The COVID-19 pandemic: diverse contexts; different epidemics-how and why?

Twice-in-a-Lifetime Pandemics: An Exploratory Qualitative Life-History Analysis of the Longitudinal Experiences of Hospital Chaplains Who Served During Both the Early AIDS (1981-1995) and Early COVID-19 (2020-2021) Pandemics in the USA and United Kingdom

The aim of this study was to document the longitudinal experiences of chaplains who served during both the early AIDS (1981-1995) and early COVID-19 (2020-2021) pandemics. A total of 11 hospital chaplains were interviewed across the USA and the United Kingdom. Interviews were analyzed using a Grounded theory approach. Chaplains reported multiple stressors during both pandemics, including barriers to integration into care teams, tensions with home religions institutions, burnout, and challenges arising from the politicization of disease. Despite these challenges, chaplains play a vital role during pandemics. Insights from their experiences can inform future strategies for compassionate crisis response.

Laboratory biomarkers associated with COVID-19 mortality among inpatients in a Peruvian referral hospital

Aim

To evaluate the biochemical and hematological markers associated with the risk of death due to COVID-19 in a clinical cohort with a severe clinical profile.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted among 215 anonymized inpatient records from the Hospital Nacional Almanzor Aguinaga Asenjo, Peru, between April and June 2020. The association between biomarkers and death due to COVID-19 was assessed using Cox regression, with a multivariable modeling of 1) biochemical and 2) hematological markers. Kaplan-Meier analyses and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated for each associated biomarker (p < 0.05).

Results

Data analysis of 215 inpatient records revealed an overall mortality rate of 51.30% (95% CI 44.70-58.50), a mean age of 63.90 ± 14.10 years, and a median oxygen saturation of 88% (interquartile range 82-92%). The best-fitted biochemical model included higher levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, fibrinogen, urea, and lactate dehydrogenase. Similarly, the best-fitted hematological model included higher absolute neutrophil and prothrombin time, and lower absolute platelet counts. The best area under the curve values in both models were found to be CRP and D-dimer values (>0.74) and the absolute neutrophil count (0.63).

Conclusions

Some specific biochemical markers outperformed hematological markers. Evaluated hematological counts analyzed in multivariable models proved to be better markers and could be useful to discriminate COVID-19 patients at high risk of death.

Obesity and mortality in patients with COVID-19: A meta-analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Previous prospective studies have reported inconsistent findings on the associ-ation between obesity and mortality in patients with COVID-19. This study aimed to investigate the associa-tion between them by using a meta-analysis of prospective studies.

METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN

We searched PubMed and EMBASE to retrieve studies using keywords related to this topic on January 3, 2022. Data were extracted for a random-effects meta-analysis to calculate a pooled odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), or hazard ratio (HR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

In the meta-analysis of 15 prospective cohort studies, obesity significantly increased the risk of mortality in patients with COVID-19 (OR/RR/HR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.26 to 1.84; I2 = 90.4%). Most of the included studies were conducted in European (n = 10) and North American (n = 4) countries. In the subgroup meta-analysis by continent, there was a significant association between them in European countries (OR/RR/HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.30 to 2.43; I2 = 81.4%). Also, in the subgroup meta-analysis by data source, obesity was significantly associated with the increased mortality in patients with COVID-19 in both population- and hospital-based data.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that obesity is associated with the increased risk of mortality in patients of COVID-19.

Interrogating the lack of diversity of thought in the pandemic response that led to mistakes - holistic evidence-based approach to deal with future pandemics

The COVID-19 pandemic, triggered by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), rapidly became a worldwide emergency. How it was managed garnered both commendation and vehement censure. This crisis profoundly affected healthcare, the economy, education, and public confidence in scientific endeavors. Our primary aim was to scrutinize the shortcomings in the pandemic management and to articulate a more effective strategy for handling prospective pandemics. We delved into the errors encountered in the COVID-19 response and posited a holistic, evidence-grounded approach for future pandemic mitigation.

Nightmare distress, insomnia and resilience of nursing staff in the post-pandemic era

Introduction

The pandemic has led to notable psychological challenges among healthcare professionals, including nurses.

Objective

Our aims of this study were to assess insomnia and nightmare distress levels in nurses and investigate their association with mental resilience.

Methods

Nurses participated in an online survey, which included the Nightmare Distress Questionnaire (NDQ), Brief Resilience Scale (BRS) and Athens Insomnia Scale (AIS). Demographic information, such as age, professional experience and gender, was also collected.

Results

The study included 355 female and 78 male nurses. Findings revealed that 61.4% had abnormal AIS scores, 7% had abnormal NDQ scores and 25.4% had low BRS scores. Female nurses had higher AIS and NDQ scores but lower BRS scores compared to males. BRS demonstrated negative correlations with both AIS and NDQ. Multiple regression analysis indicated that NDQ accounted for 24% of the AIS variance, with an additional 6.5% explained by the BRS. BRS acted as a mediator, attenuating the impact of nightmares on insomnia, with gender moderating this relationship.

Conclusions

Nursing staff experienced heightened sleep disturbances during the pandemic, with nightmares and insomnia being prevalent. Nightmares significantly contributed to insomnia, but mental resilience played a vital role in mitigating this effect. Strategies are warranted to address the pandemic's psychological impact on nursing professionals.

The district operation centres in one of the largest local health authorities in Italy to manage COVID-19 surveillance and homecare: first implementation and results of a survey addressed to general practitioners

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 pandemic represented a shock for healthcare systems. Italy was one of the first country to deal with a huge number of patients to be diagnosed, isolated, and treated with scarce evidence-based guidelines and resources. Several organizational and structural changes were needed to face the pandemic at local level. The article aims at studying the perceived impact of the newly implemented District Operation Centres (DOCs) of Local Health Authority (LHA) Roma 1 in managing active surveillance and home care of COVID-19 patients and their close contacts in cooperation with general practitioners (GPs).

METHODS

A questionnaire, developed according to Delphi methodology, was validated by 7 experts and administered to a randomized sample of GPs and family paediatricians (FPs). All medical doctors selected received a phone interview between December 2020 and January 2021. The questionnaire investigated general characteristics of the sample, relations with DOC and its usefulness, and potential developments. A descriptive analysis was performed and inferential statistical tests were used to assess differences.

RESULTS

In April 2020 the LHA Roma 1 implemented one DOCs in each local health district. 215 medical doctors were interviewed, reaching the sample target for health districts (80% CL and 10% MOE) and the whole LHA (90% CL and 5% MOE). Several aspects in the management of COVID-19 cases and close contacts of COVID-19 cases, and of the support of DOCs to GPs/FPs were investigated. More than 55% of the GPs and FPs interviewed found the DOCs useful and more than 78% would recommend a service DOC-like to other LHAs. The medical professionals interviewed would use DOCs in the future as support in treating vulnerable patients, utilizing digital health tools, enlisting specialist doctors, establishing networks, and facilitating professional counselling by nurses.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is an attempt to evaluate an organizational change happened during COVID-19 pandemic. DOCs were created to support GPs and FPs as a link between primary healthcare and public health. Although several difficulties were disclosed, DOCs' experience can help to overcome the fragmentation of the systems and the duality between primary care and public health and make the system more resilient.

Shifts of SARS-CoV-2 exposure settings in the transmission clusters of 2 epidemic waves in Hong Kong

Exposure setting is crucial in the formation and propagation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters. In this cohort study, transmission networks of 2 waves were differentiated by exposure setting using territory-wide surveillance data with clinical and laboratory records in Hong Kong. Characteristically, the first wave had resulted from imported cases followed by local transmissions, while the second wave was constituted primarily by local infections. With a 4-fold higher caseload, the second wave featured predominance of epidemiologically linked, local, older and asymptomatic patients with higher viral loads and shorter inpatient days. The 1028 transmission clusters formed 155 cascades composing at least two clusters. Daily and social activities were exposure settings that bridged clusters while residences usually terminated transmission cascades. Regulatory restrictions on social activities extinguished cluster formation in bars, but shifted to private parties in the second wave. The results confirmed that strategic interventions targeting exposure settings could achieve effective epidemic control.

Surfing Corona waves - instead of breaking them: Rethinking the role of natural immunity in COVID-19 policy

In the first two years of the pandemic, COVID-19 response policies have aimed to break Corona waves through non-pharmaceutical interventions and mass vaccination. However, for long-term strategies to be effective and efficient, and to avoid massive disruption and social harms, it is crucial to introduce the role of natural immunity in our thinking about COVID-19  (or future "Disease-X") control and prevention. We argue that any Corona or similar virus control policy must appropriately balance five key elements simultaneously: balancing the various fundamental interests of the nation, as well as the various interventions within the health sector; tailoring the prevention measures and treatments to individual needs; limiting social interaction restrictions; and balancing the role of vaccinations against the role of naturally induced immunity. Given the high infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 and its differential impact on population segments, we examine this last element in more detail and argue that an important aspect of 'living with the virus' will be to better understand the role of naturally induced immunity in our overall COVID-19 policy response. In our eyes, a policy approach that factors natural immunity should be considered for persons without major comorbidities and those having 'encountered' the antigen in the past.

