Use of genetic variation to separate the effects of early and later life adiposity on disease risk: mendelian randomisation study

Association between genetically proxied PPARG activation and psoriasis vulgaris: a Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Psoriasis is a common autoimmune disease in clinical practice, and previous observational studies have suggested that PPARG agonists such as Pioglitazone may be potential therapeutic agents. However, due to interference from various confounding factors, different observational studies have not reached a unified conclusion. We aim to evaluate the potential use of PPARG agonists for treating psoriasis from a new perspective through drug-targeted Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study includes data on 8,876 individuals for acute myocardial infarction from GWAS, and LDL cholesterol data from 343,621 Europeans. FinnGen contributed psoriasis vulgaris data for 403,972 individuals. The DrugBank10 databases function to identify genes encoding protein products targeted by active constituents of lipid-modifying targets. A two-sample MR analysis and summary-data-based MR (SMR) analysis estimated the associations between expressions of drug target genes and symptoms of psoriasis vulgaris. A multivariable MR study was further conducted to examine if the observed association was direct association.

RESULTS

SMR analysis revealed that enhanced PPARG gene expression in the blood (equivalent to a one standard deviation increase) was a protective factor for psoriasis vulgaris (beta = -0.2017, se = 0.0723, p = 0.0053). Besides, there exists an MR association between LDL mediated by PPARG and psoriasis vulgaris outcomes (beta = -3.9169, se = 0.5676, p = 5.17E-12). These results indicate that PPARG is a therapeutic target for psoriasis, suggesting that psoriasis may be a potential indication for PPARG agonists.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms that therapeutic activation of PPARG helps suppress the development of psoriasis. Psoriasis may be a new indication for PPARG agonists, such as Pioglitazone. In the future, new anti-psoriatic drugs could be developed targeting PPARG.

A proteomics approach to study mouse long bones: examining baseline differences and mechanical loading-induced bone formation in young-adult and old mice

With aging, bone mass declines and the anabolic effects of skeletal loading diminish. While much research has focused on gene transcription, how bone ages and loses its mechanoresponsiveness at the protein level remains unclear. We developed a novel proteomics approach and performed a paired mass spectrometry and RNA-seq analysis on tibias from young-adult (5-month) and old (22-month) mice. We report the first correlation estimate between the bone proteome and transcriptome (Spearman ρ = 0.40), which is in line with other tissues but indicates that a relatively low amount of variation in protein levels is explained by the variation in transcript levels. Of 71 shared targets that differed with age, eight were associated with bone mineral density in previous GWAS, including understudied targets Asrgl1 and Timp2. We used complementary RNA in situ hybridization to confirm that Asrgl1 and Timp2 had reduced expression in osteoblasts/osteocytes in old bones. We also found evidence for reduced TGF-beta signaling with aging, in particular Tgfb2. Next, we defined proteomic changes following mechanical loading. At the protein level, bone differed more with age than with loading, and aged bone had fewer loading-induced changes. Overall, our findings underscore the need for complementary protein-level assays in skeletal biology research.

Estimating Time-Varying Exposure Effects Through Continuous-Time Modelling in Mendelian Randomization

Mendelian randomization is an instrumental variable method that utilizes genetic information to investigate the causal effect of a modifiable exposure on an outcome. In most cases, the exposure changes over time. Understanding the time-varying causal effect of the exposure can yield detailed insights into mechanistic effects and the potential impact of public health interventions. Recently, a growing number of Mendelian randomization studies have attempted to explore time-varying causal effects. However, the proposed approaches oversimplify temporal information and rely on overly restrictive structural assumptions, limiting their reliability in addressing time-varying causal problems. This article considers a novel approach to estimate time-varying effects through continuous-time modelling by combining functional principal component analysis and weak-instrument-robust techniques. Our method effectively utilizes available data without making strong structural assumptions and can be applied in general settings where the exposure measurements occur at different timepoints for different individuals. We demonstrate through simulations that our proposed method performs well in estimating time-varying effects and provides reliable inference when the time-varying effect form is correctly specified. The method could theoretically be used to estimate arbitrarily complex time-varying effects. However, there is a trade-off between model complexity and instrument strength. Estimating complex time-varying effects requires instruments that are unrealistically strong. We illustrate the application of this method in a case study examining the time-varying effects of systolic blood pressure on urea levels.

Unravel the distinct effects of adiposity at different life stages on COVID-19 susceptibility and severity: A life-course Mendelian randomization study

Childhood obesity is widely recognized as a risk factor for numerous health conditions, particularly cardiovascular disease. However, it remains unclear whether childhood adiposity directly affects the risk of COVID-19 in later life. We aimed to investigate the causal effects of early life adiposity on COVID-19 susceptibility and severity. We used genetic instruments from large-scale genome-wide association studies to examine the relationships between birth weight, childhood and adulthood adiposity indicators (including body mass index [BMI], obesity, and body size), and COVID-19 outcomes. Univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were used to obtain the causal estimates. Univariable MR analyses found that childhood BMI and obesity were positively associated with COVID-19 risk and severity in adulthood, however, the significant associations were attenuated to null after further adjusting for adulthood adiposity indicators in multivariable MR analyses. In contrast, our analysis revealed strong evidence of a genetically predicted effect of childhood obesity on COVID-19 hospitalization (OR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.01-1.15, p = 2.12E-2), which remained robust even after adjusting for adulthood obesity and potential lifestyle confounders. Our results highlight the importance of promoting healthy weight management throughout life to reduce the risk of COVID-19.

Genetic associations with neural reward responsivity to food cues in children

Objective

To test associations of candidate obesity-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and obesity polygenic risk scores (PRS) with neural reward reactivity to food cues.

Methods

After consuming a pre-load meal, 9-12-year-old children completed a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) paradigm with exposure to food and non-food commercials. Genetic exposures included FTO rs9939609, MC4R rs571312, and a pediatric-specific obesity PRS. A targeted region-of-interest (ROI) analysis for 7 bilateral reward regions and a whole-brain analysis were conducted. Independent associations between each genetic factor and reward responsivity to food cues in each ROI were evaluated using linear models.

Results

Analyses included 151 children (M = 10.9 years). Each FTO rs9939609 obesity risk allele was related to a higher food-cue-related response in the right lateral hypothalamus after controlling for covariates including the current BMI Z-score (p < 0.01), however, the association did not remain significant after applying the multiple testing correction. MC4R rs571312 and the PRS were not related to heightened food-cue-related reward responsivity in any examined regions. The whole-brain analysis did not identify additional regions of food-cue-related response related to the examined genetic factors.

Conclusion

Children genetically at risk for obesity, as indicated by the FTO genotype, may be predisposed to higher food-cue-related reward responsivity in the lateral hypothalamus in the sated state, which, in turn, could contribute to overconsumption.

Clinical trial registration

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03766191, identifier NCT03766191.

Life-course obesity and heart failure: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study

Heart failure is a multifaceted clinical syndrome, with obesity identified as a significant modifiable risk factor. This study employed a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) design, incorporating obesity data across life stages, to elucidate the causal link between obesity and heart failure. Data on heart failure from the 2023 Finngen database and genetic predictors of obesity from the IEU OpenGWAS project were analyzed using the IVW method, MR-Egger regression, weighted median, simple mode, weighted mode, and scatter plots. Heterogeneity was assessed with Cochran's Q test, and horizontal pleiotropy with MR-Egger intercept test. Sensitivity to single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was tested via leave-one-out analysis, and funnel plots were utilized for visual inspection of horizontal pleiotropy. Statistical powers were also calculated. The MR analysis findings indicate a significant relationship between birth weight and the likelihood of developing heart failure (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.134, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.033-1.245, P = 0.008). In addition, a heightened childhood BMI was found to be a significant predictor of heart failure risk (OR 1.307, 95% CI 1.144-1.494, P = 8.51E-05), as was childhood obesity (OR 1.123, 95% CI 1.074-1.173, P = 2.37E-07). Furthermore, adult BMI sex-combined exhibited a strong correlation with the risk of heart failure (OR 2.365, 95% CI 2.128-2.629, P = 1.91E-57). Sensitivity analyses provided further support for the reliability of these results, with no significant indication of horizontal pleiotropy observed. This study shows that obesity, including childhood obesity, is linked to a higher risk of heart failure. These findings highlight the urgent need for early weight management interventions in public health and clinical settings to reduce heart failure rates.

Genome-wide association studies of thyroid-related hormones, dysfunction, and autoimmunity among 85,421 Chinese pregnancies

Maintaining normal thyroid function is crucial in pregnancy, yet thyroid dysfunction and the presence of thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb) affect 0.5% to 18% of pregnant women. Here, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of eight thyroid traits, including two thyroid-related hormones, four thyroid dysfunctions, and two thyroid autoimmunity measurements among 85,421 Chinese pregnant women to investigate the genetic basis of thyroid function during pregnancy. Our study identified 176 genetic loci, including 125 previously unknown genome-wide associations. Joint epidemiological and Mendelian randomization analyses revealed significant associations between the gestational thyroid phenotypes and gestational complications, birth outcomes, and later-age health outcomes. Specifically, genetically elevated thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels during pregnancy correlated with lower glycemic levels, reduced blood pressure, and longer gestational duration. Additionally, TPOAb and thyroid functions during pregnancy share genetic correlations with later-age thyroid and cardiac disorders. These findings provide insights into the genetic determinants of thyroid traits during pregnancy, which may lead to new therapeutics, early pre-diagnosis and preventive strategies starting from early adulthood.

Evaluating the distinct effects of body mass index at childhood and adulthood on adult major psychiatric disorders

Children with high body mass index (BMI) are at heightened risk of developing health issues in adulthood, yet the causality between childhood BMI and adult psychiatric disorders remains unclear. Using a life course Mendelian randomization (MR) framework, we investigated the causal effects of childhood and adulthood BMI on adult psychiatric disorders, including Alzheimer's disease, anxiety, major depressive disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), and schizophrenia, using data from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium and FinnGen study. Childhood BMI was significantly associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia, while adulthood BMI was associated with a decreased risk of OCD and schizophrenia. Multivariable MR analyses indicated a direct causal effect of childhood BMI on schizophrenia, independent of adulthood BMI and lifestyle factors. No evidence of causal associations was found between childhood BMI and other psychiatric outcomes. The sensitivity analyses yielded broadly consistent findings. These findings highlight the critical importance of early-life interventions to mitigate the long-term consequences of childhood adiposity.

Hypothyroidism and dermato/polymyositis: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study

Objective

Observational studies have revealed a higher probability of hypothyroidism in patients with dermatomyositis (DM) or polymyositis (PM), but there is no consensus on whether hypothyroidism causally influences DM or PM. In the present study, we assessed the causal association between hypothyroidism and the risk of dermatomyositis or polymyositis using two-sample Mendelian randomization (TSMR).

Methods

The genome-wide association data of hypothyroidism and dermatomyositis/polymyositis were obtained from the IEU Open GWAS project. Then, TSMR was used to determine whether hypothyroidism is causally associated with DM or PM. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) significantly associated with hypothyroidism were identified and used as instrumental variables (IVs), and the causal relationship between hypothyroidism and DM/PM was examined using TSMR. MR pleiotropy and Cochran's Q test were used to confirm the heterogeneity and pleiotropy of identified IVs, then four different models, including the inverse variance weighted model (IVW), MR-Egger, weighted median and weighted model were applied in this MR analysis.

Results

Sixty-eight SNPs for DM and 68 SNPs for PM were selected as the IVs (P<5×10-8; linkage disequilibrium R2 <0.001) to assess the causal association between hypothyroidism and DM/PM selected from GWASs on hypothyroidism. The results revealed a positive causal effect of hypothyroidism on both DM and PM (DM: OR 2.563, 95% CI [1.348, 4.874], P = 0.00156; PM: OR1.709, 95% CI [1.157, 2.525], P =0.007). Moreover, there was no heterogeneity or pleiotropy in the results.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the MR analysis results provided strong evidence to indicate that hypothyroidism might be causally associated with DM and PM. These findings may have important implications for the pathogenesis and possible future therapies of DM/PM.

Genetic predisposition to high BMI increases risk of early life respiratory infections and episodes of severe wheeze and asthma

BACKGROUND

High body mass index (BMI) is an established risk factor for asthma, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To increase understanding of the BMI-asthma relationship by studying the association between genetic predisposition to higher BMI and asthma, infections and other asthma traits during childhood.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the two ongoing Copenhagen Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood (COPSAC) mother-child cohorts. Polygenic risk scores for adult BMI were calculated for each child. Replication was done in the large-scale register-based Integrative Psychiatric Research (iPSYCH) cohort using data on hospitalisation for asthma and infections.

RESULTS

In the COPSAC cohorts (n=974), the adult BMI polygenic risk score was significantly associated with lower respiratory tract infections (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.20, 95% CI 1.08-1.33, false discovery rate p-value (pFDR)=0.005) at age 0-3 years and episodes of severe wheeze (IRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.06-1.60, pFDR=0.04) at age 0-6 years. Lower respiratory tract infections partly mediated the association between the adult BMI polygenic risk score and severe wheeze (proportion mediated: 0.59, 95% CI 0.28-2.24, p-value associated with the average causal mediation effect (pACME)=2e-16). In contrast, these associations were not mediated through the child's current BMI and the polygenic risk score was not associated with an asthma diagnosis or reduced lung function up to age 18 years. The associations were replicated in iPSYCH (n=114 283), where the adult BMI polygenic risk score significantly increased the risk of hospitalisations for lower respiratory tract infections and wheeze or asthma throughout childhood to age 18 years.

CONCLUSION

Children with genetic predisposition to higher BMI had increased risk of lower respiratory tract infections and severe wheeze, independent of the child's current BMI. These results shed further light on the complex relationship between body mass BMI and asthma.

Genetic associations with consumption of palatable foods in the absence of hunger in response to food cues in children

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to evaluate obesity-related genetic factors in relation to excess consumption and assess if food cues modify associations.

METHODS

Children (9-12 years) completed a randomized crossover experiment. During two visits, children ate a preload and then snacks ad libitum while watching television, embedded with food or non-food advertisements to assess eating in the absence of hunger (EAH). Primary exposures were obesity-associated genotypes, FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs571312, and a paediatric-specific polygenic risk score (PRS). Outcomes included consumption of all snacks (total EAH) and gummy candy only (gummy candy EAH). Linear mixed-effects models tested whether genetic exposures related to EAH outcomes. We tested for effect modification by food cues using multiplicative interaction terms.

RESULTS

Among 177 children, each FTO risk allele was associated with a 30% increase in gummy candy EAH (p = 0.025) in adjusted models. Food cue exposure exacerbated associations between the FTO variant with gummy candy EAH (p = 0.046). No statistically significant associations were found between MC4R and EAH.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest children with the FTO rs9939609 risk allele may be predisposed to excess consumption of candy and that this association may be exacerbated by food cues.

Genetic associations of birthweight, childhood, and adult BMI with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a Mendelian randomization

PURPOSE

The causal relationship between life course adiposity with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is ambiguous. We aimed to investigate whether there is an independent genetic causal relationship between body size at various life course and MASLD.

METHODS

We performed univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate the causal effect of body size at different life stages on MASLD (i.e., defined by the clinical comprehensive diagnosis from the electronic health record [HER] codes [ICD9/ICD10] or diagnostic phrases), including birthweight, childhood body mass index (BMI), adult BMI, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), body fat percentage (BFP).

RESULTS

In univariate analyses, higher genetically predicted lower birthweight (ORIVW = 0.61, 95%CI, 0.52 to 0.74), Childhood BMI ( ORIVW = 1.37, 95%CI, 1.12 to 1.64), and adult BMI (ORIVW = 1.41, 95%CI, 1.27 to 1.57) was significantly associated with subsequent risk of MASLD after Bonferroni correction. The MVMR analysis demonstrated compelling proof that birthweight and adult BMI had a direct causal relationship with MASLD. However, after adjusting for birthweight and adult BMI, the direct causal relationship between childhood BMI and MASLD disappeared.

CONCLUSION

For the first time, this MR elucidated new evidence for the effect of life course adiposity on MASLD risk, providing lower birthweight and duration of obesity are independent risk factors for MASLD. Our findings indicated that weight management during distinct time periods plays a significant role in the prevention and treatment of MASLD.

The role of body image dissatisfaction in the relationship between body size and disordered eating and self-harm: complimentary Mendelian randomization and mediation analyses

Disordered eating and self-harm commonly co-occur in young people suggesting potential for shared underlying causes. Body image dissatisfaction (BID) has been recognised as a psychological correlate of body size, associated with both disordered eating and self-harm. However, the investigation into etiological pathways early in the lifecourse to provide detail on how body size and BID may foster disordered eating and self-harm remains largely unexplored. Employing data from two large population-based cohorts, the UK Biobank and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC), we conducted bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) to determine the causal direction of effect between genetically predicted prepubertal body size and two measures of BID indicating (i) desire to be smaller, and (ii) desire to be larger. We then used multivariable regression followed by counterfactual mediation analyses. Bidirectional MR indicated robust evidence that increased genetically predicted prepubertal body size increased desire to be smaller and decreased desire to be larger. Evidence for the reverse causal direction was negligible. These findings remained very similar across sensitivity analyses. In females and males, multivariable regression analyses demonstrated that being overweight increased the risk of disordered eating (risk ratio (RR), 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19, 1.01 to 1.40 and 1.98, 1.28 to 3.05, respectively) and self-harm (RR, 95% CI: 1.35, 1.04 to 1.77 and 1.55, 0.86 to 2.81, respectively), while being underweight was protective against disordered eating (RR, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.40 to 0.81 and 0.81, 0.38 to 1.73, respectively). There was weak evidence of an increase in the risk of self-harm among underweight individuals. Mediation analyses indicated that the relationship between being overweight and subsequent disordered eating was largely mediated by the desire to be smaller. Our research carries important public health implications, suggesting distinct risk profiles for self-harm and disordered eating in relation to weight and body image. In addition, a better understanding of genetically predicted prepubertal BID may be valuable in the prevention and treatment of disordered eating and self-harm in adolescence.

Effects of genetically proxied statins on diabetic nephropathy and retinopathy: a Mendelian randomization study

There is no reliable causal evidence for the effect of statins on diabetic nephropathy (DN) and diabetic retinopathy (DR), and the results of previous observational studies are contradictory. Genetic variants linked to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) from a UK biobank genome-wide association study and located within a 100kb window around HMGCR were used to proxy statins, comparing with PCSK9 inhibitors (control). DN and DR genome-wide association study summary statistics were obtained from the FinnGen study. Secondary MR analyses and NHANES cross-sectional data were used for validation. Drug-target Mendelian randomization (MR) was applied to investigate the association between the genetically proxied inhibition of HMGCR and PCSK9 with DN and DR, p < 0.0125 was considered significant after Bonferroni Correction. To triangulate the findings, genetic variants of whole blood-derived targets gene expression (cis-eQTL) and plasma-derived protein (cis-pQTL) levels were used to perform secondary MR analyses and data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used for cross-sectional analysis. Genetically proxied inhibition of HMGCR was associated with higher risks of DN and DR (DN: OR = 1.79, p = 0.01; DR: OR = 1.41, p = 0.004), while no such association was found for PCSK9. Secondary MR analyses confirmed these associations. Cross-sectional analysis revealed a positive link between statin use and DR incidence (OR = 1.26, p = 0.03) and a significant negative association with glomerular filtration rate (Beta = - 1.9, p = 0.03). This study provides genetic evidence that genetically proxied inhibition of HMGCR is associated with increased risks of DN/DR, and this effect may not be attributed to their LDL-C-lowering properties. For patients with diabetic dyslipidemia, PCSK9 inhibitors may be a preferable alternative.

Global burden and attributable risk factors of breast cancer in young women: historical trends from 1990 to 2019 and forecasts to 2030 by sociodemographic index regions and countries

Background

Breast cancer in young women (BCY) is much less common but has significant health sequelae and societal costs. We aimed to evaluate the global and regional burden of breast cancer in women aged 15-39 years from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed data on breast cancer from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) Data Resources. The age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardised disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used to assess the disease burden of BCY. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was used to forecast disease burden from 2020 to 2030.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, significant increases in ASIR were found for BCY (EAPC = 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.5 to 0.68), whereas decreases in ASMR (EAPC = -0.41, 95% CI = -0.53 to -0.3) and ASDR (EAPC = -0.35, 95% CI = -0.46 to -0.24). Across countries with varying sociodemographic indexes (SDI), all regions showed an upward trend in BCY morbidity, except for countries with a high SDI. While mortality and DALYs rates have decreased in countries with high, high-middle, and middle SDI, they have increased in countries with low-middle and low SDI. Countries with lower SDIs are projected to bear the greatest burden of BCY over the next decade, including both low and low-middle categories. Alcohol use was the main risk factor attributed to BCY deaths in most countries, while exposure to second hand smoke was the predominant risk factor for BCY deaths in middle and low-middle SDI countries.

Conclusions

The burden of breast cancer in young women is on the rise worldwide, and there are significant regional differences. Countries with a low-middle or low SDI face even more challenges, as they experienced a more significant and increasing BCY burden than countries with higher SDIs.

Separating the effects of early and later life body mass index on liver diseases: A Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The independent effects of childhood and adult body mass index (BMI) on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are lacking assessment. We aimed to separate the effects of childhood and adult BMI on NAFLD, cirrhosis, and HCC.

METHODS

Genetic variants associated with childhood and adult BMI were selected as instrumental variables. Two-sample univariable and multivariable MR estimated the total and direct effect of childhood and adult BMI on NAFLD, cirrhosis, and HCC.

RESULTS

Genetically predicted each 1-SD increased childhood BMI (OR = 1.30, 95 % CI = 1.12 to 1.51, P = 0.001) and adult BMI (OR = 1.57 95 % CI = 1.33 to 1.84, P = 5.49E-08) was associated with an increased risk of NAFLD. The association between childhood BMI (OR = 0.97, 95 % CI = 0.77 to 1.24, P = 0.825) and NAFLD did not remain significant after adjusting for adult BMI (OR = 1.64, 95 % CI = 1.23 to 2.20, P = 0.001). The direct effects of childhood and adult BMI on cirrhosis and HCC were insignificant after considering their relationship.

CONCLUSION

Maintaining a normal BMI in adulthood significantly reduces the adverse effect of a higher childhood BMI on NAFLD. Further investigation is required to clarify the presence of this effect in cirrhosis and HCC.

Type 2 diabetes mediates the causal relationship between obesity and osteomyelitis: A Mendelian randomization study

Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was used to determine the causal relationship between Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and osteomyelitis (OM). We performed MR analysis using pooled data from different large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Instrumental variables were selected based on genome-wide significance, instrumental strength was assessed using F-values, and thresholds for the number of exposed phenotypes were further adjusted by Bonferroni correction. univariable and multivariable MR analyses were performed to assess causal effects and proportions mediated by T2D. IVW (inverse variance weighting) showed a significant genetic effect of osteomyelitis on the following: After correction by Bonferroni, univariable analyses showed that childhood body mass index (BMI) was not significantly associated with genetic susceptibility to OM [odds ratio (OR), 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02, 1.55; P = .030], not significantly associated with adulthood BMI (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.02, 1.61; P = .034), significantly associated with waist circumference (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.51, 2.24; P < .001), and significantly associated with hip circumference (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.31, 1.76; P < .001). Meanwhile, multivariable analyses showed no significant effect of childhood BMI on OM (OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.84, 1.62; P = .370), no significant effect of adulthood BMI on OM (OR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.21, 0.84; P = .015), a significant association between waist circumference and OM (OR, 4.30; 95% CI, 1.89, 9.82; P = .001), T2D mediated 10% (95% CI, 0.02, 0.14), and no significant association between hip circumference and OM (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.54, 1.90; P = .968). Our study provides evidence for a genetically predicted causal relationship among obesity, T2D, and OM. We demonstrate that increased waist circumference is positively associated with an increased risk of OM and that T2D mediates this relationship. Clinicians should be more cautious in the perioperative management of osteomyelitis surgery in obese patients with T2D. In addition, waist circumference may be a more important criterion to emphasize and strictly control than other measures of obesity.

Mammographic density mediates the protective effect of early-life body size on breast cancer risk

The unexplained protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer risk may be mediated via mammographic density (MD). Here, we investigate a complex relationship between adiposity in childhood and adulthood, puberty onset, MD phenotypes (dense area (DA), non-dense area (NDA), percent density (PD)), and their effects on breast cancer. We use Mendelian randomization (MR) and multivariable MR to estimate the total and direct effects of adiposity and age at menarche on MD phenotypes. Childhood adiposity has a decreasing effect on DA, while adulthood adiposity increases NDA. Later menarche increases DA/PD, but when accounting for childhood adiposity, this effect is attenuated. Next, we examine the effect of MD on breast cancer risk. DA/PD have a risk-increasing effect on breast cancer across all subtypes. The MD SNPs estimates are heterogeneous, and additional analyses suggest that different mechanisms may be linking MD and breast cancer. Finally, we evaluate the role of MD in the protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer. Mediation MR analysis shows that 56% (95% CIs [32%-79%]) of this effect is mediated via DA. Our finding suggests that higher childhood adiposity decreases mammographic DA, subsequently reducing breast cancer risk. Understanding this mechanism is important for identifying potential intervention targets.

Methodological approaches, challenges, and opportunities in the application of Mendelian randomisation to lifecourse epidemiology: A systematic literature review

Diseases diagnosed in adulthood may have antecedents throughout (including prenatal) life. Gaining a better understanding of how exposures at different stages in the lifecourse influence health outcomes is key to elucidating the potential benefits of disease prevention strategies. Mendelian randomisation (MR) is increasingly used to estimate causal effects of exposures across the lifecourse on later life outcomes. This systematic literature review explores MR methods used to perform lifecourse investigations and reviews previous work that has utilised MR to elucidate the effects of factors acting at different stages of the lifecourse. We conducted searches in PubMed, Embase, Medline and MedRXiv databases. Thirteen methodological studies were identified. Four studies focused on the impact of time-varying exposures in the interpretation of "standard" MR techniques, five presented methods for repeat measures of the same exposure, and four described methodological approaches to handling multigenerational exposures. A further 127 studies presented the results of an applied research question. Over half of these estimated effects in a single generation and were largely confined to the exploration of questions regarding body composition. The remaining mostly estimated maternal effects. There is a growing body of research focused on the development and application of MR methods to address lifecourse research questions. The underlying assumptions require careful consideration and the interpretation of results rely on select conditions. Whilst we do not advocate for a particular strategy, we encourage practitioners to make informed decisions on how to approach a research question in this field with a solid understanding of the limitations present and how these may be affected by the research question, modelling approach, instrument selection, and data availability.

