Estimating Longitudinal Risks and Benefits From Cardiovascular Preventive Therapies Among Medicare Patients: The Million Hearts Longitudinal ASCVD Risk Assessment Tool: A Special Report From the American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology

Projected Changes in Statin and Antihypertensive Therapy Eligibility With the AHA PREVENT Cardiovascular Risk Equations

Importance

Since 2013, the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) have recommended the pooled cohort equations (PCEs) for estimating the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). An AHA scientific advisory group recently developed the Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs (PREVENT) equations, which incorporated kidney measures, removed race as an input, and improved calibration in contemporary populations. PREVENT is known to produce ASCVD risk predictions that are lower than those produced by the PCEs, but the potential clinical implications have not been quantified.

Objective

To estimate the number of US adults who would experience changes in risk categorization, treatment eligibility, or clinical outcomes when applying PREVENT equations to existing ACC and AHA guidelines.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Nationally representative cross-sectional sample of 7765 US adults aged 30 to 79 years who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys of 2011 to March 2020, which had response rates ranging from 47% to 70%.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Differences in predicted 10-year ASCVD risk, ACC and AHA risk categorization, eligibility for statin or antihypertensive therapy, and projected occurrences of myocardial infarction or stroke.

Results

In a nationally representative sample of 7765 US adults aged 30 to 79 years (median age, 53 years; 51.3% women), it was estimated that using PREVENT equations would reclassify approximately half of US adults to lower ACC and AHA risk categories (53.0% [95% CI, 51.2%-54.8%]) and very few US adults to higher risk categories (0.41% [95% CI, 0.25%-0.62%]). The number of US adults receiving or recommended for preventive treatment would decrease by an estimated 14.3 million (95% CI, 12.6 million-15.9 million) for statin therapy and 2.62 million (95% CI, 2.02 million-3.21 million) for antihypertensive therapy. The study estimated that, over 10 years, these decreases in treatment eligibility could result in 107 000 additional occurrences of myocardial infarction or stroke. Eligibility changes would affect twice as many men as women and a greater proportion of Black adults than White adults.

Conclusion and Relevance

By assigning lower ASCVD risk predictions, application of the PREVENT equations to existing treatment thresholds could reduce eligibility for statin and antihypertensive therapy among 15.8 million US adults.

Sex Differences in the Relationship Between Self-Reporting of Snoring and Cardiovascular Risk:An Analysis of NHANES

Background

Identifying risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is critical for effective prevention and management. While classic CVD risk factors have been extensively studied, there is a scarcity of research on the association between snoring and CVD risk, particularly in the context of sex differences.

Methods

This study utilized data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) conducted between 2015 and 2020. Participants were initially categorized based on the severity of snoring or the presence of snoring.Within the snoring group, they were further classified by sex. Analysis was carried out using multivariate logistic regression.

Results

Our study included 12,681 participants aged 18 years or older. When compared to the non-snoring group, individuals in the moderate snoring group had a higher odds ratio (OR) of 1.418 (95% CI 1.083 to 1.857, p = 0.011), while those in the severe snoring group had a higher OR of 1.882 (95% CI 1.468 to 2.409, p < 0.001). In the snoring group, individuals were further categorized by gender: 4527 males and 4131 females. Importantly, male patients showed a higher OR for atrial fibrillation (4.945, 95% CI 1.187 to 20.598, p = 0.028) compared to females. Additionally, male patients had a higher OR for coronary heart disease (2.002, 95% CI 1.152 to 3.479, p = 0.014) compared to females.

Conclusion

Sex plays a significant role in the relationship between snoring and CVD risk. Males with snoring have a higher risk of developing CVD compared to females. In particular, male snorers are nearly five times more likely to develop atrial fibrillation and about twice as likely to experience coronary artery disease in comparison to female snorers. It is recommended that healthcare providers and public health officials prioritize cardiovascular risk assessments for male individuals who exhibit symptoms of snoring.

Medical calculators derived synthetic cohorts: a novel method for generating synthetic patient data

This study shows that we can use synthetic cohorts created from medical risk calculators to gain insights into how risk estimations, clinical reasoning, data-driven subgrouping, and the confidence in risk calculator scores are connected. When prediction variables aren't evenly distributed in these synthetic cohorts, they can be used to group similar cases together, revealing new insights about how cohorts behave. We also found that the confidence in predictions made by these calculators can vary depending on patient characteristics. This suggests that it might be beneficial to include a "normalized confidence" score in future versions of these calculators for healthcare professionals. We plan to explore this idea further in our upcoming research.

Stroke risk prediction models: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Prediction algorithms/models are viable methods for identifying individuals at high risk of stroke across diverse populations for timely intervention. However, evidence summarizing the performance of these models is limited. This study examined the performance and weaknesses of existing stroke risk-score-prediction models (SRSMs) and whether performance varied by population and region.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched for articles on SRSMs from the earliest records until February 2022. The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool was used to assess the quality of eligible articles. The performance of the SRSMs was assessed by meta-analyzing C-statistics (0 and 1) estimates from identified studies to determine the overall pooled C-statistics by fitting a linear restricted maximum likelihood in a random effect model.

RESULTS

Overall, 17 articles (cohort study = 15, nested case-control study = 2) comprising 739,134 stroke cases from 6,396,594 participants from diverse populations/regions (Asia; n = 8, United States; n = 3, and Europe and the United Kingdom; n = 6) were eligible for inclusion. The overall pooled c-statistics of SRSMs was 0.78 (95%CI: 0.75, 0.80; I2 = 99.9%), with most SRSMs developed using cohort studies; 0.78 (95%CI: 0.75, 0.80; I2 = 99.9%). The subgroup analyses by geographical region: Asia [0.81 (95%CI: 0.79, 0.83; I2 = 99.8%)], Europe and the United Kingdom [0.76 (95%CI: 0.69, 0.83; I2 = 99.9%)] and the United States only [0.75 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.78; I2 = 73.5%)] revealed relatively indifferent performances of SRSMs.

CONCLUSION

SRSM performance varied widely, and the pooled c-statistics of SRSMs suggested a fair predictive performance, with very few SRSMs validated in independent population group(s) from diverse world regions.

Making predictions under interventions: a case study from the PREDICT-CVD cohort in New Zealand primary care

Background

Most existing clinical prediction models do not allow predictions under interventions. Such predictions allow predicted risk under different proposed strategies to be compared and are therefore useful to support clinical decision making. We aimed to compare methodological approaches for predicting individual level cardiovascular risk under three interventions: smoking cessation, reducing blood pressure, and reducing cholesterol.

Methods

We used data from the PREDICT prospective cohort study in New Zealand to calculate cardiovascular risk in a primary care setting. We compared three strategies to estimate absolute risk under intervention: (a) conditioning on hypothetical interventions in non-causal models; (b) combining existing prediction models with causal effects estimated using observational causal inference methods; and (c) combining existing prediction models with causal effects reported in published literature.

Results

The median absolute cardiovascular risk among smokers was 3.9%; our approaches predicted that smoking cessation reduced this to a median between a non-causal estimate of 2.5% and a causal estimate of 2.8%, depending on estimation methods. For reducing blood pressure, the proposed approaches estimated a reduction of absolute risk from a median of 4.9% to a median between 3.2% and 4.5% (both derived from causal estimation). Reducing cholesterol was estimated to reduce median absolute risk from 3.1% to between 2.2% (non-causal estimate) and 2.8% (causal estimate).

Conclusions

Estimated absolute risk reductions based on non-causal methods were different to those based on causal methods, and there was substantial variation in estimates within the causal methods. Researchers wishing to estimate risk under intervention should be explicit about their causal modelling assumptions and conduct sensitivity analysis by considering a range of possible approaches.

Cardiovascular disease risk communication and prevention: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Knowledge of quantifiable cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk may improve health outcomes and trigger behavioural change in patients or clinicians. This review aimed to investigate the impact of CVD risk communication on patient-perceived CVD risk and changes in CVD risk factors.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, and PsycINFO databases were searched from inception to 6 June 2023, supplemented by citation analysis. Randomized trials that compared any CVD risk communication strategy versus usual care were included. Paired reviewers independently screened the identified records and extracted the data; disagreements were resolved by a third author. The primary outcome was the accuracy of risk perception. Secondary outcomes were clinician-reported changes in CVD risk, psychological responses, intention to modify lifestyle, and self-reported changes in risk factors and clinician prescribing of preventive medicines.

RESULTS

Sixty-two trials were included. Accuracy of risk perception was higher among intervention participants (odds ratio = 2.31, 95% confidence interval = 1.63 to 3.27). A statistically significant improvement in overall CVD risk scores was found at 6-12 months (mean difference = -0.27, 95% confidence interval = -0.45 to -0.09). For primary prevention, risk communication significantly increased self-reported dietary modification (odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval = 1.21 to 1.86) with no increase in intention or actual changes in smoking cessation or physical activity. A significant impact on patients' intention to start preventive medication was found for primary and secondary prevention, with changes at follow-up for the primary prevention group.

CONCLUSIONS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, communicating CVD risk information, regardless of the method, reduced the overall risk factors and enhanced patients' self-perceived risk. Communication of CVD risk to patients should be considered in routine consultations.

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events among adults with high predicted risk without established risk factors

Objective

Age is the strongest contributor to 10-year predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Some older adults have a predicted ASCVD risk ≥7.5 %, without established risk factors. We sought to compare ASCVD incidence among adults with predicted ASCVD risk ≥7.5 %, with and without established ASCVD risk factors, to adults with predicted risk <7.5 %.

Methods

We analyzed data from REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study participants, 45-79 years old, without ASCVD or diabetes, not taking statins and with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol 70-189 mg/dL. Participants were categorized into 3 groups based on their 10-year predicted ASCVD risk and presence of established risk factors: <7.5 %, ≥7.5 % with established risk factors and ≥7.5 % without established risk factors. Established risk factors included smoking, systolic blood pressure ≥130 mmHg or antihypertensive medication use, total cholesterol ≥200 mg/dL, or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol <50 mg/dL for women (<40 mg/dL for men). Participants were followed for ASCVD events.

Results

Among 11,115 participants, 911 incident ASCVD events occurred over a median of 11.1 years. ASCVD incidence rates were 3.6, 12.8, and 9.8 per 1,000 person-years for participants with predicted risk <7.5 %, predicted risk ≥7.5 % with established risk factors and predicted risk ≥7.5 % without established risk factors, respectively. Compared to adults with predicted risk <7.5 %, hazard ratios for incident ASCVD in participants with risk ≥7.5 % with and without established risk factors were 3.58 (95 %CI 3.03 - 4.21) and 2.72 (95 %CI 1.91-3.88), respectively.

Conclusions

Adults with a 10-year predicted ASCVD risk ≥7.5 % but without established risk factors had a high ASCVD incidence.

Novel Prediction Equations for Absolute Risk Assessment of Total Cardiovascular Disease Incorporating Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Health: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome is a novel construct recently defined by the American Heart Association in response to the high prevalence of metabolic and kidney disease. Epidemiological data demonstrate higher absolute risk of both atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) and heart failure as an individual progresses from CKM stage 0 to stage 3, but optimal strategies for risk assessment need to be refined. Absolute risk assessment with the goal to match type and intensity of interventions with predicted risk and expected treatment benefit remains the cornerstone of primary prevention. Given the growing number of therapies in our armamentarium that simultaneously address all 3 CKM axes, novel risk prediction equations are needed that incorporate predictors and outcomes relevant to the CKM context. This should also include social determinants of health, which are key upstream drivers of CVD, to more equitably estimate and address risk. This scientific statement summarizes the background, rationale, and clinical implications for the newly developed sex-specific, race-free risk equations: PREVENT (AHA Predicting Risk of CVD Events). The PREVENT equations enable 10- and 30-year risk estimates for total CVD (composite of atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure), include estimated glomerular filtration rate as a predictor, and adjust for competing risk of non-CVD death among adults 30 to 79 years of age. Additional models accommodate enhanced predictive utility with the addition of CKM factors when clinically indicated for measurement (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c) or social determinants of health (social deprivation index) when available. Approaches to implement risk-based prevention using PREVENT across various settings are discussed.

Prediction of lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease, by risk factors level: the ATTICA epidemiological cohort study (2002-2022)

PURPOSE

We aimed to predict lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

The sample consisted of 1988 participants with complete CVD data during the 20-year follow-up (50% men, 45 ± 14 years) of the ATTICA study. Lifetime risk for CVD was predicted at specific index ages (40, 50, and 60 years), based on the life-table method, with death free-of-CVD treated as a competing event.

RESULTS

718 participants experienced a fatal or nonfatal CVD event, corresponding to a crude CVD incidence of 36.1% (men: 40.2%, women: 32.1%, P-value < .001). Overall, women and men had similar lifetime CVD risk (P-value = .245); at index age of 40, the lifetime risk for CVD was 68% for men and 63% for women, with a progressive decline to 56% and 50% at the index age of 50, and to 55% for both men and women, at the index age of 60 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These results on lifetime risk for CVD can guide the allocation of resources to improve public health and preventive services, especially in ages below 50 years, in both men and women.

Preventative Imaging with Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) is the diagnostic modality of choice for patients with stable chest pain. In this review, we scrutinize the evidence on the use of CCTA for the screening of asymptomatic patients.

RECENT FINDINGS

Clinical evidence suggests that CCTA imaging enhances cardiovascular risk stratification and prompts the timely initiation of preventive treatment leading to reduced risk of major adverse coronary events. Visualization of coronary plaques by CCTA also helps patients to comply with preventive medications. The presence of non-obstructive plaques and total plaque burden are prognostic for cardiovascular events. High-risk plaque features and pericoronary fat attenuation index, enrich the prognostic output of CCTA on top of anatomical information by capturing information on plaque vulnerability and coronary inflammatory burden. Timely detection of atherosclerotic disease or coronary inflammation by CCTA can assist in the deployment of targeted preventive strategies and novel therapeutics to prevent cardiovascular disease.

Person-Centered Models for Cardiovascular Care: A Review of the Evidence: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death and disability in the United States and globally. Disease burden continues to escalate despite technological advances associated with improved life expectancy and quality of life. As a result, longer life is associated with multiple chronic cardiovascular conditions. Clinical guidelines provide recommendations without considering prevalent scenarios of multimorbidity and health system complexities that affect practical adoption. The diversity of personal preferences, cultures, and lifestyles that make up one's social and environmental context is often overlooked in ongoing care planning for symptom management and health behavior support, hindering adoption and compromising patient outcomes, particularly in groups at high risk. The purpose of this scientific statement was to describe the characteristics and reported outcomes in existing person-centered care delivery models for selected cardiovascular conditions. We conducted a scoping review using Ovid MEDLINE, Embase.com, Web of Science, CINAHL Complete, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials through Ovid, and ClinicalTrials.gov from 2010 to 2022. A range of study designs with a defined aim to systematically evaluate care delivery models for selected cardiovascular conditions were included. Models were selected on the basis of their stated use of evidence-based guidelines, clinical decision support tools, systematic evaluation processes, and inclusion of the patient's perspective in defining the plan of care. Findings reflected variation in methodological approach, outcome measures, and care processes used across models. Evidence to support optimal care delivery models remains limited by inconsistencies in approach, variation in reimbursement, and inability of health systems to meet the needs of patients with chronic, complex cardiovascular conditions.

Handlungsempfehlungen zur Risikominimierung beim Einsatz von Januskinase-Inhibitoren zur Therapie chronisch-entzündlicher Hauterkrankungen

Der Ausschuss für Risikobewertung (PRAC) der Europäischen Arzneimittelagentur (EMA) hat gemäß Artikel 20 der Verordnung (EG) Nr. 726/2004 die Sicherheit für Januskinase‐Inhibitoren für die Behandlung von Entzündungserkrankungen neu bewertet und von den bisherigen Hinweisen in den jeweiligen Fachinformationen der betreffenden Präparate abweichende Sicherheitsangaben formuliert. Diese beziehen sich arzneistoff‐ und indikationsübergreifend auf die Beachtung eines möglicherweise erhöhten Risikos für venöse thromboembolische oder schwere kardiovaskuläre Ereignisse, eine erhöhte Infektionsrate sowie eine Erhöhung der Prävalenz von Hautkrebs. Deshalb wird empfohlen, bei Patienten mit unabhängigen Risikofaktoren (Alter ab 65 Jahre, Raucher oder ehemalige Raucher, Patientinnen mit oraler Kontrazeption beziehungsweise Hormonersatztherapie sowie anderen Risikofaktoren) Januskinase‐Inhibitoren nur dann therapeutisch einzusetzen, wenn es keine geeigneten Behandlungsalternativen gibt. Um im klinischen Alltag eine pragmatische und sorgfältige Erfassung von Risikopatienten zu ermöglichen, wurde interdisziplinär eine Checkliste erarbeitet, die aus der Perspektive des Dermatologen als Arbeitsmittel geeignet ist.

Rate of Change in 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Its Implications for Primary Prevention

BACKGROUND

Contemporary cardiovascular primary prevention is based on the assessment of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, the clinical implications of temporal change in the 10-year ASCVD risk estimate (∆10-year ASCVD risk/year) are unknown.

METHODS

A total of 211 077 participants without established ASCVD and with repetitive 10-year ASCVD risk assessment at an interval of 4 to 5 years were selected from the Korean National Health Insurance Service data. The primary end point was a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, and all-cause death.

RESULTS

ASCVD event rates were proportional to the ∆10-year ASCVD risk/year regardless of the baseline 10-year ASCVD risk. Adjusted hazard ratio for ASCVD events per 1% increase in ∆10-year ASCVD risk/year was 1.53 (95% CI, 1.44-1.63), 1.24 (95% CI, 1.15-1.32), 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.23), and 1.05 (95% CI, 1.00-1.10) in those with a baseline 10-year ASCVD risk of <5%, 5% to 7.5%, 7.5% to 20%, and ≥20%, respectively. Appropriate control of risk factors, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure, body mass index, exercise habits, and smoking status, was associated with lower ASCVD event rates, whereas failure to control these risk factors resulted in higher ASCVD event rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The temporal change in 10-year ASCVD risk over a period of 4 to 5 years reflects success or failure in controlling major cardiovascular risk factors and indicates the risk of future ASCVD events. The ∆10-year ASCVD risk/year can be used as an indicator of primary prevention and guide the application of preventive measures.

Recommendations for risk minimization when using Janus kinase inhibitors for the treatment of chronic inflammatory skin diseases

In accordance with article 20 of Regulation (EC) No 726/2004, the Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has re-evaluated the safety of Janus kinase inhibitors for the treatment of inflammatory diseases and formulated safety information deviating from the previous indications in the respective summary of product characteristics of the products concerned. These refer to the consideration of a possibly increased risk of venous thromboembolic or severe cardiovascular events, an increased infection rate and an increase in the prevalence of skin cancer across drugs and indications. Therefore, in patients with independent risk factors (age 65 years and older, smokers or former smokers, patients with oral contraception or hormone replacement therapy and other risk factors), it is recommended to use Janus kinase inhibitors therapeutically only if there are no suitable treatment alternatives. To facilitate a pragmatic and thorough detection of high-risk patients in everyday clinical practice, an interdisciplinary checklist was developed that is suitable as a working tool from the perspective of the dermatologist.

Exploring sex disparities in cardiovascular disease risk factors using principal component analysis and latent class analysis techniques

BACKGROUND

This study used machine learning techniques to evaluate cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVD) and the relationship between sex and these risk factors. The objective was pursued in the context of CVD being a major global cause of death and the need for accurate identification of risk factors for timely diagnosis and improved patient outcomes. The researchers conducted a literature review to address previous studies' limitations in using machine learning to assess CVD risk factors.

METHODS

This study analyzed data from 1024 patients to identify the significant CVD risk factors based on sex. The data comprising 13 features, such as demographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors, were obtained from the UCI repository and preprocessed to eliminate missing information. The analysis was performed using principal component analysis (PCA) and latent class analysis (LCA) to determine the major CVD risk factors and to identify any homogeneous subgroups between male and female patients. Data analysis was performed using XLSTAT Software. This software provides a comprehensive suite of tools for Data Analysis, Machine Learning, and Statistical Solutions for MS Excel.

RESULTS

This study showed significant sex differences in CVD risk factors. 8 out of 13 risk factors affecting male and female patients found that males and females share 4 of the eight risk factors. Identified latent profiles of CVD patients, suggesting the presence of subgroups among CVD patients. These findings provide valuable insights into the impact of sex differences on CVD risk factors. Moreover, they have important implications for healthcare professionals, who can use this information to develop individualized prevention and treatment plans. The results highlight the need for further research to elucidate these disparities better and develop more effective CVD prevention measures.

CONCLUSIONS

The study explored the sex differences in the CVD risk factors and the presence of subgroups among CVD patients using ML techniques. The results revealed sex-specific differences in risk factors and the existence of subgroups among CVD patients, thus providing essential insights for personalized prevention and treatment plans. Hence, further research is necessary to understand these disparities better and improve CVD prevention.

(Poly)phenol intake, plant-rich dietary patterns and cardiometabolic health: a cross-sectional study

Diet is an important modifiable risk factor for cardiometabolic diseases. Plant foods contain a complex mixture of nutrients and bioactive compounds such as (poly)phenols. Plant-rich dietary patterns have been associated with reduced cardiometabolic risk in epidemiological studies. However, studies have not fully considered (poly)phenols as a mediating factor in the relationship. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted in 525 healthy participants, aged 41.6 ± 18.3 years. Volunteers completed the validated European Prospective Investigation into Diet and Cancer (EPIC) Norfolk Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ). We investigated the associations between plant-rich dietary patterns, (poly)phenol intake, and cardiometabolic health. Positive associations were found between (poly)phenols and higher adherence to dietary scores, except for the unhealthy Plant-based Diet Index (uPDI), which was negatively associated with (poly)phenol intake. Correlations were significant for healthy PDI (hPDI), with positive associations with proanthocyanidins (r = 0.39, p < 0.01) and flavonols (r = 0.37, p < 0.01). Among dietary scores, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) showed negative associations with diastolic blood pressure (DBP), total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (Non-HDL-C) (stdBeta -0.12 to -0.10, p < 0.05). The Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay (MIND) score was positively associated with flow-mediated dilation (FMD, stdBeta = 0.10, p = 0.02) and negatively associated with the 10-year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score (stdBeta = -0.12, p = 0.01). Higher intake of flavonoids, flavan-3-ols, flavan-3-ol monomers, theaflavins, and hydroxybenzoic acids (stdBeta: -0.31 to -0.29, p = 0.02) also showed a negative association with a 10-year ASCVD risk score. Flavanones showed significant associations with cardiometabolic markers such as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (stdBeta = -0.11, p = 0.04), TC (stdBeta = -0.13, p = 0.03), and the Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA) of beta cell function (%B) (stdBeta = 0.18, p = 0.04). Flavanone intake was identified as a potential partial mediator in the negative association between TC and plant-rich dietary scores DASH, Original Mediterranean diet scores (O-MED), PDI, and hPDI (proportion mediated = 0.01% to 0.07%, p < 0.05). Higher (poly)phenol intake, particularly flavanone intake, is associated with higher adherence to plant-rich dietary patterns and favourable biomarkers of cardiometabolic risk indicating (poly)phenols may be mediating factors in the beneficial effects.

Prediction of Visual Acuity in Patients With Microbial Keratitis

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to predict visual acuity (VA) 90 days after presentation for patients with microbial keratitis (MK) from data at the initial clinical ophthalmic encounter.

METHODS

Patients with MK were identified in the electronic health record between August 2012 and February 2021. Random forest (RF) models were used to predict 90-day VA < 20/40 [visual impairment (VI)]. Predictors evaluated included age, sex, initial VA, and information documented in notes at presentation. Model diagnostics are reported with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for area under the curve (AUC), misclassification rate, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV).

RESULTS

One thousand seven hundred ninety-one patients were identified. The presenting logMAR VA was on average 0.86 (Snellen equivalent and standard deviation = 20/144 ± 12.6 lines) in the affected or worse eye, and 43.6% with VI. VI at 90-day follow-up was present in the affected eye or worse eye for 26.9% of patients. The RF model for predicting 90-day VI had an AUC of 95% (CI: 93%-97%) and a misclassification rate of 9% (7%-12%). The percent sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 86% (80%-91%), 92% (89%-95%), 81% (74%-86%), and 95% (92%-97%), respectively. Older age, worse presenting VA, and more mentions of "penetrating keratoplasty" and "bandage contact lens" were associated with increased probability of 90-day VI, whereas more mentions of "quiet" were associated with decreased probability of 90-day VI.

CONCLUSIONS

RF modeling yielded good sensitivity and specificity to predict VI at 90 days which could guide clinicians about the risk of poor vision outcomes for patients with MK.

Cumulative exposure to elevated blood pressure better predicts cardiovascular disease risk in rural Chinese adults

Background

Traditional risk estimations for cardiovascular disease (CVD) are based on current blood pressure (BP); however, whether cumulative exposure to elevated BP among rural individuals has additional prognostic value is unclear. We aimed to validate the association of cumulative BP with CVD occurrence and assess the prognostic value of cumulative BP in CVD risk prediction.

Methods

A total of 13,057 participants who underwent three examinations from 2004 to 2010 were included in this rural epidemiological study and followed up until 2017. Cumulative BP was defined as the sum of the product of the average BP values between consecutive examinations and the time interval for each pair of successive tests prior to the follow-up period. CVD incidents that occurred during the follow-up period were noted and verified by qualified researchers. We used multivariate Cox models to assess the association of cumulative BP with CVD risk. The receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed to determine the predictive differentiation of single baseline BP measurements and cumulative BP values for CVD outcomes.

Results

During the follow-up period, 1,312 participants underwent CVD incidents. We found that cumulative systolic BP (hazard ratio = 1.334, 95% confidence interval: 1.245, 1.430) and cumulative diastolic BP (hazard ratio = 1.253, 95% confidence interval: 1.168, 1.343) were associated with CVD incidence above and beyond that of the current BP. These stronger associations persisted for stroke, myocardial infarction, and CVD mortality. The area under the curve for the model increased significantly (p < 0.001) from 0.735 (0.720, 0.750) to 0.742 (0.728, 0.757) when integrating cumulative systolic BP instead of baseline systolic BP.

Conclusion

Cumulative BP in Chinese rural adults showed a stronger association with CVD incidence than that of current BP. Furthermore, cumulative BP slightly improved the predictive performance for CVD. Our findings underline the incremental predictive value of cumulative BP in CVD risk assessment among Chinese rural adults.

Risk assessment indicators and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity to predict atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is used for predicting the severity of vascular damage and prognosis of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in people with hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This correlation study aimed to compare the baPWV with other risk indicators for identification of subclinical vascular disease for primary prevention and to determine the clinical utility of baPWV-guided therapy in improving prognosis in high-risk subjects. We included 4881 subjects who underwent voluntary health examination at Mackay Memorial Hospital, Taiwan between 2014 and 2019. Participants were categorized into the low-risk (<5%), borderline-risk (5%-7.4%), intermediate-risk (7.5%-19.9%), and high-risk (≥20%) groups based on the 10-year risk for ASCVD. The predictive risk criteria, that is, the metabolic syndrome score, Framingham Risk Score, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and baPWV were compared among these groups. The chief cause of induced responses and the relationships between parameters were identified using principal component analysis. The participants' ages, body mass index, systolic, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting glucose, hemoglobin A1c, creatinine, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio, metabolic syndrome, Framingham Risk Score, and age-related arterial stiffness (vascular age) increased significantly from the low-risk to high-risk groups (P < .001). The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate decreased significantly from the low- to high-risk groups (P < .001). The predicted vascular age and actual age differed significantly between the intermediate- and high-risk groups (P < .001). High-density lipoprotein levels plummeted significantly among the 4 groups (P < .001). The right and left baPWV and ankle brachial index differed significantly among the 4 groups (all P < .001) and increased from the low-risk to high-risk groups (P < .001). Carotid Doppler ultrasonography revealed a significant increase in plaque formation (23.5%, 35.4%, 46.3%, and 61.5% for the low-, borderline-, intermediate, and high-risk groups, respectively). The total explanatory variation was 61.9% for 2 principal variation factors (baPWV, 36.8% and creatinine, 25.1%). The vascular age predicted using baPWV greatly exceeded the chronological age. Plaque formation was significant even in the low-risk group, and its frequency increased with the predicted ASCVD risk. Risk indicators and baPWV are useful predictors of ASCVD, which in conjunction with conventional pharmacotherapy could be useful for primary prevention of plaque formation in subjects with cardiovascular comorbidities.

The Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Attributable to Modifiable Risk Factors and Cost-effectiveness Analysis of IraPEN Program in the General Population of Iran

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) contribute to over 30% of deaths worldwide and more than 40% in Iran in 2019. Establishing a cost-effective program to control cardiovascular diseases is essential for any country. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the primary prevention program (IraPEN) for cardiovascular diseases in Iran. Methods: This methodological cost-effectiveness study was performed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the IraPEN program by modifying cardiovascular disease risk factors in the IraPEN program. We calculated the economic burden of CVDs risk factors from 2016 to 2018 in 4 pilot cities in Iran. We observed 160,833 individuals for 2 years to measure the economic burden of cardiovascular diseases. To estimate the variation of the 1-year risk of cardiovascular illnesses, and according to the study's goal of estimating the 1-year risk of cardiovascular disease, only 36,631 people remained in the study who compiled the program's instruction for 1 year. Propensity scores were used to consider the effect of those excluded from the study. The 10-year risk of CVDs was estimated by the laboratory tests and information registered in the population's electronic records. To evaluate the effect of the IraPEN program in reducing the risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, major CVD risk factors were studied by the World Health Organization formula (whocvdrisk) and cardiovascular diseases risk scoring. We used the 10-year risk for CVDs to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis in terms of cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) saved. Results: According to estimates of the 1-year relative risk reduction in cardiovascular disease, the results showed that relative risk reductions for men and women were 0.74 and 0.65, respectively. Hence, about 174,088 annual acute CVDs events reduction would be expected; this decrease is predicted for men (93,034) more than women (81,054) for the total population of Iran. The total cost of treatment for people with cardiovascular diseases was 165 USD for coronary heart disease or stroke per individual. All risk factors were further reduced in women than men, except for smoking. DALYs averted was 1057.66 for samples who were in the study for a year (36631 samples). The total cost per averted DALY was 47.16. Conclusion: Estimating the costs associated with disease prevention programs is more important in developing countries. The most cost-effective strategies have been preventive therapies that target high-risk individuals. PEN risk reduction programs for primary prevention such as Ira-pen are highly cost-effective and efficient in low- and middle-income countries.

Achieving the Latest American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology Therapeutic Goals for Hypertension With Combination Therapy and Its Effects on Blood Pressure and Central Hemodynamic Parameters

The present United States and European treatment guidelines recommend that antihypertensive therapy be initiated with a combination of agents from different classes to facilitate the achievement of control of blood pressure (BP). This prospective, randomized, open-label study was conducted at 3 tertiary hospitals in India to evaluate the effects of combination therapy with an angiotensin receptor blocker and a calcium antagonist on office BP and central hemodynamic parameters in patients with untreated hypertension or uncontrolled BP (>130/>80 mm Hg) during treatment with antihypertensive monotherapy. Patients were randomized to treatment with telmisartan 40 mg/day + amlodipine 5 mg/day or telmisartan 40 mg/day + cilnidipine 10 mg/day. Change from baseline to 8 weeks of treatment was assessed for seated office BP, ambulatory BP monitoring, and seated central hemodynamics (central BP, aortic augmentation index, central aortic augmentation pressure, and pulse wave velocity). A total of 94 of 96 enrolled patients completed the study. From baseline to 8 weeks a significant decrease was observed in both telmisartan + amlodipine and telmisartan + cilnidipine groups for mean BP (148.0 ± 12.80 to 124.0 ± 10.4 and 144.5 ± 10.2 to 123.0 ± 10.0 mm Hg, respectively; both p <0.001); in only telmisartan + amlodipine group for mean central aortic systolic and diastolic BP (131.1 ± 19.1 to 119.7 ± 14.9 mm Hg [p <0.001] and 93.3 ± 12.0 to 89.2 ± 14.6 mm Hg [p = 0.0008], respectively) and for central aortic pulse wave velocity (7.6 ± 1.4 to 7.2 ± 1.3 m/s, p = 0.0011); in only telmisartan + cilnidipine group for aortic augmentation index (27.5 ± 14.6 to 22.3 ± 12.2; p = 0.0178). Heart rate was unchanged in both treatment groups. Combination therapy with an angiotensin receptor blocker and a calcium antagonist effectively reduced BP to below the new <130/80 mm Hg target and had favorable effects on central hemodynamics.

Digital Health in Primordial and Primary Stroke Prevention: A Systematic Review

The stroke burden continues to grow across the globe, disproportionally affecting developing countries. This burden cannot be effectively halted and reversed without effective and widely implemented primordial and primary stroke prevention measures, including those on the individual level. The unprecedented growth of smartphone and other digital technologies with digital solutions are now being used in almost every area of health, offering a unique opportunity to improve primordial and primary stroke prevention on the individual level. However, there are several issues that need to be considered to advance development and use this important digital strategy for primordial and primary stroke prevention. Using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines we provide a systematic review of the current knowledge, challenges, and opportunities of digital health in primordial and primary stroke prevention.

Inclusion of Smoking Data in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Estimation

Importance

Former heavy smokers (ie, those with ≥20 pack-years of smoking) may have higher atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk than never smokers for up to 16 years after smoking cessation. However, the 2013 pooled cohort equations (PCE) do not account for pack-years of smoking and only consider current vs noncurrent smoking status without distinguishing former smokers from never smokers.

Objective

To assess the predictive utility of smoking history when added to the PCE using data from 18 400 person examinations among Framingham offspring participants.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from the Framingham Heart Study, a community-based cohort. Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort participants attending their first examination (1971-1975) who were followed-up through December 2016 were included.

Exposures

Self-reported current/former/never smoking status, pack-years smoked, and years since quitting.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incident ASCVD (myocardial infarction, fatal/nonfatal ischemic stroke, coronary heart disease death).

Results

Of 3908 patients, there were 358 and 197 events among 1895 men and 2013 women, respectively, with a mean (SD) age of 55 (9.5) years. Ever smoking prevalence was high (6474 men [77%] and 7760 women [78%]), as were median pack-years (men: 39; women: 32 overall person examinations). Four sex-specific ASCVD risk prediction models were built using pooled-repeated Cox proportional hazards regression. The PCEs were was fit in this sample with continuous predictors on their natural scale (ie, not logarithmically transformed) as well as polynomials accounting for nonlinearity and then cumulatively adjusted for former smoking, pack-years, and years since quitting. Models were compared via change in C statistic, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI[>0]), and relative integrated discrimination improvement (rIDI). Including former smoking status, pack-years, and years since quitting had significant but modest NRI(>0) and rIDI values compared with the PCE with continuous variables on their natural scale in both sexes (men: NRI[>0] = 0.23; rIDI = 0.19; women: NRI[>0] = 0.34, rIDI = 0.11; change in C statistic = 0.01 for both).

Conclusions and Relevance

Former smoking, pack-years, and years since quitting significantly improved ASCVD risk prediction in this sample. The Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort is largely composed of non-Hispanic White participants of European ancestry. If results are validated in cohorts of race and ethnicity groups other than White, these variables could be considered for inclusion in future ASCVD risk prediction models.

Reduction in total and major cause-specific mortality from tobacco smoking cessation: a pooled analysis of 16 population-based cohort studies in Asia

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the time course of mortality reduction following smoking cessation in Asians who have smoking behaviours distinct from their Western counterparts. We evaluated the level of reduction in all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and lung cancer mortality by years since quitting smoking, in Asia.

METHODS

Using Cox regression, we analysed individual participant data (n = 709 151) from 16 prospective cohorts conducted in China, Japan, Korea/Singapore, and India/Bangladesh, separately by cohorts. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were combined using a random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 108 287 deaths were ascertained-35 658 from CVD and 7546 from lung cancer. Among Asian men, a dose-response relationship of risk reduction in deaths from all causes, CVD and lung cancer was observed with an increase in years after smoking cessation. Compared with never smokers, however, all-cause and CVD mortality among former smokers remained elevated 10-14 years after quitting [multivariable-adjusted HR (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.25 (1.13-1.37) and 1.20 (1.02-1.41), respectively]. Lung cancer mortality stayed almost 2-fold higher than among never smokers 15-19 years after smoking cessation [1.97 (1.41-2.73)], particularly among former heavy smokers [2.62 (1.71-4.00)]. Women who quitted for ≥5 years retained a significantly elevated mortality from all causes, CVD and lung cancer. Overall patterns of the cessation-mortality associations were similar across countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that adverse effects of tobacco smoking persist for an extended time period, even for more than two decades, which is beyond the time windows defined in current clinical guidelines for risk assessment of lung cancer and CVD.

Primary stroke prevention worldwide: translating evidence into action

Stroke is the second leading cause of death and the third leading cause of disability worldwide and its burden is increasing rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries, many of which are unable to face the challenges it imposes. In this Health Policy paper on primary stroke prevention, we provide an overview of the current situation regarding primary prevention services, estimate the cost of stroke and stroke prevention, and identify deficiencies in existing guidelines and gaps in primary prevention. We also offer a set of pragmatic solutions for implementation of primary stroke prevention, with an emphasis on the role of governments and population-wide strategies, including task-shifting and sharing and health system re-engineering. Implementation of primary stroke prevention involves patients, health professionals, funders, policy makers, implementation partners, and the entire population along the life course.

Smoking Cessation

Tobacco smoking is the leading cause of preventable death in the United States, and its harms are well established. Physicians have more evidence-based resources than ever before to effectively treat smoking, including new uses and combinations of U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved pharmacotherapies and expanded community programs. In addition, electronic nicotine delivery systems are potential treatment tools, but their safety and efficacy need to be established. Finally, high-priority groups, such as persons with cancer diagnoses or hospitalized patients, may benefit from particular attention to their tobacco use.

Combined Associations of Changes in Noncombustible Nicotine or Tobacco Product and Combustible Cigarette Use Habits With Subsequent Short-Term Cardiovascular Disease Risk Among South Korean Men: A Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The associations of changes in noncombustible nicotine or tobacco product (NNTP) and combustible cigarette (CC) use habits with subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk are still unclear.

METHODS

The study population consisted of 5 159 538 adult men who underwent health screening examinations during both the first (2014-2015) and second (2018) health screening periods from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database. All participants were divided into continual CC-only smokers, CC and NNTP users, recent (<5 years) CC quitters without NNTP use, recent CC quitters with NNTP use, long-term (≥5 years) CC quitters without NNTP use, long-term CC quitters with NNTP use, and never smokers. Propensity score matching analysis was conducted to further compare CVD risk among CC quitters according to NNTP use. Starting from the second health screening date, participants were followed up until the date of CVD event, death, or December 31, 2019, whichever came earliest. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine the adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for CVD risk according to changes in NNTP and CC smoking habits.

RESULTS

Compared with continual CC-only smokers, CC and NNTP users (aHR, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.79-0.88]) and initial CC smokers who quit CCs and switched to NNTP use only (recent CC quitters with NNTP use, aHR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.78-0.84]) had lower risk for CVD. After propensity score matching, recent CC quitters with NNTP use (aHR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.01-1.70]) had higher risk for CVD than recent CC quitters without NNTP use. Similarly, compared with long-term CC quitters without NNTP use, long-term CC quitters with NNTP use (aHR, 1.70 [95% CI, 1.07-2.72]) had higher CVD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Switching to NNTP use among initial CC smokers was associated with lower CVD risk than continued CC smoking. On CC cessation, NNTP use was associated with higher CVD risk than CC quitting without NNTPs. Compared with CC smokers who quit without NNTP use, CC quitters who use NNTPs may be at higher future CVD risk.

Health Behavior Change Programs in Primary Care and Community Practices for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention and Risk Factor Management Among Midlife and Older Adults: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

Cardiovascular disease predominates as the leading health burden among middle-aged and older American adults, but progress in improving cardiovascular health remains slow. Comprehensive, evidenced-based behavioral counseling interventions in primary care are a recommended first-line approach for promoting healthy behaviors and preventing poor cardiovascular disease outcomes in adults with cardiovascular risk factors. Assisting patients to adopt and achieve their health promotion goals and arranging follow-up support are critical tenets of the 5A Model for behavior counseling in primary care. These 2 steps in behavior counseling are considered essential to effectively promote meaningful and lasting behavior change for primary cardiovascular disease prevention. However, adoption and implementation of behavioral counseling interventions in clinical settings can be challenging. The purpose of this scientific statement from the American Heart Association is to guide primary health care professional efforts to offer or refer patients for behavioral counseling, beyond what can be done during brief and infrequent office visits. This scientific statement presents evidence of effective behavioral intervention programs that are feasible for adoption in primary care settings for cardiovascular disease prevention and risk management in middle-aged and older adults. Furthermore, examples are provided of resources available to facilitate the widespread adoption and implementation of behavioral intervention programs in primary care or community-based settings and practical approaches to appropriately engage and refer patients to these programs. In addition, current national models that influence translation of evidence-based behavioral counseling in primary care and community settings are described. Finally, this scientific statement highlights opportunities to enhance the delivery of equitable and preventive care that prioritizes effective behavioral counseling of patients with varying levels of cardiovascular disease risk.

Rationale and design of the application value of Beijing Vascular Health Stratification (BVHS): predictive value of combined assessment of vascular structure and function for cardiovascular events in general Chinese population

Background

Vascular endothelial dysfunction, arteriosclerosis and atherosclerotic plaque are well-known risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Studies on vascular health markers have been well-established, however, there is still a lack of related research on combined vascular structure and function indicators.

Method

Beijing vascular health stratification (BVHS) is an evaluation system aiming at vascular health, combined the endothelial function, arteriosclerosis, atherosclerotic plaque and vascular lumen stenosis to comprehensively assess the vascular health and grade it. This study will explore the predictive value of the combined evaluation of vascular structure and function for cardiovascular events and assess the predictive value of BVHS and compare it with the existing risk assessment systems. A total of 1500 subjects will be enrolled into the prospective cohort study from a community and will be followed up for at least 3 years from July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2023. Subjects aged 40 or above, without coronary heart disease, stroke or peripheral artery disease, with written informed consent will be included; subjects with end-stage hepatorenal diseases (uremia, renal failure, cirrhosis, liver failure), mental disorders or cognitive disorders, with any other factors that the researcher thinks are not suitable for the study will be excluded. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors will be collected as adjusted confounders.

Discussion

BVHS is a potential and scientific vascular health evaluation system. The study will be the first to grade vascular health by combing various vascular indicators and explore the prediction value and compare with other risk prediction system in general Chinese population.

Trial registration: The trial is registered on http://www.chictr.org.cn/ (ChiCTR2000034085).

Daylight savings time transitions and risk of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: An interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Many studies have reported increases in the risk of acute cardiovascular events following daylight savings time (DST) transitions. We sought to investigate the effect of DST transition on the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA).

METHODS

Between January 2000 and December 2020, we performed an interrupted time series analysis of the daily number of OHCA cases of medical aetiology from the Victorian Ambulance Cardiac Arrest Registry. The effect of DST transition on OHCA incidence was estimated using negative binomial models, adjusted for temporal trends, population growth, and public holidays.

RESULTS

A total of 89,409 adult OHCA of medical aetiology were included. Following the spring DST transition (i.e. shorter day), there was an immediate 13% (IRR 1.13, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.25; p = 0.02) increased risk of OHCA on the day of transition (Sunday) and the cumulative risk of OHCA remained higher over the first 2 days (IRR 1.17, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.34; p = 0.03) compared to non-transitional days. Following the autumn DST transition (i.e. longer day), there was a significant lagged effect on the Tuesday with a 12% (IRR 0.88, 95% CI: 0.77, 0.99; p = 0.04) reduced risk of OHCA. The cumulative effect following the autumn DST transition was also significant, with a 30% (IRR 0.70, 95% CI: 0.51, 0.96; p = 0.03) reduction in the incidence of OHCA by the end of the transitional week.

CONCLUSION

We observed both harmful and protective effects from DST transitions on the risk of OHCA. Strategies to reduce this risk in vulnerable populations should be considered.

Association between change in cardiovascular risk scores and future cardiovascular disease: analyses of data from the Whitehall II longitudinal, prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Evaluation of cardiovascular disease risk in primary care, which is recommended every 5 years in middle-aged and older adults (typical age range 40-75 years), is based on risk scores, such as the European Society of Cardiology Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) algorithms. This evaluation currently uses only the most recent risk factor assessment. We aimed to examine whether 5-year changes in SCORE and ASCVD risk scores are associated with future cardiovascular disease risk.

METHODS

We analysed data from the Whitehall II longitudinal, prospective cohort study for individuals with no history of stroke, myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft, percutaneous coronary intervention, definite angina, heart failure, or peripheral artery disease. Participants underwent clinical examinations in 5-year intervals between Aug 7, 1991, and Dec 6, 2016, and were followed up for incident cardiovascular disease until Oct 2, 2019. Levels of, and 5-year changes in, cardiovascular disease risk were assessed using the SCORE and ASCVD risk scores and were analysed as predictors of cardiovascular disease. Harrell's C index, continuous net reclassification improvement, the Akaike information criterion, and calibration analysis were used to assess whether incorporating change in risk scores into a model including only a single risk score assessment improved the predictive performance. We assessed the levels of, and 5-year changes in, SCORE and ASCVD risk scores as predictors of cardiovascular disease and disease-free life-years using Cox proportional hazards and flexible parametric survival models.

FINDINGS

7574 participants (5233 [69·1%] men, 2341 [30·9%] women) aged 40-75 years were included in analyses of risk score change between April 24, 1997, and Oct 2, 2019. During a mean follow-up of 18·7 years (SD 5·5), 1441 (19·0%; 1042 [72·3%] men and 399 [27·7%] women) participants developed cardiovascular disease. Adding 5-year change in risk score to a model that included only a single risk score assessment improved model performance according to Harrell's C index (from 0·685 to 0·690, change 0·004 [95% CI 0·000 to 0·008] for SCORE; from 0·699 to 0·700, change 0·001 [0·000 to 0·003] for ASCVD), the Akaike information criterion (from 17 255 to 17 200, change -57 [95% CI -97 to -13] for SCORE; from 14 739 to 14 729, change -10 [-28 to 7] for ASCVD), and the continuous net reclassification index (0·353 [95% CI 0·234 to 0·447] for SCORE; 0·232 [0·030 to 0·344] for ASCVD). Both favourable and unfavourable changes in SCORE and ASCVD were associated with cardiovascular disease risk and disease-free life-years. The associations were seen in both sexes and all age groups up to the age of 75 years. At the age of 45 years, each 2-unit improvement in risk scores was associated with an additional 1·3 life-years (95% CI 0·4 to 2·2) free of cardiovascular disease for SCORE and an additional 0·9 life-years (95% CI 0·5 to 1·3) for ASCVD. At age 65 years, this same improvement was associated with an additional 0·4 life-years (95% CI 0·0 to 0·7) free of cardiovascular disease for SCORE and 0·3 life-years (95% CI 0·1 to 0·5) for ASCVD. These models were developed into an interactive calculator, which enables estimation of the number of cardiovascular disease-free life-years for an individual as a function of two risk score measurements.

INTERPRETATION

Changes in the SCORE and ASCVD risk scores over time inform cardiovascular disease risk prediction beyond a single risk score assessment. Repeat data might allow more accurate cardiovascular risk stratification and strengthen the evidence base for decisions on preventive interventions.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and US National Institute on Aging.

Effect of the Million Hearts Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction Model on Initiating and Intensifying Medications: A Prespecified Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

The Million Hearts Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Risk Reduction Model pays provider organizations for measuring and reducing Medicare patients' cardiovascular risk.

Objective

To assess whether the model increases the initiation or intensification of antihypertensive medications or statins among patients with blood pressure or low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels above guideline thresholds for treatment intensification.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prespecified secondary analysis of a cluster-randomized, pragmatic trial included primary care and cardiology practices, health care centers, and hospital-based outpatient departments across the US. Participants included Medicare patients who were enrolled into the model in 2017 by participating organizations and who were at high risk and at medium risk of a myocardial infarction or stroke in 10 years. Patient outcomes were analyzed for 1 year postenrollment (through December 2018) using an intent-to-treat design. Analysis began November 2019.

Interventions

US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services paid organizations for risk stratifying Medicare patients and reducing CVD risk among high-risk patients through discussing risk scores, developing individualized risk reduction plans, and following up with patients twice yearly.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Initiating or intensifying statin or antihypertensive therapy within 1 year of enrollment, measured in Medicare Part D claims, and LDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure levels approximately 1 year after enrollment, measured in usual care and reported to Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services via a data registry (data complete for 51% of high-risk enrollees). The study's primary outcome (incidence of first-time myocardial infarction and stroke) is not reported because the trial is ongoing.

Results

A total of 330 primary care and cardiology practices, health care centers, and hospital-based outpatient departments and 125 436 Medicare patients were included in this analysis. High-risk patients in the intervention group had a mean (SD) age of 74 (4.1), 15 213 (63%) were male, 21 657 (90%) were receiving antihypertensive medication at baseline, and 16 558 (69%) were receiving statins. Almost all (21 791 [91%]) high-risk intervention group patients had above-threshold systolic blood pressure level (>130 mm Hg), LDL cholesterol level (>70 mg/dL), or both. Patients in the intervention group with these risk factors were more likely than control patients (8127 [37.3%] vs 4753 [32.4%]; adjusted difference in percentage points, 4.8; 95% CI, 2.9-6.7; P < .001) to initiate or intensify statins or antihypertensive medication. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services did not pay for CVD risk reduction for medium-risk enrollees, but initiation or intensification rates for these enrollees were also higher in the intervention vs control groups (12 668 [27.9%] vs 7544 [24.8%]; adjusted difference in percentage points, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.9-4.3; P < .001). Among high-risk enrollees with clinical data approximately 1 year after enrollment, LDL cholesterol level was slightly lower in the intervention vs control groups (mean [SD], 89 [31.8] vs 91 [32.1] mg/dL; adjusted difference in percentage points, -1.8; 95% CI, -2.9 to -0.6; P = .002), as was systolic blood pressure (mean [SD], 133 [15.7] vs 135 [16.4] mm Hg; adjusted difference in percentage points, -1.7; 95% CI, -2.8 to -0.6; P = .003).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, a pay-for-performance model led to modest increases in the use of CVD medications in a range of organizations, despite high medication use at baseline.

Smoking Cessation and Coronary Artery Calcification in CKD

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Smoking is associated with vascular calcification and a higher risk of cardiovascular disease. In this study, we investigated the association of smoking dose and cessation with coronary artery calcification (CAC) in patients with CKD.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

From a nationwide, prospective cohort of Korean patients with CKD, 1914 participants were included. Prevalent CAC was defined as an Agatston score >0, using computed tomography. CAC progression was defined as ≥30%/yr increase in Agatston score at the 4-year follow-up examination in patients with baseline CAC.

RESULTS

Prevalent CAC was observed in 952 (50%) patients. Compared with never smokers, former smokers had a similar prevalence ratio for CAC, but current smokers had a 1.25-fold higher prevalence ratio (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.10 to 1.42). Among former smokers, a lower smoking load of <10 pack-years (prevalence ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.90) and longer duration of smoking cessation (prevalence ratio for 10 to <20 years, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.98: prevalence ratio for ≥20 years, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.96) were associated with lower risk of prevalent CAC compared with current smoking. The prevalence ratios did not differ between never smoking and long-term cessation. However, short-term cessation with heavy smoking load was associated with a higher risk of prevalent CAC (prevalence ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.40) compared with never smoking. CAC progression was observed in 111 (33%) patients with baseline CAC. Compared with never smokers, former smokers showed a similar risk of CAC progression, but current smokers had a higher risk (relative risk, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.30 to 2.86).

CONCLUSIONS

In CKD, former smoking with a lower smoking load and long-term cessation were associated with a lower risk of prevalent CAC than current smoking. CAC progression was more pronounced in current smokers.

Use of Preventive Aspirin Among Older US Adults With and Without Diabetes

IMPORTANCE

The net benefit of aspirin for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), particularly primary prevention, remains debated in people with and without diabetes. Recent studies suggest that the benefits of preventive aspirin may be outweighed by the potential for harm in older adults; therefore, it is important to monitor current aspirin use in order to minimize risk for future harm in the oldest segment of the population.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence of preventive aspirin use in older US adults with and without diabetes for both primary and secondary prevention by age, sex, and CVD risk category.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional analysis used nationally representative data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2011 to 2018. A total of 7103 individuals 60 years or older with and without diabetes completed a questionnaire on preventive aspirin use. Statistical analyses were performed from July 1, 2019, to April 1, 2021.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Preventive aspirin use was defined as participants' self-reported use of low-dose aspirin therapy based on their physician's advice or their own decision.

RESULTS

A total of 7103 individuals (mean [SD] age, 69.6 [0.1] years; 45.2% men; 75.8% White participants) were evaluated. Overall, 61.7% of older US adults with diabetes vs 42.2% without diabetes used aspirin. Among people with diabetes, in multivariable logistic models adjusting for race, sex, education, CVD risk category, and body mass index, the likelihood of aspirin use in older vs younger age categories (reference: 60-69 years) did not differ. Among people without diabetes, aspirin use was significantly greater in older age categories vs the reference (model 3, 70-79 years, odds ratio [OR], 1.50; 95% CI, 1.23-1.83; model 3, ≥80 years, OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.24-2.04). An estimated 9.9 million US adults 70 years or older with or without diabetes reported taking aspirin for primary prevention. The likelihood of aspirin use for primary prevention in those at high vs low risk for CVD did not differ among older adults with diabetes (model 3, OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 0.65-4.39) but was significantly higher in those without diabetes (model 3, OR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.63-3.71). Women vs men with diabetes were less likely to be using aspirin for primary prevention (model 3, OR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.48-0.83).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cross-sectional study found that preventive aspirin use was higher among older adults with diabetes than in those without diabetes. Results suggest that 9.9 million older US adults who previously took aspirin for primary prevention would not be recommended for its continued use, particularly among those with diabetes.

Do statins reduce mortality in older people? Findings from a longitudinal study using primary care records

Objective

Assess whether statins reduce mortality in the general population aged 60 years and above.

Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting

Primary care practices contributing to The Health Improvement Network database, England and Wales, 1990–2017.

Participants

Cohort who turned age 60 between 1990 and 2000 with no previous cardiovascular disease or statin prescription and followed up until 2017.

Results

Current statin prescription was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality from age 65 years onward, with greater reductions seen at older ages. The adjusted HRs of mortality associated with statin prescription at ages 65, 70, 75, 80 and 85 years were 0.76 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.81), 0.71 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.75), 0.68 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.72), 0.63 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.73) and 0.54 (95% CI 0.33 to 0.92), respectively. The adjusted HRs did not vary by sex or cardiac risk.

Conclusions

Using regularly updated clinical information on sequential treatment decisions in older people, mortality predictions were updated every 6 months until age 85 years in a combined primary and secondary prevention population. The consistent mortality reduction of statins from age 65 years onward supports their use where clinically indicated at age 75 and older, where there has been particular uncertainty of the benefits.

Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Following Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in developed countries, with worsening pandemics of type 2 diabetes mellitus and obesity as major cardiovascular (CV) risk factors. Clinical trials of nonsurgical obesity treatments have not shown benefits in CVD, although recent diabetes trials have demonstrated major CV benefits. In many retrospective and prospective cohort studies, however, metabolic (bariatric) surgery is associated with substantial and reproducible CVD benefits. Despite a lack of prospective, randomized clinical trials, data suggest metabolic surgery may be the most effective modality for CVD risk reduction, likely through weight loss and weight loss-independent mechanisms.

Effects of Message Framing and Time Discounting on Health Communication for Optimum Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke Prevention (EMT-OCSP): a protocol for a pragmatic, multicentre, observer-blinded, 12-month randomised controlled study

INTRODUCTION

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke often fails due to poor adherence among patients to evidence-based prevention recommendations. The proper formatting of messages portraying CVD and stroke risks and interventional benefits may promote individuals' perception and motivation, adherence to healthy plans and eventual success in achieving risk control. The main objective of this study is to determine whether risk and intervention communication strategies (gain-framed vs loss-framed and long-term vs short-term contexts) and potential interaction thereof have different effects on the optimisation of adherence to clinical preventive management for the endpoint of CVD risk reduction among subjects with at least one CVD risk factor.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This trial is designed as a 2×2 factorial, observer-blinded multicentre randomised controlled study with four parallel groups. Trial participants are aged 45-80 years and have at least one CVD risk factor. Based on sample size calculations for primary outcome, we plan to enrol 15 000 participants. Data collection will occur at baseline, 6 months and 1 year after randomisation. The primary outcomes are changes in the estimated 10-year CVD risk, estimated lifetime CVD risk and estimated CVD-free life expectancy from baseline to the 1-year follow-up.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study received approval from the Ethical Committee of West China Hospital, Sichuan University and will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04450888.

Cardiovascular involvement after liver transplantation: role of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis

Patients submitted to liver transplantation (LT) are exposed to high risk of cardiovascular (CV) complications which are the main determinants of both short-term and long-term morbidity and mortality in LT. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a very frequent condition in general population and is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) which represents the first cause of death of these patients. NAFLD is predicted to become the first indication to LT and nowadays is also frequently detected in patients submitted to LT for other indications. Thus, the risk of CVD in patients submitted to LT is forecasted to increase in the next years. In this review the extent of CV involvement in patients submitted to LT and the role of NAFLD, either recurring after transplantation or as de novo presentation, in increasing CV risk is analysed. The risk of developing metabolic alterations, including diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia and weight gain, all manifestations of metabolic syndrome, occurring in the first months after LT, is depicted. The different presentations of cardiac involvement, represented by early atherosclerosis, coronary artery disease, heart failure and arrhythmias in patients with NAFLD submitted to LT is described. In addition, the tools to detect cardiac alterations either before or after LT is reported providing the possibility for an early diagnosis of CVD and an early therapy able to reduce morbidity and mortality for these diseases. The need for long-term concerted multidisciplinary activity with dietary counseling and exercise combined with drug treatment of all manifestations of metabolic syndrome is emphasized.

Statistical analysis plan for management of hypertension and multiple risk factors to enhance cardiovascular health in Singapore: the SingHypertension pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease (O'Lone E, Viecelli AK, Craig JC, Tong A, Sautenet B, Herrington WG, et al., Am J Kidney Dis 76(1):109-20, 2020) remains the leading cause of death in Singapore. Uncontrolled hypertension confers the highest attributable risk of CVD and remains a significant public health issue with sub-optimal blood pressure (BP) control rates. The aim of the trial is to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a multicomponent intervention (MCI) versus usual care on lowering BP among adults with uncontrolled hypertension visiting primary care clinics in Singapore. This article describes the statistical analysis plan for the primary and secondary objectives related to intervention effectiveness.

METHODS

The study is a cluster randomized trial enrolling 1000 participants with uncontrolled hypertension aged ≥ 40 years from eight primary care clinics in Singapore. The unit of randomization is the clinic, with eight clusters (clinics) randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either MCI or usual care. All participants will be assessed at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months with measurements of systolic and diastolic BP, antihypertensive and statin medication use, medication adherence, physical activity level, anthropometric parameters, smoking status, and dietary habits. The primary objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of MCI versus usual care on mean SBP at the 2-year follow-up. The primary outcome is SBP at 24 months. SBP at baseline, 12, and 24 months will be modeled at the subject level using a likelihood-based, linear mixed-effects model repeated measures (MMRM) analysis with treatment group and follow-up as fixed effects, random cluster (clinic) effects, Gaussian error distribution, and adjustment to degrees of freedom using the Satterthwaite approximation. Secondary outcomes will be analyzed using a similar modeling approach incorporating generalized techniques appropriate for the type of outcome.

DISCUSSION

The trial will allow us to determine whether the MCI has an impact on BP and cardiovascular risk factors over a 2-year follow-up period and inform recommendations for health planners in scaling up these strategies for the benefit of society at large. A pre-specified and pre-published statistical analysis plan mitigates reporting bias and data driven approaches.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02972619 . Registered on 23 November 2016.

Cardiovascular Health Trajectories From Childhood Through Middle Age and Their Association With Subclinical Atherosclerosis

Importance

Cross-sectional measures of cardiovascular health (CVH) have been associated with cardiovascular disease in older age, but little is known about longitudinal trajectories in CVH and their association with subclinical atherosclerosis in middle age.

Objectives

To model long-term patterns in CVH starting in childhood and to assess their association with subclinical atherosclerosis in middle age.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from 5 prospective cardiovascular cohort studies from the United States and Finland from 1973 to 2015. A total of 9388 participants aged 8 to 55 years had at least 3 examinations and were eligible for this study. Statistical analysis was performed from December 1, 2015, to June 1, 2019.

Exposures

Clinical CVH factors (body mass index, total cholesterol level, blood pressure, and glucose level) were classified as ideal, intermediate, or poor, and were summed as a clinical CVH score. Group-based latent class modeling identified trajectories in this score over time.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) was measured for participants in 3 cohorts, and high cIMT was defined as a value at or above the 90th percentile. The association between CVH trajectory and cIMT was modeled using both linear and logistic regression adjusted for demographics, baseline health behaviors, and baseline (or proximal) CVH score.

Results

Among 9388 participants (5146 [55%] female; 6228 [66%] white; baseline mean [SD] age, 17.5 [7.5] years), 5 distinct trajectory groups were identified: high-late decline (1518 participants [16%]), high-moderate decline (2403 [26%]), high-early decline (3066 [32%]), intermediate-late decline (1475 [16%]), and intermediate-early decline (926 [10%]). The high-late decline group had significantly lower adjusted cIMT vs other trajectory groups (high-late decline: 0.64 mm [95% CI, 0.63-0.65 mm] vs intermediate-early decline: 0.72 mm [95% CI, 0.69-0.75 mm] when adjusted for demographics and baseline smoking, diet, and physical activity; P < .01). The intermediate-early declining group had higher odds of high cIMT (odds ratio, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3-4.5) compared with the high-late decline group, even after adjustment for baseline or proximal CVH score.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, CVH declined from childhood into adulthood. Promoting and preserving ideal CVH from early life onward may be associated with reduced CVD risk later in life.

The quest for cardiovascular disease risk prediction models in patients with nondialysis chronic kidney disease

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, traditional CVD risk prediction equations do not work well in patients with CKD, and inclusion of kidney disease metrics such as albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate have a modest to no benefit in improving prediction.

RECENT FINDINGS

As CKD progresses, the strength of traditional CVD risk factors in predicting clinical outcomes weakens. A pooled cohort equation used for CVD risk prediction is a useful tool for guiding clinicians on management of patients with CVD risk, but these equations do not calibrate well in patients with CKD, although a number of studies have developed modifications of the traditional equations to improve risk prediction. The reason for the poor calibration may be related to the fact that as CKD progresses, associations of traditional risk factors such as BMI, lipids and blood pressure with CVD outcomes are attenuated or reverse, and other risk factors may become more important.

SUMMARY

Large national cohorts such as the US Veteran cohort with many patients with evolving CKD may be useful resources for the developing CVD prediction models; however, additional considerations are needed for the unique composition of patients receiving care in these healthcare systems, including those with multiple comorbidities, as well as mental health issues, homelessness, posttraumatic stress disorders, frailty, malnutrition and polypharmacy. Machine learning over conventional risk prediction models may be better suited to handle the complexity needed for these CVD prediction models.

Association of Cumulative Systolic Blood Pressure With Long-Term Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Healthy Longevity: Findings From the Lifetime Risk Pooling Project Cohorts

Hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but previous studies have mostly been limited to a single exam, a single cohort, a short follow-up period, or a limited number of outcomes. This study aimed to assess the association of 10-year cumulative systolic blood pressure (BP) in middle age with long-term risk of any CVD, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, all-cause mortality, and healthy longevity. Individuals (11 502) from 5 racially/ethnically diverse US community-based cohorts were included in this study once they met all the inclusion criteria: ≥10 year of observation in the included cohort, aged 45 to 60 years, free of CVD, and had ≥3 visits with BP exams over the preceding 10 years. For each participant, systolic BP level was predicted for each year of the 10-year prior inclusion, based on the available exams (median of 4.0; spread over, 9.1 [range, 7.2-10] years). Lower 10-year cumulative systolic BP was associated with 4.1 years longer survival and 5.4 years later onset of CVD, resulting in living longer life with a shorter period with morbidity. Models adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors, and index systolic BP demonstrated associations of 10-year cumulative systolic BP (per 130 mm Hg×year change, the threshold for stage-1 hypertension) with CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.28 [95% CI, 1.20-1.36]), coronary heart disease (HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.19-1.40]), stroke (HR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.20-1.47]), heart failure (HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.02-1.23]), and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.14-1.29]). These findings emphasize the importance of 10-year cumulative systolic BP as a risk factor to CVD, above and beyond current systolic BP.

Low Levels of Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Endothelial Function in Subjects without Lipid-Lowering Therapy

An elevation of serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels has been associated with endothelial dysfunction in statin naïve subjects. However, there is no information on endothelial function in subjects with extremely low levels of LDL-C. The purpose of the present study was to determine the relationship of LDL-C levels, especially low levels of LDL-C, with endothelial function. Endothelial function assessed by flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD) measurement and LDL-C levels were evaluated in 7120 subjects without lipid-lowering therapy. We divided the subjects into five groups by LDL-C levels: <70 mg/dL, 70-99 mg/dL, 100-119 md/dL, 120-139 mg/dL, and ≥140 mg/dL. FMD values were significantly smaller in subjects with LDL-C levels of ≥140 mg/dL than in those with LDL-C levels of 70-99 mg/dL and 100-119 mg/dL (p < 0.001 and p = 0.004, respectively). The FMD values in the LDL-C of <70 mg/dL group were not significantly different from those in the other groups. To evaluate the relationship of extremely low LDL-C levels with endothelial function, we divided the subjects with LDL-C of <70 mg/dL into those with LDL-C levels of <50 mg/dL and 50-69 mg/dL. FMD values were similar in the LDL-C <50 mg/dL group and ≥50 mg/dL group in the propensity score-matched population (p = 0.570). A significant benefit was not found in subjects with low LDL-C levels from the aspect of endothelial function.

Prediction of individual life-years gained without cardiovascular events from lipid, blood pressure, glucose, and aspirin treatment based on data of more than 500 000 patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus

AIMS

Although group-level effectiveness of lipid, blood pressure, glucose, and aspirin treatment for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been proven by trials, important differences in absolute effectiveness exist between individuals. We aim to develop and validate a prediction tool for individualizing lifelong CVD prevention in people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) predicting life-years gained without myocardial infarction or stroke.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We developed and validated the Diabetes Lifetime-perspective prediction (DIAL) model, consisting of two complementary competing risk adjusted Cox proportional hazards functions using data from people with T2DM registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry (n = 389 366). Competing outcomes were (i) CVD events (vascular mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) and (ii) non-vascular mortality. Predictors were age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, haemoglobin A1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non- high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria, T2DM duration, insulin treatment, and history of CVD. External validation was performed using data from the ADVANCE, ACCORD, ASCOT and ALLHAT-LLT-trials, the SMART and EPIC-NL cohorts, and the Scottish diabetes register (total n = 197 785). Predicted and observed CVD-free survival showed good agreement in all validation sets. C-statistics for prediction of CVD were 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.84) and 0.64-0.65 for internal and external validation, respectively. We provide an interactive calculator at www.U-Prevent.com that combines model predictions with relative treatment effects from trials to predict individual benefit from preventive treatment.

CONCLUSION

Cardiovascular disease-free life expectancy and effects of lifelong prevention in terms of CVD-free life-years gained can be estimated for people with T2DM using readily available clinical characteristics. Predictions of individual-level treatment effects facilitate translation of trial results to individual patients.

Progression of Subclinical Vascular Damage in People Living With HIV Is Not Predicted by Current Cardiovascular Risk Scores: A Prospective 3-Year Study

BACKGROUND

People living with HIV (PLWH) are at high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Traditional CVD risk scores do not accurately reflect their CVD risk. Noninvasive subclinical vascular damage (SVD) biomarkers are valid surrogates of CVD and able to stratify CVD risk.

SETTING

We tested whether 4 widely applied CVD risk scores [Framingham (FRS), Atherosclerotic CVD, Data Collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs Study (D:A:D), and Greek-specific European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk scores] are associated with or detect the presence, incidence, and progression of arteriosclerosis, atheromatosis, and arterial hypertrophy in PLWH and uninfected individuals.

METHODS

We prospectively examined (at baseline and 3-year follow-up) 10 different arterial sites applying 5 different noninvasive vascular biomarkers and measured all 4 CVD risk scores at baseline.

RESULTS

In both PLWH (n = 138) and uninfected (n = 664) individuals, the CVD risk scores (except the ESC) performed differently but reasonably well in identifying the presence of SVD, but all scores failed to predict the incidence/progression of overall SVD. The most clinically useful biomarkers (carotid plaque/atheromatosis) revealed that in PLWH, only the FRS was able to stratify the progression (11% of the low-risk, 33.3% of the medium-risk, and 0% of the high-risk group).

CONCLUSIONS

This extensive vascular phenotyping study demonstrated the clear need to incorporate vascular imaging in CVD risk stratification, in addition to designing more accurate HIV-specific CVD risk models. The use of FRS would further enable treatment optimization and CVD prevention strategies in PLWH at medium CVD risk because one-third of carotid atheromatosis progresses within 3 years.

Relationships between Smoking Status, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, and Lipoproteins in a Large Japanese Population

Aims: Smoking is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), a leading cause of death and disability. Other CVD risk factors include age, gender, hypertension, diabetes, increased low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). Our goal was to assess relationships between smoking status and CVD risk factors, with a focus on direct LDL-C, HDL-C, triglycerides (TG) and small dense LDL-C (sdLDL-C).

Methods: A total of 34,497 Japanese men and women, mean age 51 years, had their CVD risk factors including fasting serum total cholesterol, TG, HDL-C, sdLDL-C, and direct LDL-C assessed. One-way ANOVA and multiple linear regression analyses were carried to assess the interrelationships of these parameters with smoking.

Results: In both men and women, current smokers had significantly ( p ＜0.001) higher median TG (+19.6%, +16.9%) and sdLDL-C levels (+12.7%, +4.2%) levels, and significantly ( p ＜0.001) lower HDL-C levels (-7.3%, -4.3%) than non-smokers. They were also significantly ( p ＜0.05) more likely to have TG values ＞150 mg/dL (+56.8%, +116.3%), sdLDL-C ＞40.1 mg/dL (+28.8%, +44.9%), and HDL-C ＜40 mg/dL (+89.8%, +114.3%). Ex-smokers generally had lipid values that were intermediate between non-smokers and current smokers. Multivariate analysis confirmed the significance of these relationships.

Conclusion: Our data indicate that current cigarette smoking is associated with increased TG and sdLDL-C levels, as well as decreased HDL-C levels. Furthermore, smoking effect on lipid profiles remain after cessation. These data provide further justification for smoking cessation.

Risk for Recurrent Cardiovascular Events and Expected Risk Reduction With Optimal Treatment 1 Year After an Acute Coronary Syndrome

According to the latest European Society of Cardiology Guidelines for the diagnosis and management of chronic coronary syndromes, patients who suffered an acute coronary syndrome fall into a chronic stable phase after 1 year. In these patients, the estimated 10-year risk for recurrent cardiovascular events varies considerably. We applied the SMART (Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease) risk score in 281 patients 1 year after an acute coronary syndrome to estimate the 10-year risk for recurrent cardiovascular events (subsequent nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death). We assessed the distribution of the estimated risk and the potential risk reduction that might be achieved with optimal guideline-directed management of modifiable risk factors (systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, and body mass index). In our cohort, the median SMART score was 16.1% (interquartile range [IQR] 9.7 to 27.3), particularly increased in patients with older age, diabetes, polyvascular disease or chronic kidney disease (median 28.6%, IQR 20.8 to 52.9; 23.8%, 4.8 to 41.6; 29.4%, 18.8 to 49.7; 53.8%, 26.5 to 71.6, respectively). If all modifiable risk factors met guideline-recommended targets, the median SMART risk score would be 9.6% (IQR 6.3 to 20.9), with 51% of the patients at a 10-year risk <10%, while 11% and 15% at 20% to 30% and >30% risk, respectively. In conclusion, the SMART score had a wide distribution in patients with chronic coronary syndromes. A quarter of patients remained at a >20% 10-year risk, even with optimal risk factor management, clearly underlining that residual risk is an unmet clinical challenge.

Cardiovascular risk of smoking and benefits of smoking cessation

Smoking increases mortality from all causes and has a crucial role in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Active smoking and secondhand smoke exposure determine more than 30% of coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality. The exact mechanisms of cardiovascular damages are not well known, but the detrimental effect of smoking on endothelial function has long been recognized. Smoking elicits oxidative processes, negatively affects platelet function, fibrinolysis, inflammation and vasomotor function; all these proatherogenic effects double the 10-year risk of fatal events in smokers compared to non smokers. An intriguing issue about smoking is the vulnerability of female gender. The mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is higher in female than male smokers and female smokers show a 25% higher risk of developing CHD than men with the same exposure to tobacco smoke. This female vulnerability seems to be related to genes involved in thrombin signaling. The effects of smoking cessation have also been extensively studied. Cessation at an early age (40 years) has an impressive 90% reduction in the excess risk of death. In this review we report recent data about the causal link between smoking and CVDs and about the benefits of smoking cessation.