Inequality in COVID-19 vaccination in Africa

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly to all countries with significant health, socioeconomic, and political consequences. Several safe and effective vaccines have been developed. However, it is not certain that all African countries have successfully vaccinated their populations.

Objective

To study the distribution and determinants of COVID-19 vaccination in Africa from March 2021 to June 2022.

Methods

Using reliable open-access data, we used the proportion of fully vaccinated people with a complete schedule as a reference variable. To analyze the level of inequality in COVID-19 vaccination, we computed common inequality indicators including two percentile ratios, the Generalized Entropy index, the Gini coefficient, and the Atkinson index. We also estimated the Lorenz curve. To identify drivers of COVID-19 vaccination, we estimated univariate and multivariate regression models as a function of COVID-19-related variables, demographic, epidemiologic, socioeconomic, and health system-related variables. To overcome a potential endogeneity bias, we checked our results using simultaneous equation models.

Results

53 African countries with available data were included in the study. The proportion of fully vaccinated people increased during the study period. However, this increase remained unequal across African countries. Based on the inequality indicators and the Lorenz curve, inequalities in COVID-19 vaccination across African countries were high, although they have decreased in recent months. Total COVID-19 cases and human development index were identified as significant determinant factors that were independently associated with COVID-19 vaccination.

Conclusions

Inequality in COVID-19 vaccination in Africa was high. Promoting adequate information to the general population and providing financial and logistical support to low-income countries can help expand COVID-19 vaccination in Africa.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Strict Mobility Restrictions Save Lives and Healthcare Costs in Maharashtra, India?

INTRODUCTION

Maharashtra, India, remained a hotspot during the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial complete lockdown, the state slowly relaxed restrictions. We aim to estimate the lockdown's impact on COVID-19 cases and associated healthcare costs.

METHODS

Using daily case data for 84 days (9 March-31 May 2020), we modeled the epidemic's trajectory and predicted new cases for different phases of lockdown. We fitted log-linear models to estimate the growth rate, basic (R₀), daily reproduction number (R_e), and case doubling time. Based on pre-restriction and Phase 1 R₀, we predicted new cases for the rest of the restriction phases, and we compared them with the actual number of cases during each phase. Furthermore, using the published and gray literature, we estimated the costs and savings of implementing these restrictions for the projected period, and we performed a sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

The estimated median R₀ during the different phases was 1.14 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.45) for pre-lockdown, 1.67 (95% CI: 1.50, 1.82) for phase 1 (strict mobility restrictions), 1.24 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.35) for phase 2 (extension of phase 1 with no restrictions on agricultural and essential services), 1.12 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.23) for phase 3 (extension of phase 2 with mobility relaxations in areas with few infections), and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.123) for phase 4 (implementation of localized lockdowns in high-case-load areas with fewer restrictions on other areas), respectively. The corresponding doubling time rate for cases (in days) was 17.78 (95% CI: 5.61, -15.19), 3.87 (95% CI: 3.15, 5.00), 10.37 (95% CI: 7.10, 19.30), 20.31 (95% CI: 10.70, 212.50), and 45.56 (95% CI: 20.50, -204.52). For the projected period, the cases could have reached 631,819 without the lockdown, as the actual reported number of cases was 64,975. From a healthcare perspective, the estimated total value of averted cases was INR 194.73 billion (USD 2.60 billion), resulting in net cost savings of 84.05%. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) for implementing the lockdown, rather than observing the natural course of the pandemic, was INR 33,812.15 (USD 450.83).

CONCLUSION

Maharashtra's early public health response delayed the pandemic and averted new cases and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic. However, we recommend that such restrictions be carefully used while considering the local socio-economic realities in countries like India.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit during the first and second waves of the pandemic in Brazil: a single-center retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To describe and compare the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to intensive care units during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

In this retrospective single-center cohort study, data were retrieved from the Epimed Monitor System; all adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit between March 4, 2020, and October 1, 2021, were included in the study. We compared the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to the intensive care unit of a quaternary private hospital in São Paulo, Brazil, during the first (May 1, 2020, to August 31, 2020) and second (March 1, 2021, to June 30, 2021) waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

In total, 1,427 patients with COVID-19 were admitted to the intensive care unit during the first (421 patients) and second (1,006 patients) waves. Compared with the first wave group [median (IQR)], the second wave group was younger [57 (46-70) versus 67 (52-80) years; p<0.001], had a lower SAPS 3 Score [45 (42-52) versus 49 (43-57); p<0.001], lower SOFA Score on intensive care unit admission [3 (1-6) versus 4 (2-6); p=0.018], lower Charlson Comorbidity Index [0 (0-1) versus 1 (0-2); p<0.001], and were less frequently frail (10.4% versus 18.1%; p<0.001). The second wave group used more noninvasive ventilation (81.3% versus 53.4%; p<0.001) and high-flow nasal cannula (63.2% versus 23.0%; p<0.001) during their intensive care unit stay. The intensive care unit (11.3% versus 10.5%; p=0.696) and in-hospital mortality (12.3% versus 12.1%; p=0.998) rates did not differ between both waves.

CONCLUSION

In the first and second waves, patients with severe COVID-19 exhibited similar mortality rates and need for invasive organ support, despite the second wave group being younger and less severely ill at the time of intensive care unit admission.

An observational study on factors associated with ICU mortality in Covid-19 patients and critical review of the literature

The novel pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been associated with increased burden on healthcare system. Recognizing the variables that independently predict death in COVID-19 is of great importance. The study was carried out prospectively in a single ICU in northern Greece. It was based on the collection of data during clinical practice in 375 adult patients who were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between April 2020 and February 2022. All patients were intubated due to acute respiratory insufficiency and received Invasive Mechanical Ventilation. The primary outcome was ICU mortality. Secondary outcomes were 28-day mortality and independent predictors of mortality at 28 days and during ICU hospitalization. For continuous variables with normal distribution, t-test was used for means comparison between two groups and one-way ANOVA for multiple comparisons. When the distribution was not normal, comparisons were performed using the Mann-Whitney test. Comparisons between discrete variables were made using the x² test, whereas the binary logistic regression was employed for the definition of factors affecting survival inside the ICU and after 28 days. Of the total number of patients intubated due to COVID-19 during the study period, 239 (63.7%) were male. Overall, the ICU survival was 49.6%, whereas the 28-day survival reached 46.9%. The survival rates inside the ICU for the four main viral variants were 54.9%, 50.3%, 39.7% and 50% for the Alpha, Beta, Delta and Omicron variants, respectively. Logistic regressions for outcome revealed that the following parameters were independently associated with ICU survival: wave, SOFA @day1, Remdesivir use, AKI, Sepsis, Enteral Insufficiency, Duration of ICU stay and WBC. Similarly, the parameters affecting the 28-days survival were: duration of stay in ICU, SOFA @day1, WBC, Wave, AKI and Enteral Insufficiency. In this observational cohort study of critically ill COVID-19 patients we report an association between mortality and the wave sequence, SOFA score on admission, the use of Remdesivir, presence of AKI, presence of gastrointestinal failure, sepsis and WBC levels. Strengths of this study are the large number of critically ill COVID-19 patients included, and the comparison of the adjusted mortality rates between pandemic waves within a two year-study period.

Clinical prediction rules for adverse evolution in patients with COVID-19 by the Omicron variant

OBJECTIVE

We identify factors related to SARS-CoV-2 infection linked to hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality and develop clinical prediction rules.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of 380,081 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 1, 2020 to January 9, 2022, including a subsample of 46,402 patients who attended Emergency Departments (EDs) having data on vital signs. For derivation and external validation of the prediction rule, two different periods were considered: before and after emergence of the Omicron variant, respectively. Data collected included sociodemographic data, COVID-19 vaccination status, baseline comorbidities and treatments, other background data and vital signs at triage at EDs. The predictive models for the EDs and the whole samples were developed using multivariate logistic regression models using Lasso penalization.

RESULTS

In the multivariable models, common predictive factors of death among EDs patients were greater age; being male; having no vaccination, dementia; heart failure; liver and kidney disease; hemiplegia or paraplegia; coagulopathy; interstitial pulmonary disease; malignant tumors; use chronic systemic use of steroids, higher temperature, low O2 saturation and altered blood pressure-heart rate. The predictors of an adverse evolution were the same, with the exception of liver disease and the inclusion of cystic fibrosis. Similar predictors were found to be related to hospital admission, including liver disease, arterial hypertension, and basal prescription of immunosuppressants. Similarly, models for the whole sample, without vital signs, are presented.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose risk scales, based on basic information, easily-calculable, high-predictive that also function with the current Omicron variant and may help manage such patients in primary, emergency, and hospital care.

Descriptive assessment of COVID-19 responses and lessons learnt in Cambodia, January 2020 to June 2022

As a member state of the International Health Regulations 2005, Cambodia is continuously strengthening its capacity to respond to health emergencies and prevent the international spread of diseases. Despite this, Cambodia's capacity to prevent, detect and rapidly respond to public health threats remained limited at the onset of the pandemic, as was the case in most countries. This paper describes epidemiological phases, response phases, strategy and lessons learnt in Cambodia between 27 January 2020 and 30 June 2022. We classified epidemiological phases in Cambodia into three phases, in which Cambodia responded using eight measures: (1) detect, isolate/quarantine; (2) face coverings, hand hygiene and physical distancing measures; (3) risk communication and community engagement; (4) school closures; (5) border closures; (6) public event and gathering cancellation; (7) vaccination; and (8) lockdown. The measures corresponded to six strategies: (1) setting up and managing a new response system, (2) containing the spread with early response, (3) strengthening the identification of cases and contacts, (4) strengthening care for patients with COVID-19, (5) boosting vaccination coverage and (6) supporting disadvantaged groups. Thirteen lessons were learnt for future health emergency responses. Findings suggest that Cambodia successfully contained the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the first year and quickly attained high vaccine coverage by the second year of the response. The core of this success was the strong political will and high level of cooperation from the public. However, Cambodia needs to further improve its infrastructure for quarantining and isolating cases and close contacts and laboratory capacity for future health emergencies.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and living conditions in Bamako (Mali): a cross-sectional multistage household survey after the first epidemic wave, 2020

OBJECTIVES

In low-income settings with limited access to diagnosis, COVID-19 information is scarce. In September 2020, after the first COVID-19 wave, Mali reported 3086 confirmed cases and 130 deaths. Most reports originated from Bamako, with 1532 cases and 81 deaths (2.42 million inhabitants). This observed prevalence of 0.06% appeared very low. Our objective was to estimate SARS-CoV-2 infection among inhabitants of Bamako, after the first epidemic wave. We assessed demographic, social and living conditions, health behaviours and knowledges associated with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity.

SETTINGS

We conducted a cross-sectional multistage household survey during September 2020, in three neighbourhoods of the commune VI (Bamako), where 30% of the cases were reported.

PARTICIPANTS

We recruited 1526 inhabitants in 3 areas, that is, 306 households, and 1327 serological results (≥1 years), 220 household questionnaires and collected answers for 962 participants (≥12 years).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We measured serological status, detecting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies in blood sampled. We documented housing conditions and individual health behaviours through questionnaires among participants. We estimated the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths in the population of Bamako using the age and sex distributions.

RESULTS

The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was 16.4% (95% CI 15.1% to 19.1%) after adjusting on the population structure. This suggested that ~400 000 cases and ~2000 deaths could have occurred of which only 0.4% of cases and 5% of deaths were officially reported. Questionnaires analyses suggested strong agreement with washing hands but lower acceptability of movement restrictions (lockdown/curfew), and mask wearing.

CONCLUSIONS

The first wave of SARS-CoV-2 spread broadly in Bamako. Expected fatalities remained limited largely due to the population age structure and the low prevalence of comorbidities. Improving diagnostic capacities to encourage testing and preventive behaviours, and avoiding the spread of false information remain key pillars, regardless of the developed or developing setting.

ETHICS

This study was registered in the registry of the ethics committee of the Faculty of Medicine and Odonto-Stomatology and the Faculty of Pharmacy, Bamako, Mali, under the number: 2020/162/CA/FMOS/FAPH.

SARS-CoV-2 surface and air contamination in an acute healthcare setting during the first and second pandemic waves

BACKGROUND

Surfaces and air in healthcare facilities can be contaminated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Previously, the authors identified SARS-CoV-2 RNA on surfaces and air in their hospital during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic (April 2020).

AIM

To explore whether the profile of SARS-CoV-2 surface and air contamination had changed between April 2020 and January 2021.

METHODS

This was a prospective, cross-sectional, observational study in a multi-site London hospital. In January 2021, surface and air samples were collected from comparable areas to those sampled in April 2020, comprising six clinical areas and a public area. SARS-CoV-2 was detected using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and viral culture. Sampling was also undertaken in two wards with natural ventilation alone. The ability of the prevalent variants at the time of the study to survive on dry surfaces was evaluated.

FINDINGS

No viable virus was recovered from surfaces or air. Five percent (N=14) of 270 surface samples and 4% (N=1) of 27 air samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2, which was significantly lower than in April 2020 [52% (N=114) of 218 surface samples and 48% (N=13) of 27 air samples (P<0.001, Fisher's exact test)]. There was no clear difference in the proportion of surface and air samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA based on the type of ventilation in the ward. All variants tested survived on dry surfaces for >72 h, with a <3-log10 reduction in viable count.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that enhanced infection prevention measures have reduced the burden of SARS-CoV-2 RNA on surfaces and air in healthcare facilities.

Different cytokine and chemokine profiles in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 during the first and second outbreaks from Argentina show no association with clinical comorbidities

Background

COVID-19 severity has been linked to an increased production of inflammatory mediators called "cytokine storm". Available data is mainly restricted to the first international outbreak and reports highly variable results. This study compares demographic and clinical features of patients with COVID-19 from Córdoba, Argentina, during the first two waves of the pandemic and analyzes association between comorbidities and disease outcome with the "cytokine storm", offering added value to the field.

Methods

We investigated serum concentration of thirteen soluble mediators, including cytokines and chemokines, in hospitalized patients with moderate and severe COVID-19, without previous rheumatic and autoimmune diseases, from the central region of Argentina during the first and second infection waves. Samples from healthy controls were also assayed. Clinical and biochemical parameters were collected.

Results

Comparison between the two first COVID-19 waves in Argentina highlighted that patients recruited during the second wave were younger and showed less concurrent comorbidities than those from the first outbreak. We also recognized particularities in the signatures of systemic cytokines and chemokines in patients from both infection waves. We determined that concurrent pre-existing comorbidities did not have contribution to serum concentration of systemic cytokines and chemokines in COVID-19 patients. We also identified immunological and biochemical parameters associated to inflammation which can be used as prognostic markers. Thus, IL-6 concentration, C reactive protein level and platelet count allowed to discriminate between death and discharge in patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 only during the first but not the second wave.

Conclusions

Our data provide information that deepens our understanding of COVID-19 pathogenesis linking demographic features of a COVID-19 cohort with cytokines and chemokines systemic concentration, presence of comorbidities and different disease outcomes. Altogether, our findings provide information not only at local level by delineating inflammatory/anti-inflammatory response of patients but also at international level addressing the impact of comorbidities and the infection wave in the variability of cytokine and chemokine production upon SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Fighting COVID-19 Misinformation through an Online Game Based on the Inoculation Theory: Analyzing the Mediating Effects of Perceived Threat and Persuasion Knowledge

The COVID-19 pandemic was accompanied by the rapid spread of misinformation through social media platforms. This study attempted to develop an online fake news game based on the inoculation theory, applicable to the pandemic context, and aimed at enhancing misinformation discrimination. It also tested whether perceived threat and persuasion knowledge serve as underlying mechanisms of the effects of the intervention on misinformation discrimination. In Study 1, we used online priming to examine the influence of inoculation on misinformation discrimination. In Study 2, we developed an online fake-news-game-based intervention and attempted to validate its effectiveness through a randomized controlled trial while also exploring the mediating roles of perceived threat and persuasion knowledge. In Study 1, brief inoculation information priming significantly enhanced the ability to recognize misinformation (F(2.502) = 8.321, p < 0.001, ηp2 = 0.032). In Study 2, the five-day game-based intervention significantly enhanced the ability to recognize misinformation (F(2.322) = 3.301, p = 0.038, ηp2 = 0.020). The mediation effect of persuasion knowledge was significant (β = 0.025, SE = 0.016, 95% CI = [0.034, 0.075]), while that of perceived threat was not significant. Online interventions based on the inoculation theory are effective in enhancing misinformation discrimination, and one of the underlying mechanisms of this effect lies in its promotion of persuasion knowledge.

