change scenarios developed in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We assessed potential shifts in bumblebee species distributions with models generated using Maxent. We tested different assumptions about bumblebee species’ dispersal capacities, drawing on observed patterns of range shifts to date, dispersal rates observed for bumblebee queens, and, lastly, assuming unlimited dispersal. Models show significant contractions of current ranges even under scenarios in which dispersal rates were high. Results suggest that dispersal rates may not suffice for bumblebees to track climate change as rapidly as required under any IPCC scenario for future climate change. Areas where species losses are projected overlap for many species and climate scenarios, and are concentrated in eastern parts of the continent. Models also show overlap for range expansions across many species, suggesting the presence of “hotspots” where management activities could benefit many species, across all climate scenarios. Broad-scale strategies are likely to be necessary to improve bumblebee conservation prospects under climate change.

Heterogeneity in local density allows a positive evolutionary relationship between self-fertilisation and dispersal

Despite empirical evidence for a positive relationship between dispersal and self-fertilization (selfing), theoretical work predicts that these traits should always be negatively correlated, and the Good Coloniser Syndrome of high dispersal and selfing (Cf. Baker's Law) should not evolve. Critically, previous work assumes that adult density is spatiotemporally homogeneous, so selfing results in identical offspring production for all patches, eliminating the benefit of dispersal for escaping from local resource competition. We investigate the joint evolution of dispersal and selfing in a demographically structured metapopulation model where local density is spatiotemporally heterogeneous due to extinction-recolonization dynamics. Selfing alleviates outcrossing failure due to low local density (an Allee effect) while dispersal alleviates competition through dispersal of propagules from high- to low-density patches. Because local density is spatiotemporally heterogeneous in our model, selfing does not eliminate heterogeneity in competition, so dispersal remains beneficial even under full selfing. Hence the Good Coloniser Syndrome is evolutionarily stable under a broad range of conditions, and both negative and positive relationships between dispersal and selfing are possible, depending on the environment. Our model thus accommodates positive empirical relationships between dispersal and selfing not predicted by previous theoretical work and provides additional explanations for negative relationships.