The Latin American cohabitation boom, 1970–2007

Does Couples' Division of Labor Influence Union Dissolution? Evidence from Parents of Young Children in Chile

We examined the role of couples' division of labor in the risk of union dissolution among parents of young children in Chile. We looked at whether specialization in the labor market and domestic work predicts union dissolution, and whether these associations differ by parents' marital status and mother's education. Using panel data from the Chilean Encuesta Longitudinal de Primera Infancia (ELPI) 2010 and 2012 waves, we found that specialization in the division of labor is associated with a lower probability of union dissolution among parents of young children in Chile. Unlike prior evidence for the US and the Netherlands, specialization is stabilizing for both married and cohabiting couples. However, there are differences by mother's education. Among mothers with high school education or less, specialization in the division of labor is associated with a lower probability of divorce and separation. On the other hand, among mothers with at least some college education, specialization has no advantage over equality in generating more union stability. Our findings shed light on how the interaction of couple's division of labor and socioeconomic disadvantage may create unequal economic prospects for women and their children following union dissolution.

Implications of the Theory of Basic Human Values for the Second Demographic Transition: Interdependence and Individualism in the Era of Self-Fulfillment

I examine the implications of a modern psychological theory of values for the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). The SDT derives its values theory and measurement from Maslow, who noted that resource-rich environments cause value shifts towards personal-focused growth values. However, Maslow has been replaced by the theory of basic human values (TBHV) which distinguishes person and social-focused growth values. This distinction has two important implications for the SDT. First, some individualistic and self-expressive values identified by the SDT are not growth but basic need motivated and therefore functions of resource-poor environments. Second, the TBHV values on interdependence and independence are strongly influenced by gender and reflect preferences for family and care or career. Therefore, these values can be used to address critiques of the SDT based on the stalled gender revolution. I show that distinguishing values as described in the TBHV can be useful for the SDT. I find that benevolence (interdependence) is positively and openness to change (autonomy/stimulation) is negatively related to marriage in the Netherlands using longitudinal panel data and discrete event history models.

Union Instability and Fertility: An International Perspective

In this article, we analyse the relationship between union instability and cumulated fertility among ever-partnered women in several regions across Europe and the Americas with different patterns of demographic behaviour in terms of fertility levels, union instability and fertility across partnerships. We hypothesise that the relationship between union dissolution and fertility might be less negative in contexts where repartnering is more prevalent. The analysis is performed on a large dataset of 25 countries, combining information from the Harmonised Histories of the Generation and Gender Programme with our own harmonisation of survey data from three Latin American countries. This allows for the inclusion of countries with differing prevalence of union instability as measured by (a) the proportion of women who separated by age 40, and (b) the proportion who repartnered by age 40. We first examine the prevalence of separation and repartnering during reproductive ages across regions, and we estimate the proportion of cumulated fertility attributable to unions of different ranks using a decomposition method. We then analyse the links between union instability and the number of children born by age 40 among ever-partnered and ever-repartnered women, using Poisson regression. Despite observing a high degree of heterogeneity in the proportions of births occurring in the context of repartnering both within and between regions, we find a pattern where a greater prevalence of repartnering by age 40 is accompanied by higher cumulated fertility in second or subsequent unions. Our multivariate findings reveal a negative statistical relationship between separation and cumulated fertility that is partially offset by repartnering in some contexts, and that the time spent in a union during the reproductive lifespan is a key determinant of cumulated fertility, regardless of national context and independently from age at union formation and union rank.

The changing social gradient of marriage and cohabitation in seven Latin American countries

While research shows that cohabitation has increased significantly among highly educated individuals in Latin America, much less is known about how the relationship between educational attainment and first union formation has changed over time and across the region's countries. Accordingly, this paper describes the changes across cohorts in the type of first union (marriage or cohabitation) entered by women from seven Latin American countries. It also analyzes trends in the relationship between women's education and the type of first union within and between these countries. Using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data, life tables, discrete-time event history models, and predicted probabilities were estimated to analyze the changing determinants of first-union formation. The results pointed to an overall increase in first-union cohabitation over time, with some important differences across countries. The multivariate analysis suggested that women's education influences the type and sequencing of the first union, with socioeconomically disadvantaged women increasingly likely to transition to early unions and enter cohabitation rather than marriage.

Is there a Chinese pattern of the second demographic transition?

The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) is a useful theoretical framework for explaining the recent trend in many countries of very low fertility combined with alternative union and family types. Although past studies have observed the SDT in many Western societies, whether it is applicable to East Asia remains unclear. Capitalizing on data from the Chinese Census and China Family Panel Studies, we provide estimates of key behavioral and ideational indicators of the SDT. We find that union formation in China has trended increasingly toward patterns commonly observed in the West, including delayed age of marriage and the common practice of premarital cohabitation. While having a lowest-low fertility rate, China has not experienced rising nonmarital childbirths, a key component of the SDT. However, we observe growing tolerance toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness. Marriages remain relatively stable in China, especially among couples with children. Taken together, our analysis suggests that typically coincident changes in patterns of family behavior associated with the SDT are not occurring simultaneously in China. Moreover, ideational changes are preceding behavioral changes, particularly in attitudes toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness. Our research suggests a different pattern of the SDT in China, which has been heavily influenced by Confucian culture.

First union formation among the children of immigrants: A population-wide study in Norway

Using Norwegian register data on the total population of individuals who were native-born or who immigrated prior to age 18, this study investigated differences in first union formation across migrant generations, global regions of origin, and gender. Cohabitation was the preferred route into partnerships for all groups, but it was most common among those with either one or two native-born parents. Results provided evidence of a generational gradient in marriage, whereby the native-born children of two immigrants and those immigrating in ages below 13 were less likely to marry than immigrants arriving as teens. Those native born with one native and one immigrant parent were least likely to marry, but most likely to cohabit. The children of immigrants originating from Asia, MENA and Eastern Europe were more marriage prone, whereas those of South-American and European origins were more cohabitation prone, than those originating from elsewhere. Women of most origins and generations more often married compared with men, and this gender gap was largest among those originating from MENA.

Mass Education and Women's Autonomy: Evidence From Latin America

Most low- and middle-income countries have implemented mass education reforms in the last few decades. Demographers and policymakers have posited that mass schooling would enhance women's autonomy and, therefore, accelerate population transformations in the Global South. However, gains in women's schooling may have unexpected implications for female autonomy in contexts where hypergamy norms-the ideal that men should marry down and women should marry up in education and other markers of status-are still dominant. This study addresses difficulties in evaluating the causal impact of additional education on women's autonomy by leveraging the timing of compulsory schooling reforms in three Latin American countries: Bolivia, Colombia, and Peru. Using Demographic and Health Surveys, I implement an instrumental variable design using random exposure to compulsory schooling laws as an instrument for years of education. Results show that for women who entered the school system as a result of compulsory reforms, further schooling decreased their level of autonomy in all countries-especially among women from rural Bolivia and Peru. Additional analyses suggest these results are explained by changes in the selection into schooling and the formation of unions defying hypergamy norms. Together, these findings highlight the importance of examining the returns to mass schooling considering population heterogeneity and the contextual meaning of women's education.

Family change and variation through the lens of family configurations in low- and middle-income countries

Using 254 Demographic and Health Surveys from 75 low- and middle-income countries, this study shows how the joint examination of family characteristics across rural and urban areas provides new insights for understanding global family change. We operationalise this approach by building family configurations: a set of interrelated features that describe different patterns of family formation and structure. These features include partnership (marriage/unions) regimes and their stability, gender relations, household composition and reproduction. Factorial and clustering techniques allow us to summarise these family features into three factorial axes and six discrete family configurations. We provide an in-depth description of these configurations, their spatial distribution and their changes over time. Global family change is uneven because it emerges from complex interplays between the relative steadiness of longstanding arrangements for forming families and organising gender relations, and the rapidly changing dynamics observed in the realms of fertility, contraception, and timing of family formation.

Gendered and Stratified Family Formation Trajectories in the Context of Latin American Migration, 1950 to 2000

The interdependence of migration and family formation has been studied extensively, but studies that consider the embeddedness of this interdependence within gender and class relations are less common. Most existing research on family and migration treats gender and social class as separate determinants of family events or transitions, instead of analyzing how the intersections of both shape full family formation trajectories, defined as all partnership and childbearing statuses throughout an individual life course. We overcome this gap by using an intersectionality framework to analyze trajectories of family formation and migration collected by the Mexican and Latin American Migration projects (1982–2016). Using retrospective information, we reconstruct full family formation and dissolution trajectories (i.e., individuals’ marital statuses and number of children born from ages 15 to 39) for 16,000 individuals and apply sequence and cluster analysis to define a six-category typology of ideal family formation trajectories. Next, we associate this typology with individuals’ sex, age at migration (domestic, international), and educational attainment as a way to measure individuals’ social class position. Our results suggest that the relationship between migration and typical family trajectories depends on the intersection of individuals’ social class and gender. Previous studies have neglected this intersection by overly focusing on the “average” migrant's experience. Migration research must acknowledge and account for migrants’ heterogenous experiences and pay more attention to how intersecting social categories mediate the relationship between migration and other demographic processes.

Migration, Marriage, and Cohabitation among Hispanic Immigrant Women in the United States

Prior research shows links between the timing of migration and family formation, particularly childbearing, among Hispanic immigrants in the United States, with implications for women's socioeconomic well-being. However, temporal connections between migration and union formation, particularly non-marital cohabiting unions, remain underexplored. As cohabiting unions have long coexisted with marriage in parts of Latin America, this omission may be particularly misrepresentative of the family formation strategies of Hispanic immigrants. Drawing on data from the National Survey of Family Growth (2011-2017), I examined the association between the timing of migration and entry into first marital or non-marital (cohabiting) union, treating marriage and cohabitation as competing events for first union type. Among women whose first union was non-marital, I also examined the relationship between migration and the likelihood of transitioning out of the non-marital union, either through marriage or union dissolution. Results showed that marriage formation was high the year of migration, and increased again only after 6 years post-migration, whereas cohabitation was high the year of migration and continued to increase with each period following migration. Furthermore, non-marital unions formed prior to migration were likely to transition to marriage or dissolve, while those formed after migration were likely to remain non-marital. These findings point to distinctions in the types of partnerships formed before and after migration and to the salience of non-marital unions for women who migrate unpartnered, demonstrating the need for further research on the socioeconomic integration and well-being of unmarried or cohabiting immigrant women, and the dynamic connections between migration, gender, and family.

Has demography witnessed a data revolution? Promises and pitfalls of a changing data ecosystem

Over the past 25 years, technological improvements that have made the collection, transmission, storage, and analysis of data significantly easier and more cost efficient have ushered in what has been described as the 'big data' era or the 'data revolution'. In the social sciences context, the data revolution has often been characterized in terms of increased volume and variety of data, and much excitement has focused on the growing opportunity to repurpose data that are the by-products of the digitalization of social life for research. However, many features of the data revolution are not new for demographers, who have long used large-scale population data and been accustomed to repurposing imperfect data not originally collected for research. Nevertheless, I argue that demography, too, has been affected by the data revolution, and the data ecosystem for demographic research has been significantly enriched. These developments have occurred across two dimensions. The first involves the augmented granularity, variety, and opportunities for linkage that have bolstered the capabilities of 'old' big population data sources, such as censuses, administrative data, and surveys. The second involves the growing interest in and use of 'new' big data sources, such as 'digital traces' generated through internet and mobile phone use, and related to this, the emergence of 'digital demography'. These developments have enabled new opportunities and offer much promise moving forward, but they also raise important ethical, technical, and conceptual challenges for the field.

[Household structure of older persons in Latin America and the CaribbeanA estrutura de moradia de idosos na América Latina e no Caribe]

Objetivo.

Analizar las pautas de convivencia de la población de 60 años o más que reside en hogares privados en 23 países de América Latina y el Caribe.

Métodos.

Estudio transversal realizado con base en los microdatos censales más recientes disponibles en Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS)-International, la mayoría de ellos correspondientes a la ronda censal de 2010. Se calcularon y se compararon, para cada país y por sexo, el número medio de convivientes, su distribución por edad y las relaciones de parentesco que se establecen entre ellos. Se compararon, por país y por sexo, el promedio de convivientes en función del nivel de escolaridad y del estado civil.

Resultados.

El promedio del número de personas con las que convive la gente mayor difiere entre países. Oscila entre dos personas en países como Argentina, Puerto Rico y Uruguay, y cuatro o más personas en países como Honduras y Nicaragua. Esta diferencia resulta de la mayor o menor presencia de personas jóvenes, hijos y otros familiares en el hogar. El número de convivientes disminuye con el mayor nivel de escolaridad, salvo en Cuba y en Puerto Rico, donde no se observan diferencias. En general, las mujeres mayores viven en hogares con menos personas que los hombres, aunque no es el caso de las personas solteras o divorciadas.

Conclusiones.

La convivencia con hijos y otros familiares es habitual en la Región. Las diferencias entre países y por nivel educativo muestran que la familia juega un papel importante en la protección social de la vejez en los países menos desarrollados y en los grupos menos escolarizados.

The association between spouses' earnings and trends in income inequality in Brazil (1993-2015)

In this paper, we investigate how the diffusion of dual-earner couples has affected aggregate levels of inequality in Brazil. More specifically, we analyze trends in the association between spouses' earnings and assess their implications for earnings inequality among couples from 1993 to 2015. For this purpose, we use log-linear models to distinguish three components of the association between spouses' earnings: a) the correlation between spouses' earnings among dual-earner couples; b) the relationship between husbands' earnings and wives' labor force participation; and c) the proportion of dual-earner couples. Counterfactual simulations allow us to estimate how inequality would change if the trends in the association between spouses' earnings and each of its components had been different. We show that changes in the gradient of wives' employment and compositional effects related to the increasing prevalence of dual-earner couples contributed to limit the decline in inequality over the studied period.

The Holistic Health Status of Chinese Homosexual and Bisexual Adults: A Scoping Review

Background: Same-sex marriage is currently not legalized in China, despite the considerably large number of homosexual and bisexual Chinese populations. At the same time, their holistic health status remains unclear. This is the first scoping review conducted to comprehensively examine all the available literature and map existing evidence on the holistic health of homosexual and bisexual Chinese. Methods: This scoping review used the framework of Arksey and O'Malley and followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis extension for scoping reviews (PRISMA-ScR). A comprehensive search strategy was carried out across 20 English (EN) and Chinese (both traditional and simplified) electronic databases from January 1, 2001, to May 31, 2020. Two reviewers conducted the reference screening and study selection independently and consulted a third senior reviewer whenever a consensus must be achieved. Data extraction was conducted using a structured data form based on the Cochrane template, after which a narrative synthesis of the findings was performed. Results: A total of 2,879 references were included in the final analysis, with 2,478 research articles, 167 reviews, and 234 theses. Regarding the study populations, the vast majority of studies centered on men only (96.46%), especially men who have sex with men (MSM). Only 1.32% of the studies targeted female sexual minorities. The geographical distribution of all research sites was uneven, with most of them being conducted in mainland China (95.96%), followed by Hong Kong (2.05%), Taiwan (2.02%), and Macau (0.06%). Regarding the specific study focus in terms of the health domain, around half of the studies (45.93%) focused on sexual health only, and an additional quarter of the studies (24.15%) investigated both sexual health and social well-being. Meanwhile, the studies focusing on mental health only accounted for approximately 15% of the total. Conclusions: This scoping review revealed that previous research focused more on male than female sexual minorities, on disease-centered surveys than person-centered interventions, and investigations on negative health conditions than positive health promotion. Therefore, investigations centered on the female sexual minorities and corresponding person-centered interventions are highly needed. Review Registration: The protocol of this review has been registered within Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/82r7z) on April 27, 2020.

Partnership transitions among the children of immigrants in Norway: The role of partner choice

The family life courses of immigrants and their descendants have been widely studied as indicators of societal integration. But largely absent are investigations into the role of cohabitation in the family lives of these subpopulations. Using Norwegian register data on individuals who were either native born or who immigrated before age 18, we analyse the formation of first cohabiting and marital unions. Next, we compare associations between endogamous or exogamous partner choice and transitions from these first unions. Results showed that the children of immigrants were less likely to cohabit endogamously, but overall more likely to cohabit exogamously and to marry than Norwegians without a migration background. Endogamous migrant-background cohabiting unions were least likely to dissolve, whereas cohabiting couples involving one or two majority partners were less marriage prone than endogamous migrant-background couples. Similarly, among those married, endogamous migrant-background couples were less likely to divorce than their exogamous counterparts.

The effects of growing-season drought on young women's life course transitions in a sub-Saharan context

In spite of the vast importance of weather shocks for population processes, limited work has investigated the micro-level processes through which weather shocks influence the transition to adulthood in low-income contexts. This paper provides a conceptual overview and empirical investigation of how weather shocks impact the timing, sequencing, and characteristics of young women's life course transitions in low-income rural settings. Drawing on the case of Malawi, we combine repeated cross-sections of georeferenced Demographic and Health Survey data with georeferenced climate and crop calendar data to assess how growing-season drought shocks affect young women's life course transitions. Discrete-time event history analyses indicate that in this context, exposure to growing-season drought in adolescence has an accelerating effect on young women's transitions into first unions-both marriage and cohabitation-and into first births within unions.

Fatalistic Beliefs and Migration Behaviors: A Study of Ideational Demography in Nepal

We investigate influences of fatalistic beliefs on domestic and international migration in Nepal, positing that fatalistic beliefs may affect decisions to migrate and where to locate. Fatalism is the belief that human outcomes are preordained by forces outside of one's power and control. Because of its relationship with effort and innovation, fatalism may be an important factor in people's decision to migrate and destination choice. We expect that fatalistic beliefs encourage or discourage migration depending upon societal expectations to migrate and the relative ease of migration to different destinations. Our empirical analysis relies on migration histories of respondents from the Chitwan Valley Family Study. Results from multinomial logistic regression models provide evidence that fatalistic beliefs increase overall migration propensity and has both positive and negative destination-specific effects. Fatalistic beliefs increase Nepalis' odds of migrating to destinations that are, relatively speaking, easier to access, but decrease the odds of migrating to destinations with higher barriers to entry.

Migration, Family Formation and Fertility in the Americas

In many low- and medium-income countries that are the traditional sources of international migrants, total fertility rates have dropped to levels at or near replacement. In this context of low fertility, we expect migration’s effects on fertility to operate primarily through marital timing and marital stability. We examine the effects of international migration on age at first marriage, union dissolution, timing of first birth, and completed fertility, using retrospective life-history data collected in Mexico and eight other Latin American countries by the Mexican Migration Project (MMP) and the Latin American Migration Project (LAMP). Using discrete-time hazards and Poisson regression models, we find clear evidence that early migration experience results in delayed marriage, delayed first birth, and a higher rate of marital dissolution. We also find evidence among women that cumulative international migration experience is associated with fewer births and that the estimated effects of migration experience are attenuated after taking into account age at union formation and husbands’ prior union experiences. As fertility levels in migrant origin and destination countries continue on their path toward convergence, migrant fertility below native fertility may become more common due to migration’s disruptive effects on marital timing and marital stability and the selection of divorced or separated adults into migration.

The second demographic transition, 1986–2020: sub-replacement fertility and rising cohabitation—a global update

The article considers the evolution of two “Second Demographic Tradition” (SDT) core characteristics: fertility postponement and the rise of cohabitation, with particular attention being given to the first two decades of the new century. It can be considered as the sequel to the concise overview of the SDT published earlier in the US Proceedings of the National Academy (PNAS) (Lesthaeghe, 2014).

In the first section, three optimistic views concerning the evolution of fertility are considered: (i) rises due to the end of postponement, (ii) rises connected with advancing human development and (iii) rises associated with advancing gender equality. The focus in this section is mainly but not exclusively on the European experience and its large degree of variation in fertility patterns. It is argued that these three optimistic predictions of sustained fertility rises are mainly based on observations prior to 2010, with too much weight being given to four Nordic countries and too little to other Western European countries with very similar fertility levels. However, these expectations have been thwarted during the second decade, even in the presence of advances in human development and/or gender equality. Hence, the original SDT prediction of 1986 of sustained sub-replacement fertility still holds after 35 years. We expect this to continue during the third decade as well. Furthermore, single-factor explanations are not likely to do justice to far more intricate situations that are responsive to varying structural and ideational influences.

In the second section, the evolution of cohabitation is traced in Europe, the USA and Canada, the Latin American countries, three East Asian populations and selected sub-Saharan cases. At the onset, cohabitation can start either from a SDT basis among the better educated or among the poorer classes following a pattern of disadvantage (POD). It is argued that the feature of cohabitation spreads rapidly among all social classes and across all education groups and that in the process of increasing cohabitation, the POD versus SDT argument loses its significance. On a global scale, the rise in cohabitation is contingent on two dimensions: (i) contrasting historical patterns of kinship organisation, including the position of women, and (ii) further advances of the “ethics revolution”, indicating the growing dominance of individual autonomy over traditional societal norms. As a result, no breakthroughs in the near future are expected in countries with a Muslim or Hindu tradition in which no such major cultural shifts have occurred so far.

Influences of Material Aspirations on Migration

In this article, we investigate the influences of material aspirations on migration in Nepal, positing that material aspirations may have important influences on decisions to migrate and where to locate. We discuss a theoretical model explaining how these aspirations might be key influences in the migration decision. Using detailed continuous migration histories from the 2008-2012 Chitwan Valley Family Study, we estimate logistic and alternative-specific conditional logit models to examine how material aspirations in Nepal influence migration rates and destinations. Our empirical analyses provide strong evidence that material aspirations have large effects on overall rates of migration and affect destination-specific migration rates, particularly for relatively wealthy Western and Asian destinations. We also show an interaction effect between material aspirations and destination-specific expected earnings in influencing people's migration choices. It is the people with high aspirations who migrate to destinations with high earning potentials.

Family Change in Global Perspective: How and Why Family Systems Change

Changes in family systems that have occurred over the past half century throughout the Western world are now spreading across the globe to nations that are experiencing economic development, technological change, and shifts in cultural beliefs. Traditional family systems are adapting in different ways to a series of conditions that forced shifts in all Western nations. In this paper, I examine the causes and consequences of global family change, introducing a recently funded project using the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and U.S. Census Bureau data to chart the pace and pattern of changes in marriage and family systems in low- and middle-income nations.

Compromiso, Autorregulación e Intimidad en Parejas en Cohabitación: un Estudio Exploratorio en Bogotá, Colombia

Este estudio exploratorio examinó los efectos de razones para cohabitar, residencia antes de cohabitar, y duración de la relación en la autorregulación relacional, compromiso, e intimidad en uniones consensuales en Bogotá, Colombia. Una muestra autoseleccionada de 60 individuos (26 hombres y 34 mujeres) respondieron A cuestionarios de autorreporte en línea. Los resultados del MANOVA indicaron efectos de tres interacciones significativas (Sexo*Razones; Sexo*Residencia; Residencia*Razones) sobre la autorregulación. La duración de la relación tuvo un efecto significativo en el compromiso de tipo restricciones. Se presentan las implicaciones de estos resultados tanto para la investigación sobre cohabitación, como para las intervenciones clínicas para parejas que cohabitan.

Rethinking and Revising Goode's Contribution to Global Family Change

This essay provides a comprehensive overview of William J. Goode's contribution to the study of global family and social change. I begin by describing Goode's theoretical perspectives and outlining his theses dating back to the 1960s. I then provide an assessment of where and why some of his predictions proved wrong and elaborate on what we have learnt on changes in families at the global level over the past half century. Lastly, I speculate on how Goode would rethink his arguments nowadays in light of fifty years of new evidence and scholarly developments - both theoretical and methodological. In so doing, I highlight shortcomings of current approaches and outline directions for future family research and theorizing.

Global Family Change: Persistent Diversity with Development

This article provides a broad empirical overview of the relationship between family change and socioeconomic development drawing on 30-plus years of Demographic and Health Surveys data from 3.5 million respondents across 84 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We conduct two sets of analyses. First, we document global and regional-level associations between the Human Development Index (HDI) and novel indicators reflecting multi-dimensional family change. Second, we use methods from the growth convergence literature to examine whether-and in which domains-there is evidence of cross-country convergence in family indicators over levels of development. We show that families in LMICs have transformed in multiple ways, changing differently across domains, world regions, and genders. Fertility, intra-couple decision-making, and women's life-course timing indicators are strongly associated with HDI, yet cross-country convergence is limited to the latter domain. Marriage, cohabitation, household structure, and men's life-course timing indicators are more weakly associated with HDI, and span a broad spectrum of convergence dynamics ranging from divergence to modest convergence. We describe this scenario as "persistent diversity with development," and shed light on the underlying regional heterogeneity-driven primarily by sub-Saharan Africa.

POST-TRANSITIONAL FERTILITY: THE ROLE OF CHILDBEARING POSTPONEMENT IN FUELLING THE SHIFT TO LOW AND UNSTABLE FERTILITY LEVELS

This study discusses fertility trends and variation in countries that completed the transition from high to around-replacement fertility in the 1950s to 1980s, especially in Europe, East Asia and North America, and summarizes the key relevant findings for those countries with a more recent experience of fertility decline towards replacement level. A central finding is that there is no obvious theoretical or empirical threshold around which period fertility tends to stabilize. Period fertility rates usually continue falling once the threshold of replacement fertility is crossed, often to very low levels. While cohort fertility rates frequently stabilize or change gradually, period fertility typically remains unstable. This instability also includes marked upturns and reversals in Total Fertility Rates (TFRs), as experienced in many countries in Europe in the early 2000s. The long-lasting trend towards delayed parenthood is central for understanding diverse, low and unstable post-transitional fertility patterns. In many countries in Europe this shift to a late childbearing pattern has negatively affected the TFR for more than four decades. Many emerging post-transitional countries and regions are likely to experience a similar shift over the next two to three decades, with a depression of their TFRs to very low levels.

The Stability Paradox: Why Expansion of Women's Education Has Not Delayed Early Union Formation or Childbearing in Latin America

Despite substantial improvements in women's education, the age at which Latin American women marry (cohabit) or become mothers for the first time has barely decreased over the past four decades. We refer to this as the "stability paradox." We examine the relationship between years of schooling and transitions to first union or child, analyzing retrospective information from 50 cohorts of women born between 1940 and 1989 in 12 Latin American countries. Absolute and relative measures of schooling are compared. Data is drawn from 38 Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) conducted between 1986 and 2012 in these countries. Results show that expected postponement in family transitions due to educational expansion was offset by a rise in union formation and childbearing within strata of absolute education, but stayed approximately constant within strata of relative education. The relative measure of education retains the stratifying power of education but neutralizes any effect attached to a specific number of years of schooling and the learning skills associated with them. This is consistent with the idea that access to education in Latin America reproduces existing patterns of socioeconomic advantage, rather than creating a more equitable distribution of learning opportunities and outcomes.

Household Structure and Child Education in Cambodia

We analyze the effects of household structure on education in Cambodia. Consistent evidence documents that residence with both biological parents benefits children's education in Western countries. Elsewhere, the issue is gaining more attention with the growing number of "left-behind children" due to adult migration and, possibly, changes in family behavior, but the extant record is both thinner and more contrasted. Controlling for the presence of grandparents and some household characteristics, we find children residing with both biological parents are more likely to be enrolled in school, in the appropriate grade for their age, and literate than those living with only one parent. The effect sizes appear comparable to those in most Western countries, but the effects shrink or even disappear when grandparents are present. The results for children not residing with either parent are mixed, suggesting negative effects for some children might be blurred by positive selection for some others.

SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF LOW FERTILITY IN BRAZIL

An increasing number of developing countries are experiencing below replacement fertility rates. Although the factors associated with low fertility in developed countries have been widely explored in the literature, studies of low fertility in middle- and low-income countries continue to be rare. To help fill this gap, Brazil was used as a case study to assess whether human development, gender equality and the ability of mothers with young children to work are associated with the likelihood of married or cohabiting women to have a child. For this purpose, multilevel logistic regressions were estimated using the 1991, 2000 and 2010 Brazilian Demographic Censuses. It was found that human development was negatively associated with fertility in the three periods analysed. Gender equality and the ability of mothers with young children to work were positively associated with the odds of having higher order births in Brazil in 2000 and 2010. In 1991, these variables were not associated with higher order births, and gender equality was negatively associated with first births. The positive association found in 2000 and 2010 may constitute a reversal of the relationship that in all likelihood prevailed earlier in the demographic transition when gender equality was most likely negatively correlated with fertility levels.

THE SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY: A Review and Appraisal

References to the second demographic transition (SDT) concept/theoretical framework have increased dramatically in the last two decades. The SDT predicts unilinear change toward very low fertility and a diversity of union and family types. The primary driver of these changes is a powerful, inevitable and irreversible shift in attitudes and norms in the direction of greater individual freedom and self-actualization. First, we describe the origin of this framework and its evolution over time. Second, we review the empirical fit of the framework to major changes in demographic and family behavior in the U.S., the West, and beyond. As has been the case for other unilinear, developmental theories of demographic/family change, the SDT failed to predict many contemporary patterns of change/difference. Finally, we review previous critiques and identify fundamental weaknesses of this perspective, and provide brief comparisons to selected alternative approaches.

Couple and family relationships in Latin American social comparative studies

Couple and family relationships have changed in different aspects in the recent history of Latin America. This paper reviewed comparative studies on couple and family relationships in Latin America published between 2001 and 2015. These studies used data from different countries. The contents analyzed in these investigations were divided in five main themes: (a) family size, structure and diversity; (b) couple and family internal dynamics, including couple and family formation and dissolution, gender and social roles, social care and protection, and couple and family violence; (c) couple, family and health; (d) couple, family and education; and, (e) couple, family and economy. Although comparative studies in Latin America are based mainly on data from national censuses and have a demographic approach, the comparative perspective is proposed as an important mean for the integration of diverse disciplines and the development of international cooperation in studies about couple and family in Latin America. Macro and micro perspectives, as well as quantitative and qualitative data, may complement each other and contribute to a more integrated knowledge about couple and family relationships in the region. Couple and family internal structure and dynamics are related to Latin American society and culture in diverse ways. Some possibilities and suggestions for future investigations are also presented.

Performative family: homosexuality, marriage and intergenerational dynamics in China

Using in-depth interview data on nominal marriages - legal marriages between a gay man and a lesbian to give the appearance of heterosexuality - this paper develops the concept of performative family to explain the processes through which parents and their adult children negotiate and resolve disagreements in relation to marriage decisions in post-socialist China. We identify three mechanisms - network pressure, a revised discourse of filial piety and resource leverage - through which parents influence their gay offspring's decision to turn to nominal marriage. We also delineate six strategies, namely minimizing network participation, changing expectations, making partial concessions, drawing the line, delaying decisions and ending the marriage, by which gay people in nominal marriages attempt to meet parental expectations while simultaneously retaining a degree of autonomy. Through these interactions, we argue that Chinese parents and their gay adult children implicitly and explicitly collaborate to perform family, emphasizing the importance of formally meeting society's expectations about marriage rather than substantively yielding to its demands. We also argue that the performative family is a pragmatic response to the tension between the persistent centrality of family and marriage and the rising tide of individualism in post-socialist China. We believe that our findings highlight the specific predicament of homosexual people. They also shed light on the more general dynamics of intergenerational negotiation because there is evidence that the mechanisms used by parents to exert influence may well be similar between gay and non-gay people.

THE IPUMS COLLABORATION: INTEGRATING AND DISSEMINATING THE WORLD'S POPULATION MICRODATA

The Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) International partnership is a project of the Minnesota Population Center and national statistical agencies, dedicated to collecting and distributing census data from around the world. IPUMS is currently disseminating data on over a half-billion persons enumerated in more than 250 census samples from 79 countries. The data series includes information on a broad range of population characteristics, including fertility, nuptiality, life-course transitions, migration, labor-force participation, occupational structure, education, ethnicity, and household composition. This paper describes sample characteristics and data structure; the data integration process including the creation of constructed family interrelationship variables; the flexible dissemination system that enables researchers to build customized extracts of pooled census samples across time and place; and some of the most significant findings that have emerged from the database.

The making of family values: developmental idealism in Gansu, China

This paper examines the role of developmental thinking in the making of family values. We analyze survey data collected from Gansu Province in China with regular and multilevel logit models. The results show that individuals' endorsement of neolocal residence, self-choice marriage, gender egalitarianism, late marriage for women, and low fertility depends on the conjunction of preference for development and beliefs in its association with those family attributes, which we term developmental idealism associational evaluation. Furthermore, such impact of developmental thinking on family values holds robust in the presence of indigenous ideational forces, in this case Islamic religion. Although Islam influences family values in the opposite direction than developmental ideas do, the effect of Developmental Idealism associational evaluation does not differ significantly between Muslims and non-Muslims.

Developmental Idealism: The Cultural Foundations of World Development Programs

This paper extends theory and research concerning cultural models of development beyond family and demographic matters to a broad range of additional factors, including government, education, human rights, daily social conventions, and religion. Developmental idealism is a cultural model-a set of beliefs and values-that identifies the appropriate goals of development and the ends for achieving these goals. It includes beliefs about positive cause and effect relationships among such factors as economic growth, educational achievement, health, and political governance, as well as strong values regarding many attributes, including economic growth, education, small families, gender equality, and democratic governance. This cultural model has spread from its origins among the elites of northwest Europe to elites and ordinary people throughout the world. Developmental idealism has become so entrenched in local, national, and global social institutions that it has now achieved a taken-for-granted status among many national elites, academics, development practitioners, and ordinary people around the world. We argue that developmental idealism culture has been a fundamental force behind many cultural clashes within and between societies, and continues to be an important cause of much global social change. We suggest that developmental idealism should be included as a causal factor in theories of human behavior and social change.

The second demographic transition: a concise overview of its development

This article gives a concise overview of the theoretical development of the concept of the "second demographic transition" since it was coined in 1986, its components, and its applicability, first to European populations and subsequently also to non-European societies as well. Both the demographic and the societal contrasts between the first demographic transition (FDT) and the second demographic transition (SDT) are highlighted. Then, the major criticisms of the SDT theory are outlined, and these issues are discussed in the light of the most recent developments in Europe, the United States, the Far East, and Latin America. It turns out that three major SDT patterns have developed and that these evolutions are contingent on much older systems of kinship and family organization.

Big microdata for population research

This article describes an explosion in the availability of individual-level population data. By 2018, demographic researchers will have access to over 2 billion records of accessible microdata from over 100 countries, dating from 1703 to the present. Another 2 to 4 billion records will be available through restricted-access data enclaves. These new resources represent a new kind of data that will enable transformative research on demographic and economic change and the spatial organization of society.

A Geography of Unmarried Cohabitation in the Americas

BACKGROUND

In the context of increasing cohabitation and growing demand for understanding the driving forces behind the cohabitation boom, most analyses have been carried out at a national level, not accounting for regional heterogeneity within countries.

OBJECTIVE

This paper presents the geography of unmarried cohabitation in the Americas. We offer a large-scale, cross-national perspective together with small-area estimates of cohabitation. We decided to produce this map because: (i) geography unveils spatial heterogeneity and challenges explanatory frameworks that may work at the international level but have low explanatory power in regard to intra-national variation. (ii) we argue that historical pockets of cohabitation can still be identified by examining the current geography of cohabitation. (iii) our map is a first step toward understanding whether the recent increase in cohabitation is an intensification of pre-existing traditions or whether it has different roots that also imply a new geography.

METHODS

Census microdata from 39 countries and 19,000 local units have been pulled together to map the prevalence of cohabitation among women.

RESULTS

The results show inter- and intra-national regional contrasts. The highest rates of cohabitation are found in areas of Central America, the Caribbean, Colombia and Peru. The lowest rates are mainly found in the United States and Mexico. In all countries the spatial autocorrelation statistics indicates substantial spatial heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results raise the question as to which forces have shaped these patterns and remind us that such forces need to be taken into account to understand recent patterns, particularly increases, in cohabitation.