Antimicrobial properties of a multi-component alloy

High traffic touch surfaces such as doorknobs, countertops, and handrails can be transmission points for the spread of pathogens, emphasizing the need to develop materials that actively self-sanitize. Metals are frequently used for these surfaces due to their durability, but many metals also possess antimicrobial properties which function through a variety of mechanisms. This work investigates metallic alloys comprised of several metals which individually possess antimicrobial properties, with the target of achieving broad-spectrum, rapid sanitation through synergistic activity. An entropy-motivated stabilization paradigm is proposed to prepare scalable alloys of copper, silver, nickel and cobalt. Using combinatorial sputtering, thin-film alloys were prepared on 100 mm wafers with ≈50% compositional grading of each element across the wafer. The films were then annealed and investigated for alloy stability. Antimicrobial activity testing was performed on both the as-grown alloys and the annealed films using four microorganisms-Phi6, MS2, Bacillus subtilis and Escherichia coli-as surrogates for human viral and bacterial pathogens. Testing showed that after 30 s of contact with some of the test alloys, Phi6, an enveloped, single-stranded RNA bacteriophage that serves as a SARS-CoV-2 surrogate, was reduced up to 6.9 orders of magnitude (> 99.9999%). Additionally, the non-enveloped, double-stranded DNA bacteriophage MS2, and the Gram-negative E. coli and Gram-positive B. subtilis bacterial strains showed a 5.0, 6.4, and 5.7 log reduction in activity after 30, 20 and 10 min, respectively. Antimicrobial activity in the alloy samples showed a strong dependence on the composition, with the log reduction scaling directly with the Cu content. Concentration of Cu by phase separation after annealing improved activity in some of the samples. The results motivate a variety of themes which can be leveraged to design ideal antimicrobial surfaces.

Five consecutive epidemiological waves of COVID-19: a population-based cross-sectional study on characteristics, policies, and health outcome

BACKGROUND

This study was conducted with the intension of providing a more detailed view about the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic. To this aim, characteristics, implemented public health measures, and health outcome of COVID-19 patients during five consecutive waves of the disease were assessed.

METHODS

This study was a population-based cross-sectional analysis of data on adult patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19 during five waves of the disease in Iran. Chi-squared test, One-way ANOVA, and Logistic Regression analysis were applied. A detailed literature review on implemented public health policies was performed by studying published documents and official websites responsible for conveying information about COVID-19.

RESULTS

Data on 328,410 adult patients was analyzed. Main findings indicated that the probability of dying with COVID-19 has increased as the pandemic wore on, showing its highest odd during the third wave (odds ratio: 1.34, CI: 1.283-1.395) and has gradually decreased during the next two waves. The same pattern was observed in the proportion of patients requiring ICU admission (P < 0.001). First wave presented mainly with respiratory symptoms, gastrointestinal complaints were added during the second wave, neurological manifestations with peripheral involvement replaced the gastrointestinal complaints during the third wave, and central nervous system manifestations were added during the fourth and fifth waves. A significant difference in mean age of patients was revealed between the five waves (P < 0.001). Moreover, results showed a significant difference between men and women infected with COVID-19, with men having higher rates of the disease at the beginning. However, as the pandemic progressed the proportion of women gradually increased, and ultimately more women were diagnosed with COVID-19 during the fifth wave. Our observations pointed to the probability that complete lockdowns were the key measures that helped to mitigate the virus spread during the first twenty months of the pandemic in the country.

CONCLUSION

A changing pattern in demographic characteristics, clinical manifestations, and severity of the disease has been revealed as the pandemic unfolded. Reviewing COVID-19-related public health interventions highlighted the importance of immunization and early implementation of restrictive measures as effective strategies for reducing the acute burden of the disease.

Was EU's COVID-19 vaccine procurement strategy irrational? A re-analysis based on cost-effectiveness considerations

AIM

The European Union (EU) has received criticism for being slow to secure coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine contracts in 2020 before the approval of the first COVID-19 vaccine. This study aimed to retrospectively analyze the EU's COVID-19 vaccine procurement strategy. To this end, the study retrospectively determined the minimum vaccine efficacy that made vaccination cost-effective from a societal perspective in Germany before clinical trial announcements in late 2020. The results were compared with the expected vaccine efficacy before the announcements.

METHODS

Two strategies were analyzed: vaccination followed by the complete lifting of mitigation measures and a long-term mitigation strategy. A decision model was constructed using, for example, information on age-specific fatality rates, intensive care unit costs and outcomes, and herd protection thresholds. The base-case time horizon was 5 years. Cost-effectiveness of vaccination was determined in terms of the costs per life-year gained. The value of an additional life-year was borrowed from new, innovative oncological drugs, as cancer is a condition with a perceived threat similar to that of COVID-19.

RESULTS

A vaccine with 50% efficacy against death due to COVID-19 was not clearly cost-effective compared with a long-term mitigation strategy if mitigation measures were planned to be lifted after vaccine rollout. The minimum vaccine efficacy required to achieve cost-effectiveness was 40% in the base case. The sensitivity analysis showed considerable variation around the minimum vaccine efficacy, extending above 50% for some of the input variables.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that vaccine efficacy levels expected before clinical trial announcements did not clearly justify lifting mitigation measures from a cost-effectiveness standpoint. Hence, the EU's sluggish procurement strategy still appeared to be rational at the time of decision making.

Mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients during surges of SARS-CoV-2 alpha (B.1.1.7) and delta (B.1.617.2) variants

The aim of this study was to evaluate the death proportion and death risk of COVID-19 hospitalized patients over time and in different surges of COVID-19. This multi-center observational study was conducted from March 21, 2021 to October 3, 2021 which included the alpha and delta SARS-CoV-2 surges occurred in April and August in Tehran, respectively. The risk of COVID-19 death was compared in different months of admission. A total of 270,624 patients with COVID-19, of whom 6.9% died, were admitted to hospitals in Tehran province. Compared to patients admitted in March, a higher risk of COVID-19 death was observed among patients admitted to the hospital in July (HR 1.28; 95% CI 1.17, 1.40), August (HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.28, 1.52), September (HR 1.37; 95% CI 1.25, 1.50) and October (HR 4.63; 95% CI 2.77, 7.74). The ICU death proportion was 36.8% (95% CI: 35.5, 38.1) in alpha surge and increased significantly to 39.8 (95% CI 38.6, 41.1) in delta surge. The risk of COVID-19 death was significantly higher in delta surge compared to alpha surge (HR 1.22; 95% CI 1.17, 1.27). Delta surge was associated with a higher risk of death compared to alpha surge. High number of hospitalizations, a shortage of hospital beds, ICU spaces and medical supplies, poor nutritional status of hospitalized patients, and lack of the intensivist physicians or specialized nurses in the ICU were factors that contributed to the high mortality rate in the delta surge in Iran.

COVID-19 diverse outcomes: Aggravated reinfection, type I interferons and antibodies

SARS-CoV-2 infection intrigued medicine with diverse outcomes ranging from asymptomatic to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and death. After more than two years of pandemic, reports of reinfection concern researchers and physicists. Here, we will discuss potential mechanisms that can explain reinfections, including the aggravated ones. The major topics of this hypothesis paper are the disbalance between interferon and antibodies responses, HLA heterogeneity among the affected population, and increased proportion of cytotoxic CD4+ T cells polarization in relation to T follicular cells (Tfh) subtypes. These features affect antibody levels and hamper the humoral immunity necessary to prevent or minimize the viral burden in the case of reinfections.

Characteristics and outcomes of SARS-COV 2 critically ill patients after emergence of the variant of concern 20H/501Y.V2: A comparative cohort study

There are currently no data regarding characteristics of critically ill patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant of concern (VOC) 20H/501Y.V2. We therefore aimed to describe changes of characteristics in critically ill patients with Covid-19 between the first and the second wave when viral genome sequencing indicated that VOC was largely dominant in Mayotte Island (Indian Ocean). Consecutive patients with Covid-19 and over 18 years admitted in the unique intensive care unit (ICU) of Mayotte during wave 2 were compared with an historical cohort of patients admitted during wave 1. We performed a LR comparing wave 1 and wave 2 as outcomes. To complete analysis, we built a Random Forest model (RF), that is, a machine learning classification tool- using the same variable set as that of the LR. We included 156 patients, 41 (26.3%) and 115 (73.7%) belonging to the first and second waves respectively. Univariate analysis did not find difference in demographic data or in mortality. Our multivariate LR found that patients in wave 2 had less fever (absence of fever aOR 5.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.89-14.48, p = .001) and a lower simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) (aOR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91-0.99, p = .007) at admission; at 24 hours, the need of invasive mechanical ventilation was higher (aOR 3.49, 95% CI 0.98-12.51, p = .055) and pO2/FiO2 ratio was lower (aOR 0.99, 95 % CI 0.98-0.99, p = .03). Patients in wave 2 had also an increased risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) (aOR 4.64, 95% CI 1.54-13.93, p = .006). Occurrence of VAP was also a key variable to classify patients between wave 1 and wave 2 in the variable importance plot of the RF model. Our data suggested that VOC 20H/501Y.V2 could be associated with a higher severity of respiratory failure at admission and a higher risk for developing VAP. We hypothesized that the expected gain in survival brought by recent improvements in critical care management could have been mitigated by increased transmissibility of the new lineage leading to admission of more severe patients. The immunological role of VOC 20H/501Y.V2 in the propensity for VAP requires further investigations.

