Assessing the relationship between vector indices and dengue transmission: a systematic review of the evidence

Spatial and temporal analysis on the impact of ultra-low volume indoor insecticide spraying on Aedes aegypti household density

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti is the primary mosquito vector for several arboviruses, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses, which cause frequent outbreaks of human disease in tropical and subtropical regions. Control of these outbreaks relies on vector control, commonly in the form of insecticide sprays that target adult female mosquitoes. However, the spatial coverage and frequency of sprays needed to optimize effectiveness are unclear. In this study, we characterize the effect of ultra-low-volume (ULV) indoor spraying of pyrethroid insecticides on Ae. aegypti abundance within households. We also evaluate the effects of spray events during recent time periods or in neighboring households. Improved understanding of the duration and distance of the impact of a spray intervention on Ae. aegypti populations can inform vector control interventions, in addition to modeling efforts that contrast vector control strategies.

METHODS

This project analyzes data from two large-scale experiments that involved six cycles of indoor pyrethroid spray applications in 2 years in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We developed spatial multi-level models to disentangle the reduction in Ae. aegypti abundance that resulted from (i) recent ULV treatment within households and (ii) ULV treatment of adjacent or nearby households. We compared fits of models across a range of candidate weighting schemes for the spray effect, based on different temporal and spatial decay functions to understand lagged ULV effects.

RESULTS

Our results suggested that the reduction of Ae. aegypti in a household was mainly due to spray events occurring within the same household, with no additional effect of sprays that occurred in neighboring households. Effectiveness of a spray intervention should be measured based on time since the most recent spray event, as we found no cumulative effect of sequential sprays. Based on our model, we estimated the spray effect is reduced by 50% approximately 28 days after the spray event.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction of Ae. aegypti in a household was mainly determined by the number of days since the last spray intervention in that same household, highlighting the importance of spray coverage in high-risk areas with a spray frequency determined by local viral transmission dynamics.

Automatic mapping of high-risk urban areas for Aedes aegypti infestation based on building facade image analysis

BACKGROUND

Dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, whose viruses are transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti, significantly impact human health worldwide. Despite the recent development of promising vaccines against the dengue virus, controlling these arbovirus diseases still depends on mosquito surveillance and control. Nonetheless, several studies have shown that these measures are not sufficiently effective or ineffective. Identifying higher-risk areas in a municipality and directing control efforts towards them could improve it. One tool for this is the premise condition index (PCI); however, its measure requires visiting all buildings. We propose a novel approach capable of predicting the PCI based on facade street-level images, which we call PCINet.

METHODOLOGY

Our study was conducted in Campinas, a one million-inhabitant city in São Paulo, Brazil. We surveyed 200 blocks, visited their buildings, and measured the three traditional PCI components (building and backyard conditions and shading), the facade conditions (taking pictures of them), and other characteristics. We trained a deep neural network with the pictures taken, creating a computational model that can predict buildings' conditions based on the view of their facades. We evaluated PCINet in a scenario emulating a real large-scale situation, where the model could be deployed to automatically monitor four regions of Campinas to identify risk areas.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

PCINet produced reasonable results in differentiating the facade condition into three levels, and it is a scalable strategy to triage large areas. The entire process can be automated through data collection from facade data sources and inferences through PCINet. The facade conditions correlated highly with the building and backyard conditions and reasonably well with shading and backyard conditions. The use of street-level images and PCINet could help to optimize Ae. aegypti surveillance and control, reducing the number of in-person visits necessary to identify buildings, blocks, and neighborhoods at higher risk from mosquito and arbovirus diseases.

Where does Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) really breed in a Mediterranean residential area? Results from a field study in Valencia, Eastern Spain

Since its introduction in Spain in 2004, Aedes albopictus has rapidly spread across the country. Its aggressive biting behaviour causes nuisance, limiting outdoor activities. Also, its role as a vector of several arboviruses implies a major public health risk, with several cases of autochthonous dengue having been reported nationwide over the past few years. Control strategies usually focus on interventions in breeding sites. As such, accurate knowledge of the main larval habitats becomes a major priority in infested areas. A detailed identification of breeding sites of Ae. albopictus was carried out in the outdoors of 60 residential properties during July-August 2022 in El Vedat de Torrent (Valencia, Eastern Spain), an area recently colonised by this species. A total of 1444 real and potential breeding sites were examined. The most abundant potential larval habitat were plant pot plates (6.48 units/house), although a low infestation level was found, both for larvae (2.06% positivity, x̄ = 30.5 larvae/container), and pupae (0.51%, x̄ = 2.5 pupae/container). A total of 7715 larvae and 205 pupae were found in a disused flooded water pool depuration system. Animal drinkers, buckets and irrigation water containers were found to be the most common positive containers. No statistical difference was observed among the different container materials. A general statistical increase of 1 larva per 11.7 ml of water in breeding sites was detected. Breeding sites of other species such as Culex pipiens (n = 2) and Culex modestus (n = 1) were also rarely found in this residential area. To our knowledge, this is the first aedic index study carried out in Europe, and it provides valuable information about the main domestic breeding habitats of Ae. albopictus, which can greatly improve control programmes.

Behaviour and distribution of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and their relation to dengue incidence in two transmission hotspots in coastal Ecuador

BACKGROUND

Dengue (DENV) transmission is endemic throughout coastal Ecuador, showing heterogeneous incidence patterns in association with fine-scale variation in Aedes aegypti vector populations and other factors. Here, we investigated the impact of micro-climate and neighbourhood-level variation in urbanization on Aedes abundance, resting behaviour and associations with dengue incidence in two endemic areas.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Aedes aegypti were collected in Quinindé and Portoviejo, two urban cantons with hyperendemic dengue transmission in coastal Ecuador. Aedes vectors were sampled in and around houses within urban and peri-urban neighbourhoods at four time periods. We tested for variation in vector abundance and resting behaviour in relation to neighbourhood urbanization level and microclimatic factors. Aedes abundance increased towards the end of the rainy season, was significantly higher in Portoviejo than in Quinindé, and in urban than in peri-urban neighbourhoods. Aedes vectors were more likely to rest inside houses in Portoviejo but had similar abundance in indoor and outdoor resting collections in Quinindé. Over the study period, DENV incidence was lower in Quinindé than in Portoviejo. Relationships between weekly Ae. aegypti abundance and DENV incidence were highly variable between trapping methods; with positive associations being detected only between BG-sentinel and outdoor Prokopack collections.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Aedes aegypti abundance was significantly higher in urban than peri-urban neighbourhoods, and their resting behaviour varied between study sites. This fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in Ae. aegypti abundance and behaviour could generate site-specific variation in human exposure and the effectiveness of indoor-based interventions. The trap-dependent nature of associations between Aedes abundance and local DENV incidence indicates further work is needed to identify robust entomological indicators of infection risk.

Insights and Challenges for the Development of Mosquito Control Action Thresholds Using Historical Mosquito Surveillance and Climate Datasets

Strategies to advance action threshold development can benefit both civilian and military vector control operations. The Anastasia Mosquito Control District (AMCD) has curated an extensive record database of surveillance programs and operational control activities in St. Johns County, Florida, since 2004. A thorough exploratory data analysis was performed on historical mosquito surveillance and county-wide climate data to identify climate predictors that could be used in constructing proactive threshold models for initiating control of Aedes, Culex, and Anopheles vector mosquitoes. Species counts pulled from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light trap (2004-2019) and BG trap (2014-2019) collection records and climate parameters of temperature (minimum, maximum, average), rainfall, and relative humidity were used in two iterations of generalized linear models. Climate readings were incorporated into models 1) in the form of continuous measurements, or 2) for categorization into number of "hot," "wet," or "humid" days by exceedance of selected biological index threshold values. Models were validated with tests of residual error, comparison of model effects, and predictive capability on testing data from the two recent surveillance seasons 2020 and 2021. Two iterations of negative binomial regression models were constructed for 6 species groups: container Aedes (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus), standing water Culex (Cx. nigripalpus, Cx. quinquefasciatus), floodwater Aedes (Ae. atlanticus, Ae. infirmatus), salt-marsh Aedes (Ae. taeniorhyncus, Ae. sollicitans), swamp water Anopheles (An. crucians), and a combined Total Mosquitoes group. Final significant climate predictors varied substantially between species groups. Validation of models with testing data displayed limited predictive abilities of both model iterations. The most significant climate predictors for floodwater Aedes, the dominant and operationally influential species group in the county, were either total precipitation or frequency of precipitation events (number of "wet" days) at two to four weeks before trap collection week. Challenges hindering the construction of threshold models were discussed. Insights gained from these models provide initial feedback for streamlining the AMCD mosquito control program and analytical recommendations for future modelling efforts of interested mosquito control programs, in addition to generalized guidance for deployed armed forces personnel with needs of mosquito control but lacking active surveillance programs.

Predicting dengue transmission rates by comparing different machine learning models with vector indices and meteorological data

Machine learning algorithms (ML) are receiving a lot of attention in the development of predictive models for monitoring dengue transmission rates. Previous work has focused only on specific weather variables and algorithms, and there is still a need for a model that uses more variables and algorithms that have higher performance. In this study, we use vector indices and meteorological data as predictors to develop the ML models. We trained and validated seven ML algorithms, including an ensemble ML method, and compared their performance using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) with the area under the curve (AUC), accuracy and F1 score. Our results show that an ensemble ML such as XG Boost, AdaBoost and Random Forest perform better than the logistics regression, Naïve Bayens, decision tree, and support vector machine (SVM), with XGBoost having the highest AUC, accuracy and F1 score. Analysis of the importance of the variables showed that the container index was the least important. By removing this variable, the ML models improved their performance by at least 6% in AUC and F1 score. Our result provides a framework for future studies on the use of predictive models in the development of an early warning system.

D. R, Lakshmi M. I, Isvaran K, Ghosh SK, Ishtiaq F. Determinants of Aedes mosquito larval ecology in a heterogeneous urban environment- a longitudinal study in Bengaluru, India

BACKGROUND

Aedes-borne disease risk is associated with contemporary urbanization practices where city developing structures function as a catalyst for creating mosquito breeding habitats. We lack better understanding on how the links between landscape ecology and urban geography contribute to the prevalence and abundance of mosquito and pathogen spread.

METHODS

An outdoor longitudinal study in Bengaluru (Karnataka, India) was conducted between February 2021 and June 2022 to examine the effects of macrohabitat types on the diversity and distribution of larval habitats, mosquito species composition, and body size to quantify the risk of dengue outbreak in the landscape context.

FINDINGS

A total of 8,717 container breeding sites were inspected, of these 1,316 were wet breeding habitats. A total of 1,619 mosquito larvae representing 16 species from six macrohabitats and nine microhabitats were collected. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus were the dominant species and significantly higher in artificial habitats than in natural habitats. Breeding preference ratio for Aedes species was high in grinding stones and storage containers. The Aedes infestation indices were higher than the WHO threshold and showed significant linear increase from Barren habitat to High density areas. We found Ae. albopictus breeding in sympatry with Ae. aegypti had shorter wing length.

CONCLUSIONS

A large proportion of larval habitats were man-made artificial containers. Landscape ecology drives mosquito diversity and abundance even at a small spatial scale which could be affecting the localized outbreaks. Our findings showed that sampling strategies for mosquito surveillance must include urban environments with non-residential locations and dengue transmission reduction programmes should focus on 'neighbourhood surveillance' as well to prevent and control the rising threat of Aedes-borne diseases.

Identification of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus eggs based on image processing and elliptic fourier analysis

Dengue hemorrhagic fever is a worldwide epidemic caused by dengue virus and spread by infected female mosquitoes. The two main mosquito species vectors of the dengue virus are Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Conventionally, the identification of these two species' egg is time-consuming which makes vector control more difficult. However, although attempts on efficiency improvements by providing automatic identification have been conducted, the earliest stage is at the larval stage. In addition, there are currently no studies on classifying to distinguish the two vectors during the egg stage based on their digital image. A total of 140 egg images of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus were collected and validated by rearing them individually to become adult mosquitoes. Image processing and elliptic Fourier analysis were carried out to extract and describe the shape difference of the two vectors' eggs. Machine learning algorithms were then used to classify the shape signatures. Morphometrically, the two species' eggs were significantly different, which Aedes albopictus were smaller in size. Egg-shape contour reconstructions of principal components and Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) revealed that there is a significant difference (p value [Formula: see text]) in shape between two species' eggs at the posterior end. Based on Wilk's lambda of the MANOVA results, the classification could be done using only the first 3 principal components. Classification of the test data yielded an accuracy of 85.00% and F1 score 84.21% with Linear Discriminant Analysis applying default hyperparameter. Alternatively, k-Nearest Neighbors with optimal hyperparameter yielded a higher classification result with 87.50% and 87.18% of accuracy and F1 score, respectively. These results demonstrate that the proposed method can be used to classify Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus eggs based on their digital image. This method provides a foundation for improving the identification and surveillance of the two vectors and decision making in developing vector control strategies.

Distribution and Abundance of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Benin, West Africa

Updated information on the distribution and abundance of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus is crucial to prepare African countries, such as Benin, for possible arboviral disease outbreaks. This study aims to evaluate the geographical distribution, abundance and biting behaviour of these two vectors in Benin. Three sampling techniques were used in this study. The collection of Aedes spp. adults were made through human landing catch (HLC), immatures were captured with the use of ovitraps, and a dipping technique was used for the collection of Aedes spp. in 23 communes located along the North-South and East-West transect of Benin. Adult Aedes mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors using HLC. Mosquito eggs, larvae and pupae were collected from containers and ovitraps. The adult mosquitoes were morphologically identified, then confirmed using a polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Overall, 12,424 adult specimens of Aedes spp. were collected, out of which 76.53% (n = 9508) and 19.32% (n = 2400) were morphologically identified as Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Geographically, Ae. aegypti was found across the North-South transect unlike Ae. albopictus, which was only encountered in the southern part of the country, with a great preponderance in Avrankou. Furthermore, an exophagic behaviour was observed in both vectors. This updated distribution of Aedes mosquito species in Benin will help to accurately identify areas that are at risk of arboviral diseases and better plan for future vector control interventions.

Twenty-two years of dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh: epidemiology, clinical spectrum, serotypes, and future disease risks

Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne disease and has become a major public health threat, particularly for tropical and subtropical countries including Bangladesh. This comprehensive review aims to summarize the overall scenario of dengue, including disease burden, clinical spectrum, seroprevalence, circulating serotypes/genotypes, and spatial distribution since the first recorded outbreak in Bangladesh. Since the first recorded outbreak in 2000, dengue epidemiology has shown the typical epidemic pattern with more frequent and bigger outbreaks and gradual geographic expansion to non-endemic regions in Bangladesh. For instance, highly confined Rohingya refugee camps that provide shelters to nearly 1.2 million forcibly displaced vulnerable Myanmar nationals in Cox's Bazar district confronted a massive outbreak in 2022. Recent major outbreaks are found to be associated with the emergence of serotype DENV-3, which was undetected for a long time. Consequently, changes in serotypes might be attributed to increased severity in clinical manifestation in recent years. The existing weak surveillance and risk management systems are inadequate to deal with impending dengue risks. The healthcare system, particularly at the district level, is not prepared to manage impending large-scale dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh. Our findings would contribute to the development of strategies for dengue control and management in Bangladesh as well as other similar settings elsewhere in the world.

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) ecology, biology, behaviour, and implications on arbovirus transmission in Thailand: Review

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Aedes) transmit highly pathogenic viruses such as dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika which can cause life-threatening diseases in humans. They are the most important vectors of arboviruses in Thailand. Their vectorial capacity (VC) is highly complex mainly due to the interplay between biotic and abiotic factors that vary in time and space. A literature survey was conducted to collate and discuss recent research regarding the influence of Aedes vector biology, behaviour, and ecology on arbovirus transmission in Thailand. The survey followed guidelines of preferred reporting items of systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA). All fields, keyword search was conducted in the Web of Science database for the period of 2000-2021. The search yielded 821 records on Ae. aegypti and 293 records on Aedes albopictus, of which 77 were selected for discussion. Genomic studies showed that there is a high genetic variation in Aedes albopictus whereas Ae. aegypti generally shows low genetic variation. Along with genetically unstable arboviruses, the interaction between Aedes and arboviruses is largely regulated by genomic events such as genetic mutations and immune response protein factors. Temperature and precipitation are the major climatic events driving arbovirus transmission. Human exposure risk factors are mainly due to multiple feeding patterns, including endophagy by Aedes albopictus and zoophagic behaviour of Ae. aegypti as well as diverse human-associated breeding sites. Integration of the One Health approach in control interventions is a priority with a rigorous focus on Aedes-arbovirus surveillance as a complementary strategy.

Differences in Longevity and Temperature-Driven Extrinsic Incubation Period Correlate with Varying Dengue Risk in the Arizona-Sonora Desert Region

Dengue transmission is determined by a complex set of interactions between the environment, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, dengue viruses, and humans. Emergence in new geographic areas can be unpredictable, with some regions having established mosquito populations for decades without locally acquired transmission. Key factors such as mosquito longevity, temperature-driven extrinsic incubation period (EIP), and vector-human contact can strongly influence the potential for disease transmission. To assess how these factors interact at the edge of the geographical range of dengue virus transmission, we conducted mosquito sampling in multiple urban areas located throughout the Arizona-Sonora desert region during the summer rainy seasons from 2013 to 2015. Mosquito population age structure, reflecting mosquito survivorship, was measured using a combination of parity analysis and relative gene expression of an age-related gene, SCP-1. Bloodmeal analysis was conducted on field collected blood-fed mosquitoes. Site-specific temperature was used to estimate the EIP, and this predicted EIP combined with mosquito age were combined to estimate the abundance of "potential" vectors (i.e., mosquitoes old enough to survive the EIP). Comparisons were made across cities by month and year. The dengue endemic cities Hermosillo and Ciudad Obregon, both in the state of Sonora, Mexico, had higher abundance of potential vectors than non-endemic Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. Interestingly, Tucson, Arizona consistently had a higher estimated abundance of potential vectors than dengue endemic regions of Sonora, Mexico. There were no observed city-level differences in species composition of blood meals. Combined, these data offer insights into the critical factors required for dengue transmission at the ecological edge of the mosquito's range. However, further research is needed to integrate an understanding of how social and additional environmental factors constrain and enhance dengue transmission in emerging regions.

Sociodemographic and environmental factors associated with dengue, Zika, and chikungunya among adolescents from two Brazilian capitals

Among the emerging and reemerging arboviral diseases, Zika, dengue and chikungunya deserve special attention due to their wide geographical distribution and clinical severity. The three arboviruses are transmitted by the same vector and can present similar clinical syndromes, bringing challenges to their identification and register. Demographic characteristics and individual and contextual social factors have been associated with the three arboviral diseases. However, little is known about such associations among adolescents, whose relationships with the social environment are different from those of adult populations, implying potentially different places, types, and degrees of exposure to the vector, particularly in the school context. This study aims to identify sociodemographic and environmental risk factors for the occurrence of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya in a cohort of adolescents from the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents-ERICA-in the cities of Rio de Janeiro/RJ and Fortaleza/CE, from January 2015 to March 2019. Cases were defined as adolescents with laboratory or clinical-epidemiological diagnosis of Zika, dengue, or chikungunya, notified and registered in the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN). The cases were identified by linkage between the databases of the ERICA cohort and of SINAN. Multilevel Cox regression was employed to estimate hazard ratios (HR) as measures of association and respective 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). In comparison with adolescents living in lower socioeconomic conditions, the risk of becoming ill due to any of the three studied arboviral diseases was lower among those living in better socioeconomic conditions (HR = 0.43; 95%CI: 0.19-0.99; p = 0.047) and in the adolescents who attended school in the afternoon period (HR = 0.17; 95%CI: 0.06-0.47; p<0.001). When compared to areas whose Building Infestation Index (BII) for Aedes aegypti was considered satisfactory, a BII in the school region classified as "alert" and "risk" was associated with a higher risk of arboviral diseases (HR = 1.62, 95%CI: 0.98-2.70; p = 0.062; HR = 3.72, 95%CI: 1.27-10.9; p = 0.017, respectively). These findings indicate that living in less favored socioeconomic conditions, attending school in the morning, and having a high BII for Ae. aegypti in school's region can contribute to an increased risk of infection by Zika, dengue, or chikungunya in adolescents. The identification of residential or school areas based on those variables can contribute to the implementation of control measures in population groups and priority locations.

Weather-Based Prediction Models for the Prevalence of Dengue Vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

Dengue is an important vector-borne disease transmitted by the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. In the absence of an effective vaccine, vector control has become the key intervention tool in controlling the disease. Vector densities are significantly affected by the changing weather patterns of a region. The present study was conducted in three selected localities, i.e., urban Bandaranayakapura, semiurban Galgamuwa, and rural Buluwala in the Kurunegala district of Sri Lanka to assess spatial and temporal distribution of dengue vector mosquitoes and to predict vector prevalence with respect to changing weather parameters. Monthly ovitrap surveys and larval surveys were conducted from January to December 2019 and continued further in the urban area up to December 2021. Aedes aegypti was found moderately in the urban area and to a lesser extent in semiurban but not in the rural area. Aedes albopictus had the preference for rural over urban areas. Aedes aegypti preferred indoor breeding, while Ae. albopictus preferred both indoor and outdoor. For Ae. albopictus, ovitrap index (OVI), premise index (PI), container index (CI), and Breteau index (BI) correlated with both the rainfall (RF) and relative humidity (RH) of the urban site. Correlations were stronger between OVI and RH and also between BI and RF. Linear regression analysis was fitted, and a prediction model was developed using BI and RF with no lag period (R ² (sq) = 86.3%; F = 53.12; R ² (pred) = 63.12%; model: Log10 (BI) = 0.153 + 0.286 ^∗ Log10 (RF); RMSE = 1.49). Another prediction model was developed using OVI and RH with one month lag period (R ² (sq) = 70.21%; F = 57.23; model: OVI predicted = 15.1 + 0.528 ^∗ Lag 1 month RH; RMSE = 2.01). These two models can be used to monitor the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus in urban settings to predict possible dengue outbreaks.

Impact of physicochemical parameters of Aedes aegypti breeding habitats on mosquito productivity and the size of emerged adult mosquitoes in Ouagadougou City, Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

Outbreaks of dengue fever caused by viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are repeated occurrences in West Africa. In recent years, Burkina Faso has experienced major dengue outbreaks, most notably in 2016 and 2017 when 80% of cases were recorded in Ouagadougou City (Central Health Region). In order to better understand the ecology of this vector and to provide information for use in developing control measures, a study on the characteristics of Aedes container breeding sites and the productivity of such sites, as measured by the abundance of immature stages and resultant adult body size, was undertaken in three health districts (Baskuy, Bogodogo and Nongremassom) of Ouagadougou.

METHODS

Adult mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors in 643 households during the rainy season from August to October 2018. The presence of water containers was systematically recorded and the containers examined for the presence or absence of larvae. Characteristics of the container breeding sites, including size of the container and temperature, pH and conductivity of the water contained within, were recorded as well as the volume of water. Traditional Stegomyia indices were calculated as quantitative indicators of the risk of dengue outbreaks; generalised mixed models were fitted to larval and pupal densities, and the contribution of each covariate to the model was evaluated by the Z-value and associated P-value.

RESULTS

A total of 1061 container breeding sites were inspected, of which 760 contained immature stages of Ae. aegypti ('positive' containers). The most frequent container breeding sites found in each health district were tyres and both medium (buckets/cans/pots) and large (bins/barrels/drums) containers; these containers were also the most productive larval habitats and the types that most frequently tested positive. Of the Stegomyia indices, the Breteau, House and Container indices exceeded WHO dengue risk thresholds. Generalised linear mixed models showed that larval and pupal abundances were associated with container type, physicochemical characteristics of the water and collection month, but there were significant differences among container types and among health districts. Aedes aegypti body size was positively associated with type and diameter of the container, as well as with electrical conductivity of the water, and negatively associated with pH and temperature of the water and with the level of exposure of the container to sunlight.

CONCLUSION

This study provides data on putative determinants of the productivity of habitats regarding Ae. aegypti immature stages. These data are useful to better understand Ae. aegypti proliferation. The results suggest that identifying and targeting the most productive container breeding sites could contribute to dengue vector control strategies in Burkina Faso.

Evaluation of Methods for Collecting Mosquitoes (Culicidae: Diptera) in Canopy and Ground Strata in the Brazilian Savanna

The hand-net is the standard method for capturing mosquitoes with sylvatic diurnal activity in disease outbreaks in Brazil. However, occupational risks and biases related to the collectors' abilities and attractiveness are important limitations. In this study, we compared hand-nets with automatic traps (CDC) associated to CO₂ and BG-Lure^® in the Vassununga State Park, a Brazilian Savanna protection area. The collections carried out over 27 days on the ground and the forest canopy. A total of 1555 mosquitoes were obtained in 20 taxa. The diversity index ranged between 1.12 and 1.79 and the dominance index from 0.22 to 0.40. The dominant species on the ground was Aedes scapularis (46.0%), and in the canopy, Hg. janthinomys/capricornii (31.9%). Haemagogus leucocelaenus was rare (n = 2). The hand-net resulted in the greatest diversity and abundance of species in both strata, followed by the traps associated with CO₂. A low degree of similarity was observed between the hand-net on the ground compared to the other capture methods. The use of BG-Lure^® alone resulted in a low number of specimens. In conclusion, the hand-net is still the method of choice for collecting arbovirus vectors in the diurnal period, especially yellow fever vectors.

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on Dengue Vector Densities in Southeast Asia through Process-Based Modeling

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes are major vectors for several human diseases of global importance, such as dengue and yellow fever. Their life cycles and hosted arboviruses are climate sensitive and thus expected to be impacted by climate change. Most studies investigating climate change impacts on Aedes at global or continental scales focused on their future global distribution changes, whereas a single study focused on its effects on Ae. aegypti densities regionally.

OBJECTIVES

A process-based approach was used to model densities of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and their potential evolution with climate change using a panel of nine CMIP6 climate models and climate scenarios ranging from strong to low mitigation measures at the Southeast Asian scale and for the next 80 y.

METHODS

The process-based model described, through a system of ordinary differential equations, the variations of mosquito densities in 10 compartments, corresponding to 10 different stages of mosquito life cycle, in response to temperature and precipitation variations. Local field data were used to validate model outputs.

RESULTS

We show that both species densities will globally increase due to future temperature increases. In Southeast Asia by the end of the century, Ae. aegypti densities are expected to increase from 25% with climate mitigation measures to 46% without; Ae. albopictus densities are expected to increase from 13%-21%, respectively. However, we find spatially contrasted responses at the seasonal scales with a significant decrease in Ae. albopictus densities in lowlands during summer in the future.

DISCUSSION

These results contrast with previous results, which brings new insight on the future impacts of climate change on Aedes densities. Major sources of uncertainties, such as mosquito model parametrization and climate model uncertainties, were addressed to explore the limits of such modeling. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11068.

Spatial association of Aedes aegypti with dengue fever hotspots in an endemic region

Background and objective

Dengue is a vector-borne viral disease usually transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Around the world, the relationship between local vector density and frequency of dengue cases is being explored and needs further evidence. This study aimed to analyze the potential spatial relationships between the dengue vector (Aedes aegypti) and dengue cases in the megacity of Bangladesh during the 2019 dengue outbreak.

Methods

Vector density measures were used to estimate spatial associations with dengue case distribution. Location was determined for 364 dengue cases who were admitted to Dhaka Medical College Hospital over a period of 4 months. Data were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire, and prior consent was ensured before participation. The Moran global index, Getis-Ord Gi∗, ordinary least squares regression, geographically weighted regression and count data regression methods were used for spatial analysis.

Results

We found that dengue case distribution was not associated with immature Aedes aegypti mosquito (larvae) density across the city. The relationship between larval density measured by the Breteau Index (BI) and House Index (HI) with dengue cases was nonstationary and not statistically significant.

Conclusion

The location of dengue cases appears to be unrelated to vector distribution and vector density. These findings should prompt the search for other transmission risk factors.

Species-specific climate Suitable Conditions Index and dengue transmission in Guangdong, China

Background

Optimal climatic conditions for dengue vector mosquito species may play a significant role in dengue transmission. We previously developed a species-specific Suitable Conditions Index (SCI) for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, respectively. These SCIs rank geographic locations based on their climatic suitability for each of these two dengue vector species and theoretically define parameters for transmission probability. The aim of the study presented here was to use these SCIs together with socio-environmental factors to predict dengue outbreaks in the real world.

Methods

A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the relationship between vector species-specific SCI and autochthonous dengue cases after accounting for potential confounders in Guangdong, China. The potential interactive effect between the SCI for Ae. albopictus and the SCI for Ae. aegypti on dengue transmission was assessed.

Results

The SCI for Ae. aegypti was found to be positively associated with autochthonous dengue transmission (incidence rate ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.09). A significant interaction effect between the SCI of Ae. albopictus and the SCI of Ae. aegypti was found, with the SCI of Ae. albopictus significantly reducing the effect of the SCI of Ae. aegypti on autochthonous dengue cases. The difference in SCIs had a positive effect on autochthonous dengue cases.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that dengue fever is more transmittable in regions with warmer weather conditions (high SCI for Ae. aegypti). The SCI of Ae. aegypti would be a useful index to predict dengue transmission in Guangdong, China, even in dengue epidemic regions with Ae. albopictus present. The results also support the benefit of the SCI for evaluating dengue outbreak risk in terms of vector sympatry and interactions in the absence of entomology data in future research.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05453-x.

Effects of the Developing and Using a Model to Predict Dengue Risk Villages Based on Subdistrict Administrative Organization in Southern Thailand

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of developing and using a model to predict dengue risk in villages and of a larval indices surveillance system for 2372 households in 10 Thai villages. A community participatory action research method was used in five steps: (1) community preparation covering all stakeholders, (2) assessment of the understanding of a dengue solution and a larval indices surveillance system, (3) development of a prediction and intervention model for dengue risk villages, (4) implementation of the model that responds to all stakeholders, and (5) evaluation of the effects of using the model. The questionnaires to assess and evaluate were validated and reliability tested. The chi-square test and Fisher's exact test were used to analyze the quantitative data collected by means of questionnaires. Thematic analysis was applied to the qualitative data collected through interviews. The results found that the model consisted of six main activities, including (1) setting team leader responsibility, (2) situation assessment, (3) prediction of the dengue risk in villages, (4) the six steps of the larval indices surveillance system, (5) the understanding of the dengue solution and the understanding of the larval indices surveillance system training program, and (6) local wisdom innovation. The effects of using the model showed a statistically significant increase in correct understanding among 932 family leaders, 109 village health volunteers, and 59 student leaders regarding dengue prevention and control (p < 0.05). The larval indices and dengue morbidity were diminished and related to the nine themes present in the community leaders' reflections and to the satisfaction of the community members. Hence, local administrative organizations should use community-based approaches as the subdistrict dengue solution innovation to reduce the dengue problem.

Monitoring human arboviral diseases through wastewater surveillance: Challenges, progress and future opportunities

Arboviral diseases are caused by a group of viruses spread by the bite of infected arthropods. Amongst these, dengue, Zika, west nile fever and yellow fever cause the greatest economic and social impact. Arboviral epidemics have increased in frequency, magnitude and geographical extent over the past decades and are expected to continue increasing with climate change and expanding urbanisation. Arboviral prevalence is largely underestimated, as most infections are asymptomatic, nevertheless existing surveillance systems are based on passive reporting of loosely defined clinical syndromes with infrequent laboratory confirmation. Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS), which has been demonstrated to be useful for monitoring diseases with significant asymptomatic populations including COVID19 and polio, could be a useful complement to arboviral surveillance. We review the current state of knowledge and identify key factors that affect the feasibility of monitoring arboviral diseases by WBS to include viral shedding loads by infected persons, the persistence of shed arboviruses and the efficiency of their recovery from sewage. We provide a simple model on the volume of wastewater that needs to be processed for detection of arboviruses, in face of lower arboviral shedding rates. In all, this review serves to reflect on the key challenges that need to be addressed and overcome for successful implementation of arboviral WBS.

Assessing the associations between Aedes larval indices and dengue risk in Kalutara district, Sri Lanka: a hierarchical time series analysis from 2010 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a major public health problem in Sri Lanka. Aedes vector surveillance and monitoring of larval indices are routine, long-established public health practices in the country. However, the association between Aedes larval indices and dengue incidence is poorly understood. It is crucial to evaluate lagged effects and threshold values of Aedes larval indices to set pragmatic targets for sustainable vector control interventions.

METHODS

Monthly Aedes larval indices and dengue cases in all 10 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions in Kalutara district were obtained from 2010 to 2019. Using a novel statistical approach, a distributed lag non-linear model and a two-staged hierarchical meta-analysis, we estimated the overall non-linear and delayed effects of the Premise Index (PI), Breteau Index (BI) and Container Index (CI) on dengue incidence in Kalutara district. A set of MOH division-specific variables were evaluated within the same meta-analytical framework to determine their moderator effects on dengue risk. Using generalized additive models, we assessed the utility of Aedes larval indices in predicting dengue incidence.

RESULTS

We found that all three larval indices were associated with dengue risk at a lag of 1 to 2 months. The relationship between PI and dengue was homogeneous across MOH divisions, whereas that with BI and CI was heterogeneous. The threshold values of BI, PI and CI associated with dengue risk were 2, 15 and 45, respectively. All three indices showed a low to moderate accuracy in predicting dengue risk in Kalutara district.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed the potential of vector surveillance information in Kalutara district in developing a threshold-based, location-specific early warning system with a lead time of 2 months. The estimated thresholds are nonetheless time-bound and may not be universally applicable. Whenever longitudinal vector surveillance data areavailable, the methodological framework we propose here can be used to estimate location-specific Aedes larval index thresholds in any other dengue-endemic setting.

Effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and local weather on Aedes dvector activity from 2010 to 2018 in Kalutara district, Sri Lanka: a two-stage hierarchical analysis

BACKGROUND

Dengue, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, is a major public health problem in Sri Lanka. Weather affects the abundance, feeding patterns, and longevity of Aedes vectors and hence the risk of dengue transmission. We aimed to quantify the effect of weather variability on dengue vector indices in ten Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions in Kalutara, Sri Lanka.

METHODS

Monthly weather variables (rainfall, temperature, and Oceanic Niño Index [ONI]) and Aedes larval indices in each division in Kalutara were obtained from 2010 to 2018. Using a distributed lag non-linear model and a two-stage hierarchical analysis, we estimated and compared division-level and overall relationships between weather and premise index, Breteau index, and container index.

FINDINGS

From Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2018, three El Niño events (2010, 2015-16, and 2018) occurred. Increasing monthly cumulative rainfall higher than 200 mm at a lag of 0 months, mean temperatures higher than 31·5°C at a lag of 1-2 months, and El Niño conditions (ie, ONI >0·5) at a lag of 6 months were associated with an increased relative risk of premise index and Breteau index. Container index was found to be less sensitive to temperature and ONI, and rainfall. The associations of rainfall and temperature were rather homogeneous across divisions.

INTERPRETATION

Both temperature and ONI have the potential to serve as predictors of vector activity at a lead time of 1-6 months, while the amount of rainfall could indicate the magnitude of vector prevalence in the same month. This information, along with knowledge of the distribution of breeding sites, is useful for spatial risk prediction and implementation of effective Aedes control interventions.

FUNDING

None.

Climate variability and Aedes vector indices in the southern Philippines: An empirical analysis

Background

Vector surveillance is an essential public health tool to aid in the prediction and prevention of mosquito borne diseases. This study compared spatial and temporal trends of vector surveillance indices for Aedes vectors in the southern Philippines, and assessed potential links between vector indices and climate factors.

Methods

We analysed routinely collected larval and pupal surveillance data from residential areas of 14 cities and 51 municipalities during 2013–2018 (House, Container, Breteau and Pupal Indices), and used linear regression to explore potential relationships between vector indices and climate variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation).

Results

We found substantial spatial and temporal variation in monthly Aedes vector indices between cities during the study period, and no seasonal trend apparent. The House (HI), Container (CI) and Breteau (BI) Indices remained at comparable levels across most surveys (mean HI = 15, mean CI = 16, mean BI = 24), while the Pupal Productivity Index (PPI) was relatively lower in most months (usually below 5) except for two main peak periods (mean = 49 overall). A small proportion of locations recorded high values across all entomological indices in multiple surveys. Each of the vector indices were significantly correlated with one or more climate variables when matched to data from the same month or the previous 1 or 2 months, although the effect sizes were small. Significant associations were identified between minimum temperature and HI, CI and BI in the same month (R2 = 0.038, p = 0.007; R2 = 0.029, p = 0.018; and R2 = 0.034, p = 0.011, respectively), maximum temperature and PPI with a 2-month lag (R2 = 0.031, p = 0.032), and precipitation and HI in the same month (R2 = 0.023, p = 0.04).

Conclusions

Our findings indicated that larval and pupal surveillance indices were highly variable, were regularly above the threshold for triggering vector control responses, and that vector indices based on household surveys were weakly yet significantly correlated with city-level climate variables. We suggest that more detailed spatial and temporal analyses of entomological, climate, socio-environmental and Aedes-borne disease incidence data are necessary to ascertain the most effective use of entomological indices in guiding vector control responses, and reduction of human disease risk.

The unreachable doorbells of South Texas: community engagement in colonias on the US-Mexico border for mosquito control

Mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit continue to place millions of people at risk of infection around the world. Novel methods of vector control are being developed to provide public health officials with the necessary tools to prevent disease transmission and reduce local mosquito populations. However, these methods will require public acceptance for a sustainable approach and evaluations at local settings. We present our efforts in community engagement carried out in colonias of the Lower Rio Grande Valley in south Texas for mosquito surveillance, control, and ecological projects. Along the US-Mexico border the term colonia refers to impoverished communities that are usually inhabited by families of Hispanic heritage. The different engagements were carried out from September 2016 to February 2019; during this time, we had three distinct phases for community engagement. In Phase 1 we show the initial approach to the colonias in which we assessed security and willingness to participate; in Phase 2 we carried out the first recruitment procedure involving community meetings and house-to-house recruitment; and in Phase 3 we conducted a modified recruitment procedure based on community members' input. Our findings show that incorporating community members in the development of communication materials and following their suggestions for engagement allowed us to generate culturally sensitive recruitment materials and to better understand the social relationships and power dynamics within these communities. We were able to effectively reach a larger portion of the community and decrease the dropout rate of participants. Progress gained with building trust in the communities allowed us to convey participant risks and benefits of collaborating with our research projects. Community engagement should be viewed as a key component of any local vector control program as well as for any scientific research project related to vector control. Even in the face of budgetary constraints, small efforts in community engagement go a long way.

Dengue Risk Forecast with Mosquito Vector: A Multicomponent Fusion Approach Based on Spatiotemporal Analysis

Dengue as an acute infectious disease threatens global public health and has sparked broad research interest. However, existing studies generally ignore the spatial dependencies involved in dengue forecast, and consideration of temporal periodicity is absent. In this work, we propose a spatiotemporal component fusion model (STCFM) to solve the dengue risk forecast issue. Considering that mosquitoes are an important vector of dengue transmission, we introduce feature factors involving mosquito abundance and spatiotemporal lags to model temporal trends and spatial distributions separately on the basis of statistical properties. Specifically, we conduct multiscale modeling of temporal dependencies to enhance the forecast capability of relevant periods by capturing the historical variation patterns of the data across different segments in the temporal dimension. In the spatial dimension, we quantify the multivariate spatial correlation analysis as additional features to strengthen the spatial feature representation and adopt the ConvLSTM model to learn spatial dependencies adequately. The final forecast results are obtained by stacking strategy fusion in ensemble learning. We conduct experiments on real dengue datasets. The results indicate that STCFM improves prediction accuracy through effective spatiotemporal feature representations and outperforms candidate models with a reasonable component construction strategy.

Effects of COVID-19 Non-Pharmacological Interventions on Dengue Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) implemented during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have demonstrated significant positive effects on other communicable diseases. Nevertheless, the response for dengue fever has been mixed. To illustrate the real implications of NPIs on dengue transmission and to determine the effective measures for preventing and controlling dengue, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the available global data to summarize the effects comprehensively. We searched Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science in line with PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines from December 31, 2019, to March 30, 2022, for studies of NPI efficacy on dengue infection. We obtained the annual reported dengue cases from highly dengue-endemic countries in 2015–2021 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to determine the actual change in dengue cases in 2020 and 2021, respectively. A random-effects estimate of the pooled odds was generated with the Mantel-Haenszel method. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed using the inconsistency index (I²) and subgroup analysis according to country (dengue-endemic or non-endemic) was conducted. This review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021291487). A total of 17 articles covering 32 countries or regions were included in the review. Meta-analysis estimated a pooled relative risk of 0.39 (95% CI: 0.28–0.55), and subgroup revealed 0.06 (95% CI: 0.02-0.25) and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.44-0.68) in dengue non-endemic areas and dengue-endemic countries, respectively, in 2020. The majority of highly dengue-endemic countries in Asia and Americas reported 0–100% reductions in dengue cases in 2020 compared to previous years, while some countries (4/20) reported a dramatic increase, resulting in an overall increase of 11%. In contrast, there was an obvious reduction in dengue cases in 2021 in almost all countries (18/20) studied, with an overall 40% reduction rate. The overall effectiveness of NPIs on dengue varied with region and time due to multiple factors, but most countries reported significant reductions. Travel-related interventions demonstrated great effectiveness for reducing imported cases of dengue fever. Internal movement restrictions of constantly varying intensity and range are more likely to mitigate the entire level of dengue transmission by reducing the spread of dengue fever between regions within a country, which is useful for developing a more comprehensive and sustainable strategy for preventing and controlling dengue fever in the future.

The Effectiveness of Net to Reduce the Entomological Indices in Dengue-Endemic Areas in Balikpapan, Indonesia

BACKGROUND: Drums and cisterns are ubiquitous water storages in Indonesian households, seldom being drained and left open to create access for the rainwater, providing a favorable breeding site for dengue vector. The bigger the container, the more it produces immature mosquitoes that are soon to be mature, increasing the entomological indices and raising the potency of cases in the area. Previous studies revealed that the net covering the reservoir was able to effectively protect the water from mosquito oviposition; therefore, a modification of the net was made. AIM: The aim of this study is to discover whether the net as a cover for water containers is effective in reducing the entomological indices in dengue-endemic areas. METHODS: The quasi-experimental study with pretest and posttest control group design, involved 3 intervention and 3 control clusters, 150 houses which have 672 water-holding containers with 116 large containers were intervened with non-insecticide tulle nets for 3 months. The larval presence data were performed by larval survey. RESULTS: It revealed that net reduced the container index (CI) in intervened large containers 18%–84% as well as the environment entomological indices in general in study areas: CI decreased 75%–79%, house index decreased 65%–70%, and Breteau index decreased 75.5%–78.7%, while Free Larva Index rose 73.7%–88%. CONCLUSIONS: The nets had lowered the CI in the intervened large container and affected the entomological indices of the surrounding environment, by blocking the mosquitos-water contact and preventing the young mosquitos that had developed in the containers from flying out.

Temporal Correlation Between Urban Microclimate, Vector Mosquito Abundance, and Dengue Cases

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a major mosquito-borne viral disease. Studies have reported a strong correlation between weather, the abundance of Aedes aegypti, the vector of DHF virus, and dengue incidence. However, this conclusion has been based on the general climate pattern of wide regions. In general, however, the human population, level of infrastructure, and land-use change in rural and urban areas often produce localized climate patterns that may influence the interaction between climate, vector abundance, and dengue incidence. Thoroughly understanding this correlation will allow the development of a customized and precise local early warning system. To achieve this purpose, we conducted a cohort study, during January-December 2017, in 16 districts in Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. In the selected areas, local weather stations and modified light mosquito traps were set up to obtain data regarding daily weather and the abundance of adult female Ae. aegypti. A generalized linear model was applied to analyze the effect of local weather and female adult Ae. aegypti on the number of dengue cases. The result showed a significant non-linear correlation among mosquito abundance, maximum temperature, and dengue cases. Using our model, the data showed that the addition of a single adult Ae. aegypti mosquito increased the risk of dengue infection by 1.8%, while increasing the maximum temperature by one degree decreased the risk by 17%. This finding suggests specific actionable insights needed to supplement existing mosquito eradication programs.

Individual, household and community drivers of dengue virus infection risk in Kamphaeng Phet province, Thailand

Dengue virus (DENV) often circulates endemically. In such settings with high levels of transmission, it remains unclear whether there are risk factors that alter individual infection risk. We tested blood taken from individuals living in multigenerational households in Kamphaeng Phet province, Thailand for DENV antibodies (N = 2364, mean age 31y). Seropositivity ranged from 45.4% among those 1-5y to 99.5% for those >30y. Using spatially explicit catalytic models, we estimated 11.8% of the susceptible population gets infected annually. We found 37.5% of the variance in seropositivity was explained by unmeasured household-level effects with only 4.2% explained by spatial differences between households. The serostatus of individuals from the same household remained significantly correlated even when separated by up to 15 years in age. These findings show that despite highly endemic transmission, persistent differences in infection risk exist across households, the reasons for which remain unclear.

Association between densities of adult and immature stages of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in space and time: implications for vector surveillance

BACKGROUND

Mosquito control is currently the main tool available to contain the spread of several arboviruses in Brazil. We have evaluated the association between entomological surveys of female adult Aedes aegypti and the Breteau index (BI) in space and time in a hyperendemic area, and compared the human resources costs required to measure each of these indicators.

METHODS

Entomological surveys were conducted between 2016 and 2019 in Vila Toninho, a neighborhood in the city of São José do Rio Preto, Brazil. Monthly records of collected mosquito specimens were made and then grouped by season.

RESULTS

Our findings showed that adult and immature mosquitoes are more related in time than in space, possibly due to differences in their habitats or in climate variables. Bayesian temporal modeling revealed that an increase in 1 standard deviation in the BI was associated with a 27% increase in the number of adult female mosquitoes when adjusted for climatic conditions. The cost of entomological surveys of adult mosquitoes was found to be 83% lower than the cost of determining the BI when covering the same geographic area.

CONCLUSIONS

For fine-scale assessments, a simple measure of adult Ae. aegypti abundance may be more realistic than aquatic indicators, but the adult indices are not necessarily the only reliable measure. Surveying adult female mosquitoes has significant potential for optimizing vector control strategies because, unlike the BI, this tool provides an effective indicator for micro-areas within an urban region. It should be noted that the results of the present study may be due to specific features of of the study area, and future studies should analyze whether the patterns found in the study neighborhood are also found in other regions.

Assessing Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) for Evaluation of Aedes aegypti Population Age Structure

Given that older Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquitoes typically pose the greatest risk of pathogen transmission, the capacity to age grade wild Ae. aegypti mosquito populations would be a valuable tool in monitoring the potential risk of arboviral transmission. Here, we compared the effectiveness of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to age grade field-collected Ae. aegypti with two alternative techniques—parity analysis and transcript abundance of the age-associated gene SCP1. Using lab-reared mosquitoes of known ages from three distinct populations maintained as adults under laboratory or semi-field conditions, we developed and validated four NIRS models for predicting the age of field-collected Ae. aegypti. To assess the accuracy of these models, female Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were collected from Maricopa County, AZ, during the 2017 and 2018 monsoon season, and a subset were age graded using the three different age-grading techniques. For both years, each of the four NIRS models consistently graded parous mosquitoes as significantly older than nulliparous mosquitoes. Furthermore, a significant positive linear association occurred between SCP1 and NIRS age predictions in seven of the eight year/model combinations, although considerable variation in the predicted age of individual mosquitoes was observed. Our results suggest that although the NIRS models were not adequate in determining the age of individual field-collected mosquitoes, they have the potential to quickly and cost effectively track changes in the age structure of Ae. aegypti populations across locations and over time.

Citywide Integrated Aedes aegypti Mosquito Surveillance as Early Warning System for Arbovirus Transmission, Brazil

Infestation indices based on adult trapping predicted dengue outbreaks better than larval indices did.

Arbovirus epidemiology lacks efficient and timely surveillance systems with accurate outbreak alert signals. We devised a citywide integrated surveillance system combining entomologic, epidemiologic, and entomo-virologic data gathered during 2017–2020 in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil. We installed 3,476 adult mosquito traps across the city and inspected traps every 2 months. We compared 5 entomologic indices: traditional house and Breteau indices for larval surveys and trap positivity, adult density, and mosquitoes per inhabitant indices for adult trapping. We screened for dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses in live adult Aedes aegypti mosquitoes collected from traps. Indices based on adult mosquito sampling had higher outbreak predictive values than larval indices, and we were able to build choropleth maps of infestation levels <36 h after each round of trap inspection. Locating naturally infected vectors provides a timely support tool for local public health managers to prioritize areas for intervention response to prevent virus outbreaks.

Proof of concept for eliminating Aedes aegypti production by means of integrated control including turtles, copepods, tilapia, larvicides, and community participation in Monte Verde, Honduras

Monte Verde, a peri‑urban squatter community near San Pedro Sula, virtually eliminated Aedes aegypti production in all known larval habitats: wells; water storage containers including pilas (open concrete water tanks used for laundry), 200-liter drums, 1000-liter plastic "cisterns," buckets; and objects collecting rainwater. The project began in 2016 when Monte Verde was overrun with dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. During more than a year of experimentation, Monte Verde residents crafted an effective, sustainable, and environmentally friendly toolkit that was inexpensive but required full community participation. Biological control with copepods, turtles, and tilapia was at the core of the toolkit, along with a mix of other methods such as getting rid of unnecessary containers, scrubbing them to remove Ae. aegypti eggs, and covering them to exclude mosquitoes or rainwater. Environmentally friendly larvicides also had a limited but crucial role. Key design features: (1) toolkit components known to be nearly 100% effective at preventing Ae. aegypti production when fitted to appropriate larval habitats; (2) using Ae. aegypti larval habitats as a resource by transforming them into "egg sinks" to drive Ae. aegypti population decline; (3) dedicated community volunteers who worked with their neighbors, targeting 100% coverage of all known Ae. aegypti larval habitats with an appropriate control method; (4) monthly monitoring in which the volunteers visited every house to assess progress and improve coverage as an ongoing learning experience for both volunteers and residents. Taking pupae as an indicator of Ae. aegypti production, from September 2018 to the end of the record in December 2021 (except for a brief lapse during COVID lockdown in 2020), the monthly count of pupae fluctuated between zero and 0.6% of the 22,984 pupae counted in the baseline survey at the beginning of the project. Adult Ae. aegypti declined to low numbers but did not disappear completely. There were no recognizable cases of dengue, Zika, or chikungunya after June 2018, though the study design based on a single site did not provide a basis for rigorous confirmation that Monte Verde's Ae. aegypti control program was responsible. Nonetheless, Monte Verde's success at eliminating Ae. aegypti production can serve as a model for extending this approach to other communities. Key ingredients for success were outside stimulation and facilitation to foster shared community awareness and commitment regarding the problem and its solution, enduring commitment of local leadership, compatibility of the toolkit with the local community, overcoming social obstacles, rapid results with "success breeding success," and building resilience.

Evaluation of Methods to Collect Diurnal Culicidae (Diptera) at Canopy and Ground Strata, in the Atlantic Forest Biome

Hand-held insect nets are the standard method for capturing vector mosquitoes of sylvatic arboviruses; however, occupational risks and biases due to individual skill and attractiveness are important limitations. The use of chemical attractants and automatic traps could be an alternative to resolve these limitations. This study compares the yields achieved using nets with those employing electrical traps with CO2 and BG-Lure®, near the ground and in the canopy strata (6.0 and 8.0 m high). The study was conducted at the Cantareira State Park, which is in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest biome. In the 18 collections performed, 3570 specimens of 52 taxa were obtained. The most frequent species captured near the ground were Wyeomyia confusa and Limatus durhamii, whereas Sabethes albiprivus, Sabethes purpureus, and Haemagogus leucocelaenus were the most frequent in the canopy. The nets resulted in greater species richness and abundance, followed by the trap employing CO2. The combination of CO2 traps with BG-Lure® did not improve performance. The use of BG-Lure® alone resulted in low abundance and a low number of species. Our results demonstrate that the use of traps with CO2 can be complementary to collections with nets; however, for species of epidemiological interest such as those of the genera Haemagogus and Sabethes, especially in the canopy, the net remains the method of choice.

Novel Epidemic Metrics to Communicate Outbreak Risk at the Municipality Level: Dengue and Zika in the Dominican Republic

Arboviruses remain a significant cause of morbidity, mortality and economic cost across the global human population. Epidemics of arboviral disease, such as Zika and dengue, also cause significant disruption to health services at local and national levels. This study examined 2014-2016 Zika and dengue epidemic data at the sub-national level to characterise transmission across the Dominican Republic. For each municipality, spatio-temporal mapping was used to characterise disease burden, while data were age and sex standardised to quantify burden distributions among the population. In separate analyses, time-ordered data were combined with the underlying disease migration interval distribution to produce a network of likely transmission chain events, displayed using transmission chain likelihood matrices. Finally, municipal-specific reproduction numbers (R_m) were established using a Wallinga-Teunis matrix. Dengue and Zika epidemics peaked during weeks 39-52 of 2015 and weeks 14-27 of 2016, respectively. At the provincial level, dengue attack rates were high in Hermanas Mirabal and San José de Ocoa (58.1 and 49.2 cases per 10,000 population, respectively), compared with the Zika burden, which was highest in Independencia and San José de Ocoa (21.2 and 13.4 cases per 10,000 population, respectively). Across municipalities, high disease burden was observed in Cotuí (622 dengue cases per 10,000 population) and Jimani (32 Zika cases per 10,000 population). Municipal infector-infectee transmission likelihood matrices identified seven 0% likelihood transmission events throughout the dengue epidemic and two 0% likelihood transmission events during the Zika epidemic. Municipality reproduction numbers (R_m) were consistently higher, and persisted for a greater duration, during the Zika epidemic (R_m = 1.0) than during the dengue epidemic (R_m < 1.0). This research highlights the importance of disease surveillance in land border municipalities as an early warning for infectious disease transmission. It also demonstrates that a high number of importation events are required to sustain transmission in endemic settings, and vice versa for newly emerged diseases. The inception of a novel epidemiological metric, R_m, reports transmission risk using standardised spatial units, and can be used to identify high transmission risk municipalities to better focus public health interventions for dengue, Zika and other infectious diseases.

Dengue surveillance using gravid oviposition sticky (GOS) trap and dengue non-structural 1 (NS1) antigen test in Malaysia: randomized controlled trial

Dengue remains a major public threat and existing dengue control/surveillance programs lack sensitivity and proactivity. More efficient methods are needed. A cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted for 18 months to determine the efficacy of using a combination of gravid oviposition sticky (GOS) traps and dengue non-structural 1 (NS1) antigen for early surveillance of dengue among Aedes mosquito. Eight residential apartments were randomly assigned into intervention and control groups. GOS traps were placed at the intervention apartments weekly to trap Aedes mosquitoes and these tested for dengue NS1 antigen. When dengue-positive pool was detected, the community were notified and advised to execute protective measures. Fewer dengue cases were recorded in the intervention group than the control. Detection of NS1-positive mosquitoes was significantly associated with GOS Aedes index (r_s = 0.68, P < 0.01) and occurrence of dengue cases (r_s = 0.31, P < 0.01). Participants' knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) toward dengue control indicated significant improvement for knowledge (P < 0.01), practice (P < 0.01) and total scores (P < 0.01). Most respondents thought this surveillance method is good (81.2%) and supported its use nationwide. Thus, GOS trap and dengue NS1 antigen test can supplement the current dengue surveillance/control, in alignment with the advocated integrated vector management for reducing Aedes-borne diseases.

Review of the ecology and behaviour of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Western Africa and implications for vector control

Western Africa is vulnerable to arboviral disease transmission, having recently experienced major outbreaks of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika. However, there have been relatively few studies on the natural history of the two major human arbovirus vectors in this region, Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, potentially limiting the implementation of effective vector control. We systematically searched for and reviewed relevant studies on the behaviour and ecology of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Western Africa, published over the last 40 years. We identified 73 relevant studies, over half of which were conducted in Nigeria, Senegal, or Côte d'Ivoire. Most studies investigated the ecology of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, exploring the impact of seasonality and land cover on mosquito populations and identifying aquatic habitats. This review highlights the adaptation of Ae. albopictus to urban environments and its invasive potential, and the year-round maintenance of Ae. aegypti populations in water storage containers. However, important gaps were identified in the literature on the behaviour of both species, particularly Ae. albopictus. In Western Africa, Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus appear to be mainly anthropophilic and to bite predominantly during the day, but further research is needed to confirm this to inform planning of effective vector control strategies. We discuss the public health implications of these findings and comment on the suitability of existing and novel options for control in Western Africa.

Entomological outcomes of cluster-randomised, community-driven dengue vector-suppression interventions in Kampong Cham province, Cambodia

Cambodia has one of the highest dengue infection rates in Southeast Asia. Here we report quantitative entomological results of a large-scale cluster-randomised trial assessing the impact on vector populations of a package of vector control interventions including larvivorous guppy fish in household water containers, mosquito trapping with gravid-ovitraps, solid waste management, breeding-container coverage through community education and engagement for behavioural change, particularly through the participation of school children. These activities resulted in major reductions in Container Index, House Index, Breteau Index, Pupal Index and Adult Index (all p-values 0.002 or lower) in the Intervention Arm compared with the Control Arm in a series of household surveys conducted over a follow-up period of more than one year, although the project was not able to measure the longer-term sustainability of the interventions. Despite comparative reductions in Adult Index between the study arms, the Adult Index was higher in the Intervention Arm in the final household survey than in the first household survey. This package of biophysical and community engagement interventions was highly effective in reducing entomological indices for dengue compared with the control group, but caution is required in extrapolating the reduction in household Adult Index to a reduction in the overall population of adult Aedes mosquitoes, and in interpreting the relationship between a reduction in entomological indices and a reduction in the number of dengue cases. The package of interventions should be trialled in other locations.

Validation of the Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: Evidence from the national vector control program in Mexico

Background

During 2017, twenty health districts (locations) implemented a dengue outbreak Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) in Mexico, which processes epidemiological, meteorological and entomological alarm indicators to predict dengue outbreaks and triggers early response activities.

Out of the 20 priority districts where more than one fifth of all national disease transmission in Mexico occur, eleven districts were purposely selected and analyzed. Nine districts presented outbreak alarms by EWARS but without subsequent outbreaks (“non-outbreak districts”) and two presented alarms with subsequent dengue outbreaks (“outbreak districts”). This evaluation study assesses and compares the impact of alarm-informed response activities and the consequences of failing a timely and adequate response across the outbreak groups.

Methods

Five indicators of dengue outbreak response (larval control, entomological studies with water container interventions, focal spraying and indoor residual spraying) were quantitatively analyzed across two groups (”outbreak districts” and “non-outbreak districts”). However, for quality control purposes, only qualitative concluding remarks were derived from the fifth response indicator (fogging).

Results

The average coverage of vector control responses was significantly higher in non-outbreak districts and across all four indicators. In the “outbreak districts” the response activities started late and were of much lower intensity compared to “non-outbreak districts”. Vector control teams at districts-level demonstrated diverse levels of compliance with local guidelines for ‘initial’, ‘early’ and ‘late’ responses to outbreak alarms, which could potentially explain the different outcomes observed following the outbreak alarms.

Conclusion

Failing timely and adequate response of alarm signals generated by EWARS showed to negatively impact the disease outbreak control process. On the other hand, districts with adequate and timely response guided by alarm signals demonstrated successful records of outbreak prevention. This study presents important operational scenarios when failing or successding EWARS but warrants investigating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of EWARS using a more robust designs.

While the Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) for dengue and other vector-borne diseases has significantly advanced in methodologies and applications in more recent time, evidence from the field on the implications of EWARS in the context of vector control and response is still rare. Assessing the effectiveness (and cost) of EWARS in reducing or mitigating disease outbreaks entails complex study designs, including randomized controlled trials. This study employs a pragmatic validation design; comparing groups of outbreak and non-outbreak districts from the Mexican national vector control and response program for dengue, all districts with implemented EWARS and generated alerts. The study authors have illustrated and discussed important operational implications when failing or succeeding timely and adequate response to EWARS alerts, revealing that responding to EWARS alerts in time and space, during or beyond the routine vector control and response process can significantly reduce unnecessary outbreaks and hospitalizations.

Development of inapparent dengue associated with increased antibody levels to Aedes aegypti salivary proteins: a longitudinal dengue cohort in Cambodia

BACKGROUND

We established the first prospective cohort to understand how infection with dengue virus is influenced by vector-specific determinants like humoral immunity to Aedes aegypti salivary proteins.

METHODS

Children aged two to nine years old enrolled in the PAGODAS (Pediatric Assessment Group of Dengue and Aedes Saliva) cohort with informed consent by their guardians. Children were followed semi-annually for antibodies to dengue and to proteins in Ae. aegypti salivary gland homogenate using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and dengue-specific neutralization titers. Children presented with fever at any time for dengue testing.

RESULTS

From July 13 to August 30, 2018, we enrolled 771 children. At baseline, 22% (173/770) had evidence of neutralizing antibodies to one or more dengue serotypes. By April 2020, 51 children had symptomatic dengue while 148 dengue-naïve children had inapparent dengue defined by neutralization assays. In a multivariate model, individuals with higher antibodies to Ae. aegypti salivary proteins were 1.5x more likely to have dengue infection (HR 1.47 95% CI 1.05-2.06; p=0.02), particularly individuals with inapparent dengue (HR 1.64 95% CI 1.12-2.41; p=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

High levels of seropositivity to Ae. aegypti salivary proteins are associated with future development of dengue infection, primarily inapparent, in dengue-naïve Cambodian children.

Entomological Risk Assessment for Dengue Virus Transmission during 2016-2020 in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Individual houses with high risks of dengue virus (DENV) transmission might be a source of virus transmission within the neighborhood. We conducted an entomological risk assessment for DENV transmission at the household level, comprising family cohort members residing in the same location, to assess the risk for dengue virus transmitted by mosquito vectors. The studies were conducted in Kamphaeng Phet Province, Thailand, during 2016-2020. Entomological investigations were performed in 35 cohort families on day 1 and day 14 after receiving dengue case reports. DENV was found in 22 Aedes samples (4.9%) out of 451 tested samples. A significantly higher DENV infection rate was detected in vectors collected on day 1 (6.64%) compared to those collected on day 14 (1.82%). Annual vector surveillance was carried out in 732 houses, with 1002 traps catching 3653 Aedes females. The majority of the 13,228 water containers examined were made from plastic and clay, with used tires serving as a primary container, with 59.55% larval abundance. Larval indices, as indicators of dengue epidemics and to evaluate disease and vector control approaches, were calculated. As a result, high values of larval indices indicated the considerably high risk of dengue transmission in these communities.

Impact of Climate Variability and Incidence on Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Palembang City, South Sumatra, Indonesia

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a dengue virus infection transmitted by Aedes spp. Climate has a profound influence on mosquito breeding. Palembang has the highest rate of DHF in South Sumatra. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the components of climate factors and the incidence of DHF in Palembang. This study was cross-sectional, with an observational analytic approach. The Palembang City Health Office compiled data on DHF incidence rates from 2016 to 2020. Climatic factor data (rainfall, number of rainy days, temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun irradiance) were collected from the Climatology Station Class I Palembang - BMKG Station and Task Force that same year. The Spearman test was used to conduct the correlation test. Between 2016 and 2020, there were 3,398 DHF patients. From January to May, DHF increased. There was a significant correlation between rainfall (r = 0.320; p = 0.005), number of rainy days (r = 0.295; p = 0.020), temperature (r = 0.371; p = 0.040), and humidity (r = 0.221; p = 0.024), wind speed (r= 0.76; p = 0.492), and sunlight (r = 0.008; p = 0.865). Rainfall, the number of rainy days, and temperature were three climatic factors determining the increase in dengue incidence in Palembang.

Field Effectiveness of Drones to Identify Potential Aedes aegypti Breeding Sites in Household Environments from Tapachula, a Dengue-Endemic City in Southern Mexico

Aedes aegypti control programs require more sensitive tools in order to survey domestic and peridomestic larval habitats for dengue and other arbovirus prevention areas. As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, field technicians have faced a new occupational hazard during their work activities in dengue surveillance and control. Safer strategies to monitor larval populations, in addition to minimum householder contact, are undoubtedly urgently needed. Drones can be part of the solution in urban and rural areas that are dengue-endemic. Throughout this study, the proportion of larvae breeding sites found in the roofs and backyards of houses were assessed using drone images. Concurrently, the traditional ground field technician's surveillance was utilized to sample the same house groups. The results were analyzed in order to compare the effectiveness of both field surveillance approaches. Aerial images of 216 houses from El Vergel village in Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico, at a height of 30 m, were obtained using a drone. Each household was sampled indoors and outdoors by vector control personnel targeting all the containers that potentially served as Aedes aegypti breeding sites. The main results were that the drone could find 1 container per 2.8 found by ground surveillance; however, containers that were inaccessible by technicians in roofs and backyards, such as plastic buckets and tubs, disposable plastic containers and flowerpots were more often detected by drones than traditional ground surveillance. This new technological approach would undoubtedly improve the surveillance of Aedes aegypti in household environments, and better vector control activities would therefore be achieved in dengue-endemic countries.

Climate Variability, Dengue Vector Abundance and Dengue Fever Cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh: A Time-Series Study

Numerous studies on climate change and variability have revealed that these phenomena have noticeable influence on the epidemiology of dengue fever, and such relationships are complex due to the role of the vector—the Aedes mosquitoes. By undertaking a step-by-step approach, the present study examined the effects of climatic factors on vector abundance and subsequent effects on dengue cases of Dhaka city, Bangladesh. Here, we first analyzed the time-series of Stegomyia indices for Aedes mosquitoes in relation to temperature, rainfall and relative humidity for 2002–2013, and then in relation to reported dengue cases in Dhaka. These data were analyzed at three sequential stages using the generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM). Results revealed strong evidence that an increase in Aedes abundance is associated with the rise in temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall during the monsoon months, that turns into subsequent increases in dengue incidence. Further we found that (i) the mean rainfall and the lag mean rainfall were significantly related to Container Index, and (ii) the Breteau Index was significantly related to the mean relative humidity and mean rainfall. The relationships of dengue cases with Stegomyia indices and with the mean relative humidity, and the lag mean rainfall were highly significant. In examining longitudinal (2001–2013) data, we found significant evidence of time lag between mean rainfall and dengue cases.

Human-Mosquito Contact: A Missing Link in Our Understanding of Mosquito-Borne Disease Transmission Dynamics

Despite the critical role that contact between hosts and vectors, through vector bites, plays in driving vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission, transmission risk is primarily studied through the lens of vector density and overlooks host-vector contact dynamics. This review article synthesizes current knowledge of host-vector contact with an emphasis on mosquito bites. It provides a framework including biological and mathematical definitions of host-mosquito contact rate, blood-feeding rate, and per capita biting rates. We describe how contact rates vary and how this variation is influenced by mosquito and vertebrate factors. Our framework challenges a classic assumption that mosquitoes bite at a fixed rate determined by the duration of their gonotrophic cycle. We explore alternative ecological assumptions based on the functional response, blood index, forage ratio, and ideal free distribution within a mechanistic host-vector contact model. We highlight that host-vector contact is a critical parameter that integrates many factors driving disease transmission. A renewed focus on contact dynamics between hosts and vectors will contribute new insights into the mechanisms behind VBD spread and emergence that are sorely lacking. Given the framework for including contact rates as an explicit component of mathematical models of VBD, as well as different methods to study contact rates empirically to move the field forward, researchers should explicitly test contact rate models with empirical studies. Such integrative studies promise to enhance understanding of extrinsic and intrinsic factors affecting host-vector contact rates and thus are critical to understand both the mechanisms driving VBD emergence and guiding their prevention and control.

Developing Risk Assessment Criteria and Predicting High- and Low-Dengue Risk Villages for Strengthening Dengue Prevention Activities: Community Participatory Action Research, Thailand

Background:

Risk assessment criteria for predicting dengue outbreak must be appropriated at village levels. We aimed to develop risk dengue village prediction criteria, predict village dengue risk, and strengthen dengue prevention based on community participation.

Methods:

This participatory research conducted in Southern Thailand included the following 5 phases: (i) preparing communities in 3 districts; (ii) developing risk dengue village prediction criteria; (iii) applying computer program; (iv) predicting village dengue risk with 75 public health providers in 39 PCUs; and (v) utilizing findings to strengthen dengue prevention activities in 220 villages. Data collecting for prediction used secondary data from primary care units in the past 5 year and current year. Descriptive statistics used calculating criteria and comparing with standard level to adjust score of risk.

Results:

Risk dengue village assessment criteria had 2 aspects: dengue severity (3 factors) and dengue outbreak opportunity (3 factors). Total scores were 33 points and cut-off of 17 points for high and low dengue risks villages. All criteria were applied using computer program (http://surat.denguelim.com). Risk prediction involved stakeholder participation in 220 villages, and used for strengthening dengue prevention activities. The concept of integrated vector management included larval indices surveillance system, garbage management, larval indices level lower than the standard, community capacity activities for dengue prevention, and school-based dengue prevention. The risk prediction criteria and process mobilized villages for dengue prevention activities to decrease morbidity rate.

Conclusion:

Dengue risk assessment criteria were appropriated within the village, with its smallest unit, the household, included. The data can be utilized at village levels for evaluating dengue outbreak risks.