Climate impacts on global hot spots of marine biodiversity

Taking the Pulse of Resilience in Conserving Seagrass Meadows

Foundational habitats such as seagrasses and coral reefs are at severe risk globally from climate warming. Infectious disease associated with warming events is both a cause of decline and an indicator of stress in both habitats. Since new approaches are needed to detect refugia and design climate-smart networks of marine protected areas, we test the hypothesis that the health of eelgrass (Zostera marina) in temperate ecosystems can serve as a proxy indicative of higher resilience and help pinpoint refugia. Eelgrass meadows worldwide are at risk from environmental stressors, including climate warming and disease. Disease outbreaks of Labyrinthula zosterae are associated with recent, widespread declines in eelgrass meadows throughout the San Juan Islands, Washington, USA. Machine language learning, drone surveys, and molecular diagnostics reveal climate impacts on seagrass wasting disease prevalence (proportion of infected individuals) and severity (proportion of infected leaf area) from San Diego, California, to Alaska. Given that warmer temperatures favor many pathogens such as L. zosterae, we hypothesize that absent or low disease severity in meadows could indicate eelgrass resilience to climate and pathogenic stressors. Regional surveys showed the San Juan Islands as a hotspot for both high disease prevalence and severity, and surveys throughout the Northeast Pacific indicated higher prevalence and severity in intertidal, rather than subtidal, meadows. Further, among sites with eelgrass declines, losses were more pronounced at sites with shallower eelgrass meadows. We suggest that deeper meadows with the lowest disease severity will be refuges from future warming and pathogenic stressors in the Northeast Pacific. Disease monitoring may be a useful conservation approach for marine foundation species, as low or absent disease severity can pinpoint resilient refugia that should be prioritized for future conservation efforts. Even in declining or at-risk habitats, disease surveys can help identify meadows that may contain especially resilient individuals for future restoration efforts. Our approach of using disease as a pulse point for eelgrass resilience to multiple stressors could be applied to other habitats such as coral reefs to inform conservation and management decisions.

Redistribution of vocal snapping shrimps under climate change

A variety of marine organisms can produce sounds that are important components of the marine soundscape and play a critical role in maintaining marine biodiversity. Climate change has greatly altered the geographical ranges of many marine species, including sound-producing organisms. However, the direction and the magnitude of the potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of sound-producing marine organisms in future remain largely unknown. To address this knowledge gap, we selected snapping shrimp, one of the most well-known marine sound-producing organisms, as a model species and explored their redistribution under climate change via species distribution models. We aimed to predict the redistribution of snapping shrimps under climate change and identify the influencing factors, which have important implications for marine conservation. Our models exhibited good discrimination abilities and identified maximum temperature as the most influential predictor of snapping shrimp distribution. Model predictions suggested that species richness is higher in tropical and temperate coastal waters and peaks in the Indo-Pacific region. The majority of snapping shrimp species are expected to respond to the changing climate by shifting their geographical ranges to deeper waters and higher latitudes. Our results showed that, in the future, high-latitude species were more likely to experience range expansion, whereas low-latitude species might experience range contraction. Moreover, the Central Indo-Pacific are predicted to suffer the biggest decline in species richness, whereas areas such as the coastal waters of southern Australia and northern China might serve as climate refuges for snapping shrimps in the future. In summary, this study highlights the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of sound-producing snapping shrimps, which may result in cascading effects on marine ecosystems.

Inferring the extinction risk of marine fish to inform global conservation priorities

While extinction risk categorization is fundamental for building robust conservation planning for marine fishes, empirical data on occurrence and vulnerability to disturbances are still lacking for most marine teleost fish species, preventing the assessment of their International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) status. In this article, we predicted the IUCN status of marine fishes based on two machine learning algorithms, trained with available species occurrences, biological traits, taxonomy, and human uses. We found that extinction risk for marine fish species is higher than initially estimated by the IUCN, increasing from 2.5% to 12.7%. Species predicted as Threatened were mainly characterized by a small geographic range, a relatively large body size, and a low growth rate. Hotspots of predicted Threatened species peaked mainly in the South China Sea, the Philippine Sea, the Celebes Sea, the west coast Australia and North America. We also explored the consequences of including these predicted species' IUCN status in the prioritization of marine protected areas through conservation planning. We found a marked increase in prioritization ranks for subpolar and polar regions despite their low species richness. We suggest to integrate multifactorial ensemble learning to assess species extinction risk and offer a more complete view of endangered taxonomic groups to ultimately reach global conservation targets like the extending coverage of protected areas where species are the most vulnerable.

Cumulative risk of future bleaching for the world's coral reefs

Spatial and temporal patterns of future coral bleaching are uncertain, hampering global conservation efforts to protect coral reefs against climate change. Our analysis of daily projections of ocean warming establishes the severity, annual duration, and onset of severe bleaching risk for global coral reefs this century, pinpointing vital climatic refugia. We show that low-latitude coral regions are most vulnerable to thermal stress and will experience little reprieve from climate mitigation. By 2080, coral bleaching is likely to start on most reefs in spring, rather than late summer, with year-round bleaching risk anticipated to be high for some low-latitude reefs regardless of global efforts to mitigate harmful greenhouse gasses. By identifying Earth's reef regions that are at lowest risk of accelerated bleaching, our results will prioritize efforts to limit future loss of coral reef biodiversity.

Retrospective analysis of the pelagic ecosystem of the Western Mediterranean Sea: Drivers, changes and effects

In the Western Mediterranean Sea, forage fishes have changed in abundance, body condition, growth, reproduction, and distribution in the last decades. Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain these changes, including increase in fishing mortality; changes in environmental conditions affecting species fitness, and planktonic productivity and quality; recovery of top predators; and increase in competitors. We investigated the main drivers and changes of the pelagic ecosystem and their effects using an ecosystem-based modelling approach. Specifically, we (1) quantified the potential historical contribution of various drivers of change, (2) investigated changes in temporal trends and spatial distributions of main ecosystem components, and (3) identified ecological consequences of these changes in top predator and competitors, their fisheries and ecosystem traits during 2000-2020. We updated an established Ecopath food-web model representing the Spanish and French Mediterranean sub-areas (GSA06 and GSA07) in 2000 with recent available data. We applied the temporal dynamic Ecosim module, and tested historical time series of fishing effort, fishing mortality and environmental factors as potential drivers. Observed biomass and landings of key species were used to validate model projections. A spatial-temporal Ecospace model was developed to project species distribution changes. Results showed historical biomass and catch changes driven by a combination of high fishing pressure and environmental change (i.e. increase in temperature and salinity, and decline in primary productivity). Small pelagic fish showed significant temporal changes and predicted shifts in their distributions, following a latitudinal gradient. Predators and competitors showed changes as well, displaying heterogeneous spatial patterns, while fisheries landings declined. Overall, results matched observations (e.g., decline of sardine, fluctuations of anchovy and increases in bluefin tuna) and illustrated the need to complement traditional assessments with integrative frameworks to move towards an ecosystem-based approach in the Mediterranean. They also highlighted important knowledge gaps to guide future research in the region.

