Regional impacts of warming on biodiversity and biomass in high latitude stream ecosystems across the Northern Hemisphere

Warming can have profound impacts on ecological communities. However, explorations of how differences in biogeography and productivity might reshape the effect of warming have been limited to theoretical or proxy-based approaches: for instance, studies of latitudinal temperature gradients are often conflated with other drivers (e.g., species richness). Here, we overcome these limitations by using local geothermal temperature gradients across multiple high-latitude stream ecosystems. Each suite of streams (6-11 warmed by 1-15°C above ambient) is set within one of five regions (37 streams total); because the heating comes from the bedrock and is not confounded by changes in chemistry, we can isolate the effect of temperature. We found a negative overall relationship between diatom and invertebrate species richness and temperature, but the strength of the relationship varied regionally, declining more strongly in regions with low terrestrial productivity. Total invertebrate biomass increased with temperature in all regions. The latter pattern combined with the former suggests that the increased biomass of tolerant species might compensate for the loss of sensitive species. Our results show that the impact of warming can be dependent on regional conditions, demonstrating that local variation should be included in future climate projections rather than simply assuming universal relationships.

Significant improvement in freshwater invertebrate biodiversity in all types of English rivers over the past 30 years

There remains a persistent concern that freshwater biodiversity is in decline and being threatened by pollution. As the UK, and particularly England, is a densely populated nation with rivers of modest dilution capacity, this location is very suitable to examine how freshwater biodiversity has responded to human pressures over the past 30 years. A long-term dataset of 223,325 freshwater macroinvertebrate records from 1989 to 2018 for England was retrieved and examined. A sub-set of approximately 200 sites per English Region (1515 sites in total with 62,514 samples), with the longest and most consistent records were matched with predicted wastewater exposure, upstream land cover and terrain characteristics (latitude, altitude, slope gradient and flow discharge). To understand changes in macroinvertebrate diversity and sensitivity with respect to these parameters, the biotic indices of (i) overall family richness, (ii) Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) family richness, and (iii) the Biological Monitoring Working Party (BMWP) scores of NTAXA (number of scoring taxa) and (iv) ASPT (average score per taxon) were selected. A review of how close the BMWP scores come to those expected at minimally impacted reference sites was included. For all latitudes, altitudes, channel slope, river size, wastewater exposure levels, and differing proportions of upstream woodland, seminatural, arable and urban land cover, all diversity or sensitivity indices examined improved over this period, although this improvement has slowed in some cases post 2003. Mean overall family richness has increased from 15 to 25 family groups, a 66 % improvement. The improvement in mean EPT family richness (3 to 10 families, >300 % improvement), which are considered to be particularly sensitive to pollution, implies macroinvertebrate diversity has benefited from a national improvement in critical components of water quality.

The effects of longitudinal fragmentation on riverine beta diversity are modulated by fragmentation intensity

The loss of longitudinal connectivity affects river systems globally, being one of the leading causes of the freshwater biodiversity crisis. Barriers alter the dispersal of aquatic organisms and limit the exchange of species between local communities, disrupting metacommunity dynamics. However, the interplay between connectivity losses due to dams and other drivers of metacommunity structure, such as the configuration of the river network, needs to be explored. In this paper, we analyzed the response of fish communities to the network position and the fragmentation induced by dams while controlling for human pressures and environmental gradients. We studied three large European catchments covering a fragmentation gradient: Upper Danube (Austrian section), Ebro (Spain), and Odra/Oder (Poland). We quantified fragmentation through reach-scaled connectivity indices that account for the position of barriers along the dendritic network and the dispersal capacity of the organisms. We used generalized linear models to explain species richness and Local Contributions to Beta Diversity (LCBD) and multilinear regressions on the distance matrix to describe Beta Diversity and its Replacement and Richness Difference components. Results show that species richness was not affected by fragmentation. Network centrality metrics were relevant drivers of beta diversity for catchments with lower fragmentation (Ebro, Odra), and fragmentation indices were strong beta diversity predictors for the catchment with higher fragmentation (Danube). We conclude that in highly fragmented catchments, the effects of network centrality/isolation on biodiversity could be masked by the effects of dam fragmentation. In such catchments, metapopulation and metacommunity dynamics can be strongly altered by barriers, and the restoration of longitudinal connectivity (i.e. the natural centrality/isolation gradient) is urgent to prevent local extinctions.

Empirical evidence of climate change and urbanization impacts on warming stream temperatures

Climate change and urbanization threaten streams and the biodiversity that rely upon them worldwide. Emissions of greenhouse gases are causing air and sea surface temperatures to increase, and even small areas of urbanization are degrading stream biodiversity, water quality and hydrology. However, empirical evidence of how increasing air temperatures and urbanization together affect stream temperatures over time and their relative influence on stream temperatures is limited. This study quantifies changes in stream temperatures in a region in South-East Australia with an urban-agricultural-forest landcover gradient and where increasing air temperatures have been observed. Using Random Forest models we identify air temperature and urbanization drive increasing stream temperatures and that their combined effects are larger than their individual effects occurring alone. Furthermore, we identify potential mitigation measures useful for waterway managers and policy makers. The results show that both local and global solutions are needed to reduce future increases to stream temperature.

A growing global threat: Long-term trends show cropland exposure to flooding on the rise

Flooding is one of the most widespread and catastrophic natural disasters. The exposure of cropland to floods is directly related to the quality of cropland and food security, so it is particularly important to map the spatiotemporal evolution of this exposure, with a specific focus on longer time series and higher resolution scales. This study is the first of its kind to analyse the worldwide spatiotemporal variability of Cropland Exposure to Flooding (CEF) with the 30 m resolution of Global Land Analysis & Discovery (GLAD) dataset during 2000-2019. The findings indicate that: (1) the global CEF area increased by a total of 83,429.50 km2 or 7.75 %, from 2000 to 2019; (2) only North America's CEF showed a downward trend, and the region with the largest increase in CEF was South Asia; (3) the CEF in 23 river basins, including Ganges, Indus, Mississippi, Yangtze, and Danube, accounted for 79.88 % of the global total in 2019P; (4) in 2019P, China had the largest CEF globally, reaching 239,525.07 km2. The fastest growing CEF was India, contributing 16.36 % of the global CEF growth. The CEF of United States experienced a reduction trend; (5) two constructed indicators were used in evaluating the CEF of countries worldwide, and a total of 46 countries are considered to be at the highest level of risk, mainly in Europe and Asia. Based on these conclusions, we carried out a cold/hot spot analysis to reveal the spatial heterogeneity and possible driving factors in this phenomenon, and we offer management suggestions to limit the risks to cropland in the floodplains.

