Negative impacts of high temperatures on growth of black spruce forests intensify with the anticipated climate warming

Future carbon sequestration potential in a widespread transcontinental boreal tree species: Standing genetic variation matters!

Climate change (CC) necessitates reforestation/afforestation programs to mitigate its impacts and maximize carbon sequestration. But comprehending how tree growth, a proxy for fitness and resilience, responds to CC is critical to maximize these programs' effectiveness. Variability in tree response to CC across populations can notably be influenced by the standing genetic variation encompassing both neutral and adaptive genetic diversity. Here, a framework is proposed to assess tree growth potential at the population scale while accounting for standing genetic variation. We applied this framework to black spruce (BS, Picea mariana [Mill] B.S.P.), with the objectives to (1) determine the key climate variables having impacted BS growth response from 1974 to 2019, (2) examine the relative roles of local adaptation and the phylogeographic structure in this response, and (3) project BS growth under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways while taking standing genetic variation into account. We modeled growth using a machine learning algorithm trained with dendroecological and genetic data obtained from over 2600 trees (62 populations divided in three genetic clusters) in four 48-year-old common gardens, and simulated growth until year 2100 at the common garden locations. Our study revealed that high summer and autumn temperatures negatively impacted BS growth. As a consequence of warming, this species is projected to experience a decline in growth by the end of the century, suggesting maladaptation to anticipated CC and a potential threat to its carbon sequestration capacity. This being said, we observed a clear difference in response to CC within and among genetic clusters, with the western cluster being more impacted than the central and eastern clusters. Our results show that intraspecific genetic variation, notably associated with the phylogeographic structure, must be considered when estimating the response of widespread species to CC.

Spatial Variation in Responses of Plant Spring Phenology to Climate Warming in Grasslands of Inner Mongolia: Drivers and Application

Plant spring phenology in grasslands distributed in the Northern Hemisphere is highly responsive to climate warming. The growth of plants is intricately influenced by not only air temperature but also precipitation and soil factors, both of which exhibit spatial variation. Given the critical impact of the plant growth season on the livelihood of husbandry communities in grasslands, it becomes imperative to comprehend regional-scale spatial variation in the response of plant spring phenology to climate warming and the effects of precipitation and soil factors on such variation. This understanding is beneficial for region-specific phenology predictions in husbandry communities. In this study, we analyzed the spatial pattern of the correlation coefficient between the start date of the plant growth season (SOS) and the average winter-spring air temperature (WST) of Inner Mongolia grassland from 2003 to 2019. Subsequently, we analyzed the importance of 13 precipitation and soil factors for the correlation between SOS and average WST using a random forest model and analyzed the interactive effect of the important factors on the SOS using linear mixing models (LMMs). Based on these, we established SOS models using data from pastoral areas within different types of grassland. The percentage of areas with a negative correlation between SOS and average WST in meadow and typical grasslands was higher than that in desert grasslands. Results from the random forest model highlighted the significance of snow cover days (SCD), soil organic carbon (SOC), and soil nitrogen content (SNC) as influential factors affecting the correlation between SOS and average WST. Meadow grasslands exhibited significantly higher levels of SCD, SOC, and SNC compared to typical and desert grasslands. The LMMs indicated that the interaction of grassland type and the average WST and SCD can effectively explain the variation in SOS. The multiple linear models that incorporated both average WST and SCD proved to be better than models utilizing WST or SCD alone in predicting SOS. These findings indicate that the spatial patterns of precipitation and soil factors are closely associated with the spatial variation in the response of SOS to climate warming in Inner Mongolia grassland. Moreover, the average WST and SCD, when considered jointly, can be used to predict plant spring phenology in husbandry communities.

Lake Superior's summer cooling of shorelines and adjacent inland forests: Implications for refugia of boreal forests and disjunct arctic-alpine plants

Climate refugia can serve as remnant habitat for cold-adapted species and delay forest transitions. The world's largest freshwater lake by surface area, Lake Superior, serves as a model system for understanding cooling-mediated refugia effects, as its cool summer water temperatures have maintained disjunct populations of arctic-alpine plants on its shoreline since deglaciation. It is known to affect local inland climates by providing a summer cooling effect; however, the inland temperature gradient and spatial patterns of cooling have not been well quantified. Here, we describe the extent, degree, and patterns of temperature buffering and examine drivers of buffering and disjunct plant occurrence for Lake Superior's north shore over a 3-year period at distances of 10, 100 m, 1, 10, and 100 km inland. We analyzed temperature data by year, month, summer maximum (July), and growing degree days (GDD0) for each site. Average summertime cooling at shore sites (10 m) was ~5°C cooler than reference sites (100 km inland), with a maximum difference of -19.2°C. The magnitude of cooling varied geographically, with sites further west and southeast showing little to no cooling effect, while the exposed north-central shore showed the highest degree of buffering (5.8°C cooler) and had a shorter growing season than reference sites. Finally, north-central shorelines had fewer days above 16°C, a threshold above which disjunct plants are unlikely to grow. These sites also showed the highest proportion of disjunct arctic-alpine species, reflecting the highest buffering from inland sites. On north-central shores, sites up to 10 km inland had less than 10 days per year warmer than 20°C, a threshold identified for boreal forest transition. An understanding of the extent of lake-mediated cooling on adjacent forests can better inform the risk to disjunct species, inland forests, and vegetation transition models on Lake Superior's north shore.

Increasing atmospheric dryness reduces boreal forest tree growth

Rising atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) associated with climate change affects boreal forest growth via stomatal closure and soil dryness. However, the relationship between VPD and forest growth depends on the climatic context. Here we assess Canadian boreal forest responses to VPD changes from 1951-2018 using a well-replicated tree-growth increment network with approximately 5,000 species-site combinations. Of the 3,559 successful growth models, we observed a relationship between growth and concurrent summer VPD in one-third of the species-site combinations, and between growth and prior summer VPD in almost half of those combinations. The relationship between previous year VPD and current year growth was almost exclusively negative, while current year VPD also tended to reduce growth. Tree species, age, annual temperature, and soil moisture primarily determined tree VPD responses. Younger trees and species like white spruce and Douglas fir exhibited higher VPD sensitivity, as did areas with high annual temperature and low soil moisture. Since 1951, summer VPD increases in Canada have paralleled tree growth decreases, particularly in spruce species. Accelerating atmospheric dryness in the decades ahead will impair carbon storage and societal-economic services.

