Risk maps of Lassa fever in West Africa

Spatio-temporal spread of Lassa virus and a new rodent host in the Mano River Union area, West Africa

The spread of Lassa virus (LASV) in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, which together are named the Mano River Union (MRU) area, was examined phylogeographically. To provide a reliable evolutionary scenario, new rodent-derived, whole LASV sequences were included. These were generated by metatranscriptomic next-generation sequencing from rodents sampled between 2003 and 2020 in 21 localities of Guinea and Sierra Leone. An analysis was performed using BEAST to perform continuous phylogeographic inference and EvoLaps v36 to visualize spatio-temporal spread. LASV was identified as expected in its primary host reservoir, the Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis), and also in two Guinean multimammate mice (Mastomys erythroleucus) in northern Sierra Leone and two rusty-bellied brush-furred mice (Lophuromys sikapusi) in southern Sierra Leone. This finding is consistent with the latter two species being secondary host reservoirs. The strains in these three species were very closely related in LASV lineage IV. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the most recent common ancestor of lineage IV existed 316-374 years ago and revealed distinct, well-supported clades from Sierra Leone (Bo, Kabala and Kenema), Guinea (Faranah, Kissidougou-Guekedou and Macenta) and Liberia (Phebe-Ganta). The phylogeographic scenario suggests southern Guinea as the point of origin of LASV in the MRU area, with subsequent spread to towards Mali, Liberia and Sierra Leone at a mean speed of 1.6 to 1.1 km/year.

A systematic review of mathematical models of Lassa fever

This systematic review, conducted following the PRISMA guidelines, scrutinizes mathematical models employed in the study of Lassa fever. The analysis revealed the inherent heterogeneity in both models and data, posing significant challenges to parameter estimation. While health and behavioral interventions exhibit promise in mitigating the disease's spread, their efficacy is contingent upon contextual factors. Identified through this review are critical gaps, limitations, and avenues for future research, necessitating increased harmonization and standardization in modeling approaches. The considerations of seasonal and spatial variations emerge as crucial elements demanding targeted investigation. The perpetual threat of emerging diseases, coupled with the enduring public health impact of Lassa fever, underscores the imperative for sustained research endeavors and investments in mathematical modeling. The conclusion underscored that while mathematical modeling remains an invaluable tool in the combat against Lassa fever, its optimal utilization mandates multidisciplinary collaboration, refined data collection methodologies, and an enriched understanding of the intricate disease dynamics. This comprehensive approach is essential for effectively reducing the burden of Lassa fever and safeguarding the health of vulnerable populations.

An mRNA-LNP-based Lassa virus vaccine induces protective immunity in mice

The mammarenavirus Lassa virus (LASV) causes the life-threatening hemorrhagic fever disease, Lassa fever. The lack of licensed medical countermeasures against LASV underscores the urgent need for the development of novel LASV vaccines, which has been hampered by the requirement for a biosafety level 4 facility to handle live LASV. Here, we investigated the efficacy of mRNA-lipid nanoparticle (mRNA-LNP)-based vaccines expressing the LASV glycoprotein precursor (LASgpc) or nucleoprotein (LCMnp) of the prototypic mammarenavirus, lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV), in mice. Two doses of LASgpc- or LCMnp-mRNA-LNP administered intravenously (i.v.) protected C57BL/6 mice from a lethal challenge with a recombinant (r) LCMV expressing a modified LASgpc (rLCMV/LASgpc2m) inoculated intracranially. Intramuscular (i.m.) immunization with two doses of LASgpc- or LCMnp-mRNA-LNP significantly reduced the viral load in C57BL/6 mice inoculated i.v. with rLCMV/LASgpc2m. High levels of viremia and lethality were observed in CBA mice inoculated i.v. with rLCMV/LASgpc2m, which were abrogated by i.m. immunization with two doses of LASgpc-mRNA-LNP. The protective efficacy of two i.m. doses of LCMnp-mRNA-LNP was confirmed in a lethal hemorrhagic disease model of FVB mice i.v. inoculated with wild-type rLCMV. In all conditions tested, negligible and high levels of LASgpc- and LCMnp-specific antibodies were detected in mRNA-LNP-immunized mice, respectively, but robust LASgpc- and LCMnp-specific CD8+ T cell responses were induced. Accordingly, plasma from LASgpc-mRNA-LNP-immunized mice did not exhibit neutralizing activity. Our findings and surrogate mouse models of LASV infection, which can be studied at a reduced biocontainment level, provide a critical foundation for the rapid development of mRNA-LNP-based LASV vaccines.IMPORTANCELassa virus (LASV) is a highly pathogenic mammarenavirus responsible for several hundred thousand infections annually in West African countries, causing a high number of lethal Lassa fever (LF) cases. Despite its significant impact on human health, clinically approved, safe, and effective medical countermeasures against LF are not available. The requirement of a biosafety level 4 facility to handle live LASV has been one of the main obstacles to the research and development of LASV countermeasures. Here, we report that two doses of mRNA-lipid nanoparticle-based vaccines expressing the LASV glycoprotein precursor (LASgpc) or nucleoprotein (LCMnp) of lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV), a mammarenavirus genetically closely related to LASV, conferred protection to recombinant LCMV-based surrogate mouse models of lethal LASV infection. Notably, robust LASgpc- and LCMnp-specific CD8+ T cell responses were detected in mRNA-LNP-immunized mice, whereas no virus-neutralizing activity was observed.

Reservoir displacement by an invasive rodent reduces Lassa virus zoonotic spillover risk

The black rat (Rattus rattus) is a globally invasive species that has been widely introduced across Africa. Within its invasive range in West Africa, R. rattus may compete with the native rodent Mastomys natalensis, the primary reservoir host of Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that kills thousands annually. Here, we use rodent trapping data from Sierra Leone and Guinea to show that R. rattus presence reduces M. natalensis density within the human dwellings where Lassa virus exposure is most likely to occur. Further, we integrate infection data from M. natalensis to demonstrate that Lassa virus zoonotic spillover risk is lower at sites with R. rattus. While non-native species can have numerous negative effects on ecosystems, our results suggest that R. rattus invasion has the indirect benefit of decreasing zoonotic spillover of an endemic pathogen, with important implications for invasive species control across West Africa.

Genome-wide association study identifies human genetic variants associated with fatal outcome from Lassa fever

Infection with Lassa virus (LASV) can cause Lassa fever, a haemorrhagic illness with an estimated fatality rate of 29.7%, but causes no or mild symptoms in many individuals. Here, to investigate whether human genetic variation underlies the heterogeneity of LASV infection, we carried out genome-wide association studies (GWAS) as well as seroprevalence surveys, human leukocyte antigen typing and high-throughput variant functional characterization assays. We analysed Lassa fever susceptibility and fatal outcomes in 533 cases of Lassa fever and 1,986 population controls recruited over a 7 year period in Nigeria and Sierra Leone. We detected genome-wide significant variant associations with Lassa fever fatal outcomes near GRM7 and LIF in the Nigerian cohort. We also show that a haplotype bearing signatures of positive selection and overlapping LARGE1, a required LASV entry factor, is associated with decreased risk of Lassa fever in the Nigerian cohort but not in the Sierra Leone cohort. Overall, we identified variants and genes that may impact the risk of severe Lassa fever, demonstrating how GWAS can provide insight into viral pathogenesis.

Trend of Lassa fever cases and factors associated with mortality in Liberia, 2016 - 2021: a secondary data analysis

Introduction

Lassa fever (LF) is endemic in Liberia and is immediately reportable. Suspected cases are confirmed at the National Public Health Reference Laboratory. However, there is limited information on the trend and factors associated with mortality. We described the epidemiological characteristics of LF cases and determined factors associated with mortality in Liberia from 2016 to 2021.

Methods

we reviewed 867 case-based LF surveillance data from 2016 to 2021 obtained from the National Public Health Institute of Liberia (NPHIL). The cases that met the suspected LF case definition were tested with RT-PCR. Using Epi Info 7.2.5.0. We conducted univariate, bivariate, and multivariate and analysis. We calculated frequencies, proportions. Positivity rate, case fatality rate, and factors associated with LF mortality using chi-square statistics and logistics regression at 5% level of significance.

Results

eighty-five percent (737/867) of the suspected cases were tested and 26.0% (192/737) were confirmed LF positive. The median age of confirmed LF cases was 21(IQR: 12-34) years. Age 10-19 years accounted for 24.5% (47/192) and females 54.2% (104/192). Bong 33.9% (65/192), Grand Bassa 31.8% (61/192), and Nimba counties, 21.9% (42/192) accounted for most of the cases. The median duration from symptom onset to hospital admission was 6 (IQR: 3-9) days. A majority, 66% (126/192) of the cases were reported during the dry season (October-March) and annual incidence was highest at 12 cases per 1,000,000 population in 2019 and 2020. The overall case fatality rate was 44.8%. Non-endemic counties, Margibi, 77.8% and Montserrado, 66.7% accounted for the highest case fatality rate (CFR), while 2018, 66.7% and 2021, 60.0% recorded the highest CFR during the period. Age ≥30 years (aOR=2.1,95% CI: 1.08-4.11, p=0.027) and residing in Grand Bassa County (aOR=0.3, 95% CI: 0.13-0.73, p=0.007) were associated with LF mortality.

Conclusion

Lassa fever was endemic in three of the fifteen counties of Liberia, case fatality rate remained generally high and widely varied. The high fatality of LF has been reported to the NPHIL and is currently being further investigated. There is a need to continuously train healthcare workers, especially in non-endemic counties to improve the LF treatment outcome.

Ecological correlates and predictors of Lassa fever incidence in Ondo State, Nigeria 2017-2021: an emerging urban trend

Lassa fever (LF) is prevalent in many West African countries, including Nigeria. Efforts to combat LF have primarily focused on rural areas where interactions between rodents and humans are common. However, recent studies indicate a shift in its occurrence from rural to urban areas. We analysed secondary data of reported LF outbreaks from 2017 to 2021 in Ondo State, Nigeria to identify the distribution pattern, ecological variations, and other determinants of disease spread from the ward level using nearest neighbour statistics and regression analysis. Data utilised include LF incidence, ecological variables involving population, nighttime light intensity, vegetation, temperature, market presence, road length, and building area coverage. ArcGIS Pro 3.0 software was employed for spatial analysis. Results revealed spatio-temporal clustering of LF incidents between 2017 and 2021, with an increasing trend followed by a decline in 2021. All wards in Owo Local Government Area were identified as LF hotspots. The ecological variables exhibited significant correlations with the number of LF cases in the wards, except for maximum temperature. Notably, these variables varied significantly between wards with confirmed LF and those without. Therefore, it is important to prioritise strategies for mitigating LF outbreaks in urban areas of Nigeria and other LF-endemic countries.

Risky business: human-related data is lacking from Lyme disease risk models

Used as a communicative tool for risk management, risk maps provide a service to the public, conveying information that can raise risk awareness and encourage mitigation. Several studies have utilized risk maps to determine risks associated with the distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi, the causal agent of Lyme disease in North America and Europe, as this zoonotic disease can lead to severe symptoms. This literature review focused on the use of risk maps to model distributions of B. burgdorferi and its vector, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis), in North America to compare variables used to predict these spatial models. Data were compiled from the existing literature to determine which ecological, environmental, and anthropic (i.e., human focused) variables past research has considered influential to the risk level for Lyme disease. The frequency of these variables was examined and analyzed via a non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis to compare different map elements that may categorize the risk models performed. Environmental variables were found to be the most frequently used in risk spatial models, particularly temperature. It was found that there was a significantly dissimilar distribution of variables used within map elements across studies: Map Type, Map Distributions, and Map Scale. Within these map elements, few anthropic variables were considered, particularly in studies that modeled future risk, despite the objective of these models directly or indirectly focusing on public health intervention. Without including human-related factors considering these variables within risk map models, it is difficult to determine how reliable these risk maps truly are. Future researchers may be persuaded to improve disease risk models by taking this into consideration.

Predicting the fine-scale spatial distribution of zoonotic reservoirs using computer vision

Zoonotic diseases threaten human health worldwide and are often associated with anthropogenic disturbance. Predicting how disturbance influences spillover risk is critical for effective disease intervention but difficult to achieve at fine spatial scales. Here, we develop a method that learns the spatial distribution of a reservoir species from aerial imagery. Our approach uses neural networks to extract features of known or hypothesized importance from images. The spatial distribution of these features is then summarized and linked to spatially explicit reservoir presence/absence data using boosted regression trees. We demonstrate the utility of our method by applying it to the reservoir of Lassa virus, Mastomys natalensis, within the West African nations of Sierra Leone and Guinea. We show that, when trained using reservoir trapping data and publicly available aerial imagery, our framework learns relationships between environmental features and reservoir occurrence and accurately ranks areas according to the likelihood of reservoir presence.

S RNA Intergenic Deletions Drive Viral Interference during Arenavirus Infections

Arenaviruses, a family of negative-sense RNA viruses spread by rodents, are a leading cause of severe hemorrhagic fever in humans. Due to a paucity of antivirals and vaccines for arenaviruses, there is a need to identify new mechanisms for interfering with arenavirus replication. In several negative-sense RNA viruses, natural viral interference results from the production of non-standard viral genomes (nsVGs) that activate the innate immune system and/or compete for essential viral products. Although it is well established that arenaviruses produce strong interfering activities, it is unknown if they produce interfering nsVGs. Here we show that arenaviruses produce deletions within the intergenic region of their Small (S) RNA genome, which prevents the production of viral mRNA and protein. These deletions are more abundant when arenaviruses are grown in high-interfering conditions and are associated with inhibited viral replication. Overall, we found that arenaviruses produce internal deletions within the S RNA intergenic region that are produced by arenaviruses and can block viral replication. These natural arenavirus interfering molecules provide a new target for the generation of antivirals as well as an alternative strategy for producing attenuated arenaviruses for vaccines.

Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria

Lassa fever (Lf) is a viral haemorrhagic disease endemic to West Africa and is caused by the Lassa mammarenavirus. The rodent Mastomys natalensis serves as the primary reservoir and its ecology and behaviour have been linked to the distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the incidence of Lf. Nigeria has experienced an unprecedented epidemic that lasted from January until April of 2018, which has been followed by subsequent epidemics of Lf in the same period every year since. While previous research has modelled the case seasonality within Nigeria, this did not capture the seasonal variation in the reproduction of the zoonotic reservoir and its effect on case numbers. To this end, we introduce an approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit our model to the case data from 2018-2020 supplied by the NCDC. In this study we used a periodically forced seasonal nonautonomous system of ordinary differential equations as a vector model to demonstrate that the population dynamics of the rodent reservoir may be responsible for the spikes in the number of observed cases in humans. The results show that in December through to March, spillover from the zoonotic reservoir drastically increases and spreads the virus to the people of Nigeria. Therefore to effectively combat Lf, attention and efforts should be concentrated during this period.

Knowledge and practices associated with Lassa fever in rural Nigeria: Implications for prevention and control

Lassa fever (LF) is a haemorrhagic illness endemic in West Africa, which can be attributed to poor rat control and poor sanitation, especially in the rural communities. Increasing awareness and education about LF has been advocated for its prevention and control. This study investigated the level of awareness and knowledge associated with LF among the residents of Iwo and Oluponna areas of Osun State, southwest Nigeria. A descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out among the adult residents using a structured questionnaire. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used in analysing the data. In total, 534 (79.11%) respondents had heard about LF, but only 15.4% had good knowledge of the disease. Their main source of information was the media (46.3%, P=0.002, P<0.01), while only 21.2% got information from health workers. About 45% of respondents have rats in their houses. Respondents from Iwo were better informed than Oluponna. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated location to be significantly associated with awareness (OR=1.62, C.I=1.078-2.433, P<0.05), knowledge of prevention (OR=5.88, C.I=2.807-12.317, P=0.000, P<0.01) and treatment (OR=1.648, C.I=1.122-2.420, P=0.011, P<0.05). Although the residents of Iwo are better informed about LF than Oluponna residents, the knowledge of the disease is poor in both areas. Health workers should be well informed, and the government should increase enlightenment programmes about LF, especially in rural communities of Nigeria, so as to curtail the spread and prevent outbreaks.

Re-emergence of Lassa fever in Nigeria: A new challenge for public health authorities

The Lassa virus is an RNA virus belonging to the Arenaviridae family. It is responsible for Lassa fever, an acute viral zoonosis of the severe hemorrhagic fever type with manifestations of fever, muscle pain, sore throat, nausea, vomiting, and chest and abdominal pain. Lassa fever is endemic in West Africa, where the first case was reported in 1969 in Lassa, a town in Nigeria, more than 50 years ago, and it is estimated that nearly 5000 deaths occur in West Africa each year. Nigeria is one of the endemic hotspots and has experienced numerous recurrent outbreaks of Lassa fever due to the increased multiplication of the host reservoir, Mastomys natalensis. For the Lassa epidemics in 2022 and January 2023 alone, Nigeria accounts for a quarter of the annual deaths from this disease. Poor lifestyle and hygiene, difficulty in diagnosis due to nonspecific symptomatology, lack of effective treatment based on clinical evidence, an ineffective human immunization program combined with a health system that is not adapted or equipped to control and prevent recurrent deadly epidemics, and an outdated regional disease surveillance system in West Africa are some of the challenges that must be overcome to rapidly and effectively eradicate this disease, whose area of spread is constantly expanding as a result of the movement of populations in the context of economic and socio-cultural activities.

Praemonitus praemunitus: can we forecast and prepare for future viral disease outbreaks?

Understanding the origins of past and present viral epidemics is critical in preparing for future outbreaks. Many viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, have led to significant consequences not only due to their virulence, but also because we were unprepared for their emergence. We need to learn from large amounts of data accumulated from well-studied, past pandemics and employ modern informatics and therapeutic development technologies to forecast future pandemics and help minimize their potential impacts. While acknowledging the complexity and difficulties associated with establishing reliable outbreak predictions, herein we provide a perspective on the regions of the world that are most likely to be impacted by future outbreaks. We specifically focus on viruses with epidemic potential, namely SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, DENV, ZIKV, MAYV, LASV, noroviruses, influenza, Nipah virus, hantaviruses, Oropouche virus, MARV, and Ebola virus, which all require attention from both the public and scientific community to avoid societal catastrophes like COVID-19. Based on our literature review, data analysis, and outbreak simulations, we posit that these future viral epidemics are unavoidable, but that their societal impacts can be minimized by strategic investment into basic virology research, epidemiological studies of neglected viral diseases, and antiviral drug discovery.

Lassa Fever Natural History and Clinical Management

Lassa fever is caused by Lassa virus (LASV), an Old World Mammarenavirus that is carried by Mastomys natalensis and other rodents. It is endemic in Sierra Leone, Nigeria, and other countries in West Africa. The clinical presentation of LASV infection is heterogenous varying from an inapparent or mild illness to a fatal hemorrhagic fever. Exposure to LASV is usually through contact with rodent excreta. After an incubation period of 1-3 weeks, initial symptoms such as fever, headache, and fatigue develop that may progress to sore throat, retrosternal chest pain, conjunctival injection, vomiting, diarrhea, and abdominal pain. Severe illness, including hypotension, shock, and multiorgan failure, develops in a minority of patients. Patient demographics and case fatality rates are distinctly different in Sierra Leone and Nigeria. Laboratory diagnosis relies on the detection of LASV antigens or genomic RNA. LASV-specific immunoglobulin G and M assays can also contribute to clinical management. The mainstay of treatment for Lassa fever is supportive care. The nucleoside analog ribavirin is commonly used to treat acute Lassa fever but is considered useful only if treatment is begun early in the disease course. Drugs in development, including a monoclonal antibody cocktail, have the potential to impact the management of Lassa fever.

Lassa Virus Structural Biology and Replication

Lassa virus (LASV) is the causative agent of Lassa fever, an often-fatal hemorrhagic fever that is endemic in West Africa. LASV virions are enveloped and contain two single-stranded RNA genome segments. Both segments are ambisense and encode two proteins. The nucleoprotein associates with viral RNAs forming ribonucleoprotein complexes. The glycoprotein complex mediates viral attachment and entry. The Zinc protein serves as the matrix protein. Large is a polymerase that catalyzes viral RNA transcription and replication. LASV virion entry occurs via a clathrin-independent endocytic pathway usually involving alpha-dystroglycan and lysosomal associated membrane protein 1 as surface and intracellular receptors, respectively. Advances in understanding LASV structural biology and replication have facilitated development of promising vaccine and drug candidates.

Online learning for WHO priority diseases with pandemic potential: evidence from existing courses and preparing for Disease X

BACKGROUND

OpenWHO is the open-access learning platform of the World Health Organization (WHO) that provides online learning for health emergencies with essential health knowledge for emergencies. There is emphasis for courses on severe emerging diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential to help frontline health workers prevent, control and respond to infectious diseases. This research addresses the question of how the existing OpenWHO online courses on infectious disease were used in the countries of disease occurrence and how to prepare for disease X, a novel or unknown pathogen with pandemic potential.

METHODS

OpenWHO collects self-declared demographic data from learners among which there is data on geographical location of learners. Data in infectious disease courses use on OpenWHO was collected and examined and additionally information languages used in the outbreak locations was collected.

RESULTS

For most diseases in focus the online learning materials were used in countries with burden of disease. This suggests the learning material production needs to be targeted for outbreak and epidemic events.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings inform the use of learning materials in disease outbreaks. Further, this use case data confirms learning providers need to add offerings in languages spoken in outbreak impacted areas.

Immunogenicity, safety, and tolerability of a recombinant measles-vectored Lassa fever vaccine: a randomised, placebo-controlled, first-in-human trial

BACKGROUND

Lassa fever is a substantial health burden in west Africa. We evaluated the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of a recombinant, live-attenuated, measles-vectored Lassa fever vaccine candidate (MV-LASV).

METHODS

This first-in-human phase 1 trial-consisting of an open-label dose-escalation stage and an observer-blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled treatment stage-was conducted at a single site at the University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium, and involved healthy adults aged 18-55 years. Participants in the dose-escalation stage were sequentially assigned to a low-dose group (two intramuscular doses of MV-LASV at 2 × 10⁴ times the median tissue culture infectious dose) or a high-dose group (two doses at 1 × 10⁵ times the median tissue culture infectious dose). Participants in the double-blinded treatment stage were randomly assigned in a 2:2:1 ratio to receive low dose, high dose, or placebo. The primary endpoint was the rate of solicited and unsolicited adverse events up to study day 56 and was assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of investigational product. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04055454, and the European Union Drug Regulating Authorities Clinical Trials Database, 2018-003647-40, and is complete.

FINDINGS

Between Sept 26, 2019, and Jan 20, 2020, 60 participants were enrolled and assigned to receive placebo (n=12) or MV-LASV (n=48). All 60 participants received at least one study treatment. Most adverse events occurred during the treatment phase, and frequencies of total solicited or unsolicited adverse events were similar between treatment groups, with 96% of participants in the low-dose group, 100% of those in the high-dose group, and 92% of those in the placebo group having any solicited adverse event (p=0·6751) and 76% of those in the low-dose group, 70% of those in the high-dose group, and 100% of those in the placebo group having any unsolicited adverse event (p=0·1047). The only significant difference related to local solicited adverse events, with higher frequencies observed in groups receiving MV-LASV (24 [96%] of 25 participants in the low-dose group; all 23 [100%] participants in the high-dose group) than in the placebo group (6 [50%] of 12 participants; p=0·0001, Fisher-Freeman-Halton test). Adverse events were mostly of mild or moderate severity, and no serious adverse events were observed. MV-LASV also induced substantial concentrations of LASV-specific IgG (geometric mean titre 62·9 EU/ml in the low-dose group and 145·9 EU/ml in the high-dose group on day 42).

INTERPRETATION

MV-LASV showed an acceptable safety and tolerability profile, and immunogenicity seemed to be unaffected by pre-existing immunity against the vector. MV-LASV is therefore a promising candidate for further development.

FUNDING

Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.

Genetic basis underlying Lassa fever endemics in the Mano River region, West Africa

Lassa fever (LF), a haemorrhagic fever disease caused by Lassa virus (LASV), is a serious public health burden in West Africa. The Mano River region (Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, and Côte d'Ivoire) has been an endemic focus of the disease over the past decades. Here, we deciphered the genetic basis underlying LF endemics in this region. Clade model and type I functional divergence analyses revealed that the major LASV group, Kenema sub-clade, which is currently circulating in the Eastern Province of Sierra Leone, has been affected by different selective pressure compared to isolates from the other areas with effects on the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (L protein) and probably nucleoprotein (NP). Further, contingency analysis showed that, in the early endemic, the sub-clade has undergone adaptive diversification via acceleration of amino acid substitutions in L protein. These findings highlight the key viral factor and local adaptation regarding the endemicity of LF.

Mammarenavirus Genetic Diversity and Its Biological Implications

Members of the family Arenaviridae are classified into four genera: Antennavirus, Hartmanivirus, Mammarenavirus, and Reptarenavirus. Reptarenaviruses and hartmaniviruses infect (captive) snakes and have been shown to cause boid inclusion body disease (BIBD). Antennaviruses have genomes consisting of 3, rather than 2, segments, and were discovered in actinopterygian fish by next-generation sequencing but no biological isolate has been reported yet. The hosts of mammarenaviruses are mainly rodents and infections are generally asymptomatic. Current knowledge about the biology of reptarenaviruses, hartmaniviruses, and antennaviruses is very limited and their zoonotic potential is unknown. In contrast, some mammarenaviruses are associated with zoonotic events that pose a threat to human health. This review will focus on mammarenavirus genetic diversity and its biological implications. Some mammarenaviruses including lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) are excellent experimental model systems for the investigation of acute and persistent viral infections, whereas others including Lassa (LASV) and Junin (JUNV) viruses, the causative agents of Lassa fever (LF) and Argentine hemorrhagic fever (AHF), respectively, are important human pathogens. Mammarenaviruses were thought to have high degree of intra-and inter-species amino acid sequence identities, but recent evidence has revealed a high degree of mammarenavirus genetic diversity in the field. Moreover, closely related mammarenavirus can display dramatic phenotypic differences in vivo. These findings support a role of genetic variability in mammarenavirus adaptability and pathogenesis. Here, we will review the molecular biology of mammarenaviruses, phylogeny, and evolution, as well as the quasispecies dynamics of mammarenavirus populations and their biological implications.

Modeling the Lassa fever outbreak synchronously occurring with cholera and COVID-19 outbreaks in Nigeria 2021: A threat to Global Health Security

Nigeria struggles with seasonal outbreaks of Lassa fever (LF), with 70 to 100% of its states affected annually. Since 2018, the seasonal dynamics have changed with a stark increase in infections, though the pattern in 2021 differed from the other years. Nigeria had three outbreaks of Lassa Fever in 2021. In that year, Nigeria also experienced substantial burdens from COVID-19 and Cholera. There is potential that these three outbreak events interacted with each other. This may have been from community disruption and so changes in how people access the health system, how the health system responds, or overlapping biological interactions, misclassification, social factors, misinformation, and pre-existing disparities and vulnerabilities. We assessed the syndemic potential of Lassa Fever, COVID-19, and Cholera through modeling their interactions across the 2021 calendar year employing a Poisson regression model. We included the number of states affected and the month of the year. We used these predictors to forecast the progression of the outbreak using a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The Poisson model prediction for the confirmed number of Lassa fever cases was significantly dependent on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, the number of states affected, and the month of the year (p-value < 0.001), and the SARIMA model was a good fit, accounting for 48% of the change in the number of cases of Lassa fever (p-value < 0.001) with parameters ARIMA (6, 1, 3) (5, 0, 3). Lassa Fever, COVID-19, and Cholera 2021 case curves have mirrored dynamics and likely interact. Further research into common, intervenable aspects of those interactions should be performed.

The COVID-19 Impact on the Trends in Yellow Fever and Lassa Fever Infections in Nigeria

Lassa fever (LF) and yellow fever (YF) belong to a group of viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs). These viruses have common features and damages the organs and blood vessels; they also impair the body's homeostasis. Some VHFs cause mild disease, while some cause severe disease and death such as in the case of Ebola or Marburg. LF virus and YF virus are two of the most recent emerging viruses in Africa, resulting in severe hemorrhagic fever in humans. Lassa fever virus is continuously on the rise both in Nigeria and neighboring countries in West Africa, with an estimate of over 500,000 cases of LF, and 5000 deaths, annually. YF virus is endemic in temperate climate regions of Africa, Central America (Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador), and South America (such as Brazil, Argentina, Peru, and Chile) with an annual estimated cases of 200,000 and 30,000 deaths globally. This review examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the trend in epidemiology of these two VHFs to delineate responses that are associated with protective or pathogenic outcomes.

Luna Virus and Helminths in Wild Mastomys natalensis in Two Contrasting Habitats in Zambia: Risk Factors and Evidence of Virus Dissemination in Semen

Transmission dynamics and the maintenance of mammarenaviruses in nature are poorly understood. Using metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) and RT-PCR, we investigated the presence of mammarenaviruses and co-infecting helminths in various tissues of 182 Mastomys natalensis rodents and 68 other small mammals in riverine and non-riverine habitats in Zambia. The Luna virus (LUAV) genome was the only mammarenavirus detected (7.7%; 14/182) from M. natalensis. Only one rodent from the non-riverine habitat was positive, while all six foetuses from one pregnant rodent carried LUAV. LUAV-specific mNGS reads were 24-fold higher in semen than in other tissues from males. Phylogenetically, the viruses were closely related to each other within the LUAV clade. Helminth infections were found in 11.5% (21/182) of M. natalensis. LUAV–helminth co-infections were observed in 50% (7/14) of virus-positive rodents. Juvenility (OR = 9.4; p = 0.018; 95% CI: 1.47–59.84), nematodes (OR = 15.5; p = 0.001; 95% CI: 3.11–76.70), cestodes (OR = 10.8; p = 0.025; 95% CI: 1.35–86.77), and being male (OR = 4.6; p = 0.036; 95% CI: 1.10–18.90) were associated with increased odds of LUAV RNA detection. The role of possible sexual and/or congenital transmission in the epidemiology of LUAV infections in rodents requires further study, along with the implications of possible helminth co-infection.

Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades.

Reservoir population ecology, viral evolution and the risk of emerging infectious disease

The ecology and life history of wild animals influences their potential to harbour infectious disease. This observation has motivated studies identifying empirical relationships between traits of wild animals and historical patterns of spillover and emergence into humans. Although these studies have identified compelling broad-scale patterns, they are generally agnostic with respect to underlying mechanisms. Here, we develop mathematical models that couple reservoir population ecology with viral epidemiology and evolution to clarify existing verbal arguments and pinpoint the conditions that favour spillover and emergence. Our results support the idea that average lifespan influences the likelihood of an animal serving as a reservoir for human infectious disease. At the same time, however, our results show that the magnitude of this effect is sensitive to the rate of viral mutation. Our results also demonstrate that viral pathogens causing persistent infections or a transient immune response within the reservoir are more likely to fuel emergence. Genetically explicit stochastic simulations enrich these mathematical results by identifying relationships between the genetic basis of transmission and the risk of spillover and emergence. Together, our results clarify the scope of applicability for existing hypotheses and refine our understanding of emergence risk.

Understanding Host–Virus Interactions: Assessment of Innate Immune Responses in Mastomys natalensis Cells after Arenavirus Infection

Mastomys natalensis is the natural host of various arenaviruses, including the human-pathogenic Lassa virus. Homologous arenaviruses, defined here as those having M. natalensis as a natural host, can establish long-lasting infection in M. natalensis, while these animals rapidly clear arenaviruses having another rodent species as a natural host (heterologous viruses). Little is known about the mechanisms behind the underlying arenavirus–host barriers. The innate immune system, particularly the type I interferon (IFN) response, might play a role. In this study, we developed and validated RT-PCR assays to analyse the expression of M. natalensis interferon-stimulated genes (ISGs). We then used these assays to study if homologous and heterologous viruses induce different IFN responses in M. natalensis cells. Infection experiments were performed with the homologous Lassa and Morogoro viruses and the related but heterologous Mobala virus. Compared to the direct induction with IFN or Poly(I:C), arenaviruses generally induced a weak IFN response. However, the ISG-expression profiles of homologous and heterologous viruses were similar. Our data indicate that, at least in M. natalensis cells, the IFN system is not a major factor in the virus–host barrier for arenaviruses. Our system provides a valuable tool for future in vivo investigation of arenavirus host restrictions at the level of the innate immune response.

Unravelling the dynamics of Lassa fever transmission with differential infectivity: Modeling analysis and control strategies

Epidemic models have been broadly used to comprehend the dynamic behaviour of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, predict future trends, and assess intervention strategies. The symptomatic and asymptomatic features and environmental factors for Lassa fever (LF) transmission illustrate the need for sophisticated epidemic models to capture more vital dynamics and forecast trends of LF outbreaks within countries or sub-regions on various geographic scales. This study proposes a dynamic model to examine the transmission of LF infection, a deadly disease transmitted mainly by rodents through environment. We extend prior LF models by including an infectious stage to mild and severe as well as incorporating environmental contributions from infected humans and rodents. For model calibration and prediction, we show that the model fits well with the LF scenario in Nigeria and yields remarkable prediction results. Rigorous mathematical computation divulges that the model comprises two equilibria. That is disease-free equilibrium, which is locally-asymptotically stable (LAS) when the basic reproduction number, $ {\mathcal{R}}_{0} $, is $ < 1 $; and endemic equilibrium, which is globally-asymptotically stable (GAS) when $ {\mathcal{R}}_{0} $ is $ > 1 $. We use time-dependent control strategy by employing Pontryagin's Maximum Principle to derive conditions for optimal LF control. Furthermore, a partial rank correlation coefficient is adopted for the sensitivity analysis to obtain the model's top rank parameters requiring precise attention for efficacious LF prevention and control.

Establishment of Recombinant Trisegmented Mopeia Virus Expressing Two Reporter Genes for Screening of Mammarenavirus Inhibitors

Highly pathogenic Arenaviruses, like the Lassa Virus (LASV), pose a serious public health threat in affected countries. Research and development of vaccines and therapeutics are urgently needed but hampered by the necessity to handle these pathogens under biosafety level 4 conditions. These containment restrictions make large-scale screens of antiviral compounds difficult. Therefore, the Mopeia virus (MOPV), closely related to LASV, is often used as an apathogenic surrogate virus. We established for the first time trisegmented MOPVs (r3MOPV) with duplicated S segments, in which one of the viral genes was replaced by the reporter genes ZsGreen (ZsG) or Renilla Luciferase (Rluc), respectively. In vitro characterization of the two trisegmented viruses (r3MOPV ZsG/Rluc and r3MOPV Rluc/ZsG), showed comparable growth behavior to the wild type virus and the expression of the reporter genes correlated well with viral titer. We used the reporter viruses in a proof-of-principle in vitro study to evaluate the antiviral activity of two well characterized drugs. IC₅₀ values obtained by Rluc measurement were similar to those obtained by virus titers. ZsG expression was also suitable to evaluate antiviral effects. The trisegmented MOPVs described here provide a versatile and valuable basis for rapid high throughput screening of broadly reactive antiviral compounds against arenaviruses under BSL-2 conditions.

Beyond Lassa Fever: Systemic and structural barriers to disease detection and response in Sierra Leone

Background

Lassa fever (LF) often presents clinically as undifferentiated febrile illness. Lassa Fever cases in Sierra Leone have been falling since the 2014–2016 Ebola epidemic. Data from other LF endemic countries suggest that this is not a true reflection of local epidemiological decline, but rather a function of either health seeking behaviour or the health/referral system. In Sierra Leone, many other diseases present with a similar early clinical picture, including COVID-19 and Marburg Disease (which has recently emerged in neighbouring Guinea). This empirical study explores the implementation of health system processes associated with International Health Regulations (IHR) requirements for early detection and timely and effective responses to the spread of febrile disease, through the case study of LF in Sierra Leone.

Methodology/Principal findings

This study used a qualitative approach to analyse local policy and guidance documents, key informant interviews with policy and practice actors, and focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with health care workers (HCWs) and community health workers (CHWs) in Kenema District to examine the ways in which undifferentiated fever surveillance and response policies and processes were implemented in the post-Ebola period. Multiple challenges were identified, including: issues with the LF case definition, approaches to differential diagnosis, specimen transport and the provision of results, and ownership of laboratory data. These issues lead to delays in diagnosis, and potentially worse outcomes for individual patients, as well as affecting the system’s ability to respond to outbreak-prone disease.

Conclusions/Significance

Identification of ways to improve the system requires balancing vertical disease surveillance programmes against other population health needs. Therefore, health system challenges to early identification of LF specifically have implications for the effectiveness of the wider Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) system in Sierra Leone more generally. Sentinel surveillance or improved surveillance at maternity facilities would help improve viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF) surveillance, as well as knowledge of LF epidemiology. Strengthening surveillance for vertical disease programmes, if correctly targeted, could have downstream benefits for COVID-19 surveillance and response as well as the wider health system—and therefore patient outcomes more generally.

Lassa fever (LF) often presents clinically as undifferentiated febrile illness. Lassa Fever cases in Sierra Leone have been falling since the 2014–2016 Ebola epidemic. Data from other LF-endemic countries suggest the drop in case numbers reflects reduced health seeking behaviour or issues within the surveillance, response and health systems. In Sierra Leone, many other diseases present with a similar early clinical picture, including COVID-19, meaning that findings from a case study of LF have wider applicability. There are no recent empirical studies of the functionality of Sierra Leone’s disease surveillance and response system. Qualitative analysis of policy documents and primary data collected from within the health system identified multiple challenges including: issues with the LF case definition, approaches to differential diagnosis, specimen transport and the provision of results, and ownership of laboratory data. These issues lead to delays in diagnosis, and potentially worse outcomes for individual patients, as well as affecting the system’s ability to respond to outbreak-prone disease.

A challenging response to a Lassa fever outbreak in a non endemic area of Sierra Leone in 2019 with export of cases to The Netherlands

Introduction

On November 20, 2019, the Sierra Leone International Health Regulations (IHR) National Focal Point was notified of an exported case of Lassa fever in The Netherlands, by a Dutch doctor who previously practiced in a rural hospital in Sierra Leone. This report describes the extent of the outbreak, possible sources of infection, and the outbreak response measures taken.

Methods

Response measures implemented to control the outbreak included coordination across multiple countries and cities, outbreak investigation, active case finding, contact tracing and monitoring, laboratory investigation, and isolation and treatment of cases.

Results

We report a hospital-associated outbreak that resulted in 3 confirmed cases (health workers) and 2 probable cases (patients). The case fatality rate was 60%, whereas the secondary attack rate was 14%. Two cases involved exportations to The Netherlands. Failure to detect the index case and poor adherence to infection prevention and control (IPC) protocols contributed to disease spread. Pregnancy status and nonspecific signs and symptoms of the index case contributed to failure in early case detection.

Conclusions

Rapid activation of national and subnational incident management systems resulted in rapid outbreak control. We recommend regular training for clinicians on surveillance and IPC protocols and strengthening in-country Lassa virus diagnostic capacity.

A New Numerical Scheme for Time Fractional Diffusive SEAIR Model with Non-Linear Incidence Rate: An Application to Computational Biology

In this paper, we propose a modified fractional diffusive SEAIR epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate. A constructed model of fractional partial differential equations (PDEs) is more general than the corresponding model of fractional ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The Caputo fractional derivative is considered. Linear stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium state of the epidemic model (ODEs) is presented by employing Routh–Hurwitz stability criteria. In order to solve this model, a fractional numerical scheme is proposed. The proposed scheme can be used to find conditions for obtaining positive solutions for diffusive epidemic models. The stability of the scheme is given, and convergence conditions are found for the system of the linearized diffusive fractional epidemic model. In addition to this, the deficiencies of accuracy and consistency in the nonstandard finite difference method are also underlined by comparing the results with the standard fractional scheme and the MATLAB built-in solver pdepe. The proposed scheme shows an advantage over the fractional nonstandard finite difference method in terms of accuracy. In addition, numerical results are supplied to evaluate the proposed scheme’s performance.

Clinical presentations, diagnostics, treatments and treatment costs of children and adults with febrile illness in a tertiary referral hospital in south-eastern Guinea: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study

Background

Febrile illness is frequent among patients in the tropics. It is caused by a wide variety of common diseases such as malaria or gastrointestinal infections but also by less common but highly contagious pathogens with epidemic potential. This study describes the clinical features of adult and paediatric patients with febrile illness in in the largest tertiary referral hospital in south-eastern Guinea, a region at high risk for viral haemorrhagic fever outbreaks. The study further compares their diagnostic characteristics, treatments and outcomes with non-febrile patients in order to contribute to the local epidemiology of febrile illness.

Methods

We used retrospective data collection to record demographic and clinical data of all incoming patients during a study period of three months. For the follow-up study of inpatients, we retrospectively reviewed patient charts for diagnostic characteristics, diagnoses and outcomes.

Results

Of the 4317 incoming patients during the study period, 9.5% had a febrile illness. The most used diagnostic measures to identify causative agents in febrile patients were point-of-care tests and most treatments relied on antibiotics. Most common discharge diagnoses for febrile inpatients were malaria (9.6% adults, 56.7% children), salmonella gastroenteritis/typhoid (10.6% adults, 7.8% children) and respiratory infection/pneumonia (5.3% adults, 18.7% children). Inpatient mortality for children was significantly higher in febrile than non-febrile children (18.5% vs. 5.1%, p<0.001) and considerably higher in febrile than non-febrile adults (29.8% vs. 25.0%, p = 0.404).

Conclusions

Malaria, respiratory infection and gastroenteritis are considered the main causes for febrile illness. The wide reliance on rapid diagnostic tests to diagnose febrile patients not only risks to over- or under-diagnose certain diseases but also leaves the possibility of highly infectious diseases in febrile patients unexplored. Furthermore, the heavy reliance on antibiotics risks to cause antimicrobial resistance. High mortality rates in febrile patients, especially children, should be of concern to public health authorities.

Domestic risk factors for increased rodent abundance in a Lassa fever endemic region of rural Upper Guinea

Lassa fever (LF) is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in West Africa and spread primarily by the multimammate rat, Mastomys natalensis. As there is no vaccine, reduction of rodent-human transmission is essential for disease control. As the household is thought to be a key site of transmission, understanding domestic risk factors for M. natalensis abundance is crucial. Rodent captures in conjunction with domestic surveys were carried out in 6 villages in an area of rural Upper Guinea with high LF endemicity. 120 rodent traps were set in rooms along a transect in each village for three nights, and the survey was administered in each household on the transects. This study was able to detect several domestic risk factors for increased rodent abundance in rural Upper Guinea. Regression analysis demonstrated that having > 8 holes (RR = 1.8 [1.0004-3.2, p = 0.048), the presence of rodent burrows (RR = 2.3 [1.6-3.23, p = 0.000003), and being in a multi-room square building (RR = 2.0 [1.3-2.9], p = 0.001) were associated with increased rodent abundance. The most addressable of these may be rodent burrows, as burrow patching is a relatively simple process that may reduce rodent entry. Further study is warranted to explicitly link domestic rodent abundance to LF risk, to better characterize domestic risk factors, and to evaluate how household rodent-proofing interventions could contribute to LF control.

Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria

Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host (Mastomys natalensis) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease's true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning.

The Influence of War and Conflict on Infectious Disease: A Rapid Review of Historical Lessons We Have Yet to Learn

Armed conflicts degrade established healthcare systems, which typically manifests as a resurgence of preventable infectious diseases. While 70% of deaths globally are now from non-communicable disease; in low-income countries, respiratory infections, diarrheal illness, malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDs are all in the top 10 causes of death. The burden of these infectious diseases is exacerbated by armed conflict, translating into even more dramatic long-term consequences. This rapid evidence review searched electronic databases in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. Of 381 identified publications, 73 were included in this review. Several authors indicate that the impact of infectious diseases increases in wars and armed conflicts due to disruption to surveillance and response systems that were often poorly developed to begin with. Although the true impact of conflict on infectious disease spread is not known and requires further research, the link between them is indisputable. Current decision-making management systems are insufficient and only pass the baton to the next unwary generation.

Scoping future outbreaks: a scoping review on the outbreak prediction of the WHO Blueprint list of priority diseases

BACKGROUND

The WHO's Research and Development Blueprint priority list designates emerging diseases with the potential to generate public health emergencies for which insufficient preventive solutions exist. The list aims to reduce the time to the availability of resources that can avert public health crises. The current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic illustrates that an effective method of mitigating such crises is the pre-emptive prediction of outbreaks. This scoping review thus aimed to map and identify the evidence available to predict future outbreaks of the Blueprint diseases.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review of PubMed, Embase and Web of Science related to the evidence predicting future outbreaks of Ebola and Marburg virus, Zika virus, Lassa fever, Nipah and Henipaviral disease, Rift Valley fever, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome and Disease X. Prediction methods, outbreak features predicted and implementation of predictions were evaluated. We conducted a narrative and quantitative evidence synthesis to highlight prediction methods that could be further investigated for the prevention of Blueprint diseases and COVID-19 outbreaks.

RESULTS

Out of 3959 articles identified, we included 58 articles based on inclusion criteria. 5 major prediction methods emerged; the most frequent being spatio-temporal risk maps predicting outbreak risk periods and locations through vector and climate data. Stochastic models were predominant. Rift Valley fever was the most predicted disease. Diseases with complex sociocultural factors such as Ebola were often predicted through multifactorial risk-based estimations. 10% of models were implemented by health authorities. No article predicted Disease X outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

Spatiotemporal models for diseases with strong climatic and vectorial components, as in River Valley fever prediction, may currently best reduce the time to the availability of resources. A wide literature gap exists in the prediction of zoonoses with complex sociocultural and ecological dynamics such as Ebola, COVID-19 and especially Disease X.

A seasonal model to assess intervention strategies for preventing periodic recurrence of Lassa fever

Lassa haemorrhagic fever is listed in WHO's Blueprint priority list of diseases and pathogens prioritized for research and development, affecting several hundreds of thousands of people each year. Lassa fever is spread via infected Natal multimammate mice and also through human-to-human contacts and it is a particular threat to pregnant women. Despite its importance, relatively few mathematical models have been established for modelling Lassa fever transmission up to now. We establish and study a new compartmental model for Lassa fever transmission including asymptomatic carriers, quarantine and periodic coefficients to model annual weather changes. We determine parameter values providing the best fit to data from Nigerian states Edo and Ondo from 2018–20. We perform uncertainty analysis and PRCC analysis to assess the importance of different parameters and numerical simulations to estimate the possible effects of control measures in eradicating the disease. The results suggest that the most important parameter which might be subject of control measures is death rate of mice, while mouse-to-human and human-to-human transmission rates also significantly influence the number of infected. However, decreasing the latter two parameters seems insufficient to eradicate the disease, while a parallel application of decreasing transmission rates and increasing mouse death rate might be able to stop the epidemic.

A single-shot Lassa vaccine induces long-term immunity and protects cynomolgus monkeys against heterologous strains

A safe and protective Lassa virus vaccine is crucially needed in Western Africa to stem the recurrent outbreaks of Lassa virus infections in Nigeria and the emergence of Lassa virus in previously unaffected countries, such as Benin and Togo. Major challenges in developing a Lassa virus vaccine include the high diversity of circulating strains and their reemergence from 1 year to another. To address each of these challenges, we immunized cynomolgus monkeys with a measles virus vector expressing the Lassa virus glycoprotein and nucleoprotein of the prototypic Lassa virus strain Josiah (MeV-NP). To evaluate vaccine efficacy against heterologous strains of Lassa virus, we challenged the monkeys a month later with heterologous strains from lineage II or lineage VII, finding that the vaccine was protective against these strains. A second cohort of monkeys was challenged 1 year later with the homologous Josiah strain, finding that a single dose of MeV-NP was sufficient to protect all vaccinated monkeys. These studies demonstrate that MeV-NP can generate both long-lasting immune responses and responses that are able to protect against diverse strains of Lassa virus.

Molecular characterization of a new highly divergent Mobala related arenavirus isolated from Praomys sp. rodents

Arenaviruses represent a family of viruses that are naturally present in rodents belonging to subfamily Murinae, Neotominae or Sigmodontinae. Except for Lassa virus, little information is available on other Old-World arenaviruses. Here, we describe strain AnRB3214, a virus isolated from a presumed Praomys sp. rodent in the Central African Republic in 1981 and assigned to Ippy virus based on antigenic similarity. The strain was simultaneously sequenced on Illumina NovaSeq 6000 and MinION Mk1B devices and analysed with various bioinformatics tools. We show that the best genome coverage and depth were obtained with the Kaiju and Minimap2 classification and identification tools, on either the MinION or the Illumina reads. The genetic analysis of AnRB3214 fragments showed 68% to 79% similarity with the Mobala and Gairo mammarenaviruses at the nucleic acid level. Strain AnRB3214 had a truncated nucleoprotein smaller than that of other Old World arenaviruses. Molecular clock analysis suggests that this strain diverged from Mobala virus at least 400 years ago. Finally, this study illustrates the importance of genomics in the identification of archived viruses and expands on the diversity of African arenaviruses, because strain AnRB3214 is either a variant or a close relative of Mobala virus, and not Ippy virus.

Experimental Morogoro Virus Infection in Its Natural Host, Mastomys natalensis

Natural hosts of most arenaviruses are rodents. The human-pathogenic Lassa virus and several non-pathogenic arenaviruses such as Morogoro virus (MORV) share the same host species, namely Mastomys natalensis (M. natalensis). In this study, we investigated the history of infection and virus transmission within the natural host population. To this end, we infected M. natalensis at different ages with MORV and measured the health status of the animals, virus load in blood and organs, the development of virus-specific antibodies, and the ability of the infected individuals to transmit the virus. To explore the impact of the lack of evolutionary virus-host adaptation, experiments were also conducted with Mobala virus (MOBV), which does not share M. natalensis as a natural host. Animals infected with MORV up to two weeks after birth developed persistent infection, seroconverted and were able to transmit the virus horizontally. Animals older than two weeks at the time of infection rapidly cleared the virus. In contrast, MOBV-infected neonates neither developed persistent infection nor were able to transmit the virus. In conclusion, we demonstrate that MORV is able to develop persistent infection in its natural host, but only after inoculation shortly after birth. A related arenavirus that is not evolutionarily adapted to M. natalensis is not able to establish persistent infection. Persistently infected animals appear to be important to maintain virus transmission within the host population.

Discovery of a novel highly potent broad-spectrum heterocyclic chemical series of arenavirus cell entry inhibitors

We identified and explored the structure-activity relationship (SAR) of a novel heterocyclic chemical series of arenavirus cell entry inhibitors. Optimized lead compounds, including diphenyl-substituted imidazo[1,2-a]pyridines, benzimidazoles, and benzotriazoles exhibited low to sub-nanomolar potency against both pseudotyped and infectious Old and New World arenaviruses, attractive metabolic stability in human and most nonhuman liver microsomes as well as a lack of hERG K + channel or CYP enzyme inhibition. Moreover, the straightforward synthesis of several lead compounds (e.g., the simple high yield 3-step synthesis of imidazo[1,2-a]pyridine 37) could provide a cost-effective broad-spectrum arenavirus therapeutic that may help to minimize the cost-prohibitive burdens associated with treatments for emerging viruses in economically challenged geographical settings.

The niche of One Health approaches in Lassa fever surveillance and control

Lassa fever (LF), a zoonotic illness, represents a public health burden in West African countries where the Lassa virus (LASV) circulates among rodents. Human exposure hinges significantly on LASV ecology, which is in turn shaped by various parameters such as weather seasonality and even virus and rodent-host genetics. Furthermore, human behaviour, despite playing a key role in the zoonotic nature of the disease, critically affects either the spread or control of human-to-human transmission. Previous estimations on LF burden date from the 80s and it is unclear how the population expansion and the improvement on diagnostics and surveillance methods have affected such predictions. Although recent data have contributed to the awareness of epidemics, the real impact of LF in West African communities will only be possible with the intensification of interdisciplinary efforts in research and public health approaches. This review discusses the causes and consequences of LF from a One Health perspective, and how the application of this concept can improve the surveillance and control of this disease in West Africa.

Epidemiology of Lassa Fever

Lassa fever (LF) is a lethal hemorrhagic disease primarily concentrated in the tropical savannah regions of Nigeria and the Mano River Union countries of Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea. Endemic hotspots within these countries have had recurrent exposure to Lassa virus (LASV) via continual spillover from the host reservoir Mastomys natalensis. Increased trade and travel throughout the region have spread the virus to previously unexposed countries, including Ghana, Benin, Mali, and Côte d'Ivoire. In the absence of effective treatment or vaccines to LASV, preventative measures against Lassa fever rely heavily on reducing or eliminating rodent exposure, increasing the knowledge base surrounding the virus and disease in communities, and diminishing the stigmas faced by Lassa fever survivors.

Lassa fever in Benin: description of the 2014 and 2016 epidemics and genetic characterization of a new Lassa virus

We report two outbreaks of Lassa fever that occurred in Benin in 2014 and 2016 with 20 confirmed cases and 50% (10/20) mortality. Benin was not previously considered to be an endemic country for Lassa fever, resulting in a delay to diagnose the disease and its human transmission. Molecular investigations showed the viral genomes to be similar to that of the Togo strain, which is genetically very different from other known strains and confirms the existence of a new lineage. Endemic circulation of Lassa virus in a new territory and the genetic diversity thus confirm that this virus represents a growing threat for West African people. Given the divergence of the Benin strain from the prototypic Josiah Sierra Leone strain frequently used to generate vaccine candidates, the efficacy of vaccine candidates should also be demonstrated with this strain.

Hunting and consumption of rodents by children in the Lassa fever endemic area of Faranah, Guinea

As a consequence of the Ebola outbreak, human-animal contact has gained importance for zoonotic transmission surveillance. In Faranah (Upper Guinea), daily life is intertwined with rodents, such as the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis; a reservoir for Lassa virus (LASV). However, this contact is rarely perceived as a health risk by residents, although Lassa fever (LF) is known to be endemic to this region. Conversely, these observations remain a great concern for global health agendas. Drawing on ethnographic research involving interviews, focus group discussions, participant observations, and informal discussions over four months, we first identified factors that motivated children to hunt and consume rodents in Faranah villages, and thereafter, explored the knowledge of LF infection in children and their parents. Furthermore, we studied two dimensions of human-rodent encounters: 1) space-time of interaction and 2) factors that allowed the interaction to occur and their materiality. This approach allowed us to contextualize child-rodent contacts beyond domestic limits in the fallow fields, swamps, and at other times for this practice. A close look at these encounters provided information on rodent trapping, killing, and manipulation of cooking techniques and the risk these activities posed for the primary transmission of LASV. This research facilitated the understanding of children's exposure to M. natalensis during hunting sessions and the importance of rodent hunting, which is a part of their boyish identity in rural areas. Determination of when, where, why, and how children, rodents, and environments interacted allowed us to understand the exposures and risks important for human and animal surveillance programs in the Lassa-endemic region.

Space-Time Trends in Lassa Fever in Sierra Leone by ELISA Serostatus, 2012-2019

Lassa fever (LF) is a viral hemorrhagic disease found in Sub-Saharan Africa and is responsible for up to 300,000 cases and 5000 deaths annually. LF is highly endemic in Sierra Leone, particularly in its Eastern Province. Kenema Government Hospital (KGH) maintains one of only a few LF isolation facilities in the world with year-round diagnostic testing. Here we focus on space-time trends for LF occurring in Sierra Leone between 2012 and 2019 to provide a current account of LF in the wake of the 2014–2016 Ebola epidemic. Data were analyzed for 3277 suspected LF cases and classified as acute, recent, and non-LF or prior LF exposure using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs). Presentation rates for acute, recent, and non-LF or prior LF exposure were 6.0% (195/3277), 25.6% (838/3277), and 68.4% (2244/3277), respectively. Among 2051 non-LF or prior LF exposures, 33.2% (682/2051) tested positive for convalescent LF exposure. The overall LF case-fatality rate (CFR) was 78.5% (106/135). Both clinical presentations and confirmed LF cases declined following the Ebola epidemic. These declines coincided with an increased duration between illness onset and clinical presentation, perhaps suggesting more severe disease or presentation at later stages of illness. Acute LF cases and their corresponding CFRs peaked during the dry season (November to April). Subjects with recent (but not acute) LF exposure were more likely to present during the rainy season (May to October) than the dry season (p < 0.001). The findings here suggest that LF remains endemic in Sierra Leone and that caseloads are likely to resume at levels observed prior to the Ebola epidemic. The results provide insight on the current epidemiological profile of LF in Sierra Leone to facilitate LF vaccine studies and accentuate the need for LF cohort studies and continued advancements in LF diagnostics.

Bridging the gap: Using reservoir ecology and human serosurveys to estimate Lassa virus spillover in West Africa

Forecasting the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir populations of wild or domestic animals is essential for the effective deployment of interventions such as wildlife vaccination or culling. Due to the sporadic nature of spillover events and limited availability of data, developing and validating robust, spatially explicit, predictions is challenging. Recent efforts have begun to make progress in this direction by capitalizing on machine learning methodologies. An important weakness of existing approaches, however, is that they generally rely on combining human and reservoir infection data during the training process and thus conflate risk attributable to the prevalence of the pathogen in the reservoir population with the risk attributed to the realized rate of spillover into the human population. Because effective planning of interventions requires that these components of risk be disentangled, we developed a multi-layer machine learning framework that separates these processes. Our approach begins by training models to predict the geographic range of the primary reservoir and the subset of this range in which the pathogen occurs. The spillover risk predicted by the product of these reservoir specific models is then fit to data on realized patterns of historical spillover into the human population. The result is a geographically specific spillover risk forecast that can be easily decomposed and used to guide effective intervention. Applying our method to Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that regularly spills over into the human population across West Africa, results in a model that explains a modest but statistically significant portion of geographic variation in historical patterns of spillover. When combined with a mechanistic mathematical model of infection dynamics, our spillover risk model predicts that 897,700 humans are infected by Lassa virus each year across West Africa, with Nigeria accounting for more than half of these human infections.

The 2019 emergence of SARS-CoV-2 is a grim reminder of the threat animal-borne pathogens pose to human health. Even prior to SARS-CoV-2, the spillover of pathogens from animal reservoirs was a persistent problem, with pathogens such as Ebola, Nipah, and Lassa regularly but unpredictably causing outbreaks. Machine-learning models that anticipate when and where pathogen transmission from animals to humans is likely to occur would help guide surveillance efforts and preemptive countermeasures like information campaigns or vaccination programs. We develop a novel machine learning framework that uses datasets describing the distribution of a virus within its host and the range of its animal host, along with data on spatial patterns of human immunity, to infer rates of animal-to-human transmission across a region. By training the model on data from the animal host alone, our framework allows rigorous validation of spillover predictions using human data. We apply our framework to Lassa fever, a viral disease of West Africa that is spread to humans by rodents, and use the predictions to update estimates of Lassa virus infections in humans. Our results suggest that Nigeria is most at risk for the emergence of Lassa virus, and should be prioritized for outbreak-surveillance.

Early onset of neurological features differentiates two outbreaks of Lassa fever in Ebonyi state, Nigeria during 2017-2018

Lassa fever (LF) is an acute viral haemorrhagic illness with various non-specific clinical manifestations. Neurological symptoms are rare at the early stage of the disease, but may be seen in late stages, in severely ill patients.The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological evolution, socio-demographic profiles, clinical characteristics, and outcomes of patients seen during two Lassa fever outbreaks in Ebonyi State, between December 2017 and December 2018. Routinely collected clinical data from all patients admitted to the Virology Centre of the hospital during the period were analysed retrospectively. Out of a total of 83 cases, 70(84.3%) were RT-PCR confirmed while 13 (15.7%) were probable cases. Sixty-nine (83.1%) patients were seen in outbreak 1 of whom 53.6% were urban residents, while 19%, 15%, and 10% were farmers, students and health workers respectively. There were 14 (16.8%) patients, seen in second outbreak with 92.9% rural residents. There were differences in clinical symptoms, signs and laboratory findings between the two outbreaks. The case fatality rates were 29.9% in outbreak 1 and 85.7% for outbreak 2. Neurological features and abnormal laboratory test results were associated with higher mortality rate, seen in outbreak 2. This study revealed significant differences between the two outbreaks. Of particular concern was the higher case fatality during the outbreak 2 which may be from a more virulent strain of the Lassa virus. This has important public health implications and further molecular studies are needed to better define its characteristics.