Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

Can we identify tipping points of resilience loss in Mediterranean rangelands under increased summer drought?

Mediterranean ecosystems are predicted to undergo longer and more intense summer droughts. The mechanisms underlying the response of herbaceous communities to such drier environments should be investigated to identify the resilience thresholds of Mediterranean rangelands. A 5-year experiment was conducted in deep and shallow soil rangelands of southern France. A rainout shelter for 75 days in summer imposed drier and warmer conditions. Total soil water content was measured monthly to model available daily soil water. Aboveground net primary production (ANPP), forage quality, and the proportion of graminoids in ANPP were measured in spring and autumn. Plant senescence and plant cover were assessed in summer and spring, respectively. The experimental years were among the driest ever recorded at the site. Therefore, manipulated summer droughts were drier than long-term ambient conditions. Interactions between treatment, community type, and experimental year were found for most variables. In shallow soil communities, spring plant cover decreased markedly with time. This legacy effect, driven by summer plant mortality and the loss of perennial graminoids, led to an abrupt loss of resilience when the extreme water stress index exceeded 37 mm 10 day-1, characterized by a reduction of spring plant cover below 50% and a decreased ANPP in rainy years. Conversely, the ANPP of deep soil communities remained unaffected by increased summer drought, although the presence of graminoids increased and forage nutritive value decreased. This study highlights the role of the soil water reserve of Mediterranean plant communities in modulating ecosystem responses to chronically intensified summer drought. Communities on deep soils were resilient, but communities on shallow soils showed a progressive, rapid, and intense degradation associated with a loss of resilience capacity. Notably, indexes of extreme stress were a better indicator of tipping points than indexes of integrated annual stress. Considering the role of soil water availability in other herbaceous ecosystems should improve the ability to predict the resilience of plant communities under climate change.

Physiological Responses of C4 Perennial Bioenergy Grasses to Climate Change: Causes, Consequences, and Constraints

C4 perennial bioenergy grasses are an economically and ecologically important group whose responses to climate change will be important to the future bioeconomy. These grasses are highly productive and frequently possess large geographic ranges and broad environmental tolerances, which may contribute to the evolution of ecotypes that differ in physiological acclimation capacity and the evolution of distinct functional strategies. C4 perennial bioenergy grasses are predicted to thrive under climate change-C4 photosynthesis likely evolved to enhance photosynthetic efficiency under stressful conditions of low [CO2], high temperature, and drought-although few studies have examined how these species will respond to combined stresses or to extremes of temperature and precipitation. Important targets for C4 perennial bioenergy production in a changing world, such as sustainability and resilience, can benefit from combining knowledge of C4 physiology with recent advances in crop improvement, especially genomic selection.

Threshold response of ecosystem water use efficiency to soil water in an alpine meadow

Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) is a coupled index of carbon (gross ecosystem productivity, GEP) and water fluxes (transpiration, Tr or evapotranspiration, ET), reflecting how ecosystem uses water efficiently to increase its carbon uptake. Though ecosystem WUE is generally considered to decrease with increasing precipitation levels, it remains elusive whether and how it nonlinearly responds to extreme water changes. Here, we performed a 5-year precipitation halving experiment in an alpine meadow, combined with extremely interannual precipitation fluctuations, to create a large range of soil water variations. Our results showed that WUETr and WUEET consistently showed a quadratic pattern in response to soil water. Such quadratic patterns were steadily held at different stages of growing seasons, with minor changes in the optimal water thresholds (25.0-28.4 %). Below the water threshold, more soil water stimulated GEP but reduced Tr and ET by lowering soil temperature, resulting in a positive response of ecosystem WUE to soil water. Above the threshold, soil water stimulated GEP less than Tr (ET), leading to a negative response of ecosystem WUE to soil water. However, biological processes, including plant cover and belowground biomass as well as vertical root biomass distribution, had less effect on ecosystem WUE. Overall, this work is among the first to reveal the nonlinearity and optimal water thresholds of ecosystem WUE across a broad range of soil water, suggesting that future extreme precipitation events will more frequently surpass the water threshold and differently change the coupling relationships of carbon and water fluxes in alpine grasslands.

Dryland sensitivity to climate change and variability using nonlinear dynamics

Primary productivity response to climatic drivers varies temporally, indicating state-dependent interactions between climate and productivity. Previous studies primarily employed equation-based approaches to clarify this relationship, ignoring the state-dependent nature of ecological dynamics. Here, using 40 y of climate and productivity data from 48 grassland sites across Mongolia, we applied an equation-free, nonlinear time-series analysis to reveal sensitivity patterns of productivity to climate change and variability and clarify underlying mechanisms. We showed that productivity responded positively to annual precipitation in mesic regions but negatively in arid regions, with the opposite pattern observed for annual mean temperature. Furthermore, productivity responded negatively to decreasing annual aridity that integrated precipitation and temperature across Mongolia. Productivity responded negatively to interannual variability in precipitation and aridity in mesic regions but positively in arid regions. Overall, interannual temperature variability enhanced productivity. These response patterns are largely unrecognized; however, two mechanisms are inferable. First, time-delayed climate effects modify annual productivity responses to annual climate conditions. Notably, our results suggest that the sensitivity of annual productivity to increasing annual precipitation and decreasing annual aridity can even be negative when the negative time-delayed effects of annual precipitation and aridity on productivity prevail across time. Second, the proportion of plant species resistant to water and temperature stresses at a site determines the sensitivity of productivity to climate variability. Thus, we highlight the importance of nonlinear, state-dependent sensitivity of productivity to climate change and variability, accurately forecasting potential biosphere feedback to the climate system.

Responses of Ephemeral Plants to Precipitation Changes and Their Effects on Community in Central Asia Cold Desert

In the context of global climate change, changes in precipitation patterns will have profound effects on desert plants, particularly on shallow-rooted plants, such as ephemeral plants. Therefore, we conducted an experiment on artificial control of precipitation for four dominant ephemeral plants, Erodium oxyrhinchum, Alyssum linifolium, Malcolmia scorpioides, and Hyalea pulchella, in the southern edge of Gurbantunggut Desert. We measured the importance value and some growth parameters of the four species under increased or decreased precipitation and constructed trait correlation networks for each of the four species. We also compared the response of increased or decreased precipitation to vegetation coverage. The results show that drought significantly reduced the survival rate, seed production and weight, and aboveground biomass accumulation of ephemeral plants. The four ephemeral plants showed different tolerance and response strategies to precipitation changes. E. oxyrhinchum and M. scorpioides can avoid drought by accelerating life history, and E. oxyrhinchum, A. linifolium, and H. pulchella can alleviate the negative effects of drought by adjusting leaf traits. However, the response of different species to the wet treatment was not consistent. Based on the results of the trait correlation network, we consider A. linifolium belongs to the ruderal plant, E. oxyrhinchum and M. scorpioides belong to the competitive plants, and H. pulchella belongs to the stress-tolerant plant. The outstanding trait coordination ability of E. oxyrhinchum makes it show absolute dominance in the community. This indicate that ephemeral plants can adapt to precipitation changes to a certain extent, and that distinct competitive advantages in growth or reproduction enabled species coexistence in the same ecological niche. Nevertheless, drought significantly reduces their community cover and the ecological value of ephemeral plants. These findings established the basis to predict vegetation dynamics in arid areas under precipitation changes.

Climate and fire impacts on tree recruitment in mixed conifer forests in northwestern Mexico and California

Frequent-fire forests were once heterogeneous at multiple spatial scales, which contributed to their resilience to severe fire. While many studies have characterized historical spatial patterns in frequent-fire forests, fewer studies have investigated their temporal dynamics. We investigated the influences of fire and climate on the timing of conifer recruitment in old-growth Jeffrey pine-mixed conifer forests in the Sierra San Pedro Martir (SSPM) and the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada. Additionally, we evaluated the impacts of fire exclusion and recent climate change on recruitment levels using statistical models with realized as well as fire suppression and climate change-free counterfactual scenarios. Excessive soil drying from anthropogenic climate change resulted in diminished recruitment in the SSPM but not in the Sierra Nevada. Longer fire-free intervals attributable to fire suppression and exclusion resulted in greater rates of recruitment across all sites but was particularly pronounced in the Sierra Nevada, where suppression began >100 years ago and recruitment was 28 times higher than the historical fire return interval scenario. This demonstrates the profound impact of fire's removal on tree recruitment in Sierra Nevada forests even in the context of recent climate change. Tree recruitment at the SSPM coincided with the early-20th-century North American pluvial, as well as a fire-quiescent period in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. Episodic recruitment occurred in the SSPM with no "average" recruitment over the last three centuries. We found that temporal heterogeneity, in conjunction with spatial heterogeneity, are critical components of frequent-fire-adapted forests. Episodic recruitment could be a desirable characteristic of frequent-fire-adapted forests, and this might be more amenable to climate change impacts that forecast more variable precipitation patterns in the future. One key to this outcome would be for frequent fire to continue to shape these forests versus continued emphasis on fire suppression in California.

When things get MESI: The Manipulation Experiments Synthesis Initiative-A coordinated effort to synthesize terrestrial global change experiments

Responses of the terrestrial biosphere to rapidly changing environmental conditions are a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. In an effort to reduce this uncertainty, a wide range of global change experiments have been conducted that mimic future conditions in terrestrial ecosystems, manipulating CO₂ , temperature, and nutrient and water availability. Syntheses of results across experiments provide a more general sense of ecosystem responses to global change, and help to discern the influence of background conditions such as climate and vegetation type in determining global change responses. Several independent syntheses of published data have yielded distinct databases for specific objectives. Such parallel, uncoordinated initiatives carry the risk of producing redundant data collection efforts and have led to contrasting outcomes without clarifying the underlying reason for divergence. These problems could be avoided by creating a publicly available, updatable, curated database. Here, we report on a global effort to collect and curate 57,089 treatment responses across 3644 manipulation experiments at 1145 sites, simulating elevated CO₂ , warming, nutrient addition, and precipitation changes. In the resulting Manipulation Experiments Synthesis Initiative (MESI) database, effects of experimental global change drivers on carbon and nutrient cycles are included, as well as ancillary data such as background climate, vegetation type, treatment magnitude, duration, and, unique to our database, measured soil properties. Our analysis of the database indicates that most experiments are short term (one or few growing seasons), conducted in the USA, Europe, or China, and that the most abundantly reported variable is aboveground biomass. We provide the most comprehensive multifactor global change database to date, enabling the research community to tackle open research questions, vital to global policymaking. The MESI database, freely accessible at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7153253, opens new avenues for model evaluation and synthesis-based understanding of how global change affects terrestrial biomes. We welcome contributions to the database on GitHub.

Seedbed not rescue effect buffer the role of extreme precipitation on temperate forest regeneration

Alterations in global climate via extreme precipitation will have broadscale implications on ecosystem functioning. The increased frequency of drought, coupled with heavy, episodic rainfall are likely to generate impacts on biotic and abiotic processes across aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Despite the demonstrated shifts in global precipitation, less is known how extreme precipitation interacts with biophysical factors to control future demographic processes, especially those sensitive to climate extremes such as organismal recruitment and survival. We utilized a field-based precipitation manipulation experiment in 0.1 ha forest canopy openings to test future climate scenarios characterized by extreme precipitation on temperate tree seedling survival. The effects of planting seedbeds (undisturbed leaf litter/organic material vs. scarified, exposed mineral soils), seedling ontogeny, species, and functional traits were examined against four statistically defined precipitation scenarios. Results indicated that seedlings grown within precipitation treatments characterized by heavy, episodic rainfall preceded by prolonged drying responded similarly to drought treatments lacking episodic inputs. Moreover, among all treatment conditions tested, scarified seedbeds most strongly affected seedling survivorship (odds ratio 6.9). Compared with any precipitation treatment, the effect size (predicted probabilities) of the seedbed was more than twice as important in controlling seedling survivorship. However, the interaction between precipitation and seedbed resulted in a 27.9% improvement in survivorship for moisture-sensitive species. Seedling sensitivity to moisture was variable among species, and most closely linked with functional traits such as seed mass. For instance, under dry moisture regimes, survivorship increased linearly with seed mass (log transformed; adjusted R²  = 0.72, p < 0.001), yet no relationship was apparent under wet moisture regimes. Although precipitation influenced survival, extreme rainfall events were not enough to offset moisture deficits nor provide a rescue effect under drought conditions. The relationships reported here highlight the importance of plant seedbeds and species (e.g., functional traits) as edaphic and biotic controls that modify the influence of extreme future precipitation on seedling survival in temperate forests. Finally, we demonstrated the biophysical factors that were most influential to early forest development and that may override the negative effects of increasingly variable precipitation. This work contributes to refinements of species distribution models and can inform reforestation strategies intended to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function under increasing climate extremes.

The cumulative impacts of anthropogenic stressors vary markedly along environmental gradients

Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on biodiversity is key to managing their impacts. Stressor interactions are often studied using an additive/antagonistic/synergistic typology, aimed at identifying situations where individual stressor effects are reduced or amplified when they act in combination. Here, we analysed variation in the family richness of stream macroinvertebrates in the groups Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) at 4658 sites spanning a 32° latitudinal range in eastern Australia in relation to two largely human-induced stressors, salinity and turbidity, and two environmental gradients, temperature and slope. The cumulative and interactive effect of salinity and turbidity on EPT family richness varied across the landscape and by habitat (edge or riffle) such that we observed additive, antagonistic and synergistic outcomes depending on the environmental context. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the consistency of multiple stressor impacts, which will involve higher-order interactions between multiple stressors and environmental factors.

Legacies of precipitation influence primary production in Panicum virgatum

Precipitation is a key driver of primary production worldwide, but primary production does not always track year-to-year variation in precipitation linearly. Instead, plant responses to changes in precipitation may exhibit time lags, or legacies of past precipitation. Legacies can be driven by multiple mechanisms, including persistent changes in plant physiological and morphological traits and changes to the physical environment, such as plant access to soil water. We used three precipitation manipulation experiments in central Texas, USA to evaluate the magnitude, duration, and potential mechanisms driving precipitation legacies on aboveground primary production of the perennial C₄ grass, Panicum virgatum. Specifically, we performed a rainout shelter study, where eight genotypes grew under different precipitation regimes; a transplant study, where plants that had previously grown in a rainout shelter under different precipitation regimes were moved to a common environment; and a mesocosm study, where the effect of swapping precipitation regime was examined with a single genotype. Across these experiments, plants previously grown under wet conditions generally performed better than expected when exposed to drought. Panicum virgatum exhibited stronger productivity legacies of past wet years on current-year responses to drought than of past dry years on current-year responses to wet conditions. Additionally, previous year tiller counts, a proxy for meristem availability, were important in determining legacy effects on aboveground production. As climate changes and precipitation extremes-both dry and wet-become more common, these results suggest that populations of P. virgatum may become less resilient.

Intensive grassland management disrupts below-ground multi-trophic resource transfer in response to drought

Modification of soil food webs by land management may alter the response of ecosystem processes to climate extremes, but empirical support is limited and the mechanisms involved remain unclear. Here we quantify how grassland management modifies the transfer of recent photosynthates and soil nitrogen through plants and soil food webs during a post-drought period in a controlled field experiment, using in situ ¹³C and ¹⁵N pulse-labelling in intensively and extensively managed fields. We show that intensive management decrease plant carbon (C) capture and its transfer through components of food webs and soil respiration compared to extensive management. We observe a legacy effect of drought on C transfer pathways mainly in intensively managed grasslands, by increasing plant C assimilation and ¹³C released as soil CO₂ efflux but decreasing its transfer to roots, bacteria and Collembola. Our work provides insight into the interactive effects of grassland management and drought on C transfer pathways, and highlights that capture and rapid transfer of photosynthates through multi-trophic networks are key for maintaining grassland resistance to drought.

Effects of drought on grassland phenology depend on functional types

Shifts in flowering phenology are important indicators of climate change. However, the role of precipitation in driving phenology is far less understood compared with other environmental cues, such as temperature. We use a precipitation reduction gradient to test the direction and magnitude of effects on reproductive phenology and reproduction across 11 plant species in a temperate grassland, a moisture-limited ecosystem. Our experiment was conducted in a single, relatively wet year. We examine the effects of precipitation for species, functional types, and the community. Our results provide evidence that reduced precipitation shifts phenology, alters flower and fruit production, and that the magnitude and direction of the responses depend on functional type and species. For example, early-blooming species shift toward earlier flowering, whereas later-blooming species shift toward later flowering. Because of opposing species-level shifts, there is no overall shift in community-level phenology. This study provides experimental evidence that changes in rainfall can drive phenological shifts. Our results additionally highlight the importance of understanding how plant functional types govern responses to changing climate conditions, which is relevant for forecasting phenology and community-level changes. Specifically, the implications of divergent phenological shifts between early- and late-flowering species include resource scarcity for pollinators and seed dispersers and new temporal windows for invasion.

The Future of Invasion Science Needs Physiology

Incorporating physiology into models of population dynamics will improve our understanding of how and why invasions succeed and cause ecological impacts, whereas others fail or remain innocuous. Targeting both organismal physiologists and invasion scientists, we detail how physiological processes affect every invasion stage, for both plants and animals, and how physiological data can be better used for studying the spatial dynamics and ecological effects of invasive species. We suggest six steps to quantify the physiological functions related to demography of nonnative species: justifying physiological traits of interest, determining ecologically appropriate time frames, identifying relevant abiotic variables, designing experimental treatments that capture covariation between abiotic variables, measuring physiological responses to these abiotic variables, and fitting statistical models to the data. We also provide brief guidance on approaches to modeling invasions. Finally, we emphasize the benefits of integrating research between communities of physiologists and invasion scientists.

Effect of Nitrogen Application on the Sensitivity of Desert Shrub Community Productivity to Precipitation in Central Asia

Precipitation variability and nitrogen (N) deposition caused by anthropogenic activities could profoundly impact ecosystem productivity and carbon cycling. In desert ecosystems, vegetation is sensitive to changes in precipitation and N deposition. However, the impacts of large changes in precipitation, especially with a concurrent increase in N content, on plant community remain unclear. In this study, we carried out experiments to monitor the impacts of five precipitation levels and two N levels on the plant community function and composition from the Junggar desert in Central Asia during the period 2018-2019. Our results showed that: (1) Aboveground net primary production (ANPP) significantly increased with increasing precipitation, it followed a positive linear model under normal precipitation range, and nonlinear mode under extreme precipitation events; (2) N application led to an increase in ANPP, but did not significantly improve the sensitivity of ANPP to precipitation change; (3) Changes in N content and precipitation, and their impacts on ANPP were mainly driven by plant density. These results provide a theoretical basis for predict the future dynamics of terrestrial vegetation more accurately under climate change and increasing nitrogen deposition.

Increase in rainfall intensity promotes soil nematode diversity but offset by nitrogen addition in a temperate grassland

Precipitation regime in arid and semi-arid regions is exhibiting a trend of increase in rainfall intensity but reduction in frequency under global climate change. In addition, nitrogen (N) deposition occurs simultaneously in the same regions. Nematodes are the dominant soil biota in terrestrial ecosystems and are involved in various underground processes. How the diversity of nematode communities responds to changing precipitation regime and how N deposition regulates the responses remain unclear. Here, we performed a field experiment initiated in 2012 to examine the effect of changes in the precipitation regime (2 mm precipitation intensity, 5 mm precipitation intensity, 10 mm precipitation intensity, 20 mm precipitation intensity, and 40 mm precipitation intensity) and N addition (10 g N m^-2 yr^-1) on soil nematode community in a semi-arid grassland in Inner Mongolia of China. We found that the abundance and diversity of nematodes increased under the treatments with fewer but stronger precipitation events (the largest abundance of total nematodes was 1458.37 individuals/100 g dry soil occurred under 40 mm intensity treatment). However, N addition reduced nematode diversity under these treatments, which largely offset the positive effects of increased rainfall intensity alone. Soil pH and plant belowground biomass were the main factors affecting nematode diversity. Our results imply that, as a consequence of global climate change, an increase in the intensity of rainfall events in the coming decades may favor the nematode communities within arid and semi-arid ecosystems. However, this positive effect may be largely offset by soil acidification in the regions experiencing heavy N deposition.

Pastures and Climate Extremes: Impacts of Cool Season Warming and Drought on the Productivity of Key Pasture Species in a Field Experiment

Shifts in the timing, intensity and/or frequency of climate extremes, such as severe drought and heatwaves, can generate sustained shifts in ecosystem function with important ecological and economic impacts for rangelands and managed pastures. The Pastures and Climate Extremes experiment (PACE) in Southeast Australia was designed to investigate the impacts of a severe winter/spring drought (60% rainfall reduction) and, for a subset of species, a factorial combination of drought and elevated temperature (ambient +3°C) on pasture productivity. The experiment included nine common pasture and Australian rangeland species from three plant functional groups (C3 grasses, C4 grasses and legumes) planted in monoculture. Winter/spring drought resulted in productivity declines of 45% on average and up to 74% for the most affected species (Digitaria eriantha) during the 6-month treatment period, with eight of the nine species exhibiting significant yield reductions. Despite considerable variation in species' sensitivity to drought, C4 grasses were more strongly affected by this treatment than C3 grasses or legumes. Warming also had negative effects on cool-season productivity, associated at least partially with exceedance of optimum growth temperatures in spring and indirect effects on soil water content. The combination of winter/spring drought and year-round warming resulted in the greatest yield reductions. We identified responses that were either additive (Festuca), or less-than-additive (Medicago), where warming reduced the magnitude of drought effects. Results from this study highlight the sensitivity of diverse pasture species to increases in winter and spring drought severity similar to those predicted for this region, and that anticipated benefits of cool-season warming are unlikely to be realized. Overall, the substantial negative impacts on productivity suggest that future, warmer, drier climates will result in shortfalls in cool-season forage availability, with profound implications for the livestock industry and natural grazer communities.

Drone-based physiological index reveals long-term acclimation and drought stress responses in trees

Monitoring early tree physiological responses to drought is key to understanding progressive impacts of drought on forests and identifying resilient species. We combined drone-based multispectral remote sensing with measurements of tree physiology and environmental parameters over two growing seasons in a 100-y-old Pinus sylvestris forest subject to 17-y of precipitation manipulation. Our goal was to determine if drone-based photochemical reflectance index (PRI) captures tree drought stress responses and whether responses are affected by long-term acclimation. PRI detects changes in xanthophyll cycle pigment dynamics, which reflect increases in photoprotective non-photochemical quenching activity resulting from drought-induced photosynthesis downregulation. Here, PRI of never-irrigated trees was up to 10 times lower (higher stress) than PRI of irrigated trees. Long-term acclimation to experimental treatment, however, influenced the seasonal relationship between PRI and soil water availability. PRI also captured diurnal decreases in photochemical efficiency, driven by vapour pressure deficit. Interestingly, 5 years after irrigation was stopped for a subset of the irrigated trees, a positive legacy effect persisted, with lower stress responses (higher PRI) compared with never-irrigated trees. This study demonstrates the ability of remotely sensed PRI to scale tree physiological responses to an entire forest and the importance of long-term acclimation in determining current drought stress responses.

Sensitivity and threshold dynamics of Pinus strobus and Quercus spp. in response to experimental and naturally occurring severe droughts

Increased drought frequency and severity are a pervasive global threat, yet the capacity of mesic temperate forests to maintain resilience in response to drought remains poorly understood. We deployed a throughfall removal experiment to simulate a once in a century drought in New Hampshire, USA, which coupled with the region-wide 2016 drought, intensified moisture stress beyond that experienced in the lifetimes of our study trees. To assess the sensitivity and threshold dynamics of two dominant northeastern tree genera (Quercus and Pinus), we monitored sap flux density (Js), leaf water potential and gas exchange, growth and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) for one pretreatment year (2015) and two treatment years (2016-17). Results showed that Js in pine (Pinus strobus L.) declined abruptly at a soil moisture threshold of 0.15 m3 m-3, whereas oak's (Quercus rubra L. and Quercus velutina Lam.) threshold was 0.11 m3 m-3-a finding consistent with pine's more isohydric strategy. Nevertheless, once oaks' moisture threshold was surpassed, Js declined abruptly, suggesting that while oaks are well adapted to moderate drought, they are highly susceptible to extreme drought. The radial growth reduction in response to the 2016 drought was more than twice as great for pine as for oaks (50 vs 18%, respectively). Despite relatively high precipitation in 2017, the oaks' growth continued to decline (low recovery), whereas pine showed neutral (treatment) or improved (control) growth. The iWUE increased in 2016 for both treatment and control pines, but only in treatment oaks. Notably, pines exhibited a significant linear relationship between iWUE and precipitation across years, whereas the oaks only showed a response during the driest conditions, further underscoring the different sensitivity thresholds for these species. Our results provide new insights into how interactions between temperate forest tree species' contrasting physiologies and soil moisture thresholds influence their responses and resilience to extreme drought.

Water availability modifies productivity response to biodiversity and nitrogen in long-term grassland experiments

Diversity and nitrogen addition have positive relationships with plant productivity, yet climate-induced changes in water availability threaten to upend these established relationships. Using long-term data from three experiments in a mesic grassland (ranging from 17 to 34 yr of data), we tested how the effects of species richness and nitrogen addition on community-level plant productivity changed as a function of annual fluctuations in water availability using growing season precipitation and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). While results varied across experiments, our findings demonstrate that water availability can magnify the positive effects of both biodiversity and nitrogen addition on productivity. These results suggest that productivity responses to anthropogenic species diversity loss and increasing nitrogen deposition could depend on precipitation regimes, highlighting the importance of testing interactions between multiple global change drivers.

Eco-evolutionary optimality as a means to improve vegetation and land-surface models

Global vegetation and land-surface models embody interdisciplinary scientific understanding of the behaviour of plants and ecosystems, and are indispensable to project the impacts of environmental change on vegetation and the interactions between vegetation and climate. However, systematic errors and persistently large differences among carbon and water cycle projections by different models highlight the limitations of current process formulations. In this review, focusing on core plant functions in the terrestrial carbon and water cycles, we show how unifying hypotheses derived from eco-evolutionary optimality (EEO) principles can provide novel, parameter-sparse representations of plant and vegetation processes. We present case studies that demonstrate how EEO generates parsimonious representations of core, leaf-level processes that are individually testable and supported by evidence. EEO approaches to photosynthesis and primary production, dark respiration and stomatal behaviour are ripe for implementation in global models. EEO approaches to other important traits, including the leaf economics spectrum and applications of EEO at the community level are active research areas. Independently tested modules emerging from EEO studies could profitably be integrated into modelling frameworks that account for the multiple time scales on which plants and plant communities adjust to environmental change.

Design of the tundra rainfall experiment (TRainEx) to simulate future summer precipitation scenarios

The majority of climate models predict severe increases in future temperature and precipitation in the Arctic. Increases in temperature and precipitation can lead to an intensification of the hydrologic cycle that strongly impacts Arctic environmental conditions. In order to investigate effects of future precipitation scenarios on ecosystems, precipitation manipulation experiments are being performed to simulate drought and extreme precipitation conditions. However, most of the existing research so far has been unevenly distributed, primarily focusing on temperate grasslands and woodlands. Despite large changes in the predicted precipitation and potentially high sensitivity of the Arctic tundra ecosystem to these changes, it is among the most understudied ecosystems for precipitation manipulation experiments.

Gherardi and Sala (2013) presented a design for precipitation manipulation experiments that, relative to other methods at the time, was cheap, simplistic, and easily reproducible. In this study, we:•

Present modifications to the original Gherardi and Sala (2013) design that are adapted to cold, harsh conditions, such as those present in the Siberian Arctic tundra.

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Provide a detailed documentation of the improved design.

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Validate our modified experimental design based on the first two years of our experiment.

Interannual variation in rainfall modulates temperature sensitivity of carbon allocation and flux in a tropical montane wet forest

Tropical forests exert a disproportionately large influence on terrestrial carbon (C) balance but projecting the effects of climate change on C cycling in tropical forests remains uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improved quantification of the independent and interactive effects of variable and changing temperature and precipitation regimes on C inputs to, cycling within and loss from tropical forests. Here, we quantified aboveground litterfall and soil-surface CO₂ efflux ("soil respiration"; F_S ) in nine plots organized across a highly constrained 5.2°C mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient in tropical montane wet forest. We used five consecutive years of these measurements, during which annual rainfall (AR) steadily increased, in order to: (a) estimate total belowground C flux (TBCF); (b) examine how interannual variation in AR alters the apparent temperature dependency (Q₁₀ ) of above- and belowground C fluxes; and (c) quantify stand-level C allocation responses to MAT and AR. Averaged across all years, F_S , litterfall, and TBCF increased positively and linearly with MAT, which accounted for 49, 47, and 46% of flux rate variation, respectively. Rising AR lowered TBCF and F_S , but increased litterfall, with patterns representing interacting responses to declining light. The Q₁₀ of F_S , litterfall, and TBCF all decreased with increasing AR, with peak sensitivity to MAT in the driest year and lowest sensitivity in the wettest. These findings support the conclusion that for this tropical montane wet forest, variations in light, water, and nutrient availability interact to strongly influence productivity (litterfall+TBCF), the sensitivity of above- and belowground C fluxes to rising MAT (Q₁₀ of F_S , litterfall, and TBCF), and C allocation patterns (TBCF:[litterfall+TBCF]).

Why Coordinated Distributed Experiments Should Go Global

The performance of coordinated distributed experiments designed to compare ecosystem sensitivity to global-change drivers depends on whether they cover a significant proportion of the global range of environmental variables. In the present article, we described the global distribution of climatic and soil variables and quantified main differences among continents. Then, as a test case, we assessed the representativeness of the International Drought Experiment (IDE) in parameter space. Considering the global environmental variability at this scale, the different continents harbor unique combinations of parameters. As such, coordinated experiments set up across a single continent may fail to capture the full extent of global variation in climate and soil parameter space. IDE with representation on all continents has the potential to address global scale hypotheses about ecosystem sensitivity to environmental change. Our results provide a unique vision of climate and soil variability at the global scale and highlight the need to design globally distributed networks.

Towards a mechanistic understanding of soil nitrogen availability responses to summer vs. winter drought in a semiarid grassland

More frequent and intense drought events resulting from climate change are anticipated to become important drivers of change for terrestrial ecosystem function by affecting water and nutrient cycles. In semiarid grasslands, the responses of soil nitrogen availability to severe drought and the underlying mechanisms are largely unknown. Moreover, the responses and mechanisms may vary between summer and winter drought. We examined soil nitrogen availability responses to extreme reductions in precipitation over summer and winter using a field experiment in a semiarid grassland located in northeast China, and we explored the mechanisms by examining associated changes in abiotic factors (soil property responses) and biotic factors (plant and soil microbial responses). The results demonstrated that both the summer and winter severe drought treatments significantly reduced plant and microbial biomass, whereas summer drought also changed soil microbial community structure. Summer drought, winter drought and combined summer and winter drought decreased the resistance of soil nitrogen availability by 38.7 ± 11.1%, 43.3 ± 11.4% and 43.8 ± 6.0%, respectively. While both changes in abiotic factors (reduced soil water content and total nitrogen content) and biotic factors (reduced plant and microbial biomass) explained the resistance of soil nitrogen availability to drought over summer, only changes in biotic factors (reduced plant and microbial biomass) explained the legacy effect of winter drought. Our results highlight that severe drought can have important consequences for nitrogen cycling in semiarid grasslands, and that both the effects of summer and winter drought must be accounted for in predicting these responses.

Research challenges and opportunities for using big data in global change biology

Global change biology has been entering a big data era due to the vast increase in availability of both environmental and biological data. Big data refers to large data volume, complex data sets, and multiple data sources. The recent use of such big data is improving our understanding of interactions between biological systems and global environmental changes. In this review, we first explore how big data has been analyzed to identify the general patterns of biological responses to global changes at scales from gene to ecosystem. After that, we investigate how observational networks and space-based big data have facilitated the discovery of emergent mechanisms and phenomena on the regional and global scales. Then, we evaluate the predictions of terrestrial biosphere under global changes by big modeling data. Finally, we introduce some methods to extract knowledge from big data, such as meta-analysis, machine learning, traceability analysis, and data assimilation. The big data has opened new research opportunities, especially for developing new data-driven theories for improving biological predictions in Earth system models, tracing global change impacts across different organismic levels, and constructing cyberinfrastructure tools to accelerate the pace of model-data integrations. These efforts will uncork the bottleneck of using big data to understand biological responses and adaptations to future global changes.

Frameworks on Patterns of Grasslands’ Sensitivity to Forecast Extreme Drought

Climate models have predicted the future occurrence of extreme drought (ED). The management, conservation, or restoration of grasslands following ED requires a robust prior knowledge of the patterns and mechanisms of sensitivity—declining rate of ecosystem functions due to ED. Yet, the global-scale pattern of grasslands’ sensitivity to any ED event remains unresolved. Here, frameworks were built to predict the sensitivity patterns of above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) spanning the global precipitation gradient under ED. The frameworks particularly present three sensitivity patterns that could manipulate (weaken, strengthen, or erode) the orthodox positive precipitation–productivity relationship which exists under non-drought (ambient) condition. First, the slope of the relationship could become steeper via higher sensitivity at xeric sites than mesic and hydric ones. Second, if the sensitivity emerges highest in hydric, followed by mesic, then xeric, a weakened slope, flat line, or negative slope would emerge. Lastly, if the sensitivity emerges unexpectedly similar across the precipitation gradient, the slope of the relationship would remain similar to that of the ambient condition. Overall, the frameworks provide background knowledge on possible differences or similarities in responses of grasslands to forecast ED, and could stimulate increase in conduct of experiments to unravel the impacts of ED on grasslands. More importantly, the frameworks indicate the need for reconciliation of conflicting hypotheses of grasslands’ sensitivity to ED through global-scale experiments.

Extreme rainfall events alter the trophic structure in bromeliad tanks across the Neotropics

Changes in global and regional precipitation regimes are among the most pervasive components of climate change. Intensification of rainfall cycles, ranging from frequent downpours to severe droughts, could cause widespread, but largely unknown, alterations to trophic structure and ecosystem function. We conducted multi-site coordinated experiments to show how variation in the quantity and evenness of rainfall modulates trophic structure in 210 natural freshwater microcosms (tank bromeliads) across Central and South America (18°N to 29°S). The biomass of smaller organisms (detritivores) was higher under more stable hydrological conditions. Conversely, the biomass of predators was highest when rainfall was uneven, resulting in top-heavy biomass pyramids. These results illustrate how extremes of precipitation, resulting in localized droughts or flooding, can erode the base of freshwater food webs, with negative implications for the stability of trophic dynamics.

The amount and frequency of rainfall structures aquatic food webs. Here the authors show that in tropical tank bromeliads, lower trophic levels are more abundant in stable rainfall conditions, while biomass pyramids are inverted in conditions with periodic droughts.

Plant responses to rising vapor pressure deficit

Recent decades have been characterized by increasing temperatures worldwide, resulting in an exponential climb in vapor pressure deficit (VPD). VPD has been identified as an increasingly important driver of plant functioning in terrestrial biomes and has been established as a major contributor in recent drought-induced plant mortality independent of other drivers associated with climate change. Despite this, few studies have isolated the physiological response of plant functioning to high VPD, thus limiting our understanding and ability to predict future impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. An abundance of evidence suggests that stomatal conductance declines under high VPD and transpiration increases in most species up until a given VPD threshold, leading to a cascade of subsequent impacts including reduced photosynthesis and growth, and higher risks of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Incorporation of photosynthetic and hydraulic traits in 'next-generation' land-surface models has the greatest potential for improved prediction of VPD responses at the plant- and global-scale, and will yield more mechanistic simulations of plant responses to a changing climate. By providing a fully integrated framework and evaluation of the impacts of high VPD on plant function, improvements in forecasting and long-term projections of climate impacts can be made.

The role of replication studies in ecology

Recent large-scale projects in other disciplines have shown that results often fail to replicate when studies are repeated. The conditions contributing to this problem are also present in ecology, but there have not been any equivalent replication projects. Here, we survey ecologists' understanding of and opinions about replication studies. The majority of ecologists in our sample considered replication studies to be important (97%), not prevalent enough (91%), worth funding even given limited resources (61%), and suitable for publication in all journals (62%). However, there is a disconnect between this enthusiasm and the prevalence of direct replication studies in the literature which is much lower (0.023%: Kelly 2019) than our participants' median estimate of 10%. This may be explained by the obstacles our participants identified including the difficulty of conducting replication studies and of funding and publishing them. We conclude by offering suggestions for how replications could be better integrated into ecological research.

Extreme drought affects the productivity, but not the composition, of a desert plant community in Central Asia differentially across microtopographies

Extreme climatic conditions are major drivers of ecosystem function and dynamics and their frequency is increasing under climate change. Climatic conditions interact with local microtopography, which might either buffer or exacerbate the degree of climatic stress. Here we sought to understand how extremely dry growing seasons affected the composition and productivity of desert ephemeral communities growing in sand dunes from the Gurbantunggut desert in Central Asia, and to which extent did microtopography modulate the response. We set up a rainfall manipulation study on four sand dune microtopographies and, during two consecutive years, we measured soil moisture, nutrients and texture, ephemeral layer composition, plant phenology, biomass accumulation and biomass allocation patterns for the dominant species. We observed significant biomass reductions during the extreme drought but plant community richness and composition were not affected, indicating that the composition of the ephemeral layer in this desert ecosystem may resist under extreme conditions. Additionally, extreme drought increased biomass allocation to reproductive organs of the dominant species. There were also significant microtopographic effects as the sensitivity of biomass to drought in western aspects was larger than in eastern aspects. Our results indicate that previously overlooked microtopographical differences may mediate the impact of climate change on plant communities.

Invasive species interact with climatic variability to reduce success of natives

Plants have evolved resource-conservative and resource-acquisitive strategies to deal with variability in rainfall, but interactions with dominant invasive species may undermine these adaptations. To investigate the relative effect of invaders on species with these two strategies, we manipulated rainfall and invasive grass presence and measured demographic rates in three resource-acquisitive and three resource-conservative native annual forbs. We found that invasive grasses were harmful to all of the target species, but especially the resource-acquisitive ones, and that these effects were stronger under experimental drought. Invasive grass presence under drought lowered per capita population growth rates of acquisitive natives through increased mortality and decreased seed set. While invasive grasses also decreased per capita growth rates of resource-conservative natives, they did so by increasing mortality under experimental watering and by limiting the production of seed under experimental drought. Invasive species can thus interact with climatic fluctuations to make bad years worse for resource-acquisitive natives and good years less good for resource-conservative natives, and they may generally tend to undermine the acquisitive strategy more than the conservative one.

Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

Ecologists have long studied patterns, directions and tempos of change, but there is a pressing need to extend current understanding to empirical observations of abrupt changes as climate warming accelerates. Abrupt changes in ecological systems (ACES)-changes that are fast in time or fast relative to their drivers-are ubiquitous and increasing in frequency. Powerful theoretical frameworks exist, yet applications in real-world landscapes to detect, explain and anticipate ACES have lagged. We highlight five insights emerging from empirical studies of ACES across diverse ecosystems: (i) ecological systems show ACES in some dimensions but not others; (ii) climate extremes may be more important than mean climate in generating ACES; (iii) interactions among multiple drivers often produce ACES; (iv) contingencies, such as ecological memory, frequency and sequence of disturbances, and spatial context are important; and (v) tipping points are often (but not always) associated with ACES. We suggest research priorities to advance understanding of ACES in the face of climate change. Progress in understanding ACES requires strong integration of scientific approaches (theory, observations, experiments and process-based models) and high-quality empirical data drawn from a diverse array of ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Ecological response to altered rainfall differs across the Neotropics

There is growing recognition that ecosystems may be more impacted by infrequent extreme climatic events than by changes in mean climatic conditions. This has led to calls for experiments that explore the sensitivity of ecosystems over broad ranges of climatic parameter space. However, because such response surface experiments have so far been limited in geographic and biological scope, it is not clear if differences between studies reflect geographic location or the ecosystem component considered. In this study, we manipulated rainfall entering tank bromeliads in seven sites across the Neotropics, and characterized the response of the aquatic ecosystem in terms of invertebrate functional composition, biological stocks (total invertebrate biomass, bacterial density) and ecosystem fluxes (decomposition, carbon, nitrogen). Of these response types, invertebrate functional composition was the most sensitive, even though, in some sites, the species pool had a high proportion of drought-tolerant families. Total invertebrate biomass was universally insensitive to rainfall change because of statistical averaging of divergent responses between functional groups. The response of invertebrate functional composition to rain differed between geographical locations because (1) the effect of rainfall on bromeliad hydrology differed between sites, and invertebrates directly experience hydrology not rainfall and (2) the taxonomic composition of some functional groups differed between sites, and families differed in their response to bromeliad hydrology. These findings suggest that it will be difficult to establish thresholds of "safe ecosystem functioning" when ecosystem components differ in their sensitivity to climatic variables, and such thresholds may not be broadly applicable over geographic space. In particular, ecological forecast horizons for climate change may be spatially restricted in systems where habitat properties mediate climatic impacts, and those, like the tropics, with high spatial turnover in species composition.

Effects of precipitation changes on soil bacterial community composition and diversity in the Junggar desert of Xinjiang, China

Variation in precipitation can markedly affect the structure and function of soil microbial communities, especially in arid areas which are limited by water resources. Therefore, it is critical to understand how soil bacterial community composition and diversity will respond to variation in precipitation. In this study, we examined the soil bacterial community structure and diversity between five precipitation treatments (60% decrease, 30% decrease, control, 30% increase and 60% increase in precipitation) in the same arid site, in the Junggar desert of Xinjiang, northern China. The dominant bacterial phyla, present at similar frequencies in plots with different precipitation levels, were Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Acidobacteria and Chloroflexi. The Shannon-Wiener and Chao1 indices of soil bacterial α-diversity were both positively correlated with plant diversity. Our results indicated that (1) extreme drought significantly decreased bacterial abundance and diversity compared with increased precipitation; (2) variation in precipitation did not change the dominant components of the bacterial communities; and (3) soil pH and total nitrogen concentration were the key factors affecting soil bacterial composition in the Junggar desert.

Global change biology: A primer

Because of human action, the Earth has entered an era where profound changes in the global environment are creating novel conditions that will be discernable far into the future. One consequence may be a large reduction of the Earth's biodiversity, potentially representing a sixth mass extinction. With effective stewardship, the global change drivers that threaten the Earth's biota could be alleviated, but this requires clear understanding of the drivers, their interactions, and how they impact ecological communities. This review identifies 10 anthropogenic global change drivers and discusses how six of the drivers (atmospheric CO₂ enrichment, climate change, land transformation, species exploitation, exotic species invasions, eutrophication) impact Earth's biodiversity. Driver impacts on a particular species could be positive or negative. In either case, they initiate secondary responses that cascade along ecological lines of connection and in doing so magnify the initial impact. The unique nature of the threat to the Earth's biodiversity is not simply due to the magnitude of each driver, but due to the speed of change, the novelty of the drivers, and their interactions. Emphasizing one driver, notably climate change, is problematic because the other global change drivers also degrade biodiversity and together threaten the stability of the biosphere. As the main academic journal addressing global change effects on living systems, GCB is well positioned to provide leadership in solving the global change challenge. If humanity cannot meet the challenge, then GCB is positioned to serve as a leading chronicle of the sixth mass extinction to occur on planet Earth.

How ecologists define drought, and why we should do better

Drought, widely studied as an important driver of ecosystem dynamics, is predicted to increase in frequency and severity globally. To study drought, ecologists must define or at least operationalize what constitutes a drought. How this is accomplished in practice is unclear, particularly given that climatologists have long struggled to agree on definitions of drought, beyond general variants of "an abnormal deficiency of water." We conducted a literature review of ecological drought studies (564 papers) to assess how ecologists describe and study drought. We found that ecologists characterize drought in a wide variety of ways (reduced precipitation, low soil moisture, reduced streamflow, etc.), but relatively few publications (~32%) explicitly define what are, and are not, drought conditions. More troubling, a surprising number of papers (~30%) simply equated "dry conditions" with "drought" and provided little characterization of the drought conditions studied. For a subset of these, we calculated Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values for the reported drought periods. We found that while almost 90% of the studies were conducted under conditions quantifiable as slightly to extremely drier than average, ~50% were within the range of normal climatic variability. We conclude that the current state of the ecological drought literature hinders synthesis and our ability to draw broad ecological inferences because drought is often declared but is not explicitly defined or well characterized. We suggest that future drought publications provide at least one of the following: (a) the climatic context of the drought period based on long-term records; (b) standardized climatic index values; (c) published metrics from drought-monitoring organizations; (d) a quantitative definition of what the authors consider to be drought conditions for their system. With more detailed and consistent quantification of drought conditions, comparisons among studies can be more rigorous, increasing our understanding of the ecological effects of drought.

Nitrogen Loading Enhances Stress Impact of Drought on a Semi-natural Temperate Grassland

Two important threats to the sustainable functioning of seminatural grasslands in temperate zones are (1) nutrient loading due to agricultural fertilization and pollution, and (2) the increase of extreme drought events due to climate change. These threats may cause substantial shifts in species diversity and abundance and considerably affect the carbon and water balance of ecosystems. The synergistic effects between those two threats, however, can be complex and are poorly understood. Here, we experimentally investigated the effects of nitrogen addition and extreme drought (separately and in combination) on a seminatural temperate grassland, located in Freiburg (South Germany). To study the grassland response, we combined eddy-covariance techniques with open gas exchange systems. Open gas exchange chambers were connected to an infrared gas analyzer and water isotope spectrometer, which allowed the partitioning of net ecosystem exchange and evapotranspiration. Vegetation parameters were described by species richness, species abundance, and leaf area index. Our results suggest that grassland communities, strongly weakened in their stress response by nitrogen loading, can substantially lose their carbon sink function during drought. While nitrogen addition caused a significant loss in forb species (-25%), precipitation reduction promoted a strong dominance of grass species at season start. Consequently, the grass-dominated and species-poor community suffered from a strong above-ground dieback during the dry summer months, likely caused by lower water use efficiency and weaker drought adaptations of the species community. Over the growing season (April-September), the carbon sequestration of the studied grassland was reduced by more than 60% as a consequence of nitrogen addition. Nitrogen addition in combination with precipitation reduction decreased carbon sequestration by 73%. Eutrophication can severely threaten the resilient functioning of grasslands, in particular when drought periods will increase as predicted by future climate scenarios. Our findings emphasize the importance of preserving high diversity of grasslands to strengthen their resistance against extreme events such as droughts.

Drought suppresses soil predators and promotes root herbivores in mesic, but not in xeric grasslands

Precipitation changes among years and locations along gradients of mean annual precipitation (MAP). The way those changes interact and affect populations of soil organisms from arid to moist environments remains unknown. Temporal and spatial changes in precipitation could lead to shifts in functional composition of soil communities that are involved in key aspects of ecosystem functioning such as ecosystem primary production and carbon cycling. We experimentally reduced and increased growing-season precipitation for 2 y in field plots at arid, semiarid, and mesic grasslands to investigate temporal and spatial precipitation controls on the abundance and community functional composition of soil nematodes, a hyper-abundant and functionally diverse metazoan in terrestrial ecosystems. We found that total nematode abundance decreased with greater growing-season precipitation following increases in the abundance of predaceous nematodes that consumed and limited the abundance of nematodes lower in the trophic structure, including root feeders. The magnitude of these nematode responses to temporal changes in precipitation increased along the spatial gradient of long-term MAP, and significant effects only occurred at the mesic site. Contrary to the temporal pattern, nematode abundance increased with greater long-term MAP along the spatial gradient from arid to mesic grasslands. The projected increase in the frequency of extreme dry years in mesic grasslands will therefore weaken predation pressure belowground and increase populations of root-feeding nematodes, potentially leading to higher levels of plant infestation and plant damage that would exacerbate the negative effect of drought on ecosystem primary production and C cycling.

Experimental drought reduces genetic diversity in the grassland foundation species Bouteloua eriopoda

Understanding the resistance and resilience of foundation plant species to climate change is a critical issue because the loss of these species would fundamentally reshape communities and ecosystem processes. High levels of population genetic diversity may buffer foundation species against climate disruptions, but the strong selective pressures associated with climatic shifts may also rapidly reduce such diversity. We characterized genetic diversity and its responsiveness to experimental drought in the foundation plant, black grama grass (Bouteloua eriopoda), which dominates many western North American grasslands and shrublands. Previous studies suggested that in arid ecosystems, black grama reproduces largely asexually via stolons, and thus is likely to have low genetic variability, which might limit its potential to respond to climate disruptions. Using genotyping-by-sequencing, we demonstrated unexpectedly high genetic variability among black grama plants in a 1 ha site within the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge in central New Mexico, suggesting some level of sexual reproduction. Three years of experimental, growing season drought reduced black grama survival and biomass (the latter by 96%), with clear genetic differentiation (higher F_ST) between plants succumbing to drought and those remaining alive. Reduced genetic variability in the surviving plants in drought plots indicated that the experimental drought had forced black grama populations through selection bottlenecks. These results suggest that foundation grass species, such as black grama, may experience rapid evolutionary change if future climates include more severe droughts.

Enhancement of Ecological Field Experimental Research by Means of UAV Multispectral Sensing

Although many climate research experiments are providing valuable data, long-term measurements are not always affordable. In the last decades, several facilities have secured long-term experiments, but few studies have incorporated spatial and scale effects. Most of them have been implemented in experimental agricultural fields but none for ecological studies. Scale effects can be assessed using remote sensing images from space or airborne platforms. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are contributing to an increased spatial resolution, as well as becoming the intermediate scale between ground measurements and satellite/airborne image data. In this paper we assess the applicability of UAV-borne multispectral images to provide complementary experimental data collected at point scale (field sampling) in a long-term rain manipulation experiment located at the Kiskun Long-Term Socio-Ecological Research (LTSER) site named ExDRain to assess the effects on grassland vegetation. Two multispectral sensors were compared at different scales, the Parrot Sequoia camera on board a UAV and the portable Cropscan spectroradiometer. The NDVI values were used to assess the effect of plastic roofs and a proportional reduction effect was found for Sequoia-derived NDVI values. Acceptable and significant positive relationships were found between both sensors at different scales, being stronger at Cropscan measurement scale. Differences found at plot scale might be due to heterogeneous responses to treatments. Spatial variability analysis pointed out a more homogeneous response for plots submitted to severe and moderate drought. More investigation is needed to address the possible effect of species abundance on NDVI at plot scale contributing to a more consistent representation of ground measurements. The feasibility of carrying out systematic UAV flights coincident or close to ground campaigns will certainly reveal the consistency of the observed spatial patterns in the long run.

Extreme drought pushes stream invertebrate communities over functional thresholds

Functional traits are increasingly being used to predict extinction risks and range shifts under long-term climate change scenarios, but have rarely been used to study vulnerability to extreme climatic events, such as supraseasonal droughts. In streams, drought intensification can cross thresholds of habitat loss, where marginal changes in environmental conditions trigger disproportionate biotic responses. However, these thresholds have been studied only from a structural perspective, and the existence of functional nonlinearity remains unknown. We explored trends in invertebrate community functional traits along a gradient of drought intensity, simulated over 18 months, using mesocosms analogous to lowland headwater streams. We modelled the responses of 16 traits based on a priori predictions of trait filtering by drought, and also examined the responses of trait profile groups (TPGs) identified via hierarchical cluster analysis. As responses to drought intensification were both linear and nonlinear, generalized additive models (GAMs) were chosen to model response curves, with the slopes of fitted splines used to detect functional thresholds during drought. Drought triggered significant responses in 12 (75%) of the a priori-selected traits. Behavioural traits describing movement (dispersal, locomotion) and diet were sensitive to moderate-intensity drought, as channels fragmented into isolated pools. By comparison, morphological and physiological traits showed little response until surface water was lost, at which point we observed sudden shifts in body size, respiration mode and thermal tolerance. Responses varied widely among TPGs, ranging from population collapses of non-aerial dispersers as channels fragmented to irruptions of small, eurythermic dietary generalists upon extreme dewatering. Our study demonstrates for the first time that relatively small changes in drought intensity can trigger disproportionately large functional shifts in stream communities, suggesting that traits-based approaches could be particularly useful for diagnosing catastrophic ecological responses to global change.