Improvements in reports of species redistribution under climate change are required

Mosquito Species Diversity and Abundance Patterns in Plots with Contrasting Land Use and Land Cover in Bloomington, Indiana

Land use and land cover (LULC) gradients are associated with differences in mosquito species composition and the entomological risk of mosquito-borne disease. Here, we present results from a season-long study of mosquito species richness and abundance with samples collected at 9 locations from 2 plots with contrasting LULC, an urban farm and a forest preserve, in Bloomington, IN, a city in the midwestern USA. With a total sampling effort of 234 trap-nights, we collected 703 mosquitoes from 9 genera and 21 species. On the farm, we collected 15 species (285 mosquitoes). In the preserve, we collected 19 species (418 mosquitoes). Thirteen species were common in both study plots, 2 were exclusive to the farm, and 6 were exclusive to the forest preserve. In both plots, we collected Aedes albopictus and Ae. japonicus. In the farm, the most common mosquito species were Culex restuans/Cx. pipiens and Coquillettidia perturbans. In the preserve, Ae. japonicus and Ae. triseriatus were the 2 most common mosquito species. Time series analysis suggests that weather factors differentially affected mosquito species richness and mosquito abundance in the plots. Temperature, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation were positively associated with richness and abundance at the farm, while increases in the SD of RH decreased both richness and abundance at the preserve. Our results highlight the importance that LULC has for mosquito species diversity and abundance and confirm the presence of Ae. albopictus and Ae. japonicus in southwestern Indiana.

A Warm Welcome to the Alps-The Northward Expansion of Trithemis annulata (Odonata, Libellulidae) in Italy

Climate warming has already influenced the distribution, community composition, and phenology of European Odonata. Trithemis annulata had been confined to the southern regions of Italy for over 150 years. In only four decades, it has expanded its range and has recently been observed inhabiting several alpine valleys. A dataset of 2557 geographical distribution data points spanning the years 1825-2023 was compiled using various resources, with the aim to analyse the chrono-story of the expansion of T. annulata. A further aim was to investigate the climatic conditions that best explain its current and future distribution. Over a period of 43 years, the species steadily extended its northern range margin at an approximate rate of 12 km/year. Once it reached the Po Plain, the expansion accelerated to an average speed of 34 km/year. However, its northward shift lagged behind the warming climate as we estimated an average speed of 28 km/year. In the future, the area suitable for T. annulata is expected to significantly increase in Italy. Surprisingly, we did not observe any consistent upward shift. Trithemis annulata has considerably expanded its distribution due to human-induced climate warming. The northernmost populations now inhabit Alpine valleys, potential gateways to central Europe.

Incorporating physiological knowledge into correlative species distribution models minimizes bias introduced by the choice of calibration area

Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to estimate species' geographic distribution across space and time, but their reliability heavily relies on the availability and quality of occurrence data. Estimations can be biased when occurrences do not fully represent the environmental requirement of a species. We tested to what extent species' physiological knowledge might influence SDM estimations. Focusing on the Japanese sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus within the coastal ocean of East Asia, we compiled a comprehensive dataset of occurrence records. We then explored the importance of incorporating physiological knowledge into SDMs by calibrating two types of correlative SDMs: a naïve model that solely depends on environmental correlates, and a physiologically informed model that further incorporates physiological information as priors. We further tested the models' sensitivity to calibration area choices by fitting them with different buffered areas around known presences. Compared with naïve models, the physiologically informed models successfully captured the negative influence of high temperature on A. japonicus and were less sensitive to the choice of calibration area. The naïve models resulted in more optimistic prediction of the changes of potential distributions under climate change (i.e., larger range expansion and less contraction) than the physiologically informed models. Our findings highlight benefits from incorporating physiological information into correlative SDMs, namely mitigating the uncertainties associated with the choice of calibration area. Given these promising features, we encourage future SDM studies to consider species physiological information where available.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-024-00226-0.

Foliar spectra accurately distinguish most temperate tree species and show strong phylogenetic signal

PREMISE

Spectroscopy is a powerful remote sensing tool for monitoring plant biodiversity over broad geographic areas. Increasing evidence suggests that foliar spectral reflectance can be used to identify trees at the species level. However, most studies have focused on only a limited number of species at a time, and few studies have explored the underlying phylogenetic structure of leaf spectra. Accurate species identifications are important for reliable estimations of biodiversity from spectral data.

METHODS

Using over 3500 leaf-level spectral measurements, we evaluated whether foliar reflectance spectra (400-2400 nm) can accurately differentiate most tree species from a regional species pool in eastern North America. We explored relationships between spectral, phylogenetic, and leaf functional trait variation as well as their influence on species classification using a hurdle regression model.

RESULTS

Spectral reflectance accurately differentiated tree species (κ = 0.736, ±0.005). Foliar spectra showed strong phylogenetic signal, and classification errors from foliar spectra, although present at higher taxonomic levels, were found predominantly between closely related species, often of the same genus. In addition, we find functional and phylogenetic distance broadly control the occurrence and frequency of spectral classification mistakes among species.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results further support the link between leaf spectral diversity, taxonomic hierarchy, and phylogenetic and functional diversity, and highlight the potential of spectroscopy to remotely sense plant biodiversity and vegetation response to global change.

Hymenopteran-specific TRPA channel from the Texas leaf cutter ant (Atta texana) is heat and cold activated and expression correlates with environmental temperature

Leaf cutting ants of the genus Atta cultivate fungal gardens, carefully modifying environmental conditions to maintain optimal temperature for fungal growth. Antennal nerves from Atta are highly temperature sensitive, but the underlying molecular sensor is unknown. Here, we utilize Atta texana (Texas leaf cutter ant) to investigate the molecular basis of ant temperature sensation and how it might have evolved as the range expanded northeast across Texas from ancestral populations in Mexico. We focus on transient receptor potential (TRP) channel genes, the best characterized temperature sensor proteins in animals. Atta texana antennae express 6 of 13 Hymenopteran TRP channel genes and sequences are under a mix of relaxed and intensified selection. In a behavioral assay, we find A. texana workers prefer 24 °C (range 21-26 °C) for fungal growth. There was no evidence of regulatory evolution across a temperature transect in Texas, but instead Hymenoptera-specific TRPA (HsTRPA) expression highly correlated with ambient temperature. When expressed in vitro, HsTRPA from A. texana is temperature activated with Q10 values exceeding 100 on initial exposure to temperatures above 33 °C. Surprisingly, HsTRPA also appears to be activated by cooling, and therefore to our knowledge, the first non-TRPA1 ortholog to be described with dual heat/cold activation and the first in any invertebrate.

Elevational homogenization of mountain parasitoids across six decades

Elevational gradients are characterized by strong environmental changes within small geographical distances, providing important insights on the response of biological communities to climate change. Mountain biodiversity is particularly sensitive to climate change, given the limited capacity to colonize new areas and the competition from upshifting lowland species. Knowledge on the impact of climate change on mountain insect communities is patchy, but elevation is known to influence parasitic interactions which control insect communities and functions within ecosystems. We analyzed a European dataset of bristle flies, a parasitoid group which regulates insect herbivory in both managed and natural ecosystems. Our dataset spans six decades and multiple elevational bands, and we found marked elevational homogenization in the host specialization of bristle fly species through time. The proportion of specialized parasitoids has increased by ca. 70% at low elevations, from 17 to 29%, and has decreased by ca. 20% at high elevations, from 48 to 37%. As a result, the strong elevational gradient in bristle fly specialization observed in the 1960s has become much flatter over time. As climate warming is predicted to accelerate, the disappearance of specialized parasitoids from high elevations might become even faster. This parasitoid homogenization can reshape the ecological function of mountain insect communities, increasing the risk of herbivory outbreak at high elevations. Our results add to the mounting evidence that symbiotic species might be especially at risk from climate change: Monitoring the effects of these changes is urgently needed to define effective conservation strategies for mountain biodiversity.

Impacts of climate change on the distribution of venomous Conus (Gastropoda: Conidae) species in the Indo-Pacific region

Climate change is affecting the distribution of marine organisms worldwide, including venomous marine gastropods that offer risks to human health, but also potential pharmacological resources, such as Conus sp. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools for predicting species distribution under climate change. The objective of our study was to evaluate the potential distribution of Conus geographus and C. textile in the Indo-Pacific region under different climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2090. We constructed SDMs with MaxEnt for each species, using bioclimatic variables from Bio-ORACLE and NOAA, and occurrence data from GBIF. We projected the best-fit model for the present and different future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). We obtained high accuracy SDMs for C. geographus and C. textile, with Temperature and Primary Productivity as the main explanatory variables. Our future projections reveal that both species may react differently to climate change. Southeast Asia and Micronesia will continue to provide a climatically appropriate environment for both species; however, they may become more suitable for C. geographus and less suitable for C. textile. This may lead to a higher risk of human envenomation by C. geographus, but a lower risk by C. textile. A decreased suitability for C. textile may also lead to the loss of potential pharmacological resources among its range. Our study emphasizes how SDMs can be used to assess the future distribution of species with human health implications, which can aid in the monitoring of venomous marine species.

Impacts of Climate Changes on Geographic Distribution of Primula filchnerae, an Endangered Herb in China

Primula filchnerae, an endangered plant endemic to China, has drawn people's attention in recent years due to its ornamental value in flower. It was rarely recorded since being described in 1902, but it was rediscovered in 2009 and is now known from a limited number of sites located in Hubei and Shaanxi Provinces. Since the species is still poorly known, a number of unanswered questions arise related to it: How has P. filchnerae responded to past climate change and how might it respond in the future? Why was P. filchmerae so rarely collected during the past century? We assembled geographic coordinates for P. filchnerae through the field surveys and website searches, and then used a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate its potential suitable distribution in six periods with varied carbon emission levels by combining bioclimatic and environmental factors. MaxEnt showed that Min Temperature of the Coldest Month (bio6) and Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter (bio19) affected P. filchnerae's distribution most, with an aggregate contribution >60% and suitable ranges above -5 °C and below 40 mm, respectively. We also analyzed potential habitat distribution in various periods with differing impacts of climate change compared to today's suitable habitats, and in most cases, Shaanxi and Sichuan remained the most stable areas and with possible expansion to the north under various carbon emission scenarios, but the 2050s SSP5-8.5 scenario may be an exception. Moreover, we used MaxEnt to evaluate population shifts, with various scenarios indicating that geometric center would be concentrated in Sichuan Province in China. Finally, conservation strategies are suggested, including the creation of protected areas, long-term monitoring, raising public awareness of plant conservation, situ conservation measures, assisted migration, and species introduction. This study demonstrates how P. filchnerae may have adapted to changes in different periods and provides a scientific basis for germplasm conservation and management.

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

Effect of global warming on the potential distribution of a holoparasitic plant (Phelypaea tournefortii): both climate and host distribution matter

Phelypaea tournefortii (Orobanchaceae) primarily occurs in the Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and N Iran) and Turkey. This perennial, holoparasitic herb is achlorophyllous and possesses one of the most intense red flowers among all plants worldwide. It occurs as a parasite on the roots of several Tanacetum (Asteraceae) species and prefers steppe and semi-arid habitats. Climate change may affect holoparasites both directly through effects on their physiology and indirectly as a consequence of its effects on their host plants and habitats. In this study, we used the ecological niche modeling approach to estimate the possible effects of climate change on P. tournefortii and to evaluate the effect of its parasitic relationships with two preferred host species on the chances of survival of this species under global warming. We used four climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) and three different simulations (CNRM, GISS-E2, INM). We modeled the species' current and future distribution using the maximum entropy method implemented in MaxEnt using seven bioclimatic variables and species occurrence records (Phelypaea tournefortii - 63 records, Tanacetum argyrophyllum - 40, Tanacetum chiliophyllum - 21). According to our analyses, P. tournefortii will likely contract its geographical range remarkably. In response to global warming, the coverage of the species' suitable niches will decrease by at least 34%, especially in central and southern Armenia, Nakhchivan in Azerbaijan, northern Iran, and NE Turkey. In the worst-case scenario, the species will go completely extinct. Additionally, the studied plant's hosts will lose at least 36% of currently suitable niches boosting the range contraction of P. tournefortii. The GISS-E2 scenario will be least damaging, while the CNRM will be most damaging to climate change for studied species. Our study shows the importance of including ecological data in niche models to obtain more reliable predictions of the future distribution of parasitic plants.

Geography of Indian Butterflies: Patterns Revealed by Checklists of Federal States

Butterflies are widely used to analyze biogeographical patterns, both at the global and regional scales. Thus far, most of the latter originated from well-surveyed northern regions, while the species-rich tropical areas lag due to a lack of appropriate data. We used checklists of 1379 butterfly species recorded in 36 federal states of the Republic of India (1) to explore the basic macroecological rules, and (2) to relate species richness and the distribution of endemics and geographic elements to geography, climate, land covers and socioeconomic conditions of the states. The area, land covers diversity and latitude did not affect species richness, whereas topographic diversity and the precipitation/temperature ratio (energy availability) were positive predictors. This is due the geographic and climatic idiosyncrasies of the Indian subcontinent, with its highest species richness in the small, densely forested mountainous northeast that receives summer monsoons. The peninsular effect that decreases the richness towards the tip of subcontinent is counterbalanced by the mountainous forested Western Ghats. Afrotropical elements are associated with savannahs, while Palearctic elements are associated with treeless habitats. The bulk of Indian butterfly richness, and the highest conservation priorities, overlap with global biodiversity hotspots, but the mountainous states of the Western Himalayas and the savannah states of peninsular India host distinctive faunas.

Species Richness of Papilionidae Butterflies (Lepidoptera: Papilionoidea) in the Hengduan Mountains and Its Future Shifts under Climate Change

The family of Papilionidae (Lepidoptera: Papilionoidea) is a group of butterflies with high ecological and conservation value. The Hengduan Mountains (HMDs) in Southwest China is an important diversity centre for these butterflies. However, the spatial distribution pattern and the climate vulnerability of Papilionidae butterflies in the HDMs remain unknown to date. The lack of such knowledge has already become an obstacle in formulating effective butterfly conservation strategies. The present research compiled a 59-species dataset with 1938 occurrence points. The Maxent model was applied to analyse the spatial pattern of species richness in subfamilies Parnassiinae and Papilioninae, as well as to predict the response under the influence of climate change. The spatial pattern of both subfamilies in the HDMs has obvious elevation prevalence, with Parnassiinae concentrated in the subalpine to alpine areas (2500-5500 m) in western Sichuan, northwestern Yunnan and eastern Tibet, while Papilioninae is concentrated in the low- to medium-elevation areas (1500-3500 m) in the river valleys of western Yunnan and western Sichuan. Under the influence of climate change, both subfamilies would exhibit northward and upward range shifts. The majority of Parnassiinae species would experience drastic habitat contraction, resulting in lower species richness across the HDMs. In contrast, most Papilioninae species would experience habitat expansion, and the species richness would also increase significantly. The findings of this research should provide new insights and a clue for butterfly diversity and climatic vulnerability in southwestern China. Future conservation efforts should be focused on species with habitat contraction, narrow-ranged distribution and endemicity with both in situ and ex situ measures, especially in protected areas. Commercialised collecting targeting these species must also be regulated by future legislation.

Rapid upwards spread of non-native plants in mountains across continents

High-elevation ecosystems are among the few ecosystems worldwide that are not yet heavily invaded by non-native plants. This is expected to change as species expand their range limits upwards to fill their climatic niches and respond to ongoing anthropogenic disturbances. Yet, whether and how quickly these changes are happening has only been assessed in a few isolated cases. Starting in 2007, we conducted repeated surveys of non-native plant distributions along mountain roads in 11 regions from 5 continents. We show that over a 5- to 10-year period, the number of non-native species increased on average by approximately 16% per decade across regions. The direction and magnitude of upper range limit shifts depended on elevation across all regions. Supported by a null-model approach accounting for range changes expected by chance alone, we found greater than expected upward shifts at lower/mid elevations in at least seven regions. After accounting for elevation dependence, significant average upward shifts were detected in a further three regions (revealing evidence for upward shifts in 10 of 11 regions). Together, our results show that mountain environments are becoming increasingly exposed to biological invasions, emphasizing the need to monitor and prevent potential biosecurity issues emerging in high-elevation ecosystems.

Evolutionary rescue and geographic range shifts under climate change for global amphibians

By the end of this century, human-induced climate change and habitat loss may drastically reduce biodiversity, with expected effects on many amphibian lineages. One of these effects is the shift in the geographic distributions of species when tracking suitable climates. Here, we employ a macroecological approach to dynamically model geographic range shifts by coupling ecological niche models and eco-evolutionary mechanisms, aiming to assess the probability of evolutionary rescue (i.e., rapid adaptation) and dispersal under climate change. Evolutionary models estimated the probability of population persistence by adapting to changes in the temperature influenced by precipitation in the following decades, while compensating the fitness reduction and maintaining viable populations in the new climates. In addition, we evaluated emerging patterns of species richness and turnover at the assemblage level. Our approach was able to identify which amphibian populations among 7,193 species at the global scale could adapt to temperature changes or disperse into suitable regions in the future. Without evolutionary adaptation and dispersal, 47.7% of the species could go extinct until the year 2,100, whereas adding both processes will slightly decrease this extinction rate to 36.5%. Although adaptation to climate is possible for populations in about 25.7% of species, evolutionary rescue is the only possibility to avoid extinction in 4.2% of them. Dispersal will allow geographic range shifts for 49.7% of species, but only 6.5% may avoid extinction by reaching climatically suitable environments. This reconfiguration of species distributions and their persistence creates new assemblage-level patterns at the local scale. Temporal beta-diversity across the globe showed relatively low levels of species turnover, mainly due to the loss of species. Despite limitations with obtaining data, our approach provides more realistic assessments of species responses to ongoing climate changes. It shows that, although dispersal and evolutionary rescue may attenuate species losses, they are not enough to avoid a significant reduction of species’ geographic ranges in the future. Actions that guarantee a higher potential of adaptation (e.g., genetic diversity through larger population sizes) and increased connectivity for species dispersion to track suitable climates become essential, increasing the resilience of biodiversity to climate change.

Threatened species could be more vulnerable to climate change in tropical countries

Climate change is a major threat impacting insects globally, yet the impact on tropical insects is largely unknown. Here, I assessed the climatic vulnerability of Bangladeshi butterflies (242 species). About 42 % of species could experience range contraction, and the impact could be significantly more severe among threatened species. Depending on Socio-Economic Pathways (ssps), the future climatic condition could be unsuitable for 2 (ssp126) - 34 % (ssp585) species. The mean elevation of the suitable habitat could increase by 238 %, and the situation could be more severe for the threatened butterflies. Further, 54 % of the realised niche of butterflies could be altered. Although there might be no significant association between the shift in habitat suitability along the elevational gradient, migratory species could experience a more significant shift than non-migrants. Overall, climate change could have a severe impact on Bangladeshi butterflies. To mitigate insect decline globally and meet the Post 2020 Biodiversity Framework targets, immediate detection of climate change impact on tropical insects and developing effective conservation strategies is essential.

Bioclimatic controls of CO2 assimilation near range limits of the CAM succulent tree Aloidendron dichotomum

Aloidendron dichotomum appears to be undergoing the early stages of a range shift in response to anthropogenic climate change in south-western Africa. High mortality has been recorded in warmer populations, while population expansions have been recorded in cooler poleward parts of its range. This study aimed to determine the key environmental controls on A. dichotomum photosynthesis in areas of population expansion, to inform the potential attribution of directional population expansion to anthropogenic warming. Nocturnal acid accumulation and CO2 assimilation were measured in individuals growing under a range of temperature and watering treatments in a greenhouse experiment. In addition, nocturnal acid accumulation and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase activity were quantified in two wild populations at the most southerly and south-easterly range extents. Multiple lines of evidence confirmed that A. dichotomum performs Crassulacean acid metabolism. Total nocturnal acid accumulation was highest at night-time temperatures of ~21.5 °C, regardless of soil water availability, and night-time CO2 assimilation rates increased with leaf temperature, suggesting a causal link to the cool southern range limit. Leaf acidity at the start of the dark period was highly predictive of nocturnal acid accumulation in all individuals, implicating light availability during the day as an important determinant of nocturnal acid accumulation.

Dispersal abilities favor commensalism in animal-plant interactions under climate change

Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and dispersal limitations might affect the responses of Brazil nut-dependent frogs facing projected climate change. Using ecological niche modelling and dispersal simulations, we forecast the future distributions of the Brazil nut tree and three commensalist frog species over time (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090) in the regional rivalry (SSP370) scenario that includes great challenges to mitigation and adaptation. With the exception of one species, projections point to a decrease in suitable habitats of up to 40.6%. For frog species with potential reductions of co-occurrence areas, this is expected to reduce up to 23.8% of suitable areas for binomial animal-plant relationships. Even so, biotic interactions should not be lost over time. Species will depend on their own dispersal abilities to reach analogous climates in the future for maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa. However, ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa should be maintained in accordance with their own dispersal ability. When dispersal limitation is included in the models, the suitable range of all three frog species is reduced considerably by the end of the century. This highlights the importance of dispersal limitation inclusion for forecasting future distribution ranges when biotic interactions matter.

Maximum Entropy Modeling the Distribution Area of Morchella Dill. ex Pers. Species in China under Changing Climate

Morchella is a kind of precious edible, medicinal fungi with a series of important effects, including anti-tumor and anti-oxidation effects. Based on the data of 18 environmental variables and the distribution sites of wild Morchella species, this study used a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the changes in the geographic distribution of Morchella species in different historical periods (the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid Holocene (MH), current, 2050s and 2070s). The results revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) values of the receiver operating characteristic curves of different periods were all relatively high (>0.83), indicating that the results of the maximum entropy model are good. Species distribution modeling showed that the major factors influencing the geographical distribution of Morchella species were the precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio17), elevation, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) and the annual mean temperature (Bio1). The simulation of geographic distribution suggested that the current suitable habitat of Morchella was mainly located in Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and other provinces in China. Compared with current times, the suitable area in Northwest and Northeast China decreased in the LGM and MH periods. As for the future periods, the suitable habitats all increased under the different scenarios compared with those in contemporary times, showing a trend of expansion to Northeast and Northwest China. These results could provide a theoretical basis for the protection, rational exploitation and utilization of wild Morchella resources under scenarios of climate change.

Circular biomanufacturing through harvesting solar energy and CO2

Using synthetic biology, it is now time to expand the biosynthetic repertoire of plants and microalgae by utilizing the chloroplast to augment the production of desired high-value compounds and of oil-, carbohydrate-, or protein-enriched biomass based on direct harvesting of solar energy and the consumption of CO₂. Multistream product lines based on separate commercialization of the isolated high-value compounds and of the improved bulk products increase the economic potential of the light-driven production system and accelerate commercial scale up. Here we outline the scientific basis for the establishment of such green circular biomanufacturing systems and highlight recent results that make this a realistic option based on cross-disciplinary basic and applied research to advance long-term solutions.

Venomous animals in a changing world

The climatic changes of the next decades will modify human and livestock interactions with venomous animals; Some venomous species will disappear in the coming decades; Other venomous species will shift their distributions or increase their geographic ranges invading new countries that may not have specific antivenoms.

Climate change and niche unfilling tend to favor range expansion of Moina macrocopa Straus 1820, a potentially invasive cladoceran in temporary waters

Non-native species' introductions have increased in the last decades primarily due to anthropogenic causes such as climate change and globalization of trade. Moina macrocopa, a stress-tolerant cladoceran widely used in bioassays and aquaculture, is spreading in temporary and semi-temporary natural ponds outside its natural range. Here, we characterize the variations in the climatic niche of M. macrocopa during its invasions outside the native Palearctic range following introduction into the American continent. Specifically, we examined to what extent the climatic responses of this species have diverged from those characteristics for its native range. We also made predictions for its potential distribution under current and future scenarios. We found that the environmental space occupied by this species in its native and introduced distribution areas shares more characteristics than randomly expected. However, the introduced niche has a high degree of unfilling when displacing its original space towards the extension to drier and hotter conditions. Accordingly, M. macrocopa can invade new areas where it has not yet been recorded in response to warming temperatures and decreasing winter precipitation. In particular, temporary ponds are more vulnerable environments where climatic and environmental stresses may also lower biotic resistance.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10750-022-04835-7.

Competition and resource depletion shape the thermal response of population fitness in Aedes aegypti

Mathematical models that incorporate the temperature dependence of lab-measured life history traits are increasingly being used to predict how climatic warming will affect ectotherms, including disease vectors and other arthropods. These temperature-trait relationships are typically measured under laboratory conditions that ignore how conspecific competition in depleting resource environments—a commonly occurring scenario in nature—regulates natural populations. Here, we used laboratory experiments on the mosquito Aedes aegypti, combined with a stage-structured population model, to investigate this issue. We find that intensified larval competition in ecologically-realistic depleting resource environments can significantly diminish the vector’s maximal population-level fitness across the entire temperature range, cause a ~6 °C decrease in the optimal temperature for fitness, and contract its thermal niche width by ~10 °C. Our results provide evidence for the importance of considering intra-specific competition under depleting resources when predicting how arthropod populations will respond to climatic warming.

Huxley et al. use laboratory experiments to examine how environmental resource depletion impacts temperature-dependent traits observed in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The authors find that the conspecific competition dynamics of larvae significantly alter how the mosquito’s population-level fitness responds to temperature, shedding light on how arthropods and other disease vectors may respond to environmental change.

Predicting the current and future global distribution of the invasive freshwater hydrozoan Craspedacusta sowerbii

The freshwater jellyfish Craspedacusta sowerbii is one of the most widespread invasive species, but its global distribution remains uncertain due to ephemeral appearances and general lack of information in various aquatic environments. The aim of this study was to map current and future distributions (2050 and 2100) using Species Distribution Models allowing to visualize the habitat suitability and make projections of its changes under potential climate change scenarios. Except in Oceania where the range decreased, an expansion of C. sowerbii was projected during the next century under modeled future scenarios being most intensive during the first half of the century. The present study shows that the expansion of C. sowerbii worldwide would be facilitated mainly by precipitation, vapor pressure, and temperature. The predictions showed that this species over the eighty years will invade high-latitude regions in both hemispheres with ecological consequences in already threatened freshwater ecosystems.

Land-use change and biodiversity: Challenges for assembling evidence on the greatest threat to nature

Land-use change is considered the greatest threat to nature, having caused worldwide declines in the abundance, diversity, and health of species and ecosystems. Despite increasing research on this global change driver, there are still challenges to forming an effective synthesis. The estimated impact of land-use change on biodiversity can depend on location, research methods, and taxonomic focus, with recent global meta-analyses reaching disparate conclusions. Here, we critically appraise this research body and our ability to reach a reliable consensus. We employ named entity recognition to analyze more than 4000 abstracts, alongside full reading of 100 randomly selected papers. We highlight the broad range of study designs and methodologies used; the most common being local space-for-time comparisons that classify land use in situ. Species metrics including abundance, distribution, and diversity were measured more frequently than complex responses such as demography, vital rates, and behavior. We identified taxonomic biases, with vertebrates well represented while detritivores were largely missing. Omitting this group may hinder our understanding of how land-use change affects ecosystem feedback. Research was heavily biased toward temperate forested biomes in North America and Europe, with warmer regions being acutely underrepresented despite offering potential insights into the future effects of land-use change under novel climates. Various land-use histories were covered, although more research in understudied regions including Africa and the Middle East is required to capture regional differences in the form of current and historical land-use practices. Failure to address these challenges will impede our global understanding of land-use change impacts on biodiversity, limit the reliability of future projections and have repercussions for the conservation of threatened species. Beyond identifying literature biases, we highlight the research priorities and data gaps that need urgent attention and offer perspectives on how to move forward.

Broadening Predictive Understanding of Species’ Range Responses to Climate Change: The Case of Aloidendron dichotomum

Concerns have been raised about attribution of species range shifts to anthropogenic climate change. Species paleo-range projections are emerging as a means to broaden understanding of range shifts and could be applied to assist in attribution. Apparent recent range contraction in the Quiver Tree (Aloidendron dichotomum (Masson) Klopper and Gideon F.Sm) has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but this has been challenged. We simulated the paleo- and future geographic range of A. dichotomum under changing climate using species distribution models (SDMs) to provide a broader perspective on its range dynamics. Ensemble modelling of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene, current, and projected 2070 time periods simulates a paleo-historical poleward expansion of suitable bioclimatic space for this species under natural climate change post-LGM, and projects an eastward shift towards 2070. During the LGM, suitable bioclimatic space for A. dichotomum was simulated to be restricted to the equatorward part of its current range. During the Pleistocene/mid-Holocene climate transition period, the species’ range is predicted to have expanded significantly polewards at an average rate of 0.4 km per decade, assuming constant tracking of its optimal climatic niche. By 2070, suitable bioclimatic space is projected to expand further eastward into the summer rainfall region of South Africa, and contract in its equatorward reaches. Simulated post-LGM shifts roughly match expectations based on preliminary phylogenetic information, further supporting the attribution of current population declines to anthropogenic climate change drivers. Equatorward populations are required to migrate south-eastwards at a rate roughly 15 times faster than that calculated for the LGM/mid-Holocene climate transition period to avoid local extirpation. A preliminary analysis of range-wide genetic variation reveals a cline of variation, with generally higher levels in the central and more northerly part of the species distribution, as expected from the proposed paleo-range of the species. A more detailed analysis of the species’ phylogeographic history could be used to test the proposed paleo-range dynamics presented here, and if confirmed, would provide strong support for the use of this species as an indicator of anthropogenic climate change and a powerful case study for testing the implementation of conservation actions.