Climate Change, Coral Loss, and the Curious Case of the Parrotfish Paradigm: Why Don't Marine Protected Areas Improve Reef Resilience?

A molecular approach to identify parrotfish (Sparisoma) species during early ontogeny

Sparisoma species (parrotfish) comprise an important functional group contributing to coral-reef resilience. The morphological diagnostic characteristics for species identification are clearly described for adult forms but not for the early stages. Consequently, many taxonomical listings of Sparisoma larvae are restricted to the genus level. The aims of this study are to determine whether the morphological and molecular identification techniques are useful to assign the species taxonomic level to Sparisoma larvae occurring in the Gulf of Mexico and whether there is a set of diagnostic features that could be used to discriminate between species in larvae of different developmental stages. Morphological assignment of Sparisoma was performed based on morphological and meristic features for 30 larvae collected in the Gulf of Mexico from late August to mid-September 2015. To corroborate and complement the morphological assignments, molecular identification was carried out using DNA sequences from regions of two mitochondrial genes, mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (mtDNA COI) and mitochondrial 16S rRNA (mtDNA 16S rRNA). COI and 16S gene trees for Sparisoma and related fish taxa were constructed using sequences available in the NCBI (National Center for Biotechnology Information) GenBank and BOLD (Barcode of Life Data) databases. Two morphotypes were identified based on morphology, but no diagnostic characteristics for species discrimination were found. Molecular identification, in contrast, successfully discriminated four early development stages of Sparisoma atomarium, three stages of Sparisoma radians, and two stages of Sparisoma chrysopterum and Sparisoma aurofrenatum, therefore demonstrating the successful and necessary application of molecular taxonomic approaches for species-level identifications of Sparisoma larvae.

Impact of human disturbance on biogeochemical fluxes in tropical seascapes

Tropical seascapes rely on the feedback relationships among mangrove forests, seagrass meadows, and coral reefs, as they mutually facilitate and enhance each other's functionality. Biogeochemical fluxes link tropical coastal habitats by exchanging material flows and energy through various natural processes that determine the conditions for life and ecosystem functioning. However, little is known about the seascape-scale implications of anthropogenic disruptions to these linkages. Despite the limited number of integrated empirical studies available (with only 11 out of 81 selected studies focusing on the integrated dynamics of mangroves, seagrass, and corals), this review emphasizes the importance of biogeochemical fluxes for ecosystem connectivity in tropical seascapes. It identifies four primary anthropogenic influences that can disturb these fluxes-nutrient enrichment, chemical pollution, microbial pollution, and solid waste accumulation-resulting in eutrophication, increased disease incidence, toxicity, and disruptions to water carbonate chemistry. This review also highlights significant knowledge gaps in our understanding of biogeochemical fluxes and ecosystem responses to perturbations in tropical seascapes. Addressing these knowledge gaps is crucial for developing practical strategies to conserve and manage connected seascapes effectively. Integrated research is needed to shed light on the complex interactions and feedback mechanisms within these ecosystems, providing valuable insights for conservation and management practices.

Marine protected areas can be useful but are not a silver bullet for kelp conservation

Kelp forests are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, but they are increasingly being degraded and lost due to a range of human-related stressors, leading to recent calls for their improved management and conservation. One of the primary tools to conserve marine species and biodiversity is the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs). International commitments to protect 30% of the world's ecosystems are gaining momentum, offering a promising avenue to secure kelp forests into the Anthropocene. However, a clear understanding of the efficacy of MPAs for conserving kelp forests in a changing ocean is lacking. In this perspective, we question whether strengthened global protection will create meaningful conservation outcomes for kelp forests. We explore the benefits of MPAs for kelp conservation under a suite of different stressors, focusing on empirical evidence from protected kelp forests. We show that MPAs can be effective against some drivers of kelp loss (e.g., overgrazing, kelp harvesting), particularly when they are maintained in the long-term and enforced as no-take areas. There is also some evidence that MPAs can reduce impacts of climate change through building resilience in multi-stressor situations. However, MPAs also often fail to provide protection against ocean warming, marine heatwaves, coastal darkening, and pollution, which have emerged as dominant drivers of kelp forest loss globally. Although well-enforced MPAs should remain an important tool to protect kelp forests, successful kelp conservation will require implementing an additional suite of management solutions that target these accelerating threats.

Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Prosthechea mariae (Orchidaceae) and within Protected Areas in Mexico

The impact of climate change on the distribution of native species in the Neotropics remains uncertain for most species. Prosthechea mariae is an endemic epiphytic orchid in Mexico, categorized as threatened. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of climate change on the natural distribution of P. mariae and the capacity of protected areas (PAs) to safeguard optimal environmental conditions for the species in the future. Historical records were obtained from herbaria collections and through field surveys. We utilized climate variables from WorldClim for the baseline scenario and for the 2050 period, using the general circulation models CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 (RCP 4.5). Three sets of climate data were created for the distribution models, and multiple models were evaluated using the kuenm package. We found that the species is restricted to the eastern region of the country. The projections of future scenarios predict not only a substantial reduction in habitat but also an increase in habitat fragmentation. Ten PAs were found within the current distribution area of the species; in the future, the species could lose between 36% and 48% of its available habitat within these PAs. The results allowed for the identification of locations where climate change will have the most severe effects, and proposals for long-term conservation are addressed.

Temperature and local anthropogenic pressures limit stony coral assemblage viability in southeast Florida

Climate change is viewed as the primary threat to coral reefs, with local pressures exacerbating coral cover decline. The consensus is that improving water quality may increase resilience, but disentangling water quality and temperature impacts is difficult. We used distance-based linear models and random forests to analyze spatiotemporal variation in benthic community structure and interannual changes in the coral assemblage, in relation to specific environmental metrics in Southeast Florida. Temperature accounted for most of the variation, recruitment doubled and interannual increases in coral abundance tripled when mean annual temperature reached 27 °C, until maximum temperatures exceeded 31 °C. Benefits associated with warmer temperatures were negated by poor water quality, as nutrient enrichment was related to increased macroalgal cover, reduced coral recruitment and higher coral partial mortality. We suggest reducing local pressures will contribute to reduced macroalgae and enhance coral recovery, but that temperature is the predominant influence on coral assemblages.

Including environmental and climatic considerations for sustainable coral reef restoration

Coral reefs provide ecosystem benefits to millions of people but are threatened by rapid environmental change and ever-increasing human pressures. Restoration is becoming a priority strategy for coral reef conservation, yet implementation remains challenging and it is becoming increasingly apparent that indirect conservation and restoration approaches will not ensure the long-term sustainability of coral reefs. The important role of environmental conditions in restoration practice are currently undervalued, carrying substantial implications for restoration success. Giving paramount importance to environmental conditions, particularly during the pre-restoration planning phase, has the potential to bring about considerable improvements in coral reef restoration and innovation. This Essay argues that restoration risk may be reduced by adopting an environmentally aware perspective that gives historical, contemporary, and future context to restoration decisions. Such an approach will open up new restoration opportunities with improved sustainability that have the capacity to dynamically respond to environmental trajectories.

Shifting reef restoration focus from coral survivorship to biodiversity using Reef Carpets

To enhance the practice of farmed-coral transplantation, we conducted a trial of an approach called "Reef Carpets" (RC), which draws inspiration from the commercial turf-grass sod in land-based lawn gardening. Three 8.4m2 RCs were established on a sandy seabed, containing preselected combinations of branching corals (Acropora cf. variabilis, Pocillopora damicornis, Stylophora pistillata) with nursery recruited dwellers, and were monitored for 17-months. Corals within RCs grew, supported coral recruitment and offered ecological habitats for coral-associated organisms. While the unstable sediment underneath the RCs increased corals' partial mortalities, corals managed to grow and propagate. The extent of fish and gastropods corallivory varied among the coral species and planulation of Stylophora transplants was significantly higher than same-size natal-colonies. The RCs provided conducive environments for fish/invertebrate communities (183 taxa), and each coral species influenced specifically species-diversity and reef-associated communities. Even dead corals played crucial roles as habitats for reef biota, sustaining >80% of the RCs diversity; hence, they should not be considered automatically as indicators of failure. RCs scaled-up reef restoration and generated, in short periods, new reefs in denuded zones with enhanced biodiversity. Yet, RCs employment on soft-beds could be improved by using more structured artificial frameworks, requiring further research efforts.

Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Foundation Species

Marine foundation species are the biotic basis for many of the world's coastal ecosystems, providing structural habitat, food, and protection for myriad plants and animals as well as many ecosystem services. However, climate change poses a significant threat to foundation species and the ecosystems they support. We review the impacts of climate change on common marine foundation species, including corals, kelps, seagrasses, salt marsh plants, mangroves, and bivalves. It is evident that marine foundation species have already been severely impacted by several climate change drivers, often through interactive effects with other human stressors, such as pollution, overfishing, and coastal development. Despite considerable variation in geographical, environmental, and ecological contexts, direct and indirect effects of gradual warming and subsequent heatwaves have emerged as the most pervasive drivers of observed impact and potent threat across all marine foundation species, but effects from sea level rise, ocean acidification, and increased storminess are expected to increase. Documented impacts include changes in the genetic structures, physiology, abundance, and distribution of the foundation species themselves and changes to their interactions with other species, with flow-on effects to associated communities, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning. We discuss strategies to support marine foundation species into the Anthropocene, in order to increase their resilience and ensure the persistence of the ecosystem services they provide.

Past disturbances and local conditions influence the recovery rates of coral reefs

Corals are being increasingly subjected to marine heatwaves. Theory suggests that increasing the intensity of disturbances reduces recovery rates, which inspired us to examine the recovery rates of coral cover following marine heatwaves, cyclones, and other disturbances at 1921 study sites, in 58 countries and three oceans, from 1977 to 2020. In the Atlantic Ocean, coral cover has decreased fourfold since the 1970s, and recovery rates following disturbances have been relatively slow, except in the Antilles. By contrast, reefs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans have maintained coral cover and recovery rates over time. There were positive relationships between rates of coral recovery and prior cyclone and heatwave frequency, and negative relationships between rates of coral recovery and macroalgae cover and distance to shore. A recent increase in the variance in recovery rates in some ecoregions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans suggests that some reefs in those ecoregions may be approaching a phase shift. While marine heatwaves are increasing in intensity and frequency, our results suggest that regional and local conditions influence coral recovery rates, and therefore, effective local management efforts can help reefs recover from disturbances.

Natural recovery of corals after severe disturbance

Ecosystem recovery from human-induced disturbances, whether through natural processes or restoration, is occurring worldwide. Yet, recovery dynamics, and their implications for broader ecosystem management, remain unclear. We explored recovery dynamics using coral reefs as a case study. We tracked the fate of 809 individual coral recruits that settled after a severe bleaching event at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Recruited Acropora corals, first detected in 2020, grew to coral cover levels that were equivalent to global average coral cover within just 2 years. Furthermore, we found that just 11.5 Acropora recruits per square meter were sufficient to reach this cover within 2 years. However, wave exposure, growth form and colony density had a marked effect on recovery rates. Our results underscore the importance of considering natural recovery in management and restoration and highlight how lessons learnt from reef recovery can inform our understanding of recovery dynamics in high-diversity climate-disturbed ecosystems.

Management strategy influences coral oxidative stress responses in a marine protected area in the Southwestern Atlantic

Coral reefs are experiencing accelerated degradation due to global and local stressors. The understanding of how corals cope with these disturbances is urgent. We focused on elucidating antioxidant capacity responses of the Mussismilia harttii and Siderastrea sp. corals, in reefs with use management in a marine protected area. We tested whether the activity of antioxidant enzymes in healthy colonies is higher at multiple-use reefs than at no-take reef, and whether the activity of antioxidant enzymes is higher for bleached than for healthy Siderastrea sp. colonies. Lipid peroxidation and enzymatic activity found in bleached colonies evidence chronic stress and cellular damage not related to thermal anomalies. Chronic stress in healthy colonies was also found but responses differed among species, being higher at multiple use reefs, mainly for Siderastrea sp. We highlight the role of the local conservation actions in the integrity of coral physiology and reef resilience under global climate changes.

Insights from the 2-year-long human confinement experiment in Grand Cayman reveal the resilience of coral reef fish communities

In March 2020, the world went into lockdown to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), with immediate impacts on wildlife across ecosystems. The strict 2-year long lockdown in Grand Cayman provided an unprecedented opportunity to assess how the 'human confinement experiment' influenced the community composition of reef fish. Using a suite of multivariate statistics, our findings revealed a stark increase in reef fish biomass during the 2 years of lockdown, especially among herbivores, including parrotfish, with drastic increases in juvenile parrotfishes identified. Additionally, when comparing baseline data of the community from 2018 to the 2 years during lockdown, over a three-fold significant increase in mean reef fish biomass was observed, with a clear shift in community composition. Our findings provide unique insights into the resilience of reef fish communities when local anthropogenic stressors are removed for an unprecedented length of time. Given the functional role of herbivores including parrotfish, our results suggest that reductions in human water-based activities have positive implications for coral reef ecosystems and should be considered in future management strategies.

Standardization of in situ coral bleaching measurements highlights the variability in responses across genera, morphologies, and regions

Marine heatwaves and regional coral bleaching events have become more frequent and severe across the world's oceans over the last several decades due to global climate change. Observational studies have documented spatiotemporal variation in the responses of reef-building corals to thermal stress within and among taxa across geographic scales. Although many tools exist for predicting, detecting, and quantifying coral bleaching, it remains difficult to compare bleaching severity (e.g., percent cover of bleached surface areas) among studies and across species or regions. For this review, we compiled over 2,100 in situ coral bleaching observations representing 87 reef-building coral genera and 250 species of common morphological groups from a total of 74 peer-reviewed scientific articles, encompassing three broad geographic regions (Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans). While bleaching severity was found to vary by region, genus, and morphology, we found that both genera and morphologies responded differently to thermal stress across regions. These patterns were complicated by (i) inconsistent methods and response metrics across studies; (ii) differing ecological scales of observations (i.e., individual colony-level vs. population or community-level); and (iii) temporal variability in surveys with respect to the onset of thermal stress and the chronology of bleaching episodes. To improve cross-study comparisons, we recommend that future surveys prioritize measuring bleaching in the same individual coral colonies over time and incorporate the severity and timing of warming into their analyses. By reevaluating and standardizing the ways in which coral bleaching is quantified, researchers will be able to track responses to marine heatwaves with increased rigor, precision, and accuracy.

Effects of Madagascar marine reserves on juvenile and adult coral abundance, and the implication for population regulation

Recruitment is a critical component in the dynamics of coral assemblages, and a key question is to determine the degree to which spatial heterogeneity of adults is influenced by pre-vs. post-settlement processes. We analyzed the density of juvenile and adult corals among 18 stations located at three regions around Madagascar, and examined the effects of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Our survey did not detect a positive effect of MPAs on juveniles, except for Porites at the study scale. The MPA effect was more pronounced for adults, notably for Acropora, Montipora, Seriatopora, and Porites at the regional scale. For most dominant genera, densities of juveniles and adults were positively correlated at the study scale, and at least at one of the three regions. These outcomes suggest recruitment-limitation relationships for several coral taxa, although differences in post-settlement events may be sufficiently strong to distort the pattern established at settlement for other populations. The modest benefits of MPAs on the density of juvenile corals demonstrated here argue in favor of strengthening conservation measures more specifically focused to protect recruitment processes.

A decade of study on the condition of western Cuban coral reefs, with low human impact

Background

The long-time study of coral reefs with low human impacts can provide information on the effects of regional pressures like climate change, and is an opportunity to document how these pressures are reflected in coral communities. An example of minimal local anthropogenic impacts are the Guanahacabibes coral reefs, located in the westernmost region of Cuba. The objectives of this study were: to evaluate the temporal variability of six benthic biological indicators of coral reefs, and to explore the possible relationship between predictive abiotic variables and biological response variables.

Methods

Four coral reef sites were sampled between 2008 and 2017, to analyze biological indicators (living coral cover, fleshy algae index, coral species richness, coral species abundance, coral trait groups species abundance, Functional Reef Index). Seven abiotic variables (wave exposure, sea surface temperature, degree heating week, chlorophyll-a concentration, particulate organic carbon, photosynthetically available radiation, and the diffuse attenuation coefficient) were compiled between 2007 and 2016, from remote sensing datasets, to analyze their relationship with the biological indicators. Permanova statistical analysis was used to evaluate trends in biological variables between sites and years, and Routine Analysis Based on Linear Distances (DISTLM) was used to explore some dependencies between biotic and abiotic variables.

Results

We found significant variability in the temporal analysis, with a decrease in living coral cover, a decline in the predominance of the branching and massive framework reef-building species, a decline in Orbicella species abundance, and an increase in the fleshy algae index. Some abiotic variables (average of degree heating weeks, standard deviation of the diffuse attenuation coefficient, average of the sea surface temperature, among others) significantly explained the variability of biological indicators; however, determination coefficients were low.

Conclusions

Certain decrease in the functionality of the coral reef was appreciated, taking into account the predominance of secondary and nom-massive framework reef-building species in the last years. A weak association between abiotic and biological variables was found in the temporal analysis. The current scenario of the condition of the coral reefs seems to be regulated by the global effects of climate change, weakly associated effects, and in longer terms.

Biology and ecology of the lionfish Pterois volitans/Pterois miles as invasive alien species: a review

The lionfish is an exotic invasive fish native to the Indo-Pacific, which is established in the western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. Lionfish can affect native fishes and invertebrates through direct predation or competition for food. The present review aims to analyze the most relevant characteristics of the biology and ecology of lionfish as an invasive alien species, with an emphasis on Cuba. We provide a current view of the well-known lionfish as a successful invasive fish, and we put in this context the information regarding lionfish in Cuban waters, enriching the background knowledge, and giving novel and relevant information. The compilation of numerous publications on the subject has allowed for a more complete analysis of essential aspects of this invader in the Cuban archipelago. The consulted literature records that the first report of lionfish in Cuba occurred in 2007; subsequently, sightings of lionfish were reported in numerous localities. In 2010, the lionfish was considered an invasive alien species, which currently is established in various habitats, at depths up to 188 m, throughout the Cuban archipelago (e.g., coral reefs, mangroves, seagrass beds, submerged artificial structures). In addition, it has reached very high densities (12.42 ind./100 m2), which exceed those reported in the Indo-Pacific as well as in many locations in the Western Atlantic. It has been confirmed that the lionfish in Cuba also presents numerous characteristics that guarantee its success as an invader, among them: less quantity and diversity of parasites than other Atlantic fishes found in similar environments, a high number of gametes in the gonads, reproductive activity during all year and wide diet. The most important fish families for the lionfish diet in Cuba have been Pomacentridae, Gobiidae, Scaridae, Holocentridae, Mullidae, Labridae and Acanthuridae; and the most important crustacean orders are Decapoda, Mysida, Stomatopoda and Isopoda. In Cuba, as in the entire invaded region, numerous investigations have been directed to evaluate the impact of this invader on ecosystems, and although there is enough information, their results differ. Additional studies are required to assess the impact of lionfish as a predator after several years of invasion on a larger geographic scale in Cuba and other areas of the region. This knowledge will allow the development of more effective control strategies. Periodic lionfish culling have been carried out in Cuban MPAs as a control strategy, and some positive results have been observed, such as the average size reduction; however, further efforts are still required. Due to the importance of the study of lionfish as an invader, this review is a necessity as it provides, for the first time, a comprehensive analysis of lionfish information and results from Cuba, which is adequately contrasted with previous studies of other areas, particularly, from the Greater Caribbean.

The potential for coral reef restoration to mitigate coastal flooding as sea levels rise

The ability of reefs to protect coastlines from storm-driven flooding hinges on their capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise. Here, we show how and whether coral restoration could achieve the often-cited goal of reversing the impacts of coral-reef degradation to preserve this essential function. We combined coral-growth measurements and carbonate-budget assessments of reef-accretion potential at Buck Island Reef, U.S. Virgin Islands, with hydrodynamic modeling to quantify future coastal flooding under various coral-restoration, sea-level rise, and storm scenarios. Our results provide guidance on how restoration of Acropora palmata, if successful, could mitigate the most extreme impacts of coastal flooding by reversing projected trajectories of reef erosion and allowing reefs to keep pace with the ~0.5 m of sea-level rise expected by 2100 with moderate carbon-emissions reductions. This highlights the potential long-term benefits of pursuing coral-reef restoration alongside climate-change mitigation to support the persistence of essential coral-reef ecosystem services.

Transformation of coral communities subjected to an unprecedented heatwave is modulated by local disturbance

Corals are imminently threatened by climate change-amplified marine heatwaves. However, how to conserve coral reefs remains unclear, since those without local anthropogenic disturbances often seem equally or more susceptible to thermal stress as impacted ones. We disentangle this apparent paradox, revealing that the relationship between reef disturbance and heatwave impacts depends upon the scale of biological organization. We show that a tropical heatwave of globally unprecedented duration (~1 year) culminated in an 89% loss of hard coral cover. At the community level, losses depended on pre-heatwave community structure, with undisturbed sites, which were dominated by competitive corals, undergoing the greatest losses. In contrast, at the species level, survivorship of individual corals typically declined as local disturbance intensified. Our study reveals both that prolonged heatwaves projected under climate change will still have winners and losers and that local disturbance can impair survival of coral species even under such extreme conditions.

The change in biocomfort zones in the area of Muğla province in near future due to the global climate change scenarios

It is inevitable that the global climate change, which has important effects on the climate throughout the world, would have significant effects on the biocomfort zones. Hence, how global climate change will change the biocomfort zones should be determined and the data to be obtained should be used in urban planning projects. In the current study, SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 scenarios were taken as a basis, and the potential effects of global climate change on the biocomfort zones in Muğla province, Türkiye were investigated. Within the scope of the present study, the current status of biocomfort zones in Muğla and their possible conditions in years 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100 were compared using DI and ETv methods. At the end of the study, it was estimated that, according DI method, 14.13% of Muğla province are in cold zone, 31.96% in cool zone, and 53.71% in comfortable zone. According to the SSPs 585 scenario, together with the increase in temperature, the cold and cool zones will totally disappear in year 2100, comfortable zones will decrease to 31.22%, and approx. 68.78% of the province will be in hot zone. According to the calculations made using ETv method, Muğla province currently consists of moderately cold zones by 2%, quite cold zones by 13.16%, slightly cold zones by 57.06%, and mild zones by 27.79%. Based on the SSPs 585 scenario for the year 2100, it is projected that Muğla will consist of slightly cool zones by 1.41%, mild zones by 14.42%, and comfortable zones by 68.06%, besides warm zones by 16.11% which are not present at this moment. This finding suggests that especially the cooling costs will increase and the air-conditioning systems to be used will negatively affect the global climate change through the energy consumption and the gases used.

Stories told by corals, algae, and sea-urchins in a Mesoamerican coral reef: degradation trumps succession

Understanding the mechanisms that allow the permanence of coral reefs and the constancy of their characteristics is necessary to alleviate the effects of chronic environmental changes. After a disturbance, healthy coral reefs display trajectories that allow regaining coral cover and the establishment of framework building corals. Through a comparative approach, in a patch reef partially affected by a ship grounding, we analyzed the successional trajectories in affected and unaffected sectors. Fleshy algae (which do not promote the recruitment of corals) dominated the reef surface irrespective of the impact of the ship grounding incident. Acropora species had near-zero contributions to community structure, whereas non-framework building corals like Porites sp. had a slightly higher recruitment. Cover of coral and calcareous crustose algae decreased over time, and neither the latter nor adult coral colonies had any effect on the occurrence probabilities of small corals. Sea urchin (Diadema antillarum) densities were generally low, and thus unlikely to contribute to reverting algal dominance. The successional trajectories of the community in the impacted and non-impacted sectors of the coral patch reef agree with the inhibition successional model, leading to the development of a degraded state dominated by fleshy algae. It is probable that the stability and resilience of this degraded state are high due to the ability of fleshy algae to monopolize space, along with low coral recovery potential.

Benthic composition changes on coral reefs at global scales

Globally, ecosystems are being reconfigured by a range of intensifying human-induced stressors. Coral reefs are at the forefront of this environmental transformation, and if we are to secure their key ecosystem functions and services, it is important to understand the likely configuration of future reefs. However, the composition and trajectory of global coral reef benthic communities is currently unclear. Here our global dataset of 24,468 observations spanning 22 years (1997-2018) revealed that particularly marked declines in coral cover occurred in the Western Atlantic and Central Pacific. The data also suggest that high macroalgal cover, widely regarded as the major degraded state on coral reefs, is a phenomenon largely restricted to the Western Atlantic. At a global scale, the raw data suggest decreased average (± standard error of the mean) hard coral cover from 36 ± 1.4% to 19 ± 0.4% (during a period delineated by the first global coral bleaching event (1998) until the end of the most recent event (2017)) was largely associated with increased low-lying algal cover such as algal turfs and crustose coralline algae. Enhanced understanding of reef change, typified by decreased hard coral cover and increased cover of low-lying algal communities, will be key to managing Anthropocene coral reefs.

A contemporary baseline of Madagascar's coral assemblages: Reefs with high coral diversity, abundance, and function associated with marine protected areas

Madagascar is a major hotspot of biodiversity in the Western Indian Ocean, but, as in many other regions, coral reefs surrounding the island confront large-scale disturbances and human-induced local stressors. Conservation actions have been implemented with encouraging results for fisheries, though their benefit on coral assemblages has never been rigorously addressed. In this context, we analyzed the multiscale spatial variation of the composition, generic richness, abundance, life history strategies, and cover of coral assemblages among 18 stations placed at three regions around the island. The potential influences of marine protected areas (MPAs), algal cover, substrate rugosity, herbivorous fish biomass, and geographic location were also analyzed. Our results highlight the marked spatial variability, with variation at either or both regional and local scales for all coral descriptors. The northeast coastal region of Masoala was characterized by the high abundance of coral colonies, most notably of the competitive Acropora and Pocillopora genera and stress-tolerant taxa at several stations. The southwest station of Salary Nord was distinguished by lower abundances, with depauperate populations of competitive taxa. On the northwest coast, Nosy-Be was characterized by higher diversity and abundance as well as by high coral cover (~42-70%) recorded at unfished stations. Results clearly underline the positive effects of MPAs on all but one of the coral descriptors, particularly at Nosy-Be where the highest contrast between fished and unfished stations was observed. Biomass of herbivorous fishes, crustose coralline algae cover, and substrate rugosity were also positively related to several coral descriptors. The occurrence of reefs with high diversity, abundance, and cover of corals, including the competitive Acropora, is a major finding of this study. Our results strongly support the implementation of locally managed marine areas with strong involvement by primary users, particularly to assist in management in countries with reduced logistic and human resources such as Madagascar.

Fish community structure and dynamics are insufficient to mediate coral resilience

Coral reefs are being impacted by myriad stressors leading to drastic changes to their structure and function. Fishes play essential roles in driving ecosystem processes on coral reefs but the extent to which these processes are emergent at temporal or ecosystem scales or otherwise masked by other drivers (for example, climatic events and crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) is poorly understood. Using time series data on fish community composition and coral and macroalgae percentage cover between 2006 and 2017 from 57 sites around Mo'orea, Polynesia, we found that fish community diversity predicts temporal stability in fish biomass but did not translate to temporal stability of coral cover. Furthermore, we found limited evidence of directional influence of fish on coral dynamics at temporal and ecosystem scales and no evidence that fish mediate coral recovery rate from disturbance. Our findings suggest that coral reef fisheries management will benefit from maintaining fish diversity but that this level of management is unlikely to strongly mediate coral loss or recovery over time.

Scale dependence of coral reef oases and their environmental correlates

Identifying relatively intact areas within ecosystems and determining the conditions favoring their existence is necessary for effective management in the context of widespread environmental degradation. In this study, we used 3766 surveys of randomly selected sites in the United States and U.S. Territories to identify the correlates of sites categorized as "oases" (defined as sites with relatively high total coral cover). We used occupancy models to evaluate the influence of 10 environmental predictors on the probability that an area (21.2-km² cell) would harbor coral oases defined at four spatial extents: cross-basin, basin, region, and subregion. Across all four spatial extents, oases were more likely to occur in habitats with high light attenuation. The influence of the other environmental predictors on the probability of oasis occurrence were less consistent and varied with the scale of observation. Oases were most likely in areas of low human population density, but this effect was evident only at the cross-basin and subregional extents. At the regional and subregional extents oases were more likely where sea-surface temperature was more variable, whereas at the larger spatial extents the opposite was true. By identifying the correlates of oasis occurrence, the model can inform the prioritization of reef areas for management. Areas with biophysical conditions that confer corals with physiological resilience, as well as limited human impacts, likely support coral reef oases across spatial extents. Our approach is widely applicable to the development of conservation strategies to protect biodiversity and ecosystems in an era of magnified human disturbance.

The past, present, and future of coral reef growth in the Florida Keys

Coral-reef degradation is driving global-scale reductions in reef-building capacity and the ecological, geological, and socioeconomic functions it supports. The persistence of those essential functions will depend on whether coral-reef management is able to rebalance the competing processes of reef accretion and erosion. Here, we reconstructed census-based carbonate budgets of 46 reefs throughout the Florida Keys from 1996 to 2019. We evaluated the environmental and ecological drivers of changing budget states and compared historical trends in reef-accretion potential to millennial-scale baselines of accretion from reef cores and future projections with coral restoration. We found that historically, most reefs had positive carbonate budgets, and many had reef-accretion potential comparable to the ~3 mm year^-1 average accretion rate during the peak of regional reef building ~7000 years ago; however, declines in reef-building Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp. corals following a series of thermal stress events and coral disease outbreaks resulted in a shift from positive to negative budgets for most reefs in the region. By 2019, only ~15% of reefs had positive net carbonate production. Most of those reefs were in inshore, Lower Keys patch-reef habitats with low water clarity, supporting the hypothesis that environments with naturally low irradiance may provide a refugia from thermal stress. We caution that our estimated carbonate budgets are likely overly optimistic; comparison of reef-accretion potential to measured accretion from reef cores suggests that, by not accounting for the role of nonbiological physical and chemical erosion, census-based carbonate budgets may underestimate total erosion by ~1 mm year^-1 (-1.15 kg CaCO₃ m^-2 year^-1 ). Although the present state of Florida's reefs is dire, we demonstrate that the restoration of reef-building corals has the potential to help mitigate declines in reef accretion in some locations, which could allow some key ecosystem functions to be maintained until the threat of global climate change is addressed.

Algal turf structure and composition vary with particulate loads on coral reefs

Algal turfs trap and retain particulates, however, little is known about the relationship between particulate accumulation and taxonomic composition of algal turfs. We investigated how particulate mass related to algal turf structure (length and density) and community composition (taxonomic and functional) on two disparate reefs. Particulate mass was positively related to algal turf length. By contrast, the relationship between particulate mass and turf density was more complex and followed a negative parabolic shape; density increased with particulate mass before stabilising and then declining. Community analyses showed taxonomic, but not functional group compositions differed significantly between reefs and with increasing particulate mass. Our results suggest high loads of particulates accumulated in algal turfs are related to a longer, lower density turf structure, typified by filamentous forms such as Cladophora. Changes in algal turf structure and composition could have a variety of bottom-up influences on coral reef ecosystems.

Frontloading of stress response genes enhances robustness to environmental change in chimeric corals

Background

Chimeras are genetically mixed entities resulting from the fusion of two or more conspecifics. This phenomenon is widely distributed in nature and documented in a variety of animal and plant phyla. In corals, chimerism initiates at early ontogenic states (larvae to young spat) and results from the fusion between two or more closely settled conspecifics. When compared to genetically homogenous colonies (non-chimeras), the literature has listed ecological and evolutionary benefits for traits at the chimeric state, further positioning coral chimerism as an evolutionary rescue instrument. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying this suggestion remain unknown.

Results

To address this question, we developed field monitoring and multi-omics approaches to compare the responses of chimeric and non-chimeric colonies acclimated for 1 year at 10-m depth or exposed to a stressful environmental change (translocation from 10- to 2-m depth for 48h). We showed that chimerism in the stony coral Stylophora pistillata is associated with higher survival over a 1-year period. Transcriptomic analyses showed that chimeras lose transcriptomic plasticity and constitutively express at higher level (frontload) genes responsive to stress. This frontloading may prepare the colony to face at any time environmental stresses which explain its higher robustness.

Conclusions

These results show that chimeras are environmentally robust entities with an enhanced ability to cope with environmental stress. Results further document the potential usefulness of chimeras as a novel reef restoration tool to enhance coral adaptability to environmental change, and confirm that coral chimerism can be an evolutionary rescue instrument.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12915-022-01371-7.

Coral-bleaching responses to climate change across biological scales

The global impacts of climate change are evident in every marine ecosystem. On coral reefs, mass coral bleaching and mortality have emerged as ubiquitous responses to ocean warming, yet one of the greatest challenges of this epiphenomenon is linking information across scientific disciplines and spatial and temporal scales. Here we review some of the seminal and recent coral-bleaching discoveries from an ecological, physiological, and molecular perspective. We also evaluate which data and processes can improve predictive models and provide a conceptual framework that integrates measurements across biological scales. Taking an integrative approach across biological and spatial scales, using for example hierarchical models to estimate major coral-reef processes, will not only rapidly advance coral-reef science but will also provide necessary information to guide decision-making and conservation efforts. To conserve reefs, we encourage implementing mesoscale sanctuaries (thousands of km² ) that transcend national boundaries. Such networks of protected reefs will provide reef connectivity, through larval dispersal that transverse thermal environments, and genotypic repositories that may become essential units of selection for environmentally diverse locations. Together, multinational networks may be the best chance corals have to persist through climate change, while humanity struggles to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero.

Multifaceted role of natural sources for COVID-19 pandemic as marine drugs

COVID-19, which is caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has quickly spread over the world, posing a global health concern. The ongoing epidemic has necessitated the development of novel drugs and potential therapies for patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. Advances in vaccination and medication development, no preventative vaccinations, or viable therapeutics against SARS-CoV-2 infection have been developed to date. As a result, additional research is needed in order to find a long-term solution to this devastating condition. Clinical studies are being conducted to determine the efficacy of bioactive compounds retrieved or synthesized from marine species starting material. The present study focuses on the anti-SARS-CoV-2 potential of marine-derived phytochemicals, which has been investigated utilizing in in silico, in vitro, and in vivo models to determine their effectiveness. Marine-derived biologically active substances, such as flavonoids, tannins, alkaloids, terpenoids, peptides, lectins, polysaccharides, and lipids, can affect SARS-CoV-2 during the viral particle's penetration and entry into the cell, replication of the viral nucleic acid, and virion release from the cell; they can also act on the host's cellular targets. COVID-19 has been proven to be resistant to several contaminants produced from marine resources. This paper gives an overview and summary of the various marine resources as marine drugs and their potential for treating SARS-CoV-2. We discussed at numerous natural compounds as marine drugs generated from natural sources for treating COVID-19 and controlling the current pandemic scenario.

UV filters and their impact on marine life: state of the science, data gaps, and next steps

Sunscreens containing broad-spectrum ultraviolet (UV) filters play an essential role in protecting the skin against the damage induced by sun overexposure. However, the widespread use of sunscreens and other personal care products containing these filters has led to these compounds being widely detected in the environment and being identified as emerging pollutants in marine waters. Concerns raised by laboratory studies investigating the potential impact of UV filters on coral communities have already led to bans on the use of some sunscreens in a few tourist hotspots. Although UV filter pollution may be just one of the many environmental factors impacting coral health worldwide, the media attention surrounding these studies and the legislative changes may lead patients to question dermatologists about the environmental safety of some sunscreen products. This review provides an overview of current knowledge on the impact of UV filters on marine ecosystems, concentrating on recent studies examining the effects of commonly used filters on organisms at low trophic levels and of how alternative approaches, such as metabolomics, can be used to further assess UV filter ecotoxicity. Current gaps in our knowledge are also discussed, most notably the need to increase our understanding of the longer-term fate and behaviour of UV filters in the marine environment, develop more adapted standardized ecotoxicity tests for a wider range of marine species, and evaluate the impact of UV filters on the marine food web. We then discuss future perspectives for the development of new, more environmentally friendly, filters that may enable the use of the most toxic compounds to be reduced without compromising the effectiveness of sunscreen formulations. Finally, we consider how dermatologists play a key role in educating patients on the need for a balanced approach to sun exposure, sun protection, and conservation of the marine environment.

Coral reef restoration for coastal protection: Crafting technical and financial solutions

Coastal erosion, aggravated by coral reef mortality is a major issue for Small Island Developing States. Traditionally gray infrastructure, financed by public budgets has been used to combat beach loss. We examined if three Nature-based Solutions (NbS): (i) coral restoration (green) (ii) restoration + limestone (hybrid) and (iii) restoration + 3D printed concrete (hybrid) could deliver positive outcomes for coastal protection and further incentivize cost sharing for reef conservation, with private beneficiaries. We modelled the impact of restoration on wave attenuation at two reefs off Barbados and simulated up-front and maintenance costs over a 25-year period. All solutions provide additionality when compared to gray infrastructure, especially in mitigating against Sea Level Rise. Restoration was the least costly with the highest risk of failure. The hybrid solutions, were less risky than the green as they provided immediate wave attenuation, alongside complementary services such as increased attractiveness due to the presence of reef fish. Their costs were however between +80% and +450% higher than gray solutions. While this might initially deter the use of NbS, blended finance and in some cases, Payments for Ecosystem Services, could provide options for governments and private beneficiaries to share costs, with ultimately greater benefits for themselves and coral reefs.

Marine protected areas do not buffer corals from bleaching under global warming

BACKGROUND

The rising temperature of the oceans has been identified as the primary driver of mass coral reef declines via coral bleaching (expulsion of photosynthetic endosymbionts). Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been implemented throughout the oceans with the aim of mitigating the impact of local stressors, enhancing fish biomass, and sustaining biodiversity overall. In coral reef regions specifically, protection from local stressors and the enhanced ecosystem function contributed by MPAs are expected to increase coral resistance to global-scale stressors such as marine heatwaves. However, MPAs still suffer from limitations in design, or fail to be adequately enforced, potentially reducing their intended efficacy. Here, we address the hypothesis that the local-scale benefits resulting from MPAs moderate coral bleaching under global warming related stress.

RESULTS

Bayesian analyses reveal that bleaching is expected to occur in both larger and older MPAs when corals are under thermal stress from marine heatwaves (quantified as Degree Heating Weeks, DHW), but this is partially moderated in comparison to the effects of DHW alone. Further analyses failed to identify differences in bleaching prevalence in MPAs relative to non-MPAs for coral reefs experiencing different levels of thermal stress. Finally, no difference in temperatures where bleaching occurs between MPA and non-MPA sites was found.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that bleaching is likely to occur under global warming regardless of protected status. Thus, while protected areas have key roles for maintaining ecosystem function and local livelihoods, combatting the source of global warming remains the best way to prevent the decline of coral reefs via coral bleaching.

Limitations to coral recovery along an environmental stress gradient

Positive feedbacks driving habitat-forming species recovery and population growth are often lost as ecosystems degrade. For such systems, identifying mechanisms that limit the re-establishment of critical positive feedbacks is key to facilitating recovery. Theory predicts the primary drivers limiting system recovery shift from biological to physical as abiotic stress increases, but recent work has demonstrated that this seldom happens. We combined field and laboratory experiments to identify variation in limitations to coral recovery along an environmental stress gradient at Ningaloo Reef and Exmouth Gulf in northwest Australia. Many reefs in the region are coral depauperate due to recent cyclones and thermal stress. In general, recovery trajectories are prolonged due to limited coral recruitment. Consistent with theory, clearer water reefs under low thermal stress appear limited by biological interactions: competition with turf algae caused high mortality of newly settled corals and upright macroalgal stands drove mortality in transplanted juvenile corals. Laboratory experiments showed a positive relationship between crustose coralline algae cover and coral settlement, but only in the absence of sedimentation. Contrary to expectation, coral recovery does not appear limited by the survival or growth of recruits on turbid reefs under higher thermal stress, but to exceptionally low larval supply. Laboratory experiments showed that larval survival and settlement are unaffected by seawater quality across the study region. Rather, connectivity models predicted that many of the more turbid reefs in the Gulf are predominantly self seeded, receiving limited supply under degraded reef states. Overall, we find that the influence of oceanography can overwhelm the influences of physical and biological interactions on recovery potential at locations where environmental stressors are high, whereas populations in relatively benign physical conditions are predominantly structured by local ecological drivers. Such context-dependent information can help guide expectations and assist managers in optimizing strategies for spatial conservation planning for system recovery.

Ecosystem design as an avenue for improving services provided by carbonate producing marine ecosystems

Ecosystem Design (ED) is an approach for constructing habitats that places human needs for ecosystem services at the center of intervention, with the overarching goal of establishing self-sustaining habitats which require limited management. This concept was originally developed for use in mangrove ecosystems, and is understandably controversial, as it markedly diverges from other protection approaches that assign human use a minor priority or exclude it. However, the advantage of ED lies within the considered implementation of these designed ecosystems, thus preserving human benefits from potential later disturbances. Here, we outline the concept of ED in tropical carbonate depositional systems and discuss potential applications to aid ecosystem services such as beach nourishment and protection of coastlines and reef islands at risk from environmental and climate change, CO₂ sequestration, food production, and tourism. Biological carbonate sediment production is a crucial source of stability of reef islands and reef-rimmed coastlines. Careful implementation of designed carbonate depositional ecosystems could help counterbalance sea-level rise and manage documented erosion effects of coastal constructions. Importantly, adhering to the core ethos of ED, careful dynamic assessments which provide a balanced approach to maximizing ecosystem services (e.g., carbonate production), should identify and avoid any potential damages to existing functioning ecosystems.

Twenty years of change in benthic communities across the Belizean Barrier Reef

Disease, storms, ocean warming, and pollution have caused the mass mortality of reef-building corals across the Caribbean over the last four decades. Subsequently, stony corals have been replaced by macroalgae, bacterial mats, and invertebrates including soft corals and sponges, causing changes to the functioning of Caribbean reef ecosystems. Here we describe changes in the absolute cover of benthic reef taxa, including corals, gorgonians, sponges, and algae, at 15 fore-reef sites (12-15m depth) across the Belizean Barrier Reef (BBR) from 1997 to 2016. We also tested whether Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), in which fishing was prohibited but likely still occurred, mitigated these changes. Additionally, we determined whether ocean-temperature anomalies (measured via satellite) or local human impacts (estimated using the Human Influence Index, HII) were related to changes in benthic community structure. We observed a reduction in the cover of reef-building corals, including the long-lived, massive corals Orbicella spp. (from 13 to 2%), and an increase in fleshy and corticated macroalgae across most sites. These and other changes to the benthic communities were unaffected by local protection. The covers of hard-coral taxa, including Acropora spp., Montastraea cavernosa, Orbicella spp., and Porites spp., were negatively related to the frequency of ocean-temperature anomalies. Only gorgonian cover was related, negatively, to our metric of the magnitude of local impacts (HII). Our results suggest that benthic communities along the BBR have experienced disturbances that are beyond the capacity of the current management structure to mitigate. We recommend that managers devote greater resources and capacity to enforcing and expanding existing marine protected areas and to mitigating local stressors, and most importantly, that government, industry, and the public act immediately to reduce global carbon emissions.

Biodiversity conservation policy in megadiverse countries: Comparing policy systems for 2020 targets to inform management in the coming decades

The year 2020 marks a crucial deadline for signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the most important global agreement for biodiversity conservation, which requires nations to meet conservation targets. Managers and decision-makers need a better understanding of the policy systems established to meet conservation targets in order to inform post-2020 CBD policy implementation. This paper compares two policy systems for implementing marine protected areas (MPAs) which protect a threatened source of biodiversity, coral reefs. Comparing a centralized policy system, with power emanating from ministries (Malaysia), with a decentralized policy system, with power concentrated in subnational government (Indonesia), provides insights. Policy process literature is used to build on the already substantial interdisciplinary literature on MPAs, drawing novel insights into policy-makers and how they determine policy problems, shape policy options, and are influenced by political events. Findings are that the tropics-wide coral bleaching event in 2015-2016 fundamentally changed the way managers perceived the problems that biodiversity conservation policy solves. Managers are beginning to prioritize policy responses to climate stressors with the same urgency as historically important stressors like overfishing, implementing responses at starkly different power centers within policy systems. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs), subnational governments, and the private sector are implementing innovative policy responses in the decentralized system, while the same actors in the centralized system face constraints because of its rigid policy framework. Understanding where starkly different power centers, and related dynamism, fall within policy systems allows for more effective reforms and investments for the next iteration of the CBD.

Remoteness does not enhance coral reef resilience

Remote coral reefs are thought to be more resilient to climate change due to their isolation from local stressors like fishing and pollution. We tested this hypothesis by measuring the relationship between local human influence and coral community resilience. Surprisingly, we found no relationship between human influence and resistance to disturbance and some evidence that areas with greater human development may recover from disturbance faster than their more isolated counterparts. Our results suggest remote coral reefs are imperiled by climate change, like so many other geographically isolated ecosystems, and are unlikely to serve as effective biodiversity arks. Only drastic and rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will ensure coral survival. Our results also indicate that some reefs close to large human populations were relatively resilient. Focusing research and conservation resources on these more accessible locations has the potential to provide new insights and maximize conservation outcomes.

Spatial patchiness in change, recruitment, and recovery on coral reefs at Lizard Island following consecutive bleaching events

The world's coral reef ecosystems are steadily being reconfigured by climate change. Lizard Island, on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, offers an opportunity to examine coral reef reassembly following disturbance, as this location has been impacted by consecutive tropical cyclones and consecutive coral bleaching events. Based on repeatedly monitoring the same 349 photoquadrats around Lizard Island over a 5-year period (2016-2021) we revealed that bleaching in 2016 drove a ∼50% reduction in hard coral cover, and a concomitant increase in algal turf cover. From 2018 to 2021, significant increases (>600%) in coral cover were detected on two semi-exposed reefs and were associated with substantial Acropora recruitment. By contrast, fourteen lagoonal and back reefs exhibited virtually no recovery nor Acropora recruitment. Given that the timeframe between disturbances is set to decrease, our results suggest that some recovery is possible immediately after severe cumulative disturbances, although this recovery may be highly spatially heterogenous.

Potential role of marine species-derived bioactive agents in the management of SARS-CoV-2 infection

COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, has resulted in a massive global health crisis. Bioactive molecules extracted or synthesized using starting material obtained from marine species, including griffithsin, plitidepsin and fingolimod are in clinical trials to evaluate their anti-SARS-CoV-2 and anti-HIV efficacies. The current review highlights the anti-SARS-CoV-2 potential of marine-derived phytochemicals explored using in silico, in vitro and in vivo models. The current literature suggests that these molecules have the potential to bind with various key drug targets of SARS-CoV-2. In addition, many of these agents have anti-inflammatory and immunomodulatory potentials and thus could play a role in the attenuation of COVID-19 complications. Overall, these agents may play a role in the management of COVID-19, but further preclinical and clinical studies are still required to establish their role in the mitigation of the current viral pandemic.

Biologia Futura: can co-management protect Saint Martin's corals of Bangladesh?

This study's overarching objective was to assess the effectiveness of co-management in the conservation and responsible extraction of coral resources in Bangladesh. The study examined the existing threats to coral, along with the socio-economic problems of the community. The country boat and rock-added gill nets used for harvesting fishes cause physical damage to the soft corals. The incremental chemical pollutants emanating from agricultural and tourism sources are threatening the existence of the corals. The fishers' community withstands many problems stemming from financial and security mechanisms. The results showed that the co-management could not ensure the community's active participation on an equal basis due to the leading role of the vested interests. By considering various intricate problems, the study recommends adopting a holistic approach that highlight curbing tourist overloads, reducing waste generation, and empowering the community socially and economically.

Coral reefs in the Gilbert Islands of Kiribati: Resistance, resilience, and recovery after more than a decade of multiple stressors

Coral reefs are increasingly affected by a combination of acute and chronic disturbances from climate change and local stressors. The coral reefs of the Republic of Kiribati's Gilbert Islands are exposed to frequent heat stress caused by central-Pacific type El Niño events, and may provide a glimpse into the future of coral reefs in other parts of the world, where the frequency of heat stress events will likely increase due to climate change. Reefs in the Gilbert Islands experienced a series of acute disturbances over the past fifteen years, including mass coral bleaching in 2004-2005 and 2009-2010, and an outbreak of the corallivorous sea star Acanthaster cf solaris, or Crown-of-Thorns (CoTs), in 2014. The local chronic pressures including nutrient loading, sedimentation and fishing vary within the island chain, with highest pressures on the reefs in urbanized South Tarawa Atoll. In this study, we examine how recovery from acute disturbances differs across a gradient of human influence in neighboring Tarawa and Abaiang Atolls from 2012 through 2018. Benthic cover and size frequency data suggests that local coral communities have adjusted to the heat stress via shifts in the community composition to more temperature-tolerant taxa and individuals. In densely populated South Tarawa, we document a phase shift to the weedy and less bleaching-sensitive coral Porites rus, which accounted for 81% of all coral cover by 2018. By contrast, in less populated Abaiang, coral communities remained comparatively more diverse (with higher percentages of Pocillopora and the octocoral Heliopora) after the disturbances, but reefs had lower overall hard coral cover (18%) and were dominated by turf algae (41%). The CoTs outbreak caused a decline in the cover and mean size of massive Porites, the only taxa that was a 'winner' of the coral bleaching events in Abaiang. Although there are signs of recovery, the long-term trajectory of the benthic communities in Abaiang is not yet clear. We suggest three scenarios: they may remain in their current state (dominated by turf algae), undergo a phase shift to dominance by the macroalgae Halimeda, or recover to dominance by thermally tolerant hard coral genera. These findings provide a rare glimpse at the future of coral reefs around the world and the ways they may be affected by climate change, which may allow scientists to better predict how other reefs will respond to increasing heat stress events across gradients of local human disturbance.

Optimizing coral reef recovery with context-specific management actions at prioritized reefs

Assisting the natural recovery of coral reefs through local management actions is needed in response to increasing ecosystem disturbances in the Anthropocene. There is growing evidence that commonly used resilience-based passive management approaches may not be sufficient to maintain coral reef key functions. We synthesize and discuss advances in coral reef recovery research, and its application to coral reef conservation and restoration practices. We then present a framework to guide the decision-making of reef managers, scientists and other stakeholders, to best support reef recovery after a disturbance. The overall aim of this management framework is to catalyse reef recovery, to minimize recovery times, and to limit the need for ongoing management interventions into the future. Our framework includes two main stages: first, a prioritization method for assessment following a large-scale disturbance, which is based on a reef's social-ecological values, and on a classification of the likelihood of recovery or succession resulting in degraded, novel, hybrid or historical states. Second, a flow chart to assist with determining management actions for highly valued reefs. Potential actions are chosen based on the ecological attributes of the disturbed reef, defined during ecological assessments. Depending on the context, management actions may include (1) substrata rehabilitation actions to facilitate natural coral recruitment, (2) repopulating actions using active restoration techniques, (3) resilience-based management actions and (4) monitoring coral recruitment and growth to assess the effectiveness of management interventions. We illustrate the proposed decision framework with a case study of typhoon-damaged eastern outer reefs in Palau, Micronesia. The decisions made following this framework lead to the conclusion that some reefs may not return to their historical state for many decades. However, if motivation and funds are available, new management approaches can be explored to assist coral reefs at valued locations to return to a functional state providing key ecosystem services.