Climate and human stressors on global penguin hotspots: Current assessments for future conservation

As charismatic and iconic species, penguins can act as "ambassadors" or flagship species to promote the conservation of marine habitats in the Southern Hemisphere. Unfortunately, there is a lack of reliable, comprehensive, and systematic analysis aimed at compiling spatially explicit assessments of the multiple impacts that the world's 18 species of penguin are facing. We provide such an assessment by combining the available penguin occurrence information from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (>800,000 occurrences) with three main stressors: climate-driven environmental changes at sea, industrial fisheries, and human disturbances on land. Our analyses provide a quantitative assessment of how these impacts are unevenly distributed spatially within species' distribution ranges. Consequently, contrasting pressures are expected among species, and populations within species. The areas coinciding with the greatest impacts for penguins are the coast of Perú, the Patagonian Shelf, the Benguela upwelling region, and the Australian and New Zealand coasts. When weighting these potential stressors with species-specific vulnerabilities, Humboldt (Spheniscus humboldti), African (Spheniscus demersus), and Chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarcticus) emerge as the species under the most pressure. Our approach explicitly differentiates between climate and human stressors, since the more achievable management of local anthropogenic stressors (e.g., fisheries and land-based threats) may provide a suitable means for facilitating cumulative impacts on penguins, especially where they may remain resilient to global processes such as climate change. Moreover, our study highlights some poorly represented species such as the Northern Rockhopper (Eudyptes moseleyi), Snares (Eudyptes robustus), and Erect-crested penguin (Eudyptes sclateri) that need internationally coordinated efforts for data acquisition and data sharing to understand their spatial distribution properly.

The role of satellite remote sensing in mitigating and adapting to global climate change

Climate change has critical adverse impacts on human society and poses severe challenges to global sustainable development. Information on essential climate variables (ECVs) that reflects the substantial changes that have occurred on Earth is critical for assessing the influence of climate change. Satellite remote sensing (SRS) technology has led to a new era of observations and provides multiscale information on ECVs that is independent of in situ measurements and model simulations. This enhances our understanding of climate change from space and supports policy-making in combating climate change. However, it remains challenging to remotely retrieve ECVs due to the complexity of the climate system. We provide an update on the studies on the role of SRS in climate change research, specifically in monitoring and quantifying ECVs in the atmosphere (greenhouse gases, clouds and aerosols), ocean (sea surface temperature, sea ice melt and sea level rise, ocean currents and mesoscale eddies, phytoplankton and ocean productivity), and terrestrial ecosystems (land use and land cover change and carbon flux, water resource and hydrological hazards, solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and terrestrial gross primary production). The benefits and challenges of applying SRS in climate change studies are also examined and discussed. This work will help us apply SRS and recommend future SRS studies to mitigate and adapt to global climate change.

High polychaete diversity in the Gulf of Guinea (West African continental margin): The influence of local and intermediate scale ecological factors on a background of regional patterns

The Tropical East Atlantic is one of the least studied areas in the world's oceans, and thus a blank spot on the map of marine studies. Shaped by dynamic currents and shifting water masses, it is a key region in discussions about marine ecology, biodiversity, and zoogeography, while facing numerous, poorly understood, and unmonitored threats associated with climate change, acidification, and pollution. Polychaete diversity was assessed along four transects along the Ghana coast, from shallow to deep bottoms and distributed along the whole upwelling marine ecoregion. Despite high sampling effort, steep species accumulation curves demonstrated the necessity of further sampling in the region. We observed zonation of fauna by depth, and a decrease in species richness from 25 m to 1000 m depth. Polychaete communities were influenced by sediment type, presence of oxygen minimum zones, and local disturbances caused by elevated barium concentrations. Similar evenness along the depth gradient reflected the importance of rare species in the community structure. Differences in phylogenetic diversity, as reflected by taxonomic distinctness, were small, which suggested high ecosystem stability. The highly variable species richness at small scale (meters) showed the importance of ecological factors giving rise to microhabitat diversity, although we also noticed intermediate scale (50-300 km) differences affecting community structure. About 44 % of the species were rare (i.e. recorded only in three or fewer samples), highlighting the level of patchiness, while one fifth was distributed on all transects, therefore along the whole upwelling ecoregion, demonstrating the influence of the regional species pool on local communities at particular stations. Our study yielded 253 species, increasing the number of polychaetes known from this region by at least 50 %. This casts doubt on previous findings regarding Atlantic bioregionalization, biodiversity estimates and endemism, which appear to have been more pronouncedly affected by sampling bias than previously thought.

Insights into accumulation of active ingredients and rhizosphere microorganisms between Salvia miltiorrhiza and S. castanea

Salvia miltiorrhiza is an important traditional herbal medicine, and its extracts could be used for treating cardiovascular disease. Although these medicinal compounds are functionally similar, their wild relative, S. castanea, produces significantly different concentrations of these compounds. The reason for their differences is still unknown. In a series of soil and plant-based analyses, we explored and compared the rhizosphere microbiome of S. miltiorrhiza and S. castanea. To further investigate the geographical distribution of S. castanea, MaxEnt models were used to predict the future suitable habitat areas of S. castanea in China. Results revealed the distributions and structure of the rhizosphere microbial community of S. miltiorrhiza and S. castanea at different times. In addition, differences in altitude and soil moisture resulting from changes in climate and geographical location are also critical environmental factors in the distribution of S. castanea. The findings of this study increase our understanding of plant adaptation to their geographical environment through secondary metabolites. It also highlights the complex interplay between rhizospheric factors and plant metabolism, which provides the theoretical basis for the cultivation of S. miltiorrhiza and the use of S. castanea resources.