Empirical investigation of the impact of overload on the discontinuous usage intentions of short video users: a stressor-strain-outcome perspective

Purpose

This study focuses on perceived overload from environmental stimuli and individual psychology and behavioral interactions. It constructs a theoretical model with overload as the key stressor based on the stressor-strain-outcome (SSO) model. The authors argue that system feature overload (SFO), information overload, and social overload lead to two psychological strains: fear of missing out (FoMO) and fatigue among users of short video platforms, affecting their discontinuous usage intentions.

Design/methodology/approach

To test the hypotheses, the authors conducted a questionnaire survey on 412 users' short video platform usage and empirically tested the constructed model using the research tool SmartPLS 3.3.2.

Findings

The results of data analysis showed that most of the hypotheses were supported. Specifically, system feature overload, information overload and social overload all positively affected FoMO. However, SFO and information overload significantly affected fatigue. There was no significant relationship between social overload and fatigue. In addition, both FoMO and fatigue negatively influenced users' discontinuous usage intentions.

Originality/value

The current research on user behavior in information systems tends to focus on the influence in the positive direction and less on the negative direction. The research on discontinuous usage intention (DUI) is a very new research topic. This research studies the influencing factors of users' discontinuous behavior from the perspective of perceptual overload. It provides a unique view for future short video platform user behavior research, with significant theoretical contributions and essential practice for short video platform operators to improve services.

Stressors and uplifts of confinement due to covid‐19: A longitudinal study on mental health in a sample of academic and administrative university staff in Spain

The rapid spread of COVID-19 caused many countries to decide to enter full lockdown, a circumstance that impacted all aspects of life, including mental health. The present longitudinal study aimed to analyse how stressors and uplifts of confinement were linked to psychological symptoms at three different time points: during the full lockdown (wave 1), after the gradual lifting of restrictions (wave 2) and after confinement (wave 3). The sample was made up by one hundred and twenty academic and administrative staff from a big University in Spain, they all completed an online survey. Results showed that psychological status did not change over time, but a significant interindividual variability was found throughout. Some stressors were only linked to symptoms at wave 1, but others maintained their associations during waves 2 and 3. Uplifts were, for the most part, inversely (and exclusively) linked to symptoms at wave 1. However, some of them, although enjoyable, were paradoxically linked to worse mental health at wave 1, and even at waves 2 and 3. These findings highlight the importance of providing preventive psychological strategies for mental distress before, during and after confinement.

Challenges in Implementing the National Health Response to COVID-19 in Senegal

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa, many epidemiological or anthropological studies have been published. However, few studies have yet been conducted to understand the implementation of State interventions to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. In Senegal, the national response plan was planned before the country experienced its first official case of COVID-19 on 2 March 2020. This qualitative study, conducted in March and April 2021, based on 189 interviews, aims to understand how the national response has been implemented in several regions of Senegal. Implementation of the response to the pandemic was favoured by good preparation, capacity to adapt, responsiveness of health actors, and commitment for both the political and religious authorities. The implementation response was confronted by several constraining factors such as the coercive approach, the challenges of coordinating actors, and the lack of intersectoral response. The central level has sometimes used reflexivity processes to adapt its response, but it has remained highly politicized, centralized, directive, and with little involvement of civil society. In Senegal, the response to the pandemic has been implemented in a relatively political and directive, even coercive manner, without necessarily considering prior knowledge and the need to adapt it to local contexts and to involve civil society and community actors in the process.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43477-022-00053-4.

Maternal and newborn healthcare providers' work-related experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic, and their physical, psychological, and economic impacts: Findings from a global online survey

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have substantial impacts on health systems globally. This study describes experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic, and physical, psychological and economic impacts among maternal and newborn healthcare providers. We conducted a global online cross-sectional survey of maternal and newborn healthcare providers. Data collected between July and December 2020 included demographic characteristics, work-related experiences, and physical, psychological, and economic impacts of COVID-19. Descriptive statistics of quantitative data and content analysis of qualitative data were conducted. Findings were disaggregated by country income-level. We analysed responses from 1,191 maternal and newborn healthcare providers from 77 countries: middle-income 66%, high-income 27%, and low-income 7%. Most common cadres were nurses (31%), midwives/nurse-midwives (25%), and obstetricians/gynaecologists (21%). Quantitative and qualitative findings showed that 28% of respondents reported decreased workplace staffing levels following changes in staff-rotation (53%) and staff self-isolating after exposure to SARS-CoV-2 (35%); this led to spending less time with patients, possibly compromising care quality. Reported insufficient access to personal protective equipment (PPE) ranged from 12% for gloves to 32% for N-95 masks. Nonetheless, wearing PPE was tiresome, time-consuming, and presented potential communication barriers with patients. 58% of respondents reported higher stress levels, mainly related to lack of access to information or to rapidly changing guidelines. Respondents noted a negative financial impact-a decrease in income (70% among respondents from low-income countries) concurrently with increased personal expenditures (medical supplies, transportation, and PPE). Negative physical, psychological and economic impacts of COVID-19 on maternal and newborn healthcare providers were ongoing throughout 2020, especially in low-income countries. This can have severe consequences for provision and quality of essential care. There is need to increase focus on the implementation of interventions aiming to support healthcare providers, particularly those in low- and middle-income countries to protect essential health services from disruption.

Qualitative study exploring lessons from Liberia and the UK for building a people-centred resilient health systems response to COVID-19

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 has tested the resilience of health systems globally and exposed existing strengths and weaknesses. We sought to understand health systems COVID-19 adaptations and decision making in Liberia and Merseyside, UK.

METHODS

We used a people-centred approach to carry out qualitative interviews with 24 health decision-makers at national and county level in Liberia and 42 actors at county and hospital level in the UK (Merseyside). We explored health systems' decision-making processes and capacity to adapt and continue essential service delivery in response to COVID-19 in both contexts.

RESULTS

Study respondents in Liberia and Merseyside had similar experiences in responding to COVID-19, despite significant differences in health systems context, and there is an opportunity for multidirectional learning between the global south and north. The need for early preparedness; strong community engagement; clear communication within the health system and health service delivery adaptations for essential health services emerged strongly in both settings. We found the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) principles to have value as a framework for reviewing health systems changes, across settings, in response to a shock such as a pandemic. In addition to the eight original principles, we expanded to include two additional principles: (1) the need for functional structures and mechanisms for preparation and (2) adaptable governance and leadership structures to facilitate timely decision making and response coordination. We find the use of a people-centred approach also has value to prompt policy-makers to consider the acceptance of service adaptations by patients and health workers, and to continue the provision of 'routine services' for individuals during health systems shocks.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights the importance of a people-centred approach, placing the person at the centre of the health system, and value in applying and adapting the FCDO principles across diverse settings.

COVID-19 and Multiple Inequalities The Case of a Coastal Community in Kerala

Despite the overall achievements, Kerala's handling of its first case of community transmission in the coastal village of Poonthura came under severe criticism. In this article, the potential pathways to the resistance raised by the fisherfolk in Poonthura are explored, thereby placing their responses as historically and politically embedded ones.

The Importance of Behavioral and Native Factors on COVID-19 Infection and Severity: Insights from a Preliminary Cross-Sectional Study

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on a global scale. Understanding the innate and lifestyle-related factors influencing the rate and severity of COVID-19 is important for making evidence-based recommendations. This cross-sectional study aims at establishing a potential relationship between human characteristics and vulnerability/resistance to SARS-CoV-2. We hypothesize that the impact of the virus is not the same due to cultural and ethnic differences. A cross-sectional study was performed using an online questionnaire. The methodology included the development of a multi-language survey, expert evaluation, and data analysis. Data were collected using a 13-item pre-tested questionnaire based on a literature review between 9 December 2020 and 21 July 2021. Data were statistically analyzed using logistic regression. For a total of 1125 respondents, 332 (29.5%) were COVID-19 positive; among them, 130 (11.5%) required home-based treatment, and 14 (1.2%) intensive care. The significant and most influential factors on infection included age, physical activity, and health status (p < 0.05), i.e., better physical activity and better health status significantly reduced the possibility of infection, while older age significantly increased it. The severity of infection was negatively associated with the acceptance (adherence and respect) of preventive measures and positively associated with tobacco (p < 0.05), i.e., smoking regularly significantly increases the severity of COVID-19 infection. This suggests the importance of behavioral factors compared to innate ones. Apparently, individual behavior is mainly responsible for the spread of the virus. Therefore, adopting a healthy lifestyle and scrupulously observing preventive measures, including vaccination, would greatly limit the probability of infection and prevent the development of severe COVID-19.

