European deciduous trees exhibit similar safety margins against damage by spring freeze events along elevational gradients

Use of electrolyte leakage to assess floral damage after freezing

Premise

With growing interest in the impact of false springs on plant reproduction, there is the need to develop reliable, high-throughput methods for assessing floral freezing damage. Here we present a method for use with floral tissue that will facilitate more comparative work on floral freezing tolerance in the future.

Methods and Results

We examined the effectiveness of a modified electrolyte leakage protocol to assess floral freezing damage. By comparing data from temperature response curves to an estimate of visual tissue damage, we optimized the protocol for different floral types and improved the signal-to-noise ratio for floral data.

Conclusions

Our modified protocol provides a quick and straightforward method for quantifying floral freezing damage that can be standardized across floral types. This method allows for cross-species comparisons and can be a powerful tool for studying broad patterns in floral freezing tolerance.

Winter and spring frost events delay leaf-out, hamper growth and increase mortality in European beech seedlings, with weaker effects of subsequent frosts

The persistence of plant populations depends crucially on successful regeneration. Yet, little is known about the effects of consecutive winter and spring frost events on the regeneration stage of trees from different seed sources, although this will partly determine the success of climate warming-driven poleward range shifts. In a common garden experiment with European beech (Fagus sylvatica) seedlings from winter 2015/2016 to autumn 2017, we studied how simulated successive spring and winter frost events affect leaf-out dates, growth performance, and survival rates of 1- to 2-year-old seedlings from provenances differing in climate at origin. We further investigated the combined effects of successive frost events. The first spring frost after germination led to a mortality rate up to 75%, resulting in reduced seedling numbers but better frost tolerance of the survivors, as reflected in a weaker impact of the following winter frost event in the survivors compared to the non-acclimated control. Final plant height was most strongly reduced by the spring frost in the second year. The winter frost event delayed leaf-out by up to 40 days, leading to severe growth impairment in 2017. Our results indicate partly successful frost acclimation and/or the selection of frost-hardier individuals, because the negative growth effects of consecutive frost events did not add up after exposure to more than one event. Both mechanisms may help to increase the frost tolerance of beech offspring. Nevertheless, mortality after the first spring frost was high, and frost exposure generally caused growth reductions. Thus, achieving higher frost tolerance may not be sufficient for beech seedlings to overcome frost-induced reductions in competitive strength caused by winter frost damage and delayed leaf enfolding.

The sensitivity of root water uptake to cold root temperature follows species-specific upper elevational distribution limits of temperate tree species

Physiological water stress induced by low root temperatures might contribute to species-specific climatic limits of tree distribution. We investigated the low temperature sensitivity of root water uptake and transport in seedlings of 16 European tree species which reach their natural upper elevation distribution limits at different distances to the alpine treeline. We used 2H-H2O pulse-labelling to quantify the water uptake and transport velocity from roots to leaves in seedlings exposed to constant 15°C, 7°C or 2°C root temperature, but identical aboveground temperatures between 20°C and 25°C. In all species, low root temperatures reduced the water transport rate, accompanied by reduced stem water potentials and stomatal conductance. At 7°C root temperature, the relative water uptake rates among species correlated positively with the species-specific upper elevation limits, indicating an increasingly higher sensitivity to lower root zone temperatures, the lower a species' natural elevational distribution limit. Conversely, 2°C root temperature severely inhibited water uptake in all species, irrespective of the species' thermal elevational limits. We conclude that low temperature-induced hydraulic constraints contribute to the cold distribution limits of temperate tree species and are a potential physiological cause behind the low temperature limits of plant growth in general.

Time to budbreak is not enough: cold hardiness evaluation is necessary in dormancy and spring phenology studies

BACKGROUND

Dormancy of buds is an important phase in the life cycle of perennial plants growing in environments where unsuitable growth conditions occur seasonally. In regions where low temperature defines these unsuitable conditions, the attainment of cold hardiness is also required for survival. The end of the dormant period culminates in budbreak and flower emergence, or spring phenology, one of the most appreciated and studied phenological events - a time also understood to be most sensitive to low-temperature damage. Despite this, we have a limited physiological and molecular understanding of dormancy, which has negatively affected our ability to model budbreak. This is also true for cold hardiness.

SCOPE

Here we highlight the importance of including cold hardiness in dormancy studies that typically only characterize time to budbreak. We show how different temperature treatments may lead to increases in cold hardiness, and by doing so also (potentially inadvertently) increase time to budbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

We present a theory that describes evaluation of cold hardiness as being key to clarifying physiological changes throughout the dormant period, delineating dormancy statuses, and improving both chill and phenology models. Erroneous interpretations of budbreak datasets are possible by not phenotyping cold hardiness. Changes in cold hardiness were very probably present in previous experiments that studied dormancy, especially when those included below-freezing temperature treatments. Separating the effects between chilling accumulation and cold acclimation in future studies will be essential for increasing our understanding of dormancy and spring phenology in plants.

Stable water isotopes reveal the onset of bud dormancy in temperate trees, whereas water content is a better proxy for dormancy release

Earlier spring growth onset in temperate forests is a visible effect of global warming that alters global water and carbon cycling. Consequently, it becomes crucial to accurately predict the future spring phenological shifts in vegetation under different climate warming scenarios. However, current phenological models suffer from a lack of physiological insights of tree dormancy and are rarely experimentally validated. Here, we sampled twig cuttings of five deciduous tree species at two climatically different locations (270 and 750 m a.s.l., ~ 2.3 °C difference) throughout the winter of 2019-20. Twig budburst success, thermal time to budburst, bud water content and short-term 2H-labelled water uptake into buds were quantified to link bud dormancy status with vascular water transport efficacy, with the objective of establishing connections between the dormancy status of buds and their effectiveness in vascular water transport. We found large differences in the dormancy status between species throughout the entire investigation period, likely reflecting species-specific environmental requirements to initiate and release dormancy, whereas only small differences in the dormancy status were found between the two studied sites. We found strong 2H-labelled water uptake into buds during leaf senescence, followed by a sharp decrease, which we ascribed to the initiation of endodormancy. However, surprisingly, we did not find a progressive increase in 2H-labelled water uptake into buds as winter advanced. Nonetheless, all examined tree species exhibited a consistent relationship between bud water content and dormancy status. Our results suggest that short-term 2H-labelled water uptake may not be a robust indicator of dormancy release, yet it holds promise as a method for tracking the induction of dormancy in deciduous trees. By contrast, bud water content emerges as a cost-effective and more reliable indicator of dormancy release.

