SARS-CoV-2 transmission, persistence of immunity, and estimates of Omicron's impact in South African population cohorts

Recent approaches in computational modelling for controlling pathogen threats

In this review, we assess the status of computational modelling of pathogens. We focus on three disparate but interlinked research areas that produce models with very different spatial and temporal scope. First, we examine antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Many mechanisms of AMR are not well understood. As a result, it is hard to measure the current incidence of AMR, predict the future incidence, and design strategies to preserve existing antibiotic effectiveness. Next, we look at how to choose the finite number of bacterial strains that can be included in a vaccine. To do this, we need to understand what happens to vaccine and non-vaccine strains after vaccination programmes. Finally, we look at within-host modelling of antibody dynamics. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic produced huge amounts of antibody data, prompting improvements in this area of modelling. We finish by discussing the challenges that persist in understanding these complex biological systems.

The Value Proposition of Coordinated Population Cohorts Across Africa

Building longitudinal population cohorts in Africa for coordinated research and surveillance can influence the setting of national health priorities, lead to the introduction of appropriate interventions, and provide evidence for targeted treatment, leading to better health across the continent. However, compared to cohorts from the global north, longitudinal continental African population cohorts remain scarce, are relatively small in size, and lack data complexity. As infections and noncommunicable diseases disproportionately affect Africa's approximately 1.4 billion inhabitants, African cohorts present a unique opportunity for research and surveillance. High genetic diversity in African populations and multiomic research studies, together with detailed phenotyping and clinical profiling, will be a treasure trove for discovery. The outcomes, including novel drug targets, biological pathways for disease, and gene-environment interactions, will boost precision medicine approaches, not only in Africa but across the globe.

SARS-CoV-2 correlates of protection from infection against variants of concern

Serum neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) induced by vaccination have been linked to protection against symptomatic and severe coronavirus disease 2019. However, much less is known about the efficacy of nAbs in preventing the acquisition of infection, especially in the context of natural immunity and against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immune-escape variants. Here we conducted mediation analysis to assess serum nAbs induced by prior SARS-CoV-2 infections as potential correlates of protection against Delta and Omicron infections, in rural and urban household cohorts in South Africa. We find that, in the Delta wave, D614G nAbs mediate 37% (95% confidence interval: 34-40%) of the total protection against infection conferred by prior exposure to SARS-CoV-2, and that protection decreases with waning immunity. In contrast, Omicron BA.1 nAbs mediate 11% (95% confidence interval: 9-12%) of the total protection against Omicron BA.1 or BA.2 infections, due to Omicron's neutralization escape. These findings underscore that correlates of protection mediated through nAbs are variant specific, and that boosting of nAbs against circulating variants might restore or confer immune protection lost due to nAb waning and/or immune escape. However, the majority of immune protection against SARS-CoV-2 conferred by natural infection cannot be fully explained by serum nAbs alone. Measuring these and other immune markers including T cell responses, both in the serum and in other compartments such as the nasal mucosa, may be required to comprehensively understand and predict immune protection against SARS-CoV-2.

COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Africa: A scoping review of the use of mathematical models to inform policy

OBJECTIVE

Mathematical models are vital tools to understand transmission dynamics and assess the impact of interventions to mitigate COVID-19. However, historically, their use in Africa has been limited. In this scoping review, we assess how mathematical models were used to study COVID-19 vaccination to potentially inform pandemic planning and response in Africa.

METHODS

We searched six electronic databases: MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, Global Health, MathSciNet and Africa-Wide NiPAD, using keywords to identify articles focused on the use of mathematical modelling studies of COVID-19 vaccination in Africa that were published as of October 2022. We extracted the details on the country, author affiliation, characteristics of models, policy intent and heterogeneity factors. We assessed quality using 21-point scale criteria on model characteristics and content of the studies.

RESULTS

The literature search yielded 462 articles, of which 32 were included based on the eligibility criteria. Nineteen (59%) studies had a first author affiliated with an African country. Of the 32 included studies, 30 (94%) were compartmental models. By country, most studies were about or included South Africa (n = 12, 37%), followed by Morocco (n = 6, 19%) and Ethiopia (n = 5, 16%). Most studies (n = 19, 59%) assessed the impact of increasing vaccination coverage on COVID-19 burden. Half (n = 16, 50%) had policy intent: prioritising or selecting interventions, pandemic planning and response, vaccine distribution and optimisation strategies and understanding transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Fourteen studies (44%) were of medium quality and eight (25%) were of high quality.

CONCLUSIONS

While decision-makers could draw vital insights from the evidence generated from mathematical modelling to inform policy, we found that there was limited use of such models exploring vaccination impacts for COVID-19 in Africa. The disparity can be addressed by scaling up mathematical modelling training, increasing collaborative opportunities between modellers and policymakers, and increasing access to funding.

High SARS-CoV-2 incidence and asymptomatic fraction during Delta and Omicron BA.1 waves in The Gambia

Little is known about SARS-CoV-2 infection risk in African countries with high levels of infection-driven immunity and low vaccine coverage. We conducted a prospective cohort study of 349 participants from 52 households in The Gambia between March 2021 and June 2022, with routine weekly SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR and 6-monthly SARS-CoV-2 serology. Attack rates of 45% and 57% were seen during Delta and Omicron BA.1 waves respectively. Eighty-four percent of RT-PCR-positive infections were asymptomatic. Children under 5-years had a lower incidence of infection than 18-49-year-olds. One prior SARS-CoV-2 infection reduced infection risk during the Delta wave only, with immunity from ≥2 prior infections required to reduce the risk of infection with early Omicron lineage viruses. In an African population with high levels of infection-driven immunity and low vaccine coverage, we find high attack rates during SARS-CoV-2 waves, with a high proportion of asymptomatic infections and young children remaining relatively protected from infection.

Single-molecule force stability of the SARS-CoV-2-ACE2 interface in variants-of-concern

Mutations in SARS-CoV-2 have shown effective evasion of population immunity and increased affinity to the cellular receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). However, in the dynamic environment of the respiratory tract, forces act on the binding partners, which raises the question of whether not only affinity but also force stability of the SARS-CoV-2-ACE2 interaction might be a selection factor for mutations. Using magnetic tweezers, we investigate the impact of amino acid substitutions in variants of concern (Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta) and on force-stability and bond kinetic of the receptor-binding domain-ACE2 interface at a single-molecule resolution. We find a higher affinity for all of the variants of concern (>fivefold) compared with the wild type. In contrast, Alpha is the only variant of concern that shows higher force stability (by 17%) compared with the wild type. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we rationalize the mechanistic molecular origins of this increase in force stability. Our study emphasizes the diversity of contributions to the transmissibility of variants and establishes force stability as one of the several factors for fitness. Understanding fitness advantages opens the possibility for the prediction of probable mutations, allowing a rapid adjustment of therapeutics, vaccines and intervention measures.

Characterizing the evolving SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in urban and rural Malawi between February 2021 and April 2022: A population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the changing SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and associated health and sociodemographic factors in Malawi between February 2021 and April 2022.

METHODS

In total, four 3-monthly serosurveys were conducted within a longitudinal population-based cohort in rural Karonga District and urban Lilongwe, testing for SARS-CoV-2 S1 immunoglobulin (Ig)G antibodies using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Population seroprevalence was estimated in all and unvaccinated participants. Bayesian mixed-effects logistic models estimated the odds of seropositivity in the first survey, and of seroconversion between surveys, adjusting for age, sex, occupation, location, and assay sensitivity/specificity.

RESULTS

Of the 2005 participants (Karonga, n = 1005; Lilongwe, n = 1000), 55.8% were female and median age was 22.7 years. Between Surveys (SVY) 1 and 4, population-weighted SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased from 26.3% to 89.2% and 46.4% to 93.9% in Karonga and Lilongwe, respectively. At SVY4, seroprevalence did not differ by COVID-19 vaccination status in adults, except for those aged 30+ years in Karonga (unvaccinated: 87.4%, 95% credible interval 79.3-93.0%; two doses: 98.1%, 94.8-99.5%). Location and age were associated with seroconversion risk. Individuals with hybrid immunity had higher SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and antibody titers, than those infected.

CONCLUSION

High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence combined with low morbidity and mortality indicate that universal vaccination is unnecessary at this stage of the pandemic, supporting change in national policy to target at-risk groups.

Spike Protein Mutation-Induced Changes in the Kinetic and Thermodynamic Behavior of Its Receptor Binding Domains Explain Their Higher Propensity to Attain Open States in SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern

Spike (S) protein opening in SARS-CoV-2 controls the accessibility of its receptor binding domains (RBDs) to host receptors and immune recognition. Along the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 to its variants of concern (VOC)-alpha, beta, gamma, delta, and omicron-their S proteins showed a higher propensity to attain open states. Deciphering how mutations in S protein can shape its conformational dynamics will contribute to the understanding of viral host tropism. Here using microsecond-scale multiple molecular dynamics simulations (MDS), we provide insights into the kinetic and thermodynamic contributions of these mutations to RBD opening pathways in S proteins of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs. Mutational effects were analyzed using atomistic (i) equilibrium MDS of closed and open states of S proteins and (ii) nonequilibrium MDS for closed-to-open transitions. In MDS of closed or open states, RBDs in S proteins of VOCs showed lower thermodynamic stability with higher kinetic fluctuations, compared to S proteins of ancestral SARS-CoV-2. For closed-to-open transitions in S proteins of VOCs, we observed apparently faster RBD opening with a 1.5-2-fold decrease in the thermodynamic free-energy barrier (ΔGclosed→open). Saturation mutagenesis studies highlighted S protein mutations that may control its conformational dynamics and presentation to host receptors.

Antibody escape, the risk of serotype formation, and rapid immune waning: Modeling the implications of SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion

As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has ushered in a volatile era of viral immune evasion rather than the much-heralded stability of "endemicity" or "herd immunity." At this point, an array of viral strains has rendered essentially all monoclonal antibody therapeutics obsolete and strongly undermined the impact of vaccinal immunity on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this work, we demonstrate that antibody escape resulting in evasion of pre-existing immunity is highly evolutionarily favored and likely to cause waves of short-term transmission. In the long-term, invading strains that induce weak cross-immunity against pre-existing strains may co-circulate with those pre-existing strains. This would result in the formation of serotypes that increase disease burden, complicate SARS-CoV-2 control, and raise the potential for increases in viral virulence. Less durable immunity does not drive positive selection as a trait, but such strains may transmit at high levels if they establish. Overall, our results draw attention to the importance of inter-strain cross-immunity as a driver of transmission trends and the importance of early immune evasion data to predict the trajectory of the pandemic.

Mild SARS-CoV-2 infection results in long-lasting microbiota instability

Viruses targeting mammalian cells can indirectly alter the gut microbiota, potentially compounding their phenotypic effects. Multiple studies have observed a disrupted gut microbiota in severe cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection that require hospitalization. Yet, despite demographic shifts in disease severity resulting in a large and continuing burden of non-hospitalized infections, we still know very little about the impact of mild SARS-CoV-2 infection on the gut microbiota in the outpatient setting. To address this knowledge gap, we longitudinally sampled 14 SARS-CoV-2-positive subjects who remained outpatient and 4 household controls. SARS-CoV-2 cases exhibited a significantly less stable gut microbiota relative to controls. These results were confirmed and extended in the K18-humanized angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 mouse model, which is susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. All of the tested SARS-CoV-2 variants significantly disrupted the mouse gut microbiota, including USA-WA1/2020 (the original variant detected in the USA), Delta, and Omicron. Surprisingly, despite the fact that the Omicron variant caused the least severe symptoms in mice, it destabilized the gut microbiota and led to a significant depletion in Akkermansia muciniphila. Furthermore, exposure of wild-type C57BL/6J mice to SARS-CoV-2 disrupted the gut microbiota in the absence of severe lung pathology. IMPORTANCE Taken together, our results demonstrate that even mild cases of SARS-CoV-2 can disrupt gut microbial ecology. Our findings in non-hospitalized individuals are consistent with studies of hospitalized patients, in that reproducible shifts in gut microbial taxonomic abundance in response to SARS-CoV-2 have been difficult to identify. Instead, we report a long-lasting instability in the gut microbiota. Surprisingly, our mouse experiments revealed an impact of the Omicron variant, despite producing the least severe symptoms in genetically susceptible mice, suggesting that despite the continued evolution of SARS-CoV-2, it has retained its ability to perturb the intestinal mucosa. These results will hopefully renew efforts to study the mechanisms through which Omicron and future SARS-CoV-2 variants alter gastrointestinal physiology, while also considering the potentially broad consequences of SARS-CoV-2-induced microbiota instability for host health and disease.

Salivary antibodies induced by BA.4/BA.5-convalescence or bivalent booster Immunoglobulin vaccination protect against novel SARS-COV-2 variants of concern

Currently, SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 subvariants BF.7 and BQ.1.1 are rapidly emerging worldwide. To evaluate the SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing capacity of sera and saliva from triple vaccinated individuals, either boosted with an adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine or recovered from BA.4/BA.5 infection, we analyzed the sensitivity of replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants BA.4/5, BQ.1.1 and BF.7 to neutralization. Analysis of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgGs and IgAs showed increased serum IgG titers in the vaccinated group, while the serum and salivary IgA levels were comparable. Similar and efficient serum neutralization against the ancestral strain of SARS-CoV-2 and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 was detected in both cohorts, but critically reduced for BQ.1.1 and BF.7. In contrast, salivary neutralization against BA.4/BA.5 was increased in the convalescent compared to the vaccinated group, while salivary neutralizing capacity against BQ.1.1 and BF.7 was comparable in these groups. Further, personalized protective effects studied in a human 3D respiratory model revealed the importance of salivary protection against different Omicron subvariants. IMPORTANCE In BA.4/BA.5-convalescent versus vaccinated groups, salivary neutralization capacity increased against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4/BA.5. In contrast, it neutralized novel Omicron subvariants BQ.1.1 and BF.7 similarly. Salivary protection against various Omicron subvariants was even more evident when tested in a personalized approach using highly differentiated respiratory human 3D models.

Behavioral factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission heterogeneity within a household cohort in Costa Rica

INTRODUCTION

Variability in household secondary attack rates and transmission risks factors of SARS-CoV-2 remain poorly understood.

METHODS

We conducted a household transmission study of SARS-CoV-2 in Costa Rica, with SARS-CoV-2 index cases selected from a larger prospective cohort study and their household contacts were enrolled. A total of 719 household contacts of 304 household index cases were enrolled from November 21, 2020, through July 31, 2021. Blood specimens were collected from contacts within 30-60 days of index case diagnosis; and serum was tested for presence of spike and nucleocapsid SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 prior infections among household contacts was defined based on the presence of both spike and nucleocapsid antibodies. We fitted a chain binomial model to the serologic data, to account for exogenous community infection risk and potential multi-generational transmissions within the household.

RESULTS

Overall seroprevalence was 53% (95% confidence interval (CI) 48-58%) among household contacts. The estimated household secondary attack rate is 34% (95% CI 5-75%). Mask wearing by the index case is associated with the household transmission risk reduction by 67% (adjusted odds ratio = 0.33 with 95% CI: 0.09-0.75) and not sharing bedroom with the index case is associated with the risk reduction of household transmission by 78% (adjusted odds ratio = 0.22 with 95% CI 0.10-0.41). The estimated distribution of household secondary attack rates is highly heterogeneous across index cases, with 30% of index cases being the source for 80% of secondary cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Modeling analysis suggests that behavioral factors are important drivers of the observed SARS-CoV-2 transmission heterogeneity within the household.

Effectiveness of Paxlovid, an Oral Antiviral Drug, Against the Omicron BA.5 Variant in Korea: Severe Progression and Death Between July and November 2022

BACKGROUND

Paxlovid is an oral antiviral drug that received emergency use authorization in South Korea for the treatment of patients with mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on January 14, 2022. Since the onset of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic, the virus has continued to evolve. The emergence of new variants has raised concerns about possible reductions in the effectiveness of vaccines and drugs. The effectiveness of Paxlovid in patients infected with the omicron variant and subvariants has not yet been determined. This study assessed the effectiveness of Paxlovid at reducing the risk of severe/critical illness or death and death in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 caused by omicron subvariant BA.5.

METHODS

In this nationwide retrospective cohort study, data on 8,902,726 patients were collected from four sources (the Drug Utilization Review database, COVID-19 Patient Information Management System, confirmed patient information, and basic epidemiological investigation data) between July 1 and November 30, 2022. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted, with adjustment for age, sex, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 immunity (vaccination), and comorbidities.

RESULTS

A total of 1,936,925 patients with COVID-19 were included in the analysis, including 420,996 patients treated with Paxlovid, and 1,515,959 patients not treated with Paxlovid. Paxlovid treatment in patients aged ≥ 60 years of age was associated with significantly reduced risk of severe/critical illness or death (46.0%), and death rate (32.5%), and its effectiveness was high, regardless of vaccination status.

CONCLUSION

Paxlovid is effective at reducing the risk of death due to COVID-19 in patients with omicron BA.5 infection, especially in older patients, regardless of vaccination status. This suggests that older patients with COVID-19-related symptoms should be administered Paxlovid, regardless of their vaccination status, to reduce severity and risk of death.

COVID-19 as a catalyst for vaccine manufacturing: A South African experience

COVID-19 highlighted inequitable vaccine distribution and the urgent need for vaccine manufacturing capacity on the African continent. This resulted in a burst of scientific engagement and international funding to augment capacity on the continent. However, short-term investment needs to be reinforced by a robust, strategic long-term plan to ensure sustainability.

SARS-CoV-2 omicron variants harbor spike protein mutations responsible for their attenuated fusogenic phenotype

Since the emergence of the Omicron variants at the end of 2021, they quickly became the dominant variants globally. The Omicron variants may be more easily transmitted compared to the earlier Wuhan and the other variants. In this study, we aimed to elucidate mechanisms of the altered infectivity associated with the Omicron variants. We systemically evaluated mutations located in the S2 sequence of spike and identified mutations that are responsible for altered viral fusion. We demonstrated that mutations near the S1/S2 cleavage site decrease S1/S2 cleavage, resulting in reduced fusogenicity. Mutations in the HR1 and other S2 sequences also affect cell-cell fusion. Based on nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) studies and in silico modeling, these mutations affect fusogenicity possibly at multiple steps of the viral fusion. Our findings reveal that the Omicron variants have accumulated mutations that contribute to reduced syncytial formation and hence an attenuated pathogenicity.

Trends in Cases, Hospitalizations, and Mortality Related to the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 Subvariants in South Africa

BACKGROUND

In this study, we compared admission incidence risk and the risk of mortality in the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave to previous waves.

METHODS

Data from South Africa's SARS-CoV-2 case linelist, national COVID-19 hospital surveillance system, and Electronic Vaccine Data System were linked and analyzed. Wave periods were defined when the country passed a weekly incidence of 30 cases/100 000 population. In-hospital case fatality ratios (CFRs) during the Delta, Omicron BA.1/BA.2, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 waves were compared using post-imputation random effect multivariable logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The CFR was 25.9% (N = 37 538 of 144 778), 10.9% (N = 6123 of 56 384), and 8.2% (N = 1212 of 14 879) in the Delta, Omicron BA.1/BA.2, and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 waves, respectively. After adjusting for age, sex, race, comorbidities, health sector, and province, compared with the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave, patients had higher risk of mortality in the Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-1.4) and Delta wave (aOR, 3.0; 95% CI: 2.8-3.2). Being partially vaccinated (aOR, 0.9; 95% CI: .9-.9), fully vaccinated (aOR, 0.6; 95% CI: .6-.7), and boosted (aOR, 0.4; 95% CI: .4-.5) and having prior laboratory-confirmed infection (aOR, 0.4; 95% CI: .3-.4) were associated with reduced risks of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, admission incidence risk and in-hospital mortality, which had increased progressively in South Africa's first 3 waves, decreased in the fourth Omicron BA.1/BA.2 wave and declined even further in the fifth Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave. Mortality risk was lower in those with natural infection and vaccination, declining further as the number of vaccine doses increased.

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused millions of deaths and substantial morbidity worldwide. Intense scientific effort to understand the biology of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in daunting numbers of genomic sequences. We witnessed evolutionary events that could mostly be inferred indirectly before, such as the emergence of variants with distinct phenotypes, for example transmissibility, severity and immune evasion. This Review explores the mechanisms that generate genetic variation in SARS-CoV-2, underlying the within-host and population-level processes that underpin these events. We examine the selective forces that likely drove the evolution of higher transmissibility and, in some cases, higher severity during the first year of the pandemic and the role of antigenic evolution during the second and third years, together with the implications of immune escape and reinfections, and the increasing evidence for and potential relevance of recombination. In order to understand how major lineages, such as variants of concern (VOCs), are generated, we contrast the evidence for the chronic infection model underlying the emergence of VOCs with the possibility of an animal reservoir playing a role in SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and conclude that the former is more likely. We evaluate uncertainties and outline scenarios for the possible future evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2.

Rapid, Sensitive, Label-Free Electrical Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Nasal Swab Samples

Rapid diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is key for the long-term control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) amid renewed threats of mutated SARS-CoV-2 around the world. Here, we report on an electrical label-free detection of SARS-CoV-2 in nasopharyngeal swab samples directly collected from outpatients or in saliva-relevant conditions by using a remote floating-gate field-effect transistor (RFGFET) with a 2-dimensional reduced graphene oxide (rGO) sensing membrane. RFGFET sensors demonstrate rapid detection (<5 min), a 90.6% accuracy from 8 nasal swab samples measured by 4 different devices for each sample, and a coefficient of variation (CV) < 6%. Also, RFGFET sensors display a limit of detection (LOD) of pseudo-SARS-CoV-2 that is 10 000-fold lower than enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, with a comparable LOD to that of reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for patient samples. To achieve this, comprehensive systematic studies were performed regarding interactions between SARS-CoV-2 and spike proteins, neutralizing antibodies, and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, as either a biomarker (detection target) or a sensing probe (receptor) functionalized on the rGO sensing membrane. Taken together, this work may have an immense effect on positioning FET bioelectronics for rapid SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics.

The effect of variation of individual infectiousness on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in households

Quantifying variation of individual infectiousness is critical to inform disease control. Previous studies reported substantial heterogeneity in transmission of many infectious diseases including SARS-CoV-2. However, those results are difficult to interpret since the number of contacts is rarely considered in such approaches. Here, we analyze data from 17 SARS-CoV-2 household transmission studies conducted in periods dominated by ancestral strains, in which the number of contacts was known. By fitting individual-based household transmission models to these data, accounting for number of contacts and baseline transmission probabilities, the pooled estimate suggests that the 20% most infectious cases have 3.1-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.2- to 4.2-fold) higher infectiousness than average cases, which is consistent with the observed heterogeneity in viral shedding. Household data can inform the estimation of transmission heterogeneity, which is important for epidemic management.

Resistance of Omicron subvariants BA.2.75.2, BA.4.6, and BQ.1.1 to neutralizing antibodies

Convergent evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5 lineages has led to the emergence of several new subvariants, including BA.2.75.2, BA.4.6. and BQ.1.1. The subvariant BQ.1.1 became predominant in many countries in December 2022. The subvariants carry an additional and often redundant set of mutations in the spike, likely responsible for increased transmissibility and immune evasion. Here, we established a viral amplification procedure to easily isolate Omicron strains. We examined their sensitivity to 6 therapeutic monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and to 72 sera from Pfizer BNT162b2-vaccinated individuals, with or without BA.1/BA.2 or BA.5 breakthrough infection. Ronapreve (Casirivimab and Imdevimab) and Evusheld (Cilgavimab and Tixagevimab) lose antiviral efficacy against BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1, whereas Xevudy (Sotrovimab) remaine weakly active. BQ.1.1 is also resistant to Bebtelovimab. Neutralizing titers in triply vaccinated individuals are low to undetectable against BQ.1.1 and BA.2.75.2, 4 months after boosting. A BA.1/BA.2 breakthrough infection increases these titers, which remains about 18-fold lower against BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1, than against BA.1. Reciprocally, a BA.5 breakthrough infection increases more efficiently neutralization against BA.5 and BQ.1.1 than against BA.2.75.2. Thus, the evolution trajectory of novel Omicron subvariants facilitates their spread in immunized populations and raises concerns about the efficacy of most available mAbs.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during resurgence driven by Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to compare the clinical severity of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 infection with BA.1 and earlier variant infections among laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in the Western Cape, South Africa, using timing of infection to infer the lineage/variant causing infection.

METHODS

We included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between May 01-May 21, 2022 (BA.4/BA.5 wave) and equivalent previous wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of (i) death and (ii) severe hospitalization/death (all within 21 days of diagnosis) using Cox regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, admission pressure, vaccination, and previous infection.

RESULTS

Among 3793 patients from the BA.4/BA.5 wave and 190,836 patients from previous waves, the risk of severe hospitalization/death was similar in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 waves (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93; 1.34). Both Omicron waves had a lower risk of severe outcomes than previous waves. Previous infection (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.24; 0.36) and vaccination (aHR 0.17; 95% CI 0.07; 0.40 for at least three doses vs no vaccine) were protective.

CONCLUSION

Disease severity was similar among diagnosed COVID-19 cases in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 periods in the context of growing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 due to previous infection and vaccination, both of which were strongly protective.

Safety and Efficacy of Paxlovid Against Omicron Variants of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Elderly Patients

INTRODUCTION

Elderly patients are the most affected and vulnerable to COVID-19 and effective therapeutic interventions are urgently required. We clarified the safety and efficacy of Paxlovid in the treatment of elderly patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

Patients aged over 60 years and with mild to moderate COVID-19 were admitted to the Zhongshan Hospital MinHang MeiLong Branch, Fudan University and received either Paxlovid treatment or only conventional therapy, between April 1 and May 31, 2022. Viral shedding time, duration of hospital stay, disease progression, and adverse events were analyzed, and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to detect the independent high-risk factors for COVID-19 progression in the patients.

RESULTS

A total of 163 (82 and 81 in the treatment and control groups, respectively) patients had a median age of 82 (71-89) years, and 89.0% had at least one concomitant disease. The duration of hospitalization reduced from 15 to 13 days, and viral shedding time reduced from 20 to 16.5 days after Paxlovid treatment. The differences of these two variables between the groups were significant (p < 0.01). Moreover, no serious adverse events or obvious changes in laboratory test results were observed in patients treated with Paxlovid. One patient (1.2%) treated with Paxlovid experienced rebound 56 days after negative measurement. Multivariate analysis showed that Paxlovid therapy, age, hemoglobin, and nucleic acid Ct values at admission were independent risk factors for hospitalization within 14 days, and the differences were significant (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The use of Paxlovid in elderly patients may promote recovery from COVID-19 and reduce the viral load without adverse events.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

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Spike recognition and neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants elicited after the third dose of mRNA vaccine

Several severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron subvariants have recently emerged, becoming the dominant circulating strains in many countries. These variants contain a large number of mutations in their spike glycoprotein, raising concerns about vaccine efficacy. In this study, we evaluate the ability of plasma from a cohort of individuals that received three doses of mRNA vaccine to recognize and neutralize these Omicron subvariant spikes. We observed that BA.4/5 and BQ.1.1 spikes are markedly less recognized and neutralized compared with the D614G and other Omicron subvariant spikes tested. Also, individuals who have been infected before or after vaccination present better humoral responses than SARS-CoV-2-naive vaccinated individuals, thus indicating that hybrid immunity generates better humoral responses against these subvariants.

Humoral Responses against BQ.1.1 Elicited after Breakthrough Infection and SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccination

The Omicron BQ.1.1 variant is now the major SARS-CoV-2 circulating strain in many countries. Because of the many mutations present in its Spike glycoprotein, this variant is resistant to humoral responses elicited by monovalent mRNA vaccines. With the goal to improve immune responses against Omicron subvariants, bivalent mRNA vaccines have recently been approved in several countries. In this study, we measure the capacity of plasma from vaccinated individuals, before and after a fourth dose of mono- or bivalent mRNA vaccine, to recognize and neutralize the ancestral (D614G) and the BQ.1.1 Spikes. Before and after the fourth dose, we observe a significantly better recognition and neutralization of the ancestral Spike. We also observe that fourth-dose vaccinated individuals who have been recently infected better recognize and neutralize the BQ.1.1 Spike, independently of the mRNA vaccine used, than donors who have never been infected or have an older infection. Our study supports that hybrid immunity, generated by vaccination and a recent infection, induces higher humoral responses than vaccination alone, independently of the mRNA vaccine used.

Rapidly shifting immunologic landscape and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Omicron era in South Africa

South Africa was among the first countries to detect the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. However, the size of its Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants (BA.1/2) wave remains poorly understood. We analyzed sequential serum samples collected through a prospective cohort study before, during, and after the Omicron BA.1/2 wave to infer infection rates and monitor changes in the immune histories of participants over time. We found that the Omicron BA.1/2 wave infected more than half of the cohort population, with reinfections and vaccine breakthroughs accounting for > 60% of all infections in both rural and urban sites. After the Omicron BA.1/2 wave, we found few (< 6%) remained naïve to SARS-CoV-2 and the population immunologic landscape is fragmented with diverse infection/immunization histories. Prior infection with the ancestral strain, Beta, and Delta variants provided 13%, 34%, and 51% protection against Omicron BA.1/2 infection, respectively. Hybrid immunity and repeated prior infections reduced the risks of Omicron BA.1/2 infection by 60% and 85% respectively. Our study sheds light on a rapidly shifting landscape of population immunity in the Omicron era and provides context for anticipating the long-term circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in populations no longer naïve to the virus.

Key lessons from the COVID-19 public health response in Australia

Australia avoided the worst effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, but still experienced many negative impacts. Reflecting on lessons from Australia's public health response, an Australian expert panel composed of relevant discipline experts identified the following key lessons: 1) movement restrictions were effective, but their implementation requires careful consideration of adverse impacts, 2) disease modelling was valuable, but its limitations should be acknowledged, 3) the absence of timely national data requires re-assessment of national surveillance structures, 4) the utility of advanced pathogen genomics and novel vaccine technology was clearly demonstrated, 5) decision-making that is evidence informed and consultative is essential to maintain trust, 6) major system weaknesses in the residential aged-care sector require fixing, 7) adequate infection prevention and control frameworks are critically important, 8) the interests and needs of young people should not be compromised, 9) epidemics should be recognised as a 'standing threat', 10) regional and global solidarity is important. It should be acknowledged that we were unable to capture all relevant nuances and context specific differences. However, the intent of this review of Australia's public health response is to critically reflect on key lessons learnt and to encourage constructive national discussion in countries across the Western Pacific Region.

Mild SARS-CoV-2 infection results in long-lasting microbiota instability

Viruses targeting mammalian cells can indirectly alter the gut microbiota, potentially compounding their phenotypic effects. Multiple studies have observed a disrupted gut microbiota in severe cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection that require hospitalization. Yet, despite demographic shifts in disease severity resulting in a large and continuing burden of non-hospitalized infections, we still know very little about the impact of mild SARS-CoV-2 infection on the gut microbiota in the outpatient setting. To address this knowledge gap, we longitudinally sampled 14 SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects who remained outpatient and 4 household controls. SARS-CoV-2 cases exhibited a significantly less stable gut microbiota relative to controls, as long as 154 days after their positive test. These results were confirmed and extended in the K18-hACE2 mouse model, which is susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. All of the tested SARS-CoV-2 variants significantly disrupted the mouse gut microbiota, including USA-WA1/2020 (the original variant detected in the United States), Delta, and Omicron. Surprisingly, despite the fact that the Omicron variant caused the least severe symptoms in mice, it destabilized the gut microbiota and led to a significant depletion in Akkermansia muciniphila . Furthermore, exposure of wild-type C57BL/6J mice to SARS-CoV-2 disrupted the gut microbiota in the absence of severe lung pathology.

IMPORTANCE

Taken together, our results demonstrate that even mild cases of SARS-CoV-2 can disrupt gut microbial ecology. Our findings in non-hospitalized individuals are consistent with studies of hospitalized patients, in that reproducible shifts in gut microbial taxonomic abundance in response to SARS-CoV-2 have been difficult to identify. Instead, we report a long-lasting instability in the gut microbiota. Surprisingly, our mouse experiments revealed an impact of the Omicron variant, despite producing the least severe symptoms in genetically susceptible mice, suggesting that despite the continued evolution of SARS-CoV-2 it has retained its ability to perturb the intestinal mucosa. These results will hopefully renew efforts to study the mechanisms through which Omicron and future SARS-CoV-2 variants alter gastrointestinal physiology, while also considering the potentially broad consequences of SARS-CoV-2-induced microbiota instability for host health and disease.

Epidemiology and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with anti-nucleocapsid seropositivity in Cape Town, South Africa

Background

In low- and middle-income countries where SARS-CoV-2 testing is limited, seroprevalence studies can characterise the scale and determinants of the pandemic, as well as elucidate protection conferred by prior exposure.

Methods

We conducted repeated cross-sectional serosurveys (July 2020 - November 2021) using residual plasma from routine convenient blood samples from patients with non-COVID-19 conditions from Cape Town, South Africa. SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid antibodies and linked clinical information were used to investigate: (1) seroprevalence over time and risk factors associated with seropositivity, (2) ecological comparison of seroprevalence between subdistricts, (3) case ascertainment rates, and (4) the relative protection against COVID-19 associated with seropositivity and vaccination statuses, to estimate variant disease severity.

Findings

Among the subset sampled, seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Cape Town increased from 39.2% in July 2020 to 67.8% in November 2021. Poorer communities had both higher seroprevalence and COVID-19 mortality. Only 10% of seropositive individuals had a recorded positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Antibody positivity before the start of the Omicron BA.1 wave (28 November 2021) was strongly protective for severe disease (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.15; 95%CI 0.05-0.46), with additional benefit in those who were also vaccinated (aOR 0.07, 95%CI 0.01-0.35).

Interpretation

The high population seroprevalence in Cape Town was attained at the cost of substantial COVID-19 mortality. At the individual level, seropositivity was highly protective against subsequent infections and severe COVID-19.

Funding

Wellcome Trust, National Health Laboratory Service, the Division of Intramural Research, NIAID, NIH (ADR) and Western Cape Government Health.

RETRACTED: Gradual emergence followed by exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Africa

The geographic and evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (BA.1), which was first detected mid-November 2021 in Southern Africa, remain unknown. We tested 13,097 COVID-19 patients sampled between mid-2021 to early 2022 from 22 African countries for BA.1 by real-time RT-PCR. By November-December 2021, BA.1 had replaced the Delta variant in all African sub-regions following a South-North gradient, with a peak Rt of 4.1. Polymerase chain reaction and near-full genome sequencing data revealed genetically diverse Omicron ancestors already existed across Africa by August 2021. Mutations, altering viral tropism, replication and immune escape, gradually accumulated in the spike gene. Omicron ancestors were therefore present in several African countries months before Omicron dominated transmission. These data also indicate that travel bans are ineffective in the face of undetected and widespread infection.

Resistance of Omicron subvariants BA.2.75.2, BA.4.6 and BQ.1.1 to neutralizing antibodies

Convergent evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5 lineages has led to the emergence of several new subvariants, including BA.2.75.2, BA.4.6. and BQ.1.1. The subvariants BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1 are expected to become predominant in many countries in November 2022. They carry an additional and often redundant set of mutations in the spike, likely responsible for increased transmissibility and immune evasion. Here, we established a viral amplification procedure to easily isolate Omicron strains. We examined their sensitivity to 6 therapeutic monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and to 72 sera from Pfizer BNT162b2-vaccinated individuals, with or without BA.1/BA.2 or BA.5 breakthrough infection. Ronapreve (Casirivimab and Imdevimab) and Evusheld (Cilgavimab and Tixagevimab) lost any antiviral efficacy against BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1, whereas Xevudy (Sotrovimab) remained weakly active. BQ.1.1 was also resistant to Bebtelovimab. Neutralizing titers in triply vaccinated individuals were low to undetectable against BQ.1.1 and BA.2.75.2, 4 months after boosting. A BA.1/BA.2 breakthrough infection increased these titers, which remained about 18-fold lower against BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1, than against BA.1. Reciprocally, a BA.5 breakthrough infection increased more efficiently neutralization against BA.5 and BQ.1.1 than against BA.2.75.2. Thus, the evolution trajectory of novel Omicron subvariants facilitated their spread in immunized populations and raises concerns about the efficacy of most currently available mAbs.

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa

Three lineages (BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3) of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant of concern predominantly drove South Africa's fourth Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) wave. We have now identified two new lineages, BA.4 and BA.5, responsible for a fifth wave of infections. The spike proteins of BA.4 and BA.5 are identical, and similar to BA.2 except for the addition of 69-70 deletion (present in the Alpha variant and the BA.1 lineage), L452R (present in the Delta variant), F486V and the wild-type amino acid at Q493. The two lineages differ only outside of the spike region. The 69-70 deletion in spike allows these lineages to be identified by the proxy marker of S-gene target failure, on the background of variants not possessing this feature. BA.4 and BA.5 have rapidly replaced BA.2, reaching more than 50% of sequenced cases in South Africa by the first week of April 2022. Using a multinomial logistic regression model, we estimated growth advantages for BA.4 and BA.5 of 0.08 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.08-0.09) and 0.10 (95% CI: 0.09-0.11) per day, respectively, over BA.2 in South Africa. The continued discovery of genetically diverse Omicron lineages points to the hypothesis that a discrete reservoir, such as human chronic infections and/or animal hosts, is potentially contributing to further evolution and dispersal of the virus.

Rapidly shifting immunologic landscape and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Omicron era in South Africa

South Africa was among the first countries to detect the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. Propelled by increased transmissibility and immune escape properties, Omicron displaced other globally circulating variants within 3 months of its emergence. Due to limited testing, Omicron's attenuated clinical severity, and an increased risk of reinfection, the size of the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants (BA.1/2) wave remains poorly understood in South Africa and in many other countries. Using South African data from urban and rural cohorts closely monitored since the beginning of the pandemic, we analyzed sequential serum samples collected before, during, and after the Omicron BA.1/2 wave to infer infection rates and monitor changes in the immune histories of participants over time. Omicron BA.1/2 infection attack rates reached 65% (95% CI, 60% - 69%) in the rural cohort and 58% (95% CI, 61% - 74%) in the urban cohort, with repeat infections and vaccine breakthroughs accounting for >60% of all infections at both sites. Combined with previously collected data on pre-Omicron variant infections within the same cohorts, we identified 14 distinct categories of SARS-CoV-2 antigen exposure histories in the aftermath of the Omicron BA.1/2 wave, indicating a particularly fragmented immunologic landscape. Few individuals (<6%) remained naïve to SARS-CoV-2 and no exposure history category represented over 25% of the population at either cohort site. Further, cohort participants were more than twice as likely to get infected during the Omicron BA.1/2 wave, compared to the Delta wave. Prior infection with the ancestral strain (with D614G mutation), Beta, and Delta variants provided 13% (95% CI, -21% - 37%), 34% (95% CI, 17% - 48%), and 51% (95% CI, 39% - 60%) protection against Omicron BA.1/2 infection, respectively. Hybrid immunity (prior infection and vaccination) and repeated prior infections (without vaccination) reduced the risks of Omicron BA.1/2 infection by 60% (95% CI, 42% - 72%) and 85% (95% CI, 76% - 92%) respectively. Reinfections and vaccine breakthroughs had 41% (95% CI, 26% - 53%) lower risk of onward transmission than primary infections. Our study sheds light on a rapidly shifting landscape of population immunity, along with the changing characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, and how these factors interact to shape the success of emerging variants. Our findings are especially relevant to populations similar to South Africa with low SARS-CoV-2 vaccine coverage and a dominant contribution of immunity from prior infection. Looking forward, the study provides context for anticipating the long-term circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in populations no longer naïve to the virus.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during resurgence driven by Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

Objective

We aimed to compare clinical severity of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 infection with BA.1 and earlier variant infections among laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in the Western Cape, South Africa, using timing of infection to infer the lineage/variant causing infection.

Methods

We included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between 1-21 May 2022 (BA.4/BA.5 wave) and equivalent prior wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of (i) death and (ii) severe hospitalization/death (all within 21 days of diagnosis) using Cox regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, admission pressure, vaccination and prior infection.

Results

Among 3,793 patients from the BA.4/BA.5 wave and 190,836 patients from previous waves the risk of severe hospitalization/death was similar in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 waves (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93; 1.34). Both Omicron waves had lower risk of severe outcomes than previous waves. Prior infection (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.24; 0.36) and vaccination (aHR 0.17; 95% CI 0.07; 0.40 for boosted vs. no vaccine) were protective.

Conclusion

Disease severity was similar amongst diagnosed COVID-19 cases in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 periods in the context of growing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 due to prior infection and vaccination, both of which were strongly protective.