Boreal conifers maintain carbon uptake with warming despite failure to track optimal temperatures

Warming shifts the thermal optimum of net photosynthesis (ToptA) to higher temperatures. However, our knowledge of this shift is mainly derived from seedlings grown in greenhouses under ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) conditions. It is unclear whether shifts in ToptA of field-grown trees will keep pace with the temperatures predicted for the 21st century under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here, using a whole-ecosystem warming controlled experiment under either ambient or elevated CO2 levels, we show that ToptA of mature boreal conifers increased with warming. However, shifts in ToptA did not keep pace with warming as ToptA only increased by 0.26-0.35 °C per 1 °C of warming. Net photosynthetic rates estimated at the mean growth temperature increased with warming in elevated CO2 spruce, while remaining constant in ambient CO2 spruce and in both ambient CO2 and elevated CO2 tamarack with warming. Although shifts in ToptA of these two species are insufficient to keep pace with warming, these boreal conifers can thermally acclimate photosynthesis to maintain carbon uptake in future air temperatures.

New tree-ring data from Canadian boreal and hemi-boreal forests provide insight for improving the climate sensitivity of terrestrial biosphere models

Understanding boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth sensitivity to seasonal variations in temperature and water availability provides important basis for projecting the potential impacts of climate change on the productivity of these ecosystems. Our best available information currently comes from a limited number of field experiments and terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of varying predictive accuracy. Here, we assessed the sensitivity of annual boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth in Canada to yearly fluctuations in seasonal climate variables using a large tree-ring dataset and compared this to the climate sensitivity of annual net primary productivity (NPP) estimates obtained from fourteen TBMs. We found that boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth sensitivity to fluctuations in seasonal temperature and precipitation variables changed along a southwestern to northeastern gradient, with growth limited almost entirely by temperature in the northeast and west and by water availability in the southwest. We also found a lag in growth climate sensitivity, with growth largely determined by the climate during the summer prior to ring formation. Analyses of NPP sensitivity to the same climate variables produced a similar southwest to northeast gradient in growth climate sensitivity for NPP estimates from all but three TBMs. However, analyses of growth from tree-ring data and analyses of NPP from TBMs produced contrasting evidence concerning the key climate variables limiting growth. While analyses of NPP primarily indicated a positive relationship between growth and seasonal temperature, tree-ring analyses indicated negative growth relationships to temperature. Also, the positive effect of precipitation on NPP derived from most TBMs was weaker than the positive effect of precipitation on tree-ring based growth: temperature had a more important limiting effect on NPP than tree-ring data indicated. These mismatches regarding the key climate variables limiting growth suggested that characterization of tree growth in TBMs might need revision, particularly regarding the effects of stomatal conductance and carbohydrate reserve dynamics.

Genetic basis of growth reaction to drought stress differs in contrasting high-latitude treeline ecotones of a widespread conifer

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of drought events in many boreal forests. Trees are sessile organisms with a long generation time, which makes them vulnerable to fast climate change and hinders fast adaptations. Therefore, it is important to know how forests cope with drought stress and to explore the genetic basis of these reactions. We investigated three natural populations of white spruce (Picea glauca) in Alaska, located at one drought-limited and two cold-limited treelines with a paired plot design of one forest and one treeline plot. We obtained individual increment cores from 458 trees and climate data to assess dendrophenotypes, in particular the growth reaction to drought stress. To explore the genetic basis of these dendrophenotypes, we genotyped the individual trees at 3000 single nucleotide polymorphisms in candidate genes and performed genotype-phenotype association analysis using linear mixed models and Bayesian sparse linear mixed models. Growth reaction to drought stress differed in contrasting treeline populations. Therefore, the populations are likely to be unevenly affected by climate change. We identified 40 genes associated with dendrophenotypic traits that differed among the treeline populations. Most genes were identified in the drought-limited site, indicating comparatively strong selection pressure of drought-tolerant phenotypes. Contrasting patterns of drought-associated genes among sampled sites and in comparison to Canadian populations in a previous study suggest that drought adaptation acts on a local scale. Our results highlight genes that are associated with wood traits which in turn are critical for the establishment and persistence of future forests under climate change.

Cold-season freeze frequency is a pervasive driver of subcontinental forest growth

SignificanceThe reduction of freeze exposure with winter warming has consequences for carbon sequestration by northern forests. Quantifying the impact of these changes on tree growth is, however, challenging because of among- and within-tree species variability in freeze tolerance and phenological cues. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of tree growth response to the cold-season frequency of freeze days using an extensive tree-ring dataset covering Canada's forests. Our study shows that tree growth responses to freeze exposure vary in direction and magnitude by clade and species but also with leaf-out strategy, tree age and size, and environmental factors. Such quantification can help predict terrestrial carbon dynamics under climate change.

Site index as a predictor of the effect of climate warming on boreal tree growth

The boreal forest represents the terrestrial biome most heavily affected by climate change. However, no consensus exists regarding the impacts of these changes on the growth of tree species therein. Moreover, assessments of young tree responses in metrics transposable to forest management remain scarce. Here, we assessed the impacts of climate change on black spruce (Picea mariana [Miller] BSP) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lambert) growth, two dominant tree species in boreal forests of North America. Starting with a retrospective analysis including data from 2591 black spruces and 890 jack pines, we forecasted trends in 30-year height growth at the transitions from closed to open boreal coniferous forests in Québec, Canada. We considered three variables: (1) height growth, rarely used, but better-reflecting site potential than other growth proxies, (2) climate normals corresponding to the growth period of each stem, and (3) site type (as a function of texture, stoniness, and drainage), which can modify the effects of climate on tree growth. We found a positive effect of vapor pressure deficit on the growth of both species, although the effect on black spruce leveled off. For black spruce, temperatures had a positive effect on the height at 30 years, which was attenuated when and where climatic conditions became drier. Conversely, drought had a positive effect on height under cold conditions and a negative effect under warm conditions. Spruce growth was also better on mesic than on rocky and sub-hydric sites. For portions of the study areas with projected future climate within the calibration range, median height-change varied from 10 to 31% for black spruce and from 5 to 31% for jack pine, depending on the period and climate scenario. As projected increases are relatively small, they may not be sufficient to compensate for potential increases in future disturbances like forest fires.

Multi-model projections of tree species performance in Quebec, Canada under future climate change

Many modelling approaches have been developed to project climate change impacts on forests. By analysing 'comparable' yet distinct variables (e.g. productivity, growth, dominance, biomass, etc.) through different structures, parameterizations and assumptions, models can yield different outcomes to rather similar initial questions. This variability can lead to some confusion for forest managers when developing strategies to adapt forest management to climate change. In this study, we standardized results from seven different models (Habitat suitability, trGam, StandLEAP, Quebec Landscape Dynamics, PICUS, LANDIS-II and LPJ-LMfire) to provide a simple and comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty and consensus in future performance (decline, status quo, improvement) for six tree species in Quebec under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Despite a large diversity of model types, we found a high level of agreement (73.1%) in projected species' performance across species, regions, scenarios and time periods. Low agreements in model outcomes resulted from small dissensions among models. Model agreement was much higher for cold-tolerant species (up to 99.9%), especially in southernmost forest regions and under RCP 8.5, indicating that these species are especially sensitive to increased climate forcing in the southern part of their distribution range. Lower agreement was found for thermophilous species (sugar maple, yellow birch) in boreal regions under RCP 8.5 mostly as a result of the way the different models are handling natural disturbances (e.g. wildfires) and lags in the response of populations (forest inertia or migration capability) to climate change. Agreement was slightly higher under high anthropogenic climate forcing, suggesting that important thresholds in species-specific performance might be crossed if radiative forcing reach values as high as those projected under RCP 8.5. We expect that strong agreement among models despite their different assumptions, predictors and structure should inspire the development of forest management strategies to be better adapted to climate change.

Predicting the responses of subalpine forest landscape dynamics to climate change on the eastern Tibetan Plateau

Subalpine vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau is globally one of the most sensitive to climate change. However, the potential landscape-scale effects of climate change on subalpine forest dynamics remain largely unexplored. Here, we used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II) to simulate forest dynamics under future climate change in Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in the eastern subalpine region of the Tibetan Plateau. We examined changes in the composition, distribution and aboveground biomass of cold temperate coniferous forests, temperate coniferous forests, deciduous broad-leaved forests and redwood forest under four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the current climate) from 2016 to 2096. Our model predicts that by 2096, (i) cold temperate coniferous forests will expand and increase by 7.92%, 8.18%, 8.65% and 7.02% under current climate, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively; (ii) distribution of forests as a whole shows upward elevational range shift, especially under RCP8.5 scenario and (iii) total aboveground biomass slowly increases at first and then decreases to 12%-16% of current distribution under RCPs. These results show that climate change can be expected to significantly influence forest composition, distribution and aboveground biomass in the subalpine forests of eastern Tibetan Plateau. This study is the first to simulate forest dynamics at the landscape scale in subalpine areas of the Tibetan Plateau, which provides an important step in developing more effective strategies of forest management for expected climate change, not only in China but also around the world.

Warming induces divergent stomatal dynamics in co-occurring boreal trees

Climate warming will alter photosynthesis and respiration not only via direct temperature effects on leaf biochemistry but also by increasing atmospheric dryness, thereby reducing stomatal conductance and suppressing photosynthesis. Our knowledge on how climate warming affects these processes is mainly derived from seedlings grown under highly controlled conditions. However, little is known regarding temperature responses of trees growing under field settings. We exposed mature tamarack and black spruce trees growing in a peatland ecosystem to whole-ecosystem warming of up to +9°C above ambient air temperatures in an ongoing long-term experiment (SPRUCE: Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments). Here, we report the responses of leaf gas exchange after the first two years of warming. We show that the two species exhibit divergent stomatal responses to warming and vapor pressure deficit. Warming of up to 9°C increased leaf N in both spruce and tamarack. However, higher leaf N in the warmer plots translate into higher photosynthesis in tamarack but not in spruce, with photosynthesis being more constrained by stomatal limitations in spruce than in tamarack under warm conditions. Surprisingly, dark respiration did not acclimate to warming in spruce, and thermal acclimation of respiration was only seen in tamarack once changes in leaf N were considered. Our results highlight how warming can lead to differing stomatal responses to warming in co-occurring species, with consequent effects on both vegetation carbon and water dynamics.

Role of Mixed-Species Stands in Attenuating the Vulnerability of Boreal Forests to Climate Change and Insect Epidemics

We investigated whether stand species mixture can attenuate the vulnerability of eastern Canada's boreal forests to climate change and insect epidemics. For this, we focused on two dominant boreal species, black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), in stands dominated by black spruce or trembling aspen ("pure stands"), and mixed stands (M) composed of both species within a 36 km² study area in the Nord-du-Québec region. For each species in each stand composition type, we tested climate-growth relations and assessed the impacts on growth by recorded insect epidemics of a black spruce defoliator, the spruce budworm (SBW) [Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)], and a trembling aspen defoliator, the forest tent caterpillar (FTC; Malacosoma disstria Hübn.). We implemented linear models in a Bayesian framework to explain baseline and long-term trends in tree growth for each species according to stand composition type and to differentiate the influences of climate and insect epidemics on tree growth. Overall, we found climate vulnerability was lower for black spruce in mixed stands than in pure stands, while trembling aspen was less sensitive to climate than spruce, and aspen did not present differences in responses based on stand mixture. We did not find any reduction of vulnerability for mixed stands to insect epidemics in the host species, but the non-host species in mixed stands could respond positively to epidemics affecting the host species, thus contributing to stabilize ecosystem-scale growth over time. Our findings partially support boreal forest management strategies including stand species mixture to foster forests that are resilient to climate change and insect epidemics.

Connecting tree-ring phenotypes, genetic associations and transcriptomics to decipher the genomic architecture of drought adaptation in a widespread conifer

As boreal forests face significant threats from climate change, understanding evolutionary trajectories of coniferous species has become fundamental to adapting management and conservation to a drying climate. We examined the genomic architecture underlying adaptive variation related to drought tolerance in 43 populations of a widespread boreal conifer, white spruce (Piceaglauca [Moench] Voss), by combining genotype–environment associations, genotype–phenotype associations, and transcriptomics. Adaptive genetic variation was identified by correlating allele frequencies for 6,153 single nucleotide polymorphisms from 2,606 candidate genes with temperature, precipitation and aridity gradients, and testing for significant associations between genotypes and 11 dendrometric and drought‐related traits (i.e., anatomical, growth response and climate‐sensitivity traits) using a polygenic model. We identified a set of 285 genes significantly associated with a climatic factor or a phenotypic trait, including 110 that were differentially expressed in response to drought under greenhouse‐controlled conditions. The interlinked phenotype–genotype–environment network revealed eight high‐confidence genes involved in white spruce adaptation to drought, of which four were drought‐responsive in the expression analysis. Our findings represent a significant step toward the characterization of the genomic basis of drought tolerance and adaptation to climate in conifers, which is essential to enable the establishment of resilient forests in view of new climate conditions.

see also the Perspective by Lars Opgenoorth and Christian Rellstab

Annual aboveground carbon uptake enhancements from assisted gene flow in boreal black spruce forests are not long-lasting

Assisted gene flow between populations has been proposed as an adaptive forest management strategy that could contribute to the sequestration of carbon. Here we provide an assessment of the mitigation potential of assisted gene flow in 46 populations of the widespread boreal conifer Picea mariana, grown in two 42-year-old common garden experiments and established in contrasting Canadian boreal regions. We use a dendroecological approach taking into account phylogeographic structure to retrospectively analyse population phenotypic variability in annual aboveground net primary productivity (NPP). We compare population NPP phenotypes to detect signals of adaptive variation and/or the presence of phenotypic clines across tree lifespans, and assess genotype-by-environment interactions by evaluating climate and NPP relationships. Our results show a positive effect of assisted gene flow for a period of approximately 15 years following planting, after which there was little to no effect. Although not long lasting, well-informed assisted gene flow could accelerate the transition from carbon source to carbon sink after disturbance.

Network analysis can guide resilience-based management in forest landscapes under global change

Forests are projected to undergo dramatic compositional and structural shifts prompted by global changes, such as climatic changes and intensifying natural disturbance regimes. Future uncertainty makes planning for forest management exceptionally difficult, demanding novel approaches to maintain or improve the ability of forest ecosystems to respond and rapidly reorganize after disturbance events. Adopting a landscape perspective in forest management is particularly important in fragmented forest landscapes where both diversity and connectivity play key roles in determining resilience to global change. In this context, network analysis and functional traits combined with ecological dynamic modeling can help evaluate changes in functional response diversity and connectivity within and among forest stands in fragmented landscapes. Here, we coupled ecological dynamic modeling with functional traits analysis and network theory to analyze forested landscapes as an interconnected network of forest patches. We simulated future forest landscape dynamics in a large landscape in southern Quebec, Canada, under a combination of climate, disturbance, and management scenarios. We depicted the landscape as a functional network, assessed changes in future resilience using indicators at multiple spatial scales, and evaluated if current management practices are suitable for maintaining resilience to simulated changes in regimes. Our results show that climate change would promote forest productivity and favor heat-adapted deciduous species. Changes in natural disturbances will likely have negative impacts on native conifers and will drive changes in forest type composition. Climate change negatively impacted all resilience indicators and triggered losses of functional response diversity and connectivity across the landscape with undesirable consequences on the capacity of these forests to adapt to global change. Also, current management strategies failed to promote resilience at different spatial levels, highlighting the need for a more active and thoughtful approach to forest management under global change. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of combining dynamic landscape-scale simulation modeling with network analyses to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change as well as human and natural disturbances on forest resilience under global change.

Green Infrastructure Offset of the Negative Ecological Effects of Urbanization and Storing Water in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

Land use planning usually increases the uncertainties of the ecosystem structures and functions because various human demands usually bring both positive and negative ecological effects. It is critical for estimating various land use changes and their ecological effects, but the previous studies have failed to decouple the respective and the combined effects of different land use changes on ecosystem services. Net primary productivity (NPP) could be used to indicate many ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and storage. Here, we employed a light use efficiency model to estimate the spatial and temporal dynamics of NPP in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area from 2000 to 2015, and designed four scenarios to analyze the relative roles of afforestation, urbanization and storing water on NPP dynamics. Our results documented that terrestrial NPP of the TGR area increased from 547.40 gC•m^-2 to 629.96 gC•m^-2, and carbon sequestration capacities were 31.66 TgC (1Tg = 10¹²g) and 36.79 TgC in 2000 and 2015, respectively. Climate change and land use change both could contribute to carbon sequestration with 4.08 TgC and 1.05 TgC. Among these land use changes, only afforestation could sequester carbon with 2.04 TgC, while urbanization-induced and impoundment-induced emissions were 0.12 TgC and 0.32 TgC, respectively, and other land use changes also could release 0.55 TgC of carbon. This finding suggested that although positive and negative environmental effects happened simultaneously over the past decades, green infrastructure could effectively offset the carbon emissions from urbanization and storing water in the TGR area, which provides some fundamental supports for further ecological restoration and contributes to empowering land use policies towards carbon sequestration and storage at the regional scale.

Spatial and temporal variations in global soil respiration and their relationships with climate and land cover

Soil respiration (R _s) represents the largest flux of CO₂ from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, but its spatial and temporal changes as well as the driving forces are not well understood. We derived a product of annual global R _s from 2000 to 2014 at 1 km by 1 km spatial resolution using remote sensing data and biome-specific statistical models. Different from the existing view that climate change dominated changes in R _s, we showed that land-cover change played a more important role in regulating R _s changes in temperate and boreal regions during 2000-2014. Significant changes in R _s occurred more frequently in areas with significant changes in short vegetation cover (i.e., all vegetation shorter than 5 m in height) than in areas with significant climate change. These results contribute to our understanding of global R _s patterns and highlight the importance of land-cover change in driving global and regional R _s changes.

Complete Chloroplast Genome Sequence of a Black Spruce (Picea mariana) from Eastern Canada

Here, we present the chloroplast genome sequence of black spruce (Picea mariana), a conifer widely distributed throughout North American boreal forests. This complete and annotated chloroplast sequence is 123,961 bp long and will contribute to future studies on the genetic basis of evolutionary change in spruce and adaptation in conifers.

Siberian and temperate ecosystems shape Northern Hemisphere atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplification

The amplitude of the atmospheric CO2 seasonal cycle has increased by 30 to 50% in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) since the 1960s, suggesting widespread ecological changes in the northern extratropics. However, substantial uncertainty remains in the continental and regional drivers of this prominent amplitude increase. Here we present a quantitative regional attribution of CO2 seasonal amplification over the past 4 decades, using a tagged atmospheric transport model prescribed with observationally constrained fluxes. We find that seasonal flux changes in Siberian and temperate ecosystems together shape the observed amplitude increases in the NH. At the surface of northern high latitudes, enhanced seasonal carbon exchange in Siberia is the dominant contributor (followed by temperate ecosystems). Arctic-boreal North America shows much smaller changes in flux seasonality and has only localized impacts. These continental contrasts, based on an atmospheric approach, corroborate heterogeneous vegetation greening and browning trends from field and remote-sensing observations, providing independent evidence for regionally divergent ecological responses and carbon dynamics to global change drivers. Over surface midlatitudes and throughout the midtroposphere, increased seasonal carbon exchange in temperate ecosystems is the dominant contributor to CO2 amplification, albeit with considerable contributions from Siberia. Representing the mechanisms that control the high-latitude asymmetry in flux amplification found in this study should be an important goal for mechanistic land surface models moving forward.

