Ethnic differences in cardiovascular risk: examining differential exposure and susceptibility to risk factors

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) disproportionately affects ethnic-minority groups globally. Ethnic-minority groups face particularly high CVD burden and mortality, exacerbated by disparities across modifiable risk factors, wider determinants of health, and limited access to preventative interventions. This narrative review summarizes evidence on modifiable risk factors, such as physical activity, hypertension, diet, smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, and the polypill for the primary prevention of CVD in ethnic minorities. Across these factors, we find inequities in risk factor prevalence. The evidence underscores that inequalities in accessibility to interventions and treatments impede progress in reducing CVD risk using primary prevention interventions for ethnic-minority people. Although culturally tailored interventions show promise, further research is required across the different risk factors. Social determinants of health and structural inequities also exacerbate CVD risk for ethnic-minority people and warrant greater attention. Additionally, we find that only limited ethnicity-specific data and guidelines are available on CVD primary prevention interventions for most risk factors. To address these gaps in research, we provide recommendations that include the following: investigating the sustainability and real-world effectiveness of culturally sensitive interventions; ensuring that ethnic-minority peoples' perspectives are considered in research; longitudinal tracking of risk factors; interventions and outcomes in ethnic-minority people; and ensuring that data collection and reporting of ethnicity data are standardized.

Socioeconomic and Ethnic Disparities in the Process of Care and Outcomes Among Cancer Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome

Cancer and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are the leading causes of morbidity and mortality globally, with many shared risk factors. There are several challenges to the management of patients with cancer presenting with ACS, owing to their higher baseline risk profile, the complexities of their cancer-related therapies and prognosis, and their higher risk of adverse outcomes after ACS. Although previous studies have demonstrated disparities in the care of both cancer and ACS among patients from ethnic minorities and socioeconomic deprivation, there is limited evidence around the magnitude of such disparities specifically in cancer patients presenting with ACS. This review summarises the current literature on differences in prevalence and management of ACS among patients with cancer from ethnic minorities and socioeconomically deprived backgrounds, as well as the gaps in evidence around the care of this high-risk population and potential solutions.

Nutrition for dementia prevention: a state of the art update for clinicians

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Dementia prevalence continues to rise. It is therefore essential to provide feasible and effective recommendations to encourage healthy brain ageing and reduce dementia risk across the population. Appropriate nutrition represents a potential strategy to mitigate dementia risk and could be recommended by clinicians as part of mid-life health checks and other health initiatives to reduce dementia prevalence. The purpose of this review is to provide a clinician-focused update on the current state of the knowledge on nutrition and dementia prevention.

METHODS

Narrative review.

RESULTS

Strong evidence exists to support the consumption of healthy, plant-based dietary patterns (e.g. Mediterranean, MIND or Nordic diet) for maintaining cognitive function and reducing dementia risk in later life and is supported by dementia prevention guideline from leading public health bodies (e.g. World Health Organization). Emerging evidence suggests potential cognitive benefits of consuming specific nutrients/foods (e.g. n-3 fatty acids or fish, flavonols and B-vitamins) and multi-nutrient compounds (e.g. Fortasyn Connect). Challenges and opportunities for integrating nutritional/dietary interventions for dementia prevention into clinical practice are explored in this review.

CONCLUSIONS

Appropriate nutrition represents an important factor to help facilitate healthy cognitive ageing and allay dementia risk. The information provided in this article can help clinicians provide informed opinions on appropriate nutritional strategies as part of mid-life Health Checks and other risk reduction initiatives.

Genetic, lifestyle and metabolic factors contributing to cardiovascular disease in the Italian population: a literature review

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) represent a major health problem worldwide. In Italy, despite the decline in CVD mortality and disability-adjusted life years recently observed, CVD remains the leading cause of death. The development of CVD has a complex and multifactorial etiology that involves environmental, lifestyle/behavioral (e.g., unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, smoking, and alcohol abuse), metabolic, and genetic factors. Although a large number of CVD susceptibility genetic variants have been identified, some seem to confer risk according to the genetic background or ethnicity of the population. Some CVD-associated polymorphisms with appreciable frequency in the Italian population may be important contributors to the development and progression of the most prevalent CVD in the population. This literature review aims to provide an overview of the epidemiology of CVD in Italy, as well as to highlight the main genetic, lifestyle/behavioral, and metabolic factors contributing to CVD risk in this population.

Helicobacter pylori, persistent infection burden and structural brain imaging markers

Persistent infections, whether viral, bacterial or parasitic, including Helicobacter pylori infection, have been implicated in non-communicable diseases, including dementia and other neurodegenerative diseases. In this cross-sectional study, data on 635 cognitively normal participants from the UK Biobank study (2006-21, age range: 40-70 years) were used to examine whether H. pylori seropositivity (e.g. presence of antibodies), serointensities of five H. pylori antigens and a measure of total persistent infection burden were associated with selected brain volumetric structural MRI (total, white, grey matter, frontal grey matter (left/right), white matter hyperintensity as percent intracranial volume and bi-lateral sub-cortical volumes) and diffusion-weighted MRI measures (global and tract-specific bi-lateral fractional anisotropy and mean diffusivity), after an average 9-10 years of lag time. Persistent infection burden was calculated as a cumulative score of seropositivity for over 20 different pathogens. Multivariable-adjusted linear regression analyses were conducted, whereby selected potential confounders (all measures) and intracranial volume (sub-cortical volumes) were adjusted, with stratification by Alzheimer's disease polygenic risk score tertile when exposures were H. pylori antigen serointensities. Type I error was adjusted to 0.007. We report little evidence of an association between H. pylori seropositivity and persistent infection burden with various volumetric outcomes (P > 0.007, from multivariable regression models), unlike previously reported in past research. However, H. pylori antigen serointensities, particularly immunoglobulin G against the vacuolating cytotoxin A, GroEL and outer membrane protein antigens, were associated with poorer tract-specific white matter integrity (P < 0.007), with outer membrane protein serointensity linked to worse outcomes in cognition-related tracts such as the external capsule, the anterior limb of the internal capsule and the cingulum, specifically at low Alzheimer's disease polygenic risk. Vacuolating cytotoxin A serointensity was associated with greater white matter hyperintensity volume among individuals with mid-level Alzheimer's disease polygenic risk, while among individuals with the highest Alzheimer's disease polygenic risk, the urease serointensity was consistently associated with reduced bi-lateral caudate volumes and the vacuolating cytotoxin A serointensity was linked to reduced right putamen volume (P < 0.007). Outer membrane protein and urease were associated with larger sub-cortical volumes (e.g. left putamen and right nucleus accumbens) at middle Alzheimer's disease polygenic risk levels (P < 0.007). Our results shed light on the relationship between H. pylori seropositivity, H. pylori antigen levels and persistent infection burden with brain volumetric structural measures. These data are important given the links between infectious agents and neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer's disease, and can be used for the development of drugs and preventive interventions that would reduce the burden of those diseases.

Adherence to the Eatwell Guide and population and planetary health: A Rank Prize Forum report

This report summarises a Forum conducted in June 2023 to explore the current state of the knowledge around the Eatwell Guide, which is the UK government's healthy eating tool, in relation to population and planetary health. The 1.5-day Forum highlighted the limited, albeit promising evidence linking higher adherence to the Eatwell Guide with favourable health outcomes, including reduced overall mortality risk, lower abdominal obesity in post-menopausal women and improved cardiometabolic health markers. Similarly, evidence was presented to suggest that higher adherence to the Eatwell Guide is associated with reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Presentations were given around cultural adaptations of the Eatwell Guide, including African Heritage and South Asian versions, which are designed to increase the acceptability and uptake of the Eatwell Guide in these communities in the United Kingdom. Presentations highlighted ongoing work relevant to the applications of the Eatwell Guide in randomised controlled trials and public health settings, including the development of a screening tool to quantify Eatwell Guide adherence. The Forum ended with a World Café-style event, in which the strengths and limitations of the Eatwell Guide were discussed, and directions for future research were identified. This Forum report serves as a primer on the current state of the knowledge on the Eatwell Guide and population and planetary health and will be of interest to researchers, healthcare professionals and public health officials.

Subnational inequalities in years of life lost and associations with socioeconomic factors in pre-pandemic Europe, 2009-19: an ecological study

BACKGROUND

Health inequalities have been associated with shorter lifespans. We aimed to investigate subnational geographical inequalities in all-cause years of life lost (YLLs) and the association between YLLs and socioeconomic factors, such as household income, risk of poverty, and educational attainment, in countries within the European Economic Area (EEA) before the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

In this ecological study, we extracted demographic and socioeconomic data from Eurostat for 1390 small regions and 285 basic regions for 32 countries in the EEA, which was complemented by a time-trend analysis of subnational regions within the EEA. Age-standardised YLL rates per 100 000 population were estimated from 2009 to 2019 based on methods from the Global Burden of Disease study. Geographical inequalities were assessed using the Gini coefficient and slope index of inequality. Socioeconomic inequalities were assessed by investigating the association between socioeconomic factors (educational attainment, household income, and risk of poverty) and YLLs in 2019 using negative binomial mixed models.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2009, and Dec 31, 2019, YLLs lowered in almost all subnational regions. The Gini coefficient of YLLs across all EEA regions was 14·2% (95% CI 13·6-14·8) for females and 17·0% (16·3 to 17·7) for males. Relative geographical inequalities in YLLs among women were highest in the UK (Gini coefficient 11·2% [95% CI 10·1-12·3]) and among men were highest in Belgium (10·8% [9·3-12·2]). The highest YLLs were observed in subnational regions with the lowest levels of educational attainment (incident rate ratio [IRR] 1·19 [1·13-1·26] for females; 1·22 [1·16-1·28] for males), household income (1·35 [95% CI 1·19-1·53]), and the highest poverty risk (1·25 [1·18-1·34]).

INTERPRETATION

Differences in YLLs remain within, and between, EEA countries and are associated with socioeconomic factors. This evidence can assist stakeholders in addressing health inequities to improve overall disease burden within the EEA.

FUNDING

Research Council of Norway; Development, and Innovation Fund of Hungary; Norwegian Institute of Public Medicine; and COST Action 18218 European Burden of Disease Network.

Attitudes to and perceptions of workplace health promotion amongst employees from ethnic minorities in the UK: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Ethnic minorities make up approximately 14% of the UK workforce. Despite the disproportionate burden of ill-health amongst ethnic minorities, and the increased interest in Diversity, Equity & Inclusion (DE&I) in the workplace, workplace health and wellbeing interventions are still most often designed for the ethnic majority.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this scoping review was to explore the depth and breadth of evidence on the attitudes to and perceptions of health and wellbeing interventions in the workplace within ethnic minority groups in the UK, and to identify gaps in evidence that would provide direction for future research needs.

METHODS

A scoping review with quality appraisal was undertaken, supplemented by a review of grey literature and a narrative review exploring related evidence from the knowledge bases related to community and cultural adaptation.

RESULTS

Only three peer-reviewed studies met inclusion criteria, preventing broad conclusions. 14 papers from the community and cultural adaptation literature provided additional information about how health promotion may be approached effectively in the workplace, including the importance of culturally sensitive, people-centred design, and the use of established adaptation frameworks.

CONCLUSION

The literature suggests a need for improvements in four key areas: (1) reporting of ethnic minorities in data relating to workplace health and wellbeing research, (2) more thorough review of perceptions and attitudes of ethnic minority workers in the UK, (3) design of culturally appropriate interventions that are tested for impact, and (4) testing of the effectiveness of culturally adapted interventions.

Risk of myocardial infarction among pigeon breeders: A follow-up study

Pigeon breeders are exposed to high levels of fine particulate organic matter in the pigeon lofts. A total of 6,704 pigeon breeders and their 1:30 sex and age-matched referents from the general Danish population were followed from 1980 or first year of membership in the Danish Racing Pigeon Association, until first event of myocardial infarction, emigration, death, or end of study, on December 31, 2013. Information on outcomes and covariates was obtained by record linkage with national registers. Stratified Cox regression models estimated the hazard ratio of myocardial infarction, adjusted for occupation and residence at the start of follow-up. Compared with referents, pigeon breeders had an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.05-1.22) for myocardial infarction. Exposure to pigeon-derived organic dust may increase the risk of myocardial infarction, but this finding needs to be corroborated.

Predictors of major adverse cardiac events among patients with chest pain and low HEART score in the emergency department

AIM

For patients who present to the emergency departments (ED) with undifferentiated chest pain, the risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) may be underestimated in low-HEART score patients. We aimed to identify characteristics of patients who were classified as low risk by HEART score but subsequently developed MACE at 6 weeks.

METHODS

We studied a multiethnic cohort of patients who presented with chest pain arousing suspicion of acute coronary syndrome to EDs in the Netherlands and Singapore. Patients were risk-stratified using HEART score and followed up for MACE at 6 weeks. Risk factors of developing MACE despite low HEART scores (scores 0-3) were identified using logistic and Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Among 1376 (39.8%) patients with low HEART scores, 63 (4.6%) developed MACE at 6 weeks. More males (53/806, 6.6%) than females (10/570, 2.8%) with low HEART score developed MACE. There was no difference in outcomes between ethnic groups. Among low-HEART score patients with 2 points for history, 21% developed MACE. Among low-HEART score patients with 1 point for troponin, 50% developed MACE, while 100% of those with 2 points for troponin developed MACE. After adjusting for HEART score and potential confounders, male sex was independently associated with increased odds (OR 4.12, 95%CI 2.14-8.78) and hazards (HR 3.93, 95%CI 1.98-7.79) of developing MACE despite low HEART score.

CONCLUSION

Male sex, highly suspicious history and elevated troponin were disproportionately associated with MACE. These characteristics should prompt clinicians to consider further investigation before discharge.

Recalibration of Framingham risk for a local population of Sri Lanka

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) account for the highest number of deaths and disability globally and within Sri Lanka. A CVD risk prediction tool is a simple means of early identification of high-risk groups which is a cost-effective preventive strategy, especially for resource-poor countries. Distribution of risk factor levels varies in different regions even within the same country, thus a common risk estimation tool for the country may give false local predictions. Since there are few published data related to Sri Lanka the aim of this study was to recalibrate the Framingham equation according to the local risk factor profile of a population in the Kurunegala region in Sri Lanka.

METHOD

A cross-sectional study was conducted with the participation of 1 102 persons from the Kurunegala Regional Director of Health Services area and the data was collected using an interviewer-administered questionnaire, anthropometric, blood pressure, and biochemical measurements. CVD risk was estimated using Framingham original and recalibrated CVD risk assessment methods. Current CVD mortality and morbidity data and the recalibration method conducted by the method described by Wilson and colleagues were used for calculations.

RESULTS

Original and recalibrated Framingham CVD risk scores predicted 55.5% (N = 612) and 62.3% (N = 687) to be having less than 10% CVD risk respectively. Further, the original and recalibrated CVD Risk Scores predicted 2.2% (N = 24) and 1.8% (N = 20) to be having CVD risk more than 40% respectively.

CONCLUSION

These findings show an over prediction of the CVD risk with the original Framingham risk calculations which signifies the importance of development of a region-specific risk prediction tool using local risk factor data in Sri Lanka which will prevent unnecessary expenditure to manage people without risk of CVD.

Infection burden and its association with neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging markers in the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Infection burden (IB), although linked to neurodegeneration, including Alzheimer's Disease (AD), has not been examined against neurite orientation, dispersion, and density imaging (NODDI) measures.

METHODS

Among 38,803 UK Biobank adults (Age:40-70 years), we tested associations of total IB (IBtotal, 47.5 %) and hospital-treated IB (IBhosp, 9.7 %) with NODDI measures (5-15 years later), including volume fraction of Gaussian isotropic diffusion (ISOVF), intra-cellular volume fraction (ICVF) and orientation dispersion (OD) indices, using multiple linear regression models.

RESULTS

Total and hospital-treated infection burdens (IBtotal and IBhosp) were associated with increased ISOVF, indicating increased free-water component. IBtotal was positively associated with OD, indicating that at higher IBtotal there was greater fanning of neurites. This was more evident in the lower cardiovascular health group. IBhosp was associated with higher OD, and lower ICVF at higher AD polygenic risk. Together, these findings indicate that both total and hospital-treated infections have effects on NODDI outcomes in the direction of poor brain health. These effects were largely homogeneous across cardiovascular health and AD polygenic risk groups, with some effects shown to be stronger at poor cardiovascular health and/or higher AD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Total and hospital-treated infections were associated with poorer white matter microstructure (higher ISOVF or OD or lower ICVF), with some heterogeneity across cardiovascular health and AD risk. Longitudinal studies with multiple repeats on neuroimaging markers in comparable samples are needed.

Hospital-treated prevalent infections, the plasma proteome and incident dementia among UK older adults

The plasma proteome can mediate the association of hospital-treated infections with dementia incidence. We screened up to 37,269 UK Biobank participants aged 50-74 years for the presence of a prevalent hospital-treated infection, subsequently tested as a predictor for ≤1,463 plasma proteins and dementia incidence. Four-way decomposition models decomposed infection-dementia total effect into pure mediation, pure interaction, neither or both through the plasma proteome. Hospital-treated infections increased dementia two-fold. The strongest mediation effect was through the growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15) protein. Top 17 proteomic mediators explained collectively 5% of the total effect, while pathway analysis of all mediators (k = 221 plasma proteins) revealed top pathways including the immune system, signal transduction, metabolism, disease and metabolism of proteins, with the GDF15 cluster reflecting most strongly the "transmembrane receptor protein tyrosine kinase signaling pathway". The association of hospital-treated infections with dementia was partially mediated through GDF15 and other plasma proteomic markers.

Thrombocytopenia and venous thromboembolic events after BNT162b2, CoronaVac, ChAdOx1 vaccines and SARS-CoV-2 infection: a self-controlled case series study

This study assessed the association between COVID-19 vaccines, SARS-CoV-2 infection and the risk of thrombocytopenia and venous thromboembolism (VTE). This self-controlled case series study used hospital records between 1st February 2021 and 28th February 2022 linked to the national immunisation registry and COVID-19 surveillance data in Malaysia. Conditional Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) of events in the risk period (day 1-21 post-exposure) relative to control period with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) adjusted for calendar period. We found no significant increased risk of thrombocytopenia in 1-21 days following BNT162b2, CoronaVac and ChAdOx1 vaccines while the risk was increased following SARS-CoV-2 infection (IRR 15.52, 95% CI 13.38-18.00). Similarly, vaccination with BNT162b2, CoronaVac, or ChAdOx1 was not associated with an increased risk of VTE during the 1-21 days risk period. SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with increased risk of VTE (IRR 39.84, 95% CI 27.45-32.44). Our findings showed low event rates of thrombocytopenia and VTE following booster vaccination with comparable safety profiles between those who received homologous and heterologous booster combinations. Our findings showed the risk of thrombocytopenia and VTE was not increased after COVID-19 vaccination while the risks were substantially higher after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Cardiovascular health, infection burden and their interactive association with brain volumetric and white matter integrity outcomes in the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular health is associated with brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers of pathology and infections may modulate this association.

METHODS

Using data from 38,803 adults (aged 40-70 years) and followed-up for 5-15 years, we tested associations of prevalent total (47.5%) and hospital-treated infection burden (9.7%) with brain structural and diffusion-weighted MRI (i.e., sMRI and dMRI, respectively) common in dementia phenome. Poor white matter tissue integrity was operationalized with lower global and tract-specific fractional anisotropy (FA) and higher mean diffusivity (MD). Volumetric sMRI outcomes included total, gray matter (GM), white matter (WM), frontal bilateral GM, white matter hyperintensity (WMH), and selected based on previous associations with dementia. Cardiovascular health was measured with Life's Essential 8 score (LE8) converted to tertiles. Multiple linear regression models were used, adjusting for intracranial volumes (ICV) for subcortical structures, and for demographic, socio-economic, and the Alzheimer's Disease polygenic risk score for all outcomes, among potential confounders.

RESULTS

In fully adjusted models, hospital-treated infections were inversely related to GM (β ± SE: -1042 ± 379, p = 0.006) and directly related to WMH as percent of ICV (Loge transformed) (β ± SE:+0.026 ± 0.007, p < 0.001). Both total and hospital-treated infections were associated with poor WMI, while the latter was inversely related to FA within the lowest LE8 tertile (β ± SE:-0.0011 ± 0.0003, p < 0.001, PLE8×IB < 0.05), a pattern detected for GM, Right Frontal GM, left accumbens and left hippocampus volumes. Within the uppermost LE8 tertile, total infection burden was linked to smaller right amygdala while being associated with larger left frontal GM and right putamen volumes, in the overall sample. Within that uppermost tertile of LE8, caudate volumes were also positively associated with hospital-treated infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital-treated infections had more consistent deleterious effects on volumetric and white matter integrity brain neuroimaging outcomes compared with total infectious burden, particularly in poorer cardiovascular health groups. Further studies are needed in comparable populations, including longitudinal studies with multiple repeats on neuroimaging markers.

Pathways explaining racial/ethnic disparities in incident all-cause dementia among middle-aged US adults

INTRODUCTION

Racial disparities in dementia incidence exist, but less is known about their presence and drivers among middle-aged adults.

METHODS

We used time-to-event analysis among a sample of 4378 respondents (age 40-59 years at baseline) drawn from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES III) with administrative linkage-spanning the years 1988-2014-to evaluate potential mediating pathways through socioeconomic status (SES), lifestyle, and health-related characteristics.

RESULTS

Compared with Non-Hispanic White (NHW) adults, Non-White adults had a higher incidence of AD-specific (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21, 3.49) and all-cause dementia (HR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.36, 2.98). Diet, smoking, and physical activity were among characteristics on the pathway between race/ethnicity, SES, and dementia, with health-mediating effects of smoking and physical activity on dementia risk.

DISCUSSION

We identified several pathways that may generate racial disparities in incident all-cause dementia among middle-aged adults. No direct effect of race was observed. More studies are needed to corroborate our findings in comparable populations.

Cardiovascular health, infection burden, and incident dementia in the UK Biobank

INTRODUCTION

Among older adults, total and hospitalized infection may be associated with incidence of all-cause and Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementias, with variation by cardiovascular health (CVH).

METHODS

We used Cox proportional hazards (PH) models to examine the relationships between International Classification of Diseases-10th revision (ICD-10)-specific viral and bacterial infectious agents and incident all-cause and AD dementia among 355,046 UK Biobank participants ≥50 years at baseline. Life's Essential 8 (LE8) index reflected CVH.

RESULTS

In both sexes, total infection burden (yes vs. no) was associated with all-cause dementia, with significant interactions by LE8 tertiles, whereby this relationship was significant only in the lowest LE8 tertile. Hospital-treated infection burden (yes vs no) was significantly related to all-cause and AD dementia, with no significant interaction with LE8 tertile. Age group patterns were detected.

DISCUSSION

AD and all-cause dementia were related to hospital-treated infections, while CVH modified the relationship of total infection burden with all-cause dementia. Highlights Secondary analysis on >355,000 UK Biobank participants ≥50 years at baseline. Alzheimer's disease and all-cause dementia are both related to hospital-treated infection. Cardiovascular health modifies association of infection burden with all-cause dementia.

Determining cardiovascular risk in patients with unattributed chest pain in UK primary care: an electronic health record study

AIMS

Most adults presenting in primary care with chest pain symptoms will not receive a diagnosis ('unattributed' chest pain) but are at increased risk of cardiovascular events. To assess within patients with unattributed chest pain, risk factors for cardiovascular events and whether those at greatest risk of cardiovascular disease can be ascertained by an existing general population risk prediction model or by development of a new model.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study used UK primary care electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to admitted hospitalizations. Study population was patients aged 18 plus with recorded unattributed chest pain 2002-2018. Cardiovascular risk prediction models were developed with external validation and comparison of performance to QRISK3, a general population risk prediction model. There were 374 917 patients with unattributed chest pain in the development data set. The strongest risk factors for cardiovascular disease included diabetes, atrial fibrillation, and hypertension. Risk was increased in males, patients of Asian ethnicity, those in more deprived areas, obese patients, and smokers. The final developed model had good predictive performance (external validation c-statistic 0.81, calibration slope 1.02). A model using a subset of key risk factors for cardiovascular disease gave nearly identical performance. QRISK3 underestimated cardiovascular risk.

CONCLUSION

Patients presenting with unattributed chest pain are at increased risk of cardiovascular events. It is feasible to accurately estimate individual risk using routinely recorded information in the primary care record, focusing on a small number of risk factors. Patients at highest risk could be targeted for preventative measures.

An Opportunity for Prevention: Associations Between the Life's Essential 8 Score and Cardiovascular Incidence Using Prospective Data from UK Biobank

To investigate the association between the Life's Essential 8 (LE8) score and the incidence of four cardiovascular outcomes (ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure [HF]) - separately and as a composite outcome of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) - in UK Biobank. 250,825 participants were included in this prospective study. Smoking, non-HDL cholesterol, blood pressure, body mass index, HbA1c, physical activity, diet, and sleep were used to create a modified version of the LE8 score. Associations between the score (both as a continuous score and as quartiles) and outcomes were investigated using adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. The potential impact fractions of two scenarios were also calculated. Over a median follow-up of 10.4 years, there were 25,068 MACE. Compared to individuals in the highest quartile of the score (healthiest), those in the lowest quartile (least healthy) had 2.07 (95% CI: 1.99; 2.16) higher risk for MACE. The highest relative risk gradient of the individual outcomes was observed for HF (HR_{lowest quartile}: 2.67 [95% CI: 2.42; 2.94]). The magnitude of association was stronger in participants below 50 years, women, and ethnic minorities. A targeted intervention that increased, by 10-points, the score among individuals in the lowest quartile could have prevented 9.2% of MACE. Individuals with a lower LE8 score experienced more MACE, driven especially by incident HF. Our scenarios suggested that relevant interventions targeted towards those in the lowest quartile may have a greater impact than interventions producing small equal changes across all quartiles.

Cardiovascular risk in adults with different levels of physical activity

BACKGROUND

Physical inactivity is a behavioral and modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We aimed to assess the association of walking or moderate to vigorous physical activity of various durations with cardiovascular risk in age and sex groups of the adult general population.

METHODS

This research was a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from a Brazilian cohort study (2009 to 2014) on the general population in an urban area. Overall, 1208 patients (48.2% males) aged 20-59 years [mean (SD) age = 38.8 (12.0) years] were included.

RESULTS

We developed two well-fitted logistic models for investigating the main and interaction effects of physical activity; C-statistic = 74.1 and 80.4, respectively. Older age groups showed a higher association with the risk of cardiovascular disease, adjusted odds ratio OR (95%CI) = 5.28 (2.69, 10.76) for age ≥ 50 years. Walking < 150 min/w was not significant for all age groups (all P ≥ 0.139) compared with the base category (20-29 years). Also, moderate to vigorous physical activity < 150 min/w was not associated with lower cardiovascular risk. However, for moderate to vigorous physical activity ≥ 150 min/w, our results were indicative of a significant protective role for people in 30-39 and ≥ 50 age ranges; OR = 0.20 (0.09, 0.46) and 0.22 (0.10, 0.48), respectively (both P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our study did not suggest a protective role for walking. However, moderate to vigorous physical activity ≥ 150 min/w was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease in older patients.

Differences in the risk of cardiovascular disease across ethnic groups: UK Biobank observational study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To describe sociodemographic, lifestyle, environmental and traditional clinical risk factor differences between ethnic groups and to investigate the extent to which such differences confound the association between ethnic groups and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 440,693 white European (55.9% women), 7305 South Asian (48.6%) and 7628 black African or Caribbean (57.7%) people were included from UK Biobank. Associations between ethnicity and cardiovascular outcomes (composite of non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction and CVD death) were explored using Cox-proportional hazard models. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle, environmental and clinical risk factors. Over a median (IQR) of 12.6 (11.8, 13.3) follow-up years, there were 22,711 (5.15%) cardiovascular events in white European, 463 (6.34%) in South Asian and 302 (3.96%) in black African or Caribbean individuals. For South Asian people, the cardiovascular hazard ratio (HR) compared to white European people was 1.28 (99% CI [1.16, 1.43]). For black African or Caribbean people, the HR was 0.80 (0.66, 0.97). The elevated risk of CVD in South Asians remained after adjusting for differences in sociodemographic, lifestyle, environmental and clinical factors, whereas the lower risk in black African or Caribbean was largely attenuated.

CONCLUSIONS

South Asian, but not black African or Caribbean individuals, have a higher risk of CVD compared to white European individuals. This higher risk in South Asians was independent of sociodemographic, lifestyle, environmental and clinical factors.

Increased plasma trimethylamine-N-oxide levels are associated with mild cognitive impairment in high cardiovascular risk elderly population

Trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO) has been shown to be associated with cardiovascular (CV) disease and cognitive impairment. The association between early stages of cognitive impairment and TMAO in a high CV risk population has not been previously investigated. This study aimed to investigate the association between the plasma TMAO level and cognitive function in a population with a high risk of CV disease. Participants at a high risk of CV were included. The cognition was evaluated using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment. A score lower than 25 out of 30 was used to indicate mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Blood samples of all participants (n = 233) were collected to measure the plasma levels of TMAO and other metabolic parameters, including fasting blood sugar and lipid profiles. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between MCI and high plasma TMAO levels, adjusted for confounding factors. Of 233 patients, the mean age of patients in this study was 64 years old (SD 8.4). The median TMAO level was 4.31 μM (IQR 3.95). The high TMAO level was an independent risk factor of MCI (aOR 2.36, 95% CI 1.02 to 5.47; p 0.046), when adjusted for age, gender, health care service scheme, smoking history, metabolic syndrome, and history of established CV events. The high TMAO level was associated with MCI, after adjustment for potential confounding factors. These findings demonstrate that plasma TMAO levels can serve for target prediction as an independent risk factor for MCI in this population.