Alzheimer's and other dementias in Canada, 2011 to 2031: a microsimulation Population Health Modeling (POHEM) study of projected prevalence, health burden, health services, and caregiving use

Prioritizing determinants of cognitive function in healthy middle-aged and older adults: insights from a machine learning regression approach in the Canadian longitudinal study on aging

Introduction

The preservation of healthy cognitive function is a crucial step toward reducing the growing burden of cognitive decline and impairment. Our study aims to identify the characteristics of an individual that play the greatest roles in determining healthy cognitive function in mid to late life.

Methods

Data on the characteristics of an individual that influence their health, also known as determinants of health, were extracted from the baseline cohort of the Canadian Longitudinal Study of Aging (2015). Cognitive function was a normalized latent construct score summarizing eight cognitive tests administered as a neuropsychological battery by CLSA staff. A higher cognitive function score indicated better functioning. A penalized regression model was used to select and order determinants based on their strength of association with cognitive function. Forty determinants (40) were entered into the model including demographic and socioeconomic factors, lifestyle and health behaviors, clinical measures, chronic diseases, mental health status, social support and the living environment.

Results

The study sample consisted mainly of White, married, men and women aged 45-64 years residing in urban Canada. Mean overall cognitive function score for the study sample was 99.5, with scores ranging from 36.6 to 169.2 (lowest to highest cognitive function). Thirty-five (35) determinants were retained in the final model as significantly associated with healthy cognitive functioning. The determinants demonstrating the strongest associations with healthy cognitive function, were race, immigrant status, nutritional risk, community belongingness, and satisfaction with life. The determinants demonstrating the weakest associations with healthy cognitive function, were physical activity, greenness and neighborhood deprivation.

Conclusion

Greater prioritization and integration of demographic and socioeconomic factors and lifestyle and health behaviors, such greater access to healthy foods and enhancing aid programs for low-income and immigrant families, into future health interventions and policies can produce the greatest gains in preserving healthy cognitive function in mid to late life.

Health System Change for Alzheimer's Disease-Modifying Therapies in Canada: Beginning the Discussion

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder that accounts for 60%-70% of patients with dementia, and it is estimated that over one million Canadians will be living with dementia by 2030. Disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) targeting the underlying pathophysiology of AD are currently in development. Several models have demonstrated that the potential arrival of Alzheimer's DMTs will most likely overwhelm the already-constrained Canadian healthcare system. Canada does not have a strategy to address the extensive requirements of using DMTs, including providing an early diagnosis of AD, confirming DMT eligibility via amyloid biomarkers, and conducting ongoing treatment monitoring. Thus, a multidisciplinary group of experts involved in AD care in Canada gathered to review (1) the current barriers to diagnosis and management of AD; (2) how existing clinic models, including those used in multiple sclerosis (MS), could be applied to address key barriers in AD; and (3) how to design and implement optimal care pathways in the future. The actions outlined in this review will help clinicians and healthcare systems improve readiness to integrate the use of disease-modifying therapies in Alzheimer's disease, if such therapies are approved in Canada.

Prevalence of dementia, heart disease and stroke in community-dwelling adults in Canada, 2016-2021: opportunities for joint prevention

INTRODUCTION

This aim of this study is to provide updated estimates on the prevalence of dementia, heart disease, and stroke in Canadian communities. Targeting all three conditions together, at the community level, may be key to disease prevention and health aging in the Canadian population.

METHODS

Using nationwide health survey data, we calculated the age-standardized prevalence of self-reported dementia, heart disease and stroke in adults aged 18 years and over residing in Canadian communities from 2016 to 2021. Poisson regression models were used to detect statistically significant changes in the prevalence of all three conditions from 2016 to 2021.

RESULTS

Less than 1% (~ 175,000 individuals) of adults residing in Canadian communities reported dementia, 5% (~ 1.5 million individuals) reported heart disease, and more than 1% (~ 370,000 individuals) reported stroke annually from 2016 to 2021. Overall, the age-standardized prevalence for stroke decreased minimally from 2016 to 2021 (p = 0.0004). Although the age-standardized prevalence of heart disease and dementia decreased from 2016 to 2018, subsequent increases in prevalence from 2018 to 2021 led to a lack of overall statistically significant changes from 2016 to 2021 (p = 0.10 for heart disease and p = 0.37 for dementia).

CONCLUSION

Recent increases in the prevalence of dementia, heart disease and stroke in Canadian communities threaten to reverse any gains in vascular disease prevention over the past six years. Findings reveal the urgent need for intensified prevention efforts that are community-based with a focus on joint reduction in the shared risk factors contributing to all three diseases.

Impact of interventions scenarios targeting three main vascular risk factors on the future burden of dementia in France

The epidemiological and societal burden of dementia is expected to increase in the coming decades due to the world population aging. In this context, the evaluation of the potential impact of intervention scenarios aiming at reducing the prevalence of dementia risk factors is an active area of research. However, such studies must account for the associated changes in mortality and the dependence between the risk factors. Using micro-simulations, this study aims to estimate the changes in dementia burden in France in 2040 according to intervention scenarios targeting the prevention or treatment of hypertension, diabetes and physical inactivity. Accounting for their communality and their effects on mortality, the results show that the disappearance of hypertension, diabetes and physical inactivity in France in 2020 could decrease dementia prevalence by 33% among men and 26% among women in 2040 and increase the life expectancy without dementia at age 65 by 3.4 years (men) and 2.6 years (women). Among the three factors, the prevention of hypertension would be the most efficient. These projections rely on current estimates of the risk of dementia and death associated with risk factors. Thanks to the R package developed they could be refined for different countries or different interventions and updated with new estimates.

Mechanisms and Clinical Manifestations of Cognitive Decline in Atrial Fibrillation Patients: Potential Implications for Preventing Dementia

Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients face an approximate 1.5-fold increased risk of cognitive decline compared with the general population. Among poststroke AF patients, the risk of cognitive decline is even higher with an estimated threefold increase. This article provides a narrative review on the current evidence and highlights gaps in knowledge and areas for future research. Although earlier studies hypothesized that the association between AF and cognitive decline is mainly a consequence of previous ischemic strokes, more recent evidence also suggests such an association in AF patients without a history of clinical stroke. Because AF and cognitive decline mainly occur among elderly individuals, it is not surprising that both entities share multiple risk factors. In addition to clinically overt ischemic strokes, silent brain infarcts and other brain injury are likely mechanisms for the increased risk of cognitive decline among AF patients. Oral anticoagulation for stroke prevention in AF patients with additional stroke risk factors is one of the only proven therapies to prevent brain injury. Whether a broader use of oral anticoagulation, or more intense anticoagulation in some patients are beneficial in this context needs to be addressed in future studies. Although direct studies are lacking, it is reasonable to recommend optimal treatment of comorbidities and risk factors for the prevention of cognitive decline and dementia.

Development and validation of the age-associated dementia policy (AgeD-Pol) computer simulation model in the USA and Europe

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a novel, microsimulation model that accounts for the prevalence and incidence of age-associated dementias (AAD), disease progression and associated mortality.

DESIGN, DATA SOURCES AND OUTCOME MEASURES

We developed the AAD policy (AgeD-Pol) model, a microsimulation model to simulate the natural history, morbidity and mortality associated with AAD. We populated the model with age-stratified and sex-stratified data on AAD prevalence, AAD incidence and mortality among people with AAD. We first performed internal validation using data from the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) cohort study. We then performed external validation of the model using data from the Framingham Heart Study, the Rotterdam Study and Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC). We compared model-projected AAD cumulative incidence and mortality with published cohort data using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE).

RESULTS

In internal validation, the AgeD-Pol model provided a good fit to the ACT cohort for cumulative AAD incidence, 10.4% (MAPE, 0.2%) and survival, 66.5% (MAPE, 8.8%), after 16 years of follow-up among those initially aged 65-69 years. In the external validations, the model-projected lifetime cumulative incidence of AAD was 30.5%-32.4% (females) and 16.7%-23.0% (males), using data from the Framingham and Rotterdam cohorts, and AAD cumulative incidence was 21.5% over 14 years using KPNC data. Model projections demonstrated a good fit to all three cohorts (MAPE, 0.9%-9.0%). Similarly, model-projected survival provided good fit to the Rotterdam (RMSE, 1.9-3.6 among those with and without AAD) and KPNC cohorts (RMSE, 7.6-18.0 among those with AAD).

CONCLUSIONS

The AgeD-Pol model performed well when validated to published data for AAD cumulative incidence and mortality and provides a useful tool to project the AAD disease burden for health systems planning in the USA.

Projected prevalence and incidence of dementia accounting for secular trends and birth cohort effects: a population-based microsimulation study

There is need for accurate projections of the future dementia burden to prepare healthcare systems and policymakers. Existing projections only account for population ageing, not for observed declines in age-specific dementia incidence of 13% per decade. We developed a dementia microsimulation model that synthesizes population-based data from the Rotterdam Study with changes in demographics between birth cohorts from the early 1900s onwards. We determined dementia prevalence and incidence until 2050 for three different dementia incidence trend scenarios: (1) stable age-specific incidence, (2) linear decline by 13% per decade, (3) nonlinear declines averaging 13% per decade. Assuming a stable age-specific incidence resulted in a 130% increase in incidence and 118% in prevalence between 2020 and 2050. By contrast, the linearly declining trend resulted in substantially smaller increases of 58% in incidence (95%CI: 29–87%), and 43% in prevalence (95%CI: 13–66%), corresponding to 39% lower incidence and 36% lower prevalence by 2050 than in the stable-incidence scenario. Results for various non-linear declines fell between the stable and linear trend. The future burden of dementia is highly susceptible to achievable changes in age-specific incidence. Extension of previously established secular trends globally would reduce widely upheld projections of new dementia cases until 2050 by 39%.

Using multiple imputation and intervention-based scenarios to project the mobility of older adults

Background

Projections of the development of mobility limitations of older adults are needed for evidence-based policy making. The aim of this study was to generate projections of mobility limitations among older people in the United States, England, and Finland.

Methods

We applied multiple imputation modelling with bootstrapping to generate projections of stair climbing and walking limitations until 2026. A physical activity intervention producing a beneficial effect on self-reported activities of daily living measures was identified in a comprehensive literature search and incorporated in the scenarios used in the projections. We utilised the harmonised longitudinal survey data from the Ageing Trajectories of Health – Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project (N = 24,982).

Results

Based on the scenarios from 2012 to 2026, the prevalence of walking limitations will decrease from 9.4 to 6.4%. A physical activity intervention would decrease the prevalence of stair climbing limitations compared with no intervention from 28.9 to 18.9% between 2012 and 2026.

Conclusions

A physical activity intervention implemented on older population seems to have a positive effect on maintaining mobility in the future. Our method provides an interesting option for generating projections by incorporating intervention-based scenarios.

Incidence of neurological and psychiatric comorbidity over time: a population-based cohort study in Ontario, Canada

INTRODUCTION

Comprehensive, population-based investigations of the extent and temporality of associations between common neurological and psychiatric disorders are scarce.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used linked health administrative data for Ontarians aged 40-85 years on 1 April 2002, to estimate the adjusted rate of incident dementia, Parkinson's disease (PD), stroke or mood/anxiety disorder (over 14 years) according to the presence and time since diagnosis of a prior disorder. Sex differences in the cumulative incidence of a later disorder were also examined.

RESULTS

The cohort included 5,283,546 Ontarians (mean age 56.2 ± 12.1 years, 52% female). The rate of dementia was significantly higher for those with prior PD (adjusted hazard ratio [adjHR] 4.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.99-4.11); stroke (adjHR 2.49, CI 2.47-2.52) and psychiatric disorder (adjHR 1.79, CI 1.78-1.80). The rate of PD was significantly higher for those with prior dementia (adjHR 2.23, CI 2.17-2.30) and psychiatric disorder (adjHR 1.77, CI 1.74-1.81). The rate of stroke was significantly higher among those with prior dementia (adjHR 1.56, CI 1.53-1.58). Prior dementia (adjHR 2.36, CI 2.33-2.39), PD (adjHR 1.80, CI 1.75-1.85) and stroke (adjHR 1.47, CI 1.45-1.49) were associated with a higher rate of an incident psychiatric disorder. Generally, associations were strongest in the 6 months following a prior diagnosis and demonstrated a J-shape relationship over time. Significant sex differences were evident in the absolute risks for several disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed nature of bidirectional associations between these neurological and psychiatric disorders indicates opportunities for earlier diagnosis and interventions to improve patient care.

Experiences and practices of caregiving for older persons living with dementia in African countries: A qualitative scoping review

BACKGROUND

The increasing awareness and diagnosis of dementia in Africa necessitate documentation of caregiving practices to understand local patterns and improve the quality of care. Caregiving in African communities is rooted in informal-communal social organization. This scoping review analyses caregiver characteristics and experiences, and practices of caregiving for persons living with dementia in Africa.

METHODS

A total of 152 references were retrieved, with 64 references obtained from PubMed, 85 from AJOL, and three from Scopus. Based on the relevance of titles, 83 references were further retained from PubMed (64), AJOL (16), and Scopus (3). A rapid review of abstracts was done in Distiller SR, and finally, six relevant articles were content-analyzed using Atlas ti 8.4 qualitative analysis software.

RESULTS

All six included studies were published between 2003 and 2018. Four themes were identified: article characteristics, caregiver characteristics, caregiver in context, and caregiver potentialities (challenges and opportunities). Studies reported findings from research conducted in four African countries: three from Nigeria, and one each from South Africa, Egypt, and Tanzania. Caregivers of persons living with dementia typically had eight years or less of formal education, were unpaid, and spent a daily average of 13 hours in caregiving. Cultural thresholds and individual caregiver differences underlie the interpretation of stressors across cultures. Caregivers lack the right training and information as well as support systems to improve their role performance and reduce accumulated stress.

CONCLUSION

In African countries, informational and educational platforms are essential for improved individual dementia caregiving, vis-à-vis strengthened roles of governments, and religious/traditional leaders and organizations.

A comparison of three strategies to reduce the burden of osteoarthritis: A population-based microsimulation study

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to compare three strategies for reducing population health burden of osteoarthritis (OA): improved pharmacological treatment of OA-related pain, improved access to joint replacement surgery, and prevention of OA by reducing obesity and overweight.

Methods

We applied a validated computer microsimulation model of OA in Canada. The model simulated a Canadian-representative open population aged 20 years and older. Variables in the model included demographics, body mass index, OA diagnosis, OA treatment, mortality, and health-related quality of life. Model parameters were derived from analyses of national surveys, population-based administrative data, a hospital-based cohort study, and the literature. We compared 8 what-if intervention scenarios in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) relative to base-case, over a wide range of time horizons.

Results

Reductions in DALYs depended on the type of intervention, magnitude of the intervention, and the time horizon. Medical interventions (a targeted increase in the use of painkillers) tended to produce effects quickly and were, therefore, most effective over a short time horizon (a decade). Surgical interventions (increased access to joint replacement) were most effective over a medium time horizon (two decades or longer). Preventive interventions required a substantial change in BMI to generate a significant impact, but produced more reduction in DALYs than treatment strategies over a very long time horizon (several decades).

Conclusions

In this population-based modeling study we assessed the potential impact of three different burden reduction strategies in OA. Data generated by our model may help inform the implementation of strategies to reduce the burden of OA in Canada and elsewhere.

Amyloid Burden in Alzheimer's Disease Patients Is Associated with Alterations in Circadian Rhythm

Background and Purpose

In this study we evaluated the relationship between amyloid-beta (Aβ) deposition and 3 aspects of sleep quality in a group of clinically diagnosed Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients.

Methods

We used self-report questionnaires to assess the quality of sleep using 3 previously established surveys: the Glasgow Sleep Effort Scale (GSES), the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), and the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ). These questionnaires focused on the sleep effort, sleep efficiency, and circadian rhythm patterns of each participant. Also, we evaluated the regional distribution of Aβ in the brain by amyloid positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) standardized uptake value ratios (SUVRs) in healthy normal (HN), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and AD dementia groups. The MCI and AD dementia groups were combined to form the group with cognitive impairment due to AD (CIAD).

Results

GSES and MEQ scores differed significantly between the HN, MCI, and AD dementia groups (p<0.037), whereas PSQI scores were similar across the groups (p=0.129). GSES and MEQ scores also differed between the HN and CIAD groups (p<0.018). Circadian rhythm scores positively correlated with amyloid PET-CT SUVR in posterior cingulate cortices (p<0.049).

Conclusions

Sleep effort and abnormal shifts in circadian rhythm were more significant in the CIAD group than in the HN group. At the same time, HN subjects had minimal sleep disturbance, irrespective of clinical status. Thus, alterations in circadian rhythm may be indicative of neurodegeneration due to Aβ deposition.

Survival in the Three Common Variants of Primary Progressive Aphasia: A Retrospective Study in a Tertiary Memory Clinic

Knowledge on the natural history of the three main variants of primary progressive aphasia (PPA) is lacking, particularly regarding mortality. Moreover, advanced stages and end of life issues are rarely discussed with caregivers and families at diagnosis, which can cause more psychological distress. We analyzed data from 83 deceased patients with a diagnosis of PPA. We studied survival in patients with a diagnosis of logopenic variant (lvPPA), semantic variant (svPPA), or non-fluent variant (nfvPPA) and examined causes of death. From medical records, we retrospectively collected data for each patient at several time points spanning five years before the first visit to death. When possible, interviews were performed with proxies of patients to complete missing data. Results showed that survival from symptom onset and diagnosis was significantly longer in svPPA than in lvPPA (p = 0.002) and nfvPPA (p < 0.001). No relevant confounders were associated with survival. Mean survival from symptom onset was 7.6 years for lvPPA, 7.1 years for nfvPPA, and 12 years for svPPA. The most common causes of death were natural cardio-pulmonary arrest and pneumonia. Aspiration pneumonia represented 23% of deaths in nfvPPA. In conclusion, this pilot study found significant differences in survival between the three variants of PPA with svPPA showing the longest and nfvPPA showing more neurologically-related causes of death.

Advance Requests for Medical Assistance in Dying in Dementia: a Survey Study of Dementia Care Specialists

Background

Current Canadian Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) legislation requires individuals to have the mental capacity to consent at the time of the procedure. Advance requests for MAiD (ARs for MAiD) could allow individuals to document conditions where MAiD would be desired in the setting of progressive dementia.

Methods

Greater Vancouver area dementia care clinicians from family practice, geriatric medicine, geriatric psychiatry, and palliative care were approached to participate in an online survey to assess attitudes around the appropriateness of ARs for MAiD. Quantitative analysis of survey questions and qualitative analysis of open-ended response questions were performed.

Results

Of 630 clinicians approached, 80 were included in the data analysis. 64% of respondents supported legislation allowing ARs for MAiD in dementia. 96% of respondents articulated barriers and concerns, including determination of capacity, protecting the interests of the future individual, navigating conflict among stakeholders, and identifying coercion. 78% of respondents agreed with a mandatory capacity assessment to create an AR, and 59% agreed that consensus between clinicians and substitute decision-makers was required to enact an AR.

Conclusion

The majority of Vancouver dementia care clinicians participating in this study support legislation allowing ARs for MAiD in dementia, while also articulating ethical and logistical concerns with its application.

Automated Midline Estimation for Symmetry Analysis of Cerebral Hemispheres in FLAIR MRI

To perform brain asymmetry studies in large neuroimaging archives, reliable and automatic detection of the interhemispheric fissure (IF) is needed to first extract the cerebral hemispheres. The detection of the IF is often referred to as mid-sagittal plane estimation, as this plane separates the two cerebral hemispheres. However, traditional planar estimation techniques fail when the IF presents a curvature caused by existing pathology or a natural phenomenon known as brain torque. As a result, midline estimates can be inaccurate. In this study, a fully unsupervised midline estimation technique is proposed that is comprised of three main stages: head angle correction, control point estimation and midline generation. The control points are estimated using a combination of intensity, texture, gradient, and symmetry-based features. As shown, the proposed method automatically adapts to IF curvature, is applied on a slice-to-slice basis for more accurate results and also provides accurate delineation of the midline in the septum pellucidum, which is a source of failure for traditional approaches. The method is compared to two state-of-the-art methods for midline estimation and is validated using 75 imaging volumes (~3,000 imaging slices) acquired from 38 centers of subjects with dementia and vascular disease. The proposed method yields the lowest average error across all metrics: Hausdorff distance (HD) was 0.32 ± 0.23, mean absolute difference (MAD) was 1.10 ± 0.38 mm and volume difference was 7.52 ± 5.40 and 5.35 ± 3.97 ml, for left and right hemispheres, respectively. Using the proposed method, the midline was extracted for 5,360 volumes (~275K images) from 83 centers worldwide, acquired by GE, Siemens and Philips scanners. An asymmetry index was proposed that automatically detected outlier segmentations (which were <1% of the total dataset). Using the extracted hemispheres, hemispheric asymmetry texture biomarkers of the normal-appearing brain matter (NABM) were analyzed in a dementia cohort, and significant differences in biomarker means were found across SCI and MCI and SCI and AD.

Mobile Apps to Support Family Caregivers of People With Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias in Managing Disruptive Behaviors: Qualitative Study With Users Embedded in a Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

People with Alzheimer disease and related dementias often display disruptive behaviors (eg, aggression, wandering, and restlessness), which increase family caregivers' burden of care. However, there are few tools currently available to help these caregivers manage disruptive behaviors. Mobile apps could meet this need, but to date little is known about them.

OBJECTIVE

The aims of our study were to identify existing mobile apps designed to support family caregivers of people with Alzheimer disease and related dementias in managing disruptive behaviors; explore whether family caregivers view these mobile apps as relevant to meeting their needs and as useful in managing disruptive behaviors; and document the types of mobile apps that are of interest and appeal to most family caregivers (with regard to format, ergonomics, and clarity).

METHODS

A review of mobile apps initially conducted in February 2018 was updated in March 2019 with 2 platforms (App Store [Apple Inc.] and Google Play [Google]). The selected apps were first analyzed independently by 3 raters (2 students and 1 researcher) for each of the platforms. A focus group discussion was then held with 4 family caregivers to explore their perceptions of the apps according to their needs and interests. The content of the discussion was analyzed.

RESULTS

Initially, 7 of 118 apps identified met the inclusion criteria. An eighth app, recommended by one of the knowledge users, was added later. Four family caregivers (women aged between 58 and 78 years) participated in the discussion. Participants expressed a preference for easy-to-understand apps that provide concrete intervention strategies. They reported being most inclined to use two apps, Dementia Advisor and DTA Behaviours.

CONCLUSIONS

Few mobile apps on the market meet the needs of family caregivers in terms of content and usability. Our results could help to address this gap by identifying what family caregivers deem relevant in a mobile app to help them manage disruptive behaviors.

Healthcare Professionals' Perspective on Implementing a Detector of Behavioural Disturbances in Long-Term Care Homes

The number of Canadians with dementia is expected to rise to 674,000 in the years to come. Finding ways to monitor behavioural disturbance in patients with dementia (PwDs) is crucial. PwDs can unintentionally behave in ways that are harmful to them and the people around them, such as other residents or care providers. Current practice does not involve technology to monitor PwD behaviours. Events are reported randomly by nonstaff members or when a staff member notices the absence of a PwD from a scheduled event. This study aims to explore the potential of implementing a novel detector of behavioural disturbances (DBD) in long-term care homes by mapping the perceptions of healthcare professionals and family members about this technology. Qualitative information was gathered from a focus group involving eight healthcare professionals working in a tertiary care facility and a partner of a resident admitted in the same facility. Thematic analysis resulted in three themes: (A) the ability of the DBD to detect relevant dementia-related behavioural disturbances that are typical of PwD; (B) the characteristics of the DBD and clinical needs and preferences; (C) the integration of the DBD into daily routines. The results tend to confirm the adequacy of the DBD to the day-to-day needs for the detection of behavioural disturbances and hazardous behaviours. The DBD was considered to be useful and easy to use in the tertiary care facility examined in this study. The participants intend to use the DBD in the future, which means that it has a high degree of acceptance.

Normal pressure hydrocephalus: Diagnostic delay

Introduction:

Normotensive hydrocephalus is a differential diagnosis in the evaluation of the dementia syndrome. The diagnostic protocols would allow detecting this pathology that has more effective treatment than other dementias.

Objective:

To describe a population with clinical suspicion of normal pressure hydrocephalus evaluated in a Colombian psychiatric hospital and discuss the possible reasons for its diagnostic and therapeutic delay.

Materials and methods:

We conducted a retrospective study of medical records to identify patients with suspected normal pressure hydrocephalus during a 5-year period.

Results:

Thirty-five patients with suspected normal pressure hydrocephalus underwent diagnostic lumbar puncture and five of them were considered candidates for a peritoneal-venous shunt, but none underwent this surgical procedure. After three to six months of the lumbar puncture, the gait pattern improved in 22.8% of the patients, cognition in 22.8%, and sphincter control in 11.4%. Improvement was not sustained in the long term (1 year) in any of them.

Conclusion:

This study suggests the poor implementation of the protocols for evaluating patients with cognitive deficits and delays in the diagnosis of normal pressure hydrocephalus. A small number of patients were identified as candidates for treatment. Normal pressure hydrocephalus is a potentially reversible clinical entity with the placement of a peritoneal ventricular shunt, but delays in diagnosis and treatment have deleterious consequences for patients and their families.

Does Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Increase the Risk for Dementia? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) is a putative risk factor for dementia; however, despite having apparent face validity, the evidence supporting this hypothesis remains inconclusive. Understanding the role of mTBI as a risk factor is becoming increasingly important given the high prevalence of mTBI, and the increasing societal burden of dementia. Objective: Our objective was to use the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) format to determine if an association exists between mTBI and dementia and related factors, and to quantify the degree of risk. Methods: In this format, two authors conducted independent database searches of PubMed, PsycInfo, and CINAHL using three search blocks to find relevant papers published between 2000 and 2020. Relevant studies were selected using pre-defined inclusion/exclusion criteria, and bias scoring was performed independently by the two authors before a subset of studies was selected for meta-analysis. Twenty-one studies met the inclusion criteria for this systematic review. Results: The meta-analysis yielded a pooled odds ratio of 1.96 (95% CI 1.698–2.263), meaning individuals were 1.96 times more likely to be diagnosed with dementia if they had a prior mTBI. Most studies examining neuropsychiatric and neuroimaging correlates of dementia found subtle, persistent changes after mTBI. Conclusion: These results indicate that mTBI is a risk factor for the development of dementia and causes subtle changes in performance on neuropsychiatric testing and brain structure in some patients.

Smart home technology solution for night-time wandering in persons with dementia

Introduction

More than half of persons with dementia will experience night-time wandering, increasing their risk of falls and unattended home exits. This is a major predictor of caregiver burnout and one of the major causes of early institutionalization.

Methods

Using smart home technologies such as sensors, smart bulbs, pressure mats and speakers, the Night-time Wandering Detection and Diversion system is designed to assist caregivers and persons with dementia that are at risk of wandering at night. Being placed in homes around Ottawa for a 12-week trial, the system allows caregivers to rest peacefully in the night, as it detects when the person with dementia gets out of bed and automatically provides cue lighting to guide them safely to the washroom. The system also uses prerecorded audio prompts, if they venture from the bedroom, only waking the caregiver when the person with dementia opens an exit door.

Results

Thus far, the average depression and anxiety in caregivers have been improved after the 12 weeks, and most have said that they sleep more peacefully.

Conclusion

The system has proven successful in supporting the safety of persons with dementia as well as their caregivers.

Generating national projections of dementia cases for Ireland using a calibrated macro-simulation model

INTRODUCTION

Epidemiological data on dementia is not available in many European countries and regions due to the high cost and complexity of conducting large scale dementia screening studies. The available epidemiological studies identify potentially substantial variation in the prevalence of dementia over time and across Europe.

METHODS

In this paper we generate simulations of the number of dementia cases in Ireland from 1991 to 2036 using a three-state Markov illness-death model. Parameters values are selected for each simulation from a range using a random parameter search pattern. We employ a novel calibration method which exploits the strong relationship between dementia, ageing and mortality. Simulation weights are generated based on differences between observed and modelled cohorts of older people and the reported number of deaths from dementia. Irish Census data from 1991 to 2016 and the number of recorded deaths due to dementia in 2018 are used as calibration points. A weighted average projection of the number of dementia cases is generated.

RESULTS

We estimate a weighted average number of cases of dementia in 2016 of 54 877 increasing to 98 946 in 2036; this estimate is substantially lower than the estimates generated using extrapolation methods. We show the wide range of possible outcomes given the range in the available parameter estimates and show that irrespective of whether the incidence rate of dementia is declining the number of cases of dementia is rapidly increasing due to population ageing.

CONCLUSION

Previous studies have used parameter estimates from meta-analyses of the literature or from individual studies. In this paper we supplement these with a calibration approach using observed cause of death and population age structure data. These additional sources of data can be used to generate estimates of dementia prevalence in any country or region which has census data and data on deaths due to dementia.

Cerebral palsy in Canada, 2011-2031: results of a microsimulation modelling study of epidemiological and cost impacts

INTRODUCTION

The objective of our study was to present model-based estimates and projections on current and future health and economic impacts of cerebral palsy in Canada over a 20-year time horizon (2011-2031).

METHODS

We used Statistics Canada's Population Health Model (POHEM)-Neurological to simulate individuals' disease states, risk factors and health determinants and to describe and project health outcomes, including disease incidence, prevalence, life expectancy, health-adjusted life expectancy, health-related quality of life and health care costs over the life cycle of Canadians. Cerebral palsy cases were identified from British Columbia's health administrative data sources. A population-based cohort was then used to generate the incidence and mortality rates, enabling the projection of future incidence and mortality rates. A utility-based measure (Health Utilities Index Mark 3) was also included in the model to reflect various states of functional health to allow projections of health-related quality of life. Finally, we estimated caregiving parameters and health care costs from Canadian national surveys and health administrative data and included them as model parameters to assess the health and economic impact of cerebral palsy.

RESULTS

Although the overall crude incidence rate of cerebral palsy is projected to remain stable, newly diagnosed cases of cerebral palsy will rise from approximately 1800 in 2011 to nearly 2200 in 2031. In addition, the number of people with the condition is expected to increase from more than 75 000 in 2011 to more than 94 000 in 2031. Direct health care costs in constant 2010 Canadian dollars were about $11 700 for children with cerebral palsy aged 1-4 years versus about $600 for those without the condition. In addition, people with cerebral palsy tend to have longer periods in poorer health-related quality of life.

CONCLUSION

Individuals with cerebral palsy will continue to face challenges related to an ongoing need for specialized medical care and a rising need for supportive services. Our study offers important insights into future costs and impacts associated with cerebral palsy and provides valuable information that could be used to develop targeted health programs and strategies for Canadians living with this condition.

Screening for Dementia Caused by Modifiable Lifestyle Choices Using Hybrid PET/MRI

Significant advances in positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) brain imaging in the early detection of dementia indicate that hybrid PET/MRI would be an effective tool to screen for dementia in the population living with lifestyle risk factors. Here we investigate the associated costs and benefits along with the needed imaging infrastructure. A demographic analysis determined the prevalence of dementia and its incidence. The expected value of the screening program was calculated assuming a sensitivity and specificity of 0.9, a prevalence of 0.1, a QALY factor of 0.348, a willingness to pay $114,000 CAD and the cost per PET/MRI scan of $2,000 CAD. It was assumed that each head PET/MRI could screen 3,000 individuals per year. The prevalence of dementia is increasing by almost two-fold every 20 years due to the increased population at ages where dementia is more prevalent. It has been shown that a five-year delay in the incidence of dementia would decrease the prevalence by some 45%. In Canada, a five-year delay corresponds to a health care savings of $27,000 CAD per subject per year. The expected value for screening was estimated at $23,745 CAD. The number of subjects to be screened per year in Canada, USA, and China between 60 and 79 was 11,405,000. The corresponding number of head-only hybrid PET/MRI systems needed is 3,800. A brain PET/MRI screening program is financially justifiable with respect to health care costs and justifies the continuing development of MRI compatible brain PET technology.

Present Algorithms and Future Treatments for Alzheimer's Disease

An estimated 47 million people live with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other forms of dementia worldwide. Although no disease-modifying treatments are currently available for AD, earlier diagnosis and proper management of the disease could have considerable impact on patient and caregiver quality of life and functioning. Drugs currently approved for AD treat the cognitive, behavioral, and functional symptoms of the disease and consist of three cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) and the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor antagonist memantine. Treatment of patients with mild to moderate AD is generally initiated with a ChEI. Patients who show progression of symptoms while on ChEI monotherapy may be switched to another ChEI and/or memantine can be added to the treatment regimen. In recent years, putative disease-modifying therapies have emerged that aim to slow the progression of AD instead of only addressing its symptoms. However, many therapies have failed in clinical trials in patients with established AD, suggesting that, once developed, disease-modifying agents may need to be deployed earlier in the course of illness. The goal of this narrative literature review is to discuss present treatment algorithms and potential future therapies in AD.

Persons with dementia and care partners’ perspectives on memory clinics in primary care

Aims: To understand persons with dementia (PWD) and care partners’ experiences with the Primary Care Collaborative Memory Clinic (PCCMC) care model. Methods: Interviews were conducted with a purposeful sample of PWD (n = 12) and care partners (N = 16) to identify their perspectives of care received in the clinic and suggestions for improvement. Results: PWD and care partners were satisfied with care received within the PCCMC, had positive interactions with and perceived a strong sense of support from team members and felt listened to; the necessity of cognitive testing was recognized but disliked. Conclusions: The PCCMC care model can address many existing gaps in dementia care as experienced by PWD and care partners.

Understanding the educational and support needs of informal care-givers of people with dementia attending an outpatient geriatric assessment clinic

Informal (unpaid) care-givers of older people with dementia experience stress and isolation, causing physical and psychiatric morbidity. Comprehensive geriatric assessment clinics represent an important geriatrician-led model of dementia care. Our qualitative study examined the educational and support needs of care-givers of people diagnosed with dementia at a geriatric assessment clinic, resources used to address those needs and challenges experienced in doing so. We conducted structured thematic analysis of interviews with 18 informal care-givers. Participants’ narratives reflected four themes. First, care-givers sought information from varied sources, including the Alzheimer Society, the internet and clinic staff. Responsive behaviours, the expected progression of dementia and system navigation were topics of particular interest. Second, care-givers obtained assistance from public, for-profit and voluntary sources. Third, care-givers received little assistance. Two-thirds received fewer than four hours of help weekly from all sources combined, and none more than 15. Several received no assistance whatsoever. Publicly funded support workers’ tasks, and their timing, were often unhelpful. Finally, while numerous care-givers felt physical and emotional strain, and worried about how poor health impaired their care-giving, many hesitated to seek help. The needs of this unique population of informal care-givers can be met by improved home-care service flexibility, and access to trustworthy information about the expected progression of dementia and skills for managing behavioural and psychological symptoms.

A Rational Structured Epitope Defines a Distinct Subclass of Toxic Amyloid-beta Oligomers

Oligomers of amyloid-β (AβO) are deemed key in synaptotoxicity and amyloid seeding of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of AβO and inadequate markers for AβO subtypes have stymied effective AβO identification and therapeutic targeting in vivo. We identified an AβO-subclass epitope defined by differential solvent orientation of the lysine 28 side chain in a constrained loop of serine-asparagine-lysine (cSNK), rarely displayed in molecular dynamics simulations of monomer and fibril ensembles. A mouse monoclonal antibody targeting AβO^cSNK recognizes ∼50-60 kDa SDS-resistant soluble Aβ assemblages in AD brain and prolongs the lag phase of Aβ aggregation in vitro. Acute peripheral infusion of a murine IgG1 anti-AβO^cSNK in two AD mouse models reduced soluble brain Aβ aggregates by 20-30%. Chronic cSNK peptide immunization of APP/PS1 mice engendered an anti-AβO^cSNK IgG1 response without epitope spreading to Aβ monomers or fibrils and was accompanied by preservation of global PSD95 expression and improved cued fear memory. Our data indicate that the oligomer subtype AβO^cSNK participates in synaptotoxicity and propagation of Aβ aggregation in vitro and in vivo.

Naturalistic Driving: A Framework and Advances in Using Big Data

Driving is an activity that facilitates physical, cognitive, and social stimulation in older adults, ultimately leading to better physical and cognitive health. However, aging is associated with declines in vision, physical health, and cognitive health, all of which can affect driving ability. One way of assessing driving ability is with the use of sensors in the older adult’s own vehicle. This paper provides a framework for driving assessment and addresses how naturalistic driving studies can assist in such assessments. The framework includes driving characteristics (how much driving, speed, position, type of road), actions and reactions (lane changes, intersections, passing, merging, traffic lights, pedestrians, other vehicles), destinations (variety and distance, sequencing and route planning), and driving conditions (time of day and season). Data from a subset of Ottawa drivers from the Candrive study is used to illustrate the use of naturalistic driving data. Challenges in using naturalistic driving big data and the changing technology in vehicles are discussed.

Evaluating dementia home care practices: The reification of care norms

This critical ethnographic study examined how power relations shape the nature and enactment of caregivers' evaluation of home-based dementia care practices. As the home care sector continues to evolve and prepare itself as a key element in caring for people living with dementia and their families, this study grounds our understanding of how dementia home care practices are enacted and evaluated, particularly at the interface of formal and familial caregiving. The critical finding from our data is that not all evaluations of care practices were considered equally meaningful or relevant, and, moreover, their significance depended on whether the evaluation was made by someone in a position of power. Renewed awareness of and attention to power relations, such as class and gender, are implicated in the evaluation of care practices. Consequently, challenging how power is enacted in ways that (re)produces and reifies care norms is vital in order to foster equitable and supportive partnerships in home-based dementia care.