Strong overestimation of water-use efficiency responses to rising CO2 in tree-ring studies

The carbon isotope ratio (δ¹³ C) in tree rings is commonly used to derive estimates of the assimilation-to-stomatal conductance rate of trees, that is, intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). Recent studies have observed increased iWUE in response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (C_a ), in many different species, genera and biomes. However, increasing rates of iWUE vary widely from one study to another, likely because numerous covarying factors are involved. Here, we quantified changes in iWUE of two widely distributed boreal conifers using tree samples from a forest inventory network that were collected across a wide range of growing conditions (assessed using the site index, SI), developmental stages and stand histories. Using tree-ring isotopes analysis, we assessed the magnitude of increase in iWUE after accounting for the effects of tree size, stand age, nitrogen deposition, climate and SI. We also estimated how growth conditions have modulated tree physiological responses to rising C_a . We found that increases in tree size and stand age greatly influenced iWUE. The effect of C_a on iWUE was strongly reduced after accounting for these two variables. iWUE increased in response to C_a , mostly in trees growing on fertile stands, whereas iWUE remained almost unchanged on poor sites. Our results suggest that past studies could have overestimated the CO₂ effect on iWUE, potentially leading to biased inferences about the future net carbon balance of the boreal forest. We also observed that this CO₂ effect is weakening, which could affect the future capacity of trees to resist and recover from drought episodes.

Adaptive genetic variation to drought in a widely distributed conifer suggests a potential for increasing forest resilience in a drying climate

Drought intensity and frequency are increasing under global warming, with soil water availability now being a major factor limiting tree growth in circumboreal forests. Still, the adaptive capacity of trees in the face of future climatic regimes remains poorly documented. Using 1481 annually resolved tree-ring series from 29-yr-old trees, we evaluated the drought sensitivity of 43 white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) populations established in a common garden experiment. We show that genetic variation among populations in response to drought plays a significant role in growth resilience. Local genetic adaptation allowed populations from drier geographical origins to grow better, as indicated by higher resilience to extreme drought events, compared with populations from more humid geographical origins. The substantial genetic variation found for growth resilience highlights the possibility of selecting for drought resilience in boreal conifers. As a major research outcome, we showed that adaptive genetic variation in response to changing local conditions can shape drought vulnerability at the intraspecific level. Our findings have wide implications for forest ecosystem management and conservation.

Contrasting acclimation responses to elevated CO2 and warming between an evergreen and a deciduous boreal conifer

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) concentrations may warm northern latitudes up to 8°C by the end of the century. Boreal forests play a large role in the global carbon cycle, and the responses of northern trees to climate change will thus impact the trajectory of future CO₂ increases. We grew two North American boreal tree species at a range of future climate conditions to assess how growth and carbon fluxes were altered by high CO₂ and warming. Black spruce (Picea mariana, an evergreen conifer) and tamarack (Larix laricina, a deciduous conifer) were grown under ambient (407 ppm) or elevated CO₂ (750 ppm) and either ambient temperatures, a 4°C warming, or an 8°C warming. In both species, the thermal optimum of net photosynthesis (T_optA ) increased and maximum photosynthetic rates declined in warm-grown seedlings, but the strength of these changes varied between species. Photosynthetic capacity (maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation, V_cmax , and of electron transport, J_max ) was reduced in warm-grown seedlings, correlating with reductions in leaf N and chlorophyll concentrations. Warming increased the activation energy for V_cmax and J_max (E_aV and E_aJ , respectively) and the thermal optimum for J_max . In both species, the T_optA was positively correlated with both E_aV and E_aJ , but negatively correlated with the ratio of J_max /V_cmax . Respiration acclimated to elevated temperatures, but there were no treatment effects on the Q₁₀ of respiration (the increase in respiration for a 10°C increase in leaf temperature). A warming of 4°C increased biomass in tamarack, while warming reduced biomass in spruce. We show that climate change is likely to negatively affect photosynthesis and growth in black spruce more than in tamarack, and that parameters used to model photosynthesis in dynamic global vegetation models (E_aV and E_aJ ) show no response to elevated CO₂ .

Simulation of climate change and thinning effects on productivity of Larix olgensis plantations in northeast China using 3-PGmix model

Understanding the effects of thinning on forest productivity under climate change is vital to adaptive forest management. In the present study, the 3-PG_mix model was applied to simulate the thinning effects on productivity of Larix olgensis plantations under climate change using 164 sample plots collected from the 6th, 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories in Jilin Province, northeast China. Climate scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were adopted from 2011 to 2100 with corresponding reference years (1981-2010). We simulated four cutting intensities: no-thinning, NT; low intensity thinning with 10% stem removal, LT; moderate thinning with 20% stem removal, MT and heavy thinning with 30% stem removal, HT for three times with 5- and 10-year thinning intervals. The results indicated that the mean net primary productivity (NPP) during the simulated 90 years was increased under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The LT and MT had positive but HT had negative effects on the mean NPP for the same climate scenario. Increased thinning intensity facilitated the positive effects of climate change on NPP but without a significant interaction effect. During the simulation, LT had the highest NPP value and HT had the biggest NPP increase under future climate change. We also discussed the management of larch plantations under climate change and advocated low intensity thinning with 10-year thinning interval to gain maximum NPP for mitigating climate change.

