Phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary demographic responses to climate change: taking theory out to the field

Conserving Evolutionary Potential: Combining Landscape Genomics with Established Methods to Inform Plant Conservation

Biodiversity conservation requires conserving evolutionary potential-the capacity for wild populations to adapt. Understanding genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics is critical for informing conservation decisions that enhance adaptability and persistence under environmental change. We review how emerging landscape genomic methods provide plant conservation programs with insights into evolutionary dynamics, including local adaptation and its environmental drivers. Landscape genomic approaches that explore relationships between genomic variation and environments complement rather than replace established population genomic and common garden approaches for assessing adaptive phenotypic variation, population structure, gene flow, and demography. Collectively, these approaches inform conservation actions, including genetic rescue, maladaptation prediction, and assisted gene flow. The greatest on-the-ground impacts from such studies will be realized when conservation practitioners are actively engaged in research and monitoring. Understanding the evolutionary dynamics shaping the genetic diversity of wild plant populations will inform plant conservation decisions that enhance the adaptability and persistence of species in an uncertain future.

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Incorporating climate-readiness into fisheries management strategies

Tropical oceans are among the first places to exhibit climate change signals, affecting the habitat distribution and abundance of marine fish. These changes to stocks, and subsequent impacts on fisheries production, may have considerable implications for coastal communities dependent on fisheries for food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of climate change on tropical marine fisheries is therefore an important step towards developing sustainable, climate-ready fisheries management measures. We apply an established method of spatial meta-analysis to assess species distribution modelling datasets for key species targeted by the Philippines capture fisheries. We analysed datasets under two global emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and varying degrees of fishing pressure to quantify potential climate vulnerability of the target community. We found widespread responses to climate change in pelagic species in particular, with abundances projected to decline across much of the case study area, highlighting the challenges of maintaining food security in the face of a rapidly changing climate. We argue that sustainable fisheries management in the Philippines in the face of climate change can only be achieved through management strategies that allow for the mitigation of, and adaptation to, pressures already locked into the climate system for the near term. Our analysis may support this, providing fisheries managers with the means to identify potential climate change hotspots, bright spots and refugia, thereby supporting the development of climate-ready management plans.

"A comparison of thermal stress response between Drosophila melanogaster and Drosophila pseudoobscura reveals differences between species and sexes"

The environment is changing faster than anticipated due to climate change, making species more vulnerable to its impacts. The level of vulnerability of species is influenced by factors such as the degree and duration of exposure, as well as the physiological sensitivity of organisms to changes in their environments, which has been shown to vary among species, populations, and individuals. Here, we compared physiological changes in fecundity, critical thermalmaximum (CTmax), respiratory quotient (RQ), and DNA damage in ovaries in response to temperature stress in two species of fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster (25 vs. 29.5 °C) and Drosophila pseudoobscura (20.5 vs. 25 °C). The fecundity of D. melanogaster was more affected by high temperatures when exposed during egg through adult development, while D. pseudoobscura was most significantly affected when exposed to high temperatures exclusively during egg through pupal development. Additionally, D. melanogaster males exhibited a decrease of CTmax under high temperatures, while females showed an increase of CTmax when exposed to high temperatures during egg through adult development. while D. pseudoobscura females and males showed an increased CTmax only when reared at high temperatures during egg through pupae development. Moreover, both species showed an acceleration in oogenesis and an increase in apoptosis due to heat stress. These changes can likely be attributed to key differences in the geographic range, thermal range, development time, and other different factors between these two systems. Through this comparison of variation in physiology and developmental response to thermal stress, we found important differences between species and sexes that suggest future work needs to account for these factors separately in understanding the effects of constant increased temperatures.

Metabolic and immune costs balance during natural acclimation of corals in fluctuating environments

Epigenetic modifications based on DNA methylation can rapidly improve the potential of corals to adapt to environmental pressures by increasing their phenotypic plasticity, a factor important for scleractinian corals to adapt to future global warming. However, the extent to which corals develop similar adaptive mechanisms and their specific adaptation processes remain unclear. Here, to reveal the regulatory mechanism by which DNA methylation improves thermal tolerance in Pocillopora damicornis under fluctuating environments, we analyzed genome-wide DNA methylation signatures in P. damicornis and compared the differences in the methylation and transcriptional responses of P. damicornis from fluctuating and stable environments using whole-genome bisulfite sequencing and nanopore-based RNA sequencingtranscriptome sequencing. We discovered low methylation levels in P. damicornis (average methylation 4.14%), with CpG accounting for 74.88%, CHH for 13.27%, and CHG for 11.85% of this methylation. However, methylation levels did not change between coral samples from the fluctuating and stable environments. The varied methylation levels in different regions of the gene revealed that the overall methylation level of the gene body was relatively high and showed a bimodal methylation pattern. Methylation occurs primarily in exons rather than introns within the gene body In P. damicornis, there was only a weak correlation between methylation and transcriptional changes at the individual gene level, and the methylation and gene expression levels generally exhibited a bell-shaped relationship, which we speculate may be due to the specificity of cnidarian species. Correlation analysis between methylation levels and the transcriptome revealed that the highest proportion of the top 20 enriched KEGG pathways was related to immunity. Additionally, P. damicornis collected from a high-temperature pool had a lower metabolic rate than those collected from a low-temperature pool. We hypothesize that the dynamic balance of energy-expenditure costs between immunity and metabolism is an important strategy for increasing P. damicornis tolerance. The fluctuating environment of high-temperature pools may increase the heat tolerance in corals by increasing their immunity and thus lowering their metabolism.

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity alter the cost of plasticity in Pristionchus pacificus

Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of a single genotype to produce distinct phenotypes under different environmental conditions, has become a leading concept in ecology and evolutionary biology, with the most extreme examples being the formation of alternative phenotypes (polyphenisms). However, several aspects associated with phenotypic plasticity remain controversial, such as the existence of associated costs. While already predicted by some of the pioneers of plasticity research, i.e. Schmalhausen and Bradshaw, experimental and theoretical approaches have provided limited support for the costs of plasticity. In experimental studies, one common restriction is the measurement of all relevant parameters over long time periods. Similarly, theoretical studies rarely use modelling approaches that incorporate specific experimentally-derived fitness parameters. Therefore, the existence of the costs of plasticity remains disputed. Here, we provide an integrative approach to understand the cost of adaptive plasticity and its ecological ramifications, by combining laboratory data from the nematode plasticity model system Pristionchus pacificus with a stage-structured population model. Taking advantage of measurements of two isogenic strains grown on two distinct diets, we illustrate how spatial and temporal heterogeneity with regard to the distribution of resources on a metapopulation can alter the outcome of the competition and alleviate the realized cost of plasticity.

Niche construction and the environmental term of the price equation: How natural selection changes when organisms alter their environments

Organisms construct their own environments and phenotypes through the adaptive processes of habitat choice, habitat construction, and phenotypic plasticity. We examine how these processes affect the dynamics of mean fitness change through the environmental change term of the Price Equation. This tends to be ignored in evolutionary theory, owing to the emphasis on the first term describing the effect of natural selection on mean fitness (the additive genetic variance for fitness of Fisher's Fundamental Theorem). Using population genetic models and the Price Equation, we show how adaptive niche constructing traits favorably alter the distribution of environments that organisms encounter and thereby increase population mean fitness. Because niche-constructing traits increase the frequency of higher-fitness environments, selection favors their evolution. Furthermore, their alteration of the actual or experienced environmental distribution creates selective feedback between niche constructing traits and other traits, especially those with genotype-by-environment interaction for fitness. By altering the distribution of experienced environments, niche constructing traits can increase the additive genetic variance for such traits. This effect accelerates the process of overall adaption to the niche-constructed environmental distribution and can contribute to the rapid refinement of alternative phenotypic adaptations to different environments. Our findings suggest that evolutionary biologists revisit and reevaluate the environmental term of the Price Equation: owing to adaptive niche construction, it contributes directly to positive change in mean fitness; its magnitude can be comparable to that of natural selection; and, when there is fitness G × E, it increases the additive genetic variance for fitness, the much-celebrated first term.

Two common, often coexisting grassland plant species differ in their evolutionary potential in response to experimental drought

For terrestrial plant communities, the increase in frequency and intensity of drought events is considered as one of the most severe consequences of climate change. While single-species studies demonstrate that drought can lead to relatively rapid adaptive genetic changes, the evolutionary potential and constraints to selection need to be assessed in comparative approaches to draw more general conclusions. In a greenhouse experiment, we compare the phenotypic response and evolutionary potential of two co-occurring grassland plant species, Bromus erectus and Trifolium pratense, in two environments differing in water availability. We quantified variation in functional traits and reproductive fitness in response to drought and compared multivariate genetic variance-covariance matrices and predicted evolutionary responses between species. Species showed different drought adaptation strategies, reflected in both their species-specific phenotypic plasticity and predicted responses to selection indicating contrasting evolutionary potential under drought. In T. pratense we found evidence for stronger genetic constraints under drought compared to more favourable conditions, and for some traits plastic and predicted evolutionary responses to drought had opposing directions, likely limiting the potential for adaptive change. Our study contributes to a more detailed understanding of the evolutionary potential of species with different adaptive strategies in response to climate change and may help to inform future scenarios for semi-natural grassland ecosystems.

Phenotypic response to different predator strategies can be mediated by temperature

Temperature change affects biological systems in multifaceted ways, including the alteration of species interaction strengths, with implications for the stability of populations and communities. Temperature-dependent changes to antipredatory responses are an emerging mechanism of destabilization and thus there is a need to understand how prey species respond to predation pressures in the face of changing temperatures. Here, using ciliate protozoans, we assess whether temperature can alter the strength of phenotypic antipredator responses in a prey species and whether this relationship depends on the predator's hunting behavior. We exposed populations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum to either (i) a sit-and-wait generalist predator (Homalozoon vermiculare) or (ii) a specialized active swimmer predator (Didinium nasutum) across two different temperature regimes (15 and 25°C) to quantify the temperature dependence of antipredator responses over a 24-h period. We utilized a novel high-throughput automated robotic monitoring system to track changes in the behavior (swimming speed) and morphology (cell size) of P. caudatum at frequencies and resolutions previously unachievable by manual sampling. The change in swimming speed through the 24 h differed between the two temperatures but was not altered by the presence of the predators. In contrast, P. caudatum showed a substantial temperature-dependent morphological response to the presence of D. nasutum (but not H. vermiculare), changing cell shape toward a more elongated morph at 15°C (but not at 25°C). Our findings suggest that temperature can have strong effects on prey morphological responses to predator presence, but that this response is potentially dependent on the predator's feeding strategy. This suggests that greater consideration of synergistic antipredator behavioral and physiological responses is required in species and communities subject to environmental changes.

Antagonistic Effects of Assortative Mating on the Evolution of Phenotypic Plasticity along Environmental Gradients

AbstractPrevious theory has shown that assortative mating for plastic traits can maintain genetic divergence across environmental gradients despite high gene flow. Yet these models did not examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity. We here describe patterns of genetic variation across elevation for plasticity in a trait under assortative mating, using multiple-year observations of budburst date in a common garden of sessile oaks. Despite high gene flow, we found significant spatial genetic divergence for the intercept, but not for the slope, of reaction norms to temperature. We then used individual-based simulations, where both the slope and the intercept of the reaction norm evolve, to examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity, varying the intensity and distance of gene flow. Our model predicts the evolution of either suboptimal plasticity (reaction norms with a slope shallower than optimal) or hyperplasticity (slopes steeper than optimal) in the presence of assortative mating when optimal plasticity would evolve under random mating. Furthermore, a cogradient pattern of genetic divergence for the intercept of the reaction norm (where plastic and genetic effects are in the same direction) always evolves in simulations with assortative mating, consistent with our observations in the studied oak populations.

Plant Species' Capacity for Range Shifts at the Habitat and Geographic Scales: A Trade-Off-Based Framework

Climate change is causing rapid shifts in the abiotic and biotic environmental conditions experienced by plant populations, but we lack generalizable frameworks for predicting the consequences for species. These changes may cause individuals to become poorly matched to their environments, potentially inducing shifts in the distributions of populations and altering species' habitat and geographic ranges. We present a trade-off-based framework for understanding and predicting whether plant species may undergo range shifts, based on ecological strategies defined by functional trait variation. We define a species' capacity for undergoing range shifts as the product of its colonization ability and the ability to express a phenotype well-suited to the environment across life stages (phenotype-environment matching), which are both strongly influenced by a species' ecological strategy and unavoidable trade-offs in function. While numerous strategies may be successful in an environment, severe phenotype-environment mismatches result in habitat filtering: propagules reach a site but cannot establish there. Operating within individuals and populations, these processes will affect species' habitat ranges at small scales, and aggregated across populations, will determine whether species track climatic changes and undergo geographic range shifts. This trade-off-based framework can provide a conceptual basis for species distribution models that are generalizable across plant species, aiding in the prediction of shifts in plant species' ranges in response to climate change.

A predictive timeline of wildlife population collapse

Contemporary rates of biodiversity decline emphasize the need for reliable ecological forecasting, but current methods vary in their ability to predict the declines of real-world populations. Acknowledging that stressor effects start at the individual level, and that it is the sum of these individual-level effects that drives populations to collapse, shifts the focus of predictive ecology away from using predominantly abundance data. Doing so opens new opportunities to develop predictive frameworks that utilize increasingly available multi-dimensional data, which have previously been overlooked for ecological forecasting. Here, we propose that stressed populations will exhibit a predictable sequence of observable changes through time: changes in individuals' behaviour will occur as the first sign of increasing stress, followed by changes in fitness-related morphological traits, shifts in the dynamics (for example, birth rates) of populations and finally abundance declines. We discuss how monitoring the sequential appearance of these signals may allow us to discern whether a population is increasingly at risk of collapse, or is adapting in the face of environmental change, providing a conceptual framework to develop new forecasting methods that combine multi-dimensional (for example, behaviour, morphology, life history and abundance) data.

Evolution of thermal performance curves: A meta-analysis of selection experiments

Temperatures are increasing due to global changes, putting biodiversity at risk. Organisms are faced with a limited set of options to cope with this situation: adapt, disperse or die. We here focus on the first possibility, more specifically, on evolutionary adaptations to temperature. Ectotherms are usually characterized by a hump-shaped relationship between fitness and temperature, a non-linear reaction norm that is referred to as thermal performance curve (TPC). To understand and predict impacts of global change, we need to know whether and how such TPCs evolve. Therefore, we performed a systematic literature search and a statistical meta-analysis focusing on experimental evolution and artificial selection studies. This focus allows us to directly quantify relative fitness responses to temperature selection by calculating fitness differences between TPCs from ancestral and derived populations after thermal selection. Out of 7561 publications screened, we found 47 studies corresponding to our search criteria representing taxa across the tree of life, from bacteria, to plants and vertebrates. We show that, independently of species identity, the studies we found report a positive response to temperature selection. Considering entire TPC shapes, adaptation to higher temperatures traded off with fitness at lower temperatures, leading to niche shifts. Effects were generally stronger in unicellular organisms. By contrast, we do not find statistical support for the often discussed "Hotter is better" hypothesis. While our meta-analysis provides evidence for adaptive potential of TPCs across organisms, it also highlights that more experimental work is needed, especially for under-represented taxa, such as plants and non-model systems.

Plasticity's role in adaptive evolution depends on environmental change components

To forecast extinction risks of natural populations under climate change and direct human impacts, an integrative understanding of both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution is essential. To date, the evidence for whether, when, and how much plasticity facilitates adaptive responses in changing environments is contradictory. We argue that explicitly considering three key environmental change components - rate of change, variance, and temporal autocorrelation - affords a unifying framework of the impact of plasticity on adaptive evolution. These environmental components each distinctively effect evolutionary and ecological processes underpinning population viability. Using this framework, we develop expectations regarding the interplay between plasticity and adaptive evolution in natural populations. This framework has the potential to improve predictions of population viability in a changing world.

Genetic variation underlies plastic responses to global change drivers in the purple sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus

Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution enable population persistence in response to global change. However, there are few experiments that test how these processes interact within and across generations, especially in marine species with broad distributions experiencing spatially and temporally variable temperature and pCO2. We employed a quantitative genetics experiment with the purple sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, to decompose family-level variation in transgenerational and developmental plastic responses to ecologically relevant temperature and pCO2. Adults were conditioned to controlled non-upwelling (high temperature, low pCO2) or upwelling (low temperature, high pCO2) conditions. Embryos were reared in either the same conditions as their parents or the crossed environment, and morphological aspects of larval body size were quantified. We find evidence of family-level phenotypic plasticity in response to different developmental environments. Among developmental environments, there was substantial additive genetic variance for one body size metric when larvae developed under upwelling conditions, although this differed based on parental environment. Furthermore, cross-environment correlations indicate significant variance for genotype-by-environment interactive effects. Therefore, genetic variation for plasticity is evident in early stages of S. purpuratus, emphasizing the importance of adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity in organismal responses to global change.

Genotypic variation and plasticity in climate-adaptive traits after range expansion and fragmentation of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.)

Shifting range limits are predicted for many species as the climate warms. However, the rapid pace of climate change will challenge the natural dispersal capacity of long-lived, sessile organisms such as forest trees. Adaptive responses of populations will, therefore, depend on levels of genetic variation and plasticity for climate-responsive traits, which likely vary across the range due to expansion history and current patterns of selection. Here, we study levels of genetic and plastic variation for phenology and growth traits in populations of red spruce (Picea rubens), from the range core to the highly fragmented trailing edge. We measured more than 5000 offspring sampled from three genetically distinct regions (core, margin and edge) grown in three common gardens replicated along a latitudinal gradient. Genetic variation in phenology and growth showed low to moderate heritability and differentiation among regions, suggesting some potential to respond to selection. Phenology traits were highly plastic, but this plasticity was generally neutral or maladaptive in the effect on growth, revealing a potential liability under warmer climates. These results suggest future climate adaptation will depend on the regional availability of genetic variation in red spruce and provide a resource for the design and management of assisted gene flow. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Loss of transcriptional plasticity but sustained adaptive capacity after adaptation to global change conditions in a marine copepod

Adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity will fuel resilience in the geologically unprecedented warming and acidification of the earth’s oceans, however, we have much to learn about the interactions and costs of these mechanisms of resilience. Here, using 20 generations of experimental evolution followed by three generations of reciprocal transplants, we investigated the relationship between adaptation and plasticity in the marine copepod, Acartia tonsa, in future global change conditions (high temperature and high CO₂). We found parallel adaptation to global change conditions in genes related to stress response, gene expression regulation, actin regulation, developmental processes, and energy production. However, reciprocal transplantation showed that adaptation resulted in a loss of transcriptional plasticity, reduced fecundity, and reduced population growth when global change-adapted animals were returned to ambient conditions or reared in low food conditions. However, after three successive transplant generations, global change-adapted animals were able to match the ambient-adaptive transcriptional profile. Concurrent changes in allele frequencies and erosion of nucleotide diversity suggest that this recovery occurred via adaptation back to ancestral conditions. These results demonstrate that while plasticity facilitated initial survival in global change conditions, it eroded after 20 generations as populations adapted, limiting resilience to new stressors and previously benign environments.

Rapid adaptation will facilitate species resilience under global climate change, but its effects on plasticity are less commonly investigated. This study shows that 20 generations of experimental adaptation in a marine copepod drives a rapid loss of plasticity that carries costs and might have impacts on future resilience to environmental change.

DNA Methylation Can Mediate Local Adaptation and Response to Climate Change in the Clonal Plant Fragaria vesca: Evidence From a European-Scale Reciprocal Transplant Experiment

The ongoing climate crisis represents a growing threat for plants and other organisms. However, how and if plants will be able to adapt to future environmental conditions is still debated. One of the most powerful mechanisms allowing plants to tackle the changing climate is phenotypic plasticity, which can be regulated by epigenetic mechanisms. Environmentally induced epigenetic variation mediating phenotypic plasticity might be heritable across (a)sexual generations, thus potentially enabling rapid adaptation to climate change. Here, we assessed whether epigenetic mechanisms, DNA methylation in particular, enable for local adaptation and response to increased and/or decreased temperature of natural populations of a clonal plant, Fragaria vesca (wild strawberry). We collected ramets from three populations along a temperature gradient in each of three countries covering the southern (Italy), central (Czechia), and northern (Norway) edges of the native European range of F. vesca. After clonal propagation and alteration of DNA methylation status of half of the plants via 5-azacytidine, we reciprocally transplanted clones to their home locality and to the other two climatically distinct localities within the country of their origin. At the end of the growing season, we recorded survival and aboveground biomass as fitness estimates. We found evidence for local adaptation in intermediate and cold populations in Italy and maladaptation of plants of the warmest populations in all countries. Plants treated with 5-azacytidine showed either better or worse performance in their local conditions than untreated plants. Application of 5-azacytidine also affected plant response to changed climatic conditions when transplanted to the colder or warmer locality than was their origin, and the response was, however, country-specific. We conclude that the increasing temperature will probably be the limiting factor determining F. vesca survival and distribution. DNA methylation may contribute to local adaptation and response to climatic change in natural ecosystems; however, its role may depend on the specific environmental conditions. Since adaptation mediated by epigenetic variation may occur faster than via natural selection on genetic variants, epigenetic adaptation might to some degree help plants in keeping up with the ongoing environmental crisis.

Evolution of flowering time in a selfing annual plant: Roles of adaptation and genetic drift

Resurrection studies are a useful tool to measure how phenotypic traits have changed in populations through time. If these trait modifications correlate with the environmental changes that occurred during the time period, it suggests that the phenotypic changes could be a response to selection. Selfing, through its reduction of effective size, could challenge the ability of a population to adapt to environmental changes. Here, we used a resurrection study to test for adaptation in a selfing population of Medicago truncatula, by comparing the genetic composition and flowering times across 22 generations. We found evidence for evolution toward earlier flowering times by about two days and a peculiar genetic structure, typical of highly selfing populations, where some multilocus genotypes (MLGs) are persistent through time. We used the change in frequency of the MLGs through time as a multilocus fitness measure and built a selection gradient that suggests evolution toward earlier flowering times. Yet, a simulation model revealed that the observed change in flowering time could be explained by drift alone, provided the effective size of the population is small enough (<150). These analyses suffer from the difficulty to estimate the effective size in a highly selfing population, where effective recombination is severely reduced.

Low-Altitude Boundary of Abies faxoniana Is More Susceptible to Long-Term Open-Top Chamber Warming in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

With global climate change, for evaluating warming effect on subalpine forest distribution, the substantial effects of long-term warming on tree growth and soil nutrients need to be explored. In this study, we focused on different responses in the boundaries of trees and soils to warming. Using the open-top chamber (OTC), a 10-year artificial warming experiment was conducted to evaluate the impacts of warming on Abies faxoniana at three different altitudes. We determined metabolites and nutrient concentrations in needles of A. faxoniana and characterized the soil chemistries. Many kinds of sugars, amino acids, and organic acids showed higher contents at high altitude (3,500 m) compared with low altitude (2,600 m), which could have been due to the temperature differences. Warming significantly decreased needle sugar and amino acid concentrations at high altitude but increased them at low altitude. These results indicated contrasting physiological and metabolic responses of A. faxoniana to long-term warming at different altitudes. Furthermore, we found that OTC warming significantly increased the concentrations of soil extractable sodium, aluminum (Al), and manganese (Mn), while decreased potassium (K) and phosphorus (P) concentrations and pH values at low altitude rather than at middle (3,000 m) or high altitude. The soil carbon and nitrogen contents were increased only at the middle altitude. In A. faxoniana at low altitudes, more mineral nutrients iron, K, and P were demand, and a mass of Al, Mn, and zinc was accumulated under warming. Soil P limitation and heavy metals accumulation are disadvantageous for trees at low altitudes with warming. Therefore, compared with high altitudes, A. faxoniana growing at low boundary in alpine regions is expected to be more susceptible to warming.

Dissecting impacts of phenological shifts for performance across biological scales

Although phenological shifts in response to climate are often assumed to benefit species' performance and viability, phenology's role in allowing population persistence and mediating species-level responses in the face of climate change remain unclear. Here, we develop a framework to understand when and why phenological shifts at three biological scales will influence performance: individuals, populations, and macroecological patterns. Specifically, we highlight three underexplored assumptions: (i) individual variability in phenology does not affect population fitness; (ii) population growth rates are sensitive to vital rates affected by phenology; and (iii) phenology mediates species-level responses to climate change including patterns of extinction, invasion, and range shifts. We outline promising methods for understanding how phenological shifts will influence performance within and across biological scales.

Environmental conditions variably affect growth across the breeding season in a subarctic seabird

Predicting the impacts of changing environments on phenotypes in wild populations remains a challenge. Growth, a trait that frequently influences fitness, is difficult to study as it is influenced by many environmental variables. To address this, we used a sliding window approach to determine the time windows when sea-surface and air temperatures have the potential to affect growth of black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) on a colony in the Northeast Pacific. We examined environmental drivers influencing nestling growth using data from a long-term (21-year) study, that food supplements a portion of the colony. The associations between kittiwake growth and climatic conditions in our study indicated that warmer environmental conditions can both positively and negatively impact nestling growth parameters depending on hatching order. We found that first-hatched nestlings had a heavier maximum mass under warm air temperatures and cold sea conditions. Warmer air temperatures negatively affected the second-hatched nestling in a brood. However, when air temperatures were warm, warmer sea-surface temperatures predicted heavy, fast-growing second-hatched nestlings in contrast to what we observed for first-hatched nestlings. Food supplementation alleviated the temperature effects, and competition among nestlings influenced how strongly a variable affected growth. We identified windows that might indicate specific biological pathways through which environmental variation affected growth directly or indirectly. Overall, our windows suggest that nestlings in shared nests will be most affected by warming conditions.

European oak chemical diversity - from ecotypes to herbivore resistance

Climate change is increasing insect pressure and forcing plants to adapt. Although chemotypic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity in spatially separated tree populations are known for decades, understanding their importance in herbivory resistance across forests remains challenging. We studied four oak forest stands in Germany using nontarget metabolomics, elemental analysis, and chemometrics and mapped the leaf metabolome of herbivore-resistant (T-) and herbivore-susceptible (S-) European oaks (Quercus robur) to Tortrix viridana, an oak pest that causes severe forest defoliation. Among the detected metabolites, we identified reliable metabolic biomarkers to distinguish S- and T-oak trees. Chemotypic differentiation resulted in metabolic shifts of primary and secondary leaf metabolism. Across forests, T-oaks allocate resources towards constitutive chemical defense enriched of polyphenolic compounds, e.g. the flavonoids kaempferol, kaempferol and quercetin glucosides, while S-oaks towards growth-promoting substances such as carbohydrates and amino-acid derivatives. This extensive work across natural forests shows that oaks' resistance and susceptibility to herbivory are linked to growth-defense trade-offs of leaf metabolism. The discovery of biomarkers and the developed predictive model pave the way to understand Quercus robur's susceptibility to herbivore attack and to support forest management, contributing to the preservation of oak forests in Europe.

Phenotypic plasticity of fungal traits in response to moisture and temperature

Phenotypic plasticity of traits is commonly measured in plants to improve understanding of organismal and ecosystem responses to climate change but is far less studied for microbes. Specifically, decomposer fungi are thought to display high levels of phenotypic plasticity and their functions have important implications for ecosystem dynamics. Assessing the phenotypic plasticity of fungal traits may therefore be important for predicting fungal community response to climate change. Here, we assess the phenotypic plasticity of 15 fungal isolates (12 species) from a Southern California grassland. Fungi were incubated on litter at five moisture levels (ranging from 4-50% water holding capacity) and at five temperatures (ranging from 4-36 °C). After incubation, fungal biomass and activities of four extracellular enzymes (cellobiohydrolase (CBH), β-glucosidase (BG), β-xylosidase (BX), and N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase (NAG)) were measured. We used response surface methodology to determine how fungal phenotypic plasticity differs across the moisture-temperature gradient. We hypothesized that fungal biomass and extracellular enzyme activities would vary with moisture and temperature and that the shape of the response surface would vary between fungal isolates. We further hypothesized that more closely related fungi would show more similar response surfaces across the moisture-temperature gradient. In support of our hypotheses, we found that plasticity differed between fungi along the temperature gradient for fungal biomass and for all the extracellular enzyme activities. Plasticity also differed between fungi along the moisture gradient for BG activity. These differences appear to be caused by variation mainly at the moisture and temperature extremes. We also found that more closely related fungi had more similar extracellular enzymes activities at the highest temperature. Altogether, this evidence suggests that with global warming, fungal biodiversity may become increasingly important as functional traits tend to diverge along phylogenetic lines at higher temperatures.

Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty

A formidable challenge for global change biologists is to predict how natural populations will respond to the emergence of conditions not observed at present, termed novel climates. Popular approaches to predict population vulnerability are based on the expected degree of novelty relative to the amplitude of historical climate fluctuations experienced by a population. Here, we argue that predictions focused on amplitude may be inaccurate because they ignore the predictability of environmental fluctuations in driving patterns of evolution and responses to climate change. To address this disconnect, we review major findings of evolutionary theory demonstrating the conditions under which phenotypic plasticity is likely to evolve in natural populations, and how plasticity decreases population vulnerability to novel environments. We outline key criteria that experimental studies should aim for to effectively test theoretical predictions, while controlling for the degree of climate novelty. We show that such targeted tests of evolutionary theory are rare, with marine systems being overall underrepresented in this venture despite exhibiting unique opportunities to test theory. We conclude that with more robust experimental designs that manipulate both the amplitude and predictability of fluctuations, while controlling for the degree of novelty, we may better predict population vulnerability to climate change.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Photosynthetic sensitivity to historic meteorological variability for conifers in the eastern Sierra Nevada

Increased climatic variability can impact tree physiological processes beyond what is predicted from changes in mean conditions. We assessed the sensitivity of conifer saplings to spatial and temporal variability in meteorological conditions, taking advantage of the end of California's historic drought and the exceedingly wet winter of 2017. We sought to understand how very dry and very wet conditions constrain photosynthesis and growth in four regionally dominant conifers and whether sensitivity in these processes changes across a 500 m gradient in elevation. All species demonstrated phenotypic plasticity in response to temporal differences in precipitation on both inter-annual and seasonal timescales. Net photosynthesis in Pinus contorta decreased from an early season 2016 average of 12.4 to 6.89 μmol CO₂ m^-2 s^-1 later in the summer, but increased 14.1% between seasons in the wet year. By contrast, elevation had almost no effect on instantaneous photosynthetic gas exchange, CO₂ response curve parameters, or stem water potential in any of the years for any of the species. Effects of the heavy snow year (2017) on needle growth differed between elevations. Pinus contorta showed a 38.9% increase in average needle length at the lower two elevations but a 31.6% decrease at the highest site compared to the height of the drought. Despite these differences, biological variation was dampened compared to the physical variation between years, suggesting these trees can effectively withstand substantial meteorological variability. Our results show that these species demonstrated considerable ability to tolerate and recover from an extreme drought event.

Relaxation of putative plant defenses in a tropical agroecosystem

Evidence of the effects of agriculture on natural systems is widespread, but potential evolutionary responses in nontarget species are largely uncharacterized. To explore whether exposure to agrochemicals may influence selective pressures and phenotypic expression in nonagricultural plant populations, we characterized the expression of putative antiherbivore defense phenotypes in three nonagricultural species found upstream and downstream of irrigated rice fields in Guanacaste Province, Costa Rica. We found that plants downstream of chemically intensive agriculture showed shifts toward reduced expression of putative antiherbivore defenses relative to upstream counterparts. In two of three tested species, leaf extracts from downstream plants were more palatable to a generalist consumer, suggesting a possible reduction of chemical defenses. In one species with multiple modes of putative defenses, we observed parallel reductions of three metrics of putative biotic and physical defenses. These reductions were concurrent with reduced herbivore damage on downstream plants. Together, these results suggest that agriculture has the potential to alter intraspecific phenotypic expression, ecological interactions, and natural selection in nontarget plant populations.

Time course of acclimation of critical thermal limits in two springtail species (Collembola)

Critical thermal limits are one of the most important sources of information on the possible impacts of climate change on soil microarthropods. The extent of plasticity of tolerance limits can provide valuable insights about the likely responses of ectotherms to environmental change. Although many studies have investigated various aspects of the acclimatory response of thermal limits to temperature changes in arthropods, the number of studies focusing on the temporal dynamics of this plastic response is relatively small. Collembola, one of the key microarthropods groups in almost all soil ecosystems around the world, have been the focus of several thermal acclimation studies. Yet the time course of acclimation and its reversal have not been widely studied in this group. Here we investigated the time course of acclimation of critical thermal maxima (CT_max) and minima (CT_min) of two springtail species. We exposed a Cryptopygus species from temperate southern Australia to high and low temperature conditions and Mucrosomia caeca from Sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island to high temperature conditions. Upper thermal limits in both species were found to be highly constrained, as CT_max did not show substantial response to high and low temperature acclimation both in the Cryptopygus species and M. caeca, whereas CT_min showed significant responses to high and low temperature conditions. The acclimation begins to stabilize in approximately seven days in all treatments except for the acclimation of CT_min under high temperature conditions, where the pattern of change suggests that this acclimation might take longer to be completed. Although reversal of this acclimation also begins to stabilize under 7 days, re-acclimation was relatively slow as we did not observe a very clear settling point in 2 of the 3 re-acclimation treatments. The observed limits on the plasticity of CT_max indicate that both of these species may be very limited in their ability to respond plastically to short-term rapid changes in temperature (i.e temperature extremes).

Aridity drives coordinated trait shifts but not decreased trait variance across the geographic range of eight Australian trees

Large intraspecific functional trait variation strongly impacts many aspects of communities and ecosystems, and is the medium upon which evolution works. Yet intraspecific trait variation is inconsistent and hard to predict across traits, species and locations. We measured within-species variation in leaf mass per area (LMA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), branch wood density (WD), and allocation to stem area vs leaf area in branches (branch Huber value (HV)) across the aridity range of seven Australian eucalypts and a co-occurring Acacia species to explore how traits and their variances change with aridity. Within species, we found consistent increases in LMA, LDMC and WD and HV with increasing aridity, resulting in consistent trait coordination across leaves and branches. However, this coordination only emerged across sites with large climate differences. Unlike trait means, patterns of trait variance with aridity were mixed across populations and species. Only LDMC showed constrained trait variation in more xeric species and drier populations that could indicate limits to plasticity or heritable trait variation. Our results highlight that climate can drive consistent within-species trait patterns, but that patterns might often be obscured by the complex nature of morphological traits, sampling incomplete species ranges or sampling confounded stress gradients.

The Effects of Weather on Avian Growth and Implications for Adaptation to Climate Change

Climate change is forecasted to generate a range of evolutionary changes and plastic responses. One important aspect of avian responses to climate change is how weather conditions may change nestling growth and development. Early life growth is sensitive to environmental effects and can potentially have long-lasting effects on adult phenotypes and fitness. A detailed understanding of both how and when weather conditions affect the entire growth trajectory of a nestling may help predict population changes in phenotypes and demography under climate change. This review covers three main topics on the impacts of weather variation (air temperature, rainfall, wind speed, solar radiation) on nestling growth. Firstly, we highlight why understanding the effects of weather on nestling growth might be important in understanding adaptation to, and population persistence in, environments altered by climate change. Secondly, we review the documented effects of weather variation on nestling growth curves. We investigate both altricial and precocial species, but we find a limited number of studies on precocial species in the wild. Increasing temperatures and rainfall have mixed effects on nestling growth, while increasing windspeeds tend to have negative impacts on the growth rate of open cup nesting species. Thirdly, we discuss how weather variation might affect the evolution of nestling growth traits and suggest that more estimates of the inheritance of and selection acting on growth traits in natural settings are needed to make evolutionary predictions. We suggest that predictions will be improved by considering concurrently changing selection pressures like urbanization. The importance of adaptive plastic or evolutionary changes in growth may depend on where a species or population is located geographically and the species’ life-history. Detailed characterization of the effects of weather on growth patterns will help answer whether variation in avian growth frequently plays a role in adaption to climate change.

Evolvability of Drought Response in Four Native and Non-native Conifers: Opportunities for Forest and Genetic Resource Management in Europe

Intraspecific genetic variation in drought response is expected to play an important role in determining the persistence of tree populations in global change as it (1) allows for spontaneous selection and local adaptation of tree populations, (2) supports assisted seed transfer of less-drought-sensitive provenance, and (3) enables the integration of drought-sensitivity traits into tree breeding. Estimating the potential of such adaptation options requires quantitative genetic knowledge of drought sensitivity across significant parts of species distributions and a comparative assessment of genetic variation within economically and ecologically important tree species. We quantified genetic variation within and among populations of four conifers growing within common garden experiments in the drought-prone eastern Austria. This region experienced three strong drought periods between 1980 and 2010 that resulted in significant reductions in radial growth. Among the four tested species, Douglas-fir revealed the highest resistance during drought and silver fir the best recovery after drought, while European larch and Norway spruce showed the lowest resistance. High genetic variation among populations and phenotypic stability across all three drought events was found for Norway spruce and silver fir, but not for the other species. Heritability and evolvability of drought traits, both approximated via genetic repeatability, revealed strong differences among populations of all four species. Repeatability and evolvability for resistance were highest in Norway spruce and, for recovery, highest in European larch. Our comparison indicates that the mean drought sensitivity of a species is not related to the intraspecific genetic variation in drought response. Thus, also highly drought-sensitive species, such as Norway spruce and European larch, harbor significant genetic variation in drought response within and among populations to justify targeted tree breeding, assisted gene flow, and supportive forest management to foster local adaptations to future conditions.

Seed Sourcing Strategies Considering Climate Change Forecasts: A Practical Test in Scots Pine

Research Highlights: We experimentally tested different seed sourcing strategies (local, predictive, climate-predictive, climate-adjusted, composite and admixture) under a climate change high emissions scenario using a Scots pine multi-site provenance test. Background and Objectives: There is an urgent need to conserve genetic resources and to support resilience of conifer species facing expected changes and threats. Seed sourcing strategies have been proposed to maximize the future adaptation and resilience of our forests. However, these proposals are yet to be tested, especially in long-lived organisms as forest trees, due to methodological constraints. In addition, some methods rely on the transfer of material from populations matching the future conditions of the sites. However, at the rear edge of the species, some specific problems (high fragmentation, high genetic differentiation, role of genetic drift) challenge the theoretical expectations of some of these methods. Materials and Methods: We used a Scots pine multi-site provenance test, consisting of seventeen provenances covering the distribution range of the species in Spain tested in five representative sites. We measured height, diameter and survival at 5, 10 and 15 years after planting. We simulated populations of 50 trees by bootstrapping material of the provenance test after removing the intra-site environmental effects, simulating different seed sourcing strategies. Results: We found that local and predictive methods behaved better than methods based on the selection of future climate-matching strategies (predictive-climate and climate-adjusted) and those combining several seed sources (composite and admixture seed sourcing strategies). Conclusions: Despite the theoretical expectations, for Scots pine, a forest tree species at its rear edge of its distribution, seed-sourcing methods based on climate matching or a combination of seed sources do not perform better than traditional local or predictive methods or they are not feasible because of the lack of future climate-matching populations.

Reduced phenotypic plasticity evolves in less predictable environments

Phenotypic plasticity is a prominent mechanism for coping with variable environments, and a key determinant of extinction risk. Evolutionary theory predicts that phenotypic plasticity should evolve to lower levels in environments that fluctuate less predictably, because they induce mismatches between plastic responses and selective pressures. However, this prediction is difficult to test in nature, where environmental predictability is not controlled. Here, we exposed 32 lines of the halotolerant microalga Dunaliella salina to ecologically realistic, randomly fluctuating salinity, with varying levels of predictability, for 500 generations. We found that morphological plasticity evolved to lower degrees in lines that experienced less predictable environments. Evolution of plasticity mostly concerned phases with slow population growth, rather than the exponential phase where microbes are typically phenotyped. This study underlines that long‐term experiments with complex patterns of environmental change are needed to test theories about population responses to altered environmental predictability, as currently observed under climate change.

Environmentally-induced parental or developmental conditioning influences coral offspring ecological performance

The persistence of reef building corals is threatened by human-induced environmental change. Maintaining coral reefs into the future requires not only the survival of adults, but also the influx of recruits to promote genetic diversity and retain cover following adult mortality. Few studies examine the linkages among multiple life stages of corals, despite a growing knowledge of carryover effects in other systems. We provide a novel test of coral parental conditioning to ocean acidification (OA) and tracking of offspring for 6 months post-release to better understand parental or developmental priming impacts on the processes of offspring recruitment and growth. Coral planulation was tracked for 3 months following adult exposure to high pCO2 and offspring from the second month were reciprocally exposed to ambient and high pCO2 for an additional 6 months. Offspring of parents exposed to high pCO2 had greater settlement and survivorship immediately following release, retained survivorship benefits during 1 and 6 months of continued exposure, and further displayed growth benefits to at least 1 month post release. Enhanced performance of offspring from parents exposed to high conditions was maintained despite the survivorship in both treatments declining in continued exposure to OA. Conditioning of the adults while they brood their larvae, or developmental acclimation of the larvae inside the adult polyps, may provide a form of hormetic conditioning, or environmental priming that elicits stimulatory effects. Defining mechanisms of positive acclimatization, with potential implications for carry over effects, cross-generational plasticity, and multi-generational plasticity, is critical to better understanding ecological and evolutionary dynamics of corals under regimes of increasing environmental disturbance. Considering environmentally-induced parental or developmental legacies in ecological and evolutionary projections may better account for coral reef response to the chronic stress regimes characteristic of climate change.

Environmental fluctuations can promote evolutionary rescue in high-extinction-risk scenarios

Substantial environmental change can force a population onto a path towards extinction, but under some conditions, adaptation by natural selection can rescue the population and allow it to persist. This process, known as evolutionary rescue, is believed to be less likely to occur with greater magnitudes of random environmental fluctuations because environmental variation decreases expected population size, increases variance in population size and increases evolutionary lag. However, previous studies of evolutionary rescue in fluctuating environments have only considered scenarios in which evolutionary rescue was likely to occur. We extend these studies to assess how baseline extinction risk (which we manipulated via changes in the initial population size, degree of environmental change or mutation rate) influences the effects of environmental variation on evolutionary rescue following an abrupt environmental change. Using a combination of analytical models and stochastic simulations, we show that autocorrelated environmental variation hinders evolutionary rescue in low-extinction-risk scenarios but facilitates rescue in high-risk scenarios. In these high-risk cases, the chance of a run of good years counteracts the otherwise negative effects of environmental variation on evolutionary demography. These findings can inform the development of effective conservation practices that consider evolutionary responses to abrupt environmental changes.

Among-individual and within-individual variation in seasonal migration covaries with subsequent reproductive success in a partially migratory bird

Within-individual and among-individual variation in expression of key environmentally sensitive traits, and associated variation in fitness components occurring within and between years, determine the extents of phenotypic plasticity and selection and shape population responses to changing environments. Reversible seasonal migration is one key trait that directly mediates spatial escape from seasonally deteriorating environments, causing spatio-seasonal population dynamics. Yet, within-individual and among-individual variation in seasonal migration versus residence, and dynamic associations with subsequent reproductive success, have not been fully quantified. We used novel capture-mark-recapture mixture models to assign individual European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) to 'resident', 'early migrant', or 'late migrant' strategies in two consecutive years, using year-round local resightings. We demonstrate substantial among-individual variation in strategy within years, and directional within-individual change between years. Furthermore, subsequent reproductive success varied substantially among strategies, and relationships differed between years; residents and late migrants had highest success in the 2 years, respectively, matching the years in which these strategies were most frequently expressed. These results imply that migratory strategies can experience fluctuating reproductive selection, and that flexible expression of migration can be partially aligned with reproductive outcomes. Plastic seasonal migration could then potentially contribute to adaptive population responses to currently changing forms of environmental seasonality.

Functional significance of phylogeographic structure in a toxic benthic marine microbial eukaryote over a latitudinal gradient along the East Australian Current

Genetic diversity in marine microbial eukaryotic populations (protists) drives their ecological success by enabling diverse phenotypes to respond rapidly to changing environmental conditions. Despite enormous population sizes and lack of barriers to gene flow, genetic differentiation that is associated with geographic distance, currents, and environmental gradients has been reported from planktonic protists. However, for benthic protists, which have reduced dispersal opportunities, phylogeography and its phenotypic significance are little known. In recent years, the East Australian Current (EAC) has intensified its southward flow, associated with the tropicalization of temperate waters. Benthic harmful algal species have been increasingly found in south-eastern Australia. Yet little is known about the potential of these species to adapt or extend their range in relation to changing conditions. Here, we examine genetic diversity and functional niche divergence in a toxic benthic dinoflagellate, Ostreopsis cf. siamensis, along a 1,500 km north-south gradient in southeastern Australia. Sixty-eight strains were established from eight sampling sites. The study revealed long-standing genetic diversity among strains established from the northern-most sites, along with large phenotypic variation in observed physiological traits such as growth rates, cell volume, production of palytoxin-like compounds, and photophysiological parameters. Strains from the southern populations were more uniform in both genetic and functional traits, and have possibly colonized their habitats more recently. Our study reports significant genetic and functional trait variability in a benthic harmful algal species, indicative of high adaptability, and a possible climate-driven range extension. The observed high trait variation may facilitate development of harmful algal blooms under dynamic coastal environmental conditions.

Global assessment of relationships between climate and tree growth

Tree-ring records provide global high-resolution information on tree-species responses to global change, forest carbon and water dynamics, and past climate variability and extremes. The underlying assumption is a stationary (time-stable), quasi-linear relationship between tree growth and environment, which however conflicts with basic ecological and evolutionary theory. Indeed, our global assessment of the relevant tree-ring literature demonstrates non-stationarity in the majority of tested cases, not limited to specific proxies, environmental parameters, regions or species. Non-stationarity likely represents the general nature of the relationship between tree-growth proxies and environment. Studies assuming stationarity however score two times more citations influencing other fields of science and the science-policy interface. To reconcile ecological reality with the application of tree-ring proxies for climate or environmental estimates, we provide a clarification of the stationarity concept, propose a simple confidence framework for the re-evaluation of existing studies and recommend the use of a new statistical tool to detect non-stationarity in tree-ring proxies. Our contribution is meant to stimulate and facilitate discussion in light of our results to help increase confidence in tree-ring-based climate and environmental estimates for science, the public and policymakers.

Moisture-driven shift in the climate sensitivity of white spruce xylem anatomical traits is coupled to large-scale oscillation patterns across northern treeline in northwest North America

Tree growth at northern treelines is generally temperature-limited due to cold and short growing seasons. However, temperature-induced drought stress was repeatedly reported for certain regions of the boreal forest in northwestern North America, provoked by a significant increase in temperature and possibly reinforced by a regime shift of the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The aim of this study is to better understand physiological growth reactions of white spruce, a dominant species of the North American boreal forest, to PDO regime shifts using quantitative wood anatomy and traditional tree-ring width (TRW) analysis. We investigated white spruce growth at latitudinal treeline across a >1,000 km gradient in northwestern North America. Functionally important xylem anatomical traits (lumen area, cell-wall thickness, cell number) and TRW were correlated with the drought-sensitive standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index of the growing season. Correlations were computed separately for complete phases of the PDO in the 20th century, representing alternating warm/dry (1925-1946), cool/wet (1947-1976) and again warm/dry (1977-1998) climate regimes. Xylem anatomical traits revealed water-limiting conditions in both warm/dry PDO regimes, while no or spatially contrasting associations were found for the cool/wet regime, indicating a moisture-driven shift in growth-limiting factors between PDO periods. TRW reflected only the last shift of 1976/1977, suggesting different climate thresholds and a higher sensitivity to moisture availability of xylem anatomical traits compared to TRW. This high sensitivity of xylem anatomical traits permits to identify first signs of moisture-driven growth in treeline white spruce at an early stage, suggesting quantitative wood anatomy being a powerful tool to study climate change effects in the northwestern North American treeline ecotone. Projected temperature increase might challenge growth performance of white spruce as a key component of the North American boreal forest biome in the future, when drier conditions are likely to occur with higher frequency and intensity.

Transgenerational effects of parental light environment on progeny competitive performance and lifetime fitness

Plant and animal parents may respond to environmental conditions such as resource stress by altering traits of their offspring via heritable non-genetic effects. While such transgenerational plasticity can result in progeny phenotypes that are functionally pre-adapted to the inducing environment, it is unclear whether such parental effects measurably enhance the adult competitive success and lifetime reproductive output of progeny, and whether they may also adversely affect fitness if offspring encounter contrasting conditions. In glasshouse experiments with inbred genotypes of the annual plant Polygonum persicaria, we tested the effects of parental shade versus sun on (a) competitive performance of progeny in shade, and (b) lifetime reproductive fitness of progeny in three contrasting treatments. Shaded parents produced offspring with increased fitness in shade despite competition, as well as greater competitive impact on plant neighbours. Inherited effects of parental light conditions also significantly altered lifetime fitness: parental shade increased reproductive output for progeny in neighbour and understorey shade, but decreased fitness for progeny in sunny, dry conditions. Along with these substantial adaptive and maladaptive transgenerational effects, results show complex interactions between genotypes, parent environment and progeny conditions that underscore the role of environmental variability and change in shaping future adaptive potential. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

The genetics of phenotypic plasticity. XVII. Response to climate change

The world is changing at a rapid rate, threatening extinction for a large part of the world's biota. One potential response to those altered conditions is to evolve so as to be able to persist in place. Such evolution includes not just traits themselves, but also the phenotypic plasticity of those traits. We used individual-based simulations to explore the potential of an evolving phenotypic plasticity to increase the probability of persistence in the response to either a step change or continual, directional change in the environment accompanied by within-generation random environmental fluctuations. Populations could evolve by altering both their nonplastic and plastic genetic components. We found that phenotypic plasticity enhanced survival and adaptation if that plasticity was not costly. If plasticity was costly, for it to be beneficial the phenotypic magnitude of plasticity had to be great enough in the initial generations to overcome those costs. These results were not sensitive to either the magnitude of the within-generation correlation between the environment of development and the environment of selection or the magnitude of the environmental fluctuations, except for very small phenotypic magnitudes of plasticity. So, phenotypic plasticity has the potential to enhance survival; however, more data are needed on the ubiquity of trait plasticity, the extent of costs of plasticity, and the rate of mutational input of genetic variation for plasticity.

Phenotypic plasticity of carbon fixation stimulates cyanobacterial blooms at elevated CO2

Although phenotypic plasticity is a widespread phenomenon, its implications for species responses to climate change are not well understood. For example, toxic cyanobacteria can form dense surface blooms threatening water quality in many eutrophic lakes, yet a theoretical framework to predict how phenotypic plasticity affects bloom development at elevated pCO₂ is still lacking. We measured phenotypic plasticity of the carbon fixation rates of the common bloom-forming cyanobacterium Microcystis. Our results revealed a 1.8- to 5-fold increase in the maximum CO₂ uptake rate of Microcystis at elevated pCO₂, which exceeds CO₂ responses reported for other phytoplankton species. The observed plasticity was incorporated into a mathematical model to predict dynamic changes in cyanobacterial abundance. The model was successfully validated by laboratory experiments and predicts that acclimation to high pCO₂ will intensify Microcystis blooms in eutrophic lakes. These results indicate that this harmful cyanobacterium is likely to benefit strongly from rising atmospheric pCO₂.

Decreased Precipitation Predictability Negatively Affects Population Growth through Differences in Adult Survival

Global climate change is leading to decreased climatic predictability. Theoretical work indicates that changes in the climate's intrinsic predictability will affect population dynamics and extinction, but experimental evidence is scarce. Here, we experimentally tested whether differences in intrinsic precipitation predictability affect population dynamics of the European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) by simulating more predictable (MP) and less predictable (LP) precipitation in 12 seminatural populations over 3 years and measuring different vital rates. A seasonal age-structured matrix model was parametrized to assess treatment effects on vital rates and asymptotic population growth (λ). There was a nonsignificant trend for survival being higher in MP than in LP precipitation, and no differences existed in reproductive rates. Small nonsignificant survival differences in adults explained changes in λ, and survival differences among age classes were in line with predictions from cohort resonance. As a result, λ was significantly higher in MP than in LP precipitation. This experimentally shows that small effects have major consequences on λ, that forecasted decreases in precipitation predictability are likely to exacerbate the current rate of population decline and extinction, and that stage-structured matrix models are required to unravel the aftermath of climate change.