Climate adaptation and vulnerability of foundation species in a global change hotspot

Climate change is altering species ranges, and relative abundances within ranges, as populations become differentially adapted and vulnerable to the climates they face. Understanding present species ranges, whether species harbour and exchange adaptive variants, and how variants are distributed across landscapes undergoing rapid change, is therefore crucial to predicting responses to future climates and informing conservation strategies. Such insights are nonetheless lacking for most species of conservation concern. We assess genomic patterns of neutral variation, climate adaptation and climate vulnerability (offsets in predicted distributions of putatively adaptive variants across present and future landscapes) for sister foundation species, the marine tubeworms Galeolaria caespitosa and Galeolaria gemineoa, in a sentinel region for climate change impacts. We find that species are genetically isolated despite uncovering sympatry in their ranges, show parallel and nonparallel signals of thermal adaptation on spatial scales smaller than gene flow across their ranges, and are predicted to face different risks of maladaptation under future temperatures across their ranges. Our findings have implications for understanding local adaptation in the face of gene flow, and generate spatially explicit predictions for climatic disruption of adaptation and species distributions in coastal ecosystems that could guide experimental validation and conservation planning.

Sardines at a junction: Seascape genomics reveals ecological and oceanographic drivers of variation in the NW Mediterranean Sea

By evaluating genetic variation across the entire genome, one can address existing questions in a novel way while raising new ones. The latter includes how different local environments influence adaptive and neutral genomic variation within and among populations, providing insights into local adaptation of natural populations and their responses to global change. Here, under a seascape genomic approach, ddRAD data of 4609 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 398 sardines (Sardina pilchardus) collected in 11 Mediterranean and one Atlantic site were generated. These were used along with oceanographic and ecological information to detect signals of adaptive divergence with gene flow across environmental gradients. The studied sardines constitute two clusters (F_ST  = 0.07), a pattern attributed to outlier loci, highlighting putative local adaptation. The trend in the number of days with sea surface temperature above 19°C, a critical threshold for successful sardine spawning, was crucial at all levels of population structuring with implications on the species' key biological processes. Outliers link candidate SNPs to the region's environmental heterogeneity. Our findings provide evidence for a dynamic equilibrium in which population structure is maintained by physical and ecological factors under the opposing influences of migration and selection. This dynamic in a natural system warrants continuous monitoring under a seascape genomic approach that might benefit from a temporal and more detailed spatial dimension. Our results may contribute to complementary studies aimed at providing deeper insights into the mechanistic processes underlying population structuring. Those are key to understanding and predicting future changes and responses of this highly exploited species in the face of climate change.

Global habitat suitability modeling reveals insufficient habitat protection for mangrove crabs

Mangrove crabs are important components of mangrove forests however their large scale habitat suitability and conservation received little attention. The Metopograpsus thukuhar/cannicci species complex is a mangrove dwelling species occurs in the Indo-Pacific mangrove forests. Since identifying the complex suitable habitat is critical for its conservation, we modeled global habitat suitability of the complex within marine biogeographic realms and estimated representation of the complex suitable habitats within marine protected areas. We found that the complex' largest and smallest suitable ranges are located in Central Indo-Pacific and Temperate Southern Africa realms, respectively. Only 12.5% of the complex suitable habitat is protected. The highest proportion of the complex' protected suitable habitat (22.9%) is located in Western Indo-Pacific realm while the lowest proportion of the complex' protected suitable habitat (1.38%) is located in Central Indo-Pacific realm. Suitable unprotected habitats of the complex identified in this study have high priority for conservation and should be included in marine protected areas to ensure species conservation. Our results show that species distribution models are practical tools to study marine species distribution across large spatial scales and help marine conservation planning.

Ecological and Oceanographic Perspectives in Future Marine Fungal Taxonomy

Marine fungi are an ecological rather than a taxonomic group that has been widely researched. Significant progress has been made in documenting their phylogeny, biodiversity, ultrastructure, ecology, physiology, and capacity for degradation of lignocellulosic compounds. This review (concept paper) summarizes the current knowledge of marine fungal diversity and provides an integrated and comprehensive view of their ecological roles in the world's oceans. Novel terms for 'semi marine fungi' and 'marine fungi' are proposed based on the existence of fungi in various oceanic environments. The major maritime currents and upwelling that affect species diversity are discussed. This paper also forecasts under-explored regions with a greater diversity of marine taxa based on oceanic currents. The prospects for marine and semi-marine mycology are highlighted, notably, technological developments in culture-independent sequencing approaches for strengthening our present understanding of marine fungi's ecological roles.

Faster ocean warming threatens richest areas of marine biodiversity

The vulnerability of marine biodiversity to accelerated rates of climatic change is poorly understood. By developing a new method for identifying extreme oceanic warming events during Earth's most recent deglaciation, and comparing these to 21st century projections, we show that future rates of ocean warming will disproportionately affect the most speciose marine communities, potentially threatening biodiversity in more than 70% of current-day global hotspots of marine species richness. The persistence of these richest areas of marine biodiversity will require many species to move well beyond the biogeographic realm where they are endemic, at rates of redistribution not previously seen. Our approach for quantifying exposure of biodiversity to past and future rates of oceanic warming provides new context and scalable information for deriving and strengthening conservation actions to safeguard marine biodiversity under climate change.

Overfishing species on the move may burden seafood provision in the low-latitude Atlantic Ocean

Climate and fisheries interact, often synergistically, and may challenge marine ecosystem functioning and management, along with seafood provision. Here, we spatially combine highly resolved assessments of climate-driven changes in optimal environmental conditions (i.e., optimal habitats) for the pelagic fish community with available industrial fishery data to identify highly impacted inshore areas in the Central and Southern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, optimal habitat availability remained stable or decreased over recent decades for most commercial, small and medium size pelagic species, particularly in low-latitude regions. We also find a worrying overlap of these areas with fishing hotspots. Nations near the Equator (particularly along the African coast) have been doubly impacted by climate and industrial fisheries, with ultimate consequences on fish stocks and ecosystems as a whole. Management and conservation actions are urgently required to prevent species depletions and ensure seafood provisioning in these highly impacted, and often socioeconomically constrained areas. These actions may include redistributing fishing pressure and reducing it in local areas where climate forcing is particularly high, balancing resource exploitation and the conservation of marine life-supporting services in the face of climate change.