Long-term physiological and growth responses of Himalayan fir to environmental change are mediated by mean climate

High-elevation forests are experiencing high rates of warming, in combination with CO₂ rise and (sometimes) drying trends. In these montane systems, the effects of environmental changes on tree growth are also modified by elevation itself, thus complicating our ability to predict effects of future climate change. Tree-ring analysis along an elevation gradient allows quantifying effects of gradual and annual environmental changes. Here, we study long-term physiological (ratio of internal to ambient CO₂ , i.e., C_i /C_a and intrinsic water-use efficiency, iWUE) and growth responses (tree-ring width) of Himalayan fir (Abies spectabilis) trees in response to warming, drying, and CO₂ rise. Our study was conducted along elevational gradients in a dry and a wet region in the central Himalaya. We combined dendrochronology and stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³ C) to quantify long-term trends in C_i /C_a ratio and iWUE (δ¹³ C-derived), growth (mixed-effects models), and evaluate climate sensitivity (correlations). We found that iWUE increased over time at all elevations, with stronger increase in the dry region. Climate-growth relations showed growth-limiting effects of spring moisture (dry region) and summer temperature (wet region), and negative effects of temperature (dry region). We found negative growth trends at lower elevations (dry and wet regions), suggesting that continental-scale warming and regional drying reduced tree growth. This interpretation is supported by δ¹³ C-derived long-term physiological responses, which are consistent with responses to reduced moisture and increased vapor pressure deficit. At high elevations (wet region), we found positive growth trends, suggesting that warming has favored tree growth in regions where temperature most strongly limits growth. At lower elevations (dry and wet regions), the positive effects of CO₂ rise did not mitigate the negative effects of warming and drying on tree growth. Our results raise concerns on the productivity of Himalayan fir forests at low and middle (<3,300 m) elevations as climate change progresses.

Wood anatomical traits in black spruce reveal latent water constraints on the boreal forest

The effects of climate change on high-latitude forest ecosystems are complex, making forecasts of future scenarios uncertain. The predicted lengthening of the growing season under warming conditions is expected to increase tree growth rates. However, there is evidence of an increasing sensitivity of the boreal forest to drought stress. To assess the influence of temperature and precipitation on the growth of black spruce (Picea mariana), we investigated long-term series of wood anatomical traits on 20 trees from four sites along 600 km, the latitudinal range of the closed boreal forest in Quebec, Canada. We correlated the anatomical traits resolved at intraring level with daily temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and precipitation during the 1943-2010 period. Tree-ring width, number of cells per ring and cell wall thickness were positively affected by spring and summer daily mean and maximum temperature at the northern sites. These results agree with the well-known positive effect of high temperatures on tree ring formation at high latitudes. However, we captured, for the first time in this region, the latent impact of water availability on xylem traits. Indeed, in all the four sites, cell lumen area showed positive correlations with daily precipitation (mostly at low latitude), and/or negative correlations with daily mean and maximum temperature and VPD (mostly at high latitude). We inferred that drought, due to high temperatures, low precipitations, or both, negatively affects cell enlargement across the closed boreal forest, including the northernmost sites. The production of tracheids with narrower lumen, potentially more resistant to cavitation, could increase xylem hydraulic safety under a warmer and drier climate. However, this would result in lower xylem conductivity, with consequent long-term hydraulic deterioration, growth decline, and possibly lead to tree dieback, as observed in other forest ecosystems at lower latitudes.

Comparing the Cell Dynamics of Tree-Ring Formation Observed in Microcores and as Predicted by the Vaganov-Shashkin Model

New insights into the intra-annual dynamics of tree-ring formation can improve our understanding of tree-growth response to environmental conditions at high-resolution time scales. Obtaining this information requires, however, a weekly monitoring of wood formation, sampling that is extremely time-intensive and scarcely feasible over vast areas. Estimating the timing of cambial and xylem differentiation by modeling thus represents an interesting alternative for obtaining this important information by other means. Temporal dynamics of cambial divisions can be extracted from the daily tree-ring growth rate computed by the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) simulation model, assuming that cell production is tightly linked to tree-ring growth. Nonetheless, these predictions have yet to be compared with direct observations of wood development, i.e., via microcoring, over a long time span. We tested the performance of the VS model by comparing the observed and predicted timing of wood formation in black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.)]. We obtained microcores over 15 years at 5 sites along a latitudinal gradient in Quebec (Canada). The measured variables included cell size and the timing of cell production and differentiation. We calibrated the VS model using daily temperature and precipitation recorded by weather stations located on each site. The predicted and observed timing of cambial and enlarging cells were highly correlated (R ² = 0.8); nonetheless, we detected a systematic overestimation in the predicted timing of cambial cells, with predictions delayed by 1-20 days compared with observations. The growth rate of cell diameter was correlated with the predicted growth rate assigned to each cambial cell, confirming that cell diameter developmental dynamics have the potential to be inferred by the tree-ring growth curve of the VS model. Model performances decrease substantially in estimating the end of wood formation. The systematic errors suggest that the actual relationships implemented in the model are unable to explain the phenological events in autumn. The mismatch between the observed and predicted timing of wood formation in black spruce within our study area can be reduced by better adapting the VS model to wet sites, a context for which this model has been rarely used.

Complementarity effects are strengthened by competition intensity and global environmental change in the central boreal forests of Canada

Increases in niche complementarity have been hypothesised to reduce the intensity of interspecific competition within natural forests. In regions currently experiencing potentially enhanced growth under global environmental change, niche complementarity may become even more beneficial. However, few studies have provided direct evidence of this mechanism. Here, we use data from 180 permanent sample plots in Manitoba, Canada, with a full spatial mapping of all stems, to show that complementarity effects on average increased with neighbourhood competition intensity and temporally rising CO₂ , warming and water availability. Importantly, complementarity effects increased with both shade tolerance and phylogenetic dissimilarity between the focal tree and its neighbours. Our results provide further evidence that increasing stand functional and phylogenetic diversity can improve individual tree productivity, especially for individuals experiencing intense competition and may offer an avenue to maintain productivity under global environmental change.

Divergent long-term trends and interannual variation in ecosystem resource use efficiencies of a southern boreal old black spruce forest 1999-2017

Long-term trends in ecosystem resource use efficiencies (RUEs) and their controlling factors are key pieces of information for understanding how an ecosystem responds to climate change. We used continuous eddy covariance and microclimate data over the period 1999-2017 from a 120-year-old black spruce stand in central Saskatchewan, Canada, to assess interannual variability, long-term trends, and key controlling factors of gross ecosystem production (GEP) and the RUEs of carbon (CUE = net primary production [NPP]/GEP), light (LUE = GEP/absorbed photosynthetic radiation [APAR]), and water (WUE = GEP/evapotranspiration [E]). At this site, annual GEP has shown an increasing trend over the 19 years (p < 0.01), which may be attributed to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Interannual variability in GEP, aside from its increasing trend, was most strongly related to spring temperatures. Associated with the significant increase in annual GEP were relatively small changes in NPP, APAR, and E, so that annual CUE showed a decreasing trend and annual LUE and WUE showed increasing trends over the 19 years. The long-term trends in the RUEs were related to the increasing CO₂ concentration. Further analysis of detrended RUEs showed that their interannual variation was impacted most strongly by air temperature. Two-factor linear models combining CO₂ concentration and air temperature performed well (R² ~0.60) in simulating annual RUEs. LUE and WUE were positively correlated both annually and seasonally, while LUE and CUE were mostly negatively correlated. Our results showed divergent long-term trends among CUE, LUE, and WUE and highlighted the need to account for the combined effects of climatic controls and the 'CO₂ fertilization effect' on long-term variations in RUEs. Since most RUE-based models rely primarily on one resource limitation, the observed patterns of relative change among the three RUEs may have important implications for RUE-based modeling of C fluxes.

Tree rings provide no evidence of a CO2 fertilization effect in old-growth subalpine forests of western Canada

Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are now 1.7 times higher than the preindustrial values. Although photosynthetic rates are hypothesized to increase in response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, results from in situ experiments are inconsistent in supporting a CO₂ fertilization effect of tree growth. Tree-ring data provide a historical record of tree-level productivity that can be used to evaluate long-term responses of tree growth. We use tree-ring data from old-growth, subalpine forests of western Canada that have not had a stand-replacing disturbance for hundreds of years to determine if growth has increased over 19th and 20th centuries. Our sample consisted of 5,858 trees belonging to five species distributed over two sites in the coastal zone and two in the continental climate of the interior. We calculated annual increments in tree basal area, adjusted these increments for tree size and age, and tested whether there was a detectable temporal trend in tree growth over the 19th and 20th centuries. We found a similar pattern in 20th century growth trends among all species at all sites. Growth during the 19th century was mostly stable or increasing, with the exception of one of the coastal sites, where tree growth was slightly decreasing; whereas growth during the 20th century consistently decreased. The unexpected decrease in growth during the 20th century indicates that there was no CO₂ fertilization effect on photosynthesis. We compared the growth trends from our four sites to the trends simulated by seven Earth System Models, and saw that most of the models did not predict these growth declines. Overall, our results indicate that these old-growth forests are unlikely to increase their carbon storage capacity in response to rising atmospheric CO₂ , and thus are unlikely to contribute substantially to offsetting future carbon emissions.

North America's oldest boreal trees are more efficient water users due to increased [CO2], but do not grow faster

Due to anthropogenic emissions and changes in land use, trees are now exposed to atmospheric levels of [[Formula: see text]] that are unprecedented for 650,000 y [Lüthi et al. (2008) Nature 453:379-382] (thousands of tree generations). Trees are expected to acclimate by modulating leaf-gas exchanges and alter water use efficiency which may result in forest productivity changes. Here, we present evidence of one of the strongest, nonlinear, and unequivocal postindustrial increases in intrinsic water use efficiency ([Formula: see text]) ever documented (+59%). A dual-isotope tree-ring analysis ([Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]) covering 715 y of growth of North America's oldest boreal trees (Thuja occidentalis L.) revealed an unprecedented increase in [Formula: see text] that was directly linked to elevated assimilation rates of [Formula: see text] (A). However, limited nutrient availability, changes in carbon allocation strategies, and changes in stomatal density may have offset stem growth benefits awarded by the increased [Formula: see text] Our results demonstrate that even in scenarios where a positive [Formula: see text] fertilization effect is observed, other mechanisms may prevent trees from assimilating and storing supplementary anthropogenic emissions as above-ground biomass. In such cases, the sink capacity of forests in response to changing atmospheric conditions might be overestimated.

Twentieth century redistribution in climatic drivers of global tree growth

Energy and water limitations of tree growth remain insufficiently understood at large spatiotemporal scales, hindering model representation of interannual or longer-term ecosystem processes. By assessing and statistically scaling the climatic drivers from 2710 tree-ring sites, we identified the boreal and temperate land areas where tree growth during 1930-1960 CE responded positively to temperature (20.8 ± 3.7 Mio km²; 25.9 ± 4.6%), precipitation (77.5 ± 3.3 Mio km²; 96.4 ± 4.1%), and other parameters. The spatial manifestation of this climate response is determined by latitudinal and altitudinal temperature gradients, indicating that warming leads to geographic shifts in growth limitations. We observed a significant (P < 0.001) decrease in temperature response at cold-dry sites between 1930-1960 and 1960-1990 CE, and the total temperature-limited area shrunk by -8.7 ± 0.6 Mio km². Simultaneously, trees became more limited by atmospheric water demand almost worldwide. These changes occurred under mild warming, and we expect that continued climate change will trigger a major redistribution in growth responses to climate.

Can Future CO2 Concentrations Mitigate the Negative Effects of High Temperature and Longer Droughts on Forest Growth?

(1) Background: Climate change may subject forests to climate conditions to which they are not adapted. Elevated temperatures can potentially reduce net photosynthesis by increasing respiration rates and increasingly long droughts dramatically increase morbidity. While CO2 enrichment enhances productivity, it is not clear to what extent CO2 enrichment can offset the negative effects of elevated temperatures and longer droughts; (2) Methods: We used a mechanistic landscape model to conduct controlled simulation experiments manipulating CO2 concentration, temperature, drought length and soil water capacity; (3) Results: We found that elevated CO2 stimulates productivity such that it dwarfs the negative effect caused by elevated temperature. Energy reserves were not as strongly mitigated by elevated CO2, and the mortality of less competitive cohorts increased. Drought length had a surprisingly small effect on productivity measures, but longer droughts increased the risk of mortality; (4) Conclusions: Elevated CO2 compensated for the negative effect of longer droughts in terms of productivity measures, but not survival measures.

Current and projected cumulative impacts of fire, drought, and insects on timber volumes across Canada

Canada's forests are shaped by disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and droughts that often overlap in time and space. The resulting cumulative disturbance risks and potential impacts on forests are generally not well accounted for by models used to predict future impacts of disturbances on forest. This study aims at projecting future cumulative effects of four main natural disturbances, fire, mountain pine beetle, spruce budworm and drought, on timber volumes across Canada's forests using an approach that accounts for potential overlap among disturbances. Available predictive models for the four natural disturbances were used to project timber volumes at risk under aggressive climate forcing up to 2100. Projections applied to the current vegetation suggest increases of volumes at risk related to fire, mountain pine beetle, and drought over time in many regions of Canada, but a decrease of the volume at risk related to spruce budworm. When disturbance effects are accumulated, important changes in volumes at risk are projected to occur as early as 2011-2041, particularly in central and eastern Canada. In our last simulation period covering 2071-2100, nearly all timber volumes in most of Canada's forest regions could be at risk of being affected by at least one of the four natural disturbances considered in our analysis, a six-fold increase relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Tree species particularly vulnerable to specific disturbances (e.g., trembling aspen to drought) could suffer disproportionate increases in their volume at risk with potential impacts on forest composition. By 2100, estimated wood volumes not considered to be at risk could be lower than current annual timber harvests in central and eastern Canada. Current level of harvesting could thus be difficult to maintain without the implementation of adaptation measures to cope with these disturbances.

Detecting early warning signals of tree mortality in boreal North America using multiscale satellite data

Increasing tree mortality from global change drivers such as drought and biotic infestations is a widespread phenomenon, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and improve mortality forecasts: repeat forest inventories and satellite remote sensing. Time series of tree-level growth patterns indicate that productivity declines and related temporal dynamics often precede mortality years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 24 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range of forest conditions and spatial resolution to highlight the sensitivity and limitations of our approach. Overall, results indicate potential to use satellite NDVI for early warning signals of mortality. Relationships are broadly consistent across inventories, species, and spatial resolutions, although the utility of coarse-scale imagery in the heterogeneous aspen parkland was limited. Longer-term NDVI data and annually remeasured sites with high mortality levels generate the strongest signals, although we still found robust relationships at sites remeasured at a typical 5 year frequency. The approach and relationships developed here can be used as a basis for improving forest mortality models and monitoring systems.

Contrasting drivers and trends of coniferous and deciduous tree growth in interior Alaska

The boreal biome represents approximately one third of the world's forested area and plays an important role in global biogeochemical and energy cycles. Numerous studies in boreal Alaska have concluded that growth of black and white spruce is declining as a result of temperature-induced drought stress. The combined evidence of declining spruce growth and changes in the fire regime that favor establishment of deciduous tree species has led some investigators to suggest the region may be transitioning from dominance by spruce to dominance by deciduous forests and/or grasslands. Although spruce growth trends have been extensively investigated, few studies have evaluated long-term radial growth trends of the dominant deciduous species (Alaska paper birch and trembling aspen) and their sensitivity to moisture availability. We used a large and spatially extensive sample of tree cores from interior Alaska to compare long-term growth trends among contrasting tree species (white and black spruce vs. birch and aspen). All species showed a growth peak in the mid-1940s, although growth following the peak varied strongly across species. Following an initial decline from the peak, growth of white spruce showed little evidence of a trend, while black spruce and birch growth showed slight growth declines from ~1970 to present. Aspen growth was much more variable than the other species and showed a steep decline from ~1970 to present. Growth of birch, black and white spruce was sensitive to moisture availability throughout most of the tree-ring chronologies, as evidenced by negative correlations with air temperature and positive correlations with precipitation. However, a positive correlation between previous July precipitation and aspen growth disappeared in recent decades, corresponding with a rise in the population of the aspen leaf miner (Phyllocnistis populiella), an herbivorous moth, which may have driven growth to a level not seen since the early 20th century. Our results provide important historical context for recent growth and raise questions regarding competitive interactions among the dominant tree species and exchanges of carbon and energy in the warming climate of interior Alaska.

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.

Extracting coherent tree-ring climatic signals across spatial scales from extensive forest inventory data

Increasing access to extensively replicated and broadly distributed tree-ring collections has led to a greater use of these large data sets to investigate climate forcing on tree growth. However, the number of chronologies added to large accessible databases is declining and few are updated, while chronologies are often sparsely distributed and are more representative of marginal growing environments. On the other hand, National Forest Inventories (NFI), although poorly replicated at the plot level as compared to classic dendrochronological sampling, contain a large amount of tree-ring data with high spatial density designed to be spatially representative of the forest cover. We propose an a posteriori approach to validating tree-ring measurements and dating, selecting individual tree-ring width time series, and building average chronologies at various spatial scales based on an extensive collection of ring width measurements of nearly 94,000 black spruce trees distributed over a wide area and collected as part of the NFI in the province of Quebec, Canada. Our results show that reliable signals may be derived at various spatial scales (from 37 to 583,000 km²) from NFI increment core samples. Signals from independently built chronologies are spatially coherent with each other and well-correlated with independent reference chronologies built at the stand level. We thus conclude that tree-ring data from NFIs provide an extraordinary opportunity to strengthen the spatial and temporal coverage of tree-ring data and to improve coordination with other contemporary measurements of forest growth to provide a better understanding of tree growth-climate relationships over broad spatial scales.

Weather-driven change in primary productivity explains variation in the amplitude of two herbivore population cycles in a boreal system

Vertebrate populations throughout the circumpolar north often exhibit cyclic dynamics, and predation is generally considered to be a primary driver of these cycles in a variety of herbivore species. However, weather and climate play a role in entraining cycles over broad landscapes and may alter cyclic dynamics, although the mechanism by which these processes operate is uncertain. Experimental and observational work has suggested that weather influences primary productivity over multi-year time periods, suggesting a pathway through which weather and climate may influence cyclic herbivore dynamics. Using long-term monitoring data, we investigated the relationships among multi-year weather conditions, measures of primary productivity, and the abundance of two cyclic herbivore species: snowshoe hare and northern red-backed vole. We found that precipitation (rain and snow) and growing season temperatures were strongly associated with variation in primary productivity over multi-year time horizons. In turn, fourfold variation in the amplitude of both the hare and vole cycles observed in our study area corresponded to long-term changes in primary productivity. The congruence of our results for these two species suggests a general mechanism by which weather and climate might influence cyclic herbivore population dynamics. Our findings also suggested that the association between climate warming and the disappearance of cycles might be initiated by changes in primary productivity. This work provides an explanation for observed influences of weather and climate on primary productivity and population cycles and will help our collective understanding of how future climate warming may influence these ecological phenomena in the future.

Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw-induced collapse-scar bog ('wetland') expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape-scale net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE_LAND ), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEE_LAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature- and light-limited NEE_LAND of a boreal forest-wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEE_LAND (-20 g C m^-2 ) and wetland NEE (-24 g C m^-2 ) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEE_LAND . In contrast, we find non-negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEE_LAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light-limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year-round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO₂ uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO₂ uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m^-2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m^-2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO₂ uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO₂ uptake of boreal forest-wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO₂ sources under continued anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. We conclude that NEE_LAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts.