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Psistaki K, Kouis P, Michanikou A, Yiallouros PK, Papatheodorou SI, Paschalidou AΚ. Temporal trends in temperature-related mortality and evidence for maladaptation to heat and cold in the Eastern Mediterranean region. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 943:173899. [PMID: 38862043 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173899] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2024] [Revised: 05/24/2024] [Accepted: 06/08/2024] [Indexed: 06/13/2024]
Abstract
The eastern Mediterranean region is characterized by rising temperature trends exceeding the corresponding global averages and is considered a climate change hot-spot. Although previous studies have thoroughly investigated the impact of extreme heat and cold on human mortality and morbidity, both for the current and future climate change scenarios, the temporal trends in temperature-related mortality or the potential historical adaptation to heat and cold extremes has never been studied in this region. This study focuses on cardiovascular mortality and assesses the temporal evolution of the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT), as well as the disease-specific cold- and heat-attributable fraction of mortality in three typical eastern Mediterranean environments (Athens, Thessaloniki and Cyprus). Data on daily cardiovascular mortality (ICD-10 code: I00-I99) and meteorological parameters were available between 1999 and 2019 for Athens, 1999 to 2018 for Thessaloniki and 2004 to 2019 for Cyprus. Estimation of cardiovascular MMT and mortality fractions relied on time-series Poisson regressions with distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) controlling for seasonal and long-term trends, performed over a series of rolling sub-periods at each site. The results indicated that in Athens, the MMT decreased from 23 °C (67.5th percentile) in 1999-2007 to 21.8 °C (62nd percentile) in 2011-2019, while in Cyprus the MMT decreased from 26.3 °C (79th percentile) in 2004-2012 to 23.9 °C (66.5th percentile) in 2011-2019. In Thessaloniki, the decrease in MMT was rather negligible. In all regions under study, the fractions of mortality attributed to both cold and heat followed an upward trend throughout the years. In conclusion, the demonstrated increase in cold attributable fraction and the decreasing temporal trend of MMT across the examined sites are suggestive of maladaptation to extreme temperatures in regions with warm climate and highlight the need for relevant public health policies and interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kyriaki Psistaki
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, Greece.
| | | | | | | | - Stefania I Papatheodorou
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Rutgers School of Public Health, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.
| | - Anastasia Κ Paschalidou
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, Greece.
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Wu Y, Wen B, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Sera F, Lavigne E, Li S, Guo Y. Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 187:108691. [PMID: 38718673 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2023] [Revised: 03/19/2024] [Accepted: 04/23/2024] [Indexed: 05/19/2024]
Abstract
Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979-2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17-13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56-14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27-15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yao Wu
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Bo Wen
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre On Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Shanshan Li
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
| | - Yuming Guo
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
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Aghababaeian H, Ostadtaghizadeh A, Kiarsi M, Sarfaraz H, Ahvazi LA, Maniey M. The practices of heat adaptation among elderly in Dezful: A qualitative study. JOURNAL OF EDUCATION AND HEALTH PROMOTION 2024; 13:85. [PMID: 38720692 PMCID: PMC11078460 DOI: 10.4103/jehp.jehp_134_23] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/12/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Useful experiences of the elderly in adapting to the environment may play an important role in formulating future policies. This study was conducted to explain the past experiences of the elderly in Dezful in adapting to heat. MATERIALS AND METHODS This study was conducted with a qualitative research approach and a qualitative content analysis method in 2020 and 2021. The experiences of 18 elderly in Dezful were collected through semi-structured interviews via recording, face-to-face interviews, and data observation. Sampling was performed by the purpose-based method, and the data of this stage were analyzed using a content analysis approach using the Zhang and Wildemuth method. RESULTS During the data analysis process, three main themes were extracted, including psychophysiological, socioeconomic, and environmental adaptation. Also, twelve subthemes including changes in physiological conditions, urban architecture, house architecture, diet, clothing, business conditions, mindset, life conditions, and the use of factors (spirituality, experience, and natural capacities) were extracted. CONCLUSION Explaining the experiences of the elderly in Dezful, who have lived with heat for many years, can provide better identification of solutions and more tangible experiences of adaptation to heat for other communities. These experiences can be used in urban, cultural, and social planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hamidreza Aghababaeian
- Department of Medical Emergencies, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Abbas Ostadtaghizadeh
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Climate Change and Health Research Center (CCHRC), Institute for Environmental Research (IER), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Maryam Kiarsi
- Department of Medical Emergencies, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
| | - Hossein Sarfaraz
- Asistant Professor of Communication, Department of Communication Studies, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ladan Aragi Ahvazi
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
| | - Mohammad Maniey
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
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Sun Y, Zhu S, Wang D, Duan J, Lu H, Yin H, Tan C, Zhang L, Zhao M, Cai W, Wang Y, Hu Y, Tao S, Guan D. Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk. Nature 2024; 627:797-804. [PMID: 38480894 PMCID: PMC10972753 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07147-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2022] [Accepted: 02/01/2024] [Indexed: 03/18/2024]
Abstract
Evidence shows a continuing increase in the frequency and severity of global heatwaves1,2, raising concerns about the future impacts of climate change and the associated socioeconomic costs3,4. Here we develop a disaster footprint analytical framework by integrating climate, epidemiological and hybrid input-output and computable general equilibrium global trade models to estimate the midcentury socioeconomic impacts of heat stress. We consider health costs related to heat exposure, the value of heat-induced labour productivity loss and indirect losses due to economic disruptions cascading through supply chains. Here we show that the global annual incremental gross domestic product loss increases exponentially from 0.03 ± 0.01 (SSP 245)-0.05 ± 0.03 (SSP 585) percentage points during 2030-2040 to 0.05 ± 0.01-0.15 ± 0.04 percentage points during 2050-2060. By 2060, the expected global economic losses reach a total of 0.6-4.6% with losses attributed to health loss (37-45%), labour productivity loss (18-37%) and indirect loss (12-43%) under different shared socioeconomic pathways. Small- and medium-sized developing countries suffer disproportionately from higher health loss in South-Central Africa (2.1 to 4.0 times above global average) and labour productivity loss in West Africa and Southeast Asia (2.0-3.3 times above global average). The supply-chain disruption effects are much more widespread with strong hit to those manufacturing-heavy countries such as China and the USA, leading to soaring economic losses of 2.7 ± 0.7% and 1.8 ± 0.5%, respectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yida Sun
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Shupeng Zhu
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
- Advanced Power and Energy Program, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Daoping Wang
- Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK
- Centre for Climate Engagement, Department of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Jianping Duan
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface and Ecological Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Hui Lu
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
- Tsinghua University (Department of Earth System Science)-Xi'an Institute of Surveying and Mapping Joint Research Center for Next-Generation Smart Mapping, Beijing, China
| | - Hao Yin
- Department of Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Chang Tan
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Lingrui Zhang
- Department of Economics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
| | - Mengzhen Zhao
- School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Yong Wang
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Yixin Hu
- School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Shu Tao
- College of Urban Environment, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Dabo Guan
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
- The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK.
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de Schrijver E, Royé D, Gasparrini A, Franco OH, Vicedo-Cabrera AM. Exploring vulnerability to heat and cold across urban and rural populations in Switzerland. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, HEALTH : ERH 2023; 1:025003-25003. [PMID: 36969952 PMCID: PMC7614344 DOI: 10.1088/2752-5309/acab78] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Heat- and cold-related mortality risks are highly variable across different geographies, suggesting a differential distribution of vulnerability factors between and within countries, which could partly be driven by urban-to-rural disparities. Identifying these drivers of risk is crucial to characterize local vulnerability and design tailored public health interventions to improve adaptation of populations to climate change. We aimed to assess how heat- and cold-mortality risks change across urban, peri-urban and rural areas in Switzerland and to identify and compare the factors associated with increased vulnerability within and between different area typologies. We estimated the heat- and cold-related mortality association using the case time-series design and distributed lag non-linear models over daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality series between 1990-2017 in each municipality in Switzerland. Then, through multivariate meta-regression, we derived pooled heat and cold-mortality associations by typology (i.e. urban/rural/peri-urban) and assessed potential vulnerability factors among a wealth of demographic, socioeconomic, topographic, climatic, land use and other environmental data. Urban clusters reported larger pooled heat-related mortality risk (at 99th percentile, vs. temperature of minimum mortality (MMT)) (relative risk=1.17(95%CI:1.10;1.24, vs peri-urban 1.03(1.00;1.06), and rural 1.03 (0.99;1.08)), but similar cold-mortality risk (at 1st percentile, vs. MMT) (1.35(1.28;1.43), vs rural 1.28(1.14;1.44) and peri-urban 1.39 (1.27-1.53)) clusters. We found different sets of vulnerability factors explaining the differential risk patterns across typologies. In urban clusters, mainly environmental factors (i.e. PM2.5) drove differences in heat-mortality association, while for peri-urban/rural clusters socio-economic variables were also important. For cold, socio-economic variables drove changes in vulnerability across all typologies, while environmental factors and ageing were other important drivers of larger vulnerability in peri-urban/rural clusters, with heterogeneity in the direction of the association. Our findings suggest that urban populations in Switzerland may be more vulnerable to heat, compared to rural locations, and different sets of vulnerability factors may drive these associations in each typology. Thus, future public health adaptation strategies should consider local and more tailored interventions rather than a one-size fits all approach. size fits all approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evan de Schrijver
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate school of Health Sciences (GHS), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Dominic Royé
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Spain
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London United Kingdom
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London United Kingdom
| | - Oscar H Franco
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Pascal M, Wagner V, Corso M. Changes in the temperature-mortality relationship in France: Limited evidence of adaptation to a new climate. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2023; 67:725-734. [PMID: 36930363 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02451-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2022] [Revised: 01/18/2023] [Accepted: 03/03/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
CONTEXT Documenting trends in the health impacts of ambient temperature is key to supporting adaptation strategies to climate change. This paper explores changes in the temperature-related mortality in 18 French urban centers between 1970 and 2015. METHOD A multicentric time-series design with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models was adopted to model the shape of the relationship and assess temporal changes in risks and impacts. RESULTS The general shape of the temperature-mortality relationship did not change over time, except for an increasing risk at very low percentiles and a decreasing risk at very high percentiles. The relative risk at the 99.9th percentile compared to the 50th percentile of the 1970-2015 temperature distribution decreased from 2.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.95:2.79] in 1975 to 1.33 [95% CI: 1.14:1.55] in 2015. Between 1970 and 2015, 302,456 [95% CI: 292,723:311,392] deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperatures, corresponding to 5.5% [95% CI: 5.3:5.6] of total mortality. This burden decreased progressively, representing 7.2% [95% CI: 6.7:7.7] of total mortality in the 1970s to 3.4% [95% CI: 3.2:3.6] in the 2000s. However, the contribution of hot temperatures to this burden (higher than the 90th percentile) increased. DISCUSSION Despite the decreasing relative risk, the fraction of mortality attributable to extreme heat increased between 1970 and 2015, thus highlighting the need for proactive adaptation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathilde Pascal
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Santé Publique France, 12 Rue du Val d'Osne, 94415, St Maurice, France.
| | - Vérène Wagner
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Santé Publique France, 12 Rue du Val d'Osne, 94415, St Maurice, France
| | - Magali Corso
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Santé Publique France, 12 Rue du Val d'Osne, 94415, St Maurice, France
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Perry T, Obolski U, Peretz C. The Association Between High Ambient Temperature and Mortality in the Mediterranean Basin: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Curr Environ Health Rep 2023; 10:61-71. [PMID: 36417094 DOI: 10.1007/s40572-022-00386-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW The Mediterranean basin is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study is aimed at quantifying the risk of mortality associated with exposure to high ambient temperature in the Mediterranean basin in the general population and in vulnerable sub-populations. RECENT FINDINGS We retrieved effect estimates from studies linking temperature and mortality in the Mediterranean basin, between 2000 and 2021. In a meta-analysis of 16 studies, we found an increased risk of all-cause mortality due to ambient heat/high temperature exposure in the Mediterranean basin, with a pooled RR of 1.035 (95%CI 1.028-1.041) per 1 °C increase in temperature above local thresholds (I2 = 79%). Risk was highest for respiratory mortality (RR = 1.063, 95% CI 1.052-1.074) and cardiovascular mortality (RR = 1.046, 95% CI 1.036-1.057). Hot ambient temperatures increase the mortality risk across the Mediterranean basin. Further studies, especially in North African, Asian Mediterranean, and eastern European countries, are needed to bolster regional preparedness against future heat-related health burdens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Talila Perry
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Uri Obolski
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Exact Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Chava Peretz
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
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Ordanovich D, Tobías A, Ramiro D. Temporal variation of the temperature-mortality association in Spain: a nationwide analysis. Environ Health 2023; 22:5. [PMID: 36635705 PMCID: PMC9838025 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-022-00957-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2022] [Accepted: 12/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although adaptation to continuously rising ambient temperatures is an emerging topic and has been widely studied at a global scale, detailed analysis of the joint indicators for long-term adaptation in Spain are scarce. This study aims to explore temporal variations of the minimum mortality temperature and mortality burden from heat and cold between 1979 and 2018. METHODS We collected individual all-cause mortality and climate reanalysis data for 4 decades at a daily time step. To estimate the temperature-mortality association for each decade, we fitted a quasi-Poisson time-series regression model using a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, controlling for trends and day of the week. We also calculated attributable mortality fractions by age and sex for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponds to the minimum mortality in each period. RESULTS We analysed over 14 million deaths registered in Spain between 1979 and 2018. The optimum temperature estimated at a nationwide scale declined from 21 °C in 1979-1988 to 16 °C in 1999-2008, and raised to 18 °C in 2009-2018. The mortality burden from moderate cold showed a 3-fold reduction down to 2.4% in 2009-2018. Since 1988-1999, the mortality risk attributable to moderate (extreme) heat reduced from 0.9% (0.8%) to 0.6% (0.5%). The mortality risk due to heat in women was almost 2 times larger than in men, and did not decrease over time. CONCLUSION Despite the progressively warmer temperatures in Spain, we observed a persistent flattening of the exposure-response curves, which marked an expansion of the uncertainty range of the optimal temperatures. Adaptation has been produced to some extent in a non-uniform manner with a substantial decrease in cold-related mortality, while for heat it became more apparent in the most recent decade only.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dariya Ordanovich
- Institute of Economy, Geography y Demography (IEGD), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Madrid, Spain.
| | - Aurelio Tobías
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Diego Ramiro
- Institute of Economy, Geography y Demography (IEGD), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Madrid, Spain
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Navas-Martín MÁ, López-Bueno JA, Ascaso-Sánchez MS, Follos F, Vellón JM, Mirón IJ, Luna MY, Sánchez-Martínez G, Linares C, Díaz J. Heat Adaptation among the Elderly in Spain (1983-2018). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:1314. [PMID: 36674069 PMCID: PMC9858820 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20021314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2022] [Revised: 01/02/2023] [Accepted: 01/06/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The capacity for adaptation to climate change is limited, and the elderly rank high among the most exposed population groups. To date, few studies have addressed the issue of heat adaptation, and little is known about the long-term effects of exposure to heat. One indicator that allows the ascertainment of a population's level of adaptation to heat is the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), which links temperature and daily mortality. The aim of this study was to ascertain, firstly, adaptation to heat among persons aged ≥ 65 years across the period 1983 to 2018 through analysis of the MMT; and secondly, the trend in such adaptation to heat over time with respect to the total population. A retrospective longitudinal ecological time series study was conducted, using data on daily mortality and maximum daily temperature across the study period. Over time, the MMT was highest among elderly people, with a value of 28.6 °C (95%CI 28.3-28.9) versus 28.2 °C (95%CI 27.83-28.51) for the total population, though this difference was not statistically significant. A total of 62% of Spanish provinces included populations of elderly people that had adapted to heat during the study period. In general, elderly persons' level of adaptation registered an average value of 0.11 (°C/decade).
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
- Doctorate Program in Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, National University of Distance Education, 28015 Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | - Fernando Follos
- Tdot Soluciones Sostenibles, SL., Ferrol, 15401 A Coruña, Spain
| | | | - Isidro Juan Mirón
- Regional Health Authority of Castile La Mancha, 45500 Torrijos, Spain
| | | | | | - Cristina Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - Julio Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, 28029 Madrid, Spain
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Psistaki K, Dokas IM, Paschalidou AK. The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Cardiorespiratory Mortality in Northern Greece. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 20:555. [PMID: 36612877 PMCID: PMC9819162 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20010555] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2022] [Revised: 12/22/2022] [Accepted: 12/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
It is well-established that exposure to non-optimum temperatures adversely affects public health, with the negative impact varying with latitude, as well as various climatic and population characteristics. This work aims to assess the relationship between ambient temperature and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, in Northern Greece. For this, a standard time-series over-dispersed Poisson regression was fit, along with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM), using a maximum lag of 21 days, to capture the non-linear and delayed temperature-related effects. A U-shaped relationship was found between temperature and cardiorespiratory mortality for the overall population and various subgroups and the minimum mortality temperature was observed around the 65th percentile of the temperature distribution. Exposure to extremely high temperatures was found to put the highest risk of cardiorespiratory mortality in all cases, except for females which were found to be more sensitive to extreme cold. It is remarkable that the highest burden of temperature-related mortality was attributed to moderate temperatures and primarily to moderate cold. The elderly were found to be particularly susceptible to both cold and hot thermal stress. These results provide new evidence on the health response of the population to low and high temperatures and could be useful to local authorities and policy-makers for developing interventions and prevention strategies for reducing the adverse impact of ambient temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kyriaki Psistaki
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, 68200 Orestiada, Greece
| | - Ioannis M. Dokas
- Department of Civil Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, 67100 Xanthi, Greece
| | - Anastasia K. Paschalidou
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, 68200 Orestiada, Greece
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Roca-Barceló A, Fecht D, Pirani M, Piel FB, Nardocci AC, Vineis P. Trends in Temperature-associated Mortality in São Paulo (Brazil) between 2000 and 2018: an Example of Disparities in Adaptation to Cold and Heat. J Urban Health 2022; 99:1012-1026. [PMID: 36357626 PMCID: PMC9727050 DOI: 10.1007/s11524-022-00695-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Exposure to non-optimal temperatures remains the single most deathful direct climate change impact to health. The risk varies based on the adaptation capacity of the exposed population which can be driven by climatic and/or non-climatic factors subject to fluctuations over time. We investigated temporal changes in the exposure-response relationship between daily mean temperature and mortality by cause of death, sex, age, and ethnicity in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil (2000-2018). We fitted a quasi-Poisson regression model with time-varying distributed-lag non-linear model (tv-DLNM) to obtain annual estimates. We used two indicators of adaptation: trends in the annual minimum mortality temperature (MMT), i.e., temperature at which the mortality rate is the lowest, and in the cumulative relative risk (cRR) associated with extreme cold and heat. Finally, we evaluated their association with annual mean temperature and annual extreme cold and heat, respectively to assess the role of climatic and non-climatic drivers. In total, we investigated 4,471,000 deaths from non-external causes. We found significant temporal trends for both the MMT and cRR indicators. The former was decoupled from changes in AMT, whereas the latter showed some degree of alignment with extreme heat and cold, suggesting the role of both climatic and non-climatic adaptation drivers. Finally, changes in MMT and cRR varied substantially by sex, age, and ethnicity, exposing disparities in the adaptation capacity of these population groups. Our findings support the need for group-specific interventions and regular monitoring of the health risk to non-optimal temperatures to inform urban public health policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aina Roca-Barceló
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK.
| | - Daniela Fecht
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK.,Protection Research Unit in Chemical and Radiation Threats and Hazards, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, National Institute for Health Research Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Monica Pirani
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Frédéric B Piel
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK.,Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Exposures and Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
| | - Adelaide C Nardocci
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Paolo Vineis
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
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Lehmann F, Alary PE, Rey G, Slama R. Association of Daily Temperature With Suicide Mortality: A Comparison With Other Causes of Death and Characterization of Possible Attenuation Across 5 Decades. Am J Epidemiol 2022; 191:2037-2050. [PMID: 35993227 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwac150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2021] [Revised: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 08/12/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Suicide is one of the leading causes of death in young adults in many Western countries. We examined the short-term association of temperature with cause-specific mortality, comparing suicide with other causes of death and describing possible attenuation of associations with temperature across decades. We considered all deaths that occurred in France between 1968 and 2016. For each cause of death, we conducted a 2-stage meta-analysis of associations with daily temperature. We stratified the association across time periods. A total of 502,017 deaths by suicide were recorded over 49 years. Temperature was monotonically associated with suicide mortality. The strongest association was found at lag 0 days. The relative risk of suicide mortality at the 99th (compared with the 1st) temperature percentile was 1.54 (95% confidence interval, 1.46, 1.63). Among all causes of death, suicide was the only cause displaying a monotonic trend with temperature and ranked seventh for heat-related mortality; 2 other causes of death implying the nervous system ranked third and fourth. Associations with temperature attenuated between the 1968-1984 and 1985-2000 periods for all-cause mortality and suicide mortality, without clear further attenuation in the 2001-2016 period. The robust short-term monotonic association between temperature and suicide risk could be considered in heat effects- and suicide-related prevention campaigns.
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13
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Ellena M, Ballester J, Costa G, Achebak H. Evolution of temperature-attributable mortality trends looking at social inequalities: An observational case study of urban maladaptation to cold and heat. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 214:114082. [PMID: 35964673 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2021] [Revised: 08/01/2022] [Accepted: 08/05/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND To date, little is known about the temporal variation of the temperature-mortality association among different demographic and socio-economic groups. The aim of this work is to investigate trends in cold- and heat- attributable mortality risk and burden by sex, age, education, marital status, and number of household occupants in the city of Turin, Italy. METHODS We collected daily time-series of temperature and mortality counts by demographic and socio-economic groups for the period 1982-2018 in Turin. We applied standard quasi-Poisson regression models to data subsets of 25-year moving subperiods, and we estimated the temperature-mortality associations with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). We provided cross-linkages between the evolution of minimum mortality temperatures, relative risks of mortality and temperature-attributable deaths under cold and hot conditions. RESULTS Our findings highlighted an overall increase in risk trends under cold and heat conditions. All-cause mortality at the 1st percentile increased from 1.15 (95% CI: 1.04; 1.28) in 1982-2006 to 1.24 (95% CI: 1.11; 1.38) in 1994-2018, while at the 99th percentile the risk shifted from 1.51 (95% CI: 1.41; 1.61) to 1.59 (95% CI: 1.49; 1.71). In relation to social differences, women were characterized by greater values in respect to men, and similar estimates were observed among the elderly in respect to the youngest subgroup. Risk trends by educational subgroups were mixed, according to the reference temperature condition. Finally, individuals living in conditions of isolation were characterized by higher risks, with an increasing vulnerability throughout time. CONCLUSIONS The overall increase in cold- and heat- related mortality risk suggests a maladaptation to ambient temperatures in Turin. Despite alert systems in place increase public awareness and improve the efficiency of existing health services at the local level, they do not necessarily prevent risks in a homogeneous way. Targeted public health responses to cold and heat in Turin are urgently needed to adapt to extreme temperatures due to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta Ellena
- Dept.Environmnetal Sciences, Informatics, and Statistics, Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia, Mestre, 30172, Italy; Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Regional Model and Geo-Hydrological Impacts (REMHI) Division, Caserta, 81100, Italy.
| | - Joan Ballester
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Barcelona, 08003, Spain.
| | - Giuseppe Costa
- Regional Epidemiology Unit, ASL TO3 Piedmont Region, Grugliasco, 10095, Italy.
| | - Hicham Achebak
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Barcelona, 08003, Spain.
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14
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Gasparrini A, Masselot P, Scortichini M, Schneider R, Mistry MN, Sera F, Macintyre HL, Phalkey R, Vicedo-Cabrera AM. Small-area assessment of temperature-related mortality risks in England and Wales: a case time series analysis. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e557-e564. [PMID: 35809585 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00138-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2021] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/16/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Epidemiological literature on the health risks associated with non-optimal temperature has mostly reported average estimates across large areas or specific population groups. However, the heterogeneous distribution of drivers of vulnerability can result in local differences in health risks associated with heat and cold. We aimed to analyse the association between ambient air temperature and all-cause mortality across England and Wales and characterise small scale patterns in temperature-related mortality risks and impacts. METHODS We performed a country-wide small-area analysis using data on all-cause mortality and air temperature for 34 753 lower super output areas (LSOAs) within 348 local authority districts (LADs) across England and Wales between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2019. We first performed a case time series analysis of LSOA-specific and age-specific mortality series matched with 1 × 1 km gridded temperature data using distributed lag non-linear models, and then a repeated-measure multivariate meta-regression to pool LAD-specific estimates using area-level climatological, socioeconomic, and topographical predictors. FINDINGS The final analysis included 10 716 879 deaths from all causes. The small-area assessment estimated that each year in England and Wales, there was on average 791 excess deaths (empirical 95% CI 611-957) attributable to heat and 60 573 (55 796-65 145) attributable to cold, corresponding to standardised excess mortality rates of 1·57 deaths (empirical 95% CI 1·21-1·90) per 100 000 person-years for heat and 122·34 deaths (112·90-131·52) per 100 000 person-years for cold. The risks increased with age and were highly heterogeneous geographically, with the minimum mortality temperature ranging from 14·9°C to 22·6°C. Heat-related mortality was higher in urban areas, whereas cold-related mortality showed a more nuanced geographical pattern and increased risk in areas with greater socioeconomic deprivation. INTERPRETATION This study provides a comprehensive assessment of excess mortality related to non-optimal outdoor temperature, with several risk indicators reported by age and multiple geographical levels. The analysis provides detailed risk maps that are useful for designing effective public health and climate policies at both local and national levels. FUNDING Medical Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, EU Horizon 2020 Programme, National Institute of Health Research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Pierre Masselot
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Rochelle Schneider
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Φ-Lab, European Space Agency, Frascati, Italy; Department of Forecasts, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, Reading, UK
| | - Malcolm N Mistry
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Helen L Macintyre
- Climate Change and Health Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, UK; School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Revati Phalkey
- Climate Change and Health Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, UK; Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham City Hospital, Nottingham, UK; Heidelberg Institute for Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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15
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Wu Y, Li S, Zhao Q, Wen B, Gasparrini A, Tong S, Overcenco A, Urban A, Schneider A, Entezari A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Zanobetti A, Analitis A, Zeka A, Tobias A, Nunes B, Alahmad B, Armstrong B, Forsberg B, Pan SC, Íñiguez C, Ameling C, De la Cruz Valencia C, Åström C, Houthuijs D, Van Dung D, Royé D, Indermitte E, Lavigne E, Mayvaneh F, Acquaotta F, de'Donato F, Rao S, Sera F, Carrasco-Escobar G, Kan H, Orru H, Kim H, Holobaca IH, Kyselý J, Madureira J, Schwartz J, Jaakkola JJK, Katsouyanni K, Hurtado Diaz M, Ragettli MS, Hashizume M, Pascal M, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho M, Ortega NV, Ryti N, Scovronick N, Michelozzi P, Correa PM, Goodman P, Nascimento Saldiva PH, Abrutzky R, Osorio S, Dang TN, Colistro V, Huber V, Lee W, Seposo X, Honda Y, Guo YL, Bell ML, Guo Y. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e410-e421. [PMID: 35550080 PMCID: PMC9177161 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00073-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2022] [Revised: 03/22/2022] [Accepted: 03/23/2022] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. METHODS In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6). INTERPRETATION Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yao Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| | - Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Bo Wen
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Ala Overcenco
- National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, Moldova
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Alireza Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Antonis Analitis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Baltazar Nunes
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Shih-Chun Pan
- NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - Caroline Ameling
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | | | - Christofer Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Danny Houthuijs
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | - Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Dominic Royé
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | | | | | - Shilpa Rao
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Lab, Institute of Tropical Medicine "Alexander von Humboldt", Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Hans Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Joana Madureira
- Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit-Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | | | | | - Niilo Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Patrick Goodman
- School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | | | - Rosana Abrutzky
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Valentina Colistro
- Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Veronika Huber
- IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Yue Leon Guo
- NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
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16
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Jin Z, Ma Y, Chu L, Liu Y, Dubrow R, Chen K. Predicting spatiotemporally-resolved mean air temperature over Sweden from satellite data using an ensemble model. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 204:111960. [PMID: 34464620 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2021] [Revised: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 08/23/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Mapping of air temperature (Ta) at high spatiotemporal resolution is critical to reducing exposure assessment errors in epidemiological studies on the health effects of air temperature. In this study, we applied a three-stage ensemble model to estimate daily mean Ta from satellite-based land surface temperature (Ts) over Sweden during 2001-2019 at a high spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km2. The ensemble model incorporated four base models, including a generalized additive model (GAM), a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM), and two machine learning models (random forest [RF] and extreme gradient boosting [XGBoost]), and allowed the weights for each model to vary over space, with the best-performing model for each grid cell assigned the highest weight. Various spatial predictors were included as adjustment variables in all the base models, including land cover type, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and elevation. The ensemble model showed high performance with an overall R2 of 0.98 and a root mean square error of 1.38 °C in the ten-fold cross-validation, and outperformed each of the four base models. Although each base model performed well, the two machine learning models (RF [R2 = 0.97], XGBoost [R2 = 0.98]) had better performance than the two regression models (GAM [R2 = 0.95], GAMM [R2 = 0.96]). In the machine learning models, Ts was the dominant predictor of Ta, followed by day of year, NDVI, latitude, elevation, and longitude. The highly spatiotemporally-resolved Ta can improve temperature exposure assessment in future epidemiological studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhihao Jin
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Yiqun Ma
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Lingzhi Chu
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Yang Liu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Robert Dubrow
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kai Chen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
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Zhang S, Wang B, Yin L, Wang S, Hu W, Song X, Feng H. Novel Evidence Showing the Possible Effect of Environmental Variables on COVID-19 Spread. GEOHEALTH 2022; 6:e2021GH000502. [PMID: 35317468 PMCID: PMC8923516 DOI: 10.1029/2021gh000502] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2021] [Revised: 11/09/2021] [Accepted: 11/17/2021] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remains a serious issue, and the role played by meteorological indicators in the process of virus spread has been a topic of academic discussion. Previous studies reached different conclusions due to inconsistent methods, disparate meteorological indicators, and specific time periods or regions. This manuscript is based on seven daily meteorological indicators in the NCEP reanalysis data set and COVID-19 data repository of Johns Hopkins University from 22 January 2020 to 1 June 2021. Results showed that worldwide average temperature and precipitable water (PW) had the strongest correlation (ρ > 0.9, p < 0.001) with the confirmed COVID-19 cases per day from 22 January to 31 August 2020. From 22 January to 31 August 2020, positive correlations were observed between the temperature/PW and confirmed COVID-19 cases/deaths in the northern hemisphere, whereas negative correlations were recorded in the southern hemisphere. From 1 September to 31 December 2020, the opposite results were observed. Correlations were weak throughout the near full year, and weak negative correlations were detected worldwide (|ρ| < 0.4, p ≤ 0.05); the lag time had no obvious effect. As the latitude increased, the temperature and PW of the maximum confirmed COVID-19 cases/deaths per day generally showed a decreasing trend; the 2020-year fitting functions of the response latitude pattern were verified by the 2021 data. Meteorological indicators, although not a decisive factor, may influence the virus spread by affecting the virus survival rates and enthusiasm of human activities. The temperature or PW threshold suitable for the spread of COVID-19 may increase as the latitude decreases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sixuan Zhang
- College of Atmospheric ScienceChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Bingyun Wang
- College of Atmospheric ScienceChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Li Yin
- Panzhihua Central HospitalPanzhihuaChina
| | - Shigong Wang
- College of Atmospheric ScienceChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina
- Zunyi Academician Work CenterZunyiChina
| | - Wendong Hu
- College of Atmospheric ScienceChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Xueqian Song
- College of ManagementChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Hongmei Feng
- College of Atmospheric ScienceChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina
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de Schrijver E, Bundo M, Ragettli MS, Sera F, Gasparrini A, Franco OH, Vicedo-Cabrera AM. Nationwide Analysis of the Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Trends in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017: The Role of Population Aging. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2022; 130:37001. [PMID: 35262415 PMCID: PMC8906252 DOI: 10.1289/ehp9835] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2021] [Revised: 01/27/2022] [Accepted: 01/31/2022] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Because older adults are particularly vulnerable to nonoptimal temperatures, it is expected that the progressive population aging will amplify the health burden attributable to heat and cold due to climate change in future decades. However, limited evidence exists on the contribution of population aging on historical temperature-mortality trends. OBJECTIVES We aimed to a) assess trends in heat- and cold-related mortality in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017 and b) to quantify the contribution of population aging to the observed patterns. METHODS We collected daily time series of all-cause mortality by age group (<65, 65-79, and 80 y and older) and mean temperature for each Swiss municipality (1969-2017). We performed a two-stage time-series analysis with distributed lag nonlinear models and multivariate longitudinal meta-regression to obtain temperature-mortality associations by canton, decade, and age group. We then calculated the corresponding excess mortality attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and compared it to the estimates obtained in a hypothetical scenario of no population aging. RESULTS Between 1969 and 2017, heat- and cold-related mortality represented 0.28% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.18, 0.37] and 8.91% (95% CI: 7.46, 10.21) of total mortality, which corresponded to 2.4 and 77 deaths per 100,000 people annually, respectively. Although mortality rates for heat slightly increased over time, annual number of deaths substantially raised up from 74 (12;125) to 181 (39;307) between 1969-78 and 2009-17, mostly driven by the ≥80-y-old age group. Cold-related mortality rates decreased across all ages, but annual cold-related deaths still increased among the ≥80, due to the increase in the population at risk. We estimated that heat- and cold-related deaths would have been 52.7% and 44.6% lower, respectively, in the most recent decade in the absence of population aging. DISCUSSION Our findings suggest that a substantial proportion of historical temperature-related impacts can be attributed to population aging. We found that population aging has attenuated the decrease in cold-related mortality and amplified heat-related mortality. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9835.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evan de Schrijver
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate school of Health Sciences (GHS), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Marvin Bundo
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate school of Health Sciences (GHS), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Martina S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Informatics, Applications, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Oscar H. Franco
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale: A Multicountry Study. Environ Epidemiol 2021; 5:e169. [PMID: 34934890 PMCID: PMC8683148 DOI: 10.1097/ee9.0000000000000169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2021] [Accepted: 08/02/2021] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. Results The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD. Conclusions The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.
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20
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Yatim ANM, Latif MT, Sofwan NM, Ahamad F, Khan MF, Mahiyuddin WRW, Sahani M. The association between temperature and cause-specific mortality in the Klang Valley, Malaysia. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:60209-60220. [PMID: 34156627 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-14962-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2021] [Accepted: 06/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
This study aims to examine the relationship between daily temperature and mortality in the Klang Valley, Malaysia, over the period 2006-2015. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the association between the mean temperature and mortality categories (natural n=69,542, cardiovascular n= 15,581, and respiratory disease n=10,119). Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter below 10 μm (PM10) and surface ozone (O3) was adjusted as a potential confounding factor. The relative risk (RR) of natural mortality associated with extreme cold temperature (1st percentile of temperature, 25.2 °C) over lags 0-28 days was 1.26 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.60), compared with the minimum mortality temperature (28.2 °C). The relative risk associated with extremely hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature, 30.2 °C) over lags 0-3 days was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.17). Heat effects were immediate whereas cold effects were delayed and lasted longer. People with respiratory diseases, the elderly, and women were the most vulnerable groups when it came to the effects of extremely high temperatures. Extreme temperatures did not dramatically change the temperature-mortality risk estimates made before and after adjustments for air pollutant (PM10 and O3) levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmad Norazhar Mohd Yatim
- Space Science Centre (ANGKASA), Institute of Climate Change, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
- Faculty of Science and Natural Resources, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, 88400, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Mohd Talib Latif
- Department of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia.
| | - Nurzawani Md Sofwan
- Department of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Mara, Sarawak Branch, Samarahan Campus, 94300, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, Malaysia
| | - Fatimah Ahamad
- AQ Expert Solutions, Jalan Dato Muda Linggi, 70100, Seremban, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
| | - Md Firoz Khan
- Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science, University of Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Wan Rozita Wan Mahiyuddin
- Climate Change Unit, Environmental Health Research Center, Institute for Medical Research, Level 2, Block C6, National Institute of Health, Jalan Setia Murni U13/52, Setia Alam, 40170, Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Mazrura Sahani
- Center for Toxicology and Health Risk Studies, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Jalan Raja Muda Abdul Aziz, 50300, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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21
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Follos F, Linares C, López-Bueno JA, Navas MA, Culqui D, Vellón JM, Luna MY, Sánchez-Martínez G, Díaz J. Evolution of the minimum mortality temperature (1983-2018): Is Spain adapting to heat? THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 784:147233. [PMID: 34088038 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2021] [Revised: 03/24/2021] [Accepted: 04/15/2021] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
The objective of this study was to analyze at the level of Spain's 52 provinces province level the temporal evolution of minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) from 1983 to 2018, in order to determine whether the increase in MMT would be sufficient to compensate for the increase in environmental temperatures in Spain for the period. It also aimed to analyze whether the rate of evolution of MMT would be sufficient, were it to remain constant, to compensate for the predicted increase in temperatures in an unfavorable (RCP 8.5) emissions scenario for the time horizon 2051-2100. The independent variable was made up of maximum daily temperature data (Tmax) for the summer months in the reference observatories of each province for the 1983-2018 period. The dependent variable was daily mortality rate due to natural causes (ICD 10: A00-R99). For each year and province, MMT was determined using a quadratic or cubic fit (p < 0.05). Based on the annual MMT values, a linear fit was carried out that allowed for determining the time evolution of MMT. These values were compared with the evolution of Tmax registered in each observatory during the 1983-2018 analyzed period and with the predicted values of Tmax obtained for an RCP8.5 scenario for the period 2051-2100. The rate of global variance in Tmax in the summer months in Spain during the 1983-2018 period was 0.41 °C/decade, while MMT across the whole country increased at a rate of 0.64 °C/decade. Variations in the provinces were heterogeneous. For the 2051-2100 time horizon, there was predicted increase in Tmax values of 0.66 °C/decade, with marked geographical differences. Although at the global level it is possible to speak of adaptation, the heterogeneities among the provinces suggest that the local level measures are needed in order to facilitate adaptation in those areas where it is not occurring.
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Affiliation(s)
- F Follos
- Tdot Soluciones Sostenibles, SL, Ferrol, A Coruña, Spain
| | - C Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - J A López-Bueno
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - M A Navas
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - D Culqui
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - J M Vellón
- Tdot Soluciones Sostenibles, SL, Ferrol, A Coruña, Spain
| | - M Y Luna
- State Meteorological Agency, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - J Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain.
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22
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Follos F, Linares C, López-Bueno JA, Navas MA, Culqui D, Vellón JM, Luna MY, Sánchez-Martínez G, Díaz J. Evolution of the minimum mortality temperature (1983-2018): Is Spain adapting to heat? THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021. [PMID: 34088038 DOI: 10.1186/s12302-021-00542-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
The objective of this study was to analyze at the level of Spain's 52 provinces province level the temporal evolution of minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) from 1983 to 2018, in order to determine whether the increase in MMT would be sufficient to compensate for the increase in environmental temperatures in Spain for the period. It also aimed to analyze whether the rate of evolution of MMT would be sufficient, were it to remain constant, to compensate for the predicted increase in temperatures in an unfavorable (RCP 8.5) emissions scenario for the time horizon 2051-2100. The independent variable was made up of maximum daily temperature data (Tmax) for the summer months in the reference observatories of each province for the 1983-2018 period. The dependent variable was daily mortality rate due to natural causes (ICD 10: A00-R99). For each year and province, MMT was determined using a quadratic or cubic fit (p < 0.05). Based on the annual MMT values, a linear fit was carried out that allowed for determining the time evolution of MMT. These values were compared with the evolution of Tmax registered in each observatory during the 1983-2018 analyzed period and with the predicted values of Tmax obtained for an RCP8.5 scenario for the period 2051-2100. The rate of global variance in Tmax in the summer months in Spain during the 1983-2018 period was 0.41 °C/decade, while MMT across the whole country increased at a rate of 0.64 °C/decade. Variations in the provinces were heterogeneous. For the 2051-2100 time horizon, there was predicted increase in Tmax values of 0.66 °C/decade, with marked geographical differences. Although at the global level it is possible to speak of adaptation, the heterogeneities among the provinces suggest that the local level measures are needed in order to facilitate adaptation in those areas where it is not occurring.
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Affiliation(s)
- F Follos
- Tdot Soluciones Sostenibles, SL, Ferrol, A Coruña, Spain
| | - C Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - J A López-Bueno
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - M A Navas
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - D Culqui
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - J M Vellón
- Tdot Soluciones Sostenibles, SL, Ferrol, A Coruña, Spain
| | - M Y Luna
- State Meteorological Agency, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - J Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain.
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Zhu D, Zhou Q, Liu M, Bi J. Non-optimum temperature-related mortality burden in China: Addressing the dual influences of climate change and urban heat islands. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 782:146760. [PMID: 33836376 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146760] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2021] [Revised: 03/22/2021] [Accepted: 03/22/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Under the dual effects of climate change and urban heat islands (UHI), non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens are complex and uncertain, and are rarely discussed in China. In this study, by applying city-specific exposure-response functions to multiple temperature and population projections under different climate and urbanization scenarios, we comprehensively assessed the non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens in China from 2000 to 2050. Our results showed that temperature-related deaths will decrease from 1.19 million in 2010 to 1.08-1.17 million in 2050, with the exception of the most populous scenario. Excess deaths attributable to non-optimal temperatures under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) were 2.35% greater than those under RCP4.5. This indicates that the surge in heat-related deaths caused by climate change will be offset by the reduction in cold-related deaths. As the climate changes, high-risk areas will be confronted with more severe health challenges, which requires health protection resource relocation strategies. Simultaneously, the net effects of UHIs are beneficial in the historical periods, preventing 3493 (95% CI: 22-6964) deaths in 2000. But UHIs will cause an additional 6951 (95% CI: -17,637-31,539, SSP4-RCP4.5) to 17,041 (95% CI: -10,516-44,598, SSP5-RCP8.5) deaths in 2050. The heavier health burden in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 indicates that a warmer climate aggravates the negative effects of UHIs. Considering the synergistic behavior of climate change and UHIs, UHI mitigation strategies should not be developed without considering climate change. Moreover, the mortality burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with heavy burdens concentrated in the hotspots including Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing City Group, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, Shandong, and Henan. These hotspots should be priority areas for the allocation of the national medical resources to provide effective public health interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dianyu Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
| | - Qi Zhou
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
| | - Miaomiao Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
| | - Jun Bi
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
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24
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Rodrigues M, Santana P, Rocha A. Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans. J Urban Health 2021; 98:516-531. [PMID: 33844122 PMCID: PMC8040763 DOI: 10.1007/s11524-021-00536-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Epidemiological studies on the impact of determining environmental factors on human health have proved that temperature extremes and variability constitute mortality risk factors. However, few studies focus specifically on susceptible individuals living in Portuguese urban areas. This study aimed to estimate and assess the health burden of temperature-attributable mortality among age groups (0-64 years; 65-74 years; 75-84 years; and 85+ years) in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, from 1986-2015. Non-linear and delayed exposure-lag-response relationships between temperature and mortality were fitted with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). In general, the adverse effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality were greater in the older age groups, presenting a higher risk during the winter season. We found that, for all ages, 10.7% (95% CI: 9.3-12.1%) deaths were attributed to cold temperatures in the winter, and mostly due to moderately cold temperatures, 7.0% (95% CI: 6.2-7.8%), against extremely cold temperatures, 1.4% (95% CI: 0.9-1.8%). When stratified by age, people aged 85+ years were more burdened by cold temperatures (13.8%, 95% CI: 11.5-16.0%). However, for all ages, 5.6% of deaths (95% CI: 2.7-8.4%) can be attributed to hot temperatures. It was observed that the proportion of deaths attributed to exposure to extreme heat is higher than moderate heat. As with cold temperatures, people aged 85+ years are the most vulnerable age group to heat, 8.4% (95% CI: 3.9%, 2.7%), and mostly due to extreme heat, 1.3% (95% CI: 0.8-1.8%). These results provide new evidence on the health burdens associated with alert thresholds, and they can be used in early warning systems and adaptation plans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mónica Rodrigues
- Department of Geography and Tourism, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal.
| | - Paula Santana
- Department of Geography and Tourism, Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Alfredo Rocha
- Department of Physics, Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal
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25
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Kouis P, Psistaki K, Giallouros G, Michanikou A, Kakkoura MG, Stylianou KS, Papatheodorou SI, Paschalidou AΚ. Heat-related mortality under climate change and the impact of adaptation through air conditioning: A case study from Thessaloniki, Greece. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 199:111285. [PMID: 34015294 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111285] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2020] [Revised: 04/27/2021] [Accepted: 05/01/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is expected to increase heat-related mortality across the world. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) studies are used to quantify the impact of higher temperatures, taking into account the effect of population adaptation. Although air-conditioning (AC) is one of the main drivers of technological adaptation to heat, the health impacts associated with AC-induced air pollution have not been examined in detail. This study uses the city of Thessaloniki, Greece as a case study and aims to estimate the future heat-related mortality, the residential cooling demand, and the adaptation trade-off between averted heat-related and increased air pollution cardiorespiratory mortality. Using temperature and population projections under different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CIMP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs), a HIA model was developed for the future heat and air pollution cardiorespiratory mortality. Counterfactual scenarios of either black carbon (BC) or natural gas (NG) being the fuel source for electricity generation were included in the HIA. The results indicate that the heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality in Thessaloniki will increase and the excess of annual heat-related deaths in 2080-2099 will range from 2.4 (95% CI: 0.0-20.9) under SSP1-2.6 to 433.7 (95% CI: 66.9-1070) under SSP5-8.5. Population adaptation will attenuate the heat-related mortality, although the latter may be counterbalanced by the higher air pollution-related mortality due to increased AC, especially under moderate SSP scenarios and coal-fired power plants. Future studies examining the health effects of warmer temperatures need to account for the impact of both adaptation and increased penetration and use of AC.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Kyriaki Psistaki
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, Greece.
| | - George Giallouros
- Department of Public and Business Administration, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus.
| | | | - Maria G Kakkoura
- Medical School, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus; Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit CTSU, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
| | - Katerina S Stylianou
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
| | | | - Anastasia Κ Paschalidou
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, Greece.
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Lee W, Ebi KL, Kim Y, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Hideki H, Choi HM, Choi M, Kim H. Heat-mortality risk and the population concentration of metropolitan areas in Japan: a nationwide time-series study. Int J Epidemiol 2021; 50:602-612. [PMID: 33346831 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyaa245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2020] [Accepted: 11/12/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The complex role of urbanisation in heat-mortality risk has not been fully studied. Japan has experienced a rapid population increase and densification in metropolitan areas since the 2000s; we investigated the effects of population concentration in metropolitan areas on heat-mortality risk using nationwide data. METHODS We collected time-series data for mortality and weather variables for all 47 prefectures in Japan (1980-2015). The prefectures were classified into three sub-areas based on population size: lowest (<1 500 000), intermediate (1 500 000 to 3 000 000), and highest (>3 000 000; i.e. metropolitan areas). Regional indicators associated with the population concentration of metropolitan areas were obtained. RESULTS Since the 2000s, the population concentration intensified in the metropolitan areas, with the highest heat-mortality risk in prefectures with the highest population. Higher population density and apartment % as well as lower forest area and medical services were associated with higher heat-mortality risk; these associations have generally become stronger since the 2000s. CONCLUSIONS Population concentration in metropolitan areas intensified interregional disparities in demography, living environments, and medical services in Japan; these disparities were associated with higher heat-mortality risk. Our results can contribute to policies to reduce vulnerability to high temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Whanhee Lee
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Hashimoto Hideki
- Department of Health Economics and Epidemiology Research, School of Public Health, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hayon Michelle Choi
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Moonjung Choi
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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27
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Follos F, Linares C, Vellón JM, López-Bueno JA, Luna MY, Sánchez-Martínez G, Díaz J. The evolution of minimum mortality temperatures as an indicator of heat adaptation: The cases of Madrid and Seville (Spain). THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 747:141259. [PMID: 32777504 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141259] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2020] [Revised: 07/15/2020] [Accepted: 07/24/2020] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
The increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves is one of the most unquestionable effects of climate change. Therefore, the progressive increase in maximum temperatures will have a clear incidence on the increase in mortality, especially in countries that are vulnerable due to geographical location or their socioeconomic characteristics. Different research studies show that the mortality attributable to heat is decreasing globally, and research is centred on future scenarios. One way of detecting the existence of a lesser impact of heat is through the increase in the so-called temperature of minimum mortality (TMM). The objective of this study is to determine the temporal evolution of TMM in two Spanish provinces (Seville and Madrid) during the 1983-2018 period and to evaluate whether the rate of adaptation to heat is appropriate. We used the gross rate of daily mortality due to natural causes (CIEX: A00-R99) and the maximum daily temperature (°C) to determine the quinquennial TMM using dispersion diagrams and realizing fit using quadratic and cubic curvilinear estimation. The same analysis was carried out at the annual level, by fitting an equation to the line of TMM for each province, whose slope, if significant (p < 0.05) represents the annual rate of variation in TMM. The results observed in this quinquennial analysis showed that the TMM is higher in Seville than in Madrid and that it is higher among men than women in the two provinces. Furthermore, there was an increase in TMM in all of the quinquennium and a clear decrease in the final period. At the annual level, the linear fit was significant for Madrid for the whole population and corresponds to an increase in the TMM of 0.58 °C per decade. For Seville the linear fits were significant and the slopes of the fitted lines was 1.1 °C/decade. Both Madrid and Seville are adapting to the increase in temperatures observed over the past 36 years, and women are the group that is more susceptible to heat, compared to men. The implementation of improvements and evaluation of prevention plans to address the impact of heat waves should continue in order to ensure adequate adaptation in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- F Follos
- Tdot Solurciones Sostenibles, SL. Ferrol. A Coruña, Spain
| | - C Linares
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - J M Vellón
- Tdot Solurciones Sostenibles, SL. Ferrol. A Coruña, Spain
| | - J A López-Bueno
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - M Y Luna
- State Meteorological Agency, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - J Díaz
- National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain.
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Varquez ACG, Darmanto NS, Honda Y, Ihara T, Kanda M. Future increase in elderly heat-related mortality of a rapidly growing Asian megacity. Sci Rep 2020; 10:9304. [PMID: 32518364 PMCID: PMC7283254 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-66288-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2019] [Accepted: 05/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Urban dwellers are at risk of heat-related mortality in the onset of climate change. In this study, future changes in heat-related mortality of elderly citizens were estimated while considering the combined effects of spatially-varying megacity’s population growth, urbanization, and climate change. The target area is the Jakarta metropolitan area of Indonesia, a rapidly developing tropical country. 1.2 × 1.2 km2 daily maximum temperatures were acquired from weather model outputs for the August months from 2006 to 2015 (present 2010s) and 2046 to 2055 (future 2050s considering pseudo-global warming of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The weather model considers population-induced spatial changes in urban morphology and anthropogenic heating distribution. Present and future heat-related mortality was mapped out based on the simulated daily maximum temperatures. The August total number of heat-related elderly deaths in Jakarta will drastically increase by 12~15 times in the 2050s compared to 2010s because of population aging and rising daytime temperatures under “compact city” and “business-as-usual” scenarios. Meanwhile, mitigating climate change (RCP 2.6) could reduce the August elderly mortality count by up to 17.34%. The downwind areas of the densest city core and the coastal areas of Jakarta should be avoided by elderly citizens during the daytime.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Nisrina S Darmanto
- Department of Transdisciplinary Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Tomohiko Ihara
- Department of Environment Systems, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Manabu Kanda
- Department of Transdisciplinary Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
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29
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Achebak H, Devolder D, Ingole V, Ballester J. Reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality from respiratory diseases in Spain. Nat Commun 2020; 11:2457. [PMID: 32433517 PMCID: PMC7239891 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16273-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2019] [Accepted: 04/23/2020] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
A growing number of epidemiological studies have recently assessed temporal variations in vulnerability and/or mortality attributable to hot and cold temperatures. However, the eventual changes in the seasonal distribution of temperature-attributable mortality remain unexplored. Here, we analyse countrywide daily time-series of temperature and mortality counts from respiratory diseases by sex, age group and province of residence during the period 1980–2016 in Spain. We show the complete reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality, with a significant shift of the maximum monthly incidence from winter to summer, and the minimum monthly incidence from early and late summer to winter. The reversal in the seasonal distribution of the attributable deaths is not driven by the observed warming in both winter and summer temperatures, but rather by the very large decrease in the risk of death due to cold temperatures and the relatively much smaller reduction due to hot temperatures. We conclude that the projected decrease in the number of moderate and extreme cold days due to climate warming will not contribute to a further reduction of cold-attributable respiratory deaths. Potential changes in the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality due to climate warming have been poorly investigated. Here, the authors show that the projected decrease in the number of moderate and extreme cold days will not contribute to a further reduction of cold-attributable deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hicham Achebak
- Centre for Demographic Studies (CED), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Barcelona, Spain.,Climate and Health Program (CLIMA), Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Daniel Devolder
- Centre for Demographic Studies (CED), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Vijendra Ingole
- Climate and Health Program (CLIMA), Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Joan Ballester
- Climate and Health Program (CLIMA), Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain.
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30
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Folkerts MA, Bröde P, Botzen WJW, Martinius ML, Gerrett N, Harmsen CN, Daanen HAM. Long Term Adaptation to Heat Stress: Shifts in the Minimum Mortality Temperature in the Netherlands. Front Physiol 2020; 11:225. [PMID: 32256386 PMCID: PMC7093592 DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2020.00225] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2019] [Accepted: 02/27/2020] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
It is essentially unknown how humans adapt or will adapt to heat stress caused by climate change over a long-term interval. A possible indicator of adaptation may be the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), which is defined as the mean daily temperature at which the lowest mortality occurs. Another possible indicator may be the heat sensitivity, i.e., the percentage change in mortality per 1°C above the MMT threshold, or heat attributable fraction (AF), i.e., the percentage relative excess mortality above MMT. We estimated MMT and heat sensitivity/AF over a period of 23 years for older adults (≥65 years) in the Netherlands using three commonly used methods. These methods are segmented Poisson regression (SEG), constrained segmented distributed lag models (CSDL), and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). The mean ambient temperature increased by 0.03°C/year over the 23 year period. The calculated mean MMT over the 23-year period differed considerably between methods [16.4 ± 1.2°C (SE) (SEG), 18.9 ± 0.5°C (CSDL), and 15.3 ± 0.4°C DLNM]. MMT increased during the observed period according to CSDL (0.11 ± 0.05°C/year) and DLNM (0.15 ± 0.02°C/year), but not with SEG. The heat sensitivity, however, decreased for the latter method (0.06%/°C/year) and did not change for CSDL. Heat AF was calculated for the DLNM method and decreased with 0.07%/year. Based on these results we conclude that the susceptibility of humans to heat decreases over time, regardless which method was used, because human adaptation is shown by either an increase in MMT (CSDL and DLNM) or a decrease in heat sensitivity for unchanged MMT (SEG). Future studies should focus on what factors (e.g., physiological, behavioral, technological, or infrastructural adaptations) influence human adaptation the most, so it can be promoted through adaptation policies. Furthermore, future studies should keep in mind that the employed method influences the calculated MMT, which hampers comparability between studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mireille A Folkerts
- Department of Human Movement Sciences, Faculty of Behavioural and Movement Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam Movement Sciences, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Peter Bröde
- Leibniz Research Centre for Working Environment and Human Factors (IfADo), Dortmund, Germany
| | - W J Wouter Botzen
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Mike L Martinius
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Nicola Gerrett
- Department of Human Movement Sciences, Faculty of Behavioural and Movement Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam Movement Sciences, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | | | - Hein A M Daanen
- Department of Human Movement Sciences, Faculty of Behavioural and Movement Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam Movement Sciences, Amsterdam, Netherlands
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Huang J, Zeng Q, Pan X, Guo X, Li G. Projections of the effects of global warming on the disease burden of ischemic heart disease in the elderly in Tianjin, China. BMC Public Health 2019; 19:1465. [PMID: 31694683 PMCID: PMC6836533 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-019-7678-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2018] [Accepted: 09/23/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the leading causes of deaths worldwide and causes a tremendous disease burden. Temperature is an important environmental determinant among the many risk factors for IHD. However, the emerging temperature-related health risks of IHD in the elderly is limited because of the lack of estimates that integrate global warming and demographic change. Methods Data on daily IHD deaths in the elderly aged ≥65 years and meteorological conditions were collected in Tianjin, a megacity of China, from 2006 to 2011. First, the baseline relationship between the temperature and years of life lost (YLL) from IHD was established. Then, future assessments were performed in combination with temperature projections for 19 global-scale climate models (GCMs) under 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2050s and 2070s. Results Increased YLL from IHD in the elderly was found to be associated with future ambient temperatures. The annual temperature-related YLL from IHD in the 2050s and 2070s were higher than the baseline. For instance, increases of 4.5, 14.9 and 38.3% were found under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the 2070s. The most significant increases occurred in warm season months. The increase in heat-related YLL will not be completely offset, even with the 25% adaptation assumed. When considering demographic change, the temperature-related disease burden of IHD in the elderly will be exacerbated by 158.4 to 196.6% under 3 RCPs in the 2050s and 2070s relative to the baseline. Conclusions These findings have significant meaning for environmental and public health policy making and interventions towards the important issue of the health impacts of global warming on the elderly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Huang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China
| | - Qiang Zeng
- Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, China
| | - Xiaochuan Pan
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China
| | - Xinbiao Guo
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China
| | - Guoxing Li
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China.
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32
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Yin Q, Wang J, Ren Z, Li J, Guo Y. Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change. Nat Commun 2019; 10:4640. [PMID: 31604931 PMCID: PMC6789034 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12663-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2019] [Accepted: 09/23/2019] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality relationship. It reflects human adaptability to local climate. The existing MMT estimates were usually based on case studies in data rich regions, and limited evidence about MMT was available at a global scale. It is still unclear what the most significant driver of MMT is and how MMT will change under global climate change. Here, by analysing MMTs in 420 locations covering six continents (Antarctica was excluded) in the world, we found that although the MMT changes geographically, it is very close to the local most frequent temperature (MFT) in the same period. The association between MFT and MMT is not changed when we adjust for latitude and study year. Based on the MFT~MMT association, we estimate and map the global distribution of MMTs in the present (2010s) and the future (2050s) for the first time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qian Yin
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. A11, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China
| | - Jinfeng Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. A11, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China.
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, A19, Yuquan Road, Shijingshan District, Beijing, China.
| | - Zhoupeng Ren
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. A11, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China
| | - Jie Li
- School of Resources and Environment, Ningxia University, No.489, Helanshan Road, Xixia District, Yinchuan, Ningxia, China
| | - Yuming Guo
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, No.100 Science Avenue, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
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Cheng J, Xu Z, Bambrick H, Su H, Tong S, Hu W. Impacts of exposure to ambient temperature on burden of disease: a systematic review of epidemiological evidence. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2019; 63:1099-1115. [PMID: 31011886 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-019-01716-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2019] [Revised: 03/25/2019] [Accepted: 03/27/2019] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Ambient temperature is an important determinant of mortality and morbidity, making it necessary to assess temperature-related burden of disease (BD) for the planning of public health policies and adaptive responses. To systematically review existing epidemiological evidence on temperature-related BD, we searched three databases (PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus) on 1 September 2018. We identified 97 studies from 56 counties for this review, of which 75 reported the fraction or number of health outcomes (include deaths and diseases) attributable to temperature, and 22 reported disability-adjusted life years (include years of life lost and years lost due to disability) related to temperature. Non-optimum temperatures (i.e., heat and cold) were responsible for > 2.5% of mortality in all included high-income countries/regions, and > 3.0% of mortality in all included middle-income countries. Cold was mostly reported to be the primary source of mortality burden from non-optimum temperatures, but the relative role of three different temperature exposures (i.e., heat, cold, and temperature variability) in affecting morbidity and mortality remains unclear so far. Under the warming climate scenario, almost all projections assuming no population adaptation suggested future increase in heat-related but decrease in cold-related BD. However, some studies emphasized the great uncertainty in future pattern of temperature-related BD, largely depending on the scenarios of climate, population adaptation, and demography. We also identified important discrepancies and limitations in current research methodologies employed to measure temperature exposures and model temperature-health relationship, and calculate the past and project future temperature-related BD. Overall, exposure to non-optimum ambient temperatures has become and will continue to be a considerable contributor to the global and national BD, but future research is still needed to develop a stronger methodological framework for assessing and comparing temperature-related BD across different settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Cheng
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia
| | - Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia
| | - Hong Su
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia.
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Achebak H, Devolder D, Ballester J. Trends in temperature-related age-specific and sex-specific mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Spain: a national time-series analysis. Lancet Planet Health 2019; 3:e297-e306. [PMID: 31230996 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(19)30090-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 99] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2019] [Revised: 05/03/2019] [Accepted: 05/08/2019] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change driven by human activities has increased annual temperatures in Spain by around 1°C since 1980. However, little is known regarding the extent to which the association between temperature and mortality has changed among the most susceptible population groups as a result of the rapidly warming climate. We aimed to assess trends in temperature-related cardiovascular disease mortality in Spain by sex and age, and we investigated the association between climate warming and changes in the risk of mortality. METHODS We did a country-wide time-series analysis of 48 provinces in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016. We extracted daily cardiovascular disease mortality data disaggregated by sex, age, and province from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics database. We also extracted daily mean temperatures from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset project. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression model for each province, controlling for seasonal and long-term trends, to estimate the temporal changes in the province-specific temperature-mortality associations with distributed lag non-linear models. We did a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to derive the best linear unbiased prediction of the temperature-mortality association and the minimum mortality temperature in each province. Heat-attributable and cold-attributable fractions of death were computed by separating the contributions from days with temperatures warmer and colder than the minimum mortality temperature, respectively. FINDINGS Between 1980 and 2016, 4 576 600 cardiovascular deaths were recorded. For warm temperatures, the increase in relative risk (RR) of death from cardiovascular diseases was higher for women than men and higher for older individuals (aged ≥90 years) than younger individuals (aged 60-74 years), whereas for cold temperatures, RRs were higher for men than women, with no clear pattern by age group. The heat-attributable fraction of cardiovascular deaths was higher for women in all age groups, and the cold-attributable fraction was larger in men. The heat-attributable fraction increased with age for both sexes, whereas the cold-attributable fraction increased with age for men and decreased for women. Overall minimum mortality temperature increased from 19·5°C between 1980 and 1994 to 20·2°C between 2002 and 2016, which is similar in magnitude to, and occurred in parallel with, the observed mean increase of 0·77°C that occurred in Spain between these two time periods. In general, between 1980 and 2016, the risk and attributable fraction of cardiovascular deaths due to warm and cold temperatures decreased for men and women across all age groups. For all the age groups combined, between 1980-94 and 2002-16, the heat-attributable fraction decreased by -42·06% (95% empirical CI -44·39 to -41·06) for men and -36·64% (-36·70 to -36·04) for women, whereas the cold-attributable fraction was reduced by -30·23% (-30·34 to -30·05) for men and -44·87% (-46·77 to -42·94) for women. INTERPRETATION In Spain, the observed warming of the climate has occurred in parallel with substantial adaptation to both high and low temperatures. The reduction in the RR and the attributable fraction associated with heat would be compatible with an adaptive response specifically addressing the negative consequences of climate change. Nevertheless, the simultaneous reduction in the RR and attributable fraction of cold temperatures also highlights the importance of more general factors such as socioeconomic development, increased life expectancy and quality, and improved health-care services in the country. FUNDING None.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hicham Achebak
- Centre for Demographic Studies, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Climate and Health Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Daniel Devolder
- Centre for Demographic Studies, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Joan Ballester
- Climate and Health Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain.
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Pires Bitencourt D, Alves Maia P, Cauduro Roscani R. The heat exposure risk to outdoor workers in Brazil. ARCHIVES OF ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH 2019; 75:281-288. [PMID: 31258055 DOI: 10.1080/19338244.2019.1633991] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Heat exposure is a major cause of health issues in outdoor workers. The aim of this study is to show a macro analysis of the heat exposure risk (HER) countrywide through the WBGT index. The index estimates are conducted from 50 years of meteorological observations. The HER takes into account the light, moderate, and heavy workloads, and the HER maps are separately generated decade by decade and season by season. It was found that HER has stronger effect on heavy workload workers during summer. It is even more critical in the Northern, Northeastern, and in part of Midwestern Brazil. There was HER increase in the last two decades, showing the need of applying control measures. It is very important taking continuous actions such as environmental and physiological monitoring, light clothing, and flexible work shifts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Pires Bitencourt
- FUNDACENTRO, Jorge Duprat Figueiredo Foundation for Occupational Safety and Medicine, Florianópolis, Brazil
| | - Paulo Alves Maia
- FUNDACENTRO, Jorge Duprat Figueiredo Foundation for Occupational Safety and Medicine, Campinas, Brazil
| | - Rodrigo Cauduro Roscani
- FUNDACENTRO, Jorge Duprat Figueiredo Foundation for Occupational Safety and Medicine, Campinas, Brazil
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He C, Ma L, Zhou L, Kan H, Zhang Y, Ma W, Chen B. Exploring the mechanisms of heat wave vulnerability at the urban scale based on the application of big data and artificial societies. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2019; 127:573-583. [PMID: 30986739 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.01.057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2018] [Revised: 01/22/2019] [Accepted: 01/22/2019] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Rapid urbanisation has altered the vulnerability of urban areas to heat wave disasters. There is an urgent need to identify the factors underlying the effect of heat waves on human health and the areas that are most vulnerable to heat waves. In this study, we plan to integrate indices associated with heat wave vulnerability based on meteorological observation data, remote sensing data and point of interest (POI) data; analyse the influence of urbanisation on the urban vulnerability environment; and explore the relationship between the vulnerability environment and heat-wave-related mortality. Finally, we attempt to map the spatial distribution of high heat-wave-related mortality risk based on the results of heat wave vulnerability study and artificial society. The results reveal that 1) there are differences in the influence of urbanisation on heat wave exposure, sensitivity and adaptability; 2) the exposure and sensitivity level effects on the lower limit of health impacts and the adaptability level effects on the upper limit of the health impact from heat wave in a given study area; and 3) areas vulnerable to the effects of heat waves are not confined to the city centre, which implies that residents living in suburban areas are also vulnerable to heat waves. Finally, this study not only explores the factors contributing to the impacts of heat waves but also describes the spatial distribution of the risk of disaster-associated mortality, thereby providing direct scientific guidance that can be used by cities to address heat wave disasters in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng He
- Department of Environment Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200082, China; Big Data Institute for Carbon Emission and Environmental Pollution, Fudan University, China; Shanghai Institute of Eco-Chongming (SIEC), No. 3663 Northern Zhongshan Road, Shanghai 200062, China
| | - Liang Ma
- College of System Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China
| | - Liguo Zhou
- Department of Environment Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200082, China; Big Data Institute for Carbon Emission and Environmental Pollution, Fudan University, China
| | - HaiDong Kan
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Yan Zhang
- Department of Environment Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200082, China; Big Data Institute for Carbon Emission and Environmental Pollution, Fudan University, China; Shanghai Institute of Eco-Chongming (SIEC), No. 3663 Northern Zhongshan Road, Shanghai 200062, China
| | - WeiChun Ma
- Department of Environment Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200082, China; Big Data Institute for Carbon Emission and Environmental Pollution, Fudan University, China; Shanghai Institute of Eco-Chongming (SIEC), No. 3663 Northern Zhongshan Road, Shanghai 200062, China.
| | - Bin Chen
- College of System Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China.
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Hu K, Guo Y, Hochrainer-Stigler S, Liu W, See L, Yang X, Zhong J, Fei F, Chen F, Zhang Y, Zhao Q, Chen G, Chen Q, Zhang Y, Ye T, Ma L, Li S, Qi J. Evidence for Urban-Rural Disparity in Temperature-Mortality Relationships in Zhejiang Province, China. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2019; 127:37001. [PMID: 30822387 PMCID: PMC6768324 DOI: 10.1289/ehp3556] [Citation(s) in RCA: 61] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2018] [Revised: 01/28/2019] [Accepted: 01/30/2019] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Temperature-related mortality risks have mostly been studied in urban areas, with limited evidence for urban-rural differences in the temperature impacts on health outcomes. OBJECTIVES We investigated whether temperature-mortality relationships vary between urban and rural counties in China. METHODS We collected daily data on 1 km gridded temperature and mortality in 89 counties of Zhejiang Province, China, for 2009 and 2015. We first performed a two-stage analysis to estimate the temperature effects on mortality in urban and rural counties. Second, we performed meta-regression to investigate the modifying effect of the urbanization level. Stratified analyses were performed by all-cause, nonaccidental (stratified by age and sex), cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. We also calculated the fraction of mortality and number of deaths attributable to nonoptimum temperatures associated with both cold and heat components. The potential sources of the urban-rural differences were explored using meta-regression with county-level characteristics. RESULTS Increased mortality risks were associated with low and high temperatures in both rural and urban areas, but rural counties had higher relative risks (RRs), attributable fractions of mortality, and attributable death counts than urban counties. The urban-rural disparity was apparent for cold (first percentile relative to minimum mortality temperature), with an RR of 1.47 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32, 1.62] associated with all-cause mortality for urban counties, and 1.98 (95% CI: 1.87, 2.10) for rural counties. Among the potential sources of the urban-rural disparity are age structure, education, GDP, health care services, air conditioners, and occupation types. CONCLUSIONS Rural residents are more sensitive to both cold and hot temperatures than urban residents in Zhejiang Province, China, particularly the elderly. The findings suggest past studies using exposure-response functions derived from urban areas may underestimate the mortality burden for the population as a whole. The public health agencies aimed at controlling temperature-related mortality should develop area-specific strategies, such as to reduce the urban-rural gaps in access to health care and awareness of risk prevention. Future projections on climate health impacts should consider the urban-rural disparity in mortality risks. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3556.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kejia Hu
- 1 Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University , Zhoushan, China
- 2 Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University , Melbourne, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- 2 Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University , Melbourne, Australia
| | | | - Wei Liu
- 3 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Linda See
- 3 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Xuchao Yang
- 1 Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University , Zhoushan, China
- 4 Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University , East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Jieming Zhong
- 5 Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Hangzhou, China
| | - Fangrong Fei
- 5 Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Hangzhou, China
| | - Feng Chen
- 6 Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences , Hangzhou, China
| | - Yunquan Zhang
- 7 Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University , Wuhan, China
- 8 Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology , Wuhan, China
| | - Qi Zhao
- 2 Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University , Melbourne, Australia
| | - Gongbo Chen
- 9 Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University , Wuhan, China
| | - Qian Chen
- 1 Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University , Zhoushan, China
| | - Yizhe Zhang
- 10 School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University , Guangzhou, China
| | - Tingting Ye
- 1 Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University , Zhoushan, China
| | - Lu Ma
- 7 Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University , Wuhan, China
| | - Shanshan Li
- 2 Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University , Melbourne, Australia
| | - Jiaguo Qi
- 4 Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University , East Lansing, Michigan, USA
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Liu T, Ren Z, Zhang Y, Feng B, Lin H, Xiao J, Zeng W, Li X, Li Z, Rutherford S, Xu Y, Lin S, Nasca PC, Du Y, Wang J, Huang C, Jia P, Ma W. Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16030376. [PMID: 30699991 PMCID: PMC6388188 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16030376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2018] [Revised: 01/23/2019] [Accepted: 01/24/2019] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tao Liu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Zhoupeng Ren
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
| | - Yonghui Zhang
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Baixiang Feng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Hualiang Lin
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
| | - Jianpeng Xiao
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Weilin Zeng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Xing Li
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Zhihao Li
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | | | - Yanjun Xu
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
| | - Shao Lin
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Pl, Rensselaer, NY 12148, USA.
| | - Philip C Nasca
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Pl, Rensselaer, NY 12148, USA.
| | - Yaodong Du
- Guangdong Provincial Climate Center, Guangzhou 510080, China.
| | - Jinfeng Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
| | - Cunrui Huang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
| | - Peng Jia
- Department of Earth Observation Science, Faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, 7500 Enschede, The Netherlands.
- International Initiative on Spatial Lifecourse Epidemiology (ISLE), 7500 Enschede, The Netherlands.
| | - Wenjun Ma
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
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Aykroyd RG. Bayesian modeling of temperature-related mortality with latent functional relationships. COMMUN STAT-THEOR M 2019. [DOI: 10.1080/03610926.2017.1421223] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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Roscani RC, Maia PA, Monteiro MI. Sobrecarga térmica em áreas rurais: a influência da intensidade do trabalho. REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE SAÚDE OCUPACIONAL 2019. [DOI: 10.1590/2317-6369000013818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Resumo Introdução: a legislação brasileira determina que se monitore o Índice de Bulbo Úmido Termômetro de Globo (IBUTG) nos ambientes de trabalho em que o calor possa representar risco à saúde dos trabalhadores. Porém, esse monitoramento e a adoção de medidas preventivas não são comumente observados. Objetivo: identificar e mapear a influência da intensidade do trabalho na extrapolação potencial de limites de sobrecarga térmica para trabalhadores em atividade a céu aberto em áreas rurais do Nordeste do Brasil. Métodos: com base na Norma Regulamentadora nº 15 e em dados do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, o software Sobrecarga Térmica foi utilizado para estimar os índices de IBUTG na região, no período de 1º de setembro de 2016 a 31 de agosto de 2017. Resultados: dos 132 pontos geográficos investigados, a extrapolação dos limites de sobrecarga térmica foi identificada em 48% dos trabalhos pesados e em 14% dos trabalhos moderados, indicando a necessidade de paradas para descanso em mais de 50% do tempo analisado. Discussão: a diminuição da intensidade do trabalho resulta em redução expressiva da sobrecarga térmica. Nas localidades historicamente reconhecidas pelo alto risco de exposição ao calor, deveria ser adotada, como medida efetiva de prevenção, a restrição ao estímulo de atividades extenuantes, sobretudo as promovidas pela remuneração atrelada à produtividade.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Paulo Alves Maia
- Fundação Jorge Duprat Figueiredo de Segurança e Medicina do Trabalho, Brasil
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Temporal Trends in Heat-Related Mortality: Implications for Future Projections. ATMOSPHERE 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos9100409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
High temperatures have large impacts on premature mortality risks across the world, and there is concern that warming temperatures associated with climate change, and in particular larger-than-expected increases in the proportion of days with extremely high temperatures, may lead to increasing mortality risks. Comparisons of heat-related mortality exposure-response functions across different cities show that the effects of heat on mortality risk vary by latitude, with more pronounced heat effects in more northerly climates. Evidence has also emerged in recent years of trends over time in heat-related mortality, suggesting that in many locations, the risk per unit increase in temperature has been declining. Here, I review the emerging literature on these trends, and draw conclusions for studies that seek to project future impacts of heat on mortality. I also make reference to the more general heat-mortality literature, including studies comparing effects across locations. I conclude that climate change projection studies will need to take into account trends over time (and possibly space) in the exposure response function for heat-related mortality. Several potential methods are discussed.
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Liu Y, Hoppe BO, Convertino M. Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2018; 38:2208-2221. [PMID: 29637591 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12998] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2017] [Revised: 01/25/2018] [Accepted: 03/05/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Liu
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Brenda O Hoppe
- Department of Health, Environmental Health Division, Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA
| | - Matteo Convertino
- Complexity Group, Division of Frontier Science & Media and Network Technologies, Laboratory of Information Communication Networks, Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
- Global Station for Big Data and Cybersecurity, Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education (GI-CoRE), Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
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Cheng J, Zhang Y, Zhang W, Xu Z, Bambrick H, Hu W, Tong S. Assessment of heat- and cold-related emergency department visits in cities of China and Australia: Population vulnerability and attributable burden. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2018; 166:610-619. [PMID: 29982149 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.06.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2018] [Revised: 06/12/2018] [Accepted: 06/12/2018] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Non-optimal ambient temperature has detrimental impacts on mortality worldwide, but little is known about the difference in population vulnerability to non-optimal temperature and temperature-related morbidity burden between developing and developed countries. OBJECTIVES We estimated and compared the associations of emergency department visits (EDV) with non-optimal temperature in terms of risk trigger temperature, the average slope of exposure-risk function and attributable risk in 12 cities from China and Australia. METHODS We modelled the associations of EDV with heat during warm season and with cold during cold season, separately, using generalized additive model. Population vulnerability within a given region was quantified with multiple risk trigger points including minimum risk temperature, increasing risk temperature and excessive risk temperature, and average coefficient of exposure-risk function. Fraction of EDV attributable to heat and cold was also calculated. RESULTS We found large between- and within-country contrasts in the identified multiple risk trigger temperatures, with higher heat and cold trigger points, except excessive risk temperature, observed in Australia than in China. Heat was associated with a relative risk (RR) of 1.009 [95% confidence interval (CI):1.007, 1.011] in China, which accounted for 5.9% of EDV. Higher RR of heat was observed in Australia (1.014, 95% CI: 1.010, 1.018), responsible for 4.0% of EDV. For cold effects, the RR was similar between two countries, but the attributable fraction was higher in China (9.6%) than in Australia (1.5%). CONCLUSIONS Exposure to heat and cold had adverse but divergent impacts on EDV in China and Australia. Further mitigation policy efforts incorporating region-specific population vulnerability to temperature impacts are necessary in both countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Cheng
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Yongming Zhang
- Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital; National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Wenyi Zhang
- Center for Disease Surveillance of PLA, Institute of Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing, China
| | - Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia.
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia.
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Oudin Åström D, Ebi KL, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Gasparrini A. Investigating changes in mortality attributable to heat and cold in Stockholm, Sweden. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2018; 62:1777-1780. [PMID: 29748912 PMCID: PMC6132879 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-018-1556-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2018] [Revised: 04/22/2018] [Accepted: 04/25/2018] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Projections of temperature-related mortality rely upon exposure-response relationships using recent data. Analyzing long historical data and trends may extend knowledge of past and present impacts that may provide additional insight and improve future scenarios. We collected daily mean temperatures and daily all-cause mortality for the period 1901-2013 for Stockholm County, Sweden, and calculated the total attributable fraction of mortality due to non-optimal temperatures and quantified the contribution of cold and heat. Total mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures varied between periods and cold consistently had a larger impact on mortality than heat. Cold-related attributable fraction (AF) remained stable over time whereas heat-related AF decreased. AF on cold days remained stable over time, which may indicate that mortality during colder months may not decline as temperatures increase in the future. More research is needed to enhance estimates of burdens related to cold and heat in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Oudin Åström
- Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Umeå University, 90187, Umeå, Sweden.
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Chung Y, Yang D, Gasparrini A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Fook Sheng Ng C, Kim Y, Honda Y, Hashizume M. Changing Susceptibility to Non-Optimum Temperatures in Japan, 1972-2012: The Role of Climate, Demographic, and Socioeconomic Factors. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2018; 126:057002. [PMID: 29727132 PMCID: PMC6071988 DOI: 10.1289/ehp2546] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2017] [Revised: 03/29/2018] [Accepted: 03/29/2018] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies have shown that population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures has changed over time, but little is known about the related time-varying factors that underlie the changes. OBJECTIVE Our objective was to investigate the changing population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures in 47 prefectures of Japan over four decades from 1972 to 2012, addressing three aspects: minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and heat- and cold-related mortality risks. In addition, we aimed to examine how these aspects of susceptibility were associated with climate, demographic, and socioeconomic variables. METHODS We first used a two-stage time-series design with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the time-varying MMT, heat- and cold-related mortality risks. We then applied linear mixed effects models to investigate the association between each of the three time-varying aspects of susceptibility and various time-varying factors. RESULTS MMT increased from 23.2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 23, 23.6] to 28.7 (27.0, 29.7) °C. Heat-related mortality risk [relative risk (RR) for the 99th percentile of temperature vs. the MMT] decreased from 1.18 (1.15, 1.21) to 1.01 (0.98, 1.04). Cold-related mortality risk (RR for the first percentile vs. the MMT) generally decreased from 1.48 (1.41, 1.54) to 1.35 (1.32, 1.40), with the exception of a few eastern prefectures that showed increased risk. The changing patterns in all three aspects differed by region, sex, and causes of death. Higher mean temperature was associated (p<0.01) with lower heat risk, whereas higher humidity was associated with higher cold risk. A higher percentage of elderly people was associated with a higher cold risk, whereas higher economic strength of the prefecture was related to lower cold risk. CONCLUSIONS Population susceptibility to heat has decreased over the last four decades in Japan. Susceptibility to cold has decreased overall except for several eastern prefectures where it has either increased or remained unchanged. Certain climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors explored in the current study might underlie this changing susceptibility. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2546.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yeonseung Chung
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, South Korea
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Daewon Yang
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, South Korea
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environment and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environment and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Chris Fook Sheng Ng
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
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Brief Report: Investigating Uncertainty in the Minimum Mortality Temperature: Methods and Application to 52 Spanish Cities. Epidemiology 2018; 28:72-76. [PMID: 27748681 PMCID: PMC5380105 DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000000567] [Citation(s) in RCA: 61] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The minimum mortality temperature from J- or U-shaped curves varies across cities with different climates. This variation conveys information on adaptation, but ability to characterize is limited by the absence of a method to describe uncertainty in estimated minimum mortality temperatures. METHODS We propose an approximate parametric bootstrap estimator of confidence interval (CI) and standard error (SE) for the minimum mortality temperature from a temperature-mortality shape estimated by splines. RESULTS The coverage of the estimated CIs was close to nominal value (95%) in the datasets simulated, although SEs were slightly high. Applying the method to 52 Spanish provincial capital cities showed larger minimum mortality temperatures in hotter cities, rising almost exactly at the same rate as annual mean temperature. CONCLUSIONS The method proposed for computing CIs and SEs for minimums from spline curves allows comparing minimum mortality temperatures in different cities and investigating their associations with climate properly, allowing for estimation uncertainty.
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Cheng J, Xu Z, Bambrick H, Su H, Tong S, Hu W. The mortality burden of hourly temperature variability in five capital cities, Australia: Time-series and meta-regression analysis. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2017; 109:10-19. [PMID: 28923460 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2017.09.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2017] [Revised: 09/06/2017] [Accepted: 09/10/2017] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Unstable weather, such as intra- and inter-day temperature variability, can impair the health and shorten the survival time of population around the world. Climate change will cause Earth's surface temperature rise, but has unclear effects on temperature variability, making it urgent to understand the characteristics of the burden of temperature variability on mortality, regionally and nationally. OBJECTIVES This paper aims to quantify the mortality risk of exposure to short-term temperature variability, estimate the resulting death toll and explore how the strength of temperature variability effects will vary as a function of city-level characteristics. METHODS Ten-year (2000-2009) time-series data on temperature and mortality were collected for five largest Australia's cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide), collectively registering 708,751 deaths in different climates. Short-term temperature variability was captured and represented as the hourly temperature standard deviation within two days. Three-stage analyses were used to assess the burden of temperature variability on mortality. First, we modelled temperature variability-mortality relation and estimated the relative risk of death for each city, using a time-series quasi-Poisson regression model. Second, we used meta-analysis to pool the city-specific estimates, and meta-regression to explore if some city-level factors will modify the population vulnerability to temperature variability. Finally, we calculated the city-specific deaths attributable to temperature variability, and applied such estimates to the whole of Australia as a reflection of the nation-wide death burden associated with temperature variability. RESULTS We found evidence of significant associations between temperature variability and mortality in all cities assessed. Deaths associated with each 1°C rise in temperature variability elevated by 0.28% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05%, 0.52%) in Melbourne to 1.00% (95%CI: 0.52%, 1.48%) in Brisbane, with a pooled estimate of 0.51% (95%CI: 0.33%, 0.69%) for Australia. Subtropical and temperate regions showed no apparent difference in temperature variability impacts. Meta-regression analyses indicated that the mortality risk could be influenced by city-specific factors: latitude, mean temperature, population density and the prevalence of several chronic diseases. Taking account of contributions from the entire time-series, temperature variability was estimated to account for 0.99% to 3.24% of deaths across cities, with a nation-wide attributable fraction of 1.67% (9.59 deaths per 100, 000 population per year). CONCLUSIONS Hourly temperature variability may be an important risk factor of weather-related deaths and led to a sizeable mortality burden. This study underscores the need for developing specific and effective interventions in Australia to lessen the health consequences of temperature variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Cheng
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Hong Su
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Anhui, China
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia.
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Royé D. The effects of hot nights on mortality in Barcelona, Spain. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2017; 61:2127-2140. [PMID: 28852883 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-017-1416-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2017] [Revised: 07/14/2017] [Accepted: 07/20/2017] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Heat-related effects on mortality have been widely analyzed using maximum and minimum temperatures as exposure variables. Nevertheless, the main focus is usually on the former with the minimum temperature being limited in use as far as human health effects are concerned. Therefore, new thermal indices were used in this research to describe the duration of night hours with air temperatures higher than the 95% percentile of the minimum temperature (hot night hours) and intensity as the summation of these air temperatures in degrees (hot night degrees). An exposure-response relationship between mortality due to natural, respiratory, and cardiovascular causes and summer night temperatures was assessed using data from the Barcelona region between 2003 and 2013. The non-linear relationship between the exposure and response variables was modeled using a distributed lag non-linear model. The estimated associations for both exposure variables and mortality shows a relationship with high and medium values that persist significantly up to a lag of 1-2 days. In mortality due to natural causes, an increase of 1.1% per 10% (CI95% 0.6-1.5) for hot night hours and 5.8% per each 10° (CI95% 3.5-8.2%) for hot night degrees is observed. The effects of hot night hours reach their maximum with 100% and lead to an increase by 9.2% (CI95% 5.3-13.1%). The hourly description of night heat effects reduced to a single indicator in duration and intensity is a new approach and shows a different perspective and significant heat-related effects on human health.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Royé
- GeoBioMet, Department of Geography, Urbanism and Spatial Planning, University of Cantabria, Avda. los Castros, 39005, Santander, Spain.
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, La Coruña, Spain.
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Abstract
This study assesses two alternative approaches for investigating linear and nonlinear lagged associations in environmental time series data, comparing through simulations simple methods based on moving average summaries with more flexible distributed lag linear and nonlinear models. Results indicate that the latter provide estimates with no or low bias and close-to-nominal confidence intervals, even for long-lagged associations and in the presence of strong seasonal trends. Moving average models represent a viable alternative only in the presence of relatively short lag periods, and when the lag interval is correctly specified. In contrast, the use of moving averages to roughly approximate long and complex lag patterns, or the specification of an interval different than the actual lag period, can result in substantial biases. More flexible approaches based on distributed lag linear or nonlinear models provide noteworthy advantages, in particular when complex lagged associations are assumed.
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Todd N, Le Fur S, Bougnères P, Valleron AJ. Impact of social inequalities at birth on the longevity of children born 1914-1916: A cohort study. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0185848. [PMID: 29036185 PMCID: PMC5643053 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0185848] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2017] [Accepted: 09/20/2017] [Indexed: 01/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Testing whether familial socioeconomic status (SES) in childhood is a predictor of mortality has rarely been done on historical cohorts. METHODS The birth certificates of 4,805 individuals born 1914-1916 in 16 districts of the Paris region were retrieved. The handwritten information provided the occupation of parents, the legitimacy status, life events (e.g. marriage, divorce), and the precise date of death when after 1945 (i.e. age 31 years (y) in the cohort). We used the median age at death (MAD) as a global measure of mortality, then studied separately survival to and after 31 y. Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and mixed effect Cox models were used. RESULTS MAD showed large variations according to paternal occupation. The lowest MAD in both sexes was that of workers' children: it was 56.3 y (95% CI: [48.6-62.7]) in men and 67.4 y (95% CI: [60.8-72.7]) in women, respectively (95% CI: 13.4 y [5.7-21.3]) and 12.3 y (95% CI: [4.0-19.2]) below the highest MAD attained. MAD experienced by illegitimate children was 18.9 y (95% CI: [13.3-32.3]) shorter than of legitimate children. The multivariate analysis revealed that in both sexes survival to age 31 y was predicted independently by legitimacy and paternal occupation. Paternal occupation was found significantly associated with mortality after age 31 y in females only: accordingly difference in life expectancy at age 31 y was 4.4 y (95% CI: [1.2-7.6]) between upper class and workers' daughters. CONCLUSIONS Paternal occupation and legitimacy status were strong predictors of offspring longevity in this one-century historical cohort born during World War One.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Pierre Bougnères
- INSERM U1169, Le Kremlin-Bicêtre, France
- Médecine des Adolescents, Hôpital Bicêtre, Paris Sud University, Le Kremlin-Bicêtre, France
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