Health Status of Mytilus chilensis from Intensive Culture Areas in Chile Assessed by Molecular, Microbiological, and Histological Analyses

Shellfish farming is a relevant economic activity in Chile, where the inner sea in Chiloé island concentrates 99% of the production of the mussel Mytilus chilensis. This area is characterized by the presence of numerous human activities, which could harm the quality of seawater. Additionally, the presence of potentially pathogenic microorganisms can influence the health status of mussels, which must be constantly monitored. To have a clear viewpoint of the health status of M. chilensis and to study its potential as a host species for exotic diseases, microbiological, molecular, and histological analyses were performed. This study was carried out in October 2018, where M. chilensis gut were studied for: presence of food-borne bacteria (Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp.), exotic bacteria (“Candidatus Xenohaliotis californiensis”), viruses (abalone and Ostreid herpes virus), and protozoa (Marteilia spp., Perkinsus spp. and Bonamia spp.). Additionally, 18S rDNA metabarcoding and histology analyses were included to have a complete evaluation of the health status of M. chilensis. Overall, despite the presence of risk factors, abnormal mortality rates were not reported during the monitoring period and the histological examination did not reveal significant lesions. Pathogens of mandatory notification to World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the Chilean National Fisheries and Aquaculture Service (SERNAPESCA) were not detected, which confirms that M. chilensis have a good health status, highlighting the importance of an integrated vision of different disciplines to ensure the sustainability of this important mussel industry in Chile.

Sounding the Call for a Global Library of Underwater Biological Sounds

Aquatic environments encompass the world’s most extensive habitats, rich with sounds produced by a diversity of animals. Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) is an increasingly accessible remote sensing technology that uses hydrophones to listen to the underwater world and represents an unprecedented, non-invasive method to monitor underwater environments. This information can assist in the delineation of biologically important areas via detection of sound-producing species or characterization of ecosystem type and condition, inferred from the acoustic properties of the local soundscape. At a time when worldwide biodiversity is in significant decline and underwater soundscapes are being altered as a result of anthropogenic impacts, there is a need to document, quantify, and understand biotic sound sources–potentially before they disappear. A significant step toward these goals is the development of a web-based, open-access platform that provides: (1) a reference library of known and unknown biological sound sources (by integrating and expanding existing libraries around the world); (2) a data repository portal for annotated and unannotated audio recordings of single sources and of soundscapes; (3) a training platform for artificial intelligence algorithms for signal detection and classification; and (4) a citizen science-based application for public users. Although individually, these resources are often met on regional and taxa-specific scales, many are not sustained and, collectively, an enduring global database with an integrated platform has not been realized. We discuss the benefits such a program can provide, previous calls for global data-sharing and reference libraries, and the challenges that need to be overcome to bring together bio- and ecoacousticians, bioinformaticians, propagation experts, web engineers, and signal processing specialists (e.g., artificial intelligence) with the necessary support and funding to build a sustainable and scalable platform that could address the needs of all contributors and stakeholders into the future.

Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change

Climate change often leads to shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by changing the match-mismatch dynamics between these sensitive species within their environmental optima. Using present-day habitat suitability, we projected how different scenarios of climate change (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) may alter the large scale distribution of European sardine Sardina pilchardus (a model species) by 2050 and 2100. We evaluated the variability of species-specific environmental optima allowing a comparison between present-day and future scenarios. Regardless of the scenario, sea surface temperature and salinity and the interaction between current velocity and distance to the nearest coast were the main descriptors responsible for the main effects on sardine's distribution. Present-day and future potential "hotspots" for sardine were neritic zones (<250 km) with water currents <0.4 m s^-1, where SST was between 10 and 22 °C and SSS > 20 (PSU), on average. Most variability in projected shifts among climatic scenarios was in habitats with moderate to low suitability. By the end of this century, habitat suitability was projected to increase in the Canary Islands, Iberian Peninsula, central North Sea, northern Mediterranean, and eastern Black Sea and to decrease in the Atlantic African coast, southwest Mediterranean, English Channel, northern North Sea and Western U.K. A gradual poleward-eastward shift in sardine distribution was also projected among scenarios. This shift was most pronounced in 2100 under RCP 8.5. In that scenario, sardines had a 9.6% range expansion which included waters along the entire coast of Norway up and into the White Sea. As habitat suitability is mediated by the synergic effects of climate variability and change on species fitness, it is critical to apply models with robust underlying species-habitat data that integrate knowledge on the full range of processes shaping species productivity and distribution.

Is the current Mediterranean network of marine protected areas resilient to climate change?

Rising ocean temperature impacts the functionality and structure of ecosystems, further triggering the redistribution of biodiversity. Still, the magnitude and anticipated impacts of ocean warming are not expected to be uniform across marine space. Here, we developed a two-fold index-based approach to provide an integrated climatic vulnerability assessment of the marine surfaces which are enclosed within protected areas in the Mediterranean Sea. We first built a climatic stability index, based on metrics of analog-based velocity of climate change over a 120-year period (1950-2069), to assess patterns of climate dynamics within the marine protected surfaces. To provide a vulnerability ranking of protected surfaces under climate change, we combined this climate-related index with an index of community stability, reflecting the projected distribution shifts of 71 species of high conservation value. Our analyses revealed a highly heterogeneous and dynamic climatic space, with increasing but spatially inconsistent patterns of climate change velocities over successive 30-year periods. We found that about 62% of the protected marine surface might be subjected to low/very low climatic stability. About 70% of the protected waters were also found to be of limited community stability. Thus, protected surfaces across the Mediterranean basin were characterized by high vulnerability under changing climatic conditions, while only 5.7% of them exhibited high and very high stability based on both indices. Our findings suggest that combining information on climate change dynamics and biotic stability could offer spatially explicit insights which cannot be obtained based simply on the ecological dimensions of conservation planning.

Five Steps to Inject Transformative Change into the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework

Accelerating declines in biodiversity and unmet targets in the Convention on Biological Diversity's 2010-2020 Strategic Plan for Biodiversity are stimulating widespread calls for transformative change. Such change includes societal transitions toward sustainability, as well as in specific content of the CBD's draft Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. We summarize research on transformative change and its links to biodiversity conservation, and discuss how it may influence the work of the CBD. We identify five steps to inject transformative change into the design and implementation of a new post-2020 framework: Pay attention to lessons learned from transitions research, plan for climate change, reframe area-based conservation, scale up biodiversity mainstreaming, and increase resources. These actions will transform the very nature of work under the CBD; a convention based on voluntary implementation by countries and facilitated by international administrators and experts must now accommodate a broader range of participants including businesses, Indigenous peoples, and multiple nonstate actors.

Metabolic tradeoffs control biodiversity gradients through geological time

The latitudinal gradient of increasing marine biodiversity from the poles to the tropics is one of the most conspicuous biological patterns in modern oceans.^1-3 Low-latitude regions of the global ocean are often hotspots of animal biodiversity, yet they are set to be most critically affected by anthropogenic climate change.⁴ As ocean temperatures rise and deoxygenation proceeds in the coming centuries, the volume of aerobically viable habitat is predicted to decrease in these zones.^5,6 In contrast to the slightly asymmetrical modern latitudinal biodiversity gradient,⁷ compilations of fossil occurrences indicate peaks in biodiversity may have existed much further away from the equator in the past, with transitions between climate states hypothesized to explain this trend.^8-13 We combine a new compilation of fossil mollusc occurrences, paleotemperature proxies, and biogeographic data to reveal a non-monotonic relationship between temperature and diversity in the paleontological record over the last 145 million years. We derive a metabolic model that integrates the kinetic effects of temperature on biodiversity¹⁴ with the recently described Metabolic Index that calculates aerobic habitat availability based on the effect of temperature on hypoxia sensitivity.^5,15,16 Although factors such as coastal habitat area and homeothermy are important,^17,18 we find strong congruence between our metabolic model and our fossil and paleotemperature meta-analysis. We therefore suggest that the effects of ocean temperature on the aerobic scope of marine ectotherms is a primary driver of migrating biodiversity peaks through geologic time and will likely play a role in the restructuring of biodiversity under projected future climate scenarios.

SOS small pelagics: A safe operating space for small pelagic fish in the western Mediterranean Sea

Sustainable fishing practices must ensure human wellbeing by safeguarding the integrity of marine life-supporting systems. Unfortunately, a significant challenge to fisheries management is that sustainable fishing levels can decline, often synergistically, by co-occurring with climate-driven environmental stressors. Within one of the most impacted marine areas in the world, and encompassing a number of highly targeted commercial species, the small pelagic fish community of the western Mediterranean Sea has recently shown signs of collapse. In this study, we identify a worrying coincidence where fishing hotspots for the commercially valuable European sardine Sardina pilchardus and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus occur in marine areas mostly affected by climate change. To identify these areas, we overlayed detailed, spatially explicit measurements of fishing pressure with the finest-scale maps of cumulative climate change impacts onto these species. According to our results, doubly impacted marine areas largely occur in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, with climate and fisheries mostly affecting European sardine. Reducing local stressors (i.e., fishing pressure) in highly impacted areas may contribute to maintain these communities within a "safe operating space" (SOS), where they remain resilient to climate change. Accordingly, the redistribution and/or reduction of fishing intensity may alleviate pressure in those areas already affected by climate change. Sustainable fishing strategies may benefit, therefore, from the SOS concept and the spatial assessments provided in this study.

An Underwater Robotic Manipulator with Soft Bladders and Compact Depth-Independent Actuation

An underwater manipulator is essential for underwater robotic sampling and other service operations. Conventional rigid body underwater manipulators generally required substantial size and weight, leading to hindered general applications. Pioneering soft robotic underwater manipulators have defied this by offering dexterous and lightweight arms and grippers, but still requiring substantial actuation and control components to withstand the water pressure and achieving the desired dynamic performance. In this work, we propose a novel approach to underwater manipulator design and control, exploiting the unique characteristics of soft robots, with a hybrid structure (rigid frame+soft actuator) for improved rigidity and force output, a uniform actuator design allowing one compact hydraulic actuation system to drive all actuators, and a novel fully customizable soft bladder design that improves performances in multiple areas: (1) force output of the actuator is decoupled from the working depth, enabling wide working ranges; (2) all actuators are connected to the main hydraulic line without actuator-specific control loop, resulting in a very compact actuation system especially for high-dexterity cases; (3) dynamic responses were improved significantly compared with the counter system without bladder. A prototype soft manipulator with 4-DOFs, dual bladders, and 15 N payload was developed; the entire system (including actuation, control, and batteries) could be mounted onto a consumer-grade remotely operated vehicle, with depth-independent performances validated by various laboratory and field test results across various climatic and hydrographic conditions. Analytical models and validations of the proposed soft bladder design were also presented as a guideline for other applications.

What and where? Predicting invasion hotspots in the Arctic marine realm

The risk of aquatic invasions in the Arctic is expected to increase with climate warming, greater shipping activity and resource exploitation in the region. Planktonic and benthic marine aquatic invasive species (AIS) with the greatest potential for invasion and impact in the Canadian Arctic were identified and the 23 riskiest species were modelled to predict their potential spatial distributions at pan-Arctic and global scales. Modelling was conducted under present environmental conditions and two intermediate future (2050 and 2100) global warming scenarios. Invasion hotspots-regions of the Arctic where habitat is predicted to be suitable for a high number of potential AIS-were located in Hudson Bay, Northern Grand Banks/Labrador, Chukchi/Eastern Bering seas and Barents/White seas, suggesting that these regions could be more vulnerable to invasions. Globally, both benthic and planktonic organisms showed a future poleward shift in suitable habitat. At a pan-Arctic scale, all organisms showed suitable habitat gains under future conditions. However, at the global scale, habitat loss was predicted in more tropical regions for some taxa, particularly most planktonic species. Results from the present study can help prioritize management efforts in the face of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Moreover, this particular approach provides information to identify present and future high-risk areas for AIS in response to global warming.

Interocean patterns in shallow water sponge assemblage structure and function

Sponges are a major component of benthic ecosystems across the world and fulfil a number of important functional roles. However, despite their importance, there have been few attempts to compare sponge assemblage structure and ecological functions across large spatial scales. In this review, we examine commonalities and differences between shallow water (<100 m) sponges at bioregional (15 bioregions) and macroregional (tropical, Mediterranean, temperate, and polar) scales, to provide a more comprehensive understanding of sponge ecology. Patterns of sponge abundance (based on density and area occupied) were highly variable, with an average benthic cover between ~1 and 30%. Sponges were generally found to occupy more space (percentage cover) in the Mediterranean and polar macroregions, compared to temperate and tropical macroregions, although sponge densities (sponges m^-2 ) were highest in temperate bioregions. Mean species richness standardised by sampling area was similar across all bioregions, except for a few locations that supported very high small-scale biodiversity concentrations. Encrusting growth forms were generally the dominant sponge morphology, with the exception of the Tropical West Atlantic, where upright forms dominated. Annelids and Arthropods were the most commonly reported macrofauna associated with sponges across bioregions. With respect to reproduction, there were no patterns in gametic development (hermaphroditism versus gonochorism), although temperate, tropical, and polar macroregions had an increasingly higher percentage of viviparous species, respectively, with viviparity being the sole gamete development mechanism reported for polar sponges to date. Seasonal reproductive timing was the most common in all bioregions, but continuous timing was more common in the Mediterranean and tropical bioregions compared to polar and temperate bioregions. We found little variation across bioregions in larval size, and the dominant larval type across the globe was parenchymella. No pattens among bioregions were found in the limited information available for standardised respiration and pumping rates. Many organisms were found to predate sponges, with the abundance of sponge predators being higher in tropical systems. While there is some evidence to support a higher overall proportion of phototrophic species in the Tropical Austalian bioregion compared to the Western Atlantic, both also have large numbers of heterotrophic species. Sponges are important spatial competitors across all bioregions, most commonly being reported to interact with anthozoans and algae. Even though the available information was limited for many bioregions, our analyses demonstrate some differences in sponge traits and functions among bioregions, and among macroregions. However, we also identified similarities in sponge assemblage structure and function at global scales, likely reflecting a combination of regional- and local-scale biological and physical processes affecting sponge assemblages, along with common ancestry. Finally, we used our analyses to highlight geographic bias in past sponge research, and identify gaps in our understanding of sponge ecology globally. By so doing, we identified key areas for future research on sponge ecology. We hope that our study will help sponge researchers to consider bioregion-specific features of sponge assemblages and key sponge-mediated ecological processes from a global perspective.

Oceanic thermal structure mediates dive sequences in a foraging seabird

Changes in marine ecosystems are easier to detect in upper-level predators, like seabirds, which integrate trophic interactions throughout the food web.Here, we examined whether diving parameters and complexity in the temporal organization of diving behavior of little penguins (Eudyptula minor) are influenced by sea surface temperature (SST), water stratification, and wind speed-three oceanographic features influencing prey abundance and distribution in the water column.Using fractal time series analysis, we found that foraging complexity, expressed as the degree of long-range correlations or memory in the dive series, was associated with SST and water stratification throughout the breeding season, but not with wind speed. Little penguins foraging in warmer/more-stratified waters exhibited greater determinism (memory) in foraging sequences, likely as a response to prey aggregations near the thermocline. They also showed higher foraging efficiency, performed more dives and dove to shallower depths than those foraging in colder/less-stratified waters.Reductions in the long-term memory of dive sequences, or in other words increases in behavioral stochasticity, may suggest different strategies concerning the exploration-exploitation trade-off under contrasting environmental conditions.

Influence of acoustic habitat variation on Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in shallow waters of Hainan Island, China

The Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (IPHD, Sousa chinensis) is a coastal species inhabiting tropical and warm-temperate waters. The presence of this vulnerable dolphin was recently discovered in shallow waters southwest of Hainan Island, China. The influence of the acoustic habitat on the distribution and behavior of IPHD was investigated using an array of passive acoustic platforms (n = 6) that spanned more than 100 km of coastline during a 75-day monitoring period. Its presence was assessed within 19 215 five-min recordings by classifying echolocation clicks using machine learning techniques. Spectrogram analysis was applied to further investigate the acoustic behavior of IPHD and to identify other prominent sound sources. The variation in the ambient noise levels was also measured to describe the spatiotemporal patterns of the acoustic habitat among the different sampling sites. Social and feeding sounds of IPHD (whistles and click-series of pulsed sounds) were identified together with other biological sources (finless porpoise, soniferous fishes, and snapping shrimps) and anthropogenic activities (ship noise, explosions, and sonars). Distribution, acoustic behavior, and habitat use of this nearshore dolphin species were strongly influenced by the abundance of soniferous fishes, and under similar conditions, the species was more acoustically active in locations with lower noise levels.

The role of rarity as a surrogate of marine fish species representation

Because the distribution of most of the species is poorly known, conservationists use surrogates to help maximize the representation level of all species. Historically, species richness has been used to calculate the importance of priority areas for conservation, but several studies revealed sites with high species richness often fail to determine the smallest number of sites that will protect the highest number of species. Rarity, however, has played a prominent role in safeguarding planning units. While the performance of rarity has been previously assessed in terrestrial systems, we tested the hypothesis that rarity of a site can be used as a measure of the importance of a site to a conservation network in marine ecosystems. We used the presence data (at a 1-degree resolution) to calculate five rarity indices of fish diversity at a global extent and compared the results to those obtained by using species richness and site complementarity. Our objectives were to: (1) determine if rarity indices can be used as surrogates of fish biodiversity by representing the highest number of species in the smallest number of sites; and (2) determine if the effectiveness of these indices to represent fish biodiversity is impacted by the metric used to define rarity. Results indicate that rarity could be an effective surrogate for marine fishes, as most results showed a mean of 100% effectiveness. In the context of marine biodiversity conservation, results show that rarity indices could be considered affordable and feasible surrogates of species representation, with the most significant benefit to those areas of the world that are in most need to access alternative tools. Results also open a new area of collaboration between biogeography and marine conservation biology since planners can use biogeographical patterns of rarity to enhance the performance of the current protected area network.

Applying science to pressing conservation needs for penguins

More than half of the world's 18 penguin species are declining. We, the Steering Committee of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission Penguin Specialist Group, determined that the penguin species in most critical need of conservation action are African penguin (Spheniscus demersus), Galápagos penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus), and Yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes). Due to small or rapidly declining populations, these species require immediate scientific collaboration and policy intervention. We also used a pairwise-ranking approach to prioritize research and conservation needs for all penguins. Among the 12 cross-taxa research areas we identified, we ranked quantifying population trends, estimating demographic rates, forecasting environmental patterns of change, and improving the knowledge of fisheries interactions as the highest priorities. The highest ranked conservation needs were to enhance marine spatial planning, improve stakeholder engagement, and develop disaster-management and species-specific action plans. We concurred that, to improve the translation of science into effective conservation for penguins, the scientific community and funding bodies must recognize the importance of and support long-term research; research on and conservation of penguins must expand its focus to include the nonbreeding season and juvenile stage; marine reserves must be designed at ecologically appropriate spatial and temporal scales; and communication between scientists and decision makers must be improved with the help of individual scientists and interdisciplinary working groups.

Addressing priority questions of conservation science with palaeontological data

Palaeontologists often ask identical questions to those asked by ecologists. Despite this, ecology is considered a core discipline of conservation biology, while palaeontologists are rarely consulted in the protection of species, habitats and ecosystems. The recent emergence of conservation palaeobiology presents a big step towards better integration of palaeontology in conservation science, although its focus on historical baselines may not fully capture the potential contributions of geohistorical data to conservation science. In this essay we address previously defined priority questions in conservation and consider which of these questions may be answerable using palaeontological data. Using a statistical assessment of surveys, we find that conservation biologists and younger scientists have a more optimistic view of potential palaeontological contributions to the field compared to experienced palaeontologists. Participants considered questions related to climate change and marine ecosystems to be the best addressable with palaeontological data. As these categories are also deemed most relevant by ecologists and receive the greatest research effort in conservation, they are the natural choice for future academic collaboration. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Whale counting in satellite and aerial images with deep learning

Despite their interest and threat status, the number of whales in world’s oceans remains highly uncertain. Whales detection is normally carried out from costly sighting surveys, acoustic surveys or through high-resolution images. Since deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are achieving great performance in several computer vision tasks, here we propose a robust and generalizable CNN-based system for automatically detecting and counting whales in satellite and aerial images based on open data and tools. In particular, we designed a two-step whale counting approach, where the first CNN finds the input images with whale presence, and the second CNN locates and counts each whale in those images. A test of the system on Google Earth images in ten global whale-watching hotspots achieved a performance (F1-measure) of 81% in detecting and 94% in counting whales. Combining these two steps increased accuracy by 36% compared to a baseline detection model alone. Applying this cost-effective method worldwide could contribute to the assessment of whale populations to guide conservation actions. Free and global access to high-resolution imagery for conservation purposes would boost this process.

Future ocean climate homogenizes communities across habitats through diversity loss and rise of generalist species

Predictions of the effects of global change on ecological communities are largely based on single habitats. Yet in nature, habitats are interconnected through the exchange of energy and organisms, and the responses of local communities may not extend to emerging community networks (i.e., metacommunities). Using large mesocosms and meiofauna communities as a model system, we investigated the interactive effects of ocean warming and acidification on the structure of marine metacommunities from three shallow-water habitats: sandy soft-bottoms, marine vegetation, and rocky reef substrates. Primary producers and detritus-key food sources for meiofauna-increased in biomass under the combined effect of temperature and acidification. The enhanced bottom-up forcing boosted nematode densities but impoverished the functional and trophic diversity of nematode metacommunities. The combined climate stressors further homogenized meiofauna communities across habitats. Under present-day conditions metacommunities were structured by habitat type, but under future conditions they showed an unstructured random pattern with fast-growing generalist species dominating the communities of all habitats. Homogenization was likely driven by local species extinctions, reducing interspecific competition that otherwise could have prevented single species from dominating multiple niches. Our findings reveal that climate change may simplify metacommunity structure and prompt biodiversity loss, which may affect the biological organization and resilience of marine communities.

Hotspots of human impact on threatened terrestrial vertebrates

Conserving threatened species requires identifying where across their range they are being impacted by threats, yet this remains unresolved across most of Earth. Here, we present a global analysis of cumulative human impacts on threatened species by using a spatial framework that jointly considers the co-occurrence of eight threatening processes and the distribution of 5,457 terrestrial vertebrates. We show that impacts to species are widespread, occurring across 84% of Earth's surface, and identify hotspots of impacted species richness and coolspots of unimpacted species richness. Almost one-quarter of assessed species are impacted across >90% of their distribution, and approximately 7% are impacted across their entire range. These results foreshadow localised extirpations and potential extinctions without conservation action. The spatial framework developed here offers a tool for defining strategies to directly mitigate the threats driving species' declines, providing essential information for future national and global conservation agendas.

Ecoacoustics: A Quantitative Approach to Investigate the Ecological Role of Environmental Sounds

Ecoacoustics is a recent ecological discipline focusing on the ecological role of sounds. Sounds from the geophysical, biological, and anthropic environment represent important cues used by animals to navigate, communicate, and transform unknown environments in well-known habitats. Sounds are utilized to evaluate relevant ecological parameters adopted as proxies for biodiversity, environmental health, and human wellbeing assessment due to the availability of autonomous audio recorders and of quantitative metrics. Ecoacoustics is an important ecological tool to establish an innovative biosemiotic narrative to ensure a strategic connection between nature and humanity, to help in-situ field and remote-sensing surveys, and to develop long-term monitoring programs. Acoustic entropy, acoustic richness, acoustic dissimilarity index, acoustic complexity indices (ACItf and ACIft and their evenness), normalized difference soundscape index, ecoacoustic event detection and identification routine, and their fractal structure are some of the most popular indices successfully applied in ecoacoustics. Ecoacoustics offers great opportunities to investigate ecological complexity across a full range of operational scales (from individual species to landscapes), but requires an implementation of its foundations and of quantitative metrics to ameliorate its competency on physical, biological, and anthropic sonic contexts.

Spatial congruence between multiple stressors in the Mediterranean Sea may reduce its resilience to climate impacts

Climate impacts on marine ecosystems may be exacerbated by other, more local stressors interacting synergistically, such as pollution and overexploitation of marine resources. The reduction of these human stressors has been proposed as an achievable way of retaining ecosystems within a “safe operating space” (SOS), where they remain resilient to ongoing climate change. However, the operability of an SOS requires a thorough understanding of the spatial distribution of these climate and human impacts. Using the Mediterranean Sea as a case study, we illustrate the spatial congruence between climate and human stressors impacting this iconic “miniature ocean” synergistically. We use long-term, spatially-explicit information on the distribution of multiple stressors to identify those highly impacted marine areas where human stressors should be prioritized for management if the resilience to climate impacts is to be maintained. Based on our spatial analysis, we exemplify how the management of an essential supporting service (seafood provision) and the conservation of a highly impacted Mediterranean sub-region (the Adriatic Sea) may benefit from the SOS framework.

Extinction risk in extant marine species integrating palaeontological and biodistributional data

Extinction risk assessments of marine invertebrate species remain scarce, which hinders effective management of marine biodiversity in the face of anthropogenic impacts. To help close this information gap, in this paper we provide a metric of relative extinction risk that combines palaeontological data, in the form of extinction rates calculated from the fossil record, with two known correlates of risk in the modern day: geographical range size and realized thermal niche. We test the performance of this metric-Palaeontological Extinction Risk In Lineages (PERIL)-using survivorship analyses of Pliocene bivalve faunas from California and New Zealand, and then use it to identify present-day hotspots of extinction vulnerability for extant shallow-marine Bivalvia. Areas of the ocean where concentrations of bivalve species with higher PERIL scores overlap with high levels of climatic or anthropogenic stressors should be considered of most immediate concern for both conservation and management.

Downscaling hydrodynamics features to depict causes of major productivity of Sicilian-Maltese area and implications for resource management

Chlorophyll-a (CHL-a) and sea surface temperature (SST) are generally accepted as proxies for water quality. They can be easily retrieved in a quasi-near real time mode through satellite remote sensing and, as such, they provide an overview of the water quality on a synoptic scale in open waters. Their distributions evolve in space and time in response to local and remote forcing, such as winds and currents, which however have much finer temporal and spatial scales than those resolvable by satellites in spite of recent advances in satellite remote-sensing techniques. Satellite data are often characterized by a moderate temporal resolution to adequately catch the actual sub-grid physical processes. Conventional pointwise measurements can resolve high-frequency motions such as tides or high-frequency wind-driven currents, however they are inadequate to resolve their spatial variability over wide areas. We show in this paper that a combined use of near-surface currents, available through High-Frequency (HF) radars, and satellite data (e.g., TERRA and AQUA/MODIS), can properly resolve the main oceanographic features in both coastal and open-sea regions, particularly at the coastal boundaries where satellite imageries fail, and are complementary tools to interpret ocean productivity and resource management in the Sicily Channel.

Assessment of the Health Status of Mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis Along the Campania Coastal Areas: A Multidisciplinary Approach

The bivalve Mytilus galloprovincialis has a broad geographic distribution, represent an important species for the ecology of coastal waters, also constituting a major aquaculture species. In the present work, molecular and tissue biomarkers were examined in mussel populations (M. galloprovincialis) located in four different areas of the coastal water of the Campania Region. During an annual life cycle, we analyzed the expression patterns of several genes commonly used to estimate cellular stress response and damage, namely p53, p63, HSP70, MT-10, and MT-20, related tissue lesions (pathogens, inflammations, digestive tubules damage), oxidative stress indicators (H2O2, SOD specific activity) and associated environmental data. The computed Principal Component Analysis showed that the areas were discernible based on the environmental data and biomarker results. About animal health status, mussels from Gulf of Pozzuoli and Naples's harbor did show a thinnest epithelial cell of digestive tubules compared to mussels sampled from other sampling sites; moreover, high prevalence of cases of intersex in three of the examinated areas were observed. The presence of a potential zoonotic pathogen (Nocardia crassostreae) was identified, appearing as an important possible emerging disease. We also reported the OIE notifiable protozoa Marteilia refringens in three areas out of four. The likely impact of both observed pathogens on the mussel health and shellfish aquaculture needs to be urgently addressed. Results are discussed considering animal histopathological health parameters and biological effects.

The warmer the ocean surface, the shallower the mixed layer. How much of this is true?

Ocean surface warming is commonly associated with a more stratified, less productive, and less oxygenated ocean. Such an assertion is mainly based on consistent projections of increased near-surface stratification and shallower mixed layers under global warming scenarios. However, while the observed sea surface temperature (SST) is rising at midlatitudes, the concurrent ocean record shows that stratification is not unequivocally increasing nor is MLD shoaling. We find that while SST increases at three study areas at midlatitudes, stratification both increases and decreases, and MLD deepens with enhanced deepening of winter MLDs at rates over 10 m  decade-1. These results rely on the estimation of several MLD and stratification indexes of different complexity on hydrographic profiles from long-term hydrographic time-series, ocean reanalysis, and Argo floats. Combining this information with estimated MLDs from buoyancy fluxes and the enhanced deepening/attenuation of the winter MLD trends due to changes in the Ekman pumping, MLD variability involves a subtle interplay between circulation and atmospheric forcing at midlatitudes. Besides, it is highlighted that the density difference between the surface and 200 m, the most widely used stratification index, should not be expected to reliably inform about changes in the vertical extent of mixing.

Sea ice phenology and primary productivity pulses shape breeding success in Arctic seabirds

Spring sea ice phenology regulates the timing of the two consecutive pulses of marine autotrophs that form the base of the Arctic marine food webs. This timing has been suggested to be the single most essential driver of secondary production and the efficiency with which biomass and energy are transferred to higher trophic levels. We investigated the chronological sequence of productivity pulses and its potential cascading impacts on the reproductive performance of the High Arctic seabird community from Svalbard, Norway. We provide evidence that interannual changes in the seasonal patterns of marine productivity may impact the breeding performance of little auks and Brünnich's guillemots. These results may be of particular interest given that current global warming trends in the Barents Sea region predict one of the highest rates of sea ice loss within the circumpolar Arctic. However, local- to regional-scale heterogeneity in sea ice melting phenology may add uncertainty to predictions of climate-driven environmental impacts on seabirds. Indeed, our fine-scale analysis reveals that the inshore Brünnich's guillemots are facing a slower advancement in the timing of ice melt compared to the offshore-foraging little auks. We provide a suitable framework for analyzing the effects of climate-driven sea ice disappearance on seabird fitness.

Aligning marine species range data to better serve science and conservation

Species distribution data provide the foundation for a wide range of ecological research studies and conservation management decisions. Two major efforts to provide marine species distributions at a global scale are the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), which provides expert-generated range maps that outline the complete extent of a species' distribution; and AquaMaps, which provides model-generated species distribution maps that predict areas occupied by the species. Together these databases represent 24,586 species (93.1% within AquaMaps, 16.4% within IUCN), with only 2,330 shared species. Differences in intent and methodology can result in very different predictions of species distributions, which bear important implications for scientists and decision makers who rely upon these datasets when conducting research or informing conservation policy and management actions. Comparing distributions for the small subset of species with maps in both datasets, we found that AquaMaps and IUCN range maps show strong agreement for many well-studied species, but our analysis highlights several key examples in which introduced errors drive differences in predicted species ranges. In particular, we find that IUCN maps greatly overpredict coral presence into unsuitably deep waters, and we show that some AquaMaps computer-generated default maps (only 5.7% of which have been reviewed by experts) can produce odd discontinuities at the extremes of a species’ predicted range. We illustrate the scientific and management implications of these tradeoffs by repeating a global analysis of gaps in coverage of marine protected areas, and find significantly different results depending on how the two datasets are used. By highlighting tradeoffs between the two datasets, we hope to encourage increased collaboration between taxa experts and large scale species distribution modeling efforts to further improve these foundational datasets, helping to better inform science and policy recommendations around understanding, managing, and protecting marine biodiversity.