Modelling the distributions and spatial coincidence of bluetongue vectors Culicoides imicola and the Culicoides obsoletus group throughout the Iberian peninsula

Modeling the spatial distribution of Culicoides species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) as vectors of animal diseases in Ethiopia

Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the major vectors of bluetongue, Schmallenberg, and African horse sickness viruses. This study was conducted to survey Culicoides species in different parts of Ethiopia and to develop habitat suitability for the major Culicoides species in Ethiopia. Culicoides traps were set in different parts of the country from December 2018 to April 2021 using UV light Onderstepoort traps and the collected Culicoides were sorted to species level. To develop the species distribution model for the two predominant Culicoides species, namely Culicoides imicola and C. kingi, an ensemble modeling technique was used with the Biomod2 package of R software. KAPPA True skill statistics (TSS) and ROC curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of species distribution models. In the ensemble modeling, models which score TSS values greater than 0.8 were considered. Negative binomialregression models were used to evaluate the relationship between C. imicola and C. kingi catch and various environmental and climatic factors. During the study period, a total of 9148 Culicoides were collected from 66 trapping sites. Of the total 9148, 8576 of them belongs to seven species and the remaining 572 Culicoides were unidentified. The predominant species was C. imicola (52.8%), followed by C. kingi (23.6%). The abundance of these two species was highly influenced by the agro-ecological zone of the capture sites and the proximity of the capture sites to livestock farms. Climatic variables such as mean annual minimum and maximum temperature and mean annual rainfall were found to influence the catch of C. imicola at the different study sites. The ensemble model performed very well for both species with KAPPA (0.9), TSS (0.98), and ROC (0.999) for C. imicola and KAPPA (0.889), TSS (0.999), and ROC (0.999) for C. kingi. Culicoides imicola has a larger suitability range compared to C. kingi. The Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, the southern and eastern parts of the country, and the areas along the Blue Nile and Lake Tana basins in northern Ethiopia were particularly suitable for C. imicola. High suitability for C. kingi was found in central Ethiopia and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR). The habitat suitability model developed here could help researchers better understand where the above vector-borne diseases are likely to occur and target surveillance to high-risk areas.

Spatial distribution and habitat selection of culicoides imicola: The potential vector of bluetongue virus in Tunisia

The increasing threat of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) represents a great challenge to those who manage public and animal health. Determining the spatial distribution of arthropod vector species is an essential step in studying the risk of transmission of a vector-borne pathogen (VBP) and in estimating risk levels of VBD. Risk maps allow better targeting surveillance and help in designing control measures. We aimed to study the geographical distribution of Culicoides imicola, the main competent vector of Bluetongue virus (BTV) in sheep in Tunisia. Fifty-three records covering the whole distribution range of C.imicola in Tunisia were obtained during a 2-year field entomological survey (August 2017 – January 2018 and August 2018 – January 2019). The ecological niche of C. imicola is described using ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) and Mahalanobis distances factor analysis (MADIFA). An environmental suitability map (ESM) was developed by MaxEnt software to map the optimal habitat under the current climate background. The MaxEnt model was highly accurate with a statistically significant area under curve (AUC) value of 0.941. The location of the potential distribution of C. imicola is predicted in specified regions of Tunisia. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as surveillance and control program of BTV in Tunisia.

A study of the composition of the Obsoletus complex and genetic diversity of Culicoides obsoletus populations in Spain

Background

The Culicoides obsoletus species complex (henceforth ‘Obsoletus complex’) is implicated in the transmission of several arboviruses that can cause severe disease in livestock, such as bluetongue, African horse sickness, epizootic hemorrhagic disease and Schmallenberg disease. Thus, this study aimed to increase our knowledge of the composition and genetic diversity of the Obsoletus complex by partial sequencing of the cytochrome c oxidase I (cox1) gene in poorly studied areas of Spain.

Methods

A study of C. obsoletus populations was carried out using a single-tube multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay that was designed to differentiate the Obsoletus complex sibling species Culicoides obsoletus and Culicoides scoticus, based on the partial amplification of the cox1 gene, as well as cox1 georeferenced sequences from Spain available at GenBank. We sampled 117 insects of the Obsoletus complex from six locations and used a total of 238 sequences of C. obsoletus (ss) individuals (sampled here, and from GenBank) from 14 sites in mainland Spain, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands for genetic diversity and phylogenetic analyses.

Results

We identified 90 C. obsoletus (ss), 19 Culicoides scoticus and five Culicoides montanus midges from the six collection sites sampled, and found that the genetic diversity of C. obsoletus (ss) were higher in mainland Spain than in the Canary Islands. The multiplex PCR had limitations in terms of specificity, and no cryptic species within the Obsoletus complex were identified.

Conclusions

Within the Obsoletus complex, C. obsoletus (ss) was the predominant species in the analyzed sites of mainland Spain. Information about the species composition of the Obsoletus complex could be of relevance for future epidemiological studies when specific aspects of the vector competence and capacity of each species have been identified. Our results indicate that the intraspecific divergence is higher in C. obsoletus (ss) northern populations, and demonstrate the isolation of C. obsoletus (ss) populations of the Canary Islands.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-04841-z.

Development and lifespan of Culicoides obsoletus s.s. (Meigen) and other livestock-associated species reared at different temperatures under laboratory conditions

Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) transmit arboviruses affecting wild and domestic ruminants such as bluetongue (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SBV). The sub-adult development and lifespan of Culicoides obsoletus s.s. (Meigen), Culicoides circumscriptus Kieffer and Culicoides paolae Boorman were examined at three different temperatures under laboratory conditions. Insects were collected from field between spring and autumn 2015 in two livestock farms located in Majorca (Spain). Gravid females were held individually at 18, 25 or 30 °C. Low temperatures increased the adult lifespan, time to oviposit and rate of development, whereas high temperatures increased the number of eggs, successful pupation and adult emergence as well as the larvae growth rate. The results showed that C. obsoletus s.s. have optimum development at 18 °C, whereas the optimal rearing temperature for C. circumscriptus and C. paolae was under warmer conditions of 25-30 °C. Variations in temperature/humidity and assays with different materials and substrates for oviposition should be considered in future studies. Understanding the requirements of the different species of Culicoides optimizing the results should be of special interest for predicting environmental change effects on these species, in addition to determining the rearing conditions for candidate Culicoides vectors.

Spatio-temporal modelling of Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) populations on Reunion Island (Indian Ocean)

BACKGROUND

Reunion Island regularly faces outbreaks of bluetongue and epizootic hemorrhagic diseases, two insect-borne orbiviral diseases of ruminants. Hematophagous midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the vectors of bluetongue (BTV) and epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHDV) viruses. In a previous study, statistical models based on environmental and meteorological data were developed for the five Culicoides species present in the island to provide a better understanding of their ecology and predict their presence and abundance. The purpose of this study was to couple these statistical models with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to produce dynamic maps of the distribution of Culicoides throughout the island.

METHODS

Based on meteorological data from ground weather stations and satellite-derived environmental data, the abundance of each of the five Culicoides species was estimated for the 2214 husbandry locations on the island for the period ranging from February 2016 to June 2018. A large-scale Culicoides sampling campaign including 100 farms was carried out in March 2018 to validate the model.

RESULTS

According to the model predictions, no husbandry location was free of Culicoides throughout the study period. The five Culicoides species were present on average in 57.0% of the husbandry locations for C. bolitinos Meiswinkel, 40.7% for C. enderleini Cornet & Brunhes, 26.5% for C. grahamii Austen, 87.1% for C. imicola Kieffer and 91.8% for C. kibatiensis Goetghebuer. The models also showed high seasonal variations in their distribution. During the validation process, predictions were acceptable for C. bolitinos, C. enderleini and C. kibatiensis, with normalized root mean square errors (NRMSE) of 15.4%, 13.6% and 16.5%, respectively. The NRMSE was 27.4% for C. grahamii. For C. imicola, the NRMSE was acceptable (11.9%) considering all husbandry locations except in two specific areas, the Cirque de Salazie-an inner mountainous part of the island-and the sea edge, where the model overestimated its abundance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model provides, for the first time to our knowledge, an operational tool to better understand and predict the distribution of Culicoides in Reunion Island. As it predicts a wide spatial distribution of the five Culicoides species throughout the year and taking into consideration their vector competence, our results suggest that BTV and EHDV can circulate continuously on the island. As further actions, our model could be coupled with an epidemiological model of BTV and EHDV transmission to improve risk assessment of Culicoides-borne diseases on the island.

Monitoring of bluetongue virus in zoo animals in Spain, 2007-2019

Bluetongue (BT) is an emerging and re-emerging communicable vector-borne disease of animal health concern. A serosurvey was performed to assess exposure to BT virus (BTV) in zoo animals in Spain and to determine the dynamics of seropositivity in longitudinally sampled individuals during the study period. Serum samples were collected from 241 zoo animals belonging to 71 different species in five urban zoos (A-E) in Spain between 2007 and 2019. Twenty-four of these animals were longitudinally surveyed at three of the sampled zoos (zoos B, C and E) during the study period. Anti-BTV antibodies were found in 46 (19.1%; 95% CI: 14.1-24.1) of the 241 captive animals analysed by commercial ELISA. A virus neutralization test confirmed specific antibodies against BTV-1 and BTV-4 in 25 (10.7%; 95% CI: 6.7-14.6) and five (3.0%; 95% CI: 0.3-4.0) animals, respectively. Two of the 24 longitudinally sampled individuals (one African elephant (Loxodanta africana) and one aoudad (Ammotragus lervia)) showed anti-BTV antibodies at all samplings, whereas seroconversions were detected in one mouflon (Ovis aries musimon) in 2016, and one Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) in 2019. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first large-scale survey on BTV conducted in both artiodactyl and non-artiodactyl zoo species worldwide. The results confirm BTV exposure in urban zoo parks in Spain, which could be of animal health and conservation concern. Circulation of BTV was detected in yearling animals in years when there were no reports of BTV outbreaks in livestock. Surveillance in artiodactyl and non-artiodactyl zoo species could be a valuable tool for epidemiological monitoring of BTV.

Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks

Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8 has been circulating in Europe since a major outbreak occurred in 2006, causing economic losses to livestock farms. The unpredictability of the biting activity of midges that transmit BTV implies difficulty in computing accurate transmission models. This study uniquely integrates field collections of midges at a range of European latitudes (in Sweden, The Netherlands, and Italy), with a multi-scale modelling approach. We inferred the environmental factors that influence the dynamics of midge catching, and then directly linked predicted midge catches to BTV transmission dynamics. Catch predictions were linked to the observed prevalence amongst sentinel cattle during the 2007 BTV outbreak in The Netherlands using a dynamic transmission model. We were able to directly infer a scaling parameter between daily midge catch predictions and the true biting rate per cow per day. Compared to biting rate per cow per day the scaling parameter was around 50% of 24 h midge catches with traps. Extending the estimated biting rate across Europe, for different seasons and years, indicated that whilst intensity of transmission is expected to vary widely from herd to herd, around 95% of naïve herds in western Europe have been at risk of sustained transmission over the last 15 years.

Environmental Drivers of Adult Seasonality and Abundance of Biting Midges Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), Bluetongue Vector Species in Spain

Bluetongue is a viral disease affecting wild and domestic ruminants transmitted by several species of biting midges Culicoides Latreille. The phenology of these insects were analyzed in relation to potential environmental drivers. Data from 329 sites in Spain were analyzed using Bayesian Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) approaches. The effects of environmental factors on adult female seasonality were contrasted. Obsoletus complex species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) were the most prevalent across sites, followed by Culicoides newsteadi Austen (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Activity of female Obsoletus complex species was longest in sites at low elevation, with warmer spring average temperatures and precipitation, as well as in sites with high abundance of cattle. The length of the Culicoides imicola Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) female adult season was also longest in sites at low elevation with higher coverage of broad-leaved vegetation. Long adult seasons of C. newsteadi were found in sites with warmer autumns and higher precipitation, high abundance of sheep. Culicoides pulicaris (Linnaeus) (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) had longer adult periods in sites with a greater number of accumulated degree days over 10°C during winter. These results demonstrate the eco-climatic and seasonal differences among these four taxa in Spain, which may contribute to determining sites with suitable environmental circumstances for each particular species to inform assessments of the risk of Bluetongue virus outbreaks in this region.

Zoo animals as sentinels for Schmallenberg virus monitoring in Spain

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) is a newly emerged vector-borne pathogen that affects many domestic and wild animal species. A serosurvey was carried out to assess SBV exposure in zoo animals in Spain and to determine the dynamics of seropositivity in longitudinally sampled individuals. Between 2002 and 2019, sera from 278 animals belonging to 73 different species were collected from five zoos (A-E). Thirty-one of these animals were longitudinally sampled at three of these zoo parks during the study period. Seropositivity was detected in 28 (10.1 %) of 278 animals analyzed by blocking ELISA. Specific anti-SBV antibodies were confirmed in 20 (7.2 %; 95 %CI: 4.2-10.3) animals of six different species using virus neutralization test (VNT). The multiple logistic regression model showed that "order" (Artiodactyla) and "zoo provenance" (zoo B; southern Spain) were risk factors potentially associated with SBV exposure. Two (8.7 %) of the 31 longitudinally-sampled individuals showed specific antibodies against SBV at all samplings whereas seroconversion was detected in one mouflon (Ovis aries musimon) and one Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) in 2016 and 2019, respectively. To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first surveillance conducted on SBV in zoos in Spain. The results confirm SBV exposure in zoo animals in this country and indicate circulation of the virus before the first Schmallenberg disease outbreak was reported in Spain. Surveillance in zoological parks could be a complementary approach to monitoring SBV activity. Further studies are warranted to assess the impact of this virus on the health status of susceptible zoo animals.

Epidemiological surveillance of Schmallenberg virus in small ruminants in southern Spain

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) is an emerging Culicoides-borne Orthobunyavirus that affects ruminant species. Between 2011 and 2013, it was responsible for a large-scale epidemic in Europe. In the present study, we aimed to determine the seroprevalence, spatial distribution and risk factors associated with SBV exposure in sheep and goats in the region where the first Schmallenberg disease outbreak in Spain was reported. Blood samples from 1,796 small ruminants from 120 farms were collected in Andalusia (southern Spain) between 2015 and 2017. Antibodies against SBV were detected in 536 of 1,796 animals (29.8%; 95%CI: 27.7-32.0) using a commercial blocking ELISA. The individual seroprevalence according to species was 31.1% (280/900; 95%CI: 28.1-34.1) in sheep and 28.6% (256/896; 95%CI: 25.6-31.5) in goats. The farm prevalence was 76.7% (95%CI: 69.1-84.2). Seropositivity to SBV was confirmed in both sheep and goats in all provinces by virus neutralization test. Two significant (p < .001) spatial clusters of high seroprevalence were identified. The generalized estimating equation analysis showed that management system (extensive), temperature (>14ºC) and altitude (<400 metres above sea level) were risk factors associated with SBV exposure in small ruminants. Our results highlight widespread but not homogeneous circulation of SBV in small ruminant populations in Spain.

