Assessing the climate change impact on the habitat suitability of the range-restricted bird species (Catreus wallichii) in the Indian Himalayan ecosystem

Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems' function and composition, changing living organisms' habitats. The Indian Himalayan ecosystem (IHE) is particularly susceptible and vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, our understanding of how climate change affects the habitats of range-restricted and vulnerable avifauna in the IHE still needs to be improved. Hence, we employed ensemble species distribution modelling to examine the potential habitat shift of the cheer pheasant (Catreus wallichii) under climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) i.e. RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) by 2050 and 2070. The study revealed a noticeable expansion of climatically suitable habitats, indicating a shift towards higher altitudes that would become more favourable and suitable under future climates. The model predicted an area of very highly suitable habitat (1247.4 km2), followed by highly suitable (2747.9 km2), moderately suitable (4002.3 km2), low suitable (4952.2 km2) and rarely suitable (4236 km2) in the current scenario. The projection of larger areas was falling into the "no change", followed by the "high suitable" and "low suitable" classes, for both the years 2050 and 2070 across all the RCPs. Furthermore, the projections indicated a consistent trend of increasing suitability for the cheer pheasant at higher elevations and a decline at lower elevations across RCPs for 2050 and 2070. Moreover, the mean diurnal temperature range was identified as the crucial driving factor, followed by isothermally and precipitation, influencing the species' shift towards suitable habitats at higher altitudes. The study can aid policymakers in developing effective conservation strategies to protect Himalayan range-restricted bird species in the face of climate change.

Scale-sensitivity in the measurement and interpretation of environmental niches

Species environmental niches are central to ecology, evolution, and global change research, but their characterization and interpretation depend on the spatial scale (specifically, the spatial grain) of their measurement. We find that the spatial grain of niche measurement is usually uninformed by ecological processes and varies by orders of magnitude. We illustrate the consequences of this variation for the volume, position, and shape of niche estimates, and discuss how it interacts with geographic range size, habitat specialization, and environmental heterogeneity. Spatial grain significantly affects the study of niche breadth, environmental suitability, niche evolution, niche tracking, and climate change effects. These and other fields will benefit from a more mechanism-informed choice of spatial grain and cross-grain evaluations that integrate different data sources.

Density Estimates and Habitat Preferences of Two Sympatric Bird Species as Potential Bioindicators of Tropical Forest Alterations

Forestry management can shape the structure of habitat types and have important biological consequences on the composition of biodiversity. This study focused on Momotus lessonii and Eumomota superciliosa, two potential bioindicators of local and wide scale tropical forest alterations. The study took place in the Karen Mogensen Wildlife Refuge (Costa Rica), a protected area characterized by two main forest habitats where the two species coexist, i.e., primary moist and second-growth dry forest. A distance sampling method was used to obtain density estimates for each species. A spot mapping approach showed an apparent partitioning of the two species at the site. The Kilometric Abundance Index (KAI) and statistical analyses revealed significant differences between the two habitats, i.e., E. superciliosa tended to be more abundant and preferred the dry forest, whilst M. lessonii favored moist environments. The development of arid and semi-arid environments characterized by open areas will probably lead to a numerical increase in E. superciliosa with a consequent expansion, while the decline of moister and homogeneously forested environments will likely affect negatively M. lessonii. We argue that these birds will act as bioindicators of local and global environmental changes, and their monitoring will enable appropriate forest management decisions for conservation purposes.

Phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism in sandflies (Diptera: Phlebotominae) and their relatives

Phylogenetic niche conservatism is a pattern in which closely related species are more similar than distant relatives in their niche-related traits. Species in the family Psychodidae show notable diversity in climatic niche, and present an opportunity to test for phylogenetic niche conservatism, which is as yet rarely studied in insects. Some species (in the subfamily Phlebotominae) transmit Leishmania parasites, responsible for the disease leishmaniasis, and their geographic range has been systematically characterized. Psychodid genus ranges can be solely tropical, confined to the temperate zones, or span both. We obtained observation site data, and associated climate data, for 234 psychodid species to understand which aspects of climate most closely predict distribution. Temperature and seasonality are strong determinants of species occurrence within the clade. Next, we built a phylogeny of Psychodidae, and found a positive relationship between pairwise genetic distance and climate niche differentiation, which indicates strong niche conservatism. This result is also supported by strong phylogenetic signals of metrics of climate differentiation. Finally, we used ancestral trait reconstruction to infer the tropicality (i.e., proportion of latitudinal range in the tropics minus the proportion of the latitudinal range in temperate areas) of ancestral species, and counted transitions to and from tropicality states. We find that tropical and temperate species produced almost entirely tropical and temperate descendant species, respectively. Taken together, our results imply that climate niches in psychodids are strongly predicted by phylogeny, and represent a formal test of a key prediction of phylogenetic niche conservatism in a clade with implications for human health.

Predicting the Geographic Range of an Invasive Livestock Disease across the Contiguous USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is the most common vesicular livestock disease in North America. Transmitted by direct contact and by several biting insect species, this disease results in quarantines and animal movement restrictions in horses, cattle and swine. As changes in climate drive shifts in geographic distributions of vectors and the viruses they transmit, there is considerable need to improve understanding of relationships among environmental drivers and patterns of disease occurrence. Multidisciplinary approaches integrating pathology, ecology, climatology, and biogeophysics are increasingly relied upon to disentangle complex relationships governing disease. We used a big data model integration approach combined with machine learning to estimate the potential geographic range of VS across the continental United States (CONUS) under long-term mean climate conditions over the past 30 years. The current extent of VS is confined to the western portion of the US and is related to summer and winter precipitation, winter maximum temperature, elevation, fall vegetation biomass, horse density, and proximity to water. Comparison with a climate-only model illustrates the importance of current processes-based parameters and identifies regions where uncertainty is likely to be greatest if mechanistic processes change. We then forecast shifts in the range of VS using climate change projections selected from CMIP5 climate models that most realistically simulate seasonal temperature and precipitation. Climate change scenarios that altered climatic conditions resulted in greater changes to potential range of VS, generally had non-uniform impacts in core areas of the current potential range of VS and expanded the range north and east. We expect that the heterogeneous impacts of climate change across the CONUS will be exacerbated with additional changes in land use and land cover affecting biodiversity and hydrological cycles that are connected to the ecology of insect vectors involved in VS transmission.

Historical and projected future range sizes of the world's mammals, birds, and amphibians

Species' vulnerability to extinction is strongly impacted by their geographical range size. Formulating effective conservation strategies therefore requires a better understanding of how the ranges of the world's species have changed in the past, and how they will change under alternative future scenarios. Here, we use reconstructions of global land use and biomes since 1700, and 16 possible climatic and socio-economic scenarios until the year 2100, to map the habitat ranges of 16,919 mammal, bird, and amphibian species through time. We estimate that species have lost an average of 18% of their natural habitat range sizes thus far, and may lose up to 23% by 2100. Our data reveal that range losses have been increasing disproportionately in relation to the area of destroyed habitat, driven by a long-term increase of land use in tropical biodiversity hotspots. The outcomes of different future climate and land use trajectories for global habitat ranges vary drastically, providing important quantitative evidence for conservation planners and policy makers of the costs and benefits of alternative pathways for the future of global biodiversity.

The Potential Role of Migratory Birds in the Rapid Spread of Ticks and Tick-Borne Pathogens in the Changing Climatic and Environmental Conditions in Europe

This opinion piece highlights the role of migratory birds in the spread of ticks and their role in the circulation and dissemination of pathogens in Europe. Birds with different lifestyles, i.e., non-migrants residing in a specific area, or short-, medium-, and long-distance migrants, migrating within one or several distant geographical regions are carriers of a number of ticks and tick-borne pathogens. During seasonal migrations, birds that cover long distances over a short time and stay temporarily in different habitats can introduce tick and pathogen species in areas where they have never occurred. An increase in the geographical range of ticks as well as the global climate changes affecting the pathogens, vectors, and their hosts increase the incidence and the spread of emerging tick-borne diseases worldwide. Tick infestations of birds varied between regions depends on the rhythms of tick seasonal activity and the bird migration rhythms determined by for example, climatic and environmental factors. In areas north of latitude ca. 58°N, immature Ixodes ricinus ticks are collected from birds most frequently, whereas ticks from the Hyalomma marginatum group dominate in areas below 42°N. We concluded that the prognosis of hazards posed by tick-borne pathogens should take into account changes in the migration of birds, hosts of many epidemiologically important tick species.

Parenting in a warming world: thermoregulatory responses to heat stress in an endangered seabird

The frequency of extreme weather events, including heat waves, is increasing with climate change. The thermoregulatory demands resulting from hotter weather can have catastrophic impacts on animals, leading to mass mortalities. Although less dramatic, animals also experience physiological costs below, but approaching, critical temperature thresholds. These costs may be particularly constraining during reproduction, when parents must balance thermoregulation against breeding activities. Such challenges should be acute among seabirds, which often nest in locations exposed to high solar radiation and predation risk. The globally endangered bank cormorant Phalacrocorax neglectus breeds in southern Africa in the winter, giving little scope for poleward or phenological shifts in the face of increasing temperatures. Physiological studies of endangered species sensitive to human disturbance, like the bank cormorant, are challenging, because individuals cannot be captured for experimental research. Using a novel, non-invasive, videographic approach, we investigated the thermoregulatory responses of this seabird across a range of environmental temperatures at three nesting colonies. The time birds spent gular fluttering, a behaviour enhancing evaporative heat loss, increased with temperature. Crouching or standing birds spent considerably less time gular fluttering than birds sitting on nests (ca 30% less at 22°C), showing that postural adjustments mediate exposure to heat stress and enhance water conservation. Crouching or standing, however, increases the vulnerability of eggs and chicks to suboptimal temperatures and/or expose nest contents to predation, suggesting that parents may trade-off thermoregulatory demands against offspring survival. We modelled thermoregulatory responses under future climate scenarios and found that nest-bound bank cormorants will gular flutter almost continuously for several hours a day by 2100. The associated increase in water loss may lead to dehydration, forcing birds to prioritize survival over breeding, a trade-off that would ultimately deteriorate the conservation status of this species.

An integration framework for linking avifauna niche and forest landscape models

Avian cavity nesters (ACN) are viable indicators of forest structure, composition, and diversity. Utilizing these species responses in multi-disciplinary climate-avian-forest modeling can improve climate adaptive management. We propose a framework for integrating and evaluating climate-avian-forest models by linking two ACN niche models with a forest landscape model (FLM), LANDIS-II. The framework facilitates the selection of available ACN models for integration, evaluation of model transferability, and evaluation of successful integration of ACN models with a FLM. We found selecting a model for integration depended on its transferability to the study area (Northern Rockies Ecoregion of Idaho in the United States), which limited the species and model types available for transfer. However, transfer evaluation of the tested ACN models indicated a good fit for the study area. Several niche model variables (canopy cover, snag density, and forest cover type) were not directly informed by the LANDIS-II model, which required secondary modeling (Random Forest) to derive values from the FLM outputs. In instances where the Random Forest models performed with a moderate classification accuracy, the overall effect on niche predictions was negligible. Predictions based on LANDIS-II simulations performed similarly to predictions based on the niche model’s original training input types. This supported the conclusion that the proposed framework is viable for informing avian niche models with FLM simulations. Even models that poorly approximate habitat suitability, due to the inherent constraints of predicting spatial niche use of irruptive species produced informative results by identifying areas of management focus. This is primarily because LANDIS-II estimates spatially explicit variables that were unavailable over large spatial extents from alternative datasets. Thus, without integration, one of the ACN niche models was not applicable to the study area. The framework will be useful for integrating avifauna niche and forest ecosystem models, which can inform management of contemporary and future landscapes under differing management and climate scenarios.

Consistent declines in wing lengths of Calidridine sandpipers suggest a rapid morphometric response to environmental change

A recent study demonstrated that semipalmated sandpiper (Calidris pusilla) wing lengths have shortened from the 1980s to the present-day. We examined alternative and untested hypotheses for this change at an important stopover site, James Bay, Ontario, Canada. We evaluated morphometric patterns in wing length and bill length by age and sex, when possible, and assessed if wing shape has also changed during this time-period. We investigated patterns of morphological change in two additional Calidridine sandpipers, white-rumped sandpipers (Calidris fuscicollis) and least sandpipers (Calidris minutilla), to determine if shorter wing lengths are a widespread pattern in small sandpipers. We also examined allometric changes in wing and bill lengths to clarify if wing length declines were consistent with historical scaling relationships and indicative of a change in body size instead of only wing length change. We found that including sex and wing shape in analyses revealed important patterns in morphometric change for semipalmated sandpipers. Wing lengths declined for both sexes, but the magnitude of decline was smaller and not significant for males. Additionally, semipalmated sandpiper wings have become more convex, a shape that increases maneuverability in flight. Wing lengths, but not bill lengths, declined for most species and age classes, a pattern that was inconsistent with historical allometric scaling relationships. For juvenile semipalmated sandpipers, however, both bill and wing lengths declined according to historical scaling relationships, which could be a consequence of nutritional stress during development or a shift in the proportion of birds from smaller-sized, western breeding populations. Except for juvenile semipalmated sandpipers, we did not find evidence for an increase in the proportion of birds from different breeding populations at the stopover site. Given the wide, hemispheric distribution of these sandpipers throughout their annual cycles, our results, paired with those from a previous study, provide evidence for wide-spread reduction in wing lengths of Calidridine sandpipers since the 1980s. The shorter wing lengths and more convex wing shapes found in this study support the hypothesis that selection has favored more maneuverable wing morphology in small sandpipers.

Recent drought and tree mortality effects on the avian community in southern Sierra Nevada: a glimpse of the future?

Birds respond rapidly to changes in both habitat and climate conditions and thus are good indicators of the ecological effects of a changing climate, which may include warmer temperatures, changing habitat conditions, and increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events like drought. We investigated how a widespread tree mortality event concurrent with a severe drought influenced the avian community of the Sierra Nevada mountain range in California. We assessed and compared the separate effects of climate stresses and altered habitat conditions on the avian community and used this information to evaluate the changes that are likely to occur in the near future. We built tree mortality maps from freely available Landsat imagery with Google Earth Engine. We analyzed avian point counts from 2010 to 2016 in the southern Sierra Nevada, to model temperature, water deficit, and tree mortality effects on the abundances of 45 bird species, and then used these models to project abundances into the future based on three climate projections. A large portion of the avian community, 47%, had a positive relationship with temperature increase, compared to 20% that responded negatively. More species (36%) declined with drier conditions than increased (29%). More species declined in response to high tree mortality (36%) than increased (9%). A preponderance of species adapted to colder temperatures (higher elevation) had negative responses to high tree mortality and water deficit, but positive responses to increasing temperature. We projected the highest total bird abundances in the future under the warmest climate scenario that we considered, but habitat modification (e.g., tree mortality) and water deficit could offset the positive influence of temperature for many species. As other studies have shown, climate warming may lead to substantial but idiosyncratic effects on wildlife species that could result in community composition shifts. We conclude that future climate conditions may not have a universally negative effect on biodiversity in the Sierra Nevada, but probable vegetation changes and increased likelihood of extreme events such as drought should be incorporated into climate-smart forest and wildlife management decisions.

Ambient temperature preferences of chimney swifts (Chaetura pelagica) for Nest Site Selection

Chimney swift (Chaetura pelagica) populations are declining rapidly, with no clear indication as to why. Reduced availability of nesting habitat (chimneys) was thought to be a limiting factor for this threatened species, but data from Ontario, Canada did not support this hypothesis. If availability is not limiting, then perhaps habitat quality may play a role. We examined the thermal aspect of chimneys that are used by nesting swifts. To do so, we identified upper and lower thermal limits influencing the selection of chimneys for nesting. Across Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, we deployed temperature loggers in 19 chimneys, 11 of which contained chimney swift nests and 8 that were deemed suitable for nesting but were not occupied. Temperature readings were recorded at 30-min intervals from 23 June to 15 September 2017. We found that chimney occupancy by swifts was negatively correlated with maximum and mean chimney temperature. We did not find a relationship between occupancy and minimum temperature, temperature fluctuations, or chimney material. These results indicate that chimney swifts are preferentially selecting cooler chimneys for nesting.

Climate change, woodpeckers, and forests: Current trends and future modeling needs

The structure and composition of forest ecosystems are expected to shift with climate-induced changes in precipitation, temperature, fire, carbon mitigation strategies, and biological disturbance. These factors are likely to have biodiversity implications. However, climate-driven forest ecosystem models used to predict changes to forest structure and composition are not coupled to models used to predict changes to biodiversity. We proposed integrating woodpecker response (biodiversity indicator) with forest ecosystem models. Woodpeckers are a good indicator species of forest ecosystem dynamics, because they are ecologically constrained by landscape-scale forest components, such as composition, structure, disturbance regimes, and management activities. In addition, they are correlated with forest avifauna community diversity. In this study, we explore integrating woodpecker and forest ecosystem climate models. We review climate-woodpecker models and compare the predicted responses to observed climate-induced changes. We identify inconsistencies between observed and predicted responses, explore the modeling causes, and identify the models pertinent to integration that address the inconsistencies. We found that predictions in the short term are not in agreement with observed trends for 7 of 15 evaluated species. Because niche constraints associated with woodpeckers are a result of complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and disturbance, we hypothesize that the lack of adequate representation of these processes in the current broad-scale climate-woodpecker models results in model-data mismatch. As a first step toward improvement, we suggest a conceptual model of climate-woodpecker-forest modeling for integration. The integration model provides climate-driven forest ecosystem modeling with a measure of biodiversity while retaining the feedback between climate and vegetation in woodpecker climate change modeling.

Time, geography and weather provide insights into the ecological strategy of a migrant species

Farmland and migratory bird populations are in decline. The Common quail (Coturnix coturnix) provides an exception to this trend and its populations have remained stable over the last two decades. However, some basic facts regarding quail biology and ecology, such as the geographic distribution of age and sex classes during the summer, remain poorly understood. We analyzed 43,194 Spanish quail ringing records from 1961 to 2014 to assess the effects of geography and weather conditions on the probability that individuals will be ringed during the various stages of their annual cycle (arrival -spring migration-, stationary breeding period, departure -autumn migration- and winter) for the different quail age-sex classes over time. We found that spatial distribution of the age and sex classes can be explained by date, latitude, longitude, altitude, rainfall, and temperature. Our results suggest that date accounts for most of the variation in the distribution of quail age classes, followed by the weather variables, and then latitude, and altitude. Similarly, date also accounts for most of the variation in the distribution of the two sexes. These results could partially explain why this species has avoided population decline, since its ecological strategy is based on its temporal and spatial distribution combined with the segregation of age and sex groups. We hypothesize that the distribution of quail age and sex classes follows variations in weather and habitat suitability to exploit seasonal and geographic variations in resource availability. The migratory and nomadic movements of quail, combined with the occurrence of multiple breeding attempts within a single season, may also allow these birds to overcome the impacts of predators and anthropogenic environmental change. Conservation and management efforts should therefore take account of these age and sex related temporal and spatial patterns.

Seasonal associations with novel climates for North American migratory bird populations

Determining the implications of global climate change for highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds requires a perspective that is spatiotemporally comprehensive and ecologically relevant. Here, we document how passerine bird species that migrate within the Western Hemisphere (n = 77) are associated with projected novel climates across the full annual cycle. Following expectations, highly novel climates occurred on tropical non-breeding grounds and the least novel climates occurred on temperate breeding grounds. Contrary to expectations, highly novel climates also occurred within temperate regions during the transition from breeding to autumn migration. This outcome was caused by lower inter-annual climatic variability occurring in combination with stronger warming projections. Thus, migrants are projected to encounter novel climates across the majority of their annual cycle, with a pronounced peak occurring when juveniles are leaving the nest and preparing to embark on their first migratory journey, which may adversely affect their chances of survival.

Present and future thermal environments available to Sharp-tailed Grouse in an intact grassland

Better understanding animal ecology in terms of thermal habitat use has become a focus of ecological studies, in large part due to the predicted temperature increases associated with global climate change. To further our knowledge on how ground-nesting endotherms respond to thermal landscapes, we examined the thermal ecology of Sharp-tailed Grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus) during the nesting period. We measured site-specific iButton temperatures (T_iB) and vegetation characteristics at nest sites, nearby random sites, and landscape sites to assess thermal patterns at scales relevant to nesting birds. We asked if microhabitat vegetation characteristics at nest sites matched the characteristics that directed macrohabitat nest-site selection. Grouse selected sites sheltered by dense vegetation for nesting that moderated T_iB on average up to 2.7°C more than available landscape sites. Successful nests were positioned in a way that reduced exposure to thermal extremes by as much as 4°C relative to failed nests with an overall mean daytime difference (±SE) of 0.4 ±0.03°C. We found that macrohabitat nest-site selection was guided by dense vegetation cover and minimal bare ground as also seen at the microhabitat scale. Global climate projections for 2080 suggest that T_iB at nest sites may approach temperatures currently avoided on the landscape, emphasizing a need for future conservation plans that acknowledge fine-scale thermal space in climate change scenarios. These data show that features of grassland landscapes can buffer organisms from unfavorable microclimatic conditions and highlight how thermal heterogeneity at the individual-level can drive decisions guiding nest site selection.

The avian community of the Karen Mogensen Reserve, a wealth of biodiversity within the poorly investigated and threatened environments of northwestern Costa Rica

Despite being characterized by some of the most threatened forest ecosystems of Mesoamerica, the Nicoya Peninsula is among the least known regions of neotropical Costa Rica in terms of its birdlife. Within this region, in the framework of an ongoing international cooperation program between Italy and Costa Rica, we had the opportunity to investigate the Karen Mogensen Reserve, a protected area distinguished by the presence of a variety of habitats, including tropical dry forest and moist forest. Species richness in the Reserve was relatively high compared with similar areas in northwestern Costa Rica. A series of surveys carried out over a 20-year period documented an avian community consisting of 207 species, of which 115 were breeding in the zone and another 14 were potentially breeding. We recorded five IUCN globally Vulnerable or Near-Threatened species, along with six species reported for the first time from the Nicoya Peninsula, each representing range extension of more than 100 km. Twenty-six species, mostly breeding in the area, are at their southernmost range borders, and are likely susceptible to global environmental alterations, such as the effects of climate change. Furthermore, our study revealed the presence of two species endemic to a restricted area of Central America and four subspecies endemic to Costa Rica, along with breeding populations of two species that are geographically isolated from the main ones. The present analysis led to the ecological characterization of the resident avian community, showing that 65% of the species are strictly associated with forested environments, and especially with the understory or middle tree level, hence more vulnerable to environmental change (climatic, anthropogenic, etc.) and susceptible to local extinction. These results underscore the importance of the Karen Mogensen Reserve for bird conservation within a vulnerable environmental context, and warrant the continuation of periodic bird surveys, taxonomic study of isolated populations or endemic taxa, and improvement of local conservation measures. The data collected will be an important tool for future studies aimed at evaluating the consequences of habitat fragmentation and to monitor the effects of climate change on the resident avifauna. We exhort the creation of programs that integrate bird monitoring, ecological research, conservation initiatives, and the involvement of the local communities, by promoting environmental education, capacity-building, and income generation. To this purpose, the Karen Mogensen Reserve may represent a convincing model and valuable example to apply in similar neotropical contexts.

A near half-century of temporal change in different facets of avian diversity

Assessments of spatial patterns of biodiversity change are essential to detect a signature of anthropogenic impacts, inform monitoring and conservation programs, and evaluate implications of biodiversity loss to humans. While taxonomic diversity (TD) is the most commonly assessed attribute of biodiversity, it misses the potential functional or phylogenetic implications of species losses or gains for ecosystems. Functional diversity (FD) and phylogenetic diversity (PD) are able to capture these important trait-based and phylogenetic attributes of species, but their changes have to date only been evaluated over limited spatial and temporal extents. Employing a novel framework for addressing detectability, we here comprehensively assess a near half-century of changes in local TD, FD, and PD of breeding birds across much of North America to examine levels of congruency in changes among these biodiversity facets and their variation across spatial and environmental gradients. Time-series analysis showed significant and continuous increases in all three biodiversity attributes until ca. 2000, followed by a slow decline since. Comparison of avian diversity at the beginning and end of the temporal series revealed net increase in TD, FD, and PD, but changes in TD were larger than those in FD and PD, suggesting increasing biotic homogenization of avian assemblages throughout the United States. Changes were greatest at high elevations and latitudes - consistent with purported effects of ongoing climate change on biodiversity. Our findings highlight the potential of combining new types of data with novel statistical models to enable a more integrative monitoring and assessment of the multiple facets of biodiversity.

The Emergent Properties of Conspecific Attraction Can Limit a Species' Ability to Track Environmental Change

Multiple biotic, abiotic, and evolutionary constraints interact to determine a species' range. However, most species are not present in all suitable and accessible locations. Dispersal ability may explain why many species do not occupy all suitable habitat, but highly mobile species also exhibit a mismatch. Habitat selection behavior where individuals are site faithful and settle near conspecifics could create a social pressure that make a species' geographic range resistant to change. We investigated this possibility by using an individual-based model of habitat selection where habitat quality moved each year. Our model demonstrated the benefits of conspecific attraction in relatively stable environments and its detrimental influence when habitat quality shifted rapidly. These results were most apparent when adult survival was high, because site fidelity led to more individuals occupying poor-quality habitat areas as habitat quality changed. These individuals attracted other dispersing individuals, thereby decreasing the ability to track shifts in habitat quality, which we refer to as "social inertia." Consequently, social inertia may arise for species that exhibit site fidelity and conspecific attraction, which may have conservation implications in light of climate change and widespread alteration of natural habitats.

Genetic structure among greater white-fronted goose populations of the Pacific Flyway

An understanding of the genetic structure of populations in the wild is essential for long‐term conservation and stewardship in the face of environmental change. Knowledge of the present‐day distribution of genetic lineages (phylogeography) of a species is especially important for organisms that are exploited or utilize habitats that may be jeopardized by human intervention, including climate change. Here, we describe mitochondrial (mtDNA) and nuclear genetic (microsatellite) diversity among three populations of a migratory bird, the greater white‐fronted goose (Anser albifrons), which breeds discontinuously in western and southwestern Alaska and winters in the Pacific Flyway of North America. Significant genetic structure was evident at both marker types. All three populations were differentiated for mtDNA, whereas microsatellite analysis only differentiated geese from the Cook Inlet Basin. In sexual reproducing species, nonrandom mate selection, when occurring in concert with fine‐scale resource partitioning, can lead to phenotypic and genetic divergence as we observed in our study. If mate selection does not occur at the time of reproduction, which is not uncommon in long‐lived organisms, then mechanisms influencing the true availability of potential mates may be obscured, and the degree of genetic and phenotypic diversity may appear incongruous with presumed patterns of gene flow. Previous investigations revealed population‐specific behavioral, temporal, and spatial mechanisms that likely influence the amount of gene flow measured among greater white‐fronted goose populations. The degree of observed genetic structuring aligns well with our current understanding of population differences pertaining to seasonal movements, social structure, pairing behavior, and resource partitioning.

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates

How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans.

Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data to distributional shifts of Louisiana Waterthrush in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We summarized these shifts with indices of range size and position and compared them to the same indices obtained using more basic modeling approaches. Detection rates during point counts in BBS surveys were low, and models that ignored imperfect detection severely underestimated the proportion of area occupied and slightly overestimated mean latitude. Static models indicated Louisiana Waterthrush distribution was most closely associated with moderate temperatures, while dynamic occupancy models indicated that initial occupancy was associated with diurnal temperature ranges and colonization of sites was associated with moderate precipitation. Overall, the proportion of area occupied and mean latitude changed little during the 1997-2013 study period. Near-term forecasts of species distribution generated by dynamic models were more similar to subsequently observed distributions than forecasts from static models. Occupancy models incorporating a finite mixture model on detection - a new extension to correlated detection occupancy models - were better supported and may reduce bias associated with detection heterogeneity. We argue that replacing phenomenological static models with more mechanistic dynamic models can improve projections of future species distributions. In turn, better projections can improve biodiversity forecasts, management decisions, and understanding of global change biology.

Seasonal changes in the altitudinal distribution of nocturnally migrating birds during autumn migration

Wind plays a significant role in the flight altitudes selected by nocturnally migrating birds. At mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, atmospheric conditions are dictated by the polar-front jet stream, whose amplitude increases in the autumn. One consequence for migratory birds is that the region's prevailing westerly winds become progressively stronger at higher migration altitudes. We expect this seasonality in wind speed to result in migrants occupying progressively lower flight altitudes, which we test using density estimates of nocturnal migrants at 100 m altitudinal intervals from 12 weather surveillance radar stations located in the northeastern USA. Contrary to our expectations, median migration altitudes deviated little across the season, and the variance was lower during the middle of the season and higher during the beginning and especially the end of the season. Early-season migrants included small- to intermediate-sized long-distance migrants in the orders Charadriiformes and Passeriformes, and late-season migrants included large-bodied and intermediate-distance migrants in the order Anseriformes. Therefore, seasonality in the composition of migratory species, and related variation in migration strategies and behaviours, resulted in a convex-concave bounded distribution of migration altitudes. Our results provide a basis for assessing the implications for migratory bird populations of changes in mid-latitude atmospheric conditions probably occurring under global climate change.

A Ground-Nesting Galliform's Response to Thermal Heterogeneity: Implications for Ground-Dwelling Birds

The habitat selection choices that individuals make in response to thermal environments influence both survival and reproduction. Importantly, the way that organisms behaviorally respond to thermal environments depends on the availability and juxtaposition of sites affording tolerable or preferred microclimates. Although, ground nesting birds are especially susceptible to heat extremes across many reproductive stages (i.e., breeding, nesting, brood rearing), the mechanistic drivers of nest site selection for these species are not well established from a thermal perspective. Our goal was to assess nest site selection relative to the configuration of the thermal landscape by quantifying thermal environments available to a ground-nesting bird species inhabiting a climatically stressful environment. Using northern bobwhite (Colinus virginanus) as a model species, we measured black bulb temperature (Tbb) and vegetation parameters at 87 nests, 87 paired sites and 205 random landscape sites in Western Oklahoma during spring and summer 2013 and 2014. We found that thermal space within the study area exhibited differences in Tbb of up to 40°C during peak diurnal heating, resulting in a diverse thermal landscape available to ground-nesting birds. Within this thermally heterogeneous landscape, nest sites moderated Tbb by more than 12°C compared to random landscape sites. Furthermore, successful nests remained on average 6°C cooler than unsuccessful nests on days experiencing ambient temperatures ≥ 39°C. Models of future Tbb associated with 2080 climate change projections indicate that nesting bobwhites will face substantially greater Tbb throughout the landscape for longer durations, placing an even greater importance on thermal choices for nest sites in the future. These results highlight the capacity of landscape features to act as moderators of thermal extremes and demonstrate how thermal complexity at organism-specific scales can dictate habitat selection.

Migration timing and its determinants for nocturnal migratory birds during autumn migration

1. Migration is a common strategy used by birds that breed in seasonal environments, and multiple environmental and biological factors determine the timing of migration. How these factors operate in combination during autumn migration, which is considered to be under weaker time constraints relative to spring migration, is not clear. 2. Here, we examine the patterns and determinants of migration timing for nocturnal migrants during autumn migration in the north-eastern USA using nocturnal reflectivity data from 12 weather surveillance radar stations and modelled diurnal probability of occurrence for 142 species of nocturnal migrants. We first model the capacity of seasonal atmospheric conditions (wind and precipitation) and ecological productivity (vegetation greenness) to predict autumn migration intensity. We then test predictions, formulated under optimal migration theory, on how migration timing should be related to assemblage-level estimates of body size and total migration distance within the context of dietary guild (insectivore and omnivore) and level of dietary plasticity during autumn migration. 3. Our results indicate seasonal declines in ecological productivity delineate the beginning and end of peak migration, whose intensity is best predicted by the velocity of winds at migration altitudes. Insectivorous migrants departed earlier in the season and, consistent with our predictions, large-bodied and long-distance insectivorous migrants departed the earliest. Contrary to our predictions, large-bodied and some long-distance omnivorous migrants departed later in the season, patterns that were replicated in part by insectivorous migrants that displayed dietary plasticity during autumn migration. 4. Our findings indicate migration timing in the region is dictated by optimality strategies, modified based on the breadth and flexibility of migrant's foraging diets, with declining ecological productivity defining possible resource thresholds during which migration occurs when winds at migration altitudes are mild. These observations provide the basis to assess how avian migration strategies may be affected by adjustments in seasonal patterns of atmospheric circulation and ecological productivity that may occur under global climate change.

Precipitation and winter temperature predict long-term range-scale abundance changes in Western North American birds

Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32-year period. Using boosted regression trees, we built presence-absence and abundance models that related the presence and abundance of 132 bird species to spatial variation in climatic conditions. Presence/absence models built using 1970-1974 data forecast the distributions of the majority of species in the later time period, 1998-2002 (mean AUC = 0.79 ± 0.01). Hindcast models performed equivalently (mean AUC = 0.82 ± 0.01). Correlations between observed and predicted abundances were also statistically significant for most species (forecast mean Spearman's ρ = 0.34 ± 0.02, hindcast = 0.39 ± 0.02). The most stringent test is to test predicted changes in geographic patterns through time. Observed changes in abundance patterns were significantly positively correlated with those predicted for 59% of species (mean Spearman's ρ = 0.28 ± 0.02, across all species). Three precipitation variables (for the wettest month, breeding season, and driest month) and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most important predictors of bird distributions and abundances in this region, and hence of abundance changes through time. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can predict changes through time for some species, and that changes in precipitation and winter temperature appear to have already driven shifts in the geographic patterns of abundance of bird populations in western North America.

The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection

Recent studies clarify where the most vulnerable species live, where and how humanity changes the planet, and how this drives extinctions. We assess key statistics about species, their distribution, and their status. Most are undescribed. Those we know best have large geographical ranges and are often common within them. Most known species have small ranges. The numbers of small-ranged species are increasing quickly, even in well-known taxa. They are geographically concentrated and are disproportionately likely to be threatened or already extinct. Current rates of extinction are about 1000 times the likely background rate of extinction. Future rates depend on many factors and are poised to increase. Although there has been rapid progress in developing protected areas, such efforts are not ecologically representative, nor do they optimally protect biodiversity.

Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change

Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity of species to utilize these gradients under climate change.

Combining correlative and mechanistic habitat suitability models to improve ecological compensation

Only a few studies have shown positive impacts of ecological compensation on species dynamics affected by human activities. We argue that this is due to inappropriate methods used to forecast required compensation in environmental impact assessments. These assessments are mostly descriptive and only valid at limited spatial and temporal scales. However, habitat suitability models developed to predict the impacts of environmental changes on potential species' distributions should provide rigorous science-based tools for compensation planning. Here we describe the two main classes of predictive models: correlative models and individual-based mechanistic models. We show how these models can be used alone or synoptically to improve compensation planning. While correlative models are easier to implement, they tend to ignore underlying ecological processes and lack accuracy. On the contrary, individual-based mechanistic models can integrate biological interactions, dispersal ability and adaptation. Moreover, among mechanistic models, those considering animal energy balance are particularly efficient at predicting the impact of foraging habitat loss. However, mechanistic models require more field data compared to correlative models. Hence we present two approaches which combine both methods for compensation planning, especially in relation to the spatial scale considered. We show how the availability of biological databases and software enabling fast and accurate population projections could be advantageously used to assess ecological compensation requirement efficiently in environmental impact assessments.

Vulnerability of terrestrial island vertebrates to projected sea-level rise

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for biodiversity; however, a baseline, broad-scale assessment of the potential consequences of SLR for island biodiversity is lacking. Here, we quantify area loss for over 12 900 islands and over 3000 terrestrial vertebrates in the Pacific and Southeast Asia under three different SLR scenarios (1 m, 3 m and 6 m). We used very fine-grained elevation information, which offered >100 times greater spatial detail than previous analyses and allowed us to evaluate thousands of hitherto not assessed small islands. Depending on the SLR scenario, we estimate that 15-62% of islands in our study region will be completely inundated and 19-24% will lose 50-99% of their area. Overall, we project that between 1% and 9% of the total island area in our study region may be lost. We find that Pacific species are 2-3 times more vulnerable than those in the Indomalayan or Australasian region and risk losing 4-22% of range area (1-6 m SLR). Species already listed as threatened by IUCN are particularly vulnerable compared with non-threatened species. Under a simple area loss-species loss proportionality assumption, we estimate that 37 island group endemic species in this region risk complete inundation of their current global distribution in the 1 m SLR scenario that is widely anticipated for this century (and 118 species under 3 m SLR). Our analysis provides a first, broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR for island biodiversity and our findings confirm that islands are extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise even within this century.

Conceptual models of the processes and patterns of the ecological, evolutionary and bio-geographical consequences of global climate changes

A unifying conceptual model is constructed for the major effects of alternating periods of global warming and cooling and sea-level changes on the geographical distributions and the ecological and genetic characteristics of species and ecological communities.

The main results found are:

Direct impacts of climatic warming on heat stress in endothermic species: seabirds as bioindicators of changing thermoregulatory constraints

There is now abundant evidence that contemporary climatic change has indirectly affected a wide-range of species by changing trophic interactions, competition, epidemiology and habitat. However, direct physiological impacts of changing climates are rarely reported for endothermic species, despite being commonly reported for ectotherms. We review the evidence for changing physiological constraints on endothermic vertebrates at high temperatures, integrating theoretical and empirical perspectives on the morphology, physiology and behavior of marine birds. Potential for increasing heat stress exposure depends on changes in multiple environmental variables, not just air temperature, as well as organism-specific morphology, physiology and behavior. Endotherms breeding at high latitudes are vulnerable to the forecast, extensive temperature changes because of the adaptations they possess to minimize heat loss. Low-latitude species will also be challenged as they currently live close to their thermal limits and will likely suffer future water shortages. Small, highly-active species, particularly aerial foragers, are acutely vulnerable as they are least able to dissipate heat at high temperatures. Overall, direct physiological impacts of climatic change appear underrepresented in the published literature, but available data suggest they have much potential to shape behavior, morphology and distribution of endothermic species. Coincidence between future heat stress events and other energetic constraints on endotherms remains largely unexplored but will be key in determining the physiological impacts of climatic change. Multi-scale, biophysical modeling, informed by experiments that quantify thermoregulatory responses of endotherms to heat stress, is an essential precursor to urgently-needed analyses at the population or species level.

Spatiotemporal variation in avian migration phenology: citizen science reveals effects of climate change

A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3–6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing.