Is the dementia rate increasing in Beijing? Prevalence and incidence of dementia 10 years later in an urban elderly population

Projection for dementia burden in China to 2050: a macro-simulation study by scenarios of dementia incidence trends

Background

It is unclear how temporal trends in dementia incidence, alongside fast-changing demography, will influence China's future dementia burden. We developed a Markov model that combines population trends in dementia, mortality, and dementia-related comorbidities, to forecast and decompose the burden of dementia in China to 2050.

Methods

Population-based Chinese ageing cohorts provided input data for a 10-health-state Markov macrosimulation model, IMPACT-China Ageing Model (CAM), to predict sex- and age-specific dementia prevalence among people aged 50+ by year to 2050. We assumed three potential future scenarios representing the range of likely dementia incidence trends: upward (+2.9%), flat (0%) or downward (-1.0%). Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine uncertainty associated with trends in mortality rates and CVD incidence. The projected dementia burden was decomposed into population growth, population ageing, and changing dementia prevalence corresponding to the three incidence trend scenarios.

Findings

Under the upward trend scenario, the estimated number of people living with dementia is projected to rise to 66.3 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 64.7-68.0 million), accounting for 10.4% of the Chinese population aged 50+ by 2050. This large burden will be lower, 43.9 (95% UI 42.9-45.0) million and 37.5 (95% UI 36.5-38.4) million, if dementia incidence remains constant or decreases. Robustness of the projection is confirmed by sensitivity analyses. Decomposition of the change in projected dementia cases indicates dominate effects of increasing dementia prevalence and population ageing, and a relatively minor contribution from negative population growth.

Interpretation

Our findings highlight an impending surge in dementia cases in China in the forthcoming decades if the upward trend in dementia incidence continues. Public health interventions geared towards dementia prevention could play a pivotal role in alleviating this burgeoning disease issue.

Funding

National Science Foundation of China/UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Barriers to brain health behaviours: results from the Five Lives Brain Health Ireland Survey

Modifiable risk factors for dementia remain prevalent in Ireland. A detailed examination of barriers to risk reduction behaviours in an Irish context has heretofore been lacking. Many existing studies examining barriers to brain health behaviours fail to examine how they might vary across different modifiable risk factors. This study undertook a detailed assessment of barriers to individual risk reduction behaviours. As existing research suggests that barriers may vary across sociodemographic factors, we sought to investigate the distribution of barriers across age, gender, educational status, and household income. The Five Lives Brain Health Ireland Survey is a cross-sectional survey that was distributed online amongst a non-patient population. The survey captured the following: (1) Sociodemographic factors; (2) Barriers to brain health behaviours; (3) Exposure to, and knowledge of, modifiable risk factors for dementia, namely diet, social interaction, exercise, hypertension, sleep, current low mood/depression, current smoking, alcohol consumption, cognitive stimulation, hearing impairment, diabetes, air pollution, and head injury; (4) Participants' perceptions regarding potential for dementia prevention, and risk reduction. Lack of motivation was the most prevalent barrier to consuming a healthy diet (64%, n = 213), physical activity (77.7%, n = 167), smoking cessation (68%, n = 85), and moderation of alcohol intake (56.3%, n = 67). Practical factors were the most prevalent barriers to addressing low mood (56.5%, n = 87), air pollution (30.1%, n = 58), hearing impairment (63.8%, n = 44), diabetes (11.1%, n = 5), and head injury (80%, n = 8). Emotional factors were the most prevalent barriers to engaging in mentally stimulating activity (56.9%, n = 66), social activity (54.9%, n = 302), and good sleep (70.1%, n = 129). Lack of knowledge was the most prevalent barrier to hypertension control (14.4%, n = 29). Distribution of barriers varied across age, gender, educational status, and household income. This study investigated barriers to lifestyle change to improve brain health in an Irish sample of adults aged 50 and above. Detailed subtyping of barriers, as well as examination of differences according to age, gender, education, and income were undertaken. The heterogeneity of barriers to brain health behaviours revealed in this study highlights the necessity to tailor public health interventions to their target population, taking into account the gender, age, educational status, and income of recipients.

Fasting Glucose Variability and the Risk of Dementia in Individuals with Diabetes: A Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

We investigated whether fasting glucose (FG) variability could predict the risk of dementia.

METHODS

This cohort study analyzed data from Koreans with diabetes after at least three health examinations by the Korean National Health Insurance Corporation between 2005 and 2010, which included at least one examination between 2009 and 2010. A total of 769,554 individuals were included, excluding those aged <40 years and those with dementia. FG variability was measured using the variability independent of the mean (FG-VIM). The incidence of dementia was defined by the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision codes and prescription of anti-dementia medication and was subdivided into Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VD).

RESULTS

During the 6.9-year follow-up, 54,837, 41,032, and 6,892 cases of all-cause dementia, AD, and VD, respectively, were identified. Cox proportional regression analyses showed that as the FG-VIM quartile increased, the risk of dementia serially increased after adjustment for metabolic factors, income status, and diabetes-related characteristics, including the mean FG. Participants in FG-VIM quartile 4 showed a 18%, 19%, and 17% higher risk for all-cause dementia, AD, and VD, respectively, than those in quartile 1; this particularly included non-obese patients with a longer duration of diabetes, high FG levels, dyslipidemia, and those taking glucose-lowering medications. Conversely, the baseline FG status and dementia showed a U-shaped association.

CONCLUSION

Increased FG variability over 5 years can predict the risk of dementia in individuals with diabetes in Korea. This finding was more pronounced in patients with less favorable metabolic profiles.

Projected prevalence and incidence of dementia accounting for secular trends and birth cohort effects: a population-based microsimulation study

There is need for accurate projections of the future dementia burden to prepare healthcare systems and policymakers. Existing projections only account for population ageing, not for observed declines in age-specific dementia incidence of 13% per decade. We developed a dementia microsimulation model that synthesizes population-based data from the Rotterdam Study with changes in demographics between birth cohorts from the early 1900s onwards. We determined dementia prevalence and incidence until 2050 for three different dementia incidence trend scenarios: (1) stable age-specific incidence, (2) linear decline by 13% per decade, (3) nonlinear declines averaging 13% per decade. Assuming a stable age-specific incidence resulted in a 130% increase in incidence and 118% in prevalence between 2020 and 2050. By contrast, the linearly declining trend resulted in substantially smaller increases of 58% in incidence (95%CI: 29–87%), and 43% in prevalence (95%CI: 13–66%), corresponding to 39% lower incidence and 36% lower prevalence by 2050 than in the stable-incidence scenario. Results for various non-linear declines fell between the stable and linear trend. The future burden of dementia is highly susceptible to achievable changes in age-specific incidence. Extension of previously established secular trends globally would reduce widely upheld projections of new dementia cases until 2050 by 39%.

