A surprising prevention success: why did the HIV epidemic decline in Zimbabwe?

Temporal trends in inequalities of the burden of HIV/AIDS across 186 countries and territories

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has reported that HIV/AIDS continues to take a disproportionate toll on global health. However, the trends in global inequality of HIV/AIDS burden have remained ambiguous over the past two decades. The objectives of our study were to assess the socioeconomic inequalities, and temporal trends of HIV/AIDS across 186 countries and territories from 2000 to 2019.

METHODS

We extracted data from the GBD 2019, and conducted a cross-national time-series analysis. Age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates were used to measure the global burden of HIV/AIDS. Gross national income (GNI) per capita was used to approximate the national socioeconomic status. Linear regression analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between age-standardized DALY rates due to HIV/AIDS and GNI per capita. The concentration curve and concentration index (CI) were generated to evaluate the cross-national socioeconomic inequality of HIV/AIDS burden. A joinpoint regression analysis was used to quantify the changes in trends in socioeconomic inequality of HIV/AIDS burden from 2000 to 2019.

RESULTS

A decrease in age-standardized DALY rates for HIV/AIDS occurred in 132 (71%) of 186 countries/territories from 2000 to 2019, of which 52 (39%) countries/territories achieved a decrease in DALYs of more than 50%, and 27 (52%) of the 52 were from sub-Saharan Africa. The concentration curves of the age-standardized DALY rates of HIV/AIDS were above the equality line from 2000 to 2019. The CI rose from - 0.4625 (95% confidence interval - 0.6220 to -0.2629) in 2000 to -0.4122 (95% confidence interval - 0.6008 to -0.2235) in 2019. A four-phase trend of changes in the CIs of age-standardized DALY rates for HIV/AIDS was observed across 2000 to 2019, with an average increase of 0.6% (95% confidence interval 0.4 to 0.8, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, the burden of HIV/AIDS has decreased over the past two decades, accompanied by a trend of narrowing cross-country inequalities of HIV/AIDS burden. Moreover, the burden of HIV/AIDS continues to fall primarily in low-income countries.

The declining trend in HIV prevalence from population-based surveys in Cameroon between 2004 and 2018: myth or reality in the universal test and treat era?

BACKGROUND

HIV remains an epidemic of major public health importance in Cameroon but a decline in HIV prevalence has been observed according to population-based surveys conducted in 2004, 2011 and 2018. We sought to review current evidence for declining HIV prevalence despite increasing survival owing to 'universal test and treat' and to explore the reason for the decrease, particularly the role of behavioural change.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis using HIV prevalence, behavioural and social determinants data of the Demographic and Health Survey Program databases. Trend lines were fitted to data that were available for a minimum of three points in time during the 1991-2018 period. Regression coefficients associated p-values and 95% confidence intervals were obtained using Microsoft Excel software.

RESULTS

Overall adult HIV prevalence decreased significantly from 5.4% (95%CI: 4.8-6.0) in 2004 to 4.3% (95%CI: 3.8-4.8) in 2011 and further down to 2.7% (95%CI: 2.3-3.1) in 2018 at a rate of about 1.4% every septennium (β = -1.4, R² = 0.98, p = 0.03). Yet, the number of persons surviving with HIV increased from about 0.05 million in 1991 to 0.5 million in 2018 corresponding to an increase in access to antiretroviral therapy from less than 10% to universal coverage of 80% respectively. Concurrent reductions in risky sexual behaviours were observed: a delayed sexual debut by one year, decreased sexual violence by 7%, decreased polygamous unions by 16%, decreased multiple sexual partners by 15.3% and increased condom use by 26.3%.

CONCLUSION

The observed decline in HIV prevalence is statistically valid and reflects the observed decline in risky sexual behaviour that need to be sustained by the National HIV programme. Though universal access to ART has increased the number of persons surviving with HIV, this has not led to an increased prevalence of HIV in a setting with a rising population.

Status of the HIV epidemic in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe prior to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Manicaland province in eastern Zimbabwe has a high incidence of HIV. Completion of the seventh round of the Manicaland Survey in 2018-2019 provided the opportunity to assess the state of the epidemic prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims were to: a) estimate HIV seroprevalence and assess whether prevalence has declined since the last round of the survey (2012-2013), b) describe and analyse the socio-demographic and behavioural risk factors for HIV infection and c) describe the HIV treatment cascade.

METHODS

Participants were administered individual questionnaires collecting data on socio-demographic characteristics, sexual relationships, HIV prevention methods and treatment access, and were tested for HIV. Descriptive analyses were followed by univariate and multivariate analyses of risk factors for HIV seropositvity using logistic regression modelling based on the proximate-determinants framework.

RESULTS

HIV prevalence was 11.3% [95% CI; 10.6-12.0] and was higher in females than males up to 45-49 years. Since 2012-2013 HIV prevalence has significantly declined in 30-44 year-olds in males, and 20-44 year-olds in females. The HIV epidemic has aged since 2012-2013, with an increase in the mean age of HIV positive persons from 38 to 41 years. Socio-demographic determinants of HIV prevalence were church denomination in males, site-type, wealth-status, employment sector and alcohol use in females, and age and marital status in both sexes. Behavioural determinants associated with increased odds of HIV were a higher number of regular sexual partners (lifetime), non-regular sexual partners (lifetime) and condom use in both sexes, and early sexual debut and concomitant STIs in females; medical circumcision was protective in males. HIV status awareness among participants testing positive in our study was low at 66.2%. ART coverage amongst all participants testing positive for HIV in our study was 65.0% and was lower in urban areas than rural areas, particularly in males.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalence has declined, and ART coverage increased, since 2012-2013. Majority of the associations with prevalence hypothesised by the theoretical framework were not observed in our data, likely due to underreporting of sexual risk behaviours or the treatment-as-prevention effect of ART curtailing the probability of transmission despite high levels of sexual risk behaviour. Further reductions in HIV incidence require strengthened primary prevention, HIV testing and linkage to risk behaviour counselling services. Our results serve as a valuable baseline against which to measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV prevalence and its determinants in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, and target interventions appropriately.

Spatial and Temporal Trends in HIV/AIDS Burden Among Worldwide Regions From 1990 to 2019: A Secondary Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Purpose

HIV/AIDS is a critical public health concern worldwide. This article investigated the spatial and temporal trends in HIV/AIDS burden from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and the age-standardized rate (ASR) were used to quantify the change in trends at the global, regional, and national levels.

Results

In terms of temporal trends, during the period 1990–2004, increasing trends in prevalence (EAPC = 7.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.84, 9.12), death (EAPC = 10.85, 95% CI 8.90–12.84), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (EAPC = 10.40, 95% CI 8.47–12.36) of HIV/AIDS were observed. During the period 2005–2019, the global trends in HIV/AIDS incidence, death, and DALYs of HIV/AIDS decreased, with the EAPCs of −2.68 (95% CI−2.82–−2.53), −6.73 (95% CI −6.98–−6.47), and −6.75 (95% CI −6.95–−6.54), respectively. However, the disease prevalence showed a slight increasing trend (EAPC = 0.71, 95% CI 0.54–0.87). In terms of spatial trends, over the past 15 years, trends in HIV/AIDS incidence of HIV/AIDS appeared upward in High-middle and High sociodemographic index (SDI) areas (EAPC = 6.51, 95% CI 5.50–7.53; EAPC = 2.31, 95% CI 2.02–2.60, respectively).

Conclusion

Decreasing trends in HIV/AIDS incidence, death, and DALYs have been observed worldwide over the past 15 years, especially in death and DALYs rates. However, the global population living with HIV/AIDS is still increasing. It is worth noting that an unfavorable trend emerged in High-middle and High SDI areas. Prevention and control of HIV/AIDS still need to be strengthened to counteract these concerning trends.

Changes in causes of pregnancy-related and maternal mortality in Zimbabwe 2007-08 to 2018-19: findings from two reproductive age mortality surveys

Background

Reducing maternal mortality is a priority of Sustainable Development Goal 3.1 which requires frequent epidemiological analysis of trends and patterns of the causes of maternal deaths. We conducted two reproductive age mortality surveys to analyse the epidemiology of maternal mortality in Zimbabwe and analysed the changes in the causes of deaths between 2007-08 and 2018-19.

Methods

We performed a before and after analysis of the causes of death among women of reproductive ages (WRAs) (12-49 years), and pregnant women from the two surveys implemented in 11 districts, selected using multi-stage cluster sampling from each province of Zimbabwe (n=10); an additional district selected from Harare. We calculated mortality incidence rates and incidence rate ratios per 10000 WRAs and pregnant women (with 95% confidence intervals), in international classification of disease groups, using negative binomial models, and compared them between the two surveys. We also calculated maternal mortality ratios, per 100 000 live births, for selected causes of pregnancy-related deaths.

Results

We identified 6188 deaths among WRAs and 325 PRDs in 2007-08, and 1856 and 137 respectively in 2018-19. Mortality in the WRAs decreased by 82% in diseases of the respiratory system and 81% in certain infectious or parasitic diseases' groups, which include HIV/AIDS and malaria. Pregnancy-related deaths decreased by 84% in the indirect causes group and by 61% in the direct causes group, and HIV/AIDS-related deaths decreased by 91% in pregnant women. Direct causes of death still had a three-fold MMR than indirect causes (151 vs. 51 deaths per 100 000) in 2018-19.

Conclusion

Zimbabwe experienced a decline in both direct and indirect causes of pregnancy-related deaths. Deaths from indirect causes declined mainly due to a reduction in HIV/AIDS-related and malaria mortality, while deaths from direct causes declined because of a reduction in obstetric haemorrhage and pregnancy-related infections. Ongoing interventions ought to improve the coverage and quality of maternal care in Zimbabwe, to further reduce deaths from direct causes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13321-7.

The effectiveness of the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) in responding to HIV/AIDS in Four African Countries

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study is to examine how PEPFAR's policies have changed and how these affects Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) issue in two focus countries (Botswana and Ethiopia) and two non-focus countries (Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo, or DR of Congo).

METHOD

This study investigates one country with the highest HIV rate (Botswana) and one with the lowest rates (Ethiopia) among the focus countries, as well as one each with the highest rate (Zimbabwe) and the lowest rate (DR Congo) among the non-focus countries.

RESULTS

This study finds that President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has tended to change its strategies depending on a recipient country's epidemiology and has spent less in non-focus than in focus countries.

CONCLUSIONS

But by revealing the contributions and limitations of PEPFAR in four African countries, this study shows how PEPFAR can improve its future policies in these countries.

Molecular Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics of the HIV-1 Epidemic in Ethiopia: Epidemic Decline Coincided With Behavioral Interventions Before ART Scale-Up

Background

Ethiopia is one of the sub-Saharan countries hit hard by the HIV epidemic. Previous studies have shown that subtype C dominates the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic, but the evolutionary and temporal dynamics of HIV-1 in Ethiopia have not been closely scrutinized. Understanding the evolutionary and epidemiological pattern of HIV is vital to monitor the spread, evaluate and implement HIV prevention strategies.

Methods

We analyzed 1,276 Ethiopian HIV-1 subtype C polymerase (pol sequences), including 144 newly generated sequences, collected from different parts of the country from 1986 to 2017. We employed state-of-art maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylodynamic analyses to comprehensively describe the evolutionary dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Ethiopia. We used Bayesian phylodynamic models to estimate the dynamics of the effective population size (Ne) and reproductive numbers (Re) through time for the HIV epidemic in Ethiopia.

Results

Our analysis revealed that the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic originated from two independent introductions at the beginning of the 1970s and 1980s from eastern and southern African countries, respectively, followed by epidemic growth reaching its maximum in the early 1990s. We identified three large clusters with a majority of Ethiopian sequences. Phylodynamic analyses revealed that all three clusters were characterized by high transmission rates during the early epidemic, followed by a decline in HIV-1 transmissions after 1990. Re was high (4–6) during the earlier time of the epidemic but dropped significantly and remained low (Re &lt; 1) after the mid-1990. Similarly, with an expected shift in time, the effective population size (Ne) steadily increased until the beginning of 2000, followed by a decline and stabilization until recent years. The phylodynamic analyses corroborated the modeled UNAIDS incidence and prevalence estimates.

Conclusion

The rapid decline in the HIV epidemic took place a decade before introducing antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia and coincided with early behavioral, preventive, and awareness interventions implemented in the country. Our findings highlight the importance of behavioral interventions and antiretroviral therapy scale-up to halt and maintain HIV transmissions at low levels (Re &lt; 1). The phylodynamic analyses provide epidemiological insights not directly available using standard surveillance and may inform the adjustment of public health strategies in HIV prevention in Ethiopia.

Factors associated with unsafe sexual behavior among sexually active Chinese University students, Hebei Province, 2019

Background

Healthy sexual behavior is critical for controlling the HIV/AIDS epidemic among university students, particularly in regions with increasing infection rates among university students in China.

Methods

This study investigated the prevalence of unhealthy sexual behavior in the past 6 months and the associated demographic and psychosocial factors among sexually active Chinese university students. Self-identified sexually active Chinese university students were recruited for the study.

Results

The study found that most students used condoms inconsistently during sexual intercourse (54.8%), and logistic regression showed that condomless sex was associated with being raised by a single parent (AOR = 1.934, 95% CI 1.234–3.031) or by grandparents or others (AOR = 1.583, 95% CI 1.003–2.50) and with sometimes using dating apps (AOR = 1.496, 95% CI 1.106–2.024). The independent protective factors for condomless sex were HIV knowledge scores between 15 and 18 compared to scores of 0 to 4 (AOR = 0.434, 95% CI 0.244–0.771). Among sexually active university students, 15.5% reported that they had multiple sexual partners; having multiple sexual partners was associated with sometimes (AOR = 2.543, 95% CI 1.553–4.167) or always (AOR =4.048, 95% CI 2.177–7.527) using dating apps. Being female (AOR = 0.402, 95% CI 0.231–0.699) and in a relationship (AOR = 0.236, 95% CI 0.154–0.363) were protective factors against having multiple sexual partners.

Conclusions

There is an urgent need to promote HIV prevention and to implement psychosocial interventions by providing comprehensive sex education and access to condoms and health care on campuses to decrease the potential factors related to unhealthy sexual behaviors among university students.

Catch them young: Knowledge and awareness levels of HIV and AIDS transmission among high school students in Harare, Zimbabwe

HIV and AIDS has developed as one of the urgent problems affecting many youths in Africa. Yet many of the knowledge and awareness programmes aimed at young people do not target high schools where the majority of young people are found. As a result, many youths do not have accurate information on HIV and AIDS that they can use to protect themselves from the disease. The objectives of this study were to determine the knowledge and awareness of Sixth Form students regarding the spread of HIV and AIDS among young people. A study was carried out among Sixth Form students in three schools in Harare from October 2017 to November 2017. A total of 156 students participated in the survey. Results showed that most students (74%) obtained their information on HIV and AIDS from television and radio programmes. Most students (92%) were able to identify unprotected sexual intercourse as the major mode of HIV transmission, while 89% said that HIV could be transmitted through sharing injections. Some students had misconceptions about HIV and AIDS which might negatively influence their behaviour and attitude towards HIV and AIDS, for example, 11% of students said HIV and AIDS could be cured. The study concludes that programmes on awareness and knowledge application in schools are limited, and efforts should be increased to help students effectively apply the knowledge they have about HIV and AIDS in everyday life situations, and protect themselves from the disease.

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic.

METHODS

To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1-38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78-0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91-1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95-1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58-35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49-42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05-0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76-2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress.

INTERPRETATION

Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the "Getting to Zero" strategy in Illinois, USA

OBJECTIVES

Getting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies.

METHODS

A study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016-2030).

RESULTS

All three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.

Comparison of HIV Incidence in the Zimbabwe Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Survey (2015-2016) with Modeled Estimates: Progress Toward Epidemic Control

Between October 2015 and August 2016, Zimbabwe conducted the Zimbabwe Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (ZIMPHIA) cross-sectional survey to determine progress toward epidemic control. Of 25,131 eligible adults aged 15-64 years, 20,577 (81.8%) consented to face-to-face questionnaire and biomarker testing in this nationally representative household survey. Home-based rapid HIV testing was performed using Determine, First Response, and STAT-PAK as the tiebreaker. HIV-positive tests were confirmed in a laboratory using Geenius HIV-1/2; viral load (VL) was measured using Roche TaqMan and BioMerieux NucliSENS. Recency of infection was tested using Sedia HIV-1 Limiting Antigen (LAg)-Avidity. Presence of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs was detected using high performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (HPLC/MS). The recent infection testing algorithm included LAg-avidity enzyme immunoassay [normalized optical density (ODn ≤1.5), VL ≥1,000 copies/mL, and absence of ARV drugs]. Weighted annual HIV incidence was compared with United Nations Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Spectrum models estimates. Overall, 26 of 2,901 HIV-seropositive individuals had a recent infection (men, 8; women, 18). Overall weighted annual incidence among persons aged 15-64 years was 0.42% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.25-0.59] and was 0.44% (95% CI: 0.25-0.62) for those aged 15-49 years, similar to 2016 Spectrum model estimate (0.54%, 95% CI: 0.49-0.66) for this age group. Among persons aged 15-49 years, HIV prevalence was 13.35% (95% CI: 12.71-14.02), estimated HIV-positive individuals were 968,951 (95% CI: 911,473-1,026,430), of these, 41,911 (95% CI: 37,412-44,787) were annual-new infections, and this was similar to 2016 Spectrum estimates. The observed HIV incidence in ZIMPHIA 2015-2016 validated the 2016 Spectrum estimates and Zimbabwe's progress toward epidemic control.

FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH HIV INFECTION AMONG CLIENTS ACCESSING HIV COUNSELING AND TESTING SERVICES IN A SECONDARY REFERRAL HOSPITAL IN LAGOS, NIGERIA

Background

HIV counselling and testing (HCT) provides an opportunity for people to learn more about the human immune deficiency virus (HIV). This study assessed the knowledge of, and factors associated with, HIV infections among clients assessing HCT services referral hospital in Lagos, Nigeria.

Materials and Methods

Retrospective review of records of clients who assessed HCT services at Mainland Hospital Lagos, Nigeria, between July 1, 2016, and December 31, 2017, was done. Multivariate analysis was done to identify the factors associated with HIV infection and knowledge of HIV.

Results

A total of 4273 clients were screened for HIV within the study period. The mean age of clients was 38.5±14.4. Male: Female ratio was 1:0.87. The prevalence of HIV infection was 19%. Factors associated with HIV infection were: age above 24 years, being female (AOR 1.6 95% CI 1.4-2.0, p<0.001), previous marriage (divorced, widowed, separated) (AOR 2.3 95% CI 1.7- 3.3, p<0.001) and poor knowledge of HIV (AOR 2.9 95% CI 2.2-3.6, p<0.001). Males were 15 times more likely to have good knowledge of HIV than females (AOR 14.5 95% CI 10.5- 20.0, p<0.001). In addition, the clients who were single (AOR 3.6 95% CI 2.4-5.4, p<0.001) and married (AOR 3.9 95% CI 2.9-5.3, p<0.001) were four times more likely to have good knowledge of HIV than clients who were previously married.

Conclusion

More proactive measures are required to educate the public, especially women who were previously married, on HIV transmission and prevention.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.

FINDINGS

Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.

INTERPRETATION

Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Impact of the adolescent and youth sexual and reproductive health strategy on service utilisation and health outcomes in Zimbabwe

Poor reproductive health among youth and adolescents threatens their future health and economic wellbeing in Zimbabwe amidst a high HIV/AIDS prevalence. This study evaluates the impact of a multi-pronged adolescent sexual and reproductive health (ASRH) strategy implemented by government of Zimbabwe between 2010 and 2015 to improve ASRH in terms of the uptake of condoms and HIV testing as well as outcomes in terms of sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence and HIV prevalence. We combine the difference in difference and propensity score matching methods to analyse repeated Zimbabwe demographic health survey cross-sectional datasets. Young people aged 15–19 years at baseline in 2010, who were exposed for the entire five-year strategy are designated as the treatment group and young adults aged 25–29 at baseline as the control. We find that the ASRH strategy increased HIV testing amongst youth by 36.6 percent, whilst treatment of STIs also increased by 30.4 percent. We also find that the HIV prevalence trajectory was reduced by 0.7 percent. We do not find evidence of impact on condom use and STI prevalence. The findings also suggest that although HIV testing increased for all socio-economic groups that were investigated, the effect was not the same. Lastly, we do not find evidence supporting that more resources translate to better ASRH outcomes. We recommend designing future ASRH strategies in a way that differentiates service delivery for youths in HIV hotspots, rural areas and out of school. We also recommend improving the strategy’s coordination and monitoring, as well as aligning and enforcing government policies that promote sexual and reproductive health rights.

Widespread changes in sexual behaviour in eastern and southern Africa: Challenges to achieving global HIV targets? Longitudinal analyses of nationally representative surveys

INTRODUCTION

Sexual behaviour change contributed to reductions in HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa between 1990 and 2010. More recently, there are indications that non-regular partnerships have increased. However, the effect of these increases on population-level risks for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections could have been reduced by simultaneous increases in condom use. We describe recent trends in sexual behaviour and condom use within the region and assess their combined effects on population levels of sexual risk.

METHODS

Nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey data on sexually active males and females (15 to 49 years) were used for 11 eastern and southern African countries (≥3 surveys for each country; 1999 to 2016) to describe trends in sexual behaviour (multiple, non-regular, and casual sexual partnerships; condom use; age at first sex). Logistic regressions tested for statistical significance of changes. Analyses were stratified by sex.

RESULTS

Recent increases in multiple, non-regular, and/or casual partnerships can be found for males in 10 countries and, for females, in nine countries; five countries exhibited recent decreases in age of sexual debut. Reduction in sex without condoms with non-regular partners was observed in six countries for males and eight for females. Changes in the proportion of the overall population reporting condomless sex with non-regular partners varied between countries, with declines in six countries and increases in three.

CONCLUSIONS

Extensive change in sexual behaviour occurred across eastern and southern Africa during the period of scale-up of antiretroviral therapy programmes. This includes increasing multiple and non-regular partnerships, but their potential effects on population-level sexual risks were often offset by parallel increases in condom use. Strengthening condom programmes and reintegrating communication about behavioural dimensions into combination prevention programmes could help countries to meet international targets for reductions in HIV incidence.

Economy, migrant labour and sex work: interplay of HIV epidemic drivers in Zimbabwe over three decades

BACKGROUND

HIV took off rapidly in Zimbabwe during the 1980s. Yet, between 1998 and 2003, as the economy faltered, HIV prevalence declined abruptly and without clear explanation.

METHODS

We reviewed epidemiological, behavioural, and economic data over three decades to understand changes in economic conditions, migrant labour and sex work that may account for observed fluctuations in Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic. Potential biases related to changing epidemic paradigms and data sources were examined.

RESULTS

Early studies describe rural poverty, male migrant labour and sex work as conditions facilitating HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) transmission. By the mid-1990s, as Zimbabwe's epidemic became more generalized, research focus shifted to general population household surveys. Yet, less than half as many men than women were found at home during surveys in the 1990s, increasing to 80% during the years of economic decline. Other studies suggest that male demand for sex work fell abruptly as migrant workers were laid off, picking up again when the economy rebounded after 2009. Numbers of clients reported by sex workers, and their STI rates, followed similar patterns reaching a nadir in the early 2000s. Studies from 2009 describe a return to more active sex work, linked to increasing client demand, as well as a revitalized programme reaching sex workers.

CONCLUSION

The importance of the downturn in migrant labour and resultant changes in sex work may be underestimated as drivers of Zimbabwe's rapid HIV incidence and prevalence declines. Household surveys underrepresent populations at the highest risk of HIV/STI acquisition and transmission, and these biases vary with changing economic conditions.

HIV prevalence correlated with circumcision prevalence and high-risk sexual behavior in India's states: an ecological study

Background: HIV prevalence varies between 0% and 1.6% in India's states. The factors underpinning this variation are poorly defined.

Methods: We evaluated the relationship between HIV prevalence by state and a range of risk factors in the Indian 2015 National Family Health Survey. Pearson’s correlation was used to assess the relationship between HIV prevalence and each variable. The prevalence of each risk factor was compared between five high-HIV-prevalence states (>1% prevalence) and a large low-HIV-prevalence state (Uttar Pradesh; HIV prevalence, 0.06%).

Results: There was an association between HIV prevalence and men's mean lifetime number of partners (r = 0.55; P = 0.001) and men reporting sex with a non-married, non-cohabiting partner (r = 0.40; P = 0.014). In general, men in high-prevalence states were less likely to be circumcised and (with the exception of Chandigarh) use condoms at last sex. In two high prevalence states (Mizoram and Nagaland), men reported a higher number of lifetime partners and a higher prevalence of multiple partners and high-risk sex in the past year.

Conclusions: Variation in circumcision prevalence and sexual behavior may contribute to the large variations in HIV prevalence by state in India.

Differential sexual network connectivity offers a parsimonious explanation for population-level variations in the prevalence of bacterial vaginosis: a data-driven, model-supported hypothesis

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of bacterial vaginosis (BV) and vaginal microbiota types varies dramatically between different populations around the world. Understanding what underpins these differences is important, as high-diversity microbiotas associated with BV are implicated in adverse pregnancy outcomes and enhanced susceptibility to and transmission of sexually transmitted infections.

MAIN TEXT

We hypothesize that these variations in the vaginal microbiota can, in part, be explained by variations in the connectivity of sexual networks. We argue: 1) Couple-level data suggest that BV-associated bacteria can be sexually transmitted and hence high sexual network connectivity would be expected to promote the spread of BV-associated bacteria. Epidemiological studies have found positive associations between indicators of network connectivity and the prevalence of BV; 2) The relationship between BV prevalence and STI incidence/prevalence can be parsimoniously explained by differential network connectivity; 3) Studies from other mammals are generally supportive of the association between network connectivity and high-diversity vaginal microbiota.

CONCLUSION

To test this hypothesis, we propose a combination of empirical and simulation-based study designs.

Protocol for the evaluation of the population-level impact of Zimbabwe's prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission program option B+: a community based serial cross-sectional study

Background

WHO recommends that HIV infected women receive antiretroviral therapy (ART) minimally during pregnancy and breastfeeding (“Option B”), or ideally throughout their lives regardless of clinical stage (“Option B+”) (Coovadia et al., Lancet 379:221–228, 2012). Although these recommendations were based on clinical trials demonstrating the efficacy of ART during pregnancy and breastfeeding, the population-level effectiveness of Option B+ is unknown, as are retention on ART beyond the immediate post-partum period, and the relative impact and cost-effectiveness of Option B+ compared to Option A (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 62:148–151, 2013; Ahmed et al., Curr Opin HIV AIDS 8:473–488, 2013). To address these issues, we conducted an impact evaluation of Zimbabwe’s prevention of mother to child transmission programme conducted between 2011 and 2018 using serial, community-based cross-sectional serosurveys, which spanned changes in WHO recommendations. Here we describe the rationale for the design and analysis.

Methods/design

Our method is to survey mother-infant pairs residing in the catchment areas of 157 health facilities randomly selected from 5 of 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. We collect questionnaires, blood samples from mothers and babies for HIV antibody and viral load testing, and verbal autopsies for deceased mothers/babies. Using this approach, we collected data from two previous time points: 2012 (pre-Option A standard of care), 2014 (post-Option A / pre-Option B+) and will collect a third round of data in 2017–18 (post Option B+ implementation) to monitor population-level trends in mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT) and HIV-free infant survival. In addition, we will collect detailed information on facility level factors that may influence service delivery and costs.

Discussion

Although the efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy and breastfeeding for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) has been well-documented in randomized trials, little evidence exists on the population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of Option B+ or the influence of the facility on implementation (Siegfried et al., Cochrane Libr 7:CD003510, 2017). This study will provide essential data on these gaps and will provide estimates on retention in care among Option B+ clients after the breastfeeding period.

Trial registration

NCT03388398 Retrospectively registered January 3, 2018.

It's the network, stupid: a population's sexual network connectivity determines its STI prevalence

There is little consensus as to why sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including HIV and bacterial vaginosis (BV) are more prevalent in some populations than others. Using a broad definition of sexual network connectivity that includes both structural and conductivity-related factors, we argue that the available evidence suggests that high prevalence of traditional STIs, HIV and BV can be parsimoniously explained by these populations having more connected sexual networks. Positive feedback, whereby BV and various STIs enhance the spread of other STIs, then further accentuates the spread of BV, HIV and other STIs. We review evidence that support this hypothesis and end by suggesting study designs that could further evaluate the hypothesis, as well as implications of this hypothesis for the prevention and management of STIs.

Strong association between higher-risk sex and HIV prevalence at the regional level: an ecological study of 27 sub-Saharan African countries

Background: It is unclear why HIV prevalence varies by nearly two orders of magnitude between regions within countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In this ecological study, we assess if HIV prevalence by region is associated with any of four markers of higher risk sexual behavior: lifetime number of partners, multiple partners in past year, higher risk sex (defined as sex with non-cohabiting, non-marital partners) and age at debut. Methods: We performed Pearson's correlation between the 4 behavioral risk factors and HIV prevalence by region in 47 nationally representative surveys from 27 sub-Saharan African countries, separately by gender. In addition, principal components analysis was used to reduce the eight risk factors (four for each gender) to two principal components (PCs). Mixed effects linear regression was used to assess the relationship between the resulting two PCs and HIV prevalence after controlling for the prevalence of male circumcision. Results: HIV prevalence varied by a median 3.7 fold (IQR 2.9-7.9) between regions within countries. HIV prevalence was strongly associated with higher risk sex and, to a lesser extent, the other risk factors evaluated. Both PCs were strongly associated with HIV prevalence when assessed via linear regression. Conclusions: Differences in sexual behavior may underpin the large differences in HIV-prevalence between subpopulation within sub-Saharan African countries.

It's the network, stupid: a population's sexual network connectivity determines its STI prevalence

There is little consensus as to why sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including HIV and bacterial vaginosis (BV) are more prevalent in some populations than others. Using a broad definition of sexual network connectivity that includes both structural and conductivity-related factors, we argue that the available evidence suggests that high prevalence of traditional STIs, HIV and BV can be parsimoniously explained by these populations having more connected sexual networks. Positive feedback, whereby BV and various STIs enhance the spread of other STIs, then further accentuates the spread of BV, HIV and other STIs. We review evidence that support this hypothesis and end by suggesting study designs that could further evaluate the hypothesis, as well as implications of this hypothesis for the prevention and management of STIs.

The future of health in Zimbabwe

In November 2017, following a military intervention, Robert Mugabe was forced to resign as president of Zimbabwe – where he had ruthlessly ruled since 1980. Mugabe’s regime was responsible for destroying the country’s excellent health system. I argue that this is a unique moment for health reform in Zimbabwe. This reform should focus on three areas: (1) repairing relationships with the international community by focusing on human rights and eliminating corruption, (2) strengthening the health workforce through retention strategies, training, and non-specialist providers, and (3) community engagement. The future of Zimbabwe’s health system is in limbo, and now is a unique opportunity to make positive change.

A longitudinal review of national HIV policy and progress made in health facility implementation in Eastern Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

In recent years, WHO has made major changes to its guidance on the provision of HIV care and treatment services. We conducted a longitudinal study from 2013 to 2015 to establish how these changes have been translated into national policy in Zimbabwe and to measure progress in implementation within local health facilities.

METHODS

National HIV programme policy guidelines published between 2003 and 2013 (n = 9) and 2014 and 2015 (n = 5) were reviewed to assess adoption of WHO recommendations on HIV testing services, prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV, and provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Changes in local implementation of these policies over time were measured in two rounds of a survey conducted at 36 health facilities in Eastern Zimbabwe in 2013 and 2015.

RESULTS

High levels of adoption of WHO guidance into national policy were recorded, including adoption of new recommendations made in 2013-2015 to introduce PMTCT Option B+ and to increase the threshold for ART initiation from CD4 ≤ 350 cells/mm3 to ≤ 500 cells/mm3. New strategies to implement national HIV policies were introduced such as the decentralisation of ART services from hospitals to clinics and task-shifting of care from doctors to nurses. The proportions of health facilities offering free HIV testing and counselling, PMTCT (including Option B+) and ART services increased substantially from 2013 to 2015, despite reductions in numbers of health workers. Provision of provider-initiated HIV testing remained consistently high. At least one test-kit stock-out in the prior year was reported in most facilities (2013: 69%; 2015: 61%; p = 0.44). Stock-outs of first-line ART and prophylactic drugs for opportunistic infections remained low. Repeat testing for HIV-negative individuals within 3 months decreased (2013: 97%; 2015: 72%; p = 0.01). Laboratory testing remained low across both survey rounds, despite policy and operational guidelines to expand coverage of diagnostic services.

CONCLUSIONS

Good progress has been made in implementing international guidance on HIV service delivery in Zimbabwe. Further novel implementation strategies may be needed to achieve the latest targets for universal ART eligibility.

Loss to follow-up among children and adolescents growing up with HIV infection: age really matters

INTRODUCTION

Globally, increasing numbers of HIV-infected children are reaching adolescence due to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We investigated rates of loss-to-follow-up (LTFU) from HIV care services among children as they transition from childhood through adolescence.

METHODS

Individuals aged 5-19 years initiated on ART in a public-sector HIV clinic in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, between 2005 and 2009 were included in a retrospective cohort study. Participants were categorized into narrow age-bands namely: 5-9 (children), 10-14 (young adolescents) and 15-19 (older adolescents). The effect of age at ART initiation, current age (using a time-updated Lexis expansion) and transitioning from one age group to the next on LTFU was estimated using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Of 2273 participants, 1013, 875 and 385 initiated ART aged 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 years, respectively. Unlike those starting ART as children, individuals starting ART as young adolescents had higher LTFU rates after moving to the older adolescent age-band (Adjusted rate ratio (ARR) 1.54; 95% CI: 0.94-2.55) and similarly, older adolescents had higher LTFU rates after transitioning to being young adults (ARR 1.79; 95% CI: 1.05-3.07). In older adolescents, the LTFU rate among those who started ART in that age-band was higher compared to the rate among those starting ART at a younger age (ARR = 1.70; 95% CI: 1.05, 2.77). This however did not hold true for other age-groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Adolescents had higher rates of LTFU compared to other age-groups, with older adolescents at particularly high risk in all analyses. Age-updated analyses that examine movement across narrow age-bands are paramount in understanding how developmental heterogeneity in children affects HIV outcomes.

Documenting and explaining the HIV decline in east Zimbabwe: the Manicaland General Population Cohort

PURPOSE

The Manicaland cohort was established to provide robust scientific data on HIV prevalence and incidence, patterns of sexual risk behaviour and the demographic impact of HIV in a sub-Saharan African population subject to a generalised HIV epidemic. The aims were later broadened to include provision of data on the coverage and effectiveness of national HIV control programmes including antiretroviral therapy (ART).

PARTICIPANTS

General population open cohort located in 12 sites in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe, representing 4 major socioeconomic strata (small towns, agricultural estates, roadside settlements and subsistence farming areas). 9,109 of 11,453 (79.5%) eligible adults (men 17-54 years; women 15-44 years) were recruited in a phased household census between July 1998 and January 2000. Five rounds of follow-up of the prospective household census and the open cohort were conducted at 2-year or 3-year intervals between July 2001 and November 2013. Follow-up rates among surviving residents ranged between 77.0% (over 3 years) and 96.4% (2 years).

FINDINGS TO DATE

HIV prevalence was 25.1% at baseline and had a substantial demographic impact with 10-fold higher mortality in HIV-infected adults than in uninfected adults and a reduction in the growth rate in the worst affected areas (towns) from 2.9% to 1.0%pa. HIV infection rates have been highest in young adults with earlier commencement of sexual activity and in those with older sexual partners and larger numbers of lifetime partners. HIV prevalence has since fallen to 15.8% and HIV incidence has also declined from 2.1% (1998-2003) to 0.63% (2009-2013) largely due to reduced sexual risk behaviour. HIV-associated mortality fell substantially after 2009 with increased availability of ART.

FUTURE PLANS

We plan to extend the cohort to measure the effects on the epidemic of current and future HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Proposals for access to these data and for collaboration are welcome.

The Sooner, the Worse? Association between Earlier Age of Sexual Initiation and Worse Adolescent Health and Well-being Outcomes

This cross-sectional study assesses the association between age of sexual initiation during adolescence and a selection of well-being outcomes regarding that first relationship. High-school adolescents from El Salvador (2,686) and from Peru (3,399) replied to a paper-pencil questionnaire. Those who were sexually initiated replied to several questions regarding their age at sexual initiation, condom use, satisfaction and reasons/circumstances for that sexual relationship. Approximately 19% of participants were sexually initiated (n = 1,179). After retaining participants with valid responses and with sexual initiation ages between 13 and 17, the final sample for this paper consisted of 996 sexually initiated participants (526 Salvadorians and 470 Peruvians). Multiple logistic regression analyses showed that those who initiated sex at earlier ages had worse outcomes compared to those who initiated at older ages. Specifically, they had lower odds of having used a condom, of having good memories of that experience and of having had that first relationship because they were in love. Conversely, they had higher odds of having had that first sexual relationship as a result of peer pressure (“Most of my friends already had sex”), because of partner pressure (“I was afraid to lose him/her,” “My partner told me he/she would leave me” or “I did not know how to say no to a person who insisted”), or as a consequence of different forms of impaired autonomy (“I was under the influence of alcohol or drugs” or “As a consequence of seeing sexual images”). Results show that sex at earlier ages is associated with worse adolescent health and well-being outcomes.

A review of interprovincial variations in HIV prevalence rates in Zimbabwe

Despite the proven remarkable decline of HIV prevalence in the sub-Saharan Africa region, both sub-regional and within-country disparities in HIV prevalence persist. This paper is a survey of literature on HIV prevalence and spread in Zimbabwe, focusing on provincial differences within the national picture of a decline in new infections. In particular, it raises the question of why prevalence and infection rates seem to be disproportionately higher in Matabeleland relative to other provinces of the country. This disparity cannot be adequately explained on the basis of national behavioural analyses as has been the case. The paper suggests possible additional nuances in the forms of analysis and proposes a change of focus in HIV-prevention strategies from national level to provincial considerations of the multiple factors influencing variations in HIV infection rates at provincial level. Using the different contextual conditions between provinces as a way to examine what might be the additional significant variables, the paper brings variations that go beyond sexual behaviour.

The HIV prevention cascade: integrating theories of epidemiological, behavioural, and social science into programme design and monitoring

Theories of epidemiology, health behaviour, and social science have changed the understanding of HIV prevention in the past three decades. The HIV prevention cascade is emerging as a new approach to guide the design and monitoring of HIV prevention programmes in a way that integrates these multiple perspectives. This approach recognises that translating the efficacy of direct mechanisms that mediate HIV prevention (including prevention products, procedures, and risk-reduction behaviours) into population-level effects requires interventions that increase coverage. An HIV prevention cascade approach suggests that high coverage can be achieved by targeting three key components: demand-side interventions that improve risk perception and awareness and acceptability of prevention approaches; supply-side interventions that make prevention products and procedures more accessible and available; and adherence interventions that support ongoing adoption of prevention behaviours, including those that do and do not involve prevention products. Programmes need to develop delivery platforms that ensure these interventions reach target populations, to shape the policy environment so that it facilitates implementation at scale with high quality and intensity, and to monitor the programme with indicators along the cascade.

HIV Prevention 2020: a framework for delivery and a call for action

Although effective programmes are available and several countries have seen substantial declines in new HIV infections, progress in the reduction of adult HIV incidence has been slower than expected worldwide and many countries have not had large decreases in new infections in adults despite large reductions in paediatric infections. Reasons for slow progress include inadequate commitment, investment, focus, scale, and quality of implementation of prevention and treatment interventions. The UNAIDS-Lancet Commission on Defeating AIDS-Advancing Global Health reported that the provision of large-scale, effective HIV prevention programmes has failed and called on stakeholders to "get serious about HIV prevention". An ambitious worldwide target has been set by UNAIDS to reduce new infections below 500 000 by 2020-a 75% reduction from 2010. Models show that such a reduction requires a combination of primary prevention interventions and preventative effects of treatment. Achievement of the target will require more effective delivery of HIV prevention for sufficient coverage in populations at greatest risk of infection ensuring that interventions that have proved effective are made available, barriers to their uptake are overcome, demand is created, and use is consistent and occurs at the right scale with high coverage. This paper discusses how programmatic targets for prevention in a worldwide plan could be used to re-energise the HIV prevention approach. A management framework is proposed outlining global, regional, national, and subnational actions and is summarised in a call for action on HIV prevention for 2020.

A reconfiguration of the sex trade: How social and structural changes in eastern Zimbabwe left women involved in sex work and transactional sex more vulnerable

Understanding the dynamic nature of sex work is important for explaining the course of HIV epidemics. While health and development interventions targeting sex workers may alter the dynamics of the sex trade in particular localities, little has been done to explore how large-scale social and structural changes, such as economic recessions-outside of the bounds of organizational intervention-may reconfigure social norms and attitudes with regards to sex work. Zimbabwe's economic collapse in 2009, following a period (2000-2009) of economic decline, within a declining HIV epidemic, provides a unique opportunity to study community perceptions of the impact of socio-economic upheaval on the sex trade. We conducted focus group discussions with 122 community members in rural eastern Zimbabwe in January-February 2009. Groups were homogeneous by gender and occupation and included female sex workers, married women, and men who frequented bars. The focus groups elicited discussion around changes (comparing contemporaneous circumstances in 2009 to their memories of circumstances in 2000) in the demand for, and supply of, paid sex, and how sex workers and clients adapted to these changes, and with what implications for their health and well-being. Transcripts were thematically analyzed. The analysis revealed how changing economic conditions, combined with an increased awareness and fear of HIV-changing norms and local attitudes toward sex work-had altered the demand for commercial sex. In response, sex work dispersed from the bars into the wider community, requiring female sex workers to employ different tactics to attract clients. Hyperinflation meant that sex workers had to accept new forms of payment, including sex-on-credit and commodities. Further impacting the demand for commercial sex work was a poverty-driven increase in transactional sex. The economic upheaval in Zimbabwe effectively reorganized the market for sex by reducing previously dominant forms of commercial sex, while simultaneously providing new opportunities for women to exchange sex in less formal and more risky transactions. Efforts to measure and respond to the contribution of sex work to HIV transmission need to guard against unduly static definitions and consider the changing socioeconomic context and how this can cause shifts in behavior.

Leadership emergence: the application of the Cynefin framework during a bio-social HIV/AIDS risk-reduction pilot

This article focuses on the utility of a knowledge management heuristic called the Cynefin framework, which was applied during an ongoing pilot intervention in the Limpopo province, South Africa. The intervention aimed to identify and then consolidate low-cost, innovative bio-social responses to reinforce the biomedical opportunities that now have the potential to "end AIDS by 2030″. The Cynefin framework is designed to enable leaders to identify specific decision-making domain typologies as a mechanism to maximise the effectiveness of leadership responses to both opportunities and challenges that emerge during interventions. In this instance the Cynefin framework was used to: (1) provide an indication to the project managers whether the early stages of the intervention had been effective; (2) provide the participants an opportunity to identify emergent knowledge action spaces (opportunities and challenges); and (3) categorise them into appropriate decision-making domains in preparation for the next phases of the intervention. A qualitative methodology was applied to collect and analyse the findings. The findings indicate that applying the Cynefin framework enabled the participants to situate knowledge action spaces into appropriate decision-making domains. From this participatory evaluation a targeted management strategy was developed for the next phases of the initiative. The article concludes by arguing that the Cynefin framework was an effective mechanism for situating emergent knowledge action spaces into appropriate decision-making domains, which enabled them to prepare for the next phases of the intervention. This process of responsive decision making could have utility in other development related interventions.

Gender inequality dynamics in the prevention of a heterosexual HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper critiques the approach to the elimination of gender inequality as an HIV prevention strategy in the just ended era of the Millennium Development Goals, with the aim of contributing to the formulation of policy guidelines for sub-Saharan Africa in the Sustainable Development Goals. The aim is to underscore the mutual responsibility of women and men in achieving a sustainable HIV response and ending the epidemic. While taking into account the real vulnerability of women, prevention programmes can reflect gender dynamics more accurately so that attention is given to the role of both sexes in propagating - or stemming - a predominantly heterosexual HIV epidemic. More emphasis could be given to the harm caused to both men and women by certain norms related to masculinity and sexuality, and the subsequent need for combined efforts in reducing intimate partner violence and concurrency. The empowerment and engagement of both women and men as agents of change would need to be dealt with more creatively.

New insights into HIV epidemic in South Africa: key findings from the National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey, 2012

This article presents key findings from the 2012 HIV prevalence, incidence and behaviour survey conducted in South Africa and explores trends in the HIV epidemic. A representative household based survey collected behavioural and biomedical data among people of all ages. Chi-squared test for association and formal trend tests (2002, 2005, 2008 and 2012) were used to test for associations and trends in the HIV epidemic across the four surveys. In 2012 a total of 38 431 respondents were interviewed from 11 079 households; 28 997 (67.5%) of 42 950 eligible individuals provided blood specimens. HIV prevalence was 12.2% [95% CI: 11.4-13.1] in 2012 with prevalence higher among females 14.4% than males 9.9%. Adults aged 25-49 years were most affected, 25.2% [95% CI: 23.2-27.3]. HIV prevalence increased from 10.6% [95%CI: 9.8-11.6] in 2008 to 12.2% [95% CI: 11.4-13.1] in 2012 (p < 0.001). Antiretroviral treatment (ART) exposure doubled from 16.6% in 2008 to 31.2% in 2012 (p < 0.001). HIV incidence in 2012 among persons 2 years and older was 1.07% [95% CI: 0.87-1.27], with the highest incidence among Black African females aged 20-34 years at 4.5%. Sexual debut before 15 years was reported by 10.7% of respondents aged 15-24 years, and was significantly higher among male youth than female (16.7% vs. 5.0% respectively, p < 0.001). Reporting of multiple sexual partners in the previous 12 months increased from 11.5% in 2002 to 18.3% in 2012 (p < 0.001). Condom use at last sex dropped from 45.1% in 2008 to 36.2% in 2012 (p < 0.001). Levels of accurate HIV knowledge about transmission and prevention were low and had decreased between 2008 and 2012 from 31.5% to 26.8%. South Africa is on the right track with scaling up ART. However, there have been worrying increases in most HIV-related risk behaviours. These findings suggest that there is a need to scale up prevention methods that integrate biomedical, behavioural, social and structural prevention interventions to reverse the tide in the fight against HIV.

Rising Levels of HIV Infection in Older Adults in Eastern Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

With the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment across Africa, many people are living longer with HIV. Understanding the ageing of the HIV cohort and sexual behaviour among older adults are important for appropriately responding to the changing demographics of people living with HIV.

METHODS

We used data from a large population-based open cohort in eastern Zimbabwe to examine HIV prevalence trends and incidence among those aged 45 years and older. Five survey rounds have been completed between 1998 and 2011. Incidence was analysed using midpoint between last negative and first positive HIV test.

RESULTS

Across the survey rounds, 13,071 individuals were followed for 57,676 person years. While HIV prevalence among people aged 15-44 has fallen across the five rounds, HIV prevalence among those aged 45-54 has increased since the 2006-08 survey round. In the 2009-11 round, HIV prevalence among men aged 45-54 was 23.4% compared to 11.0% among those aged 15-44. HIV positive people aged 45-54 now represent more than 20% of all those living with HIV in Manicaland. Among those aged 45 years and older, there were 85 seroconversions in 11,999 person years for an HIV incidence of 0.708 per 100 person years. Analysis of cohort data and assessment of behavioural risk factors for HIV infection among older people shows significantly lower levels of condom use among older adults and a number of seroconversions past the age of 50.

CONCLUSIONS

The cohort of people living with HIV is ageing in Zimbabwe and the behaviour of older adults puts them at risk of HIV infection. Older adults must be included in both HIV prevention and treatment programs.

Transition to Parenthood and HIV Infection in Rural Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

The relationship between the risk of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and people's choices about life course events describing the transition to parenthood-sexual debut, union (in the form of marriage, cohabitation, or long-term relationship), and parenthood-is still unclear. A crucial role in shaping this relationship may be played by the sequence of these events and by their timing. This suggests the opportunity to focus on the life courses in their entirety rather than on the specific events, thus adopting a holistic approach that regards each individual's life course trajectory as a whole.

METHODS

We summarise the individual life courses describing the transition to parenthood using ordered sequences of the three considered events. We aim to (i) investigate the association between the sequences and HIV infection, and (ii) understand how these sequences interact with known mechanisms for HIV transmission, such as the length of sexual exposure and the experience of non-regular sexual partnerships. For this purpose, we use data from a general population cohort study run in Manicaland (Zimbabwe), a Sub-Saharan African area characterised by high HIV prevalence.

RESULTS

For both genders, individuals who experienced either premarital or delayed childbearing have higher HIV risk compared to individuals following more standard transitions. This can be explained by the interplay of the sequences with known HIV proximate determinants, e.g., a longer exposure to sexual activity and higher rates of premarital sex. Moreover, we found that people in the younger birth cohorts experience more normative and safer sequences.

CONCLUSIONS

The shift of younger generations towards more normative transitions to parenthood is a sign of behaviour change that might have contributed to the observed reduction in HIV prevalence in the area. On the other hand, for people with less normative transitions, targeted strategies are essential for HIV prevention.

Culture, myths and panic: Three decades and beyond with an HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is going through a generalised acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. The first five years of the epidemic (1985-1990) were characterised by lack of medicines against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and an exponential increase in prevalence (65-fold) and incidence (13-fold), which were fuelled by high-risk sexual behaviour. The high HIV prevalence, mortality and stigma yielded great fear and panic in the population, which are thought to have led to confusion and hopelessness, and, in turn, increased risky sexual behaviour. The country's government and civil society embarked on HIV awareness campaigns that are claimed to have played a central role in slowing down the epidemic since the mid-2000s. HIV-related mortality then fell by 70% between 2003 and 2013, which is attributed to high uptake of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (95%) prophylaxis. However, the epidemic has been characterised by a low paediatric ART coverage (35% in 2011 to 46.12% in 2013). Year 2014 saw an increase in adolescent and young adult HIV prevalence, which may be signalling a rebound of the epidemic. A more holistic approach which deals with the epidemic in its socio-political context is required to effectively lower the country's HIV burden.

Correlates of concurrency among young people in Carletonville, South Africa

There is still a considerable debate about whether socioeconomic or cultural factors underpin the high prevalence of sexual partner concurrency in parts of Southern and Eastern Africa. We analyzed the patterning and correlates of concurrency in a population-based sample of 1182 sexually active 14-24 year olds in Carletonville, South Africa. Potential demographic, socioeconomic and attitudinal risk factors were assessed via a questionnaire. The association between risk factors and respondent reported concurrency were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Separate models were run for men and women. Point-concurrency rates at the time of the survey and 6 months prior to the survey were similarly high--19.3 (95% confidence interval, CI 14.2-18.5%) and 16.2% (CI 14.1-18.4%), respectively. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that for men and women, concurrency was not associated with socioeconomic deprivation but was associated with a number of sexual partners, being married and having a partner who was thought to have an additional partner. Female concurrents were more likely to use alcohol, have an older partner and have difficulties negotiating condom usage and refusing sex with their partners. Male concurrents were less likely to use a condom regularly and less likely to wear a condom when their partner asked them to. The strong relationship between respondent and partner concurrency appears to depend on contemporary concurrency, as opposed to the behavior of previous partners. If high concurrency rates are in part driven by positive feedback loops of partner and respondent concurrency, then norm change involving the rejection of concurrents could be self-amplifying leading to a rapid decline of concurrency.

Ability of HIV Advocacy to Modify Behavioral Norms and Treatment Impact: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

HIV advocacy programs are partly responsible for the global community's success in reducing the burden of HIV. The rising wave of the global burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) has prompted the World Health Organization to espouse NCD advocacy efforts as a possible preventive strategy. HIV and NCDs share some similarities in their chronicity and risky behaviors, which are their associated etiology. Therefore, pooled evidence on the effectiveness of HIV advocacy programs and ideas shared could be replicated and applied during the conceptualization of NCD advocacy programs. Such evidence, however, has not been systematically reviewed to address the effectiveness of HIV advocacy programs, particularly programs that aimed at changing public behaviors deemed as risk factors.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the effectiveness of HIV advocacy programs and draw lessons from those that are effective to strengthen future noncommunicable disease advocacy programs.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched for evidence regarding the effectiveness of HIV advocacy programs in medical databases: PubMed, The Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature Plus, Educational Resources and Information Center, and Web of Science, with articles dated from 1994 to 2014. Search criteria. The review protocol was registered before this review. The inclusion criteria were studies on advocacy programs or interventions. We selected studies with the following designs: randomized controlled design studies, pre-post intervention studies, cohorts and other longitudinal studies, quasi-experimental design studies, and cross-sectional studies that reported changes in outcome variables of interest following advocacy programs. We constructed Boolean search terms and used them in PubMed as well as other databases, in line with a population, intervention, comparator, and outcome question. The flow of evidence search and reporting followed the standard Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We selected 2 outcome variables (i.e., changing social norms and a change in impact) out of 6 key outcomes of advocacy interventions. We assessed the risk of bias for all selected studies by using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomized studies and using the Risk of Bias for Nonrandomized Observational Studies for observational studies. We did not grade the collective quality of evidence because of differences between the studies, with regard to methods, study designs, and context. Moreover, we could not carry out meta-analyses because of heterogeneity and the diverse study designs; thus, we used a narrative synthesis to report the findings.

MAIN RESULTS

A total of 25 studies were eligible, of the 1463 studies retrieved from selected databases. Twenty-two of the studies indicated a shift in social norms as a result of HIV advocacy programs, and 3 indicated a change in impact. We drew 6 lessons from these programs that may be useful for noncommunicable disease advocacy: (1) involving at-risk populations in advocacy programs, (2) working with laypersons and community members, (3) working with peer advocates and activists, (4) targeting specific age groups and asking support from celebrities, (5) targeting several, but specific, risk factors, and (6) using an evidence-based approach through formative research. Author conclusions. HIV advocacy programs have been effective in shifting social norms and facilitating a change in impact.

PUBLIC HEALTH IMPLICATIONS

The lessons learned from these effective programs could be used to improve the design and implementation of future noncommunicable disease advocacy programs.

Identifying Key Drivers of the Impact of an HIV Cure Intervention in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

It is unknown what properties would be required to make an intervention in low income countries that can eradicate or control human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) without antiretroviral therapy (ART) cost-effective.

METHODS

We used a model of HIV and ART to investigate the effect of introducing an ART-free viral suppression intervention in 2022 using Zimbabwe as an example country. We assumed that the intervention (cost: $500) would be accessible for 90% of the population, be given to those receiving effective ART, have sufficient efficacy to allow ART interruption in 95%, with a rate of viral rebound of 5% per year in the first 3 months, and a 50% decline in rate with each successive year.

RESULTS

An ART-free viral suppression intervention with these properties would result in >0.53 million disability-adjusted-life-years averted over 2022-2042, with a reduction in HIV program costs of $300 million (8.7% saving). An intervention of this efficacy costing anything up to $1400 is likely to be cost-effective in this setting.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions aimed at curing HIV infection have the potential to improve overall disease burden and to reduce costs. Given the effectiveness and cost of ART, such interventions would have to be inexpensive and highly effective.

Maximising HIV prevention by balancing the opportunities of today with the promises of tomorrow: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Many ways of preventing HIV infection have been proposed and more are being developed. We sought to construct a strategic approach to HIV prevention that would use limited resources to achieve the greatest possible prevention impact through the use of interventions available today and in the coming years.

METHODS

We developed a deterministic compartmental model of heterosexual HIV transmission in South Africa and formed assumptions about the costs and effects of a range of interventions, encompassing the further scale-up of existing interventions (promoting condom use, male circumcision, early antiretroviral therapy [ART] initiation for all [including increased HIV testing and counselling activities], and oral pre-exposure prophylaxis [PrEP]), the introduction of new interventions in the medium term (offering intravaginal rings, long-acting injectable antiretroviral drugs) and long term (vaccine, broadly neutralising antibodies [bNAbs]). We examined how available resources could be allocated across these interventions to achieve maximum impact, and assessed how this would be affected by the failure of the interventions to be developed or scaled up.

FINDINGS

If all interventions are available, the optimum mix would place great emphasis on the following: scale-up of male circumcision and early ART initiation with outreach testing, as these are available immediately and assumed to be low cost and highly efficacious; intravaginal rings targeted to sex workers; and vaccines, as these can achieve a large effect if scaled up even if imperfectly efficacious. The optimum mix would rely less on longer term developments, such as long-acting antiretroviral drugs and bNAbs, unless the costs of these reduced. However, if impossible to scale up existing interventions to the extent assumed, emphasis on oral PrEP, intravaginal rings, and long-acting antiretroviral drugs would increase. The long-term effect on the epidemic is most affected by scale-up of existing interventions and the successful development of a vaccine.

INTERPRETATION

With current information, a strategic approach in which limited resources are used to maximise prevention impact would focus on strengthening the scale-up of existing interventions, while pursuing a workable vaccine and developing other approaches that can be used if further scale-up of existing interventions is limited.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Declining HIV Prevalence in Parallel With Safer Sex Behaviors in Burkina Faso: Evidence From Surveillance and Population-Based Surveys

HIV prevalence among pregnant women ages 15–49 declined from 7.1% to 2.0% in urban areas between 1998 and 2014, and from 2.0% to 0.5% in rural areas between 2003 and 2014; similar declines were reported in the Demographic and Health Surveys. During the same time period, individuals reported safer sex behaviors, including delayed sexual debut and reduced number of sex partners among youth, as well as increased condom use at last sex with nonmarital partners among men and women ages 15–49.

Objective:

To investigate trends in HIV prevalence and changes in reported sexual behaviors between 1998 and 2014 in Burkina Faso.

Methods:

We obtained data on HIV prevalence from antenatal care (ANC) surveillance sites (N = 9) that were consistently included in surveillance between 1998 and 2014. We also analyzed data on HIV prevalence and reported sex behaviors from 3 population-based surveys from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), conducted in 1998–99, 2003, and 2010. Sex behavior indicators comprised never-married youth who have never had sex; sex with more than 1 partner; sex with a nonmarital, non-cohabiting partner; condom use at last sex with a nonmarital, non-cohabiting partner; and sex before age 15. We calculated survey-specific HIV prevalence with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and used the chi-square test or chi-square test for trend to compare HIV prevalence across survey years and to analyze trends in reported sex behaviors.

Results:

HIV prevalence among pregnant women ages 15–49 decreased by 72% in urban areas, from 7.1% in 1998 to 2.0% in 2014, and by 75% in rural areas, from 2.0% in 2003 to 0.5% in 2014. HIV declined most in younger age groups, which is a good reflection of recent incidence, with declines of 55% among 15–19-year-olds, 72% among 20–24-year-olds, 40% among 25–29-year-olds, and 7% among those ≥30 years old (considering urban and rural data combined). Data reported in the DHS corroborated these declines in HIV prevalence: between 2003 and 2010, HIV prevalence dropped significantly—by 89% among girls ages 15–19, from 0.9% (95% CI, 0.2 to 1.6) to 0.1% (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.4), and by 78% among young women ages 20–24, from 1.8% (95% CI, 1.6 to 3.0) to 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.7). During the same time period, people reported safer sex behaviors. For example, significantly higher percentages of never-married youth reported they had never had sex, lower percentages of sexually active youth reported multiple sex partners, and lower percentages of youth reported having sex before age 15. In addition, the percentage of men ages 20–49 reporting sex with a nonmarital, non-cohabiting partner declined significantly, while condom use at last sex with such a partner increased significantly among both men and women ages 15–49.

Conclusions:

Both ANC surveillance and population-based surveys report sharp declines in HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso between 1998 and 2014, accompanied by improvements in reported risky sex behaviors.

Getting the balance right: Scaling-up treatment and prevention

The goals of the international response to control the HIV epidemic include high antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage with HIV viral suppression, as well as reduction of new infections. ART use at individual and population levels reduces HIV morbidity and mortality and likely reduces HIV incidence. HIV viral suppression requires high levels of ART adherence, which necessitates support through behavioural and structural interventions to optimise effectiveness of the use of ART for prevention. Many people living with HIV remain unaware that they are HIV-infected, and HIV transmission risk is high during early infection, therefore ART expansion should be accompanied by other interventions in order to achieve the promise of treatment for prevention. Biomedical and behavioural prevention efforts focused on HIV-uninfected individuals at substantial risk of HIV acquisition are also needed to control the epidemic. Maintaining prevention programming is essential during the scale up of ART to reduce HIV transmission.

HIV Infection and AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Status, Challenges and Opportunities

Global trends in HIV infection demonstrate an overall increase in HIV prevalence and substantial declines in AIDS related deaths largely attributable to the survival benefits of antiretroviral treatment. Sub-Saharan Africa carries a disproportionate burden of HIV, accounting for more than 70% of the global burden of infection. Success in HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa has the potential to impact on the global burden of HIV. Notwithstanding substantial progress in scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART), sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 74% of the 1.5 million AIDS related deaths in 2013. Of the estimated 6000 new infections that occur globally each day, two out of three are in sub-Saharan Africa with young women continuing to bear a disproportionate burden. Adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years have up to eight fold higher rates of HIV infection compared to their male peers. There remains a gap in women initiated HIV prevention technologies especially for women who are unable to negotiate the current HIV prevention options of abstinence, behavior change, condoms and medical male circumcision or early treatment initiation in their relationships. The possibility of an AIDS free generation cannot be realized unless we are able to prevent HIV infection in young women. This review will focus on the epidemiology of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa, key drivers of the continued high incidence, mortality rates and priorities for altering current epidemic trajectory in the region. Strategies for optimizing the use of existing and increasingly limited resources are included.

Epidemiological Trends for HIV in Southern Africa: Implications for Reaching the Elimination Targets

Southern Africa is the region worst affected by HIV in the world and accounts for one third of the global burden of HIV. Achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target by 2020 and ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 depend on success in this region. We review epidemiological trends in each country in southern Africa with respect to the prevalence, incidence, mortality, coverage of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and TB notification rates, to better understand progress in controlling HIV and TB and to determine what needs to be done to reach the UNAIDS targets. Significant progress has been made in controlling HIV. In all countries in the region, the prevalence of HIV in people not on ART, the incidence of HIV, AIDS-related mortality and, in most countries, TB notification rates, are falling. In some countries, the risk of infection began to fall before biomedical interventions such as ART became widely available as a result of effective prevention measures or people's awareness of, and response to, the epidemic but the reasons for these declines remain uncertain. Some countries have achieved better levels of ART coverage than others, but all are in a position to reach the 2020 and 2030 targets if they accelerate the roll-out of ART and of targeted prevention efforts. Achieving the HIV treatment targets will further reduce the incidence of HIV-related TB, but efforts to control TB in HIV-negative people must be improved and strengthened.

Neglecting human ecology: The common element of global health failures

Attempts to control malaria, AIDS, and maternal mortality in Africa have been woefully inadequate. This has involved adopting an almost exclusively technical preventive approach in the context of AIDS even though emphasizing human behavior holds the most promise. But on the other hand, it has also involved abandoning highly effective technical measures, as in the case of malaria. This suggests that the failure, at root, is anthropological in nature. The common element, it is argued here, is the failure to place the human ecology resolutely above destructive ideologies. Sound public-health approaches have been spurned in favor of predetermined preventive approaches in the service of ideological aims rather than of man and the common good. This article examines the ideological forces that have ultimately driven global health policy, and proposes that a more humane anthropology would be beneficial. Lay Summary: The scourges of malaria, AIDS, and maternal mortality have persisted in Africa, even though sensible and available means of addressing these epidemics, when stressed, have met with success. The reluctance to consistently emphasize the soundest public-health approaches-whether technical or behavioral in nature-indicate that global health policy has to a large extent been improperly concerned with advancing ideological agendas. The challenge we face today is not primarily technical but philosophical; the healing professions would perform a service by cultivating a higher view of man and an appreciation for objective moral truths that protect him.