Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Insights into epidemiological trends of severe chest injuries: an analysis of age, period, and cohort from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

This study assessed the global trends and burden of severe chest injury, including rib fractures, lung contusions, and heart injuries from 1990 to 2019. Herein, we predicted the burden patterns and temporal trends of severe chest injuries to provide epidemiological evidence globally and in China.

METHODS

In our analysis, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), and years lived with disability rate (ASYR) of severe chest injury were analyzed by gender, age, sociodemographic index, and geographical region between 1990 and 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Trends were depicted by calculating the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). The impact of age, period, and cohort factors was assessed using an Age-Period-Cohort model. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict severe chest injury trends from 2020 to 2050.

RESULTS

In 2019, the global number of severe chest injury cases reached 7.95 million, with the highest incidence rate observed in Central Europe (209.61). Afghanistan had the highest ASIRs at 277.52, while North Korea had the lowest ASIRs at 41.02. From 1990 to 2019, the Syrian Arab Republic saw significant increases in ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR, with EAPCs of 10.4%, 9.31%, and 10.3%, respectively. Burundi experienced a decrease in ASIR with an EAPC of - 6.85% (95% confidence interval [CI] - 11.11, - 2.37), while Liberia's ASPR and ASYR declined with EAPCs of - 3.22% (95% CI - 4.73, - 1.69) and - 5.67% (95% CI - 8.00, - 3.28), respectively. Falls and road injuries remained the most common causes. The relative risk of severe chest injury by age, period, and cohort demonstrated a complex effect globally and in China. The ARIMA model forecasted a steady increase in global numbers from 2020 to 2050, while in China, it forecasted an increase in incidence, a decrease in ASIR and ASYR, and an increase in ASPR.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a groundbreaking analysis of global severe chest injury, shedding light on its measures and impact. These findings highlight the need for timely, specialized care and addressing regional disparities to mitigate the severe chest injury burden.

Comparing NEWS2, TRISS, and RTS in predicting mortality rate in trauma patients based on prehospital data set: a diagnostic study

BACKGROUND

In the recent years, National Early Warning Score2 (NEWS2) is utilized to predict early on, the worsening of clinical status in patients. To this date the predictive accuracy of National Early Warning Score (NEWS2), Revised Trauma Score (RTS), and Trauma and injury severity score (TRISS) regarding the trauma patients' mortality rate have not been compared. Therefore, the objective of this study is comparing NEWS2, TRISS, and RTS in predicting mortality rate in trauma patients based on prehospital data set.

METHODS

This cross-sectional retrospective diagnostic study performed on 6905 trauma patients, of which 4191 were found eligible, referred to the largest trauma center in southern Iran, Shiraz, during 2022-2023 based on their prehospital data set in order to compare the prognostic power of NEWS2, RTS, and TRISS in predicting in-hospital mortality rate. Patients are divided into deceased and survived groups. Demographic data, vital signs, and GCS were obtained from the patients and scoring systems were calculated and compared between the two groups. TRISS and ISS are calculated with in-hospital data set; others are based on prehospital data set.

RESULTS

A total of 129 patients have deceased. Age, cause of injury, length of hospital stay, SBP, RR, HR, temperature, SpO2, and GCS were associated with mortality (p-value < 0.001). TRISS and RTS had the highest sensitivity and specificity respectively (77.52, CI 95% [69.3-84.4] and 93.99, CI 95% [93.2-94.7]). TRISS had the highest area under the ROC curve (0.934) followed by NEWS2 (0.879), GCS (0.815), RTS (0.812), and ISS (0.774). TRISS and NEWS were superior to RTS, GCS, and ISS (p-value < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

This novel study compares the accuracy of NEWS2, TRISS, and RTS scoring systems in predicting mortality rate based on prehospital data. The findings suggest that all the scoring systems can predict mortality, with TRISS being the most accurate of them, followed by NEWS2. Considering the time consumption and ease of use, NEWS2 seems to be accurate and quick in predicting mortality based on prehospital data set.

Exploring Diet-Based Treatments for Atrial Fibrillation: Patient Empowerment and Citizen Science as a Model for Quality-of-Life-Centered Solutions

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common heart rhythm disorder in the Western world. Between the years 2010 and 2019, the global prevalence of AF rose from 33.5 million to 59 million, highlighting the importance of developing equitable treatments for patients. The disease is associated with symptoms such as palpitations, dizziness, fatigue, shortness of breath, and cognitive dysfunction. In addition, AF increases the risk of developing a stroke and heart failure. Despite new insights into risk factors that can lead to the development of AF, the success of current treatments is suboptimal. Numerous risk factors, such as hypertension, diabetes, and obesity, have been associated with the development and progression of AF. As these can be lifestyle-related risk factors, lifestyle modification may be a solution to reduce AF-related symptoms as well as episodes. Research results show that certain dietary changes can reduce AF and numerous risk factors for AF. Increasing attention is being given to Mediterranean and whole, plant-based eating patterns, which emphasize eating grains, legumes, vegetables, fruits, and nuts, while excluding most-or all-animal products. Hence, what are the beneficial aspects of a Mediterranean and plant-based diet which consists mainly of unprocessed foods? In the current review, we discuss the outcomes of diet-based treatments. Moreover, other diet-related treatments, brought up by patient initiatives, are highlighted. These patient-initiated studies include L-glutamine and electrolytes as options to manage AF. Also, we highlight the emerging importance of valuing patient needs and a quality-of-life-centered approach to medicine. As indicated by recent studies and patient experiences, citizen science can create inclusive solutions that lead to patient empowerment and a holistic approach for AF management.

Musculoskeletal system injuries in the Polish Territorial Defence Forces

BACKGROUND

Musculoskeletal system injuries (MSIs) are the major health problem of soldiers. The aim of this study was to assess the types of MSIs that occurred most frequently among soldiers and which parts of the body they generally affected.

METHODS

The study included 140 Territorial Army soldiers, both men and women, serving in the Polish Territorial Defence Forces (TDF). Times and frequency of MSIs were assessed using an original questionnaire available via a web-based platform, the TDF Information Portal and the Yammer network.

RESULTS

Among the participants, 42% reported MSIs, most often a single one (19%), incurred while doing military service. Damaged muscles and ligaments were the most common injuries in both groups (p>0.05). The knee joint was the main location of injuries for both sexes (24% in men vs 50% in women, p>0.05). Other parts of the body often affected by injuries were the shoulder joint (24%, p>0.05), head, spine, wrist, fingers, ankle and feet (19% each) in the male soldiers and the ankle (24%), spine (14%), head, chest, shoulder joint and foot (10% each) in the female soldiers. Injuries reoccurred with similar frequency in the female and male soldiers (43% vs 40%, p>0.05) and had the same location in both groups (43% vs 40%, respectively, p>0.05). Difficult terrain, too intensive military training and heavy loads were the main risk factors for MSIs in both groups (p>0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

More than half of all the participants (19% of the men and 33% of the women) reported at least one injury incurred during military service. Over 40% of all the study subjects had reinjuries. The males and females were similar in terms of the most common type and location of MSI. Occurrence of MSIs rarely required interruption in the military training/service.

Control of Haemorrhage in Orthopaedic Trauma

This paper aims to outline current practices and examine promising new advancements in the modern management of haemorrhage in orthopaedic trauma. Many prehospital and perioperative haemorrhage control strategies and techniques have been available to clinicians for multiple decades, yet our understanding and utilisation of these practices continues to be refined and optimised. There is a particular focus in this article on issues related to resuscitation and coagulation in trauma. We examine the complex mechanisms that lead to coagulopathy in trauma patients as well as the transformative effect tranexamic acid has had in limiting blood loss. We also explore some emerging technologies such as endovascular interventions and clot-stabilising dressings and devices that are likely to have a significant impact going forward.

The Role of Whole Blood Hemostatic Resuscitation in Bleeding Geriatric Trauma Patients

INTRODUCTION

Whole blood (WB) has recently gained increased popularity as an adjunct to the resuscitation of hemorrhaging civilian trauma patients. We aimed to assess the nationwide outcomes of using WB as an adjunct to component therapy (CT) versus CT alone in resuscitating geriatric trauma patients.

METHODS

We performed a 5-y (2017-2021) retrospective analysis of the Trauma Quality Improvement Program. We included geriatric (age, ≥65 y) trauma patients presenting with hemorrhagic shock (shock index >1) and requiring at least 4 units of packed red blood cells in 4 h. Patients with severe head injuries (head Abbreviated Injury Scale ≥3) and transferred patients were excluded. Patients were stratified into WB-CT versus CT only. Primary outcomes were 6-h, 24-h, and in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were major complications. Multivariable regression analysis was performed, adjusting for potential confounding factors.

RESULTS

A total of 1194 patients were identified, of which 141 (12%) received WB. The mean ± standard deviation age was 74 ± 7 y, 67.5% were male, and 83.4% had penetrating injuries. The median [interquartile range] Injury Severity Score was 19 [13-29], with no difference among study groups (P = 0.059). Overall, 6-h, 24-h, and in-hospital mortality were 16%, 23.1%, and 43.6%, respectively. On multivariable regression analysis, WB was independently associated with reduced 24-h (odds ratio, 0.62 [0.41-0.94]; P = 0.024), and in-hospital mortality (odds ratio, 0.60 [0.40-0.90]; P = 0.013), but not with major complications (odds ratio, 0.78 [0.53-1.15]; P = 0.207).

CONCLUSIONS

Transfusion of WB as an adjunct to CT is associated with improved early and overall mortality in geriatric trauma patients presenting with severe hemorrhage. The findings from this study are clinically important, as this is an essential first step in prioritizing the selection of WB resuscitation for geriatric trauma patients presenting with hemorrhagic shock.

Prediction of the burden of road traffic injuries in Iran by 2030: Prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years

PURPOSE

Road traffic accidents pose a global challenge with substantial human and economic costs. Iran experiences a high incidence of road traffic injuries, leading to a significant burden on society. This study aims to predict the future burden of road traffic injuries in Iran until 2030, providing valuable insights for policy-making and interventions to improve road safety and reduce the associated human and economic costs.

METHODS

This analytical study utilized time series models, specifically autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), to predict the burden of road traffic accidents by analyzing past data to identify patterns and trends in Iran until 2030. The required data related to prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were collected from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database and analyzed using R software and relevant modeling and statistical analysis packages.

RESULTS

Both prediction models, ARIMA and ANNs indicate that the prevalence rates (per 100,000) of all road traffic injuries, except for motorcyclist road injuries which have an almost flat trend, remaining at around 430, increase by 2030. Based on estimations of both models, the rates of death and DALYs due to motor vehicle and pedestrian road traffic injuries decrease. For motor vehicle road injuries, estimated trends decrease to approximately 520 DALYs and 10 deaths. Also, for pedestrian road injuries these rates reached approximately 300 DALYs and 6 deaths, according to the models. For cyclists and other road traffic injuries, the predicted DALY rates by the ANN model increase to almost 50 and 8, while predictions conducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend, remaining at 40 and approximately 6.5. Moreover, these rates for the prediction of death rate by the ANN model increased to 0.6 and 0.1, while predictions conducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend, remaining at 0.43 and 0.07. According to the ANN model, the predicted rates of DALY and death for motorcyclists decrease to 100 and approximately 2.7, respectively. On the other hand, predictions made by the ARIMA model show a static trend, with rates remaining at 200 and approximately 3.2, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of road traffic injuries is predicted to increase, while the death and DALY rates of road traffic injuries show different patterns. Effective intervention programs and safety measures are necessary to prevent and reduce road traffic accidents. Different interventions should be designed and implemented specifically for different groups of pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and motor vehicle drivers.

The global burden of fracture-related infection: can we do better?

Fracture-related infection is a major complication related to musculoskeletal injuries that not only has important clinical consequences, but also a substantial socioeconomic impact. Although fracture-related infection is one of the oldest disease entities known to mankind, it has only recently been defined and, therefore, its global burden is still largely unknown. In this Personal View, we describe the origin of the term fracture-related infection, present the available data on its global impact, and discuss important aspects regarding its prevention and management that could lead to improved outcomes in both high-resource and low-resource settings. We also highlight the need for health-care systems to be adequately compensated for the high cost of human resources (trained staff) and well-equipped facilities required to adequately care for these complex patients. Our aim is to increase awareness among clinicians and policy makers that fracture-related infection is a disease entity that deserves prioritisation in terms of research, with the goal to standardise treatment and improve patient outcomes on a global scale.

Analyzing the trend of mortality due to traffic and nontraffic accidents: a study in the north of Iran

Background

Examining the raw and standardized mortality rates is the primary strategy for improving life expectancy and human health in society through identifying risk factors and dealing with the factors that cause them.

Objectives

This study examined the trend of mortalities due to traffic and nontraffic accidents.

Methods

This cross-sectional study examines the registered mortalities during the years 2016-2022 in the form of a census in the health department's death registration and classification system. Mortality was analyzed as raw and standardized mortality in each 100 000 population.

Results

Out of 18 265 deaths during 2016-2022, 1305 (7.15%) were related to accidents and incidents. The age-standardized total mortality rate in the first year was 32.9, and in the final year of the study, it was 33.3 per 100 000 people; although there are fluctuations, this trend is upward (P.trend=0.021). Also, the age-standardized traffic death rate in the first year is 19, and in the final year is 12 per 100 000 people; this decreasing trend was not statistically significant (P.trend=0.061). The incidence of age-standardized intentional nontraffic deaths was 1.7 in the first year of the study interval and 9.8 in the last year in 100 000 people, which showed an upward trend (P.trend<0.001).

Conclusion

In light of the generally increasing trend of accidents, especially nontraffic accidents, universal and well-rounded measures are necessary for safety matters and reducing mortality.

Post-injury long-term sickness absence and risk of disability pension: The role of socioeconomic status

INTRODUCTION

Previous research has identified low socioeconomic status (SES) as a risk factor for long-term sickness absence (LTSA) and disability pension (DP) following trauma. However, most studies lack information on medical diagnoses, limiting our understanding of the underlying factors. To address this gap, we retrieved information about diagnostic causes for receipt of welfare benefits to explore the role of SES in the transition from post-injury LTSA to permanent DP among the working population in Norway.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study of all Norwegian residents aged 25-59 years registered with a spell of LTSA due to injury commencing in the period 2000-2003. This cohort was followed through 2014 by linking information on receipt of welfare benefits with sociodemographic data from administrative registers. SES was defined as a composite measure of educational attainment and income level. We used flexible parametric survival models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for all-cause and diagnosis-specific DP according to SES, adjusting for sex, age, marital status, immigrant status and healthcare region of residence.

RESULTS

Of 53,937 adults with post-injury LTSA, 9,665 (18 %) transferred to DP during follow-up. The crude risk of DP was highest for LTSA spells due to poisoning and head injuries. Overall, individuals in the lowest SES category had twice the risk of DP compared to those in the highest SES category (HR = 2.25, 95 % CI 2.13-2.38). The difference by SES was greatest for LTSA due to poisoning and smallest for LTSA due to head injuries. A majority (75 %) of DP recipients had a non-injury diagnosis as the primary cause of DP. The socioeconomic gradient was more pronounced for non-injury causes of DP (HR = 2.47, 95 % CI 2.31-2.63) than for injury causes (HR = 1.73, 95 % CI 1.56-1.92) and was especially steep for DP due to musculoskeletal diseases and mental and behavioural disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

The relationship between SES and DP varied by both the type of injury that caused LTSA and the diagnosis used to grant DP, highlighting the importance of taking diagnostic information into account when investigating long-term consequences of injuries.

Torso hemorrhage: noncompressible? never say never

Since limb bleeding has been well managed by extremity tourniquets, the management of exsanguinating torso hemorrhage (TH) has become a hot issue both in military and civilian medicine. Conventional hemostatic techniques are ineffective for managing traumatic bleeding of organs and vessels within the torso due to the anatomical features. The designation of noncompressible torso hemorrhage (NCTH) marks a significant step in investigating the injury mechanisms and developing effective methods for bleeding control. Special tourniquets such as abdominal aortic and junctional tourniquet and SAM junctional tourniquet designed for NCTH have been approved by FDA for clinical use. Combat ready clamp and junctional emergency treatment tool also exhibit potential for external NCTH control. In addition, resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta (REBOA) further provides an endovascular solution to alleviate the challenges of NCTH treatment. Notably, NCTH cognitive surveys have revealed that medical staff have deficiencies in understanding relevant concepts and treatment abilities. The stereotypical interpretation of NCTH naming, particularly the term noncompressible, is the root cause of this issue. This review discusses the dynamic relationship between TH and NCTH by tracing the development of external NCTH control techniques. The authors propose to further subdivide the existing NCTH into compressible torso hemorrhage and NCTH' (noncompressible but REBOA controllable) based on whether hemostasis is available via external compression. Finally, due to the irreplaceability of special tourniquets during the prehospital stage, the authors emphasize the importance of a package program to improve the efficacy and safety of external NCTH control. This program includes the promotion of tourniquet redesign and hemostatic strategies, personnel reeducation, and complications prevention.

Rural trauma team development training amongst medical trainees and traffic law enforcement professionals in a low-income country: a protocol for a prospective multicenter interrupted time series

Background

Road traffic injuries and their resulting mortality disproportionately affect rural communities in low-middle-income countries (LMICs) due to limited human and infrastructural resources for postcrash care. Evidence from high-income countries show that trauma team development training could improve the efficiency, care, and outcome of injuries. A paucity of studies have evaluated the feasibility and applicability of this concept in resource constrained settings. The aim of this study protocol is to establish the feasibility of rural trauma team development and training in a cohort of medical trainees and traffic law enforcement professionals in Uganda.

Methods

Muticenter interrupted time series of prospective interventional trainings, using the rural trauma team development course (RTTDC) model of the American College of Surgeons. A team of surgeon consultants will execute the training. A prospective cohort of participants will complete a before and after training validated trauma related multiple choice questionnaire during September 2019-November 2023. The difference in mean prepost training percentage multiple choice questionnaire scores will be compared using ANOVA-test at 95% CI. Time series regression models will be used to test for autocorrelations in performance. Acceptability and relevance of the training will be assessed using 3 and 5-point-Likert scales. All analyses will be performed using Stata 15.0. Ethical approval was obtained from Research and Ethics Committee of Mbarara University of Science and Technology (Ref: MUREC 1/7, 05/05-19) and Uganda National Council for Science and Technology (Ref: SS 5082). Retrospective registration was accomplished with Research Registry (UIN: researchregistry9490).

Validity and reliability International Classification of Diseases-10 codes for all forms of injury: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Intentional and unintentional injuries are a leading cause of death and disability globally. International Classification of Diseases (ICD), Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes are used to classify injuries in administrative health data and are widely used for health care planning and delivery, research, and policy. However, a systematic review of their overall validity and reliability has not yet been done.

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a systematic review of the validity and reliability of external cause injury ICD-10 codes.

METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE, COCHRANE, and SCOPUS were searched (inception to April 2023) for validity and/or reliability studies of ICD-10 external cause injury codes in all countries for all ages. We examined all available data for external cause injuries and injuries related to specific body regions. Validity was defined by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). Reliability was defined by inter-rater reliability (IRR), measured by Krippendorff's alpha, Cohen's Kappa, and/or Fleiss' kappa.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven published studies from 2006 to 2023 were included. Across all injuries, the mean outcome values and ranges were sensitivity: 61.6% (35.5%-96.0%), specificity: 91.6% (85.8%-100%), PPV: 74.9% (58.6%-96.5%), NPV: 80.2% (44.6%-94.4%), Cohen's kappa: 0.672 (0.480-0.928), Krippendorff's alpha: 0.453, and Fleiss' kappa: 0.630. Poisoning and hand and wrist injuries had higher mean sensitivity (84.4% and 96.0%, respectively), while self-harm and spinal cord injuries were lower (35.5% and 36.4%, respectively). Transport and pedestrian injuries and hand and wrist injuries had high PPVs (96.5% and 92.0%, respectively). Specificity and NPV were generally high, except for abuse (NPV 44.6%).

CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE

The validity and reliability of ICD-10 external cause injury codes vary based on the injury types coded and the outcomes examined, and overall, they only perform moderately well. Future work, potentially utilizing artificial intelligence, may improve the validity and reliability of ICD codes used to document injuries.

In-hospital complications of work-related musculoskeletal injuries

BACKGROUND, OBJECTIVES

Work-related musculoskeletal (MSK) injuries are a major contributor to morbidity worldwide and frequently result in hospitalisation. Hospital complications are common, costly, and largely preventable, but relevant data is required to address this. This study aimed to identify the incidence and factors associated with in-hospital complications of work-related MSK injuries.

METHODS

This study is based on work-related MSK hospital admission data from Victorian Admitted Episodes Database, 2016-2022. Complications were identified based on ICD-10-AM coding using CHADx (Classification of Hospital Acquired Diagnoses). Negative binomial and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors related to in-hospital complications.

RESULTS

In-hospital complications occurred in 6.3 % of work-related MSK injury admissions. In the adjusted models, ages ≥45 years, female sex, and area-level disadvantage were associated with in-hospital complications. Stay at public (vs private) hospitals, comorbidity, emergency admissions, and general anaesthesia were also associated. Complication rates were higher in hospitalised workers with direct head, neck, and trunk injuries and cumulative MSK disorders than those with direct extremities injuries and acute MSK conditions. The most common complications were cardiovascular, gastrointestinal complications and adverse drug events.

CONCLUSION

This study identified patient, injury and hospital-related characteristics associated with in-hospital complications of work-related MSK injuries for informing prevention strategies and risk estimation by hospital staff and workers' compensation schemes. The results demonstrate a sizable rate of complications given the relatively young and healthy study population.

Clinical observation of gastrointestinal function recovery in patients after hepatobiliary surgery

BACKGROUND

The liver is an important metabolic and digestive organ in the human body, capable of producing bile, clotting factors, and vitamins.

AIM

To investigate the recovery of gastrointestinal function in patients after hepatobiliary surgery and identify effective rehabilitation measures.

METHODS

A total of 200 patients who underwent hepatobiliary surgery in our hospital in 2022 were selected as the study subjects. They were divided into a control group and a study group based on the extent of the surgery, with 100 patients in each group. The control group received routine treatment, while the study group received targeted interventions, including early enteral nutrition support, drinking water before gas discharge, and large bowel enema, to promote postoperative gastrointestinal function recovery. The recovery of gastrointestinal function was compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

Compared with the control group, patients in the study group had better recovery of bowel sounds and less accumulation of fluids in the liver bed and gallbladder fossa (P < 0.05). They also had shorter time to gas discharge and first meal (P < 0.05), higher overall effective rate of gastrointestinal function recovery (P < 0.05), and lower incidence of postoperative complications (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Targeted nursing interventions (early nutritional support, drinking water before gas discharge, and enema) can effectively promote gastrointestinal function recovery in patients undergoing hepatobiliary surgery and reduce the incidence of complications, which is worthy of promotion.

An intricate vagina penetrating injury with a 22 cm cassava stick in situ for 6 months: a case report

BACKGROUND

Trauma remains one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality and a threat to attainment of sustainable development goal 11. Genital urinary trauma is reported in about 10% of patients presenting with trauma worldwide, and in about 6.6% of patients in Sub-Saharan Africa. If not careful enough, one may miss the foreign body in the vagina and this may be associated with morbidity, and although  rare, mortality.

CASE PRESENTATION

We report a case of a 7-year-old Black Ugandan that had suffered vagina trauma 6 months prior to presentation at our facility and presented with chronic vagina pus discharge for 6 months. Prior examinations had failed to recognize the foreign body and so did the two abdominal pelvic ultrasound scans. During examination under anesthesia, we were able to locate the cassava stick that had caused penetrating vagina injury and we were able to dislodge it. It was a blunt cassava stick with length of 22 cm and diameter of 2 cm. Although it had gone through the peritoneal cavity, we did not do a laparotomy.

CONCLUSION

This case emphasizes the need for a thorough vaginal exam including the need to do it under anesthesia with good lighting even when ultrasound scan findings are normal. It presents an opportunity for one to manage penetrating peritoneal injury without a laparotomy in highly selected cases. Gynecologists should be keen as well to rule out child molestation.

Review of the India Adolescent Health Strategy in the context of disease burden among adolescents

Background

A nuanced understanding of the health needs of adolescents in the context of the India Adolescent Health Strategy (IAHS) is needed to inform policy interventions for improving the health and well-being of adolescents in India.

Methods

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we identified the top ten causes of years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) disaggregated by sex and age group (10-14 and 15-19 years) for India and its states in 2019. To inform the IAHS of refinement or expansion in focus needed to improve adolescent health in India, we reviewed the extent to which the top 10 causes of disease burden are addressed in the IAHS, and the availability of and age- and sex-disaggregation in the service utilisation data for adolescents captured in the Adolescent Friendly Health Clinic monitoring information system (AFHC MIS) and Health Management Information System (HMIS). We also reviewed the availability of and age-and sex-disaggregation in the data capture at the population level for the IAHS outcome indicators in the data sources identified in the IAHS operational framework.

Findings

Females in the 10-14 and 15-19 years age groups suffered 6.75 million and 9.25 million DALYs, respectively, 39.1% and 44.2% of which were YLLs; the corresponding DALYs for males were 6.71 million and 9.65 million (42.3% and 41.1% YLLs), respectively. Within the 6 thematic areas of the IAHS, most strategies and indicators identified are for sexual and reproductive health followed by nutrition, and broadly these conditions accounted for YLDs and not YLLs in adolescents. Significant gaps in the IAHS in comparison to the disease burden for fatal diseases and conditions were seen across injuries, communicable diseases, and non-communicable diseases. Injuries accounted for 65.9% and 45.3% of YLLs in males and females aged 15-19 years, and 40.8% in males aged 10-14 years. Specifically, road injuries (15.3%, 95% UI 11.0-18.0) and self-harm (11.3%, 95% UI 8.7-14.2) accounted for most of the injury deaths in 15-19 years whereas drowning (7.7% 95% UI 5.8-9.6) and road injuries (6.9%, 95% UI 4.7-8.6) accounted for the most injury deaths in 10-14 years males. However, only self-harm and gender-based violence are specifically addressed in the IAHS with non-specific interventions for other injuries. Diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, malaria, encephalitis, tuberculosis, typhoid, cirrhosis, and hepatitis are the other disease conditions accounting for YLLs and DALYs in adolescents but these are neither addressed in the IAHS nor in service provision under the AFHC MIS. There is no age- or sex-disaggregation in the cause of death data captured in the HMIS to allow an understanding of mortality in adolescents. For the IAHS outcome indicators at the population level, data capture for the 10-14 years irrespective of sex was largely missing from the population surveys and none of the surveys captured data for either females or males aged 15-19 years for physical inactivity and mental health indicators.