Annual Incidence of Dementia from 2003 to 2018 in Metropolitan Seoul, Korea: A Population-Based Study

National dementia plans were applied in dementia support centers established in Seoul, Korea between 2007 and 2009. However, the annual incidence rates of dementia in Seoul have not been reported. We investigated this annual incidence and the characteristics of incident cases from 2003 to 2018. The customized research database of the Korean National Health Insurance Services was used. The annual crude and age-standardized incidence of dementia patients and their characteristics were analyzed. This study analyzed 108,596 incident dementia cases aged ≥60 years. The incidence rate increased from 2003 to 2011, including a rapid increment from 2007 to 2011. From 2011 to 2018, the crude (age-standardized) incidence per 105 person-years decreased from 641.51 (577.12) to 448.26 (361.23). The proportion of incident dementia cases was highest in the highest income group every year. However, the proportion of incident dementia cases in the lowest income group increased from 10.4% in 2003 to 25.8% in 2011. The annual incidence rate of dementia showed a sharp increase immediately after 2007, the year dementia support centers began to be introduced, and then stabilized after 2011. The characteristics of incident dementia cases have changed, including the proportion in the low-income group.

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors.

METHODS

We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis.

FINDINGS

We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia.

INTERPRETATION

Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.

A 9-Year Comparison of Dementia Prevalence in Korea: Results of NaSDEK 2008 and 2017

BACKGROUND

In many high-income Western countries, the prevalence of dementia had been reduced over the past decades.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated whether the prevalence of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) had changed in Korea from 2008 to 2017.

METHODS

Nationwide Survey on Dementia Epidemiology of Korea (NaSDEK) in 2008 and 2017 was conducted on representative elderly populations that were randomly sampled across South Korea. Both surveys employed a two-stage design (screening and diagnostic phases) and diagnosed dementia and MCI according to the fourth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders and the consensus criteria from the International Working Group, respectively. The numbers of participants aged 65 years or older in the screening and diagnostic phases were 6,141 and 1,673 in the NaSDEK 2008 and 2,972 and 474 in the NaSDEK 2017, respectively.

RESULTS

The age- and sex-standardized prevalence of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's disease showed nonsignificant decrease (12.3% to 9.8%, odds ratio [OR] = 0.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.54-1.48 for all-cause dementia; 7.6% to 6.8%, OR [95% CI] = 0.91 [0.58-1.42] for Alzheimer's disease). Vascular dementia decreased in the young-old population aged less than 75 years (2.7% to 0.001%, OR [95% CI] = 0.04 [0.01-0.15]) and in women (1.9% to 0.5%, OR [95% CI] = 0.27 [0.10-0.72]) while MCI remained stable (25.3% to 26.2%, OR [95% CI] = 1.08 [0.67-1.73]).

CONCLUSION

We found that the prevalence of dementia in Korea showed a nonsignificant decrease between 2008 and 2017.

Model-Based Projection of Dementia Prevalence in China and Worldwide: 2020-2050

BACKGROUND

Current and future incidence and prevalence estimates of dementia are essential for public health planning.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to establish prediction model of incidence and estimate the prevalence of dementia in the Chinese and worldwide population from 2020 to 2050.

METHODS

A model-based method was used to project the dementia prevalence from 2020 to 2050 in China, which required incidence, the mortality rate for individual without dementia, and the relative risk of death. Furthermore, we detected the impact of intervention on the prevalence projection for dementia using a simulation method. We applied the same method to other projections worldwide.

RESULTS

In 2020, the model predicted 16.25 million (95%confidence interval 11.55-21.18) persons with dementia in China. By 2050, this number would increase by approximately three-fold to 48.98 million (38.02-61.73). Through data simulation, if the incidence of dementia decreased by 10%every 10 years from 2020 after intervention and prevention, the number of dementia cases by 2050 was reduced by 11.96 million. This would reduce the economic burden by US $639.04 billion. In addition, using this model, dementia cases grew relatively slowly over the next few decades in the United States of America, the United Kingdom, and Japan, with percentage changes of 100.88%, 65.93%, and 16.20%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The number of people with dementia in China is large and will continue to increase rapidly. Effective interventions could reduce the number of patients drastically. Therefore, prevention and control strategies must be formulated urgently to reduce the occurrence of dementia.

Incidence and risk factors of dementia and the primary subtypes in northern rural China

This study was carried out to estimate the incidence and to determine socio-demographic risk factors for dementia among individuals residing in rural northern China.The current prospective, population-based study was conducted between 2011 and 2016. Follow-up interviews were conducted annually from 2014 to 2016. The study involved 1511 dementia-free individuals aged 60 years or above from rural China. Standard criteria were used to make diagnoses for dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD).At least one follow up survey was completed with 1181 study participants. At the 5-year follow-up, 127 individuals had developed dementia, 75 had developed AD, and 32 had developed vascular dementia (VaD). With a total of 5649.2 risk years for the sample, the estimated incidence rates per 1000 person-years were 22.48 (95% CI: 18.62, 26.35) for dementia and 13.28 (95% CI: 10.29, 16.26) for AD. Incidence rates for dementia and AD increased with age across the 10-year age groups. Poor education (illiteracy) was an independent risk factor for both AD and VaD. Being engaged in social activities was an independent protective factor for VaD.The incidence of dementia in rural China was found to be higher than previously reported. Incidence of dementia increased with age, and AD was the most frequent type of dementia. Poor education was associated with a higher risk of VaD and AD. Engagement in social activities was an independent protective factor for VaD.

A Protein Assembly Hypothesis for Population-Specific Decrease in Dementia with Time

A recent report in the journal, Neurology, documents age-normalized, nation-specific (e.g., United States and Western Europe), progressive decrease of dementia, beginning about 25 years ago. This observation has, thus far, not had explanation. We begin our proposed explanation with the following previous disease construct. (1) Some dementia is caused by innate immune over-response to infections. (2) The innate immune over-response occurs via excessive conversion of amyloid protein to α-sheet conformation. (3) This conversion evolved to inhibit invading microbes by binding microbe-associated α-sheet, e.g., in hyper-expanded capsid intermediates of some viruses. The rarity of human α-sheet makes this inhibition specific for microbial invaders. As foundation, here we observe directly, for the first time, extreme, sheet-like outer shell thinness in a hyper-expanded capsid of phage T3. Based on phage/herpesvirus homology, we propose the following. The above decrease in dementia is caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV) vaccination, USFDA-approved about 25 years ago; VZV is a herpesvirus and causes chickenpox and shingles. In China and Japan, a cotemporaneous non-decrease is explained by lower anti-VZV vaccination. Co-assembly extension of α-sheet is relatively independent of amino acid sequence. Thus, we project that additional dementia is suppressible by vaccination against other viruses, including other herpesviruses.

Prevalence and incidence of dementia in an older Chinese population over two decades: The role of education

INTRODUCTION

Secular trends of dementia prevalence and incidence have rarely been studied in the Chinese population.

METHODS

We examined the changes in dementia prevalence and incidence by comparing data from Shanghai Epidemiological Survey of Dementia and Alzheimer's disease (SESD) and Shanghai Aging Study (SAS) conducted two decades apart.

FINDINGS

The dementia prevalence and incidence in total participants in SAS were higher than that in SESD (prevalence: 6.44% vs 2.30%, P < .001; annual incidence: 2.58% vs 1.33%, P < .001). In participants with ≤6 years of education, the dementia prevalence in SAS was higher than that in SESD (6.39% vs 3.07%, P < .001); the annual dementia incidence in SAS was double that in SESD (3.63% vs 1.80%, P = .019).

DISCUSSION

We observed an increasing trend of dementia prevalence and incidence in the Chinese elderly, especially those with low education. The dramatic rise in numbers of people with dementia may happen most likely in low-educated populations.

Twenty-seven-year time trends in dementia incidence in Europe and the United States: The Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium

OBJECTIVE

To determine changes in the incidence of dementia between 1988 and 2015.

METHODS

This analysis was performed in aggregated data from individuals >65 years of age in 7 population-based cohort studies in the United States and Europe from the Alzheimer Cohort Consortium. First, we calculated age- and sex-specific incidence rates for all-cause dementia, and then defined nonoverlapping 5-year epochs within each study to determine trends in incidence. Estimates of change per 10-year interval were pooled and results are presented combined and stratified by sex.

RESULTS

Of 49,202 individuals, 4,253 (8.6%) developed dementia. The incidence rate of dementia increased with age, similarly for women and men, ranging from about 4 per 1,000 person-years in individuals aged 65-69 years to 65 per 1,000 person-years for those aged 85-89 years. The incidence rate of dementia declined by 13% per calendar decade (95% confidence interval [CI], 7%-19%), consistently across studies, and somewhat more pronouncedly in men than in women (24% [95% CI 14%-32%] vs 8% [0%-15%]).

CONCLUSION

The incidence rate of dementia in Europe and North America has declined by 13% per decade over the past 25 years, consistently across studies. Incidence is similar for men and women, although declines were somewhat more profound in men. These observations call for sustained efforts to finding the causes for this decline, as well as determining their validity in geographically and ethnically diverse populations.

Decline in the Incidence of All-Cause and Alzheimer's Disease Dementia: a 12-Year-Later Rural Cohort Study in Korea

BACKGROUND

There has been no study on the time trends of dementia incidence in Korea. We report the 5-year incidence and its correlates of all-cause and Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia, and compared our results with those of a 12-year-prior cohort study conducted in the same area.

METHODS

A total of 751 community-dwelling older adults were followed up for a mean duration of 5.4 years. The age-, gender-, and educational attainment-specific incidence of all-cause and AD dementia were reported as cases per 1,000 person-years. We performed univariate and multivariate cox proportional hazard regression analyses to determine whether baseline sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical variables were associated with the risk of all-cause and AD dementia. A 12-year-prior cohort study was used for descriptive comparison to indicate the time trends of dementia incidence.

RESULTS

The incidence rates were 16.2 and 13.0 cases per 1,000 person-years for all-cause and AD dementia, respectively. The baseline diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment increased the 5-year incidence of all-cause dementia by more than 4-fold. Old age and low baseline global cognitive function were noted as risk factors for both all-cause and AD dementia.

CONCLUSION

Upon comparing the results with those from the earlier cohort study in Yeoncheon, the incidence of all-cause and AD dementia decreased by approximately 40% over 12 years; it has been mainly driven by the increase in the educational level of older adults. The declining time trends of incidence should be taken into account for estimating the future prevalence of dementia in Korea.

Gender and Age Differences and the Trend in the Incidence and Prevalence of Dementia and Alzheimer's Disease in Taiwan: A 7-Year National Population-Based Study

Background

Very few nationwide studies have focused on the variations in the incidence and prevalence of dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD) in Asian countries. This study aims to describe the gender and age differences in the incidence and prevalence of dementia and AD in Taiwan.

Methods

The data on dementia and AD were acquired from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database from 2004 to 2010. The sex and age-specific rates were standardized, and the differences of gender and age on dementia or AD were assessed using Poisson regression analysis.

Results

Over seven years, the prevalence of dementia and AD significantly increased from 4.7 to 7.6 per hundred people (β = 0.0784, p < 0.0001) and 2.3 to 3.5 per hundred people (β = 0.0696, p < 0.0001), respectively. However, the incidence of both dementia and AD decreased but not significantly from 10.9 to 10.7 and 4.9 to 4.6 per thousand person-years, respectively. Noticeably, both incidence and prevalence increased with age and were higher in women than in men.

Conclusions

The standardized incidence rates of dementia and AD are much lower than the data reported in some studies from Europe, the US, and Japan. Further studies are warranted to explore which factors are associated with the differences in the incidence of dementia and AD in Taiwan.

Secular Trends in Dementia Prevalence and Incidence Worldwide: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Time trends for dementia prevalence and incidence rates have been reported over the past seven decades in different countries and some have reported a decline.

OBJECTIVE

To undertake a systematic review to critically appraise and provide an evidence-based summary of the magnitude and direction of the global changes in dementia prevalence and incidence across time.

METHODS

Medline, EMBASE, and PsychINFO were searched for studies focused on secular trends in dementia prevalence and/or incidence until 18 December 2017. In total, 10,992 articles were identified and 43 retained.

RESULTS

Overall, prevalence rates are largely increasing (evidence primarily from record-based surveys and cohort studies in Japan, Canada, and France) or have remained stable (evidence primarily from cohort studies in Sweden, Spain and China). A significant decline in prevalence has however been reported in more recent studies (i.e., from 2010 onwards) from Europe (e.g., UK and Sweden) and the USA. Incidence rates have generally remained stable or decreased in China, Canada, France, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, UK, and USA. An increase has only been reported in five countries: Italy, Japan, Wales, Germany, and the Netherlands. Only one study reported findings (stability in incidence) from a low and middle-income country using data from Nigeria.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence on secular trends in the prevalence and incidence of dementia is mixed including contradictory findings using different (and in some cases the same) datasets in some countries (e.g., the USA, UK, and Sweden). This making it difficult to draw concrete conclusions. However, declining trends recently observed in some high-income Western countries in the most recent two decades including the UK, USA, and Sweden are encouraging. Updated dementia prevalence and incidence estimates will inform public health and financial planning as well as development of prevention strategies.

Dementia in China: epidemiology, clinical management, and research advances

China has the largest population of patients with dementia in the world, imposing a heavy burden on the public and health care systems. More than 100 epidemiological studies on dementia have been done in China, but the estimates of the prevalence and incidence remain inconsistent because of the use of different sampling methods. Despite improved access to health services, inadequate diagnosis and management for dementia is still common, particularly in rural areas. The Chinese Government issued a new policy to increase care facilities for citizens older than 65 years, but most patients with dementia still receive care at home. Western medicines for dementia symptoms are widely used in China, but many patients choose Chinese medicines even though they have little evidence supporting efficacy. The number of clinical trials of Chinese and western medicines has substantially increased as a result of progress in research on new antidementia drugs but international multicentre studies are few in number. Efforts are needed to establish a national system of dementia care enhance training in dementia for health professionals, and develop global collaborations to prevent and cure this disease.

Risk of Incident Dementia According to Metabolic Health and Obesity Status in Late Life: A Population-Based Cohort Study

CONTEXT

The risk for dementia among subjects who are obese with normal metabolic profiles, or called metabolically healthy obese (MHO), remains uninvestigated.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between late-life metabolic health and obesity status and risk of incident dementia.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

The National Health Insurance System, Republic of Korea.

PATIENTS

A total of 12,296,863 adults >50 years old who underwent health examinations from 2009 to 2012 without baseline history of dementia.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Incident overall dementia, Alzheimer's disease (AD), and vascular dementia (VaD).

RESULTS

Among subjects ≥60 years old, 363,932 (6.4%) developed dementia during a median follow-up of 65 months (interquartile range 51 to 74 months). The MHO group showed the lowest incidence of overall dementia [hazard ratio (HR) 0.85; 95% CI, 0.84 to 0.86] and AD (HR 0.87; 95% CI, 0.86 to 0.88), but not VaD, compared with the metabolically healthy nonobese group. All components of metabolic syndrome except obesity significantly elevated the risk of dementia, and these associations were more pronounced in VaD. In particular, being underweight dramatically increased the risk of dementia.

CONCLUSIONS

The MHO phenotype in late life demonstrated lower risk of overall dementia and AD but not VaD. Additional studies in other populations are warranted to elucidate current results and may predict individuals most at risk for developing dementia.

Incidence of Dementia and Alzheimer Disease Over Time: A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Population-based incidence estimates of dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD) provide important information for public health policy and resource allocation. We conducted a meta-analysis of published studies that reported age-specific incidence rates of dementia and AD to determine whether dementia and AD incidence rates are changing over time.

DESIGN

PubMed and MEDLINE were searched for publications through June 30, 2017, using key words "dementia", "Alzheimer", and "incidence." Inclusion criteria for the meta-analysis are: (1) population-based studies using personal interviews and direct examinations of the study subjects, (2) standardized clinical diagnosis criteria, (3) reporting age-specific incidence rates, (4) published in English, and (5) sample size of 500 or greater and length of follow-up of 2 years or greater. Mixed-effects models were used to determine the association between birth year and incidence rates.

MEASUREMENTS

Age-specific dementia/AD incidence rates and their standard errors reported in each study.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight articles with 53 cohorts on dementia incidence and 31 articles with 35 cohorts on AD incidence met the inclusion criteria. There were significant associations between later birth years and decreased dementia incidence rates in all three age groups (65-74, 75-84, and 85 years and older). There were no significant associations between birth year and AD incident rates in any of the three age groups. In particular, AD incidence rates reported from Western countries stayed steady in all age groups, while studies in non-Western countries showed significantly increased AD incidence rates for the 65 to 74 years age group (odds ratio = 2.78; P = .04), but a nonsignificant association for the 75 to 84 or 85 years and older groups.

CONCLUSION

Dementia incidence declined over the past four decades, but AD incidence did not decline. Further research, especially from non-Western countries, is needed to elucidate the mechanism underlying the trends in dementia and AD incidence over time.

Aging without Dementia is Achievable: Current Evidence from Epidemiological Research

Both the incidence and the prevalence of dementia increase exponentially with increasing age. This raises the question of whether dementia is an inevitable consequence of aging or whether aging without dementia is achievable. In this review article, we sought to summarize the current evidence from epidemiological and neuropathological studies that investigated this topic. Epidemiological studies have shown that dementia could be avoided even at extreme old ages (e.g., centenarians or supercentenarians). Furthermore, clinico-neuropathological studies found that nearly half of centenarians with dementia did not have sufficient brain pathology to explain their cognitive symptoms, while intermediate-to-high Alzheimer pathology was present in around one-third of very old people without dementia or cognitive impairment. This suggests that certain compensatory mechanisms (e.g., cognitive reserve or resilience) may play a role in helping people in extreme old ages escape dementia syndrome. Finally, evidence has been accumulating in recent years indicating that the incidence of dementia has declined in Europe and North America, which supports the view that the risk of dementia in late life is modifiable. Evidence has emerged that intervention strategies that promote general health, maintain vascular health, and increase cognitive reserve are likely to help preserve cognitive function till late life, thus achieving the goal of aging without dementia.

Prevalence of dementia in the People's Republic of China from 1985 to 2015: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis

BACKGROUND

In China, the most populous developing country in the world, dementia represents a serious challenge. We performed a large-scale systematic review and meta-regression analysis to elucidate the prevalence of dementia and its subtypes and to identify potential factors underlying the differences between articles.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted in the following databases to identify studies published up to December 2015: Cochrane Library, CBMDISK, Chongqing VIP, CNKI, PubMed and EMBASE. All statistical analyses (including subtype and meta-regression analyses) were performed with R version 3.3.3.

RESULTS

In total, 51 surveys were selected. The pooled prevalence rates of dementia and its main subtypes, namely, Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VAD), for the population aged 55 years and older were 4.03, 2.44 and 1.09%, respectively. The outcomes showed that the meta-regression analysis was affected by the publication year, sample size, region and diagnostic criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis provided reliable estimates of the prevalence of dementia/ AD/ VD over the past 30 years, which may be affected by education level, and diagnostic criteria. The prevalence of AD/VAD was higher in northern than in southern China, which warrants further study.

The temporal trend and distribution characteristics in mortality of Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia in China: Based on the National Mortality Surveillance System (NMS) from 2009 to 2015

Background

China is experiencing rapid age, which will lead to increasing burden of age-related diseases, such as Alzheimer disease and other forms of dementia.

Objectives

The aim of this study was to 1) Explore the temporal trend of mortality of Alzheimer disease (AD) and other forms of dementia in China and 2) Analyze its geographic variations and urban-rural differences and calculate the years of life lost (YLLs) from AD and other forms of dementia.

Data and methods

Data were extracted from the National Mortality Surveillance System (NMS). Age-standardized mortalities were calculated with the Western Grade 26 Standard Life List, and the YLLs were calculated using the DALY template provided by the WHO / World Bank global burden of disease (GBD) Working Group. The trends in crude and age-standardized mortality of AD and other forms of dementia were examined using Cochran-Armitage trend test.

Results

In China, the crude mortality from AD and other forms of dementia increased from 2009 to 2015, but the age-standardized mortality decreased. The YLLs of AD and other forms of dementia increased during the study period. The age-standardized mortality in the east was higher than those in the west and middle regions, and the age-standardized mortality in rural areas was higher than that in urban areas.

Conclusion

In China, the age-standardized mortality of AD and other forms of dementia decreased from 2009 to 2015. However, the disease burden from AD and other forms of dementia is becoming heavier due to increasing elderly population. Moreover, there were geographic variations and urban-rural differences in mortality of AD and other forms of dementia in China.

Comparative analysis of cognitive impairment prevalence and its etiological subtypes in a rural area of northern China between 2010 and 2015

The purpose of this study was to evaluate changes in the prevalence and risk factors of cognitive impairment (CI) by analyzing and comparing two cross-sectional epidemiological surveys of CI and its subtypes were performed in a rural area of northern China between 2010 and 2015. Residents aged ≥60 years were drawn in northern China. The Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) is recommended to test for CI. Dementia was further categorised into Alzheimer’s disease (AD), vascular dementia (VaD), and dementia caused by other diseases (ODs). Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) was classified into MCI caused by AD (MCI-A), MCI caused by VaD (MCI-VD), and MCI caused by ODs (MCI-O). The prevalence of CI increased in China. The prevalence of all-cause CI was 30·5% (22.9% MCI and 7.6% dementia) in 2010. The prevalence of all-cause CI was 38.3% (27.8% MCI and 10.5% dementia) in 2015. Similar increases were observed for the prevalence of subtypes of dementia and MCI. These findings suggest an increasing prevalence of CI and its subtypes in China, which may be related to alterations in sociodemographic factors, vascular risk factors and lifestyle changes over time in these cohorts.

Thirty-year trends in dementia: a nationwide population study of Swedish inpatient records

Background

The continuous growth of the current dementia epidemic is contingent on the stability of age- and sex-specific trends over time. However, recent evidence suggests declining or stable trends. The aim of this study was to evaluate the real-world changes in the burden of dementia in older adults in Sweden from 1987 to 2016 by estimating age- and sex-specific incidence of dementia diagnosis in hospital inpatient records (dementia incidence). Differences in trends by sex, age, and educational levels were also examined.

Methods

The entire Swedish population aged 65 years and older was followed up from 1987 to 2016. Age-, sex-, and education-stratified dementia incidence rates for every follow-up year were estimated using the National Patient Register. Hazard ratio of receiving a dementia diagnosis in the inpatient records per 1 calendar year increase was estimated with discrete time logistic models with a complementary log–log link.

Results

After increase, especially in those >85 years of age, dementia incidence started to decrease in the last 5 years of the study period. After 2011, 1 calendar year increase was associated with lower hazard ratio of receiving a hospital diagnosis of dementia. The decrease had the highest magnitude in 70–74-year-olds (−5.5%), followed by 75–79-year-olds (−4.5%) and 80–84-year-olds (−4.0%). The decrease was present in both sexes and at all educational levels up to 90 years of age. Age was associated with the level of dementia incidence, and the trends differed by age group. Educational gradient was observed. University-educated older adults had the lowest rates of dementia. However, the trend over time did not substantially differ by sex or educational level.

Conclusion

Our results provide more evidence that dementia incidence may be declining. They also suggest that at least in hospitals, the number of new patients with dementia may decrease in the future.

Trends in Dementia Incidence in a Birth Cohort Analysis of the Einstein Aging Study

Importance

Trends in dementia incidence rates have important implications for planning and prevention. To better understand incidence trends over time requires separation of age and cohort effects, and few prior studies have used this approach.

Objectives

To examine trends in dementia incidence and concomitant trends in cardiovascular comorbidities among individuals aged 70 years or older who were enrolled in the Einstein Aging Study between 1993 and 2015.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this birth cohort analysis of all-cause dementia incidence in persons enrolled in the Einstein Aging Study from October 20, 1993, through November 17, 2015, a systematically recruited, population-based sample of 1348 participants from Bronx County, New York, who were 70 years or older without dementia at enrollment and at least one annual follow-up was studied. Poisson regression was used to model dementia incidence as a function of age, sex, educational level, race, and birth cohort, with profile likelihood used to identify the timing of significant increases or decreases in incidence.

Exposures

Birth year and age.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incident dementia defined by consensus case conference based on annual, standardized neuropsychological and neurologic examination findings, using criteria from the DSM-IV.

Results

Among 1348 individuals (mean [SD] baseline age, 78.5 [5.4] years; 830 [61.6%] female; 915 [67.9%] non-Hispanic white), 150 incident dementia cases developed during 5932 person-years (mean [SD] follow-up, 4.4 [3.4] years). Dementia incidence decreased in successive birth cohorts. Incidence per 100 person-years was 5.09 in birth cohorts before 1920, 3.11 in the 1920 through 1924 birth cohorts, 1.73 in the 1925 through 1929 birth cohorts, and 0.23 in cohorts born after 1929. Change point analyses identified a significant decrease in dementia incidence among those born after July 1929 (95% CI, June 1929 to January 1930). The relative rate for birth cohorts before July 1929 vs after was 0.13 (95% CI, 0.04-0.41). Prevalence of stroke and myocardial infarction decreased across successive birth cohorts, whereas diabetes prevalence increased. Adjustment for these cardiovascular comorbidities did not explain the decreased dementia incidence rates for more recent birth cohorts.

Conclusions and Relevance

Analyses confirm decreasing dementia incidence in this population-based sample. Whether decreasing incidence will contribute to reduced burden of dementia given the aging of the population is not known.

Prevalence of Mental Disorders among Older Chinese People in Tianjin City

OBJECTIVE

Population aging is accelerating across the world, and older people have a higher risk of mental disorders. Most studies focus on one mental disorder, and only report the current prevalence. Besides, these studies use screening scales for symptoms of mental disorders, which may induce biased results. In this study, we used data for diagnoses based on SCID that had been administered by trained psychiatrists to explore the 1-month and lifetime prevalence of mental disorders among a Chinese aged cohort.

METHODS

Data for this study was derived from the Tianjin Mental Health Survey. Participants were first screened using a General Health Questionnaire and 9 additional items on other risk factors for mental disorders, and then diagnosed with the Chinese version of Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-IV) Axis I disorders. A total of 3,325 people aged 60 and above had valid information, and 1,486 completed the SCID interview.

RESULTS

The weighted 1-month prevalence of mental disorders was 14.27%, whereas the lifetime prevalence of mental disorders was 24.20%. Most of these participants were female, older, currently not married, of lower education level, and with poor family economic status. Organic mental disorders had the highest 1-month prevalence (4.45%), whereas mood disorder was highest for the lifetime prevalence (9.75%).

CONCLUSION

Older Chinese people had a high prevalence of mental disorders. Further research and health services innovations are needed to address the high prevalence in these subgroups among older people.

Trends in the incidence of dementia: design and methods in the Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium

Several studies have reported a decline in incidence of dementia which may have large implications for the projected burden of disease, and provide important guidance to preventive efforts. However, reports are conflicting or inconclusive with regard to the impact of gender and education with underlying causes of a presumed declining trend remaining largely unidentified. The Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium aggregates data from nine international population-based cohorts to determine changes in the incidence of dementia since 1990. We will employ Poisson regression models to calculate incidence rates in each cohort and Cox proportional hazard regression to compare 5-year cumulative hazards across study-specific epochs. Finally, we will meta-analyse changes per decade across cohorts, and repeat all analysis stratified by sex, education and APOE genotype. In all cohorts combined, there are data on almost 69,000 people at risk of dementia with the range of follow-up years between 2 and 27. The average age at baseline is similar across cohorts ranging between 72 and 77. Uniting a wide range of disease-specific and methodological expertise in research teams, the first analyses within the Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium are underway to tackle outstanding challenges in the assessment of time-trends in dementia occurrence.

The changing prevalence and incidence of dementia over time - current evidence

Dementia is an increasing focus for policymakers, civil organizations and multidisciplinary researchers. The most recent descriptive epidemiological research into dementia is enabling investigation into how the prevalence and incidence are changing over time. To establish clear trends, such comparisons need to be founded on population-based studies that use similar diagnostic and research methods consistently over time. This narrative Review synthesizes the findings from 14 studies that investigated trends in dementia prevalence (nine studies) and incidence (five studies) from Sweden, Spain, the UK, the Netherlands, France, the USA, Japan and Nigeria. Besides the Japanese study, these studies indicate stable or declining prevalence and incidence of dementia, and some provide evidence of sex-specific changes. No single risk or protective factor has been identified that fully explains the observed trends, but major societal changes and improvements in living conditions, education and healthcare might have favourably influenced physical, mental and cognitive health throughout an individual's life course, and could be responsible for a reduced risk of dementia in later life. Analytical epidemiological approaches combined with translational neuroscientific research could provide a unique opportunity to explore the neuropathology that underlies changing occurrence of dementia in the general population.

Trends in dementia prevalence, incidence, and survival rate in a Japanese community

OBJECTIVE

To investigate secular trends in the prevalence, incidence, and survival rate of dementia in a Japanese elderly population in a comprehensive manner.

METHODS

Five cross-sectional surveys of dementia were conducted among residents of a Japanese community, aged ≥65 years, in 1985, 1992, 1998, 2005, and 2012. We also established 2 cohorts consisting of the residents of this age group without dementia in 1988 (n = 803) and 2002 (n = 1,231), and each was followed for 10 years.

RESULTS

The age-standardized prevalence of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD) increased with time (for all-cause dementia: 6.8% in 1985, 4.6% in 1992, 5.3% in 1998, 8.4% in 2005, and 11.3% in 2012, p for trend <0.01; for AD: 1.5%, 1.4%, 2.4%, 3.9%, and 7.2%, respectively, p for trend <0.01), while no secular change was observed for vascular dementia (VaD) (2.4%, 1.6%, 1.5%, 2.4%, and 2.4%, respectively, p for trend = 0.59). The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of all-cause dementia and AD, but not VaD, increased from the 1988 cohort to the 2002 cohort (for all-cause dementia: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38-2.06; for AD: aHR 2.07, 95% CI 1.59-2.70; for VaD: aHR 1.18, 95% CI 0.83-1.69). The 5-year survival rate of all-cause dementia and AD improved from the 1988 cohort to the 2002 cohort (for all-cause dementia: 47.3% to 65.2%; for AD: 50.7% to 75.1%; all p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The increased incidence and improved survival rate of AD could have resulted in the steep increase in AD prevalence in the Japanese elderly.

The Prevalence and Incidence of Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Updated information on the epidemiology of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is needed to ensure that adequate resources are available to meet current and future healthcare needs. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the incidence and prevalence of AD.

METHODS

The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched from 1985 to 2012, as well as the reference lists of selected articles. Included articles had to provide an original population-based estimate for the incidence and/or prevalence of AD. Two individuals independently performed abstract and full-text reviews, data extraction and quality assessments. Random-effects models were employed to generate pooled estimates stratified by age, sex, diagnostic criteria, location (i.e., continent) and time (i.e., when the study was done).

RESULTS

Of 16,066 abstracts screened, 707 articles were selected for full-text review. A total of 119 studies met the inclusion criteria. In community settings, the overall point prevalence of dementia due to AD among individuals 60+ was 40.2 per 1000 persons (CI95%: 29.1-55.6), and pooled annual period prevalence was 30.4 per 1000 persons (CI95%: 15.6-59.1). In community settings, the overall pooled annual incidence proportion of dementia due to AD among individuals 60+ was 34.1 per 1000 persons (CI95%: 16.4-70.9), and the incidence rate was 15.8 per 1000 person-years (CI95%: 12.9-19.4). Estimates varied significantly with age, diagnostic criteria used and location (i.e., continent).

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of AD dementia is substantial. Significant gaps in our understanding of its epidemiology were identified, even in a high-income country such as Canada. Future studies should assess the impact of using such newer clinical diagnostic criteria for AD dementia such as those of the National Institute on Aging-Alzheimer's Association and/or incorporate validated biomarkers to confirm the presence of Alzheimer pathology to produce more precise estimates of the global burden of AD.

Recent global trends in the prevalence and incidence of dementia, and survival with dementia

BACKGROUND

Current projections of the scale of the coming dementia epidemic assume that the age- and sex-specific prevalence of dementia will not vary over time, and that population ageing alone (increasing the number of older people at risk) drives the projected increases. The basis for this assumption is doubtful, and secular trends (that is, gradual decreases or increases in prevalence over long-term periods) are perfectly plausible.

METHODS

We carried out a systematic review of studies of trends in prevalence, incidence and mortality for people with dementia, conducted since 1980.

RESULTS

We identified nine studies that had tracked dementia prevalence, eight that had tracked dementia incidence, and four that had tracked mortality among people with dementia. There was some moderately consistent evidence to suggest that the incidence of dementia may be declining in high-income countries. Evidence on trends in the prevalence of dementia were inconsistent across studies and did not suggest any clear overall effect. Declining incidence may be balanced by longer survival with dementia, although mortality trends have been little studied. There is some evidence to suggest increasing prevalence in East Asia, consistent with worsening cardiovascular risk factor profiles, although secular changes in diagnostic criteria may also have contributed.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence to suggest that the current assumption of constant age-specific prevalence of dementia over time is ill-founded. However, there remains some uncertainty as to the future scale of the dementia epidemic. Population ageing seems destined to play the greatest role, and prudent policymakers should plan future service provision based upon current prevalence projections. Additional priorities should include investing in brain health promotion and dementia prevention programs, and monitoring the future course of the epidemic to chart the effectiveness of these measures.

The Prevalence and Incidence of Dementia: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Introduction

Dementia is a common neurological condition affecting many older individuals that leads to a loss of independence, diminished quality of life, premature mortality, caregiver burden and high levels of healthcare utilization and cost. This is an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of the worldwide prevalence and incidence of dementia.

Methods

The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched for relevant studies published between 2000 (1985 for Canadian papers) and July of 2012. Papers selected for full-text review were included in the systematic review if they provided an original population-based estimate for the incidence and/or prevalence of dementia. The reference lists of included articles were also searched for additional studies. Two individuals independently performed abstract and full-text review, data extraction, and quality assessment of the papers. Random-effects models and/or meta-regression were used to generate pooled estimates by age, sex, setting (i.e., community, institution, both), diagnostic criteria utilized, location (i.e., continent) and year of data collection.

Results

Of 16,066 abstracts screened, 707 articles were selected for full-text review. A total of 160 studies met the inclusion criteria. Among individuals 60 and over residing in the community, the pooled point and annual period prevalence estimates of dementia were 48.62 (CI95%: 41.98-56.32) and 69.07 (CI95%: 52.36-91.11) per 1000 persons, respectively. The respective pooled incidence rate (same age and setting) was 17.18 (CI95%: 13.90-21.23) per 1000 person-years, while the annual incidence proportion was 52.85 (CI95%: 33.08-84.42) per 1,000 persons. Increasing participant age was associated with a higher dementia prevalence and incidence. Annual period prevalence was higher in North America than in South America, Europe and Asia (in order of decreasing period prevalence) and higher in institutional compared to community and combined settings. Sex, diagnostic criteria (except for incidence proportion) and year of data collection were not associated with statistically significant different estimates of prevalence or incidence, though estimates were consistently higher for females than males.

Conclusions

Dementia is a common neurological condition in older individuals. Significant gaps in knowledge about its epidemiology were identified, particularly with regard to the incidence of dementia in low- and middle-income countries. Accurate estimates of prevalence and incidence of dementia are needed to plan for the health and social services that will be required to deal with an aging population.

Prevalence of dementia in East Asia: a synthetic review of time trends

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to synthesise evidence on time trends of dementia prevalence in East Asian countries including Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan and assess the impact of the societal changes on future prevalence.

METHOD

Relevant reviews and recent nationwide studies in East Asia were identified to investigate changes in prevalence of dementia over time taking into account the potential impact of methodological factors and study designs.

RESULTS

The robust evidence that has been interpreted to suggest a substantial increasing trend over time is less compelling once fundamental differences in study methods and populations across individual surveys are considered. In Japan, longitudinal studies in small areas suggest the potential increase of prevalence after 2000. Increasing trends in China, South Korea and Taiwan over the last 20-30 years are based on the literature review without adjustment for methodological differences. Economic development and huge societal changes alongside the rise of non-communicable disease in East Asia could lead to increasing prevalence of dementia in the future once those cohorts with high risk of dementia reached their older age.

CONCLUSION

Current evidence is not sufficient to suggest increasing trends of dementia prevalence in East Asia. Longitudinal studies with representative samples and stable methodology are needed to provide fundamental information of the epidemiology of dementia and identify important risk factors in East Asian societies.

Dementia incidence declined in African-Americans but not in Yoruba

INTRODUCTION

To compare dementia incidence of African-American and Yoruba cohorts aged ≥70 years enrolled in 1992 and 2001.

METHODS

African-Americans residing in Indianapolis and Yoruba in Ibadan, Nigeria without dementia were enrolled in 1992 and 2001 and evaluated every 2-3 years until 2009. The cohorts consist of 1440 African-Americans, 1774 Yoruba in 1992 and 1835 African-Americans and 1895 Yoruba in the 2001 cohorts aged ≥70 years.

RESULTS

In African-Americans, dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD) incidence rates were significantly lower in 2001 than 1992 for all age groups except the oldest group. The overall standardized annual dementia incidence rates were 3.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.2%-4.1%) in the 1992 cohort and 1.4% (95% CI, 1.2%-1.7%) in the 2001 cohort. There was no significant difference in dementia or AD incidence between the Yoruba cohorts.

DISCUSSION

Future research is needed to explore the reasons for the differential changes in incidence rates in these two populations.

Incidence of dementia and subtypes: A cohort study in four regions in China

INTRODUCTION

There is a dearth of literature on the incidence of dementia in China.

METHODS

Using a stratified, multistage, cluster-sampling method, 16,921 nondemented participants ≥55 years were recruited from four regional centers in China in 1997 and followed up to 4.5 years. Cases were identified through a three-step protocol, according to standardized criteria for dementia, Alzheimer's dementia (AD), and vascular dementia (VaD).

RESULTS

The crude incidence in persons ≥65 years was 12.1/1000 person-years for dementia, 8.2/1000 person-years for AD, and 3.1/1000 person-years for VaD. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors, older age and lower education were associated with a higher risk of incident dementia, AD and VaD; regional difference was associated mainly with incidence of VaD (north vs. south: hazard ratio [HR] = 3.59); modestly with AD (east vs. west: HR = 1.55).

DISCUSSION

The incidence of dementia in Chinese population is comparable with that in Europe and United States.

Prevalence of dementia-associated disability among Chinese older adults: results from a national sample survey

OBJECTIVE

Due to rapid population aging and a tidal wave of dementia, dementia has become an urgent public health issue in China. Few large-scale surveys on dementia have been conducted in China and little was known about the magnitude of dysfunction and disability caused by dementia. In this study, using national sample survey data, we aimed to describe the prevalence rate of dementia-associated disability, its associated factors, and daily activities and social functions of people with dementia-associated disability in Chinese older adults.

METHODS

We used the second China National Sample Survey on Disability, comprising 2,526,145 persons from 771,797 households. Identification for dementia was based on consensus manuals. Standard weighting procedures were used to construct sample weights considering the multistage stratified cluster sampling survey scheme. Population weighted numbers, weighted prevalence, and the odd ratios (ORs) were calculated.

RESULTS

The prevalence rate of dementia-associated disability was 4.64% (95% CI: 4.26-5.01) and it accounted for 41.03% of mental disability among Chinese older adults. Urban residence (OR: 1.33 [1.12-1.57]), older age (80+ years) (OR: 4.12 [3.38-.03]), illiteracy (OR: 1.79 [1.27-2.53]), and currently not married (OR: 1.15 [1.00-1.32]) were associated with increased risk of dementia-associated disability. Compared with those with mental disability of other causes and those with other types of disabilities, older adults with dementia-asscoiated disability were more likely to have severe or extreme difficulty in daily activities and social functions.

CONCLUSION

Countermeasures are warranted to obtain a more precise overview of dementia in China, and strategies on enhancing early identification, treatment, and rehabilitation should be developed for people with dementia.

Dementia studies in Chinese populations

Variations in the prevalence of dementia in different ethnic groups have been reported worldwide, and a number of reviews have provided a picture of epidemiological studies in dementia research. However, little is known about epidemiological studies in Chinese populations. In this review, we searched PubMed and the Web of Science for original research articles published in English up to July 2013 on the prevalence, incidence, risk factors, and prognosis of dementia in Chinese populations worldwide. Except for the prevalence, we included only population-based follow-up studies. We identified 25 studies in elderly Chinese residents in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore, and found a higher prevalence of dementia in Mainland China than in the other locations, which may be due to that the studies from Mainland China are more recent than those from other locations. A notable increase in incidence was observed when dementia cases were diagnosed using 10/66 diagnostic criteria compared to other criteria. Studies on risk factors for dementia were limited and mostly from Mainland China. Age, gender, education, smoking, and alcohol consumption were related to the risk of dementia in Chinese populations. Only two prognostic studies were identified, and age, gender, and residential area were related to the prognosis of dementia. In conclusion, the prevalence, incidence, and risk factors for dementia found in Chinese populations were comparable to other ethnic groups, but no conclusive results on prognosis were found. The differences in prevalence and incidence were influenced by the diagnostic criteria and the time of study. Longitudinal population-based studies on the incidence, risk factors, and prognosis of dementia in Chinese populations are required.

Cognitive impairment and the associated risk factors among the elderly in the Shanghai urban area: a pilot study from China

Objectives

Our study aimed to investigate the prevalence of cognitive impairment(CI) and the associated risk factors among elderly people in Shanghai urban area, China.

Methods

A population-based survey was conducted among people aged 55 years or older in urban areas of Shanghai. Face-to-face interviews were carried out to collect information including demographic characteristics, medical history, and medication use, etc. The validated Chinese version of the Mini-Mental State Examination(MMSE) was used to screen subjects with CI, and the criteria of CI were adjusted for education levels.

Results

A total of 3,176 home-living residents (≥55 years old) were included in the study. Among them, 266 people (102 men and 164 women) were identified as cognition impaired, with a prevalence of 8.38% (266/3,176, 95% CI: (8.26, 8.49)) for both genders, 9.21% (102/1,107,95% CI: (9.18, 9.33)) for men and 7.93% (164/2,069, 95% CI: (7.80, 8.09)) for women, respectively. Furthermore, we found that several significant risk factors, including social factors(education, number of children, marriage status, and family structure), physiological factors (age, blood glucose level, and obesity), factors on living styles(physical exercise, diet & chronic diseases), and genetic factor(ApoE), associated with CI onset.

Conclusions

This study confirms the high prevalence of CI among the elderly population in the Shanghai urban in China, similar to previous epidemiologic studies in Western countries. The putative risk factors associated with CI merit further investigated.

Trends in prevalence and mortality of dementia in elderly Hong Kong population: projections, disease burden, and implications for long-term care

Background. We describe the trends in prevalence and mortality of dementia among older people in Hong Kong over time. Projections of the number of older people with dementia through 2039 and estimation of the disease burden are also included. Methods. Prevalence data were extracted from previous studies in Hong Kong. Mortality data were obtained from the Department of Health of Hong Kong. Projections of the number of people with dementia were calculated by applying the prevalence rates of dementia obtained from previous studies to Hong Kong population projections. The burden of dementia was measured by Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Results. The number of people aged 60 and above with dementia is projected to increase by 222%, from 103,433 in 2009 to 332,688 in 2039, with a large proportion of those living in institutions. The number of deaths due to dementia among people aged 60 and above has more than doubled between 2001 and 2009. Mortality rates for dementia have also risen. In 2006, about 286,313 DALYS were lost due to dementia. Conclusions. The information presented may be used to formulate a long-term care strategy for dementia of the ageing population in Hong Kong.

Prevalence of dementia and major dementia subtypes in the Chinese populations: a meta-analysis of dementia prevalence surveys, 1980-2010

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of dementia and its major subtypes in China. Forty-eight eligible studies were included in this review. The pooled prevalence for the population aged 60 years and older of Alzheimer's disease (AD) was 1.9%, vascular dementia (VaD) was 0.9%, and total dementia was 3.0%. The prevalence of VaD was significantly higher in Northern China than in Southern China. The prevalence of VaD was significantly higher in urban compared to rural areas. The prevalence of dementia and prevalence of AD increased with age in both males and females, and a higher prevalence of AD than VaD was observed in all age groups. AD has become more common than VaD in China since 1990. The current prevalence of dementia in China may be similar to that of developed countries.

Cognitive impairment using education-based cutoff points for CMMSE scores in elderly Chinese people of agricultural and rural Shanghai China

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate cognitive impairment (CI) in rural China using the Chinese version of the Mini-Mental Status Examination (CMMSE) and compare the prevalence of CI using two different cutoff points.

MATERIALS & METHODS

A population-based survey was conducted of 2809 people aged 60 years and above in a community of two towns (Huaxin and Xujing) in the Qingpu district, located in the western suburb of Shanghai. Face-to-face interviews were carried out to collect relevant information with questionnaires. The Chinese version of the Mini-Mental State Examination with either a 23/24 cutoff point or a cutoff point varying according to education level (AEL) was used to screen subjects for CI.

RESULTS

Among these subjects, the mean age was 70.6 years (SD = 6.6) and ranged from 60 to 92 years and included 1010 (36.0%) men and 1799 (64.0%) women. The mean age was 70.7 years (SD = 6.4) for men and 70.5 years (SD = 6.7) for women. Of the 2809 subjects, 2010 (71.5%) had no formal education, 607 (21.6%) completed 1-6 years of education, and 173 (6.2%) completed more than 6 years of school education. The prevalence of CI was 35.6% (95% CI: 33.8-37.4) for both genders when the cutoff point of 23/24 was used. However, when the cutoff point was altered with respect to different education levels, the prevalence of CI was 7.0%. For each item of the CMMSE, increased years of education correlated with a higher item score, with the exception of the 'Naming' item score.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that screening of CI using the AEL cutoff scores is feasible in a low-education population. Determining whether the 23/24 cutoff point is suitable for the Chinese people requires future prospective studies in a large Chinese population.

Incident dementia in a defined older Chinese population

Background

Current knowledge about incident dementia is mainly derived from studies undertaken in the West, showing that dementia is related to older age, low socio-economic status, lack of social network, depression and cardiovascular disease risk factors. We know little about incidence and predictors of dementia in China, where the prevalence is increasing and the patterns of risk factors are different.

Methods

Using a standard interview method, we examined 1526 non-demented people aged ≥65 years who had at least minimal educational level in China in a 7.5-year follow up. Incident dementia was diagnosed by GMS-AGECAT algorithms and psychiatrists.

Results

Age-standardised incidence of dementia was 14.7 per 1000 person-years (95%CI 11.3–18.2 per 1000 person-years). The increased risk was significantly associated with age, female gender (adjusted odds ratio 2.48, 95%CI 1.20–5.13), low educational levels, smoking, angina (2.58, 1.01–6.59) and living with fewer family members. Among participants with low educational level, the increased risk was associated with higher income, and with the highest and lowest occupational classes; adjusted odds ratio 2.74 (95%CI 1.12–6.70) for officers/teachers, 3.11 (1.61–6.01) for manual labourers/peasants.

Conclusions

Our findings of high incidence of dementia and increased risk among people having low education levels but high income suggest a more potential epidemic and burden of dementia populations in China. Maintaining social network and activities and reducing cardiovascular factors in late life could be integrated into current multi-faceted preventive strategies for curbing the epidemic of dementia.

Increasing prevalence of dementia among very old people

BACKGROUND

it is unknown whether the age-specific prevalence of dementia among the very old changes over time.

METHODS

this study compares the prevalence of dementia in two population-based cross-sectional samples of very old people in northern Sweden in 2000-02 and in 2005-07. In total, 430 individuals aged 85 and older (mean age 89.5 years, 71.4% women) were evaluated for dementia in the first cross-section and 465 individuals (mean age 90.2 years, 70.9% women) in the second. Trained assessors performed assessments and interviews during home visits and collected information from carers, relatives and medical records. Dementia was diagnosed according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition criteria.

RESULTS

the prevalence of dementia in the total sample was 26.5% in 2000-02 and 37.2% in 2005-07 (P = 0.001). There was also an increase in the prescription of different antihypertensive agents, antilipemic agents and choline esterase inhibitors, and more people had had heart surgery in the later sample.

CONCLUSIONS

in this sample of very old people, an increase in the age-specific prevalence of dementia was detected over 5 years. Possible reasons for this may be extended survival among individuals with risk factors for dementia and among individuals with established dementia.

Trends in prevalence of Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia in a Japanese community: the Hisayama Study

OBJECTIVE

To examine secular trends in the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VD) in a general Japanese population.

METHOD

Four cross-sectional examinations were conducted among residents of a Japanese community aged >or=65 in 1985, 1992, 1998 and 2005.

RESULTS

The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of all-cause dementia significantly increased with time (6.0% in 1985, 4.4% in 1992, 5.3% in 1998 and 8.3% in 2005; P for trend = 0.002). A similar trend was observed for AD (1.1%, 1.3%, 2.3% and 3.8% respectively; P for trend < 0.001), while the age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of VD and other/unclassified dementia showed J-shaped patterns (for VD: 2.3%, 1.5%, 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively, P for trend = 0.82; for other/unclassified dementia: 2.6%, 1.7%, 1.5% and 2.0%, P for trend = 0.26). The prevalence of AD was likely to increase with time from 1985 to 2005 among subjects aged 75 or older. The ratio of the prevalence of VD to that of AD decreased with time (2.1 in 1985, 1.2 in 1992, 0.7 in 1998 and 0.7 in 2005).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that the prevalence of all-cause dementia and AD significantly increased over the past two decades in the general Japanese population.