Cross-continental evaluation of landscape-scale drivers and their impacts to fluvial fishes: Understanding frequency and severity to improve fish conservation in Europe and the United States

Fluvial fishes are threatened globally from intensive human landscape stressors degrading aquatic ecosystems. However, impacts vary regionally, as stressors and natural environmental factors differ between ecoregions and continents. To date, a comparison of fish responses to landscape stressors over continents is lacking, limiting understanding of consistency of impacts and hampering efficiencies in conserving fishes over large regions. This study addresses these shortcomings through a novel, integrative assessment of fluvial fishes throughout Europe and the conterminous United States. Using large-scale datasets, including information on fish assemblages from more than 30,000 locations on both continents, we identified threshold responses of fishes summarized by functional traits to landscape stressors including agriculture, pasture, urban area, road crossings, and human population density. After summarizing stressors by catchment unit (local and network) and constraining analyses by stream size (creeks vs. rivers), we analyzed stressor frequency (number of significant thresholds) and stressor severity (value of identified thresholds) within ecoregions across Europe and the United States. We document hundreds of responses of fish metrics to multi-scale stressors in ecoregions across two continents, providing rich findings to aid in understanding and comparing threats to fishes across the study regions. Collectively, we found that lithophilic species and, as expected, intolerant species are most sensitive to stressors in both continents, while migratory and rheophilic species are similarly strongly affected in the United States. Also, urban land use and human population density were most frequently associated with declines in fish assemblages, underscoring the pervasiveness of these stressors in both continents. This study offers an unprecedented comparison of landscape stressor effects on fluvial fishes in a consistent and comparable manner, supporting conservation of freshwater habitats in both continents and worldwide.

The recovery of European freshwater biodiversity has come to a halt

Owing to a long history of anthropogenic pressures, freshwater ecosystems are among the most vulnerable to biodiversity loss1. Mitigation measures, including wastewater treatment and hydromorphological restoration, have aimed to improve environmental quality and foster the recovery of freshwater biodiversity2. Here, using 1,816 time series of freshwater invertebrate communities collected across 22 European countries between 1968 and 2020, we quantified temporal trends in taxonomic and functional diversity and their responses to environmental pressures and gradients. We observed overall increases in taxon richness (0.73% per year), functional richness (2.4% per year) and abundance (1.17% per year). However, these increases primarily occurred before the 2010s, and have since plateaued. Freshwater communities downstream of dams, urban areas and cropland were less likely to experience recovery. Communities at sites with faster rates of warming had fewer gains in taxon richness, functional richness and abundance. Although biodiversity gains in the 1990s and 2000s probably reflect the effectiveness of water-quality improvements and restoration projects, the decelerating trajectory in the 2010s suggests that the current measures offer diminishing returns. Given new and persistent pressures on freshwater ecosystems, including emerging pollutants, climate change and the spread of invasive species, we call for additional mitigation to revive the recovery of freshwater biodiversity.

The impact of land use on stream macroinvertebrates: a bibliometric analysis for 2010-2021

Changes in stream biodiversity are now mainly driven by land-use development. However, a literature review on the impact of land use on stream macroinvertebrates is lacking, especially a scientometric review. Here, we bibliometrically analyzed the literature on land use and stream macroinvertebrates that were published in 2010-2021 and listed in the Web of Science database. We found that the impact of land use on stream macroinvertebrates had been increasingly studied and that these studies were distributed across the globe and had multi-national collaborations. Through co-citation analysis and high-frequency keyword analysis, we found that land use and some environmental factors, especially water quality and habitat, affected macroinvertebrate community biodiversity, biotic integrity, and patterns. Macroinvertebrate traits, analytical methods or models, evaluation index development, and riparian vegetation were the research hotspots. Using historical direct citation network analysis, we also found that the analytical methods in this field and the macroinvertebrate evaluation index had clear development trends from 2010 to 2021. Our findings can help researchers quickly grasp the background of the impact of land use on stream macroinvertebrates and inform future research.

Integrating simulation models and statistical models using causal modelling principles to predict aquatic macroinvertebrate responses to climate change

Climate change is projected to threaten ecological communities through changes in temperature, rainfall, runoff patterns, and mediated changes in other environmental variables. Their combined effects are difficult to comprehend without the mathematical machinery of causal modelling. Using piecewise structural equation modelling, we aim to predict the responses of aquatic macroinvertebrate total abundance and richness to disturbances generated by climate change. Our approach involves integrating an existing hydroclimate-salinity model for the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, into our recently developed statistical models for macroinvertebrates using long-term monitoring data on macroinvertebrates, water quality, climate, and hydrology, spanning 2,300 km of the Murray River. Our exercise demonstrates the potential of causal modelling for integrating data and models from different sources. As such, optimal use of valuable existing data and merits of previously developed models in the field can be made for exploring the effects of future climate change and management interventions.

The cumulative impacts of anthropogenic stressors vary markedly along environmental gradients

Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on biodiversity is key to managing their impacts. Stressor interactions are often studied using an additive/antagonistic/synergistic typology, aimed at identifying situations where individual stressor effects are reduced or amplified when they act in combination. Here, we analysed variation in the family richness of stream macroinvertebrates in the groups Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) at 4658 sites spanning a 32° latitudinal range in eastern Australia in relation to two largely human-induced stressors, salinity and turbidity, and two environmental gradients, temperature and slope. The cumulative and interactive effect of salinity and turbidity on EPT family richness varied across the landscape and by habitat (edge or riffle) such that we observed additive, antagonistic and synergistic outcomes depending on the environmental context. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the consistency of multiple stressor impacts, which will involve higher-order interactions between multiple stressors and environmental factors.