Attributes of national governance for an effective response to public health emergencies: Lessons from the response to the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic takes variable shapes and forms in different regions and countries. This variability is explained by several factors, including the governance of the epidemic. We aimed to identify the key attributes of governance in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and gain lessons for an effective response to public health emergencies.

Methods

We employed a mixed-methods design. We mapped the attributes of governance from well-established governance frameworks. A negative binomial regression was conducted to identify the effect of the established governance measures on the epidemiology of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used publicly available data on COVID-19 cases and deaths in countries around the world. Document review was conducted to identify the key approaches and attributes of governance during the pre-vaccine era of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a thematic analysis to identify key attributes for effective governance.

Results

The established governance measures, including generation of intelligence, strategic direction, regulation, partnership, accountability, transparency, rule of law, control of corruption, responsiveness, effectiveness, efficiency, equity, ethics, and inclusiveness, are necessary but not sufficient to effectively respond to and contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Additional attributes of national governance were identified: 1) agile, adaptive, and transformative governance; 2) collective (collaborative, inclusive, cooperative, accountable, and transparent) governance; 3) multi-level governance; 4) smart and ethical governance: sensible, pragmatic, evidence-based, political, learner, and ethical.

Conclusions

The current governance frameworks and their attributes are not adequate to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that countries need agile, adaptable, and transformational, collaborative, multi-level, smart and ethical governance to effectively respond to emerging and re-emerging public health threats. In addition, an effective response to public health emergencies depends not only on national governance but also on global governance. Hence, global health governance should be urgently renewed through a paradigm shift towards universal health coverage and health security to all populations and in all countries. This requires enhanced and consistent global health diplomacy based on knowledge, solidarity, and negotiation.

Electrostatic Spray Disinfection Using Nano-Engineered Solution on Frequently Touched Surfaces in Indoor and Outdoor Environments

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in high demand for disinfection technologies. However, the corresponding spray technologies are still not completely optimized for disinfection purposes. There are important problems, like the irregular coverage and dripping of disinfectant solutions on hard and vertical surfaces. In this study, we highlight two major points. Firstly, we discuss the effectiveness of the electrostatic spray deposition (ESD) of nanoparticle-based disinfectant solutions for systematic and long-lasting disinfection. Secondly, we show that, based on the type of material of the substrate, the effectiveness of ESD varies. Accordingly, 12 frequently touched surface materials were sprayed using a range of electrostatic spray system parameters, including ion generator voltage, nozzle spray size and distance of spray. It was observed that for most cases, the surfaces become completely covered with the nanoparticles within 10 s. Acrylic, Teflon, PVC, and polypropylene surfaces show a distinct effect of ESD and non-ESD sprays. The nanoparticles form a uniform layer with better surface coverage in case of electrostatic deposition. Quantitative variations and correlations show that 1.5 feet of working distance, an 80 μm spray nozzle diameter and an ion generator voltage of 3-7 kV ensures a DEF (differential electric field) that corresponds to an optimized charge-to-mass ratio, ensuring efficient coverage of nanoparticles.

From Physical Distancing to Social Loneliness among Gay Men and Other Men Having Sex with Men in Belgium: Examining the Disruption of the Social Network and Social Support Structures

Since the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, levels of loneliness have increased among the general population and especially among sexual minorities, such as gay men and other men who have sex with men, who already experienced more problems with social isolation before the pandemic. We analyzed how the disruption of the social network and social support structures by containment measures impact loneliness among gay and other men having sex with men. Our sample consisted of gay and other men having sex with men who had in person communication with family as well as heterosexual friends and homosexual friends before the lockdown (N = 461). Multivariate regression analyses were performed with social provisions (social interaction and reliable alliance) and loneliness as dependent variables. A change from in-person communication with gay peers before the pandemic to remote-only or no communication with gay peers during the pandemic, mediated by change in social integration, was related to an increased feeling of loneliness during the pandemic compared with before the pandemic. There were some unexpected findings, which should be interpreted in the specific social context of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. On average, social integration and reliable alliance among MSM increased during the lockdown, even though in-person communication decreased and loneliness increased. Our results show it is critical to maintain a view of social support and social loneliness as lodged within larger social and cultural contexts that ultimately shape the mechanisms behind them.

Evaluation of models for prognosing mortality in critical care patients with COVID-19: First- and second-wave data from a German university hospital

Background

In a previous study, we had investigated the intensive care course of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the first wave in Germany by calculating models for prognosticating in-hospital death with univariable and multivariable regression analysis. This study analyzed if these models were also applicable to patients with COVID-19 in the second wave.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included 98 critical care patients with COVID-19, who had been treated at the University Medical Center Regensburg, Germany, between October 2020 and February 2021. Data collected for each patient included vital signs, dosage of catecholamines, analgosedation, anticoagulation, and antithrombotic medication, diagnostic blood tests, treatment with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), intensive care scores, ventilator therapy, and pulmonary gas exchange. Using these data, expected mortality was calculated by means of the originally developed mathematical models, thereby testing the models for their applicability to patients in the second wave.

Results

Mortality in the second-wave cohort did not significantly differ from that in the first-wave cohort (41.8% vs. 32.2%, p = 0.151). As in our previous study, individual parameters such as pH of blood or mean arterial pressure (MAP) differed significantly between survivors and non-survivors. In contrast to our previous study, however, survivors and non-survivors in this study showed significant or even highly significant differences in pulmonary gas exchange and ventilator therapy (e.g. mean and minimum values for oxygen saturation and partial pressure of oxygen, mean values for the fraction of inspired oxygen, positive expiratory pressure, tidal volume, and oxygenation ratio). ECMO therapy was more frequently administered than in the first-wave cohort. Calculations of expected mortality by means of the originally developed univariable and multivariable models showed that the use of simple cut-off values for pH, MAP, troponin, or combinations of these parameters resulted in correctly estimated outcome in approximately 75% of patients without ECMO therapy.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Misconceptions About COVID-19 Prevention Practices Among High and Preparatory School Students in Dessie City, Ethiopia

Background

Knowledge, attitudes, and misconceptions of students about COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) prevention have been examined in relatively few studies. This study aimed to assess the knowledge, attitudes and misconceptions about COVID-19 prevention practices among high and preparatory school (grades 9 to 12) students in Dessie City, Ethiopia.

Methods

This school-based cross-sectional study used a pre-tested structured questionnaire and direct observations from March 1 to 30, 2021 in 5 high and preparatory school students in Dessie City, Ethiopia. The sample size was proportionally allocated in each school based on the number of students registered in the first semester, stratified by grade level, and section. Data analysis employed 3 binary logistic regression models (Models I, II and III) with 95% CI (confidence interval). Bivariate analysis (crude odds ratio [COR]) and multivariable analysis (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]) were used. Variables with P-values <0.3 in the bivariate analysis were retained in the multivariable logistic regression analysis for each model. Variables with significance levels P<0.05 in the multivariable analysis of each model was identified as significant factors.

Results

The levels of good knowledge, positive attitudes, and low misconceptions were 74.8%, 60.2%, and 56.1%, respectively. After adjusting for the covariates, grade 12, positive attitude and living in households with more than 5 members were identified as factors significantly associated with good knowledge about COVID-19 prevention practices. Good knowledge of COVID-19 prevention practices, household size >5, infection prevention and control (IPC) training, and low level of misconceptions were factors significantly associated with positive attitudes, whereas students age ≥18 years, positive attitude, and IPC training were factors significantly associated with less misconceptions about COVID-19 prevention measures.

Conclusion

The prevalence of good knowledge, positive attitude, and low level of misconceptions of prevention practices for COVID-19 among students was relatively low. Therefore, Dessie City Health and Education Department and each high and preparatory school should implement continuous monitoring programs to ensure high prevention awareness and promote preventive behavior towards COVID-19.

Value-based pricing of a COVID-19 vaccine

AIM

The purpose of this study is to determine the value-based price of a COVID-19 vaccine from a societal perspective in Germany.

METHODS

A decision model was constructed using, e.g., information on age-specific fatality rates, intensive care unit (ICU) costs and outcomes, and the full vaccination rate. Three strategies were analysed: vaccination (with 95 % and 50 % efficacy against death), a mitigation strategy, and no intervention. The base-case time horizon was 5 years. The value of a vaccine includes savings from avoiding COVID-19 mitigation measures and productivity loss, as well as health benefits from preventing COVID-19 related mortality. The value of an additional life year was borrowed from new, innovative oncological drugs, as cancer reflects a condition with a similar morbidity and mortality burden in the general population in the short term as COVID-19.

RESULTS

A vaccine with a 95 % efficacy dominates the mitigation strategy strictly. The value-based price (€6,431) is thus determined by the comparison between vaccination and no intervention. The price is particularly sensitive to the full vaccination rate and the duration of vaccine protection. In contrast, the value of a vaccine with 50 % efficacy is more ambiguous.

CONCLUSION

This study yields a value-based price for a COVID-19 vaccine with 95 % efficacy, which is considerably greater than the purchasing price.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Chronic Disease Care in India, China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Vietnam

This study aims to provide evidence on how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted chronic disease care in diverse settings across Asia. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted to assess the health, social, and economic consequences of the pandemic in India, China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Vietnam using standardized questionnaires. Overall, 5672 participants with chronic conditions were recruited from five countries. The mean age of the participants ranged from 55.9 to 69.3 years. A worsened economic status during the COVID-19 pandemic was reported by 19% to 59% of the study participants. Increased difficulty in accessing care was reported by 8% to 24% of participants, except Vietnam: 1.6%. The worsening of diabetes symptoms was reported by 5.6% to 14.6% of participants, except Vietnam: 3%. In multivariable regression analyses, increasing age, female participants, and worsened economic status were suggestive of increased difficulty in access to care, but these associations mostly did not reach statistical significance. In India and China, rural residence, worsened economic status and self-reported hypertension were statistically significantly associated with increased difficulty in access to care or worsening of diabetes symptoms. These findings suggest that the pandemic disproportionately affected marginalized and rural populations in Asia, negatively affecting population health beyond those directly suffering from COVID-19.

Complications Post-COVID-19 and Risk Factors among Patients after Six Months of a SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study

In October 2020, we conducted a population-based prospective cohort study to determine post-COVID-19 complications, recovery, return to usual health, and associated risk factors in 536 cases of COVID-19 outbreak in Borriana (Spain) by administering an epidemiological questionnaire via phone interviews. A total of 484 patients participated (90.3%), age mean 37.2 ± 17.1 years, and 301 females (62.2%). Mild illness was the most common COVID-19 manifestation. After six months, 160 patients (33.1%) suffered at least one complication post-COVID-19, and 47 (29.4%) of them sought medical assistance. The most frequent persistent symptoms were hair loss, fatigue, loss of smell or taste, and headache. Risk factors associated with a complication were female sex (adjusted relative risk, [aRR] = 1.93 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.41-2.65), age 35 years and above (aRR = 1.50 95% CI 1.14-1.99), B blood group (aRR = 1.51 95% CI 1.04-2.16), current smoker (RR = 1.61 95% CI 1.02-2.54), and at least a COVID-19 exposure (aRR = 2.13 95% CI 1.11-4.09). Male sex, age younger than 35 years, and low COVID-19 exposures were associated with better recovery and return to usual health. A third of patients presented persistent symptoms compatible with the long-COVID-19 syndrome. In conclusion, an active medical follow-up of post-COVID-19 patients must be implemented.

Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons towards a more effective response to public health emergencies

BACKGROUND

The pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a timely reminder of the nature and impact of Public Health Emergencies of International Concern. As of 12 January 2022, there were over 314 million cases and over 5.5 million deaths notified since the start of the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic takes variable shapes and forms, in terms of cases and deaths, in different regions and countries of the world. The objective of this study is to analyse the variable expression of COVID-19 pandemic so that lessons can be learned towards an effective public health emergency response.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed-methods study to understand the heterogeneity of cases and deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Correlation analysis and scatter plot were employed for the quantitative data. We used Spearman's correlation analysis to determine relationship strength between cases and deaths and socio-economic and health systems. We organized qualitative information from the literature and conducted a thematic analysis to recognize patterns of cases and deaths and explain the findings from the quantitative data.

RESULTS

We have found that regions and countries with high human development index have higher cases and deaths per million population due to COVID-19. This is due to international connectedness and mobility of their population related to trade and tourism, and their vulnerability related to older populations and higher rates of non-communicable diseases. We have also identified that the burden of the pandemic is also variable among high- and middle-income countries due to differences in the governance of the pandemic, fragmentation of health systems, and socio-economic inequities.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates that every country remains vulnerable to public health emergencies. The aspiration towards a healthier and safer society requires that countries develop and implement a coherent and context-specific national strategy, improve governance of public health emergencies, build the capacity of their (public) health systems, minimize fragmentation, and tackle upstream structural issues, including socio-economic inequities. This is possible through a primary health care approach, which ensures provision of universal and equitable promotive, preventive and curative services, through whole-of-government and whole-of-society approaches.

Individuals With SARS-CoV-2 Infection During the First and Second Waves in Catalonia, Spain: Retrospective Observational Study Using Daily Updated Data

BACKGROUND

A description of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection comparing the first and second waves could help adapt health services to manage this highly transmissible infection.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to describe the epidemiology of individuals with suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the characteristics of patients with a positive test comparing the first and second waves in Catalonia, Spain.

METHODS

This study had 2 stages. First, we analyzed daily updated data on SARS-CoV-2 infection in individuals from Girona (Catalonia). Second, we compared 2 retrospective cohorts of patients with a positive reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction or rapid antigen test for SARS-CoV-2. The severity of patients with a positive test was defined by their admission to hospital, admission to intermediate respiratory care, admission to the intensive care unit, or death. The first wave was from March 1, 2020, to June 24, 2020, and the second wave was from June 25, 2020, to December 8, 2020.

RESULTS

The numbers of tests and cases were lower in the first wave than in the second wave (26,096 tests and 3140 cases in the first wave versus 140,332 tests and 11,800 cases in the second wave), but the percentage of positive results was higher in the first wave than in the second wave (12.0% versus 8.4%). Among individuals with a positive diagnostic test, 818 needed hospitalization in the first wave and 680 in the second; however, the percentage of hospitalized individuals was higher in the first wave than in the second wave (26.1% versus 5.8%). The group that was not admitted to hospital included older people and those with a higher percentage of comorbidities in the first wave, whereas the characteristics of the groups admitted to hospital were more alike.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening systems for SARS-CoV-2 infection were scarce during the first wave, but were more adequate during the second wave, reflecting the usefulness of surveillance systems to detect a high number of asymptomatic infected individuals and their contacts, to help control this pandemic. The characteristics of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the first and second waves differed substantially; individuals in the first wave were older and had a worse health condition.

Acceptability of government measures against COVID-19 pandemic in Senegal: A mixed methods study

While the first case of COVID-19 was declared on March 2 2020 in Senegal, the government banned the attendance of places of worship on 14 March, as a first measure. On March 23, it introduced a curfew, a ban on movement between regions, and the closure of markets. The objective of this study is to measure and understand the acceptability of these four governmental measures as well as the level of public trust in the state to fight the pandemic. We carried out a mixed-method research. The acceptability variables were defined using the theoretical framework of acceptability (TFA). At the quantitative level, we carried out a telephone survey (June/July 2020) at the national level (n = 813) with a sampling strategy by marginal quotas. We conducted a qualitative survey (August/September 2020) with a nested sample (n = 30). The results show a relatively high acceptability of the measures but a heterogeneity of responses. People considered curfews to be much more important (85.7% [83.2%; 88.0%]) than the closure of places of worship (55.4%; [51.9%; 58.7%]), which is least in line with the values and positive affective attitude. Several positive unintended effects of the curfew were stated (security and social/family cohesion). People over the age of 60 have more confidence in the government to fight the pandemic than people under the age of 25, although not significant (7.72 ± 3.12 vs. 7.07 ± 3.11, p = 0.1); and they are more in favour of the closure of places of worship. The more regions are affected by the pandemic, the less confidence respondents report in the government and the less they perceive the measures as effective. The results confirm the importance of government communication and trust in the state to strengthen the acceptability of pandemic measures. Important differences in acceptability show the need to adapt measures and their explanations, instead of unqualified universal action.

Is there impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on steroidogenesis and fertility?

In December of 2019, several cases of unknown atypical respiratory diseases emerged in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China. After preliminary research, it was stated that the disease is transmittable between humans and was named COVID-19. Over the course of next months, it spread all over the world by air and sea transport and caused a global pandemic which affects life of everyone now-a-days. A large number of countries, have since been forced to take precautions such as curfews, lockdowns, wearing facemasks etc. Even with vaccines being produced in mass numbers, lack of targeted therapy continues to be a major problem. According to studies so far it seems that elderly people are more vulnerable to severe symptoms while children tend to by asymptomatic or have milder form the disease. In our review, we focused on gathering data about the virus itself, its characteristics, paths of transmission, and its effect on hormone production and secretion. In such, there is insufficient information in the literature worldwide, especially the ones that focus on the effect of COVID-19 on individual organs systems within the human body. Hence, the present evidence-based study focused on the possible effects of COVID-19 on adrenal gland and gonads i.e. on the process of steroidogenesis and fertility.

Mortality comparison between the first and second/third waves among 3,795 critical COVID-19 patients with pneumonia admitted to the ICU: A multicentre retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

It is unclear whether the changes in critical care throughout the pandemic have improved the outcomes in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients admitted to the intensive care units (ICUs).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study in adults with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to 73 ICUs from Spain, Andorra and Ireland between February 2020 and March 2021. The first wave corresponded with the period from February 2020 to June 2020, whereas the second/third waves occurred from July 2020 to March 2021. The primary outcome was ICU mortality between study periods. Mortality predictors and differences in mortality between COVID-19 waves were identified using logistic regression.

FINDINGS

As of March 2021, the participating ICUs had included 3795 COVID-19 pneumonia patients, 2479 (65·3%) and 1316 (34·7%) belonging to the first and second/third waves, respectively. Illness severity scores predicting mortality were lower in the second/third waves compared with the first wave according with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system (median APACHE II score 12 [IQR 9-16] vs 14 [IQR 10-19]) and the organ failure assessment score (median SOFA 4 [3-6] vs 5 [3-7], p<0·001). The need of invasive mechanical ventilation was high (76·1%) during the whole study period. However, a significant increase in the use of high flow nasal cannula (48·7% vs 18·2%, p<0·001) was found in the second/third waves compared with the first surge. Significant changes on treatments prescribed were also observed, highlighting the remarkable increase on the use of corticosteroids to up to 95.9% in the second/third waves. A significant reduction on the use of tocilizumab was found during the study (first wave 28·9% vs second/third waves 6·2%, p<0·001), and a negligible administration of lopinavir/ritonavir, hydroxychloroquine, and interferon during the second/third waves compared with the first wave. Overall ICU mortality was 30·7% (n = 1166), without significant differences between study periods (first wave 31·7% vs second/third waves 28·8%, p = 0·06). No significant differences were found in ICU mortality between waves according to age subsets except for the subgroup of 61-75 years of age, in whom a reduced unadjusted ICU mortality was observed in the second/third waves (first 38·7% vs second/third 34·0%, p = 0·048). Non-survivors were older, with higher severity of the disease, had more comorbidities, and developed more complications. After adjusting for confounding factors through a multivariable analysis, no significant association was found between the COVID-19 waves and mortality (OR 0·81, 95% CI 0·64-1·03; p = 0·09). Ventilator-associated pneumonia rate increased significantly during the second/third waves and it was independently associated with ICU mortality (OR 1·48, 95% CI 1·19-1·85, p<0·001). Nevertheless, a significant reduction both in the ICU and hospital length of stay in survivors was observed during the second/third waves.

INTERPRETATION

Despite substantial changes on supportive care and management, we did not find significant improvement on case-fatality rates among critical COVID-19 pneumonia patients.

FUNDING

Ricardo Barri Casanovas Foundation (RBCF2020) and SEMICYUC.

COVID-19 vaccine equity: a health systems and policy perspective

Introduction

The global COVID-19 vaccine rollout has highlighted inequities in the accessibility of countries to COVID-19 vaccines. Populations in low- and middle-income countries have found it difficult to have access to COVID-19 vaccines.

Areas covered

This perspective provides analyses on historical and contemporary policy trends of vaccine development and immunization programs, including the current COVID-19 vaccination drive, and governance challenges. Moreover, we also provide a comparative health system analysis of the COVID-19 vaccine deployment in some countries from different continents. It recommends that the international Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator (ACT-A) partnership requires a strong governance mechanism and urgent financial investment.

Expert opinion

All WHO member states should agree on technology transfer and voluntary license-sharing via a commonly governed technology access pool and supported by a just Intellectual Property regime. Contextualized, dynamic understandings and country-specific versions of health systems strengthening are needed to improve vaccine equity in a sustainable matter.

Drivers of the third wave of COVID-19 in Zimbabwe and challenges for control: perspectives and recommendations

Since the beginning of June 2021, Zimbabwe entered into a harsh third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw an increase in the cumulative number of cases from approximately 38,000 to 120,000 in just two months. This exponential case rise was accompanied by an increase in the absolute number of case fatalities, with a corresponding strain on the public health sector. To effectively inform public health responses, policy and strategy to deal with the current wave and prepare for further waves, we discuss the drivers and challenges of control for this current wave and future waves, and offer practical recommendations. Vaccination will be the most important public health intervention to deal with the spread, morbidity and mortality of COVID-19, therefore, efforts to fight vaccine hesitancy and build vaccine confidence and availability will be critical. Similarly, it will be important to build public health sector capacity and resilience to adequately deal with large-scale outbreaks and absorb the shock waves associated with such. Resuscitating and building the economy is an indispensable component of protecting public health. Therefore, collaborative efforts from relevant public health stakeholders, economists, politicians and other players are required to effectively coordinate the necessary responses and formulate the right policies and strategies.

Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Transmission in Kenya: A Model with Reinfection Transmission Mechanism

In this study we propose a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mathematical model that stratifies infectious subpopulations into: infectious asymptomatic individuals, symptomatic infectious individuals who manifest mild symptoms and symptomatic individuals with severe symptoms. In light of the recent revelation that reinfection by COVID-19 is possible, the proposed model attempt to investigate how reinfection with COVID-19 will alter the future dynamics of the recent unfolding pandemic. Fitting the mathematical model on the Kenya COVID-19 dataset, model parameter values were obtained and used to conduct numerical simulations. Numerical results suggest that reinfection of recovered individuals who have lost their protective immunity will create a large pool of asymptomatic infectious individuals which will ultimately increase symptomatic individuals with mild symptoms and symptomatic individuals with severe symptoms (critically ill) needing urgent medical attention. The model suggests that reinfection with COVID-19 will lead to an increase in cumulative reported deaths. Comparison of the impact of non pharmaceutical interventions on curbing COVID19 proliferation suggests that wearing face masks profoundly reduce COVID-19 prevalence than maintaining social/physical distance. Further, numerical findings reveal that increasing detection rate of asymptomatic cases via contact tracing, testing and isolating them can drastically reduce COVID-19 surge, in particular individuals who are critically ill and require admission into intensive care.

Evidence Gaps and Challenges in the Fight Against COVID-19 in Africa: Scoping Review of the Ethiopian Experience

BACKGROUND

Ethiopia, like many African countries, took immediate actions to contain the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak and its impacts. However, the pandemic control measures were not guided by robust local evidence and not tailored to national contexts. In this review, we aimed to evaluate the evidence gaps and challenges of COVID-19 control measures in Ethiopia during the early months of the pandemic.

DESIGN

Scoping Review.

DATA SOURCE

Searches were conducted in PubMed, LitCovid, Web of Sciences, Embase, MedRx, ChemRxiv, BioRx, and Google Scholar.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Peer-reviewed or pre-print original research articles on COVID-19 from Ethiopia during a period of January 1, 2020 and October 10, 2020 were included in this review.

RESULTS

Of 573 articles found, 64 were eligible for inclusion. However, only 25 of them were peer-reviewed; 78% (50/64) were based on cross-sectional descriptive studies. Most of the studies focused on human behavior and healthcare system; only 13 articles addressed epidemiology and clinical spectrum of COVID-19. The studies have revealed a good level of awareness and a favorable attitude by community and healthcare workers (HCWs) towards COVID-19 and its control. However, the practices of infection prevention were found to be low among HCWs and the community. The outbreak unfolded at a slower rate than initially feared but the impact of the counter measures against COVID-19 on the delivery of essential healthcare services was felt more than the direct impact of the pandemic. Moreover, the actions taken by the country did not appear to be tailored to the pattern of the outbreak and existing local evidence. The overall number of published COVID-19-related scientific articles from Ethiopia during the review period was found to be limited.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 control in Ethiopia was challenged by lack of robust local scientific evidence, and the pandemic control measures were not adapted to local context and the outbreak patterns. Thus, Ethiopia and other African countries should design culturally sensitive and locally acceptable public health interventions for COVID-19 and potential future outbreaks based on locally generated scientific evidence.