Effect of 1918 PB1-F2 expression on influenza A virus infection kinetics

Mammalian adaptation risk in HPAI H5N8: a comprehensive model bridging experimental data with mathematical insights

Understanding the mammalian pathogenesis and interspecies transmission of HPAI H5N8 virus hinges on mapping its adaptive markers. We used deep sequencing to track these markers over five passages in murine lung tissue. Subsequently, we evaluated the growth, selection, and RNA load of eight recombinant viruses with mammalian adaptive markers. By leveraging an integrated non-linear regression model, we quantitatively determined the influence of these markers on growth, adaptation, and RNA expression in mammalian hosts. Furthermore, our findings revealed that the interplay of these markers can lead to synergistic, additive, or antagonistic effects when combined. The elucidation distance method then transformed these results into distinct values, facilitating the derivation of a risk score for each marker. In vivo tests affirmed the accuracy of scores. As more mutations were incorporated, the overall risk score of virus heightened, and the optimal interplay between markers became essential for risk augmentation. Our study provides a robust model to assess risk from adaptive markers of HPAI H5N8, guiding strategies against future influenza threats.

Infection dynamics of subtype H9N2 low pathogenic avian influenza a virus in turkeys

While mammals can be infected by influenza A virus either sporadically or with well adapted lineages, aquatic birds are the natural reservoir of the pathogen. So far most of the knowledge on influenza virus dynamics was however gained on mammalian models. In this study, we infected turkeys using a low pathogenic avian influenza virus and determined the infection dynamics with a target-cell limited model. Results showed that turkeys had a different set of infection characteristics, compared with humans and ponies. The viral clearance rates were similar between turkeys and ponies but higher than that in humans. The cell death rates and cell to cell transmission rates were similar between turkeys and humans but higher than those in ponies. Overall, this study indicated the variations of within-host dynamics of influenza infection in avian, humans, and other mammalian systems.

Mathematical Modeling of the Lethal Synergism of Coinfecting Pathogens in Respiratory Viral Infections: A Review

Influenza A virus (IAV) infections represent a substantial global health challenge and are often accompanied by coinfections involving secondary viruses or bacteria, resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. The clinical impact of coinfections remains poorly understood, with conflicting findings regarding fatality. Isolating the impact of each pathogen and mechanisms of pathogen synergy during coinfections is challenging and further complicated by host and pathogen variability and experimental conditions. Factors such as cytokine dysregulation, immune cell function alterations, mucociliary dysfunction, and changes to the respiratory tract epithelium have been identified as contributors to increased lethality. The relative significance of these factors depends on variables such as pathogen types, infection timing, sequence, and inoculum size. Mathematical biological modeling can play a pivotal role in shedding light on the mechanisms of coinfections. Mathematical modeling enables the quantification of aspects of the intra-host immune response that are difficult to assess experimentally. In this narrative review, we highlight important mechanisms of IAV coinfection with bacterial and viral pathogens and survey mathematical models of coinfection and the insights gained from them. We discuss current challenges and limitations facing coinfection modeling, as well as current trends and future directions toward a complete understanding of coinfection using mathematical modeling and computer simulation.

Topological data analysis of antibody dynamics of severe and non-severe patients with COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic is a significant public health threat with unanswered questions regarding the immune system's role in the disease's severity level. Here, based on antibody kinetic data of severe and non-severe COVID-19 patients, topological data analysis (TDA) highlights that severity is not binary. However, there are differences in the shape of antibody responses that further classify COVID-19 patients into non-severe, severe, and intermediate cases of severity. Based on the results of TDA, different mathematical models were developed to represent the dynamics between the different severity groups. The best model was the one with the lowest average value of the Akaike Information Criterion for all groups of patients. Our results suggest that different immune mechanisms drive differences between the severity groups. Further inclusion of different longitudinal data sets will be central for a holistic way of tackling COVID-19.

Dissecting Phenotype from Genotype with Clinical Isolates of SARS-CoV-2 First Wave Variants

The emergence and availability of closely related clinical isolates of SARS-CoV-2 offers a unique opportunity to identify novel nonsynonymous mutations that may impact phenotype. Global sequencing efforts show that SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged and then been replaced since the beginning of the pandemic, yet we have limited information regarding the breadth of variant-specific host responses. Using primary cell cultures and the K18-hACE2 mouse, we investigated the replication, innate immune response, and pathology of closely related, clinical variants circulating during the first wave of the pandemic. Mathematical modeling of the lung viral replication of four clinical isolates showed a dichotomy between two B.1. isolates with significantly faster and slower infected cell clearance rates, respectively. While isolates induced several common immune host responses to infection, one B.1 isolate was unique in the promotion of eosinophil-associated proteins IL-5 and CCL11. Moreover, its mortality rate was significantly slower. Lung microscopic histopathology suggested further phenotypic divergence among the five isolates showing three distinct sets of phenotypes: (i) consolidation, alveolar hemorrhage, and inflammation, (ii) interstitial inflammation/septal thickening and peribronchiolar/perivascular lymphoid cells, and (iii) consolidation, alveolar involvement, and endothelial hypertrophy/margination. Together these findings show divergence in the phenotypic outcomes of these clinical isolates and reveal the potential importance of nonsynonymous mutations in nsp2 and ORF8.

A Novel Mathematical Model That Predicts the Protection Time of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies

Infectious diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 pose a considerable threat to public health. Constructing a reliable mathematical model helps us quantitatively explain the kinetic characteristics of antibody-virus interactions. A novel and robust model is developed to integrate antibody dynamics with virus dynamics based on a comprehensive understanding of immunology principles. This model explicitly formulizes the pernicious effect of the antibody, together with a positive feedback stimulation of the virus-antibody complex on the antibody regeneration. Besides providing quantitative insights into antibody and virus dynamics, it demonstrates good adaptivity in recapturing the virus-antibody interaction. It is proposed that the environmental antigenic substances help maintain the memory cell level and the corresponding neutralizing antibodies secreted by those memory cells. A broader application is also visualized in predicting the antibody protection time caused by a natural infection. Suitable binding antibodies and the presence of massive environmental antigenic substances would prolong the protection time against breakthrough infection. The model also displays excellent fitness and provides good explanations for antibody selection, antibody interference, and self-reinfection. It helps elucidate how our immune system efficiently develops neutralizing antibodies with good binding kinetics. It provides a reasonable explanation for the lower SARS-CoV-2 mortality in the population that was vaccinated with other vaccines. It is inferred that the best strategy for prolonging the vaccine protection time is not repeated inoculation but a directed induction of fast-binding antibodies. Eventually, this model will inform the future construction of an optimal mathematical model and help us fight against those infectious diseases.

Enhanced viral infectivity and reduced interferon production are associated with high pathogenicity for influenza viruses

Epidemiological and clinical evidence indicates that humans infected with the 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus and highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses often displayed severe lung pathology. High viral load and extensive infiltration of macrophages are the hallmarks of highly pathogenic (HP) influenza viral infections. However, it remains unclear what biological mechanisms primarily determine the observed difference in the kinetics of viral load and macrophages between HP and low pathogenic (LP) viral infections, and how the mechanistic differences are associated with viral pathogenicity. In this study, we develop a mathematical model of viral dynamics that includes the dynamics of different macrophage populations and interferon. We fit the model to in vivo kinetic data of viral load and macrophage level from BALB/c mice infected with an HP or LP strain of H1N1/H5N1 virus to estimate model parameters using Bayesian inference. Our primary finding is that HP viruses have a higher viral infection rate, a lower interferon production rate and a lower macrophage recruitment rate compared to LP viruses, which are strongly associated with more severe tissue damage (quantified by a higher percentage of epithelial cell loss). We also quantify the relative contribution of macrophages to viral clearance and find that macrophages do not play a dominant role in the direct clearance of free viruses although their role in mediating immune responses such as interferon production is crucial. Our work provides new insight into the mechanisms that convey the observed difference in viral and macrophage kinetics between HP and LP infections and establishes an improved model-fitting framework to enhance the analysis of new data on viral pathogenicity.

PB1F2 from Influenza A Virus Regulates the Interaction between Cytochrome C and Cardiolipin

PB1F2 is a membrane associated protein encoded by the influenza virus gene in the host. Similar to endogenous pro-apoptotic proteins, it acts on the mitochondria of the host immune cells, inducing apoptosis of the cells. The PB1F2 protein has been demonstrated to facilitate the release of cytochrome c in addition to impairing the integrity of the inner mitochondrial membrane. This investigation focused on how the protein PB1F2 interacted with cardiolipin and cytochrome c. The regulation of PB1F2 on the binding of cytochrome c to cardiolipin in two kinds of in vitro membrane mimics was investigated by biophysical techniques. PB1F2 aids in the dissociation of cytochrome c-cardiolipin complexes in liposomes and nanodiscs. The results provide novel explanations and evidence for how PB1F2 functions as a viral virulence factor by inducing immune cell death.

Modeling within-host and aerosol dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: The relationship with infectiousness

The relationship between transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the amount of virus present in the proximity of a susceptible host is not understood. Here, we developed a within-host and aerosol mathematical model and used it to determine the relationship between viral kinetics in the upper respiratory track, viral kinetics in the aerosols, and new transmissions in golden hamsters challenged with SARS-CoV-2. We determined that infectious virus shedding early in infection correlates with transmission events, shedding of infectious virus diminishes late in the infection, and high viral RNA levels late in the infection are a poor indicator of transmission. We further showed that viral infectiousness increases in a density dependent manner with viral RNA and that their relative ratio is time-dependent. Such information is useful for designing interventions.

Quantifying the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in upper respiratory tract and in aerosols is key to understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission and evaluating intervention strategies. Of particular interest is the link between the viral RNA measured by PCR and a subject’s infectiousness. Here, we developed a mechanistic model of viral transmission in golden hamsters and used data in upper respiratory tract and aerosols to evaluate key within-host and environment based viral parameters. The significance of our research is in identifying the timing and duration of viral shedding, how long it stays infectious, and the link between infectious virus and total viral RNA. Such knowledge enhances our understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission window.

The Contribution of Viral Proteins to the Synergy of Influenza and Bacterial Co-Infection

A severe course of acute respiratory disease caused by influenza A virus (IAV) infection is often linked with subsequent bacterial superinfection, which is difficult to cure. Thus, synergistic influenza-bacterial co-infection represents a serious medical problem. The pathogenic changes in the infected host are accelerated as a consequence of IAV infection, reflecting its impact on the host immune response. IAV infection triggers a complex process linked with the blocking of innate and adaptive immune mechanisms required for effective antiviral defense. Such disbalance of the immune system allows for easier initiation of bacterial superinfection. Therefore, many new studies have emerged that aim to explain why viral-bacterial co-infection can lead to severe respiratory disease with possible fatal outcomes. In this review, we discuss the key role of several IAV proteins-namely, PB1-F2, hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA), and NS1-known to play a role in modulating the immune defense of the host, which consequently escalates the development of secondary bacterial infection, most often caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae. Understanding the mechanisms leading to pathological disorders caused by bacterial superinfection after the previous viral infection is important for the development of more effective means of prevention; for example, by vaccination or through therapy using antiviral drugs targeted at critical viral proteins.

Quantifying dose-, strain-, and tissue-specific kinetics of parainfluenza virus infection

Human parainfluenza viruses (HPIVs) are a leading cause of acute respiratory infection hospitalization in children, yet little is known about how dose, strain, tissue tropism, and individual heterogeneity affects the processes driving growth and clearance kinetics. Longitudinal measurements are possible by using reporter Sendai viruses, the murine counterpart of HPIV 1, that express luciferase, where the insertion location yields a wild-type (rSeV-luc(M-F*)) or attenuated (rSeV-luc(P-M)) phenotype. Bioluminescence from individual animals suggests that there is a rapid increase in expression followed by a peak, biphasic clearance, and resolution. However, these kinetics vary between individuals and with dose, strain, and whether the infection was initiated in the upper and/or lower respiratory tract. To quantify the differences, we translated the bioluminescence measurements from the nasopharynx, trachea, and lung into viral loads and used a mathematical model together a nonlinear mixed effects approach to define the mechanisms distinguishing each scenario. The results confirmed a higher rate of virus production with the rSeV-luc(M-F*) virus compared to its attenuated counterpart, and suggested that low doses result in disproportionately fewer infected cells. The analyses indicated faster infectivity and infected cell clearance rates in the lung and that higher viral doses, and concomitantly higher infected cell numbers, resulted in more rapid clearance. This parameter was also highly variable amongst individuals, which was particularly evident during infection in the lung. These critical differences provide important insight into distinct HPIV dynamics, and show how bioluminescence data can be combined with quantitative analyses to dissect host-, virus-, and dose-dependent effects.

Human parainfluenza viruses (HPIVs) cause acute respiratory infections and can lead to the hospitalization of children. HPIV infection severity may vary due to dose, strain, patient, and whether the infection initiates within the upper or lower respiratory tract. There is a need to determine how the rates of virus spread and clearance change in different infection scenarios in order to better understand varying clinical manifestations. The significance of our research is in identifying the dominant mechanisms driving strain-, dose-, and tissue-specific HPIV infection kinetics, and in pairing bioluminescence data with quantitative analyses to determine how the same virus can yield patient-specific outcomes. This work enhances our understanding of HPIV infection and broadens our knowledge viral dynamics in the upper and lower respiratory tracts.

Dynamically linking influenza virus infection kinetics, lung injury, inflammation, and disease severity

Influenza viruses cause a significant amount of morbidity and mortality. Understanding host immune control efficacy and how different factors influence lung injury and disease severity are critical. We established and validated dynamical connections between viral loads, infected cells, CD8⁺ T cells, lung injury, inflammation, and disease severity using an integrative mathematical model-experiment exchange. Our results showed that the dynamics of inflammation and virus-inflicted lung injury are distinct and nonlinearly related to disease severity, and that these two pathologic measurements can be independently predicted using the model-derived infected cell dynamics. Our findings further indicated that the relative CD8⁺ T cell dynamics paralleled the percent of the lung that had resolved with the rate of CD8⁺ T cell-mediated clearance rapidly accelerating by over 48,000 times in 2 days. This complimented our analyses showing a negative correlation between the efficacy of innate and adaptive immune-mediated infected cell clearance, and that infection duration was driven by CD8⁺ T cell magnitude rather than efficacy and could be significantly prolonged if the ratio of CD8⁺ T cells to infected cells was sufficiently low. These links between important pathogen kinetics and host pathology enhance our ability to forecast disease progression, potential complications, and therapeutic efficacy.

Mechanistic basis of post-treatment control of SIV after anti-α4β7 antibody therapy

Treating macaques with an anti-α4β7 antibody under the umbrella of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) during early SIV infection can lead to viral remission, with viral loads maintained at < 50 SIV RNA copies/ml after removal of all treatment in a subset of animals. Depletion of CD8⁺ lymphocytes in controllers resulted in transient recrudescence of viremia, suggesting that the combination of cART and anti-α4β7 antibody treatment led to a state where ongoing immune responses kept the virus undetectable in the absence of treatment. A previous mathematical model of HIV infection and cART incorporates immune effector cell responses and exhibits the property of two different viral load set-points. While the lower set-point could correspond to the attainment of long-term viral remission, attaining the higher set-point may be the result of viral rebound. Here we expand that model to include possible mechanisms of action of an anti-α4β7 antibody operating in these treated animals. We show that the model can fit the longitudinal viral load data from both IgG control and anti-α4β7 antibody treated macaques, suggesting explanations for the viral control associated with cART and an anti-α4β7 antibody treatment. This effective perturbation to the virus-host interaction can also explain observations in other nonhuman primate experiments in which cART and immunotherapy have led to post-treatment control or resetting of the viral load set-point. Interestingly, because the viral kinetics in the various treated animals differed—some animals exhibited large fluctuations in viral load after cART cessation—the model suggests that anti-α4β7 treatment could act by different primary mechanisms in different animals and still lead to post-treatment viral control. This outcome is nonetheless in accordance with a model with two stable viral load set-points, in which therapy can perturb the system from one set-point to a lower one through different biological mechanisms.

Some macaques treated with an anti-α4β7 monoclonal antibody along with antiretroviral therapy during the early stages of simian immunodeficiency virus infection had their viral load become undetectable (below 50 SIV RNA copies/ml) after all treatment was stopped, whereas animals not given the antibody all had their viral loads rebound to high levels. Using a mathematical model, we examined four potential ways in which the antibody could have altered the balance between viral growth and immune control to maintain an undetectable viral load. We show that a shift to controlled infection can occur through multiple biologically reasonable mechanisms of action of the anti-α4β7 antibody.

Compartmental Model Suggests Importance of Innate Immune Response to COVID-19 Infection in Rhesus Macaques

The pandemic outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has quickly spread worldwide, creating a serious health crisis. The virus is primarily associated with flu-like symptoms but can also lead to severe pathologies and death. We here present an ordinary differential equation model of the intrahost immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection, fitted to experimental data gleaned from rhesus macaques. The model is calibrated to data from a nonlethal infection, but the model can replicate behavior from various lethal scenarios as well. We evaluate the sensitivity of the model to biologically relevant parameters governing the strength and efficacy of the immune response. We also simulate the effect of both anti-inflammatory and antiviral drugs on the host immune response and demonstrate the ability of the model to lessen the severity of a formerly lethal infection with the addition of the appropriately calibrated drug. Our model emphasizes the importance of tight control of the innate immune response for host survival and viral clearance.

Modelling the Effect of MUC1 on Influenza Virus Infection Kinetics and Macrophage Dynamics

MUC1 belongs to the family of cell surface (cs-) mucins. Experimental evidence indicates that its presence reduces in vivo influenza viral infection severity. However, the mechanisms by which MUC1 influences viral dynamics and the host immune response are not yet well understood, limiting our ability to predict the efficacy of potential treatments that target MUC1. To address this limitation, we use available in vivo kinetic data for both virus and macrophage populations in wildtype and MUC1 knockout mice. We apply two mathematical models of within-host influenza dynamics to this data. The models differ in how they categorise the mechanisms of viral control. Both models provide evidence that MUC1 reduces the susceptibility of epithelial cells to influenza virus and regulates macrophage recruitment. Furthermore, we predict and compare some key infection-related quantities between the two mice groups. We find that MUC1 significantly reduces the basic reproduction number of viral replication as well as the number of cumulative macrophages but has little impact on the cumulative viral load. Our analyses suggest that the viral replication rate in the early stages of infection influences the kinetics of the host immune response, with consequences for infection outcomes, such as severity. We also show that MUC1 plays a strong anti-inflammatory role in the regulation of the host immune response. This study improves our understanding of the dynamic role of MUC1 against influenza infection and may support the development of novel antiviral treatments and immunomodulators that target MUC1.

Energy Requirements for Loss of Viral Infectivity

Outside the host, viruses will eventually lose their ability to infect cells due to conformational changes that occur to proteins on the viral capsid. In order to undergo a conformational change, these proteins require energy to activate the chemical reaction that leads to the conformational change. In this study, data from the literature is used to calculate the energy required for viral inactivation for a variety of different viruses by means of the Arrhenius equation. We find that some viruses (rhinovirus, poliovirus, human immunodeficiency virus, Alkhumra hemorrhagic fever virus, and hepatitis A virus) have high inactivation energies, indicative of breaking of a chemical double bond. We also find that several viruses (respiratory syncytial virus, poliovirus, and norovirus) have nonlinear Arrhenius plots, suggesting that there is more than a single pathway for inactivation of these viruses.

PARAMETER AND UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION FOR DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS USING SURROGATE STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

Inference on unknown quantities in dynamical systems via observational data is essential for providing meaningful insight, furnishing accurate predictions, enabling robust control, and establishing appropriate designs for future experiments. Merging mathematical theory with empirical measurements in a statistically coherent way is critical and challenges abound, e.g., ill-posedness of the parameter estimation problem, proper regularization and incorporation of prior knowledge, and computational limitations. To address these issues, we propose a new method for learning parameterized dynamical systems from data. We first customize and fit a surrogate stochastic process directly to observational data, front-loading with statistical learning to respect prior knowledge (e.g., smoothness), cope with challenging data features like heteroskedasticity, heavy tails, and censoring. Then, samples of the stochastic process are used as "surrogate data" and point estimates are computed via ordinary point estimation methods in a modular fashion. Attractive features of this two-step approach include modularity and trivial parallelizability. We demonstrate its advantages on a predator-prey simulation study and on a real-world application involving within-host influenza virus infection data paired with a viral kinetic model, with comparisons to a more conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based Bayesian approach.

Importance of 1918 virus reconstruction to current assessments of pandemic risk

Reconstruction of the 1918 influenza virus has facilitated considerable advancements in our understanding of this extraordinary pandemic virus. However, the benefits of virus reconstruction are not limited to this one strain. Here, we provide an overview of laboratory studies which have evaluated the reconstructed 1918 virus, and highlight key discoveries about determinants of virulence and transmissibility associated with this virus in mammals. We further discuss recent and current pandemic threats from avian and swine reservoirs, and provide specific examples of how reconstruction of the 1918 pandemic virus has improved our ability to contextualize research employing novel and emerging strains. As influenza viruses continue to evolve and pose a threat to human health, studying past pandemic viruses is key to future preparedness efforts.

Dissecting host cell death programs in the pathogenesis of influenza

Influenza A virus (IAV) is a pulmonary pathogen, responsible for significant yearly morbidity and mortality. Due to the absence of highly effective antiviral therapies and vaccine, as well as the constant threat of an emerging pandemic strain, there is considerable need to better understand the host-pathogen interactions and the factors that dictate a protective versus detrimental immune response to IAV. Even though evidence of IAV-induced cell death in human pulmonary epithelial and immune cells has been observed for almost a century, very little is known about the consequences of cell death on viral pathogenesis. Recent study indicates that both the type of cell death program and its kinetics have major implications on host defense and survival. In this review, we discuss advances in our understanding of cell death programs during influenza virus infection, in hopes of fostering new areas of investigation for targeted clinical intervention.

Distinct antiviral signatures revealed by the magnitude and round of influenza virus replication in vivo

Influenza virus has a broad cellular tropism in the respiratory tract. Infected epithelial cells sense the infection and initiate an antiviral response. To define the antiviral response at the earliest stages of infection we used a series of single-cycle reporter viruses. These viral probes demonstrated cells in vivo harbor a range in magnitude of virus replication. Transcriptional profiling of cells supporting different levels of replication revealed tiers of IFN-stimulated gene expression. Uninfected cells and cells with blunted replication expressed a distinct and potentially protective antiviral signature, while cells with high replication expressed a unique reserve set of antiviral genes. Finally, we used these single-cycle reporter viruses to determine the antiviral landscape during virus spread, which unveiled disparate protection of epithelial cell subsets mediated by IFN in vivo. Together these results highlight the complexity of virus-host interactions within the infected lung and suggest that magnitude and round of replication tune the antiviral response.

Host-pathogen kinetics during influenza infection and coinfection: insights from predictive modeling

Influenza virus infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. This is due in part to the continual emergence of new viral variants and to synergistic interactions with other viruses and bacteria. There is a lack of understanding about how host responses work to control the infection and how other pathogens capitalize on the altered immune state. The complexity of multi-pathogen infections makes dissecting contributing mechanisms, which may be non-linear and occur on different time scales, challenging. Fortunately, mathematical models have been able to uncover infection control mechanisms, establish regulatory feedbacks, connect mechanisms across time scales, and determine the processes that dictate different disease outcomes. These models have tested existing hypotheses and generated new hypotheses, some of which have been subsequently tested and validated in the laboratory. They have been particularly a key in studying influenza-bacteria coinfections and will be undoubtedly be useful in examining the interplay between influenza virus and other viruses. Here, I review recent advances in modeling influenza-related infections, the novel biological insight that has been gained through modeling, the importance of model-driven experimental design, and future directions of the field.

Influenza Virus Infection Model With Density Dependence Supports Biphasic Viral Decay

Mathematical models that describe infection kinetics help elucidate the time scales, effectiveness, and mechanisms underlying viral growth and infection resolution. For influenza A virus (IAV) infections, the standard viral kinetic model has been used to investigate the effect of different IAV proteins, immune mechanisms, antiviral actions, and bacterial coinfection, among others. We sought to further define the kinetics of IAV infections by infecting mice with influenza A/PR8 and measuring viral loads with high frequency and precision over the course of infection. The data highlighted dynamics that were not previously noted, including viral titers that remain elevated for several days during mid-infection and a sharp 4–5 log₁₀ decline in virus within 1 day as the infection resolves. The standard viral kinetic model, which has been widely used within the field, could not capture these dynamics. Thus, we developed a new model that could simultaneously quantify the different phases of viral growth and decay with high accuracy. The model suggests that the slow and fast phases of virus decay are due to the infected cell clearance rate changing as the density of infected cells changes. To characterize this model, we fit the model to the viral load data, examined the parameter behavior, and connected the results and parameters to linear regression estimates. The resulting parameters and model dynamics revealed that the rate of viral clearance during resolution occurs 25 times faster than the clearance during mid-infection and that small decreases to this rate can significantly prolong the infection. This likely reflects the high efficiency of the adaptive immune response. The new model provides a well-characterized representation of IAV infection dynamics, is useful for analyzing and interpreting viral load dynamics in the absence of immunological data, and gives further insight into the regulation of viral control.

Understanding the within-host dynamics of influenza A virus: from theory to clinical implications

Mathematical models have provided important insights into acute viral dynamics within individual patients. In this paper, we study the simplest target cell-limited models to investigate the within-host dynamics of influenza A virus infection in humans. Despite the biological simplicity of the models, we show how these can be used to understand the severity of the infection and the key attributes of possible immunotherapy and antiviral drugs for the treatment of infection at different times post infection. Through an analytic approach, we derive and estimate simple summary biological quantities that can provide novel insights into the infection dynamics and the definition of clinical endpoints. We focus on nine quantities, including the area under the viral load curve, peak viral load, the time to peak viral load and the level of cell death due to infection. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we fitted the models to data collected from 12 untreated volunteers who participated in two clinical studies that tested the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir. Based on the results, we also discuss various difficulties in deriving precise estimates of the parameters, even in the very simple models considered, when experimental data are limited to viral load measures and/or there is a limited number of viral load measurements post infection.

In-host modeling

Understanding the mechanisms governing host-pathogen kinetics is important and can guide human interventions. In-host mathematical models, together with biological data, have been used in this endeavor. In this review, we present basic models used to describe acute and chronic pathogenic infections. We highlight the power of model predictions, the role of drug therapy, and advantage of considering the dynamics of immune responses. We also present the limitations of these models due in part to the trade-off between the complexity of the model and their predictive power, and the challenges a modeler faces in determining the appropriate formulation for a given problem.

Analysis of Practical Identifiability of a Viral Infection Model

Mathematical modelling approaches have granted a significant contribution to life sciences and beyond to understand experimental results. However, incomplete and inadequate assessments in parameter estimation practices hamper the parameter reliability, and consequently the insights that ultimately could arise from a mathematical model. To keep the diligent works in modelling biological systems from being mistrusted, potential sources of error must be acknowledged. Employing a popular mathematical model in viral infection research, existing means and practices in parameter estimation are exemplified. Numerical results show that poor experimental data is a main source that can lead to erroneous parameter estimates despite the use of innovative parameter estimation algorithms. Arbitrary choices of initial conditions as well as data asynchrony distort the parameter estimates but are often overlooked in modelling studies. This work stresses the existence of several sources of error buried in reports of modelling biological systems, voicing the need for assessing the sources of error, consolidating efforts in solving the immediate difficulties, and possibly reconsidering the use of mathematical modelling to quantify experimental data.

Hierarchical effects of pro-inflammatory cytokines on the post-influenza susceptibility to pneumococcal coinfection

In the course of influenza A virus (IAV) infections, a secondary bacterial infection frequently leads to serious respiratory conditions provoking high hospitalization and death tolls. Although abundant pro-inflammatory responses have been reported as key contributing factors for these severe dual infections, the relative contributions of cytokines remain largely unclear. In the current study, mathematical modelling based on murine experimental data dissects IFN-γ as a cytokine candidate responsible for impaired bacterial clearance, thereby promoting bacterial growth and systemic dissemination during acute IAV infection. We also found a time-dependent detrimental role of IL-6 in curtailing bacterial outgrowth which was not as distinct as for IFN-γ. Our numerical simulations suggested a detrimental effect of IFN-γ alone and in synergism with IL-6 but no conclusive pathogenic effect of IL-6 and TNF-α alone. This work provides a rationale to understand the potential impact of how to manipulate temporal immune components, facilitating the formulation of hypotheses about potential therapeutic strategies to treat coinfections.

Quantifying the therapeutic requirements and potential for combination therapy to prevent bacterial coinfection during influenza

Secondary bacterial infections (SBIs) exacerbate influenza-associated disease and mortality. Antimicrobial agents can reduce the severity of SBIs, but many have limited efficacy or cause adverse effects. Thus, new treatment strategies are needed. Kinetic models describing the infection process can help determine optimal therapeutic targets, the time scale on which a drug will be most effective, and how infection dynamics will change under therapy. To understand how different therapies perturb the dynamics of influenza infection and bacterial coinfection and to quantify the benefit of increasing a drug's efficacy or targeting a different infection process, I analyzed data from mice treated with an antiviral, an antibiotic, or an immune modulatory agent with kinetic models. The results suggest that antivirals targeting the viral life cycle are most efficacious in the first 2 days of infection, potentially because of an improved immune response, and that increasing the clearance of infected cells is important for treatment later in the infection. For a coinfection, immunotherapy could control low bacterial loads with as little as 20 % efficacy, but more effective drugs would be necessary for high bacterial loads. Antibiotics targeting bacterial replication and administered 10 h after infection would require 100 % efficacy, which could be reduced to 40 % with prophylaxis. Combining immunotherapy with antibiotics could substantially increase treatment success. Taken together, the results suggest when and why some therapies fail, determine the efficacy needed for successful treatment, identify potential immune effects, and show how the regulation of underlying mechanisms can be used to design new therapeutic strategies.

Models of Viral Population Dynamics

Models of viral population dynamics have contributed enormously to our understanding of the pathogenesis and transmission of several infectious diseases, the coevolutionary dynamics of viruses and their hosts, the mechanisms of action of drugs, and the effectiveness of interventions. In this chapter, we review major advances in the modeling of the population dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and briefly discuss adaptations to other viruses.

Estimating biologically relevant parameters under uncertainty for experimental within-host murine West Nile virus infection

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging pathogen that has decimated bird populations and caused severe outbreaks of viral encephalitis in humans. Currently, little is known about the within-host viral kinetics of WNV during infection. We developed mathematical models to describe viral replication, spread and host immune response in wild-type and immunocompromised mice. Our approach fits a target cell-limited model to viremia data from immunocompromised knockout mice and an adaptive immune response model to data from wild-type mice. Using this approach, we first estimate parameters governing viral production and viral spread in the host using simple models without immune responses. We then use these parameters in a more complex immune response model to characterize the dynamics of the humoral immune response. Despite substantial uncertainty in input parameters, our analysis generates relatively precise estimates of important viral characteristics that are composed of nonlinear combinations of model parameters: we estimate the mean within-host basic reproductive number,R0, to be 2.3 (95% of values in the range 1.7-2.9); the mean infectious virion burst size to be 2.9 plaque-forming units (95% of values in the range 1.7-4.7); and the average number of cells infected per infectious virion to be between 0.3 and 0.99. Our analysis gives mechanistic insights into the dynamics of WNV infection and produces estimates of viral characteristics that are difficult to measure experimentally. These models are a first step towards a quantitative understanding of the timing and effectiveness of the humoral immune response in reducing host viremia and consequently the epidemic spread of WNV.

The role of influenza in the epidemiology of pneumonia

Interactions arising from sequential viral and bacterial infections play important roles in the epidemiological outcome of many respiratory pathogens. Influenza virus has been implicated in the pathogenesis of several respiratory bacterial pathogens commonly associated with pneumonia. Though clinical evidence supporting this interaction is unambiguous, its population-level effects-magnitude, epidemiological impact and variation during pandemic and seasonal outbreaks-remain unclear. To address these unknowns, we used longitudinal influenza and pneumonia incidence data, at different spatial resolutions and across different epidemiological periods, to infer the nature, timing and the intensity of influenza-pneumonia interaction. We used a mechanistic transmission model within a likelihood-based inference framework to carry out formal hypothesis testing. Irrespective of the source of data examined, we found that influenza infection increases the risk of pneumonia by ~100-fold. We found no support for enhanced transmission or severity impact of the interaction. For model-validation, we challenged our fitted model to make out-of-sample pneumonia predictions during pandemic and non-pandemic periods. The consistency in our inference tests carried out on several distinct datasets, and the predictive skill of our model increase confidence in our overall conclusion that influenza infection substantially enhances the risk of pneumonia, though only for a short period.

Modeling Influenza Virus Infection: A Roadmap for Influenza Research

Influenza A virus (IAV) infection represents a global threat causing seasonal outbreaks and pandemics. Additionally, secondary bacterial infections, caused mainly by Streptococcus pneumoniae, are one of the main complications and responsible for the enhanced morbidity and mortality associated with IAV infections. In spite of the significant advances in our knowledge of IAV infections, holistic comprehension of the interplay between IAV and the host immune response (IR) remains largely fragmented. During the last decade, mathematical modeling has been instrumental to explain and quantify IAV dynamics. In this paper, we review not only the state of the art of mathematical models of IAV infection but also the methodologies exploited for parameter estimation. We focus on the adaptive IR control of IAV infection and the possible mechanisms that could promote a secondary bacterial coinfection. To exemplify IAV dynamics and identifiability issues, a mathematical model to explain the interactions between adaptive IR and IAV infection is considered. Furthermore, in this paper we propose a roadmap for future influenza research. The development of a mathematical modeling framework with a secondary bacterial coinfection, immunosenescence, host genetic factors and responsiveness to vaccination will be pivotal to advance IAV infection understanding and treatment optimization.

Ebola virus dynamics in mice treated with favipiravir

The polymerase inhibitor favipiravir is a candidate for the treatment of Ebola virus disease. Here, we designed a mathematical model to characterize the viral dynamics in 20 mice experimentally infected with Ebola virus, which were either left untreated or treated with favipiravir at 6 or 8days post infection. This approach provided estimates of kinetic parameters of Ebola virus reproduction, such as the half-life of productively infected cells, of about 6h, and the basic reproductive number which indicates that virus produced by a single infected cell productively infects about 9 new cells. Furthermore, the model predicted that favipiravir efficiently blocks viral production, reaching an antiviral effectiveness of 95% and 99.6% at 2 and 6days after initiation of treatment, respectively. The model could be particularly helpful to guide future studies evaluating favipiravir in larger animals.

Quantifying relative within-host replication fitness in influenza virus competition experiments

Through accumulation of genetic mutations in the neuraminidase gene, the influenza virus can become resistant to antiviral drugs such as oseltamivir. Quantifying the fitness of emergent drug-resistant influenza viruses, relative to contemporary circulating viruses, provides valuable information to complement existing efforts in the surveillance of drug-resistance. We have previously developed a co-infection based method for the assessment of the relative in vivo fitness of two competing viruses. We have also introduced a model of within-host co-infection dynamics that enables relative within-host fitness to be quantified in these competitive-mixtures experiments. The model assumed that fitness differences between co-infecting strains were mediated by strain-dependent viral production rates from infected epithelial cells. Here we extend the model to enable a more complete exploration of biological processes that may differ between virus pairs and hence generate fitness differences. We use the extended model to re-analyse data from competitive-mixtures experiments that investigated the fitness of oseltamivir-resistant (OR) H1N1 pandemic 2009 ("H1N1pdm09") viruses that emerged during a community outbreak in Australia in 2011. Results are consistent with those of our previous analysis, suggesting that the within-host replication fitness of these OR viruses is not compromised relative to that of related oseltamivir-susceptible (OS) strains, and that potentially permissive mutations in the neuraminidase gene (V241I and N369K) significantly enhance the fitness of H1N1pdm09 OR viruses. These results are consistent regardless of the hypothesised biological cause of fitness difference.

Non-avian animal reservoirs present a source of influenza A PB1-F2 proteins with novel virulence-enhancing markers

PB1-F2 protein, expressed from an alternative reading frame of most influenza A virus (IAV) PB1 segments, may possess specific residues associated with enhanced inflammation (L62, R75, R79, and L82) and cytotoxicity (I68, L69, and V70). These residues were shown to increase the pathogenicity of primary viral and secondary bacterial infections in a mouse model. In contrast to human seasonal influenza strains, virulence-associated residues are present in PB1-F2 proteins from pandemic H1N1 1918, H2N2 1957, and H3N2 1968, and highly pathogenic H5N1 strains, suggesting their contribution to viruses' pathogenic phenotypes. Non-human influenza strains may act as donors of virulent PB1-F2 proteins. Previously, avian influenza strains were identified as a potential source of inflammatory, but not cytotoxic, PB1-F2 residues. Here, we analyze the frequency of virulence-associated residues in PB1-F2 sequences from IAVs circulating in mammalian species in close contact with humans: pigs, horses, and dogs. All four inflammatory residues were found in PB1-F2 proteins from these viruses. Among cytotoxic residues, I68 was the most common and was especially prevalent in equine and canine IAVs. Historically, PB1-F2 from equine (about 75%) and canine (about 20%) IAVs were most likely to have combinations of the highest numbers of residues associated with inflammation and cytotoxicity, compared to about 7% of swine IAVs. Our analyses show that, in addition to birds, pigs, horses, and dogs are potentially important sources of pathogenic PB1-F2 variants. There is a need for surveillance of IAVs with genetic markers of virulence that may be emerging from these reservoirs in order to improve pandemic preparedness and response.

Modeling the dynamics and migratory pathways of virus-specific antibody-secreting cell populations in primary influenza infection

The B cell response to influenza infection of the respiratory tract contributes to viral clearance and establishes profound resistance to reinfection by related viruses. Numerous studies have measured virus-specific antibody-secreting cell (ASC) frequencies in different anatomical compartments after influenza infection and provided a general picture of the kinetics of ASC formation and dispersion. However, the dynamics of ASC populations are difficult to determine experimentally and have received little attention. Here, we applied mathematical modeling to investigate the dynamics of ASC growth, death, and migration over the 2-week period following primary influenza infection in mice. Experimental data for model fitting came from high frequency measurements of virus-specific IgM, IgG, and IgA ASCs in the mediastinal lymph node (MLN), spleen, and lung. Model construction was based on a set of assumptions about ASC gain and loss from the sampled sites, and also on the directionality of ASC trafficking pathways. Most notably, modeling results suggest that differences in ASC fate and trafficking patterns reflect the site of formation and the expressed antibody class. Essentially all early IgA ASCs in the MLN migrated to spleen or lung, whereas cell death was likely the major reason for IgM and IgG ASC loss from the MLN. In contrast, the spleen contributed most of the IgM and IgG ASCs that migrated to the lung, but essentially none of the IgA ASCs. This finding points to a critical role for regional lymph nodes such as the MLN in the rapid generation of IgA ASCs that seed the lung. Results for the MLN also suggest that ASC death is a significant early feature of the B cell response. Overall, our analysis is consistent with accepted concepts in many regards, but it also indicates novel features of the B cell response to influenza that warrant further investigation.

Secondary bacterial infections in influenza virus infection pathogenesis

Influenza is often complicated by bacterial pathogens that colonize the nasopharynx and invade the middle ear and/or lung epithelium. Incidence and pathogenicity of influenza-bacterial coinfections are multifactorial processes that involve various pathogenic virulence factors and host responses with distinct site- and strain-specific differences. Animal models and kinetic models have improved our understanding of how influenza viruses interact with their bacterial co-pathogens and the accompanying immune responses. Data from these models indicate that considerable alterations in epithelial surfaces and aberrant immune responses lead to severe inflammation, a key driver of bacterial acquisition and infection severity following influenza. However, further experimental and analytical studies are essential to determining the full mechanistic spectrum of different viral and bacterial strains and species and to finding new ways to prevent and treat influenza-associated bacterial coinfections. Here, we review recent advances regarding transmission and disease potential of influenza-associated bacterial infections and discuss the current gaps in knowledge.

Viral kinetic modeling: state of the art

Viral kinetic (VK) modeling has led to increased understanding of the within host dynamics of viral infections and the effects of therapy. Here we review recent developments in the modeling of viral infection kinetics with emphasis on two infectious diseases: hepatitis C and influenza. We review how VK modeling has evolved from simple models of viral infections treated with a drug or drug cocktail with an assumed constant effectiveness to models that incorporate drug pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, as well as phenomenological models that simply assume drugs have time varying-effectiveness. We also discuss multiscale models that include intracellular events in viral replication, models of drug-resistance, models that include innate and adaptive immune responses and models that incorporate cell-to-cell spread of infection. Overall, VK modeling has provided new insights into the understanding of the disease progression and the modes of action of several drugs. We expect that VK modeling will be increasingly used in the coming years to optimize drug regimens in order to improve therapeutic outcomes and treatment tolerability for infectious diseases.

Within-host influenza dynamics: a small-scale mathematical modeling approach

The emergence of new influenza viruses like the pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus in 2009 (A(H1N1)pdm09) with unpredictable difficulties in vaccine coverage and established antiviral treatment protocols emphasizes the need of new murine models to prove the activity of novel antiviral compounds in vivo. The aim of the present study was to develop a small-scale mathematical model based on easily attainable experimental data to explain differences in influenza kinetics induced by different virus strains in mice. To develop a three-dimensional ordinary differential equation model of influenza dynamics, the following variables were included: (i) viral pathogenicity (P), (ii) antiviral immune defense (D), and (iii) inflammation due to pro-inflammatory response (I). Influenza virus-induced symptoms (clinical score S) in mice provided the basis for calculations of P and I. Both, mono- and biphasic course of mild to severe influenza induced by three clinical A(H1N1)pdm09 strains and one European swine H1N2 virus were comparatively and quantitatively studied by fitting the mathematical model to the experimental data. The model hypothesizes reasons for mild and severe influenza with mono- as well as biphasic course of disease. According to modeling results, the second peak of the biphasic course of infection is caused by inflammation. The parameters (i) maximum primary pathogenicity, (ii) viral infection rate, and (iii) rate of activation of the immune system represent most important parameters that quantitatively characterize the different pattern of virus-specific influenza kinetics.

Effects of aging on influenza virus infection dynamics

The consequences of influenza virus infection are generally more severe in individuals over 65 years of age (the elderly). Immunosenescence enhances the susceptibility to viral infections and renders vaccination less effective. Understanding age-related changes in the immune system is crucial in order to design prophylactic and immunomodulatory strategies to reduce morbidity and mortality in the elderly. Here, we propose different mathematical models to provide a quantitative understanding of the immune strategies in the course of influenza virus infection using experimental data from young and aged mice. Simulation results suggested a central role of CD8(+) T cells for adequate viral clearance kinetics in young and aged mice. Adding the removal of infected cells by natural killer cells did not improve the model fit in either young or aged animals. We separately examined the infection-resistant state of cells promoted by the cytokines alpha/beta interferon (IFN-α/β), IFN-γ, and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α). The combination of activated CD8(+) T cells with any of the cytokines provided the best fits in young and aged animals. During the first 3 days after infection, the basic reproductive number for aged mice was 1.5-fold lower than that for young mice (P < 0.05).

IMPORTANCE

The fits of our models to the experimental data suggest that the increased levels of IFN-α/β, IFN-γ, and TNF-α (the "inflammaging" state) promote slower viral growth in aged mice, which consequently limits the stimulation of immune cells and contributes to the reported impaired responses in the elderly. A quantitative understanding of influenza virus pathogenesis and its shift in the elderly is the key contribution of this work.

How sticky should a virus be? The impact of virus binding and release on transmission fitness using influenza as an example

Budding viruses face a trade-off: virions need to efficiently attach to and enter uninfected cells while newly generated virions need to efficiently detach from infected cells. The right balance between attachment and detachment-the right amount of stickiness-is needed for maximum fitness. Here, we design and analyse a mathematical model to study in detail the impact of attachment and detachment rates on virus fitness. We apply our model to influenza, where stickiness is determined by a balance of the haemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) proteins. We investigate how drugs, the adaptive immune response and vaccines impact influenza stickiness and fitness. Our model suggests that the location in the 'stickiness landscape' of the virus determines how well interventions such as drugs or vaccines are expected to work. We discuss why hypothetical NA enhancer drugs might occasionally perform better than the currently available NA inhibitors in reducing virus fitness. We show that an increased antibody or T-cell-mediated immune response leads to maximum fitness at higher stickiness. We further show that antibody-based vaccines targeting mainly HA or NA, which leads to a shift in stickiness, might reduce virus fitness above what can be achieved by the direct immunological action of the vaccine. Overall, our findings provide potentially useful conceptual insights for future vaccine and drug development and can be applied to other budding viruses beyond influenza.

Influenza A virus infections in swine: pathogenesis and diagnosis

Influenza has been recognized as a respiratory disease in swine since its first appearance concurrent with the 1918 "Spanish flu" human pandemic. All influenza viruses of significance in swine are type A, subtype H1N1, H1N2, or H3N2 viruses. Influenza viruses infect epithelial cells lining the surface of the respiratory tract, inducing prominent necrotizing bronchitis and bronchiolitis and variable interstitial pneumonia. Cell death is due to direct virus infection and to insult directed by leukocytes and cytokines of the innate immune system. The most virulent viruses consistently express the following characteristics of infection: (1) higher or more prolonged virus replication, (2) excessive cytokine induction, and (3) replication in the lower respiratory tract. Nearly all the viral proteins contribute to virulence. Pigs are susceptible to infection with both human and avian viruses, which often results in gene reassortment between these viruses and endemic swine viruses. The receptors on the epithelial cells lining the respiratory tract are major determinants of infection by influenza viruses from other hosts. The polymerases, especially PB2, also influence cross-species infection. Methods of diagnosis and characterization of influenza viruses that infect swine have improved over the years, driven both by the availability of new technologies and by the necessity of keeping up with changes in the virus. Testing of oral fluids from pigs for virus and antibody is a recent development that allows efficient sampling of large numbers of animals.

Moving H5N1 studies into the era of systems biology

The dynamics of H5N1 influenza virus pathogenesis are multifaceted and can be seen as an emergent property that cannot be comprehended without looking at the system as a whole. In past years, most of the high-throughput studies on H5N1-host interactions have focused on the host transcriptomic response, at the cellular or the lung tissue level. These studies pointed out that the dynamics and magnitude of the innate immune response and immune cell infiltration is critical to H5N1 pathogenesis. However, viral-host interactions are multidimensional and advances in technologies are creating new possibilities to systematically measure additional levels of 'omic data (e.g. proteomic, metabolomic, and RNA profiling) at each temporal and spatial scale (from the single cell to the organism) of the host response. Natural host genetic variation represents another dimension of the host response that determines pathogenesis. Systems biology models of H5N1 disease aim at understanding and predicting pathogenesis through integration of these different dimensions by using intensive computational modeling. In this review, we describe the importance of 'omic studies for providing a more comprehensive view of infection and mathematical models that are being developed to integrate these data. This review provides a roadmap for what needs to be done in the future and what computational strategies should be used to build a global model of H5N1 pathogenesis. It is time for systems biology of H5N1 pathogenesis to take center stage as the field moves toward a more comprehensive view of virus-host interactions.

Multiscale modeling of influenza A virus infection supports the development of direct-acting antivirals

Influenza A viruses are respiratory pathogens that cause seasonal epidemics with up to 500,000 deaths each year. Yet there are currently only two classes of antivirals licensed for treatment and drug-resistant strains are on the rise. A major challenge for the discovery of new anti-influenza agents is the identification of drug targets that efficiently interfere with viral replication. To support this step, we developed a multiscale model of influenza A virus infection which comprises both the intracellular level where the virus synthesizes its proteins, replicates its genome, and assembles new virions and the extracellular level where it spreads to new host cells. This integrated modeling approach recapitulates a wide range of experimental data across both scales including the time course of all three viral RNA species inside an infected cell and the infection dynamics in a cell population. It also allowed us to systematically study how interfering with specific steps of the viral life cycle affects virus production. We find that inhibitors of viral transcription, replication, protein synthesis, nuclear export, and assembly/release are most effective in decreasing virus titers whereas targeting virus entry primarily delays infection. In addition, our results suggest that for some antivirals therapy success strongly depends on the lifespan of infected cells and, thus, on the dynamics of virus-induced apoptosis or the host's immune response. Hence, the proposed model provides a systems-level understanding of influenza A virus infection and therapy as well as an ideal platform to include further levels of complexity toward a comprehensive description of infectious diseases.

Influenza A viruses are contagious pathogens that cause an infection of the respiratory tract in humans, commonly referred to as flu. Each year seasonal epidemics occur with three to five million cases of severe illness and occasionally new strains can create pandemics like the 1918 Spanish Flu with a high mortality among infected individuals. Currently, there are only two classes of antivirals licensed for influenza treatment. Moreover, these compounds start to lose their effectiveness as drug-resistant strains emerge frequently. Here, we use a computational model of infection to reveal the steps of virus replication that are most susceptible to interference by drugs. Our analysis suggests that the enzyme which replicates the viral genetic code, and the processes involved in virus assembly and release are promising targets for new antivirals. We also highlight that some drugs can change the dynamics of virus replication toward a later but more sustained production. Thus, we demonstrate that modeling studies can be a tremendous asset to the development of antiviral drugs and treatment strategies.

The amazing innate immune response to influenza A virus infection

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) remain a major health threat and a prime example of the significance of innate immunity. Our understanding of innate immunity to IAV has grown dramatically, yielding new concepts that change the way we view innate immunity as a whole. Examples include the role of p53, autophagy, microRNA, innate lymphocytes, endothelial cells and gut commensal bacteria in pulmonary innate immunity. Although the innate response is largely beneficial, it also contributes to major complications of IAV, including lung injury, bacterial super-infection and exacerbation of reactive airways disease. Research is beginning to dissect out which components of the innate response are helpful or harmful. IAV uses its limited genetic complement to maximum effect. Several viral proteins are dedicated to combating innate responses, while other viral structural or replication proteins multitask as host immune modulators. Many host innate immune proteins also multitask, having roles in cell cycle, signaling or normal lung biology. We summarize the plethora of new findings and attempt to integrate them into the larger picture of how humans have adapted to the threat posed by this remarkable virus. We explore how our expanded knowledge suggests ways to modulate helpful and harmful inflammatory responses, and develop novel treatments.

A comprehensive map of the influenza A virus replication cycle

Background

Influenza is a common infectious disease caused by influenza viruses. Annual epidemics cause severe illnesses, deaths, and economic loss around the world. To better defend against influenza viral infection, it is essential to understand its mechanisms and associated host responses. Many studies have been conducted to elucidate these mechanisms, however, the overall picture remains incompletely understood. A systematic understanding of influenza viral infection in host cells is needed to facilitate the identification of influential host response mechanisms and potential drug targets.

Description

We constructed a comprehensive map of the influenza A virus (‘IAV’) life cycle (‘FluMap’) by undertaking a literature-based, manual curation approach. Based on information obtained from publicly available pathway databases, updated with literature-based information and input from expert virologists and immunologists, FluMap is currently composed of 960 factors (i.e., proteins, mRNAs etc.) and 456 reactions, and is annotated with ~500 papers and curation comments. In addition to detailing the type of molecular interactions, isolate/strain specific data are also available. The FluMap was built with the pathway editor CellDesigner in standard SBML (Systems Biology Markup Language) format and visualized as an SBGN (Systems Biology Graphical Notation) diagram. It is also available as a web service (online map) based on the iPathways+ system to enable community discussion by influenza researchers. We also demonstrate computational network analyses to identify targets using the FluMap.

Conclusion

The FluMap is a comprehensive pathway map that can serve as a graphically presented knowledge-base and as a platform to analyze functional interactions between IAV and host factors. Publicly available webtools will allow continuous updating to ensure the most reliable representation of the host-virus interaction network. The FluMap is available at http://www.influenza-x.org/flumap/.

Specific mutations in H5N1 mainly impact the magnitude and velocity of the host response in mice

BACKGROUND

Influenza infection causes respiratory disease that can lead to death. The complex interplay between virus-encoded and host-specific pathogenicity regulators - and the relative contributions of each toward viral pathogenicity - is not well-understood.

RESULTS

By analyzing a collection of lung samples from mice infected by A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1; VN1203), we characterized a signature of transcripts and proteins associated with the kinetics of the host response. Using a new geometrical representation method and two criteria, we show that inoculation concentrations and four specific mutations in VN1203 mainly impact the magnitude and velocity of the host response kinetics, rather than specific sets of up- and down- regulated genes. We observed analogous kinetic effects using lung samples from mice infected with A/California/04/2009 (H1N1), and we show that these effects correlate with morbidity and viral titer.

CONCLUSIONS

We have demonstrated the importance of the kinetics of the host response to H5N1 pathogenesis and its relationship with clinical disease severity and virus replication. These kinetic properties imply that time-matched comparisons of 'omics profiles to viral infections give limited views to differentiate host-responses. Moreover, these results demonstrate that a fast activation of the host-response at the earliest time points post-infection is critical for protective mechanisms against fast replicating viruses.

Time and dose-dependent risk of pneumococcal pneumonia following influenza: a model for within-host interaction between influenza and Streptococcus pneumoniae

A significant fraction of seasonal and in particular pandemic influenza deaths are attributed to secondary bacterial infections. In animal models, influenza virus predisposes hosts to severe infection with both Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus. Despite its importance, the mechanistic nature of the interaction between influenza and pneumococci, its dependence on the timing and sequence of infections as well as the clinical and epidemiological consequences remain unclear. We explore an immune-mediated model of the viral-bacterial interaction that quantifies the timing and the intensity of the interaction. Taking advantage of the wealth of knowledge gained from animal models, and the quantitative understanding of the kinetics of pathogen-specific immunological dynamics, we formulate a mathematical model for immune-mediated interaction between influenza virus and S. pneumoniae in the lungs. We use the model to examine the pathogenic effect of inoculum size and timing of pneumococcal invasion relative to influenza infection, as well as the efficacy of antivirals in preventing severe pneumococcal disease. We find that our model is able to capture the key features of the interaction observed in animal experiments. The model predicts that introduction of pneumococcal bacteria during a 4-6 day window following influenza infection results in invasive pneumonia at significantly lower inoculum size than in hosts not infected with influenza. Furthermore, we find that antiviral treatment administered later than 4 days after influenza infection was not able to prevent invasive pneumococcal disease. This work provides a quantitative framework to study interactions between influenza and pneumococci and has the potential to accurately quantify the interactions. Such quantitative understanding can form a basis for effective clinical care, public health policies and pandemic preparedness.

Reducing uncertainty in within-host parameter estimates of influenza infection by measuring both infectious and total viral load

For in vivo studies of influenza dynamics where within-host measurements are fit with a mathematical model, infectivity assays (e.g. 50% tissue culture infectious dose; TCID₅₀) are often used to estimate the infectious virion concentration over time. Less frequently, measurements of the total (infectious and non-infectious) viral particle concentration (obtained using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction; rRT-PCR) have been used as an alternative to infectivity assays. We investigated the degree to which measuring both infectious (via TCID₅₀) and total (via rRT-PCR) viral load allows within-host model parameters to be estimated with greater consistency and reduced uncertainty, compared with fitting to TCID₅₀ data alone. We applied our models to viral load data from an experimental ferret infection study. Best-fit parameter estimates for the “dual-measurement” model are similar to those from the TCID₅₀-only model, with greater consistency in best-fit estimates across different experiments, as well as reduced uncertainty in some parameter estimates. Our results also highlight how variation in TCID₅₀ assay sensitivity and calibration may hinder model interpretation, as some parameter estimates systematically vary with known uncontrolled variations in the assay. Our techniques may aid in drawing stronger quantitative inferences from in vivo studies of influenza virus dynamics.