Keeping it cool to take the heat: tropical lizards have greater thermal tolerance in less disturbed habitats

Global climate change has profound effects on species, especially those in habitats already altered by humans. Tropical ectotherms are predicted to be at high risk from global temperature increases, particularly those adapted to cooler temperatures at higher altitudes. We investigated how one such species, the water anole (Anolis aquaticus), is affected by temperature stress similar to that of a warming climate across a gradient of human-altered habitats at high elevation sites. We conducted a field survey on thermal traits and measured lizard critical thermal maxima across the sites. From the field survey, we found that (1) lizards from the least disturbed site and (2) operative temperature models of lizards placed in the least disturbed site had lower temperatures than those from sites with histories of human disturbance. Individuals from the least disturbed site also demonstrated greater tolerance to high temperatures than those from the more disturbed sites, in both their critical thermal maxima and the time spent at high temperatures prior to reaching critical thermal maxima. Our results demonstrate within-species variability in responses to high temperatures, depending on habitat type, and provide insight into how tropical reptiles may fare in a warming world.

River ecosystem endangerment from climate change-driven regulated flow regimes

Major threats of freshwater systems are river damming and habitat degradation, further amplified by climate change, another major driver of biodiversity loss. This study aims to understand the effects of climate change, and its repercussions on hydropower production, on the instream biota of a regulated river. Particularly, it aims to ascertain how mesohabitat availability downstream of hydropower plants changes due to modified flow regimes driven by climate change; how mesohabitat changes will influence the instream biota; and if instream biota changes will be similar within and between biological groups. We used a mesohabitat-level ecohydraulic approach with four biological elements - macrophytes, macroalgae, diatoms and macroinvertebrates - to encompass a holistic ecosystem perspective of the river system. The ecological preferences of the biological groups for specific mesohabitats were established by field survey. The mesohabitat availability in three expected climate change-driven flow regime scenarios was determined by hydrodynamic modeling. The biota abundance/cover was computed for the mesohabitat indicator species of each biological group. Results show that climate-changed flow regimes are characterized by a significant water shortage during summer months already for 2050. Accordingly, the regulated rivers' hydraulics are expected to change towards more homogeneous flow conditions where run habitats should prevail. As a result, the biological elements are expected to face abundance/cover modifications ranging from decreases of 76% up to 67% increase, depending on the biological element and indicator taxa. Diatoms seem to endure the greatest range of modifications while macrophytes the slightest (15% decrease to 38% increase). The greatest modifications would occur on decreasing abundance/cover responses. Such underlies an important risk to fluvial biodiversity in the future, indicting climate change as a significant threat to the fluvial system in regulated rivers.

Benthic Macroinvertebrate Diversity as Affected by the Construction of Inland Waterways along Montane Stretches of Two Rivers in China

Building inland waterways affects the natural structure, formation, and extent of the riverbed and riparian zone. It alters the hydrology and sediment deposition conditions and hence damages the aquatic ecosystem. To address the effects of the construction of inland waterways on the riverine biome, benthic macroinvertebrate communities were compared at different building stages of inland waterways along a gradient of shipping traffic density at two montane rivers in China. The Shannon–Wiener diversity index of the benthic macroinvertebrate communities ranged from 0.4 to 1.6; the lowest value was recorded in the completed inland waterway, while the highest value was recorded in the unaffected stretch. Principal component analysis and canonical correlation analysis showed the communities in the inland waterways to be distinct from those in the natural riparian habitats. Our results suggest that benthic macroinvertebrate communities can reflect the damage done by the hydromorphological modifications caused by building inland waterways. Benthic macroinvertebrate diversity and abundance should therefore be included when assessing the impact of building and operating inland waterways.

Land Use in Flood-Prone Areas and Its Significance for Flood Risk Management—A Case Study of Alpine Regions in Austria

Increasing flood damage has led to a rising importance of land use in flood risk management policies, commonly referred to as the spatial turn in flood risk management. This includes policies aiming at making space for rivers, which, in practice, lead to an increasing demand for land. Although research has been conducted on the variety of policies, the resulting land use conflicts in flood-prone areas have not been paid much attention to. This paper therefore analyses the current land use and its changes in Alpine flood-prone areas in Austria. The results show that space for rivers has been decreasing due to human activities (e.g., river straightening and channel narrowing) since the middle of the 19th century, and settlements have been expanding into flood-prone areas. Furthermore, the share of valuable agricultural land (which is important for food production) located in flood hazard zones is higher in more mountainous areas. Given the limited space for permanent settlement in Alpine regions, these land use changes exert pressure on the availability of land suitable for flood risk management. Therefore, making space for rivers as part of flood risk management policies faces considerable restrictions in Alpine areas.

Adding climate change to the mix: responses of aquatic ectotherms to the combined effects of eutrophication and warming

The threat of excessive nutrient enrichment, or eutrophication, is intensifying across the globe as climate change progresses, presenting a major management challenge. Alterations in precipitation patterns and increases in temperature are increasing nutrient loadings in aquatic habitats and creating conditions that promote the proliferation of cyanobacterial blooms. The exacerbating effects of climate warming on eutrophication are well established, but we lack an in-depth understanding of how aquatic ectotherms respond to eutrophication and warming in tandem. Here, I provide a brief overview and critique of studies exploring the cumulative impacts of eutrophication and warming on aquatic ectotherms, and provide forward direction using mechanistically focused, multi-threat experiments to disentangle complex interactions. Evidence to date suggests that rapid warming will exacerbate the negative effects of eutrophication on aquatic ectotherms, but gradual warming will induce physiological remodelling that provides protection against nutrients and hypoxia. Moving forward, research will benefit from a greater focus on unveiling cause and effect mechanisms behind interactions and designing treatments that better mimic threat dynamics in nature. This approach will enable robust predictions of species responses to ongoing eutrophication and climate warming and enable the integration of climate warming into eutrophication management policies.

Gaps, biases, and future directions in research on the impacts of anthropogenic land-use change on aquatic ecosystems: a topic-based bibliometric analysis

Anthropogenic land use change (ALUC) satisfies human needs but also impacts aquatic ecosystems. Aquatic ecosystems are intrinsically linked with terrestrial landscapes, an association that is already recognized as a key factor to address future research and effective governance. However, the complexity and range of the impact of ALUC in aquatic ecosystems have been fundamental challenges and have implicitly routed the analysis to particular segments, drivers, management, or effects of the theme. In this study, we present an attempt to frame the subject in a broader context through a topic-based bibliometric analysis. Our aim is to identify possible biases and gaps in the current scientific literature and detect the main topics that have characterized the theme. Our results show an unequal distribution of articles by country when we analyzed the authors' affiliation and also a slight increase in contributions from social and economic disciplines, although they are still underrepresented. Moreover, we distinguish topics whose prevalence seems to change, especially those topics where the use of scenario analysis and multi-stressors are considered. We discuss the main biases and gaps revealed by our results, concluding that future studies on the impact of ALUC on aquatic ecosystems should better integrate social and economic disciplines and expand geographic frontiers.

A guideline to frame stressor effects in freshwater ecosystems

Environmental policies fall short in protecting freshwater ecosystems, which are heavily threatened by human pressures and their associated stressors. One reason is that stressor effects depend on the context in which they occur and it is difficult to extrapolate patterns to predict the effect of stressors without these being contextualized in a general frame. This study aims at improving existing decision-making frameworks such as the DPSIR approach (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) or ERA (Environmental Risk Assessment) in the context of stressors. Here, we delve into stressor-impact relationships in freshwater ecosystems and develop a guideline which includes key characteristics such as stressor type, stressor duration, location, the natural levels of environmental variables to which each ecosystem is used to, among others. This guideline is intended to be useful in a wide range of ecosystem conditions and stressors. Incorporating these guidelines may favor the comparability of scientific results and may lead to a substantial advancement in the efficacy of diagnosis and predictive approaches of impacts.

Assessing riparian zone changes under the influence of stress factors in higher-order streams and tributaries: Implications for the management of massive dams and reservoirs

Riparian ecosystem services along higher-order streams and connected tributaries may change over time as disturbances continuously increase, resulting in diverse deterioration of buffer zones. How habitat, plant cover, regeneration, erosion, and exotic parameters (riparian health conditions) change within huge dams and reservoirs worldwide is an unanswered question. We used multivariate statistical techniques to assess changes in riparian health parameters affected by disturbances identified in 304 transects within the Three Gorges Dam Reservoir, China, and associated tributaries. Kruskal-Wallis tests (p < 0.01) revealed high diversity in habitat, plant cover, regeneration, erosion, and overall stream condition. There was also notable variance relating to exotic and pressure parameters. The critical variables of riparian health indicators and stress factors identified by principal component analysis explained 58.40% and 74.6% (in the main waterway) and 53.23% and 71.0% (in the tributaries) of the total variance. Among riparian health indicators, one habitat parameter (riparian vegetation width) in the main waterway and one regeneration parameter (tree size classes) in tributaries contributed greatly, along with other specified parameters. Furthermore, stress factors such as farming systems, land-use types, and pollutant activity variables had the highest impact on these water bodies. In comparison, counting stress factors alone showed more deterioration in the main waterway with a range of (r = -0.527- 0.493), as determined using Pearson correlation (p < 0.05). Furthermore, after indexing, the parameters exhibited weaker coefficient values in tributaries, where exotic correlated negatively with other indexed values. These findings are relevant for managers of massive dam and reservoir ecosystems seeking to mitigate environmental and socioeconomic losses.

Multiple stressors in Mediterranean coastal wetland ecosystems: Influence of salinity and an insecticide on zooplankton communities under different temperature conditions

Temperature increase, salinity intrusion and pesticide pollution have been suggested to be among the main stressors affecting the biodiversity of coastal wetland ecosystems. Here we assessed the single and combined effects of these stressors on zooplankton communities collected from a Mediterranean coastal lagoon. An indoor microcosm experiment was designed with temperature variation (20 °C and 30 °C), salinity (no addition, 2.5 g/L NaCl) and the insecticide chlorpyrifos (no addition, 1 μg/L) as treatments. The impact of these stressors was evaluated on water quality variables and on the zooplankton comunity (structure, diversity, abundance and taxa responses) for 28 days. This study shows that temperature is the main driver for zooplankton community change, followed by salinity and chlorpyrifos. The three stressors contributed to a decrease on zooplankton diversity. The increase of temperature contributed to an increase of zooplankton abundance. Salinity generally affected Cladocera, which resulted in a Copepoda increase at 20 °C, and a reduction in the abundance of all major zooplankton groups at 30 °C. The insecticide chlorpyrifos affected primarily Cladocera, altough the magnitude and duration of the direct and indirect effects caused by the insecticide substantially differed between the two temperature scenarios. Chlorpyrifos and salinity resulted in antagonistic effects on sensitive taxa (Cladocera) at 20 °C and 30 °C. This study shows that temperature can influence the direct and indirect effects of salinity and pesticides on zooplankton communities in Mediterranean coastal wetlands, and highlights vulnerable taxa and ecological responses that are expected to dominate under future global change scenarios.

Aggregating predictions from experts: a review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications

Forecasts support decision making in a variety of applications. Statistical models can produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse or rapidly changing, statistical models may not be able to make accurate predictions. Expert judgmental forecasts-models that combine expert-generated predictions into a single forecast-can make predictions when training data is limited by relying on human intuition. Researchers have proposed a wide array of algorithms to combine expert predictions into a single forecast, but there is no consensus on an optimal aggregation model. This review surveyed recent literature on aggregating expert-elicited predictions. We gathered common terminology, aggregation methods, and forecasting performance metrics, and offer guidance to strengthen future work that is growing at an accelerated pace.

Genome-wide diversity and habitat underlie fine-scale phenotypic differentiation in the rainbow darter (Etheostoma caeruleum)

Adaptation to environmental change requires that populations harbor the necessary genetic variation to respond to selection. However, dispersal-limited species with fragmented populations and reduced genetic diversity may lack this variation and are at an increased risk of local extinction. In freshwater fish species, environmental change in the form of increased stream temperatures places many cold-water species at-risk. We present a study of rainbow darters (Etheostoma caeruleum) in which we evaluated the importance of genetic variation on adaptive potential and determined responses to extreme thermal stress. We compared fine-scale patterns of morphological and thermal tolerance differentiation across eight sites, including a unique lake habitat. We also inferred contemporary population structure using genomic data and characterized the relationship between individual genetic diversity and stress tolerance. We found site-specific variation in thermal tolerance that generally matched local conditions and morphological differences associated with lake-stream divergence. We detected patterns of population structure on a highly local spatial scale that could not be explained by isolation by distance or stream connectivity. Finally, we showed that individual thermal tolerance was positively correlated with genetic variation, suggesting that sites with increased genetic diversity may be better at tolerating novel stress. Our results highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation in understanding population vulnerability and stress response.

Projecting the effects of agricultural conservation practices on stream fish communities in a changing climate

How anticipated climate change might affect long-term outcomes of present-day agricultural conservation practices remains a key uncertainty that could benefit water quality and biodiversity conservation planning. To explore this issue, we forecasted how the stream fish communities in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) would respond to increasing amounts of agricultural conservation practice (ACP) implementation under two IPCC future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5: moderate reductions; RCP8.5: business-as-usual conditions) during 2020-2065. We used output from 19 General Circulation Models to drive linked agricultural land use (APEX), watershed hydrology (SWAT), and stream fish distribution (boosted regression tree) models, subsequently analyzing how projected changes in habitat would influence fish community composition and functional trait diversity. Our models predicted both positive and negative effects of climate change and ACP implementation on WLEB stream fishes. For most species, climate and ACPs influenced species in the same direction, with climate effects outweighing those of ACP implementation. Functional trait analysis helped clarify the varied responses among species, indicating that more extreme climate change would reduce available habitat for large-bodied, cool-water species with equilibrium life-histories, many of which also are of importance to recreational fishing (e.g., northern pike, smallmouth bass). By contrast, available habitat for warm-water, benthic species with more periodic or opportunistic life-histories (e.g., northern hogsucker, greater redhorse, greenside darter) was predicted to increase. Further, ACP implementation was projected to hasten these shifts, suggesting that efforts to improve water quality could come with costs to other ecosystem services (e.g., recreational fishing opportunities). Collectively, our findings demonstrate the need to consider biological outcomes when developing strategies to mitigate water quality impairment and highlight the value of physical-biological modeling approaches to agricultural and biological conservation planning in a changing climate.

Improving Predictions of Climate Change-Land Use Change Interactions

Climate change and land use change often interact, altering biodiversity in unexpected ways. Research into climate change-land use change (CC-LUC) interactions has so far focused on quantifying biodiversity outcomes, rather than identifying the underlying ecological mechanisms, making it difficult to predict interactions and design appropriate conservation responses. We propose a risk-based framework to further our understanding of CC-LUC interactions. By identifying the factors driving the exposure and vulnerability of biodiversity to land use change, and then examining how these factors are altered by climate change (or vice versa), this framework will allow the effects of different interaction mechanisms to be compared across geographic and ecological contexts, supporting efforts to reduce biodiversity loss from interacting stressors.

Preparing GIS data for analysis of stream monitoring data: The R package openSTARS

Stream monitoring data provides insights into the biological, chemical and physical status of running waters. Additionally, it can be used to identify drivers of chemical or ecological water quality, to inform related management actions, and to forecast future conditions under land use and global change scenarios. Measurements from sites along the same stream may not be statistically independent, and the R package SSN provides a way to describe spatial autocorrelation when modelling relationships between measured variables and potential drivers. However, SSN requires the user to provide the stream network and sampling locations in a certain format. Likewise, other applications require catchment delineation and intersection of different spatial data. We developed the R package openSTARS that provides the functionality to derive stream networks from a digital elevation model, delineate stream catchments and intersect them with land use or other GIS data as potential predictors. Additionally, locations for model predictions can be generated automatically along the stream network. We present an example workflow of all data preparation steps. In a case study using data from water monitoring sites in Southern Germany, the resulting stream network and derived site characteristics matched those constructed using STARS, an ArcGIS custom toolbox. An advantage of openSTARS is that it relies on free and open-source GRASS GIS and R functions, unlike the original STARS toolbox which depends on proprietary ArcGIS. openSTARS also comes without a graphical user interface, to enhance reproducibility and reusability of the workflow, thereby harmonizing and simplifying the data pre-processing prior to statistical modelling. Overall, openSTARS facilitates the use of spatial regression and other applications on stream networks and contributes to reproducible science with applications in hydrology, environmental sciences and ecology.

Mapping tree species vulnerability to multiple threats as a guide to restoration and conservation of tropical dry forests

Understanding the vulnerability of tree species to anthropogenic threats is important for the efficient planning of restoration and conservation efforts. We quantified and compared the effects of future climate change and four current threats (fire, habitat conversion, overgrazing and overexploitation) on the 50 most common tree species of the tropical dry forests of northwestern Peru and southern Ecuador. We used an ensemble modelling approach to predict species distribution ranges, employed freely accessible spatial datasets to map threat exposures, and developed a trait-based scoring approach to estimate species-specific sensitivities, using differentiated trait weights in accordance with their expected importance in determining species sensitivities to specific threats. Species-specific vulnerability maps were constructed from the product of the exposure maps and the sensitivity estimates. We found that all 50 species face considerable threats, with an average of 46% of species' distribution ranges displaying high or very high vulnerability to at least one of the five threats. Our results suggest that current levels of habitat conversion, overexploitation and overgrazing pose larger threats to most of the studied species than climate change. We present a spatially explicit planning strategy for species-specific restoration and conservation actions, proposing management interventions to focus on (a) in situ conservation of tree populations and seed collection for tree planting activities in areas with low vulnerability to climate change and current threats; (b) ex situ conservation or translocation of populations in areas with high climate change vulnerability; and (c) active planting or assisted regeneration in areas under high current threat vulnerability but low climate change vulnerability, provided that interventions are in place to lower threat pressure. We provide an online, user-friendly tool to visualize both the vulnerability maps and the maps indicating priority restoration and conservation actions.

A scientometric review of the research on the impacts of climate change on water quality during 1998-2018

Research on the impacts of climate change on water quality helps to better formulate water quality strategies under the challenge of an uncertain future, which is critical for human survival and development. As a result, in recent years, there has been growing attention given to research in the field, and the attention has led to an increasing number of publications, which is why a systematic literature review on this topic has been proposed in the current paper. This study reviewed 2998 related articles extracted from the Science Citation Index-Expanded (SCI-E) database from 1998 to 2018 to analyse and visualize historical trend evolution, current research hotspots, and promising ideas for future research by combining a traditional literature review, bibliometric analysis, and scientific knowledge mapping. The results revealed that the impacts of climate change on water quality mainly included the aggravation of eutrophication, changes in the flow, hydrological and thermal conditions, and the destruction of ecosystems and biodiversity. Further exploration of the influence mechanism of climate change on cyanobacteria is an emerging research topic. Additionally, the water quality conditions of shallow lakes and drinking water are promising future research objects. In the context of climate change, the general rules of water quality management and the scientific planning of land use are of great significance and need to be further studied. This study provides a practical and valuable reference for researchers to help with the selection of future research topics, which may contribute to further development in this field.

Disentangling the potential effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions

Land-use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long-term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land-use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, United States. The Chesapeake Basin-wide Index of Biotic Integrity, a benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index, was used to represent stream condition. Land-use scenarios included four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) representing a range of potential landscape futures. Future climate scenarios included quartiles of future climate changes from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a watershed-wide uniform scenario (Lynch2016). We employed random forests analysis to model individual and combined effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions. Individual scenarios suggest that by 2090, watershed-wide conditions may exhibit anywhere from large degradations (e.g., scenarios A1B, A2, and the CMIP5 25th percentile) to small degradations (e.g., scenarios B1, B2, and Lynch2016). Combined land-use and climate change scenarios highlighted their interaction and predicted, by 2090, watershed-wide degradation in 16.2% (A2 CMIP5 25th percentile) to 1.0% (B2 Lynch2016) of stream kilometers. A goal for the Chesapeake Bay watershed is to restore 10% of stream kilometers over a 2008 baseline; our results suggest meeting and sustaining this goal until 2090 may require improvement in 11.0%-26.2% of stream kilometers, dependent on land-use and climate scenario. These results highlight inherent variability among scenarios and the resultant uncertainty of predicted conditions, which reinforces the need to incorporate multiple scenarios of both land-use (e.g., development, agriculture, etc.) and climate change in future studies to encapsulate the range of potential future conditions.

Resilience of aquatic systems: Review and management implications

Our understanding of how ecosystems function has changed from an equilibria-based view to one that recognizes the dynamic, fluctuating, nonlinear nature of aquatic systems. This current understanding requires that we manage systems for resilience. In this review, we examine how resilience has been defined, measured and applied in aquatic systems, and more broadly, in the socioecological systems in which they are embedded. Our review reveals the importance of managing stressors adversely impacting aquatic system resilience, as well as understanding the environmental and climatic cycles and changes impacting aquatic resources. Aquatic resilience may be enhanced by maintaining and enhancing habitat connectivity as well as functional redundancy and physical and biological diversity. Resilience in aquatic socioecological system may be enhanced by understanding and fostering linkages between the social and ecological subsystems, promoting equity among stakeholders, and understanding how the system is impacted by factors within and outside the area of immediate interest. Management for resilience requires implementation of adaptive and preferably collaborative management. Implementation of adaptive management for resilience will require an effective monitoring framework to detect key changes in the coupled socioecological system. Research is needed to (1) develop sensitive indicators and monitoring designs, (2) disentangle complex multi-scalar interactions and feedbacks, and (3) generalize lessons learned across aquatic ecosystems and apply them in new contexts.

From topography to hydrology-The modifiable area unit problem impacts freshwater species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) are statistical tools to identify potentially suitable habitats for species. For SDMs in river ecosystems, species occurrences and predictor data are often aggregated across subcatchments that serve as modeling units. The level of aggregation (i.e., model resolution) influences the statistical relationships between species occurrences and environmental predictors-a phenomenon known as the modifiable area unit problem (MAUP), making model outputs directly contingent on the model resolution. Here, we test how model performance, predictor importance, and the spatial congruence of species predictions depend on the model resolution (i.e., average subcatchment size) of SDMs. We modeled the potential habitat suitability of 50 native fish species in the upper Danube catchment at 10 different model resolutions. Model resolutions were derived using a 90-m digital-elevation model by using the GRASS-GIS module r.watershed. Here, we decreased the average subcatchment size gradually from 632 to 2 km2. We then ran ensemble SDMs based on five algorithms using topographical, climatic, hydrological, and land-use predictors for each species and resolution. Model evaluation scores were consistently high, as sensitivity and True Skill Statistic values ranged from 86.1-93.2 and 0.61-0.73, respectively. The most contributing predictor changed from topography at coarse, to hydrology at fine resolutions. Climate predictors played an intermediate role for all resolutions, while land use was of little importance. Regarding the predicted habitat suitability, we identified a spatial filtering from coarse to intermediate resolutions. The predicted habitat suitability within a coarse resolution was not ported to all smaller, nested subcatchments, but only to a fraction that held the suitable environmental conditions. Across finer resolutions, the mapped predictions were spatially congruent without such filter effect. We show that freshwater SDM predictions can have consistently high evaluation scores while mapped predictions differ significantly and are highly contingent on the underlying subcatchment size. We encourage building freshwater SDMs across multiple catchment sizes, to assess model variability and uncertainties in model outcomes emerging from the MAUP.

The interactive effects of climate change and land use on boreal stream fish communities

Ongoing and projected climate change is likely to greatly alter co-occurring stressor mechanisms, yet these potential interactions remain poorly understood in natural freshwater systems worldwide. As the global biodiversity crisis deepens, successful conservation efforts will hinge on developing mechanistic multiple stressor frameworks that have been ground-truthed in natural systems containing complex species dynamics and ecological processes. Our study examined the combined and interacting effects of potential climate and land use stressors on boreal stream fishes using data from over 300 catchments across a broad 250,000 km² region. To characterize boreal fish community health, we examined four indicators including species richness, total catch per unit effort, the proportion of lithophilic spawners (fish sensitive to sedimentation), and the assemblage tolerance index which provides a measurement of the overall community tolerance to disturbance. Land use stressors included total anthropogenic land use area and linear disturbance at multiple watershed scales as well as two site-specific habitat degradation indicators (dissolved oxygen and the proportion of fine substrate). Overall community richness and productivity were not negatively related to land use changes indicating potential compensatory dynamics (e.g. where intolerant species are replaced with more tolerant species as habitat quality degrades). In contrast, we observed declines for sensitive species, including highly valued salmonids, that varied depending on interactions between local climate, land use, and stream type. Sensitive species declines were concentrated in regions experiencing increased land use and warming, whereas increases were observed in cooler regions consistent with a subsidy-stress response. In addition, lithophilic spawners declined in watersheds experiencing warmer and wetter conditions owing to potential indirect effects on spawning habitat quality. Results from our study provide novel insight into complex climate and land use interactions occurring across a broad, real-world landscape, and highlight the potential for amplified species declines under future warming and land use scenarios.

Effect of Landscape Changes on Water Quality and Health Status of Heptapterus mustelinus (Siluriformes, Heptapteridae)

Substances derived from anthropogenic activities induce changes in the physical and chemical characteristics of the aquatic environment. Physicochemical and biological studies are necessary to understand how changes in landscape affect the health of the aquatic environment. The main goal of this study was to evaluate how the landscape at different spatial scales affects (1) water quality and (2) the health status of Heptapterus mustelinus, based on several biomarkers. During the dry season, individuals were caught in three sites with different degrees of anthropogenic activity. The quality of the terrestrial environment was assessed using the Riparian Quality and Land Use Indices. The water quality condition was evaluated using a water quality index, and pesticides and pharmaceuticals were measured in water. The following biomarkers were analyzed in the fish: general health status (Condition Factor, Hepatosomatic index and energetic costs), enzymatic activity (GST, CAT, AchE), carbonyl content in proteins and histopathological responses in liver and gills. The most impacted sites by the presence of pesticides showed more alterations in the surrounding landscape; specially, changes in the riparian area. In this area, biomarkers denoted more damage than in sites with protected riparian zone. Conservation status of riparian ecosystems is crucial in the determination of rivers ecological quality. Our results demonstrate the importance of monitoring the environmental quality through an integrated analysis, using native fish to understand the effects of human activities on the biota.

Does short-term salinization of freshwater alter the behaviour of the Iberian barbel (Luciobarbus bocagei, Steindachner 1864)?

Stream salinization is a great environmental hazard being aggravated by anthropogenic disturbances. Harmful conditions, as increasing salinity in freshwater systems, may negatively affect river fish fauna and possibly influence fish behaviour, such as boldness and/or cerebral lateralization. Salinity has been proven to affect behavioural expression, despite the tolerance of some species. It is thus relevant to study these behaviours, as the salinity exposure effects could represent greater environmental consequences. The impact of salinity stress was evaluated by exposing Iberian barbels, Luciobarbus bocagei (Steindachner, 1864) (Cypriniformes, Cyprinidae), to three levels of salinity (0.9, 9 and 19 mS/cm, using NaCl) and by conducting boldness and lateralization experiments, regarding population trends. Results show that, with increased salinity, fish diverged to the extremes of the shy-bold gradient, the population was slightly lateralized to the left, and seemed to become more lateralized with increasing salinity. However, there were no statistical differences between the treatments. Fish living in a Mediterranean climate are especially resilient to various stressors, which may confer them additional tolerance, and in this case, acute punctual exposure to increased salinity may not be detrimental for behaviour maintenance. We encourage the expansion of the research to different freshwater fish species that would help to recognise salinity thresholds and use them to implement effective conservation measures and appropriate ecological restoration actions for these sensible systems.

Freshwater species distributions along thermal gradients

The distribution of a species along a thermal gradient is commonly approximated by a unimodal response curve, with a characteristic single optimum near the temperature where a species is most likely to be found, and a decreasing probability of occurrence away from the optimum. We aimed at identifying thermal response curves (TRCs) of European freshwater species and evaluating the potential impact of climate warming across species, taxonomic groups, and latitude. We first applied generalized additive models using catchment-scale global data on distribution ranges of 577 freshwater species native to Europe and four different temperature variables (the current annual mean air/water temperature and the maximum air/water temperature of the warmest month) to describe species TRCs. We then classified TRCs into one of eight curve types and identified spatial patterns in thermal responses. Finally, we integrated empirical TRCs and the projected geographic distribution of climate warming to evaluate the effect of rising temperatures on species' distributions. For the different temperature variables, 390-463 of 577 species (67.6%-80.2%) were characterized by a unimodal TRC. The number of species with a unimodal TRC decreased from central toward northern and southern Europe. Warming tolerance (WT = maximum temperature of occurrence-preferred temperature) was higher at higher latitudes. Preferred temperature of many species is already exceeded. Rising temperatures will affect most Mediterranean species. We demonstrated that freshwater species' occurrence probabilities are most frequently unimodal. The impact of the global climate warming on species distributions is species and latitude dependent. Among the studied taxonomic groups, rising temperatures will be most detrimental to fish. Our findings support the efforts of catchment-based freshwater management and conservation in the face of global warming.

Changes in multiple facets of macroinvertebrate alpha diversity are linked to afforestation in a subtropical riverine natural reserve

Land use change is one of the major factors impacting freshwater biodiversity. Afforestation could convert new lands from agriculture or urban land uses to reduce erosion and lead to landscape alterations and biodiversity changes. Here, we examined the changes in the three facets of macroinvertebrate alpha diversity (i.e., taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity) and further explored possible mechanisms driving their variations before (2007) and after (2016) afforestation along the undammed Chishui River, the core of the National Nature Reserve of Rare and Endemic Fishes in the Upper Yangtze River. We found that taxonomic diversity measures (e.g., species richness, Shannon-Wiener index and Simpson index) increased but all measures of functional diversity (e.g., FRic, FEve, FDiv, and RaoQ) and phylogenetic diversity (e.g., indices of taxonomic distinctness) exhibited stability after the afforestation practice. We also found that only significant taxonomic diversity variation was detected and it showed a relationship to alterations of land use rather than local environmental condition changes across the 10-year afforestation practice. Moreover, hydrology and nutrients levels showed changes after afforestation, but these changes had no effect on the biodiversity changes based on multiple linear regression models. In each survey, the three facets of alpha diversity were significantly explained by natural physical factors and showed inconsistent responses to these underlying environmental variables. In addition, the biodiversity-environment relationships remained stable before and after afforestation, indicating that the inherent mechanisms that drive macroinvertebrate community variation have not changed. Our findings highlight that different alpha diversity measures of lotic macroinvertebrates provide different information about biodiversity and respond differently to various environmental variables. Thus, it is necessary to integrate them into one framework when applying routine monitoring, assessment, and conservation procedures based on lotic macroinvertebrates.

Brook trout distributional response to unconventional oil and gas development: Landscape context matters

We conducted a large-scale assessment of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) development effects on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) distribution. We compiled 2231 brook trout collection records from the Upper Susquehanna River Watershed, USA. We used boosted regression tree (BRT) analysis to predict occurrence probability at the 1:24,000 stream-segment scale as a function of natural and anthropogenic landscape and climatic attributes. We then evaluated the importance of landscape context (i.e., pre-existing natural habitat quality and anthropogenic degradation) in modulating the effects of UOG on brook trout distribution under UOG development scenarios. BRT made use of 5 anthropogenic (28% relative influence) and 7 natural (72% relative influence) variables to model occurrence with a high degree of accuracy [Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC)=0.85 and cross-validated AUC=0.81]. UOG development impacted 11% (n=2784) of streams and resulted in a loss of predicted occurrence in 126 (4%). Most streams impacted by UOG had unsuitable underlying natural habitat quality (n=1220; 44%). Brook trout were predicted to be absent from an additional 26% (n=733) of streams due to pre-existing non-UOG land uses (i.e., agriculture, residential and commercial development, or historic mining). Streams with a predicted and observed (via existing pre- and post-disturbance fish sampling records) loss of occurrence due to UOG tended to have intermediate natural habitat quality and/or intermediate levels of non-UOG stress. Simulated development of permitted but undeveloped UOG wells (n=943) resulted in a loss of predicted occurrence in 27 additional streams. Loss of occurrence was strongly dependent upon landscape context, suggesting effects of current and future UOG development are likely most relevant in streams near the probability threshold due to pre-existing habitat degradation.

Sensitivity of the early life stages of a mayfly to fine sediment and orthophosphate levels

The ecological effects of interacting stressors within lotic ecosystems have been widely acknowledged. In particular, the ecological effects of elevated fine sediment inputs and phosphate have been identified as key factors influencing faunal community structure and composition. However, while knowledge regarding adult and larval life stage responses to environmental stressors has grown, there has been very limited research on their eggs. In this study, the eggs of the mayfly Serratella ignita (Ephemerellidae: Ephemeroptera) were collected and incubated in laboratory aquaria to hatching under differing concentrations of inert suspended sediment (SS) and orthophosphate (OP), individually and in combination. Results indicate that SS and OP have greater effects on egg hatching in combination than when either were considered in isolation. SS displayed a greater effect on egg survival than OP in isolation or when OP was added to elevated SS treatments. Egg mortality in control treatments was around 6% compared to 45% in treatments with 25 mg l^-1 SS and 52% in 0.3 mg l^-1 OP treatments. Even relatively modest levels of each stressor (10 mg l^-1 SS; 0.1 mg l^-1 OP), below national legal thresholds, had significant effects on egg survival to hatching. The results support calls for legal levels of SS to be reassessed and suggest that more research is required to assess the impacts of pollution on invertebrate egg development given their different sensitivity and exposure pathways compared to other life stages.

Metabolic rates of embryos and alevin from a cold-adapted salmonid differ with temperature, population and family of origin: implications for coping with climate change

Early developmental stages of cold-adapted ectotherms such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) are at higher risk of mortality with increasing water temperatures. To determine the amount of variation present in early life, which may allow for potential adaptation to increasing temperature, we examined the routine metabolic rates (RMR) of wild-origin brook trout embryos and alevins reared at normal (5°C) and elevated (9°C) temperatures. The experiment was structured to examine variation in RMR within and among several levels of biological organization (family, population and ancestral type (native vs. mixed ancestry)). As expected, family and temperature variables were most important for predicting RMR and body mass, although population-level differences also existed when family was excluded for more detailed analysis. Additionally, body mass strongly influenced RMR at all life stages except for eyed embryos. When family identity was removed from the analysis, population became the most significant variable. Variation in RMR and mass within and among populations may indicate existing adaptive potential within and among brook trout populations to respond to predicted warming under climate change scenarios.

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.

Disentangling the effects of a century of eutrophication and climate warming on freshwater lake fish assemblages

Eutrophication and climate warming are profoundly affecting fish in many freshwater lakes. Understanding the specific effects of these stressors is critical for development of effective adaptation and remediation strategies for conserving fish populations in a changing environment. Ecological niche models that incorporated the individual effects of nutrient concentration and climate were developed for 25 species of fish sampled in standard gillnet surveys from 1,577 Minnesota lakes. Lake phosphorus concentrations and climates were hindcasted to a pre-disturbance period of 1896–1925 using existing land use models and historical temperature data. Then historical fish assemblages were reconstructed using the ecological niche models. Substantial changes were noted when reconstructed fish assemblages were compared to those from the contemporary period (1981–2010). Disentangling the sometimes opposing, sometimes compounding, effects of eutrophication and climate warming was critical for understanding changes in fish assemblages. Reconstructed abundances of eutrophication-tolerant, warmwater taxa increased in prairie lakes that experienced significant eutrophication and climate warming. Eutrophication-intolerant, warmwater taxa abundance increased in forest lakes where primarily climate warming was the stressor. Coolwater fish declined in abundance in both ecoregions. Large changes in modeled abundance occurred when the effects of both climate and eutrophication operated in the same direction for some species. Conversely, the effects of climate warming and eutrophication operated in opposing directions for other species and dampened net changes in abundance. Quantifying the specific effects of climate and eutrophication will allow water resource managers to better understand how lakes have changed and provide expectations for sustainable fish assemblages in the future.