Dry weather induces outbreaks of human West Nile virus infections

Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed flavivirus causing encephalitis globally, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The changing climate is poised to reshape the landscape of various infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne ones like WNV. Understanding the anticipated geographical and range shifts in disease transmission due to climate change, alongside effective adaptation strategies, is critical for mitigating future public health impacts. This scoping review aims to consolidate evidence on the impact of climate change on WNV and to identify a spectrum of applicable adaptation strategies.

MAIN BODY

We systematically analyzed research articles from PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and EBSCOhost. Our criteria included English-language research articles published between 2007 and 2023, focusing on the impacts of climate change on WNV and related adaptation strategies. We extracted data concerning study objectives, populations, geographical focus, and specific findings. Literature was categorized into two primary themes: 1) climate-WNV associations, and 2) climate change impacts on WNV transmission, providing a clear understanding. Out of 2168 articles reviewed, 120 met our criteria. Most evidence originated from North America (59.2%) and Europe (28.3%), with a primary focus on human cases (31.7%). Studies on climate-WNV correlations (n = 83) highlighted temperature (67.5%) as a pivotal climate factor. In the analysis of climate change impacts on WNV (n = 37), most evidence suggested that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, with the extent of the impact depending on local and regional conditions. Although few studies directly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies for climate-induced disease transmission, the proposed strategies (n = 49) fell into six categories: 1) surveillance and monitoring (38.8%), 2) predictive modeling (18.4%), 3) cross-disciplinary collaboration (16.3%), 4) environmental management (12.2%), 5) public education (8.2%), and 6) health system readiness (6.1%). Additionally, we developed an accessible online platform to summarize the evidence on climate change impacts on WNV transmission ( https://2xzl2o-neaop.shinyapps.io/WNVScopingReview/ ).

CONCLUSIONS

This review reveals that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, but the literature reflects only a small share of the global WNV dynamics. There is an urgent need for adaptive responses to anticipate and respond to the climate-driven spread of WNV. Nevertheless, studies focusing on these adaptation responses are sparse compared to those examining the impacts of climate change. Further research on the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for vector-borne diseases, along with more comprehensive evidence synthesis, is needed to inform effective policy responses tailored to local contexts.

The Role of Temperature, Wind Speed, and Precipitation on the Abundance of Culex Species and West Nile Virus Infection Rate in Rural West-Central Illinois

While most research on West Nile virus (WNV) and its main vector, the Culex mosquito, has been conducted in laboratory or urban settings, studies with field-caught mosquitoes in rural areas, such as west-central Illinois, are lacking. The objective of this research was to investigate key abiotic factors using macroclimate data, including temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, to determine their influence on field-caught mosquito abundance in 4 rural counties in Illinois from 2014 to 2016. Additionally, the relationship between minimum infection rate (MIR) and thermal time was examined. Using gravid traps at 15 sites, Culex mosquitoes were collected twice a week. A total of 5,255 adult female Culex mosquitoes (Cx. pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus, and Cx. restuans) were collected in 2014; 9,138 in 2015; and 5,702 in 2016. Regression models were developed based on outcomes of relationships between field-caught mosquitoes and abiotic factors. Precipitation and thermal time had the most significant relationship with mosquito abundance (r2 = 0.993 and r2 = 0.993, respectively), while wind speed was less (r2 = 0.714). The greatest number of Culex and the highest annual MIR were observed in 2015, which was also the driest of the 3 sampling seasons. Mosquito abundance was observed to increase with warmer degree days and MIR was found to increase with abundance in mosquitoes. These models can be used for other mosquito surveillance and monitoring studies in various climate types and environments.

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence.

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans.

METHODS

We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R2=0.61.

RESULTS

Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables.

DISCUSSION

We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10986.

Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada

West Nile virus is the most common mosquito borne disease in North America and the leading cause of viral encephalitis. West Nile virus is primarily transmitted between birds and mosquitoes while humans are incidental, dead-end hosts. Climate change may increase the risk of human infections as climatic variables have been shown to affect the mosquito life cycle, biting rate, incubation period of the disease in mosquitoes, and bird migration patterns. We develop a zero-inflated Poisson model to investigate how human West Nile virus case counts vary with respect to mosquito abundance and infection rates, bird abundance, and other environmental covariates. We use a Bayesian paradigm to fit our model to data from 2010-2019 in Ontario, Canada. Our results show mosquito infection rate, temperature, precipitation, and crow abundance are positively correlated with human cases while NDVI and robin abundance are negatively correlated with human cases. We find the inclusion of spatial random effects allows for more accurate predictions, particularly in years where cases are higher. Our model is able to accurately predict the magnitude and timing of yearly West Nile virus outbreaks and could be a valuable tool for public health officials to implement prevention strategies to mitigate these outbreaks.

Laplace approximation for conditional autoregressive models for spatial data of diseases

Conditional autoregressive (CAR) distributions are used to account for spatial autocorrelation in small areal or lattice data to assess the spatial risks of diseases. The intrinsic CAR (ICAR) distribution has been primarily used as the priori distribution of spatially autocorrelated random variables in the framework of Bayesian statistics. The posterior distributions of spatial variates and unknown parameters of Bayesian ICAR models are estimated with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods or integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), which may suffer from failures in numeric convergence. This study used the Laplace approximation, a fast computational method available in software Template Model Builder (TMB), for the maximum likelihood estimation (MLEs) of the ICAR model parameters. This study used the TMB to integrate out the latent spatial variates for the fast computations of marginal likelihood functions. This study compared the runtime and performance among the TMB, MCMC, and INLA implementations with three case studies of human diseases in the United Kingdom and the United States. The MLEs of the ICAR model with TMB were similar to those by the MCMC and INLA methods. The TMB implementation was faster than the MCMC (up to 100–200 times) and INLA (nine times) models.

• This study built conditional autoregressive models in template model builder

• TMB implementation was 100-200 times faster than the MCMC method

• TMB implementation was also faster than Bayesian approximation with R INLA

Artificial intelligence to predict West Nile virus outbreaks with eco-climatic drivers

Background

In Europe, the frequency, intensity, and geographic range of West Nile virus (WNV)-outbreaks have increased over the past decade, with a 7.2-fold increase in 2018 compared to 2017, and a markedly expanded geographic area compared to 2010. The reasons for this increase and range expansion remain largely unknown due to the complexity of the transmission pathways and underlying disease drivers. In a first, we use advanced artificial intelligence to disentangle the contribution of eco-climatic drivers to WNV-outbreaks across Europe using decade-long (2010-2019) data at high spatial resolution.

Methods

We use a high-performance machine learning classifier, XGBoost (eXtreme gradient boosting) combined with state-of-the-art XAI (eXplainable artificial intelligence) methodology to describe the predictive ability and contribution of different drivers of the emergence and transmission of WNV-outbreaks in Europe, respectively.

Findings

Our model, trained on 2010-2017 data achieved an AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) score of 0.97 and 0.93 when tested with 2018 and 2019 data, respectively, showing a high discriminatory power to classify a WNV-endemic area. Overall, positive summer/spring temperatures anomalies, lower water availability index (NDWI), and drier winter conditions were found to be the main determinants of WNV-outbreaks across Europe. The climate trends of the preceding year in combination with eco-climatic predictors of the first half of the year provided a robust predictive ability of the entire transmission season ahead of time. For the extraordinary 2018 outbreak year, relatively higher spring temperatures and the abundance of Culex mosquitoes were the strongest predictors, in addition to past climatic trends.

Interpretation

Our AI-based framework can be deployed to trigger rapid and timely alerts for active surveillance and vector control measures in order to intercept an imminent WNV-outbreak in Europe.

Funding

The work was partially funded by the Swedish Research Council FORMAS for the project ARBOPREVENT (grant agreement 2018-05973).

Factors affecting the COVID-19 risk in the US counties: an innovative approach by combining unsupervised and supervised learning

The COVID-19 disease spreads swiftly, and nearly three months after the first positive case was confirmed in China, Coronavirus started to spread all over the United States. Some states and counties reported high number of positive cases and deaths, while some reported lower COVID-19 related cases and death. In this paper, the factors that could affect the risk of COVID-19 infection and death were analyzed in county level. An innovative method by using K-means clustering and several classification models is utilized to determine the most critical factors. Results showed that longitudinal coordinate and population density, latitudinal coordinate, percentage of non-white people, percentage of uninsured people, percent of people below poverty, percentage of Elderly people, number of ICU beds per 10,000 people, percentage of smokers were the most significant attributes.

West Nile Virus diffusion in temperate regions and climate change. A systematic review

West Nile virus (WNV) is a member of the Japanese encephalitis serocomplex, which was first described in 1937 as neurotropic virus in Uganda in 1937. Subsequently, WNV was identified in the rest of the old-world and from 1999 in North America. Birds are the primary hosts, and WNV is maintained in a bird-mosquito-bird cycle, with pigs as amplifying hosts and humans and horses as incidental hosts. WNV transmission is warranted by mosquitoes, usually of the Culex spp., with a tendency to spill over when mosquitoes' populations build up. Other types of transmissions have been described in endemic areas, as trough transplanted organs and transfused blood, placenta, maternal milk, and in some occupational settings. WNV infections in North America and Europe are generally reported during the summer and autumn. Extreme climate phenomena and soil degradation are important events which contribute to expansion of mosquito population and consequently to the increasing number of infections. Draught plays a pivotal role as it makes foul water standing in city drains and catch basins richer of organic material. The relationship between global warming and WNV in climate areas is depicted by investigations on 16,298 WNV cases observed in the United States during the period 2001-2005 that showed that a 5°C increase in mean maximum weekly temperature was associated with a 32-50% higher incidence of WNV infection. In Europe, during the 2022 season, an increase of WNV cases was observed in Mediterranean countries where 1,041 cases were reported based on ECDC data. This outbreak can be associated to the climate characteristics reported during this period and to the introduction of a new WNV-1 lineage. In conclusion, current climate change is causing an increase of mosquito circulation that supports the widest spread of some vector-borne virus including WNV diffusion in previously non-permissible areas. This warrant public health measures to control vectors circulation to reduce WNV and to screen blood and organ donations.

West Nile Virus in the State of Ceará, Northeast Brazil

In June 2019, a horse with neurological disorder was diagnosed with West Nile virus (WNV) in Boa Viagem, a municipality in the state of Ceará, northeast Brazil. A multi-institutional task force coordinated by the Brazilian Ministry of Health was deployed to the area for case investigation. A total of 513 biological samples from 78 humans, 157 domestic animals and 278 free-ranging wild birds, as well as 853 adult mosquitoes of 22 species were tested for WNV by highly specific serological and/or molecular tests. No active circulation of WNV was detected in vertebrates or mosquitoes by molecular methods. Previous exposure to WNV was confirmed by seroconversion in domestic birds and by the detection of specific neutralizing antibodies in 44% (11/25) of equids, 20.9% (14/67) of domestic birds, 4.7% (13/278) of free-ranging wild birds, 2.6% (2/78) of humans, and 1.5% (1/65) of small ruminants. Results indicate that not only equines but also humans and different species of domestic animals and wild birds were locally exposed to WNV. The detection of neutralizing antibodies for WNV in free-ranging individuals of abundant passerine species suggests that birds commonly found in the region may have been involved as amplifying hosts in local transmission cycles of WNV.

Geospatial analysis of misinformation in COVID-19 related tweets

COVID-19 has emerged as a global pandemic caused by its highly transmissible nature during the incubation period. In the absence of vaccination, containment is seen as the best strategy to stop virus diffusion. However, public awareness has been adversely affected by discourses in social media that have downplayed the severity of the virus and disseminated false information. This article investigates COVID-19 related Twitter activity in May and June 2020 to examine the origin and nature of misinformation and its relationship with the COVID-19 incidence rate at the state and county level. A geodatabase of all geotagged COVID-19 related tweets was compiled. Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression was employed to examine the association between social media activity and the spatial variability of disease incidence. Findings suggest that MGWR could explain 80% of the COVID-19 incidence rate variations indicating a strong spatial relationship between social media activity and spread of the Covid-19 virus. Discourse analysis was conducted on tweets to index tweets downplaying the pandemic or disseminating misinformation. Findings indicate that sites of Twitter misinformation showed more resistance to pandemic management measures in May and June 2020 later experienced a rise in the number of cases in July.

Climate change, environment pollution, COVID-19 pandemic and mental health

Converging data would indicate the existence of possible relationships between climate change, environmental pollution and epidemics/pandemics, such as the current one due to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Each of these phenomena has been supposed to provoke detrimental effects on mental health. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to review the available scientific literature on these variables in order to suggest and comment on their eventual synergistic effects on mental health. The available literature report that climate change, air pollution and COVID-19 pandemic might influence mental health, with disturbances ranging from mild negative emotional responses to full-blown psychiatric conditions, specifically, anxiety and depression, stress/trauma-related disorders, and substance abuse. The most vulnerable groups include elderly, children, women, people with pre-existing health problems especially mental illnesses, subjects taking some types of medication including psychotropic drugs, individuals with low socio-economic status, and immigrants. It is evident that COVID-19 pandemic uncovers all the fragility and weakness of our ecosystem, and inability to protect ourselves from pollutants. Again, it underlines our faults and neglect towards disasters deriving from climate change or pollution, or the consequences of human activities irrespective of natural habitats and constantly increasing the probability of spillover of viruses from animals to humans. In conclusion, the psychological/psychiatric consequences of COVID-19 pandemic, that currently seem unavoidable, represent a sharp cue of our misconception and indifference towards the links between our behaviour and their influence on the "health" of our planet and of ourselves. It is time to move towards a deeper understanding of these relationships, not only for our survival, but for the maintenance of that balance among man, animals and environment at the basis of life in earth, otherwise there will be no future.

Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions

Spatial connectivity plays an important role in mosquito-borne disease transmission. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared environments, vector ecology and human movement. This systematic review synthesizes the spatial methods used to model mosquito-borne diseases, their spatial connectivity assumptions and the data used to inform spatial model components. We identified 248 papers eligible for inclusion. Most used statistical models (84.2%), although mechanistic are increasingly used. We identified 17 spatial models which used one of four methods (spatial covariates, local regression, random effects/fields and movement matrices). Over 80% of studies assumed that connectivity was distance-based despite this approach ignoring distant connections and potentially oversimplifying the process of transmission. Studies were more likely to assume connectivity was driven by human movement if the disease was transmitted by an Aedes mosquito. Connectivity arising from human movement was more commonly assumed in studies using a mechanistic model, likely influenced by a lack of statistical models able to account for these connections. Although models have been increasing in complexity, it is important to select the most appropriate, parsimonious model available based on the research question, disease transmission process, the spatial scale and availability of data, and the way spatial connectivity is assumed to occur.

Predicting the spatio-temporal spread of West Nile virus in Europe

West Nile virus is a widely spread arthropod-born virus, which has mosquitoes as vectors and birds as reservoirs. Humans, as dead-end hosts of the virus, may suffer West Nile Fever (WNF), which sometimes leads to death. In Europe, the first large-scale epidemic of WNF occurred in 1996 in Romania. Since then, human cases have increased in the continent, where the highest number of cases occurred in 2018. Using the location of WNF cases in 2017 and favorability models, we developed two risk models, one environmental and the other spatio-environmental, and tested their capacity to predict in 2018: 1) the location of WNF; 2) the intensity of the outbreaks (i.e. the number of confirmed human cases); and 3) the imminence of the cases (i.e. the Julian week in which the first case occurred). We found that climatic variables (the maximum temperature of the warmest month and the annual temperature range), human-related variables (rain-fed agriculture, the density of poultry and horses), and topo-hydrographic variables (the presence of rivers and altitude) were the best environmental predictors of WNF outbreaks in Europe. The spatio-environmental model was the most useful in predicting the location of WNF outbreaks, which suggests that a spatial structure, probably related to bird migration routes, has a role in the geographical pattern of WNF in Europe. Both the intensity of cases and their imminence were best predicted using the environmental model, suggesting that these features of the disease are linked to the environmental characteristics of the areas. We highlight the relevance of river basins in the propagation dynamics of the disease, as outbreaks started in the lower parts of the river basins, from where WNF spread towards the upper parts. Therefore, river basins should be considered as operational geographic units for the public health management of the disease.

A correlation study between weather and atmosphere with COVID-19 pandemic in Islamabad, Pakistan

The present research aims to investigate the association amid weather and the most recent pandemic of COVID-19 in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. The source of COVID-19 surveillance data for the secondary data analysis was the Pakistan’s Ministry of National Health Services Regulations and Coordination. The weather data obtained from the Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) was exercised in this research. The components of weather include wind speed (m/s), precipitation level (mm), normal, mean, maximum, and minimum temperature (°C). For data analysis, a non-parametric correlation test was used due to the reason that normality was not satisfied. Precipitation level (r =  − 0.285; p  =0 .022), normal temperature (r = 0.293; p  = 0.019) as well as the maximum temperature (r = 0.347; p  = 0.005) were very much associated with COVID-19 virus. Pollution data (showing the concentration of NO2) of the specific region comprising the study area extracted from the Sentinel-5P satellite was also compared for the two years (2019 and 2020). Since the country will be entering to a new weather season, the conclusions may well assist the strategy and decision-makers in the deterrence of COVID-19.

Temperature and precipitation associate with Covid-19 new daily cases: A correlation study between weather and Covid-19 pandemic in Oslo, Norway

This study aims to analyze the correlation between weather and covid-19 pandemic in the capital city of Norway, Oslo. This study employed a secondary data analysis of covid-19 surveillance data from the Norwegian public health institute and weather data from the Norwegian Meteorological institute. The components of weather include minimum temperature (°C), maximum temperature (°C), temperature average (°C), normal temperature (°C), precipitation level (mm) and wind speed (m/s). Since normality was not fulfilled, a non-parametric correlation test was used for data analysis. Maximum temperature (r = 0.347; p = .005), normal temperature(r = 0.293; p = .019), and precipitation level (r = -0.285; p = .022) were significantly correlated with covid-19 pandemic. The finding might serve as an input to a strategy making in the prevention of covid-19 as the country prepare to enter into a new weather season.

The nexus between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 pandemic: case of Islamabad, Pakistan

The study aimed to investigate the correlation between meteorological parameters and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Islamabad, Pakistan. The meteorological parameters include temperature minimum (°C), temperature maximum (°C), temperature average (°C), humidity minimum (%), humidity maximum (%), humidity average (%), and rainfall (mm). The data of COVID-19, such as the number of new confirmed cases and deaths was obtained from the Ministry of Health, Pakistan. The correlations of various types, i.e., Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall correlations between meteorological parameters and COVID-19, were employed for data analyses. The results exhibited a highly significant relationship between COVID-19 and temperature minimum and temperature average among all meteorological parameters. The study findings may help competitive authorities to combat this disease in Pakistan.

Critical Analysis of the Value of Drought Information and Impacts on Land Management and Public Health

This paper reviews previous efforts to assign monetary value to climatic or meteorological information, such as public information on drought, climate, early warning systems, and weather forecast information. Methods and tools that have been explored to examine the benefits of climatic and meteorological information include the avoided cost, contingent valuation, choice experiments, benefit transfer, and descriptive approaches using surveys. The second part of this paper discusses specific considerations related to valuing drought information for public health and the Bureau of Land Management. We found a multitude of connections between drought and the land management and health sectors in the literature. The majority of the papers that we summarized only report biophysical change, because the economic losses of drought are not available. Only a few papers reported economic loss associated with drought. To determine the value of drought information, we need to know more about the role it plays in decision making and what sources of drought information are used in different sectors. This inventory of methods and impacts highlights opportunities for further research in valuing drought information in land management and public health.

The knowns and unknowns of West Nile virus in Europe: what did we learn from the 2018 outbreak?

Introduction: West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne human and animal pathogen with nearly worldwide distribution. In Europe, the virus is endemic with seasonal regional outbreaks that have increased in frequency over the last 10 years. A massive outbreak occurred across southern and central Europe in 2018 with the number of confirmed human cases increasing up to 7.2-fold from the previous year, and expanding to include previously virus-free regions.Areas covered: This review focuses on potential causes that may explain the 2018 European WNV outbreak. We discuss the role genetic, ecological, and environmental aspects may have played in the increased activity during the 2018 transmission season, summarizing the latest epidemiological and virological publications.Expert opinion: Optimal environmental conditions, specifically increased temperature, were most likely responsible for the observed outbreak. Other factors cannot be ruled out due to limited available information, including factors that may influence host/vector abundance and contact. Europe will likely experience even larger-scale outbreaks in the coming years. Increased surveillance efforts should be implemented with a focus on early-warning detection methods, and large-scale host and vector surveys should continue to fill gaps in knowledge.

Biological Adaptations Associated with Dehydration in Mosquitoes

Diseases that are transmitted by mosquitoes are a tremendous health and socioeconomic burden with hundreds of millions of people being impacted by mosquito-borne illnesses annually. Many factors have been implicated and extensively studied in disease transmission dynamics, but knowledge regarding how dehydration impacts mosquito physiology, behavior, and resulting mosquito-borne disease transmission remain underdeveloped. The lapse in understanding on how mosquitoes respond to dehydration stress likely obscures our ability to effectively study mosquito physiology, behavior, and vectorial capabilities. The goal of this review is to develop a profile of factors underlying mosquito biology that are altered by dehydration and the implications that are related to disease transmission.

Models and Surveillance Systems to Detect and Predict West Nile Virus Outbreaks

Over the past 20 yr, many models have been developed to predict risk for West Nile virus (WNV; Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) disease in the human population. These models have aided our understanding of the meteorological and land-use variables that drive spatial and temporal patterns of human disease risk. During the same period, electronic data systems have been adopted by surveillance programs across much of the United States, including a growing interest in integrated data services that preserve the autonomy and attribution of credit to originating agencies but facilitate data sharing, analysis, and visualization at local, state, and national scales. At present, nearly all predictive models have been limited to the scientific literature, with few having been implemented for use by public-health and vector-control decision makers. The current article considers the development of models for spatial patterns, early warning, and early detection of WNV over the last 20 yr and considers some possible paths toward increasing the utility of these models for guiding interventions.

Prevalence and molecular epidemiology of West Nile and Usutu virus infections in Croatia in the 'One health' context, 2018

In 2018, Croatia reported the largest outbreak of West Nile virus (WNV) infections as well as the re-occurrence of human Usutu virus (USUV) infections. For the first time, fatal WNV and USUV infections were detected in wild birds. We analysed epidemiological characteristics and molecular epidemiology of WNV and USUV infections detected during 2018 transmission season. From April to November, 178 patients with neuroinvasive disease and 68 patients with febrile disease were tested for WNV and USUV. Viral RNA was detected in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and urine samples using a real-time RT-PCR. Positive samples were tested by nested RT-PCR and nucleotide sequencing. IgM/IgG antibodies were detected in serum/CSF samples using ELISA with confirmation of cross-reactive samples by virus neutralization test (VNT). WNV neuroinvasive disease was confirmed in 54 and WNV fever in seven patients from 10 continental Croatian counties. Areas affected in 2018 were those in which cases occurred in previous seasons, while in three areas human cases were reported for the first time. Phylogenetic analysis of six strains from patients residing in different geographic areas showed circulation of WNV lineage 2. In three patients, neuroinvasive USUV infection was confirmed by RT-PCR or VNT. Sequence analysis of one detected strain revealed USUV Europe 2 lineage. During the same period, a total of 2,574 horse and 1,069 poultry serum samples were tested for WNV antibodies using ELISA. Acute asymptomatic WNV infection (IgM antibodies) was documented in 20/0.7% horses. WNV IgG antibodies were found in 307/11.9% horses and in 125/12.7% poultry. WNV RNA was detected in two goshawks and USUV RNA was detected in one blackbird from north-western Croatia. In the Zagreb area, 3,670 female mosquitoes were collected. One Culex pipiens pool collected in July tested positive for USUV RNA. Our results highlight the importance of continuous multidisciplinary 'One health' surveillance of these emerging arboviruses.

Could exotic mosquito-borne diseases emerge in Canada with climate change?

Of the 3,500 species of mosquitoes worldwide, only a small portion carry and transmit the mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) that cause approximately half a million deaths annually worldwide. The most common exotic MBDs, such as malaria and dengue, are not currently established in Canada, in part because of our relatively harsh climate; however, this situation could evolve with climate change. Mosquitoes native to Canada may become infected with new pathogens and move into new regions within Canada. In addition, new mosquito species may move into Canada from other countries, and these exotic species may bring exotic MBDs as well. With high levels of international travel, including to locations with exotic MBDs, there will be more travel-acquired cases of MBDs. With climate change, there is the potential for exotic mosquito populations to become established in Canada. There is already a small area of Canada where exotic Aedes mosquitoes have become established although, to date, there is no evidence that these carry any exotic (or already endemic) MBDs. The increased risks of spreading MBDs, or introducing exotic MBDs, will need a careful clinical and public health response. Clinicians will need to maintain a high level of awareness of current trends, to promote mosquito bite prevention strategies, and to know the laboratory tests needed for early detection and when to report laboratory results to public health. Public health efforts will need to focus on ongoing active surveillance, public and professional awareness and mosquito control. Canadians need to be aware of the risks of acquiring exotic MBDs while travelling abroad as well as the risk that they could serve as a potential route of introduction for exotic MBDs into Canada when they return home.

Dehydration prompts increased activity and blood feeding by mosquitoes

Current insights into the mosquito dehydration response rely on studies that examine specific responses but ultimately fail to provide an encompassing view of mosquito biology. Here, we examined underlying changes in the biology of mosquitoes associated with dehydration. Specifically, we show that dehydration increases blood feeding in the northern house mosquito, Culex pipiens, which was the result of both higher activity and a greater tendency to land on a host. Similar observations were noted for Aedes aegypti and Anopheles quadrimaculatus. RNA-seq and metabolome analyses in C. pipiens following dehydration revealed that factors associated with carbohydrate metabolism are altered, specifically the breakdown of trehalose. Suppression of trehalose breakdown in C. pipiens by RNA interference reduced phenotypes associated with lower hydration levels. Lastly, mesocosm studies for C. pipiens confirmed that dehydrated mosquitoes were more likely to host feed under ecologically relevant conditions. Disease modeling indicates dehydration bouts will likely enhance viral transmission. This dehydration-induced increase in blood feeding is therefore likely to occur regularly and intensify during periods when availability of water is low.

Climate Change and Respiratory Infections

The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future.

Integrating Environmental Monitoring and Mosquito Surveillance to Predict Vector-borne Disease: Prospective Forecasts of a West Nile Virus Outbreak

INTRODUCTION

Predicting the timing and locations of future mosquito-borne disease outbreaks has the potential to improve the targeting of mosquito control and disease prevention efforts. Here, we present and evaluate prospective forecasts made prior to and during the 2016 West Nile virus (WNV) season in South Dakota, a hotspot for human WNV transmission in the United States.

METHODS

We used a county-level logistic regression model to predict the weekly probability of human WNV case occurrence as a function of temperature, precipitation, and an index of mosquito infection status. The model was specified and fitted using historical data from 2004-2015 and was applied in 2016 to make short-term forecasts of human WNV cases in the upcoming week as well as whole-year forecasts of WNV cases throughout the entire transmission season. These predictions were evaluated at the end of the 2016 WNV season by comparing them with spatial and temporal patterns of the human cases that occurred.

RESULTS

There was an outbreak of WNV in 2016, with a total of 167 human cases compared to only 40 in 2015. Model results were generally accurate, with an AUC of 0.856 for short-term predictions. Early-season temperature data were sufficient to predict an earlier-than-normal start to the WNV season and an above-average number of cases, but underestimated the overall case burden. Model predictions improved throughout the season as more mosquito infection data were obtained, and by the end of July the model provided a close estimate of the overall magnitude of the outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

An integrated model that included meteorological variables as well as a mosquito infection index as predictor variables accurately predicted the resurgence of WNV in South Dakota in 2016. Key areas for future research include refining the model to improve predictive skill and developing strategies to link forecasts with specific mosquito control and disease prevention activities.

A comparison study of Zika virus outbreaks in French Polynesia, Colombia and the State of Bahia in Brazil

Zika virus (ZIKV) disease outbreaks occurred in French Polynesia in 2013-2014 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2015-2016, respectively. Using our recently developed ZIKV disease model, we simulated the reported ZIKV infection cases from French Polynesia, Colombia and the State of Bahia of Brazil. Moreover, we estimated that the infection attack rates were 78.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 63.5-86.3%) in French Polynesia which closely matches a previous serological study; 20.8% (95% CI: 1.1-50.0%) in Colombia which suggests that the attack rate was most likely less than 50%; and 32.4% (95% CI: 2.5-94.2%) in the State of Bahia in Brazil which suggests that the attack rate is unidentifiable with monthly data in Bahia. Furthermore, we found that the association of precipitation and ZIKV outbreak was more evident in Colombia than the other two places. These results are helpful for us to understand the possible evolution, to control the on-going outbreaks, to prevent the potential geographic spread, and to study the ecological and epidemiological characteristics of ZIKV.

Identification of Climatic Factors Affecting the Epidemiology of Human West Nile Virus Infections in Northern Greece

Climate can affect the geographic and seasonal patterns of vector-borne disease incidence such as West Nile Virus (WNV) infections. We explore the association between climatic factors and the occurrence of West Nile fever (WNF) or West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) in humans in Northern Greece over the years 2010–2014. Time series over a period of 30 years (1979–2008) of climatic data of air temperature, relative humidity, soil temperature, volumetric soil water content, wind speed, and precipitation representing average climate were obtained utilising the ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) system allowing for a homogeneous set of data in time and space. We analysed data of reported human cases of WNF/WNND and Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Quantitative assessment resulted in identifying associations between the above climatic variables and reported human cases of WNF/WNND. A substantial fraction of the cases was linked to the upper percentiles of the distribution of air and soil temperature for the period 1979–2008 and the lower percentiles of relative humidity and soil water content. A statistically relevant relationship between the mean weekly value climatic anomalies of wind speed (negative association), relative humidity (negative association) and air temperature (positive association) over 30 years, and reported human cases of WNF/WNND during the period 2010–2014 could be shown. A negative association between the presence of WNV infected Culex mosquitoes and wind speed could be identified. The statistically significant associations could also be confirmed for the week the WNF/WNND human cases appear and when a time lag of up to three weeks was considered. Similar statistically significant associations were identified with the weekly anomalies of the maximum and minimum values of the above climatic factors. Utilising the ERA-Interim re-analysis methodology it could be shown that besides air temperature, climatic factors such as soil temperature, relative humidity, soil water content and wind speed may affect the epidemiology of WNV.

Development and validation of a climate-based ensemble prediction model for West Nile Virus infection rates in Culex mosquitoes, Suffolk County, New York

Background

West Nile Virus (WNV) is an endemic public health concern in the United States that produces periodic seasonal epidemics. Underlying these outbreaks is the enzootic cycle of WNV between mosquito vectors and bird hosts. Identifying the key environmental conditions that facilitate and accelerate this cycle can be used to inform effective vector control.

Results

Here, we model and forecast WNV infection rates among mosquito vectors in Suffolk County, New York using readily available meteorological and hydrological conditions. We first validate a statistical model built with surveillance data between 2001 and 2009 (m09) and specify a set of new statistical models using surveillance data from 2001 to 2012 (m12). This ensemble of new models is then used to make predictions for 2013–2015, and multimodel inference is employed to provide a formal probabilistic interpretation across the disparate individual model predictions. The findings of the m09 and m12 models align; with the ensemble of m12 models indicating an association between warm, dry early spring (April) conditions and increased annual WNV infection rates in Culex mosquitoes.

Conclusions

This study shows that real-time climate information can be used to predict WNV infection rates in Culex mosquitoes prior to its seasonal peak and before WNV spillover transmission risk to humans is greatest.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1720-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.

Factors That Influence the Transmission of West Nile Virus in Florida

West Nile virus (WNV) was first detected in North America in New York City during the late summer of 1999 and was first detected in Florida in 2001. Although WNV has been responsible for widespread and extensive epidemics in human populations and epizootics in domestic animals and wildlife throughout North America, comparable epidemics have never materialized in Florida. Here, we review some of the reasons why WNV has yet to cause an extensive outbreak in Florida. The primary vector of mosquito-borne encephalitis virus in Florida is Culex nigripalpus Theobald. Rainfall, drought, and temperature are the primary factors that regulate annual populations of this species. Cx. nigripalpus is a competent vector of WNV, St. Louis encephalitis virus, and eastern equine encephalitis virus in Florida, and populations of this species can support focal amplification and transmission of these arboviruses. We propose that a combination of environmental factors influencing Cx. nigripalpus oviposition, blood-feeding behavior, and vector competence have limited WNV transmission in Florida to relatively small focal outbreaks and kept the state free of a major epidemic. Florida must remain vigilant to the danger from WNV, because a change in these environmental factors could easily result in a substantial WNV epidemic rivaling those seen elsewhere in the United States.

Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada

Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health.

The Potential Use of Wolbachia-Based Mosquito Biocontrol Strategies for Japanese Encephalitis

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a zoonotic pathogen transmitted by the infectious bite of Culex mosquitoes. The virus causes the development of the disease Japanese encephalitis (JE) in a small proportion of those infected, predominantly affecting children in eastern and southern Asia. Annual JE incidence estimates range from 50,000–175,000, with 25%–30% of cases resulting in mortality. It is estimated that 3 billion people live in countries in which JEV is endemic. The virus exists in an enzootic transmission cycle, with mosquitoes transmitting JEV between birds as reservoir hosts and pigs as amplifying hosts. Zoonotic infection occurs as a result of spillover events from the main transmission cycle. The reservoir avian hosts include cattle egrets, pond herons, and other species of water birds belonging to the family Ardeidae. Irrigated rice fields provide an ideal breeding ground for mosquitoes and attract migratory birds, maintaining the transmission of JEV. Although multiple vaccines have been developed for JEV, they are expensive and require multiple doses to maintain efficacy and immunity. As humans are a “dead-end” host for the virus, vaccination of the human population is unlikely to result in eradication. Therefore, vector control of the principal mosquito vector, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, represents a more promising strategy for reducing transmission. Current vector control strategies include intermittent irrigation of rice fields and space spraying of insecticides during outbreaks. However, Cx. Tritaeniorhynchus is subject to heavy exposure to pesticides in rice fields, and as a result, insecticide resistance has developed. In recent years, significant advancements have been made in the potential use of the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia for mosquito biocontrol. The successful transinfection of Wolbachia strains from Drosophila flies to Aedes (Stegomyia) mosquitoes has resulted in the generation of “dengue-refractory” mosquito lines. The successful establishment of Wolbachia in wild Aedes aegypti populations has recently been demonstrated, and open releases in dengue-endemic countries are ongoing. This review outlines the current control methods for JEV in addition to highlighting the potential use of Wolbachia-based biocontrol strategies to impact transmission. JEV and dengue virus are both members of the Flavivirus genus, and the successful establishment of Drosophila Wolbachia strains in Cx. Tritaeniorhynchus, as the principal vector of JEV, is predicted to significantly impact JEV transmission.

West Nile virus: North American experience

West Nile virus, a mosquito-vectored flavivirus of the Japanese encephalitis serogroup, was first detected in North America following an epizootic in the New York City area in 1999. In the intervening 11 years since the arrival of the virus in North America, it has crossed the contiguous USA, entered the Canadian provinces bordering the USA, and has been reported in the Caribbean islands, Mexico, Central America and, more recently, South America. West Nile virus has been reported in over 300 species of birds in the USA and has caused the deaths of thousands of birds, local population declines of some avian species, the clinical illness and deaths of thousands of domestic horses, and the clinical disease in over 30 000 Americans and the deaths of over 1000. Prior to the emergence of West Nile virus in North America, St. Louis encephalitis virus and Dengue virus were the only other known mosquito-transmitted flaviviruses in North America capable of causing human disease. This review will discuss the North American experience with mosquito-borne flavivirus prior to the arrival of West Nile virus, the entry and spread of West Nile virus in North America, effects on wild bird populations, genetic changes in the virus, and the current state of West Nile virus transmission.

Spatial and temporal distribution of West Nile virus in horses in Israel (1997-2013)--from endemic to epidemics

With the rapid global spread of West Nile virus (WNV) and the endemic state it has acquired in new geographical areas, we hereby bring a thorough serological investigation of WNV in horses in a longstanding endemic region, such as Israel. This study evaluates the environmental and demographic risk factors for WNV infection in horses and suggests possible factors associated with the transition from endemic to epidemic state. West Nile virus seroprevalence in horses in Israel was determined throughout a period of more than a decade, before (1997) and after (2002 and 2013) the massive West Nile fever outbreak in humans and horses in 2000. An increase in seroprevalence was observed, from 39% (113/290) in 1997 to 66.1% (547/827) in 2002 and 85.5% (153/179) in 2013, with persistent significantly higher seroprevalence in horses situated along the Great Rift Valley (GRV) area, the major birds' migration route in Israel. Demographic risk factors included age and breed of the horse. Significantly lower spring precipitation was observed during years with increased human incidence rate that occurred between 1997–2007. Hence, we suggest referring to Israel as two WNV distinct epidemiological regions; an endemic region along the birds' migration route (GRV) and the rest of the country which perhaps suffers from cyclic epidemics. In addition, weather conditions, such as periods of spring drought, might be associated with the transition from endemic state to epidemic state of WNV.

A continental risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change

Since first introduced to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across the continent, threatening wildlife populations and posing serious health risks to humans. While WNV incidence has been linked to environmental factors, particularly temperature and rainfall, little is known about how future climate change may affect the spread of the disease. Using available data on WNV infections in vectors and hosts collected from 2003-2011 and using a suite of 10 species distribution models, weighted according to their predictive performance, we modeled the incidence of WNV under current climate conditions at a continental scale. Models were found to accurately predict spatial patterns of WNV that were then used to examine how future climate may affect the spread of the disease. Predictions were accurate for cases of human WNV infection in the following year (2012), with areas reporting infections having significantly higher probability of presence as predicted by our models. Projected geographic distributions of WNV in North America under future climate for 2050 and 2080 show an expansion of suitable climate for the disease, driven by warmer temperatures and lower annual precipitation that will result in the exposure of new and naïve host populations to the virus with potentially serious consequences. Our risk assessment identifies current and future hotspots of West Nile virus where mitigation efforts should be focused and presents an important new approach for monitoring vector-borne disease under climate change.

The effects of forced-egg retention on the blood-feeding behavior and reproductive potential of Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae)

High rates of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission to humans are associated with exceptionally hot and dry summers. This is paradoxical since the eggs of Culex vectors of WNV depend on the persistence of containers with water, which decline during droughts. We examined the effects of forced-egg retention on the reproductive success of female Culex pipiens as well as behavioral responses, such as likelihood of secondary blood meals. As controls we examined the effects of female age and delayed mating. We found that early mating is essential to achieve reproductive success and, consistent with an "all-or-none" ovipositing strategy, C. pipiens females are able to retain considerable reproductive potential while searching for oviposition sites. Specifically, although forced-egg retention resulted in significant decreases in fitness, the decline was moderate for 5 weeks and most can be accounted for by increases in female age. Consequently, no females took blood more than once per gonotrophic cycle, which eliminates the possibility that heightened vectorial capacity due to multiple blood-feedings increases WNV transmission during periods of drought. Instead, our findings suggest that during droughts populations of C. pipiens have time to locate the remaining water holes, which are associated with human populations and WNV-competent bird species.

Modeling monthly variation of Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae) abundance and West Nile Virus infection rate in the Canadian Prairies

The Canadian prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba have generally reported the highest human incidence of West Nile virus (WNV) in Canada. In this study, environmental and biotic factors were used to predict numbers of Culex tarsalis Coquillett, which is the primary mosquito vector of WNV in this region, and prevalence of WNV infection in Cx. tarsalis in the Canadian prairies. The results showed that higher mean temperature and elevated time lagged mean temperature were associated with increased numbers of Cx. tarsalis and higher WNV infection rates. However, increasing precipitation was associated with higher abundance of Cx. tarsalis and lower WNV infection rate. In addition, this study found that increased temperature fluctuation and wetland land cover were associated with decreased infection rate in the Cx. tarsalis population. The resulting monthly models can be used to inform public health interventions by improving the predictions of population abundance of Cx. tarsalis and the transmission intensity of WNV in the Canadian prairies. Furthermore, these models can also be used to examine the potential effects of climate change on the vector population abundance and the distribution of WNV.

Health effects of drought: a systematic review of the evidence

Introduction. Climate change projections indicate that droughts will become more intense in the 21 century in some areas of the world. The El Niño Southern Oscillation is associated with drought in some countries, and forecasts can provide advance warning of the increased risk of adverse climate conditions. The most recent available data from EMDAT estimates that over 50 million people globally were affected by drought in 2011. Documentation of the health effects of drought is difficult, given the complexity in assigning a beginning/end and because effects tend to accumulate over time. Most health impacts are indirect because of its link to other mediating circumstances like loss of livelihoods. Methods. The following databases were searched: MEDLINE; CINAHL; Embase; PsychINFO, Cochrane Collection. Key references from extracted papers were hand-searched, and advice from experts was sought for further sources of literature. Inclusion criteria for papers summarised in tables include: explicit link made between drought as exposure and human health outcomes; all study designs/methods; all countries/contexts; any year of publication. Exclusion criteria include: drought meaning shortage unrelated to climate; papers not published in English; studies on dry/arid climates unless drought was noted as an abnormal climatological event. No formal quality evaluation was used on papers meeting inclusion criteria. Results. 87 papers meeting the inclusion criteria are summarised in tables. Additionally, 59 papers not strictly meeting the inclusion criteria are used as supporting text in relevant parts of the results section. Main categories of findings include: nutrition-related effects (including general malnutrition and mortality, micronutrient malnutrition, and anti-nutrient consumption); water-related disease (including E coli, cholera and algal bloom); airborne and dust-related disease (including silo gas exposure and coccidioidomycosis); vector borne disease (including malaria, dengue and West Nile Virus); mental health effects (including distress and other emotional consequences); and other health effects (including wildfire, effects of migration, and damage to infrastructure). Conclusions. The probability of drought-related health impacts varies widely and largely depends upon drought severity, baseline population vulnerability, existing health and sanitation infrastructure, and available resources with which to mitigate impacts as they occur. The socio-economic environment in which drought occurs influences the resilience of the affected population. Forecasting can be used to provide advance warning of the increased risk of adverse climate conditions and can support the disaster risk reduction process. Despite the complexities involved in documentation, research should continue and results should be shared widely in an effort to strengthen drought preparedness and response activities.

West Nile virus infection among humans, Texas, USA, 2002-2011

We conducted an epidemiologic analysis to document West Nile virus infections among humans in Texas, USA, during 2002-2011. West Nile virus has become endemic to Texas; the number of reported cases increased every 3 years. Risk for infection was greatest in rural northwestern Texas, where Culex tarsalis mosquitoes are the predominant mosquito species.

Could drought conditions trigger Schmallenberg virus and other arboviruses circulation?

BACKGROUND

In 2011, a new orthobunyavirus, named the Schmallenberg virus (SBV), was discovered in Europe. Like the related Shamonda virus, SBV is an arbovirus (arthropod-borne virus). After its discovery, the virus was detected in a wide area in north-western Europe, an unexpected finding in a territory where climatic conditions would not seem ideal for arbovirus transmission. This sudden expansion suggests the effect of 2011 drought as a key factor that may have triggered SBV circulation. The possible influence of drought, recorded in north-western Europe in early 2011, on virus circulation was evaluated.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The locations of SBV detections in Europe until April 2012 were obtained, and area of virus circulation was evaluated by kernel density estimation. Precipitation data in SBV circulation area, summarized by the 3 month precipitation indexes of May, were compared with precipitation data outside that area, confirming driest conditions in that area.

CONCLUSIONS

The onset of drought conditions recorded in the SBV detection area in early 2011 may have promoted the circulation of this virus. A correlation between circulation of some arboviruses and drought has been reported elsewhere. This was mainly explained by an effect of water deficit on the environment, which altered the relationships between vectors and reservoirs, but this correlation might be also the result of unknown effects of drought on the vectors. The effect of drought conditions on arbovirus circulation is most likely underestimated and should be considered, since it could promote expansion of arboviruses into new areas in a global warming scenario.

West nile virus prevalence across landscapes is mediated by local effects of agriculture on vector and host communities

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) threaten the health of humans, livestock, and wildlife. West Nile virus (WNV), the world’s most widespread arbovirus, invaded the United States in 1999 and rapidly spread across the county. Although the ecology of vectors and hosts are key determinants of WNV prevalence across landscapes, the factors shaping local vector and host populations remain unclear. Here, we used spatially-explicit models to evaluate how three land-use types (orchards, vegetable/forage crops, natural) and two climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) influence the prevalence of WNV infections and vector/host distributions at landscape and local spatial scales. Across landscapes, we show that orchard habitats were associated with greater prevalence of WNV infections in reservoirs (birds) and incidental hosts (horses), while increased precipitation was associated with fewer infections. At local scales, orchard habitats increased the prevalence of WNV infections in vectors (mosquitoes) and the abundance of mosquitoes and two key reservoir species, the American robin and the house sparrow. Thus, orchard habitats benefitted WNV vectors and reservoir hosts locally, creating focal points for the transmission of WNV at landscape scales in the presence of suitable climatic conditions.

West Nile virus ecology in a tropical ecosystem in Guatemala

West Nile virus ecology has yet to be rigorously investigated in the Caribbean Basin. We identified a transmission focus in Puerto Barrios, Guatemala, and established systematic monitoring of avian abundance and infection, seroconversions in domestic poultry, and viral infections in mosquitoes. West Nile virus transmission was detected annually between May and October from 2005 to 2008. High temperature and low rainfall enhanced the probability of chicken seroconversions, which occurred in both urban and rural sites. West Nile virus was isolated from Culex quinquefasciatus and to a lesser extent, from Culex mollis/Culex inflictus, but not from the most abundant Culex mosquito, Culex nigripalpus. A calculation that combined avian abundance, seroprevalence, and vertebrate reservoir competence suggested that great-tailed grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus) is the major amplifying host in this ecosystem. West Nile virus transmission reached moderate levels in sentinel chickens during 2007, but less than that observed during outbreaks of human disease attributed to West Nile virus in the United States.

Remote sensing of climatic anomalies and West Nile virus incidence in the northern Great Plains of the United States

The northern Great Plains (NGP) of the United States has been a hotspot of West Nile virus (WNV) incidence since 2002. Mosquito ecology and the transmission of vector-borne disease are influenced by multiple environmental factors, and climatic variability is an important driver of inter-annual variation in WNV transmission risk. This study applied multiple environmental predictors including land surface temperature (LST), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) derived from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products to establish prediction models for WNV risk in the NGP. These environmental metrics are sensitive to seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, and are hypothesized to influence mosquito population dynamics and WNV transmission. Non-linear generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to evaluate the influences of deviations of cumulative LST, NDVI, and ETa on inter-annual variations of WNV incidence from 2004–2010. The models were sensitive to the timing of spring green up (measured with NDVI), temperature variability in early spring and summer (measured with LST), and moisture availability from late spring through early summer (measured with ETa), highlighting seasonal changes in the influences of climatic fluctuations on WNV transmission. Predictions based on these variables indicated a low WNV risk across the NGP in 2011, which is concordant with the low case reports in this year. Environmental monitoring using remote-sensed data can contribute to surveillance of WNV risk and prediction of future WNV outbreaks in space and time.

Predicting weekly variation of Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae) West Nile virus infection in a newly endemic region, the Canadian prairies

West Nile virus (WNV) spread across most of North America within a short time period after its incursion into the Western Hemisphere. The Canadian prairies had the highest human incidence of WNV disease in Canada, particularly in 2007. Statistical modeling and geographic information systems can be used to develop a predictive model and facilitate the mobilization of targeted disease management strategies. Using data collected between 2005 and 2008, we constructed models integrating abiotic and biotic factors to predict the WNV infection rate in female Culex tarsalis Coquillett, the primary vector of WNV in the Canadian prairies. During the study period, the highest mean Cx. tarsalis infection rate was during week 34 (late August). The Cx. tarsalis infection rate increased with increasing Cx. tarsalis abundance and mean temperature lagged from 1 to 8 wk, but decreased with increasing mean precipitation lagged from 2 to 6 wk. Furthermore, precipitation was a 'distorter variable' that altered the association between Cx. tarsalis abundance and the WNV infection rate. Our model clarified how weather influenced the Cx. tarsalis infection rate in the Canadian prairies, a newly and highly WNV endemic region of North America. An understanding of the role of lagged weather variables was essential for providing sufficient lead time to predict WNV occurrence, and for implementing disease control and prevention strategies. Furthermore, it is a useful tool for assessing the potential effects of future climate change on WNV in areas near its northern distributional limit.