Development and validation of a trans-ancestry polygenic risk score for type 2 diabetes in diverse populations

The association between air pollutant exposure and cerebral small vessel disease imaging markers with modifying effects of PRS-defined genetic susceptibility

Studies have highlighted a possible link between air pollution and cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) imaging markers. However, the exact association and effects of polygenic risk score (PRS) defined genetic susceptibility remains unclear. This cross-sectional study used data from the UK Biobank. Participants aged 40-69 years were recruited between the year 2006 and 2010. The annual average concentrations of NOX, NO2, PM2.5, PM2.5-10, PM2.5 absorbance, and PM10, were estimated, and joint exposure to multiple air pollutants was reflected in the air pollution index (APEX). Air pollutant exposure was classified into the low (T1), intermediate (T2), and high (T3) tertiles. Three CSVD markers were used: white matter hyper-intensity (WMH), mean diffusivity (MD), and fractional anisotropy (FA). The first principal components of the MD and FA measures in the 48 white matter tracts were analysed. The sample consisted of 44,470 participants from the UK Biobank. The median (T1-T3) concentrations of pollutants were as follows: NO2, 25.5 (22.4-28.7) μg/m3; NOx, 41.3 (36.2-46.7) μg/m3; PM10, 15.9 (15.4-16.4) μg/m3; PM2.5, 9.9 (9.5-10.3) μg/m3; PM2.5 absorbance, 1.1 (1.0-1.2) per metre; and PM2.5-10, 6.1 (5.9-6.3) μg/m3. Compared with the low group, the high group's APEX, NOX, and PM2.5 levels were associated with increased WMH volumes, and the estimates (95 %CI) were 0.024 (0.003, 0.044), 0.030 (0.010, 0.050), and 0.032 (0.011, 0.053), respectively, after adjusting for potential confounders. APEX, PM10, PM2.5 absorbance, and PM2.5-10 exposure in the high group were associated with increased FA values compared to that in the low group. Sex-specific analyses revealed associations only in females. Regarding the combined associations of air pollutant exposure and PRS-defined genetic susceptibility with CSVD markers, the associations of NO2, NOX, PM2.5, and PM2.5-10 with WMH were more profound in females with low PRS-defined genetic susceptibility, and the associations of PM10, PM2.5, and PM2.5 absorbance with FA were more profound in females with higher PRS-defined genetic susceptibility. Our study demonstrated that air pollutant exposure may be associated with CSVD imaging markers, with females being more susceptible, and that PRS-defined genetic susceptibility may modify the associations of air pollutants.

Trans-Ancestral Genetic Risk Factors for Treatment-Related Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Survivors of Childhood Cancer

PURPOSE

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is a prevalent long-term complication of treatment in survivors of childhood cancer, with marked racial/ethnic differences in burden. In this study, we investigated trans-ancestral genetic risks for treatment-related T2D.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Leveraging whole-genome sequencing data from the St Jude Lifetime Cohort (N = 3,676, 304 clinically ascertained cases), we conducted ancestry-specific genome-wide association studies among survivors of African and European genetic ancestry (AFR and EUR, respectively) followed by trans-ancestry meta-analysis. Trans-/within-ancestry replication including data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (N = 5,965) was required for prioritization. Three external general population T2D polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were assessed, including multiancestry PRSs. Treatment risk effect modification was evaluated for prioritized loci.

RESULTS

Four novel T2D risk loci showing trans-/within-ancestry replication evidence were identified, with three loci achieving genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8). Among these, common variants at 5p15.2 (LINC02112), 2p25.3 (MYT1L), and 19p12 (ZNF492) showed evidence of modifying alkylating agent-related T2D risk in both ancestral groups, but showed disproportionately greater risk in AFR survivors (AFR odds ratios [ORs], 3.95-17.81; EUR ORs, 2.37-3.32). In survivor-specific RNA-sequencing data (N = 207), the 19p12 locus variant was associated with greater ZNF492 expression dysregulation after exposures to alkylators. Elevated T2D risks across ancestry groups were only observed with increasing values for multiancestry T2D PRSs and were especially increased among survivors treated with alkylators (top v bottom quintiles: ORAFR, 20.18; P = .023; OREUR, 13.44; P = 1.3 × 10-9).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest therapy-related genetic risks contribute to the increased T2D burden among non-Hispanic Black childhood cancer survivors. Additional study of how therapy-related genetic susceptibility contributes to this disparity is needed.

Genetic Risk, Healthy Lifestyle Adherence, and Risk of Developing Diabetes in the Japanese Population

AIM

This study examined the relationship between genetic risk, healthy lifestyle, and risk of developing diabetes.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included 11,014 diabetes-free individuals ≥ 20 years old from the Tohoku Medical Megabank Community-based cohort study. Lifestyle scores, including the body mass index, smoking, physical activity, and gamma-glutamyl transferase (marker of alcohol consumption), were assigned, and participants were categorized into ideal, intermediate, and poor lifestyles. A polygenic risk score (PRS) was constructed based on the type 2 diabetes loci from the BioBank Japan study. A multiple logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between genetic risk, healthy lifestyle, and diabetes incidence and to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULT

Of the 11,014 adults included (67.8% women; mean age [standard deviation], 59.1 [11.3] years old), 297 (2.7%) developed diabetes during a mean 4.3 (0.8) years of follow-up. Genetic and lifestyle score is independently associated with the development of diabetes. Compared with the low genetic risk and ideal lifestyle groups, the odds ratio was 3.31 for the low genetic risk and poor lifestyle group. When the PRS was integrated into a model including the lifestyle and family history, the AUROC significantly improved to 0.719 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.692-0.747) compared to a model including only the lifestyle and family history (0.703 [95% CI, 0.674-0.732]).

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that adherence to a healthy lifestyle is important for preventing diabetes, regardless of genetic risk. In addition, genetic risk might provide information beyond lifestyle and family history to stratify individuals at high risk of developing diabetes.

Genomic Insights for Personalized Care: Motivating At-Risk Individuals Toward Evidence-Based Health Practices

Background

Lung cancer and tobacco use pose significant global health challenges, necessitating a comprehensive translational roadmap for improved prevention strategies. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are powerful tools for patient risk stratification but have not yet been widely used in primary care for lung cancer, particularly in diverse patient populations.

Methods

We propose the GREAT care paradigm, which employs PRSs to stratify disease risk and personalize interventions. We developed PRSs using large-scale multi-ancestry genome-wide association studies and standardized PRS distributions across all ancestries. We applied our PRSs to 796 individuals from the GISC Trial, 350,154 from UK Biobank (UKBB), and 210,826 from All of Us Research Program (AoU), totaling 561,776 individuals of diverse ancestry.

Results

Significant odds ratios (ORs) for lung cancer and difficulty quitting smoking were observed in both UKBB and AoU. For lung cancer, the ORs for individuals in the highest risk group (top 20% versus bottom 20%) were 1.85 (95% CI: 1.58 - 2.18) in UKBB and 2.39 (95% CI: 1.93 - 2.97) in AoU. For difficulty quitting smoking, the ORs (top 33% versus bottom 33%) were 1.36 (95% CI: 1.32 - 1.41) in UKBB and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.28 - 1.36) in AoU.

Conclusion

Our PRS-based intervention model leverages large-scale genetic data for robust risk assessment across populations. This model will be evaluated in two cluster-randomized clinical trials aimed at motivating health behavior changes in high-risk patients of diverse ancestry. This pioneering approach integrates genomic insights into primary care, promising improved outcomes in cancer prevention and tobacco treatment.

Variant level heritability estimates of type 2 diabetes in African Americans

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is caused by both genetic and environmental factors and is associated with an increased risk of cardiorenal complications and mortality. Though disproportionately affected by the condition, African Americans (AA) are largely underrepresented in genetic studies of T2D, and few estimates of heritability have been calculated in this race group. Using genome-wide association study (GWAS) data paired with phenotypic data from ~ 19,300 AA participants of the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, Genetics of Hypertension Associated Treatments (GenHAT) study, and the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) network, we estimated narrow-sense heritability using two methods: Linkage-Disequilibrium Adjusted Kinships (LDAK) and Genome-Wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA). Study-level heritability estimates adjusting for age, sex, and genetic ancestry ranged from 18% to 34% across both methods. Overall, the current study narrows the expected range for T2D heritability in this race group compared to prior estimates, while providing new insight into the genetic basis of T2D in AAs for ongoing genetic discovery efforts.

Multi-ancestry polygenic risk scores for venous thromboembolism

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality, with large disparities in incidence rates between Black and White Americans. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) limited to variants discovered in genome-wide association studies in European-ancestry samples can identify European-ancestry individuals at high risk of VTE. However, there is limited evidence on whether high-dimensional PRS constructed using more sophisticated methods and more diverse training data can enhance the predictive ability and their utility across diverse populations. We developed PRSs for VTE using summary statistics from the International Network against Venous Thrombosis (INVENT) consortium genome-wide association studies meta-analyses of European- (71 771 cases and 1 059 740 controls) and African-ancestry samples (7482 cases and 129 975 controls). We used LDpred2 and PRS-CSx to construct ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRSs and evaluated their performance in an independent European- (6781 cases and 103 016 controls) and African-ancestry sample (1385 cases and 12 569 controls). Multi-ancestry PRSs with weights tuned in European-ancestry samples slightly outperformed ancestry-specific PRSs in European-ancestry test samples (e.g. the area under the receiver operating curve [AUC] was 0.609 for PRS-CSx_combinedEUR and 0.608 for PRS-CSxEUR [P = 0.00029]). Multi-ancestry PRSs with weights tuned in African-ancestry samples also outperformed ancestry-specific PRSs in African-ancestry test samples (PRS-CSxAFR: AUC = 0.58, PRS-CSx_combined AFR: AUC = 0.59), although this difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.34). The highest fifth percentile of the best-performing PRS was associated with 1.9-fold and 1.68-fold increased risk for VTE among European- and African-ancestry subjects, respectively, relative to those in the middle stratum. These findings suggest that the multi-ancestry PRS might be used to improve performance across diverse populations to identify individuals at highest risk for VTE.

Optimizing clinico-genomic disease prediction across ancestries: a machine learning strategy with Pareto improvement

BACKGROUND

Accurate prediction of an individual's predisposition to diseases is vital for preventive medicine and early intervention. Various statistical and machine learning models have been developed for disease prediction using clinico-genomic data. However, the accuracy of clinico-genomic prediction of diseases may vary significantly across ancestry groups due to their unequal representation in clinical genomic datasets.

METHODS

We introduced a deep transfer learning approach to improve the performance of clinico-genomic prediction models for data-disadvantaged ancestry groups. We conducted machine learning experiments on multi-ancestral genomic datasets of lung cancer, prostate cancer, and Alzheimer's disease, as well as on synthetic datasets with built-in data inequality and distribution shifts across ancestry groups.

RESULTS

Deep transfer learning significantly improved disease prediction accuracy for data-disadvantaged populations in our multi-ancestral machine learning experiments. In contrast, transfer learning based on linear frameworks did not achieve comparable improvements for these data-disadvantaged populations.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that deep transfer learning can enhance fairness in multi-ancestral machine learning by improving prediction accuracy for data-disadvantaged populations without compromising prediction accuracy for other populations, thus providing a Pareto improvement towards equitable clinico-genomic prediction of diseases.

Combined polygenic scores for ischemic stroke risk factors aid risk assessment of ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

Current risk assessment for ischemic stroke (IS) is limited to clinical variables. We hypothesize that polygenic scores (PGS) of IS (PGSIS) and IS-associated diseases such as atrial fibrillation (AF), venous thromboembolism (VTE), coronary artery disease (CAD), hypertension (HTN), and Type 2 diabetes (T2D) may improve the performance of IS risk assessment.

METHODS

Incident IS was followed for 479,476 participants in the UK Biobank who did not have an IS diagnosis prior to the recruitment. Lifestyle variables (obesity, smoking and alcohol) at the time of study recruitment, clinical diagnoses of IS-associated diseases, PGSIS, and five PGSs for IS-associated diseases were tested using the Cox proportional-hazards model. Predictive performance was assessed using the C-statistic and net reclassification index (NRI).

RESULTS

During a median average 12.5-year follow-up, 8374 subjects were diagnosed with IS. Known clinical variables (age, gender, clinical diagnoses of IS-associated diseases, obesity, and smoking) and PGSIS were all independently associated with IS (P < 0.001). In addition, PGSIS and each PGS for IS-associated diseases was also independently associated with IS (P < 0.001). Compared to the clinical model, a joint clinical/PGS model improved the C-statistic for predicting IS from 0.71 to 0.73 (P < 0.001) and significantly reclassified IS risk (NRI = 0.017, P < 0.001), and 6.48% of subjects were upgraded from low to high risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding PGSs of IS and IS-associated diseases to known clinical risk factors statistically improved risk assessment for IS, demonstrating the supplementary value of inherited susceptibility measurement . However, its clinical utility is likely limited due to modest improvements in predictive values.

Multi-Ancestry Polygenic Risk Score for Coronary Heart Disease Based on an Ancestrally Diverse Genome-Wide Association Study and Population-Specific Optimization

BACKGROUND

Predictive performance of polygenic risk scores (PRS) varies across populations. To facilitate equitable clinical use, we developed PRS for coronary heart disease (CHD; PRSCHD) for 5 genetic ancestry groups.

METHODS

We derived ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRSCHD based on pruning and thresholding (PRSPT) and ancestry-based continuous shrinkage priors (PRSCSx) applied to summary statistics from the largest multi-ancestry genome-wide association study meta-analysis for CHD to date, including 1.1 million participants from 5 major genetic ancestry groups. Following training and optimization in the Million Veteran Program, we evaluated the best-performing PRSCHD in 176,988 individuals across 9 diverse cohorts.

RESULTS

Multi-ancestry PRSPT and PRSCSx outperformed ancestry-specific PRSPT and PRSCSx across a range of tuning values. Two best-performing multi-ancestry PRSCHD (ie, PRSPTmult and PRSCSxmult) and 1 ancestry-specific (PRSCSxEUR) were taken forward for validation. PRSPTmult demonstrated the strongest association with CHD in individuals of South Asian ancestry and European ancestry (odds ratio per 1 SD [95% CI, 2.75 [2.41-3.14], 1.65 [1.59-1.72]), followed by East Asian ancestry (1.56 [1.50-1.61]), Hispanic/Latino ancestry (1.38 [1.24-1.54]), and African ancestry (1.16 [1.11-1.21]). PRSCSxmult showed the strongest associations in South Asian ancestry (2.67 [2.38-3.00]) and European ancestry (1.65 [1.59-1.71]), lower in East Asian ancestry (1.59 [1.54-1.64]), Hispanic/Latino ancestry (1.51 [1.35-1.69]), and the lowest in African ancestry (1.20 [1.15-1.26]).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of summary statistics from a large multi-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis improved the performance of PRSCHD in most ancestry groups compared with single-ancestry methods. Despite the use of one of the largest and most diverse sets of training and validation cohorts to date, improvement of predictive performance was limited in African ancestry. This highlights the need for larger genome-wide association study datasets of underrepresented populations to enhance the performance of PRSCHD.

Polygenic Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in African Americans

African Americans (AAs) have been underrepresented in polygenic risk score (PRS) studies. Here, we integrated genome-wide data from multiple observational studies on type 2 diabetes (T2D), encompassing a total of 101,987 AAs, to train and optimize an AA-focused T2D PRS (PRSAA), using a Bayesian polygenic modeling method. We further tested the score in three independent studies with a total of 7,275 AAs and compared the PRSAA with other published scores. Results show that a 1-SD increase in the PRSAA was associated with 40-60% increase in the odds of T2D (odds ratio [OR] 1.60, 95% CI 1.37-1.88; OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.16-1.70; and OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.30-1.62) across three testing cohorts. These models captured 1.0-2.6% of the variance (R2) in T2D on the liability scale. The positive predictive values for three calculated score thresholds (the top 2%, 5%, and 10%) ranged from 14 to 35%. The PRSAA, in general, performed similarly to existing T2D PRS. The need remains for larger data sets to continue to evaluate the utility of within-ancestry scores in the AA population.

ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS

Screening embryos for polygenic disease risk: a review of epidemiological, clinical, and ethical considerations

BACKGROUND

The genetic composition of embryos generated by in vitro fertilization (IVF) can be examined with preimplantation genetic testing (PGT). Until recently, PGT was limited to detecting single-gene, high-risk pathogenic variants, large structural variants, and aneuploidy. Recent advances have made genome-wide genotyping of IVF embryos feasible and affordable, raising the possibility of screening embryos for their risk of polygenic diseases such as breast cancer, hypertension, diabetes, or schizophrenia. Despite a heated debate around this new technology, called polygenic embryo screening (PES; also PGT-P), it is already available to IVF patients in some countries. Several articles have studied epidemiological, clinical, and ethical perspectives on PES; however, a comprehensive, principled review of this emerging field is missing.

OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE

This review has four main goals. First, given the interdisciplinary nature of PES studies, we aim to provide a self-contained educational background about PES to reproductive specialists interested in the subject. Second, we provide a comprehensive and critical review of arguments for and against the introduction of PES, crystallizing and prioritizing the key issues. We also cover the attitudes of IVF patients, clinicians, and the public towards PES. Third, we distinguish between possible future groups of PES patients, highlighting the benefits and harms pertaining to each group. Finally, our review, which is supported by ESHRE, is intended to aid healthcare professionals and policymakers in decision-making regarding whether to introduce PES in the clinic, and if so, how, and to whom.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched for PubMed-indexed articles published between 1/1/2003 and 1/3/2024 using the terms 'polygenic embryo screening', 'polygenic preimplantation', and 'PGT-P'. We limited the review to primary research papers in English whose main focus was PES for medical conditions. We also included papers that did not appear in the search but were deemed relevant.

OUTCOMES

The main theoretical benefit of PES is a reduction in lifetime polygenic disease risk for children born after screening. The magnitude of the risk reduction has been predicted based on statistical modelling, simulations, and sibling pair analyses. Results based on all methods suggest that under the best-case scenario, large relative risk reductions are possible for one or more diseases. However, as these models abstract several practical limitations, the realized benefits may be smaller, particularly due to a limited number of embryos and unclear future accuracy of the risk estimates. PES may negatively impact patients and their future children, as well as society. The main personal harms are an unindicated IVF treatment, a possible reduction in IVF success rates, and patient confusion, incomplete counselling, and choice overload. The main possible societal harms include discarded embryos, an increasing demand for 'designer babies', overemphasis of the genetic determinants of disease, unequal access, and lower utility in people of non-European ancestries. Benefits and harms will vary across the main potential patient groups, comprising patients already requiring IVF, fertile people with a history of a severe polygenic disease, and fertile healthy people. In the United States, the attitudes of IVF patients and the public towards PES seem positive, while healthcare professionals are cautious, sceptical about clinical utility, and concerned about patient counselling.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS

The theoretical potential of PES to reduce risk across multiple polygenic diseases requires further research into its benefits and harms. Given the large number of practical limitations and possible harms, particularly unnecessary IVF treatments and discarded viable embryos, PES should be offered only within a research context before further clarity is achieved regarding its balance of benefits and harms. The gap in attitudes between healthcare professionals and the public needs to be narrowed by expanding public and patient education and providing resources for informative and unbiased genetic counselling.

AI-enhanced integration of genetic and medical imaging data for risk assessment of Type 2 diabetes

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) presents a formidable global health challenge, highlighted by its escalating prevalence, underscoring the critical need for precision health strategies and early detection initiatives. Leveraging artificial intelligence, particularly eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), we devise robust risk assessment models for T2D. Drawing upon comprehensive genetic and medical imaging datasets from 68,911 individuals in the Taiwan Biobank, our models integrate Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS), Multi-image Risk Scores (MRS), and demographic variables, such as age, sex, and T2D family history. Here, we show that our model achieves an Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC) of 0.94, effectively identifying high-risk T2D subgroups. A streamlined model featuring eight key variables also maintains a high AUC of 0.939. This high accuracy for T2D risk assessment promises to catalyze early detection and preventive strategies. Moreover, we introduce an accessible online risk assessment tool for T2D, facilitating broader applicability and dissemination of our findings.

Integrative common and rare variant analyses provide insights into the genetic architecture of liver cirrhosis

We report a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study on liver cirrhosis and its associated endophenotypes, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and γ-glutamyl transferase. Using data from 12 cohorts, including 18,265 cases with cirrhosis, 1,782,047 controls, up to 1 million individuals with liver function tests and a validation cohort of 21,689 cases and 617,729 controls, we identify and validate 14 risk associations for cirrhosis. Many variants are located near genes involved in hepatic lipid metabolism. One of these, PNPLA3 p.Ile148Met, interacts with alcohol intake, obesity and diabetes on the risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We develop a polygenic risk score that associates with the progression from cirrhosis to HCC. By focusing on prioritized genes from common variant analyses, we find that rare coding variants in GPAM associate with lower ALT, supporting GPAM as a potential target for therapeutic inhibition. In conclusion, this study provides insights into the genetic underpinnings of cirrhosis.

Impact of the trans-ancestry polygenic risk score on type 2 diabetes risk, onset age and progression among population in Taiwan

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence in adults at a younger age has increased but the disease status may go unnoticed. This study aimed to determine whether the onset age and subsequent diabetic complications can be attributed to the polygenic architecture of T2D in the Taiwan Han population. A total of 9,627 cases with T2D and 85,606 controls from the Taiwan Biobank were enrolled. Three diabetic polygenic risk scores (PRSs), PRS_EAS and PRS_EUR, and a trans-ancestry PRS (PRS_META), calculated using summary statistic from East Asian and European populations. The onset age was identified by linking to the National Taiwan Insurance Research Database, and the incidence of different diabetic complications during follow-up was recorded. PRS_META (7.4%) explained a higher variation for T2D status. And the higher percentile of PRS is also correlated with higher percentage of T2D family history and prediabetes status. More, the PRS was negatively associated with onset age (β = -0.91 yr), and this was more evident among males (β = -1.11 vs. -0.76 for males and females, respectively). The hazard ratio of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and diabetic foot were significantly associated with PRS_EAS and PRS_META, respectively. However, the PRS was not associated with other diabetic complications, including diabetic nephropathy, cardiovascular disease, and hypertension. Our findings indicated that diabetic PRS which combined susceptibility variants from cross-population could be used as a tool for early screening of T2D, especially for high-risk populations, such as individuals with high genetic risk, and may be associated with the risk of complications in subjects with T2D. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Our findings indicated that diabetic polygenic risk score (PRS) which combined susceptibility variants from Asian and European population affect the onset age of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and could be used as a tool for early screening of T2D, especially for individuals with high genetic risk, and may be associated with the risk of diabetic complications among people in Taiwan.

The Role of Genomic-Informed Risk Assessments in Predicting Dementia Outcomes

Importance

By integrating genetic and clinical risk factors into genomic-informed dementia risk reports, healthcare providers can offer patients detailed risk profiles to facilitate understanding of individual risk and support the implementation of personalized strategies for promoting brain health.

Objective

To develop a genomic-informed risk assessment composed of family history, genetic, and clinical risk factors and, in turn, evaluate how the risk assessment predicted incident dementia.

Design

This longitudinal study included data from two clinical case-control cohorts with an average of 6.6 visits. Secondary analyses were conducted from July 2023 - March 2024.

Setting

Data were previously collected across multiple US locations from 1994 to 2023.

Participants

Older adults aged 55+ with whole-genome sequencing and dementia-free at baseline.

Exposures

An additive score comprising the modified Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia Risk Score (mCAIDE), family history of dementia, APOE genotype, and an AD polygenic risk score.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The risk of progression to all-cause dementia was evaluated using Cox-proportional hazard models (hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals [OR 9%CI]).

Results

A total of 3,429 older adults were included (aged 75 ± 7 years; 59% female; 75% non-Latino White, 15% Black, 5.2% Latino, 3.6% other, and 0.4% Asian; 27% MCI), with 751 participants progressing to dementia. The most common high-risk indicator was a family history of dementia (56%), followed by APOE*ε4 genotype (36%), high mCAIDE score (34%), and high AD-PRS (11%). Most participants had at least one high-risk indicator, with 39% having one, 32% two, 9.8% three, and 1% four. The presence of 1, 2, 3, or 4 risk indicators was associated with a doubling (HR = 1.72, CI: 1.34-2.22, p = 2.5e-05), tripling (HR = 3.09, CI: 2.41-3.95, p = 4.4e-19), quadrupling (HR = 4.46, CI: 3.34-5.94, p = 2.2e-24), and a twelvefold increase (HR = 12.15, CI: 7.33-20.14, p = 3.2e-22) in dementia risk.

Conclusion & Relevance

We found that most participants in memory and aging clinics had at least one high-risk indicator for dementia. Furthermore, we observed a dose-response relationship where a greater number of risk indicators was associated with an increased risk of incident dementia.

Genome-wide association study and trans-ethnic meta-analysis identify novel susceptibility loci for type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is under-investigated in the Middle East, despite the rapidly growing disease prevalence. We aimed to define the genetic determinants of T2D in Qatar.

METHODS

Using whole genome sequencing of 11,436 participants (2765 T2D cases and 8671 controls) from the population-based Qatar Biobank (QBB), we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of T2D with and without body mass index (BMI) adjustment.

RESULTS

We replicated 93 known T2D-associated loci in a BMI-unadjusted model, while 96 known loci were replicated in a BMI-adjusted model. The effect sizes and allele frequencies of replicated SNPs in the Qatari population generally concurred with those from European populations. We identified a locus specific to our cohort located between the APOBEC3H and CBX7 genes in the BMI-unadjusted model. Also, we performed a transethnic meta-analysis of our cohort with a previous GWAS on T2D in multi-ancestry individuals (180,834 T2D cases and 1,159,055 controls). One locus in DYNC2H1 gene reached genome-wide significance in the meta-analysis. Assessing polygenic risk scores derived from European- and multi-ancestries in the Qatari population showed higher predictive performance of the multi-ancestry panel compared to the European panel.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides new insights into the genetic architecture of T2D in a Middle Eastern population and identifies genes that may be explored further for their involvement in T2D pathogenesis.

Comparing ancestry calibration approaches for a trans-ancestry colorectal cancer polygenic risk score

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a complex disease with monogenic, polygenic and environmental risk factors. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are being developed to identify high polygenic risk individuals. Due to differences in genetic background, PRS distributions vary by ancestry, necessitating calibration.

Methods

We compared four calibration methods using the All of Us Research Program Whole Genome Sequence data for a CRC PRS previously developed in participants of European and East Asian ancestry. The methods contrasted results from linear models with A) the entire data set or an ancestrally diverse training set AND B) covariates including principal components of ancestry or admixture. Calibration with the training set adjusted the variance in addition to the mean.

Results

All methods performed similarly within ancestry with OR (95% C.I.) per s.d. change in PRS: African 1.5 (1.02, 2.08), Admixed American 2.2 (1.27, 3.85), European 1.6 (1.43, 1.89), and Middle Eastern 1.1 (0.71, 1.63). Using admixture and an ancestrally diverse training set provided distributions closest to standard Normal with accurate upper tail frequencies.

Conclusion

Although the PRS is predictive of CRC risk for most ancestries, its performance varies by ancestry. Post-hoc calibration preserves the risk prediction within ancestries. Training a calibration model on ancestrally diverse participants to adjust both the mean and variance of the PRS, using admixture as covariates, created standard Normal z-scores. These z-scores can be used to identify patients at high polygenic risk, and can be incorporated into comprehensive risk scores including other known risk factors, allowing for more precise risk estimates.

Genomes in clinical care

In the era of precision medicine, genome sequencing (GS) has become more affordable and the importance of genomics and multi-omics in clinical care is increasingly being recognized. However, how to scale and effectively implement GS on an institutional level remains a challenge for many. Here, we present Genome First and Ge-Med, two clinical implementation studies focused on identifying the key pillars and processes that are required to make routine GS and predictive genomics a reality in the clinical setting. We describe our experience and lessons learned for a variety of topics including test logistics, patient care processes, data reporting, and infrastructure. Our model of providing clinical care and comprehensive genomic analysis from a single source may be used by other centers with a similar structure to facilitate the implementation of omics-based personalized health concepts in medicine.

Lessons and Applications of Omics Research in Diabetes Epidemiology

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Recent advances in genomic technology and molecular techniques have greatly facilitated the identification of disease biomarkers, advanced understanding of pathogenesis of different common diseases, and heralded the dawn of precision medicine. Much of these advances in the area of diabetes have been made possible through deep phenotyping of epidemiological cohorts, and analysis of the different omics data in relation to detailed clinical information. In this review, we aim to provide an overview on how omics research could be incorporated into the design of current and future epidemiological studies.

RECENT FINDINGS

We provide an up-to-date review of the current understanding in the area of genetic, epigenetic, proteomic and metabolomic markers for diabetes and related outcomes, including polygenic risk scores. We have drawn on key examples from the literature, as well as our own experience of conducting omics research using the Hong Kong Diabetes Register and Hong Kong Diabetes Biobank, as well as other cohorts, to illustrate the potential of omics research in diabetes. Recent studies highlight the opportunity, as well as potential benefit, to incorporate molecular profiling in the design and set-up of diabetes epidemiology studies, which can also advance understanding on the heterogeneity of diabetes. Learnings from these examples should facilitate other researchers to consider incorporating research on omics technologies into their work to advance the field and our understanding of diabetes and its related co-morbidities. Insights from these studies would be important for future development of precision medicine in diabetes.

Recent advances in polygenic scores: translation, equitability, methods and FAIR tools

Polygenic scores (PGS) can be used for risk stratification by quantifying individuals' genetic predisposition to disease, and many potentially clinically useful applications have been proposed. Here, we review the latest potential benefits of PGS in the clinic and challenges to implementation. PGS could augment risk stratification through combined use with traditional risk factors (demographics, disease-specific risk factors, family history, etc.), to support diagnostic pathways, to predict groups with therapeutic benefits, and to increase the efficiency of clinical trials. However, there exist challenges to maximizing the clinical utility of PGS, including FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) use and standardized sharing of the genomic data needed to develop and recalculate PGS, the equitable performance of PGS across populations and ancestries, the generation of robust and reproducible PGS calculations, and the responsible communication and interpretation of results. We outline how these challenges may be overcome analytically and with more diverse data as well as highlight sustained community efforts to achieve equitable, impactful, and responsible use of PGS in healthcare.

Polygenic risk score predicts all-cause death in East Asian patients with prior coronary artery disease

Introduction

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a highly heritable and multifactorial disease. Numerous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) facilitated the construction of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for predicting future incidence of CAD, however, exclusively in European populations. Furthermore, identifying CAD patients with elevated risks of all-cause death presents a critical challenge in secondary prevention, which will contribute largely to reducing the burden for public healthcare.

Methods

We recruited a cohort of 1,776 Chinese CAD patients and performed medical follow-up for up to 11 years. A pruning and thresholding method was used to calculate PRS of CAD and its 14 risk factors. Their correlations with all-cause death were computed via Cox regression.

Results and discussion

We found that the PRS for CAD and its seven risk factors, namely myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, angina, heart failure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol and C-reaction protein, were significantly associated with death (P ≤ 0.05), whereas the PRS of body mass index displayed moderate association (P < 0.1). Elastic-net Cox regression with 5-fold cross-validation was used to integrate these nine PRS models into a meta score, metaPRS, which performed well in stratifying patients at different risks for death (P < 0.0001). Combining metaPRS with clinical risk factors further increased the discerning power and a 4% increase in sensitivity. The metaPRS generated from the genetic susceptibility to CAD and its risk factors can well stratify CAD patients by their risks of death. Integrating metaPRS and clinical risk factors may contribute to identifying patients at higher risk of poor prognosis.

Parkinson Disease Genetics Extended to African and Hispanic Ancestries in the VA Million Veteran Program

Background and Objectives

Nearly all genetic analyses of Parkinson disease (PD) have been in populations of European ancestry. We sought to test the ability of a machine learning method to extract accurate PD diagnoses from an electronic medical record (EMR) system, to see whether genetic variants identified in European populations generalize to individuals of African and Hispanic ancestries, and to compare the rates of PD across ancestries.

Methods

A machine learning method using natural language processing was applied to EMRs of US veterans participating in the VA Million Veteran Program (MVP) to identify individuals with PD. These putative cases were vetted via blind chart review by a movement disorder specialist. A polygenic risk score (PRS) of 90 established genetic variants whose genotypes were imputed from a customized Axiom Biobank Array was evaluated in different case groups.

Results

The EMR prediction scores had a distinct trimodal distribution, with 97% of the high group and only 30% of the middle group having a credible diagnosis of PD. Using the 3,542 cases from the high group matched 4:1 to controls, the PRS was highly predictive in individuals of European ancestry (n = 3,137 cases; OR = 1.82; p = 8.01E-48), and nearly identical effect sizes were seen in individuals of African (n = 184; OR = 2.07; p = 3.4E-4) and Hispanic ancestries (n = 221; OR = 2.13; p = 3.9E-6). The PRS was much less predictive for the 2,757 European ancestry cases who had an ICD code for PD but for whom the machine learning method had a lower confidence in their diagnosis. No novel ancestry-specific genetic variants were identified. Individuals with African ancestry had one-quarter the rate of PD compared with European or Hispanic ancestries aged 60-70 years and one half the rate in the 70-80 years age range. African American cases had a higher proportion of their DNA originating in Europe compared with African American controls.

Discussion

Machine learning can reliably classify PD using data from a large EMR. Larger studies of non-European populations are required to confirm the generalizability of PD risk variants identified in populations of European ancestry and the increased risk coming from a higher proportion of European DNA in African Americans.

Selection, optimization and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse US populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have improved in predictive performance, but several challenges remain to be addressed before PRSs can be implemented in the clinic, including reduced predictive performance of PRSs in diverse populations, and the interpretation and communication of genetic results to both providers and patients. To address these challenges, the National Human Genome Research Institute-funded Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network has developed a framework and pipeline for return of a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children as part of a clinical study. From an initial list of 23 conditions, ten were selected for implementation based on PRS performance, medical actionability and potential clinical utility, including cardiometabolic diseases and cancer. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process, with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. We then developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation (score transfer to a clinical laboratory, validation and verification of score performance), and used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, utilizing genetically diverse data from 13,475 participants of the All of Us Research Program cohort to train and test model parameters. Finally, we created a framework for regulatory compliance and developed a PRS clinical report for return to providers and for inclusion in an additional genome-informed risk assessment. The initial experience from eMERGE can inform the approach needed to implement PRS-based testing in diverse clinical settings.

Examining interactions between polygenic scores and interpersonal trauma exposure on alcohol consumption and use disorder in an ancestrally diverse college cohort

Introduction: Genetic factors impact alcohol consumption and use disorder (AUD), with large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identifying numerous associated variants. Aggregate genetic methods in combination with important environmental factors (e.g., interpersonal trauma [IPT]) can be applied to expand our understanding of the ways by which genetic and environmental variables work together to influence alcohol consumption and disordered use. The present study aimed to detail the relationships between genome-wide polygenic scores (PGS) for alcohol phenotypes (i.e., alcohol consumption and AUD status) and IPT exposure as well as the interaction between them across ancestry. Methods: Data were drawn from the Spit for Science (S4S) study, a US college student population, where participants reported on IPT exposure prior to college and alcohol consumption and problems during college (N = 9,006; ancestry: 21.3% African [AFR], 12.5% Admixed Americas [AMR], 9.6% East Asian [EAS], 48.1% European [EUR], 8.6% South Asian [SAS]). Two trans-ancestry PGS were constructed, one for alcohol consumption and another for AUD, using large-scale GWAS summary statistics from multiple ancestries weighted using PRS-CSx. Regression models were applied to test for the presence of associations between alcohol-PGS and IPT main and interaction effects. Results: In the meta-analysis across ancestry groups, IPT exposure and PGS were significantly associated with alcohol consumption (βIPT = 0.31, P IPT = 0.0002; βPGS = 0.09, P PGS = 0.004) and AUD (ORIPT = 1.12, P IPT = 3.5 × 10-8; ORPGS = 1.02, P PGS = 0.002). No statistically significant interactions were detected between IPT and sex nor between IPT and PGS. When inspecting ancestry specific results, the alcohol consumption-PGS and AUD-PGS were only statistically significant in the EUR ancestry group (βPGS = 0.09, P PGS = 0.04; ORPGS = 1.02, P PGS = 0.022, respectively). Discussion: IPT exposure prior to college was strongly associated with alcohol outcomes in this college-age sample, which could be used as a preventative measure to identify students at high risk for problematic alcohol use. Additionally, results add to developing evidence of polygenic score association in meta-analyzed samples, highlighting the importance of continued efforts to increase ancestral representation in genetic studies and inclusive analytic approaches to increase the generalizability of results from genetic association studies.

Cross-population applications of genomics to understand the risk of multifactorial traits involving inflammation and immunity

The interplay between genetic and environmental factors plays a significant role in interindividual variation in immune and inflammatory responses. The availability of high-throughput low-cost genotyping and next-generation sequencing has revolutionized our ability to identify human genetic variation and understand how this varies within and between populations, and the relationship with disease. In this review, we explore the potential of genomics for patient benefit, specifically in the diagnosis, prognosis and treatment of inflammatory and immune-related diseases. We summarize the knowledge arising from genetic and functional genomic approaches, and the opportunity for personalized medicine. The review covers applications in infectious diseases, rare immunodeficiencies and autoimmune diseases, illustrating advances in diagnosis and understanding risk including use of polygenic risk scores. We further explore the application for patient stratification and drug target prioritization. The review highlights a key challenge to the field arising from the lack of sufficient representation of genetically diverse populations in genomic studies. This currently limits the clinical utility of genetic-based diagnostic and risk-based applications in non-Caucasian populations. We highlight current genome projects, initiatives and biobanks from diverse populations and how this is being used to improve healthcare globally by improving our understanding of genetic susceptibility to diseases and regional pathogens such as malaria and tuberculosis. Future directions and opportunities for personalized medicine and wider application of genomics in health care are described, for the benefit of individual patients and populations worldwide.

Evaluating the Efficacy of Type 2 Diabetes Polygenic Risk Scores in an Independent European Population

Numerous type 2 diabetes (T2D) polygenic risk scores (PGSs) have been developed to predict individuals' predisposition to the disease. An independent assessment and verification of the best-performing PGS are warranted to allow for a rapid application of developed models. To date, only 3% of T2D PGSs have been evaluated. In this study, we assessed all (n = 102) presently published T2D PGSs in an independent cohort of 3718 individuals, which has not been included in the construction or fine-tuning of any T2D PGS so far. We further chose the best-performing PGS, assessed its performance across major population principal component analysis (PCA) clusters, and compared it with newly developed population-specific T2D PGS. Our findings revealed that 88% of the published PGSs were significantly associated with T2D; however, their performance was lower than what had been previously reported. We found a positive association of PGS improvement over the years (p-value = 8.01 × 10-4 with PGS002771 currently showing the best discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) = 0.669) and PGS003443 exhibiting the strongest association PGS003443 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.899). Further investigation revealed no difference in PGS performance across major population PCA clusters and when compared with newly developed population-specific PGS. Our findings revealed a positive trend in T2D PGS performance, consistently identifying high-T2D-risk individuals in an independent European population.

Principles and methods for transferring polygenic risk scores across global populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) summarize the genetic predisposition of a complex human trait or disease and may become a valuable tool for advancing precision medicine. However, PRSs that are developed in populations of predominantly European genetic ancestries can increase health disparities due to poor predictive performance in individuals of diverse and complex genetic ancestries. We describe genetic and modifiable risk factors that limit the transferability of PRSs across populations and review the strengths and weaknesses of existing PRS construction methods for diverse ancestries. Developing PRSs that benefit global populations in research and clinical settings provides an opportunity for innovation and is essential for health equity.

Utility of Polygenic Scores for Differentiating Diabetes Diagnosis Among Patients With Atypical Phenotypes of Diabetes

CONTEXT

Misclassification of diabetes type occurs in people with atypical presentations of type 1 diabetes (T1D) or type 2 diabetes (T2D). Although current clinical guidelines suggest clinical variables and treatment response as ways to help differentiate diabetes type, they remain insufficient for people with atypical presentations.

OBJECTIVE

This work aimed to assess the clinical utility of 2 polygenic scores (PGSs) in differentiating between T1D and T2D.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with diabetes in the UK Biobank were studied (N = 41 787), including 464 (1%) and 15 923 (38%) who met the criteria for classic T1D and T2D, respectively, and 25 400 (61%) atypical diabetes. The validity of 2 published PGSs for T1D (PGST1D) and T2D (PGST2D) in differentiating classic T1D or T2D was assessed using C statistic. The utility of genetic probability for T1D based on PGSs (GenProb-T1D) was evaluated in atypical diabetes patients.

RESULTS

The joint performance of PGST1D and PGST2D for differentiating classic T1D or T2D was outstanding (C statistic = 0.91), significantly higher than that of PGST1D alone (0.88) and PGST2D alone (0.70), both P less than .001. Using an optimal cutoff of GenProb-T1D, 23% of patients with atypical diabetes had a higher probability of T1D and its validity was independently supported by clinical presentations that are characteristic of T1D.

CONCLUSION

PGST1D and PGST2D can be used to discriminate classic T1D and T2D and have potential clinical utility for differentiating these 2 types of diseases among patients with atypical diabetes.

Influence of Diabetes Family History on the Associations of Combined Genetic and Lifestyle Risks with Diabetes in the Tohoku Medical Megabank Community-Based Cohort Study

AIM

The influence of family history of diabetes, probably reflecting genetic and lifestyle factors, on the association of combined genetic and lifestyle risks with diabetes is unknown. We examined these associations.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 9,681 participants in the Tohoku Medical Megabank Community-based Cohort Study. A lifestyle score, which was categorized into ideal, intermediate, and poor lifestyles, was given. Family history was obtained through a self-reported questionnaire. A polygenic risk score (PRS) was constructed in the target data (n=1,936) using publicly available genome-wide association study summary statistics from BioBank Japan. For test data (n=7,745), we evaluated PRS performance and examined the associations of combined family history and genetic and lifestyle risks with diabetes. Diabetes was defined as non-fasting blood glucose ≥ 200 mmHg, HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, and/or self-reported diabetes treatment.

RESULTS

In test data, 467 (6.0%) participants had diabetes. Compared with a low genetic risk and an ideal lifestyle without a family history, the odds ratio (OR) was 3.73 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.92-7.00) for a lower genetic risk and a poor lifestyle without a family history. Family history was significantly associated with diabetes (OR, 3.58 [95% CI, 1.73-6.98]), even in those with a low genetic risk and an ideal lifestyle. Even among participants who had an ideal lifestyle without a family history, a high genetic risk was associated with diabetes (OR, 2.49 [95% CI, 1.65-3.85]). Adding PRS to family history and conventional lifestyle risk factors improved the prediction ability for diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the notion that a healthy lifestyle is important to prevent diabetes regardless of genetic risk.

The GenoVA study: Equitable implementation of a pragmatic randomized trial of polygenic-risk scoring in primary care

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) hold promise for disease risk assessment and prevention. The Genomic Medicine at Veterans Affairs (GenoVA) Study is addressing three main challenges to the clinical implementation of PRSs in preventive care: defining and determining their clinical utility, implementing them in time-constrained primary care settings, and countering their potential to exacerbate healthcare disparities. The study processes used to test patients, report their PRS results to them and their primary care providers (PCPs), and promote the use of those results in clinical decision-making are modeled on common practices in primary care. The following diseases were chosen for their prevalence and familiarity to PCPs: coronary artery disease; type 2 diabetes; atrial fibrillation; and breast, colorectal, and prostate cancers. A randomized clinical trial (RCT) design and primary outcome of time-to-new-diagnosis of a target disease bring methodological rigor to the question of the clinical utility of PRS implementation. The study's pragmatic RCT design enhances its relevance to how PRS might reasonably be implemented in primary care. Steps the study has taken to promote health equity include the thoughtful handling of genetic ancestry in PRS construction and reporting and enhanced recruitment strategies to address underrepresentation in research participation. To date, enhanced recruitment efforts have been both necessary and successful: participants of underrepresented race and ethnicity groups have been less likely to enroll in the study than expected but ultimately achieved proportional representation through targeted efforts. The GenoVA Study experience to date offers insights for evaluating the clinical utility of equitable PRS implementation in adult primary care.

Polygenic Background Modifies Risk of Coronary Artery Disease Among Individuals With Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia

Background

Heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH) is a monogenic disorder characterized by increased circulating low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and accelerated atherosclerosis. Even among this high-risk group, prior studies note considerable variability in risk of coronary artery disease (CAD).

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the cumulative impact of many common DNA variants-as quantified by a polygenic score-on incident CAD among individuals carrying a HeFH variant.

Methods

We analyzed data from a prospective cohort study of 1,315 individuals who carried a HeFH variant and 1,315 matched family noncarriers derived from a nationwide screening program in the Netherlands, with subsequent replication in 151,009 participants of the UK Biobank.

Results

Despite identification and lipid management within the Dutch screening program, 84 (6.4%) of HeFH variant carriers developed CAD as compared to 45 (3.4%) of matched family members (median follow-up 10.2 years, HR 1.88, 95% CI: 1.31-2.70). Among HeFH variant carriers, a polygenic score was associated with CAD with an effect size similar to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol - HR of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.07-1.70) and 1.41 (95% CI: 1.17-1.70) per standard deviation increase, respectively. When compared to noncarriers, CAD risk increased from 1.24-fold (95% CI: 0.64-2.34) to 3.37-fold (95% CI: 2.11-5.36) across quintiles of the polygenic score. A similar risk gradient, 1.36-fold (95% CI: 0.65-2.85) to 2.88-fold (95% CI: 1.59-5.20), was observed in 429 carriers in the UK Biobank.

Conclusions

In 2 cohort studies involving 1,744 individuals with genetically confirmed HeFH - the largest study to date - risk of CAD varied according to polygenic background, in some cases approaching the risk observed in noncarriers.

A Type 1 Diabetes Polygenic Score Is Not Associated With Prevalent Type 2 Diabetes in Large Population Studies

Context

Both type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) have significant genetic contributions to risk and understanding their overlap can offer clinical insight.

Objective

We examined whether a T1D polygenic score (PS) was associated with a diagnosis of T2D in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium.

Methods

We constructed a T1D PS using 79 known single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with T1D risk. We analyzed 13 792 T2D cases and 14 169 controls from CHARGE cohorts to determine the association between the T1D PS and T2D prevalence. We validated findings in an independent sample of 2256 T2D cases and 27 052 controls from the Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGB Biobank). As secondary analyses in 5228 T2D cases from CHARGE, we used multivariable regression models to assess the association of the T1D PS with clinical outcomes associated with T1D.

Results

The T1D PS was not associated with T2D both in CHARGE (P = .15) and in the MGB Biobank (P = .87). The partitioned human leukocyte antigens only PS was associated with T2D in CHARGE (OR 1.02 per 1 SD increase in PS, 95% CI 1.01-1.03, P = .006) but not in the MGB Biobank. The T1D PS was weakly associated with insulin use (OR 1.007, 95% CI 1.001-1.012, P = .03) in CHARGE T2D cases but not with other outcomes.

Conclusion

In large biobank samples, a common variant PS for T1D was not consistently associated with prevalent T2D. However, possible heterogeneity in T2D cannot be ruled out and future studies are needed do subphenotyping.

Combining Asian and European genome-wide association studies of colorectal cancer improves risk prediction across racial and ethnic populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expand PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS are 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1681-3651 cases and 8696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They are significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values < 0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice.

Algorithms for the identification of prevalent diabetes in the All of Us Research Program validated using polygenic scores - a new resource for diabetes precision medicine

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to develop and validate algorithms for identifying people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in the All of Us Research Program (AoU) cohort, using electronic health record (EHR) and survey data.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Two sets of algorithms were developed, one using only EHR data (EHR), and the other using a combination of EHR and survey data (EHR+). Their performance was evaluated by testing their association with polygenic scores for both type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

For type 1 diabetes, the EHR-only algorithm showed a stronger association with T1D polygenic score (p=3×10-5) than the EHR+. For type 2 diabetes, the EHR+ algorithm outperformed both the EHR-only and the existing AoU definition, identifying additional cases (25.79% and 22.57% more, respectively) and showing stronger association with T2D polygenic score (DeLong p=0.03 and 1×10-4, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

We provide new validated definitions of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in AoU, and make them available for researchers. These algorithms, by ensuring consistent diabetes definitions, pave the way for high-quality diabetes research and future clinical discoveries.

Adjusting for population stratification in polygenic risk score analyses: a guide for model specifications in the UK Biobank

The current study was conducted to provide a general guidance for model specifications in polygenic risk score (PRS) analyses of the UK Biobank, such as adjusting for covariates (i.e. age, sex, recruitment centers, and genetic batch) and the number of principal components (PCs) that need to be included. To cover behavioral, physical and mental health outcomes, we evaluated three continuous outcomes (BMI, smoking, drinking) and two binary outcomes (Major Depressive Disorder and educational attainment). We applied 3280 (656 per phenotype) different models including different sets of covariates. We evaluated these different model specifications by comparing regression parameters such as R2, coefficients, and P values, as well as ANOVA tests. Findings suggest that only up to three PCs appears to be sufficient for controlling population stratification for most outcomes, whereas including other covariates (particularly age and sex) appears to be more essential for model performance.

Explainable multi-task learning improves the parallel estimation of polygenic risk scores for many diseases through shared genetic basis

Many complex diseases share common genetic determinants and are comorbid in a population. We hypothesized that the co-occurrences of diseases and their overlapping genetic etiology can be exploited to simultaneously improve multiple diseases' polygenic risk scores (PRS). This hypothesis was tested using a multi-task learning (MTL) approach based on an explainable neural network architecture. We found that parallel estimations of the PRS for 17 prevalent cancers in a pan-cancer MTL model were generally more accurate than independent estimations for individual cancers in comparable single-task learning (STL) models. Such performance improvement conferred by positive transfer learning was also observed consistently for 60 prevalent non-cancer diseases in a pan-disease MTL model. Interpretation of the MTL models revealed significant genetic correlations between the important sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms used by the neural network for PRS estimation. This suggested a well-connected network of diseases with shared genetic basis.

A Multi-Ancestry Polygenic Risk Score for Coronary Heart Disease Based on an Ancestrally Diverse Genome-Wide Association Study and Population-Specific Optimization

Background

Predictive performance of polygenic risk scores (PRS) varies across populations. To facilitate equitable clinical use, we developed PRS for coronary heart disease (PRSCHD) for 5 genetic ancestry groups.

Methods

We derived ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRSCHD based on pruning and thresholding (PRSP+T) and continuous shrinkage priors (PRSCSx) applied on summary statistics from the largest multi-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis for CHD to date, including 1.1 million participants from 5 continental populations. Following training and optimization of PRSCHD in the Million Veteran Program, we evaluated predictive performance of the best performing PRSCHD in 176,988 individuals across 9 cohorts of diverse genetic ancestry.

Results

Multi-ancestry PRSP+T outperformed ancestry specific PRSP+T across a range of tuning values. In training stage, for all ancestry groups, PRSCSx performed better than PRSP+T and multi-ancestry PRS outperformed ancestry-specific PRS. In independent validation cohorts, the selected multi-ancestry PRSP+T demonstrated the strongest association with CHD in individuals of South Asian (SAS) and European (EUR) ancestry (OR per 1SD[95% CI]; 2.75[2.41-3.14], 1.65[1.59-1.72]), followed by East Asian (EAS) (1.56[1.50-1.61]), Hispanic/Latino (HIS) (1.38[1.24-1.54]), and weakest in African (AFR) ancestry (1.16[1.11-1.21]). The selected multi-ancestry PRSCSx showed stronger associacion with CHD in comparison within each ancestry group where the association was strongest in SAS (2.67[2.38-3.00]) and EUR (1.65[1.59-1.71]), progressively decreasing in EAS (1.59[1.54-1.64]), HIS (1.51[1.35-1.69]), and lowest in AFR (1.20[1.15-1.26]).

Conclusions

Utilizing diverse summary statistics from a large multi-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis led to improved performance of PRSCHD in most ancestry groups compared to single-ancestry methods. Improvement of predictive performance was limited, specifically in AFR and HIS, despite use of one of the largest and most diverse set of training and validation cohorts to date. This highlights the need for larger GWAS datasets of AFR and HIS individuals to enhance performance of PRSCHD.

Predicting Alcohol-Related Memory Problems in Older Adults: A Machine Learning Study with Multi-Domain Features

Memory problems are common among older adults with a history of alcohol use disorder (AUD). Employing a machine learning framework, the current study investigates the use of multi-domain features to classify individuals with and without alcohol-induced memory problems. A group of 94 individuals (ages 50-81 years) with alcohol-induced memory problems (the memory group) were compared with a matched control group who did not have memory problems. The random forests model identified specific features from each domain that contributed to the classification of the memory group vs. the control group (AUC = 88.29%). Specifically, individuals from the memory group manifested a predominant pattern of hyperconnectivity across the default mode network regions except for some connections involving the anterior cingulate cortex, which were predominantly hypoconnected. Other significant contributing features were: (i) polygenic risk scores for AUD, (ii) alcohol consumption and related health consequences during the past five years, such as health problems, past negative experiences, withdrawal symptoms, and the largest number of drinks in a day during the past twelve months, and (iii) elevated neuroticism and increased harm avoidance, and fewer positive "uplift" life events. At the neural systems level, hyperconnectivity across the default mode network regions, including the connections across the hippocampal hub regions, in individuals with memory problems may indicate dysregulation in neural information processing. Overall, the study outlines the importance of utilizing multidomain features, consisting of resting-state brain connectivity data collected ~18 years ago, together with personality, life experiences, polygenic risk, and alcohol consumption and related consequences, to predict the alcohol-related memory problems that arise in later life.

Earlier Age at Type 2 Diabetes Diagnosis Is Associated With Increased Genetic Risk of Cardiovascular Disease

OBJECTIVE

We investigated genetic risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) by age at type 2 diabetes (T2D) diagnosis.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We compared incident CVD events by age at T2D diagnosis using UK Biobank (N = 12,321) and the Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH) cohort (N = 1,165). Genetic risk was quantified using polygenic risk score (PRS).

RESULTS

Individuals with earlier T2D diagnosis had higher CVD risk. In UK Biobank, the effect size of coronary artery disease (CAD) PRS on incident CAD was largest in individuals diagnosed with T2D at ages 30-39 years (hazard ratio 2.25; 95% CI 1.56-3.26) and decreased as age at diagnosis increased: ages 40-49 (1.51; 1.30-1.75), 50-59 (1.36; 1.24-1.50), and 60-69 years (1.30; 1.14-1.48) (Pinteraction = 0.0031). A similar trend was observed in the SNUH cohort. This increased genetic risk associated with earlier T2D diagnosis was largely mitigated by a healthy lifestyle.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with an earlier T2D diagnosis have a higher genetic risk of CAD, and this information could be used to tailor lifestyle interventions.

Comparing Pruning and Thresholding with Continuous Shrinkage Polygenic Score Methods in a Large Sample of Ancestrally Diverse Adolescents from the ABCD Study®

Using individuals' genetic data researchers can generate Polygenic Scores (PS) that are able to predict risk for diseases, variability in different behaviors as well as anthropomorphic measures. This is achieved by leveraging models learned from previously published large Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWASs) associating locations in the genome with a phenotype of interest. Previous GWASs have predominantly been performed in European ancestry individuals. This is of concern as PS generated in samples with a different ancestry to the original training GWAS have been shown to have lower performance and limited portability, and many efforts are now underway to collect genetic databases on individuals of diverse ancestries. In this study, we compare multiple methods of generating PS, including pruning and thresholding and Bayesian continuous shrinkage models, to determine which of them is best able to overcome these limitations. To do this we use the ABCD Study, a longitudinal cohort with deep phenotyping on individuals of diverse ancestry. We generate PS for anthropometric and psychiatric phenotypes using previously published GWAS summary statistics and examine their performance in three subsamples of ABCD: African ancestry individuals (n = 811), European ancestry Individuals (n = 6703), and admixed ancestry individuals (n = 3664). We find that the single ancestry continuous shrinkage method, PRScs (CS), and the multi ancestry meta method, PRScsx Meta (CSx Meta), show the best performance across ancestries and phenotypes.

Polygenic Risk Score in African populations: progress and challenges

Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) analysis is a method that predicts the genetic risk of an individual towards targeted traits. Even when there are no significant markers, it gives evidence of a genetic effect beyond the results of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS). Moreover, it selects  single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that  contribute to the disease with low effect size  making it more precise at individual level risk prediction. PRS  analysis addresses the shortfall of GWAS by taking into account the SNPs/alleles with  low effect size but play an indispensable role to the observed phenotypic/trait variance.  PRS analysis has  applications that investigate the genetic basis of several traits, which includes rare diseases. However, the accuracy of PRS analysis depends on the genomic data of the underlying population. For instance, several studies  show   that obtaining higher prediction power of PRS analysis is challenging for non-Europeans. In this manuscript, we review the conventional PRS methods and their application to sub-Saharan African communities. We conclude that  lack of sufficient GWAS data and tools is  the limiting factor of applying PRS analysis to sub-Saharan populations.   We recommend developing Africa-specific PRS methods and tools for estimating and analyzing  African population data   for clinical  evaluation of PRSs of interest and predicting  rare diseases.

Polygenic Risk Score in African populations: progress and challenges

Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) analysis is a method that predicts the genetic risk of an individual towards targeted traits. Even when there are no significant markers, it gives evidence of a genetic effect beyond the results of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS). Moreover, it selects  single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that  contribute to the disease with low effect size  making it more precise at individual level risk prediction. PRS  analysis addresses the shortfall of GWAS by taking into account the SNPs/alleles with  low effect size but play an indispensable role to the observed phenotypic/trait variance.  PRS analysis has  applications that investigate the genetic basis of several traits, which includes rare diseases. However, the accuracy of PRS analysis depends on the genomic data of the underlying population. For instance, several studies  show   that obtaining higher prediction power of PRS analysis is challenging for non-Europeans. In this manuscript, we review the conventional PRS methods and their application to sub-Saharan African communities. We conclude that  lack of sufficient GWAS data and tools is  the limiting factor of applying PRS analysis to sub-Saharan populations.   We recommend developing Africa-specific PRS methods and tools for estimating and analyzing  African population data   for clinical  evaluation of PRSs of interest and predicting  rare diseases.

Prediction and stratification of longitudinal risk for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease across smoking behaviors

Smoking is the leading risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) worldwide, yet many people who never smoke develop COPD. We hypothesize that considering other socioeconomic and environmental factors can better predict and stratify the risk of COPD in both non-smokers and smokers. We performed longitudinal analysis of COPD in the UK Biobank to develop the Socioeconomic and Environmental Risk Score (SERS) which captures additive and cumulative environmental, behavioral, and socioeconomic exposure risks beyond tobacco smoking. We tested the ability of SERS to predict and stratify the risk of COPD in current, previous, and never smokers of European and non-European ancestries in comparison to a composite genome-wide polygenic risk score (PGS). We tested associations using Cox regression models and assessed the predictive performance of models using Harrell's C index. SERS (C index = 0.770, 95% CI 0.756 to 0.784) was more predictive of COPD than smoking status (C index = 0.738, 95% CI 0.724 to 0.752), pack-years (C index = 0.742, 95% CI 0.727 to 0.756). Compared to the remaining population, individuals in the highest decile of the SERS had hazard ratios (HR) = 7.24 (95% CI 6.51 to 8.05, P < 0.0001) for incident COPD. Never smokers in the highest decile of exposure risk were more likely to develop COPD than previous and current smokers in the lowest decile with HR=4.95 (95% CI 1.56 to 15.69, P=6.65×10-3) and 2.92 (95%CI 1.51 to 5.61, P=1.38×10-3), respectively. In general, the prediction accuracy of SERS was lower in the non-European populations compared to the European evaluation set. In addition to genetic factors, socioeconomic and environmental factors beyond smoking can predict and stratify COPD risk for both non- and smoking individuals. Smoking status is often considered in screening; other non-smoking environmental and non-genetic variables should be evaluated prospectively for their clinical utility.

Primary care physician use of patient race and polygenic risk scores in medical decision-making

PURPOSE

The use of patient race in medicine is controversial for its potential either to exacerbate or address health disparities. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have emerged as a tool for risk stratification models used in preventive medicine. We examined whether PRS results affect primary care physician (PCP) medical decision-making and whether that effect varies by patient race.

METHODS

Using an online survey with a randomized experimental design among PCPs in a national database, we ascertained decision-making around atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease prevention and prostate cancer screening for case scenario patients who were clinically identical except for randomized reported race.

RESULTS

Across 369 PCPs (email open rate = 10.8%, partial completion rate = 93.7%), recommendations varied with PRS results in expected directions (low-risk results, no available PRS results, and high-risk results). Still, physicians randomized to scenarios with Black patients were more likely to recommend statin therapy than those randomized to scenarios with White patients (odds ratio = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.16-2.59, P = .007) despite otherwise identical clinical profiles and independent of PRS results. Similarly, physicians were more likely to recommend prostate cancer screening for Black patients than for White patients (odds ratio = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.06-2.35, P = .025) despite otherwise identical clinical and genetic profiles.

CONCLUSION

Despite advances in precision risk stratification, physicians will likely continue to use patient race implicitly or explicitly in medical decision-making.

Polygenic Scores in the Direct-to-Consumer Setting: Challenges and Opportunities for a New Era in Consumer Genetic Testing

Direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests have generated considerable scholarly attention and public intrigue. Although the current consumer genetic testing regime relies on the reporting of individual variants of interest to consumers, there has recently been interest in the possibility of integrating polygenic scores (PGS), which aggregate genetic liability for disease across the entire genome. While PGS have thus far been extensively explored as clinical and public health tools, the use of PGS in consumer genetic testing has not yet received systematic attention, even though they are already in use for some consumer genetic tests. In this narrative review, we highlight the ethical, legal, and social implications of the use of PGS in DTC genetic tests and synthesize existing solutions to these concerns. We organize these concerns into three domains: (1) industry variation; (2) privacy and commercialization; and (3) patient safety and risk. While previously expressed concerns in these domains will remain relevant, the emergence of PGS-based DTC genetic tests raises challenges that will require novel approaches.

Combining Asian-European Genome-Wide Association Studies of Colorectal Cancer Improves Risk Prediction Across Race and Ethnicity

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expanded PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS were 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1,681-3,651 cases and 8,696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They were significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values<0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice.