Climate- and successional-related changes in functional composition of European forests are strongly driven by tree mortality

Mapping multi-dimensional variability in water stress strategies across temperate forests

Increasing water stress is emerging as a global phenomenon, and is anticipated to have a marked impact on forest function. The role of tree functional strategies is pivotal in regulating forest fitness and their ability to cope with water stress. However, how the functional strategies found at the tree or species level scale up to characterise forest communities and their variation across regions is not yet well-established. By combining eight water-stress-related functional traits with forest inventory data from the USA and Europe, we investigated the community-level trait coordination and the biogeographic patterns of trait associations for woody plants, and analysed the relationships between the trait associations and climate factors. We find that the trait associations at the community level are consistent with those found at the species level. Traits associated with acquisitive-conservative strategies forms one dimension of variation, while leaf turgor loss point, associated with stomatal water regulation strategy, loads along a second dimension. Surprisingly, spatial patterns of community-level trait association are better explained by temperature than by aridity, suggesting a temperature-driven adaptation. These findings provide a basis to build predictions of forest response under water stress, with particular potential to improve simulations of tree mortality and forest biomass accumulation in a changing climate.

Resource availability enhances positive tree functional diversity effects on carbon and nitrogen accrual in natural forests

Forests harbor extensive biodiversity and act as a strong global carbon and nitrogen sink. Although enhancing tree diversity has been shown to mitigate climate change by sequestering more carbon and nitrogen in biomass and soils in manipulative experiments, it is still unknown how varying environmental gradients, such as gradients in resource availability, mediate the effects of tree diversity on carbon and nitrogen accrual in natural forests. Here, we use Canada's National Forest Inventory data to explore how the relationships between tree diversity and the accumulation of carbon and nitrogen in tree biomass and soils vary with resource availability and environmental stressors in natural forests. We find that the positive relationship between tree functional diversity (rather than species richness) and the accumulation of carbon in tree biomass strengthens with increasing light and soil nutrient availability. Moreover, the positive relationship between tree functional diversity and the accumulation of carbon and nitrogen in both organic and mineral soil horizons is more pronounced at sites with greater water and nutrient availabilities. Our results highlight that conserving and promoting functionally diverse forests in resource-rich environments could play a greater role than in resource-poor environments in enhancing carbon and nitrogen sequestration in Canada's forests.

Linkages between stem vulnerability curves and tree demography and their implications for plant physiological modeling

Vulnerability curves (VCs) have been measured extensively to describe the differences in plant vulnerability to cavitation. Although the roles of hydraulic conductivity (Ks,max) and hydraulic safety (P50, embolism resistance), both of which are parameters of VCs ('sigmoidal' type), in tree demography have been evaluated across different forests, the direct linkages between VCs and tree demography are rarely explored. In this study, we combined measured VCs and plot data of 16 tree species in Panamanian seasonal tropical forests to investigate the connections between VCs and tree mortality, recruitment and growth. We found that the mortality and recruitment rates of evergreen species were most significantly positively correlated with P50. However, the mortality and recruitment rates of deciduous species only exhibited significant positive correlations with parameter a, which describes the steepness of VCs and indicates the sensitivity of conductivity loss with water potential decline, but is often neglected. These differences among evergreen and deciduous species may contribute to the poor performance of existing quantitative relationships (such as the fitting relationships for all 16 species) in capturing tree mortality and recruitment dynamics. Additionally, evergreen species presented a significant positive relationship between relative growth rate (RGR) and Ks,max, while deciduous species did not display such relationship. The RGR of both evergreen and deciduous species also displayed no significant correlations with P50 and a. Further analysis demonstrated that species with steeper VCs tended to have high mortality and recruitment rates, while species with flatter VCs were usually those with low mortality and recruitment rates. Our results highlight the important role of parameter a in tree demography, especially for deciduous species. Given that VC is a key component of plant hydraulic models, integrating measured VC rather than optimizing its parameters will help improve the ability to simulate and predict forest response to water availability.

Functional diversity enhances dryland forest productivity under long-term climate change

Short-term experimental studies provided evidence that plant diversity increases ecosystem resilience and resistance to drought events, suggesting diversity to serve as a nature-based solution to address climate change. However, it remains unclear whether the effects of diversity are momentary or still hold over the long term in natural forests to ensure that the sustainability of carbon sinks. By analyzing 57 years of inventory data from dryland forests in Canada, we show that productivity of dryland forests decreased at an average rate of 1.3% per decade, in concert with the temporally increasing temperature and decreasing water availability. Increasing functional trait diversity from its minimum (monocultures) to maximum value increased productivity by 13%. Our results demonstrate the potential role of tree functional trait diversity in alleviating climate change impacts on dryland forests. While recognizing that nature-based climate mitigation (e.g., planting trees) can only be partial solutions, their long-term (decadal) efficacy can be improved by enhancing functional trait diversity across the forest community.