Soil freeze-thaw cycles affect spring phenology by changing phenological sensitivity in the Northern Hemisphere

The use of frozen soil-vegetation feedback for predictive models is undergoing enormous changes under rapid climate warming. However, the influence of soil freeze-thaw (SFT) cycles on vegetation phenology and the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. By synthesizing a variety of satellite-derived data from 2002 to 2021 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), we demonstrated a widespread positive correlation between soil thawing and the start of the growing season (SOS). Our results also showed that the SFT cycles had a significant impact on vegetation phenology mainly by altering the phenological sensitivities to daytime and nighttime temperatures, solar radiation and precipitation. Moreover, the effects of SFT cycles on the sensitivity of the SOS were more pronounced than those on the sensitivity of the end of the growing season (EOS) and the length of growing season (LOS). Furthermore, due to the degradation of frozen soil, the changes in phenological sensitivity in the grassland and tundra biomes were significantly larger than those in the forest. These findings highlighted the importance of incorporating the SFT as an intermediate process into process-based phenological models.

Experimental investigation of freeze injury temperatures in trees and their contributing factors based on electrical impedance spectroscopy

In trees, injuries resulting from subfreezing temperatures can cause damage to the cellular biofilm system, metabolic functions, and fibrous reticulum, and even cell death. Investigating the occurrence of freezing damage and its contributing factors could help understand the mechanisms underlying freezing injury and prevent the subsequent damage in trees. To achieve this, a laboratory experiment was conducted using cut wood samples from Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis Siebold & Zucc) and Simon poplar (Populus simonii Carr.), and the effects of environmental freezing factors, including freezing temperatures, freezing duration, and cooling rate, on the temperature at which freezing injuries occur were examined using the electrical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) method. The semi-lethal temperature (LT50), as an indicator of freezing injury in wood tissue, was theoretically deduced based on the measured extracellular resistance (r e) using EIS. The contributory factors to changes in LT50 were determined and their relationship was established. The results revealed that all freezing factors exhibited significant effects on electrical impedance characteristics (r e, r i, and τ), significantly influencing the LT50 of the wood. Random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) models were used to assess the contribution of the freezing factors and moisture content (MC). Among the factors examined, freezing duration had the greatest impact on LT50, followed by the MC, whereas the contribution of the cooling rate was minimal. The model accuracies were 0.89 and 0.86 for Korean pine and Simon poplar, respectively. The findings of our study illustrate that the occurrence of freezing injury in trees is primarily influenced by the duration of freezing at specific subzero temperatures. Slow cooling combined with prolonged freezing at low subzero temperatures leads to earlier and more severe freezing damage.

Eco-physiological trait variation in widely occurring species of Western Himalaya along elevational gradients reveals their high adaptive potential in stressful conditions

Species distributed across a wide elevation range have broad environmental tolerance and adopt specific adaptation strategies to cope with varying climatic conditions. The aim of this study is to understand the patterns of variation in leaf eco-physiological traits that are related to the adaptation of species with a wide distribution in different climatic conditions. We studied the variability in eco-physiological traits of two co-occurring species of Western Himalaya (Rumex nepalensis and Taraxacum officinale), along elevational gradients. We conducted our study in elevations ranging from 1000 to 4000 m a.s.l. in three transects separated in an eco-region spanning 2.5° latitudes and 2.3° longitudes in the Western Himalaya. We hypothesized substantial variation in eco-physiological traits, especially increased net rate of photosynthesis (PN), Rubisco specific activity (RSA), and biochemicals at higher elevations, enabling species to adapt to varying environmental conditions. Therefore, the photosynthetic measurements along with leaf sampling were carried out during the months of June-August and the variations in photosynthetic performance and other leaf traits were assessed. Data was analyzed using a linear mixed effect model with 'species,' 'elevation' as fixed and 'transect' as random factor. Elevation had a significant effect on majority of traits. It was found that PN and maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vcmax) have unimodal or declining trend along increasing elevations. High RSA was observed at higher elevations in all the three transects. Trends for biochemical traits such as total soluble sugars, total soluble proteins, proline, and total phenolics content suggested an increase in these traits for the survival of plants in harsh environments of higher elevations. Our study reveals that although there is considerable variation in the eco-physiological traits of the two species across elevational gradients of different transects, there are certain similarities in the patterns that depict their high adaptive potential in varying climatic conditions.

Maladaptive plastic responses of flowering time to geothermal heating

Phenotypic plasticity might increase fitness if the conditions under which it evolved remain unaltered, but becomes maladaptive if the environment no longer provides reliable cues for subsequent conditions. In seasonal environments, timing of reproduction can respond plastically to spring temperature, maximizing the benefits of a long season while minimizing the exposure to unfavorable cold temperatures. However, if the relationship between early spring temperatures and later conditions changes, the optimal response might change. In geothermally heated ecosystems, the plastic response of flowering time to springtime soil temperature that has evolved in unheated areas is likely to be non-optimal, because soil temperatures are higher and decoupled from air temperatures in heated areas. We therefore expect natural selection to favor a lower plasticity and a delayed flowering in these areas. Using observational data along a natural geothermal warming gradient, we tested the hypothesis that selection on flowering time depends on soil temperature and favors later flowering on warmer soils in the perennial Cerastium fontanum. In both study years, plants growing in warmer soils began flowering earlier than plants growing in colder soils, suggesting that first flowering date (FFD) responds plastically to soil temperature. In one of the two study years, selection favored earlier flowering in colder soils but later flowering in warmer soils, suggesting that the current level of plastic advance of FFD on warmer soils may be maladaptive in some years. Our results illustrate the advantages of using natural experiments, such as geothermal ecosystems, to examine selection in environments that recently have undergone major changes. Such knowledge is essential to understand and predict both ecological and evolutionary responses to climate warming.

Phenological physiology: seasonal patterns of plant stress tolerance in a changing climate

The physiological challenges posed by climate change for seasonal, perennial plants include increased risk of heat waves, postbudbreak freezing ('false springs'), and droughts. Although considerable physiological work has shown that the traits conferring tolerance to these stressors - thermotolerance, cold hardiness, and water deficit stress, respectively - are not static in time, they are frequently treated as such. In this review, I synthesize the recent literature on predictable seasonal - and therefore, phenological - patterns of acclimation and deacclimation to heat, cold, and water-deficit stress in perennials, focusing on woody plants native to temperate climates. I highlight promising, high-throughput techniques for quantifying thermotolerance, cold hardiness, and drought tolerance. For each of these forms of stress tolerance, I summarize the current balance of evidence regarding temporal patterns over the course of a year and suggest a characteristic temporal scale in these responses to environmental stress. In doing so, I offer a synthetic framework of 'phenological physiology', in which understanding and leveraging seasonally recurring (phenological) patterns of physiological stress acclimation can facilitate climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Tree-ring and remote sensing analyses uncover the role played by elevation on European beech sensitivity to late spring frost

Extreme climate events such as late spring frosts (LSFs) negatively affect productivity and tree growth in temperate beech forests. However, detailed information on how these forests recover after such events are still missing. We investigated how LSFs affected forest cover and radial growth in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) populations located at different elevations at four sites in the Italian Apennines, where LSFs have been recorded. We combined tree-ring and remote-sensing data to analyse the sensitivity and recovery capacity of beech populations to LSFs. Using daily temperature records, we reconstructed LSF events and assessed legacy effects on growth. We also evaluated the role played by elevation and stand structure as modulators of LSFs impacts. Finally, using satellite images we computed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and LAI (Leaf Area Index) to evaluate the post-LSF canopy recovery. The growth reduction in LSF-affected trees ranged from 36 % to 84 %. We detected a negative impact of LSF on growth only during the LSF year, with growth recovery occurring within 1-2 years after the event. LSF-affected stands featured low vegetation indices until late June, i.e. on average 75 days after the frost events. We did not find a clear relationship between beech forest elevation and occurrence of LSFs defoliations. Our results indicate a high recovery capacity of common beech and no legacy effects of LSFs.

Selection against early flowering in geothermally heated soils is associated with pollen but not prey availability in a carnivorous plant

PREMISE

In high-latitude environments, plastic responses of phenology to increasing spring temperatures allow plants to extend growing seasons while avoiding late frosts. However, evolved plasticity might become maladaptive if climatic conditions change and spring temperatures no longer provide reliable cues for conditions important for fitness. Maladaptative phenological responses might be related to both abiotic factors and mismatches with interacting species. When mismatches arise, we expect selection to favor changes in phenology.

METHODS

We combined observations along a soil temperature gradient in a geothermally heated area with pollen and prey supplementation experiments and examined how phenotypic selection on flowering time in the carnivorous plant Pinguicula vulgaris depends on soil temperature, and pollen and prey availability.

RESULTS

Flowering advanced and fitness decreased with increasing soil temperature. However, in pollen-supplemented plants, fitness instead increased with soil temperature. In heated soils, there was selection favoring later flowering, while earlier flowering was favored in unheated soils. This pattern remained also after artificially increasing pollen and prey availability.

CONCLUSIONS

Plant-pollinator mismatches can be an important reason why evolved plastic responses of flowering time to increasing spring temperatures become maladaptive under novel environmental conditions, and why there is selection to delay flowering. In our study, selection for later flowering remained after artificially increasing pollen availability, suggesting that abiotic factors also contribute to the observed selection. Identifying the factors that make evolved phenological responses maladaptive under novel conditions is fundamental for understanding and predicting evolutionary responses to climate warming.

The early bud gets the cold: Diverging spring phenology drives exposure to late frost in a Picea mariana [(Mill.) BSP] common garden

Under climate change, the increasing occurrence of late frost combined with advancing spring phenology can increase the risk of frost damage in trees. In this study, we tested the link between intra-specific variability in bud phenology and frost exposure and damages. We analysed the effects of the 2021 late frost event in a black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) common garden in Québec, Canada. We hypothesised that the timing of budbreak drives the exposure of vulnerable tissues and explains differences in frost damage. Budbreak was monitored from 2015 to 2021 in 371 trees from five provenances originating between 48° and 53° N and planted in a common garden at 48° N. Frost damages were assessed on the same trees through the proportion of damaged buds per tree and related to the phenological phases by ordinal regressions. After an unusually warm spring, minimum temperatures fell to -1.9°C on May 28 and 29, 2021. At this moment, trees from the northern provenances were more advanced in their phenology and showed more frost damage. Provenances with earlier budbreak had a higher probability of damage occurrence according to ordinal regression. Our study highlights the importance of intra-specific variability of phenological traits on the risk of frost exposure. We provide evidence that the timings of bud phenology affect sensitivity to frost, leading to damages at temperatures of -1.9°C. Under the same conditions, the earlier growth reactivation observed in the northern provenances increases the risks of late frost damage on the developing buds.

Leaf out time correlates with wood anatomy across large geographic scales and within local communities

There is a long-standing idea that the timing of leaf production in seasonally cold climates is linked to xylem anatomy, specifically vessel diameter because of the hydraulic requirements of expanding leaves. We tested for a relationship between the timing of leaf out and vessel diameter in 220 plants in three common gardens accounting for species' phylogenetic relationships. We investigated how vessel diameter related to wood porosity, plant height and leaf length. We also used dye perfusion tests to determine whether plants relied on xylem produced during the previous growing season at the time of leaf out. In all three gardens, there was later leaf out in species with wider vessels. Ring-porous species had the widest vessels, exhibited latest leaf out and relied less on xylem made during the previous growing season than diffuse-porous species. Wood anatomy and leaf phenology did not exhibit a phylogenetic signal. The timing of leaf out is correlated with wood anatomy across species regardless of species' geographic origin and phylogenetic relationships. This correlation could be a result of developmental and physiological links between leaves and wood or tied to a larger safety efficiency trade-off.

Woody species do not differ in dormancy progression: Differences in time to budbreak due to forcing and cold hardiness

Budbreak is one of the most observed and studied phenological phases in perennial plants, but predictions remain a challenge, largely due to our poor understanding of dormancy. Two dimensions of exposure to temperature are generally used to model budbreak: accumulation of time spent at low temperatures (chilling) and accumulation of heat units (forcing). These two effects have a well-established negative correlation; with more chilling, less forcing is required for budbreak. Furthermore, temperate plant species are assumed to vary in chilling requirements for dormancy completion allowing proper budbreak. Here, dormancy is investigated from the cold hardiness standpoint across many species, demonstrating that it should be accounted for to study dormancy and accurately predict budbreak. Most cold hardiness is lost prior to budbreak, but rates of cold hardiness loss (deacclimation) vary among species, leading to different times to budbreak. Within a species, deacclimation rate increases with accumulation of chill. When inherent differences between species in deacclimation rate are accounted for by normalizing rates throughout winter by the maximum rate observed, a standardized deacclimation potential is produced. Deacclimation potential is a quantitative measurement of dormancy progression based on responsiveness to forcing as chill accumulates, which increases similarly for all species, contradicting estimations of dormancy transition based on budbreak assays. This finding indicates that comparisons of physiologic and genetic control of dormancy require an understanding of cold hardiness dynamics. Thus, an updated framework for studying dormancy and its effects on spring phenology is suggested where cold hardiness in lieu of (or in addition to) budbreak is used.

A review on trade-offs at the warm and cold ends of geographical distributions

Species' range limits are ubiquitous. This suggests that the evolution of the ecological niche is constrained in general and at the edges of distributions in particular. While there may be many ecological and genetic reasons for this phenomenon, here we focus on the potential role of trade-offs. We performed a literature search on evidence for trade-offs associated with geographical or elevational range limits. The majority of trade-offs were reported as relevant at either the cold end of species' distribution (n = 19), the warm or dry end (n = 19) or both together (n = 14). One common type of trade-off involved accelerating growth or development (27%), often at the cost of small size. Another common type involved resistance to or tolerance of climatic extremes that occur at certain periods of the year (64%), often at the cost of small size or reduced growth. Trade-offs overlapped with some of the classic trade-offs reported in life-history evolution or thermal adaptation. The results highlight several general insights about species' niches and ranges, and we outline how future research should better integrate the ecological context and test for the presence of microevolutionary trade-offs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Impact of successive spring frosts on leaf phenology and radial growth in three deciduous tree species with contrasting climate requirements in central Spain

Rear-edge tree populations forming the equatorward limit of distribution of temperate species are assumed to be more adapted to climate variability than central (core) populations. However, climate is expected to become more variable and the frequency of climate extremes is forecasted to increase. Climatic extreme events such as heat waves, dry spells and spring frosts could become more frequent, and negatively impact and jeopardize rear-edge stands. To evaluate these ideas, we analyzed the growth response of trees to successive spring frosts in a mixed forest, where two temperate deciduous species, Fagus sylvatica L. (European beech) and Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl. (sessile oak), both at their southernmost edge, coexist with the Mediterranean Quercus pyrenaica Willd. (Pyrenean oak). Growth reductions in spring-frost years ranked across species as F. sylvatica > Q. petraea > Q. pyrenaica. Leaf flushing occurred earlier in F. sylvatica and later in Q. pyrenaica, suggesting that leaf phenology was a strong determinant of spring frost damage and stem growth reduction. The frost impact depended on prior climate conditions, since warmer days prior to frost occurrence predisposed to frost damage. Autumn Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data showed delayed leaf senescence in spring-frost years and subsequent years as compared with pre-frost years. In the studied forest, the negative impact of spring frosts on Q. petraea and especially on F. sylvatica growth, was considerably higher than the impacts due to drought. The succession of four spring frosts in the last two decades determined a trend of decreasing resistance of radial growth to frosts in F. sylvatica. The increased frequency of spring frosts might prevent the expansion and persistence of F. sylvatica in this rear-edge Mediterranean population.

Divergent Responses of Floral Traits of Lonicera nervosa to Altitudinal Gradients at the Eastern Margin of Hengduan Mountains

Understanding phenotypic responses is crucial for predicting and managing the effects of environmental change on native species. Color and display size are typically used to evaluate the utilization value of ornamental plants, which are also important ornamental characters of Lonicera nervosa Maxim. (L. nervosa). However, there is limited documentation of its floral environmental adaptation. The environmental conditions for the development of an organism changes with altitudinal variation. The aim of this research was to find flower trait variability maintenance and the tradeoff among the organs in five different populations of L. nervosa growing at distinct altitudes. We investigated the distribution patterns of floral color, floral display, and biomass tradeoff along a 700-m altitude gradient from 2,950 to 3,650 m. One-way ANOVA analysis was performed to assess the variability of flower traits and floral color across different altitudes. Moreover, correlations and tradeoffs between flowers and vegetative organs were also observed at different altitude ranges. The results indicated that L. nervosa flowers had a strong adaptability along the elevation and divergent altitude-range-specific patterns, which was divided by an altitude breakpoint at around 3,300 m. Below 3,300 m, petal lightness (petal L) decreased, but total floral display area (TFDA), individual floral dry mass (IFDM), and total floral dry mass (TFDM) increased with an increase in altitude. Whereas, above 3,300 m no significant difference was observed in petal L, TFDA, IFDM, and TFDM decreased slightly with an increase in altitude. The responsibility for the selection on floral color at a lower altitude was stronger than that at a higher altitude, while the selection agents on floral biomass had significant effects within the entire altitude range. However, the effects on floral biomass were opposite on both sides of 3,300 m. Thus, floral trait and floral color can be useful indicators for the domestication of horticultural plants and help to evaluate and initiate management and conservation actions.

The growing and vital role of botanical gardens in climate change research

Botanical gardens make unique contributions to climate change research, conservation, and public engagement. They host unique resources, including diverse collections of plant species growing in natural conditions, historical records, and expert staff, and attract large numbers of visitors and volunteers. Networks of botanical gardens spanning biomes and continents can expand the value of these resources. Over the past decade, research at botanical gardens has advanced our understanding of climate change impacts on plant phenology, physiology, anatomy, and conservation. For example, researchers have utilized botanical garden networks to assess anatomical and functional traits associated with phenological responses to climate change. New methods have enhanced the pace and impact of this research, including phylogenetic and comparative methods, and online databases of herbarium specimens and photographs that allow studies to expand geographically, temporally, and taxonomically in scope. Botanical gardens have grown their community and citizen science programs, informing the public about climate change and monitoring plants more intensively than is possible with garden staff alone. Despite these advances, botanical gardens are still underutilized in climate change research. To address this, we review recent progress and describe promising future directions for research and public engagement at botanical gardens.

Late spring freezes coupled with warming winters alter temperate tree phenology and growth

Spring phenology is advancing with warming but late spring freezes may not advance at the same rate, potentially leading to an increase in freezes after trees initiate budburst. Research suggests warming winters may delay budburst through reduced chilling, which may cause plants to leafout more slowly, thus decreasing spring freeze tolerance. Here, we assessed the effects of late spring freezes and reduced over-winter chilling on sapling phenology, growth and tissue traits, across eight temperate tree and shrub species in a laboratory experiment. We found that spring freezes delayed leafout - extending the period of greatest risk for freeze damage - increased damage to the shoot apical meristem, and decreased leaf toughness and leaf thickness. Longer chilling accelerated budburst and leafout, even under spring freeze conditions. Thus, chilling compensated for the adverse effects of late spring freezes on phenology. Despite the effects of spring freezes and chilling on phenology, we did not see any major reordering in the sequence of species leafout. Our results suggest climate change may impact forest communities not through temporal reassembly, but rather through impacts on phenology and growth from the coupled effects of late spring freezes and decreased over-winter chilling under climate change.

The cold range limit of trees

At high elevation or latitude, trees reach low-temperature range limits. In attempting an explanation, the range limits of individual tree species (set by freezing tolerance) and the general limit of the life-form tree (set by thermal growth constraints) need to be distinguished. The general cold edge of the fundamental niche of trees is termed the treeline, by definition, the lower edge of the alpine belt, a most important bioclimatological reference line. Trees can be absent from the treeline due to disturbances or biotic interactions. The actual local edge of tree distribution, the delineation of the realized niche, is driven by stochastic effects. Therefore, treeline theory and hypothesis testing is inevitably tied to the fundamental niche concept.

Standardization of electrolyte leakage data and a novel liquid nitrogen control improve measurements of cold hardiness in woody tissue

BACKGROUND

A variety of basic and applied research programs in plant biology require the accurate and reliable determination of plant tissue cold hardiness. Over the past 50 years, the electrolyte leakage method has emerged as a popular and practical method for quantifying the amount of damage inflicted on plant tissue by exposure to freezing temperatures. Numerous approaches for carrying out this method and analyzing the resultant data have emerged. These include multiple systems for standardizing and modeling raw electrolyte leakage data and multiple protocols for boiling or autoclaving samples in order to maximize leakage as a positive control. We compare four different routines for standardization of leakage data and assess a novel control method-immersion in liquid nitrogen in lieu of traditional autoclaving-and apply them to woody twigs collected from 12 maple (Acer) species in early spring. We compare leakage data from these samples using each of four previously published forms of data analysis and autoclaving vs. liquid nitrogen controls and validate each of these approaches against visual estimates of freezing damage and differential thermal analysis.

RESULTS

Through presentation of our own data and re-analysis of previously published findings, we show that standardization of raw data against estimates of both minimum and maximum attainable freezing damage allows for reliable estimation of cold hardiness at the species level and across studies in diverse systems. Furthermore, use of our novel liquid nitrogen control produces data commensurate across studies and enhances the consistency and realism of the electrolyte leakage method, especially for very cold hardy samples.

CONCLUSION

Future leakage studies that relativize data against minimum and maximum leakage and that employ our updated liquid nitrogen control will contribute generalizable, repeatable, and realistic data to the existing body of cold hardiness research in woody plants. Data from studies conducted using a liquid nitrogen (and not an autoclaving) control can still be compared to previously published data, especially when raw data are standardized using the best-performing approach among those we assessed. Electrolyte leakage of woody twigs emerges as a useful technique for quickly assessing the probability of tissue death in response to freezing in dormant plants. Differential thermal analysis may provide different and complementary information on cold hardiness.

Chilled to be forced: the best dose to wake up buds from winter dormancy

Over the last decades, spring leaf-out of temperate and boreal trees has substantially advanced in response to global warming, affecting terrestrial biogeochemical fluxes and the Earth's climate system. However, it remains unclear whether leaf-out will continue to advance with further warming because species' effective chilling temperatures, as well as the amount of chilling time required to break dormancy, are still largely unknown for most forest tree species. Here, we assessed the progress of winter dormancy and quantified the efficiency of different chilling temperatures in six dominant temperate European tree species by exposing 1170 twig cuttings to a range of temperatures from -2°C to 10°C for 1, 3, 6 or 12 wk. We found that freezing temperatures were most effective for half of the species or as effective as chilling temperatures up to 10°C, that is, leading to minimum thermal time to and maximum success of budburst. Interestingly, chilling duration had a much larger effect on dormancy release than absolute chilling temperature. Our experimental results challenge the common assumption that optimal chilling temperatures range c. 4-6°C, instead revealing strong sensitivity to a large range of temperatures. These findings are valuable for improving phenological models and predicting future spring phenology in a warming world.

The European Forest Condition Monitor: Using Remotely Sensed Forest Greenness to Identify Hot Spots of Forest Decline

Forest decline, in course of climate change, has become a frequently observed phenomenon. Much of the observed decline has been associated with an increasing frequency of climate change induced hotter droughts while decline induced by flooding, late-frost, and storms also play an important role. As a consequence, tree mortality rates have increased across the globe. Despite numerous studies that have assessed forest decline and predisposing factors for tree mortality, we still lack an in-depth understanding of (I) underlying eco-physiological mechanisms, (II) the influence of varying environmental conditions related to soil, competition, and micro-climate, and (III) species-specific strategies to cope with prolonged environmental stress. To deepen our knowledge within this context, studying tree performance within larger networks seems a promising research avenue. Ideally such networks are already established during the actual period of environmental stress. One approach for identifying stressed forests suitable for such monitoring networks is to assess measures related to tree vitality in near real-time across large regions by means of satellite-borne remote sensing. Within this context, we introduce the European Forest Condition monitor (EFCM)-a remote-sensing based, freely available, interactive web information tool. The EFCM depicts forest greenness (as approximated using NDVI from MODIS at a spatial resolution of roughly 5.3 hectares) for the pixel-specific growing season across Europe and consequently allows for guiding research within the context of concurrent forest performance. To allow for inter-temporal comparability and account for pixel-specific features, all observations are set in relation to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) records over the monitoring period beginning in 2001. The EFCM provides both a quantile-based and a proportion-based product, thereby allowing for both relative and absolute comparison of forest greenness over the observational record. Based on six specific examples related to spring phenology, drought, late-frost, tree die-back on water-logged soils, an ice storm, and windthrow we exemplify how the EFCM may help identifying hotspots of extraordinary forest greenness. We discuss advantages and limitations when monitoring forest condition at large scales on the basis of moderate resolution remote sensing products to guide users toward an appropriate interpretation.

Climate change reshapes the drivers of false spring risk across European trees

Temperate forests are shaped by late spring freezes after budburst - false springs - which may shift with climate change. Research to date has generated conflicting results, potentially because few studies focus on the multiple underlying drivers of false spring risk. Here, we assessed the effects of mean spring temperature, distance from the coast, elevation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using PEP725 leafout data for six tree species across 11 648 sites in Europe, to determine which were the strongest predictors of false spring risk and how these predictors shifted with climate change. All predictors influenced false spring risk before recent warming, but their effects have shifted in both magnitude and direction with warming. These shifts have potentially magnified the variation in false spring risk among species with an increase in risk for early-leafout species (i.e. Aesculus hippocastanum, Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula) compared with a decline or no change in risk among late-leafout species (i.e. Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur). Our results show how climate change has reshaped the drivers of false spring risk, complicating forecasts of future false springs, and potentially reshaping plant community dynamics given uneven shifts in risk across species.

Minimum spring temperatures at the provenance origin drive leaf phenology in sugar maple populations

Late frost can cause damage to trees, especially to the developing bud of broadleaf species in spring. Through long-term adaptation, plants adjust leaf phenology to achieve an optimal trade-off between growing season length and frost avoidance. In this study, we aim to assess ecotypic differentiation in leaf development of sugar maple populations planted in a common garden. A total of 272 sugar maple seedlings from 29 Canadian provenances were planted at the northern boundary of the natural range, and the phenological phases of bud and leaf development were monitored during spring 2019. The wide geographical area under evaluation showed a complex seasonal pattern of temperature, with spring warming occurring later in the north and close to the sea. Overall, leaf development lasted between 20 and 36 days, from the end of May to end of June. We observed different timings and rates of leaf development among provenances, demonstrating the occurrence of ecotypes in this species. Minimum April temperatures of the original sites were able to explain such differences, while maximum April temperatures were not significant. Seedlings from sites with colder minimum April temperatures completed leaf development earlier and faster. On average, leaf development diverged by up to 6 days among provenances, with minimum April temperatures ranging from -3 to 3 °C. Our results demonstrated that the avoidance of late spring frost is a driving force of leaf development in sugar maple populations. In the colder sites, the growing season is a limiting factor for tree growth. Thus, when thermal conditions become favorable in spring, an earlier growth reactivation and high metabolic activity ensure a fast leaf emission, which maximizes the period available for photosynthesis and growth. These patterns demonstrate the long-term phenological adaptation of sugar maple populations to local climatic conditions and suggest the importance of frost events for leaf development.

Explaining the exceptional 4270 m high elevation limit of an evergreen oak in the south-eastern Himalayas

Unlike the well-understood alpine treeline, the upper range limits of tree taxa that do not reach the alpine treeline are largely unexplained. In this study, we explored the causes of the exceptionally high elevation (4270 m) occurrence of broad-leaved evergreen oaks (Quercus pannosa) in the south-eastern Himalayas. We assessed the course of freezing resistance of buds and leaves from winter to summer at the upper elevational limit of this oak species. Linked to leaf phenology, we analyzed freezing resistance and assessed minimum crown temperature for the past 65 years. We also examined potential carbon limitation at the range limit of this species. Last season buds and leaves operated at a safety margin of 5.5 and 11 K in mid-winter. Once fully dehardened early in July, last season foliage is damaged at -5.9 and new foliage at -4.6 °C. Bud break is timed for late June to early July when low temperature extremes historically were never below -3.0 °C. The monsoon regime ensures a long remaining season (149 days), thus compensating for the late onset of shoot growth. Compared with a site at 3450 m, specific leaf area is reduced, foliar non-structural carbohydrate concentrations are similar and the δ13C signal is higher, jointly suggesting that carbon limitation is unlikely at the range limit of this species. We also show that these oaks enter the growing season with fully intact (not embolized) xylem. We conclude that the interaction between phenology and freezing tolerance results in safe flushing, while still facilitating shoot maturation before winter. These factors jointly determine the upper range limit of this oak species. Our study illuminates an exceptional case of broad-leaved evergreen tree performance near the treeline, and by exploring a suite of traits, we can underpin the central role of flushing phenology in such a stressful environment.

Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia

Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.

Contrasting resistance and resilience to extreme drought and late spring frost in five major European tree species

Extreme climate events (ECEs) such as severe droughts, heat waves, and late spring frosts are rare but exert a paramount role in shaping tree species distributions. The frequency of such ECEs is expected to increase with climate warming, threatening the sustainability of temperate forests. Here, we analyzed 2,844 tree-ring width series of five dominant European tree species from 104 Swiss sites ranging from 400 to 2,200 m a.s.l. for the period 1930-2016. We found that (a) the broadleaved oak and beech are sensitive to late frosts that strongly reduce current year growth; however, tree growth is highly resilient and fully recovers within 2 years; (b) radial growth of the conifers larch and spruce is strongly and enduringly reduced by spring droughts-these species are the least resistant and resilient to droughts; (c) oak, silver fir, and to a lower extent beech, show higher resistance and resilience to spring droughts and seem therefore better adapted to the future climate. Our results allow a robust comparison of the tree growth responses to drought and spring frost across large climatic gradients and provide striking evidence that the growth of some of the most abundant and economically important European tree species will be increasingly limited by climate warming. These results could serve for supporting species selection to maintain the sustainability of forest ecosystem services under the expected increase in ECEs.

Different ways to die in a changing world: Consequences of climate change for tree species performance and survival through an ecophysiological perspective

Anthropogenic activities such as uncontrolled deforestation and increasing greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for triggering a series of environmental imbalances that affect the Earth's complex climate dynamics. As a consequence of these changes, several climate models forecast an intensification of extreme weather events over the upcoming decades, including heat waves and increasingly severe drought and flood episodes. The occurrence of such extreme weather will prompt profound changes in several plant communities, resulting in massive forest dieback events that can trigger a massive loss of biodiversity in several biomes worldwide. Despite the gravity of the situation, our knowledge regarding how extreme weather events can undermine the performance, survival, and distribution of forest species remains very fragmented. Therefore, the present review aimed to provide a broad and integrated perspective of the main biochemical, physiological, and morpho-anatomical disorders that may compromise the performance and survival of forest species exposed to climate change factors, particularly drought, flooding, and global warming. In addition, we also discuss the controversial effects of high CO2 concentrations in enhancing plant growth and reducing the deleterious effects of some extreme climatic events. We conclude with a discussion about the possible effects that the factors associated with the climate change might have on species distribution and forest composition.

Estimating late spring frost-induced growth anomalies in European beech forests in Italy

Weather extremes and extreme climate events, like late spring frosts, are expected to increase in frequency and duration during the next decades. Although spring phenology of European beech is well adapted to escape freeze damages on longer time scales, the effects of occasional late spring frosts (LSF) are among the main climatic damages to these forests to such an extent that they limit beech distribution and elevation range, especially at its southern margin. The aim of this work was to evaluate the short-term effects of two consecutive LSF events occurred in 2016 and 2017 in Italy on the beech forest vegetation activity. Remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST) data were used to detect the pixels where LSF occurred, while enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data were used to quantify LSF effects by computing a spring vegetation activity anomaly index (sAI). In 2016 and 2017, the LSF covered, respectively, about 29% and 32% of the total Italian beech-dominated area. The two LSF widely differed in their spatial patterns and their effects. In 2016, the pixels belonging to the sAI classes with the highest spring anomalies were also those where prolonged LSF occur, while, in 2017, the pixels belonging to the highest sAI classes were those that underwent the shorter (but probably more intense) LSF events. Under scenarios of increased frequency risk of repeated LSF, the proposed methodology may represent an automatic and low-cost tool both for monitoring and predicting European beech growth patterns.

Frost controls spring phenology of juvenile Smith fir along elevational gradients on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Impacts of climatic means on spring phenology are well documented, whereas the role of climatic variance, such as occurrence of spring frosts, has long been neglected. A large elevational gradient of forests on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau provides an ideal platform to explore correlates of spring phenology and environmental factors. We tested the hypothesis that spring frost was a major factor regulating the timing of bud-leaf phenology by combining 5 years of in situ phenological observations of Abies georgei var. smithii with concurrent air temperature data along two altitudinal gradients. Mean lapse rate for the onset of bud swelling and leaf unfolding was 3.1 ± 0.5 days/100 m and 3.0 ± 0.6 days/100 m, respectively. Random forest analysis and conditional inference trees revealed that the frequency of freezing events was a critical factor in determining the timing of bud swelling, independent of topographic differences, varying accumulation of chilling days, and degree-days. In contrast, the onset of leaf unfolding was primarily controlled by the bud swelling onset. Thus, the timing of bud swelling and leaf unfolding appear to be controlled directly and indirectly, respectively, by spring frost. Using space-for-time substitution, the frequency of spring freezing events decreased by 7.1 days with 1 °C of warming. This study provides evidence for impacts of late spring frosts on spring phenology, which have been underappreciated in research on phenological sensitivity to climate but should be included in phenology models. Fewer spring freezing events with warming have important implications for the upward migration of alpine forests and treelines.

Deep supercooling enabled by surface impregnation with lipophilic substances explains the survival of overwintering buds at extreme freezing

The frost survival mechanism of vegetative buds of angiosperms was suggested to be extracellular freezing causing dehydration, elevated osmotic potential to prevent freezing. However, extreme dehydration would be needed to avoid freezing at the temperatures down to -45°C encountered by many trees. Buds of Alnus alnobetula, in common with other frost hardy angiosperms, excrete a lipophilic substance, whose functional role remains unclear. Freezing of buds was studied by infrared thermography, psychrometry, and cryomicroscopy. Buds of A. alnobetula did not survive by extracellular ice tolerance but by deep supercooling, down to -45°C. An internal ice barrier prevented ice penetration from the frozen stem into the bud. Cryomicroscopy revealed a new freezing mechanism. Until now, supercooled buds lost water towards ice masses that form in the subtending stem and/or bud scales. In A. alnobetula, ice forms harmlessly inside the bud between the supercooled leaves. This would immediately trigger intracellular freezing and kill the supercooled bud in other species. In A. alnobetula, lipophilic substances (triterpenoids and flavonoid aglycones) impregnate the surface of bud leaves. These prevent extrinsic ice nucleation so allowing supercooling. This suggests a means to protect forestry and agricultural crops from extrinsic ice nucleation allowing transient supercooling during night frosts.

Rethinking false spring risk

Temperate plants are at risk of being exposed to late spring freezes. These freeze events-often called false springs-are one of the strongest factors determining temperate plants species range limits and can impose high ecological and economic damage. As climate change may alter the prevalence and severity of false springs, our ability to forecast such events has become more critical, and it has led to a growing body of research. Many false spring studies largely simplify the myriad complexities involved in assessing false spring risks and damage. While these studies have helped advance the field and may provide useful estimates at large scales, studies at the individual to community levels must integrate more complexity for accurate predictions of plant damage from late spring freezes. Here, we review current metrics of false spring, and how, when, and where plants are most at risk of freeze damage. We highlight how life stage, functional group, species differences in morphology and phenology, and regional climatic differences contribute to the damage potential of false springs. More studies aimed at understanding relationships among species tolerance and avoidance strategies, climatic regimes, and the environmental cues that underlie spring phenology would improve predictions at all biological levels. An integrated approach to assessing past and future spring freeze damage would provide novel insights into fundamental plant biology and offer more robust predictions as climate change progresses, which are essential for mitigating the adverse ecological and economic effects of false springs.

Freezing resistance, safety margins, and survival vary among big sagebrush populations across the western United States

PREMISE

Physiological responses to temperature extremes are considered strong drivers of species' demographic responses to climate variability. Plants are typically classified as either avoiders or tolerators in their freezing-resistance mechanism, but a gradient of physiological-threshold freezing responses may exist among individuals of a species. Moreover, adaptive significance of physiological freezing responses is poorly characterized, particularly under warming conditions that relax selection on cold hardiness.

METHODS

Freezing responses were measured in winter and again for new foliage in spring for 14 populations of Artemisia tridentata collected throughout its range and planted in a warm common garden. The relationships of the freezing responses to survival were evaluated in the warm garden and in two colder gardens.

RESULTS

Winter and spring freezing resistance were not correlated and appeared to be under differing selection regimes, as evident in correlations with different population climate of origin variables. All populations resisted considerably lower temperatures in winter than in spring, with populations from more continental climates showing narrower freezing safety margins (difference in temperatures at which ice-nucleation occurs and 50% reduction in chlorophyll fluorescence occurs) in spring. Populations with greater winter freezing resistance had lower survivorship in the warmest garden, while populations with greater spring freezing resistance had lower survivorship in a colder garden.

CONCLUSIONS

These survivorship patterns relative to physiological thresholds suggest excess freezing resistance may incur a survival cost that likely relates to a trade-off between carbon gain and freezing resistance during critical periods of moisture availability. This cost has implications for seed moved from cooler to warmer environments and for plants growing in warming environments.

Frost Survival Mechanism of Vegetative Buds in Temperate Trees: Deep Supercooling and Extraorgan Freezing vs. Ice Tolerance

In temperate climates, overwintering buds of trees are often less cold hardy than adjoining stem tissues or evergreen leaves. However, data are scarce regarding the freezing resistance (FR) of buds and the underlying functional frost survival mechanism that in case of supercooling can restrict the geographic distribution. Twigs of 37 temperate woody species were sampled in midwinter 2016 in the Austrian Inn valley. After assessment of FR, infrared-video-thermography and cryo-microscopy were used to study the freezing pattern in and around overwintering vegetative buds. Only in four species, after controlled ice nucleation in the stem (-1.6 ± 0.9°C) ice was observed to immediately invade the bud. These buds tolerated extracellular ice and were the most freezing resistant (-61.8°C mean LT50). In all other species (33), the buds remained supercooled and free of ice, despite a frozen stem. A structural ice barrier prevents ice penetration. Extraorgan ice masses grew in the stem and scales but in 50% of the species between premature supercooled leaves. Two types of supercooled buds were observed: in temporary supercooling buds (14 species) ice spontaneously nucleated at -20.5 ± 4,6°C. This freezing process appeared to be intracellular as it matched the bud killing temperature (-22.8°C mean LT50). This response rendered temporarily supercooled buds as least cold hardy. In 19 species, the buds remained persistently supercooled down to below the killing temperature without indication for the cause of damage. Although having a moderate midwinter FR of -31.6°C (LT50), some species within this group attained a FR similar to ice tolerant buds. The present study represents the first comprehensive overview of frost survival mechanisms of vegetative buds of temperate trees. Except for four species that were ice tolerant, the majority of buds survive in a supercooled state, remaining free of ice. In 50% of species, extraorgan ice masses harmlessly grew between premature supercooled leaves. Despite exposure to the same environmental demand, midwinter FR of buds varied intra-specifically between -17.0 and -90.0°C. Particularly, species, whose buds are killed after temporary supercooling, have a lower maximum FR, which limits their geographic distribution.

Daily Maximum Temperatures Induce Lagged Effects on Leaf Unfolding in Temperate Woody Species Across Large Elevational Gradients

The timing of leaf unfolding in temperate woody species is predominantly controlled by the seasonal course of temperature in late winter and early spring. However, quantifying lagged temperature effects on spring phenology is still challenging. Here, we aimed at investigating lagged and potentially non-linear effects of daily maximum temperatures on the probability of leaf unfolding in temperate woody species growing across large elevational gradients. We analyzed 5280 observations of leaf-out time of four tree species (European beech, horse chestnut, European larch, Norway spruce) and one shrub species (common hazel) that were recorded by volunteers over 40 years at 42 locations in Switzerland. We used a case-crossover sampling design to match leaf-out dates with control dates (i.e., dates before or after leaf-out), and analyzed these data with conditional logistic regression accounting for lagged temperature effects over 60 days. Multivariate meta-analyses were used to synthesize lagged temperature and elevational effects on leaf unfolding across multiple phenological stations. Temperature effects on the probability of leaf unfolding were largest at relatively short lags (i.e., within ca. 10 days) and decreased with increasing lags. Short- to mid-term effects (i.e., within ca. 10 to 20 days) were larger for late-leafing species known to be photoperiod-sensitive (beech, Norway spruce). Temperature effects increased for the broadleaved species (horse chestnut, hazel, beech) with decreasing elevation, particularly within ca. 10 to 40 days, i.e., leaf unfolding occurs more rapidly at low elevations for a given daily maximum temperature. Our novel findings provide evidence of cumulative and long-term temperature effects on leaf unfolding, whereby the efficiency of relatively high temperatures to trigger leaf-out becomes higher shortly before bud burst. These lagged associations between temperature and leaf unfolding improve our understanding of phenological responses across temperate woody species with differing ecological requirements that occur along elevational gradients.

Temperature and photoperiod drive spring phenology across all species in a temperate forest community

Accurate predictions of spring plant phenology with climate change are critical for projections of growing seasons, plant communities and a number of ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Progress towards prediction, however, has been slow because the major cues known to drive phenology - temperature (including winter chilling and spring forcing) and photoperiod - generally covary in nature and may interact, making accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change complex and nonlinear. Alternatively, recent work suggests many species may be dominated by one cue, which would make predictions much simpler. Here, we manipulated all three cues across 28 woody species from two North American forests. All species responded to all cues examined. Chilling exerted a strong effect, especially on budburst (-15.8 d), with responses to forcing and photoperiod greatest for leafout (-19.1 and -11.2 d, respectively). Interactions between chilling and forcing suggest that each cue may compensate somewhat for the other. Cues varied across species, leading to staggered leafout within each community and supporting the idea that phenology is a critical aspect of species' temporal niches. Our results suggest that predicting the spring phenology of communities will be difficult, as all species we studied could have complex, nonlinear responses to future warming.

Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate

Spring frosts, as experienced in Europe in April 2016 and 2017, pose a considerable risk to agricultural production, with the potential to cause significant damages to agricultural yields. Meteorological blocking events (stable high-pressure systems) have been shown to be one of the factors that trigger cold spells in spring. While current knowledge does not allow for drawing conclusions as to any change in future frequency and duration of blocking episodes due to climate change, the combination of their stable occurrence with the biological system under a warming trend can lead to economic damage increases. To evaluate future frost risk for apple producers in south-eastern Styria, we combine a phenological sequential model with highly resolved climate projections for Austria. Our model projects a mean advance of blooming of -1.6 ± 0.9 days per decade, shifting the bloom onset towards early April by the end of the 21st century. Our findings indicate that overall frost risk for apple cultures will remain in a warmer climate and potentially even increase due to a stronger connection between blocking and cold spells in early spring that can be identified from observational data. To prospectively deal with frost risk, measures are needed that either stabilize crop yields or ensure farmers' income by other means. We identify appropriate adaptation measures and relate their costs to the potential frost risk increase. Even if applied successfully, the costs of these measures in combination with future residual damages represent additional climate change related costs.

Climate-induced shifts in leaf unfolding and frost risk of European trees and shrubs

Climate warming has advanced leaf unfolding of trees and shrubs, thus extending the growing period but potentially exposing plants to increased frost risk. The relative shifts in the timing of leaf unfolding vs. the timing and intensity of frost events determine whether frost risk changes under climate warming. Here we test whether the frost risk for unfolding leaves of 13 European tree and shrub species has changed over more than 60 years using dynamic state-space models and phenological observations from 264 sites located between 200 and 1900 m a.s.l. across Switzerland. Trees and shrubs currently feature sufficient safety margins regarding frost risk, which increase from early- to late-leafing species and tend to decrease with increasing elevation. Particularly after 1970 to 1990 and at higher elevations, leaf unfolding has advanced across all species. While the time between the last critical frost and leaf unfolding has shifted from predominantly positive trends in the late 1950s and 1960s to a trend reversal since the 2000s, the minimum temperature during leaf unfolding has mostly increased since the 1980s. These dynamic shifts in leaf unfolding and frost risk demonstrate species- and site-specific responses of trees and shrubs to climate cooling and warming.

Extension of the growing season increases vegetation exposure to frost

While climate warming reduces the occurrence of frost events, the warming-induced lengthening of the growing season of plants in the Northern Hemisphere may actually induce more frequent frost days during the growing season (GSFDs, days with minimum temperature < 0 °C). Direct evidence of this hypothesis, however, is limited. Here we investigate the change in the number of GSFDs at latitudes greater than 30° N using remotely-sensed and in situ phenological records and three minimum temperature (T_min) data sets from 1982 to 2012. While decreased GSFDs are found in northern Siberia, the Tibetan Plateau, and northwestern North America (mainly in autumn), ~43% of the hemisphere, especially in Europe, experienced a significant increase in GSFDs between 1982 and 2012 (mainly during spring). Overall, regions with larger increases in growing season length exhibit larger increases in GSFDs. Climate warming thus reduces the total number of frost days per year, but GSFDs nonetheless increase in many areas.

Plant growing season increases under a warming climate, but it is not known whether this will alter plant exposure to frost days. Here Liu et al. investigate trends in the Northern Hemisphere over 30 years and find increased exposure to frost days in regions that have longer growing seasons.