Global malaria connectivity through air travel

The role of connectivity on malaria dynamics across areas with contrasting control coverage in the Peruvian Amazon

Network analysis may improve the understanding of malaria epidemiology in rural areas of the Amazon region by explicitly representing the relationships between villages as a proxy for human population mobility. This study tests a comprehensive set of connectivity metrics and their relationship with malaria incidence across villages with contrasting PAMAFRO (a malaria control initiative) coverage levels in the Loreto department of Peru using data from the passive case detection reports from the Peruvian Ministry of Health between 2011 and 2018 at the village level. A total of 24 centrality metrics were computed and tested on 1608 nodes (i.e., villages/cities). Based on its consistency and stability, the betweenness centrality type outperformed other metrics. No appreciable differences in the distributions of malaria incidence were found when using different weights, including population, deforested area, Euclidian distance, or travel time. Overall, villages in the top quintile of centrality have a higher malaria incidence in comparison with villages in the bottom quintile of centrality (Mean Difference in cases per 1000 population; P. vivax = 165.78 and P. falciparum = 76.14). The mean difference between villages at the top and bottom centrality quintiles increases as PAMAFRO coverage increases for both P. vivax (Tier 1 = 155.36; Tier 2 = 176.22; Tier 3 = 326.08) and P. falciparum (Tier 1 = 48.11; Tier 2 = 95.16; Tier 3 = 139.07). The findings of this study support the shift in current malaria control strategies from targeting specific locations based on malaria metrics to strategies based on connectivity neighborhoods that include influential connected villages.

A malaria death due to an imported Plasmodium falciparum infection in Sri Lanka during the prevention of re-establishment phase of malaria

BACKGROUND

Sri Lanka has maintained a rigorous programme to prevent the re-establishment of malaria ever since the disease was eliminated in October 2012. It includes efforts to sustain case surveillance to ensure early diagnosis and management of malaria. Yet, in April of 2023 the death occurred of an individual with imported malaria.

CASE PRESENTATION

The deceased was a 37-year-old Sri Lankan male who returned to Sri Lanka on the 10th of April after a business trip to several countries including Tanzania. He was febrile on arrival and consulted three Allopathic Medical Practitioners in succession in his home town in the Western Province of Sri Lanka, over a period of 5 days starting from the very day that he arrived in the country. Malaria was not tested for at any of these consultations and his clinical condition deteriorated. On the evening of 14th of April he was admitted to the medical intensive care unit of a major private hospital in the capital city of Colombo with multiple organ failure. There, on a request by the treating physician blood was tested for malaria and reported early the next morning as Plasmodium falciparum malaria with a high parasitaemia (> 10%). The patient died shortly after on the 15th of April before any anti-malarial medication was administered. The deceased had been a frequent business traveller to Africa, but with no past history of malaria. He had not taken chemoprophylaxis for malaria on this or previous travels to Africa.

DISCUSSION

The patient's P. falciparum infection progressed rapidly over 5 days of arriving in Sri Lanka leading to severe malaria without being diagnosed, despite him seeking healthcare from three different Medical Practitioners. Finally, a diagnosis of malaria was made on admission to an intensive care unit; the patient died before anti-malarial medicines were administered.

CONCLUSIONS

This first death due to severe P. falciparum malaria reported in Sri Lanka after elimination of the disease was due to the delay in diagnosing malaria.

Characterizing human movement patterns using GPS data loggers in an area of persistent malaria in Zimbabwe along the Mozambique border

BACKGROUND

Human mobility is a driver for the reemergence or resurgence of malaria and has been identified as a source of cross-border transmission. However, movement patterns are difficult to measure in rural areas where malaria risk is high. In countries with malaria elimination goals, it is essential to determine the role of mobility on malaria transmission to implement appropriate interventions.

METHODS

A study was conducted in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe, to investigate human movement patterns in an area of persistent transmission along the Mozambique border. Over 1 year, a convenience sample of 20 participants/month was recruited from active malaria surveillance cohorts to carry an IgotU^® GT-600 global positioning system (GPS) data logger during all daily activities. Consenting participants were tested for malaria at data logger distribution using rapid antigen diagnostic tests and completed a survey questionnaire. GPS data were analyzed using a trajectory analysis tool, and participant movement patterns were characterized throughout the study area and across the border into Mozambique using movement intensity maps, activity space plots, and statistical analyses.

RESULTS

From June 2016-May 2017, 184 participants provided movement tracks encompassing > 350,000 data points and nearly 8000 person-days. Malaria prevalence at logger distribution was 3.7%. Participants traveled a median of 2.8 km/day and spent a median of 4.6 h/day away from home. Movement was widespread within and outside the study area, with participants traveling up to 500 km from their homes. Indices of mobility were higher in the dry season than the rainy season (median km traveled/day = 3.5 vs. 2.2, P = 0.03), among male compared to female participants (median km traveled/day = 3.8 vs. 2.0, P = 0.0008), and among adults compared to adolescents (median total km traveled = 104.6 vs. 59.5, P = 0.05). Half of participants traveled outside the study area, and 30% traveled into Mozambique, including 15 who stayed in Mozambique overnight.

CONCLUSIONS

Study participants in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe, were highly mobile throughout the year. Many participants traveled long distances from home, including overnight trips into Mozambique, with clear implications for malaria control. Interventions targeted at mobile populations and cross-border transmission may be effective in preventing malaria introductions in this region.

Global Cross-Border Malaria Control Collaborative Initiatives: A Scoping Review

Malaria remains a global disease of public health concern. Malaria control collaborative initiatives are widely being adopted to reduce malaria burden by various countries. This review sought to describe current and past cross-border malaria control initiatives focusing on key activities, outcomes and challenges. An exhaustive search was conducted in Web of Science, PubMed, Google Scholar and EBSCOhost using the following key words: cross-border malaria control, cross-border malaria elimination, bi-national malaria control and multinational malaria control, in combination with Boolean operators "AND" and "OR". Eleven studies satisfied the inclusion criteria for this review. The majority of collaborative initiatives have been formed within regional developmental and continental bodies with support from political leadership. The studies revealed that joint vector control, cases management, epidemiological data sharing along border regions as well as resource sharing and capacity building are some of the key collaborative initiatives being implemented globally. Collaborative initiatives have led to significant reduction in malaria burden and mortality. The majority of collaborative initiatives are underfunded and rely on donor support. We concluded that cross-border malaria collaborative initiatives have the capacity to reduce malaria burden and mortality along border regions; however, inadequate internal funding and over-reliance on donor funding remain the biggest threats to the survival of collaborative initiatives.

A decade of travel-associated malaria at King Fahad Hospital of the University in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia

Travel-associated malaria is a health hazard, even in non-malaria endemic regions. This is a hospital-based retrospective study of 12,931 febrile patients who presented at King Fahad Hospital of the University (KFHU) from January 2009 to December 2019. Patients either returning from malaria endemic countries and/or for whom malaria was suspected, had blood films microscopically screened for malaria parasites. Malaria prevalence was very low in febrile patients attending KFHU. Out of the 12,931 febrile patients, 0.63% (n = 81) were malaria positive, all travel-related, except for one case of transfusion malaria. Indian nationals were the most infected (29.6%, n = 24), followed by Sudanese nationals (24.7%, n = 20). P. falciparum (47%, n = 38) and P. vivax (42%, n = 24) were the predominant species. The majority of P. falciparum (64.5%, n = 20) cases were from African nationals and the majority of P. vivax (72.7%, n = 24) cases were from Asia. The highest percentage of malaria patients were adult (90%, n = 73), males (85.2%, n = 69), ages ranged from 6 to 65, with a mean of 34.6 years. Most of the malaria cases presented at the emergency room (ER), only 3 required critical care. Only sex, hospitalized in-patient (IP) and attendance at ER were statistically associated with malaria. In the presence of a potential vector, travel-associated malaria in non-malaria endemic areas should be monitored to guide control strategies.

Author summary: Malaria is a neglected potentially fatal tropical mosquito-born disease. Travel-associated malaria is a health hazard, even in non-malaria endemic regions. In spite of previous efforts to estimate malaria prevalence, morbidity and mortality in Saudi Arabia in the last decade, there have been no studies that determine the prevalence of malaria in Al-Khobar, Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. Malaria prevalence was very low in febrile patients (81/12,931) attending King Fahad Hospital of the University over a decade. Cases were all travel-related, except for one case of transfusion malaria. Indian nationals were the most infected (29.6%), followed by Sudanese nationals (24.7%). P. falciparum (47%) and P. vivax (42%) were the predominant species. The majority of P. falciparum (64.5%) cases were from Africa and the majority of P. vivax (72.7%) cases were from Asia. No patient factors predicted malaria in febrile travelers. In non-malaria endemic areas, in the presence of a potential vector, patients with acute fever coming from endemic areas or having received blood transfusion, should be screened for travel-associated malaria to guide control strategies.

Infectious disease in an era of global change

The twenty-first century has witnessed a wave of severe infectious disease outbreaks, not least the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a devastating impact on lives and livelihoods around the globe. The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa and the 2015 Zika virus disease epidemic all resulted in substantial morbidity and mortality while spreading across borders to infect people in multiple countries. At the same time, the past few decades have ushered in an unprecedented era of technological, demographic and climatic change: airline flights have doubled since 2000, since 2007 more people live in urban areas than rural areas, population numbers continue to climb and climate change presents an escalating threat to society. In this Review, we consider the extent to which these recent global changes have increased the risk of infectious disease outbreaks, even as improved sanitation and access to health care have resulted in considerable progress worldwide.

Structuring of plant communities across agricultural landscape mosaics: the importance of connectivity and the scale of effect

Background

Plant communities of fragmented agricultural landscapes, are subject to patch isolation and scale-dependent effects. Variation in configuration, composition, and distance from one another affect biological processes of disturbance, productivity, and the movement ecology of species. However, connectivity and spatial structuring among these diverse communities are rarely considered together in the investigation of biological processes. Spatially optimised predictor variables that are based on informed measures of connectivity among communities, offer a solution to untangling multiple processes that drive biodiversity.

Results

To address the gap between theory and practice, a novel spatial optimisation method that incorporates hypotheses of community connectivity, was used to estimate the scale of effect of biotic and abiotic factors that distinguish plant communities. We tested: (1) whether different hypotheses of connectivity among sites was important to measuring diversity and environmental variation among plant communities; and (2) whether spatially optimised variables of species relative abundance and the abiotic environment among communities were consistent with diversity parameters in distinguishing four habitat types; namely Crop, Edge, Oak, and Wasteland. The global estimates of spatial autocorrelation, which did not consider environmental variation among sites, indicated significant positive autocorrelation under four hypotheses of landscape connectivity. The spatially optimised approach indicated significant positive and negative autocorrelation of species relative abundance at fine and broad scales, which depended on the measure of connectivity and environmental variation among sites.

Conclusions

These findings showed that variation in community diversity parameters does not necessarily correspond to underlying spatial structuring of species relative abundance. The technique used to generate spatially-optimised predictors is extendible to incorporate multiple variables of interest along with a priori hypotheses of landscape connectivity. Spatially-optimised variables with appropriate definitions of connectivity might be better than diversity parameters in explaining functional differences among communities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-021-01903-9.

Analysing human population movement data for malaria control and elimination

BACKGROUND

Human population movement poses a major obstacle to malaria control and elimination. With recent technological advances, a wide variety of data sources and analytical methods have been used to quantify human population movement (HPM) relevant to control and elimination of malaria.

METHODS

The relevant literature and selected studies that had policy implications that could help to design or target malaria control and elimination interventions were reviewed. These studies were categorized according to spatiotemporal scales of human mobility and the main method of analysis.

RESULTS

Evidence gaps exist for tracking routine cross-border HPM and HPM at a regional scale. Few studies accounted for seasonality. Out of twenty included studies, two studies which tracked daily neighbourhood HPM used descriptive analyses as the main method, while the remaining studies used statistical analyses or mathematical modelling.

CONCLUSION

Although studies quantified varying types of human population movement covering different spatial and temporal scales, methodological gaps remain that warrant further studies related to malaria control and elimination.

Assessing regional risk of COVID-19 infection from Wuhan via high-speed rail

This paper demonstrates that transportation networks may be used to assess and predict the regional risk of COVID-19 infection from the outbreak. We use China's high-speed rail (HSR) network at the scale of prefecture level to assess, based on a probabilistic risk model, the risk of COVID-19 infection from Wuhan to the country's 31 province-level regions at the early stage of domestic spread. We find that the high-risk regions are mainly distributed along the southern half of Beijing-Hong Kong HSR line, where a large number of infection cases have been confirmed at the early stage. Furthermore, the two components of the infection risk, namely, the probability (proxied by the region's correlation with Wuhan through HSR) and the impact (proxied by the region's population with mobility), can play different roles in the risk ranking for different regions. For public health administrators, these findings may be used for better decision making, including the preparation of emergency plans and supplies, and the allocation of limited resources, before the extensive spread of the epidemic. Moreover, the administrators should adopt different intervention measures for different regions, so as to better mitigate the epidemic spread according to their own risk scenarios with respect to the probability of occurring and, once occurred, the impact.

Using a participatory qualitative risk assessment to estimate the risk of introduction and spread of transboundary animal diseases in scarce-data environments: A Spatial Qualitative Risk Analysis applied to foot-and-mouth disease in Tunisia 2014-2019

This article presents a participative and iterative qualitative risk assessment framework that can be used to evaluate the spatial variation of the risk of infectious animal disease introduction and spread on a national scale. The framework was developed through regional training action workshops and field activities. The active involvement of national animal health services enabled the identification, collection and hierarchization of risk factors. Quantitative data were collected in the field, and expert knowledge was integrated to adjust the available data at regional level. Experts categorized and combined the risk factors into ordinal levels of risk per epidemiological unit to ease implementation of risk-based surveillance in the field. The framework was used to perform a qualitative assessment of the risk of introduction and spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Tunisia as part of a series of workshops held between 2015 and 2018. The experts in attendance combined risk factors such as epidemiological status, transboundary movements, proximity to the borders and accessibility to assess the risk of FMD outbreaks in Tunisia. Out of the 2,075 Tunisian imadas, 23 were at a very high risk of FMD introduction, mainly at the borders; and 59 were at a very high risk of FMD spread. To validate the model, the results were compared to the FMD outbreaks notified by Tunisia during the 2014 FMD epizootic. Using a spatial Poisson model, a significant alignment between the very high and high-risk categories of spread and the occurrence of FMD outbreaks was shown. The relative risk of FMD occurrence was thus 3.2 higher for imadas in the very high and high spread risk categories than for imadas in the low and negligible spread risk categories. Our results show that the qualitative risk assessment framework can be a useful decision support tool for risk-based disease surveillance and control, in particular in scarce-data environments.

Emergence and clonal expansion of in vitro artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum kelch13 R561H mutant parasites in Rwanda

Artemisinin resistance (delayed P. falciparum clearance following artemisinin-based combination therapy), is widespread across Southeast Asia but to date has not been reported in Africa^1–4. Here we genotyped the P. falciparum K13 (Pfkelch13) propeller domain, mutations in which can mediate artemisinin resistance^5,6, in pretreatment samples collected from recent dihydroarteminisin-piperaquine and artemether-lumefantrine efficacy trials in Rwanda⁷. While cure rates were >95% in both treatment arms, the Pfkelch13 R561H mutation was identified in 19 of 257 (7.4%) patients at Masaka. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the expansion of an indigenous R561H lineage. Gene editing confirmed that this mutation can drive artemisinin resistance in vitro. This study provides evidence for the de novo emergence of Pfkelch13-mediated artemisinin resistance in Rwanda, potentially compromising the continued success of antimalarial chemotherapy in Africa.

Identification in Rwanda of mutations in Plasmodium falciparum capable of conferring in vitro resistance to artemisinin, an essential medicine for the treatment of malaria, underscore the crucial need for surveillance in Africa to safeguard efficacy of life-saving therapies.

Imported Malaria in Countries where Malaria Is Not Endemic: a Comparison of Semi-immune and Nonimmune Travelers

The continuous increase in long-distance travel and recent large migratory movements have changed the epidemiological characteristics of imported malaria in countries where malaria is not endemic (here termed non-malaria-endemic countries). While malaria was primarily imported to nonendemic countries by returning travelers, the proportion of immigrants from malaria-endemic regions and travelers visiting friends and relatives (VFRs) in malaria-endemic countries has continued to increase. VFRs and immigrants from malaria-endemic countries now make up the majority of malaria patients in many nonendemic countries. Importantly, this group is characterized by various degrees of semi-immunity to malaria, resulting from repeated exposure to infection and a gradual decline of protection as a result of prolonged residence in non-malaria-endemic regions. Most studies indicate an effect of naturally acquired immunity in VFRs, leading to differences in the parasitological features, clinical manifestation, and odds for severe malaria and clinical complications between immune VFRs and nonimmune returning travelers. There are no valid data indicating evidence for differing algorithms for chemoprophylaxis or antimalarial treatment in semi-immune versus nonimmune malaria patients. So far, no robust biomarkers exist that properly reflect anti-parasite or clinical immunity. Until they are found, researchers should rigorously stratify their study results using surrogate markers, such as duration of time spent outside a malaria-endemic country.

Imported malaria cases: the connection with the European ex-colonies

Background

Imported malaria is increasing in non-endemic areas due to the increment of international travels, migration and, probably, other unknown factors. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of malaria cases in a region of Spain; analyse the possible association between the variables of interest; compare this series with others; and evaluate the characteristics of imported malaria cases according to the country of origin, particularly cases from Equatorial Guinea (Spanish ex-colony) and from the rest of sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

A descriptive observational study was carried out with a retrospective data collection of cases of malaria reported in Aragon from 1996 to 2017. Univariate and bivariate analysis of clinical–epidemiological variables was performed. In addition, an analysis of cases from sub-Saharan Africa was carried out using logistic regression, calculating odds ratio with its 95% confidence interval.

Results

609 cases of malaria were recorded in Aragon from 1996 to 2017. An autochthonous case in 2010. 50.33% were between 15 and 39 years old. 45.65% of the cases were notified of the 4-weeks 9 to 12. 82.6% reside in the main province, urban area, of which 65.4% were VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives), 23.8% new immigrants and 10.9% travellers. The infectious Plasmodium species par excellence was Plasmodium falciparum (88%). Analysing the cases from sub-Saharan Africa (95.2% of the total), 48.1% were from Equatorial Guinea. Comparing these with the cases from the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, it was observed that the cases from the Spanish ex-colony have association with the female gender, being under 5 years old, residing in the main province (urban area) and being a new immigrant.

Conclusions

The epidemiological profile of imported malaria cases can be defined as VFR between 15 and 39 years old, coming from sub-Saharan Africa, particularly from Equatorial Guinea. Immigrants education about the importance of chemoprophylaxis when travelling to visit friends and relatives, emphasizing on those who are originally from the ex-colonies of destination country, is necessary; as well as to raise awareness among health professionals to make advice in consultations, specially before summer vacations.

A global model for predicting the arrival of imported dengue infections

With approximately half of the world's population at risk of contracting dengue, this mosquito-borne disease is of global concern. International travellers significantly contribute to dengue's rapid and large-scale spread by importing the disease from endemic into non-endemic countries. To prevent future outbreaks and dengue from establishing in non-endemic countries, knowledge about the arrival time and location of infected travellers is crucial. We propose a network model that predicts the monthly number of dengue-infected air passengers arriving at any given airport. We consider international air travel volumes to construct weighted networks, representing passenger flows between airports. We further calculate the probability of passengers, who travel through the international air transport network, being infected with dengue. The probability of being infected depends on the destination, duration and timing of travel. Our findings shed light onto dengue importation routes and reveal country-specific reporting rates that have been until now largely unknown. This paper provides important new knowledge about the spreading dynamics of dengue that is highly beneficial for public health authorities to strategically allocate the often limited resources to more efficiently prevent the spread of dengue.

Predicting Risk of Imported Disease with Demographics: Geospatial Analysis of Imported Malaria in Minnesota, 2010-2014

Although immigrants who visit friends and relatives (VFRs) account for most of the travel-acquired malaria cases in the United States, there is limited evidence on community-level risk factors and best practices for prevention appropriate for various VFR groups. Using 2010–2014 malaria case reports, sociodemographic census data, and health services data, we explored and mapped community-level characteristics to understand who is at risk and where imported malaria infections occur in Minnesota. We examined associations with malaria incidence using Poisson and negative binomial regression. Overall, mean incidence was 0.4 cases per 1,000 sub-Saharan African (SSA)–born in communities reporting malaria, with cases concentrated in two areas of Minneapolis–St. Paul. We found moderate and positive associations between imported malaria and counts of SSA- and Asian-born populations, respectively. Our findings may inform future studies to understand the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of VFR travelers and facilitate and focus intervention strategies to reduce imported malaria in the United States.

The use of GPS data loggers to describe the impact of spatio-temporal movement patterns on malaria control in a high-transmission area of northern Zambia

Background

Human movement is a driver of malaria transmission and has implications for sustainable malaria control. However, little research has been done on the impact of fine-scale movement on malaria transmission and control in high-transmission settings. As interest in targeted malaria control increases, evaluations are needed to determine the appropriateness of these strategies in the context of human mobility across a variety of transmission settings.

Methods

A human mobility study was conducted in Nchelenge District, a high-transmission setting in northern Zambia. Over 1 year, 84 participants were recruited from active malaria surveillance cohorts to wear a global positioning system data logger for 1 month during all daily activity. Participants completed a survey questionnaire and underwent malaria testing and treatment at the time of logger distribution and at collection 1 month later. Incident malaria infections were identified using polymerase chain reaction. Participant movement was characterized throughout the study area and across areas targeted for an indoor residual spraying (IRS) intervention. Participant movement patterns were compared using movement intensity maps, activity space plots, and statistical analyses. Malaria risk was characterized across participants using spatial risk maps and time spent away from home during peak vector biting hours.

Results

Movement data were collected from 82 participants, and 63 completed a second study visit. Participants exhibited diverse mobility patterns across the study area, including movement into and out of areas targeted for IRS, potentially mitigating the impact of IRS on parasite prevalence. Movement patterns did not differ significantly by season or age, but male participants traveled longer distances and spent more time away from home. Monthly malaria incidence was 22%, and malaria risk was characterized as high across participants. Participants with incident parasitemia traveled a shorter distance and spent more time away from home during peak biting hours; however, these relationships were not statistically significant, and malaria risk score did not differ by incident parasitemia.

Conclusions

Individual movement patterns in Nchelenge District, Zambia have implications for malaria control, particularly the effectiveness of targeted IRS strategies. Large and fine-scale population mobility patterns should be considered when planning intervention strategies across transmission settings.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12942-019-0183-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Changing epidemiology and challenges of malaria in China towards elimination

Background

Historically, malaria had been a widespread disease in China. A national plan was launched in China in 2010, aiming to eliminate malaria by 2020. In 2017, no indigenous cases of malaria were detected in China for the first time. To provide evidence for precise surveillance and response to achieve elimination goal, a comprehensive study is needed to determine the changing epidemiology of malaria and the challenges towards elimination.

Methods

Using malaria surveillance data from 2011 to 2016, an integrated series of analyses was conducted to elucidate the changing epidemiological features of autochthonous and imported malaria, and the spatiotemporal patterns of malaria importation from endemic countries.

Results

From 2011 to 2016, a total of 21,062 malaria cases with 138 deaths were reported, including 91% were imported and 9% were autochthonous. The geographic distribution of local transmission have shrunk dramatically, but there were still more than 10 counties reporting autochthonous cases in 2013–2016, particularly in counties bordering with countries in South-East Asia. The importation from 68 origins countries had an increasing annual trend from Africa but decreasing importation from Southeast Asia. Four distinct communities have been identified in the importation networks with the destinations in China varied by origin and species.

Conclusions

China is on the verge of malaria elimination, but the residual transmission in border regions and the threats of importation from Africa and Southeast Asia are the key challenges to achieve and maintain malaria elimination. Efforts from China are also needed to help malaria control in origin countries and reduce the risk of introduced transmission.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-019-2736-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Are malaria elimination efforts on right track? An analysis of gains achieved and challenges ahead

Background

Malaria causes significant morbidity and mortality each year. In the past few years, the global malaria cases have been declining and many endemic countries are heading towards malaria elimination. Nevertheless, reducing the number of cases seems to be easy than sustained elimination. Therefore to achieve the objective of complete elimination and maintaining the elimination status, it is necessary to assess the gains made during the recent years.

Main text

With inclining global support and World Health Organisation (WHO) efforts, the control programmes have been implemented effectively in many endemic countries. Given the aroused interest and investments into malaria elimination programmes at global level, the ambitious goal of elimination appears feasible. Sustainable interventions have played a pivotal role in malaria contraction, however drug and insecticide resistance, social, demographic, cultural and behavioural beliefs and practices, and unreformed health infrastructure could drift back the progress attained so far. Ignoring such impeding factors coupled with certain region specific factors may jeopardise our ability to abide righteous track to achieve global elimination of malaria parasite. Although support beyond the territories is important, but well managed integrated vector management approach at regional and country level using scrupulously selected area specific interventions targeting both vector and parasite along with the community involvement is necessary. A brief incline in malaria during 2016 has raised fresh perturbation on whether elimination could be achieved on time or not.

Conclusions

The intervention tools available currently can most likely reduce transmission but clearing of malaria epicentres from where the disease can flare up any time, is not possible without involving local population. Nevertheless maintaining zero malaria transmission and checks on malaria import in declared malaria free countries, and further speeding up of interventions to stop transmission in elimination countries is most desirable. Strong collaboration backed by adequate political and financial support among the countries with a common objective to eliminate malaria must be on top priority. The present review attempts to assess the progress gained in malaria elimination during the past few years and highlights some issues that could be important in successful malaria elimination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-019-0524-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Humanized Mice Are Instrumental to the Study of Plasmodium falciparum Infection

Research using humanized mice has advanced our knowledge and understanding of human haematopoiesis, non-adaptive and adaptive immunity, autoimmunity, infectious disease, cancer biology, and regenerative medicine. Challenges posed by the human-malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum include its complex life cycle, the evolution of drug resistance against anti-malarials, poor diagnosis, and a lack of effective vaccines. Advancements in genetically engineered and immunodeficient mouse strains, have allowed for studies of the asexual blood stage, exoerythrocytic stage and the transition from liver-to-blood stage infection, in a single vertebrate host. This review discusses the process of "humanization" of various immunodeficient/transgenic strains and their contribution to translational biomedical research. Our work reviews the strategies employed to overcome the remaining-limitations of the developed human-mouse chimera(s).

Nationwide genetic surveillance of Plasmodium vivax in Papua New Guinea reveals heterogeneous transmission dynamics and routes of migration amongst subdivided populations

The Asia Pacific Leaders in Malaria Alliance (APLMA) have committed to eliminate malaria from the region by 2030. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has the highest malaria burden in the Asia-Pacific region but with the intensification of control efforts since 2005, transmission has been dramatically reduced and Plasmodium vivax is now the dominant malaria infection in some parts of the country. To gain a better understanding of the transmission dynamics and migration patterns of P. vivax in PNG, here we investigate population structure in eight geographically and ecologically distinct regions of the country. A total of 219 P. vivax isolates (16-30 per population) were successfully haplotyped using 10 microsatellite markers. A wide range of genetic diversity (H_e=0.37-0.87, R_s=3.60-7.58) and significant multilocus linkage disequilibrium (LD) was observed in six of the eight populations (I_A^S=0.08-0.15 p-value<0.05) reflecting a spectrum of transmission intensities across the country. Genetic differentiation between regions was evident (Jost's D=0.07-0.72), with increasing divergence of populations with geographic distance. Overall, P. vivax isolates clustered into three major genetic populations subdividing the Mainland lowland and coastal regions, the Islands and the Highlands. P. vivax gene flow follows major human migration routes, and there was higher gene flow amongst Mainland parasite populations than among Island populations. The Central Province (samples collected in villages close to the capital city, Port Moresby), acts as a sink for imported infections from the three major endemic areas. These insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics and population networks will inform targeted strategies to contain malaria infections and to prevent the spread of drug resistance in PNG.

Diagnostic performance of the loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) based illumigene® malaria assay in a non-endemic region

Background

Light microscopy and antigen-based rapid diagnostic tests are the primary diagnostic tools for detecting malaria, although being labour-intensive and frequently challenged by lack of personnel’s experience and low levels of parasite density. The latter being especially important in non-endemic settings. Novel molecular techniques aim to overcome this drawback. The objective of this study was to assess the diagnostic performance of the illumigene malaria assay^® (Meridian Bioscience) compared to microscopy, RDT and real-time PCR. This loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay is a qualitative in vitro diagnostic test for the direct detection of Plasmodium spp. DNA in human venous whole blood samples.

Methods

The illumigene assay was assessed on a retrospective panel of stored blood samples (n = 103) from returned travellers and external quality control samples (n = 12). Additionally the assay was prospectively assessed on 30 fresh routine samples with a request for malaria diagnosis. The illumigene assay was compared to microscopy, RDT and Plasmodium species specific real-time PCR.

Results

In the retrospective evaluation, the illumigene assay showed 100% agreement with the real-time PCR, RDT and microscopy yielding a sensitivity and specificity of 100% (95% CI 95.1–100% and 89.7–100%, respectively). Seven samples from patients recently treated for Plasmodium falciparum infection that were RDT positive and microscopy negative yielded positive test results. The performance of the illumigene assay equals that of microscopy combined with RDT in the prospective panel with three false negative RDT results and one false negative microscopy result. Excellent concordance with PCR was observed. The limit of detection of the assay approached 0.5 parasites/µL for both P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax.

Conclusion

In non-endemic regions where the diagnostic process for malaria infections is questioned by lack of experience and low levels of parasite densities, the illumigene assay can be of value. Due to its high sensitivity, the LAMP assay may be considered as primary diagnostic test. The results of this study indicate that negative screen results do not need further confirmation. However, before implementation, this approach needs to be confirmed in larger, prospective studies. A shortcoming of this assay is that no species identification nor determination of parasite density are possible.

What proportion of international travellers acquire a travel-related illness? A review of the literature

INTRODUCTION

As international travel increases, travellers may be at increased risk of acquiring infectious diseases not endemic in their home countries. Many journal articles and reference books related to travel medicine cite that between 22-64% of international travellers become ill during or after travel; however, this information is minimal, outdated and limited by poor generalizability. We aim to provide a current and more accurate estimate of the proportion of international travellers who acquire a travel-related illness.

METHODS

We identified studies via PubMed or travel medicine experts, published between January 1, 1976-December 31, 2016 that included the number of international travellers acquiring a travel-related illness. We excluded studies that focused on a single disease or did not determine a rate based on the total number of travellers. We abstracted information on traveller demographics, trip specifics, study enrollment and follow-up and number of ill travellers and their illnesses.

RESULTS

Of 743 studies, nine met the inclusion criteria. The data sources were from North America (four studies) and Europe (five studies). Most travellers were tourists, the most frequent destination regions were Asia and Africa, and the median trip duration ranged from 8-21 days. Six studies enrolled participants at the travellers' pre-travel consultation. All studies collected data through either extraction from the medical record, weekly diaries, or pre- and post-travel questionnaires. Data collection timeframes varied by study. Between 6-87% of travellers became ill across all studies. Four studies provided the best estimate: between 43-79% of travellers who frequently visited developing nations (e.g. India, Tanzania, and Kenya) became ill; travellers most frequently reported diarrhoea.

CONCLUSION

This is the most comprehensive assessment available on the proportion of international travellers that develop a travel-related illness. Additional cohort studies would provide needed data to more precisely determine the rates of illness in international travellers.

KEYWORDS

International travel, travel, illness.

Malaria after international travel: a GeoSentinel analysis, 2003-2016

BACKGROUND

More than 30,000 malaria cases are reported annually among international travellers. Despite improvements in malaria control, malaria continues to threaten travellers due to inaccurate perception of risk and sub-optimal pre-travel preparation.

METHODS

Records with a confirmed malaria diagnosis after travel from January 2003 to July 2016 were obtained from GeoSentinel, a global surveillance network of travel and tropical medicine providers that monitors travel-related morbidity. Records were excluded if exposure country was missing or unascertainable or if there was a concomitant acute diagnosis unrelated to malaria. Records were analyzed to describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of international travellers with malaria.

RESULTS

There were 5689 travellers included; 325 were children <18 years. More than half (53%) were visiting friends and relatives (VFRs). Most (83%) were exposed in sub-Saharan Africa. The median trip duration was 32 days (interquartile range 20-75); 53% did not have a pre-travel visit. More than half (62%) were hospitalized; children were hospitalized more frequently than adults (73 and 62%, respectively). Ninety-two per cent had a single Plasmodium species diagnosis, most frequently Plasmodium falciparum (4011; 76%). Travellers with P. falciparum were most frequently VFRs (60%). More than 40% of travellers with a trip duration ≤7 days had Plasmodium vivax. There were 444 (8%) travellers with severe malaria; 31 children had severe malaria. Twelve travellers died.

CONCLUSION

Malaria remains a serious threat to international travellers. Efforts must focus on preventive strategies aimed on children and VFRs, and chemoprophylaxis access and preventive measure adherence should be emphasized.

Malaria in China, 2011-2015: an observational study

Objective

To ascertain the trends and burden of malaria in China and the costs of interventions for 2011–2015.

Methods

We analysed the spatiotemporal and demographic features of locally transmitted and imported malaria cases using disaggregated surveillance data on malaria from 2011 to 2015, covering the range of dominant malaria vectors in China. The total and mean costs for malaria elimination were calculated by funding sources, interventions and population at risk.

Findings

A total of 17 745 malaria cases, including 123 deaths (0.7%), were reported in mainland China, with 15 840 (89%) being imported cases, mainly from Africa and south-east Asia. Almost all counties of China (2855/2858) had achieved their elimination goals by 2015, and locally transmitted cases dropped from 1469 cases in 2011 to 43 cases in 2015, mainly occurring in the regions bordering Myanmar where Anopheles minimus and An. dirus are the dominant vector species. A total of United States dollars (US$) 134.6 million was spent in efforts to eliminate malaria during 2011–2015, with US$ 57.2 million (43%) from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria and US$ 77.3 million (57%) from the Chinese central government. The mean annual investment (US$ 27 million) per person at risk (574 million) was US$ 0.05 (standard deviation: 0.03).

Conclusion

The locally transmitted malaria burden in China has decreased. The key challenge is to address the remaining local transmission, as well as to reduce imported cases from Africa and south-east Asia. Continued efforts and appropriate levels of investment are needed in the 2016–2020 period to achieve elimination.

Characterizing and quantifying human movement patterns using GPS data loggers in an area approaching malaria elimination in rural southern Zambia

In areas approaching malaria elimination, human mobility patterns are important in determining the proportion of malaria cases that are imported or the result of low-level, endemic transmission. A convenience sample of participants enrolled in a longitudinal cohort study in the catchment area of Macha Hospital in Choma District, Southern Province, Zambia, was selected to carry a GPS data logger for one month from October 2013 to August 2014. Density maps and activity space plots were created to evaluate seasonal movement patterns. Time spent outside the household compound during anopheline biting times, and time spent in malaria high- and low-risk areas, were calculated. There was evidence of seasonal movement patterns, with increased long-distance movement during the dry season. A median of 10.6% (interquartile range (IQR): 5.8-23.8) of time was spent away from the household, which decreased during anopheline biting times to 5.6% (IQR: 1.7-14.9). The per cent of time spent in malaria high-risk areas for participants residing in high-risk areas ranged from 83.2% to 100%, but ranged from only 0.0% to 36.7% for participants residing in low-risk areas. Interventions targeted at the household may be more effective because of restricted movement during the rainy season, with limited movement between high- and low-risk areas.

Malaria chemoprophylaxis: cross-sectional study of use among air travellers departing from Accra, Ghana

Background

Malaria is the most common life-threatening infectious disease among travellers and chemoprophylaxis is recommended. The overall effectiveness, medication types and cost of malaria chemoprophylaxis in Accra are not well documented. This study investigated the use of chemoprophylaxis for malaria prevention in air travellers departing from Kotoka International Airport (KIA) in Accra, Ghana.

Materials and methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted in the departure lounge of the KIA between February and May 2012. A total of 424 respondents voluntarily completed a semi-structured questionnaire, which included socio-demographic characteristics, duration of stay, nationality, country of permanent residence, chemoprophylaxis used, number of doses missed, cost and side effects experienced, and cost of treatment.

Results

The mean age of respondents was 37 ± 0.84 years with a male:female ratio of 1.2:1.The mean duration of stay in Ghana was 47.9 days [SD 56.8] and 73.5% had made one trip to the country in the preceding year. Of the respondents, 50.7% were from Europe, 24.1% from North America and 17.5% from Africa. The most popular malaria prevention method used was prophylactics (37%) with atovaquone/proguanil used most frequently (34.9%), followed by mefloquine (11.6%) and doxycycline (7.8%). Compliance was high: 73.8% of respondents did not miss a single dose. The most commonly reported side effects were dreams, abdominal discomfort and headaches. Malaria incidence was 7.1% with 80% of them receiving treatment in a hospital or clinic; incurring a cost of up to $30 to treat a person.

Conclusions

Most air travellers from Accr a take atovaquone/pr oguanil. Malaria incidence was low and most travellers were compliant with their chemoprophylaxis with very few side effects. The cost of chemoprophylaxis is low and is thus recommended for all travellers to Accra, Ghana.

The geography of imported malaria to non-endemic countries: a meta-analysis of nationally reported statistics

BACKGROUND

Malaria remains a problem for many countries classified as malaria free through cases imported from endemic regions. Imported cases to non-endemic countries often result in delays in diagnosis, are expensive to treat, and can sometimes cause secondary local transmission. The movement of malaria in endemic countries has also contributed to the spread of drug resistance and threatens long-term eradication goals. Here we focused on quantifying the international movements of malaria to improve our understanding of these phenomena and facilitate the design of mitigation strategies.

METHODS

In this meta-analysis, we studied the database of publicly available nationally reported statistics on imported malaria in the past 10 years, covering more than 50 000 individual cases. We obtained data from 40 non-endemic countries and recorded the geographical variations.

FINDINGS

Infection movements were strongly skewed towards a small number of high-traffic routes between 2005 and 2015, with the west Africa region accounting for 56% (13 947/24 941) of all imported cases to non-endemic countries with a reported travel destination, and France and the UK receiving the highest number of cases, with more than 4000 reported cases per year on average. Countries strongly linked by movements of imported cases are grouped by historical, language, and travel ties. There is strong spatial clustering of plasmodium species types.

INTERPRETATION

The architecture of the air network, historical ties, demographics of travellers, and malaria endemicity contribute to highly heterogeneous patterns of numbers, routes, and species compositions of parasites transported. With global malaria eradication on the international agenda, malaria control altering local transmission, and the threat of drug resistance, understanding these patterns and their drivers is increasing in importance.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institutes of Health, UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust.

Plasmodium falciparum malaria importation from Africa to China and its mortality: an analysis of driving factors

Plasmodium falciparum malaria importation from Africa to China is rising with increasing Chinese overseas investment and international travel. Identifying networks and drivers of this phenomenon as well as the contributors to high case-fatality rate is a growing public health concern to enable efficient response. From 2011-2015, 8653 P. falciparum cases leading to 98 deaths (11.3 per 1000 cases) were imported from 41 sub-Saharan countries into China, with most cases (91.3%) occurring in labour-related Chinese travellers. Four strongly connected groupings of origin African countries with destination Chinese provinces were identified, and the number of imported cases was significantly associated with the volume of air passengers to China (P = 0.006), parasite prevalence in Africa (P < 0.001), and the amount of official development assistance from China (P < 0.001) with investment in resource extraction having the strongest relationship with parasite importation. Risk factors for deaths from imported cases were related to the capacity of malaria diagnosis and diverse socioeconomic factors. The spatial heterogeneity uncovered, principal drivers explored, and risk factors for mortality found in the rising rates of P. falciparum malaria importation to China can serve to refine malaria elimination strategies and the management of cases, and high risk groups and regions should be targeted.

Mapping internal connectivity through human migration in malaria endemic countries

Human mobility continues to increase in terms of volumes and reach, producing growing global connectivity. This connectivity hampers efforts to eliminate infectious diseases such as malaria through reintroductions of pathogens, and thus accounting for it becomes important in designing global, continental, regional, and national strategies. Recent works have shown that census-derived migration data provides a good proxy for internal connectivity, in terms of relative strengths of movement between administrative units, across temporal scales. To support global malaria eradication strategy efforts, here we describe the construction of an open access archive of estimated internal migration flows in endemic countries built through pooling of census microdata. These connectivity datasets, described here along with the approaches and methods used to create and validate them, are available both through the WorldPop website and the WorldPop Dataverse Repository.

Infectious Risks of Air Travel

Infectious diseases are still among the leading causes of death worldwide due to their persistence, emergence, and reemergence. As the recent Ebola virus disease and MERS-CoV outbreaks demonstrate, the modern epidemics and large-scale infectious outbreaks emerge and spread quickly. Air transportation is a major vehicle for the rapid spread and dissemination of communicable diseases, and there have been a number of reported outbreaks of serious airborne diseases aboard commercial flights including tuberculosis, severe acute respiratory syndrome, influenza, smallpox, and measles, to name a few. In 2014 alone, over 3.3 billion passengers (a number equivalent to 42% of the world population) and 50 million metric tons of cargo traveled by air from 41,000 airports and 50,000 routes worldwide, and significant growth is anticipated, with passenger numbers expected to reach 5.9 billion by 2030. Given the increasing numbers of travelers, the risk of infectious disease transmission during air travel is a significant concern, and this chapter focuses on the current knowledge about transmission of infectious diseases in the context of both transmissions within the aircraft passenger cabin and commercial aircraft serving as vehicles of worldwide infection spread.

International Air Travel to Ohio, USA, and the Impact on Malaria, Influenza, and Hepatitis A

The State of Ohio led the United States in measles in 2014, ostensibly related to international air travel (IAT), and ranked lower than 43 other states in infectious disease outbreak preparedness. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using surveillance data of the total Ohio population of 11 million from 2010 through 2014 with a nested case control of air travelers to determine the risk of malaria, seasonal influenza hospitalizations (IH), and hepatitis A (HA) disease related to international travel and to estimate the association with domestic enplanement. IAT appeared protective for HA and IH with a risk of 0.031 (.02-.04) but for malaria was 2.7 (2.07-3.62). Enplanement increased the risk for nonendemic M 3.5 (2.5-4.9) and for HA and IH 1.39 (1.34-1.44). IAT's ratio of relative risk (RRR) of malaria to HA and IH was 87.1 (55.8-136) greater than 219 times versus domestic enplanement which was protective for malaria at 0.397 (0.282-0.559). Malaria is correlated with IAT with cases increasing by 6.9 for every 10,000 passports issued.

Measuring the potential of individual airports for pandemic spread over the world airline network

Background

Massive growth in human mobility has dramatically increased the risk and rate of pandemic spread. Macro-level descriptors of the topology of the World Airline Network (WAN) explains middle and late stage dynamics of pandemic spread mediated by this network, but necessarily regard early stage variation as stochastic. We propose that much of this early stage variation can be explained by appropriately characterizing the local network topology surrounding an outbreak’s debut location.

Methods

Based on a model of the WAN derived from public data, we measure for each airport the expected force of infection (AEF) which a pandemic originating at that airport would generate, assuming an epidemic process which transmits from airport to airport via scheduled commercial flights. We observe, for a subset of world airports, the minimum transmission rate at which a disease becomes pandemically competent at each airport. We also observe, for a larger subset, the time until a pandemically competent outbreak achieves pandemic status given its debut location. Observations are generated using a highly sophisticated metapopulation reaction-diffusion simulator under a disease model known to well replicate the 2009 influenza pandemic. The robustness of the AEF measure to model misspecification is examined by degrading the underlying model WAN.

Results

AEF powerfully explains pandemic risk, showing correlation of 0.90 to the transmission level needed to give a disease pandemic competence, and correlation of 0.85 to the delay until an outbreak becomes a pandemic. The AEF is robust to model misspecification. For 97 % of airports, removing 15 % of airports from the model changes their AEF metric by less than 1 %.

Conclusions

Appropriately summarizing the size, shape, and diversity of an airport’s local neighborhood in the WAN accurately explains much of the macro-level stochasticity in pandemic outcomes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1350-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Malaria in a tertiary hospital in Singapore--clinical presentation, treatment and outcome: an eleven year retrospective review

BACKGROUND

Malaria remains a global health threat and poses significant health risks even in non-endemic regions like Singapore.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 214 patients with smear-positive malaria treated at Singapore General Hospital (SGH) between year 2000 and 2010.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixty-seven (78%) patients were male; median age was 35 y (range, 25–52 y). Sixty-four (41%) patients had past history of treated malaria. Seven (4.9%) patients did not travel out of Singapore. One hundred and twenty-seven (76.5%) cases of malaria were acquired in Southeast Asia (SEA) and the Indian subcontinent. There were 127 (59.3%) Plasmodium vivax, 83 (38.8%) Plasmodium falciparum, 1 (0.3%) Plasmodium malariae and 3 (1.4%) mixed infections. Fever was the most common symptom and thrombocytopaenia was the most common laboratory finding. There were 43 severe and 171 uncomplicated cases of malaria, including 8 severe P. vivax cases. Those with severe malaria were older, stayed longer in hospital, had a higher percentage parasitaemia and took longer to clear the parasite. The diagnosis of malaria was suspected at the first contact with healthcare provider in 194 (91.9%) cases. Sixty-one (85.9%) patients with P. falciparum infection received combination anti-malarial therapy and 109 (98.2%) of patients with P. vivax received primaquine for hypnozoite clearance in combination with schizontocidal agent. All the patients survived.

CONCLUSION

In this study, P. vivax was the most common cause of malaria. Severe P. vivax was not uncommon. Cryptic transmission of malaria exists, highlighting the importance of continued vigilance, malaria surveillance and vector control. Early recognition of malaria improved the overall outcome.

Geo-Located Tweets. Enhancing Mobility Maps and Capturing Cross-Border Movement

Capturing human movement patterns across political borders is difficult and this difficulty highlights the need to investigate alternative data streams. With the advent of smart phones and the ability to attach accurate coordinates to Twitter messages, users leave a geographic digital footprint of their movement when posting tweets. In this study we analyzed 10 months of geo-located tweets for Kenya and were able to capture movement of people at different temporal (daily to periodic) and spatial (local, national to international) scales. We were also able to capture both long and short distances travelled, highlighting regional connections and cross-border movement between Kenya and the surrounding countries. The findings from this study has broad implications for studying movement patterns and mapping inter/intra-region movement dynamics.

Infection importation: a key challenge to malaria elimination on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

Background

The impact of importation of falciparum malaria from mainland Equatorial Guinea on malaria infection in non-travellers and travellers on Bioko Island was examined.

Methods

Malaria indicator surveys were conducted in 2013 and 2014 to assess the association between malaria infection and travel to the mainland. Infection in non-travellers was compared in neighbourhoods of high travel and neighbourhoods of low travel. Boat passengers leaving from and arriving on the island were tested for infection.

Results

Children who had travelled to the mainland in the previous eight weeks were at greater risk of infection than those who had not travelled (56 vs 26% in 2013; 42 vs 18% in 2014). Children who had not travelled, living in localities with the highest proportion of travellers, were significantly more likely to be infected compared to those in localities with the smallest proportion of travellers (adjusted odds ratios 7.7 (95% CI 2.3-25) and 5.3 (95% CI 2.5-11) in 2013 and 2014, respectively). Infection in arriving boat passengers was substantially higher than in those departing (70 vs 38%, p = 0.017).

Discussion

Malaria importation by travellers poses a serious public health challenge affecting non-travellers as well as travellers.

Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976-2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.

Mapping population and pathogen movements

For most of human history, populations have been relatively isolated from each other, and only recently has there been extensive contact between peoples, flora and fauna from both old and new worlds. The reach, volume and speed of modern travel are unprecedented, with human mobility increasing in high income countries by over 1000-fold since 1800. This growth is putting people at risk from the emergence of new strains of familiar diseases, and from completely new diseases, while ever more cases of the movement of both disease vectors and the diseases they carry are being seen. Pathogens and their vectors can now move further, faster and in greater numbers than ever before. Equally however, we now have access to the most detailed and comprehensive datasets on human mobility and pathogen distributions ever assembled, in order to combat these threats. This short review paper provides an overview of these datasets, with a particular focus on low income regions, and covers briefly approaches used to combine them to help us understand and control some of the negative effects of population and pathogen movements.

The demographics of human and malaria movement and migration patterns in East Africa

Introduction

The quantification of parasite movements can provide valuable information for control strategy planning across all transmission intensities. Mobile parasite carrying individuals can instigate transmission in receptive areas, spread drug resistant strains and reduce the effectiveness of control strategies. The identification of mobile demographic groups, their routes of travel and how these movements connect differing transmission zones, potentially enables limited resources for interventions to be efficiently targeted over space, time and populations.

Methods

National population censuses and household surveys provide individual-level migration, travel, and other data relevant for understanding malaria movement patterns. Together with existing spatially referenced malaria data and mathematical models, network analysis techniques were used to quantify the demographics of human and malaria movement patterns in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Movement networks were developed based on connectivity and magnitudes of flow within each country and compared to assess relative differences between regions and demographic groups. Additional malaria-relevant characteristics, such as short-term travel and bed net use, were also examined.

Results

Patterns of human and malaria movements varied between demographic groups, within country regions and between countries. Migration rates were highest in 20–30 year olds in all three countries, but when accounting for malaria prevalence, movements in the 10–20 year age group became more important. Different age and sex groups also exhibited substantial variations in terms of the most likely sources, sinks and routes of migration and malaria movement, as well as risk factors for infection, such as short-term travel and bed net use.

Conclusion

Census and survey data, together with spatially referenced malaria data, GIS and network analysis tools, can be valuable for identifying, mapping and quantifying regional connectivities and the mobility of different demographic groups. Demographically-stratified HPM and malaria movement estimates can provide quantitative evidence to inform the design of more efficient intervention and surveillance strategies that are targeted to specific regions and population groups.