Impact of war on the dynamics of COVID-19 in Ukraine

Model-informed optimal allocation of limited resources to mitigate infectious disease outbreaks in societies at war

Infectious diseases thrive in war-torn societies. The recent sharp increase in human conflict and war thus requires the development of disease mitigation tools that account for the specifics of war, such as the scarcity of important public health resources. We developed a compartmental, differential equation-based disease model that considers key social, war and disease mechanisms, such as gender homophily and the replacement of soldiers. This model enables the identification of optimal allocation strategies that, given limited resources required for treating infected individuals, minimize disease burden, assessed by total mortality and final epidemic size. A comprehensive model analysis reveals that the level of resource scarcity fundamentally affects the optimal allocation. Desynchronization of the epidemic peaks among several population subgroups emerges as a desirable principle since it reduces disease spread between different subgroups. Further, the level of preferential mixing among people of the same gender, gender homophily, proves to strongly affect disease dynamics and optimal treatment allocation strategies, highlighting the importance of accurately accounting for heterogeneous mixing patterns. Altogether, the findings help answer a timely question: how can infectious diseases be best controlled in societies at war? The developed model can be easily extended to specific diseases, countries and interventions.

Unmasking the Pandemic's Dark Side: Exploring the Roles of Stress, Emotions, and Alcohol Use in Violent Behavior Across Six Countries

We use international survey data recently collected among adults in six countries (Ukraine, Guatemala, Pakistan, the Netherlands, Denmark, and the United States) to examine the global variations in interpersonal violent behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that pandemic-related stress is significantly associated with violent behavior in most countries. Depression emerges as a significant predictor of violence across all countries and as a mediator between pandemic stress and violent behavior in multiple* contexts. On the other hand, negative affect and alcohol use predict violent behavior only in non-Western contexts. We provide policy implications focused on prevention and reduction of violence cross-nationally during public health crises.

Global trends in COVID-19 incidence and case fatality rates (2019-2023): a retrospective analysis

Objectives

Analyzing and comparing COVID-19 infection and case-fatality rates across different regions can help improve our response to future pandemics.

Methods

We used public data from the WHO to calculate and compare the COVID-19 infection and case-fatality rates in different continents and income levels from 2019 to 2023.

Results

The Global prevalence of COVID-19 increased from 0.011 to 0.098, while case fatality rates declined from 0.024 to 0.009. Europe reported the highest cumulative infection rate (0.326), with Africa showing the lowest (0.011). Conversely, Africa experienced the highest cumulative case fatality rates (0.020), with Oceania the lowest (0.002). Infection rates in Asia showed a steady increase in contrast to other continents which observed initial rises followed by decreases. A correlation between economic status and infection rates was identified; high-income countries had the highest cumulative infection rate (0.353) and lowest case fatality rate (0.006). Low-income countries showed low cumulative infection rates (0.006) but the highest case fatality rate (0.016). Initially, high and upper-middle-income countries experienced elevated initial infection and case fatality rates, which subsequently underwent significant reductions.

Conclusions

COVID-19 rates varied significantly by continent and income level. Europe and the Americas faced surges in infections and low case fatality rates. In contrast, Africa experienced low infection rates and higher case fatality rates, with lower- and middle-income nations exceeding case fatality rates in high-income countries over time.

The impact of conflict on infectious disease: a systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Conflict situations, armed or not, have been associated with emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. This review aims to identify the pathways through which infectious diseases emerge within conflict situations and to outline appropriate infectious disease preparedness and response strategies.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed representing published evidence from January 2000 to October 2023. Ovid Medline and Embase were utilised to obtain literature on infectious diseases in any conflict settings. The systematic review adhered to PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis). No geographical restrictions were imposed.

FINDINGS

Our review identified 51 studies covering AIDS, Hepatitis B, Tuberculosis, Cholera, Coronavirus 2, Ebola, Poliomyelitis, Malaria, Leishmaniasis, Measles, Diphtheria, Dengue and Acute Bacterial Meningitis within conflict settings in Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Africa since October 2023. Key factors contributing to disease emergence and transmission in conflict situations included population displacement, destruction of vital infrastructure, reduction in functioning healthcare systems and healthcare personnel, disruption of disease control programmes (including reduced surveillance, diagnostic delays, and interrupted vaccinations), reduced access by healthcare providers to populations within areas of active conflict, increased population vulnerability due to limited access to healthcare services, and disruptions in the supply chain of safe water, food, and medication. To mitigate these infectious disease risks reported preparedness and response strategies included both disease-specific intervention strategies as well as broader concepts such as the education of conflict-affected populations through infectious disease awareness programmes, investing in and enabling health care in locations with displaced populations, intensifying immunisation campaigns, and ensuring political commitment and intersectoral collaborations between governments and international organisations.

CONCLUSION

Conflict plays a direct and indirect role in the transmission and propagation of infectious diseases. The findings from this review can assist decision-makers in the development of evidence-based preparedness and response strategies for the timely and effective containment of infectious disease outbreaks in conflict zones and amongst conflict-driven displaced populations.

FUNDING

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control under specific contract No. 22 ECD.13,154 within Framework contract ECDC/2019/001 Lot 1B.

Effects of armed conflict on maternal and infant health: a mixed-methods study of Armenia and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war

INTRODUCTION

Armed conflict worldwide and across history has harmed the health of populations directly and indirectly, including generations beyond those immediately exposed to violence. The 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, inhabited by an ethnically Armenian population, provides an example of how conflict harmed health during COVID-19. We hypothesised that crises exposure would correspond to decreased healthcare utilisation rates and worse health outcomes for the maternal and infant population in Armenia, compounded during the pandemic.

METHODS

Following a mixed-methods approach, we used ecological data from 1980 to 2020 to evaluate health trends in conflict, measured as battle-related deaths (BRDs), COVID-19 cases, and maternal and infant health indicators during periods of conflict and peace in Armenia. We also interviewed 10 key informants about unmet needs, maternal health-seeking behaviours and priorities during the war, collecting recommendations to mitigate the effects of future crisis on maternal and infant health. We followed a deductive coding approach to analyse transcripts and harvest themes.

RESULTS

BRDs totalled more in the 2020 war compared with the previous Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts. Periods of active conflict between 1988-2020 were associated with increased rates of sick newborn mortality, neonatal mortality and pre-eclampsia or eclampsia. Weekly average COVID-19 cases increased sevenfold during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Key informants expressed concerns about the effects of stress and grief on maternal health and pregnancy outcomes and recommended investing in healthcare system reform. Participants also stressed the synergistic effects of the war and COVID-19, noting healthcare capacity concerns and the importance of a strong primary care system.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal and infant health measures showed adverse trends during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, potentially amplified by the concurrent COVID-19 pandemic. To mitigate effects of future crises on population health in Armenia, informants recommended investments in healthcare system reform focused on primary care and health promotion.

Ukrainian migrants' and war refugees' admissions to hospital: evidence from the Polish Nationwide General Hospital Morbidity Study, 2014-2022

BACKGROUND

Considering the rapid influx of Ukrainian migrants and war refugees into Poland, the knowledge of their health condition is becoming increasingly important for health system policy and planning. The aim of the study was to assess war-related changes in the frequency and structure of hospitalizations among Ukrainian migrants and refugees in Poland.

METHODS

The study is based on the analysis of hospital admission records of Ukrainian patients, which were collected in the Nationwide General Hospital Morbidity Study from 01.01.2014 to 31.12.2022.

RESULTS

In the study period, 13,024 Ukrainians were hospitalized in Poland, 51.7% of whom had been admitted to hospital after February 24, 2022. After the war broke out, the average daily hospital admissions augmented from 2.1 to 21.6 person/day. A noticeable increase in the share of women (from 50% to 62%) and children (from 14% to 51%) was also observed. The average age of patients fell from 33.6 ± 0.2 years to 24.6 ± 0.3 years. The most frequently reported hospital events among the migrants until 23.02.2022 were injuries (S00-T98) - 26.1%, pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium (O00-O99) - 18.4%, and factors influencing health status and contact with health services (Z00-Z99) - 8.4%. After the war started, the incidence of health problems among migrants and war refugees changed, with pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium (O00-O99) being the most common - 14.9%, followed by abnormal clinical and lab findings (R00-R99) - 11.9%, and infectious and parasitic diseases (A00-B99) - 11.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings may support health policy planning and delivering adequate healthcare in refugee-hosting countries.

Excess mortality in Ukraine during the course of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021

In this work, the COVID-19 pandemic burden in Ukraine is investigated retrospectively using the excess mortality measures during 2020-2021. In particular, the epidemic impact on the Ukrainian population is studied via the standardized both all-cause and cause-specific mortality scores before and during the epidemic. The excess mortality counts during the pandemic were predicted based on historic data using parametric and nonparametric modeling and then compared with the actual reported counts to quantify the excess. The corresponding standardized mortality P-score metrics were also compared with the neighboring countries. In summary, there were three "waves" of excess all-cause mortality in Ukraine in December 2020, April 2021 and November 2021 with excess of 32%, 43% and 83% above the expected mortality. Each new "wave" of the all-cause mortality was higher than the previous one and the mortality "peaks" corresponded in time to three "waves" of lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality. The lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality constituted 9% to 24% of the all-cause mortality during those three peak months. Overall, the mortality trends in Ukraine over time were similar to neighboring countries where vaccination coverage was similar to that in Ukraine. For cause-specific mortality, the excess observed was due to pneumonia as well as circulatory system disease categories that peaked at the same times as the all-cause and lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality, which was expected. The pneumonias as well as circulatory system disease categories constituted the majority of all cases during those peak times. The seasonality in mortality due to the infectious and parasitic disease category became less pronounced during the pandemic. While the reported numbers were always relatively low, alcohol-related mortality also declined during the pandemic.

Changes in Attitudes toward COVID-19 Vaccination and Vaccine Uptake during Pandemic

The epidemic control approach was based on non-pharmacological measures in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by vaccine uptake in the second year. Vaccine uptake depends on the individual attitude toward vaccination. The aim was to assess the changes in attitudes regarding COVID-19 vaccine protection during the pandemic and to determine the vaccination uptake concerning these attitudes. A panel study on COVID-19 vaccine attitudes and vaccination against COVID-19 was conducted in Belgrade, Serbia. The first survey was carried out in May−June 2020, and the second survey was organized in August−September 2021. During the baseline testing performed in 2020, 64.4% of respondents believed that the future vaccine against COVID-19 could protect against the COVID-19 disease, while 9.7% thought that it could not, and 25.9% were unsure. One year later, in the second survey, the percentage of participants with positive attitudes was slightly lower (64.7% vs. 62.5%). However, negative attitudes turned positive in 34% of cases, and 28.9% became unsure about vaccine protection (p < 0.001). Out of the 390 participants included in the study, 79.7% were vaccinated against COVID-19 until follow-up. There is a statistically significant difference in vaccination uptake compared to the baseline attitude about the protection of the COVID-19 vaccine. The main finding of our study is that the majority of participants who were vaccine hesitant during the baseline testing changed their opinion during the follow-up period. Additionally, the baseline attitude about the protection of the COVID-19 vaccine has been shown to be a potential determinant of vaccination uptake.

Ukraine's triple emergency: Food crisis amid conflicts and COVID-19 pandemic

Globally, both Russia and Ukraine play a key role in food production. Both countries are known for their meticulous positions in producing and exporting wheat, maize, sunflower seed oil, and cotton seed oil. Although the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for more than 5 years, the recent invasion of Russia in Ukraine has endangered food security in Ukraine during the COVID-19 pandemic. As COVID-19 cripples the healthcare infrastructure of Ukraine, food insecurity challenges the civilian population to migration. As the conflict intensitifes, damages to properties, loss of lives, rise of infectious diseases, incremental rise in energy prices, and fuel consumption are some of the possible consequences. This commentary aims to highlight the different ways in which access to food has been endangered, the implications that food crisis has on the world, and thus provide key recommendations on what needs to be addressed to mitigate the rising risks of the food crisis in the world.

Hospitalizations of Ukrainian Migrants and Refugees in Poland in the Time of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

BACKGROUND

In the face of a sudden influx of several million migrants and war refugees from Ukraine to other European countries, knowledge about the health of Ukrainian citizens becomes increasingly important. The aim of the study is to identify the main health problems of hospitalized Ukrainian citizens residing in Poland in the period from 2014 to June 2022.

METHODS

This study is based on hospitalization data of Ukrainian patients in Poland taken from the Nationwide General Hospital Morbidity Study.

RESULTS

The study group covered 8591 hospitalization records. We observed two hospitalization peaks, one in patients aged 0-5 and the other one in those aged 20-35. After the official outbreak of the war, 2231 Ukrainian citizens were hospitalized in Poland. At this time, the most often reported principal reasons for the hospitalizations of adult women were diseases related to pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium, whereas in groups of adult men diseases were related to injury, poisoning and certain other consequences of external causes, and in children and adolescents diseases were infectious and parasitic diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings may have implications for healthcare policies and service provision to newly arrived migrants and war refugees in target European countries.

Tracking SARS-COV-2 variants using Nanopore sequencing in Ukraine in 2021

The use of real-time genomic epidemiology has enabled the tracking of the global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), informing evidence-based public health decision making. Ukraine has experienced four waves of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) between spring 2020 and spring 2022. However, insufficient capacity for local genetic sequencing limited the potential application of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance for public health response in the country. Herein, we report local sequencing of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from patient samples collected in Kyiv in July-December 2021 using Oxford Nanopore technology. Together with other published Ukrainian SARS-CoV-2 genomes, our data suggest that the third wave of the epidemic in Ukraine (June-December 2021) was dominated by the Delta Variant of Concern (VOC). Our phylogeographic analysis revealed that in summer 2021 Delta VOC was introduced into Ukraine from multiple locations worldwide, with most introductions coming from Central and Eastern European countries. The wide geographic range of Delta introductions coincides with increased volume of travel to Ukraine particularly from locations outside of Europe in summer 2021. This study highlights the need to urgently integrate affordable and easily scaled pathogen sequencing technologies in locations with less developed genomic infrastructure, in order to support local public health decision making.

The human toll and humanitarian crisis of the Russia-Ukraine war: the first 162 days

BACKGROUND

We examined the human toll and subsequent humanitarian crisis resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022.

METHOD

We extracted and analysed data resulting from Russian military attacks on Ukrainians between 24 February and 4 August 2022. The data tracked direct deaths and injuries, damage to healthcare infrastructure and the impact on health, the destruction of residences, infrastructure, communication systems, and utility services - all of which disrupted the lives of Ukrainians.

RESULTS

As of 4 August 2022, 5552 civilians were killed outright and 8513 injured in Ukraine as a result of Russian attacks. Local officials estimate as many as 24 328 people were also killed in mass atrocities, with Mariupol being the largest (n=22 000) such example. Aside from wide swaths of homes, schools, roads, and bridges destroyed, hospitals and health facilities from 21 cities across Ukraine came under attack. The disruption to water, gas, electricity, and internet services also extended to affect supplies of medications and other supplies owing to destroyed facilities or production that ceased due to the war. The data also show that Ukraine saw an increase in cases of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and Coronavirus (COVID-19).

CONCLUSIONS

The 2022 Russia-Ukraine War not only resulted in deaths and injuries but also impacted the lives and safety of Ukrainians through destruction of healthcare facilities and disrupted delivery of healthcare and supplies. The war is an ongoing humanitarian crisis given the continuing destruction of infrastructure and services that directly impact the well-being of human lives. The devastation, trauma and human cost of war will impact generations of Ukrainians to come.