Child-to-adult body size change and risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Childhood overweight increases the risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in adulthood. However, the impact of childhood leanness on adult obesity and disease risk has been overlooked. We examined the independent and combined influences of child and adult body size on the risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

Data from the UK Biobank on 364,695 individuals of European ancestry and free of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease were divided into nine categories based on their self-reported body size at age 10 and measured BMI in adulthood. After a median follow-up of 12.8 years, 33,460 individuals had developed type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease. We used Cox regression models to assess the associations of body size categories with disease incidence.

RESULTS

Individuals with low body size in childhood and high body size in adulthood had the highest risk of type 2 diabetes (HR 4.73; 95% CI 4.50, 4.99), compared to those with average body size in both childhood and adulthood. This was significantly higher than the risk in those with high body size in both childhood and adulthood (HR 4.05; 95% CI 3.84, 4.26). By contrast, cardiovascular disease risk was determined by adult body size, irrespective of childhood body size.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Low body size in childhood exacerbates the risk of type 2 diabetes associated with adult obesity but not the risk of cardiovascular disease. Thus, promoting healthy weight management from childhood to adulthood, among lean children, is crucial.

Assessing causal links between age at menarche and adolescent mental health: a Mendelian randomisation study

BACKGROUND

The timing of puberty may have an important impact on adolescent mental health. In particular, earlier age at menarche has been associated with elevated rates of depression in adolescents. Previous research suggests that this relationship may be causal, but replication and an investigation of whether this effect extends to other mental health domains is warranted.

METHODS

In this Registered Report, we triangulated evidence from different causal inference methods using a new wave of data (N = 13,398) from the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study. We combined multiple regression, one- and two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR), and negative control analyses (using pre-pubertal symptoms as outcomes) to assess the causal links between age at menarche and different domains of adolescent mental health.

RESULTS

Our results supported the hypothesis that earlier age at menarche is associated with elevated depressive symptoms in early adolescence based on multiple regression (β =  - 0.11, 95% CI [- 0.12, - 0.09], pone-tailed < 0.01). One-sample MR analyses suggested that this relationship may be causal (β =  - 0.07, 95% CI [- 0.13, 0.00], pone-tailed = 0.03), but the effect was small, corresponding to just a 0.06 standard deviation increase in depressive symptoms with each earlier year of menarche. There was also some evidence of a causal relationship with depression diagnoses during adolescence based on one-sample MR (OR = 0.74, 95% CI [0.54, 1.01], pone-tailed = 0.03), corresponding to a 29% increase in the odds of receiving a depression diagnosis with each earlier year of menarche. Negative control and two-sample MR sensitivity analyses were broadly consistent with this pattern of results. Multivariable MR analyses accounting for the genetic overlap between age at menarche and childhood body size provided some evidence of confounding. Meanwhile, we found little consistent evidence of effects on other domains of mental health after accounting for co-occurring depression and other confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence that age at menarche affected diagnoses of adolescent depression, but not other domains of mental health. Our findings suggest that earlier age at menarche is linked to problems in specific domains rather than adolescent mental health in general.

Obesity-Dependent Association of the rs10454142 PPP1R21 with Breast Cancer

The purpose of this work was to find a link between the breast cancer (BC)-risk effects of sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG)-associated polymorphisms and obesity. The study was conducted on a sample of 1498 women (358 BC; 1140 controls) who, depending on the presence/absence of obesity, were divided into two groups: obese (119 BC; 253 controls) and non-obese (239 BC; 887 controls). Genotyping of nine SHBG-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP)-rs17496332 PRMT6, rs780093 GCKR, rs10454142 PPP1R21, rs3779195 BAIAP2L1, rs440837 ZBTB10, rs7910927 JMJD1C, rs4149056 SLCO1B1, rs8023580 NR2F2, and rs12150660 SHBG-was executed, and the BC-risk impact of these loci was analyzed by logistic regression separately in each group of obese/non-obese women. We found that the BC-risk effect correlated by GWAS with the SHBG-level polymorphism rs10454142 PPP1R21 depends on the presence/absence of obesity. The SHBG-lowering allele C rs10454142 PPP1R21 has a risk value for BC in obese women (allelic model: CvsT, OR = 1.52, 95%CI = 1.10-2.11, and pperm = 0.013; additive model: CCvsTCvsTT, OR = 1.71, 95%CI = 1.15-2.62, and pperm = 0.011; dominant model: CC + TCvsTT, OR = 1.95, 95%CI = 1.13-3.37, and pperm = 0.017) and is not associated with the disease in women without obesity. SNP rs10454142 PPP1R21 and 10 proxy SNPs have adipose-specific regulatory effects (epigenetic modifications of promoters/enhancers, DNA interaction with 51 transcription factors, eQTL/sQTL effects on five genes (PPP1R21, RP11-460M2.1, GTF2A1L, STON1-GTF2A1L, and STON1), etc.), can be "likely cancer driver" SNPs, and are involved in cancer-significant pathways. In conclusion, our study detected an obesity-dependent association of the rs10454142 PPP1R21 with BC in women.

Understanding risk and causal mechanisms for developing obesity in infants and young children: A National Institutes of Health workshop

Obesity in children remains a major public health problem, with the current prevalence in youth ages 2-19 years estimated to be 19.7%. Despite progress in identifying risk factors, current models do not accurately predict development of obesity in early childhood. There is also substantial individual variability in response to a given intervention that is not well understood. On April 29-30, 2021, the National Institutes of Health convened a virtual workshop on "Understanding Risk and Causal Mechanisms for Developing Obesity in Infants and Young Children." The workshop brought together scientists from diverse disciplines to discuss (1) what is known regarding epidemiology and underlying biological and behavioral mechanisms for rapid weight gain and development of obesity and (2) what new approaches can improve risk prediction and gain novel insights into causes of obesity in early life. Participants identified gaps and opportunities for future research to advance understanding of risk and underlying mechanisms for development of obesity in early life. It was emphasized that future studies will require multi-disciplinary efforts across basic, behavioral, and clinical sciences. An exposome framework is needed to elucidate how behavioral, biological, and environmental risk factors interact. Use of novel statistical methods may provide greater insights into causal mechanisms.

Sex- and time-specific associations of obesity with glycaemic traits: A two-step multivariate Mendelian randomization study

AIM

To assess the sex- and time-specific causal effects of obesity-related anthropometric traits on glycaemic traits.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used univariate and multivariate Mendelian randomization to assess the causal associations of anthropometric traits (gestational variables, birth weight, childhood body mass index [BMI], BMI, waist-to-hip ratio [WHR], BMI-adjusted WHR [WHRadj BMI]) with fasting glucose and insulin in Europeans from the Early Growth Genetics Consortium (n ≤ 298 142), the UK Biobank, the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits Consortium (n ≤ 697 734; females: n ≤ 434 794; males: n ≤ 374 754) and the Meta-Analyses of Glucose and Insulin-related traits Consortium (n ≤ 151 188; females: n ≤ 73 089; males: n ≤ 67 506), adjusting for maternal genetic effects, smoking, alcohol consumption, and age at menarche.

RESULTS

We observed a null association for gestational variables, a negative association for birth weight, and positive associations for childhood BMI and adult traits (BMI, WHR, and WHRadj BMI). In female participants, increased birth weight causally decreased fasting insulin (betaIVW , -0.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.11 to -0.03; p = 1.92 × 10-3 ), but not glucose levels, which was annulled by adjusting for age at menarche. In male participants, increased birth weight causally decreased fasting glucose (betainverse-variance-weighted (IVW) , -0.07, 95% CI -0.11 to -0.03; p = 3.22 × 10-4 ), but not insulin levels. In time-specific analyses, independent effects of birth weight were absent in female participants, and were more pronounced in male participants. Independent effects of childhood BMI were attenuated in both sexes; independent effects of adult traits differed by sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide evidence for causal and independent effects of sex- and time-specific anthropometric traits on glycaemic variables, and highlight the importance of considering multiple obesity exposures at different time points in the life course.

Protein-truncating variants in BSN are associated with severe adult-onset obesity, type 2 diabetes and fatty liver disease

Obesity is a major risk factor for many common diseases and has a substantial heritable component. To identify new genetic determinants, we performed exome-sequence analyses for adult body mass index (BMI) in up to 587,027 individuals. We identified rare loss-of-function variants in two genes (BSN and APBA1) with effects substantially larger than those of well-established obesity genes such as MC4R. In contrast to most other obesity-related genes, rare variants in BSN and APBA1 were not associated with normal variation in childhood adiposity. Furthermore, BSN protein-truncating variants (PTVs) magnified the influence of common genetic variants associated with BMI, with a common variant polygenic score exhibiting an effect twice as large in BSN PTV carriers than in noncarriers. Finally, we explored the plasma proteomic signatures of BSN PTV carriers as well as the functional consequences of BSN deletion in human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived hypothalamic neurons. Collectively, our findings implicate degenerative processes in synaptic function in the etiology of adult-onset obesity.

Causal association of TSH with ischemic heart diseases and heart failure: A 2-sample Mendelian randomization study

Thyroid dysfunction is associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease; however, whether plasma thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels in subjects with euthyroidism affect the risk of cardiovascular disease remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the causal association between plasma TSH levels and cardiovascular diseases, particularly ischemic heart disease and heart failure (HF). Summary statistics from the Integrative Epidemiology Unit Open genome-wide association studies Project and FinnGen consortium were used to investigate the causal relationship between plasma TSH levels and the risk of cardiovascular diseases. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis using inverse-variance weighting as the primary method was performed. The MR Pleiotropy RESidual Sum and Outlier and leave-one-out methods were used to ensure the robustness of our findings. Genetically determined plasma TSH levels were associated with major coronary heart disease events (OR 1.0557, 95% CI 1.0141-1.0991), all-cause HF (OR 0.9587, 95% CI 0.9231-0.9956), and HF + non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (OR 0.9318, 95% CI 0.8786-0.9882). After the Bonferroni correction, the causation described above disappeared. In the secondary analysis, genetically determined higher TSH levels were associated with a higher risk for unstable angina pectoris (OR 1.0913, 95% CI 1.0350-1.1507), but were associated with a lower risk for HF + overweight (OR 0.9265, 95% CI 0.8821-0.9731). These results were further validated using sensitivity analysis. Our findings show that increased plasma TSH levels in patients with euthyroidism may increase the risk of unstable angina pectoris but reduce the risk of HF in overweight patients. This evidence indicates that plasma TSH levels may need to be carefully controlled in specific patients.

Characterizing the Causal Pathway From Childhood Adiposity to Right Heart Physiology and Pulmonary Circulation Using Lifecourse Mendelian Randomization

BACKGROUND

Observational epidemiological studies have reported an association between childhood adiposity and altered cardiac morphology and function in later life. However, whether this is due to a direct consequence of being overweight during childhood has been difficult to establish, particularly as accounting for other measures of body composition throughout the lifecourse can be exceptionally challenging.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this study, we used human genetics to investigate this using a causal inference technique known as lifecourse Mendelian randomization. This approach allowed us to evaluate the effect of childhood body size on 11 measures of right heart and pulmonary circulation independent of other anthropometric traits at various stages in the lifecourse. We found strong evidence that childhood body size has a direct effect on an enlarged right heart structure in later life (eg, right ventricular end-diastolic volume: β=0.24 [95% CI, 0.15-0.33]; P=3×10-7) independent of adulthood body size. In contrast, childhood body size effects on maximum ascending aorta diameter attenuated upon accounting for body size in adulthood, suggesting that this effect is likely attributed to individuals remaining overweight into later life. Effects of childhood body size on pulmonary artery traits and measures of right atrial function became weaker upon accounting for adulthood fat-free mass and childhood height, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that, although childhood body size has a long-term influence on an enlarged heart structure in adulthood, associations with the other structural components of the cardiovascular system and their function may be largely attributed to body composition at other stages in the lifecourse.

Dementia prevention: the Mendelian randomisation perspective

Understanding the causes of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias remains a challenge. Observational studies investigating dementia risk factors are limited by the pervasive issues of confounding, reverse causation and selection biases. Conducting randomised controlled trials for dementia prevention is often impractical due to the long prodromal phase and the inability to randomise many potential risk factors. In this essay, we introduce Mendelian randomisation as an alternative approach to examine factors that may prevent or delay Alzheimer's disease. Mendelian randomisation is a causal inference method that has successfully identified risk factors and treatments in various other fields. However, applying this method to dementia risk factors has yielded unexpected findings. Here, we consider five potential explanations and provide recommendations to enhance causal inference from Mendelian randomisation studies on dementia. By employing these strategies, we can better understand factors affecting dementia risk.

Genomic insights into the comorbidity between type 2 diabetes and schizophrenia

Multimorbidity represents an increasingly important public health challenge with far-reaching implications for health management and policy. Mental health and metabolic diseases have a well-established epidemiological association. In this study, we investigate the genetic intersection between type 2 diabetes and schizophrenia. We use Mendelian randomization to examine potential causal relationships between the two conditions and related endophenotypes. We report no compelling evidence that type 2 diabetes genetic liability potentially causally influences schizophrenia risk and vice versa. Our findings show that increased body mass index (BMI) has a protective effect against schizophrenia, in contrast to the well-known risk-increasing effect of BMI on type 2 diabetes risk. We identify evidence of colocalization of association signals for these two conditions at 11 genomic loci, six of which have opposing directions of effect for type 2 diabetes and schizophrenia. To elucidate these colocalizing signals, we integrate multi-omics data from bulk and single-cell gene expression studies, along with functional information. We identify putative effector genes and find that they are enriched for homeostasis and lipid-related pathways. We also highlight drug repurposing opportunities including N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonists. Our findings provide insights into shared biological mechanisms for type 2 diabetes and schizophrenia, highlighting common factors that influence the risk of the two conditions in opposite directions and shedding light on the complex nature of this comorbidity.

PheWAS-based clustering of Mendelian Randomisation instruments reveals distinct mechanism-specific causal effects between obesity and educational attainment

Mendelian Randomisation (MR) estimates causal effects between risk factors and complex outcomes using genetic instruments. Pleiotropy, heritable confounders, and heterogeneous causal effects violate MR assumptions and can lead to biases. To alleviate these, we propose an approach employing a Phenome-Wide association Clustering of the MR instruments (PWC-MR) and apply this method to revisit the surprisingly large apparent causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on educational attainment (EDU): [Formula: see text] = -0.19 [-0.22, -0.16]. First, we cluster 324 BMI-associated genetic instruments based on their association with 407 traits in the UK Biobank, which yields six distinct groups. Subsequent cluster-specific MR reveals heterogeneous causal effect estimates on EDU. A cluster enriched for socio-economic indicators yields the largest BMI-on-EDU causal effect estimate ([Formula: see text] = -0.49 [-0.56, -0.42]) whereas a cluster enriched for body-mass specific traits provides a more likely estimate ([Formula: see text] = -0.09 [-0.13, -0.05]). Follow-up analyses confirms these findings: within-sibling MR ([Formula: see text] = -0.05 [-0.09, -0.01]); MR for childhood BMI on EDU ([Formula: see text] = -0.03 [-0.06, -0.002]); step-wise multivariable MR ([Formula: see text] = -0.05 [-0.07, -0.02]) where socio-economic indicators are jointly modelled. Here we show how the in-depth examination of the BMI-EDU causal relationship demonstrates the utility of our PWC-MR approach in revealing distinct pleiotropic pathways and confounder mechanisms.

Early life body size and puberty markers as predictors of breast cancer risk later in life: A neural network analysis

BACKGROUND

The early life factors of birthweight, child weight, height, body mass index (BMI) and pubertal timing are associated with risks of breast cancer. However, the predictive value of these factors in relation to breast cancer is largely unknown. Therefore, using a machine learning approach, we examined whether birthweight, childhood weights, heights, BMIs, and pubertal timing individually and in combination were predictive of breast cancer.

METHODS

We used information on birthweight, childhood height and weight, and pubertal timing assessed by the onset of the growth spurt (OGS) from 164,216 girls born 1930-1996 from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register. Of these, 10,002 women were diagnosed with breast cancer during 1977-2019 according to a nationwide breast cancer database. We developed a feed-forward neural network, which was trained and tested on early life body size measures individually and in various combinations. Evaluation metrics were examined to identify the best performing model.

RESULTS

The highest area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was achieved in a model that included birthweight, childhood heights, weights and age at OGS (AUC = 0.600). A model based on childhood heights and weights had a comparable AUC value (AUC = 0.598), whereas a model including only childhood heights had the lowest AUC value (AUC = 0.572). The sensitivity of the models ranged from 0.698 to 0.760 while the precision ranged from 0.071 to 0.076.

CONCLUSION

We found that the best performing network was based on birthweight, childhood weights, heights and age at OGS as the input features. Nonetheless, this performance was only slightly better than the model including childhood heights and weights. Further, although the performance of our networks was relatively low, it was similar to those from previous studies including well-established risk factors. As such, our results suggest that childhood body size may add additional value to breast cancer prediction models.

Separating the effects of life course adiposity on diabetic nephropathy: a comprehensive multivariable Mendelian randomization study

Aims

Previous Mendelian randomization (MR) of obesity and diabetic nephropathy (DN) risk used small sample sizes or focused on a single adiposity metric. We explored the independent causal connection between obesity-related factors and DN risk using the most extensive GWAS summary data available, considering the distribution of adiposity across childhood and adulthood.

Methods

To evaluate the overall effect of each obesity-related exposure on DN (Ncase = 3,676, Ncontrol = 283,456), a two-sample univariate MR (UVMR) analysis was performed. The independent causal influence of each obesity-related feature on DN was estimated using multivariable MR (MVMR) when accounting for confounding variables. It was also used to examine the independent effects of adult and pediatric obesity, adjusting for their interrelationships. We used data from genome-wide association studies, including overall general (body mass index, BMI) and abdominal obesity (waist-to-hip ratio with and without adjustment for BMI, i.e., WHR and WHRadjBMI), along with childhood obesity (childhood BMI).

Results

UVMR revealed a significant association between adult BMI (OR=1.24, 95%CI=1.03-1.49, P=2.06×10-2) and pediatric BMI (OR=1.97, 95%CI=1.59-2.45, P=8.55×10-10) with DN risk. At the same time, adult WHR showed a marginally significant increase in DN (OR =1.27, 95%CI = 1.01-1.60, P=3.80×10-2). However, the outcomes were adverse when the influence of BMI was taken out of the WHR (WHRadjBMI). After adjusting for childhood BMI, the causal effects of adult BMI and adult abdominal obesity (WHR) on DN were significantly attenuated and became nonsignificant in MVMR models. In contrast, childhood BMI had a constant and robust independent effect on DN risk(adjusted for adult BMI: IVW, OR=1.90, 95% CI=1.60-2.25, P=2.03×10-13; LASSO, OR=1.91, 95% CI=1.65-2.21, P=3.80×10-18; adjusted for adult WHR: IVW, OR=1.80, 95% CI=1.40-2.31, P=4.20×10-6; LASSO, OR=1.90, 95% CI=1.56-2.32, P=2.76×10-10).

Interpretation

Our comprehensive analysis illustrated the hazard effect of obesity-related exposures for DN. In addition, we showed that childhood obesity plays a separate function in influencing the risk of DN and that the adverse effects of adult obesity (adult BMI and adult WHR) can be substantially attributed to it. Thus, several obesity-related traits deserve more attention and may become a new target for the prevention and treatment of DN and warrant further clinical investigation, especially in childhood obesity.

The impact of age-specific childhood body-mass index on adult cardiometabolic traits: a Mendelian randomization study

Objective

To evaluate the causal relationship between childhood body-mass index (BMI) at different ages and adult cardiometabolic traits.

Methods

We retrieved genetic instrument variables (IVs) for exposures (standardized BMI at newborn, infant, toddler and late childhood), cardiometabolic traits and potential confounders or mediators (adult BMI, SHBG, testosterone and age at menarche) from the corresponding genome-wide association analysis. We performed univariate and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) to dissect associations between age-specific childhood BMI and adult cardiometabolic outcomes. Odds ratio was used to present the direction of the causal association.

Results

In univariate MR, higher newborn BMI was causally associated with reduced risk for type 2 diabetes in women. Late childhood BMI was associated with increased risk for female diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD), myocardial infarction (MI), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in general population. Among these associations, only association between late childhood BMI with MI remained significant after adjusting for adult male BMI and sex hormones, (OR = 1.120, 95% CI 1.023-1.226, p = 0.014). Besides, in multivariable MR, we found evidence for causal association between newborn BMI with reduced risk for CAD (OR = 0.862, 95% CI 0.751-0.989, p = 0.034) and MI (OR = 0.864, 95% CI 0.752-0.991, p = 0.037) in men. No obvious impact of infant or toddler BMI was identified on the above-mentioned diseases. For continuous cardiometabolic traits, in all age epochs except infant, higher BMI was associated with increased level of fasting glucose in women.

Conclusion

BMI at birth and late childhood exerts different impact on adult cardiometabolic diseases, while BMI at infant and toddler ages is not causally associated with these outcomes. The effect of childhood BMI may be influenced by sex disparities.

Elucidating pathways to pediatric obesity: a study evaluating obesity polygenic risk scores related to appetitive traits in children

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Obesity polygenic risk scores (PRS) explain substantial variation in body mass index (BMI), yet associations between PRSs and appetitive traits in children remain unclear. To better understand pathways leading to pediatric obesity, this study aimed to assess the association of obesity PRSs and appetitive traits.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

This study included 248 unrelated children aged 9-12 years. DNA from the children was genotyped (236 met quality control thresholds) and four weighted polygenic risk scores from previous studies were computed and standardized: a 97 SNP PRS, 266 SNP pediatric-specific PRS, 466 SNP adult-specific PRS, and ~2 million SNP PRS. Appetitive traits were assessed using a parent-completed Child Eating Behavior Questionnaire, which evaluated food approach/avoidance traits and a composite obesogenic appetite score. BMI was directly measured and standardized by age and sex. Three associations were evaluated with linear regression: (1) appetitive traits and BMI, (2) PRSs and BMI, and (3) PRSs and appetitive traits, the primary association of interest.

RESULTS

Expected positive associations were observed between obesogenic appetitive traits and BMI and all four PRSs and BMI. Examining the association between PRSs and appetitive traits, all PRSs except for the 466 SNP adult PRS were significantly associated with the obesogenic appetite score. Each standard deviation increase in the 266 SNP pediatric PRS was associated with an adjusted 2.1% increase in obesogenic appetite score (95% CI: 0.6%, 3.7%, p = 0.006). Significant partial mediation of the PRS-BMI association by obesogenic appetite score was found for these PRSs; for example, 21.3% of the association between the 266 SNP pediatric PRS and BMI was explained by the obesogenic appetite score.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic obesity risk significantly predicted appetitive traits, which partially mediated the association between genetic obesity risk and BMI in children. These findings build a clearer picture of pathways leading to pediatric obesity.

A lifecourse Mendelian randomization study uncovers age-dependent effects of adiposity on asthma risk

Evaluating the long-term consequences of childhood lifestyle factors on asthma risk can be exceptionally challenging in epidemiology given that cases are typically diagnosed at various timepoints throughout the lifecourse. In this study, we used human genetic data to evaluate the effects of childhood and adulthood adiposity on risk of pediatric (n = 13,962 cases) and adult-onset asthma (n = 26,582 cases) with a common set of controls (n = 300,671) using a technique known as lifecourse Mendelian randomization. We found that childhood adiposity directly increases risk of pediatric asthma (OR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.03-1.37, p = 0.03), but limited evidence that it has an effect on adult-onset asthma after accounting for adiposity during adulthood (OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.93-1.17, p = 0.39). Conversely, there was strong evidence that adulthood adiposity increases asthma risk in midlife (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.28-1.46, P = 7 × 10-12). These findings suggest that childhood and adulthood adiposity are independent risk factors for asthma at each of their corresponding timepoints in the lifecourse.

A scan of all coding region variants of the human genome, identifies 13q12.2-rs9579139 and 15q24.1-rs2277598 as novel risk loci for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Coding sequence variants comprise a small fraction of the germline genetic variability of the human genome. However, they often cause deleterious change in protein function and are therefore associated with pathogenic phenotypes. To identify novel pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) risk loci, we carried out a complete scan of all common missense and synonymous SNPs and analysed them in a case-control study comprising four different populations, for a total of 14 538 PDAC cases and 190 657 controls. We observed a statistically significant association between 13q12.2-rs9581957-T and PDAC risk (P = 2.46 × 10-9), that is in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with a deleterious missense variant (rs9579139) of the URAD gene. Recent findings suggest that this gene is active in peroxisomes. Considering that peroxisomes have a key role as molecular scavengers, especially in eliminating reactive oxygen species, a malfunctioning URAD protein might expose the cell to a higher load of potentially DNA damaging molecules and therefore increase PDAC risk. The association was observed in individuals of European and Asian ethnicity. We also observed the association of the missense variant 15q24.1-rs2277598-T, that belongs to BBS4 gene, with increased PDAC risk (P = 1.53 × 10-6). rs2277598 is associated with body mass index and is in LD with diabetes susceptibility loci. In conclusion, we identified two missense variants associated with the risk of developing PDAC independently from the ethnicity highlighting the importance of conducting reanalysis of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in light of functional data.

Selection bias as an explanation for the observed protective association of childhood adiposity with breast cancer

OBJECTIVES

Recalled childhood adiposity is inversely associated with breast cancer observationally, including in Mendelian randomization (MR) studies. Breast cancer studies recruited in adulthood only include survivors of childhood adiposity and breast cancer or a competing risk. We assessed recalled childhood adiposity on participant reported sibling and maternal breast cancer to ensure ascertainment of nonsurvivors.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We obtained independent strong genetic predictors of recalled childhood adiposity for women and their associations with participant reported own, sibling and maternal breast cancer from UK Biobank genome wide association studies.

RESULTS

Recalled childhood adiposity in women was inversely associated with own breast cancer using Mendelian randomization inverse variance weighting (odds ratio (OR) 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52-0.84) but less clearly related to participant reported sibling (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.69-1.14) or maternal breast cancer (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.67-1.05).

CONCLUSION

Weaker inverse associations of recalled childhood adiposity with breast cancer with more comprehensive ascertainment of cases before recruitment suggests the inverse association of recalled childhood adiposity with breast cancer could be partly selection bias from preferential selection of survivors. Greater consideration of survival bias in public health relevant causal inferences would be helpful.

Causal effects of time-varying body size on selected autoimmune disorders: a life course Mendelian randomisation study

BACKGROUND

Based on Barker's hypothesis, some studies investigated the associations between birth weight and several disorders. Apart from issues with statistical power and well-known shortcomings of the observational study design, there are no studies accounting for changes in weight-related body size over the life course regarding rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis and multiple sclerosis.

METHODS

Using genetic information of up to 806 834 participants, this study investigated the associations between time-varying weight-related body size from birth to adulthood and the mentioned autoimmune diseases. Performing Mendelian randomisation (MR), the radial inverse-variance weighted approach was used iteratively in primary analyses. Robustness of the results was confirmed in several sensitivity analyses. Potential time-dependent mediation mechanisms were identified through network-clustering and assessed using multivariable MR.

RESULTS

Genetically predicted birth weight (fetal effect) was positively associated with rheumatoid arthritis (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.17 to 1.77; Padj =0.005) but not with psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis or multiple sclerosis. This association was found to be mediated by body mass index (BMI) in adulthood (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.84; Padj =0.019) rather than childhood. The direct effect of birth weight attenuated (OR 1.19; 95% CI 0.88 to 1.62); Padj =1) after adjustment for time-varying BMI.

CONCLUSION

Increased birth weight appears to be a risk factor for later manifestation of rheumatoid arthritis due to both fetal genetic components and high BMI persisting into adulthood. Approaches to prevent and minimise the risk of rheumatoid arthritis could include preventing obesity in adults with high birth weight.

Time-varying and tissue-dependent effects of adiposity on leptin levels: A Mendelian randomization study

Background

Findings from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies are conventionally interpreted as lifelong effects, which typically do not provide insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying the effect of an exposure on an outcome. In this study, we apply two recently developed MR approaches (known as 'lifecourse' and 'tissue-partitioned' MR) to investigate lifestage-specific effects and tissues of action in the relationship between adiposity and circulating leptin levels.

Methods

Genetic instruments for childhood and adult adiposity were incorporated into a multivariable MR (MVMR) framework to estimate lifestage-specific effects on leptin levels measured during early life (mean age: 10 y) in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children and in adulthood (mean age: 55 y) using summary-level data from the deCODE Health study. This was followed by partitioning body mass index (BMI) instruments into those whose effects are putatively mediated by gene expression in either subcutaneous adipose or brain tissues, followed by using MVMR to simultaneously estimate their separate effects on childhood and adult leptin levels.

Results

There was strong evidence that childhood adiposity has a direct effect on leptin levels at age 10 y in the lifecourse (β = 1.10 SD change in leptin levels, 95% CI = 0.90-1.30, p=6 × 10-28), whereas evidence of an indirect effect was found on adulthood leptin along the causal pathway involving adulthood body size (β = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.62-0.86, p=1 × 10-33). Tissue-partitioned MR analyses provided evidence to suggest that BMI exerts its effect on leptin levels during both childhood and adulthood via brain tissue-mediated pathways (β = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.22-1.36, p=6 × 10-3 and β = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.32-0.69, p=1 × 10-7, respectively).

Conclusions

Our findings demonstrate the use of lifecourse MR to disentangle direct and indirect effects of early-life exposures on time-varying complex outcomes. Furthermore, by integrating tissue-specific data, we highlight the etiological importance of appetite regulation in the effect of adiposity on leptin levels.

Funding

This work was supported by the Integrative Epidemiology Unit, which receives funding from the UK Medical Research Council and the University of Bristol (MC_UU_00011/1).

Genomic insights into the comorbidity between type 2 diabetes and schizophrenia

Multimorbidity represents an increasingly important public health challenge with far-reaching implications for health management and policy. Mental health and metabolic diseases have a well-established epidemiological association. In this study, we investigate the genetic intersection between type 2 diabetes and schizophrenia. We use Mendelian randomization to examine potential causal relationships between the two conditions and related endophenotypes. We report no compelling evidence that type 2 diabetes genetic liability potentially causally influences schizophrenia risk and vice versa. Our findings show that increased body mass index (BMI) has a protective effect against schizophrenia, in contrast to the well-known risk-increasing effect of BMI on type 2 diabetes risk. We identify evidence of colocalization of association signals for these two conditions at 11 genomic loci, six of which have opposing directions of effect for type 2 diabetes and schizophrenia. To elucidate these colocalizing signals, we integrate multi-omics data from bulk and single-cell gene expression studies, along with functional information. We identify high-confidence effector genes and find that they are enriched for homeostasis and lipid-related pathways. We also highlight drug repurposing opportunities including N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonists. Our findings provide insights into shared biological mechanisms for type 2 diabetes and schizophrenia, highlighting common factors that influence the risk of the two conditions in opposite directions and shedding light on the complex nature of this comorbidity.

Genetic variation and elevated liver enzymes during childhood, adolescence and early adulthood

BACKGROUND

Genetic factors influence the risk of fatty liver disease (FLD) in adults. The aim of this study was to test if, and when, genetic risk factors known to affect FLD in adults begin to exert their deleterious effects during childhood, adolescence and early adulthood.

METHODS

We included up to 4018 British children and adolescents from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort. Three genetic variants known to associate robustly with FLD in adults (PNPLA3 rs738409, TM6SF2 rs58542926 and HSD17B13 rs72613567) were tested for association with plasma levels of alanine transaminase (ALT) and aspartate transaminase (AST) during childhood (mean age: 9.9 years), early adolescence (15.5 years), late adolescence (17.8 years), and early adulthood (24.5 years). We also tested the associations of a 17-variant score and whole-genome polygenic risk scores (PRS) derived from associations in adults with plasma ALT and AST at the same four time points. Associations with elastography-derived liver steatosis and fibrosis were tested in early adulthood.

RESULTS

Genetic risk factors for FLD (individually, combined into a 3-variant score, a 17-variant score and as a genome-wide PRS), were associated with higher liver enzymes, beginning in childhood and throughout adolescence and early adulthood. The ALT-increasing effects of the genetic risk variants became larger with increasing age. The ALT-PRS was associated with liver steatosis in early adulthood. No genetic associations with fibrosis were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic factors that promote FLD in adults associate with elevated liver enzymes already during childhood, and their effects get amplified with increasing age.

Life course effects of genetic susceptibility to higher body size on body fat and lean mass: prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Different genetic variants are associated with larger body size in childhood vs adulthood. Whether and when these variants predominantly influence adiposity are unknown. We examined how genetic variants influence total body fat and total lean mass trajectories.

METHODS

Data were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children birth cohort (N = 6926). Sex-specific genetic risk scores (GRS) for childhood and adulthood body size were generated, and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans measured body fat and lean mass six times between the ages of 9 and 25 years. Multilevel linear spline models examined associations of GRS with fat and lean mass trajectories.

RESULTS

In males, the sex-specific childhood and adulthood GRS were associated with similar differences in fat mass from 9 to 18 years; 8.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1, 11.6] and 7.5% (95% CI 4.3, 10.8) higher fat mass at 18 years per standard deviation (SD) higher childhood and adulthood GRS, respectively. In males, the sex-combined childhood GRS had stronger effects at ages 9 to 15 than the sex-combined adulthood GRS. In females, associations for the sex-specific childhood GRS were almost 2-fold stronger than the adulthood GRS from 9 to 18 years: 10.5% (95% CI 8.5, 12.4) higher fat mass at 9 years per SD higher childhood GRS compared with 5.1% (95% CI 3.2, 6.9) per-SD higher adulthood GRS. In females, the sex-combined GRS had similar effects, with slightly larger effect estimates. Lean mass effect sizes were much smaller.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic variants for body size are more strongly associated with adiposity than with lean mass. Sex-combined childhood variants are more strongly associated with increased adiposity until early adulthood. This may inform future studies that use genetics to investigate the causes and impact of adiposity at different life stages.

Establishing the relationships between adiposity and reproductive factors: a multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Few studies have investigated associations between adiposity and reproductive factors using causal methods, both of which have a number of consequences on women's health. Here we assess whether adiposity at different points in the lifecourse affects reproductive factors differently and independently, and the plausibility of the impact of reproductive factors on adiposity.

METHODS

We used genetic data from UK Biobank (273,238 women) and other consortia (EGG, GIANT, ReproGen and SSGAC) for eight reproductive factors: age at menarche, age at menopause, age at first birth, age at last birth, number of births, being parous, age first had sexual intercourse and lifetime number of sexual partners, and two adiposity traits: childhood and adulthood body size. We applied multivariable Mendelian randomization to account for genetic correlation and to estimate the causal effects of childhood and adulthood adiposity, independently of each other, on reproductive factors. Additionally, we estimated the effects of reproductive factors, independently of other relevant reproductive factors, on adulthood adiposity.

RESULTS

We found a higher childhood body size leads to an earlier age at menarche, and an earlier age at menarche leads to a higher adulthood body size. Furthermore, we find contrasting and independent effects of childhood and adulthood body size on age at first birth (beta 0.22 SD (95% confidence interval: 0.14, 0.31) vs - 2.49 (- 2.93, - 2.06) per 1 SD increase), age at last birth (0.13 (0.06,0.21) vs - 1.86 (- 2.23, - 1.48) per 1 SD increase), age at menopause (0.17 (0.09, 0.25) vs - 0.99 (- 1.39, - 0.59) per 1 SD increase), and likelihood of having children (Odds ratio 0.97 (0.95, 1.00) vs 1.20 (1.06, 1.37) per 1 SD increase).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering a lifecourse approach when investigating the inter-relationships between adiposity measures and reproductive events, as well as the use of 'age specific' genetic instruments when evaluating lifecourse hypotheses in a Mendelian randomization framework.

Review of mendelian randomization studies on age at natural menopause

Menopause marks the end of the reproductive phase of life. Based on epidemiological studies, abnormal age at natural menopause (ANM) is thought to contribute to a number of adverse outcomes, such as osteoporosis, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. However, the causality of these associations remains unclear. A powerful epidemiological method known as Mendelian randomization (MR) can be used to clarify the causality between ANM and other diseases or traits. The present review describes MR studies that included ANM as an exposure, outcome and mediator. The findings of MR analyses on ANM have revealed that higher body mass index, poor educational level, early age at menarche, early age at first live birth, early age at first sexual intercourse, and autoimmune thyroid disease appear to be involved in early ANM etiology. The etiology of late ANM appears to be influenced by higher free thyroxine 4 and methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase gene mutations. Furthermore, early ANM has been found to be causally associated with an increased risk of osteoporosis, fracture, type 2 diabetes mellitus, glycosylated hemoglobin, and the homeostasis model of insulin resistance level. In addition, late ANM has been found to be causally associated with an increased systolic blood pressure, higher risk of breast cancer, endometrial cancer, endometrioid ovarian carcinoma, lung cancer, longevity, airflow obstruction, and lower risk of Parkinson's disease. ANM is also a mediator for breast cancer caused by birth weight and childhood body size. However, due to the different instrumental variables used, some results of studies are inconsistent. Future studies with more valid genetic variants are needed for traits with discrepancies between MRs or between MR and other types of epidemiological studies.

The mediating role of mammographic density in the protective effect of early-life adiposity on breast cancer risk: a multivariable Mendelian randomization study

Observational studies suggest that mammographic density (MD) may have a role in the unexplained protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer risk. Here, we investigated a complex and interlinked relationship between puberty onset, adiposity, MD, and their effects on breast cancer using Mendelian randomization (MR). We estimated the effects of childhood and adulthood adiposity, and age at menarche on MD phenotypes (dense area (DA), non-dense area (NDA), percent density (PD)) using MR and multivariable MR (MVMR), allowing us to disentangle their total and direct effects. Next, we examined the effect of MD on breast cancer risk, including risk of molecular subtypes, and accounting for genetic pleiotropy. Finally, we used MVMR to evaluate whether the protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer was mediated by MD. Childhood adiposity had a strong inverse effect on mammographic DA, while adulthood adiposity increased NDA. Later menarche had an effect of increasing DA and PD, but when accounting for childhood adiposity, this effect attenuated to the null. DA and PD had a risk-increasing effect on breast cancer across all subtypes. The MD single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) estimates were extremely heterogeneous, and examination of the SNPs suggested different mechanisms may be linking MD and breast cancer. Finally, MR mediation analysis estimated that 56% (95% CIs [32% - 79%]) of the childhood adiposity effect on breast cancer risk was mediated via DA. In this work, we sought to disentangle the relationship between factors affecting MD and breast cancer. We showed that higher childhood adiposity decreases mammographic DA, which subsequently leads to reduced breast cancer risk. Understanding this mechanism is of great importance for identifying potential targets of intervention, since advocating weight gain in childhood would not be recommended.

Large-scale exome sequence analysis identifies sex- and age-specific determinants of obesity

Obesity contributes substantially to the global burden of disease and has a significant heritable component. Recent large-scale exome sequencing studies identified several genes in which rare, protein-coding variants have large effects on adult body mass index (BMI). Here we extended such work by performing sex-stratified associations in the UK Biobank study (N∼420,000). We identified genes in which rare heterozygous loss-of-function increases adult BMI in women (DIDO1, PTPRG, and SLC12A5) and in men (SLTM), with effect sizes up to ∼8 kg/m2. This is complemented by analyses implicating rare variants in OBSCN and MADD for recalled childhood adiposity. The known functions of these genes, as well as findings of common variant genome-wide pathway enrichment analyses, suggest a role for neuron death, apoptosis, and DNA damage response mechanisms in the susceptibility to obesity across the life-course. These findings highlight the importance of considering sex-specific and life-course effects in the genetic regulation of obesity.

Guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations: update for summer 2023

This paper provides guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations. It is aimed at practitioners seeking to undertake analyses and write up their findings, and at journal editors and reviewers seeking to assess Mendelian randomization manuscripts. The guidelines are divided into ten sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses (one section on robust statistical methods and one on other approaches), extensions and additional analyses, data presentation, and interpretation. These guidelines will be updated based on feedback from the community and advances in the field. Updates will be made periodically as needed, and at least every 24 months.

Genetic evidence that high BMI in childhood has a protective effect on intermediate diabetes traits, including measures of insulin sensitivity and secretion, after accounting for BMI in adulthood

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Determining how high BMI at different time points influences the risk of developing type 2 diabetes and affects insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity is critical.

METHODS

By estimating childhood BMI in 441,761 individuals in the UK Biobank, we identified which genetic variants had larger effects on adulthood BMI than on childhood BMI, and vice versa. All genome-wide significant genetic variants were then used to separate the independent genetic effects of high childhood BMI from those of high adulthood BMI on the risk of type 2 diabetes and insulin-related phenotypes using Mendelian randomisation. We performed two-sample MR using external studies of type 2 diabetes, and oral and intravenous measures of insulin secretion and sensitivity.

RESULTS

We found that a childhood BMI that was one standard deviation (1.97 kg/m2) higher than the mean, corrected for the independent genetic liability to adulthood BMI, was associated with a protective effect for seven measures of insulin sensitivity and secretion, including increased insulin sensitivity index (β=0.15; 95% CI 0.067, 0.225; p=2.79×10-4) and reduced fasting glucose levels (β=-0.053; 95% CI -0.089, -0.017; p=4.31×10-3). However, there was little to no evidence of a direct protective effect on type 2 diabetes (OR 0.94; 95% CI 0.85, 1.04; p=0.228) independently of genetic liability to adulthood BMI.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our results provide evidence of the protective effect of higher childhood BMI on insulin secretion and sensitivity, which are crucial intermediate diabetes traits. However, we stress that our results should not currently lead to any change in public health or clinical practice, given the uncertainty regarding the biological pathway of these effects and the limitations of this type of study.

Age-specific effects of weight-based body size on fracture risk in later life: a lifecourse Mendelian randomisation study

Musculoskeletal conditions, including fractures, can have severe and long-lasting consequences. Higher body mass index in adulthood is widely acknowledged to be protective for most fracture sites. However, sources of bias induced by confounding factors may have distorted previous findings. Employing a lifecourse Mendelian randomisation (MR) approach by using genetic instruments to separate effects at different life stages, this investigation aims to explore how prepubertal and adult body size independently influence fracture risk in later life.Using data from a large prospective cohort, univariable and multivariable MR were conducted to simultaneously estimate the effects of age-specific genetic proxies for body size (n = 453,169) on fracture risk (n = 416,795). A two-step MR framework was additionally applied to elucidate potential mediators. Univariable and multivariable MR indicated strong evidence that higher body size in childhood reduced fracture risk (OR, 95% CI: 0.89, 0.82 to 0.96, P = 0.005 and 0.76, 0.69 to 0.85, P = 1 × 10- 6, respectively). Conversely, higher body size in adulthood increased fracture risk (OR, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.01 to 1.16, P = 0.023 and 1.26, 1.14 to 1.38, P = 2 × 10- 6, respectively). Two-step MR analyses suggested that the effect of higher body size in childhood on reduced fracture risk was mediated by its influence on higher estimated bone mineral density (eBMD) in adulthood.This investigation provides novel evidence that higher body size in childhood reduces fracture risk in later life through its influence on increased eBMD. From a public health perspective, this relationship is complex since obesity in adulthood remains a major risk factor for co-morbidities. Results additionally indicate that higher body size in adulthood is a risk factor for fractures. Protective effect estimates previously observed are likely attributed to childhood effects.