Interpretation

The considerable differences seen in the IAHS thematic focus as compared with the leading causes of fatal and non-fatal disease burden in adolescents in India, and in the availability of population-level data to monitor the outcome indicators of the IAHS can pose substantial limitations for improving adolescent health in India. The findings in this paper can be utilized by decision makers to refine action aimed at improving adolescent health and well-being.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Trends in mortality from non-natural causes in children and adolescents (0-19 years) in Europe from 2000 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Non-natural mortality in children and adolescents is a global public health problem that varies widely from country to country. Data on child and adolescent maltreatment are not readily available, and mortality due to violent causes is also underestimated.

METHODS

Injury-related mortality rates (overall and by specific causes) from 2000 to 2018 in selected European countries were analysed to observe mortality patterns in children and adolescents using data from the Eurostat database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated for each country. Joinpoint regression analysis with a significance level of 0.05 and 95% confidence intervals was performed for mortality trends.

RESULTS

Children and adolescent mortality from non-natural causes decreased significantly in Europe from 10.48 around 2005 to 5.91 around 2015. The Eastern countries (Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic) had higher rates; while Spain, Denmark, Italy, and the United Kingdom had the lowest. Rates for European Country declined by 5.10% per year over the entire period. Larger downward trends were observed in Ireland, Spain and Portugal; smaller downward trends were observed for Eastern countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia) and Finland. Among specific causes of death, the largest decreases were observed for accidental causes (-5.9%) and traffic accidents (-6.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality among children and adolescents due to non-natural causes has decreased significantly over the past two decades. Accidental events and transport accidents recorded the greatest decline in mortality rates, although there are still some European countries where the number of deaths among children and adolescents from non-natural causes is high. Social, cultural, and health-related reasons may explain the observed differences between countries.

Hypofibrinogenemia following injury in 186 children and adolescents: identification of the phenotype, current outcomes, and potential for intervention

Objectives

Recent studies evaluating fibrinogen replacement in trauma, along with newly available fibrinogen-based products, has led to an increase in debate on where products such as cryoprecipitate belong in our resuscitation strategies. We set out to define the phenotype and outcomes of those with hypofibrinogenemia and evaluate whether fibrinogen replacement should have a role in the initial administration of massive transfusion.

Methods

All patients <18 years of age presenting to our trauma center 11/17-4/21 were reviewed. We then evaluated all patients who received emergency-release and massive transfusion protocol (MTP) products. Patients were defined as hypofibrinogenemic (HYPOFIB) if admission fibrinogen <150 or rapid thrombelastography (r-TEG) angle <60 degrees. Our analysis sought to define risk factors for presenting with HYPOFIB, the impact on outcomes, and whether early replacement improved mortality.

Results

4169 patients were entered into the trauma registry, with 926 level 1 trauma activations, of which 186 patients received emergency-release blood products during this time; 1%, 3%, and 10% were HYPOFIB, respectively. Of the 186 patients of interest, 18 were HYPOFIB and 168 were non-HYPOFIB. The HYPOFIB patients were significantly younger, had lower field and arrival Glasgow Coma Scale, had higher head Abbreviated Injury Scale, arrived with worse global coagulopathy, and died from brain injury. Non-HYPOFIB patients were more likely to have (+)focused assessment for the sonography of trauma on arrival, sustained severe abdominal injuries, and die from hemorrhage. 12% of patients who received early cryoprecipitate (0-2 hours) had higher mortality by univariate analysis (55% vs 31%, p=0.045), but no difference on multivariate analysis (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.07 to 1.81, p=0.221). Those receiving early cryoprecipitate who survived after pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission had lower PICU fibrinogen and r-TEG alpha-angle values.

Conclusion

In pediatric trauma, patients with hypofibrinogenemia on admission are most likely younger and to have sustained severe brain injury, with an associated mortality of over 80%. Given the absence of bleeding-related deaths in HYPOFIB patients, this study does not provide evidence for the empiric use of cryoprecipitate in the initial administration of a massive transfusion protocol.

Level of Evidence

Level III - Therapeutic/Care Management.

The Diagnostic, Therapeutic and Prognostic Relevance of Neutrophil Extracellular Traps in Polytrauma

Neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) represent a recently discovered polymorphonuclear leukocyte-associated ancient defence mechanism, and they have also been identified as part of polytrauma patients' sterile inflammatory response. This systematic review aimed to determine the clinical significance of NETs in polytrauma, focusing on potential prognostic, diagnostic and therapeutic relevance. The methodology covered all major databases and all study types, but was restricted to polytraumatised humans. Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria, reporting on 1967 patients. Ten samples were taken from plasma and four from whole blood. There was no standardisation of methodology of NET detection among plasma studies; however, of all the papers that included a healthy control NET, proxies were increased. Polytrauma patients were consistently reported to have higher concentrations of NET markers in peripheral blood than those in healthy controls, but their diagnostic, therapeutic and prognostic utility is equivocal due to the diverse study population and methodology. After 20 years since the discovery of NETs, their natural history and potential clinical utility in polytrauma is undetermined, requiring further standardisation and research.

Unmasking the Underlying Causes: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Mortality From Intentional and Unintentional Injuries in the United Arab Emirates

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has experienced substantial development in infrastructure and transportation in the last few decades. Although available evidence suggests that the incidence of injuries has considerably increased in the previous few years, there is a scarcity of literature that comprehensively analyzed the mortality due to different types of injuries in the UAE. Therefore, the current study was designed to report mortality due to various intentional and unintentional injuries in the UAE. Secondary data was obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database. We targeted injuries-specific mortality datasets. We applied a filter (UAE) to retrieve mortality data from unintentional and intentional injuries in the UAE. The latest data in the WHO mortality database was for 2020-21. A total of 10,357 death records from the UAE were present in the WHO mortality database. The percentage of injury-specific deaths out of total deaths was 8.69% (n=900). Injury-specific mortality rate per 100,000 population was 9.09. The percentage of injury-specific deaths was higher for males (87.3%, n=786) and the age group 25-34 years (n=323, 35.9%). Of the 900 injury-specific deaths, 449 (49.9%) were due to unintentional injuries, 216 (24.0%) were due to unintentional injuries, while the remaining (26.1%, n=235) deaths occurred due to Ill-defined injuries. More than half (53.7%, n=241) of unintentional injuries were because of road traffic injuries (RTIs) followed by fall (14.7%, n=66), exposure to mechanical forces (6.5%, n=29), drowning (6.0%, n=27) fire (1.1%, n=5), poisonings (1.1%, n=5), natural disasters (n=1, 0.2%) and other unintentional injuries (16.7%, n=75). More than three-quarters (83.3%, n=180) of intentional injuries were because of self-inflicted injuries while the remaining (16.7%, n=36) intentional injuries-specific deaths occurred due to violence. Many deaths in the UAE occur due to unintentional and intentional injuries. RTIs and falls are the leading causes of unintentional injury-specific deaths, while self-inflicted injuries and violence are the leading causes of intentional injury-specific deaths.

Cause-specific accidental deaths and burdens related to ambient heat in a warming climate: A nationwide study of China

BACKGROUND

Future warming is projected to increase the heat-related mortality burden, especially for vulnerable populations. However, most previous studies focused on non-accidental morbidity or mortality, with far less research on heat-related accidental events.

METHODS

We collected individual accidental death records among all residents in Chinese mainland from June to August during 2013-2019. Accidental deaths were further divided into several subtypes by different causes. We used an individual-level, time-stratified, case-crossover study design to estimate the association between daily mean temperature and accidental deaths, and estimate its variation in seven geo-climatic zones, age (5-64, 65-74, ≥75), and sex (male, female). We then estimated the temperature-related excess accidental deaths under global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3℃.

FINDINGS

A total of 711,929 accidental death records were included in our study. We found that higher temperatures were associated with increased risks of deaths from the total accidental events and four main subtypes, including traffic, falls, drowning, and unintentional injuries. We also found that younger individuals (ages 5-64) and males faced a higher risk of heat-related mortality due to total accidents, traffic incidents, and drowning. For future climate scenarios, even under the 1.5℃ climate change scenario, 6,939 (95% eCI (empirical Confidence Interval): 6,818-7,067) excess accidental deaths per year are attributed to higher summertime daily temperature over mainland China, and the number of accidental deaths would increase by 16.71% and 33.59% under the 2℃ and 3℃ climate change scenarios, respectively. For residents living in southern coastal and northwest inland regions, the projected increase in accidental death is higher.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide study confirms that higher summer temperatures are linked to an increased risk of accidental deaths. Younger age groups and males face a higher risk. This indicates that current estimates of the health effects of climate change might be underestimated, particularly for younger populations.

Analysis and approach to renal trauma: A five-year experience at a level I trauma centre in north India

PURPOSE

Renal trauma constitutes 0.5% - 5% of all trauma patients, and 10% - 20% of abdominal trauma. It is the most commonly injured organ in the genitourinary tract. Road traffic crash (RTC) is the most common cause. In recent years due to the advances in radiological imaging and endovascular techniques, there has been an increase in the nonoperative management of renal trauma. We investigated a large trauma cohort at a level I trauma centre to evaluate patients' demographics with renal trauma, their management, and the outcomes.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of the prospectively collected data of renal trauma patients managed from January 2016 to December 2020. Patients who visited the level I trauma centre in north India with renal trauma were included in this study. Patients who were dead on arrival in the emergency department were excluded. Demographics, mechanism of injury, presence of hemorrhagic shock, associated injuries, complications, length of hospital stay (LOS), discharge, and mortality were recorded. The data were entered in Microsoft Excel 365 and analysed using SPSS version 21.

RESULTS

This study collected data from 303 renal trauma patients. Males constituted 86.5% of the patients. Most patients were young, aged from 20 - 40 years. Blunt renal trauma was the predominant mode of injury (n = 270, 89.1%). RTCs (n = 190, 62.7%) and falls from height (n = 65, 21.4%) were the 2 most common mechanisms of injury. Focused assessment with sonography in trauma was positive in 68.4% of patients. Grade III (grading by the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma) renal trauma (30.4%) was the most common grade in our study. The liver (n = 104, 34.3%) and splenic trauma (n = 96, 31.7%) were the most commonly associated injuries. Of the 303 patients, 260 (85.8%) were managed nonoperatively. The mean (SD) of the patients' LOS was 12.5 (6.5) days. There were 25 (8.3%) mortalities during the study period and all of them had associated other injuries. The comparison of LOS of isolated renal trauma group and renal trauma with associated injuries group was not statistically significant (p = 0.322). All the patients who died during the study period had renal trauma with associated other organ injuries. None of the patients with isolated renal trauma died during the study. The outcome comparison between both groups was not statistically significant (p = 0.110).

CONCLUSION

Renal trauma predominantly occurs in young males, especially due to RTCs followed by fall from height. Focused assessment with sonography in trauma is not reliable in detecting renal injuries, other diagnostic tools such as contrast enhanced computed tomography torso should be considered in diagnosing and grading these injuries. Renal trauma usually does not occur in isolation. Majority are associated with other abdominal and extra abdominal injuries. Most of the times these injuries can be managed nonoperatively, which can achieve a low mortality. The patients who required surgery had high mortality as compared to patients who managed nonoperatively. These patients who required surgery had either severe renal or extra renal trauma and were in hemorrhagic shock. Renal trauma from this large cohort may contribute to improving the quality of care for patients with renal trauma by obtaining knowledge about the patient's characteristics, management, and outcomes.

Development of the Indian Reference Case for undertaking economic evaluation for health technology assessment

Background

Health technology assessment (HTA) is globally recognised as an important tool to guide evidence-based decision-making. However, heterogeneity in methods limits the use of any such evidence. The current research was undertaken to develop a set of standards for conduct of economic evaluations for HTA in India, referred to as the Indian Reference Case.

Methods

Development of the reference case comprised of a four-step process: (i) review of existing international HTA guidelines; (ii) systematic review of economic evaluations for three countries to assess adherence with pre-existing country-specific HTA guidelines; (iii) empirical analysis to assess the impact of alternate assumptions for key principles of economic evaluation on the results of cost-effectiveness analysis; (iv) stakeholder consultations to assess appropriateness of the recommendations. Based on the inferences drawn from the first three processes, a preliminary draft of the reference case was developed, which was finalised based on stakeholder consultations.

Findings

The Indian Reference Case provides twelve recommendations on eleven key principles of economic evaluation: decision problem, comparator, perspective, source of effectiveness evidence, measure of costs, health outcomes, time-horizon, discounting, heterogeneity, uncertainty analysis and equity analysis, and for presentation of results. The recommendations are user-friendly and have scope to allow for context-specific flexibility.

Interpretation

The Indian Reference Case is expected to provide guidance in planning, conducting, and reporting of economic evaluations. It is anticipated that adherence to the Reference Case would increase the quality and policy utilisation of future evaluations. However, with advancement in the field of health economics efforts aimed at refining the Indian Reference Case would be needed.

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. The research was undertaken as part of doctoral thesis of Sharma D, who received scholarship from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), New Delhi, India.

Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury in Malawi: A Propensity-Weighted Analysis of Outcomes and Trends Over Time

BACKGROUND

Pediatric injuries contribute to substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We aim to identify predictors of mortality and time trends for pediatric traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) in Malawi.

METHODS

We performed a propensity-matched analysis of data from the trauma registry at Kamuzu Central Hospital in Malawi from 2008 to 2021. All children ≤16 years of age were included. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Outcomes were compared between patients with and without head injuries.

RESULTS

A cohort of 54,878 patients was included, with 1755 having TBI. The mean ages of patients with and without TBI were 7.8 ± 7.8 years and 7.1 ± 4.5 years, respectively. The most common mechanism for patients with and without TBI was road traffic injury and falls, respectively (48.2% vs. 47.8%, P < 0.01). The crude mortality rate for the TBI cohort was 20.9% compared to 2.0% in the non-TBI cohort (P < 0.01). After propensity matching, patients with TBI had 4.7 higher odds of mortality (95% confidence interval 1.9-11.8). Over time, patients with TBI had an increasing predicted probability of mortality for all age categories, with the most significant increase among children younger than 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS

TBI confers a greater than 4-fold higher likelihood of mortality in this pediatric trauma population in a low-resource setting. These trends have worsened over time.

The Current State of Undergraduate Trauma and Orthopedics Training in Saudi Arabia: A Survey-Based Study of Sixth-Year Medical Students' and Interns' Learning Experience and Subjective Clinical Competence

Background and objective Students frequently complain about the lack of practical skill learning and the poor quality of the medical school curriculum. In light of this, the purpose of this study was to assess the learning experience and subjective clinical competence of final-year medical students and interns in the field of orthopedics in Saudi Arabia (SA). Methods A cross-sectional observational descriptive study utilizing an electronically validated survey was conducted, which included the following six main sections: introduction, demographics, self-assessment of competency regarding certain orthopedic skills, clinical experience in orthopedics, orthopedics curriculum assessment, and choice of future career specialty. Results The total number of participants was 794. Among them, 33% (n=160) and 37.1% (180) had attended no "trauma meetings" or "operating room (OR)" sessions respectively, and only 21.9% (n=106) had attended more than five clinics. Subjective competence in history taking was highest (mean: 8.925 ±1.299) among students who had received more than four weeks of orthopedic rotation and attended more than six clinics. The students who had completed more than four weeks of orthopedic rotation and more than six bedside sessions scored the highest in terms of subjective competence in handling orthopedic patients in primary care settings (mean: 8.014 ±1.931). Conclusion The survey indicates that the amount of orthopedic training provided by institutions varies, with some students receiving less training than recommended. However, longer rotations lead to greater perceived orthopedic competence. Students and interns with more exposure to orthopedics through curriculum and elective rotations demonstrated a greater interest in pursuing orthopedics as a future career.

Neglected burden of injuries in Ethiopia, from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis of the global burden of diseases study 2019

Background

The 2030 agenda for sustainable development goals has given injury prevention new attention, including halving road traffic injuries. This study compiled the best available evidence on injury from the global burden of diseases study for Ethiopia from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Injury data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years lost, years lived with disability, and years of life lost were extracted from the 2019 global burden of diseases study for regions and chartered cities in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2019. Rates were estimated per 100,000 population.

Results

In 2019, the age-standardized rate of incidence was 7,118 (95% UI: 6,621-7,678), prevalence was 21,735 (95% UI: 19,251-26,302), death was 72 (95% UI: 61-83), disability-adjusted life years lost was 3,265 (95% UI: 2,826-3,783), years of live lost was 2,417 (95% UI: 2,043-2,860), and years lived with disability was 848 [95% UI: (620-1,153)]. Since 1990, there has been a reduction in the age-standardized rate of incidence by 76% (95% UI: 74-78), death by 70% (95% UI: 65-75), and prevalence by 13% (95% UI: 3-18), with noticeable inter-regional variations. Transport injuries, conflict and terrorism, interpersonal violence, self-harm, falls, poisoning, and exposure to mechanical forces were the leading causes of injury-related deaths and long-term disabilities. Since 1990, there has been a decline in the prevalence of transport injuries by 32% (95% UI: 31-33), exposure to mechanical forces by 12% (95% UI: 10-14), and interpersonal violence by 7.4% (95% UI: 5-10). However, there was an increment in falls by 8.4% (95% UI: 7-11) and conflict and terrorism by 1.5% (95% UI: 38-27).

Conclusion

Even though the burden of injuries has steadily decreased at national and sub-national levels in Ethiopia over the past 30 years, it still remains to be an area of public health priority. Therefore, injury prevention and control strategies should consider regional disparities in the burden of injuries, promoting transportation safety, developing democratic culture and negotiation skills to solve disputes, using early security-interventions when conflict arises, ensuring workplace safety and improving psychological wellbeing of citizens.

Core health indicators in countries with high proportion of expatriates: Case study of Qatar

Background

Population size and structure have a huge impact on health indicators. In countries with a high proportion of expatriates, there are some limitations in estimating, aggregating and reporting of the health indicators, and corrections may be required in the established estimation methodologies. We review the case of Qatar to see how its specific population characteristics affect its health indicators.

Methods

We used routinely collected data and reviewed and calculated a selected list of health indicators for Qatari and non-Qatari populations residing in Qatar. Mortality and cancer incidence rates, stratified by nationality, were used for this purpose. Also, a direct method was used to estimate completeness of the death registry, compared to the mortuary data.

Results

Age and sex distribution of Qatari and non-Qatari populations are completely different. Compared to the mortuary data, completeness of death registration for the total population was estimated at 98.9 and 94.3%, with and without considering overseas deaths, respectively. Both estimates were considerably higher than estimates from the indirect methods. Mortality patterns were different even after standardization of age and stratification of sex groups; male age-standardized mortality rates were 502.7 and 242.3 per 100,000 individuals, respectively for Qataris and non-Qataris. The rates were closer in female populations (315.6 and 291.5, respectively). The leading types of cancer incidents were different in Qataris and non-Qataris.

Conclusions

Expatriates are a dynamic population with high-turnover, different from Qatari population in their age-sex structure and health status. They are more likely to be young or middle-aged and are less affected by age related diseases and cancers. Also, they might be at higher risks for specific diseases or injuries. Aggregating indicators of Qatari and non-Qatari populations might be mis-leading for policy making purposes, and common estimation correction approaches cannot alleviate the limitations. High-proportion of expatriate population also imposes significant errors to some of the key demographic estimates (such as completeness of death registry). We recommend a standardized approach to consider nationality in addition to age and sex distributions for analysis of health data in countries with a high proportion of expatriates.

Access to medical care and its association with physical injury in adolescents: a cross-national analysis

BACKGROUND

Strong variations in injury rates have been documented cross-nationally. Historically, these have been attributed to contextual determinants, both social and physical. We explored an alternative, yet understudied, explanation for variations in adolescent injury reporting-that varying access to medical care is, in part, responsible for cross-national differences.

METHODS

Age-specific and gender-specific rates of medically treated injury (any, serious, by type) were estimated by country using the 2013/2014 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study (n=209 223). Available indicators of access to medical care included: (1) the Healthcare Access and Quality Index (HAQ; 39 countries); (2) the Universal Health Service Coverage Index (UHC; 37 countries) and (3) hospitals per 100 000 (30 countries) then physicians per 100 000 (36 countries). Ecological analyses were used to relate injury rates and indicators of access to medical care, and the proportion of between-country variation in reported injuries attributable to each indicator.

RESULTS

Adolescent injury risks were substantial and varied by country and sociodemographically. There was little correlation observed between national level injury rates and the HAQ and UHC indices, but modest associations between serious injury and physicians and hospitals per 100 000. Individual indicators explained up to 9.1% of the total intercountry variation in medically treated injuries and 24.6% of the variation in serious injuries.

CONCLUSIONS

Cross-national variations in reported adolescent serious injury may, in part, be attributable to national differences in access to healthcare services. Interpretation of cross-national patterns of injury and their potential aetiology should therefore consider access to medical care as a plausible explanation.

Understanding the confluence of injury and obesity in a Grade 2 obesity and above population

OBJECTIVE

Obesity and injury are major inter-related public health challenges. The objective of this study was to explore the perceptions of injury in people with severe obesity.

METHODS

A cross-sectional design was employed to capture injury perception and lifestyle habits via questionnaires. Weight (kg) and height (m) were measured by clinicians for patients attending a weight loss group program. Univariate, chi-square, ANOVA and ordinal regression analyses were undertaken.

RESULTS

There were 292 participants (67.1% female), mean age 49.3 years and Body Mass Index 47.2 kg/m² (range 30.7-91.9 kg/m²). Concern about having an injury was found in 83%, and 74.2% thought that weight would increase the likelihood of injury. A greater concern of being injured at baseline was associated with less weight loss at eight weeks (F=3.567; p=0.03). Depression, anxiety and sleepiness score were higher in those who reported greater 'Concern about having an injury'.

CONCLUSIONS

People with obesity fear injury and falling, which limits their willingness to exercise. Anxiety symptoms appear to exacerbate this connection.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH

In individuals with obesity, anxiety, sleepiness and depression are associated with a fear of being injured. Addressing fear and reducing anxiety may decrease barriers to participating in physical activity.

Injuries among Canadian children and youth: an analysis using the 2019 Canadian Health Survey on Children and Youth

This work provides an overview of injury patterns in Canadian children and youth aged 1 to 17 years. Self-reported data from the 2019 Canadian Health Survey on Children and Youth were used to calculate estimates for the percentage of Canadian children and youth who experienced a head injury or concussion, broken bone or fracture, or serious cut or puncture within the last 12 months, overall and by sex and age group. Head injuries and concussions (4.0%) were the most commonly reported, but the least likely to be seen by a medical professional. Injuries most frequently occurred while engaging in sports, physical activity or playing.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Road Injuries from 1990 to 2019

(1) Background: Understanding occurrence can help formulate effective preventative laws and regulations. However, the most recent global burden and road injuries (RIs) trends have not been reported. This study reports the burden of RIs globally from 1990 to 2019. (2) Methods: RIs data were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) described the trend and burden of RIs. We calculated age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) for the above indexes to evaluate the temporal trend of RIs. We evaluated the social-demographic index (SDI) with epidemiological RI parameters and reported proportions of age-standardized rates due to RI. (3) Results: In 2019, the global incidence of RIs reached 103.2 million. The EAPC of RI incidence increased, whereas deaths and DALYs decreased. Age-standardized incident rate (ASIR) was highest in low-middle SDI regions, age-standardized death rate (ASDR) was high in middle SDI regions, and age-standardized DALYs increased in low SDI regions. The highest accident rates were found in those aged 20-24 years old. Cyclist injuries were the leading RIs (34%), though pedestrian and motor vehicle accidents were the leading cause of death (37.4%, 37.6%) and DALYs (35.7%, 32.3%), respectively. (4) Conclusions: Over the past 30 years, RIs incidence increased annually, though death and DALY rates decreased. RIs places a considerable burden on public health in low SDI countries. Data should be used to develop and implement effective measures to reduce the burden of RIs.

Chest trauma epidemiology and emergency department management in a tertiary teaching hospital in Kigali, Rwanda

Introduction

Chest trauma is a major contributor to injury morbidity and mortality, and understanding trends is a crucial part of addressing this burden in low- and middle-income countries. This study reports the characteristics and emergency department (ED) management of chest trauma patients presenting to Rwanda's national teaching hospital in Kigali.

Methods

This descriptive analysis included a convenience sample of patients presenting to a single tertiary hospital ED with chest trauma from June to December 2017. Demographic data were collected as well as injury mechanism, thoracic and associated injuries, types of imaging obtained, and treatments performed. Chart review was conducted seven days post-admission to follow up on outcomes and additional diagnoses and interventions. Incidences were calculated with Microsoft Excel.

Results

Among the 62 patients included in this study, 74% were male, and mean age was 35 years. Most patients were injured in road traffic crashes (RTCs) (68%). Common chest injuries included lung contusions (79% of cases), rib fractures (44%), and pneumothoraces (37%). Head trauma was a frequent concurrent extra-thoracic injury (61%). Diagnostic imaging primarily included E-FAST ultrasound (92%) and chest x-ray (98%). The most common therapies included painkillers (100%), intravenous fluids (89%), and non-invasive oxygen (63%), while 29% underwent invasive intervention in the form of thoracostomy. The majority of patients were admitted (81%). Pneumonia was the most common complication to occur in the first seven days (32% of admitted patients). Ultimately, 40% of patients were discharged home within seven days of presentation, 50% remained hospitalized, and 5% died.

Conclusion

This study on the epidemiology of chest trauma in Rwanda can guide injury prevention and medical training priorities. Efforts should target prevention in young males and those involved in RTCs. ED physicians in Rwanda need to be prepared to diagnose and treat a variety of chest injuries with invasive and noninvasive means.

Mortality from fall: A descriptive analysis of a multicenter Indian trauma registry

INTRODUCTION

Fall is the second most common mechanism of trauma worldwide after road traffic injuries. Data on fall predominantly comes from the high-income countries (HICs) and mostly includes injuries in children and elderly. There are very few studies from low- and middle-income countries(LMICs) that describe fall related injuries other than fragility fractures in elderly. This study describes the profile of poly-trauma patients admitted with a history of 'fall' and assesses the variables associated with mortality.

METHOD

We analyzed data from the 'Towards Improved Trauma Care Outcome' (TITCO) database which prospectively collected data of poly-trauma patients admitted to four major tertiary care hospitals of India between 2013 to 2015. Patients across all age groups admitted to hospital with the history of 'fall'; were included in our study. Single bone fractures were excluded.  The Kaplan Meier survival analysis was used to estimate the survival probability in different age groups.

RESULTS

A total of 3686 patients were included in our study. The median age of the patients was 28 years (IQR: 9, 47) with the majority being males (73.6%). Almost one-third of the patients were within the age group of 0-14 (30.4%). Most of the patients (79.9%) had a diagnosis of traumatic brain injury (TBI). The overall in-hospital mortality was 18% (664), but higher at 39.0% among patients over 65 years of age. Probability of survival decreased with increase of age.

CONCLUSION

Falling from height is a common injury mechanism in India, occurring more in young males and usually associated with TBI. Isolated TBI and TBI associated with other injuries are the main contributors of mortality in fall injuries. Mortality from these injuries increased with age and ISS.

Identifying Situational Awareness Behaviors in Trauma Teams; a Nominal Group Technique Study

Introduction

Situational awareness (SA), as a nontechnical human factor, is critical to the success of a trauma team. This study aimed to identify representatives of behaviors supporting (desirable) and diminishing (undesirable) SA for trauma teams while performing the initial assessment of multi-trauma patients.

Methods

This Nominal Group Technique Study was conducted on twenty attending physicians from various specialties affiliated with Tehran University of Medical Sciences, who were invited to a nominal group technique meeting in 2020. Participants were asked to write down their proposed behaviors in silence. Subsequently, each participant shared their list with the group in a round-robin format, and clarifications were made through discussion. After categorizing the ideas, we asked participants to rate each behavior's importance on a five-point Likert scale. The consensus was defined as ≥70% agreement on a rating of 4 and 5.

Results

The final SA behaviors for the trauma team consisted of 29 (22 desirable and 7 undesirable) behaviors arranged in seven dimensions: resource allocation, anticipate and plan, avoid fixation errors, call for help if needed, prioritize attention, reassess patient, and shared mental model. The most important desirable and undesirable behaviors were identified in resource allocation (n=8) and avoid fixation errors (n=7) dimensions, respectively. Resource allocation behaviors consist of 'checking necessary equipment', 'allocating an alternative person(s) to do the required task if needed', 'assigning tasks to the right person(s)', and 'Addressing each team member with a requested task'. Avoid fixation errors behaviors were 'insisting on performing the procedure', 'making decisions without considering all available information', and 'emphasizing others' expertise in the diagnostic process'.

Conclusion

The proposed team SA behaviors may be used in assessing the trauma team performance and training program to promote trauma team SA.

Patterns of Head and Neck Injuries in Urban India: A Multicenter Study

Objective

The pattern of head and neck injuries has been well studied in high-income countries, but the data are limited in low- and middle-income countries, which are disproportionately affected by trauma. We examined a prospective multicenter database to describe patterns and outcomes of head and neck injuries in urban India.

Study Design

Retrospective review of trauma registry.

Setting

Four tertiary public hospitals in Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata.

Methods

We identified patients with isolated head and neck injuries using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes and excluded those with traumatic brain and/or ophthalmic injuries and injuries in other body regions.

Results

Our cohort included 171 patients. Most were males (80.7%) and adults aged 18 to 55 years (60.2%). Falls (36.8%) and road traffic accidents (36.3%) were the 2 predominant mechanisms of injury. Overall, 35.7% required intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and 11.7% died. More than 20% of patients were diagnosed with “unspecified injury of neck.” Those with the diagnosis had a higher ICU admission rate (51.4% vs 31.3%, P = .025) and mortality rate (27.0% vs 7.5%, P = .001) than those without the diagnosis.

Conclusion

Isolated head and neck injuries are not highly prevalent among Indian trauma patients admitted to urban tertiary hospitals but are associated with high mortality. Over a fifth of patients were diagnosed with “unspecified injury of neck,” which is associated with more severe clinical outcomes. Exactly what this diagnosis entails and encompasses remains unclear.

Disadvantaged by More Than Distance: A Systematic Literature Review of Injury in Rural Australia

Rural populations experience injury-related mortality and morbidity rates 1.5 times greater than metropolitan residents. Motivated by a call for stronger epidemiological evidence around rural injuries to inform prevention, a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature published between January 2010 and March 2021 was undertaken to explore the epidemiology of rural injury and associated risk factors in Australia. A subsequent aim was to explore definitions of rurality used in injury prevention studies. There were 151 papers included in the review, utilizing 23 unique definitions to describe rurality. People living in rural areas were more likely to be injured, for injuries to be more severe, and for injuries to have greater resulting morbidity than people in metropolitan areas. The increase in severity reflects the mechanism of rural injury, with rural injury events more likely to involve a higher energy exchange. Risk-taking behavior and alcohol consumption were significant risk factors for rural injury, along with rural cluster demographics such as age, sex, high socio-economic disadvantage, and health-related comorbidities. As injury in rural populations is multifactorial and nonhomogeneous, a wide variety of evidence-based strategies are needed. This requires funding, political leadership for policy formation and development, and implementation of evidence-based prevention interventions.

Methodological considerations in injury burden of disease studies across Europe: a systematic literature review

Background

Calculating the disease burden due to injury is complex, as it requires many methodological choices. Until now, an overview of the methodological design choices that have been made in burden of disease (BoD) studies in injury populations is not available. The aim of this systematic literature review was to identify existing injury BoD studies undertaken across Europe and to comprehensively review the methodological design choices and assumption parameters that have been made to calculate years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD) in these studies.

Methods

We searched EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central, Google Scholar, and Web of Science, and the grey literature supplemented by handsearching, for BoD studies. We included injury BoD studies that quantified the BoD expressed in YLL, YLD, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in countries within the European Region between early-1990 and mid-2021.

Results

We retrieved 2,914 results of which 48 performed an injury-specific BoD assessment. Single-country independent and Global Burden of Disease (GBD)-linked injury BoD studies were performed in 11 European countries. Approximately 79% of injury BoD studies reported the BoD by external cause-of-injury. Most independent studies used the incidence-based approach to calculate YLDs. About half of the injury disease burden studies applied disability weights (DWs) developed by the GBD study. Almost all independent injury studies have determined YLL using national life tables.

Conclusions

Considerable methodological variation across independent injury BoD assessments was observed; differences were mainly apparent in the design choices and assumption parameters towards injury YLD calculations, implementation of DWs, and the choice of life table for YLL calculations. Development and use of guidelines for performing and reporting of injury BoD studies is crucial to enhance transparency and comparability of injury BoD estimates across Europe and beyond.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13925-z.

Injury in Children with Developmental Disorders: A 1:1 Nested Case-Control Study Using Multiple Datasets in Taiwan

Although past studies have identified predictors related to child injuries with developmental disorders, national-level research in Asia is limited. The objective of this study was to explore the risk factors for child injuries with developmental disorders in Taiwan using a national-level integrated database for the period between 2004-2015 (The Maternal and Child Health Database, National Health Insurance Research Database, Census Registry, and Indigenous Household Registration). Children younger than 12 years old who had records of visiting the ER or being hospitalized due to injury or without injury were included in this study. A 1:1 nested case-control study (injury vs. noninjury) to examine the risk factors for child injury with developmental disorder was performed. A total of 2,167,930 children were enrolled. The risk factors were associated with repeated ER visits or hospitalization: being indigenous (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.51; CI: 1.45-1.57); having a developmental disorder (AOR: 1.74; CI: 1.70-1.78); and having parents with illicit drug use (AOR: 1.48; CI: 1.32-1.66), alcohol abuse (AOR: 1.21; CI: 1.07-1.37), or a history of mental illness (AOR: 1.43; CI: 1.41-1.46). Being indigenous, having developmental disorders, and having parents with history of illicit drug use, alcohol abuse, or mental illness were predictors related to injuries in children.

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10-24 years during the past three decades.

METHODS

Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10-14, 15-19, and 20-24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10-24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010-19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010-19.

INTERPRETATION

As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low-middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Chest Trauma Management in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Trauma is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide and disproportionately affects those in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Globally, two-thirds of injured patients sustain trauma to the thoracic cavity. Further research, capacity building, and increased awareness are needed to limit the high thoracic trauma-associated morbidity and mortality in LMICs.

Angiogenic Effect of a Nanoniosomal Deferoxamine-Loaded Poly(vinyl alcohol)-Egg White Film as a Promising Wound Dressing

Owing to the noticeable increase in the number of patients with impaired wound healing capabilities, developing bioactive wound dressings with supportive physicomechanical and biological properties for clinical wound management has attracted much more attention nowadays. In this regard, engineered dressings with angiogenesis potential are vital for accelerated tissue regeneration. In the current study, nanoniosomal deferoxamine (DFO)-loaded transparent films of egg white-poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA/EW/ND) were successfully fabricated at three different PVA/EW ratios (1:0, 1:1, and 1:1.5 wt/wt %) through the thin film hydration and solvent casting methods. The developed films' characterizations were carried out using scanning electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy analysis, uniaxial tensile strength, water uptake, water vapor transmission rate, in vitro degradation, and drug release. The results demonstrated that the various weight ratios of PVA/EW have a significant effect on the microscopic morphology, equilibrium swelling, degradation, and mechanical properties of the films. The drug release profile exhibited a sustained release of DFO with controlled burst-lag phases resembling the Korsmeyer-Peppas pattern. The cytotoxicity and adhesion analysis using human dermal fibroblasts displays the biocompatibility of the developed PVA/EW/ND films and the formation of cellular colonies on the surface. The in vitro angiogenic capability of the developed films evaluated by the scratch wound assay and microbead-assisted tube formation study showed a significant increase in the rate of migration of human umbilical vein endothelial cells and in the number of tube-like structures. Therefore, the achieved results suggest that the presented PVA/EW/ND film has promising potential for effective wound healing applications.

Evaluation of mobile emergency service with the use of mixed method

This is an evaluative study, with sequential explanatory mixed methods, aimed at evaluating the performance of the Brazilian Mobile Emergency Medical Service (SAMU) in the Grande ABC region, located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. In the quantitative approach, an analysis of interrupted time series was performed to evaluate the immediate and gradual effects of the SAMU on hospital mortality due to acute myocardial infarction. The qualitative approach was conducted via semi-structured interviews and a thematic analysis was applied for the interpretation of the results, exploring the attitudes and values of the interviewees regarding the performance of SAMU in the Grande ABC region. Interrupted time series analysis showed a -0.04% reduction in the underlying mortality rate since SAMU implementation (95%CI: -0.0816; -0.0162; p-value = 0.0040) and a reduction in the mortality level, -2.89 (95%CI: -4.3293; -1.4623; p-value = 0.0001), both with statistical significance. To improve the robustness of the results, a control region was used, showing a statistically significant difference in the post-intervention result of -0.0639 (95%CI: -0.1060; -0.0219; p-value = 0.0001). The interviews revealed that the SAMU has the potential to intervene in the prognosis of transported cases, however, challenges related to the availability of beds, expansion of telemedicine, and continuous training of professionals for qualified emergency care in the event of a heart attack must be overcome. The results indicate that the studied intervention is part of a set of factors that, together, generate more conditions to achieve a better result.

Epidemiology and outcomes of severe injury patients: Nationwide community-based study in Korea

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to estimate the annual incidence of various severe injuries, case fatality rates, and case disability rates for patients in Korea.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This community-based observational study involved all residents in Korea between Jan. 1, 2018, and Dec. 31, 2018. Nationwide data were retrieved from the patient care report of the National Fire Agency and hospital medical records review of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Severe injury was defined as any injury that resulted in emergency medical service (EMS) use and any field-based physiologic abnormality: systolic blood pressure ≤90 mm Hg, respiratory rate <10 or >29 per min, or AVPU scale nonalert. Crude and adjusted incidence rates were calculated without any exclusion. Outcomes including the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) at hospital discharge were assessed according to a medical review. Case-fatality and case-disability rates were calculated after excluding patients with unknown vital status.

RESULTS

During the one-year period, 36,363 severe injuries occurred, yielding a crude annual incidence rate of 70.9 per 100,000 population; 57.8% were traumatic injuries, and 42.2% were nontraumatic injuries. The adjusted annual incidence rates were 61.7/100,000 for all severe injuries, 35.3/100,000 for traumatic injuries, and 26.4/100,000 for nontraumatic injuries. The case-fatality rate was 24.3% for all severe injuries, 27.0% for traumatic injuries, and 21.0% for nontraumatic injuries. The case-disability rate of GOS 3,4 was 6.0%, and the case-disability rate of GOS 2-4 was 16.4% for all severe injury patients.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide community-based study revealed incidence rates and outcomes of severe injury patients in Korea.

Association between Daily Pattern of Physical Activity and Depression: A Systematic Review

Recent research suggested that daily pattern of physical activity (PA) may have an important association with depression, but findings are limited and contradictory. Our aim was to conduct a systematic review of the literature to summarize the literature evidence on the association between timing of PA and depression. A comprehensive search of PubMed/Medline and Scopus databases has been performed, and a total of five manuscripts have been thoroughly reviewed. The performed descriptive analysis shows lower levels of PA among individuals with depression or depressive symptoms, although evidence on the 24 h pattern of PA and depression is limited. An interesting finding is the association between lower PA during the morning, higher PA late in the evening (night), and depression or depressive symptoms. However, definitive conclusions could not be drawn due to the observational nature of the studies, their limited number, the high heterogeneity in the sample populations, and the studies’ differing outcome definitions and exposure assessments. Future studies considering not only the level of PA but also its daily variability might be important to further explore this novel area of research.

The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

BACKGROUND

Injury remains a major concern to public health in the European region. Previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed wide variation in injury death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates across Europe, indicating injury inequality gaps between sub-regions and countries. The objectives of this study were to: 1) compare GBD 2019 estimates on injury mortality and DALYs across European sub-regions and countries by cause-of-injury category and sex; 2) examine changes in injury DALY rates over a 20 year-period by cause-of-injury category, sub-region and country; and 3) assess inequalities in injury mortality and DALY rates across the countries.

METHODS

We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2019 results on injuries in 44 European countries from 2000 to 2019. Inequality in DALY rates between these countries was assessed by calculating the DALY rate ratio between the highest-ranking country and lowest-ranking country in each year.

RESULTS

In 2019, in Eastern Europe 80 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71 to 89] people per 100,000 died from injuries; twice as high compared to Central Europe (38 injury deaths per 100,000; 95% UI 34 to 42) and three times as high compared to Western Europe (27 injury deaths per 100,000; 95%UI 25 to 28). The injury DALY rates showed less pronounced differences between Eastern (5129 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 4547 to 5864), Central (2940 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 2452 to 3546) and Western Europe (1782 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 1523 to 2115). Injury DALY rate was lowest in Italy (1489 DALYs per 100,000) and highest in Ukraine (5553 DALYs per 100,000). The difference in injury DALY rates by country was larger for males compared to females. The DALY rate ratio was highest in 2005, with DALY rate in the lowest-ranking country (Russian Federation) 6.0 times higher compared to the highest-ranking country (Malta). After 2005, the DALY rate ratio between the lowest- and the highest-ranking country gradually decreased to 3.7 in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Injury mortality and DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in Western Europe, although differences in injury DALY rates declined rapidly, particularly in the past decade. The injury DALY rate ratio of highest- and lowest-ranking country declined from 2005 onwards, indicating declining inequalities in injuries between European countries.

Dynamic Bayesian network for predicting physiological changes, organ dysfunctions and mortality risk in critical trauma patients

BACKGROUND

Critical trauma patients are particularly prone to increased mortality risk; hence, an accurate prediction of their conditions enables early identification of patients' mortality status. Thus, we aimed to develop and validate a real-time prediction model for physiological changes, organ dysfunctions and mortality risk in critical trauma patients.

METHODS

We used Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) to model complicated relationships of physiological variables across time slices, accessing data of trauma patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database (MIMIC-III) (n = 2915) and validated with patients' data from ICU admissions at the Changhai Hospital (ICU-CH) (n = 1909). The DBN model's evaluation included the predictive ability of physiological changes, organ dysfunctions and mortality risk.

RESULTS

Our DBN model included two static variables (age and sex) and 18 dynamic physiological variables. The differences in ratios between the real values and the 24- and 48-h predicted values of most physiological variables were within 5% in the two datasets. The accuracy of our DBN model for predicting renal, hepatic, cardiovascular and hematologic dysfunctions was more than 0.8.The calculated area under the curve (AUC) from receiver operating characteristic curves and 95% confidence interval for predicting the 24- and 48-h mortality risk were 0.977 (0.967-0.988) and 0.958 (0.945-0.971) in the MIMIC-III and 0.967 (0.947-0.987) and 0.946 (0.925-0.967) in ICU-CH.

CONCLUSIONS

A DBN is a promising method for predicting medical temporal data such as trauma patients' mortality risk, demonstrated by high AUC scores and validation by a real-life ICU scenario; thus, our DBN prediction model can be used as a real-time tool to predict physiological changes, organ dysfunctions and mortality risk during ICU admissions.