Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems

Shaping and enhancing resilient forests for a resilient society

The world is currently facing uncertainty caused by environmental, social, and economic changes and by political shocks. Fostering social-ecological resilience by enhancing forests' ability to provide a range of ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, habitat provision, and sustainable livelihoods, is key to addressing such uncertainty. However, policy makers and managers currently lack a clear understanding of how to operationalise the shaping of resilience through the combined challenges of climate change, the biodiversity crisis, and changes in societal demand. Based on a scientific literature review, we identified a set of actions related to ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, and disturbance and pressure impacts that forest managers and policy makers should attend to enhance the resilience of European forest systems. We conclude that the resilience shaping of forests should (1) adopt an operational approach, which is currently lacking, (2) identify and address existing and future trade-offs while reinforcing win-wins and (3) attend to local particularities through an adaptive management approach.

Revisiting the hydrological legacy of revegetation on China's Loess Plateau using Eagleson's ecohydrological perspective

Revegetation has resulted in a trend of increasing vegetation greenness on the Chinese Loess Plateau. However, it remains unclear whether the regional vegetation coverage exceeds hydroclimatic limitations in the context of revegetation, and the hydrological effects of greening are controversial. Eagleson's optimality hypothesis can explain some of the hydrological effects on the Loess Plateau. Here, building on previous research, the geospatial vegetation states were estimated for pre- and post-revegetation periods on the Loess Plateau from 1982 to 2015 using Eagleson's ecological optimality theory. Additionally, a drought composite analysis approach was utilized to investigate the hydrological effects related to drought (including sensitivity and partitioning) under various vegetation states. It was found that revegetation increased the proportion of catchments in the equilibrium state and decreased the proportion in the disturbed state, owing to a wetter climate compared with the pre-revegetation period. Root-zone soil drought, driven by precipitation (P) deficit, asymmetrically triggered hydrological effects for both the pre- and post-revegetation periods, with reduced runoff (Q) for both periods and a decrease in evapotranspiration (ET) during the pre-revegetation period but an increase in ET during the post-revegetation period. Moreover, catchments in an equilibrium state exhibited lower sensitivity between ET and P, and more stable partitioning of ET with regards to P, compared with those in a disturbed state. These results underscore the theoretical framework that an equilibrium state is crucial for maintaining ecosystem ET. Our results highlight the necessity of considering the hydrologic regulation of vegetation states when assessing the hydrological effects of vegetation change.

The interacting effect of climate change and herbivory can trigger large-scale transformations of European temperate forests

In many regions of Europe, large wild herbivores alter forest community composition through their foraging preferences, hinder the forest's natural adaptive responses to climate change, and reduce ecosystem resilience. We investigated a widespread European forest type, a mixed forest dominated by Picea abies, which has recently experienced an unprecedented level of disturbance across the continent. Using the forest landscape model iLand, we investigated the combined effect of climate change and herbivory on forest structure, composition, and carbon and identified conditions leading to ecosystem transitions on a 300-year timescale. Eight climate change scenarios, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, combined with three levels of regeneration browsing, were tested. We found that the persistence of the current level of browsing pressure impedes adaptive changes in community composition and sustains the presence of the vulnerable yet less palatable P. abies. These development trajectories were tortuous, characterized by a high disturbance intensity. On the contrary, reduced herbivory initiated a transformation towards the naturally dominant broadleaved species that was associated with an increased forest carbon and a considerably reduced disturbance. The conditions of RCP4.5 combined with high and moderate browsing levels preserved the forest within its reference range of variability, defining the actual boundaries of resilience. The remaining combinations of browsing and climate change led to ecosystem transitions. Under RCP4.5 with browsing effects excluded, the new equilibrium conditions were achieved within 120 years, whereas the stabilization was delayed by 50-100 years under RCP8.5 with higher browsing intensities. We conclude that forests dominated by P. abies are prone to transitions driven by climate change. However, reducing herbivory can set the forest on a stable and predictable trajectory, whereas sustaining the current browsing levels can lead to heightened disturbance activity, extended transition times, and high variability in the target conditions.

Adaptable leadership for arid/semi-arid wetlands conservation under climate change: Using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach

Adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts of climate change on wetlands have enforced the international community and many nations to develop adaptive policies for wetland management, which require effective leadership to influence relevant stakeholders. This study identifies and prioritizes leadership functions and theories for climate change adaptation (CCA) in wetlands ecosystems, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. A mixed qualitative-quantitative research methodology was applied through focus groups and a survey with a sample of national, sub-national, and local experts on wetlands management and climate change in Iran. The Analytic Hierarchy Processing (AHP) technique identified the political-administrative (weight = 0.245), adaptive (W = 0.244), and enabling (W = 0.237) functions for CCA, respectively, as three prioritized leadership functions, followed by the dissemination function (W = 0.102), which emphasizes the necessity of applying and enhancing leaders' social capacities, knowledge, communication skills, and personal networks to facilitate social learning and actions regarding CCA in local communities and among relevant organizations. It is necessary to overcome structural and functional barriers for leaders and their followers to information access and involvement in participatory decision-making platforms. Moreover, network and communication leadership theories (W = 0.368) and sustainable leadership perspectives (W = 0.362), respectively, have the highest priority among leadership theories and are crucial for establishing participatory decision-making among relevant stakeholders and applying adaptive strategies for wetlands governance under climate change conditions. The reconceptualization of leadership as a complex adaptive notion draws attention to the social complexities and emerging characteristics of leadership in contemporary societies and organizations. The understanding of leaders' and followers' networks and identifying the core role of leaders provides a foundation for developing leadership functions and theories beyond hierarchical, individualistic, and one-way concepts of leadership.

A dendritic porous copper foam-carbonic anhydrase biohybrid for carbon dioxide electroreduction

Carbonic anhydrase (CA) is bound to a dendritic porous copper foam (3D-Cu) via electrostatic interaction to form a biohybrid (CA/3D-Cu), which exhibits high selectivity and Faraday efficiency in the electroreduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) to formic acid (selectivity of 98.7%, Faraday efficiency of 82.1%) due to the large specific surface area of the 3D-Cu and the ultra-high CO2 hydration capacity of CA.

A unified explanation for the morphology of raised peatlands

Raised peatlands, or bogs, are gently mounded landforms that are composed entirely of organic matter1-4 and store the most carbon per area of any terrestrial ecosystem5. The shapes of bogs are critically important because their domed morphology4,6,7 accounts for much of the carbon that bogs store and determines how they will respond to interventions8,9 to stop greenhouse gas emissions and fires after anthropogenic drainage10-13. However, a general theory to infer the morphology of bogs is still lacking4,6,7. Here we show that an equation based on the processes universal to bogs explains their morphology across biomes, from Alaska, through the tropics, to New Zealand. In contrast to earlier models of bog morphology that attempted to describe only long-term equilibrium shapes4,6,7 and were, therefore, inapplicable to most bogs14-16, our approach makes no such assumption and makes it possible to infer full shapes of bogs from a sample of elevations, such as a single elevation transect. Our findings provide a foundation for quantitative inference about the morphology, hydrology and carbon storage of bogs through Earth's history, as well as a basis for planning natural climate solutions by rewetting damaged bogs around the world.

Modelling the regional potential for reaching carbon neutrality in Finland: Sustainable forestry, energy use and biodiversity protection

The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity (BD) strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for BD protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for BD protection according to the EU 10% protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426-452 TgC) and sequestration potential (- 12 to - 17.5 TgCO2eq a-1) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. The results of the study can be utilized for integrating climate and BD policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation.

Proposed solutions to anthropogenic climate change: A systematic literature review and a new way forward

Humanity is now facing what may be the biggest challenge to its existence: irreversible climate change brought about by human activity. Our planet is in a state of emergency, and we only have a short window of time (7-8 years) to enact meaningful change. The goal of this systematic literature review is to summarize the peer-reviewed literature on proposed solutions to climate change in the last 20 years (2002-2022), and to propose a framework for a unified approach to solving this climate change crisis. Solutions reviewed include a transition toward use of renewable energy resources, reduced energy consumption, rethinking the global transport sector, and nature-based solutions. This review highlights one of the most important but overlooked pieces in the puzzle of solving the climate change problem - the gradual shift to a plant-based diet and global phaseout of factory (industrialized animal) farming, the most damaging and prolific form of animal agriculture. The gradual global phaseout of industrialized animal farming can be achieved by increasingly replacing animal meat and other animal products with plant-based products, ending government subsidies for animal-based meat, dairy, and eggs, and initiating taxes on such products. Failure to act will ultimately result in a scenario of irreversible climate change with widespread famine and disease, global devastation, climate refugees, and warfare. We therefore suggest an "All Life" approach, invoking the interconnectedness of all life forms on our planet. The logistics for achieving this include a global standardization of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) or similar measures and the introduction of a regulatory body for verification of such measures. These approaches will help deliver environmental and sustainability benefits for our planet far beyond an immediate reduction in global warming.

Coastal aquaculture in Bangladesh: Sundarbans's role against climate change

The Sundarbans, a natural shield on earth, is one and only place that has many noteworthy environmental and geographical values with breathtaking natural beauties. Near the Sundarbans area, proliferation of aquaculture in this delta contributes appreciably to the national economy. Although aquaculture has become a means of daily livelihood, this sector is nevertheless threatened by a complex of climate change impacts. Cyclones, rising temperatures, rising sea levels, coastal flooding, and erosion make coastal farming difficult. As a panacea, the Sundarbans can play a critical role in preserving coastal aquaculture. As noticed, forests have high potential to recover from unusual consequences of climate change. Practicing safe aquaculture should be opted to refrain from endangering the Sundarbans. This review addressed various climate change impacts on coastal farming and identified the capabilities of the Sundarbans to protect coastal aquaculture from calamitous impacts. Findings show clues for researchers to analyze problems, consequences, and mitigations.

Overcoming the coupled climate and biodiversity crises and their societal impacts

Earth's biodiversity and human societies face pollution, overconsumption of natural resources, urbanization, demographic shifts, social and economic inequalities, and habitat loss, many of which are exacerbated by climate change. Here, we review links among climate, biodiversity, and society and develop a roadmap toward sustainability. These include limiting warming to 1.5°C and effectively conserving and restoring functional ecosystems on 30 to 50% of land, freshwater, and ocean "scapes." We envision a mosaic of interconnected protected and shared spaces, including intensively used spaces, to strengthen self-sustaining biodiversity, the capacity of people and nature to adapt to and mitigate climate change, and nature's contributions to people. Fostering interlinked human, ecosystem, and planetary health for a livable future urgently requires bold implementation of transformative policy interventions through interconnected institutions, governance, and social systems from local to global levels.

Hyposensitive canopy conductance renders ecosystems vulnerable to meteorological droughts

Increased meteorological drought intensity with rising atmospheric demand for water (hereafter vapor pressure deficit [VPD]) increases the risk of tree mortality and ecosystem dysfunction worldwide. Ecosystem-scale water-use strategy is increasingly recognized as a key factor in regulating drought-related ecosystem responses. However, the link between water-use strategy and ecosystem vulnerability to meteorological droughts is poorly established. Using the global flux observations, historic hydroclimatic data, remote-sensing products, and plant functional-trait archive, we identified potentially vulnerable ecosystems, examining how ecosystem water-use strategy, quantified by the percentage bias (δ) of the empirical canopy conductance sensitivity to VPD relative to the theoretical value, mediated ecosystem responses to droughts. We found that prevailing soil water availability substantially impacted δ in dryland regions where ecosystems with insufficient soil moisture usually showed conservative water-use strategy, while ecosystems in humid regions exhibited more pronounced climatic adaptability. Hyposensitive and hypersensitive ecosystems, classified based on δ falling below or above the theoretical sensitivity, respectively, achieved similar net ecosystem productivity during droughts, employing different structural and functional strategies. However, hyposensitive ecosystems, risking their hydraulic system with a permissive water-use strategy, were unable to recover from droughts as quickly as hypersensitive ones. Our findings highlight that processed-based models predicting current functions and future performance of vegetation should account for the greater vulnerability of hyposensitive ecosystems to intensifying atmospheric and soil droughts.

Protected area designation and management in a world of climate change: A review of recommendations

Climate change is challenging conservation strategies for protected areas. To summarise current guidance, we systematically compiled recommendations from reviews of scientific literature (74 reviews fitting inclusion criteria) about how to adapt conservation strategies in the face of climate change. We focussed on strategies for designation and management of protected areas in terrestrial landscapes, in boreal and temperate regions. Most recommendations belonged to one of five dominating categories: (i) Ensure sufficient connectivity; (ii) Protect climate refugia; (iii) Protect a few large rather than many small areas; (iv) Protect areas predicted to become important for biodiversity in the future; and (v) Complement permanently protected areas with temporary protection. The uncertainties and risks caused by climate change imply that additional conservation efforts are necessary to reach conservation goals. To protect biodiversity in the future, traditional biodiversity conservation strategies should be combined with strategies purposely developed in response to a warming climate.

Aboveground biomass of marshes in Northeast China: Spatial pattern and annual changes responding to climate change

Examining vegetation aboveground biomass (AGB) changes is important to understanding wetland carbon sequestration. Here, we combined the field-measured AGB data (458 samples) from 2009 to 2021, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer reflectance products, and climatic data to reveal the AGB variations of marshes in Northeast China by comparing various models driven by different indicators. The results indicated that random forest model driven by six vegetation indices, land surface temperature, and land surface water index achieved accurate marsh AGB estimation with R2 being 0.78 and relative error being 16.71%. The mean marsh AGB in Northeast China from 2000 to 2021 was 682.89 ± 31.69 g·m−2, which generally increased from north to south in space. Temporally, annual marsh AGB declined slowly at a rate of 3.45 g·m−2·year−1 during the past 21 years driven mainly by the decrease in summer mean temperature that was characterized by a significantly positive correlation between them. Nevertheless, we highlighted that the temporal changes of marsh AGB spatially varied in response to inconsistent climate change, thus place-based measures are required for sustainable management of marshes.

Elevated O3 Exerts Stronger Effects than Elevated CO2 on the Functional Guilds of Fungi, but Collectively Increase the Structural Complexity of Fungi in a Paddy Soil

Global climate change is characterized by altered global atmospheric composition, including elevated CO₂ and O₃, with important consequences on soil fungal communities. However, the function and community composition of soil fungi in response to elevated CO₂ together with elevated O₃ in paddy soils remain largely unknown. Here we used twelve open-top chamber facilities (OTCs) to evaluate the interactive effect of CO₂ (+ 200 ppm) and O₃ (+ 40 ppb) on the diversity, gene abundance, community structure, and functional composition of soil fungi during the growing seasons of two rice cultivars (Japonica, Wuyujing 3 vs. Nangeng 5055) in a Chinese paddy soil. Elevated CO₂ and O₃ showed no individual or combined effect on the gene abundance or relative abundance of soil fungi, but increased structural complexity of soil fungal communities, indicating that elevated CO₂ and/or O₃ promoted the competition of species-species interactions. When averaged both cultivars, elevated CO₂ showed no individual effect on the diversity or abundance of functional guilds of soil fungi. By contrast, elevated O₃ significantly reduced the relative abundance and diversity of symbiotrophic fungi by an average of 47.2% and 39.1%, respectively. Notably, elevated O₃ exerts stronger effects on the functional processes of fungal communities than elevated CO₂. The structural equation model revealed that elevated CO₂ and/or O₃ indirectly affected the functional composition of soil fungi through community structure and diversity of soil fungi. Root C/N and soil environmental parameters were identified as the top direct predictors for the community structure of soil fungi. Furthermore, significant correlations were identified between saprotrophic fungi and root biomass, symbiotrophic fungi and root carbon, the pathotroph-symbiotroph and soil pH, as well as pathotroph-saprotroph-symbiotroph and soil microbial biomass carbon. These results suggest that climatic factors substantially affected the functional processes of soil fungal, and threatened soil function and food production, highlighting the detrimental impacts of high O₃ on the function composition of soil biota.

Climate change-associated multifactorial stress combination: A present challenge for our ecosystems

Humans negatively influence Earth ecosystems and biodiversity causing global warming, climate change as well as man-made pollution. Recently, the number of different stress factors have increased, and when impacting simultaneously, the multiple stress conditions cause dramatic declines in plant and ecosystem health. Although much is known about how plants and ecosystems are affected by each individual stress, recent research efforts have diverted into how these biological systems respond to several of these stress conditions applied together. Studies of such "multifactorial stress combination" concept have reported a severe decrease in plant survival and microbiome biodiversity along the increasing number of factors in a consistent directional trend. In addition, these results are in concert with studies about how ecosystems and microbiota are affected by natural conditions imposed by climate change. Therefore, all this evidence should serve as an important warning in order to decrease pollutants, create strategies to deal with global warming, and increase the tolerance of plants to multiple stressful factors in combination. Here we review recent studies focused on the impact of abiotic stresses on plants, agrosystems and different ecosystems including forests and microecosystems. In addition, different strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change in ecosystems are discussed.

Key Strategies Underlying the Adaptation of Mongolian Scots Pine (Pinussylvestris var. mongolica) in Sandy Land under Climate Change: A Review

Forest degradation and mortality have been widely reported in the context of increasingly significant global climate change. As the country with the largest total tree plantation area globally, China has a great responsibility in forestry management to cope with climate change effectively. Mongolian Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) was widely introduced from its natural sites in China into several other sandy land areas for establishing shelterbelt in the Three-North Shelter Forest Program, scoring outstanding achievements in terms of wind-breaking and sand-fixing. Mongolian Scots pine plantations in China cover a total area of ~800,000 hectares, with the eldest trees having >60 years. However, plantation trees have been affected by premature senescence in their middle-age stages (i.e., dieback, growth decline, and death) since the 1990s. This phenomenon has raised concerns about the suitability of Mongolian Scots pine to sandy habitats and the rationality for further afforestation, especially under the global climate change scenario. Fortunately, dieback has occurred only sporadically at specific sites and in certain years and has not spread to other regions in northern China; nevertheless, global climate change has become increasingly significant in that region. These observations reflect the strong drought resistance and adaptability of Mongolian Scots pines. In this review, we summarized the most recent findings on the ecohydrological attributes of Mongolian Scots pine during its adaptation to both fragile habitats and climate change. Five main species-specific strategies (i.e., opportunistic water absorb strategy, hydraulic failure risk avoidance strategy, water conservation strategy, functional traits adjustment strategy, rapid regeneration strategy) were summarized, providing deep insights into the tree–water relationship. Overall, the findings of this study can be applied to improve plantation management and better cope with climate-change-related drought stress.

How do we best synergize climate mitigation actions to co-benefit biodiversity?

A multitude of actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural and modified ecosystems can have co-benefits for both climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Reducing greenhouse emissions to limit warming to less than 1.5 or 2°C above preindustrial levels, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, can yield strong co-benefits for land, freshwater and marine biodiversity and reduce amplifying climate feedbacks from ecosystem changes. Not all climate mitigation strategies are equally effective at producing biodiversity co-benefits, some in fact are counterproductive. Moreover, social implications are often overlooked within the climate-biodiversity nexus. Protecting biodiverse and carbon-rich natural environments, ecological restoration of potentially biodiverse and carbon-rich habitats, the deliberate creation of novel habitats, taking into consideration a locally adapted and meaningful (i.e. full consequences considered) mix of these measures, can result in the most robust win-win solutions. These can be further enhanced by avoidance of narrow goals, taking long-term views and minimizing further losses of intact ecosystems. In this review paper, we first discuss various climate mitigation actions that evidence demonstrates can negatively impact biodiversity, resulting in unseen and unintended negative consequences. We then examine climate mitigation actions that co-deliver biodiversity and societal benefits. We give examples of these win-win solutions, categorized as 'protect, restore, manage and create', in different regions of the world that could be expanded, upscaled and used for further innovation.

An Analysis of Agricultural Systems Modelling Approaches and Examples to Support Future Policy Development under Disruptive Changes in New Zealand

Agricultural systems have entered a period of significant disruption due to impacts from change drivers, increasingly stringent environmental regulations and the need to reduce unwanted discharges, and emerging technologies and biotechnologies. Governments and industries are developing strategies to respond to the risks and opportunities associated with these disruptors. Modelling is a useful tool for system conceptualisation, understanding, and scenario testing. Today, New Zealand and other nations need integrated modelling tools at the national scale to help industries and stakeholders plan for future disruptive changes. In this paper, following a scoping review process, we analyse modelling approaches and available agricultural systems’ model examples per thematic applications at the regional to national scale to define the best options for the national policy development. Each modelling approach has specificities, such as stakeholder engagement capacity, complex systems reproduction, predictive or prospective scenario testing, and users should consider coupling approaches for greater added value. The efficiency of spatial decision support tools working with a system dynamics approach can help holistically in stakeholders’ participation and understanding, and for improving land planning and policy. This model combination appears to be the most appropriate for the New Zealand national context.

Setting priorities for climate change adaptation of Critical Sites in the Africa-Eurasian waterbird flyways

Despite their importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services, wetlands are among the most threatened ecosystems globally. The conservation of many migratory waterbirds depends on the conservation of a network of key sites along their flyways. However, the suitability of these sites is changing under climate change, and it is important that management of individual sites in the network adapts to these changes. Using bioclimatic models that also account for changes in inundation, we found that projected climate change will reduce habitat suitability for waterbirds at 57.5% of existing Critical Sites within Africa-Eurasia, varying from 20.1% in Eastern Europe to 87.0% in Africa. African and Middle East sites are particularly threatened, comprising 71 of the 100 most vulnerable sites. By highlighting priority sites for conservation and classifying Critical Sites into Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (CCAS) classes, our results can be used to support the climate change adaptation of both individual sites and the entire site network.

Identifying and prioritising climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) conservation in Nepal

Climate change has started impacting species, ecosystems, genetic diversity within species, and ecological interactions and is thus a serious threat to conserving biodiversity globally. In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, biodiversity may continue to decline, and many species will possibly become extinct. Given that global temperature continues to increase, climate change adaptation has emerged as an overarching framework for conservation planning. We identified both ongoing and probable climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros conservation in Nepal through a combination of literature review, key informant surveys (n = 53), focus group discussions (n = 37) and expert consultation (n = 9), and prioritised the identified adaptation actions through stakeholder consultation (n = 17). The majority of key informants (>80%) reported that climate change has been impacting rhinoceros, and more than 65% of them believe that rhinoceros habitat suitability in Nepal has been shifting westwards. Despite these perceived risks, climate change impacts have not been incorporated well into formal conservation planning for rhinoceros. Out of 20 identified adaptation actions under nine adaptation strategies, identifying and protecting climate refugia, restoring the existing habitats through wetland and grassland management, creating artificial highlands in floodplains to provide rhinoceros with refuge during severe floods, and translocating them to other suitable habitats received higher priority. These adaptation actions may contribute to reducing the vulnerability of rhinoceros to the likely impacts of climate change. This study is the first of its kind in Nepal and is expected to provide a guideline to align ongoing conservation measures into climate change adaptation planning for rhinoceros. Further, we emphasise the need to integrating likely climate change impacts while planning for rhinoceros conservation and initiating experimental research and monitoring programs to better inform adaptation planning in the future.

Road Salt Damage to Historical Milestones Indicates Adaptation of Winter Roads to Future Climate Change May Damage Arctic Cultural Heritage

There is no doubt that anthropogenic global warming is accelerating damage to cultural heritage. Adaptation measures are required to reduce the loss of sites, monuments and remains. However, little research has been directed towards understanding potential impacts of climate adaptation measures in other governmental sectors on cultural heritage. We provide a case study demonstrating that winter road salt, used to reduce ice related accidents, damages historical iron milestones. As the climate warms, road salt use will move north into areas where sites have been protected by contiguous winter snow cover. This will expose Artic/sub-Arctic cultural heritage, including Viking graves and Sami sites, to a new anthropogenic source of damage. Research and planning should therefore include the evaluation of secondary impacts when choosing climate adaptation strategies.

Maximizing the effectiveness of national commitments to protected area expansion for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem carbon under climate change

Global commitments to protected area expansion should prioritize opportunities to protect climate refugia and ecosystems which store high levels of irrecoverable carbon, as key components of an effective response to biodiversity loss and climate change. The United States and Canada are responsible for one-sixth of global greenhouse gas emissions but hold extensive natural ecosystems that store globally significant above- and below-ground carbon. Canada has initiated a process of protected area network expansion in concert with efforts at reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, and acknowledged nature-based solutions as a key aspect of climate change mitigation. The US, although not a party to global biodiversity conventions, has recently committed to protecting 30% of its extent by 2030 and achieving the UNFCCC Paris Agreement's mitigation targets. The opportunities afforded by these dual biodiversity conservation and climate commitments require coordinated national and regional policies to ensure that new protected areas maximize biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation opportunities. We address how global commitments can best inform national policy initiatives which build on existing agency mandates for regional planning and species conservation. Previous analyses of global conservation priorities under climate change have been tenuously linked to policy contexts of individual nations and have lacked information on refugia due to limitations of globally available datasets. Comparison and synthesis of predictions from a range of recently developed refugia metrics allow such data to inform planning despite substantial uncertainty arising from contrasting model assumptions and inputs. A case study for endangered species planning for old-forest-associated species in the US Pacific Northwest demonstrates how regional planning can be nested hierarchically within national biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation strategies which integrate refugia, connectivity, and ecosystem carbon metrics to holistically evaluate the role of different land designations and where carbon mitigation and protection of biodiversity's resilience to climate change can be aligned.

Increasing climatic sensitivity of global grassland vegetation biomass and species diversity correlates with water availability

Grasslands are key repositories of biodiversity and carbon storage and are heavily impacted by effects of global warming and changes in precipitation regimes. Patterns of grassland dynamics associated with variability in future climate conditions across spatiotemporal scales are yet to be adequately quantified. Here, we performed a global meta-analysis of year and growing season sensitivities of vegetation aboveground biomass (AGB), aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), and species richness (SR) and diversity (Shannon index, H) to experimental climate warming and precipitation shifts. All four variables were sensitive to climate change. Their sensitivities to shifts in precipitation were correlated with local background water availability, such as mean annual precipitation (MAP) and aridity, and AGB and ANPP sensitivities were greater in dry habitats than in nonwater-limited habitats. There was no effect of duration of experiment (short vs long term) on sensitivities. Temporal trends in ANPP and SR sensitivity depended on local water availability; ANPP sensitivity to warming increased over time and SR sensitivity to irrigation decreased over time. Our results provide a global overview of the sensitivities of grassland function and diversity to climate change that will improve the understanding of ecological responses across spatiotemporal scales and inform policies for conservation in dry climates.

R-R-T (resistance-resilience-transformation) typology reveals differential conservation approaches across ecosystems and time

Conservation practices during the first decade of the millennium predominantly focused on resisting changes and maintaining historical or current conditions, but ever-increasing impacts from climate change have highlighted the need for transformative action. However, little empirical evidence exists on what kinds of conservation actions aimed specifically at climate change adaptation are being implemented in practice, let alone how transformative these actions are. In response, we propose and trial a novel typology-the R-R-T scale, which improves on existing concepts of Resistance, Resilience, and Transformation-that enables the practical application of contested terms and the empirical assessment of whether and to what extent a shift toward transformative action is occurring. When applying the R-R-T scale to a case study of 104 adaptation projects funded since 2011, we find a trend towards transformation that varies across ecosystems. Our results reveal that perceptions about the acceptance of novel interventions in principle are beginning to be expressed in practice.

Achieving Carbon Neutrality for A Future Large Greenhouse Gas Emitter in Quebec, Canada: A Case Study

To reach the Paris Agreement targets of holding the global temperature increase below 2 °C above the preindustrial levels, every human activity will need to be carbon neutral by 2050. Feasible means for industries to achieve carbon neutrality must be developed and assessed economically. Herein we present a case study on available solutions to achieve net-zero carbon from the get-go for a planned liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Quebec, which would classify as a large Canadian greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. From a literature review, available options were prioritized with the promoter. Each prioritized potential solution is discussed in light of its feasibility and the associated economic opportunities and challenges. Although net-zero carbon is feasible from the get-go, results show that the promoter should identify opportunities to reduce as much as possible emissions at source, cooperate with other industries for CO2 capture and utilization, replace natural gas from fossil sources by renewable sources and offset the remaining emissions by planting trees and/or buying offsets on the compliance and voluntary markets. As some of these solutions are still to be developed, to ensure timely net-zero pledge for the lifespan of the LNG plant, a portfolio and progressive approach to combine offsets and other options is preferable.

Achieving Quality Forest and Landscape Restoration in the Tropics

Forest and landscape restoration (FLR) is being carried out across the world to meet ambitious global goals. However, the scale of these efforts combined with the timeframe in which they are supposed to take place may compromise the quality of restoration, and thus limit the persistence of restoration on the landscape. This paper presents a synthesis of ten case studies identified as FLR to critically analyse implemented initiatives, their outcomes, and main challenges, with an eye to improving future efforts. The identified FLR projects are diverse in terms of their spatial coverage, objectives; types of interventions; and initial socioeconomic, institutional, and environmental conditions. The six principles of FLR—which have been widely adopted in theory by large global organisations—are inadequately addressed across the initiatives presented here. The identified FLR project or interventions, although expected to offer diverse benefits, face many challenges including the lack of long-term sustainability of project interventions, limited uptake by regional and national agencies, limited monitoring, reporting and learning, poor governance structures, and technical barriers, which are mainly owing to institutional weaknesses. On the basis of these cases, we propose that the best pathway to achieving FLR is via an incremental process in which a smaller number of more achievable objectives are set and implemented over time, rather than setting highly ambitious targets that implementers struggle to achieve.

Patience and climate change mitigation: Global evidence

Complex policy problems such as climate mitigation have an economic, political, and social dimension. We focus on one of the social dimensions of climate change mitigation: the link between society-wide patience (future orientation) and adoption of public policies to combat global greenhouse gas emissions. Theoretically, future-oriented societies are more likely to accept current costs in exchange for long-run benefits posed by climate change mitigation than impatient (present-oriented) ones, cooperate in efforts to combat climate change, and support future-oriented governments. We evaluate this claim using evidence from a cross-section of countries. Controlling for other theoretically relevant factors, we find that patient societies are more likely to adopt public policies to mitigate climate change.

Human Activities Enhance Radiation Forcing through Surface Albedo Associated with Vegetation in Beijing

The impact of human activities on vegetation has been the focus of much research, but the impact on radiation energy through surface albedo associated with vegetation greenness and length of the growth season is still not well documented. Based on the land cover data for the years 2000 and 2015, this study first divided the land cover change in Beijing from 2000 to 2015 into five types according to the impact of human activities and vegetation resilience, namely, old urban areas (OU), urban expansion areas (UE), cropland (CP), mixed pixel areas (MP, which means the land covers other than urban expansion which had changed from 2000 to 2015), and the residual vegetation cover areas (pure pixels (PP), dominated by natural and seminatural vegetation, such as grassland, forest, and wetland). Then, we calculated the direct radiative forcing from the albedo change from 2000 to 2015 and analyzed the effect of vegetation on the albedo under different land cover types based on multi-resource Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products of vegetation, albedo, and solar radiation. The results showed that the most typical changes in land cover were from urban expansion. By comparing the PP with the four human-affected land cover types (OU, UE, MP, and CP), we confirmed that the radiative forcing increment between 2001–2003 and 2013–2015 in PP (0.01 W/m2) was much smaller than that in the four human-affected land cover types (the mean increment was 0.92 W/m2). This study highlights that human activities affected vegetation growth. This, in turn, brought changes in the albedo, thereby enhancing radiative forcing in Beijing during 2000–2015.

Evaluating the Adaptation of Chinese Torreya Plantations to Climate Change

Studying the capacity of some plant species to adapt to climate change is essential for ecological research and agricultural policy development. Chinese Torreya (Torreya grandis ‘Merrillii’) has been an important crop tree in subtropical China for over a thousand years. It is necessary to characterize its adaptation to climate change. In this study, the average monthly temperature and precipitation from 1901 to 2017 in the six regions with Chinese Torreya plantations at different provinces were analyzed. The results indicated that the average annual air temperature across these regions had increased by about 2.0 °C, but no general trend in the annual precipitation and incidence of drought was found. The annual air temperature that Chinese Torreya plantations had experienced was 12.96–18.23 °C; the highest and the lowest average monthly air temperatures were 30.1 °C and −0.8 °C, respectively. The lowest and the highest annual precipitation were 874.56 mm and 2501.88 mm, respectively. Chinese Torreya trees endured a severe drought period in the 1920s. The monthly air temperature at Zhuji, which is the central production region, showed a significant correlation with the air temperature in the other five regions. The monthly precipitation in Hunan and Guizhou had no significant correlation with that of Zhuji. Chinese Torreya plantations have been grown in the regions with a similar climate distance index of air temperatures but different precipitation. This tree has a high capacity to adapt to climate change based on the climate dynamics across its range. This approach may provide a way to evaluate climate adaptation in other tree species. These results may provide helpful information for the development of Chinese Torreya plantations.