Enhanced growth resistance but no decline in growth resilience under long-term extreme droughts

The frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme droughts, with devastating impacts on tree growth and survival, have increased with climate change over the past decades. Assessing growth resistance and resilience to drought is a crucial prerequisite for understanding the responses of forest functioning to drought events. However, the responses of growth resistance and resilience to extreme droughts with different durations across different climatic zones remain unclear. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal patterns in growth resistance and resilience in response to extreme droughts with different durations during 1901-2015, relying on tree-ring chronologies from 2389 forest stands over the mid- and high-latitudinal Northern Hemisphere, species-specific plant functional traits, and diverse climatic factors. The findings revealed that growth resistance and resilience under 1-year droughts were higher in humid regions than in arid regions. Significant higher growth resistance was observed under 2-year droughts than under 1-year droughts in both arid and humid regions, while growth resilience did not show a significant difference. Temporally, tree growth became less resistant and resilient to 1-year droughts in 1980-2015 than in 1901-1979 in both arid and humid regions. As drought duration lengthened, the predominant impacts of climatic factors on growth resistance and resilience weakened and instead foliar economic traits, plant hydraulic traits, and soil properties became much more important in both climatic regions; in addition, such trends were also observed temporally. Finally, we found that most of the Earth system models (ESMs) used in this study overestimated growth resistance and underestimated growth resilience under both 1-year and 2-year droughts. A comprehensive ecophysiological understanding of tree growth responses to longer and intensified drought events is urgently needed, and a specific emphasis should be placed on improving the performance of ESMs.

Different hydraulic and photosynthetic responses to summer drought between newly sprouted and established Moso bamboo culms

The subtropical regions in China are prone to recurrent summer droughts induced by the Western Pacific Subtropical High-Pressure, which has induced the death of tens of millions of culms of Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys edulis (Carriere) J. Houzeau), a widely distributed giant bamboo with high economic and ecological values. In the future, the intensity and frequency of the summer drought are projected to increase in these areas due to global climate change, which may lead to significant age-specific mortality of Moso bamboo. So far, it is still unclear about the age-specific response mechanisms of hydraulic traits and carbon balance of Moso bamboo when it is suffering to an ongoing summer drought. This study aimed to investigate the hydraulic and photosynthetic responses of newly sprouted (1 year old) and established (2-5 years old) culms of Moso bamboo to summer drought, which was manipulated by throughfall reduction in Lin'an of Zhejiang. The results showed that both newly sprouted and established culms had a gradually weakening hydraulic conductivity and photosynthesis during the whole drought process. In the early stage of the manipulated drought, the established culms had more loss of hydraulic conductivity than the newly sprouted culms. However, the newly sprouted culms had significant more loss of hydraulic conductivity and lower photosynthetic rates and stomatal conductance in the middle and late stages of the manipulated drought. The results suggest that the newly sprouted culms were more susceptible to summer drought than established culms due to the combined effects of hydraulic damage and photosynthetic restriction, explaining why the newly sprouted culms have higher mortality than elder culms when subjected to extreme drought. These findings provided insights into the mechanisms of Moso bamboo's age-specific drought-induced mortality, which will help for the anti-drought management of bamboo.

Tree diversity increases decadal forest soil carbon and nitrogen accrual

Increasing soil carbon and nitrogen storage can help mitigate climate change and sustain soil fertility^1,2. A large number of biodiversity-manipulation experiments collectively suggest that high plant diversity increases soil carbon and nitrogen stocks^3,4. It remains debated, however, whether such conclusions hold in natural ecosystems^5-12. Here we analyse Canada's National Forest Inventory (NFI) database with the help of structural equation modelling (SEM) to explore the relationship between tree diversity and soil carbon and nitrogen accumulation in natural forests. We find that greater tree diversity is associated with higher soil carbon and nitrogen accumulation, validating inferences from biodiversity-manipulation experiments. Specifically, on a decadal scale, increasing species evenness from its minimum to maximum value increases soil carbon and nitrogen in the organic horizon by 30% and 42%, whereas increasing functional diversity enhances soil carbon and nitrogen in the mineral horizon by 32% and 50%, respectively. Our results highlight that conserving and promoting functionally diverse forests could promote soil carbon and nitrogen storage, enhancing both carbon sink capacity and soil nitrogen fertility.

Tree functional composition, functional diversity, and aboveground biomass show dissimilar trajectories in a tropical secondary forest restored through assisted natural regeneration

The growing trend of agricultural abandonment requires an understanding of the development of secondary forests on old fields in the context of restoration. However, few studies examine the regeneration trajectories of functional composition and functional diversity in afrotropical secondary forests. We tested how functional composition, diversity, and aboveground biomass (AGB) change with age and determined restoration success for a secondary forest restored through assisted natural regeneration in Uganda. We assessed the influence of distance to forests on regeneration. We sampled trees in 63 plots (2000 m2 each) in the secondary forest (16-22-year old) and five plots in an old-growth forest in 2011, 2014 and 2017. We computed functional composition (community-weighted means-CWM) and diversity using categorical (habitat type, dispersal mode, fruit size, and successional group) and continuous traits (wood density and maximum height) of the species and calculated AGB. The secondary forest showed dissimilar trajectories of functional composition, diversity, and AGB. After 16-22 years, the secondary forest had not yet reached equivalent values of most attributes of functional composition, diversity and AGB in the old-growth forest. The distance to forests had a negative effect on CWM of forest-dependent species, nonpioneer light demanders, and functional divergence and a positive effect on CWM of pioneer species. We show that assisted natural regeneration can enhance the functional composition, functional diversity, and AGB of degraded forests and that continued monitoring is needed to attain full recovery. In planning passive restoration, sites closer to existing forests should be prioritized in order to achieve faster recovery.

Management alters drought-induced mortality patterns in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests

The high tree mortality during the dry and hot years of 2018-2019 in Europe has triggered concerns on the future of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests under climate change and raised questions as to whether forest management may increase tree mortality. We compared long-term mortality rates of beech between managed and unmanaged stands including the years 2018-2019 at 11 sites in Hesse, Germany. We hypothesized that mortality would increase with climate water deficits during the growing season, initial stand density, decreasing dominance of trees, and decreasing intensity of tree removals. Initial stand density, tree removals, the climate water balance and the competitive status of trees were used as predictor variables. Mean annual natural mortality rates ranged between 0.5% and 2.1%. Even in the drought years, we observed no signs of striking canopy disintegration. The significantly higher mortality (1.6-2.1%) in unmanaged stands during the drought years 2018 and 2019 was largely confined to suppressed trees. There was no significant increase of mortality in managed stands during the drought years, but a shift in mortality towards larger canopy trees. Our study did not confirm a general influence of management, in the form of tree removals, on mortality rates. Yet, we found that during drought years, management changed the distribution of mortality within the tree community. To analyse the effects of management on mortality rates more comprehensively, a wider gradient in site moisture conditions, including sites drier than in this study, and longer post-drought periods should be employed.

Thinning can increase shrub diversity and decrease herb diversity by regulating light and soil environments

Tree thinning affects the light environment, which in turn affects the growth and survival of understory vegetation, thus improving species diversity and nutrient cycling, as well as the ecological habitat factors. However, the response of understory vegetation to the thinning intensity and short-time effects in the temperate broadleaf-conifer mixed forest is not completely clear. In this study, four permanent plots with a total area of 4 hm² were established in a mixed broadleaf-conifer forest in northeast China, with thinning intensities of 20% (light thinning, LT), 35% (medium thinning, MT), 55% (heavy thinning, HT) and the unthinned plot (CK), respectively, in accordance with the basal area. The responses of species diversity to changes in understory vegetation were conducted by a structural equation model (SEM). The results showed that compared with CK, thinning significantly increased the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and the light quality (R/FR) (p < 0.05), while decreased the contents of soil total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorous (TP), organic matter (OM), nitrate nitrogen (NN), ammonia nitrogen (AN) and pH. The degree of fragmentation of light factors among the treatment plots gradually decreased as thinning intensity increased. Among all the thinning treatments, PAR and R/FR were found to be the optimal light condition when the forest thinning intensity was 55%. The light condition was found to have a significant negative correlation with soil TN, TP, OM, and AN. While the soil nutrients were positively correlated with herbaceous layer diversity but negatively correlated with shrub layer diversity. The soil nutrients were lost after thinning in a short time and herb diversity decreased, but shrub diversity increased significantly compared with unthinned plots. For the understory vegetation, the species diversity of shrub and herb layer were showed to be more sensitive to soil nutrients than light environment.

Tree characteristics and drought severity modulate the growth resilience of natural Mongolian pine to extreme drought episodes

Global climate change and the increase in the frequency and intensity of drought have led to widespread forest decline and tree mortality. Studying the resilience components of tree growth to drought, including resistance (R_t), recovery (R_c), and resilience (R_s) and the influencing factors, helps assess forests' production and ecological stability under a changing climate. This study analyzed the responses of three resilience components of natural Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) to drought events by examining individual-tree characteristics in two sites of Hulunbuir using the linear mixed effect model. The result showed that drought severity, diameter at breast height (dbh), pre-drought growth, and growth variability prior to drought had significant effects on the three resilience components of Mongolian pine growth. Specifically, as drought severity, dbh and growth variability increased, the R_t and R_s decreased, but R_c increased, showing a trade-off relationship with R_t. However, the R_t, R_c, and R_s decreased with pre-drought growth. Inter-tree competition and tree age also significantly impacted two resilience components. Besides, the interaction term between tree competition and tree age negatively affects R_t and R_s but positively affects R_c. Our findings highlight the influence of drought severity and individual-tree characteristics on drought resilience components, which can serve the adaptive management of natural Mongolian pine forests in the future.

Tree growth response to drought partially explains regional-scale growth and mortality patterns in Iberian forests

Tree-ring data has been widely used to inform about tree growth responses to drought at the individual scale, but less is known about how tree growth sensitivity to drought scales up driving changes in forest dynamics. Here, we related tree-ring growth chronologies and stand-level forest changes in basal area from two independent data sets to test if tree-ring responses to drought match stand forest dynamics (stand basal area growth, ingrowth, and mortality). We assessed if tree growth and changes in forest basal area covary as a function of spatial scale and tree taxa (gymnosperm or angiosperm). To this end, we compared a tree-ring network with stand data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory. We focused on the cumulative impact of drought on tree growth and demography in the period 1981-2005. Drought years were identified by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their impacts on tree growth by quantifying tree-ring width reductions. We hypothesized that forests with greater drought impacts on tree growth will also show reduced stand basal area growth and ingrowth and enhanced mortality. This is expected to occur in forests dominated by gymnosperms on drought-prone regions. Cumulative growth reductions during dry years were higher in forests dominated by gymnosperms and presented a greater magnitude and spatial autocorrelation than for angiosperms. Cumulative drought-induced tree growth reductions and changes in forest basal area were related, but initial stand density and basal area were the main factors driving changes in basal area. In drought-prone gymnosperm forests, we observed that sites with greater growth reductions had lower stand basal area growth and greater mortality. Consequently, stand basal area, forest growth, and ingrowth in regions with large drought impacts was significantly lower than in regions less impacted by drought. Tree growth sensitivity to drought can be used as a predictor of gymnosperm demographic rates in terms of stand basal area growth and ingrowth at regional scales, but further studies may try to disentangle how initial stand density modulates such relationships. Drought-induced growth reductions and their cumulative impacts have strong potential to be used as early-warning indicators of regional forest vulnerability.

Higher tree diversity is linked to higher tree mortality

Examining the relationship between tree diversity and ecosystem functioning has been a recent focus of forest ecology. Particular emphasis has been given to the impact of tree diversity on productivity and to its potential to mitigate negative global change effects; however, little attention has been paid to tree mortality. This is critical because both tree mortality and productivity underpin forest ecosystem dynamics and therefore forest carbon sequestration. Neglecting tree mortality leaves a large part of the picture undocumented. Here we show that increasingly diverse forest stands have increasingly high mortality probabilities. We found that the most species-rich stands in temperate biomes had mortality probabilities more than sevenfold higher than monospecific stands (∼0.6% year−1 in monospecific stands to 4.0% year−1 in the most species-rich stands) while in boreal stands increases were less pronounced but still significant (∼1.1% year−1 in monospecific stands to 1.8% year−1 in the most species-rich stands). Tree species richness was the third-most-important predictor of mortality in our models in temperate forests and the fifth-most-important predictor in boreal forests. Our results highlight that while the promotion of tree diversity undoubtedly has many positive effects on ecosystem functioning and the services that trees provide to humanity, it remains important to consider all aspects of forest dynamics in order to properly predict the implications of maintaining and promoting tree diversity.

MASTREE+: Time-series of plant reproductive effort from six continents

Significant gaps remain in understanding the response of plant reproduction to environmental change. This is partly because measuring reproduction in long-lived plants requires direct observation over many years and such datasets have rarely been made publicly available. Here we introduce MASTREE+, a data set that collates reproductive time-series data from across the globe and makes these data freely available to the community. MASTREE+ includes 73,828 georeferenced observations of annual reproduction (e.g. seed and fruit counts) in perennial plant populations worldwide. These observations consist of 5971 population-level time-series from 974 species in 66 countries. The mean and median time-series length is 12.4 and 10 years respectively, and the data set includes 1122 series that extend over at least two decades (≥20 years of observations). For a subset of well-studied species, MASTREE+ includes extensive replication of time-series across geographical and climatic gradients. Here we describe the open-access data set, available as a.csv file, and we introduce an associated web-based app for data exploration. MASTREE+ will provide the basis for improved understanding of the response of long-lived plant reproduction to environmental change. Additionally, MASTREE+ will enable investigation of the ecology and evolution of reproductive strategies in perennial plants, and the role of plant reproduction as a driver of ecosystem dynamics.

Variations in leaf water status and drought tolerance of dominant tree species growing in multi-aged tropical forests in Thailand

Large-scale abandoned agricultural areas in Southeast Asia resulted in patches of forests of multiple successions and characteristics, challenging the study of their responses to environmental changes, especially under climatic water stress. Here, we investigated seasonal variation in leaf water status and drought tolerance of dominant tree species in three multi-aged tropical forests, ranging from 5 to > 200 years old, with contrasting soil moisture in Thailand. Seasonal variation in leaf water status differed among the forests with trees in young and intermediate sites demonstrating larger differences between seasons than the old-growth forest. Although vulnerability to embolism curves revealed that trees in old-growth forest were potentially more sensitive to declining leaf water status than others, they were predicted to lose < 5% of their hydraulic capacity as opposed to 13% for the trees in the younger sites. Our results suggest that the responses to water stress of tree species in different forest ages greatly vary with a tendency of trees in younger sites to be more resilience than those in older sites. Such information would benefit the selection of tree species that could adapt well to specific environments, thus improving the strategies for managing forests of different ages under a warmer future.

Tapping into the physiological responses to mistletoe infection during heat and drought stress

Mistletoes are important co-contributors to tree mortality globally, particularly during droughts. In Australia, mistletoe distributions are expanding in temperate woodlands, while their hosts have experienced unprecedented heat and drought stress in recent years. We investigated whether the excessive water use of mistletoes increased the probability of xylem emboli in a mature woodland during the recent record drought that was compounded by multiple heatwaves. We continuously recorded transpiration ($T_{SLA}$) of infected and uninfected branches from two eucalypt species over two summers, monitored stem and leaf water potentials ($\Psi $) and used hydraulic vulnerability curves to estimate percent loss in conductivity (PLC) for each species. Variations in weather (vapor pressure deficit, photosynthetically active radiation, soil water content), host species and % mistletoe foliage explained 78% of hourly $T_{SLA}$. While mistletoe acted as an uncontrollable sink for water in the host even during typical summer days, daily $T_{SLA}$ increased up to 4-fold in infected branches on hot days, highlighting the previously overlooked importance of temperature stress in amplifying water loss in mistletoes. The increased water use of mistletoes resulted in significantly decreased host $\Psi _{\rm{leaf}}$ and $\Psi _{\rm{trunk}}$. It further translated to an estimated increase of up to 11% PLC for infected hosts, confirming greater hydraulic dysfunction of infected trees that place them at higher risk of hydraulic failure. However, uninfected branches of Eucalyptus fibrosa F.Muell. had much tighter controls on water loss than uninfected branches of Eucalyptus moluccana Roxb., which shifted the risk of hydraulic failure towards an increased risk of carbon starvation for E. fibrosa. The contrasting mechanistic responses to heat and drought stress between both co-occurring species demonstrates the complexity of host-parasite interactions and highlights the challenge in predicting species-specific responses to biotic agents in a warmer and drier climate.

Short-term forest resilience after drought-induced die-off in Southwestern European forests

Drought-induced die-off in forests is becoming a widespread phenomenon across biomes, but the factors determining potential shifts in taxonomic and structural characteristics following mortality are largely unknown. We report on short-term patterns of resilience after drought-induced episodes of tree mortality across 48 monospecific forests from Morocco to Slovenia. Field surveys recorded plants growing beneath a canopy of dead, defoliated and healthy trees. Site-level structural characteristics and management legacy were also recorded. Resilience was assessed with reference to forest composition (self-replacement), structure, and changes in the climatic suitability of the replacing community relative to the climatic suitability of the dominant pre-drought species. Species climatic suitability was estimated from species distribution models calculated for the baseline 1970-2000 period. Short-term resilience decreased under higher levels of drought-induced damage to the dominant species and with evidences of management legacy. Greater resilience of structural features (fewer gaps, greater canopy height) was observed overall in forests with a larger basal area. Less gaps were also associated with greater woody species richness after drought. Overall, Fagaceae-dominated forests exhibited greater structural resilience than conifer-dominated ones. On those sites that were more climatically suited to the dominant pre-drought species, replacing communities tended to exhibit lower climatic suitability than pre-drought dominant species. There was a greater loss of climatic suitability under a legacy of management and drought intensity, but less so in the replacing communities with higher woody species richness. Our study reveals that short-term forest resilience is determined by pre-drought stand characteristics, often reflecting previous management legacies, and by the impact of drought on both the dominant pre-drought species and post-drought replacing species in terms of their climatic suitability.

Rapid functional shifts across high latitude forests over the last 65 years

Global environmental changes have strongly affected forest demographic rates, particularly amplified tree mortality in high latitude forests (e.g., two to five times greater mortality probability over the half-century). Although forest functional composition is critical for multitrophic biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, it remains unclear how functional composition has changed over time across large high latitude regions, which have been warming twice the rate of the globe as a whole. Using extensive spatial and long-term forest inventory data (17,107 plots monitored 1951-2016) across Canada, we found that after accounting for stand age-dependent functional shifts, functional composition shifted toward fast-growing deciduous broadleaved trees and higher drought tolerance over time. The temporal shift toward deciduous broadleaved trees was consistent across the baseline climate. However, over the study period, drought tolerance increased (or shade tolerance decreased) by 300% in colder boreal regions, while drought tolerance did not shift significantly in warmer temperate climates. A further analysis accounting for temporal changes in atmospheric CO₂ , temperature, and water availability indicated that the functional composition of colder regions shifted toward drought tolerance more rapidly with rising CO₂ than warmer regions, suggesting the greater vulnerability of boreal forests than temperate forests under ongoing global environmental changes. Future ecosystem management practices should consider spatial differences in functional responses to global environmental change, focusing on high latitude forests experiencing higher rates of warming and compositional changes.

Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂ ]) is increasing, which increases leaf-scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water-use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO₂ ] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO₂ responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO₂ ]-driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. Here we synthesize theory and broad, multidisciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO₂ ] (iCO₂ ) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre-industrial times. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO₂ is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO₂ responses are high in comparison to experiments and predictions from theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO₂ responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO₂ , albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.

Legacies of past forest management determine current responses to severe drought events of conifer species in the Romanian Carpathians

Worldwide increases in droughts- and heat-waves-associated tree mortality events are destabilizing the future of many forests and the ecosystem services they provide. Along with climate, understanding the impact of the legacies of past forest management is key to better explain current responses of different tree species to climate change. We studied tree mortality events that peaked in 2012 affecting one native (silver fir; growing within its natural distribution range) and two introduced (black pine and Scots; growing outside their natural distribution range) conifer species from the Romanian Carpathians. The three conifers were compared in terms of mortality events, growth trends, growth resilience to severe drought events, climate-growth relationships, and regeneration patterns. The mortality rates of the three species were found to be associated with severe drought events. Nevertheless, the native silver fir seems to undergo a self-thinning process, while the future of the remaining living black pine and Scots pine trees is uncertain as they register significant negative growth trends. Overall, the native silver fir showed a higher resilience to severe drought events than the two introduced pine species. Furthermore, and unlike the native silver fir, black pine and Scots pine species do not successfully regenerate. A high diversity of native broadleaf species sprouts and develops instead under them suggesting that we might be witnessing a process of ecological succession, with broadleaves recovering their habitats. As native species seem to perform better in terms of resilience and regeneration than introduced species, the overall effect of the black pine and Scots pine mortality might be compensated. Legacies of past forest management should be taken into account in order to better understand current responses of different tree species to ongoing climate change.

Long-Term Responses of Mediterranean Mountain Forests to Climate Change, Fire and Human Activities in the Northern Apennines (Italy)

Fagus sylvatica (beech) dominates the montane forests of the Apennines and builds old-growth high-conservation value stands. However, recent severe drought-induced diebacks raise concern on the future persistence of these forests and of Southern European mesophilous woodlands overall, growing at their dry edge. To explore the history of Apennine beech-dominated forests, we draw on the multiproxy paleoecological record from Lago Verdarolo, which includes a robust vegetation-independent temperature reconstruction. Numerical techniques are used to investigate the drivers of long-term Mediterranean mountain forest dynamics. Specifically, we focus on disentangling the ecological factors that caused the shift from high-diversity mixed forests to beech-dominated stands and on assessing the occurrence of legacy effects on present-day forests. Abrupt climate change largely drove vegetation dynamics during the Late Glacial and Early Holocene. Species-rich mixed Abies alba (silver fir) forests dominated about 10,500—5500 years ago, under rather dry and warmer-than-today conditions (+ 1—2 °C) and limited fire occurrence. Cooler and moister summers and increasing fire activity caused declines in several fire-sensitive temperate deciduous trees (for example, Ulmus, Tilia, Fraxinus) and favored the establishment of fir-beech forests around 5500 years ago. Further enhancement of fire activity and farming around 2000 years ago led to local Abies alba extinction and forest impoverishment. We conclude that the currently widespread monospecific Apennine beech forests are the result of multi-millennial land-use intensification superimposed on Late Holocene cooling and moistening. Given their higher drought-tolerance compared to beech stands, reviving ancient species-rich mixed fir forests represents a feasible and ‘tested’ possibility to adapt forests to climate change.

Evidence of non-stationary relationships between climate and forest responses: Increased sensitivity to climate change in Iberian forests

Climate and forest structure are considered major drivers of forest demography and productivity. However, recent evidence suggests that the relationships between climate and tree growth are generally non-stationary (i.e. non-time stable), and it remains uncertain whether the relationships between climate, forest structure, demography and productivity are stationary or are being altered by recent climatic and structural changes. Here we analysed three surveys from the Spanish Forest Inventory covering c. 30 years of information and we applied mixed and structural equation models to assess temporal trends in forest structure (stand density, basal area, tree size and tree size inequality), forest demography (ingrowth, growth and mortality) and above-ground forest productivity. We also quantified whether the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography and above-ground forest productivity were stationary over two consecutive time periods. Since the 1980s, density, basal area and tree size increased in Iberian forests, and tree size inequality decreased. In addition, we observed reductions in ingrowth and growth, and increases in mortality. Initial forest structure and water availability mainly modulated the temporal trends in forest structure and demography. The magnitude and direction of the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography changed over the two time periods analysed indicating non-stationary relationships between climate, forest structure and demography. Above-ground forest productivity increased due to a positive balance between ingrowth, growth and mortality. Despite increasing productivity over time, we observed an aggravation of the negative effects of climate change and increased competition on forest demography, reducing ingrowth and growth, and increasing mortality. Interestingly, our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on forest demography could be ameliorated through forest management, which has profound implications for forest adaptation to climate change.

Regeneration in the Understory of Declining Overstory Trees Contributes to Soil Respiration Homeostasis along Succession in a Sub-Mediterranean Beech Forest

Research Highlights: Tree decline can alter soil carbon cycling, given the close relationship between primary production and the activity of roots and soil microbes. Background and Objectives: We studied how tree decline associated to old age and accelerated by land-use change and increased drought in the last decades, affects soil properties and soil respiration (Rs). Materials and Methods: We measured Rs over two years around centennial European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees representing a gradient of decline in a sub-Mediterranean forest stand, where the number of centennial beech trees has decreased by 54% in the last century. Four replicate plots were established around trees (i) with no apparent crown dieback, (ii) less than 40% crown dieback, (iii) more than 50% crown dieback, and (iv) dead. Results: Temporal variations in Rs were controlled by soil temperature (Ts) and soil water content (SWC). The increase in Rs with Ts depended on SWC. The temperature-normalized Rs exhibited a parabolic relationship with SWC, suggesting a reduced root and microbial respiration associated to drought and waterlogging. The response of Rs to SWC did not vary among tree-decline classes. However, the sensitivity of Rs to Ts was higher around vigorous trees than around those with early symptoms of decline. Spatial variations in Rs were governed by soil carbon to nitrogen ratio, which had a negative effect on Rs, and SWC during summer, when drier plots had lower Rs than wetter plots. These variations were independent of the tree vigor. The basal area of recruits, which was three times (although non-significantly) higher under declining and dead trees than under vigorous trees, had a positive effect on Rs. However, the mean Rs did not change among tree-decline classes. These results indicate that Rs and related soil physico-chemical variables are resilient to the decline and death of dominant centennial trees. Conclusions: The development of advanced regeneration as overstory beech trees decline and die contribute to the Rs homeostasis along forest succession.

Multiple abiotic and biotic pathways shape biomass demographic processes in temperate forests

Forests play a key role in regulating the global carbon cycle, and yet the abiotic and biotic conditions that drive the demographic processes that underpin forest carbon dynamics remain poorly understood in natural ecosystems. To address this knowledge gap, we used repeat forest inventory data from 92,285 trees across four large permanent plots (4–25 ha in size) in temperate mixed forests in northeast China to ask the following questions: (1) How do soil conditions and stand age drive biomass demographic processes? (2) How do vegetation quality (i.e., functional trait diversity and composition) and quantity (i.e., initial biomass stocks) influence biomass demographic processes independently from soil conditions and stand age? (3) What is the relative contribution of growth, recruitment, and mortality to net biomass change? Using structural equation modeling, we showed that all three demographic processes were jointly constrained by multiple abiotic and biotic factors and that mortality was the strongest determinant on net biomass change over time. Growth and mortality, as well as functional trait diversity and the community‐weighted mean of specific leaf area (CWM_SLA), declined with stand age. By contrast, high soil phosphorous concentrations were associated with greater functional diversity and faster dynamics (i.e., high growth and mortality rates), but associated with lower CWM_SLA and initial biomass stock. More functionally diverse communities also had higher recruitment rates, but did not exhibit faster growth and mortality. Instead, initial biomass stocks and CWM_SLA were stronger predictors of biomass growth and mortality, respectively. By integrating the full spectrum of abiotic and biotic drivers of forest biomass dynamics, our study provides critical system‐level insights needed to predict the possible consequences of regional changes in forest diversity, composition, structure and function in the context of global change.

A Multifactorial Approach to Value Supporting Ecosystem Services in Spanish Forests and Its Implications in a Warming World

Carbon storage and sequestration are key ecosystem services critical to human well-being and biodiversity conservation. In a warming context, the quantification and valuation of carbon storage and sequestration is important in ensuring that effective incentives are put in place to tackle climate change. The quantification and valuation of ES such as carbon storage and sequestration requires the calculus of actual values and prediction, however, it usually does not include key processes that can indirectly influence carbon dynamics (i.e., risk, conservation or management). Here, we define a multifactorial approach to value ecosystem services based on two stages: (1) a biophysical approximation that integrates yearly supporting ecosystem services (i.e., quantification of carbon storage and sequestration) and (2) a weighing approach including factors that indirectly influence carbon storage and sequestration or that deserve specific attention (i.e., risk, conservation or management factors). The quantification of carbon storage and sequestration indicated that Spanish forests store on average 43 Mg C ha−1 and sequestrate on average 1.02 Mg C ha−1 year−1. Forest structure was a strong determinant of carbon storage and sequestration in Iberian forests, hence there was a strong spatial variation in the carbon sink. We adapted the weighting values to a financial cap and the monetary value of carbon increased more than four times when the weighting factors were taken into account. Finally, we argue that a multifactorial approach to value supporting ecosystem services incorporating aspects related to conservation and risk prevention can facilitate ecosystem service valuation and assist policy makers and stakeholders to establish payment service policies.

Forest Adaptation to Climate Change along Steep Ecological Gradients: The Case of the Mediterranean-Temperate Transition in South-Western Europe

Impacts of climate change are likely to be marked in areas with steep climatic transitions. Species turnover, spread of invasive species, altered productivity, and modified processes such as fire regimes can all spread rapidly along ecotones, which challenge the current paradigms of ecosystem management. We conducted a literature review at a continental-wide scale of South-Western European forests, where the drier and warmer conditions of the Mediterranean have been widely used as examples of what is expected in more temperate areas. Results from the literature point to: (a) an expansion of slow-growing evergreen hardwood trees; (b) increased dieback and mortality episodes in forests (both natural and planted) mostly related to competition and droughts, and mainly affecting conifers; and (c) an increase in emergent diseases and pests of keystone-trees used in agroforestry zones. There is no consensus in the literature that fire regimes are directly increasing due to climate change, but available satellite data of fire intensity in the last 17 years has been lower in zones where agroforestry practices are dominant compared to unmanaged forests. In contrast, there is agreement in the literature that the current spread of fire events is probably related to land abandonment patterns. The practice of agroforestry, common in all Mediterranean countries, emerges as a frequent recommendation in the literature to cope with drought, reduce fire risk, and maintain biodiverse landscapes and rural jobs. However, it is unknown the extent to which the open vegetation resulting from agroforestry is of interest to forest managers in temperate areas used to exploiting closed forest vegetation. Hence, many transitional areas surrounding the Mediterranean Basin may be left unmanaged with potentially higher climate-change risks, which require active monitoring in order to understand and help ongoing natural adaptation processes.

Sustainability of Forest Cover under Climate Change on the Temperate-Continental Xeric Limits

Climate change particularly threatens the xeric limits of temperate-continental forests. In Hungary, annual temperatures have increased by 1.2 °C–1.8 °C in the last 30 years and the frequency of extreme droughts has grown. With the aim to gain stand-level prospects of sustainability, we have used local forest site variables to identify and project effects of recent and expected changes of climate. We have used a climatic descriptor (FAI index) to compare trends estimated from forest datasets with climatological projections; this is likely for the first time such a comparison has been made. Four independent approaches confirmed the near-linear decline of growth and vitality with increasing hot droughts in summer, using sessile oak as model species. The correlation between droughts and the expansion of pest and disease damages was also found to be significant. Projections of expected changes of main site factors predict a dramatic rise of future drought frequency and, consequently, a substantial shift of forest climate classes, especially at low elevation. Excess water-dependent lowland forests may lose supply from groundwater, which may change vegetation cover and soil development processes. The overall change of site conditions not only causes economic losses, but also challenges long-term sustainability of forest cover at the xeric limits.

Shifts in tree functional composition amplify the response of forest biomass to climate

Forests have a key role in global ecosystems, hosting much of the world's terrestrial biodiversity and acting as a net sink for atmospheric carbon. These and other ecosystem services that are provided by forests may be sensitive to climate change as well as climate variability on shorter time scales (for example, annual to decadal). Previous studies have documented responses of forest ecosystems to climate change and climate variability, including drought-induced increases in tree mortality rates. However, relationships between forest biomass, tree species composition and climate variability have not been quantified across a large region using systematically sampled data. Here we use systematic forest inventories from the 1980s and 2000s across the eastern USA to show that forest biomass responds to decadal-scale changes in water deficit, and that this biomass response is amplified by concurrent changes in community-mean drought tolerance, a functionally important aspect of tree species composition. The amplification of the direct effects of water stress on biomass occurs because water stress tends to induce a shift in tree species composition towards species that are more tolerant to drought but are slower growing. These results demonstrate concurrent changes in forest species composition and biomass carbon storage across a large, systematically sampled region, and highlight the potential for climate-induced changes in forest ecosystems across the world, resulting from both direct effects of climate on forest biomass and indirect effects mediated by shifts in species composition.