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Gilbert NA, Kolbe SR, Eyster HN, Grinde AR. Can internal range structure predict range shifts? J Anim Ecol 2024; 93:1556-1566. [PMID: 39221576 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.14168] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2024] [Accepted: 08/08/2024] [Indexed: 09/04/2024]
Abstract
Poleward and uphill range shifts are a common-but variable-response to climate change. We lack understanding regarding this interspecific variation; for example, functional traits show weak or mixed ability to predict range shifts. Characteristics of species' ranges may enhance prediction of range shifts. However, the explanatory power of many range characteristics-especially within-range abundance patterns-remains untested. Here, we introduce a hypothesis framework for predicting range-limit population trends and range shifts from the internal structure of the geographic range, specifically range edge hardness, defined as abundance within range edges relative to the whole range. The inertia hypothesis predicts that high edge abundance facilitates expansions along the leading range edge but creates inertia (either more individuals must disperse or perish) at the trailing range edge such that the trailing edge recedes slowly. In contrast, the limitation hypothesis suggests that hard range edges are the signature of strong limits (e.g. biotic interactions) that force faster contraction of the trailing edge but block expansions at the leading edge of the range. Using a long-term avian monitoring dataset from northern Minnesota, USA, we estimated population trends for 35 trailing-edge species and 18 leading-edge species and modelled their population trends as a function of range edge hardness derived from eBird data. We found limited evidence of associations between range edge hardness and range-limit population trends. Trailing-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be declining, demonstrating weak support for the limitation hypothesis. In contrast, leading-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be increasing, demonstrating weak support for the inertia hypothesis. These opposing results for the leading and trailing range edges might suggest that different mechanisms underpin range expansions and contractions, respectively. As data and state-of-the-art modelling efforts continue to proliferate, we will be ever better equipped to map abundance patterns within species' ranges, offering opportunities to anticipate range shifts through the lens of the geographic range.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neil A Gilbert
- Department of Integrative Biology, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
- Department of Integrative Biology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Stephen R Kolbe
- Natural Resources Research Institute, University of Minnesota Duluth, Duluth, Minnesota, USA
| | - Harold N Eyster
- Department of Plant Biology and Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, USA
- The Nature Conservancy, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Alexis R Grinde
- Natural Resources Research Institute, University of Minnesota Duluth, Duluth, Minnesota, USA
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2
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Ke C, Gong LX, Geng Y, Wang ZQ, Zhang WJ, Feng J, Jiang TL. Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2024:e14310. [PMID: 38842221 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14310] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2023] [Revised: 03/22/2024] [Accepted: 04/20/2024] [Indexed: 06/07/2024]
Abstract
Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Can Ke
- Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal Resource Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Ecology of Education Ministry, Institute of Grassland Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
| | - Li-Xin Gong
- Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal Resource Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Ecology of Education Ministry, Institute of Grassland Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
| | - Yang Geng
- Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal Resource Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Ecology of Education Ministry, Institute of Grassland Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
| | - Zhi-Qiang Wang
- Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal Resource Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Ecology of Education Ministry, Institute of Grassland Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
| | - Wen-Jun Zhang
- Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal Resource Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Ecology of Education Ministry, Institute of Grassland Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
| | - Jiang Feng
- Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal Resource Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Ecology of Education Ministry, Institute of Grassland Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
- College of Life Science, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun, China
| | - Ting-Lei Jiang
- Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal Resource Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
- Key Laboratory of Vegetation Ecology of Education Ministry, Institute of Grassland Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China
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3
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Chan WP, Lenoir J, Mai GS, Kuo HC, Chen IC, Shen SF. Climate velocities and species tracking in global mountain regions. Nature 2024; 629:114-120. [PMID: 38538797 PMCID: PMC11062926 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07264-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/01/2024] [Indexed: 04/06/2024]
Abstract
Mountain ranges contain high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species that are facing anthropogenic climate change1,2. Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as the climate warms3,4. However, a global analysis of the velocities of isotherm shifts along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions5. Here we address this issue by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally, both by using satellite data (SLRT) and by using the laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour6 (that is, the moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALRT)). By dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or the MALRT, we provide maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (greater than 11.67 m per year for the SLRT; greater than 8.25 m per year for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates; for example, northern Sumatra, the Brazilian highlands and southern Africa. By linking these velocities to the velocities of species range shifts, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting that range shift dynamics would persist even if we managed to curb climate-change trajectories. Our findings are key for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions that we have identified.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei-Ping Chan
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
- Bachelor Program in Data Science and Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Rowland Institute at Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Jonathan Lenoir
- UMR CNRS 7058, Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés (EDYSAN), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France
| | - Guan-Shuo Mai
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Hung-Chi Kuo
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - I-Ching Chen
- Department of Life Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan.
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
| | - Sheng-Feng Shen
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
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4
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Martins PM, Anderson MJ, Sweatman WL, Punnett AJ. Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2307525121. [PMID: 38557189 PMCID: PMC11009622 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2307525121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2023] [Accepted: 12/25/2023] [Indexed: 04/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paulo Mateus Martins
- New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study, Massey University, Auckland0745, New Zealand
- PRIMER-e, Quest Research Limited, Auckland0793, New Zealand
| | - Marti J. Anderson
- New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study, Massey University, Auckland0745, New Zealand
- PRIMER-e, Quest Research Limited, Auckland0793, New Zealand
| | - Winston L. Sweatman
- School of Mathematical and Computational Sciences, Massey University, Auckland0745, New Zealand
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5
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Hällfors MH, Heikkinen RK, Kuussaari M, Lehikoinen A, Luoto M, Pöyry J, Virkkala R, Saastamoinen M, Kujala H. Recent range shifts of moths, butterflies, and birds are driven by the breadth of their climatic niche. Evol Lett 2024; 8:89-100. [PMID: 38370541 PMCID: PMC10872046 DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrad004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2022] [Revised: 01/26/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term selection to past climates have shaped species' tolerances, metrics describing species' contemporary climatic niches may provide an alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change. Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species across a boreal 1,100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of potential mechanistic underpinnings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria H Hällfors
- Research Centre for Environmental Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Risto K Heikkinen
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mikko Kuussaari
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Miska Luoto
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Raimo Virkkala
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Marjo Saastamoinen
- Research Centre for Environmental Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Helsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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6
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Aben J, Travis JMJ, Van Dyck H, Vanwambeke SO. Integrating learning into animal range dynamics under rapid human-induced environmental change. Ecol Lett 2024; 27:e14367. [PMID: 38361475 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2023] [Revised: 12/12/2023] [Accepted: 01/03/2024] [Indexed: 02/17/2024]
Abstract
Human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) is creating environments deviating considerably from natural habitats in which species evolved. Concurrently, climate warming is pushing species' climatic envelopes to geographic regions that offer novel ecological conditions. The persistence of species is likely affected by the interplay between the degree of ecological novelty and phenotypic plasticity, which in turn may shape an organism's range-shifting ability. Current modelling approaches that forecast animal ranges are characterized by a static representation of the relationship between habitat use and fitness, which may bias predictions under conditions imposed by HIREC. We argue that accounting for dynamic species-resource relationships can increase the ecological realism of range shift predictions. Our rationale builds on the concepts of ecological fitting, the process whereby individuals form successful novel biotic associations based on the suite of traits they carry at the time of encountering the novel condition, and behavioural plasticity, in particular learning. These concepts have revolutionized our view on fitness in novel ecological settings, and the way these processes may influence species ranges under HIREC. We have integrated them into a model of range expansion as a conceptual proof of principle highlighting the potentially substantial role of learning ability in range shifts under HIREC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Job Aben
- Center for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, UCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
- Laboratoire Écologie, Systématique et Évolution, Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- CentraleSupélec, ENS Paris-Saclay, CNRS, LMPS-Laboratoire de Mécanique Paris-Saclay, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Evolutionary Ecology Group, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Justin M J Travis
- The Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Hans Van Dyck
- Behavioural Ecology and Conservation Group, Earth & Life Institute, UCLouvain, Belgium
| | - Sophie O Vanwambeke
- Center for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, UCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
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7
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de Araujo HFP, Machado CCC, da Silva JMC. The distribution and conservation of areas with microendemic species in a biodiversity hotspot: a multi-taxa approach. PeerJ 2024; 12:e16779. [PMID: 38239293 PMCID: PMC10795537 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.16779] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2023] [Accepted: 12/18/2023] [Indexed: 01/22/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Microendemic species are species with very small geographic distributions (ranges). Their presence delimitates areas with microendemic species (AMs), denoting a spatial unit comprising at least one population of at least one microendemic species. AMs are assumed to be distributed distinctively and associated with specific ecological, historical, and anthropogenic attributes. However, the level of influence of these factors remains unclear. Thus, we studied the distribution patterns of microendemic species within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest to (a) identify the region's AMs; (b) evaluate whether ecological (latitude, altitude, distance from the coastline), historical (climate stability), and anthropogenic (ecological integrity) attributes distinguish AMs from non-AMs; and (c) assess the conservation status of the Atlantic Forest's AMs. Methods We mapped the ranges of 1,362 microendemic species of angiosperms, freshwater fishes, and terrestrial vertebrates (snakes, passerine birds, and small mammals) to identify the region's AMs. Further, spatial autoregressive logit regression models were used to evaluate whether latitude, altitude, distance from the coastline, Climate Stability Index, and ecological integrity can be used to discern AMs from non-AMs. Moreover, the AMs' conservation status was assessed by evaluating the region's ecological integrity and conservation efforts (measured as the proportion of AMs in protected areas). Results We identified 261 AMs for angiosperm, 205 AMs for freshwater fishes, and 102 AMs for terrestrial vertebrates in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, totaling 474 AMs covering 23.8% of the region. The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is a large and complex biogeographic mosaic where AMs represent islands or archipelagoes surrounded by transition areas with no microendemic species. All local attributes help to distinguish AMs from non-AMs, but their impacts vary across taxonomic groups. Around 69% of AMs have low ecological integrity and poor conservation efforts, indicating that most microendemic species are under threat. This study provides insights into the biogeography of one of the most important global biodiversity hotspots, creating a foundation for comparative studies using other tropical forest regions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Célia C. C. Machado
- Center of Applied Biological and Social Sciences, State University of Paraíba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil
| | - José Maria Cardoso da Silva
- Department of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, United States of America
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8
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Bahlai CA. Forecasting insect dynamics in a changing world. CURRENT OPINION IN INSECT SCIENCE 2023; 60:101133. [PMID: 37858790 DOI: 10.1016/j.cois.2023.101133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Revised: 10/04/2023] [Accepted: 10/13/2023] [Indexed: 10/21/2023]
Abstract
Predicting how insects will respond to stressors through time is difficult because of the diversity of insects, environments, and approaches used to monitor and model. Forecasting models take correlative/statistical, mechanistic models, and integrated forms; in some cases, temporal processes can be inferred from spatial models. Because of heterogeneity associated with broad community measurements, models are often unable to identify mechanistic explanations. Many present efforts to forecast insect dynamics are restricted to single-species models, which can offer precise predictions but limited generalizability. Trait-based approaches may offer a good compromise that limits the masking of the ranges of responses while still offering insight. Regardless of the modeling approach, the data used to parameterize a forecasting model should be carefully evaluated for temporal autocorrelation, minimum data needs, and sampling biases in the data. Forecasting models can be tested using near-term predictions and revised to improve future forecasts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christie A Bahlai
- Department of Biological Sciences, Kent State University, Kent, OH 44242, USA; Environmental Science and Design Research Institute, Kent State University, Kent, OH 44242, USA.
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9
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Lovell RSL, Collins S, Martin SH, Pigot AL, Phillimore AB. Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2023; 98:2243-2270. [PMID: 37558208 DOI: 10.1111/brv.13004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2022] [Revised: 07/20/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023]
Abstract
In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These 'space-for-time substitutions' (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable - population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate-biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate-biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca S L Lovell
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Sinead Collins
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Simon H Martin
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Alex L Pigot
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Albert B Phillimore
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
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10
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Martínez-Vilalta J, García-Valdés R, Jump A, Vilà-Cabrera A, Mencuccini M. Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2023; 240:23-40. [PMID: 37501525 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2023] [Accepted: 06/20/2023] [Indexed: 07/29/2023]
Abstract
Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jordi Martínez-Vilalta
- CREAF, E08193, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Catalonia, Spain
- Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, E08193, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Catalonia, Spain
| | - Raúl García-Valdés
- CREAF, E08193, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Catalonia, Spain
- Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia (CTFC), E25280, Solsona, Spain
- Department of Biology, Geology, Physics and Inorganic Chemistry, School of Experimental Sciences and Technology, Rey Juan Carlos University, E28933, Móstoles, Madrid, Spain
| | - Alistair Jump
- Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA, Stirling, UK
| | - Albert Vilà-Cabrera
- CREAF, E08193, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Catalonia, Spain
- Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA, Stirling, UK
| | - Maurizio Mencuccini
- CREAF, E08193, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Catalonia, Spain
- ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys 23, E08010, Barcelona, Spain
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11
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Howard C, Marjakangas EL, Morán-Ordóñez A, Milanesi P, Abuladze A, Aghababyan K, Ajder V, Arkumarev V, Balmer DE, Bauer HG, Beale CM, Bino T, Boyla KA, Burfield IJ, Burke B, Caffrey B, Chodkiewicz T, Del Moral JC, Mazal VD, Fernández N, Fornasari L, Gerlach B, Godinho C, Herrando S, Ieronymidou C, Johnston A, Jovicevic M, Kalyakin M, Keller V, Knaus P, Kotrošan D, Kuzmenko T, Leitão D, Lindström Å, Maxhuni Q, Mihelič T, Mikuska T, Molina B, Nagy K, Noble D, Øien IJ, Paquet JY, Pladevall C, Portolou D, Radišić D, Rajkov S, Rajković DZ, Raudonikis L, Sattler T, Saveljić D, Shimmings P, Sjenicic J, Šťastný K, Stoychev S, Strus I, Sudfeldt C, Sultanov E, Szép T, Teufelbauer N, Uzunova D, van Turnhout CAM, Velevski M, Vikstrøm T, Vintchevski A, Voltzit O, Voříšek P, Wilk T, Zurell D, Brotons L, Lehikoinen A, Willis SG. Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability. Nat Commun 2023; 14:4304. [PMID: 37474503 PMCID: PMC10359363 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2022] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 07/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christine Howard
- Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
| | - Emma-Liina Marjakangas
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez
- Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- Forest Science and Tecnology Centre (CTFC), Carretera vella de Sant Llorenç de Morunys km 2, 25280, Sant Llorenç de Morunys, Spain
| | - Pietro Milanesi
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
- Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences (BiGeA), University of Bologna, Via F. Selmi 3, 40126, Bologna, Italy
| | - Aleksandre Abuladze
- Institute of Zoology, Ilia State University, Kakutsa Cholokashvili Ave 3 / 5, Tbilisi, 0162, Georgia
| | - Karen Aghababyan
- BirdLinks Armenia (former TSE-Towards Sustainable Ecosystems) NGO, 87b Dimitrov, apt 14, Yerevan, Armenia
| | - Vitalie Ajder
- Society for Birds and Nature Protection, Leova, Republic of Moldova
- Moldova State University, A.Mateevici str. 60, Chişinău, Republic of Moldova
| | - Volen Arkumarev
- Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds/BirdLife Bulgaria, Sofia 1111, Yavorov complex, bl. 71, en. 1, ap. 1, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Dawn E Balmer
- British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU, UK
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | - Hans-Günther Bauer
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- Max-Planck Institute of Animal Behaviour, Am Obstberg 1, 78315, Radolfzell, Germany
| | - Colin M Beale
- York Environmental Sustainability Institute, University of York, York, YO10 5NG, UK
- Department of Biology, University of York, YO10 5DD, York, UK
| | - Taulant Bino
- Albanian Ornithological Society, Rr. "Vaso Pasha", Nd. 4, Apt. 3, 1004, Tirana, Albania
| | - Kerem Ali Boyla
- WWF Turkey, Büyük Postane Caddesi No: 19 Kat: 5, 34420, Bahçekapı-Fatih, İstanbul, Turkey
| | - Ian J Burfield
- BirdLife International, David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK
| | - Brian Burke
- BirdWatch Ireland, Unit 20, Block D, Bullford Business Campus, Kilcoole, Greystones, County Wicklow, Ireland
| | - Brian Caffrey
- BirdWatch Ireland, Unit 20, Block D, Bullford Business Campus, Kilcoole, Greystones, County Wicklow, Ireland
| | - Tomasz Chodkiewicz
- Museum and Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Wilcza 64, 00-679, Warszawa, Poland
- Polish Society for the Protection of Birds, Odrowąża 24, 05-270, Marki, Poland
| | - Juan Carlos Del Moral
- Sociedad Española de Ornitología (SEO/BirdLife), Melquiades Biencinto, 34, 28053, Madrid, Spain
| | - Vlatka Dumbovic Mazal
- Institute for Environment and Nature, Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development, Radnicka cesta 80, 10 000, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Néstor Fernández
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Inst. of Biology, Martin Luther Univ. Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
| | | | - Bettina Gerlach
- DDA-Federation of German Avifaunists, An den Speichern 2, D-48157, Münster, Germany
| | - Carlos Godinho
- MED-Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development; LabOr-Laboratório de Ornitologia Universidade de Évora Pólo da Mitra, Apartado 94, 7002-774, Évora, Portugal
| | - Sergi Herrando
- Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- Catalan Ornithological Institute, Natural History Museum of Barcelona, Plaça Leonardo da Vinci 4-5, 08019, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Alison Johnston
- Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
| | | | - Mikhail Kalyakin
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- Zoological Museum of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Bolshaya Nikitskaya Str., 2, Moscow, 125009, Russia
| | - Verena Keller
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | - Peter Knaus
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Dražen Kotrošan
- Ornithological society "Naše ptice", Semira Frašte 6, 71 000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
| | - Tatiana Kuzmenko
- Ukrainian Society for the Protection of Birds, P.O. Box 33, Kyiv, 01103, Ukraine
| | - Domingos Leitão
- Sociedade Portuguesa para o Estudo das Aves, Av. Almirante Gago Coutinho, 46A, 1700-031, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Åke Lindström
- Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Qenan Maxhuni
- Kosovo Ornithological Society, Str. Hysni Gashi no. 28, Kalabri, 10 000, Prishtinë, Republic of Kosovo
| | - Tomaž Mihelič
- DOPPS-BirdLife Slovenia, Tržaška c. 2, SI, 1000, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Tibor Mikuska
- Croatian Society for Birds and Nature Protection, Gundulićeva 19a, HR-31000, Osijek, Croatia
| | - Blas Molina
- Sociedad Española de Ornitología (SEO/BirdLife), Melquiades Biencinto, 34, 28053, Madrid, Spain
| | - Károly Nagy
- MME BirdLife Hungary, 1121 Költő u. 21, Budapest, Hungary
| | - David Noble
- British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU, UK
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | | | | | - Clara Pladevall
- Andorra Research + Innovation, Av. Rocafort 21-23, AD600, Sant Julià de Lòria, Andorra
| | - Danae Portolou
- Hellenic Ornithological Society / BirdLife Greece, Agiou Konstantinou 52, Athens, 10437, Greece
| | - Dimitrije Radišić
- University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Biology and Ecology, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
| | - Saša Rajkov
- Center for Biodiversity Research, Maksima Gorkog 40/3, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Draženko Z Rajković
- Center for Biodiversity Research, Maksima Gorkog 40/3, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Liutauras Raudonikis
- Lithuanian Ornithological Society, Naugarduko st. 47-3, LT-03208, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Thomas Sattler
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Darko Saveljić
- Environmental Protection Agency of Montenegro, IV proleterske 19, 81000, Podgorica, Montenegro
| | - Paul Shimmings
- BirdLife Norway. Sandgata 30b, NO-7012, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Jovica Sjenicic
- Ornithological society "Naše ptice", Semira Frašte 6, 71 000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Society for Research and Protection of Biodiversity, Mladena Stojanovica 2, 78 000, Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina
| | - Karel Šťastný
- Czech University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Dept. of Ecology, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6-Suchdol, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Stoycho Stoychev
- Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds/BirdLife Bulgaria, Sofia 1111, Yavorov complex, bl. 71, en. 1, ap. 1, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Iurii Strus
- Nature reserve "Roztochya", Sichovyh Striltsiv 7, 81070, Ivano-Frankove, Ukraine
| | - Christoph Sudfeldt
- DDA-Federation of German Avifaunists, An den Speichern 2, D-48157, Münster, Germany
| | - Elchin Sultanov
- Azerbaijan Ornithological Society, M. Mushfiq 4B, ap.60, Baku, AZ1004, Azerbaijan Republic
| | - Tibor Szép
- MME BirdLife Hungary, 1121 Költő u. 21, Budapest, Hungary
- University of Nyíregyháza, 4400 Sóstói út 31/b, Nyíregyháza, Hungary
| | | | - Danka Uzunova
- Macedonian Ecological Society, Blvd. Boris Trajkovski Str. 7, 9a, Skopje, N, Macedonia
| | - Chris A M van Turnhout
- Sovon-Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
- Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Metodija Velevski
- Macedonian Ecological Society, Blvd. Boris Trajkovski Str. 7, 9a, Skopje, N, Macedonia
| | - Thomas Vikstrøm
- Dansk Ornitologisk Forening (DOF-BirdLife DK), Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Olga Voltzit
- Zoological Museum of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Bolshaya Nikitskaya Str., 2, Moscow, 125009, Russia
| | - Petr Voříšek
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- Czech Society for Ornithology, Na Bělidle 34, 15000, Prague 5, Czechia
| | - Tomasz Wilk
- Polish Society for the Protection of Birds, Odrowąża 24, 05-270, Marki, Poland
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Lluís Brotons
- Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- Forest Science and Tecnology Centre (CTFC), Carretera vella de Sant Llorenç de Morunys km 2, 25280, Sant Llorenç de Morunys, Spain
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- CSIC, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Spain
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | - Stephen G Willis
- Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
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12
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García Criado M, Myers-Smith IH, Bjorkman AD, Normand S, Blach-Overgaard A, Thomas HJD, Eskelinen A, Happonen K, Alatalo JM, Anadon-Rosell A, Aubin I, Te Beest M, Betway-May KR, Blok D, Buras A, Cerabolini BEL, Christie K, Cornelissen JHC, Forbes BC, Frei ER, Grogan P, Hermanutz L, Hollister RD, Hudson J, Iturrate-Garcia M, Kaarlejärvi E, Kleyer M, Lamarque LJ, Lembrechts JJ, Lévesque E, Luoto M, Macek P, May JL, Prevéy JS, Schaepman-Strub G, Sheremetiev SN, Siegwart Collier L, Soudzilovskaia NA, Trant A, Venn SE, Virkkala AM. Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome. Nat Commun 2023; 14:3837. [PMID: 37380662 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2022] [Accepted: 06/15/2023] [Indexed: 06/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Anne D Bjorkman
- Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Signe Normand
- Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | | | - Haydn J D Thomas
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | - Anu Eskelinen
- Department of Physiological Diversity, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Konsta Happonen
- Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Juha M Alatalo
- Environmental Science Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
| | - Alba Anadon-Rosell
- CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
- Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Isabelle Aubin
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste Marie, ON, Canada
| | - Mariska Te Beest
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth, South Africa
| | | | - Daan Blok
- Dutch Research Council (NWO), The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Allan Buras
- Land Surface-Atmosphere Interactions, School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Freising, Germany
| | - Bruno E L Cerabolini
- Department of Biotechnologies and Life Sciences, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy
| | - Katherine Christie
- Threatened, Endangered, and Diversity Program, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Anchorage, USA
| | - J Hans C Cornelissen
- Section Systems Ecology, Amsterdam Institute for Life and Environment (A-LIFE), Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Bruce C Forbes
- Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland
| | - Esther R Frei
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Climate Change and Extremes in Alpine Regions Research Centre CERC, Davos, Switzerland
| | - Paul Grogan
- Department of Biology, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, ON, Canada
| | - Luise Hermanutz
- Department of Biology, Memorial University, St. John's, NL, Canada
| | | | - James Hudson
- Government of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Maitane Iturrate-Garcia
- Department of Chemical and Biological Metrology, Federal Institute of Metrology METAS, Bern-Wabern, Switzerland
| | - Elina Kaarlejärvi
- Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Michael Kleyer
- Institute of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany
| | - Laurent J Lamarque
- Département des Sciences de l'environnement et Centre d'études nordiques, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières, Québec, Canada
| | - Jonas J Lembrechts
- Research Group Plants and Ecosystems (PLECO), University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Esther Lévesque
- Département des Sciences de l'environnement et Centre d'études nordiques, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières, Québec, Canada
| | - Miska Luoto
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Petr Macek
- Institute of Hydrobiology, Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
| | - Jeremy L May
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA
- Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Marietta College, Marietta, OH, USA
| | - Janet S Prevéy
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
- U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | | | - Laura Siegwart Collier
- Department of Biology, Memorial University, St. John's, NL, Canada
- Terra Nova National Park, Parks Canada Agency, Glovertown, NL, Canada
| | | | - Andrew Trant
- School of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
| | - Susanna E Venn
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood, VIC, Australia
| | - Anna-Maria Virkkala
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA
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13
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Rubenstein MA, Weiskopf SR, Bertrand R, Carter SL, Comte L, Eaton MJ, Johnson CG, Lenoir J, Lynch AJ, Miller BW, Morelli TL, Rodriguez MA, Terando A, Thompson LM. Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts. ENVIRONMENTAL EVIDENCE 2023; 12:7. [PMID: 39294691 PMCID: PMC11378804 DOI: 10.1186/s13750-023-00296-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2022] [Accepted: 02/12/2023] [Indexed: 09/21/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species' ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence. METHODS We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (i.e., km/decade). We accounted for methodological attributes at the study level as potential sources of variation. This allowed us to answer two questions: (1) are most species shifting in the direction we expect (i.e., each observation is assessed as support/fail to support our expectation); and (2) what is the average speed of range shifts? REVIEW FINDINGS We found that less than half of all range-shift observations (46.60%) documented shifts towards higher latitudes, higher elevations, and greater marine depths, demonstrating significant variation in the empirical evidence for general range shift expectations. For the subset of studies looking at range shift rates, we found that species demonstrated significant average shifts towards higher latitudes (average = 11.8 km/dec) and higher elevations (average = 9 m/dec), although we failed to find significant evidence for shifts to greater marine depths. We found that methodological factors in individual range-shift studies had a significant impact on the reported direction and magnitude of shifts. Finally, we identified important variation across dimensions of range shifts (e.g., greater support for latitude and elevation shifts than depth), parameters (e.g., leading edge shifts faster than trailing edge for latitude), and taxonomic groups (e.g., faster latitudinal shifts for insects than plants). CONCLUSIONS Despite growing evidence that species are shifting their ranges in response to climate change, substantial variation exists in the extent to which definitively empirical observations confirm these expectations. Even though on average, rates of shift show significant movement to higher elevations and latitudes for many taxa, most species are not shifting in expected directions. Variation across dimensions and parameters of range shifts, as well as differences across taxonomic groups and variation driven by methodological factors, should be considered when assessing overall confidence in range-shift hypotheses. In order for managers to effectively plan for species redistribution, we need to better account for and predict which species will shift and by how much. The dataset produced for this analysis can be used for future research to explore additional hypotheses to better understand species range shifts.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Sarah R Weiskopf
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, USA.
| | | | - Shawn L Carter
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, USA
| | - Lise Comte
- School of Biological Sciences, Illinois State University, Normal, USA
| | | | - Ciara G Johnson
- Department of Environmental Science & Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, USA
| | | | - Abigail J Lynch
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, USA
| | - Brian W Miller
- North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, USGS, Boulder, USA
| | | | - Mari Angel Rodriguez
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, USA
| | - Adam Terando
- Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, USGS, Raleigh, USA
| | - Laura M Thompson
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, USA
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14
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Briscoe NJ, Morris SD, Mathewson PD, Buckley LB, Jusup M, Levy O, Maclean IMD, Pincebourde S, Riddell EA, Roberts JA, Schouten R, Sears MW, Kearney MR. Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: The promise of biophysical ecology. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:1451-1470. [PMID: 36515542 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16557] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2022] [Accepted: 11/10/2022] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models relating to data availability, training, and the lack of common software ecosystems. We also discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. Finally, we highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie J Briscoe
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Science, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Shane D Morris
- School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Paul D Mathewson
- Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Lauren B Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Marko Jusup
- Fisheries Resources Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Ofir Levy
- School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Ilya M D Maclean
- School of Biosciences, Centre for Ecology and Conservation, Cornwall, UK
| | | | - Eric A Riddell
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA
| | - Jessica A Roberts
- School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rafael Schouten
- Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Michael W Sears
- Department of Biological Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina, USA
| | - Michael Ray Kearney
- School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Beissinger SR, MacLean SA, Iknayan KJ, de Valpine P. Concordant and opposing effects of climate and land-use change on avian assemblages in California's most transformed landscapes. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eabn0250. [PMID: 36812325 PMCID: PMC9946348 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abn0250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2021] [Accepted: 01/26/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Climate and land-use change could exhibit concordant effects that favor or disfavor the same species, which would amplify their impacts, or species may respond to each threat in a divergent manner, causing opposing effects that moderate their impacts in isolation. We used early 20th century surveys of birds conducted by Joseph Grinnell paired with modern resurveys and land-use change reconstructed from historic maps to examine avian change in Los Angeles and California's Central Valley (and their surrounding foothills). Occupancy and species richness declined greatly in Los Angeles from urbanization, strong warming (+1.8°C), and drying (-77.2 millimeters) but remained stable in the Central Valley, despite large-scale agricultural development, average warming (+0.9°C), and increased precipitation (+11.2 millimeters). While climate was the main driver of species distributions a century ago, the combined impacts of land-use and climate change drove temporal changes in occupancy, with similar numbers of species experiencing concordant and opposing effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven R. Beissinger
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Sarah A. MacLean
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Department of Biology, University of La Verne, La Verne, CA, USA
| | - Kelly J. Iknayan
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
- San Francisco Estuary Institute, Richmond, CA, USA
| | - Perry de Valpine
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
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16
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Climate, currents and species traits contribute to early stages of marine species redistribution. Commun Biol 2022; 5:1329. [PMID: 36463333 PMCID: PMC9719494 DOI: 10.1038/s42003-022-04273-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2021] [Accepted: 11/17/2022] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is causing a rapid redistribution of life on Earth, particularly in the ocean, with profound implications for humans. Yet warming-driven range shifts are known to be influenced by a variety of factors whose combined effects are still little understood. Here, we use scientist-verified out-of-range observations from a national citizen-science initiative to assess the combined effect of long-term warming, climate extremes (i.e., heatwaves and cold spells), ocean currents, and species traits on early stages of marine range extensions in two warming 'hotspot' regions of southern Australia. We find effects of warming to be contingent upon complex interactions with the strength of ocean currents and their mutual directional agreement, as well as species traits. Our study represents the most comprehensive account to date of factors driving early stages of marine species redistributions, providing important evidence for the assessment of the vulnerability of marine species distributions to climate change.
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17
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Alves-Ferreira G, Talora DC, Solé M, Cervantes-López MJ, Heming NM. Unraveling global impacts of climate change on amphibians distributions: A life-history and biogeographic-based approach. Front Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.987237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change can affect species distribution patterns in three different ways: pushing them to disperse to new suitable areas, forcing them to adapt to novel climatic conditions, or driving them to extinction. However, the biological and geographical traits that lead to these different responses remain poorly explored. Here, we evaluated how ecological and biogeographic traits influence amphibians’ response to climate change. We performed a systematic review searching for studies that evaluated the effects of future climate change on amphibian’s distribution. Our research returned 31 articles that projected the distribution of 331 amphibians. Our results demonstrate that species inhabiting an elevation above 515 m will lose a significant portion of their climatically suitable area. We also found that as isothermality increases, the amount of area suitable in response to climate change also increases. Another important discovery was that as the size of the baseline area increases, the greater must be the loss of climatically suitable areas. On the other hand, species with very small areas tend to keep their current climatically suitable area in the future. Furthermore, our results indicate that species that inhabit dry habitats tend to expand their suitable area in response to climate change. This result can be explained by the environmental characteristics of these habitats, which tend to present extreme seasonal climates with well-defined periods of drought and rain. We also found that anurans that inhabit exclusively forests are projected to lose a greater portion of their suitable areas, when compared to species that inhabit both forest and open areas, wetlands, and dry and rupestrian environments. The biogeographical realm also influenced anuran’s range shifts, with Afrotropic and Nearctic species projected to expand their geographical ranges. The assessment of climate change effects on amphibian distribution has been the focus of a growing number of studies. Despite this, some regions and species remain underrepresented. Current literature evaluates about 4% of the 7,477 species of Anura and 8% of the 773 species of Caudata and some regions rich in amphibian species remain severely underrepresented, such as Madagascar. Thus, future studies should focus on regions and taxas that remain underrepresented.
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18
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Latron M, Arnaud J, Schmitt E, Duputié A. Idiosyncratic shifts in life‐history traits at species' geographic range edges. OIKOS 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.09098] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Eric Schmitt
- Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 8198 – Evo‐Eco‐Paleo Lille France
| | - Anne Duputié
- Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 8198 – Evo‐Eco‐Paleo Lille France
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19
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Auber A, Waldock C, Maire A, Goberville E, Albouy C, Algar AC, McLean M, Brind'Amour A, Green AL, Tupper M, Vigliola L, Kaschner K, Kesner-Reyes K, Beger M, Tjiputra J, Toussaint A, Violle C, Mouquet N, Thuiller W, Mouillot D. A functional vulnerability framework for biodiversity conservation. Nat Commun 2022; 13:4774. [PMID: 36050297 PMCID: PMC9437092 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32331-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2021] [Accepted: 07/26/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Setting appropriate conservation strategies in a multi-threat world is a challenging goal, especially because of natural complexity and budget limitations that prevent effective management of all ecosystems. Safeguarding the most threatened ecosystems requires accurate and integrative quantification of their vulnerability and their functioning, particularly the potential loss of species trait diversity which imperils their functioning. However, the magnitude of threats and associated biological responses both have high uncertainties. Additionally, a major difficulty is the recurrent lack of reference conditions for a fair and operational measurement of vulnerability. Here, we present a functional vulnerability framework that incorporates uncertainty and reference conditions into a generalizable tool. Through in silico simulations of disturbances, our framework allows us to quantify the vulnerability of communities to a wide range of threats. We demonstrate the relevance and operationality of our framework, and its global, scalable and quantitative comparability, through three case studies on marine fishes and mammals. We show that functional vulnerability has marked geographic and temporal patterns. We underline contrasting contributions of species richness and functional redundancy to the level of vulnerability among case studies, indicating that our integrative assessment can also identify the drivers of vulnerability in a world where uncertainty is omnipresent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arnaud Auber
- IFREMER, Unité Halieutique Manche Mer du Nord, Laboratoire Ressources Halieutiques, Boulogne-sur-Mer, France.
| | - Conor Waldock
- Division of Aquatic Ecology and Evolution, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Fish Ecology and Evolution, Center for Ecology, Evolution and Biogeochemistry, Eawag - Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Kastanienbaum, Switzerland
| | - Anthony Maire
- EDF R&D LNHE - Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et Environnement, 6 quai Watier, Chatou, France
| | - Eric Goberville
- Unité Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystèmes Aquatiques (BOREA), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Sorbonne Université, Université de Caen Normandie, Université des Antilles, CNRS, IRD, Paris, Cedex 05, France
| | - Camille Albouy
- Ecosystems and Landscape evolution, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
- Unit of Land Change Science, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Adam C Algar
- Department of Biology, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, ON, Canada
| | - Matthew McLean
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
| | - Anik Brind'Amour
- IFREMER, unité Ecologie et Modèles pour l'Halieutique, rue de l'Ile d'Yeu, BP21105, Nantes, cedex 3, France
| | - Alison L Green
- Red Sea Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mark Tupper
- Institute of Marine Science, University of Portsmouth, Ferry Reach, Portsmouth, UK
- CGG, Crompton Way, Crawley, UK
| | - Laurent Vigliola
- UMR ENTROPIE, IRD-UR-UNC-IFREMER-CNRS, Centre IRD de Nouméa, Nouméa Cedex, New-Caledonia, France
| | - Kristin Kaschner
- Department of Biometry and Environmental Systems Analysis, Albert-Ludwigs-University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | | | - Maria Beger
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Jerry Tjiputra
- NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Aurèle Toussaint
- Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Cyrille Violle
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Nicolas Mouquet
- CESAB - FRB, Montpellier, France
- UMR MARBEC, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IFREMER, IRD, Montpellier, Cedex, France
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Grenoble, France
| | - David Mouillot
- UMR MARBEC, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IFREMER, IRD, Montpellier, Cedex, France
- Institut Universitaire de France, Paris, France
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20
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Di Cecco GJ, Hurlbert AH. Multiple dimensions of niche specialization explain changes in species’ range area, occupancy, and population size. Front Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.921480] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
In response to environmental change, species may decrease or increase in population size across their range, expand or contract their range limits, or alter how sites are occupied within their existing range. Shifts in range limits and widespread changes in population size have been documented in birds especially in response to changes in climate. Range occupancy, or how patchily or continuously a species is distributed within their range, has been studied less in the context of anthropogenic changes but may be expected to decrease with range-wide population size if abundance-occupancy relationships are generally positive. Determining which properties of species are related to range expansion or contraction or increased range occupancy or decreased range occupancy is useful in developing an understanding of which species become “winners” or “losers” under global change. Species with broader climatic niches may be more likely to successfully expand to new sites as climate changes. Range occupancy can be related to habitat preferences of species, and habitat specialization may predict how species fill in sites within their range. To examine how species niche breadth may explain changes in species distributions, we modeled how changes in range-wide population size, range extent, and range occupancy from 1976 to 2016 were predicted by species’ climate, habitat, and diet niche breadth for 77 North American breeding bird species. We found that climate generalists were more likely to be increasing in range area, while species with declining population trends were likely to be contracting in range area and in occupancy within their range. Understanding how different dimensions of specialization relate to shifts in species distributions may improve predictions of which species are expected to benefit from or be vulnerable to anthropogenic change.
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21
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Wellenreuther M, Dudaniec RY, Neu A, Lessard JP, Bridle J, Carbonell JA, Diamond SE, Marshall KE, Parmesan C, Singer MC, Swaegers J, Thomas CD, Lancaster LT. The importance of eco-evolutionary dynamics for predicting and managing insect range shifts. CURRENT OPINION IN INSECT SCIENCE 2022; 52:100939. [PMID: 35644339 DOI: 10.1016/j.cois.2022.100939] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2022] [Revised: 05/17/2022] [Accepted: 05/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Evolutionary change impacts the rate at which insect pests, pollinators, or disease vectors expand or contract their geographic ranges. Although evolutionary changes, and their ecological feedbacks, strongly affect these risks and associated ecological and economic consequences, they are often underappreciated in management efforts. Greater rigor and scope in study design, coupled with innovative technologies and approaches, facilitates our understanding of the causes and consequences of eco-evolutionary dynamics in insect range shifts. Future efforts need to ensure that forecasts allow for demographic and evolutionary change and that management strategies will maximize (or minimize) the adaptive potential of range-shifting insects, with benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maren Wellenreuther
- The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Ltd, Nelson, New Zealand; School of Biological Sciences, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Rachael Y Dudaniec
- School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia
| | - Anika Neu
- Zoological Institute and Museum, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | | | - Jon Bridle
- Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, UK
| | - José A Carbonell
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Biology, University of Seville, Seville, Spain; Laboratory of Evolutionary Stress Ecology and Ecotoxicology, University of Leuven, Charles Deberiotstraat 32, Leuven B-3000, Belgium
| | - Sarah E Diamond
- Department of Biology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH 44106, USA
| | - Katie E Marshall
- Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Camille Parmesan
- Station d'Écologie Théorique et Expérimentale (SETE), CNRS, 2 route du CNRS, 09200 Moulis, France; Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK; Dept of Geological Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712
| | - Michael C Singer
- Station d'Écologie Théorique et Expérimentale (SETE), CNRS, 2 route du CNRS, 09200 Moulis, France; Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK
| | - Janne Swaegers
- Laboratory of Evolutionary Stress Ecology and Ecotoxicology, University of Leuven, Charles Deberiotstraat 32, Leuven B-3000, Belgium
| | - Chris D Thomas
- Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, University of York, Wentworth Way, York YO10 5DD, UK
| | - Lesley T Lancaster
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen UK AB24 2TZ.
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22
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Telemeco RS, Gangloff EJ, Cordero GA, Rodgers EM, Aubret F. From performance curves to performance surfaces: Interactive effects of temperature and oxygen availability on aerobic and anaerobic performance in the common wall lizard. Funct Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.14147] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Rory S. Telemeco
- Department of Biology California State University Fresno Fresno CA USA
| | - Eric J. Gangloff
- Department of Biological Sciences Ohio Wesleyan University Delaware OH USA
| | - G. Antonio Cordero
- Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Department of Animal Biology University of Lisbon Lisbon Portugal
| | - Essie M. Rodgers
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury Christchurch New Zealand
| | - Fabien Aubret
- Station d’Ecologie Théorique et Expérimentale du CNRS – UPR 2001 Moulis France
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23
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Bodensteiner BL, Gangloff EJ, Kouyoumdjian L, Muñoz MM, Aubret F. Thermal-metabolic phenotypes of the lizard Podarcis muralis differ across elevation, but converge in high-elevation hypoxia. J Exp Biol 2021; 224:273727. [PMID: 34761802 DOI: 10.1242/jeb.243660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2021] [Accepted: 11/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
In response to a warming climate, many montane species are shifting upslope to track the emergence of preferred temperatures. Characterizing patterns of variation in metabolic, physiological and thermal traits along an elevational gradient, and the plastic potential of these traits, is necessary to understand current and future responses to abiotic constraints at high elevations, including limited oxygen availability. We performed a transplant experiment with the upslope-colonizing common wall lizard (Podarcis muralis) in which we measured nine aspects of thermal physiology and aerobic capacity in lizards from replicate low- (400 m above sea level, ASL) and high-elevation (1700 m ASL) populations. We first measured traits at their elevation of origin and then transplanted half of each group to extreme high elevation (2900 m ASL; above the current elevational range limit of this species), where oxygen availability is reduced by ∼25% relative to sea level. After 3 weeks of acclimation, we again measured these traits in both the transplanted and control groups. The multivariate thermal-metabolic phenotypes of lizards originating from different elevations differed clearly when measured at the elevation of origin. For example, high-elevation lizards are more heat tolerant than their low-elevation counterparts (counter-gradient variation). Yet, these phenotypes converged after exposure to reduced oxygen availability at extreme high elevation, suggesting limited plastic responses under this novel constraint. Our results suggest that high-elevation populations are well suited to their oxygen environments, but that plasticity in the thermal-metabolic phenotype does not pre-adapt these populations to colonize more hypoxic environments at higher elevations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brooke L Bodensteiner
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, 165 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
| | - Eric J Gangloff
- Station d'Ecologie Théorique et Expérimentale du CNRS - UMR 5321, 09200 Moulis, France.,Department of Biological Sciences, Ohio Wesleyan University, Delaware, 43015 OH, USA
| | - Laura Kouyoumdjian
- Station d'Ecologie Théorique et Expérimentale du CNRS - UMR 5321, 09200 Moulis, France
| | - Martha M Muñoz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, 165 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
| | - Fabien Aubret
- Station d'Ecologie Théorique et Expérimentale du CNRS - UMR 5321, 09200 Moulis, France.,School of Molecular and Life Sciences, Curtin University, Bentley, WA 6102, Australia
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24
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Mammola S, Pétillon J, Hacala A, Monsimet J, Marti S, Cardoso P, Lafage D. Challenges and opportunities of species distribution modelling of terrestrial arthropod predators. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13434] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Stefano Mammola
- Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research (LIBRe) Finnish Museum of Natural History (LUOMUS) University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
- Molecular Ecology Group (MEG), Water Research Institute (RSA) National Research Council (CNR) Verbania Pallanza Italy
| | | | - Axel Hacala
- UMR ECOBIO Université de Rennes 1 Rennes France
| | - Jérémy Monsimet
- Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Campus Evenstad Koppang Norway
| | | | - Pedro Cardoso
- Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research (LIBRe) Finnish Museum of Natural History (LUOMUS) University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
| | - Denis Lafage
- UMR ECOBIO Université de Rennes 1 Rennes France
- Department of Environmental and Life Sciences/Biology Karlstad University Karlstad Sweden
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