2013 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk

Cardiovascular events according to blood pressure thresholds recommended by ACC/AHA

AIM

The latest guidelines from ACC/AHA define hypertension at systolic blood pressure (SBP) 130-139 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) 80-89 mmHg in contrast to guidelines from ESC/ESH defining hypertension at SBP ≥ 140 mmHg or DBP ≥ 90 mmHg. The aim was to determine whether the ACC/AHA definition of hypertension identifies persons at elevated risk for future cardiovascular outcome.

METHODS

In a Danish prospective cardiovascular study, 19,721 white men and women aged 20-98 years were examined up to five occasions between 1976 and 2015. The population was followed until December 2018. The ACC/AHA definition of the BP levels were applied: Normal: SBP <120 mmHg and DBP <80 mmHg, Elevated: SBP 120-129 mmHg and DBP <80 mmHg, Stage 1: SBP 130-139 mmHg or DBP 80-89 mmHg, Stage 2: SBP ≥140 mmHg or DBP ≥90 mmHg. Absolute 10-year risk was calculated taking repeated examinations, covariates, and competing risk into account.

RESULTS

For all outcomes, the 10-year risk in stage 1 hypertension did not differ significantly from risk in subjects with normal BP: The 10-year risk of cardiovascular events in stage 1 hypertension was 14.1% [95% CI 13.2;15.0] and did not differ significantly from the risk in normal BP at 12.8% [95% CI 11.1;14.5] (p = 0.19). The risk was highest in stage 2 hypertension 19.4% [95% CI 18.9;20.0] and differed significantly from normal BP, elevated BP, and stage 1 hypertension (p < 0.001). The 10-year risk of cardiovascular death was 6.6% [95% CI 5.9;7.4] in stage 1 hypertension and did not differ significantly from the risk in normal BP at 5.7% [95% CI 4.1;7.3] (p = 0.33).

CONCLUSIONS

Stage 1 hypertension as defined by the ACC/AHA guidelines has the same risk for future cardiovascular events as normal BP. In contrast, the definition of hypertension as suggested by ESC/ESH identifies patients with elevated risk of cardiovascular events.

Relationships between HDL subpopulation proteome and HDL function in overweight/obese people with and without coronary heart disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The structure-function relationships of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) subpopulations are not well understood. Our aim was to examine the interrelationships between HDL particle proteome and HDL functionality in subjects with and without coronary heart disease (CHD).

METHODS

We isolated 5 different HDL subpopulations based on charge, size, and apolipoprotein A1 (APOA1) content from the plasma of 33 overweight/obese CHD patients and 33 age-and body mass index (BMI)-matched CHD-free subjects. We measured the relative molar concentration of HDL-associated proteins by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) and assessed particle functionality.

RESULTS

We quantified 110 proteins associated with the 5 APOA1-containing HDL subpopulations. The relative molar concentration of these proteins spanned five orders of magnitude. Only 10 proteins were present in >1% while 73 were present in <0.1% concentration. Only 6 of the 10 most abundant proteins were apolipoproteins. Interestingly, the largest (α-1) and the smallest (preβ-1) HDL particles contained the most diverse proteomes. The protein composition of each HDL subpopulation was altered in CHD cases as compared to controls with the most prominent differences in preβ-1 and α-1 particles. APOA2 concentration was positively correlated with preβ-1 particle functionality (ABCA1-CEC/mg APOA1 in preβ-1) (R2 = 0.42, p = 0.005), while APOE concentration was inversely correlated with large-HDL particle functionality (SRBI-CEC/mg APOA1 in α-1+α-2) (R2 = 0.18, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The protein composition of the different HDL subpopulations was altered differentially in CHD patients. The functionality of the small and large HDL particles correlated with the protein content of APOA2 and APOE, respectively. Our data indicate that distinct particle subspecies and specific particle associated proteins provide new information about the role of HDL in CHD.

Coronary Artery Calcium for Risk Stratification Among Persons With Very High HDL Cholesterol

Background

Compared to normal high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol values, very high HDL cholesterol is associated with a higher incidence of mortality and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). As such, clinical risk stratification among persons with very high HDL cholesterol is challenging.

Objectives

Among persons with very high HDL cholesterol, the purpose was to determine the prevalence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) and compare the association between traditional risk factors vs CAC for all-cause mortality and ASCVD.

Methods

The primary analysis was completed among 446 participants from the Cedars-Sinai Medical Center of the CAC Consortium with very high HDL cholesterol (≥77 mg/dL in men, ≥97 mg/dL in women). Cox proportional hazards regression assessed the association of CAC and traditional risk factors with all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 10.7 years. Replication and validation analyses were performed for all-cause mortality among 119 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with very high HDL cholesterol, who also had information on incident ASCVD.

Results

The mean age was 57.9 years old, 49% were women, and the median HDL cholesterol was 98 mg/dL. One-half of participants (50%) had prevalent CAC, in whom the median CAC score was 118. Prevalent CAC conferred a 3.6-fold higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 3.64; 95% CI: 1.21-11.01), which appeared to be a more robust predictor than individual traditional risk factors beyond age. In the validation sample, prevalent CAC but not individual traditional risk factors were associated with all-cause mortality (HR: 2.39; 95% CI: 1.07-5.34) and a 4.0-fold higher risk of ASCVD (HR: 4.06; 95% CI: 1.11-14.84).

Conclusions

Measurement of CAC may facilitate clinical risk assessment among individuals with very high HDL cholesterol.

Home Blood Pressure Variability Risk Prediction Score for Cardiovascular Disease Using Data From the J-HOP Study

BACKGROUND

Home blood pressure (BP) is more closely associated with cardiovascular event risk than office BP, but cardiovascular risk prediction based on home BP variability is lacking. This study developed a simple cardiovascular event prediction score, including home BP variability data, from the J-HOP study (Japan Morning Surge-Home Blood Pressure).

METHODS

The J-HOP study extended follow-up from December 2017 to May 2018 generated the study data set (4231 patients). Cardiovascular events included fatal/nonfatal stroke (n=94), coronary heart disease (n=124), heart failure (n=42), and aortic dissection (n=8). Cox proportional hazards models were used to predict overall cardiovascular risk. Potential covariates included age, sex, body mass index, smoking, history of diabetes, statin use, history of cardiovascular disease, total cholesterol:high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, office systolic BP (SBP), mean of morning-evening average (MEave), home SBP, and average real variability of MEave home SBP. A risk score and models were constructed, and model performance was assessed.

RESULTS

Model performance was best when average real variability of MEave SBP was included (C statistic, 0.760). The risk score assigns points for age (5-year bands), sex, cardiovascular disease history, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, mean MEave home SBP, and average real variability of MEave home SBP. Estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk ranged from ≤0.6% (score ≤0) to >32% (score ≥26). Calibration 2 statistics values for the model (2.66) and risk score (5.29) indicated excellent goodness of fit.

CONCLUSIONS

This simple cardiovascular disease prediction algorithm, including day-by-day home BP variability, could be used as part of a home BP-centered approach to hypertension management in clinical practice.

Sex inequalities in cardiovascular risk prediction

AIMS

Evaluate sex differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, including use of (i) optimal sex-specific risk predictors and (ii) sex-specific risk thresholds.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prospective cohort study using UK Biobank, including 121 724 and 182 632 healthy men and women, respectively, aged 38-73 years at baseline. There were 11 899 (men) and 9110 (women) incident CVD cases (hospitalization or mortality) with a median of 12.1 years of follow-up. We used recalibrated pooled cohort equations (PCEs; 7.5% 10-year risk threshold as per US guidelines), QRISK3 (10% 10-year risk threshold as per UK guidelines), and Cox survival models using sparse sex-specific variable sets (via LASSO stability selection) to predict CVD risk separately in men and women. LASSO stability selection included 12 variables in common between men and women, with 3 additional variables selected for men and 1 for women. C-statistics were slightly lower for PCE than QRISK3 and models using stably selected variables, but were similar between men and women: 0.67 (0.66-0.68), 0.70 (0.69-0.71), and 0.71 (0.70-0.72) in men and 0.69 (0.68-0.70), 0.72 (0.71-0.73), and 0.72 (0.71-0.73) in women for PCE, QRISK3, and models using stably selected variables, respectively. At current clinically implemented risk thresholds, test sensitivity was markedly lower in women than men for all models: at 7.5% 10-year risk, sensitivity was 65.1 and 68.2% in men and 24.0 and 33.4% in women for PCE and models using stably selected variables, respectively; at 10% 10-year risk, sensitivity was 53.7 and 52.3% in men and 16.8 and 20.2% in women for QRISK3 and models using stably selected variables, respectively. Specificity was correspondingly higher in women than men. However, the sensitivity in women at 5% 10-year risk threshold increased to 50.1, 58.5, and 55.7% for PCE, QRISK3, and models using stably selected variables, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Use of sparse sex-specific variables improved CVD risk prediction compared with PCE but not QRISK3. At current risk thresholds, PCE and QRISK3 work less well for women than men, but sensitivity was improved in women using a 5% 10-year risk threshold. Use of sex-specific risk thresholds should be considered in any re-evaluation of CVD risk calculators.

Prevalence, Trends, and Subsequent Outcomes of Prediabetes in the United States, 1999-2018

OBJECTIVE

To determine prevalence, trends, and subsequent outcomes of prediabetes defined by American Diabetes Association (ADA), World Health Organization (WHO), and International Expert Committee (IEC) criteria in the US between 1999 and 2018.

METHODS

Ten cycles of cross-sectional National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data were included. Prediabetes was defined by ADA, WHO, and IEC criteria. Unadjusted or covariate adjusted prevalence and trends of prediabetes were estimated. Cox proportional regression model was performed to evaluate the association between prediabetes and all-cause, cardiovascular, or diabetes-related mortality.

RESULTS

Among the 59369 participants included (weighted mean age, 41.1 years; 48.7% male), the prevalence of prediabetes was 29.4% in ADA criteria, 16.3% in WHO criteria, and 5.0% in IEC criteria. The covariate adjusted prevalence of prediabetes defined by ADA criteria increased significantly in at least two folds from 15.6% in 1999-2002 to 37.3% in 2015-2018 (p < 0.001). Similar significant increased trends were observed in WHO and IEC criteria (p < 0.001). Compared with normal glycemia, prediabetes participants had higher adjusted risk of diabetes-related mortality irrespective of the criteria used (ADA: hazard ratio [HR] 9.11 [95% CI, 5.83-14.22]; WHO: HR 5.35 [95% CI, 3.01-9.51]; IEC: HR 9.64 [95% CI, 5.92-15.71]). No significant associations between prediabetes and all-cause or cardiovascular mortality were observed in the adjusted models.

CONCLUSIONS

In the US, approximately 1 in 3 individuals have prediabetes according to ADA criteria. The prevalence of prediabetes has shown a significant and more than twofold increase over the past two decades, posing an elevated risk of diabetes-related mortality, regardless of the criteria applied.

Polygenic risk score adds to a clinical risk score in the prediction of cardiovascular disease in a clinical setting

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A cardiovascular disease polygenic risk score (CVD-PRS) can stratify individuals into different categories of cardiovascular risk, but whether the addition of a CVD-PRS to clinical risk scores improves the identification of individuals at increased risk in a real-world clinical setting is unknown.

METHODS

The Genetics and the Vascular Health Check Study (GENVASC) was embedded within the UK National Health Service Health Check (NHSHC) programme which invites individuals between 40-74 years of age without known CVD to attend an assessment in a UK general practice where CVD risk factors are measured and a CVD risk score (QRISK2) is calculated. Between 2012-2020, 44,141 individuals (55.7% females, 15.8% non-white) who attended an NHSHC in 147 participating practices across two counties in England were recruited and followed. When 195 individuals (cases) had suffered a major CVD event (CVD death, myocardial infarction or acute coronary syndrome, coronary revascularisation, stroke), 396 propensity-matched controls with a similar risk profile were identified, and a nested case-control genetic study undertaken to see if the addition of a CVD-PRS to QRISK2 in the form of an integrated risk tool (IRT) combined with QRISK2 would have identified more individuals at the time of their NHSHC as at high risk (QRISK2 10-year CVD risk of ≥10%), compared with QRISK2 alone.

RESULTS

The distribution of the standardised CVD-PRS was significantly different in cases compared with controls (cases mean score .32; controls, -.18, P = 8.28×10-9). QRISK2 identified 61.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 54.3%-68.4%) of individuals who subsequently developed a major CVD event as being at high risk at their NHSHC, while the combination of QRISK2 and IRT identified 68.7% (95% CI: 61.7%-75.2%), a relative increase of 11.7% (P = 1×10-4). The odds ratio (OR) of being up-classified was 2.41 (95% CI: 1.03-5.64, P = .031) for cases compared with controls. In individuals aged 40-54 years, QRISK2 identified 26.0% (95% CI: 16.5%-37.6%) of those who developed a major CVD event, while the combination of QRISK2 and IRT identified 38.4% (95% CI: 27.2%-50.5%), indicating a stronger relative increase of 47.7% in the younger age group (P = .001). The combination of QRISK2 and IRT increased the proportion of additional cases identified similarly in women as in men, and in non-white ethnicities compared with white ethnicity. The findings were similar when the CVD-PRS was added to the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease pooled cohort equations (ASCVD-PCE) or SCORE2 clinical scores.

CONCLUSIONS

In a clinical setting, the addition of genetic information to clinical risk assessment significantly improved the identification of individuals who went on to have a major CVD event as being at high risk, especially among younger individuals. The findings provide important real-world evidence of the potential value of implementing a CVD-PRS into health systems.

Predicted Cardiovascular Risk by the PREVENT Equations in US Adults With Stage 1 Hypertension

BACKGROUND

The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure guideline recommends initiation of antihypertensive medication for adults with stage 1 hypertension (systolic blood pressure, 130-139 mm Hg, or diastolic blood pressure, 80-89 mm Hg) and 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk ≥10% estimated by the pooled cohort equations (PCEs). In 2023, the American Heart Association published the predicting risk of cardiovascular disease events (PREVENT) equations to estimate ASCVD and total cardiovascular disease risk.

METHODS

We analyzed US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2013 to 2020 for 1703 adults aged 30 to 79 years without self-reported cardiovascular disease with stage 1 hypertension. We estimated 10-year ASCVD risk by the PCEs and 10-year ASCVD and total cardiovascular disease risk by the base PREVENT equations. Analyses were weighted to represent noninstitutionalized US adults with stage 1 hypertension.

RESULTS

Mean 10-year ASCVD risk was 5.4% (95% CI, 5.0%-5.9%) and 2.9% (95% CI, 2.7%-3.1%) using the PCEs and PREVENT equations, respectively. The proportion with 10-year ASCVD risk of 10% to <15% and ≥15% was 8.1% and 7.8% estimated by the PCEs, respectively, and 3.0% and 0.3% estimated by the PREVENT equations, respectively. No participants had a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10% on the PREVENT equations and <10% on the PCEs, while 12.5% had a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10% on the PCEs and <10% on the PREVENT equations. The mean 10-year total cardiovascular disease risk estimated by the PREVENT equations was lower than the mean 10-year ASCVD risk on the PCEs.

CONCLUSIONS

Among US adults with stage 1 hypertension, the 10-year predicted ASCVD risk estimated by the PREVENT equations was approximately half the risk estimated by the PCEs.

Cardiovascular safety of dihydroergotamine mesylate delivered by precision olfactory delivery (INP104) for the acute treatment of migraine

OBJECTIVE

To report the cardiovascular (CV) safety of dihydroergotamine mesylate (DHE) administered by precision olfactory delivery (INP104) from two clinical trials.

BACKGROUND

Although the absolute risk is low, migraine is associated with an increased risk of CV events. DHE is a highly effective acute treatment for migraine, but due to its theoretical risk of promoting arterial vasoconstriction, DHE is contraindicated in patients with CV disease or an unfavorable risk factor profile. The INP104 is a novel drug-device combination product approved for acute treatment of migraine that delivers DHE to the upper nasal space using precision olfactory delivery (POD®).

METHODS

The STOP 101 was a Phase 1 open-label study that assessed the safety, tolerability, and bioavailability of INP104 1.45 mg, intravenous DHE 1.0 mg, and MIGRANAL (nasal DHE) 2.0 mg in healthy participants. The STOP 301 was a pivotal Phase 3, open-label study that assessed the safety, tolerability, and exploratory efficacy of INP104 1.45 mg over 24 and 52 weeks in patients with migraine. In both studies, active or a history of CV disease, as well as significant CV risk factors, were exclusion criteria.

RESULTS

In STOP 101, 36 participants received one or more doses of investigational product. Treatment with intravenous DHE, but not INP104 or nasal DHE, resulted in clinically relevant changes from baseline in systolic blood pressure (BP; 11.4 mmHg, 95% confidence interval [CI] 7.9-15.0) and diastolic BP (13.3 mmHg, 95% CI 9.4-17.1) at 5 min post-dose, persisting up to 30 min post-dose for systolic BP (6.3 mmHg; 95% CI 3.0-9.5) and diastolic BP (7.9 mmHg, 95% CI 3.9-11.9). None of the treatments produced any clinically meaningful electrocardiogram (ECG) changes. In STOP 301, 354 patients received one or more doses of INP104. Over 24 weeks, five patients (1.4%) experienced a non-serious, vascular treatment-emergent adverse event (TEAE). Minimal changes were observed for BP and ECG parameters over 24 or 52 weeks. Off-protocol concomitant use of triptans and other ergot derivatives did not result in any TEAEs.

CONCLUSION

In two separate studies, INP104 demonstrated a favorable CV safety profile when used in a study population without CV-related contraindications.

Blood pressure measurement and assessment of arterial structure and function: an expert group position paper

Measuring blood pressure (BP) and investigating arterial hemodynamics are essential in understanding cardiovascular disease and assessing cardiovascular risk. Several methods are used to measure BP in the doctor's office, at home, or over 24 h under ambulatory conditions. Similarly, several noninvasive methods have been introduced for assessing arterial structure and function; these methods differ for the large arteries, the small ones, and the capillaries. Consequently, when studying arterial hemodynamics, the clinician is faced with a multitude of assessment methods whose technical details, advantages, and limitations are sometimes unclear. Moreover, the conditions and procedures for their optimal implementation, and/or the reference normality values for the parameters they yield are not always taken into sufficient consideration. Therefore, a practice guideline summarizing the main methods and their use in clinical practice is needed. This expert group position paper was developed by an international group of scientists after a two-day meeting during which each of the most used methods and techniques for blood pressure measurement and arterial function and structure evaluation were presented and discussed, focusing on their advantages, limitations, indications, normal values, and their pragmatic clinical application.

Impact of Nonalcoholic Hepatic Steatosis on the Warranty Period of a Coronary Artery Calcium Score of 0: Results From the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

For individuals with a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score of 0, CAC rescans at appropriate timings are recommended, depending on individual risk profiles. Although nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, recently redefined as metabolic-associated fatty liver disease, is a risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events, its relationship with the warranty period of a CAC score of 0 has not been elucidated.

METHODS

A total of 1944 subjects from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with a baseline CAC score of 0, presence or absence of nonalcoholic hepatic steatosis, and at least 1 follow-up computed tomography scan were included. Nonalcoholic hepatic steatosis was defined using nonenhanced computed tomography and liver/spleen attenuation ratio <1. The association between nonalcoholic hepatic steatosis and new CAC incidence (CAC score >0) was evaluated using a Weibull survival model.

RESULTS

Nonalcoholic hepatic steatosis was identified in 268 (14%) participants. Participants with nonalcoholic hepatic steatosis had higher CAC incidence than those without nonalcoholic hepatic steatosis. Nonalcoholic hepatic steatosis was independently associated with new CAC incidence after adjustment for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk factors (hazard ratio, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.05-1.57]; P=0.015). Using a 25% testing yield (25% of participants with zero CAC at baseline would be expected to have developed a CAC score >0), the warranty period of a CAC score of 0 in participants with nonalcoholic hepatic steatosis was shorter than in those without nonalcoholic hepatic steatosis (4.7 and 6.3 years). This association was consistent regardless of sex, race/ethnicity, age, and 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Nonalcoholic hepatic steatosis had an impact on the warranty period of a CAC score of 0. The study suggests that the time period until a CAC rescan should be shorter in those with nonalcoholic hepatic steatosis and a CAC score of 0.

Role of mitochondrial homeostasis in D-galactose-induced cardiovascular ageing from bench to bedside

Ageing is an inevitable phenomenon which affects the cellular to the organism level in the progression of the time. Oxidative stress and inflammation are now widely regarded as the key processes involved in the aging process, which may then cause significant harm to mitochondrial DNA, leading to apoptosis. Normal circulatory function is a significant predictor of disease-free life expectancy. Indeed, disorders affecting the cardiovascular system, which are becoming more common, are the primary cause of worldwide morbidity, disability, and mortality. Cardiovascular aging may precede or possibly underpin overall, age-related health decline. Numerous studies have foundmitochondrial mechanistc approachplays a vital role in the in the onset and development of aging. The D-galactose (D-gal)-induced aging model is well recognized and commonly used in the aging study. In this review we redeposit the association of the previous and current studies on mitochondrial homeostasis and its underlying mechanisms in D-galactose cardiovascular ageing. Further we focus the novel and the treatment strategies to combat the major complication leading to the cardiovascular ageing.

Proteomic signatures improve risk prediction for common and rare diseases

For many diseases there are delays in diagnosis due to a lack of objective biomarkers for disease onset. Here, in 41,931 individuals from the United Kingdom Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project, we integrated measurements of ~3,000 plasma proteins with clinical information to derive sparse prediction models for the 10-year incidence of 218 common and rare diseases (81-6,038 cases). We then compared prediction models developed using proteomic data with models developed using either basic clinical information alone or clinical information combined with data from 37 clinical assays. The predictive performance of sparse models including as few as 5 to 20 proteins was superior to the performance of models developed using basic clinical information for 67 pathologically diverse diseases (median delta C-index = 0.07; range = 0.02-0.31). Sparse protein models further outperformed models developed using basic information combined with clinical assay data for 52 diseases, including multiple myeloma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, motor neuron disease, pulmonary fibrosis and dilated cardiomyopathy. For multiple myeloma, single-cell RNA sequencing from bone marrow in newly diagnosed patients showed that four of the five predictor proteins were expressed specifically in plasma cells, consistent with the strong predictive power of these proteins. External replication of sparse protein models in the EPIC-Norfolk study showed good generalizability for prediction of the six diseases tested. These findings show that sparse plasma protein signatures, including both disease-specific proteins and protein predictors shared across several diseases, offer clinically useful prediction of common and rare diseases.

Risk of Cardiovascular Events in Adults Aged 40 to 79 Years with Diagnosed Hypertension, High Cholesterol, and/or Diabetes but Not on Medications: Findings from Nationwide Cross-Sectional Studies

Many people with diagnosed hypertension, high cholesterol, and/or diabetes are not receiving drug treatment, partly because they perceive their cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk as low. This study aimed to quantify the risk for future CVD events, either first or recurrent, in people with diagnosed hypertension, high cholesterol, and/or diabetes but not on medications for any of these conditions. Participants aged 40-79 years who had been diagnosed with hypertension, high cholesterol, and/or diabetes but were not on medications were identified from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys cycles 1999 to 2018. Among them, those with known CVD and those without known CVD but with complete data for estimating their 10-year CVD risk were included in this study. The participants were classified as (1) "high-risk" if they had known CVD or a 10-year predicted CVD risk ≥ 7.5% or (2) "low-risk" if they had a 10-year predicted CVD risk < 7.5%. Of the 5187 participants included, 2201 had known major CVD (n = 490, 9.45%) or a 10-year predicted CVD risk ≥ 7.5% (n = 1711, 32.99%), corresponding to a weighted proportion of 34.83% (95% CI: 33.15 to 36.51%) in the US general population. The proportions of high-risk participants were much higher in the elderly (65.50% for 60-69 years and 97.86% for 70-79 years), males (45.13%), and non-Hispanic Blacks (42.15%) than in others (all p < 0.001). These patterns were consistent across survey cycles during 1999-2018. Additional analyses that classified the participants into groups above or below the treatment threshold (rather than high- or low-risk groups) according to current guidelines yielded similar results. A comparison of the 2201 untreated high-risk participants with other participants who had been diagnosed with hypertension, high cholesterol, and/or diabetes and were on medications for these conditions showed that "lower BMI", "smaller waist circumference", and a "non-diabetic" status, among others, were associated with a higher likelihood of "not taking medications". In conclusion, approximately one-third of the US adults aged 40 to 79 years with diagnosed hypertension, high cholesterol, and/or diabetes but not on medications had known CVD or a 10-year predicted CVD risk ≥ 7.5%, and this proportion was little changed over the past two decades. Interventions targeted at the subgroups with particular characteristics identified in this study may help improve the management of CVD and its risk factors.

Mitochondrial related variants associated with cardiovascular traits

Introduction

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is responsible for over 30% of mortality worldwide. CVD arises from the complex influence of molecular, clinical, social, and environmental factors. Despite the growing number of autosomal genetic variants contributing to CVD, the cause of most CVDs is still unclear. Mitochondria are crucial in the pathophysiology, development and progression of CVDs; the impact of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variants and mitochondrial haplogroups in the context of CVD has recently been highlighted.

Aims

We investigated the role of genetic variants in both mtDNA and nuclear-encoded mitochondrial genes (NEMG) in CVD, including coronary artery disease (CAD), hypertension, and serum lipids in the UK Biobank, with sub-group analysis for diabetes.

Methods

We investigated 371,542 variants in 2,527 NEMG, along with 192 variants in 32 mitochondrial genes in 381,994 participants of the UK Biobank, stratifying by presence of diabetes.

Results

Mitochondrial variants showed associations with CVD, hypertension, and serum lipids. Mitochondrial haplogroup J was associated with CAD and serum lipids, whereas mitochondrial haplogroups T and U were associated with CVD. Among NEMG, variants within Nitric Oxide Synthase 3 (NOS3) showed associations with CVD, CAD, hypertension, as well as diastolic and systolic blood pressure. We also identified Translocase Of Outer Mitochondrial Membrane 40 (TOMM40) variants associated with CAD; Solute carrier family 22 member 2 (SLC22A2) variants associated with CAD and CVD; and HLA-DQA1 variants associated with hypertension. Variants within these three genes were also associated with serum lipids.

Conclusion

Our study demonstrates the relevance of mitochondrial related variants in the context of CVD. We have linked mitochondrial haplogroup U to CVD, confirmed association of mitochondrial haplogroups J and T with CVD and proposed new markers of hypertension and serum lipids in the context of diabetes. We have also evidenced connections between the etiological pathways underlying CVDs, blood pressure and serum lipids, placing NOS3, SLC22A2, TOMM40 and HLA-DQA1 genes as common nexuses.

Intestinal Blastocystis is linked to healthier diets and more favorable cardiometabolic outcomes in 56,989 individuals from 32 countries

Diet impacts human health, influencing body adiposity and the risk of developing cardiometabolic diseases. The gut microbiome is a key player in the diet-health axis, but while its bacterial fraction is widely studied, the role of micro-eukaryotes, including Blastocystis, is underexplored. We performed a global-scale analysis on 56,989 metagenomes and showed that human Blastocystis exhibits distinct prevalence patterns linked to geography, lifestyle, and dietary habits. Blastocystis presence defined a specific bacterial signature and was positively associated with more favorable cardiometabolic profiles and negatively with obesity (p < 1e-16) and disorders linked to altered gut ecology (p < 1e-8). In a diet intervention study involving 1,124 individuals, improvements in dietary quality were linked to weight loss and increases in Blastocystis prevalence (p = 0.003) and abundance (p < 1e-7). Our findings suggest a potentially beneficial role for Blastocystis, which may help explain personalized host responses to diet and downstream disease etiopathogenesis.

Lipid control and stroke risk in atrial fibrillation patients treated with direct oral anticoagulants and statins

INTRODUCTION

The risk of ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) with intensive lipid control by statins among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who require direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) is unclear. We aimed to determine the risks of ischemic stroke and ICH in AF patients treated with DOAC and statins.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In a population-based retrospective cohort study, we identified AF patients concurrently on DOAC and statins from 2015 to 2021 in Hong Kong. Primary outcome was ischemic stroke. Secondary outcomes were ICH and death. We correlated study outcomes with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) as time-varying, continuous variables with restricted cubic spline. In secondary analyses, the risks of study outcomes with statin intensity (low, moderate, high) were determined by multivariable time-dependent marginal structural Cox models.

RESULTS

We identified 32,752 AF patients co-prescribed with DOAC and statins. Lower LDL-C (p < 0.001) and higher HDL-C (p < 0.001) levels were associated with lower risk of ischemic stroke but not significantly associated with ICH. LDL-C of <1.8 mmol/L (70 mg/dL) was not associated with mortality (19.6% vs 18.4%, difference 1.2% [95% CI -0.35 to 2.13]). High-intensity statin was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke compared with low-intensity statin (weighted Cox-specific hazard ratio [95% CI]: 0.82 [0.67-0.99], p = 0.040) independent of LDL-C levels. Similar associations were found in 11,444 AF patients with a history of ischemic stroke.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Intensive lipid control by high-intensity statins was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke in AF patients who required DOACs and did not appear to increase the risk of ICH.

Comprehensive analysis of shared risk genes and immunity-metabolisms between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and atherosclerosis via bulk and single-cell transcriptome analyses

Objective

and design: Considering the clinical link between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and atherosclerosis (AS), we performed bioinformatics analysis to uncover their pathogenic interrelationship.

Methods and results

Data from the U.S. National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2018 were included. Among 4851 participants in NHANES, NAFLD was significantly associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk (ASCVD risk) (OR = 2.32, 95%CI: 2.04-2.65, P < 0.0001). We conducted WGCNA analysis for NAFLD (GSE130970) and AS (GSE28829) and identified three modules positively related to NAFLD severity and two modules accelerating atherosclerosis plaque progression. 198 key-modules genes were obtained via overlapping these modules. Next, we mined the disease-controlled differentially expressed genes (DEGs) from NAFLD (GSE89632) and AS (GSE100927), respectively. The final common risk genes (ACP5, TP53I3, RPS6KA1, TYMS, TREM2, CA12, and IFI27) were defined by intersecting the upregulated DEGs with 198 genes and validated in new datasets (GSE48452 and GSE43292). Importantly, they showed good diagnostic ability for NAFLD and AS. Immune infiltration analysis showed both illnesses have dysregulated immunity. Analysis of single-cell sequencing datasets NAFLD (GSE179886) and AS (GSE159677) uncovered different abnormal expressions of seven common genes in different immune cells while highlighting metabolic disturbances including upregulation of fatty acid biosynthesis, downregulation of fatty acid degradation and elongation.

Conclusion

We found 7 shared hub genes with good diagnostic ability and depicted the landscapes of immune and metabolism involved in NAFLD and AS. Our results provided a comprehensive association between them and may contribute to developing potential intervention strategies for targeting both disorders based on these risk factors.

Treatment drop-in in a contemporary cohort used to derive cardiovascular risk prediction equations

BACKGROUND

No routinely recommended cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction equations have adjusted for CVD preventive medications initiated during follow-up (treatment drop-in) in their derivation cohorts. This will lead to underestimation of risk when equations are applied in clinical practice if treatment drop-in is common. We aimed to quantify the treatment drop-in in a large contemporary national cohort to determine whether equations are likely to require adjustment.

METHODS

Eight de-identified individual-level national health administrative datasets in Aotearoa New Zealand were linked to establish a cohort of almost all New Zealanders without CVD and aged 30-74 years in 2006. Individuals dispensing blood-pressure-lowering and/or lipid-lowering medications between 1 July 2006 and 31 December 2006 (baseline dispensing), and in each 6-month period during 12 years' follow-up to 31 December 2018 (follow-up dispensing), were identified. Person-years of treatment drop-in were determined.

RESULTS

A total of 1 399 348 (80%) out of the 1 746 695 individuals in the cohort were not dispensed CVD medications at baseline. Blood-pressure-lowering and/or lipid-lowering treatment drop-in accounted for 14% of follow-up time in the group untreated at baseline and increased significantly with increasing predicted baseline 5-year CVD risk (12%, 31%, 34% and 37% in <5%, 5-9%, 10-14% and ≥15% risk groups, respectively) and with increasing age (8% in 30-44 year-olds to 30% in 60-74 year-olds).

CONCLUSIONS

CVD preventive treatment drop-in accounted for approximately one-third of follow-up time among participants typically eligible for preventive treatment (≥5% 5-year predicted risk). Equations derived from cohorts with long-term follow-up that do not adjust for treatment drop-in effect will underestimate CVD risk in higher risk individuals and lead to undertreatment. Future CVD risk prediction studies need to address this potential flaw.

Future burden of myocardial infarction in Australia: impact on health outcomes between 2019 and 2038

BACKGROUND

Myocardial infarction (MI) remains a major health burden in Australia. Yet the future burden of MI has not been extensively studied for the Australian population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A multistate lifetable model was constructed to estimate the lifetime risk of MI and project the health burden of MI for the Australian population aged between 40 and 100 years over a 20-year period (2019-2038). Data for the model were primarily sourced from the Victorian-linked dataset and supplemented with other national data. The lifetime risk of MI at age 40 was estimated as 24.4% for males and 13.2% for females in 2018. From 2019 to 2038, 891 142 Australians were projected to develop incident MI. By 2038, the model estimated there would be 702 226 people with prevalent MI, 51 262 incident non-fatal MI, and 3717 incident fatal MI; these numbers represent a significant increase compared to the 2019 estimates, with a 27.0% (148 827), 62.0% (19 629), and 104.7% (1901) rise, respectively. Projected years of life lived (YLL) (5% discount) accrued by the Australian population was 174 795 232 (84 356 304 in males and 90 438 928 in females), with 7 657 423 YLL among people with MI (4 997 009 in males and 2 660 414 in females).

CONCLUSION

The burden of MI was projected to increase between 2019 and 2038 in Australia. The outcomes of the model provide important information for decision-makers to prioritize population-wide prevention strategies to reduce the burden of MI.

Surgical Outcomes in Octogenarians with Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction following Isolated Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting-A Propensity Score Matched Analysis

Background/Objectives: The demographic shift towards an aging population necessitates a reevaluation of surgical interventions like coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in octogenarians. This study aims to elucidate the outcomes of CABG in octogenarians with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), a group traditionally considered at high risk for such procedures. Methods: Conducted across four academic hospitals in Germany from 2017 to 2023, this retrospective multicenter study assessed 100 patients (50 octogenarians ≥80 years and 50 non-octogenarians <80 years) with HFrEF undergoing isolated CABG. Through propensity score matching, the study aimed to compare the incidence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs), as well as other clinical endpoints, between the two groups. Statistical analyses included chi-square, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U test, Cox regression, and logistic regression, aiming to identify significant differences in outcomes. Results: The study revealed no significant difference in the combined incidence of MACCEs between octogenarians and non-octogenarians (OR: 0.790, 95% CI: 0.174-3.576, p = 0.759). Mortality rates were similar across groups (7% each, p = 1.000), as were occurrences of postoperative myocardial infarction (2% each, p = 1.000) and stroke (3% total). Secondary outcomes like delirium (17% total, no significant age group difference, p = 0.755), acute kidney injury (18% total, p = 0.664), and the need for dialysis (14% total, p = 1.000) also showed no differences between age groups. Interestingly, non-octogenarians required more packed red blood cells during their stay (p = 0.008), while other postoperative care metrics, such as hospital and ICU length of stay and ventilation hours, were comparable across groups. Conclusion: This multicenter study highlights that CABG is a viable and safe surgical option for octogenarians with HFrEF, challenging prior assumptions about the elevated risks associated with performing this procedure in older patients. The absence of significant differences in the incidence of MACCEs and other postoperative complications across age groups emphasizes the importance of careful patient selection and perioperative management. These findings advocate for a more inclusive approach to surgical treatment for octogenarians with HFrEF, suggesting that age alone should not be a determinant for CABG eligibility. This study contributes critical insights into optimizing care for a high-risk demographic, indicating a need for tailored guidelines that accommodate the aging population with complex cardiac conditions.

Reduced Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases after Bariatric Surgery Based on the New PREVENT Equations

Background

We applied the novel Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease EVENTs (PREVENT) equations to evaluate cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) health and estimated CVD risk, including heart failure (HF), after bariatric surgery.

Methods

Among 7804 patients (20-79 years) undergoing bariatric surgery at Vanderbilt University Medical Center during 1999-2022, CVD risk factors at pre-surgery, 1-year, and 2-year post-surgery were extracted from electronic health records. The 10- and 30-year risks of total CVD, atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and HF were estimated for patients without a history of CVD or its subtypes at each time point, using the social deprivation index-enhanced PREVENT equations. Paired t-tests or McNemar tests were used to compare pre- with post-surgery CKM health and CVD risk. Two-sample t-tests were used to compare CVD risk reduction between patient subgroups defined by age, sex, race, operation type, weight loss, and history of diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia.

Results

CKM health was significantly improved after surgery with lower systolic blood pressure, non-high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL), and diabetes prevalence, but higher HDL and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The 10-year total CVD risk decreased from 6.51% at pre-surgery to 4.81% and 5.08% at 1- and 2-year post-surgery (relative reduction: 25.9% and 16.8%), respectively. Significant risk reductions were seen for all CVD subtypes (i.e., ASCVD, CHD, stroke, and HF), with the largest reduction for HF (relative reduction: 55.7% and 44.8% at 1- and 2-year post-surgery, respectively). Younger age, White race, >30% weight loss, diabetes history, and no dyslipidemia history were associated with greater HF risk reductions. Similar results were found for the 30-year risk estimates.

Conclusions

Bariatric surgery significantly improves CKM health and reduces estimated CVD risk, particularly HF, by 45-56% within 1-2 years post-surgery. HF risk reduction may vary by patient's demographics, weight loss, and disease history, which warrants further research.

Individualized Risk of CKD Progression among US Adults

Key Points

Background

CKD is currently defined using GFR or albuminuria. This is on the basis of the relative risk of mortality and kidney outcomes compared with a healthy population and does not consider an individual's absolute risk of CKD progression.

Methods

Using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 1999 to 2020, we characterized the individual-level absolute 3-year risk of ≥40% decline in eGFR (ml/min per 1.73 m2) or kidney failure (3-year risk) among US adults. We categorized the 3-year risk and considered ≥5% as high risk.

Results

Among 199.81 million US adults, 8.42 million (4%) had a 3-year risk ≥5%, including 1.04 million adults without CKD (eGFR ≥60 and albuminuria <30 mg/g). These high-risk adults without CKD as currently defined had risk factors including hypertension (98%), heart failure (72%), and diabetes (44%). A total of 15.51 million adults had CKD with preserved eGFR (eGFR ≥60 and albuminuria ≥30 mg/g)—3.73 million had a 3-year risk ≥5%, 41% of whom did not have diabetes and thus would not be screened for albuminuria using current screening recommendations. The 3-year risk of CKD progression was low (risk <5%) in 94% of the 5.66 million US adults with CKD stage G3a-A1 (eGFR 45 to <60 and albuminuria <30 mg/g).

Conclusions

Assessment of the individual's absolute risk of CKD progression allowed further risk stratification of patients with CKD and identified individuals without CKD, as currently defined, who were at high risk of CKD progression.

Podcast

This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/JASN/2024_06_18_ASN0000000000000377.mp3

Integrating decision modeling and machine learning to inform treatment stratification

There is increasing interest in moving away from "one size fits all (OSFA)" approaches toward stratifying treatment decisions. Understanding how expected effectiveness and cost-effectiveness varies with patient covariates is a key aspect of stratified decision making. Recently proposed machine learning (ML) methods can learn heterogeneity in outcomes without pre-specifying subgroups or functional forms, enabling the construction of decision rules ('policies') that map individual covariates into a treatment decision. However, these methods do not yet integrate ML estimates into a decision modeling framework in order to reflect long-term policy-relevant outcomes and synthesize information from multiple sources. In this paper, we propose a method to integrate ML and decision modeling, when individual patient data is available to estimate treatment-specific survival time. We also propose a novel implementation of policy tree algorithms to define subgroups using decision model output. We demonstrate these methods using the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial), comparing outcomes for "standard" and "intensive" blood pressure targets. We find that including ML into a decision model can impact the estimate of incremental net health benefit (INHB) for OSFA policies. We also find evidence that stratifying treatment using subgroups defined by a tree-based algorithm can increase the estimates of the INHB.

Number of Pregnancies and Risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Postmenopausal Women: A Cross-Sectional Study of NHANES from 1999 to 2018

Background: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) remains the most common cause of death in women. Pregnancy is an exposure unique to women leading to significant changes in maternal cardiovascular function. However, studies of the relationship between the number of pregnancies and ASCVD are rare. We aimed to clarify the association between the number of pregnancies and ASCVD. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we used publicly available data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1999 to 2018. The number of pregnancies was divided into 0 (reference), 1, 2-3, 4-5, or ≥6, to create more stable estimates. A multiple logistic regression approach was used to examine the correlation between pregnancy and ASCVD in women aged 45 years or older who reported no menstruation in the past 12 months due to menopause, as well as in those aged 55 years or older, encompassing various age groups. We also separately estimated the association between the exposure of pregnancy and individual components of ASCVD. Results: In this study, age-adjusted data showed that women with six or more pregnancies had a doubled risk (odds ratio [OR]: 2.07) of ASCVD. The risk remained elevated at 1.69 times in women with four to five pregnancies and further increased to 1.90 times in women with six or more pregnancies, after adjusting for social factors. Similar patterns were observed when considering reproductive health and cardiovascular risk factors. Across the full population, every model that accounted for these variables consistently indicated that with an increasing number of pregnancies, we observed higher ORs for ASCVD risk (all p values <0.05). Conclusions: A higher number of pregnancies was associated with a higher risk of ASCVD after menopause, especially among women aged 45-64 years. Moreover, this association is particularly significant in the risk of stroke, cardiovascular heart disease, and heart attack.

Principal component-based clinical aging clocks identify signatures of healthy aging and targets for clinical intervention

Clocks that measure biological age should predict all-cause mortality and give rise to actionable insights to promote healthy aging. Here we applied dimensionality reduction by principal component analysis to clinical data to generate a clinical aging clock (PCAge) identifying signatures (principal components) separating healthy and unhealthy aging trajectories. We found signatures of metabolic dysregulation, cardiac and renal dysfunction and inflammation that predict unsuccessful aging, and we demonstrate that these processes can be impacted using well-established drug interventions. Furthermore, we generated a streamlined aging clock (LinAge), based directly on PCAge, which maintains equivalent predictive power but relies on substantially fewer features. Finally, we demonstrate that our approach can be tailored to individual datasets, by re-training a custom clinical clock (CALinAge), for use in the Comprehensive Assessment of Long-term Effects of Reducing Intake of Energy (CALERIE) study of caloric restriction. Our analysis of CALERIE participants suggests that 2 years of mild caloric restriction significantly reduces biological age. Altogether, we demonstrate that this dimensionality reduction approach, through integrating different biological markers, can provide targets for preventative medicine and the promotion of healthy aging.

Enhancing stroke risk and prognostic timeframe assessment with deep learning and a broad range of retinal biomarkers

Stroke stands as a major global health issue, causing high death and disability rates and significant social and economic burdens. The effectiveness of existing stroke risk assessment methods is questionable due to their use of inconsistent and varying biomarkers, which may lead to unpredictable risk evaluations. This study introduces an automatic deep learning-based system for predicting stroke risk (both ischemic and hemorrhagic) and estimating the time frame of its occurrence, utilizing a comprehensive set of known retinal biomarkers from fundus images. Our system, tested on the UK Biobank and DRSSW datasets, achieved AUROC scores of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.79-0.85) and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.9-0.95), respectively. These results not only highlight our system's advantage over established benchmarks but also underscore the predictive power of retinal biomarkers in assessing stroke risk and the unique effectiveness of each biomarker. Additionally, the correlation between retinal biomarkers and cardiovascular diseases broadens the potential application of our system, making it a versatile tool for predicting a wide range of cardiovascular conditions.

Akira Endo: Father of Statins

There was an unprecedented increase in cardiovascular mortality during the 20th century, which ultimately led to a deeper understanding of cholesterol and its role in cardiovascular disease. Akira Endo is a medical innovator who sought to change the tide of this epidemic. He is often referred to as the "Father of Statins" because of his identification of the first 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG-CoA) inhibitor, which fostered a new era in cholesterol treatment. The offspring of this discovery - statin medications - changed the landscape of cardiovascular prevention and improved outcomes for millions of patients across the globe. Arika Endo used his prior research experience in biochemistry and fungi to create a new way to meet the objective of reducing cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. In this way, he should be recognized not only for this discovery of statins but as a role model for researchers at any stage of their careers.

Projected Impact of Nonpharmacologic Management of Stage 1 Hypertension Among Lower-Risk US Adults

BACKGROUND

The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure guideline classified 31 million US adults as having stage 1 hypertension and recommended clinicians provide counseling on behavioral change to the low-risk portion of this group. However, nationwide reductions in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated health care expenditures achievable by nonpharmacologic therapy remain unquantified.

METHODS

We simulated interventions on a target population of US adults aged 35 to 64 years, identified from the 2015-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, with low-risk stage 1 systolic hypertension: that is, untreated systolic blood pressure 130 to 139 mm Hg with diastolic BP <90 mm Hg; no history of CVD, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease; and a low 10-year risk of CVD. We used meta-analyses and trials to estimate the effects of population-level behavior modification on systolic blood pressure. We assessed the extent to which restricting intervention to those in regular contact with clinicians might prevent the delivery of nonpharmacologic therapy.

RESULTS

Controlling systolic blood pressure to <130 mm Hg among the 8.8 million low-risk US adults with stage 1 hypertension could prevent 26 100 CVD events, avoid 2900 deaths, and save $1.7 billion in total direct health care costs over 10 years. Adoption of the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension diet could prevent 28 000 CVD events. Other nonpharmacologic interventions could avert between 3800 and 19 500 CVD events. However, only 51% of men and 75% of women regularly interacted with clinicians for counseling opportunities.

CONCLUSIONS

Among low-risk adults with stage 1 hypertension, substantial benefits to cardiovascular health could be achieved through public policy that promotes the adoption of nonpharmacologic therapy.

Adoption of the PREVENT (Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease EVENTs) Risk Algorithm: Potential International Implications

Background

The PREVENT (Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs risk algorithm was developed to better reflect the impact of metabolic factors on cardiovascular risk.

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to compare the relative performance of PREVENT with standard comparator algorithms (Framingham risk score, pooled cohort equation, SCORE2 [Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation2]) for risk stratification emphasizing the implications of weighing chronic kidney disease.

Methods

A simulated cohort was created of males and females aged 40 to 75 years with and without other traditional risk factors and either normal estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR 90 or 60 ml/min/1.73 m2) or abnormal eGFR (45 or 30 ml/min/1.73 m2). The concordance and reclassification rates were calculated for each category of risk with emphasis on subjects characterized as moderate risk by the standard comparator algorithms.

Results

PREVENT demonstrated increased risk with progressive decreases in eGFR. When the standard comparator algorithms identified moderate risk, PREVENT was concordant in 6% to 88% of simulations. In simulations with normal eGFR, PREVENT identified a lower risk in 18% to 88% and a higher risk in 0% to 12% of simulations. Conversely, with abnormal eGFR, PREVENT identified lower risk in 0% to 26% and higher risk in 4% to 94% of simulations.

Conclusions

PREVENT substantially reclassifies risk and has the potential to alter prevention practice patterns. The tendency to assign a lower risk compared to standard algorithms when eGFR is normal may diminish implementation of preventive therapy. National health care systems need to monitor whether such changes improve overall public health.

The association between objectively-measured sedentary behavior patterns and predicted 10-year ASCVD risk

This study aims to investigated the association between sedentary behavior (SB) and predicted 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk and determine whether the associations differ by how the behavior is accumulated, in US middle-aged and older adults. Cross-sectional data were derived from national health and nutrition examination survey (NHANES) 2003-2006. Seven-day wearing of accelerometer was used to assess SB pattern, exported as total SB, bouts of 1-9, 10-29, 30-59 and ≥ 60 min SB. Predicted 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated using validated pooled cohort equations. Linear regression was used to estimate adjusted coefficients. A total of 2327 participants were enrolled with mean age of 56.9 and mean predicted 10-year ASCVD risk of 10.7%. We observed significant associations of total SB and its longer accumulated patterns with higher 10-year predicted ASCVD risk, in a linear fashion and independent of a list of covariates. A 30 min increment per day of total SB, bouts in 10-29, bouts in 30-59 and bouts in ≥ 60 min were associated with 0.14, 0.14, 0.23 and 0.12% higher multivariable-adjusted 10-year predicted ASCVD risk. There are significant associations of total SB as well as its longer accumulated patterns with higher 10-year predicted ASCVD risk, independent of a list of covariates and in a linear fashion. The result indicates that reducing total sedentary time and interrupting long duration of prolonged SB, could be meaningful to for public guideline to lessen the personal and public health burden of cardiovascular health.

Pitfalls in Developing Machine Learning Models for Predicting Cardiovascular Diseases: Challenge and Solutions

In recent years, there has been explosive development in artificial intelligence (AI), which has been widely applied in the health care field. As a typical AI technology, machine learning models have emerged with great potential in predicting cardiovascular diseases by leveraging large amounts of medical data for training and optimization, which are expected to play a crucial role in reducing the incidence and mortality rates of cardiovascular diseases. Although the field has become a research hot spot, there are still many pitfalls that researchers need to pay close attention to. These pitfalls may affect the predictive performance, credibility, reliability, and reproducibility of the studied models, ultimately reducing the value of the research and affecting the prospects for clinical application. Therefore, identifying and avoiding these pitfalls is a crucial task before implementing the research. However, there is currently a lack of a comprehensive summary on this topic. This viewpoint aims to analyze the existing problems in terms of data quality, data set characteristics, model design, and statistical methods, as well as clinical implications, and provide possible solutions to these problems, such as gathering objective data, improving training, repeating measurements, increasing sample size, preventing overfitting using statistical methods, using specific AI algorithms to address targeted issues, standardizing outcomes and evaluation criteria, and enhancing fairness and replicability, with the goal of offering reference and assistance to researchers, algorithm developers, policy makers, and clinical practitioners.

An exploratory analysis of the metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease risk calculations in veterans with spinal cord injury and disorders

OBJECTIVES

(1) To describe and compare cardiovascular and cardiometabolic disease risk scores using three existing risk calculators: Framingham Risk Score (FRS), American Heart Association (AHA) and Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score (MSSS) in Veterans with spinal cord injury and disorders (SCI/D); (2) To examine level of agreement between risk scores derived from three different risk scoring systems; and (3) To investigate whether the agreement among these methods is different for Veterans with Tetraplegia versus Paraplegia.

DESIGN

Retrospective chart review.

METHODS

Electronic medical records of 194 Veterans with SCI/D who were seen at the VAPAHCS SCI/D Center between August 2004 and June 2022 were reviewed. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores (FRS and AHA) along with a Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score (MSSS) were computed using web-based calculators.

RESULTS

Moderate agreement between CVD risk scores (FRS and AHA) was observed; however, the agreement was poor between MSSS and both AHA and FRS. No differences were observed between the paraplegia and tetraplegia cohorts. From the AHA risk score, more than half the study population was found to be at high risk while less than half was considered high risk from the FRS and MSSS scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the moderate association between AHA and FRS scores along with considerable variation in risk predictors, CVD risk prediction assessment tools should be interpreted cautiously in the SCI population. SCI-related clinical biomarkers and other clinically relevant risk factors should be taken into consideration to optimize risk estimation in persons with SCI/D.

External validation and comparison of six cardiovascular risk prediction models in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE)-Colombia study

AIMS

To external validate the SCORE2, AHA/ACC Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE), Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Non-Laboratory INTERHEART Risk Score (NL-IHRS), Globorisk-LAC, and WHO prediction models and compare their discrimination and calibration capacity.

METHODS

Validation in individuals aged 40-69 years with at least 10 years follow-up and without baseline use of statins or cardiovascular diseases from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology prospective cohort study (PURE)-Colombia. For discrimination, the C-statistic, and Receiver Operating Characteristic curves with the integrated area under the curve (AUCi) were used and compared. For calibration, the smoothed time-to-event method was used, choosing a recalibration factor based on the integrated calibration index (ICI). In the NL-IHRS, linear regressions were used.

RESULTS

In 3,802 participants (59.1% women), baseline risk ranged from 4.8% (SCORE2 women) to 55.7% (NL-IHRS). After a mean follow-up of 13.2 years, 234 events were reported (4.8 cases per 1000 person-years). The C-statistic ranged between 0.637 (0.601-0.672) in NL-IHRS and 0.767 (0.657-0.877) in AHA/ACC PCE. Discrimination was similar between AUCi. In women, higher overprediction was observed in the Globorisk-LAC (61%) and WHO (59%). In men, higher overprediction was observed in FRS (72%) and AHA/ACC PCE (71%). Overestimations were corrected after multiplying by a factor derived from the ICI.

CONCLUSIONS

Six prediction models had a similar discrimination capacity, supporting their use after multiplying by a correction factor. If blood tests are unavailable, NL-IHRS is a reasonable option. Our results suggest that these models could be used in other countries of Latin America after correcting the overestimations with a multiplying factor.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk and physical activity: the role of cardiac-specific biomarkers in the general population and athletes

The first part of this Inter-Society Document describes the mechanisms involved in the development of cardiovascular diseases, particularly arterial hypertension, in adults and the elderly. It will also examine how consistent physical exercise during adolescence and adulthood can help maintain blood pressure levels and prevent progression to symptomatic heart failure. The discussion will include experimental and clinical evidence on the use of specific exercise programs for preventing and controlling cardiovascular diseases in adults and the elderly. In the second part, the clinical relevance of cardiac-specific biomarkers in assessing cardiovascular risk in the general adult population will be examined, with a focus on individuals engaged in sports activities. This section will review recent studies that suggest a significant role of biomarkers in assessing cardiovascular risk, particularly the presence of cardiac damage, in athletes who participate in high-intensity sports. Finally, the document will discuss the potential of using cardiac-specific biomarkers to monitor the effectiveness of personalized physical activity programs (Adapted Physical Activity, APA). These programs are prescribed for specific situations, such as chronic diseases or physical disabilities, including cardiovascular diseases. The purposes of this Inter-Society Document are the following: 1) to discuss the close pathophysiological relationship between physical activity levels (ranging from sedentary behavior to competitive sports), age categories (from adolescence to elderly age), and the development of cardiovascular diseases; 2) to review in detail the experimental and clinical evidences supporting the role of cardiac biomarkers in identifying athletes and individuals of general population at higher cardiovascular risk; 3) to stimulate scientific societies and organizations to develop specific multicenter studies that may take into account the role of cardiac biomarkers in subjects who follow specific exercise programs in order to monitor their cardiovascular risk.

Statin prescriptions and progression of advanced fibrosis risk in primary care patients with MASLD

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the association of statins with progression to a high risk for advanced fibrosis in primary care patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).

DESIGN

This retrospective cohort study of electronic health record data included patients with MASLD and an initial low or indeterminate risk for advanced fibrosis, determined by Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) score (<2.67). Patients were followed from the index FIB-4 until the primary outcome of a high-risk FIB-4 (≥2.67) or the end of the study period. Prescription for a statin during follow-up was the primary exposure. We developed Cox regression models for the time to a high-risk FIB-4 score with statin therapy as the primary covariate and adjusting for baseline fibrosis risk, demographic and comorbidity variables.

RESULTS

The cohort of 1238 patients with MASLD was followed for a mean of 3.3 years, with 47% of patients receiving a prescription for a statin, and 18% of patients progressing to a high-risk FIB-4. In the adjusted Cox model with statin prescription as the primary exposure, statins were associated with a lower risk (HR 0.60; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.80) of progressing to a FIB-4≥2.67. In the adjusted Cox models with statin prescription intensity as the exposure, moderate (HR 0.60; 95% CI 0.42 to 0.84) and high intensity (HR 0.61; 95% CI 0.42 to 0.88) statins were associated with a lower risk of progressing to a high-risk FIB-4.

CONCLUSION

Statin prescriptions, and specifically moderate and high intensity statin prescriptions, demonstrate a protective association with fibrosis risk progression in primary care patients with MASLD.

A machine learning algorithm for stratification of risk of cardiovascular disease in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Steatotic liver disease (SLD) is associated with adverse cardiac events. Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) has emerged as a condition characterized by the abnormal accumulation of hepatic lipids that is closely linked to five metabolic disorders: overweight or obesity, impaired glucose regulation, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, and low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. This retrospective study aimed to stratify the risk of cardiac events in patients with MASLD.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with MASLD through ultrasonography were evaluated. We implemented a machine learning-based approach using a survival classification and regression tree (CART) model to stratify patients based on age, and the number of risk scores was investigated as a predictor of adverse outcomes in the derivation cohort. The primary outcomes were major adverse cardiac events (MACE) including cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and revascularization due to coronary artery disease.

RESULTS

Among 2,962 patients (median age, 62 years; men, 53.5 %), the distribution of risk factors was as follows: one (10.8 %), two (28.5 %), three (33.0 %), four (19.9 %), and five (7.8 %). Over a median follow-up period of 6.8 years, 170 (5.7 %) patients experienced MACE. In the derivation cohort of 2,073 patients, the CART model identified age ≥60 years old and risk factors ≥4 as significant predictors of MACE. These findings were corroborated in a validation cohort of 889 patients. Patients meeting both criteria exhibited the highest risk of MACE (log-rank test, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients aged ≥60 years old with risk factors ≥4 indicates at high risk of MACE in patients with MASLD. This risk stratification system provides a practical tool for identifying high-risk individuals in the MASLD population.

The Predictive Value of Aortic Calcification on Computed Tomography for Major Cardiovascular Events

As the prevalence of cardiovascular disease continues to increase, early identification of patients at high risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) using reliable diagnostic modalities is important. Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a minimally invasive percutaneous procedure used to replace the aortic valve with a bioprosthetic one, often without the need for surgery. Extra coronary calcification in the ascending and/or descending thoracic aorta, aortic arch, and abdominal aorta has recently been identified as a method to quantify the extent of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. However, its definitive role in the prediction of MACE remains unclear. We performed a comprehensive review to summarize the current literature on the diagnostic and predictive value of thoracic and abdominal aortic calcification, as quantified in computed tomography, for the association, risk stratification, and prediction of MACE and after TAVI procedures. Despite increasing evidence, the predictive role of thoracic calcification still remains unproven, with a need for carefully tailored studies to confirm these findings.

DXA Android-to-Gynoid Ratio and Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Age and BMI Propensity-Matched Early Postmenopausal Women

Background and Objectives: The literature suggests that physiological menopause (MP) seems linked with increased adiposity with a preference for intra-abdominal fat accumulation, greater than what can be attributed only by aging, which could magnify this period's increased cardiovascular risk. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed two age and body mass index (BMI) propensity-matched subgroups each formed of 90 clinically healthy, 40-60-year-old postmenopausal women, within the first 5 and 5-10 years of MP. The 10-year ASCVD risk was assessed using medical history, anthropometric data, and lipid profile blood tests. The android-to-gynoid (A/G) ratio was computed using Lunar osteodensitometry lumbar spine and hip scans. Results: The A/G ratio was significantly higher for the subgroup evaluated in years 5-10 of MP than in the first 5 years of MP, even after controlling for BMI (1.05 vs. 0.99, p = 0.005). While displaying a significant negative correlation with HDL cholesterol (r = 0.406), the A/G ratio also had positive correlations with systolic blood pressure (BP) values (r = 0.273), triglycerides (r = 0.367), and 10-year ASCVD risk (r = 0.277). After adjusting for smoking, hypertension treatment, and type 2 diabetes, the 10-year ASCVD risk became significantly different for women in the first 5 years (3.28%) compared to those in years 5-10 of MP (3.74%), p = 0.047. Conclusions: In women with similar age and BMI, the A/G ratio appears to vary based on the number of years since menopause onset and correlates with either independent cardiovascular risk parameters like BP, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol or with composite scores, such as 10-year ASCVD risk.

Associations of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores with cerebral small vessel disease: the PolyvasculaR Evaluation for Cognitive Impairment and vaScular Events (PRECISE) study

BACKGROUND

10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores were useful for predicting large vessel disease, but the relationships between them and cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) were unclear. Our study aimed to evaluate associations of 10-year ASCVD risk scores with CSVD and its magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers.

METHODS

Community-dwelling residents from the PolyvasculaR Evaluation for Cognitive Impairment and vaScular Events study were included in this cross-sectional study. At baseline, we collected data related to the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), pooled cohort equation (PCE), prediction for ASCVD risk in China (China-PAR) and Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation model 2 (SCORE2), and classified participants into low, moderate and high groups. Participants underwent brain MRI scans. We evaluated white matter hyperintensity (WMH), lacunes, cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) and enlarged perivascular spaces in basal ganglia (BG-EPVS) according to criteria of Wardlaw and Rothwell, and calculated total CSVD score and modified total CSVD score.

RESULTS

A total of 3063 participants were included, and 53.5% of them were female. A higher FRS was associated with higher total CSVD score (moderate vs. low: cOR 1.89, 95% CI 1.53-2.34; high vs. low: cOR 3.23, 95%CI 2.62-3.97), and the PCE, China-PAR or SCORE2 score was positively related to total CSVD score (P < 0.05). Moreover, higher 10-year ASCVD scores were associated with higher odds of WMH (P < 0.05), lacunes (P < 0.05), CMBs (P < 0.05) and BG-EPVS (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The 10-year ASCVD scores were positively associated with CSVD and its MRI markers. These scores provided a method of risk stratification in the population with CSVD.

Continuous glucose monitoring for glycaemic control and cardiovascular risk reduction in patients with type 2 diabetes not on insulin therapy: A clinical trial

AIM

To evaluate the impact of the Dexcom G6 continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) device on glycaemic control and cardiometabolic risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at high cardiovascular risk who are not on insulin therapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Adults with T2DM with glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) >7% and body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2 not using insulin were enrolled in a two-phase cross-over study. In phase 1, CGM data were blinded, and participants performed standard glucose self-monitoring. In phase 2, the CGM data were unblinded, and CGM, demographic and cardiovascular risk factor data were collected through 90 days of follow-up and compared using paired tests.

RESULTS

Forty-seven participants were included (44% women; 34% Black; mean age 63 years; BMI 37 kg/m2; HbA1c 8.4%; 10-year predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk 24.0%). CGM use was associated with a reduction in average glucose (184.0 to 147.2 mg/dl, p < .001), an increase in time in range (57.8 to 82.8%, p < .001) and a trend towards lower glucose variability (26.2 to 23.8%). There were significant reductions in HbA1c, BMI, triglycerides, blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes distress and 10-year predicted risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (p < .05 for all) and an increase in prescriptions for sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (36.2 to 83.0%) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (42.5 to 87.2%, p < .001 for both).

CONCLUSIONS

Dexcom G6 CGM was associated with improved glycaemic control and cardiometabolic risk in patients with T2DM who were not on insulin. CGM can be a safe and effective tool to improve diabetes management in patients at high risk for adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

Comparison of Four Predictive Scores for Cardiovascular Risk in Mexican People with HIV

Persons with HIV (PWH) face an increased risk of cardiovascular events due to immune activation, comorbidities, and certain antiretrovirals (ARVs). However, the current cardiovascular risk (CVR) scores are not specifically directed toward PWH. This study aimed to assess the agreement between different predictive CVR scores and explore their relationship with clinical and demographic data in Mexican PWH. A descriptive cross-sectional analysis was conducted in 200 PWH with a mean age of 42 years who were treated at a Mexican urban center from 2017 to 2018. The majority (83%) was on ARV treatment and 79.5% had undetectable viral loads (VLs). Moderate- to high-risk scores were infrequent, with Framingham Risk Score for Hard Coronary Heart Disease scores showing higher values, with very low concordance among all scores. Logistic regression analysis revealed significant associations between the CVR scores and the initial recorded VL, CD4 cell count, and elevated triglyceride levels. However, no associations were found with measures such as body mass index or abdominal circumference. Treatment with integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs), particularly first-generation inhibitors, showed strong associations with all predictive scores, notably ASCVD (odds ratio = 7.03, 95% confidence interval 1.67-29.64). The poor concordance among the CVR scores in PWH highlights the need for a specific score that considers comorbidities and ARV drugs. Despite the relatively young age of the participants, significant correlations were observed between INSTI use, initial VL, CD4 cell count, and triglyceride levels, which are factors not considered in the existing risk scores. Regardless of the actual value of the scores, screening for CVR in PWH is recommended.

Artificial Intelligence in Cardiovascular Disease Prevention: Is it Ready for Prime Time?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review evaluates how Artificial Intelligence (AI) enhances atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment, allows for opportunistic screening, and improves adherence to guidelines through the analysis of unstructured clinical data and patient-generated data. Additionally, it discusses strategies for integrating AI into clinical practice in preventive cardiology.

RECENT FINDINGS

AI models have shown superior performance in personalized ASCVD risk evaluations compared to traditional risk scores. These models now support automated detection of ASCVD risk markers, including coronary artery calcium (CAC), across various imaging modalities such as dedicated ECG-gated CT scans, chest X-rays, mammograms, coronary angiography, and non-gated chest CT scans. Moreover, large language model (LLM) pipelines are effective in identifying and addressing gaps and disparities in ASCVD preventive care, and can also enhance patient education. AI applications are proving invaluable in preventing and managing ASCVD and are primed for clinical use, provided they are implemented within well-regulated, iterative clinical pathways.

Modeling the Impact of Biomarker-Guided Versus ASCVD Risk-Guided Drug Treatment in US Adults With Stage 1 Hypertension: The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999 to 2004

BACKGROUND

Guidelines recommend antihypertensive medication for adults with both stage 1 hypertension (systolic blood pressure, 130-139 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure, 80-89 mm Hg) and 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk ≥10%. Cardiac biomarkers could facilitate a more targeted approach to the treatment of stage 1 hypertension.

METHODS

We studied 1999 to 2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey participants aged ≥20 years with untreated stage 1 hypertension without heart failure or ASCVD. We measured hs-cTnI (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I), hs-cTnT (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T) and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) in stored serum. We used the Pooled Cohort Equations to predict 10-year ASCVD risk. All participants had linked mortality follow-up through December 31, 2019.

RESULTS

Overall, 17.5% of US adults (32.2 million) had untreated stage 1 hypertension. Among these 32.2 million persons, 15.7% had ASCVD risk ≥10%, 5.6% had elevated hs-cTnI, 4.7% had elevated hs-cTnT, and 9.5% had elevated NT-proBNP. Among adults aged 65 to 79 years with untreated stage 1 hypertension, 80.5% had ASCVD risk ≥10%, 13.0% had elevated hs-cTnI, 15.2% had elevated hs-cTnT, and 29.4% had elevated NT-proBNP. Less than half of the adults aged ≥80 years with untreated stage 1 hypertension had elevated biomarkers. The cardiovascular disease mortality rates among all adults with untreated stage 1 hypertension and with either ASCVD risk ≥10%, elevated hs-cTnI, elevated hs-cTnT, or elevated NT-proBNP were 7.51, 7.74, 8.75, and 5.87 per 1000 person-years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiac biomarkers may be more selective for informing risk-based treatment decisions in stage 1 hypertension, particularly among adults aged ≥65 years.

Homocysteine modifies the association of coronary stenosis and HIV infection in an inner city African American population

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

People with HIV (PWH) whose disease is controlled on anti-retroviral regimens remain at an increased risk for coronary artery disease (CAD). Traditional cardiovascular risk factors do not fully explain the residual risk in PWH suggesting contributions from nontraditional factors. Homocysteine (Hcy) may be one of these as prior work in adults without HIV demonstrate that Hcy may impair endothelial function by decreasing the availability of nitric oxide, promoting the development of atherosclerosis. In addition, plasma Hcy levels are higher in PWH than in individuals living without HIV. The aim of this study was to investigate whether Hcy levels influence the association between HIV and coronary stenosis in an inner city African American population.

METHODS

African Americans from the Heart Study in Baltimore, with and without HIV, recruited from inner-city Baltimore between June 2004 and February 2015, were included in this analysis. Participants underwent coronary CT angiography to evaluate the presence of coronary stenosis, defined as luminal stenosis >10%. Hcy was measured from stored serum samples.

RESULTS

In this analysis, the median [IQR] age of the 664 participants was 56 [50-66] years; 68.1% were living with HIV and 43.1% were women. Elevated Hcy (>15 µmol/L) was more prevalent in those with coronary stenosis (23.3%, 95% CI: 18.4%-28.2%) than in those without coronary stenosis (13.1%, 95% CI: 9.7%-16.5%) (p = 0.0007), and HIV was associated with coronary stenosis in those participants with an elevated Hcy (Prevalence Ratio: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.04-3.64, p = 0.0038) and not in those with a Hcy ≤15 µmol/L (Prevalence Ratio: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.83-1.25, p = 0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest an association between elevated Hcy levels (>15 µmol/L) and the prevalence of coronary stenosis in PWH from this inner city African American population.

Lipoprotein(a) and Coronary Plaque in Asymptomatic Individuals: The Miami Heart Study at Baptist Health South Florida

BACKGROUND

Elevated levels of lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)) are independently associated with an increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. However, the mechanisms driving this association are poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the association between Lp(a) and coronary plaque characteristics in a contemporary US cohort without clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, undergoing coronary computed tomography angiography, the noninvasive gold standard for the assessment of coronary atherosclerosis.

METHODS

We used baseline data from the Miami Heart Study-a community-based, prospective cohort study-which included asymptomatic adults aged 40 to 65 years evaluated using coronary computed tomography angiography. Those taking any lipid-lowering therapies were excluded. Elevated Lp(a) was defined as ≥125 nmol/L. Outcomes included any plaque, coronary artery calcium score >0, maximal stenosis ≥50%, presence of any high-risk plaque feature (positive remodeling, spotty calcification, low-attenuation plaque, napkin ring), and the presence of ≥2 high-risk plaque features.

RESULTS

Among 1795 participants (median age, 52 years; 54.3% women; 49.6% Hispanic), 291 (16.2%) had Lp(a) ≥125 nmol/L. In unadjusted analyses, individuals with Lp(a) ≥125 nmol/L had a higher prevalence of all outcomes compared with Lp(a) <125 nmol/L, although differences were only statistically significant for the presence of any coronary plaque and ≥2 high-risk features. In multivariable models, elevated Lp(a) was independently associated with the presence of any coronary plaque (odds ratio, 1.40, [95% CI, 1.05-1.86]) and with ≥2 high-risk features (odds ratio, 3.94, [95% CI, 1.82-8.52]), although only 35 participants had this finding. Among participants with a coronary artery calcium score of 0 (n=1200), those with Lp(a) ≥125 nmol/L had a significantly higher percentage of any plaque compared with those with Lp(a) <125 nmol/L (24.2% versus 14.2%; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this contemporary analysis, elevated Lp(a) was independently associated with the presence of coronary plaque. Larger studies are needed to confirm the strong association observed with the presence of multiple high-risk coronary plaque features.