Identifying Spanish Areas at More Risk of Monthly BTV Transmission with a Basic Reproduction Number Approach

Bluetongue virus (BTV) causes a disease that is endemic in Spain and its two major biological vector species, C. imicola and the Obsoletus complex species, differ greatly in their ecology and distribution. Understanding the seasonality of BTV transmission in risk areas is key to improving surveillance and control programs, as well as to better understand the pathogen transmission networks between wildlife and livestock. Here, monthly risk transmission maps were generated using risk categories based on well-known BTV R0 equations and predicted abundances of the two most relevant vectors in Spain. Previously, Culicoides spp. predicted abundances in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands were obtained using remote sensing data and random forest machine learning algorithm. Risk transmission maps were externally assessed with the estimated date of infection of BTV-1 and BTV-4 historical outbreaks. Our results highlight the differences in risk transmission during April-October, June-August being the period with higher R0 values. Likewise, a natural barrier has been identified between northern and central-southern areas at risk that may hamper BTV spread between them. Our results can be relevant to implement risk-based interventions for the prevention, control and surveillance of BTV and other diseases shared between livestock and wildlife host populations.

Serosurveillance of Schmallenberg virus in wild ruminants in Spain

Schmallenberg disease (SBD) is an emerging vector-borne disease that affects domestic and wild ruminants. A long-term serosurvey was conducted to assess exposure to Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in all the wild ruminant species present in mainland Spain. Between 2010 and 2016, sera from 1,216 animals were tested for antibodies against SBV using a commercial blocking ELISA. The overall prevalence of antibodies was 27.1% (95%CI: 24.7-29.7). Statistically significant differences among species were observed, with significantly higher seropositivity found in fallow deer (Dama dama) (45.6%; 99/217), red deer (Cervus elaphus) (31.6%; 97/307) and mouflon (Ovis aries musimon) (28.0%; 33/118) compared to Barbary sheep (Ammotragus lervia) (22.2%; 8/36), Iberian wild goat (Capra pyrenaica) (19.9%; 49/246), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) (17.5%; 34/194) and Southern chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica) (10.2%; 10/98). Seropositive animals were detected in 81.4% (57/70; 95%CI: 70.8-88.8) of the sampled populations. SBV seroprevalence ranged from 18.8% (48/256) in bioregion (BR)2 (north-central, Mediterranean) to 32.3% (31/96) in BR1 (northeastern or Atlantic, Eurosiberian). Anti-SBV antibodies were not found before 2012, when the first outbreak of SBD was reported in Spain. In contrast, seropositivity was detected uninterruptedly during the period 2012-2016 and anti-SBV antibodies were found in yearling animals in each of these years. Our results provide evidence of widespread endemic circulation of SBV among wild ruminant populations in mainland Spain in recent years. Surveillance in these species could be a useful tool for monitoring SBV in Europe, particularly in areas where wild ruminants share habitats with livestock.

A model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus of ruminants that has been circulating in Europe continuously for more than two decades and has become endemic in some countries such as Spain. Spain is ideal for BTV epidemiological studies since BTV outbreaks from different sources and serotypes have occurred continuously there since 2000; BTV-1 has been reported there from 2007 to 2017. Here we develop a model for BTV-1 endemic scenario to estimate the risk of an area becoming endemic, as well as to identify the most influential factors for BTV-1 persistence. We created abundance maps at 1-km2 spatial resolution for the main vectors in Spain, Culicoides imicola and Obsoletus and Pulicaris complexes, by combining environmental satellite data with occurrence models and a random forest machine learning algorithm. The endemic model included vector abundance and host-related variables (farm density). The three most relevant variables in the endemic model were the abundance of C. imicola and Obsoletus complex and density of goat farms (AUC 0.86); this model suggests that BTV-1 is more likely to become endemic in central and southwestern regions of Spain. It only requires host- and vector-related variables to identify areas at greater risk of becoming endemic for bluetongue. Our results highlight the importance of suitable Culicoides spp. prediction maps for bluetongue epidemiological studies and decision-making about control and eradication measures.

Modelling the monthly abundance of Culicoides biting midges in nine European countries using Random Forests machine learning

BACKGROUND

Culicoides biting midges transmit viruses resulting in disease in ruminants and equids such as bluetongue, Schmallenberg disease and African horse sickness. In the past decades, these diseases have led to important economic losses for farmers in Europe. Vector abundance is a key factor in determining the risk of vector-borne disease spread and it is, therefore, important to predict the abundance of Culicoides species involved in the transmission of these pathogens. The objectives of this study were to model and map the monthly abundances of Culicoides in Europe.

METHODS

We obtained entomological data from 904 farms in nine European countries (Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway) from 2007 to 2013. Using environmental and climatic predictors from satellite imagery and the machine learning technique Random Forests, we predicted the monthly average abundance at a 1 km2 resolution. We used independent test sets for validation and to assess model performance.

RESULTS

The predictive power of the resulting models varied according to month and the Culicoides species/ensembles predicted. Model performance was lower for winter months. Performance was higher for the Obsoletus ensemble, followed by the Pulicaris ensemble, while the model for Culicoides imicola showed a poor performance. Distribution and abundance patterns corresponded well with the known distributions in Europe. The Random Forests model approach was able to distinguish differences in abundance between countries but was not able to predict vector abundance at individual farm level.

CONCLUSIONS

The models and maps presented here represent an initial attempt to capture large scale geographical and temporal variations in Culicoides abundance. The models are a first step towards producing abundance inputs for R0 modelling of Culicoides-borne infections at a continental scale.

A Mondrian matrix of seasonal patterns of Culicoides nulliparous and parous females at different latitudes in Spain

Insects from genus Culicoides (Diptera; Ceratopogonidae) transmit arboviruses such as Bluetongue virus (BTV); affecting wild and domestic ruminants. These insects are age graded for monitoring purposes in surveillance programs. Parous females (PF) are the only fraction of the entire population that could effectively transmit viruses in a subsequent blood meal. Data of the Spanish Entomosurveillance National Program from 2008 to 2010 were used to analyse the seasonal pattern of the nulliparous females (NF) and PF of the vector species Obsoletus complex, C. imicola, C. newsteadi and C. pulicaris. Latitude variation on the seasonal abundance patterns of PF was also analysed in trap sites spanning a North-South axis in mainland Spain. The weekly abundance of PF was always highest in summer. The peak of abundance mainly occurred between April and July except for C. imicola that was from September to November. The analysis of the latitudinal seasonal variation of PF in Spain showed that Northern provinces have absence of C. imicola while the Obsoletus species were more present in Northern areas. There were periods of the year were no individuals of any vector species were collected, which should be considered in order to calculate the Seasonally Vector-Free Period (SVFP). Culicoides newsteadi and C. pulicaris exhibited the highest population in Toledo, probably related to their inland preferences. These findings would be of interest for a better understanding of the periods of low and high risk of transmission of BTV in Spain.

Modelling temporal dynamics of Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) populations on Reunion Island (Indian Ocean), vectors of viruses of veterinary importance

BACKGROUND

Reunion Island regularly faces outbreaks of epizootic haemorrhagic disease (EHD) and bluetongue (BT), two viral diseases transmitted by haematophagous midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) to ruminants. To date, five species of Culicoides are recorded in Reunion Island in which the first two are proven vector species: Culicoides bolitinos, C. imicola, C. enderleini, C. grahamii and C. kibatiensis. Meteorological and environmental factors can severely constrain Culicoides populations and activities and thereby affect dispersion and intensity of transmission of Culicoides-borne viruses. The aim of this study was to describe and predict the temporal dynamics of all Culicoides species present in Reunion Island.

METHODS

Between 2016 and 2018, 55 biweekly Culicoides catches using Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute traps were set up in 11 sites. A hurdle model (i.e. a presence/absence model combined with an abundance model) was developed for each species in order to determine meteorological and environmental drivers of presence and abundance of Culicoides.

RESULTS

Abundance displayed very strong heterogeneity between sites. Average Culicoides catch per site per night ranged from 4 to 45,875 individuals. Culicoides imicola was dominant at low altitude and C. kibatiensis at high altitude. A marked seasonality was observed for the three other species with annual variations. Twelve groups of variables were tested. It was found that presence and/or abundance of all five Culicoides species were driven by common parameters: rain, temperature, vegetation index, forested environment and host density. Other parameters such as wind speed and farm building opening size governed abundance level of some species. In addition, Culicoides populations were also affected by meteorological parameters and/or vegetation index with different lags of time, suggesting an impact on immature stages. Taking into account all the parameters for the final hurdle model, the error rate by Normalized Root mean Square Error ranged from 4.4 to 8.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study to model Culicoides population dynamics in Reunion Island. In the absence of vaccination and vector control strategies, determining periods of high abundance of Culicoides is a crucial first step towards identifying periods at high risk of transmission for the two economically important viruses they transmit.

Modeling the global distribution of Culicoides imicola: an Ensemble approach

Culicoides imicola is a midge species serving as vector for a number of viral diseases of livestock, including Bluetongue, and African Horse Sickness. C. imicola is also known to transmit Schmallenberg virus experimentally. Environmental and demographic factors may impose rapid changes on the global distribution of C. imicola and aid introduction into new areas. The aim of this study is to predict the global distribution of C. imicola using an ensemble modeling approach by combining climatic, livestock distribution and land cover covariates, together with a comprehensive global dataset of geo-positioned occurrence points for C. imicola. Thirty individual models were generated by ‘biomod2’, with 21 models scoring a true skill statistic (TSS) >0.8. These 21 models incorporated weighted runs from eight of ten algorithms and were used to create a final ensemble model. The ensemble model performed very well (TSS = 0.898 and ROC = 0.991) and indicated high environmental suitability for C. imicola in the tropics and subtropics. The habitat suitability for C. imicola spans from South Africa to southern Europe and from southern USA to southern China. The distribution of C. imicola is mainly constrained by climatic factors. In the ensemble model, mean annual minimum temperature had the highest overall contribution (42.9%), followed by mean annual maximum temperature (21.1%), solar radiation (13.6%), annual precipitation (11%), livestock distribution (6.2%), vapor pressure (3.4%), wind speed (0.8%), and land cover (0.1%). The present study provides the most up-to-date predictive maps of the potential distributions of C. imicola and should be of great value for decision making at global and regional scales.

Habitat associations of Culicoides species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) abundant on a commercial cervid farm in Florida, USA

BACKGROUND

Biting midges in the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) transmit bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) to ruminants, thus exerting a significant economic impact on animal agriculture worldwide. However, very little is known about the larval habitat characteristics of Culicoides species associated with BTV/EHDV transmission, particularly in southeastern USA, limiting the establishment of effective midge control strategies. In this study, we examined the habitat associations of Culicoides species abundant on a commercial cervid farm in Florida, USA and quantified several environmental variables of their habitat to identify the key variables associated with midge abundance.

METHODS

Mud/substrate samples from three potential larval habitats on the farm (edges of streams, puddles and seepages) were brought to the laboratory and incubated for adult emergence, and the percentage organic matter, macronutrients, micronutrients, pH, electrical conductivity, moisture and microbial concentrations of the substrate were quantified.

RESULTS

Strong habitat associations were observed for Culicoides haematopotus (Malloch) (stream edge), Culicoides stellifer (Coquillett) (puddles) and Culicoides loisae (Jamnback) (stream edge), the most commonly emerging midge species from the samples. Suspected vector species of BTV/EHDV on the property, C. stellifer and Culicoides venustus (Hoffman), emerged mainly from habitats with moderate-high levels of pollution (edges of puddles and seepages) as indicated by the relatively higher concentrations/levels of organic matter, nutrients and other environmental variables in these samples. The emergence of C. insignis was too low to form any meaningful conclusions. For each Culicoides species, only weak positive or negative associations were detected between midge abundance and the various environmental variables quantified.

CONCLUSIONS

Habitat associations of Culicoides species abundant on a local cervid/animal farm vary, most likely as a function of certain biotic/abiotic characteristics of the habitat. Further studies across a larger spatial and temporal scale will be needed to experimentally evaluate/identify the key factors more strongly associated with the abundance of target Culicoides species. This information, in the long term, can be potentially exploited to render local habitats unsuitable for midge oviposition/larval development.

Evaluating the Addition of CO2 to Black Light Traps for Sampling Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Alberta

We examined the effect of augmenting black light trap with CO2 at two release rates for monitoring and surveillance of Culicoides at northern latitudes. Species composition was highly correlated among black light (BL) traps with no CO2 (BL0 traps) and traps augmented with 300 and 1000 ml/min CO2 (BL300 and BL1000 traps, respectively); however, traps augmented with CO2 captured one to three more rare species than BL0 traps and can detect rare species that might be missed if BL0 traps were used. Addition of CO2 increased the number of individuals captured from 1.4 to 38.5-fold for BL300 traps and from 1.5 to 153.5-fold for BL1000 traps. This advantage may be lost in areas with low abundance as might be expected at the limits of species. The daily probability of detecting a species was greater for traps augmented with CO2, but this can be compensated for by operating BL0 traps for sufficient time. The association between numbers captured by BL0 and BL300 and BL1000 traps also suggests that BL0 traps may provide useful measures of relative abundance for Culicoides sonorensis, Culicoides davisi, and Culicoides riethi, again providing the BL0 traps are left to operate for some period. Measurements of diel activity were influenced by trap type only for a single species and were primarily determined by solar radiation, temperature, and windspeed. Overall, the use of BL0 only traps for widescale surveys is supported, especially given their convenience.

Monthly variation in the probability of presence of adult Culicoides populations in nine European countries and the implications for targeted surveillance

BACKGROUND

Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are small hematophagous insects responsible for the transmission of bluetongue virus, Schmallenberg virus and African horse sickness virus to wild and domestic ruminants and equids. Outbreaks of these viruses have caused economic damage within the European Union. The spatio-temporal distribution of biting midges is a key factor in identifying areas with the potential for disease spread. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas of neglectable adult activity for each month in an average year. Average monthly risk maps can be used as a tool when allocating resources for surveillance and control programs within Europe.

METHODS

We modelled the occurrence of C. imicola and the Obsoletus and Pulicaris ensembles using existing entomological surveillance data from Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Poland. The monthly probability of each vector species and ensembles being present in Europe based on climatic and environmental input variables was estimated with the machine learning technique Random Forest. Subsequently, the monthly probability was classified into three classes: Absence, Presence and Uncertain status. These three classes are useful for mapping areas of no risk, areas of high-risk targeted for animal movement restrictions, and areas with an uncertain status that need active entomological surveillance to determine whether or not vectors are present.

RESULTS

The distribution of Culicoides species ensembles were in agreement with their previously reported distribution in Europe. The Random Forest models were very accurate in predicting the probability of presence for C. imicola (mean AUC = 0.95), less accurate for the Obsoletus ensemble (mean AUC = 0.84), while the lowest accuracy was found for the Pulicaris ensemble (mean AUC = 0.71). The most important environmental variables in the models were related to temperature and precipitation for all three groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The duration periods with low or null adult activity can be derived from the associated monthly distribution maps, and it was also possible to identify and map areas with uncertain predictions. In the absence of ongoing vector surveillance, these maps can be used by veterinary authorities to classify areas as likely vector-free or as likely risk areas from southern Spain to northern Sweden with acceptable precision. The maps can also focus costly entomological surveillance to seasons and areas where the predictions and vector-free status remain uncertain.

Spatial distribution modelling of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midges, potential vectors of African horse sickness and bluetongue viruses in Senegal

Background

In Senegal, the last epidemic of African horse sickness (AHS) occurred in 2007. The western part of the country (the Niayes area) concentrates modern farms with exotic horses of high value and was highly affected during the 2007 outbreak that has started in the area. Several studies were initiated in the Niayes area in order to better characterize Culicoides diversity, ecology and the impact of environmental and climatic data on dynamics of proven and suspected vectors. The aims of this study are to better understand the spatial distribution and diversity of Culicoides in Senegal and to map their abundance throughout the country.

Methods

Culicoides data were obtained through a nationwide trapping campaign organized in 2012. Two successive collection nights were carried out in 96 sites in 12 (of 14) regions of Senegal at the end of the rainy season (between September and October) using OVI (Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute) light traps. Three different modeling approaches were compared: the first consists in a spatial interpolation by ordinary kriging of Culicoides abundance data. The two others consist in analyzing the relation between Culicoides abundance and environmental and climatic data to model abundance and investigate the environmental suitability; and were carried out by implementing generalized linear models and random forest models.

Results

A total of 1,373,929 specimens of the genus Culicoides belonging to at least 32 different species were collected in 96 sites during the survey. According to the RF (random forest) models which provided better estimates of abundances than Generalized Linear Models (GLM) models, environmental and climatic variables that influence species abundance were identified. Culicoides imicola, C. enderleini and C. miombo were mostly driven by average rainfall and minimum and maximum normalized difference vegetation index. Abundance of C. oxystoma was mostly determined by average rainfall and day temperature. Culicoides bolitinos had a particular trend; the environmental and climatic variables above had a lesser impact on its abundance. RF model prediction maps for the first four species showed high abundance in southern Senegal and in the groundnut basin area, whereas C. bolitinos was present in southern Senegal, but in much lower abundance.

Conclusions

Environmental and climatic variables of importance that influence the spatial distribution of species abundance were identified. It is now crucial to evaluate the vector competence of major species and then combine the vector densities with densities of horses to quantify the risk of transmission of AHS virus across the country.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2920-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Retrospective analysis of Bluetongue farm risk profile definition, based on biology, farm management practices and climatic data

Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by species of Culicoides midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Many studies have contributed to clarifying various aspects of its aetiology, epidemiology and vector dynamic; however, BT remains a disease of epidemiological and economic importance that affects ruminants worldwide. Since 2000, the Sardinia region has been the most affected area of the Mediterranean basin. The region is characterised by wide pastoral areas for sheep and represents the most likely candidate region for the study of Bluetongue virus (BTV) distribution and prevalence in Italy. Furthermore, specific information on the farm level and epidemiological studies needs to be provided to increase the knowledge on the disease's spread and to provide valid mitigation strategies in Sardinia. This study conducted a punctual investigation into the spatial patterns of BTV transmission to define a risk profile for all Sardinian farmsby using a logistic multilevel mixed model that take into account agro-meteorological aspects, as well as farm characteristics and management. Data about animal density (i.e. sheep, goats and cattle), vaccination, previous outbreaks, altitude, land use, rainfall, evapotranspiration, water surface, and farm management practices (i.e. use of repellents, treatment against insect vectors, storage of animals in shelter overnight, cleaning, presence of mud and manure) were collected for 12,277 farms for the years 2011-2015. The logistic multilevel mixed model showed the fundamental role of climatic factors in disease development and the protective role of good management, vaccination, outbreak in the previous year and altitude. Regional BTV risk maps were developed, based on the predictor values of logistic model results, and updated every 10 days. These maps were used to identify, 20 days in advance, the areas at highest risk. The risk farm profile, as defined by the model, would provide specific information about the role of each factor for all Sardinian institutions involved in devising BT prevention and control strategies.

An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain

This work develops a methodology for estimating risk of wind-borne introduction of flying insects into a country, identifying areas and periods of high risk of vector-borne diseases incursion. This risk can be characterized by the role of suitable temperatures and wind currents in small insects' survival and movements, respectively. The model predicts the number density of introduced insects over space and time based on three processes: the advection due to wind currents, the deposition on the ground and the survival due to climatic conditions. Spanish livestock has suffered many bluetongue outbreaks since 2004 and numerous experts point to Culicoides transported by wind from affected areas in North Africa as a possible cause. This work implements numerical experiments simulating the introduction of Culicoides in 2004. The model identified southern and eastern Spain, particularly between June and November, as being at greatest risk of wind-borne Culicoides introduction, which matches field data on bluetongue outbreaks in Spain this year. This validation suggests that this model may be useful for predicting introduction of airborne pathogens of significance to animal productivity.

Environmental heterogeneity and variations in the velocity of bluetongue virus spread in six European epidemics

Several epidemics caused by different bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes occurred in European ruminants since the early 2000. Studies on the spatial distribution of these vector-borne infections and the main vector species highlighted contrasted eco-climatic regions characterized by different dominant vector species. However, little work was done regarding the factors associated with the velocity of these epidemics. In this study, we aimed to quantify and compare the velocity of BTV epidemic that have affected different European countries under contrasted eco-climatic conditions and to relate these estimates to spatial factors such as temperature and host density. We used the thin plate spline regression interpolation method in combination with trend surface analysis to quantify the local velocity of different epidemics that have affected France (BTV-8 2007-2008, BTV-1 2008-2009), Italy (BTV-1 2014), Andalusia in Spain (BTV-1 2007) and the Balkans (BTV-4 2014). We found significant differences in the local velocity of BTV spread according to the country and epidemics, ranging from 7.9km/week (BTV-1 2014 Italy) to 24.4km/week (BTV-1 2008 France). We quantify and discuss the effect of temperature and local host density on this velocity.

Geographical distribution of Culicoides (DIPTERA: CERATOPOGONIDAE) in mainland Portugal: Presence/absence modelling of vector and potential vector species

Vector-borne diseases are not only accounted responsible for their burden on human health-care systems, but also known to cause economic constraints to livestock and animal production. Animals are affected directly by the transmitted pathogens and indirectly when animal movement is restricted. Distribution of such diseases depends on climatic and social factors, namely, environmental changes, globalization, trade and unplanned urbanization. Culicoides biting midges are responsible for the transmission of several pathogenic agents with relevant economic impact. Due to a fragmentary knowledge of their ecology, occurrence is difficult to predict consequently, limiting the control of these arthropod vectors. In order to understand the distribution of Culicoides species, in mainland Portugal, data collected during the National Entomologic Surveillance Program for Bluetongue disease (2005-2013), were used for statistical evaluation. Logistic regression analysis was preformed and prediction maps (per season) were obtained for vector and potentially vector species. The variables used at the present study were selected from WorldClim (two climatic variables) and CORINE databases (twenty-two land cover variables). This work points to an opposite distribution of C. imicola and species from the Obsoletus group within mainland Portugal. Such findings are evidenced in autumn, with the former appearing in Central and Southern regions. Although appearing northwards, on summer and autumn, C. newsteadi reveals a similar distribution to C. imicola. The species C. punctatus appears in all Portuguese territory throughout the year. Contrary, C. pulicaris is poorly caught in all areas of mainland Portugal, being paradoxical present near coastal areas and higher altitude regions.

Culicoides Species Communities Associated with Wild Ruminant Ecosystems in Spain: Tracking the Way to Determine Potential Bridge Vectors for Arboviruses

The genus Culicoides Latreille 1809 is a well-known vector for protozoa, filarial worms and, above all, numerous viruses. The Bluetongue virus (BTV) and the recently emerged Schmallenberg virus (SBV) are responsible for important infectious, non-contagious, insect-borne viral diseases found in domestic ruminants and transmitted by Culicoides spp. Both of these diseases have been detected in wild ruminants, but their role as reservoirs during the vector-free season still remains relatively unknown. In fact, we tend to ignore the possibility of wild ruminants acting as a source of disease (BTV, SBV) and permitting its reintroduction to domestic ruminants during the following vector season. In this context, a knowledge of the composition of the Culicoides species communities that inhabit areas where there are wild ruminants is of major importance as the presence of a vector species is a prerequisite for disease transmission. In this study, samplings were conducted in areas inhabited by different wild ruminant species; samples were taken in both 2009 and 2010, on a monthly basis, during the peak season for midge activity (in summer and autumn). A total of 102,693 specimens of 40 different species of the genus Culicoides were trapped; these included major BTV and SBV vector species. The most abundant vector species were C. imicola and species of the Obsoletus group, which represented 15% and 11% of total numbers of specimens, respectively. At the local scale, the presence of major BTV and SBV vector species in areas with wild ruminants coincided with that of the nearest sentinel farms included in the Spanish Bluetongue Entomological Surveillance Programme, although their relative abundance varied. The data suggest that such species do not exhibit strong host specificity towards either domestic or wild ruminants and that they could consequently play a prominent role as bridge vectors for different pathogens between both types of ruminants. This finding would support the hypothesis that wild ruminants could act as reservoirs for such pathogens, and subsequently be involved in the reintroduction of disease to livestock on neighbouring farms.

Modelling the Abundances of Two Major Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) Species in the Niayes Area of Senegal

In Senegal, considerable mortality in the equine population and hence major economic losses were caused by the African horse sickness (AHS) epizootic in 2007. Culicoides oxystoma and Culicoides imicola, known or suspected of being vectors of bluetongue and AHS viruses are two predominant species in the vicinity of horses and are present all year-round in Niayes area, Senegal. The aim of this study was to better understand the environmental and climatic drivers of the dynamics of these two species. Culicoides collections were obtained using OVI (Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute) light traps at each of the 5 sites for three nights of consecutive collection per month over one year. Cross Correlation Map analysis was performed to determine the time-lags for which environmental variables and abundance data were the most correlated. C. oxystoma and C. imicola count data were highly variable and overdispersed. Despite modelling large Culicoides counts (over 220,000 Culicoides captured in 354 night-traps), using on-site climate measures, overdispersion persisted in Poisson, negative binomial, Poisson regression mixed-effect with random effect at the site of capture models. The only model able to take into account overdispersion was the Poisson regression mixed-effect model with nested random effects at the site and date of capture levels. According to this model, meteorological variables that contribute to explaining the dynamics of C. oxystoma and C. imicola abundances were: mean temperature and relative humidity of the capture day, mean humidity between 21 and 19 days prior a capture event, density of ruminants, percentage cover of water bodies within a 2 km radius and interaction between temperature and humidity for C. oxystoma; mean rainfall and NDVI of the capture day and percentage cover of water bodies for C. imicola. Other variables such as soil moisture, wind speed, degree days, land cover or landscape metrics could be tested to improve the models. Further work should also assess whether other trapping methods such as host-baited traps help reduce overdispersion.

Modelling the spatial distribution of the nuisance mosquito species Anopheles plumbeus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands

Background

Landscape modifications, urbanization or changes of use of rural-agricultural areas can create more favourable conditions for certain mosquito species and therefore indirectly cause nuisance problems for humans. This could potentially result in mosquito-borne disease outbreaks when the nuisance is caused by mosquito species that can transmit pathogens. Anopheles plumbeus is a nuisance mosquito species and a potential malaria vector. It is one of the most frequently observed species in the Netherlands. Information on the distribution of this species is essential for risk assessments. The purpose of the study was to investigate the potential spatial distribution of An. plumbeus in the Netherlands.

Methods

Random forest models were used to link the occurrence and the abundance of An. plumbeus with environmental features and to produce distribution maps in the Netherlands. Mosquito data were collected using a cross-sectional study design in the Netherlands, from April to October 2010–2013. The environmental data were obtained from satellite imagery and weather stations. Statistical measures (accuracy for the occurrence model and mean squared error for the abundance model) were used to evaluate the models performance. The models were externally validated.

Results

The maps show that forested areas (centre of the Netherlands) and the east of the country were predicted as suitable for An. plumbeus. In particular high suitability and high abundance was predicted in the south-eastern provinces Limburg and North Brabant. Elevation, precipitation, day and night temperature and vegetation indices were important predictors for calculating the probability of occurrence for An. plumbeus. The probability of occurrence, vegetation indices and precipitation were important for predicting its abundance. The AUC value was 0.73 and the error in the validation was 0.29; the mean squared error value was 0.12.

Conclusions

The areas identified by the model as suitable and with high abundance of An. plumbeus, are consistent with the areas from which nuisance was reported. Our results can be helpful in the assessment of vector-borne disease risk.

Spatial and temporal distribution of Culicoides species in mainland Portugal (2005-2010). Results of the Portuguese Entomological Surveillance Programme

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is transmitted by Culicoides biting midges and causes an infectious, non-contagious disease of ruminants. It has been rapidly emerging in southern Europe since 1998. In mainland Portugal, strains of BTV belonging to three serotypes have been detected: BTV-10 (1956-1960), BTV-4 (2004-2006 and 2013) and BTV-1 (2007-2012). This paper describes the design, implementation and results of the Entomological Surveillance Programme covering mainland Portugal, between 2005 and 2010, including 5,650 caches. Culicoides imicola Kieffer was mostly found in central and southern regions of Portugal, although it was sporadically detected in northern latitudes. Its peak activity occurred in the autumn and it was active during the winter months in limited areas of the country. Obsoletus group was present at the highest densities in the north although they were found throughout the country in substantial numbers. Culicoides activity occurred all year round but peaked in the spring. A generalized linear mixed model was developed for the analysis of the environmental factors associated with activity of the species of Culicoides suspected vectors of BTV in the country. For C. imicola Kieffer, the most important variables were month, diurnal temperature range (DTR), the number of frost days (FRS) and median monthly temperature (TMP). For the Obsoletus group, the most important factors were month, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and linear and quadratic terms for median monthly temperature (TMP). The results reported can improve our understanding of climatic factors in Culicoides activity influencing their distribution and seasonal pattern.

Blood meal analysis of culicoides (Diptera: ceratopogonidae) in central Tunisia

To evaluate the host preferences of Culicoides species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Central Tunisia, we identified the source of blood meals of field collected specimens by sequencing of the cytochrome b (cyt b) mitochondrial locus and Prepronociceptine single copy nuclear gene. The study includes the most common and abundant livestock associated species of biting midges in Tunisia: C. imicola, C. jumineri, C. newsteadi, C. paolae, C. cataneii, C. circumscriptus, C. kingi, C. pseudojumineri, C. submaritimus, C. langeroni, C. jumineri var and some unidentified C. species. Analysis of cyt b PCR products from 182 field collected blood-engorged females' midges revealed that 92% of them fed solely on mammalian species, 1.6% on birds, 2.4% on insects and 0.8% on reptiles. The blast results identified the blood origin of biting midges to the species level with exact or nearly exact matches (≥98%). The results confirm the presence of several Culicoides species, including proven vectors in Central Tunisia. Blood meal analyses show that these species will indeed feed on bigger mammals, thereby highlighting the risk that these viruses will be able to spread in Tunisia.

First overview of the Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) livestock associated species of Reunion Island, Indian Ocean

This study establishes the first faunistic inventory of livestock associated Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) species of Reunion Island (Indian Ocean), where bluetongue and epizootic hemorrhagic disease are regularly recorded. Single night-catches were performed at 41 sites using light suction traps at altitudes ranging from 0 to 1525 m, from March to April 2005. Five species were recorded: Culicoides imicola, Culicoides bolitinos, Culicoides enderleini, Culicoides grahamii, and Culicoides kibatiensis, among which at least the first three species are known to be involved in virus transmission to ruminants and equids. This is the first record of C. bolitinos, C. kibatiensis, and C. enderleini on the island. C. imicola was the most abundant species along the sea coast. C. bolitinos was more abundant inland and on two sites on the east coast. C. kibatiensis and C. grahamii were less abundant than the other three species and limited to two foci. Spatial distribution analysis of the different species showed that C. bolitinos, C. enderleini and C. imicola were collected at low altitudes, while the other two species were found at higher altitude. A morphological identification key for adult females and males is given, as well as cytochrome oxydase subunit I sequences. Phylogenetic reconstructions showed a clear divergence between C. bolitinos from Reunion Island and mainland Africa. This monograph will help to identify the Culicoides species in the poorly known entomological fauna of the south-western Indian Ocean region.

Identification of Suitable Areas for African Horse Sickness Virus Infections in Spanish Equine Populations

African horse sickness (AHS) is one of the most important vector-borne viral infectious diseases of equines, transmitted mainly by Culicoides spp. The re-emergence of Culicoides-borne diseases in Europe, such as the recent bluetongue (BT) or Schmallenberg outbreaks, has raised concern about the potential re-introduction and further spread of AHS virus (AHSV) in Europe. Spain has one of the largest European equine populations. In addition, its geographical, environmental and entomological conditions favour AHSV infections, as shown by the historical outbreaks in the 1990s. The establishment of risk-based surveillance strategies would allow the early detection and rapid control of any potential AHSV outbreak. This study aimed to identify the areas and time periods that are suitable or at high risk for AHS occurrence in Spain using a GIS-based multicriteria decision framework. Specifically risk maps for AHS occurrence were produced using a weighted linear combination of the main risk factors of disease, namely extrinsic incubation period, equine density and distribution of competent Culicoides populations. Model results revealed that the south-western and north-central areas of Spain and the Balearic Islands are the areas at the highest risk for AHSV infections, particularly in late summer months. Conversely, Galicia, Castile and Leon and La Rioja can be considered as low-risk regions. This result was validated with historical AHS and BT outbreaks in Spain, and with the Culicoides vector distribution area. The model results, together with current Spanish equine production features, should provide the foundations to design risk-based and more cost-effective surveillance strategies for the early detection and rapid control potential of AHS outbreaks in Spain.

Global warming will reshuffle the areas of high prevalence and richness of three genera of avian blood parasites

The importance of parasitism for host populations depends on local parasite richness and prevalence: usually host individuals face higher infection risk in areas where parasites are most diverse, and host dispersal to or from these areas may have fitness consequences. Knowing how parasites are and will be distributed in space and time (in a context of global change) is thus crucial from both an ecological and a biological conservation perspective. Nevertheless, most research articles focus just on elaborating models of parasite distribution instead of parasite diversity. We produced distribution models of the areas where haemosporidian parasites are currently highly diverse (both at community and at within-host levels) and prevalent among Iberian populations of a model passerine host: the blackcap Sylvia atricapilla; and how these areas are expected to vary according to three scenarios of climate change. On the basis of these models, we analysed whether variation among populations in parasite richness or prevalence are expected to remain the same or change in the future, thereby reshuffling the geographic mosaic of host-parasite interactions as we observe it today. Our models predict a rearrangement of areas of high prevalence and richness of parasites in the future, with Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites (today the most diverse genera in blackcaps) losing areas of high diversity and Plasmodium parasites (the most virulent ones) gaining them. Likewise, the prevalence of multiple infections and parasite infracommunity richness would be reduced. Importantly, differences among populations in the prevalence and richness of parasites are expected to decrease in the future, creating a more homogeneous parasitic landscape. This predicts an altered geographic mosaic of host-parasite relationships, which will modify the interaction arena in which parasite virulence evolves.

Distribution of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Alberta, Canada

The distribution of Culicoides sonorensis Wirth and Jones was examined in Alberta, Canada. Sampling was conducted weekly using blacklight traps at eight locations in 2009, and 10 locations during 2010-2012. Nine supplemental sites were sampled twice annually during both 2011 and 2012. Abundance of C. sonorensis was consistently greatest at a site near the U.S. border, and declined in a northerly direction. Mean annual abundance at this site ranged from 6.4- to > 1,000-fold greater across positive sites. Data from a less extensive survey conducted during 2002-2006 were included in the remaining analyses. C. sonorensis was distributed below a diagonal spanning 49 degrees 30' N, 113 degrees 0' W to 51 degrees 21' N, 110 degrees 40' W. The relationship between the proportion of weekly samples positive and mean annual abundance at a site was determined and indicated that the proportion of positive samples could be used as a surrogate measure of abundance to overcome issues associated with the extreme variation in abundance. A series of logistic regression models were developed and evaluated to determine the effects of spatial (latitude and longitude), climatic (historic temperature and precipitation during the warmest quarter), and weather (temperature during the sample interval and spring precipitation) on abundance as measured by the proportion of positive samples. Spatial and climatic variables set the overall level of abundance, while weather variables added seasonal fluctuations within years, and also fluctuations between years. These data will be useful for long-term monitoring of C. sonorensis and as a baseline for detecting shifts in abundance that might occur because of climate change.

Did vaccination slow the spread of bluetongue in France?

Vaccination is one of the most efficient ways to control the spread of infectious diseases. Simulations are now widely used to assess how vaccination can limit disease spread as well as mitigate morbidity or mortality in susceptible populations. However, field studies investigating how much vaccines decrease the velocity of epizootic wave-fronts during outbreaks are rare. This study aimed at investigating the effect of vaccination on the propagation of bluetongue, a vector-borne disease of ruminants. We used data from the 2008 bluetongue virus serotype 1 (BTV-1) epizootic of southwest France. As the virus was newly introduced in this area, natural immunity of livestock was absent. This allowed determination of the role of vaccination in changing the velocity of bluetongue spread while accounting for environmental factors that possibly influenced it. The average estimated velocity across the country despite restriction on animal movements was 5.4 km/day, which is very similar to the velocity of spread of the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic in France also estimated in a context of restrictions on animal movements. Vaccination significantly reduced the propagation velocity of BTV-1. In comparison to municipalities with no vaccine coverage, the velocity of BTV-1 spread decreased by 1.7 km/day in municipalities with immunized animals. For the first time, the effect of vaccination has been quantified using data from a real epizootic whilst accounting for environmental factors known to modify the velocity of bluetongue spread. Our findings emphasize the importance of vaccination in limiting disease spread across natural landscape. Finally, environmental factors, specifically those related to vector abundance and activity, were found to be good predictors of the velocity of BTV-1 spread, indicating that these variables need to be adequately accounted for when evaluating the role of vaccination on bluetongue spread.

The role of wildlife in bluetongue virus maintenance in Europe: lessons learned after the natural infection in Spain

Bluetongue (BT) is a re-emergent vector-borne viral disease of domestic and wild ruminants caused by bluetongue virus (BTV), a member of the genus Orbivirus. A complex multi-host, multi-vector and multi-pathogen (26 serotypes) transmission and maintenance network has recently emerged in Europe, and wild ruminants are regarded as an important node in this network. This review analyses the reservoir role of wild ruminants in Europe, identifying gaps in knowledge and proposing actions. Wild ruminant species are indicators of BTV circulation. Excepting the mouflon (Ovis aries musimon), European wild ungulates do not develop clinical disease. Diagnostic techniques used in wildlife do not differ from those used in domestic ruminants provided they are validated. Demographic, behavioural and physiological traits of wild hosts modulate their relationship with BTV vectors and with the virus itself. While BTV has been eradicated from central and northern Europe, it is still circulating in the Mediterranean Basin. We propose that currently two BTV cycles coexist in certain regions of the Mediterranean Basin, a wild one largely driven by deer of the subfamily Cervinae and a domestic one. These are probably linked through shared Culicoides vectors of several species. We suggest that wildlife might be contributing to this situation through vector maintenance and virus maintenance. Additionally, differences in temperature and other environmental factors add complexity to the Mediterranean habitats as compared to central and northern European ones. Intervention options in wildlife populations are limited. There is a need to know the role of wildlife in maintaining Culicoides populations, and to know which Culicoides species mediate the wildlife-livestock-BTV transmission events. There is also a clear need to study more in depth the links between Cervinae deer densities, environmental factors and BTV maintenance. Regarding disease control, we suggest that research efforts should be focused on wildlife population and wildlife disease monitoring.

Culicoides biting midges, arboviruses and public health in Europe

The emergence of multiple strains of bluetongue virus (BTV) and the recent discovery of Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in Europe have highlighted the fact that exotic Culicoides-borne arboviruses from remote geographic areas can enter and spread rapidly in this region. This review considers the potential for this phenomenon to impact on human health in Europe, by examining evidence of the role of Culicoides biting midges in the zoonotic transmission and person-to-person spread of arboviruses worldwide. To date, the only arbovirus identified as being primarily transmitted by Culicoides to and between humans is Oropouche virus (OROV). This member of the genus Orthobunyavirus causes major epidemics of febrile illness in human populations of South and Central America and the Caribbean. We examine factors promoting sustained outbreaks of OROV in Brazil from an entomological perspective and assess aspects of the epidemiology of this arbovirus that are currently poorly understood, but may influence the risk of incursion into Europe. We then review the secondary and rarely reported role of Culicoides in the transmission of high-profile zoonotic infections, while critically reviewing evidence of this phenomenon in endemic transmission and place this in context with the presence of other potential vector groups in Europe. Scenarios for the incursions of Culicoides-borne human-to-human transmitted and zoonotic arboviruses are then discussed, along with control measures that could be employed to reduce their impact. These measures are placed in the context of legislative measures used during current and ongoing outbreaks of Culicoides-borne arboviruses in Europe, involving both veterinary and public health sectors.

Predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of Culicoides imicola in Sardinia using a discrete-time population model

Background

Culicoides imicola KIEFFER, 1913 (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) is the principal vector of Bluetongue disease in the Mediterranean basin, Africa and Asia. Previous studies have identified a range of eco-climatic variables associated with the distribution of C. imicola, and these relationships have been used to predict the large-scale distribution of the vector. However, these studies are not temporally-explicit and can not be used to predict the seasonality in C. imicola abundances. Between 2001 and 2006, longitudinal entomological surveillance was carried out throughout Italy, and provided a comprehensive spatio-temporal dataset of C. imicola catches in Onderstepoort-type black-light traps, in particular in Sardinia where the species is considered endemic.

Methods

We built a dynamic model that allows describing the effect of eco-climatic indicators on the monthly abundances of C. imicola in Sardinia. Model precision and accuracy were evaluated according to the influence of process and observation errors.

Results

A first-order autoregressive cofactor, a digital elevation model and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST)/or temperatures acquired from weather stations explained ~77% of the variability encountered in the samplings carried out in 9 sites during 6 years. Incorporating Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or rainfall did not increase the model's predictive capacity. On average, dynamics simulations showed good accuracy (predicted vs. observed r corr = 0.9). Although the model did not always reproduce the absolute levels of monthly abundances peaks, it succeeded in reproducing the seasonality in population level and allowed identifying the periods of low abundances and with no apparent activity. On that basis, we mapped C. imicola monthly distribution over the entire Sardinian region.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated prospects for modelling data arising from Culicoides longitudinal entomological surveillance. The framework explicitly incorporates the influence of eco-climatic factors on population growth rates and accounts for observation and process errors. Upon validation, such a model could be used to predict monthly population abundances on the basis of environmental conditions, and hence can potentially reduce the amount of entomological surveillance.

Impacts of climate, host and landscape factors on Culicoides species in Scotland

Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) vector a wide variety of internationally important arboviral pathogens of livestock and represent a widespread biting nuisance. This study investigated the influence of landscape, host and remotely-sensed climate factors on local abundance of livestock-associated species in Scotland, within a hierarchical generalized linear model framework. The Culicoides obsoletus group and the Culicoides pulicaris group accounted for 56% and 41%, respectively, of adult females trapped. Culicoides impunctatus Goetghebuer and C. pulicaris s.s. Linnaeus were the most abundant and widespread species in the C. pulicaris group (accounting for 29% and 10%, respectively, of females trapped). Abundance models performed well for C. impunctatus, Culicoides deltus Edwards and Culicoides punctatus Meigen (adjusted R(2) : 0.59-0.70), but not for C. pulicaris s.s. (adjusted R(2) : 0.36) and the C. obsoletus group (adjusted R(2) : 0.08). Local-scale abundance patterns were best explained by models combining host, landscape and climate factors. The abundance of C. impunctatus was negatively associated with cattle density, but positively associated with pasture cover, consistent with this species' preference in the larval stage for lightly grazed, wet rush pasture. Predicted abundances of this species varied widely among farms even over short distances (less than a few km). Modelling approaches that may facilitate the more accurate prediction of local abundance patterns for a wider range of Culicoides species are discussed.

Bluetongue virus serotype 1 outbreak in the Basque Country (Northern Spain) 2007-2008. Data support a primary vector windborne transport

BACKGROUND

Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of ruminants that has expanded its traditional global distribution in the last decade. Recently, BTV-1 emerged in Southern Spain and caused several outbreaks in livestock reaching the north of the country. The aim of this paper was to review the emergence of BTV-1 in the Basque Country (Northern Spain) during 2007 and 2008 analyzing the possibility that infected Culicoides were introduced into Basque Country by winds from the infected areas of Southern Spain.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We use a complex HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model to draw wind roses and backward wind trajectories. The analysis of winds showed September 28 to October 2 as the only period for the introduction of infected midges in the Basque Country. These wind trajectories crossed through the areas affected by serotype 1 on those dates in the South of the Iberian Peninsula. Additionally meteorological data, including wind speed and humidity, and altitude along the trajectories showed suitable conditions for Culicoides survival and dispersion.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

An active infection in medium-long distance regions, wind with suitable speed, altitude and trajectory, and appropriate weather can lead to outbreaks of BTV-1 by transport of Culicoides imicola, not only over the sea (as reported previously) but also over the land. This shows that an additional factor has to be taken into account for the control of the disease which is currently essentially based on the assumption that midges will only spread the virus in a series of short hops. Moreover, the epidemiological and serological data cannot rule out the involvement of other Culicoides species in the spread of the infection, especially at a local level.

Collection of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) using CO2 and enantiomers of 1-octen-3-ol in the United Kingdom

The host kairomones carbon dioxide (CO2) and 1-octen-3-ol elicit a host seeking response in a wide range of haematophagous Diptera. This study investigates the response of Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) to these cues using field-based experiments at two sites in the United Kingdom with very different species complements. Traps used for surveillance (miniature CDC model 512) and control (Mosquito Magnet Pro) were modified to release ratios of (R)- and (S)-1-octen-3-ol enantiomers in combination with CO2 and, in the case of the latter trap type, a thermal cue. Abundance and species diversity were then compared between these treatments and against collections made using a trap with a CO2 lure only, in a Latin square design. In both habitats, results demonstrated that semiochemical lures containing a high proportion of the (R)-enantiomer consistently attracted a greater abundance of host-seeking Culicoides females than any other treatment. Culicoides collected using an optimal stimulus of 500 ml/min CO2 combined with 4.1 mg/h (R)-1-octen-3-ol were then compared with those collected on sheep through the use of a drop trap. While preliminary in nature, this trial indicated Culicoides species complements are similar between collections made using the drop trap in comparison to the semiochemical-baited CDC trap, and that there are advantages in using (R)-1-octen-3-ol.

Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases.