Water supply interruptions and suspected cholera incidence: a time-series regression in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Effectiveness of wetlands as reservoirs for integrated water resource management in the Ruzizi plain based on water evaluation and planning (WEAP) approach for a climate-resilient future in eastern D.R. Congo

It is widely predicted that climate change's adverse effects will intensify in the future, and along with inadequate agricultural practices, settlement development, and other anthropic activities, could contribute to rapid wetland degradation and thus exert significant negative effects on local communities. This study sought to develop an approach based on the Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) in the Ruzizi Plain, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where adverse effects of the climate change are increasingly recurrent. Initially, we analyzed the trends of climate data for the last three decades (1990-2022). Subsequently, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) approach was employed on two contrasting watersheds to estimate current and future water demands in the region and how local wetlands could serve as reservoirs to meeting water demands. Results indicate that the Ruzizi Plain is facing escalating water challenges owing to climate change, rapid population growth, and evolving land-use patterns. These factors are expected to affect water quality and quantity, and thus, increase pressure on wetland ecosystems. The analysis of past data shows recurrence of dry years (SPI ≤  - 1.5), reduced daily low-intensity rainfall (Pmm < 10 mm), and a significant increase in extreme rainfall events (Pmm ≥ 25 mm). The WEAP outcomes revealed significant variations in future water availability, demand, and potential stressors across watersheds. Cropland and livestock are the main water consumers in rural wetlands, while households, cropland (at a lesser extent), and other urban uses exert significant water demands on wetlands located in urban environments. Of three test scenarios, the one presenting wetlands as water reservoirs seemed promising than those considered optimal (based on policies regulating water use) and rational (stationary inputs but with a decrease in daily allocation). These findings highlight the impact of climate change in the Ruzizi plain, emphasizing the urgency of implementing adaptive measures. This study advocates for the necessity of the IWRM approach to enhance water resilience, fostering sustainable development and wetland preservation under changing climate.

Impact of a multi-pronged cholera intervention in an endemic setting

Cholera is a bacterial water-borne diarrheal disease transmitted via the fecal-oral route that causes high morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. It is preventable with vaccination, and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) improvements. However, the impact of vaccination in endemic settings remains unclear. Cholera is endemic in the city of Kalemie, on the shore of Lake Tanganyika, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where both seasonal mobility and the lake, a potential environmental reservoir, may promote transmission. Kalemie received a vaccination campaign and WASH improvements in 2013-2016. We assessed the impact of this intervention to inform future control strategies in endemic settings. We fit compartmental models considering seasonal mobility and environmentally-based transmission. We estimated the number of cases the intervention avoided, and the relative contributions of the elements promoting local cholera transmission. We estimated the intervention avoided 5,259 cases (95% credible interval: 1,576.6-11,337.8) over 118 weeks. Transmission did not rely on seasonal mobility and was primarily environmentally-driven. Removing environmental exposure or contamination could control local transmission. Repeated environmental exposure could maintain high population immunity and decrease the impact of vaccination in similar endemic areas. Addressing environmental exposure and contamination should be the primary target of interventions in such settings.

Modelling techniques in cholera epidemiology: A systematic and critical review

Diverse modelling techniques in cholera epidemiology have been developed and used to (1) study its transmission dynamics, (2) predict and manage cholera outbreaks, and (3) assess the impact of various control and mitigation measures. In this study, we carry out a critical and systematic review of various approaches used for modelling the dynamics of cholera. Also, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each modelling approach. A systematic search of articles was conducted in Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, and Taylor & Francis. Eligible studies were those concerned with the dynamics of cholera excluding studies focused on models for cholera transmission in animals, socio-economic factors, and genetic & molecular related studies. A total of 476 peer-reviewed articles met the inclusion criteria, with about 40% (32%) of the studies carried out in Asia (Africa). About 52%, 21%, and 9%, of the studies, were based on compartmental (e.g., SIRB), statistical (time series and regression), and spatial (spatiotemporal clustering) models, respectively, while the rest of the analysed studies used other modelling approaches such as network, machine learning and artificial intelligence, Bayesian, and agent-based approaches. Cholera modelling studies that incorporate vector/housefly transmission of the pathogen are scarce and a small portion of researchers (3.99%) considers the estimation of key epidemiological parameters. Vaccination only platform was utilized as a control measure in more than half (58%) of the studies. Research productivity in cholera epidemiological modelling studies have increased in recent years, but authors used diverse range of models. Future models should consider incorporating vector/housefly transmission of the pathogen and on the estimation of key epidemiological parameters for the transmission of cholera dynamics.

Improved water supply infrastructure to reduce acute diarrhoeal diseases and cholera in Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo: Results and lessons learned from a pragmatic trial

BACKGROUND

Safely managed drinking water is critical to prevent diarrhoeal diseases, including cholera, but evidence on the effectiveness of piped water supply in reducing these diseases in low-income and complex emergency settings remains scarce.

METHODS

We conducted a trial of water supply infrastructure improvements in Uvira (DRC). Our primary objective was to estimate the relationship between a composite index of water service quality and the monthly number of suspected cholera cases admitted to treatment facilities and, as a secondary analysis, the number of cases confirmed by rapid diagnostic tests. Other exposures included the quantity of supplied water and service continuity. We used Poisson generalised linear models with generalised estimating equations to estimate incidence rate ratios.

FINDINGS

Associations between suspected cholera incidence and water service quality (RR 0·86, 95% CI 0·73-1·01), quantity (RR 0·80, 95% CI 0·62-1·02) and continuity (RR 0·81, 95% CI 0·77-0·86) were estimated. The magnitudes of the associations were similar between confirmed cholera incidence and water service quality (RR 0·84, 95% CI 0·73-0·97), quantity (RR 0·76, 95% CI 0·61-0·94) and continuity (RR 0·75, 95% CI 0·69-0·81). These results suggest that an additional 5 L/user/day or 1.2 hour per day of water production could reduce confirmed cholera by 24% (95% CI 6-39%) and 25% (95% CI 19-31%), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Ensuring a sufficient and continuous piped water supply may substantially reduce the burden of endemic cholera and diarrhoeal diseases but evaluating this rigorously is challenging. Pragmatic strategies are needed for public health research on complex interventions in protracted emergency settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial is registered in ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT02928341. https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02928341.

Drivers of the dynamics of the spread of cholera in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2000-2018: An eco-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

The dynamics of the spread of cholera epidemics in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), from east to west and within western DRC, have been extensively studied. However, the drivers of these spread processes remain unclear. We therefore sought to better understand the factors associated with these spread dynamics and their potential underlying mechanisms.

METHODS

In this eco-epidemiological study, we focused on the spread processes of cholera epidemics originating from the shores of Lake Kivu, involving the areas bordering Lake Kivu, the areas surrounding the lake areas, and the areas out of endemic eastern DRC (eastern and western non-endemic provinces). Over the period 2000-2018, we collected data on suspected cholera cases, and a set of several variables including types of conflicts, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs), population density, transportation network density, and accessibility indicators. Using multivariate ordinal logistic regression models, we identified factors associated with the spread of cholera outside the endemic eastern DRC. We performed multivariate Vector Auto Regressive models to analyze potential underlying mechanisms involving the factors associated with these spread dynamics. Finally, we classified the affected health zones using hierarchical ascendant classification based on principal component analysis (PCA).

FINDINGS

The increase in the number of suspected cholera cases, the exacerbation of conflict events, and the number of IDPs in eastern endemic areas were associated with an increased risk of cholera spreading outside the endemic eastern provinces. We found that the increase in suspected cholera cases was influenced by the increase in battles at lag of 4 weeks, which were influenced by the violence against civilians with a 1-week lag. The violent conflict events influenced the increase in the number of IDPs 4 to 6 weeks later. Other influences and uni- or bidirectional causal links were observed between violent and non-violent conflicts, and between conflicts and IDPs. Hierarchical clustering on PCA identified three categories of affected health zones: densely populated urban areas with few but large and longer epidemics; moderately and accessible areas with more but small epidemics; less populated and less accessible areas with more and larger epidemics.

CONCLUSION

Our findings argue for monitoring conflict dynamics to predict the risk of geographic expansion of cholera in the DRC. They also suggest areas where interventions should be appropriately focused to build their resilience to the disease.

Facilitating hand hygiene in displacement camps during the COVID-19 pandemic: a qualitative assessment of a novel handwashing stand and hygiene promotion package

BACKGROUND

Handwashing with soap is critical for the prevention of diarrhoeal diseases and outbreak related diseases, including interrupting the transmission of COVID-19. People living in large displacement settings are particularly vulnerable to such outbreaks, however, practicing handwashing is typically challenging in these contexts.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative assessment of the implementation of a combined intervention to facilitate handwashing behaviour in displacement camps and in surrounding communities in Bangladesh, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo during the COVID-19 pandemic. The intervention comprised a 'hardware' infrastructural component (provision of the Oxfam Handwashing Station) and a 'software' hygiene promotion package (Mum's Magic Hands). We used programmatic logbooks, interviews with implementation staff and focus group discussions with crisis-affected populations to assess the use, feasibility and acceptability of the intervention.

RESULTS

Both components of the intervention were viewed as novel and appealing by implementing staff and crisis-affected populations across the study sites. The acceptability of the handwashing station could be improved by redesigning the tap and legs, exploring local supply chain options, and by providing a greater number of facilities. The implementation of the hygiene promotion package varied substantially by country making it challenging to evaluate and compare. A greater focus on community engagement could address misconceptions, barriers related to the intuitiveness of the handwashing station design, and willingness to participate in the hygiene promotion component.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of a 'hardware' and 'software' intervention in these settings appeared to facilitate both access and use of handwashing facilities. The acceptability of the combined intervention was partially because a great deal of effort had been put into their design. However, even when delivering well-designed interventions, there are many contextual aspects that need to be considered, as well as unintended consequences which can affect the acceptability of an intervention.

Association between Conflict and Cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Cholera outbreaks contribute substantially to illness and death in low- and middle-income countries. Cholera outbreaks are associated with several social and environmental risk factors, and extreme conditions can act as catalysts. A social extreme known to be associated with infectious disease outbreaks is conflict, causing disruption to services, loss of income, and displacement. To determine the extent of this association, we used the self-controlled case-series method and found that conflict increased the risk for cholera in Nigeria by 3.6 times and in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by 2.6 times. We also found that 19.7% of cholera outbreaks in Nigeria and 12.3% of outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo were attributable to conflict. Our results highlight the value of providing rapid and sufficient assistance during conflict-associated cholera outbreaks and working toward conflict resolution and addressing preexisting vulnerabilities, such as poverty and access to healthcare.

Modalities and preferred routes of geographic spread of cholera from endemic areas in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

Cholera is endemic along the Great Lakes Region, in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). From these endemic areas, also under perpetual conflicts, outbreaks spread to other areas. However, the main routes of propagation remain unclear. This research aimed to explore the modalities and likely main routes of geographic spread of cholera from endemic areas in eastern DRC. We used historical reconstruction of major outbreak expansions of cholera since its introduction in eastern DRC, maps of distribution and spatiotemporal cluster detection analyses of cholera data from passive surveillance (2000–2017) to describe the spread dynamics of cholera from eastern DRC. Four modalities of geographic spread and their likely main routes from the source areas of epidemics to other areas were identified: in endemic eastern provinces, and in non-endemic provinces of eastern, central and western DRC. Using non-parametric statistics, we found that the higher the number of conflict events reported in eastern DRC, the greater the geographic spread of cholera across the country. The present study revealed that the dynamics of the spread of cholera follow a fairly well-defined spatial logic and can therefore be predicted.

The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria

Nigeria currently reports the second highest number of cholera cases in Africa, with numerous socioeconomic and environmental risk factors. Less investigated are the role of extreme events, despite recent work showing their potential importance. To address this gap, we used a machine learning approach to understand the risks and thresholds for cholera outbreaks and extreme events, taking into consideration pre-existing vulnerabilities. We estimated time varying reproductive number (R) from cholera incidence in Nigeria and used a machine learning approach to evaluate its association with extreme events (conflict, flood, drought) and pre-existing vulnerabilities (poverty, sanitation, healthcare). We then created a traffic-light system for cholera outbreak risk, using three hypothetical traffic-light scenarios (Red, Amber and Green) and used this to predict R. The system highlighted potential extreme events and socioeconomic thresholds for outbreaks to occur. We found that reducing poverty and increasing access to sanitation lessened vulnerability to increased cholera risk caused by extreme events (monthly conflicts and the Palmers Drought Severity Index). The main limitation is the underreporting of cholera globally and the potential number of cholera cases missed in the data used here. Increasing access to sanitation and decreasing poverty reduced the impact of extreme events in terms of cholera outbreak risk. The results here therefore add further evidence of the need for sustainable development for disaster prevention and mitigation and to improve health and quality of life.

Chlorine taste can increase simulated exposure to both fecal contamination and disinfection byproducts in water supplies

Expanding drinking water chlorination could substantially reduce the burden of disease in low- and middle-income countries, but the taste of chlorinated water often impedes adoption. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the effect of people's choice to accept or reject drinking water based on chlorine taste and their subsequent exposure to E. coli and trihalomethanes, a class of disinfection byproduct (DBP). The simulation used empirical data from Dhaka, Bangladesh, a megacity with endemic waterborne disease. We drew on published taste acceptability thresholds from Dhaka residents, measured residual chlorine and thermotolerant E. coli inactivation following the addition of six chlorine doses (0.25-3.0 mg/L as Cl₂) to untreated piped water samples from 100 locations, and analyzed trihalomethane formation in 54 samples. A dose of 0.5 mg/L, 75% lower than the 2 mg/L dose typically recommended for household chlorination of low-turbidity waters, minimized overall exposure to E. coli. Doses of 1-2 mg/L maximized overall exposure to trihalomethanes. Accounting for chlorine taste aversion indicates that microbiological exposure increases and DBP exposure decreases above certain doses as a higher proportion of people reject chlorinated water in favor of untreated water. Taken together with findings from other modeling analyses, empirical studies, and field trials, our results suggest that taste acceptability should be a critical consideration in establishing chlorination dosing guidelines. Particularly when chlorination is first implemented in water supplies with low chlorine demand, lower doses than those generally recommended for household water treatment can help avoid taste-related objections while still meaningfully reducing contaminant exposure.

Effective Demand for In-Line Chlorination Bundled with Rental Housing in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Delivering safe water in cities of lower- and middle-income countries remains elusive even where there is a piped supply. Passive, in-line chlorination upstream of the point of water collection reduces child diarrhea without the behavior change required for point-of-use water treatment products or manual chlorine dispensers. We conducted a price experiment to measure effective demand (willingness and ability to pay) for an in-line chlorination service using tablet chlorinators among 196 landlords of rental housing properties in Dhaka, Bangladesh. We offered a 12-month subscription using Becker-DeGroot-Marschak auctions with real money payments. The service consistently delivered chlorinated water and satisfied tenants. Landlords' effective demand for in-line chlorination was similar to or greater than that for point-of-use treatment products and manual chlorine dispensers previously documented among Dhaka households. Over the service period, landlords renting to low-income households had lower effective demand than those renting to middle-income households despite similar initial rates of payment across both groups. Making in-line chlorination financially viable for the lowest-income consumers would likely require service cost reductions, subsidies, or both. Our findings suggest that even revealed preference experiments may overestimate the effective demand needed to sustain water supply improvements, especially in low-income populations, if they only measure demand once.

Monitoring Drinking Water Quality in Nationally Representative Household Surveys in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Cross-Sectional Analysis of 27 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys 2014-2020

BACKGROUND

The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set an ambitious new benchmark for safely managed drinking water services (SMDWs), but many countries lack national data on the availability and quality of drinking water.

OBJECTIVES

We quantified the availability and microbiological quality of drinking water, monitored SMDWs, and examined risk factors for Escherichia coli (E. coli) contamination in 27 low-and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

A new water quality module for household surveys was implemented in 27 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys. Teams used portable equipment to measure E. coli at the point of collection (PoC, n=61,170) and at the point of use (PoU, n=64,900) and asked respondents about the availability and accessibility of drinking water. Households were classified as having SMDW services if they used an improved water source that was free of E. coli contamination at PoC, accessible on premises, and available when needed. Compliance with individual SMDW criteria was also assessed. Modified Poisson regression was used to explore household and community risk factors for E. coli contamination.

RESULTS

E. coli was commonly detected at the PoC (range 16-90%) and was more likely at the PoU (range 19-99%). On average, 84% of households used an improved drinking water source, and 31% met all of the SMDW criteria. E. coli contamination was the primary reason SMDW criteria were not met (15 of 27 countries). The prevalence of E. coli in PoC samples was lower among households using improved water sources [risk ratio (RR)=0.74; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.64, 0.85] but not for households with water accessible on premises (RR=0.99; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.05) or available when needed (RR=0.95; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.02). E. coli contamination of PoU samples was less common for households in the richest vs. poorest wealth quintile (RR=0.70; 95% CI: 0.55, 0.88) and in communities with high (>75%) improved sanitation coverage (RR=0.94; 95% CI: 0.90, 0.97). Livestock ownership (RR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.13), rural vs. urban residence (RR=1.10; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.16), and wet vs. dry season sampling (RR=1.07; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.15) were positively associated with contamination at the PoU.

DISCUSSION

Cross-sectional water quality data can be collected in household surveys and can be used to assess inequalities in service levels, to track the SDG indicator of SMDWs, and to examine risk factors for contamination. There is an urgent need for better risk management to reduce widespread exposure to fecal contamination through drinking water services in LMICs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8459.

Microbial water quality improvement associated with transitioning from intermittent to continuous water supply in Nagpur, India

Nearly half a billion people living in Indian cities receive their drinking water from an intermittent water supply (IWS), which can be associated with degraded water quality and risk of waterborne disease. The municipal water supply in Nagpur, India is transitioning from intermittent to continuous supply in phases. We conducted cross-sectional sampling to compare microbial water quality under IWS and continuous water supply (CWS) in Nagpur. In 2015 and 2017, we collected 146 grab samples and 90 large-volume dead-end ultrafiltration (DEUF) samples (total volume: 6,925 liters). In addition to measuring traditional water quality parameters, we also assayed DEUF samples by droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) for waterborne pathogen gene targets. At household taps served by IWS, we detected targets from enterotoxigenic E. coli, Shigella spp./enteroinvasive E. coli, norovirus GI and GII, adenovirus A-F, Cryptosporidium spp., and Giardia duodenalis. We observed a significant increase in the proportion of grab samples positive for culturable E. coli (p = 0.0007) and DEUF concentrates positive for waterborne pathogen gene targets (p = 0.0098) at household taps served by IWS compared to those served by CWS. IWS continues to be associated with fecal contamination, and, in this study, with increased prevalence of molecular evidence of waterborne pathogens. These findings add mounting evidence that, despite the presence of piped on premise infrastructure, IWS is less likely to meet the requirements for safely-managed drinking water as defined by the Sustainable Development Goals. Importantly, these findings demonstrate the transition from IWS to CWS in Nagpur is yielding meaningful improvements in microbial water quality.

The impact of improved water supply on cholera and diarrhoeal diseases in Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo: a protocol for a pragmatic stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial and economic evaluation

INTRODUCTION

Diarrhoeal disease remains a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Cholera alone is estimated to cause 95,000 deaths per year, most of which occur in endemic settings with inadequate water access. Whilst a global strategy to eliminate cholera by 2030 calls for investment in improved drinking water services, there is limited rigorous evidence for the impact of improved water supply on endemic cholera transmission in low-income urban settings. Our protocol is designed to deliver a pragmatic health impact evaluation of a large-scale water supply intervention in Uvira (Democratic Republic of the Congo), a cholera transmission hotspot.

METHODS/DESIGN

A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial (SW-CRT) was designed to evaluate the impact of a large-scale drinking water supply intervention on cholera incidence among the 280,000 inhabitants of Uvira. The city was divided into 16 clusters, where new community and household taps will be installed following a randomised sequence over a transition period of up to 8 weeks in each cluster. The primary trial outcomes are the monthly incidence of "confirmed" cholera cases (patients testing positive by rapid detection kit) and of "suspected" cholera cases (patients admitted to the cholera treatment centre). Concurrent process and economic evaluations will provide further information on the context, costs, and efficiency of the intervention.

DISCUSSION

In this protocol, we describe a pragmatic approach to conducting rigorous research to assess the impacts of a complex water supply intervention on severe diarrhoeal disease and cholera in an unstable, low-resource setting representative of cholera-affected areas. In particular, we discuss a series of pre-identified risks and linked mitigation strategies as well as the value of combining different data collection methods and preparation of multiple analysis scenarios to account for possible deviations from the protocol. The study described here has the potential to provide robust evidence to support more effective cholera control in challenging, high-burden settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial is registered on clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT02928341 , 10th October 2016) and has received ethics approval from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (8913, 10603) and from the Ethics Committee from the School of Public Health, University of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (ESP/CE/088/2015).

Successive epidemic waves of cholera in South Sudan between 2014 and 2017: a descriptive epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Between 2014 and 2017, successive cholera epidemics occurred in South Sudan within the context of civil war, population displacement, flooding, and drought. We aim to describe the spatiotemporal and molecular features of the three distinct epidemic waves and explore the role of vaccination campaigns, precipitation, and population movement in shaping cholera spread in this complex setting.

METHODS

In this descriptive epidemiological study, we analysed cholera linelist data to describe the spatiotemporal progression of the epidemics. We placed whole-genome sequence data from pandemic Vibrio cholerae collected throughout these epidemics into the global phylogenetic context. Using whole-genome sequence data in combination with other molecular attributes, we characterise the relatedness of strains circulating in each wave and the region. We investigated the association of rainfall and the instantaneous basic reproduction number using distributed lag non-linear models, compared county-level attack rates between those with early and late reactive vaccination campaigns, and explored the consistency of the spatial patterns of displacement and suspected cholera case reports.

FINDINGS

The 2014 (6389 cases) and 2015 (1818 cases) cholera epidemics in South Sudan remained spatially limited whereas the 2016-17 epidemic (20 438 cases) spread among settlements along the Nile river. Initial cases of each epidemic were reported in or around Juba soon after the start of the rainy season, but we found no evidence that rainfall modulated transmission during each epidemic. All isolates analysed had similar genotypic and phenotypic characteristics, closely related to sequences from Uganda and Democratic Republic of the Congo. Large-scale population movements between counties of South Sudan with cholera outbreaks were consistent with the spatial distribution of cases. 21 of 26 vaccination campaigns occurred during or after the county-level epidemic peak. Counties vaccinated on or after the peak incidence week had 2·2 times (95% CI 2·1-2·3) higher attack rates than those where vaccination occurred before the peak.

INTERPRETATION

Pandemic V cholerae of the same clonal origin was isolated throughout the study period despite interepidemic periods of no reported cases. Although the complex emergency in South Sudan probably shaped some of the observed spatial and temporal patterns of cases, the full scope of transmission determinants remains unclear. Timely and well targeted use of vaccines can reduce the burden of cholera; however, rapid vaccine deployment in complex emergencies remains challenging.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Distribution of hygiene kits during a cholera outbreak in Kasaï-Oriental, Democratic Republic of Congo: a process evaluation

Background

Cholera remains a leading cause of infectious disease outbreaks globally, and a major public health threat in complex emergencies. Hygiene kits distributed to cholera case-households have previously shown an effect in reducing cholera incidence and are recommended by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) for distribution to admitted patients and accompanying household members upon admission to health care facilities (HCFs).

Methods

This process evaluation documented the implementation, participant response and context of hygiene kit distribution by MSF during a 2018 cholera outbreak in Kasaï-Oriental, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The study population comprised key informant interviews with seven MSF staff, 17 staff from other organisations and a random sample of 27 hygiene kit recipients. Structured observations were conducted of hygiene kit demonstrations and health promotion, and programme reports were analysed to triangulate data.

Results and conclusions

Between Week (W) 28-48 of the 2018 cholera outbreak in Kasaï-Oriental, there were 667 suspected cholera cases with a 5% case fatality rate (CFR). Across seven HCFs supported by MSF, 196 patients were admitted with suspected cholera between W43-W47 and hygiene kit were provided to patients upon admission and health promotion at the HCF was conducted to accompanying household contacts 5-6 times per day. Distribution of hygiene kits was limited and only 52% of admitted suspected cholera cases received a hygiene kit. The delay of the overall response, delayed supply and insufficient quantities of hygiene kits available limited the coverage and utility of the hygiene kits, and may have diminished the effectiveness of the intervention. The integration of a WASH intervention for cholera control at the point of patient admission is a growing trend and promising intervention for case-targeted cholera responses. However, the barriers identified in this study warrant consideration in subsequent cholera responses and further research is required to identify ways to improve implementation and delivery of this intervention.

Prevention and control of cholera with household and community water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions: A scoping review of current international guidelines

INTRODUCTION

Cholera remains a frequent cause of outbreaks globally, particularly in areas with inadequate water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services. Cholera is spread through faecal-oral routes, and studies demonstrate that ingestion of Vibrio cholerae occurs from consuming contaminated food and water, contact with cholera cases and transmission from contaminated environmental point sources. WASH guidelines recommending interventions for the prevention and control of cholera are numerous and vary considerably in their recommendations. To date, there has been no review of practice guidelines used in cholera prevention and control programmes.

METHODS

We systematically searched international agency websites to identify WASH intervention guidelines used in cholera programmes in endemic and epidemic settings. Recommendations listed in the guidelines were extracted, categorised and analysed. Analysis was based on consistency, concordance and recommendations were classified on the basis of whether the interventions targeted within-household or community-level transmission.

RESULTS

Eight international guidelines were included in this review: three by non-governmental organisations (NGOs), one from a non-profit organisation (NPO), three from multilateral organisations and one from a research institution. There were 95 distinct recommendations identified, and concordance among guidelines was poor to fair. All categories of WASH interventions were featured in the guidelines. The majority of recommendations targeted community-level transmission (45%), 35% targeted within-household transmission and 20% both.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent evidence suggests that interventions for effective cholera control and response to epidemics should focus on case-centred approaches and within-household transmission. Guidelines did consistently propose interventions targeting transmission within households. However, the majority of recommendations listed in guidelines targeted community-level transmission and tended to be more focused on preventing contamination of the environment by cases or recurrent outbreaks, and the level of service required to interrupt community-level transmission was often not specified. The guidelines in current use were varied and interpretation may be difficult when conflicting recommendations are provided. Future editions of guidelines should reflect on the inclusion of evidence-based approaches, cholera transmission models and resource-efficient strategies.

Broad approaches to cholera control in Asia: Water, sanitation and handwashing

Cholera has been eliminated as a public health problem in high-income countries that have implemented sanitation system separating the community's fecal waste from their drinking water and food supply. These expensive, highly-engineered systems, first developed in London over 150 years ago, have not reached low-income high-risk communities across Asia. Barriers to their implementation in communities at highest risk for cholera include the high capital and operating costs for this technological approach, limited capacity and perverse incentives of local governments, and a decreasing availability of water. Interim solutions including household level water treatment, constructing latrines and handwashing promotion have only marginally reduced the risk of cholera and other fecally transmitted diseases. Increased research to develop and policy flexibility to implement a new generation of solutions that are designed specifically to address the physical, financial and political constraints of low-income communities offers the best prospect for reducing the burden of cholera across Asia.

Recurrent Cholera Outbreaks, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2008-2017

In 2017, the exacerbation of an ongoing countrywide cholera outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo resulted in >53,000 reported cases and 1,145 deaths. To guide control measures, we analyzed the characteristics of cholera epidemiology in DRC on the basis of surveillance and cholera treatment center data for 2008-2017. The 2017 nationwide outbreak resulted from 3 distinct mechanisms: considerable increases in the number of cases in cholera-endemic areas, so-called hot spots, around the Great Lakes in eastern DRC; recurrent outbreaks progressing downstream along the Congo River; and spread along Congo River branches to areas that had been cholera-free for more than a decade. Case-fatality rates were higher in nonendemic areas and in the early phases of the outbreaks, possibly reflecting low levels of immunity and less appropriate prevention and treatment. Targeted use of oral cholera vaccine, soon after initial cases are diagnosed, could contribute to lower case-fatality rates.

Prevalence of water-related diseases and groundwater (drinking-water) contamination in the suburban municipality of Mont Ngafula, Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo)

An epidemiological survey conducted among users of water points and medical institutions in the N'djili Kilambu neighborhood of Kinshasa in Democratic Republic of the Congo, indicates that waterborne diseases have already affected more than 60% of the patients admitted to local clinics between 2013 and 2017. In order to raise public and political awareness about this hazardous health issue resulting from the lack of safely managed sanitation systems, this study investigates the microbial quality of drinking water from local water resources. Water samples were collected from nine wells and streams used as drinking sources, and analyzed for Fecal Indicator Bacteria (FIB), including Escherichia coli, Enterococcus, and Total Coliforms. Physicochemical parameters (pH, electrical conductivity, O₂, and soluble ions (Na⁺, K⁺, PO₄^3-, SO₄^2-, NO₃^-, NO₂^-) were also analyzed. Except for NO₃^- and NO₂^-, the average concentrations of the physicochemical parameters and dissolved ions generally meet the guidelines for drinking/domestic water quality. By contrast, the results reveal high levels of FIB in the water samples collected during both dry and wet seasons. The contamination is significantly higher during the wet season compared to dry season, due to increased runoff, open defecation practices, and more frequent overflow of onsite sanitation systems and septic tanks.

Confirmation of cholera by rapid diagnostic test amongst patients admitted to the cholera treatment centre in Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo

INTRODUCTION

Cholera is endemic in the Eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 1978, and Uvira in South-Kivu has been reporting suspected cholera cases nearly every week for over a decade. The clinical case definition for suspected cholera is relatively non-specific, and cases are rarely confirmed by laboratory methods, especially in endemic settings. This may lead to over-estimation of cholera cases and limit effective public health responses.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Between April 2016 and November 2017, 69% of the 2,059 patients admitted to the Uvira Cholera Treatment Centre (CTC) were tested for cholera with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Of those admitted as suspected cholera cases, only 40% tested positive for cholera, equivalent to an estimated annual incidence of suspected/confirmed cholera in Uvira of 43.8 and 16.3 cases per 10,000 inhabitants respectively. A multivariable logistic regression indicates that boys aged 2 to 4 years, girls aged 5 to 15 years and adult men are respectively 1.9, 2.1 and 1.8 times more likely to test positive than adult women. On the contrary, boys under 2 are 10 times less likely to test positive. The odds of testing positive also increase as weekly admissions to the CTC rise, with up to a 5-fold increase observed during the weeks with the highest numbers of admissions compared to the lowest ones. Other predictors of cholera confirmation include duration of stay at the CTC, clinical outcome of admission, lower weekly rainfall and area of residence in Uvira, with the northern part of town having the highest confirmation rate.

CONCLUSION

Cholera is an on-going public health problem in Uvira but the majority of suspected cases admitted to the CTC were found to be negative for cholera after RDT testing. These findings may have important implications for cholera control strategies in favour of interventions that address cholera and other diarrhoeal diseases alike.

Mapping the burden of cholera in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for control: an analysis of data across geographical scales

BACKGROUND

Cholera remains a persistent health problem in sub-Saharan Africa and worldwide. Cholera can be controlled through appropriate water and sanitation, or by oral cholera vaccination, which provides transient (∼3 years) protection, although vaccine supplies remain scarce. We aimed to map cholera burden in sub-Saharan Africa and assess how geographical targeting could lead to more efficient interventions.

METHODS

We combined information on cholera incidence in sub-Saharan Africa (excluding Djibouti and Eritrea) from 2010 to 2016 from datasets from WHO, Médecins Sans Frontières, ProMED, ReliefWeb, ministries of health, and the scientific literature. We divided the study region into 20 km × 20 km grid cells and modelled annual cholera incidence in each grid cell assuming a Poisson process adjusted for covariates and spatially correlated random effects. We combined these findings with data on population distribution to estimate the number of people living in areas of high cholera incidence (>1 case per 1000 people per year). We further estimated the reduction in cholera incidence that could be achieved by targeting cholera prevention and control interventions at areas of high cholera incidence.

FINDINGS

We included 279 datasets covering 2283 locations in our analyses. In sub-Saharan Africa (excluding Djibouti and Eritrea), a mean of 141 918 cholera cases (95% credible interval [CrI] 141 538-146 505) were reported per year. 4·0% (95% CrI 1·7-16·8) of districts, home to 87·2 million people (95% CrI 60·3 million to 118·9 million), have high cholera incidence. By focusing on the highest incidence districts first, effective targeted interventions could eliminate 50% of the region's cholera by covering 35·3 million people (95% CrI 26·3 million to 62·0 million), which is less than 4% of the total population.

INTERPRETATION

Although cholera occurs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, its highest incidence is concentrated in a small proportion of the continent. Prioritising high-risk areas could substantially increase the efficiency of cholera control programmes.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Development of a biosensor protein bullet as a fluorescent method for fast detection of Escherichia coli in drinking water

Drinking water can be exposed to different biological contaminants from the source, through the pipelines, until reaching the final consumer or industry. Some of these are pathogenic bacteria and viruses which may cause important gastrointestinal or systemic diseases. The microbiological quality of drinking water relies mainly in monitoring three indicator bacteria of faecal origin, Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecalis and Clostridium perfringens, which serve as early sentinels of potential health hazards for the population. Here we describe the analysis of three chimeric fluorescent protein bullets as biosensor candidates for fast detection of E. coli in drinking water. Two of the chimeric proteins (based on GFP-hadrurin and GFP-pb5 chimera proteins) failed with respect to specificity and/or sensitivity, but the GFP-colS4 chimera protein was able to carry out specific detection of E. coli in drinking water samples in a procedure encompassing about 8 min for final result and this biosensor protein was able to detect in a linear way between 20 and 103 CFU of this bacterium. Below 20 CFU, the system cannot differentiate presence or absence of the target bacterium. The fluorescence in this biosensor system is provided by the GFP subunit of the chimeric protein, which, in the case of the better performing sensor bullet, GFP-colS4 chimera, is covalently bound to a flexible peptide bridge and to a bacteriocin binding specifically to E. coli cells. Once bound to the target bacteria, the excitation step with 395 nm LED light causes emission of fluorescence from the GFP domain, which is amplified in a photomultiplier tube, and finally this signal is converted into an output voltage which can be associated with a CFU value and these data distributed along mobile phone networks, for example. This method, and the portable fluorimeter which has been developed for it, may contribute to reduce the analysis time for detecting E. coli presence in drinking water.

Water system unreliability and diarrhea incidence among children in Guatemala

OBJECTIVES

This article examines the effect of water system unreliability on diarrhea incidence among children aged 0-5 in Guatemala.

METHODS

We use secondary data from a nationally representative sample of 7579 children to estimate the effects of uninterrupted and interrupted water services on diarrhea incidence. The national scope of this study imposes some methodological challenges due to unobserved geographical heterogeneity. To address this issue, we estimate mixed-effects logit models that control for unobserved heterogeneity by estimating random effects of selected covariates that can vary across geographical areas (i.e. water system reliability).

RESULTS

Compared to children without access to piped water, children with uninterrupted water services have a lower probability of diarrhea incidence by approximately 33 percentage points. Conversely, there is no differential effect between children without access and those with at least one day of service interruptions in the previous month. Results also confirm negative effects of age, female gender, spanish language, and garbage disposal on diarrhea incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Public health benefits of piped water are realized through uninterrupted provision of service, not merely access. Policy implications are discussed.

Piped water supply interruptions and acute diarrhea among under-five children in Addis Ababa slums, Ethiopia: A matched case-control study

BACKGROUND

The problem of intermittent piped water supplies that exists in low- and middle-income countries is particularly severe in the slums of sub-Saharan Africa. However, little is known about whether there is deterioration of the microbiological quality of the intermittent piped water supply at a household level and whether it is a factor in reducing or increasing the occurrence of acute diarrhea among under-five children in slums of Addis Ababa. This study aimed to determine the association of intermittent piped water supplies and point-of-use (POU) contamination of household stored water by Escherichia coli (E. coli) with acute diarrhea among under-five children in slums of Addis Ababa.

METHODS

A community-based matched case-control study was conducted from November to December, 2014. Cases were defined as under-five children with acute diarrhea during the two weeks before the survey. Controls were matched by age and neighborhood with cases by individual matching. Data were collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire and E. coli analysis of water from piped water supplies and household stored water. A five-tube method of Most Probable Number (MPN)/100 ml standard procedure was used for E. coli analysis. Multivariable conditional logistic regression with 95% confidence interval (CI) was used for data analysis by controlling potential confounding effects of selected socio-demographic characteristics.

MAIN FINDINGS

During the two weeks before the survey, 87.9% of case households and 51.0% of control households had an intermittent piped water supply for an average of 4.3 days and 3.9 days, respectively. POU contamination of household stored water by E. coli was found in 83.3% of the case households, and 52.1% of the control households. In a fully adjusted model, a periodically intermittent piped water supply (adjusted matched odds ratio (adjusted mOR) = 4.8; 95% CI: 1.3-17.8), POU water contamination in household stored water by E. coli (adjusted mOR = 3.3; 95% CI: 1.1-10.1), water retrieved from water storage containers using handle-less vessels (adjusted mOR = 16.3; 95% CI: 4.4-60.1), and water retrieved by interchangeably using vessels both with and without handle (adjusted mOR = 5.4; 95% CI: 1.1-29.1) were independently associated with acute diarrhea.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that provision of continuously available piped water supplies and education of caregivers about proper water retrieval methods of household stored water can effectively reduce POU contamination of water at the household level and thereby reduce acute diarrhea among under-five children in slums of Addis Ababa. Promotion of household water treatment is also highly encouraged until the City's water authority is able to deliver continuously available piped water supplies.

Estimating Infection Risks and the Global Burden of Diarrheal Disease Attributable to Intermittent Water Supply Using QMRA

Intermittent water supply (IWS) is prevalent throughout low and middle-income countries. IWS is associated with increased microbial contamination and potentially elevated risk of waterborne illness. We used existing data sets to estimate the population exposed to IWS, assess the probability of infection using quantitative microbial risk assessment, and calculate the subsequent burden of diarrheal disease attributable to consuming fecally contaminated tap water from an IWS. We used reference pathogens Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, and rotavirus as conservative risk proxies for infections via bacteria, protozoa, and viruses, respectively. Results indicate that the median daily risk of infection is an estimated 1 in 23 500 for Campylobacter, 1 in 5 050 000 for Cryptosporidium, and 1 in 118 000 for rotavirus. Based on these risks, IWS may account for 17.2 million infections causing 4.52 million cases of diarrhea, 109 000 diarrheal DALYs, and 1560 deaths each year. The burden of diarrheal disease associated with IWS likely exceeds the WHO health-based normative guideline for drinking water of 10^-6 DALYs per person per year. Our results underscore the importance water safety management in water supplies and the potential benefits of point-of-use treatment to mitigate risks.

Impact of the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Clinical and Hypoxemic Childhood Pneumonia over Three Years in Central Malawi: An Observational Study

BACKGROUND

The pneumococcal conjugate vaccine's (PCV) impact on childhood pneumonia during programmatic conditions in Africa is poorly understood. Following PCV13 introduction in Malawi in November 2011, we evaluated the case burden and rates of childhood pneumonia.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Between January 1, 2012-June 30, 2014 we conducted active pneumonia surveillance in children <5 years at seven hospitals, 18 health centres, and with 38 community health workers in two districts, central Malawi. Eligible children had clinical pneumonia per Malawi guidelines, defined as fast breathing only, chest indrawing +/- fast breathing, or, ≥1 clinical danger sign. Since pulse oximetry was not in the Malawi guidelines, oxygenation <90% defined hypoxemic pneumonia, a distinct category from clinical pneumonia. We quantified the pneumonia case burden and rates in two ways. We compared the period immediately following vaccine introduction (early) to the period with >75% three-dose PCV13 coverage (post). We also used multivariable time-series regression, adjusting for autocorrelation and exploring seasonal variation and alternative model specifications in sensitivity analyses. The early versus post analysis showed an increase in cases and rates of total, fast breathing, and indrawing pneumonia and a decrease in danger sign and hypoxemic pneumonia, and pneumonia mortality. At 76% three-dose PCV13 coverage, versus 0%, the time-series model showed a non-significant increase in total cases (+47%, 95% CI: -13%, +149%, p = 0.154); fast breathing cases increased 135% (+39%, +297%, p = 0.001), however, hypoxemia fell 47% (-5%, -70%, p = 0.031) and hospital deaths decreased 36% (-1%, -58%, p = 0.047) in children <5 years. We observed a shift towards disease without danger signs, as the proportion of cases with danger signs decreased by 65% (-46%, -77%, p<0.0001). These results were generally robust to plausible alternative model specifications.

CONCLUSIONS

Thirty months after PCV13 introduction in Malawi, the health system burden and rates of the severest forms of childhood pneumonia, including hypoxemia and death, have markedly decreased.

Application of a paper based device containing a new culture medium to detect Vibrio cholerae in water samples collected in Haiti

Cholera is now considered to be endemic in Haiti, often with increased incidence during rainy seasons. The challenge of cholera surveillance is exacerbated by the cost of sample collection and laboratory analysis. A diagnostic tool is needed that is low cost, easy-to-use, and able to detect and quantify Vibrio cholerae accurately in water samples within 18-24h, and perform reliably in remote settings lacking laboratory infrastructure and skilled staff. The two main objectives of this study were to develop and evaluate a new culture medium embedded in a new diagnostic tool (PAD for paper based analytical device) for detecting Vibrio cholerae from water samples collected in Haiti. The intent is to provide guidance for corrective action, such as chlorination, for water positive for V. cholerae epidemic strains. For detecting Vibrio cholerae, a new chromogenic medium was designed and evaluated as an alternative to thiosulfate citrate bile salts sucrose (TCBS) agar for testing raw water samples. Sensitivity and specificity of the medium were assessed using both raw and spiked water samples. The Vibrio cholerae chromogenic medium was proved to be highly selective against most of the cultivable bacteria in the water samples, without loss of sensitivity in detection of V. cholerae. Thus, reliability of this new culture medium for detection of V. cholerae in the presence of other Vibrio species in water samples offers a significant advantage. A new paper based device containing the new chromogenic medium previously evaluated was compared with reference methods for detecting V. cholerae from spiked water sample. The microbiological PAD specifications were evaluated in Haiti. More precisely, a total of 185 water samples were collected at five sites in Haiti, June 2014 and again in June 2015. With this new tool, three V. cholerae O1 and 17 V. cholerae non-O1/O139 strains were isolated. The presence of virulence-associated and regulatory genes, including ctxA, zot, ace, and toxR, was confirmed using multiplex PCR. The three V. cholerae O1 isolates were positive for three of the four virulence-associated and regulatory genes. Twelve of the V. cholerae non-O1/O139 isolates were found to carry toxR, but none were ctxA+, zot+, or ace+. However, six of the V. cholerae non-O1/O139 isolates were resistant to penicillin, ampicillin, trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole, nalidixic acid, and ciprofloxacin. The paper based analytical device (PAD) provides advantages in that standard culture methods employing agar plates are not required. Also, intermediary isolation steps were not required, including transfer to selective growth media, hence these steps being omitted reduced time to results. Furthermore, experienced technical skills also were not required. Thus, PAD is well suited for resource-limited settings.

Transparency in reporting observational studies: reflections after a year

The PLOS Medicine Editors take stock of changes in the reporting of observational studies following our new transparency guidelines from August 2014.