Climate-driven range shifts explain the distribution of extant gene pools and predict future loss of unique lineages in a marine brown alga

Water relations and photosystem II efficiency of the intertidal macroalga Fucus virsoides

Intertidal macroalgae are sessile poikilohydric organisms exposed to desiccation stress during emersion. Water relations parameters are useful tools to evaluate an organism's capacity to withstand water scarcity conditions, but such information on marine intertidal macroalgae is scarce. We assessed the water relations of the intertidal relict Fucus virsoides, the unique Fucus species endemic to the Mediterranean. We combined measurements of water potential (Ψ) parameters derived from pressure-volume curves and chlorophyll a fluorescence (Fv/Fm) in juvenile and adult thalli sampled in three different dates between March and April 2023. F. virsoides exhibited remarkable water stress tolerance, as evidenced by the low water potential at turgor loss point (Ψtlp, -7.0 MPa on average), and the maintenance of high Fv/Fm at low water potentials indicating a prolonged maintenance of healthy physiological status. While no differences were observed between growth stages, Ψtlp, capacitance (C) and the bulk modulus of elasticity (ε) varied significantly according to the sampling dates, whereas the osmotic potential at full turgor did not significantly change. Ψ measured on thalli collected after a typical prolonged emersion period was markedly lower (-12.3 MPa on average) than the estimated Ψtlp, suggesting that the population is frequently undergoing turgor loss. Further investigations are required to determine environmental tolerance ranges based on water status characteristics to enhance our understanding of F. virsoides responses and vulnerability to climate change, thus providing insight into the possible causes of its widespread decline.

A global dataset of demosponge distribution records

Biodiversity information in the form of species occurrence records is key for monitoring and predicting current and future biodiversity patterns, as well as for guiding conservation and management strategies. However, the reliability and accuracy of this information are frequently undermined by taxonomic and spatial errors. Additionally, biodiversity information facilities often share data in diverse incompatible formats, precluding seamless integration and interoperability. We provide a comprehensive quality-controlled dataset of occurrence records of the Class Demospongiae, which comprises 81% of the entire Porifera phylum. Demosponges are ecologically significant as they structure rich habitats and play a key role in nutrient cycling within marine benthic communities. The dataset aggregates occurrence records from multiple sources, employs dereplication and taxonomic curation techniques, and is flagged for potentially incorrect records based on expert knowledge regarding each species' bathymetric and geographic distributions. It yields 417,626 records of 1,816 accepted demosponge species (of which 321,660 records of 1,495 species are flagged as potentially correct), which are provided under the FAIR principle of Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability and Reusability in the Darwin Core Standard. This dataset constitutes the most up-to-date baseline for studying demosponge diversity at the global scale, enabling researchers to examine biodiversity patterns (e.g., species richness and endemicity), and forecast potential distributional shifts under future scenarios of climate change.

Multiple genetic sources facilitate the northward range expansion of an intertidal oyster along China's coast

Coastal artificial structures on the former mudflats provide available habitats for the rocky intertidal species which can establish new populations in these emerging habitats over their former distribution range limits. As a former southern species, the oyster Crassostrea sikamea has become a pioneer and rapidly invaded the artificial shorelines in northern China. We used a seascape genomics approach to investigate the population structure and genetic sources of C. sikamea on the coastal artificial structures, which is crucial for understanding the genetic mechanisms driving species distribution range expansion and invasion pathway of intertidal species. Five C. sikamea populations, including two artificial substrate populations (WGZ and ZAP), one oyster reef population (LS), and two natural rocky shore populations (ZS and XM), were measured using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) obtained from double digest restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-Seq). Redundancy analyses (RDA) were implemented for investigating the relationship between local temperature variables and the temperature adaptability of C. sikamea. Genetic diversity, direction and strength of gene flow, and population structure all revealed that the LS and ZS populations were the genetic sources for the oyster populations on the emerging northern coastal artificial structures. Results of RDA showed that there were different adaptive potentials for northern and southern populations to local temperature variables and the oyster reef population which frequently suffers from heat stress owned high heat adaptability. The ZS population as a genetic source nearby the Yangtze River estuary provided mass larvae for the northern populations, and the other genetic source, the heat-tolerant LS population, in the oyster reef played an important role in the post-settlement success by providing preadapted genotypes. These results highlight the importance of multiple sources with divergent adaptative capabilities for biological invasion, and also emphasize the importance of the oyster reef in coastal biodiversity and conservation.

Past climate-driven range shifts structuring intraspecific biodiversity levels of the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) at global scales

The paradigm of past climate-driven range shifts structuring the distribution of marine intraspecific biodiversity lacks replication in biological models exposed to comparable limiting conditions in independent regions. This may lead to confounding effects unlinked to climate drivers. We aim to fill in this gap by asking whether the global distribution of intraspecific biodiversity of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) is explained by past climate changes occurring across the two hemispheres. We compared the species' population genetic diversity and structure inferred with microsatellite markers, with range shifts and long-term refugial regions predicted with species distribution modelling (SDM) from the last glacial maximum (LGM) to the present. The broad antitropical distribution of Macrocystis pyrifera is composed by six significantly differentiated genetic groups, for which current genetic diversity levels match the expectations of past climate changes. Range shifts from the LGM to the present structured low latitude refugial regions where genetic relics with higher and unique diversity were found (particularly in the Channel Islands of California and in Peru), while post-glacial expansions following ~ 40% range contraction explained extensive regions with homogenous reduced diversity. The estimated effect of past climate-driven range shifts was comparable between hemispheres, largely demonstrating that the distribution of intraspecific marine biodiversity can be structured by comparable evolutionary forces across the global ocean. Additionally, the differentiation and endemicity of regional genetic groups, confers high conservation value to these localized intraspecific biodiversity hotspots of giant kelp forests.

A dataset of cold-water coral distribution records

Species distribution data are key for monitoring present and future biodiversity patterns and informing conservation and management strategies. Large biodiversity information facilities often contain spatial and taxonomic errors that reduce the quality of the provided data. Moreover, datasets are frequently shared in varying formats, inhibiting proper integration and interoperability. Here, we provide a quality-controlled dataset of the diversity and distribution of cold-water corals, which provide key ecosystem services and are considered vulnerable to human activities and climate change effects. We use the common term cold-water corals to refer to species of the orders Alcyonacea, Antipatharia, Pennatulacea, Scleractinia, Zoantharia of the subphylum Anthozoa, and order Anthoathecata of the class Hydrozoa. Distribution records were collated from multiple sources, standardized using the Darwin Core Standard, dereplicated, taxonomically corrected and flagged for potential vertical and geographic distribution errors based on peer-reviewed published literature and expert consulting. This resulted in 817,559 quality-controlled records of 1,170 accepted species of cold-water corals, openly available under the FAIR principle of Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability and Reusability of data. The dataset represents the most updated baseline for the global cold-water coral diversity, and it can be used by the broad scientific community to provide insights into biodiversity patterns and their drivers, identify regions of high biodiversity and endemicity, and project potential redistribution under future climate change. It can also be used by managers and stakeholders to guide biodiversity conservation and prioritization actions against biodiversity loss.

A low-latitude species pump: Peripheral isolation, parapatric speciation and mating-system evolution converge in a marine radiation

Geologically recent radiations can shed light on speciation processes, but incomplete lineage sorting and introgressive gene flow render accurate evolutionary reconstruction and interpretation challenging. Independently evolving metapopulations of low dispersal taxa may provide an additional level of phylogeographic information, given sufficiently broad sampling and genome-wide sequencing. Evolution in the marine brown algal genus Fucus in the south-eastern North Atlantic was shaped by Quaternary climate-driven range shifts. Over this timescale, divergence and speciation occurred against a background of expansion-contraction cycles from multiple refugia, together with mating-system shifts from outcrossing (dioecy) to selfing hermaphroditism. We tested the hypothesis that peripheral isolation of range edge (dioecious) F. vesiculosus led to parapatric speciation and radiation of hermaphrodite lineages. Species tree methods using 876 single-copy nuclear genes and extensive geographic coverage produced conflicting topologies with respect to geographic clades of F. vesiculosus. All methods, however, revealed a new and early diverging hermaphrodite species, Fucus macroguiryi sp. nov. Both the multispecies coalescent and polymorphism-aware models (in contrast to concatenation) support sequential paraphyly in F. vesiculosus resulting from distinct evolutionary processes. Our results support (1) peripheral isolation of the southern F. vesiculosus clade prior to parapatric speciation and radiation of hermaphrodite lineages-a "low-latitude species pump". (2) Directional introgressive gene flow into F. vesiculosus around the present-day secondary contact zone (sympatric-allopatric boundary) between dioecious/hermaphrodite lineages as hermaphrodites expanded northwards, supported by concordance analysis and statistical tests of introgression. (3) Species boundaries in the extensive sympatric range are probably maintained by reproductive system (selfing in hermaphrodites) and reinforcement.

Phylogeography of a canopy-forming kelp, Eisenia bicyclis (Laminariales, Phaeophyceae), based on a genome-wide sequencing analysis

Analyses of phylogeographic patterns and genetic diversity provide fundamental information for the management and conservation of species. However, little is published about these patterns in Japanese kelp species. In this study, we conducted phylogeographic analyses of a canopy-forming kelp, Eisenia bicyclis, based on genome-wide SNPs identified by ddRAD-seq. We obtained 1,299 SNPs for 76 samples from nine localities across the distribution. STRUCTURE, NeighborNet, and discriminant analysis of principal components consistently showed high genetic differentiation among the Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific, and Sea of Japan coastal regions. Relatively strong gene flow was detected only within populations in the Eastern Pacific and in the Sea of Japan. Genetic diversity and genetic uniqueness were high in the Central Pacific and low in the Sea of Japan. These results suggest that there were at least three independent refugia corresponding to the three regions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Furthermore, relatively larger populations in the Central Pacific and smaller populations in the Sea of Japan have been maintained in the demographic history from before the LGM to the present. These phylogeographic histories were supported by an Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis. From a conservation genetics perspective, the loss of southern populations in the Central Pacific would greatly reduce the total genetic diversity of the species. Southern populations in the Sea of Japan, which have relatively low genetic diversity, may be highly vulnerable to environmental change, such as heat waves and increased feeding. Therefore, careful monitoring and conservation are needed in the two regions.

The microbiome of the habitat-forming brown alga Fucus vesiculosus (Phaeophyceae) has similar cross-Atlantic structure that reflects past and present drivers1

Latitudinal diversity gradients have provided many insights into species differentiation and community processes. In the well-studied intertidal zone, however, little is known about latitudinal diversity in microbiomes associated with habitat-forming hosts. We investigated microbiomes of Fucus vesiculosus because of deep understanding of this model system and its latitudinally large, cross-Atlantic range. Given multiple effects of photoperiod, we predicted that cross-Atlantic microbiomes of the Fucus microbiome would be similar at similar latitudes and correlate with environmental factors. We found that community structure and individual amplicon sequencing variants (ASVs) showed distinctive latitudinal distributions, but alpha diversity did not. Latitudinal differentiation was mostly driven by ASVs that were more abundant in cold temperate to subarctic (e.g., Granulosicoccus_t3260, Burkholderia/Caballeronia/Paraburkholderia_t8371) or warm temperate (Pleurocapsa_t10392) latitudes. Their latitudinal distributions correlated with different humidity, tidal heights, and air/sea temperatures, but rarely with irradiance or photoperiod. Many ASVs in potentially symbiotic genera displayed novel phylogenetic biodiversity with differential distributions among tissues and regions, including closely related ASVs with differing north-south distributions that correlated with Fucus phylogeography. An apparent southern range contraction of F. vesiculosus in the NW Atlantic on the North Carolina coast mimics that recently observed in the NE Atlantic. We suggest cross-Atlantic microbial structure of F. vesiculosus is related to a combination of past (glacial-cycle) and contemporary environmental drivers.

Highly restricted dispersal in habitat-forming seaweed may impede natural recovery of disturbed populations

Cystoseira sensu lato (Class Phaeophyceae, Order Fucales, Family Sargassaceae) forests play a central role in marine Mediterranean ecosystems. Over the last decades, Cystoseira s.l. suffered from a severe loss as a result of multiple anthropogenic stressors. In particular, Gongolaria barbata has faced multiple human-induced threats, and, despite its ecological importance in structuring rocky communities and hosting a large number of species, the natural recovery of G. barbata depleted populations is uncertain. Here, we used nine microsatellite loci specifically developed for G. barbata to assess the genetic diversity of this species and its genetic connectivity among fifteen sites located in the Ionian, the Adriatic and the Black Seas. In line with strong and significant heterozygosity deficiencies across loci, likely explained by Wahlund effect, high genetic structure was observed among the three seas (ENA corrected FST = 0.355, IC = [0.283, 0.440]), with an estimated dispersal distance per generation smaller than 600 m, both in the Adriatic and Black Sea. This strong genetic structure likely results from restricted gene flow driven by geographic distances and limited dispersal abilities, along with genetic drift within isolated populations. The presence of genetically disconnected populations at small spatial scales (< 10 km) has important implications for the identification of relevant conservation and management measures for G. barbata: each population should be considered as separated evolutionary units with dedicated conservation efforts.

Heat stress responses and population genetics of the kelp Laminaria digitata (Phaeophyceae) across latitudes reveal differentiation among North Atlantic populations

To understand the thermal plasticity of a coastal foundation species across its latitudinal distribution, we assess physiological responses to high temperature stress in the kelp Laminaria digitata in combination with population genetic characteristics and relate heat resilience to genetic features and phylogeography. We hypothesize that populations from Arctic and cold-temperate locations are less heat resilient than populations from warm distributional edges. Using meristems of natural L. digitata populations from six locations ranging between Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen (79°N), and Quiberon, France (47°N), we performed a common-garden heat stress experiment applying 15°C to 23°C over eight days. We assessed growth, photosynthetic quantum yield, carbon and nitrogen storage, and xanthophyll pigment contents as response traits. Population connectivity and genetic diversity were analyzed with microsatellite markers. Results from the heat stress experiment suggest that the upper temperature limit of L. digitata is nearly identical across its distribution range, but subtle differences in growth and stress responses were revealed for three populations from the species' ecological range margins. Two populations at the species' warm distribution limit showed higher temperature tolerance compared to other populations in growth at 19°C and recovery from 21°C (Quiberon, France), and photosynthetic quantum yield and xanthophyll pigment responses at 23°C (Helgoland, Germany). In L. digitata from the northernmost population (Spitsbergen, Norway), quantum yield indicated the highest heat sensitivity. Microsatellite genotyping revealed all sampled populations to be genetically distinct, with a strong hierarchical structure between southern and northern clades. Genetic diversity was lowest in the isolated population of the North Sea island of Helgoland and highest in Roscoff in the English Channel. All together, these results support the hypothesis of moderate local differentiation across L. digitata's European distribution, whereas effects are likely too weak to ameliorate the species' capacity to withstand ocean warming and marine heatwaves at the southern range edge.

A fine-tuned global distribution dataset of marine forests

Species distribution records are a prerequisite to follow climate-induced range shifts across space and time. However, synthesizing information from various sources such as peer-reviewed literature, herbaria, digital repositories and citizen science initiatives is not only costly and time consuming, but also challenging, as data may contain thematic and taxonomic errors and generally lack standardized formats. We address this gap for important marine ecosystem-structuring species of large brown algae and seagrasses. We gathered distribution records from various sources and provide a fine-tuned dataset with ~2.8 million dereplicated records, taxonomically standardized for 682 species, and considering important physiological and biogeographical traits. Specifically, a flagging system was implemented to signal potentially incorrect records reported on land, in regions with limiting light conditions for photosynthesis, and outside the known distribution of species, as inferred from the most recent published literature. We document the procedure and provide a dataset in tabular format based on Darwin Core Standard (DwC), alongside with a set of functions in R language for data management and visualization.

How experimental physiology and ecological niche modelling can inform the management of marine bioinvasions?

Marine bioinvasions are increasing worldwide by a number of factors related to the anthroposphere, such as higher ship traffic, climate change and biotic communities' alterations. Generating information about species with high invasive potential is necessary to inform management decisions aiming to prevent their arrival and spread. Grateloupia turuturu, one of the most harmful invasive macroalgae, is capable of damaging ecosystem functions and services, and causing biodiversity loss. Here we developed an ecological niche model using occurrence and environmental data to infer the potential global distribution of G. turuturu. In addition, ecophysiological experiments were performed with G. turuturu populations from different climatic regions to test predictions regarding invasion risk. Our model results show high suitability in temperate and warm temperate regions around the world, with special highlight to some areas where this species still doesn't occur. Thalli representing a potential temperate region origin, were held at 10, 13, 16, 20 and 24 °C, and measurements of optimal quantum field (Fv/Fm) demonstrated a decrease of photosynthetic yield in the higher temperature. Thalli from the population already established in warm temperate South Atlantic were held at 18, 24 and 30 °C with high and low nutrient conditions. This material exposed to the higher temperature demonstrated a drop in photosynthetic yield and significant reduction of growth rate. The congregation of modelling and physiological approach corroborate the invasive potential of G. turuturu and indicate higher invasion risk in temperate zones. Further discussions regarding management initiatives must be fostered to mitigate anthropogenic transport and eventually promote eradication initiatives in source areas, with special focus in the South America. We propose that this combined approach can be used to assess the potential distribution and establishment of other marine invasive species.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms reveal a genetic cline across the north-east Atlantic and enable powerful population assignment in the European lobster

Resolving stock structure is crucial for fisheries conservation to ensure that the spatial implementation of management is commensurate with that of biological population units. To address this in the economically important European lobster (Homarus gammarus), genetic structure was explored across the species' range using a small panel of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously isolated from restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing; these SNPs were selected to maximize differentiation at a range of both broad and fine scales. After quality control and filtering, 1,278 lobsters from 38 sampling sites were genotyped at 79 SNPs. The results revealed a pronounced phylogeographic break between the Atlantic and Mediterranean basins, while structure within the Mediterranean was also apparent, partitioned between lobsters from the central Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea. In addition, a genetic cline across the north-east Atlantic was revealed using both putatively neutral and outlier SNPs, but the precise driver(s) of this clinal pattern-isolation by distance, secondary contact, selection across an environmental gradient, or a combination of these factors-remains undetermined. Putatively neutral markers differentiated lobsters from Oosterschelde, an estuary on the Dutch coast, a finding likely explained by past bottlenecks and limited gene flow with adjacent North Sea populations. Building on the findings of our spatial genetic analysis, we were able to test the accuracy of assigning lobsters at various spatial scales, including to basin of origin (Atlantic or Mediterranean), region of origin and sampling location. The predictive model assembled using 79 SNPs correctly assigned 99.7% of lobsters not used to build the model to their basin of origin, but accuracy decreased to region of origin and again to sampling location. These results are of direct relevance to managers of lobster fisheries and hatcheries, and provide the basis for a genetic tool for tracing the origin of European lobsters in the food supply chain.

Geographic variation in fitness-related traits of the bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus along the Baltic Sea-North Sea salinity gradient

In the course of the ongoing global intensification and diversification of human pressures, the study of variation patterns of biological traits along environmental gradients can provide relevant information on the performance of species under shifting conditions. The pronounced salinity gradient, co-occurrence of multiple stressors, and accelerated rates of change make the Baltic Sea and its transition to North Sea a suitable region for this type of study. Focusing on the bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus, one of the main foundation species on hard-bottoms of the Baltic Sea, we analyzed the phenotypic variation among populations occurring along 2,000 km of coasts subjected to salinities from 4 to >30 and a variety of other stressors. Morphological and biochemical traits, including palatability for grazers, were recorded at 20 stations along the Baltic Sea and four stations in the North Sea. We evaluated in a common modeling framework the relative contribution of multiple environmental drivers to the observed trait patterns. Salinity was the main and, in some cases, the only environmental driver of the geographic trait variation in F. vesiculosus. The decrease in salinity from North Sea to Baltic Sea stations was accompanied by a decline in thallus size, photosynthetic pigments, and energy storage compounds, and affected the interaction of the alga with herbivores and epibiota. For some traits, drivers that vary locally such as wave exposure, light availability or nutrient enrichment were also important. The strong genetic population structure in this macroalgae might play a role in the generation and maintenance of phenotypic patterns across geographic scales. In light of our results, the desalination process projected for the Baltic Sea could have detrimental impacts on F. vesiculosus in areas close to its tolerance limit, affecting ecosystem functions such as habitat formation, primary production, and food supply.

Genetic diversity increases with depth in red gorgonian populations of the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean

Background

In the ocean, the variability of environmental conditions found along depth gradients exposes populations to contrasting levels of perturbation, which can be reflected in the overall patterns of species genetic diversity. At shallow sites, resource availability may structure large, persistent and well-connected populations with higher levels of diversity. In contrast, the more extreme conditions, such as thermal stress during heat waves, can lead to population bottlenecks and genetic erosion, inverting the natural expectation. Here we examine how genetic diversity varies along depth for a long-lived, important ecosystem-structuring species, the red gorgonian, Paramuricea clavata.

Methods

We used five polymorphic microsatellite markers to infer differences in genetic diversity and differentiation, and to detect bottleneck signs between shallow and deeper populations across the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. We further explored the potential relationship between depth and environmental gradients (temperature, ocean currents, productivity and slope) on the observed patterns of diversity by means of generalized linear mixed models.

Results

An overall pattern of higher genetic diversity was found in the deeper sites of the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. This pattern was largely explained by bottom temperatures, with a linear pattern of decreasing genetic diversity with increasing thermal stress. Genetic differentiation patterns showed higher gene flow within sites (i.e., shallow vs. deeper populations) than between sites. Recent genetic bottlenecks were found in two populations of shallow depths.

Discussion

Our results highlight the role of deep refugial populations safeguarding higher and unique genetic diversity for marine structuring species. Theoretical regression modelling demonstrated how thermal stress alone may reduce population sizes and diversity levels of shallow water populations. In fact, the examination of time series on a daily basis showed the upper water masses repeatedly reaching lethal temperatures for P. clavata. Differentiation patterns showed that the deep richer populations are isolated. Gene flow was also inferred across different depths; however, not in sufficient levels to offset the detrimental effects of surface environmental conditions on genetic diversity. The identification of deep isolated areas with high conservation value for the red gorgonian represents an important step in the face of ongoing and future climate changes.

Phylogeographic diversification and postglacial range dynamics shed light on the conservation of the kelp Saccharina japonica

Studies of postglacial range shifts could enhance our understanding of seaweed species' responses to climate change and hence facilitate the conservation of natural resources. However, the distribution dynamics and phylogeographic diversification of the commercially and ecologically important kelp Saccharina japonica in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) are still poorly surveyed. In this study, we analyzed the evolutionary history of S. japonica using two mitochondrial markers and 24 nuclear microsatellites. A STRUCTURE analysis revealed two partially isolated lineages: lineage H, which is scattered along the coast of Japan; and lineage P, which occurs along the west coast of the Japan Sea. Ecological niche modeling projections to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) revealed that the southern coasts of the Japan Sea and the Pacific side of the Oshima and Honshu Peninsulas provided the most suitable habitats for S. japonica, implying that these regions served as ancient refugia during the LGM. Ancient isolation in different refugia may explain the observed divergence between lineages P and H. An approximate Bayesian computation analysis indicated that the two lineages experienced post-LGM range expansion and that postglacial secondary contact occurred in Sakhalin. Model projections into the year 2,100 predicted that S. japonica will shift northwards and lose its genetic diversity center on the Oshima Peninsula in Hokkaido and Shimokita Peninsula in Honshu. The range shifts and evolutionary history of S. japonica improve our understanding of how climate change impacted the distribution range and diversity of this species and provide useful information for the conservation of natural resources under ongoing environmental change in the NWP.

Differentiation in fitness-related traits in response to elevated temperatures between leading and trailing edge populations of marine macrophytes

The nature of species distribution boundaries is a key subject in ecology and evolution. Edge populations are potentially more exposed to climate-related environmental pressures. Despite research efforts, little is known about variability in fitness-related traits in leading (i.e., colder, high latitude) versus trailing (i.e., warmer, low latitude) edge populations. We tested whether the resilience, i.e. the resistance and recovery, of key traits differs between a distributional cold (Greenland) and warm (Portugal) range edge population of two foundation marine macrophytes, the intertidal macroalga Fucus vesiculosus and the subtidal seagrass Zostera marina. The resistance and recovery of edge populations to elevated seawater temperatures was compared under common experimental conditions using photosynthetic efficiency and expression of heat shock proteins (HSP). Cold and warm edge populations differed in their response, but this was species specific. The warm edge population of F. vesiculosus showed higher thermal resistance and recovery whereas the cold leading edge was less tolerant. The opposite was observed in Z. marina, with reduced recovery at the warm edge, while the cold edge was not markedly affected by warming. Our results confirm that differentiation of thermal stress responses can occur between leading and trailing edges, but such responses depend on local population traits and are thus not predictable just based on thermal pressures.

Predicted extinction of unique genetic diversity in marine forests of Cystoseira spp

Climate change is inducing shifts in species ranges across the globe. These can affect the genetic pools of species, including loss of genetic variability and evolutionary potential. In particular, geographically enclosed ecosystems, like the Mediterranean Sea, have a higher risk of suffering species loss and genetic erosion due to barriers to further range shifts and to dispersal. In this study, we address these questions for three habitat-forming seaweed species, Cystoseira tamariscifolia, C. amentacea and C. compressa, throughout their entire ranges in the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions. We aim to 1) describe their population genetic structure and diversity, 2) model the present and predict the future distribution and 3) assess the consequences of predicted future range shifts for their population genetic structure, according to two contrasting future climate change scenarios. A net loss of suitable areas was predicted in both climatic scenarios across the range of distribution of the three species. This loss was particularly severe for C. amentacea in the Mediterranean Sea (less 90% in the most extreme climatic scenario), suggesting that the species could become potentially at extinction risk. For all species, genetic data showed very differentiated populations, indicating low inter-population connectivity, and high and distinct genetic diversity in areas that were predicted to become lost, causing erosion of unique evolutionary lineages. Our results indicated that the Mediterranean Sea is the most threatened region, where future suitable Cystoseira habitats will become more limited. This is likely to have wider ecosystem impacts as there is a lack of species with the same ecological niche and functional role in the Mediterranean. The projected accelerated loss of already fragmented and disturbed populations and the long-term genetic effects highlight the urge for local scale management strategies that sustain the capacity of these habitat-forming species to persist despite climatic impacts while waiting for global emission reductions.

Glacial vicariance drives phylogeographic diversification in the amphi-boreal kelp Saccharina latissima

Glacial vicariance is regarded as one of the most prevalent drivers of phylogeographic structure and speciation among high-latitude organisms, but direct links between ice advances and range fragmentation have been more difficult to establish in marine than in terrestrial systems. Here we investigate the evolution of largely disjunct (and potentially reproductively isolated) phylogeographic lineages within the amphi-boreal kelp Saccharina latissima s. l. Using molecular data (COI, microsatellites) we confirm that S. latissima comprises also the NE Pacific S. cichorioides complex and is composed of divergent lineages with limited range overlap and genetic admixture. Only a few genetic hybrids were detected throughout a Canadian Arctic/NW Greenland contact zone. The degree of genetic differentiation and sympatric isolation of phylogroups suggest that S. latissima s. l. represents a complex of incipient species. Phylogroup distributions compared with paleo-environmental reconstructions of the cryosphere further suggest that diversification within S. latissima results from chronic glacial isolation in disjunct persistence areas intercalated with ephemeral interglacial poleward expansions and admixture at high-latitude (Arctic) contact zones. This study thus supports a role for glaciations not just in redistributing pre-existing marine lineages but also as a speciation pump across multi-glacial cycles for marine organisms otherwise exhibiting cosmopolite amphi-boreal distributions.

Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic

Intraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial-interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modelling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid-Holocene (6,000 YBP), and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross-validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected polewards expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran, and Morocco for warm-temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum-Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic, and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing.

Evidence for rangewide panmixia despite multiple barriers to dispersal in a marine mussel

Oceanographic features shape the distributional and genetic patterns of marine species by interrupting or promoting connections among populations. Although general patterns commonly arise, distributional ranges and genetic structure are species-specific and do not always comply with the expected trends. By applying a multimarker genetic approach combined with Lagrangian particle simulations (LPS) we tested the hypothesis that oceanographic features along northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean shores influence dispersal potential and genetic structure of the intertidal mussel Perna perna. Additionally, by performing environmental niche modelling we assessed the potential and realized niche of P. perna along its entire native distributional range and the environmental factors that best explain its realized distribution. Perna perna showed evidence of panmixia across >4,000 km despite several oceanographic breaking points detected by LPS. This is probably the result of a combination of life history traits, continuous habitat availability and stepping-stone dynamics. Moreover, the niche modelling framework depicted minimum sea surface temperatures (SST) as the major factor shaping P. perna distributional range limits along its native areas. Forthcoming warming SST is expected to further change these limits and allow the species to expand its range polewards though this may be accompanied by retreat from warmer areas.

Palaeoclimatic conditions in the Mediterranean explain genetic diversity of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows

Past environmental conditions in the Mediterranean Sea have been proposed as main drivers of the current patterns of distribution of genetic structure of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica, the foundation species of one of the most important ecosystems in the Mediterranean Sea. Yet, the location of cold climate refugia (persistence regions) for this species during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is not clear, precluding the understanding of its biogeographical history. We used Ecological Niche Modelling together with existing phylogeographic data to locate Pleistocene refugia in the Mediterranean Sea and to develop a hypothetical past biogeographical distribution able to explain the genetic diversity presently found in P. oceanica meadows. To do that, we used an ensemble approach of six predictive algorithms and two Ocean General Circulation Models. The minimum SST in winter and the maximum SST in summer allowed us to hindcast the species range during the LGM. We found separate glacial refugia in each Mediterranean basin and in the Central region. Altogether, the results suggest that the Central region of the Mediterranean Sea was the most relevant cold climate refugium, supporting the hypothesis that long-term persistence there allowed the region to develop and retain its presently high proportion of the global genetic diversity of P. oceanica.

Genome Surfing As Driver of Microbial Genomic Diversity

Historical changes in population size, such as those caused by demographic range expansions, can produce nonadaptive changes in genomic diversity through mechanisms such as gene surfing. We propose that demographic range expansion of a microbial population capable of horizontal gene exchange can result in genome surfing, a mechanism that can cause widespread increase in the pan-genome frequency of genes acquired by horizontal gene exchange. We explain that patterns of genetic diversity within Streptomyces are consistent with genome surfing, and we describe several predictions for testing this hypothesis both in Streptomyces and in other microorganisms.

Colonization in North American Arid Lands: The Journey of Agarito (Berberis trifoliolata) Revealed by Multilocus Molecular Data and Packrat Midden Fossil Remains

Here we conduct research to understand the evolutionary history of a shrubby species known as Agarito (Berberis trifoliolata), an endemic species to the Chihuahuan Desert. We identify genetic signatures based on plastid DNA and AFLP markers and perform niche modelling and spatial connectivity analyses as well as niche modelling based on records in packrats to elucidate whether orogenic events such as mountain range uplift in the Miocene or the contraction/expansion dynamics of vegetation in response to climate oscillations in the Pliocene/Pleistocene had an effect on evolutionary processes in Agarito. Our results of current niche modelling and palaeomodelling showed that the area currently occupied by Berberis trifoliolata is substantially larger than it was during the Last Interglacial period and the Last Glacial Maximum. Agarito was probably confined to small areas in the Northeastern and gradually expanded its distribution just after the Last Glacial Maximum when the weather in the Chihuahuan Desert and adjacent regions became progressively warmer and drier. The most contracted range was predicted for the Interglacial period. Populations remained in stable areas during the Last Glacial Maximum and expanded at the beginning of the Holocene. Most genetic variation occured in populations from the Sierra Madre Oriental. Two groups of haplotypes were identified: the Mexican Plateau populations and certain Northeastern populations. Haplogroups were spatially connected during the Last Glacial Maximum and separated during interglacial periods. The most important prediction of packrat middens palaeomodelling lies in the Mexican Plateau, a finding congruent with current and past niche modelling predictions for agarito and genetic results. Our results corroborate that these climate changes in the Pliocene/Pleistocene affected the evolutionary history of agarito. The journey of agarito in the Chihuahuan Desert has been dynamic, expanding and contracting its distribution range and currently occupying the largest area in its history.

Habitat continuity and stepping-stone oceanographic distances explain population genetic connectivity of the brown alga Cystoseira amentacea

Effective predictive and management approaches for species occurring in a metapopulation structure require good understanding of interpopulation connectivity. In this study, we ask whether population genetic structure of marine species with fragmented distributions can be predicted by stepping-stone oceanographic transport and habitat continuity, using as model an ecosystem-structuring brown alga, Cystoseira amentacea var. stricta. To answer this question, we analysed the genetic structure and estimated the connectivity of populations along discontinuous rocky habitat patches in southern Italy, using microsatellite markers at multiple scales. In addition, we modelled the effect of rocky habitat continuity and ocean circulation on gene flow by simulating Lagrangian particle dispersal based on ocean surface currents allowing multigenerational stepping-stone dynamics. Populations were highly differentiated, at scales from few metres up to thousands of kilometres. The best possible model fit to explain the genetic results combined current direction, rocky habitat extension and distance along the coast among rocky sites. We conclude that a combination of variable suitable habitat and oceanographic transport is a useful predictor of genetic structure. This relationship provides insight into the mechanisms of dispersal and the role of life-history traits. Our results highlight the importance of spatially explicit modelling of stepping-stone dynamics and oceanographic directional transport coupled with habitat suitability, to better describe and predict marine population structure and differentiation. This study also suggests the appropriate spatial scales for the conservation, restoration and management of species that are increasingly affected by habitat modifications.

Overlooked habitat of a vulnerable gorgonian revealed in the Mediterranean and Eastern Atlantic by ecological niche modelling

Factors shaping the distribution of mesophotic octocorals (30-200 m depth) remain poorly understood, potentially leaving overlooked coral areas, particularly near their bathymetric and geographic distributional limits. Yet, detailed knowledge about habitat requirements is crucial for conservation of sensitive gorgonians. Here we use Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) relating thirteen environmental predictors and a highly comprehensive presence dataset, enhanced by SCUBA diving surveys, to investigate the suitable habitat of an important structuring species, Paramuricea clavata, throughout its distribution (Mediterranean and adjacent Atlantic). Models showed that temperature (11.5-25.5 °C) and slope are the most important predictors carving the niche of P. clavata. Prediction throughout the full distribution (TSS 0.9) included known locations of P. clavata alongside with previously unknown or unreported sites along the coast of Portugal and Africa, including seamounts. These predictions increase the understanding of the potential distribution for the northern Mediterranean and indicate suitable hard bottom areas down to >150 m depth. Poorly sampled habitats with predicted presence along Algeria, Alboran Sea and adjacent Atlantic coasts encourage further investigation. We propose that surveys of target areas from the predicted distribution map, together with local expert knowledge, may lead to discoveries of new P. clavata sites and identify priority conservation areas.

Buffering and Amplifying Interactions among OAW (Ocean Acidification & Warming) and Nutrient Enrichment on Early Life-Stage Fucus vesiculosus L. (Phaeophyceae) and Their Carry Over Effects to Hypoxia Impact

Ocean acidification and warming (OAW) are occurring globally. Additionally, at a more local scale the spreading of hypoxic conditions is promoted by eutrophication and warming. In the semi-enclosed brackish Baltic Sea, occasional upwelling in late summer and autumn may expose even shallow-water communities including the macroalga Fucus vesiculosus to particularly acidified, nutrient-rich and oxygen-poor water bodies. During summer 2014 (July-September) sibling groups of early life-stage F. vesiculosus were exposed to OAW in the presence and absence of enhanced nutrient levels and, subsequently to a single upwelling event in a near-natural scenario which included all environmental fluctuations in the Kiel Fjord, southwestern Baltic Sea, Germany (54°27 ´N, 10°11 ´W). We strove to elucidate the single and combined impacts of these potential stressors, and how stress sensitivity varies among genetically different sibling groups. Enhanced by a circumstantial natural heat wave, warming and acidification increased mortalities and reduced growth in F. vesiculosus germlings. This impact, however, was mitigated by enhanced nutrient conditions. Survival under OAW conditions strongly varied among sibling groups hinting at a substantial adaptive potential of the natural Fucus populations in the Western Baltic. A three-day experimental upwelling caused severe mortality of Fucus germlings, which was substantially more severe in those sibling groups which previously had been exposed to OAW. Our results show that global (OAW), regional (nutrient enrichment) and local pressures (upwelling), both alone and co-occurring may have synergistic and antagonistic effects on survival and/or growth of Fucus germlings. This result emphasizes the need to consider combined stress effects.

Tackling intraspecific genetic structure in distribution models better reflects species geographical range

Genetic diversity provides insight into heterogeneous demographic and adaptive history across organisms' distribution ranges. For this reason, decomposing single species into genetic units may represent a powerful tool to better understand biogeographical patterns as well as improve predictions of the effects of GCC (global climate change) on biodiversity loss. Using 279 georeferenced Iberian accessions, we used classes of three intraspecific genetic units of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana obtained from the genetic analyses of nuclear SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), chloroplast SNPs, and the vernalization requirement for flowering. We used SDM (species distribution models), including climate, vegetation, and soil data, at the whole-species and genetic-unit levels. We compared model outputs for present environmental conditions and with a particularly severe GCC scenario. SDM accuracy was high for genetic units with smaller distribution ranges. Kernel density plots identified the environmental variables underpinning potential distribution ranges of genetic units. Combinations of environmental variables accounted for potential distribution ranges of genetic units, which shrank dramatically with GCC at almost all levels. Only two genetic clusters increased their potential distribution ranges with GCC. The application of SDM to intraspecific genetic units provides a detailed picture on the biogeographical patterns of distinct genetic groups based on different genetic criteria. Our approach also allowed us to pinpoint the genetic changes, in terms of genetic background and physiological requirements for flowering, that Iberian A. thaliana may experience with a GCC scenario applying SDM to intraspecific genetic units.

Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea

Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L. hyperborea. Because no genetic baseline is currently available for this species, our results may represent a first step in informing conservation and mitigation strategies.

Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa.

METHODS

We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change.

KEY RESULTS

We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning.

Seascape drivers of Macrocystis pyrifera population genetic structure in the northeast Pacific

At small spatial and temporal scales, genetic differentiation is largely controlled by constraints on gene flow, while genetic diversity across a species' distribution is shaped on longer temporal and spatial scales. We assess the hypothesis that oceanographic transport and other seascape features explain different scales of genetic structure of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera. We followed a hierarchical approach to perform a microsatellite-based analysis of genetic differentiation in Macrocystis across its distribution in the northeast Pacific. We used seascape genetic approaches to identify large-scale biogeographic population clusters and investigate whether they could be explained by oceanographic transport and other environmental drivers. We then modelled population genetic differentiation within clusters as a function of oceanographic transport and other environmental factors. Five geographic clusters were identified: Alaska/Canada, central California, continental Santa Barbara, California Channel Islands and mainland southern California/Baja California peninsula. The strongest break occurred between central and southern California, with mainland Santa Barbara sites forming a transition zone between the two. Breaks between clusters corresponded approximately to previously identified biogeographic breaks, but were not solely explained by oceanographic transport. An isolation-by-environment (IBE) pattern was observed where the northern and southern Channel Islands clustered together, but not with closer mainland sites, despite the greater distance between them. The strongest environmental association with this IBE pattern was observed with light extinction coefficient, which extends suitable habitat to deeper areas. Within clusters, we found support for previous results showing that oceanographic connectivity plays an important role in the population genetic structure of Macrocystis in the Northern hemisphere.

Ecological niche models of invasive seaweeds

Ecological niche models (ENMs) are commonly used to calculate habitat suitability from species' occurrence and macroecological data. In invasive species biology, ENMs can be applied to anticipate whether invasive species are likely to establish in an area, to identify critical routes and arrival points, to build risk maps and to predict the extent of potential spread following an introduction. Most studies using ENMs focus on terrestrial organisms and applications in the marine realm are still relatively rare. Here, we review some common methods to build ENMs and their application in seaweed invasion biology. We summarize methods and concepts involved in the development of niche models, show examples of how they have been applied in studies on algae and discuss the application of ENMs in invasive algae research and to predict effects of climate change on seaweed distributions.

Genes Left Behind: Climate Change Threatens Cryptic Genetic Diversity in the Canopy-Forming Seaweed Bifurcaria bifurcata

The global redistribution of biodiversity will intensify in the coming decades of climate change, making projections of species range shifts and of associated genetic losses important components of conservation planning. Highly-structured marine species, notably brown seaweeds, often harbor unique genetic variation at warmer low-latitude rear edges and thus are of particular concern. Here, a combination of Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) and molecular data is used to forecast the potential near-future impacts of climate change for a warm-temperate, canopy forming seaweed, Bifurcaria bifurcata. ENMs for B. bifurcata were developed using marine and terrestrial climatic variables, and its range projected for 2040-50 and 2090-2100 under two greenhouse emission scenarios. Geographical patterns of genetic diversity were assessed by screening 18 populations spawning the entire distribution for two organelle genes and 6 microsatellite markers. The southern limit of B. bifurcata was predicted to shift northwards to central Morocco by the mid-century. By 2090-2100, depending on the emission scenario, it could either retreat further north to western Iberia or be relocated back to Western Sahara. At the opposing margin, B. bifurcata was predicted to expand its range to Scotland or even Norway. Microsatellite diversity and endemism were highest in Morocco, where a unique and very restricted lineage was also identified. Our results imply that B. bifurcata will maintain a relatively broad latitudinal distribution. Although its persistence is not threatened, the predicted extirpation of a unique southern lineage or even the entire Moroccan diversity hotspot will erase a rich evolutionary legacy and shrink global diversity to current (low) European levels. NW Africa and similarly understudied southern regions should receive added attention if expected range changes and diversity loss of warm-temperate species is not to occur unnoticed.

Oceanographic Conditions Limit the Spread of a Marine Invader along Southern African Shores

Invasive species can affect the function and structure of natural ecological communities, hence understanding and predicting their potential for spreading is a major ecological challenge. Once established in a new region, the spread of invasive species is largely controlled by their dispersal capacity, local environmental conditions and species interactions. The mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis is native to the Mediterranean and is the most successful marine invader in southern Africa. Its distribution there has expanded rapidly and extensively since the 1970s, however, over the last decade its spread has ceased. In this study, we coupled broad scale field surveys, Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) and Lagrangian Particle Simulations (LPS) to assess the current invaded distribution of M. galloprovincialis in southern Africa and to evaluate what prevents further spread of this species. Results showed that all environmentally suitable habitats in southern Africa have been occupied by the species. This includes rocky shores between Rocky Point in Namibia and East London in South Africa (approx. 2800 km) and these limits coincide with the steep transitions between cool-temperate and subtropical-warmer climates, on both west and southeast African coasts. On the west coast, simulations of drifting larvae almost entirely followed the northward and offshore direction of the Benguela current, creating a clear dispersal barrier by advecting larvae away from the coast. On the southeast coast, nearshore currents give larvae the potential to move eastwards, against the prevalent Agulhas current and beyond the present distributional limit, however environmental conditions prevent the establishment of the species. The transition between the cooler and warmer water regimes is therefore the main factor limiting the northern spread on the southeast coast; however, biotic interactions with native fauna may also play an important role.