Predictors of lost to follow up from antiretroviral therapy among adults in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on HIV care cascade for people living with HIV in Ethiopia: a retrospective longitudinal study

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on the cascade of HIV care for people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Ethiopia.

DESIGN

A retrospective longitudinal study.

SETTING

The study was conducted in North Showa Zone, Ethiopia, from pre-COVID-19 (January 2018-December 2019) and during COVID-19 (January 2020-December 2021).

PARTICIPANTS

We identified 61901 records from 3925 PLHIV, of which 23 848 were recorded during the pandemic.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

We investigated indicators from four stages of the HIV care cascade, including HIV screening and diagnosis, HIV care, HIV treatment and HIV disease progression, according to a WHO framework. The indicator changes were assessed with incidence rate ratios (IRRs).

RESULTS

For HIV screening and diagnosis, the monthly number of HIV tests experienced a 46% decline from 2520 to 1361 since the pandemic (IRR 0.553; 95% CI 0.546 to 0.561). For HIV care, the monthly number of consultations was reduced by 49.6% (from 1582 to 798) since the pandemic (IRR 0.591; 95% CI 0.581 to 0.601). Similarly, the monthly number of viral load tests was reduced by 42.8% (IRR 0.614; 95% CI 0.581 to 0.650). For HIV treatment, the number of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiations was reduced by 27.8% and the number of ART adherence by 52.5% since the pandemic. For HIV disease progression, the monthly number of PLHIV achieving viral suppression was reduced by 61.6%, while HIV-related deaths doubled during the pandemic.

CONCLUSION

The study highlights pandemic-induced disruptions in the cascade of care for PLHIV. Targeted interventions are necessary to protect PLHIV in public health emergencies.

Rate and predictors of loss to follow-up in HIV care in a low-resource setting: analyzing critical risk periods

BACKGROUND

Patient loss-to-follow-up (LTFU) in HIV care is a major challenge, especially in low-resource settings. Although the literature has focused on the total rate at which patients disengage from care, it has not sufficiently examined the specific risk periods during which patients are most likely to disengage from care. By addressing this gap, researchers and healthcare providers can develop more targeted interventions to improve patient engagement in HIV care.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study on newly enrolled adult HIV patients at seven randomly selected high-volume health facilities in Ethiopia from May 2022 to April 2024. Data analysis was performed using SPSS version 26, with a focus on the incidence rate of LTFU during the critical risk periods. Cumulative hazard analysis was used to compare event distributions, whereas a Poisson regression model was used to identify factors predicting LTFU, with statistical significance set at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

The analysis included 737 individuals newly enrolled in HIV care; 165 participants (22.4%, 95% CI: 19.5-25.2) were LTFU by the end of two years, of which 50.1% occurred within the first 6 months, 29.7% within 7-12 months, and 19.4% from 13 to 24 months on ART. The overall incidence rate of LTFU was 18.3 per 1,000 PMO (95% CI: 15.9-20.6), with rates of 167.7 in the first 6 months, 55.4 in 7-12 months, and 18.1 in 13-24 months. Incomplete addresses lacking a phone number or location information (IRR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.14, 2.27) and poor adherence (IRR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.28, 2.48) were factors predicting the incidence rate of LTFU.

CONCLUSION

LTFU peaked in the first 6 months, accounting for approximately half of total losses, remained elevated from months 7-12, and stabilized after the first year of HIV care and treatment. Address information and adherence were predictors of LTFU. To effectively minimize LTFU, efforts should focus on intensive support during the first six months of care, followed by sustained efforts and monitoring in the next six months. Our findings highlight a critical period for targeted interventions to reduce LTFU in HIV care.

Mortality of cytomegalovirus infection among people living with HIV: A retrospective study from a tertiary hospital in Indonesia

BACKGROUND

There are still many patients newly diagnosed with HIV at an advanced stage in Indonesia. We aimed to identify factors associated with 1-year mortality among cytomegalovirus (CMV)-infected people living with HIV (PLHIV).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was carried out at a tertiary-care hospital in Jakarta, Indonesia (January 2017 to December 2022). We included PLHIV with CMV end-organ disease (EOD) and CMV syndrome. The presence of CMV infection was confirmed by fulfilling one of the following criteria: (1) positive PCR from plasma, urine, cerebrospinal fluid, or other body fluids, or associated tissue for CMV EOD; (2) positive immunoglobulin M (IgM); or (3) consistent symptoms and signs of CMV retinitis.

RESULTS

Out of 1737 PLHIV, 147 (8.5%, 95% CI: 7.2 to 9.9%) were diagnosed with CMV infection. Forty (27.2%, 95% CI: 20.6 to 35.1%) patients died within 1 year of being diagnosed. Only anti-retroviral therapy (ART) defaulting (aHR 3.31, 95% CI: 1.12 to 9.73) was found to be significantly associated with 1-year mortality in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

Defaulted ART status is significantly associated with reduced 1-year survival after CMV infection diagnosis. Patients with low CD4 counts, especially those with <50 cells/μL, should be assessed for CMV infection, monitored, and treated accordingly.

Incidence of Health Facility Switching and Associations With HIV Viral Rebound Among Persons on Antiretroviral Therapy in Uganda: A Population-based Study

BACKGROUND

A substantial proportion of persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART) considered lost to follow-up have actually transferred their human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care to other facilities. However, the relationship between facility switching and virologic outcomes, including viral rebound, is poorly understood.

METHODS

We used data from 40 communities (2015-2020) in the Rakai Community Cohort Study to estimate incidence of facility switching and viral rebound. Persons aged 15-49 years with serologically confirmed HIV who self-reported ART use and contributed ≥1 follow-up visit were included. Facility switching and virologic outcomes were assessed between 2 consecutive study visits (ie, index and follow-up visits, interval of approximately 18 months). Those who reported different HIV treatment facilities between index and follow-up study visits were classified as having switched facilities. Virologic outcomes included viral rebound among individuals initially suppressed (<200 copies/mL). Multivariable Poisson regression was used to estimate associations between facility switching and viral rebound.

RESULTS

Overall, 2257 persons who self-reported ART use (median age, 35 years; 65% female, 92% initially suppressed) contributed 3335 visit-pairs and 5959 person-years to the analysis. Facility switching was common (4.8 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.2-5.5) and most pronounced in persons aged <30 years and fishing community residents. Among persons suppressed at their index visit (n = 2076), incidence of viral rebound was more than twice as high in persons who switched facilities (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.27; 95% CI, 1.16-4.45).

CONCLUSIONS

Facility switching was common and associated with viral rebound among persons initially suppressed. Investments in more agile, person-centered models for mobile clients are needed to address system inefficiencies and bottlenecks that can disrupt HIV care continuity.

Tobacco smoking, smoking cessation and life expectancy among people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a simulation modelling study

INTRODUCTION

As access to effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) has improved globally, tobacco-related illnesses, including cardiovascular disease, cancer and chronic respiratory conditions, account for a growing proportion of deaths among people with HIV (PWH). We estimated the impact of tobacco smoking and smoking cessation on life expectancy among PWH in South Africa.

METHODS

In a microsimulation model, we simulated 18 cohorts of PWH with virologic suppression, each homogenous by sex, initial age (35y/45y/55y) and smoking status (current/former/never). Input parameters were from data sources published between 2008 and 2022. We used South African data to estimate age-stratified mortality hazard ratios: 1.2-2.3 (females)/1.1-1.9 (males) for people with current versus never smoking status; and 1.0-1.3 (females)/1.0-1.5 (males) for people with former versus never smoking status, depending on age at cessation. We assumed smoking status remains unchanged during the simulation; people who formerly smoked quit at model start. Simulated PWH face a monthly probability of disengagement from care and virologic non-suppression. In sensitivity analysis, we varied smoking-associated and HIV-associated mortality risks. Additionally, we estimated the total life-years gained if a proportion of all virologically suppressed PWH stopped smoking.

RESULTS

Forty-five-year-old females/males with HIV with virologic suppression who smoke lose 5.3/3.7 life-years compared to PWH who never smoke. Smoking cessation at age 45y adds 3.4/2.4 life-years. Simulated PWH who continue smoking lose more life-years from smoking than from HIV (females, 5.3 vs. 3.0 life-years; males, 3.7 vs. 2.6 life-years). The impact of smoking and smoking cessation increase as smoking-associated mortality risks increase and HIV-associated mortality risks, including disengagement from care, decrease. Model results are most sensitive to the smoking-associated mortality hazard ratio; varying this parameter results in 1.0-5.1 life-years gained from cessation at age 45y. If 10-25% of virologically suppressed PWH aged 30-59y in South Africa stopped smoking now, 190,000-460,000 life-years would be gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Among virologically suppressed PWH in South Africa, tobacco smoking decreases life expectancy more than HIV. Integrating tobacco cessation interventions into HIV care, as endorsed by the World Health Organization, could substantially improve life expectancy.

Exploring the Relationship Between Anticipated Stigma and Community Shared Concerns about HIV on Defaulting from HIV Care in Rural South Africa

Although stigma has been associated with people living with HIV defaulting from care, there is a gap in understanding the specific impact of individual stigma and community-level concern about HIV on defaulting.

Methods

This is a secondary analysis of a unique dataset that links health facility-based medical records to a population-representative community survey conducted in 2018 in rural Mpumalanga province, South Africa. We used the parametric g-formula to estimate associations among individual anticipated stigma, low perceived community and local leader concern about HIV, and defaulting from care in the prior year. In addition, we estimated the population-level effects of intervening to reduce stigma and increase concern on defaulting.

Results

Among 319 participants on treatment, 42 (13.2%) defaulted from care during the prior year. Anticipated stigma (risk ratio [RR] 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72, 2.74), low perceived concern about HIV/AIDS from community leadership (RR 1.12, 95% CI 0.76, 3.38), and low shared concerns about HIV/AIDS in the community (RR 1.37; 95% CI 0.79, 3.07) were not significantly associated with default. Hypothetical population intervention effects to remove individual anticipated stigma and low community concerns yielded small reductions in default (~1% reduction).

Conclusions

In this sample, we found limited impact of reducing anticipated stigma and increasing shared concern about HIV on retention in care. Future studies should consider the limitations of this study by examining the influence of other sources of stigma in more detail and assessing how perceptions of stigma and concern impact the full HIV testing and care cascade.

Incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Central Ethiopia: a multi-center retrospective cohort study

Background

Globally, loss to follow-up (LTFU) remains a significant public health concern despite the rapid expansion of antiretroviral medication programs. It is a significant cause of treatment failure and threatens the enhancement of HIV treatment outcomes among patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, there is a paucity of evidence on its incidence and predictors in Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to examine the incidence and predictors of LTFU among adult HIV patients receiving ART at hospitals in Central Ethiopia.

Methods

A multi-centered facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 432 randomly selected adult patients who received antiretroviral therapy. Data were entered into EpiData version 3.1 and exported to Stata version 14 for analysis. The Kaplan-Meier failure function was employed to determine the overall failure estimates, and the log-rank test was used to compare the probability of failure among the different categories of variables. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify independent predictors of LTFU.

Results

Overall, 172 (39.8%) study participants were lost to follow-up over the 10-year follow-up period with an incidence rate of 8.12 (95% CI: 7.11, 9.09) per 1,000 person-months. Undisclosed HIV status (AHR: 1.96, 95% CI: 1.14, 3.36), not able to work (AHR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.13, 2.22), opportunistic infections (AHR: 3.13, 95% CI: 2.17, 4.52), CD4 < 200 cell/mL (AHR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.18, 3.21), not receiving isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) (AHR: 2.57, 95% CI: 1.62, 4.06), not participating in clubs (AHR: 1.68, 95% CI: 1.10, 2.22), side effects of drugs (AHR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.04), and high viral load (AHR: 3.15, 95% CI: 1.81, 5.47) were identified as significant predictors of loss to follow-up.

Conclusion

In this study, the incidence of LTFU was high. The focus should be on creating awareness and prevention programs that aim to reduce loss to follow-up by continuing counseling, especially on the negative effects of loss to follow-up and the benefits of ART care.

Long-term HIV care outcomes under universal HIV treatment guidelines: A retrospective cohort study in 25 countries

BACKGROUND

While national adoption of universal HIV treatment guidelines has led to improved, timely uptake of antiretroviral therapy (ART), longer-term care outcomes are understudied. There is little data from real-world service delivery settings on patient attrition, viral load (VL) monitoring, and viral suppression (VS) at 24 and 36 months after HIV treatment initiation.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

For this retrospective cohort analysis, we used observational data from 25 countries in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium's Asia-Pacific, Central Africa, East Africa, Central/South America, and North America regions for patients who were ART naïve and aged ≥15 years at care enrollment between 24 months before and 12 months after national adoption of universal treatment guidelines, occurring 2012 to 2018. We estimated crude cumulative incidence of loss-to-clinic (CI-LTC) at 12, 24, and 36 months after enrollment among patients enrolling in care before and after guideline adoption using competing risks regression. Guideline change-associated hazard ratios of LTC at each time point after enrollment were estimated via cause-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models. Modified Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risks of retention, VL monitoring, and VS at 12, 24, and 36 months after ART initiation. There were 66,963 patients enrolling in HIV care at 109 clinics with ≥12 months of follow-up time after enrollment (46,484 [69.4%] enrolling before guideline adoption and 20,479 [30.6%] enrolling afterwards). More than half (54.9%) were females, and median age was 34 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 27 to 43). Mean follow-up time was 51 months (standard deviation: 17 months; range: 12, 110 months). Among patients enrolling before guideline adoption, crude CI-LTC was 23.8% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 23.4, 24.2) at 12 months, 31.0% (95% CI [30.6, 31.5]) at 24 months, and 37.2% (95% [CI 36.8, 37.7]) at 36 months after enrollment. Adjusting for sex, age group, enrollment CD4, clinic location and type, and country income level, enrolling in care and initiating ART after guideline adoption was associated with increased hazard of LTC at 12 months (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.25 [95% CI 1.08, 1.44]; p = 0.003); 24 months (aHR 1.38 [95% CI 1.19, 1.59]; p < .001); and 36 months (aHR 1.34 [95% CI 1.18, 1.53], p < .001) compared with enrollment before guideline adoption, with no before-after differences among patients with no record of ART initiation by end of follow-up. Among patients retained after ART initiation, VL monitoring was low, with marginal improvements associated with guideline adoption only at 12 months after ART initiation. Among those with VL monitoring, VS was high at each time point among patients enrolling before guideline adoption (86.0% to 88.8%) and afterwards (86.2% to 90.3%), with no substantive difference associated with guideline adoption. Study limitations include lags in and potential underascertainment of care outcomes in real-world service delivery data and potential lack of generalizability beyond IeDEA sites and regions included in this analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, adoption of universal HIV treatment guidelines was associated with lower retention after ART initiation out to 36 months of follow-up, with little change in VL monitoring or VS among retained patients. Monitoring long-term HIV care outcomes remains critical to identify and address causes of attrition and gaps in HIV care quality.

Determinants of Loss to Follow Up Among Adult People Living with HIV Enrolled in Antiretroviral Therapy in West Wollega Public Hospitals, Oromia, Ethiopia

Background

Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) reduces morbidity and mortality in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, clients loss to follow-up (LTFU) from the treatment poses a paramount problem to the public, healthcare, and patient outcome. Thus, this study identified determinants of loss to follow-up to ART among adult clients in West Wollega hospitals, Oromia, Ethiopia, in 2021.

Methods

An unmatched case-control study was conducted and a systematic random sampling technique was used. Data were collected from patient charts by three BSC nurses and three card reporters using a structured checklist. Then, it was entered into Epi-data version 3.1 and analyzed using SPSS version 21. Descriptive statistics (frequency and percentage) were used to present the results. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed using the backward stepwise method. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and p-values <0.05 were used to declare significant association with loss to follow-up. Model fitness was checked using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit.

Results

A total of 399 (133 patients and 266 controls) participated in this study. Rural residents (AOR:3.46, 95% CI:1.65, 7.25), male patient (AOR: 2.65 95% CI 1.54,4.55), lack of formal education (AOR: 4.35, 95% CI 1.53, 12.41), base line CD4 ≤350 (AOR: 5.25, 95% CI 1.93,14.24), poor functional status (AOR: 4.298, 95% CI 5.33,34.62) and WHO stages III & IV (AOR: 2.65, 95% CI 1.68,4.19), and tuberculosis co-infection (AOR: 2.82, 95% CI 1.11,7.45) were determinant factors of loss to follow up.

Conclusion

Rural residence, male sex, daily laborer, no formal education, baseline CD4 count <350 cells/mm3, baseline advanced WHO clinical stage, and TB co-infection were determinants of LTFU. Therefore, emphasis should be given to the identified factors along with awareness creation and health education sessions. Regular TB screening, optimal adherence regardless of their stay on ART, and follow-up study are recommended.

A retrospective cohort analysis of people living with HIV/AIDS enrolled in HIV care at a reference center in Antananarivo, Madagascar

Background

The impact of the "Treat all" policy on the individual and in terms of public health is closely related to early diagnosis and retention in care. Patient-level data are scarce in Madagascar. In this study, we aimed to describe the profile of a cohort of newly diagnosed people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), identify their outcomes, and assess factors associated with attrition from care and advanced HIV disease (AHD) at presentation.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of PLHIV aged ≥15 years newly diagnosed at the University Hospital Joseph Raseta Befelatanana Antananarivo from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2016.

Results

A total of 490 PLHIV were included in the cohort analysis. In total, 67.1% were male. The median age (interquartile range) at enrollment in care was 29 years (24-38). Overall, 36.1% of PLHIV were diagnosed with AHD at baseline. The proportion of patients with WHO stage IV at baseline increased significantly from 3.3% in 2010 to 31% in 2016 (p = 0.001 for trend). The probability of retention in care after the diagnosis at 12 months, 24 months, and 36 months was 71.8%, 65.5%, and 61.3%, respectively. Age ≥ 40 years (aHR: 1.55; 95% CI: 1.05-2.29; p = 0.026), low level of education (aHR:1.62; 95% CI: 1.11-2.36; p = 0,013), unspecified level of education (aHR:2.18; 95% CI: 1.37-3.47; p = 0.001) and unemployment (aHR:1.52; 95% CI: 1.07-2.16; p = 0.019) were independently associated with attrition from care. Factors associated with AHD at baseline were age ≥ 40 (aOR: 2.77; 95% CI: 1.38-5.57, p = 0.004), unspecified level of education (aOR: 3.80; 95% CI: 1.58-9.16, p = 0.003) and presence of clinical symptoms at baseline (aOR: 23.81; 95% CI: 10.7-52.98; p < 0.001). Sex workers were independently less likely to have an AHD at presentation (aOR: 0.23; 95% CI: 0.05-0.96, p = 0.044).

Conclusion

Sociodemographic determinants influenced retention in care more than clinical factors. The presence of clinical symptoms and sociodemographic determinants were the main factors associated with AHD at baseline.

Loss to Follow-up and Death Among Individuals With Newly Diagnosed Human Immunodeficiency Virus Receiving Dolutegravir-Based First-Line Antiretroviral Treatment in Eastern Ethiopia: Implications for 95% United Nations Targets

Background

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) and death are unfavorable outcomes of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment. This study aimed to identify the predictors of LTFU and death among individuals with newly diagnosed HIV receiving dolutegravir (DTG)-based first-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) in eastern Ethiopia.

Methods

A multisite prospective cohort study was carried out between October 2020 and July 2022. New case patients who started ART were enrolled consecutively and then followed up for the next 6 months. A structured questionnaire and checklists were used to collect data. HIV viral load was determined using the Abbott RealTime HIV-1 assay. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify baseline factors associated with the outcomes.

Results

A total of 235 people with newly diagnosed HIV were enrolled; 16.6% (95% confidence interval, 12.3%-21.9%) were lost to follow-up, and 5.9% (3.5%-9.8%) died within 6 months of follow-up. Baseline World Health Organization clinical stage I (adjusted odds ratio, 3.93 [95% confidence interval, 1.34-11.57]), low viral load (3.67 [1.09-12.36]), and body weight (1.04 [1.01-1.07]) were predictors of LTFU, whereas nonfunctional status (10.02 [1.9-51.3]) was the only factor associated with death.

Conclusions

LTFU and death rates among patients with DTG were relatively high, accounting for roughly a quarter of the attrition of people with newly diagnosed HIV from ART care and services. Thus, targeted interventions are required to reduce LTFU and death among individuals with HIV on ART. Further investigation is necessary to evaluate the long-term effects of DTG-based regimens on LTFU and its impact on HIV mortality rates, and qualitative research, specifically tracing LTFU, is recommended.

Exploring Self-reported Adherence Measures to Screen for Elevated HIV Viral Load in Adolescents: A South African Cohort Study

The timely identification of ART non-adherence among adolescents living with HIV presents a significant challenge, particularly in resource-limited settings where virologic monitoring is suboptimal. Using South African adolescent cohort data (N = 933, mean age 13.6 ± 2.89 years, 55.1% female, follow-up = 2014-2018), we examined the association between elevated viral load (VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL) and seven self-reported adherence measures on missed doses, and clinic appointments -with varying recall timeframes. The best performing measures, which were significantly associated with elevated viral load in covariate-adjusted models are: any missed dose -past 3 days (sensitivity = 91.6% [95%CI: 90.3-92.8], positive predictive value (PPV) = 78.8% [95%CI: 77.2-80.4]), -past week (sensitivity = 87% [95%CI: 85.4-88.6], PPV = 78.2% [95%CI: 76.5-79.9]), -past month (sensitivity = 79.5% [95%CI: 77.5-81.4], PPV = 78.2% [95%CI: 76.4-79.9]), any past-month days missed (sensitivity = 86.7% [95%CI: 85.1-88.3], PPV = 77.9% [95%CI:76.2-79.6]), and any missed clinic appointment (sensitivity = 88.3% [95%CI: 86.8-89.8], PPV = 78.4% [95%CI: 76.8-79.9]). Combining the three best performing measures missed dose -past 3 days, -past week, and any past-year missed clinic appointment increased sensitivity to 96.4% while maintaining a PPV of about 78%. The discriminatory power of simple and easy-to-administer self-reported adherence measures in detecting elevated viral load warrants consideration in resource-limited settings and may contribute to the aims of the new Global Alliance to End AIDS in children and adolescents by 2030.

A scoping review on the factors associated with the lost to follow-up (LTFU) amongst patients with chronic disease in ambulatory care of high-income countries (HIC)

BACKGROUND

Despite the importance of long term follow-up care for patients with chronic disease, many patients fail to adhere to their follow-ups, which increase their risk of further health complications. Therefore, the purpose of this scoping review was to find out the factors associated with lost to follow-up (LTFU) amongst patients with chronic disease in the ambulatory care setting of high-income countries (HICs) to gain insights for better quality of care. Understanding the definition of LTFU is imperative in informing patients, health professionals and researchers for clinical and research purposes. This review also provided an overview of the terms and definitions used to describe LTFU.

METHODS

The following databases: CINAHL, EMBASE, Medline, PsycINFO and Web of Science were searched for studies investigating the factors associated to LTFU from the date of inception until 07 January 2022.

RESULTS

Five thousand one hundred and seven records were obtained across the databases and 3,416 articles were screened after removing the duplicates. 25 articles met the inclusion criteria, of which 17 were cohort studies, five were cross-sectional studies and three were case-control studies. A total of 32 factors were found to be associated with LTFU and they were categorised into patient factors, clinical factors and healthcare provider factors.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the factors associated with LTFU were generally inconsistent across studies. However, some factors such as financial factors (i.e., no insurance coverage) and low accessibility of care were consistently associated with LTFU for both mental and physical chronic conditions. The operational definitions of LTFU also varied greatly across studies. Given the mixed findings, future research using qualitative aproaches would be pivotal in understanding LTFU for specific chronic diseases and the development of targeted interventions. Additionally, there is a need to standardise the operational definition of LTFU for research as well as clinical practice purposes.

Empirical progression criteria thresholds for feasibility outcomes in HIV clinical trials: a methodological study

INTRODUCTION

Pilot and feasibility trials use predetermined thresholds for feasibility outcomes to decide if a larger trial is feasible. These thresholds may be derived from the literature, observational data, or clinical experience. The aim of this study was to determine empirical estimates for feasibility outcomes to inform future HIV pilot randomized trials.

METHODS

We conducted a methodological study of HIV clinical trials indexed in the past 5 years (2017-2021) in the PubMed database. We included trials of people living with HIV individually randomized to any type of intervention and excluded pilot trials and cluster randomized trials. Screening and data extraction were conducted in duplicate. We computed estimates for recruitment, randomization, non-compliance, lost to follow-up, discontinuation, and the proportion analyzed using a random effects meta-analysis of proportions and reported these estimates according to the following subgroups: use of medication, intervention type, trial design, income level, WHO region, participant type, comorbidities, and source of funding. We report estimates with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

We identified 2122 studies in our search, of which 701 full texts were deemed relevant, but only 394 met our inclusion criteria. We found the following estimates: recruitment (64.1%; 95% CI 57.7 to 70.3; 156 trials); randomization (97.1%; 95% CI 95.8 to 98.3; 187 trials); non-compliance (3.8%; 95% CI 2.8 to 4.9; 216 trials); lost to follow-up (5.8%; 95% CI 4.9 to 6.8; 251 trials); discontinuation (6.5%; 95% CI 5.5 to 7.5; 215 trials); analyzed (94.2%; 95% CI 92.9 to 95.3; 367 trials). There were differences in estimates across most subgroups.

CONCLUSION

These estimates may be used to inform the design of HIV pilot randomized trials with careful consideration of variations due to some of the subgroups investigated.

Mobility and ART retention among men in Malawi: a mixed-methods study

INTRODUCTION

Mobility is associated with worse outcomes across the HIV treatment cascade, especially among men. However, little is known about the mechanisms that link mobility and poor HIV outcomes and what types of mobility most increase the risk of treatment interruption among men in southern Africa.

METHODS

From August 2021 to January 2022, we conducted a mixed-methods study with men living with HIV (MLHIV) but not currently receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Malawi. Data collection was embedded within two larger trials (ENGAGE and IDEaL trials). We analysed baseline survey data of 223 men enrolled in the trials who reported being mobile (defined as spending ≥14 nights away from home in the past 12 months) using descriptive statistics and negative binomial regressions. We then recruited 32 men for in-depth interviews regarding their travel experiences and ART utilization. We analysed qualitative data using constant comparative methods.

RESULTS

Survey data showed that 34% of men with treatment interruptions were mobile, with a median of 60 nights away from home in the past 12 months; 69% of trips were for income generation. More nights away from home in the past 12 months and having fewer household assets were associated with longer periods out of care. In interviews, men reported that travel was often unplanned, and men were highly vulnerable to exploitive employer demands, which led to missed appointments and ART interruption. Men made major efforts to stay in care but were often unable to access care on short notice, were denied ART refills at non-home facilities and/or were treated poorly by providers, creating substantial barriers to remaining in and returning to care. Men desired additional multi-month dispensing (MMD), the ability to refill treatment at any facility in Malawi, and streamlined pre-travel refills at home facilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Men prioritize ART and struggle with the trade-offs between their own health and providing for their families. Mobility is an essential livelihood strategy for MLHIV in Malawi, but it creates conflict with ART retention, largely due to inflexible health systems. Targeted counselling and peer support, access to ART services anywhere in the country, and MMD may improve outcomes for mobile men.

How soon should patients be eligible for differentiated service delivery models for antiretroviral treatment? Evidence from a retrospective cohort study in Zambia

OBJECTIVES

Patient attrition is high the first 6 months after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Patients with <6 months of ART are systematically excluded from most differentiated service delivery (DSD) models, which are intended to support retention. Despite DSD eligibility criteria requiring ≥6 months on ART, some patients enrol earlier. We compared loss to follow-up (LTFU) between patients enrolling in DSD models early with those enrolled according to guidelines, assessing whether the ART experience eligibility criterion is necessary.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected electronic medical record data.

SETTING

PARTICIPANTS: Adults (≥15 years) who initiated ART between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2020.

OUTCOMES

LTFU (>30 days late for scheduled visit) at 18 months for 'early enrollers' (DSD enrolment after <6 months on ART) and 'established enrollers' (DSD enrolment after ≥6 months on ART). We used a log-binomial model to compare LTFU risk, adjusting for age, sex, location, ART refill interval and DSD model.

RESULTS

For 6340 early enrollers and 25 857 established enrollers, there were no differences in sex (61% female), age (median 37 years) or location (65% urban). ART refill intervals were longer for established versus early enrollers (72% vs 55% were given 4-6 months refills). LTFU at 18 months was 3% (192 of 6340) for early enrollers and 5% (24 646 of 25 857) for established enrollers. Early enrollers were 41% less likely to be LTFU than established patients (adjusted risk ratio 0.59, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.68).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients enrolled in DSD after <6 months of ART were more likely to be retained than patients established on ART prior to DSD enrolment. A limitation is that early enrollers may have been selected for DSD due to providers' and patients' expectations about future retention. Offering DSD models to ART patients soon after ART initiation may help address high attrition during the early treatment period.

TRIAL REGISTERATION NUMBER

NCT04158882.

Time to lost to follow-up and its predictors among adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy retrospective follow-up study Amhara Northwest Ethiopia

Antiretroviral therapy lowers viral load only when people living with HIV maintain their treatment retention. Lost to follow-up is the persistent major challenge to the success of ART program in low-resource settings including Ethiopia. The purpose of this study is to estimate time to lost to follow-up and its predictors in antiretroviral therapies amongst adult patients. Among registered HIV patients, 542 samples were included. Data cleaning and analysis were done using Stata/SE version 14 software. In multivariable Cox regression, a p-value < 0.05 at 95% confidence interval with corresponding adjusted hazards ratio (AHR) were statistically significant predictors. In this study, the median time to lost to follow-up is 77 months. The incidence density of lost to follow-up was 13.45 (95% CI: 11.78, 15.34) per 100 person-years. Antiretroviral therapy drug adherence [AHR: 3.04 (95% CI: 2.18, 4.24)], last functional status [AHR: 2.74 (95% CI: 2.04, 3.67)], and INH prophylaxis [AHR: 1.65 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.56) were significant predictors for time to lost to follow-up. The median time to lost was 77 months and incidence of lost to follow-up was high. Health care providers should be focused on HIV counseling and proper case management focused on identified risks.

Assessment of Factors Associated with Unfavorable Outcomes among Drug-Resistant TB Patients: A 6-Year Retrospective Study from Pakistan

The spread of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR TB) poses significant challenges to the control and successful eradication of TB globally. The current retrospective study was designed to evaluate the treatment outcomes and identify the risk factors associated with unsuccessful outcomes among DR TB patients. A total of 277/308 eligible DR TB patients were enrolled for treatment at the programmatic management unit of DR TB at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences, Islamabad between January 2014 and July 2019. Treatment outcomes were defined according to the WHO recommendations. Death, treatment failure, and lost to follow-up (LTFU) were collectively grouped as unsuccessful treatment outcomes, whereas cured and treatment completed were summed up together as successful treatment outcomes. Out of the total 277 patients, 265 (95.67%) were multidrug/rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB) cases, 8 (2.89%) were isoniazid resistant cases, and 4 (1.44%) were extensively drug-resistant ones. In the current cohort, a total of 177 (63.9%) achieved successful treatment outcomes. Among them, 153 (55.2%) were declared cured and 24 (8.7%) completed their treatment. Of the remaining 100 (36.1%) patients with unsuccessful outcomes, 60 (21.7%) died, 32 (11.5%) were LTFU, and 8 (2.9%) had failed treatment. The proportion of male patients was relatively higher (55.2%), within the age group of 21–40 years (47.3%) and lived in rural areas (66.8%). The multivariate analysis revealed that unsuccessful outcomes had a statistically significant association with being male (adjusted odds ratio, AOR: 1.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10–3.36), being in an age group above 60 years (AOR: 3.34, 95% CI: 1.09–10.1), suffering from any comorbidity (AOR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.35–5.38), and the history of use of second-line drugs (AOR; 3.51, 95% CI 1.35–9.12). In conclusion, treatment outcomes among DR TB patients at the study site were poor and did not achieve the treatment success target (≥75%) set by the World Health Organization.

Retention in care and predictors of attrition among HIV-infected patients who started antiretroviral therapy in Kinshasa, DRC, before and after the implementation of the 'treat-all' strategy

The retention of patients in care is a key pillar of the continuum of HIV care. It has been suggested that the implementation of a "treat-all" strategy may favor attrition (death or lost to follow-up, as opposed to retention), specifically in the subgroup of asymptomatic people living with HIV (PLWH) with high CD4 counts. Attrition in HIV care could mitigate the success of universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. We performed a retrospective study of PLWH at least 15 years old initiating ART in 85 HIV care centers in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), between 2010 and 2019, with the objective of measuring attrition and to define factors associated with it. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics recorded at ART initiation included sex, age, weight, height, WHO HIV stage, pregnancy, baseline CD4 cell count, start date of ART, and baseline and last ART regimen. Attrition was defined as death or loss to follow-up (LTFU). LTFU was defined as "not presenting to an HIV care center for at least 180 days after the date of a last missed visit, without a notification of death or transfer". Kaplan-Meier curves were used to present attrition data, and mixed effects Cox regression models determined factors associated with attrition. The results compared were before and after the implementation of the "treat-all" strategy. A total of 15,762 PLWH were included in the study. Overall, retention in HIV care was 83% at twelve months and 77% after two years of follow-up. The risk of attrition increased with advanced HIV disease and the size of the HIV care center. Time to ART initiation greater than seven days after diagnosis and Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis was associated with a reduced risk of attrition. The implementation of the "treat-all" strategy modified the clinical characteristics of PLWH toward higher CD4 cell counts and a greater proportion of patients at WHO stages I and II at treatment initiation. Initiation of ART after the implementation of the 'treat all" strategy was associated with higher attrition (p<0.0001) and higher LTFU (p<0.0001). Attrition has remained high in recent years. The implementation of the "treat-all" strategy was associated with higher attrition and LTFU in our study. Interventions to improve early and ongoing commitment to care are needed, with specific attention to high-risk groups to improve ART coverage and limit HIV transmission.

Designing a Predictive Model for Antiretroviral Regimen at the Antiretroviral Therapy Center in Chiro Hospital, Ethiopia

Nowadays, the huge amount of patient's data significantly increases with respect to the time in repositories and data mining is increasingly used as an emerging research area in medical fields for extracting useful and previously unknown insights/patterns from the repository data. These unknown patterns/hidden insights can help in discovering new knowledge hidden in these data repositories. From the observation, different ARV regimens were ordered for different patients. However, combination of these drugs causes different side effects on the patients. It has been observed that there was a lack of predictive studies and designed models available in hospitals specifically ART Centers that accurately determine or classify the patient's ARV regimen to TDF + 3TC + EFV, TDF + 3TC + NVP, AZT + 3TC + ATV/R, AZT + 3TC + LPV/R, TDF + 3TC + LVP/R, TDF + 3TC + ATV/R, 8888, and ABC + 3TC + LPV/R. In order to solve these kinds of problems, we built an accurate classifier system or model using parameters like Patient Age, Patient Encounter Day, Patient Encounter Month, Patient Encounter Year, Patient Weight, Patient CD4 Count Adult, Patient TB Screen, Patient Following WHO Stage, Patient CD4 Percent Child, Patient Regimen Specify, Patient Regimen, and so on. The general objective of this research was predictive modeling for the patient's ARV regimen class through data mining techniques so as to improve them. The study used the CRIPS-DM methodology to find and interpret patterns in repositories. A decision tree (J48 and Random Forest) algorithm was used for classification. Using all tested classifiers, the investigation of the study shows that the total accuracy was more than 60%. On the other hand, among different classifications, class H (ABC + 3TC + LPV/R) has shown the worst prediction. But it was revealed that the J48 classifier relatively produces higher classification accuracy for the D (AZT-3TC-NVP) regimen. Here, classification depended on the selected parameters, which revealed that prediction accuracy value differed among all classifiers and the selected attributes. Finally, the study concluded that data mining can be used as a significant technique to discover patient regimen based on salient affecting factors with 96.1% precision achieved. Ensemble learning resolves the categorizing models of greater anticipating performance with different learning algorithms. This model aligned with sentimental investigation to magnify the appearances of the dataset either from the social media or from primary data collection. The empirical investigation with different parameters shows the detailed improvement of their learning methods.

Level of non-adherence and its associated factors among adults on first-line antiretroviral therapy in Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

In Ethiopia, nearly one-third of people living with human immunodeficiency viruses do not adhere to antiretroviral therapy. Moreover, information regarding non-adherence and its associated factors among adults on first-line antiretroviral therapy in Northeast Ethiopia is limited. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the level of non-adherence and its associated factors among adults on first-line antiretroviral therapy in North Shewa Zone, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia.

METHODS

A facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 326 participants selected by systematic random sampling technique from the five randomly selected public health facilities. Data were collected using the questionnaire adapted from the studies conducted previously and the collected data were entered into Epi data version 3.1 and exported to Stata version 14 for further analysis. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was done and an adjusted odds ratio with its corresponding 95% confidence interval was used to declare a statistical significance.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of non-adherence was 17.4% [95% CI: (12.8%, 21.2%)]. Patients with no formal education [AOR (95% CI) = 5.57 (1.97, 15.88)], those who did not use memory aids to take their medications [AOR (95% CI) = 3.01 (1.27, 7.11)], travel more than 10 kilometers to visit the nearby antiretroviral therapy clinics [AOR (95% CI) = 2.42 (1.22, 25.86)], those who used substance [AOR (95% CI) = 3.57 (1.86, 28.69)], and patients whose medication time interfered with their daily routine activities [AOR (95% CI) = 15.46 (4.41, 54.28) had higher odds of having non-adherence to first-line antiretroviral therapy compared to their counter groups.

CONCLUSION

The level of non-adherence to first-line antiretroviral therapy was 17.4%, higher compared to WHO's recommendation. Hence, patients counseling focused on avoiding substance use, use memory aids, and adjusting working time with medication schedule are very crucial. Furthermore, the ministry of health and the regional health bureau with other stakeholders should expand antiretroviral therapy service delivery at health facilities that are close to the community to address distance barriers.

Retention in HIV care and associated factors among youths aged 15-24 years in rural southwestern Uganda

BACKGROUND

Retention in HIV care contributes to antiretroviral therapy adherence, which is a key factor for improved treatment outcomes and prevention of drug resistance. However, HIV treatment among the youths is characterized by loss to follow up, poor adherence to ART, risk of treatment failure and high mortality rates compared to young children and adults. There is limited information about factors associated with retention of youths in HIV care in rural settings in Uganda. We aimed to determine retention in HIV care and associated factors among youths aged 15-24 years in rural southwestern Uganda.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted among youths aged 15-24 years who were receiving care at the HIV clinic at Kabuyanda HC IV who had been in care for at least 1 year before the study. We used an interviewer-administered questionnaire to collect socio-demographic information. Participant chart abstraction was used to collect information on HIV clinic attendance. We collected information on HIV related stigma using the 40-item Berger Stigma Scale. Chi-square test and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to determine the factors associated with retention in HIV care with a significance level of < 0.05. Retention in HIV care was, defined as having sought care at least once per quarter in the 12 months prior to the study.

RESULTS

We enrolled 102 participants with a mean age of 20.95 (SD ± 3.07) years. Two thirds (65.7%) of the youths had been retained in HIV care in the previous 12 months. In adjusted analyses, being male, married and had perinatally acquired HIV were independently associated with retention in HIV care. The association between HIV related stigma and retention in HIV care was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Retaining adolescents and young adults in HIV care in rural southwestern Uganda is still much lower than the WHO target of 90%. Being male, having perinatally acquired HIV and married or in a relationship are associated with retention in HIV care. Interventions targeting adolescents and young adults living with HIV are necessary to improve retention in HIV care to the WHO target of 90%.