Modeling the impact of prevention policies on future diabetes prevalence in the United States: 2010-2030

Exploring the association between type 2 diabetes and fecal incontinence in american adults: insights from a large cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The relationship between fecal incontinence (FI) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been well recognized, but a comprehensive understanding of this relationship is lacking, taking into account demographic factors and lifestyle variables.

METHODS

Using a cross-sectional approach, 13,510 adults aged 20 years and older were identified from the 2005-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to calculate the adjusted odds ratios (ORs), and further subgroup analyses and propensity score analysis were performed to ensure stable results.

RESULTS

Among 13,510 adults, 11.2% had T2D, and 8.8% had FI. We found a strong T2D-FI link (OR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.09-1.54, P < 0.001), even after adjusting for covariates. Age > 45 was a critical factor, with a stronger T2D-FI association. Sedentary behavior (OR: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.15-1.73) in T2D patients were associated with FI.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the significant T2D-FI link in US adults, especially in older T2D patients. Lifestyle changes may reduce FI risk. More research is needed for causality and mechanisms.

Racial Disparities in Evidence-Based Management of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To assess frequency of evidence-based management (EBM) of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), and to examine for racial/ethnic disparities in the receipt of EBM.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of patients with T2D and presumptive MASLD in an academic health care system between 2019 and 2021. Presumptive MASLD was defined as at least 1 alanine aminotransferase value ≥30 U/L with exclusions for alcohol overuse, viral hepatitis, liver transplantation, chemotherapy use, and liver disease other than MASLD. We calculated the proportion of patients receiving EBM, defined as a composite of liver ultrasound, transient elastography, or hepatology evaluation. We also examined the association between race/ethnicity and EBM via a logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Our sample included 6532 patients; mean age was 58.0 (SD 13.1), 41.7% were female and 3.9%, 26.6%, 58.7%, and 5.8% were of Latino/a/x ethnicity, non-Latino (NL) Black race, NL White race, and NL Asian race, respectively. Rates of EBM were low overall (11.5%), with lower odds of EBM in NL Black versus NL White patients (adjusted odds ratio 0.75; 95% confidence interval 0.59, 0.96). Odds of hepatology evaluation and placement of MASLD diagnosis codes were also lower in NL Black versus NL White patients.

CONCLUSION

Racial disparities exist in the receipt of EBM among patients with T2D and presumptive MASLD. These findings highlight the need for research to identify drivers of disparities, and to support development of clinical interventions that equitably facilitate EBM of MASLD in patients with T2D.

Projection of diabetes morbidity and mortality till 2045 in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD prevention and control programs

Diabetes Mellitus is one of the biggest health problems in Indonesia but the research on the disease's projection is still limited. This study aimed to make a projection model of prevalence and mortality of diabetes in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD programs. The study was a quantitative non-experimental study through multiple linear regression models and system dynamics. The baseline projection was created by 2018 data and projections until 2045 involved the dynamization of risk factors and programs, population, and case fatality rate. The model was created from 205 districts data. This study used secondary data from Basic Health Research, BPJS Kesehatan, NCD programs, and Ministry of Health. The prevalence of diabetes in Indonesia is estimated to increase from 9.19% in 2020 (18.69 million cases) to 16.09% in 2045 (40.7 million cases). The prevalence will be lower to 15.68% (39.6 million) if interventions of programs were carried out, and to 9.22% (23.2 million) if the programs were added with prevention of risk factors. The projected number of deaths due to diabetes increases from 433,752 in 2020 to 944,468 in 2045. Deaths due to stroke among diabetes increases from 52,397 to 114,092 in the same period. Deaths from IHD among diabetes increase from 35,351 to 76,974, and deaths from chronic kidney disease among diabetes increase from 29,061 to 63,279. Diabetes prevalence and mortality in Indonesia rise significantly in Indonesia and can be reduced by intervention of several programs and risk factors. This study findings could be source of planning and evaluation of Diabetes prevention and control program at national and provincial level in the future related to risk factors control and program development.

A three-month physical training program improves cardiovascular autonomic function in patients with metabolic syndrome with and without diabetes - a pilot study

Introduction

Vascular complications and neuropathy may develop in the presence of metabolic syndrome. The aim of our study was to measure the cardiovascular autonomic function following physical training in patients with metabolic syndrome with and without diabetes.

Subjects and methods

56 patients with metabolic syndrome (32 men/24 women, 40 non-diabetic patients (NDMetS)/16 diabetic patients (DMetS) [mean ± SD]: age: 50.35 ± 8.03 vs. 56.8 ± 9.30 years, p=0.023; baseline BMI: 32.2 ± 7.03 vs. 32.8 ± 5.94 kg/m2, p=0.739) were involved in our study. All tests and measurements were carried out before and following a 3-month physical training period. Autonomic function was assessed by means of five standard cardiovascular reflex tests. ECG repolarization parameters, including short-term QT variability and stress-ECG were also measured.

Results

In the whole population, Valsalva-ratio (VR) and the autonomic score (AS) improved following training (VR: 1.49 ± 0.24 vs. 1.64 ± 0.34, p=0.001; AS: 2.05 ± 1.73 vs. 1.41 ± 1.36, p=0.015) accompanied by the significant decrease of the systolic (150.3 ± 16.12 vs. 134.1 ± 16.67 mmHg, p<0.001) and diastolic (90.64 ± 12.8 vs. 82.79 ± 11.1 mmHg, p<0.001) blood pressure. An improvement in VR was detected in NDMetS patients following training (1.51 ± 0.24 vs. 1.67 ± 0.31, p= 0.002). No significant changes could be detected in autonomic tests' results in the DMetS patient group following training. The applied exercise training program did not lead to significant changes in ECG repolarization. The stress-ECG test in the whole study population yielded a significant increase in the test duration (12.9 ± 3.76 vs. 15.1 ± 2.96 min, p<0.001) and in the test load (10.5 ± 2.78 vs. 11.6 ± 2.39 MET, p<0.001). The load capability improved significantly in both subgroups: 11.1 ± 2.04 vs. 12.1 ± 1.82, (p<0.001) and 9.0 ± 3.64 vs. 10.4 ± 3.05, (p=0.033) in subpopulations of NDMetS and DMetS, respectively. The DMetS patients achieved a significantly lower MET score at baseline (p=0.039) and following training (p=0.044) in comparison to the NDMetS patients.

Conclusion

The three-month exercise program improved the Valsalva-ratio and the AN score in the MetS patients, that is potentially protective against cardiovascular events. The training had some beneficial effect on blood pressure and the results of the stress-ECG tests in both groups. The absence of significant change in the reflex tests in DMetS group reflects an impaired adaptation compared to the NDMestS group.

Revision and Psychometric Evaluation of the Diabetes Knowledge Questionnaire for People With Type 2 Diabetes

Objective

Diabetes knowledge is associated with health, including lower A1C levels. The Diabetes Knowledge Questionnaire (DKQ-24), developed 30 years ago for Mexican Americans with type 2 diabetes and since used with diverse samples in many countries, contains outdated items that no longer accurately assess current knowledge needed for diabetes self-management. We revised the DKQ-24 and tested psychometric properties of the DKQ-Revised (DKQ-R) with a diverse sample.

Methods

We conducted a five-phase instrumentation study as follows: 1) DKQ-24 items were revised to reflect current diabetes care standards; 2) the Delphi method was used to evaluate the DKQ-R's content validity (n = 5 experts); 3) cognitive interviews were conducted with people with type 2 diabetes (n = 5) to assess their interpretations of DKQ-R items; 4) cross-sectional administration of the DKQ-R to adults with type 2 diabetes was carried out to assess internal consistency reliability and convergent validity; and 5) an item analysis was conducted using discrimination index and point biserial analysis.

Results

After receiving the experts' feedback and conducting the cognitive interviews, 39 items were administered to 258 participants with type 2 diabetes (42.2% women; 29.1% Latino, 42.6% Asian, mean age 55.7 years). To select the final items, we considered the item discrimination index, as well as item-to-total correlations, content area, and participant feedback. The final 22-item DKQ-R uses the same yes/no/I don't know response format as the DKQ-24. The DKQ-R is strongly correlated with the DKQ-24 (r = 0.71, P <0.01) and is weakly correlated with diabetes numeracy (r = 0.23, P <0.01), indicating adequate convergent validity; a Kuder-Richardson-20 coefficient of 0.77 indicated good reliability.

Conclusion

The DKQ-R is a reliable and valid updated measure of diabetes knowledge for diverse populations with type 2 diabetes.

Development and validation of a trans-ancestry polygenic risk score for type 2 diabetes in diverse populations

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a worldwide scourge caused by both genetic and environmental risk factors that disproportionately afflicts communities of color. Leveraging existing large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS), polygenic risk scores (PRS) have shown promise to complement established clinical risk factors and intervention paradigms, and improve early diagnosis and prevention of T2D. However, to date, T2D PRS have been most widely developed and validated in individuals of European descent. Comprehensive assessment of T2D PRS in non-European populations is critical for equitable deployment of PRS to clinical practice that benefits global populations.

METHODS

We integrated T2D GWAS in European, African, and East Asian populations to construct a trans-ancestry T2D PRS using a newly developed Bayesian polygenic modeling method, and assessed the prediction accuracy of the PRS in the multi-ethnic Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) study (11,945 cases; 57,694 controls), four Black cohorts (5137 cases; 9657 controls), and the Taiwan Biobank (4570 cases; 84,996 controls). We additionally evaluated a post hoc ancestry adjustment method that can express the polygenic risk on the same scale across ancestrally diverse individuals and facilitate the clinical implementation of the PRS in prospective cohorts.

RESULTS

The trans-ancestry PRS was significantly associated with T2D status across the ancestral groups examined. The top 2% of the PRS distribution can identify individuals with an approximately 2.5-4.5-fold of increase in T2D risk, which corresponds to the increased risk of T2D for first-degree relatives. The post hoc ancestry adjustment method eliminated major distributional differences in the PRS across ancestries without compromising its predictive performance.

CONCLUSIONS

By integrating T2D GWAS from multiple populations, we developed and validated a trans-ancestry PRS, and demonstrated its potential as a meaningful index of risk among diverse patients in clinical settings. Our efforts represent the first step towards the implementation of the T2D PRS into routine healthcare.

Predicting demand for long-term care using Japanese healthcare insurance claims data

BACKGROUND

Driven by the rapid aging of the population, Japan introduced public long-term care insurance to reinforce healthcare services for the elderly in 2000. Precisely predicting future demand for long-term care services helps authorities to plan and manage their healthcare resources and citizens to prevent their health status deterioration.

METHODS

This paper presents our novel study for developing an effective model to predict individual-level future long-term care demand using previous healthcare insurance claims data. We designed two discriminative models and subsequently trained and validated the models using three learning algorithms with medical and long-term care insurance claims and enrollment records, which were provided by 170 regional public insurers in Gifu, Japan.

RESULTS

The prediction model based on multiclass classification and gradient-boosting decision tree achieved practically high accuracy (weighted average of Precision, 0.872; Recall, 0.878; and F-measure, 0.873) for up to 12 months after the previous claims. The top important feature variables were indicators of current health status (e.g., current eligibility levels and age), risk factors to worsen future healthcare status (e.g., dementia), and preventive care services for improving future healthcare status (e.g., training and rehabilitation).

CONCLUSIONS

The intensive validation tests have indicated that the developed prediction method holds high robustness, even though it yields relatively lower accuracy for specific patient groups with health conditions that are hard to distinguish.

Diabetes prevalence and complication rates: In individual First Nations communities in the Sioux Lookout region of Ontario

OBJECTIVE

To test the feasibility of reporting diabetes indicators at a regional and community level in order to provide feedback to local leaders on health system performance.

DESIGN

Analysis of administrative data from hospital discharges and physician billings.

SETTING

Sioux Lookout region of Ontario.

PARTICIPANTS

Residents from 30 remote communities served by the Sioux Lookout First Nations Health Authority.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence and prevalence of diabetes and incidence of diabetes complications, including heart attack, stroke, retinopathy, amputations, end-stage kidney disease, diabetes-related hospitalizations, and death.

RESULTS

Data were available for 18 542 residents from the 30 remote communities. Residents were almost entirely of First Nations descent. The prevalence of diabetes was 12.9%, the annual incidence was 1.0%, and the annual rate of complications was 5.4% in 2015-2016. Prevalence increased slightly over time. We had sufficient data to report prevalence in 25 of 30 communities (average population 738; range 234 to 2626). We reported statistically significant differences in prevalence by community; 8 were above average and 2 were below average. For diabetes complications, data were pooled over 5 years, and while community-level results could be reported, the variance was too high to allow detection of significant differences. Using 2-tailed t tests for difference of proportions, we determined that grouping communities into subregions of approximately 2000 persons would permit the detection of differences of 30% from the average 5-year complication rate.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates the possibility of reporting diabetes prevalence by individual First Nations reserve communities. Complication rates can be reported by individual community, but estimates are more useful for comparison if the smallest communities are grouped together. Such studies could be replicated across Canada to promote local use of these data for resource planning and monitoring long-term progress of diabetes programs and services.

A simulation study of the economic and health impact of a diabetes prevention programme in Ireland

AIMS

Type 2 diabetes is a major public health issue that has a large effect on society including its health and social services. The aims of this paper are to generate a projection of the number of cases and explore the potential impact of a preventive intervention targeted at people with pre-diabetes on disease prevalence, complications, mortality and cost.

METHODS

A Markov simulation model of diabetes and pre-diabetes in Ireland, for the period 1991 to 2036, was generated based on international epidemiological data. The simulation was calibrated with the available Irish data on the prevalence of pre-diabetes, diabetes and diabetic complications. The economic and health impact of a hypothetical nationwide preventive intervention programme, which reduces the incidence by a factor consistent with the international literature, was estimated under three scenarios of alternative effectiveness and uptake.

RESULTS

The estimated number of people over 40 years of age with type 2 diabetes in Ireland is projected to increase from 216,000 in 2020 to 414,000 in 2036. A prevention programme, based on the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme, is estimated to result in a reduction of between 2000 (0.5%) and 19,000 (4.6%) in the number of prevalent cases of diabetes in 2036 resulting in substantial health and quality of life benefits.

CONCLUSIONS

A wide range of initiatives with uncertain outcomes will be required to reduce the impact of obesity and type 2 diabetes. A diabetes prevention programme seems likely to be worth pursuing as one element of this set of initiatives.

Implementing Lifestyle Change Interventions to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes in US Medicaid Programs: Cost Effectiveness, and Cost, Health, and Health Equity Impact

BACKGROUND

Lifestyle change interventions (LCI) for prevention of type 2 diabetes are covered by Medicare, but rarely by US Medicaid programs that constitute the largest public payer system in the USA. We estimate the long-term health and economic implications of implementing LCIs in state Medicaid programs.

METHODS

We compared LCIs modeled after the intervention of the Diabetes Prevention Program versus routine care advice using a decision analytic simulation model and best available data from representative surveys, cohort studies, Medicaid claims data, and the published literature. Target population were non-disability-based adult Medicaid beneficiaries aged 19-64 years at high risk for type 2 diabetes (BMI ≥25 kg/m² and HbA1c ≥ 5.7% or fasting plasma glucose ≥ 110 mg/dl) from eight study states (Alabama, California, Connecticut, Florida, Iowa, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma) that represent around 50% of the US Medicaid population. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) measured in cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and population cost and health impact were modeled from a healthcare system perspective and a narrow Medicaid perspective.

RESULTS

In the eight selected study states, 1.9 million or 18% of non-disability-based adult Medicaid beneficiaries would belong to the eligible high-risk target population - 66% of them Hispanics or non-Hispanic black. In the base-case analysis, the aggregated 5- and 10-year ICERs are US$226 k/QALY and US$34 k/QALY; over 25 years, the intervention dominates routine care. The 5-, 10-, and 25-year probabilities that the ICERs are below US$50 k (US$100 k)/QALY are 6% (15%), 59% (82%) and 96% (100%). From a healthcare system perspective, initial program investments of US$800 per person would be offset after 13 years and translate to US$548 of savings after 25 years. With a 20% LCI uptake in eligible beneficiaries, this would translate to upfront costs of US$300 million, prevent 260 thousand years of diabetes and save US$205 million over a 25-year time horizon. Cost savings from a narrow Medicaid perspective would be much smaller. Minorities and low-income groups would over-proportionally benefit from LCIs in Medicaid, but the impact on population health and health equity would be marginal.

CONCLUSIONS

In the long-term, investments in LCIs for Medicaid beneficiaries are likely to improve health and to decrease healthcare expenditures. However, population health and health equity impact would be low and healthcare expenditure savings from a narrow Medicaid perspective would be much smaller than from a healthcare system perspective.

Study protocol: Using peer support to aid in prevention and treatment in prediabetes (UPSTART)

BACKGROUND

There is an urgent need to develop and evaluate effective and scalable interventions to prevent or delay the onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

In this randomized controlled pragmatic trial, 296 adults with prediabetes will be randomized to either a peer support arm or enhanced usual care. Participants in the peer support arm meet face-to-face initially with a trained peer coach who also is a patient at the same health center to receive information on locally available wellness and diabetes prevention programs, discuss behavioral goals related to diabetes prevention, and develop an action plan for the next week to meet their goals. Over six months, peer coaches call their assigned participants weekly to provide support for weekly action steps. In the final 6 months, coaches call participants at least once monthly. Participants in the enhanced usual care arm receive information on local resources and periodic updates on available diabetes prevention programs and resources. Changes in A1c, weight, waist circumference and other patient-centered outcomes and mediators and moderators of intervention effects will be assessed.

RESULTS

At least 296 participants and approximately 75 peer supporters will be enrolled.

DISCUSSION

Despite evidence that healthy lifestyle interventions can improve health behaviors and reduce risk for T2DM, engagement in recommended behavior change is low. This is especially true among racial and ethnic minority and low-income adults. Regular outreach and ongoing support from a peer coach may help participants to initiate and sustain healthy behavior changes to reduce their risk of diabetes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The ClinicalTrials.gov registration number is NCT03689530.

A population-based study on the prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus in association with temperature in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Previous studies showing seasonal clustering of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) were conducted in the temperate or frigid zones and mostly included pregnant Caucasian women. This study aims to investigate the association of ambient temperature with prevalence of GDM in Taiwan, a sub-tropic country.

METHODS

This population-based cohort study comprised women (n = 371,131) who gave births between 2013 and 2014; of which, 43,538 (11.7%) were diagnosed with GDM. The mean daily temperature and difference in temperature within a day was calculated over a 35-day period prior to GDM diagnosis or the first day of the 27th gestational week (for non-GDM subjects). Multiple logistic regression models with generalized estimation equation were performed to estimate the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of GDM in association with temperature.

RESULTS

After controlling for potential confounders, summer and fall were associated with higher risk of GDM diagnosis, with aOR [95% CI] of 1.05 [1.04-1.07] and 1.04 [1.02-1.06] in reference to winter. Additionally, an increase of 1 °C from 14 °C to 27 °C was associated with an aOR of 1.03 [1.02-1.03]. The aOR greatly increased to 1.54 [1.48-1.60] after 28 °C. An increase of 1 °C difference within a day was associated with a reduced aOR at 0.90 [0.87-0.92].

CONCLUSION

A higher prevalence of GDM was associated with a higher daily temperature, but with a smaller difference in temperature within a day.

Cardiac Autonomic Neuropathy in Obesity, the Metabolic Syndrome and Prediabetes: A Narrative Review

Cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) is a major complication of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T1DM and T2DM). The increased morbidity, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality associated with CAN is established from numerous epidemiological studies. However, CAN is increasingly recognised in people with prediabetes (pre-DM) and the metabolic syndrome (MetS) with a reported prevalence up to 11% and 24% respectively. CAN is associated with components of MetS including hypertension and obesity, predating hyperglycaemia. The aetiology of CAN is multifactorial and there is a reciprocal relationship with insulin resistance and MetS. Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is also associated with CAN possibly through MetS and an independent mechanism. An estimated global prevalence of the impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) form of pre-DM of 587 million people by 2045 means CAN will become a major clinical problem. CAN is independently associated with silent myocardial ischaemia, major cardiovascular events, myocardial dysfunction and cardiovascular mortality. Screening for CAN in pre-DM using risk scores with analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) or Sudoscan is important to allow earlier treatment at a reversible stage. The link between obesity and CAN highlights the therapeutic potential of lifestyle interventions including diet and physical activity to reverse MetS and prevent CAN. Weight loss achieved using these dietary and exercise lifestyle interventions improves the sympathetic and parasympathetic HRV indices of cardiac autonomic function. Further research is needed to identify high-risk populations of people with pre-DM or obesity that might benefit from targeted pharmacotherapy including metformin, sodium/glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) analogues. Bariatric surgery also improves HRV through weight loss which might also prevent CAN in severe obesity. This article reviews the literature on CAN in obesity, pre-DM and MetS, to help determine a rationale for screening, early intervention treatment and formulate future research questions in this highly prevalent condition.

Projection of Diabetes Prevalence in Korean Adults for the Year 2030 Using Risk Factors Identified from National Data

BACKGROUND

A number of studies have reported future prevalence estimates for diabetes mellitus (DM), but these studies have been limited for the Korean population. The present study aimed to construct a forecasting model that includes risk factors for type 2 DM using individual- and national-level data for Korean adults to produce prevalence estimates for the year 2030.

METHODS

Time series data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and national statistics from 2005 to 2013 were used. The study subjects were 13,908 male and 18,697 female adults aged 30 years or older who were free of liver cirrhosis. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to select significant factors associated with DM prevalence.

RESULTS

The results showed that survey year, age, sex, marital, educational, or occupational status, the presence of obesity or hypertension, smoking status, alcohol consumption, sleep duration, psychological distress or depression, and fertility rate significantly contributed to the 8-year trend in DM prevalence (P<0.05). Based on sex-specific forecasting models that included the above factors, DM prevalence for the year 2030 was predicted to be 29.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 27.6% to 30.8%) in men and 19.7% (95% CI, 18.2% to 21.2%) in women.

CONCLUSION

The present study projected a two-fold increase in the prevalence of DM in 2030 compared with that for the years 2013 and 2014 in Korean adults. Modifiable factors contributing to this increase in DM prevalence, such as obesity, smoking, and psychological factors, may require attention in order to reduce national and individual costs associated with DM.

Scaling Up Diabetes Prevention Programs in North Carolina: Perceptions of Demand From Potential Program Recipients and Providers

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to assess factors that influence demand for the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) from the perspectives of potential program participants and providers.

Methods

A qualitative study guided by a conceptual framework was conducted with potential DPP participants and potential DPP providers. Five focus groups with potential participants (n = 37) and key informant interviews with potential providers (n = 14) were conducted in community settings across North Carolina.

Results

Although providers considered prediabetes to be an important health problem, potential DPP participants expressed less urgency related to a diagnosis of prediabetes. Potential participants felt that they were more likely to adopt diabetes prevention programs if affordable and convenient. For potential program providers, funding, collaboration, and staff support were key considerations for DPP adoption. Providers were supportive of DPP features; however, there was concern from both stakeholders on retention in a 16-week program. Both groups cited transportation, cost, and health insurance reimbursement as existing barriers to the uptake of these programs.

Conclusion

This qualitative study highlights important considerations for scaling up diabetes prevention programs in community settings, including what constraints agencies face in adopting programs, the perceived demand and programmatic needs for these services by customers, and the need for improving patient education on prediabetes. This implementation science study allows us to increase the potential to scale up and sustain diabetes prevention programs that fit available resources and customer needs.

A Review of the Impacts of Different Approaches for Diabetes Prevention and a Framework for Making Investment Decisions

This paper selectively reviews the economic research on individual (i.e., diabetes prevention programs and financial rewards for weight loss) and population-wide based diabetes prevention interventions (such as food taxes, nutritional labeling, and worksite wellness programs) that demonstrate a direct reduction in diabetes incidence or improvements in diabetes risk factors such as weight, glucose or glycated hemoglobin. The paper suggests a framework to guide decision makers on how to use the available evidence to determine the optimal allocation of resources across population-wide and individual-based interventions. This framework should also assist in the discussion of what parameters are needed from research to inform decision-making on what might be the optimal mix of strategies to reduce diabetes prevalence.

Modeling the epidemic of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease demonstrates an exponential increase in burden of disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are highly prevalent in the United States, where they are a growing cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and increasingly an indicator for liver transplantation. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD disease progression. Incidence of NAFLD was based on historical and projected changes in adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Assumptions were derived from published literature where available and validated using national surveillance data for incidence of NAFLD-related HCC. Projected changes in NAFLD-related cirrhosis, advanced liver disease, and liver-related mortality were quantified through 2030. Prevalent NAFLD cases are forecasted to increase 21%, from 83.1 million (2015) to 100.9 million (2030), while prevalent NASH cases will increase 63% from 16.52 million to 27.00 million cases. Overall NAFLD prevalence among the adult population (aged ≥15 years) is projected at 33.5% in 2030, and the median age of the NAFLD population will increase from 50 to 55 years during 2015-2030. In 2015, approximately 20% of NAFLD cases were classified as NASH, increasing to 27% by 2030, a reflection of both disease progression and an aging population. Incidence of decompensated cirrhosis will increase 168% to 105,430 cases by 2030, while incidence of HCC will increase by 137% to 12,240 cases. Liver deaths will increase 178% to an estimated 78,300 deaths in 2030. During 2015-2030, there are projected to be nearly 800,000 excess liver deaths.

CONCLUSION

With continued high rates of adult obesity and DM along with an aging population, NAFLD-related liver disease and mortality will increase in the United States. Strategies to slow the growth of NAFLD cases and therapeutic options are necessary to mitigate disease burden. (Hepatology 2018;67:123-133).

Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico)

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes has been growing as a major health problem and a significant burden on the population and on health systems of developing countries like Mexico that are also ageing fast. The goal of the study was to estimate the future prevalence of diabetes among Mexico's older adults to assess the current and future health and economic burden of diabetes.

DESIGN

A simulation study using longitudinal data from three waves (2001, 2003 and 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate four scenarios of hypothetical interventions that would reduce diabetes incidence and to project the future diabetes prevalence rates among populations 50 years and older.

PARTICIPANTS

Data from 14 662 participants with information on self-reported diabetes, demographic characteristics, health and mortality.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We obtained, for each scenario of diabetes incidence reduction, the following summary measures for the population aged 50 and older from 2012 to 2050: prevalence of diabetes, total population with diabetes, number of medical visits.

RESULTS

In 2012, there were approximately 20.7 million persons aged 50 and older in Mexico; 19.3% had been diagnosed with diabetes and the 2001-2003 diabetes incidence was 4.3%. The no-intervention scenario shows that the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase from 19.3% in 2012 to 34.0% in 2050. Under the 30% incidence reduction scenario, the prevalence of diabetes will be 28.6% in 2050. Comparing the no-intervention scenario with the 30% and 60% diabetes incidence reduction scenarios, we estimate a total of 816 320 and 1.6 million annual averted cases of diabetes, respectively, for the year 2020.

DISCUSSION

Our study underscores the importance of diabetes as a disease by itself and also the potential healthcare demands and social burden of this disease and the need for policy interventions to reduce diabetes prevalence.

Health and economic benefits of reducing sugar intake in the USA, including effects via non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a microsimulation model

OBJECTIVES

Excessive consumption of added sugars in the human diet has been associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes (T2D), coronary heart disease (CHD) and other elements of the metabolic syndrome. Recent studies have shown that non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a critical pathway to metabolic syndrome. This model assesses the health and economic benefits of interventions aimed at reducing intake of added sugars.

METHODS

Using data from US National Health Surveys and current literature, we simulated an open cohort, for the period 2015-2035. We constructed a microsimulation model with Markov chains for NAFLD (including steatosis, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)), body mass index, T2D and CHD. We assessed reductions in population disease prevalence, disease-attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and costs, with interventions that reduce added sugars consumption by either 20% or 50%.

FINDINGS

The model estimated that a 20% reduction in added sugars intake will reduce prevalence of hepatic steatosis, NASH, cirrhosis, HCC, obesity, T2D and CHD. Incidence of T2D and CHD would be expected to decrease by 19.9 (95% CI 12.8 to 27.0) and 9.4 (95% CI 3.1 to 15.8) cases per 100 000 people after 20 years, respectively. A 20% reduction in consumption is also projected to annually avert 0.767 million (M) DALYs (95% CI 0.757M to 0.777M) and a total of US$10.3 billion (B) (95% CI 10.2B to 10.4B) in discounted direct medical costs by 2035. These effects increased proportionally when added sugars intake were reduced by 50%.

CONCLUSIONS

The decrease in incidence and prevalence of disease is similar to results in other models, but averted costs and DALYs were higher, mainly due to inclusion of NAFLD and CHD. The model suggests that efforts to reduce consumption of added sugars may result in significant public health and economic benefits.

Expanded roles of registered nurses in primary care delivery of the future

BACKGROUND

Primary care in the United States is changing: practice size is increasing, there is a growing shortage of primary care practitioners, and there is a heightened prevalence of chronic disease. Given these trends, it is likely that registered nurses will become important members of the primary care team.

PURPOSE

This paper explores the challenges and opportunities in primary care delivery in the 21st century and examines the likelihood of expanded roles for RNs to improve quality and add capacity to the primary care workforce.

METHODS

We searched the peer-reviewed and gray literature for publications on primary care, primary care workforce projections, the future of nursing, and team-based care.

DISCUSSION

The number of primary care physicians is expected to decrease in relation to the US population while the number of nurse practitioners is increasing, with the result that more and more patients will see nurse practitioners as their primary care practitioner. However, the primary care practitioner (physicians, nurse practitioners and physician assistants) to population ratio is dropping. As a result, other professionals will be needed to deliver primary care. As the nation's largest health profession, registered nurses (RNs) are in sufficient supply and have been shown to improve the care of patients with chronic conditions. It is likely that primary care practices of the future will include an enhanced role for RNs, particularly in chronic disease management.

CONCLUSION

For RNs to assume an expanded role in primary care, several barriers need to be overcome: (1) the widespread introduction of payment reform that reimburses RNs to independently provide care for patients, and (2) nursing education reform that includes primary care nursing skills (3) scope of practice clarification for non-advance practice RNs working under standardized procedures.

Evidence for Telemedicine for Diabetic Retinal Disease

According to current projections, the number of Americans with diabetes mellitus will increase from 27.8 million in 2007 to 60.7 million in 2030. With the increasing gap between demand for eye care and supply of ophthalmologists and optometrists, and the non-uniform distribution of eye care providers in US counties, barriers to eye examinations will likely increase. Telemedicine assessment of diabetic retinal disease through remote retinal imaging and diagnosis has the potential to meet these growing demands. To establish evidence for a telemedicine program as an effective modality for diabetic retinopathy (DR) assessment, the interpretation of teleretinal images should compare favorably with Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study film or digital photographs. We review the current evidence on the critical features and characteristics of ocular telehealth programs for DR in the following categories: image gradability, mydriasis, sensitivity and specificity, cost-effectiveness, long-term effectiveness, patient comfort and satisfaction, and improvement of patient related outcomes.

Inverse relationship between ambient temperature and admissions for diabetic ketoacidosis and hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state: A 14-year time-series analysis

This study aimed to investigate the association of admissions for diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state (HHS) with ambient temperature and season, respectively in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM), after excluding known co-morbidities that predispose onset of acute hyperglycemia events. This was a time series correlation analysis based on medical claims of 40,084 and 33,947 episodes of admission for DKA and HHS, respectively over a 14-year period in Taiwan. These episodes were not accompanied by co-morbidities known to trigger incidence of DKA and HHS. Monthly temperature averaged from 19 meteorological stations across Taiwan was correlated with monthly rate of admission for DKA or HHS, respectively, using the 'seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average' (seasonal ARIMA) regression method. There was an inverse relationship between ambient temperature and rates of admission for DKA (β=-0.035, p<0.001) and HHS (β=-0.016, p<0.001), despite a clear decline in rates of DKA/HHS admission in the second half of the study period. We also noted that winter was significantly associated with increased rates of both DKA (β=0.364, p<0.001) and HHS (β=0.129, p<0.05) admissions, as compared with summer. On the other hand, fall was associated with a significantly lower rate of HHS admission (β=-0.016, p<0.05). Further stratified analyses according to sex and age yield essentially similar results. It is suggested that meteorological data can be used to raise the awareness of acute hyperglycemic complication risk for both patients with diabetes and clinicians to further avoid the occurrence of DKA and HHS.

Potential benefits of healthy food and lifestyle policies for reducing coronary heart disease mortality in Turkish adults by 2025: a modelling study

OBJECTIVE

This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking, physical activity levels, dietary salt, saturated fat intake, mean body mass index (BMI) levels, diabetes prevalence and fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Turkey for year 2025.

DESIGN

A CHD mortality model previously developed and validated in Turkey was extended to predict potential trends in CHD mortality from 2008 to 2025.

SETTING

Using risk factor trends data from recent surveys as a baseline, we modelled alternative evidence-based future risk factor scenarios (modest/ideal scenarios). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for uncertainties.

SUBJECT

Projected populations in 2025 (aged 25-84) of 54 million in Turkey.

RESULTS

Assuming lower mortality, modest policy changes in risk factors would result in ∼25 635 (range: 20 290-31 125) fewer CHD deaths in the year 2025; 35.6% attributed to reductions in salt consumption, 20.9% to falls in diabetes, 14.6% to declines in saturated fat intake and 13.6% to increase in F&V intake. In the ideal scenario, 45 950 (range: 36 780-55 450) CHD deaths could be prevented in 2025. Again, 33.2% of this would be attributed to reductions in salt reduction, 19.8% to increases in F&V intake, 16.7% to reductions in saturated fat intake and 14.0% to the fall in diabetes prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Only modest risk factor changes in salt, saturated/unsaturated fats and F&V intake could prevent around 16 000 CHD deaths in the year 2025 in Turkey, even assuming mortality continues to decline. Implementation of population-based, multisectoral interventions to reduce salt and saturated fat consumption and increase F&V consumption should be scaled up in Turkey.

Type 2 Diabetes: Why We Are Winning the Battle but Losing the War? 2015 Kelly West Award Lecture

Diabetes is among the biggest of the 21st-century global health challenges. In the U.S. and other high-income countries, thanks to investments in science, dedication to implementing these findings, and measurement of quality of care, there have been improvements in diabetes management and declines in rate of diabetes complications and mortality. This good news, however, is overshadowed by the ever-increasing absolute numbers of people with diabetes and its complications and the unprecedented growth of diabetes in low- and middle-income countries of the world. To comprehensively win the war against diabetes requires 1) concerted attention to prevention and 2) expansion of global research to better inform population-level policies to curb diabetes but also to better understand individual- and population-level variations in pathophysiology and phenotypes globally so that prevention and treatment can be tailored. For example, preliminary data show that thin people in low- and middle-income countries such as India commonly experience type 2 diabetes. Global studies comparing these thin Asian Indians with other high-risk groups such as Pima Indians, a population with a high mean BMI, suggest that type 2 diabetes may not be a single pathophysiological entity. Pima Indians may represent the well-studied phenotype of poor insulin action (type 2A), whereas Asian Indians represent the grossly understudied phenotype of poor insulin secretion (type 2B). This has major implications for diagnosis, prevention, and treatment and highlights the mismatch between where diabetes burdens occur (i.e., low- and middle-income countries) and where research happens (i.e., high-income countries). Correcting this imbalance will advance our knowledge and arsenal to win the global war against diabetes.

Metabolic syndrome, glucose tolerance categories and the cardiovascular risk in Spanish population

We examined the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS), glucose tolerance categories and risk factors of cardiovascular-disease (CVD) in the general Spanish population. We studied 3844 randomly sampled subjects (46% males) aged 35-74 years. Glucose tolerance categories were defined according to the 2003 ADA and MetS according to the Harmonized Consensus Criteria with waist circumference (WC) cut-off-points previously reported in Spanish population (≥94.5/≥89.5cm for males/females). The prevalences of normoglycemia (NG), impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), IFG and IGT considered together (IFG/IGT), and diabetes mellitus (DM) were 67.6/16.6/5.0/3.3, and 7.5%, respectively. The overall prevalence of MetS was 31.2%. In subjects with NG, IFG, IGT, IFG/IGT, and DM the MetS prevalence's were 16.3/57.1/31.5/66.1, and 74.4% (p<0.001), respectively. MetS was more common in males, older subjects, smokers, and/or individuals with obesity, IFG, IFG/IGT, DM, or insulin resistance (HOMA-IR ≥3.8). MetS was less prevalent in individuals with low alcohol intake and/or high education level. Regarding the risk level of CVD estimated by Framingham and SCORE risk charts, IGT had higher estimated CVD-risk than IFG and IFG/IGT. The presence of MetS increases the risk 4.85 times by Framingham and 2.43 times by SCORE. Prevalence of prediabetes (IFG/IGT) and MetS were 25% and 31.2% respectively. Prevalence of MetS has not changed in the past decade in Spanish females, but has slightly increased in males. We found that subjects with IGT showed a higher risk of CVD than IFG and IFG/IGT according to the Framingham and SCORE. MetS increased the CVD-risk previously estimated by Framingham and SCORE.

Prediabetes and the association with unrecognized myocardial infarction in the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

With one-quarter of initial myocardial infarctions (MI) being unrecognized MI (UMI), recognition is critical to minimize further cardiovascular risk. Diabetes mellitus is an established risk factor for UMI. If impaired fasting glucose (IFG) also increased the risk for UMI, it would represent a significant public health challenge due to the rapid worldwide increase in IFG prevalence. We compared participants with IFG to those with normal fasting glucose (NFG) to determine if IFG was associated with UMIs.

METHODS

We performed cross-sectional analyses from the MESA, a population-based cohort study. There were 6,814 participants recruited during July 2000 to September 2002 from the general community at 6 field sites. After excluding those with diabetes mellitus or missing variables, 5,885 participants were included. At baseline, there were 4,955 participants with NFG and 930 participants with IFG. The main outcome was an UMI defined by the presence of pathological Q waves or minor Q waves with ST-T abnormalities on initial 12-lead electrocardiogram. Logistic regression was used to generate crude ORs and adjust for covariates.

RESULTS

There was a higher prevalence of UMI in those with IFG compared with those with NFG [3.5% (n = 72) vs 1.4% (n = 30)]. After adjustment for multiple risk factors, there was a higher odds of an UMI among those with IFG compared with those with NFG [OR: 1.60 (95% CI: 1.0-2.5); P = .048].

CONCLUSIONS

Impaired fasting glucose is associated with unrecognized myocardial infarctions in a multi-ethnic population free of baseline cardiovascular disease.

Guiding diabetes screening and prevention: rationale, recommendations and remaining challenges

Advances made in diabetes management are not sufficient to reduce morbidity, mortality and cost without making prevention efforts at various levels imperative for substantial impact. Research has demonstrated the efficacy of lifestyle intervention and medications in preventing type 2 diabetes among diverse high-risk groups commonly identified with oral glucose tolerance testing. Efficacy, sustainability and safety data are most comprehensive for lifestyle and metformin, with other medications also demonstrating efficacy and potential in the pharmacoprevention of diabetes. Subsequent implementation studies have demonstrated feasibility of lifestyle intervention programs at health centers, communities, and at local and national government levels. Challenges remain in widespread translation and reaching and engaging at-risk individuals and populations.

Increased prevalence of cardiac autonomic dysfunction at different degrees of glucose intolerance in the general population: the KORA S4 survey

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Cardiac autonomic nervous dysfunction (CAND) raises the risk of mortality, but the glycaemic threshold at which it develops is unclear. We aimed to determine the prevalence of, risk factors for and impact of CAND in glucose intolerance and diabetes.

METHODS

Among 1,332 eligible participants aged 55-74 years in the population-based cross-sectional KORA S4 study, 130 had known diabetes mellitus (k-DM), and the remaining 1,202 underwent an OGTT. Heart rate variability (HRV) and QT variability were computed from supine 5 min ECGs.

RESULTS

In all, 565 individuals had normal glucose tolerance (NGT), 336 had isolated impaired fasting glucose (i-IFG), 72 had isolated impaired glucose tolerance (i-IGT), 151 had combined IFG-IGT (IFG-IGT) and 78 had newly detected diabetes mellitus (n-DM). Adjusted normal HRV limits were defined in the NGT population (5th and 95th percentiles). Three HRV measures were more frequently abnormal in those with k-DM, n-DM, IFG-IGT and i-IFG than in those with NGT (p < 0.05). The rates of CAND (≥2 of 4 HRV indices abnormal) were: NGT, 4.5%; i-IFG, 8.1%; i-IGT, 5.9%; IFG-IGT, 11.4%; n-DM, 11.7%; and k-DM, 17.5% (p < 0.05 vs NGT, except for i-IGT). Reduced HRV was associated with cardiovascular risk factors used to construct a simple screening score for CAND. Mortality was higher in participants with reduced HRV (p < 0.05 vs normal HRV).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

In the general population aged 55-74 years, the prevalence of CAND is increased not only in individuals with diabetes, but also in those with IFG-IGT and, to a lesser degree, in those with i-IFG. It is associated with mortality and modifiable cardiovascular risk factors which may be used to screen for diminished HRV in clinical practice.

Environmental endocrine disruption of energy metabolism and cardiovascular risk

Rates of metabolic diseases have increased at an astounding rate in recent decades. Even though poor diet and physical inactivity are central drivers, these lifestyle changes alone fail to fully account for the magnitude and rapidity of the epidemic. Thus, attention has turned to identifying novel risk factors, including the contribution of environmental endocrine disrupting chemicals. Epidemiologic and preclinical data support a role for various contaminants in the pathogenesis of diabetes. In addition to the vascular risk associated with dysglycemia, emerging evidence implicates multiple pollutants in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease. Reviewed herein are studies linking endocrine disruptors to these key diseases that drive significant individual and societal morbidity and mortality. Identifying chemicals associated with metabolic and cardiovascular disease as well as their mechanisms of action is critical for developing novel treatment strategies and public policy to mitigate the impact of these diseases on human health.

Diabetes as a risk factor for poorer early postoperative outcomes after shoulder arthroplasty

BACKGROUND

Although diabetes has been associated with increased perioperative morbidity and mortality after hip and knee arthroplasty, its impact on early postoperative outcomes after shoulder replacement remains relatively unexplored. The purpose of the study was to determine the association of diabetes with in-hospital death, complications, length of stay, non-homebound disposition, and cost in patients undergoing shoulder arthroplasty.

METHODS

By use of the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database for the year 2011, an estimated 66,485 patients having undergone shoulder arthroplasty were identified and separated into groups with (21%) and without (79%) diabetes mellitus. Comparisons of specific outcome measures between diabetic and nondiabetic cohorts were performed by bivariate and multivariable analyses with logistic regression modeling.

RESULTS

Diabetes mellitus was independently associated with in-hospital death, a number of perioperative complications, prolonged hospital stay, and increased non-homebound disposition after shoulder arthroplasty. The presence of diabetes was not associated with increased hospital cost.

CONCLUSION

Patients with preexisting diabetes are at higher risk for perioperative morbidity and mortality after shoulder arthroplasty. Future prospective research should explore in more detail the relationship between diabetes and shoulder arthroplasty outcomes.

Translating the Diabetes Prevention Program into an Online Social Network

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of Prevent, an online social network-based translation of the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) lifestyle intervention, against the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Diabetes Prevention and Recognition Program (DPRP) outcome standards and weight loss outcomes of other DPP translations.

Methods

Two hundred twenty participants previously diagnosed with prediabetes were recruited online and enrolled in Prevent, a DPP-based group lifestyle intervention that integrates a private online social network, weekly lessons, health coaching, and a wireless scale and pedometer. Participants underwent a core 16-week intensive lifestyle change intervention and were then offered to continue with a post-core lifestyle change maintenance intervention, with the entire intervention (core plus post-core) totaling 12 months.

Results

One hundred eighty-seven participants met inclusion criteria for the core program and achieved an average of 5.0% and 4.8% weight loss at 16 weeks and 12 months, respectively. They also had a 0.37% reduction in their A1C level at final measurement. One hundred forty-four of these same participants also met inclusion criteria for the post-core program and achieved an average of 5.4% and 5.2% weight loss at 16 weeks and 12 months, respectively, and a 0.40% reduction in A1C at final measurement.

Conclusion

Results indicate that Prevent meets CDC DPRP outcome standards for diabetes prevention programs and performs favorably to other DPP translations. Considering national initiatives to address the obesity and diabetes epidemics, online delivery platforms like Prevent offer an effective and scalable solution.