Risk factors for the presence of chikungunya and dengue vectors (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus), their altitudinal distribution and climatic determinants of their abundance in central Nepal

Molecular and Entomological Characterization of 2023 Dengue Outbreak in Dhading District, Central Nepal

In 2023, Nepal faced its second largest dengue outbreak ever, following a record-breaking number of dengue cases in 2022, characterized by the expansion of infections into areas of higher altitudes. However, the characteristics of the 2023 circulating dengue virus (DENV) and the vector density remain poorly understood. Therefore, we performed DENV serotyping, clinical and laboratory assessment, and entomological analysis of the 2023 outbreak in central Nepal. A total of 396 fever cases in Dhading hospital suspected of being DENV positive were enrolled, and blood samples were collected and tested by different techniques including PCR. Of these, 278 (70.2%) had confirmed DENV infection. Multiple serotypes (DENV-1, -2, and -3) were detected. DENV-2 (97.5%) re-emerged after six years in Dhading while DENV-3 was identified for the first time. Dengue inpatients had significantly higher frequency of anorexia, myalgia, rash, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, and thrombocytopenia (p < 0.05). In this area, Aedes mosquitoes largely predominated (90.7%) with the majority being A. aegypti (60.7%). We also found high levels of Aedes index (20.0%) and container index (16.7%). We confirmed multiple DENV serotype circulation with serotype re-emergence and new serotype introduction, and high vector density in 2023. These findings call for the urgent initiation and scaling up of DENV molecular surveillance in human and mosquito populations for dengue control and prevention in Nepal.

The potential habitat and environmental fitness change of Aedes albopictus in Western Eurasia for 2081-2100

BACKGROUND OBJECTIVES

The range of Aedes albopictus, the most important vector mosquito in Western Eurasia is growing due to climate change. However, it is not known how it will influence the habitats occupied by the species and its environmental fitness within its future range.

METHODS

To study this question, the habitat characteristic of the mosquito was investigated for 2081-2100.

RESULTS

The models suggest a notable future spread of the mosquito in the direction of Northern Europe and the parallel northward and westward shift of the southern and eastern potential occurrences of the mosquito. The models suggest a notable increase in generation numbers in the warmest quarter, which can reach 4-5 generations in the peri-Mediterranean region. However, both the joint survival rate of larvae and pupae and the number of survival days of adults in the warmest quarter exhibit decreasing values, as does the potential disappearance of the mosquito in the southern regions of Europe and Asia Minor, along with the growing atmospheric CO2 concentration-based scenarios.

INTERPRETATION CONCLUSION

While in 1970-2000 Aedes albopictus mainly occupied the hot and warm summer temperate regions of Europe, the species will inhabit dominantly the cool summer temperate (oceanic) and the humid continental climate territories of North and North-Eastern Europe in 2081-2100.

Detecting the impacts of humidity, rainfall, temperature, and season on chikungunya, dengue and Zika viruses in Aedes albopictus mosquitoes from selected sites in Cebu city, Philippines

BACKGROUND

Aedes albopictus is the secondary vector for dengue virus (DENV) in the Philippines, and also harbors chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses. This study aimed to determine the minimum infection rates (MIRs) of CHIKV, DENV serotypes, and ZIKV in Ae. albopictus collected from selected two-site categories by altitude (highland [H] and lowland [L] sites) in Cebu city, Philippines during the wet (WS) and dry seasons (DS) of 2021-2022, and to explore the relationships between these arboviral MIRs and the local weather.

METHODS

The viral RNA extracts in pooled and reared adult Ae. albopictus collected during the DS and WS from two-site categories were subjected to RT-PCR to amplify and detect gene loci specific for CHIKV, DENV-1 to DENV-4, and ZIKV and analyzed with the weather data.

RESULTS

The range of CHIKV MIRs was higher in the WS (13.61-107.38 infected individuals per 1,000 mosquitoes) than in the DS (13.22-44.12), but was similar between the two-site categories. Rainfall (RF) influenced the CHIKV MIR. The MIR ranges of both DENV-2 (WS: H = 0, L = 0; DS: H = 0-5.92; L = 0-2.6) and DENV-4 (WS: H = 0, L = 0-2.90; DS: H = 2.96-6.13, L = 0-15.63) differed by season but not between the two-site categories. Relative humidity (RH), RF, and temperature did not influence DENVs' MIRs. The MIR range of ZIKV was similar in both seasons (WS: 11.36-40.27; DS: 0-46.15) and two-site categories (H = 0-90.91, L = 0-55.56). RH and temperature influenced ZIKV MIR.

CONCLUSIONS

RF influenced CHIKV MIR in Ae. albopictus, whereas RH and temperature influenced that of ZIKV. Season influenced the MIRs of CHIKV and DENVs but not in ZIKV. Ae. albopictus were co-infected with CHIKV, DENVs, and ZIKV in both highland and lowland sites in Cebu city. Recommendations include all-year-round implementation of the Philippine Department of Health's  4S enhanced strategy and installation of water pipelines in rural highlands for vector and disease control. Our findings are relevant to protect public health in the tropics in this climate change.

Automated differentiation of mixed populations of free-flying female mosquitoes under semi-field conditions

Great advances in automated identification systems, or 'smart traps', that differentiate insect species have been made in recent years, yet demonstrations of field-ready devices under free-flight conditions remain rare. Here, we describe the results of mixed-species identification of female mosquitoes using an advanced optoacoustic smart trap design under free-flying conditions. Point-of-capture classification was assessed using mixed populations of congeneric (Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti) and non-congeneric (Ae. aegypti and Anopheles stephensi) container-inhabiting species of medical importance. Culex quinquefasciatus, also common in container habitats, was included as a third species in all assessments. At the aggregate level, mixed collections of non-congeneric species (Ae. aegypti, Cx. quinquefasciatus, and An. stephensi) could be classified at accuracies exceeding 90% (% error = 3.7-7.1%). Conversely, error rates increased when analysing individual replicates (mean % error = 48.6; 95% CI 8.1-68.6) representative of daily trap captures and at the aggregate level when Ae. albopictus was released in the presence of Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus (% error = 7.8-31.2%). These findings highlight the many challenges yet to be overcome but also the potential operational utility of optoacoustic surveillance in low diversity settings typical of urban environments.

Dengue Types 1 and 3 Identified in Travelers Returning from Kathmandu, Nepal, during the October 2022 Outbreak Are Related to Strains Recently Identified in India

Phylogenetic analysis of dengue serotypes 1 and 3, which were diagnosed in travelers and Nepalese infected in Kathmandu during the October 2022 outbreak, revealed that both serotypes were clustered closest to the sequences sampled in India. This suggests both serotypes may have originated in India.

Modelling the impact of climate change on dengue outbreaks and future spatiotemporal shift in Pakistan

Climate change has a significant impact on the intensity and spread of dengue outbreaks. The objective of this study is to assess the number of dengue transmission suitable days (DTSD) in Pakistan for the baseline (1976-2005) and future (2006-2035, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099) periods under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Moreover, potential spatiotemporal shift and future hotspots of DTSD due to climate change were also identified. The analysis is based on fourteen CMIP5 models that have been downscaled and bias-corrected with quantile delta mapping technique, which addresses data stationarity constraints while preserving future climate signal. The results show a higher DTSD during the monsoon season in the baseline in the study area except for Sindh (SN) and South Punjab (SP). In future periods, there is a temporal shift (extension) towards pre- and post-monsoon. During the baseline period, the top ten hotspot cities with a higher frequency of DTSD are Karachi, Hyderabad, Sialkot, Jhelum, Lahore, Islamabad, Balakot, Peshawar, Kohat, and Faisalabad. However, as a result of climate change, there is an elevation-dependent shift in DTSD to high-altitude cities, e.g. in the 2020s, Kotli, Muzaffarabad, and Drosh; in the 2050s, Garhi Dopatta, Quetta, and Zhob; and in the 2080s, Chitral and Bunji. Karachi, Islamabad, and Balakot will remain highly vulnerable to dengue outbreaks for all the future periods of the twenty-first century. Our findings also indicate that DTSD would spread across Pakistan, particularly in areas where we have never seen dengue infections previously. The good news is that the DTSD in current hotspot cities is projected to decrease in the future due to climate change. There is also a temporal shift in the region during the post- and pre-monsoon season, which provides suitable breeding conditions for dengue mosquitos due to freshwater; therefore, local authorities need to take adaption and mitigation actions.

Density of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in a low-income Brazilian urban community where dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses co-circulate

BACKGROUND

Low-income urban communities in the tropics often lack sanitary infrastructure and are overcrowded, favoring Aedes aegypti proliferation and arboviral transmission. However, as Ae. aegypti density is not spatially homogeneous, understanding the role of specific environmental characteristics in determining vector distribution is critical for planning control interventions. The objectives of this study were to identify the main habitat types for Ae. Aegypti, assess their spatial densities to identify major hotspots of arbovirus transmission over time and investigate underlying factors in a low-income urban community in Salvador, Brazil. We also tested the field-collected mosquitoes for arboviruses.

METHODS

A series of four entomological and socio-environmental surveys was conducted in a random sample of 149 households and their surroundings between September 2019 and April 2021. The surveys included searching for potential breeding sites (water-containing habitats) and for Ae. aegypti immatures in them, capturing adult mosquitoes and installing ovitraps. The spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti density indices were plotted using kernel density-ratio maps, and the spatial autocorrelation was assessed for each index. Visual differences on the spatial distribution of the Ae. aegypti hotspots were compared over time. The association of entomological findings with socio-ecological characteristics was examined. Pools of female Ae. aegypti were tested for dengue, Zika and chikungunya virus infection.

RESULTS

Overall, 316 potential breeding sites were found within the study households and 186 in the surrounding public spaces. Of these, 18 (5.7%) and 7 (3.7%) harbored a total of 595 and 283 Ae. aegypti immatures, respectively. The most productive breeding sites were water storage containers within the households and puddles and waste materials in public areas. Potential breeding sites without cover, surrounded by vegetation and containing organic matter were significantly associated with the presence of immatures, as were households that had water storage containers. None of the entomological indices, whether based on immatures, eggs or adults, detected a consistent pattern of vector clustering in the same areas over time. All the mosquito pools were negative for the tested arboviruses.

CONCLUSIONS

This low-income community displayed high diversity of Ae. aegypti habitats and a high degree of heterogeneity of vector abundance in both space and time, a scenario that likely reflects other low-income communities. Improving basic sanitation in low-income urban communities through the regular water supply, proper management of solid wastes and drainage may reduce water storage and the formation of puddles, minimizing opportunities for Ae. aegypti proliferation in such settings.

Genomic profiling of climate adaptation in Aedes aegypti along an altitudinal gradient in Nepal indicates nongradual expansion of the disease vector

Driven by globalization, urbanization and climate change, the distribution range of invasive vector species has expanded to previously colder ecoregions. To reduce health-threatening impacts on humans, insect vectors are extensively studied. Population genomics can reveal the genomic basis of adaptation and help to identify emerging trends of vector expansion. By applying whole genome analyses and genotype-environment associations to populations of the main dengue vector Aedes aegypti, sampled along an altitudinal gradient in Nepal (200-1300 m), we identify putatively adaptive traits and describe the species' genomic footprint of climate adaptation to colder ecoregions. We found two differentiated clusters with significantly different allele frequencies in genes associated to climate adaptation between the highland population (1300 m) and all other lowland populations (≤800 m). We revealed nonsynonymous mutations in 13 of the candidate genes associated to either altitude, precipitation or cold tolerance and identified an isolation-by-environment differentiation pattern. Other than the expected gradual differentiation along the altitudinal gradient, our results reveal a distinct genomic differentiation of the highland population. Local high-altitude adaptation could be one explanation of the population's phenotypic cold tolerance. Carrying alleles relevant for survival under colder climate increases the likelihood of this highland population to a worldwide expansion into other colder ecoregions.

Anti-Arbovirus Antibodies Cross-React With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is found in regions where dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses are endemic. Any serological cross-reactivity between DENV, CHIKV, and SARS-CoV-2 is significant as it could lead to misdiagnosis, increased severity, or cross-protection. This study examined the potential cross-reactivity of anti-DENV and CHIKV antibodies with SARS-CoV-2 using acute and convalescent-phase samples collected before the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. These included healthy, normal human (NHS, n = 6), CHIKV-positive (n = 14 pairs acute and convalescent), primary DENV-positive (n = 20 pairs), secondary DENV-positive (n = 20 pairs), and other febrile illnesses sera (n = 23 pairs). Samples were tested using an in-house SARS-CoV-2 and a EUROIMMUN IgA and IgG ELISAs. All NHS samples were negative, whereas 3.6% CHIKV, 21.7% primary DENV, 15.7% secondary DENV, and 10.8% febrile diseases sera resulted as anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody positive. The EUROIMMUN ELISA using spike 1 as the antigen detected more positives among the primary DENV infections than the in-house ELISA using spike 1-receptor binding domain (RBD) protein. Among ELISA-positive samples, four had detectable neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 reporter virus particles yet none had detectable neutralizing antibodies against the live Wuhan strain of SARS-CoV-2. These data demonstrated the SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic cross-reactivity, but not neutralizing antibody cross-reactivity, among dengue seropositive cases. IMPORTANCE SARS-CoV-2 continues to cause significant morbidity globally, including in areas where DENV and CHIKV are endemic. Reports using rapid diagnostic and ELISAs have demonstrated that serological cross-reactivity between DENV and SARS-CoV-2 can occur. Furthermore, it has been observed that convalescent DENV patients are at a lower risk of developing COVID-19. This phenomenon can interfere with the accuracy of serological testing and clinical management of both DENV and COVID-19 patients. In this study, the cross-reactivity of primary/secondary anti-DENV, CHIKV, and other febrile illness antibodies with SARS-CoV-2 using two ELISAs has been shown. Among ELISA-positive samples, four had detectable levels of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 reporter virus particles. However, none had detectable neutralizing antibodies against the live Wuhan strain of SARS-CoV-2. These data demonstrated SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic cross-reactivity, but not neutralizing antibody cross-reactivity, among dengue seropositive cases. The data discussed here provide information regarding diagnosis and may help guide appropriate public health interventions.

Scientists' warning of threats to mountains

Mountains are an essential component of the global life-support system. They are characterized by a rugged, heterogenous landscape with rapidly changing environmental conditions providing myriad ecological niches over relatively small spatial scales. Although montane species are well adapted to life at extremes, they are highly vulnerable to human derived ecosystem threats. Here we build on the manifesto 'World Scientists' Warning to Humanity', issued by the Alliance of World Scientists, to outline the major threats to mountain ecosystems. We highlight climate change as the greatest threat to mountain ecosystems, which are more impacted than their lowland counterparts. We further discuss the cascade of "knock-on" effects of climate change such as increased UV radiation, altered hydrological cycles, and altered pollution profiles; highlighting the biological and socio-economic consequences. Finally, we present how intensified use of mountains leads to overexploitation and abstraction of water, driving changes in carbon stock, reducing biodiversity, and impacting ecosystem functioning. These perturbations can provide opportunities for invasive species, parasites and pathogens to colonize these fragile habitats, driving further changes and losses of micro- and macro-biodiversity, as well further impacting ecosystem services. Ultimately, imbalances in the normal functioning of mountain ecosystems will lead to changes in vital biological, biochemical, and chemical processes, critically reducing ecosystem health with widespread repercussions for animal and human wellbeing. Developing tools in species/habitat conservation and future restoration is therefore essential if we are to effectively mitigate against the declining health of mountains.

Independent evaluation of Wolbachia infected male mosquito releases for control of Aedes aegypti in Harris County, Texas, using a Bayesian abundance estimator

Among disease vectors, Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) is one of the most insidious species in the world. The disease burden created by this species has dramatically increased in the past 50 years, and during this time countries have relied on pesticides for control and prevention of viruses borne by Ae. aegypti. The small number of available insecticides with different modes of action had led to increases in insecticide resistance, thus, strategies, like the "Incompatible Insect Technique" using Wolbachia's cytoplasmic incompatibility are desirable. We evaluated the effect of releases of Wolbachia infected Ae. aegypti males on populations of wild Ae. aegypti in the metropolitan area of Houston, TX. Releases were conducted by the company MosquitoMate, Inc. To estimate mosquito population reduction, we used a mosquito abundance Bayesian hierarchical estimator that accounted for inefficient trapping. MosquitoMate previously reported a reduction of 78% for an intervention conducted in Miami, FL. In this experiment we found a reduction of 93% with 95% credibility intervals of 86% and 96% after six weeks of continual releases. A similar result was reported by Verily Life Sciences, 96% [94%, 97%], in releases made in Fresno, CA.

Global Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases

Our world is undergoing rapid planetary changes driven by human activities, often mediated by economic incentives and resource management, affecting all life on Earth. Concurrently, many infectious diseases have recently emerged or spread into new populations. Mounting evidence suggests that global change-including climate change, land-use change, urbanization, and global movement of individuals, species, and goods-may be accelerating disease emergence by reshaping ecological systems in concert with socioeconomic factors. Here, we review insights, approaches, and mechanisms by which global change drives disease emergence from a disease ecology perspective. We aim to spur more interdisciplinary collaboration with economists and identification of more effective and sustainable interventions to prevent disease emergence. While almost all infectious diseases change in response to global change, the mechanisms and directions of these effects are system specific, requiring new, integrated approaches to disease control that recognize linkages between environmental and economic sustainability and human and planetary health.

Yearly variations of the genetic structure of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Philippines (2017-2019)

Dengue is the fastest emerging arboviral disease in the world, imposing a substantial health and economic burden in the tropics and subtropics. The mosquito, Aedes aegypti, is the primary vector of dengue in the Philippines. We examined the genetic structure of Ae. aegypti populations collected from the Philippine major islands (Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao), each with highland (Baguio city, Cebu city mountains and Maramag, Bukidnon, respectively) and lowland sites (Quezon city; Liloan, Cebu and Cagayan de Oro [CDO] city, respectively) during the wet (2017-2018 and 2018-2019) and dry seasons (2018 and 2019). Mosquitoes (n = 1800) were reared from field-collected eggs and immatures, and were analyzed using 12 microsatellite loci. Generalized linear model analyses revealed yearly variations between highlands and lowlands in the major islands as supported by Bayesian clustering analyses on: 1) stronger selection (inbreeding coefficient, F_IS = 0.52) in 2017-2018 than in 2018-2019 (F_IS = 0.32) as influenced by rainfall, 2) the number of non-neutral loci indicating selection, and 3) differences of effective population size although at p = 0.05. Across sites except Baguio and CDO cities: 1) F_IS varied seasonally as influenced by relative humidity (RH), and 2) the number of non-neutral loci varied as influenced by RH and rainfall indicating selection. Human-mediated activities and not isolation by distance influenced genetic differentiations of mosquito populations within (F_ST = 0.04) the major islands and across sites (global F_ST = 0.16). Gene flow (Nm) and potential first generation migrants among populations were observed between lowlands and highlands within and across major islands. Our results suggest that dengue control strategies in the epidemic wet season are to be changed into whole year-round approach, and water pipelines are to be installed in rural mountains to prevent the potential breeding sites of mosquitoes.

The knowledge, attitude and practice of community people on dengue fever in Central Nepal: a cross-sectional study

Background

Since 2006, Nepal has experienced frequent Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks. Up to now, there have been no knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) studies carried out on DF in Nepal that have included qualitative in-depth and quantitative data. Thus, we aimed to explore and compare the KAP of people residing in the lowland (< 1500 m) and highland (> 1500 m) areas of Nepal.

Methods

A cross-sectional mixed-method study was conducted in six districts of central Nepal in September–October 2018 including both quantitative (660 household surveys) and qualitative data (12 focus group discussions and 27 in-depth interviews). The KAP assessment was executed using a scoring system and defined as high or low based on 80% cut-off point. Logistic regression was used to investigate the associated factors, in quantitative analysis. The deductive followed by inductive approach was adopted to identify the themes in the qualitative data.

Results

The study revealed that both the awareness about DF and prevention measures were low. Among the surveyed participants, 40.6% had previously heard about DF with a significantly higher number in the lowland areas. Similarly, IDI and FGD participants from the lowland areas were aware about DF, and it’s associated symptoms, hence they were adopting better preventive practices against DF. The findings of both the qualitative and quantitative data indicate that people residing in the lowland areas had better knowledge on DF compared to people in highland areas. All IDI participants perceived a higher chance of increasing future dengue outbreaks due to increasing temperature and the mobility of infected people from endemic to non-endemic areas. The most quoted sources of information were the television (71.8%) and radio (51.5%). Overall, only 2.3% of the HHS participants obtained high knowledge scores, 74.1% obtained high attitude scores and 21.2% obtained high preventive practice scores on DF. Among the socio-demographic variables, the area of residence, educational level, age, monthly income, SES and occupation were independent predictors of knowledge level, while the education level of the participants was an independent predictor of the attitude level.

Conclusions

Our study found a very low level of knowledge and insufficient preventive practices. This highlights an urgent need for extensive dengue prevention programs in both highland and lowland communities of Nepal.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07404-4.

A barcoding pipeline for mosquito surveillance in Nepal, a biodiverse dengue-endemic country

Background

Vector-borne diseases are on the rise on a global scale, which is anticipated to further accelerate because of anthropogenic climate change. Resource-limited regions are especially hard hit by this increment with the currently implemented surveillance programs being inadequate for the observed expansion of potential vector species. Cost-effective methods that can be easily implemented in resource-limited settings, e.g. under field conditions, are thus urgently needed to function as an early warning system for vector-borne disease epidemics. Our aim was to enhance entomological capacity in Nepal, a country with endemicity of numerous vector-borne diseases and with frequent outbreaks of dengue fever.

Methods

We used a field barcoding pipeline based on DNA nanopore sequencing (Oxford Nanopore Technologies) and verified its use for different mosquito life stages and storage methods. We furthermore hosted an online workshop to facilitate knowledge transfer to Nepalese scientific experts from different disciplines.

Results

The use of the barcoding pipeline could be verified for adult mosquitos and eggs, as well as for homogenized samples, dried specimens, samples that were stored in ethanol and frozen tissue. The transfer of knowledge was successful, as reflected by feedback from the participants and their wish to implement the method.

Conclusions

Cost effective strategies are urgently needed to assess the likelihood of disease outbreaks. We were able to show that field sequencing provides a solution that is cost-effective, undemanding in its implementation and easy to learn. The knowledge transfer to Nepalese scientific experts from different disciplines provides an opportunity for sustainable implementation of low-cost portable sequencing solutions in Nepal.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05255-1.

Aedes albopictus abundance and phenology along an altitudinal gradient in Lazio region (central Italy)

Background

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse 1894), which is native to Southeast Asia, is among the top 100 invasive species worldwide and one of the most troubling vector species. It has become established in more than 20 European countries. Since its arrival in Italy in the 1990s, the species has colonized all the regions of the country, up to an altitude of 600 m. Nevertheless, no thorough investigation has ever been performed to confirm or extend its elevation limit (EL) in Italy.

Methods

To define the EL of Ae. albopictus and analyse its phenology along an altitudinal gradient, we carried out an investigation by means of ovitraps placed in Lazio region, central Italy. Sampling was performed on a weekly basis in 13 villages within five 200-m altitudinal ranges [0–1000 m above sea level (asl)], with the addition of higher localities to the species range whenever the species was recorded in the highest range.

Results

Aedes albopictus has colonized sites well beyond its known EL, with established populations at 900 m asl and positive ovitraps recorded at 1193 m asl. The relationship between egg abundance and elevation was described by an exponential decay regression, which predicted an EL for oviposition at 1015 m asl. In the active season, egg-laying started earlier at low altitude and ended earlier within the highest altitudinal range. Aedes albopictus abundance and activity period (number of days active) decreased, respectively, by 95% and 34% from the lowest to the highest altitudinal range.

Conclusions

Using data from the present study, the altitudinal limit of Ae. albopictus in central Italy was updated from 600 to 900 m asl. In addition, established populations were predicted to exist up to 1015 m asl. Considering that up to 99.5% of Lazio region’s inhabitants could potentially be affected by Aedes-borne virus outbreaks, the surveillance area for Ae. albopictus should be expanded accordingly. However, our results also indicate that Ae. albopictus surveillance programs need to be revised in order to harmonize the resources earmarked for these with the altitudinal changes in the phenology of this species.

Graphical abstract

Temperature, season, and latitude influence development-related phenotypes of Philippine Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus): Implications for dengue control amidst global warming

Background

Dengue is endemic in the Philippines. Aedes aegypti is the primary vector. This study aimed to determine the hatching behavior and viability of Ae. aegypti first-generation (F1) eggs when exposed to temperature and photoperiod regimes under laboratory conditions.

Methods

Parental eggs were collected from selected highland and lowland sites in the Philippine big islands (Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao) during the wet (2017–2018) and dry (2018) seasons. F1 egg cohorts were exposed separately in environmental chambers at 18, 25, and 38 °C with respective photoperiods for 6 weeks. Phenotypes (percent pharate larvae [PPL], hatch rates [HRs], and reproductive outputs [ROs]) were determined.

Results

Results of multivariate analyses of variance (MANOVA) between seasons showed significant main effects of temperature, season, and big island on all phenotypes across all sites. Significant interaction effects between seasons on all phenotypes across sites were shown between or among (1) season and big island, (2) season and temperature, (3) big island and temperature, (4) season, big island, and temperature, (5) big island, altitude, and temperature, and (6) season, big island, altitude, and temperature. Factors associated with the big islands might include their ecology, available breeding sites, and day lengths due to latitudinal differences, although they were not measured in the field. MANOVA results within each season on all phenotypes across sites showed (1) significant main effects of big island and temperature, and (2) significant interaction effects between big island and temperature within the wet season and (3) between temperature and photoperiod within the dry season. PPL were highest at 18 °C and were formed even at 38 °C in both seasons. Pharate larvae might play an adaptive role in global warming, expanded distribution to highlands, and preponderance to transmit human diseases. HRs in both seasons were highest at 25 °C and lowest at 38 °C. ROs were highest at 25 °C in the wet season and at 18 °C in the dry season.

Conclusions

Temperature and latitude of Philippine big islands influenced the development-related phenotypes of Ae. aegypti in both seasons. The two seasons influenced the phenotypes and their interaction effects with big island and/or temperature and/or altitude. Recommendations include year-round enhanced 4S control strategies for mosquito vectors and water pipeline installation in rural highlands.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05186-x.

Has COVID-19 suppressed dengue transmission in Nepal?

Following the report of the first COVID-19 case in Nepal on 23 January 2020, three major waves were documented between 2020 and 2021. By the end of July 2022, 986 596 cases of confirmed COVID-19 and 11 967 deaths had been reported and 70.5% of the population had received at least two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. Prior to the pandemic, a large dengue virus (DENV) epidemic affected 68 out of 77 districts, with 17 932 cases and six deaths recorded in 2019. In contrast, the country's Epidemiology and Disease Control Division reported 530 and 540 dengue cases in the pandemic period (2020 and 2021), respectively. Furthermore, Kathmandu reported just 63 dengue cases during 2020 and 2021, significantly lower than the 1463 cases reported in 2019. Serological assay showed 3.2% positivity rates for anti-dengue immunoglobulin M antibodies during the pandemic period, contrasting with 26.9-40% prior to it. Real-time polymerase chain reaction for DENV showed a 0.5% positive rate during the COVID-19 pandemic which is far lower than the 57.0% recorded in 2019. Continuing analyses of dengue incidence and further strengthening of surveillance and collaboration at the regional and international levels are required to fully understand whether the reduction in dengue incidence/transmission were caused by movement restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of Climate Change on Health and Well-Being of People in Hindu Kush Himalayan Region: A Narrative Review

Climate change and variability affect virtually everyone and every region of the world but the effects are nowhere more prominent than in mountain regions and people living therein. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is a vast expanse encompassing 18% of the world’s mountainous area. Sprawling over 4.3 million km², the HKH region occupies areas of eight countries namely Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar, and Pakistan. The HKH region is warming at a rate higher than the global average and precipitation has also increased significantly over the last 6 decades along with increased frequency and intensity of some extreme events. Changes in temperature and precipitation have affected and will like to affect the climate-dependent sectors such as hydrology, agriculture, biodiversity, and human health. This paper aims to document how climate change has impacted and will impact, health and well-being of the people in the HKH region and offers adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of climate change on health and well-being of the people. In the HKH region, climate change boosts infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), malnutrition, and injuries. Hence, climate change adaptation and mitigation measures are needed urgently to safeguard vulnerable populations residing in the HKH region.

The ecophysiological plasticity of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus concerning overwintering in cooler ecoregions is driven by local climate and acclimation capacity

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus transmit diseases such as dengue, and are of major public health concern. Driven by climate change and global trade/travel both species have recently spread to new tropic/subtropic regions and Ae. albopictus also to temperate ecoregions. The capacity of both species to adapt to new environments depends on their ecophysiological plasticity, which is the width of functional niches where a species can survive. Mechanistic distribution models often neglect to incorporate ecophysiological plasticity especially in regards to overwintering capacity in cooler habitats. To portray the ecophysiological plasticity concerning overwintering capability, we conducted temperature experiments with multiple populations of both species originating from an altitudinal gradient in South Asia and tested as follows: the cold tolerance of eggs (-2 °C- 8 days and - 6 °C- 2 days) without and with an experimental winter onset (acclimation: 10 °C- 60 days), differences between a South Asian and a European Ae. albopictus population and the temperature response in life cycles (13 °C, 18 °C, 23 °C, 28 °C). Ecophysiological plasticity in overwintering capacity in Ae. aegypti is high in populations originating from low altitude and in Ae. albopictus populations from high altitude. Overall, ecophysiological plasticity is higher in Ae. albopictus compared to Ae. aegypti. In both species acclimation and in Ae. albopictus temperate continental origin had a huge positive effect on survival. Our results indicate that future mechanistic prediction models can include data on winter survivorship of both, tropic and subtropic Ae. aegypti, whereas for Ae. albopictus this depends on the respective temperate, tropical region the model is focusing on. Future research should address cold tolerance in multiple populations worldwide to evaluate the full potential of the ecophysiological plasticity in the two species. Furthermore, we found that Ae. aegypti can survive winter cold especially when acclimated and will probably further spread to colder ecoregions driven by climate change.

Patterns of dengue in Nepal from 2010-2019 in relation to elevation and climate

BACKGROUND

Understanding and describing the regional and climatic patterns associated with increasing dengue epidemics in Nepal is critical to improving vector and disease surveillance and targeting control efforts.

METHODS

We investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of annual dengue incidence in Nepal from 2010 to 2019, and the impacts of seasonal meteorological conditions (mean maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation) and elevation on those patterns.

RESULTS

More than 25 000 laboratory-confirmed dengue cases were reported from 2010 to 2019. Epidemiological trends suggest that dengue epidemics are cyclical with major outbreaks occurring at 2- to 3-y intervals. A significant negative relationship between dengue incidence and increasing elevation (metres above sea level) driven by temperature was observed (p<0.05) with dengue risk being greatest below 500 m. Risk was moderate between 500 and 1500 m and decreased substantially above 1500 m. Over the last decade, increased nightly temperatures during the monsoon months correlated with increased transmission (p<0.05). No other significant relationship was observed between annual dengue cases or incidence and climatological factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The spatial analysis and interpretation of dengue incidence over the last decade in Nepal confirms that dengue is now a well-established public health threat of increasing importance, particularly in low elevation zones and urbanised areas with a tropical or subtropical climate. Seasonal variations in temperature during the monsoon months are associated with increased transmission.

The impact of climate change on neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a diverse group of diseases that continue to affect >1 billion people, with these diseases disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations and territories. Climate change is having an increasing impact on public health in tropical and subtropical areas and across the world and can affect disease distribution and transmission in potentially diverse ways. Improving our understanding of how climate change influences NTDs can help identify populations at risk to include in future public health interventions. Articles were identified by searching electronic databases for reports of climate change and NTDs between 1 January 2010 and 1 March 2020. Climate change may influence the emergence and re-emergence of multiple NTDs, particularly those that involve a vector or intermediate host for transmission. Although specific predictions are conflicting depending on the geographic area, the type of NTD and associated vectors and hosts, it is anticipated that multiple NTDs will have changes in their transmission period and geographic range and will likely encroach on regions and populations that have been previously unaffected. There is a need for improved surveillance and monitoring to identify areas of NTD incursion and emergence and include these in future public health interventions.

Ecological, Social, and Other Environmental Determinants of Dengue Vector Abundance in Urban and Rural Areas of Northeastern Thailand

Aedes aegypti is the main vector of dengue globally. The variables that influence the abundance of dengue vectors are numerous and complex. This has generated a need to focus on areas at risk of disease transmission, the spatial-temporal distribution of vectors, and the factors that modulate vector abundance. To help guide and improve vector-control efforts, this study identified the ecological, social, and other environmental risk factors that affect the abundance of adult female and immature Ae. aegypti in households in urban and rural areas of northeastern Thailand. A one-year entomological study was conducted in four villages of northeastern Thailand between January and December 2019. Socio-demographic; self-reported prior dengue infections; housing conditions; durable asset ownership; water management; characteristics of water containers; knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding climate change and dengue; and climate data were collected. Household crowding index (HCI), premise condition index (PCI), socio-economic status (SES), and entomological indices (HI, CI, BI, and PI) were calculated. Negative binomial generalized linear models (GLMs) were fitted to identify the risk factors associated with the abundance of adult females and immature Ae. aegypti. Urban sites had higher entomological indices and numbers of adult Ae. aegypti mosquitoes than rural sites. Overall, participants’ KAP about climate change and dengue were low in both settings. The fitted GLM showed that a higher abundance of adult female Ae. aegypti was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with many factors, such as a low education level of household respondents, crowded households, poor premise conditions, surrounding house density, bathrooms located indoors, unscreened windows, high numbers of wet containers, a lack of adult control, prior dengue infections, poor climate change adaptation, dengue, and vector-related practices. Many of the above were also significantly associated with a high abundance of immature mosquito stages. The GLM model also showed that maximum and mean temperature with four-and one-to-two weeks of lag were significant predictors (p < 0.05) of the abundance of adult and immature mosquitoes, respectively, in northeastern Thailand. The low KAP regarding climate change and dengue highlights the engagement needs for vector-borne disease prevention in this region. The identified risk factors are important for the critical first step toward developing routine Aedes surveillance and reliable early warning systems for effective dengue and other mosquito-borne disease prevention and control strategies at the household and community levels in this region and similar settings elsewhere.

In silico studies of fisetin and silymarin as novel chikungunya virus nonstructural proteins inhibitors

Aim: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection is often characterized by fever, rash and arthralgia. Until now, there is no vaccine or antiviral drug available for this disease. Two flavonoid compounds, silymarin and fisetin, were reported to be able to inhibit CHIKV replication. Materials & methods: The interaction between the flavonoid compounds and two CHIKV nonstructural proteins (nsP2 and nsP3) were investigated through molecular docking supported with other analysis such as molecular dynamics simulation and binding free energy calculation. Results: The compounds establish potent, stable and flexible interaction with the binding pocket of the two target proteins. Conclusion: The outcomes of this study support the previously published experimental data on anti-CHIKV activity of the compounds by highlighting the interactions with the proteins’ key residues.

Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents

Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.

The effects of climate on vector-borne disease systems are highly context-dependent. Here, the authors incorporate laboratory-measured physiological traits of the mosquito Aedes aegypti into climate-driven mechanistic models to predict number, timing, and duration of outbreaks in Ecuador and Kenya.

The Eco-Bio-Social Factors That Modulate Aedes aegypti Abundance in South Texas Border Communities

Simple Summary

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is distributed worldwide and has become a major public health concern due to its proclivity for the urban environment, human feeding behavior, and ability to transmit agents of diseases such as Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. In the continental United States, the region known as the Lower Rio Grande Valley is one of the few areas with local mosquito transmission of these pathogens transmitted by Ae. aegypti. With limited resources for mosquito control in this region, understanding the ecological, biological, and social factors that affect Ae. aegypti population can help guide and improve current control efforts. We were able to observe widespread knowledge regarding Zika, but with very low importance given to mosquitoes as a problem. We found that the presence of window-mounted air conditioning units, number of windows and doors, characteristics of the property, and presence of children in the household all influenced the abundance of Ae. aegypti. The current results not only show a need for improved community engagement for increasing disease and mosquito risk awareness, but also provide risk factors that can guide current vector control activities.

Abstract

Aedes aegypti control requires dedicated resources that are usually scarce, limiting the reach and sustainability of vector control programs. This generates a need to focus on areas at risk of disease transmission and also understand the factors that might modulate local mosquito abundance. We evaluated the eco-bio-social factors that modulate indoor and outdoor relative abundance of female Ae. aegypti in communities of South Texas. We conducted housing quality and Knowledge Attitudes and Practices surveys in households that were part of a weekly mosquito surveillance program in November of 2017 and 2018. Our results showed widespread knowledge of mosquitoes and Zika virus by our participants. However, less than 35% considered them as serious problems in this region. The presence of window-mounted air conditioning units increased the risk of female mosquito relative abundance indoors. An increase in outdoor relative abundance was associated with larger properties and a higher number of children between 6 to 17 years of age. Interestingly, we observed that an increasing number of children <5 years of age modulated both indoor and outdoor relative abundance, with a 52% increase indoors and 30% decrease outdoors. The low perception of mosquito and disease risk highlights engagement needs for vector-borne disease prevention in this region. The identified risk factors can help guide public health officials in their efforts to reduce human and vector contact.

Risk Factors for Chikungunya Virus Outbreak in Somali Region of Ethiopia, 2019: Unmatched Case-Control Study

Background. Chikungunya virus is a ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus transmitted by a mosquito bite. Chikungunya virus outbreaks are characterized by rapid spread, and the disease manifests as acute fever. This study aimed at determining risk factors for chikungunya virus outbreak to apply appropriate prevention and control measures. Methods. Unmatched case-control study was performed to identify risk factors of chikungunya outbreak in Somali region of Ethiopia in 2019. Cases and controls were enrolled with 1 : 2 ratio. All cases during the study period (74 cases) and 148 controls were included in the study. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were implemented. The serum samples were tested by real-time polymerase chain reaction at Ethiopian Public Health Institute Laboratory. Results. A total of 74 chikungunya fever cases were reported starting from 19th May 2019 to 8th June 2019. Not using bed net at daytime sleeping (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 20.8; 95% confidence interval (CI): 6.4–66.7), presence of open water holding container (AOR: 4.0; CI: 1.2–3.5), presence of larvae in water holding container (AOR: 4.8; CI: 1.4–16.8), ill person with similar signs and symptoms in the family or neighbors (AOR: 27.9; CI: 6.5–120.4), and not wearing full body cover clothes (AOR: 8.1; CI: 2.2–30.1) were significant risk factors. Conclusion. Not using bed net at daytime sleeping, presence of open water holding container, presence of larvae in water holding container, ill person with similar signs and symptoms in the family or neighbors, and not wearing full body cover clothes are risk factors for chikungunya virus outbreak.

Whole Genome Sequencing of Dengue Virus Serotype 2 from Two Clinical Isolates and Serological Profile of Dengue in the 2015-2016 Nepal Outbreak

Dengue virus (DENV) is the cause of one of the most prevalent neglected tropical diseases, and up to half of the world's population is at risk for infection. Recent results from clinical trials have shown that DENV vaccination can induce the development of severe dengue disease and/or prolong hospitalization after natural infection in certain naive populations. Thus, it is crucial that vaccine development takes into account the history of DENV exposure in the targeted population. In Nepal, DENV infection was first documented in 2004, and despite the increasing prevalence of DENV infection, the population remains relatively naive. However, it is not known which of the four DENV serotypes circulate in Nepal or whether there is evidence of repeated exposure to DENV in the Nepali population. To address this, we studied 112 patients who presented with symptomology suspicious for DENV infection at clinics throughout Nepal during late 2015 and early 2016. Of the 112 patients examined, 39 showed serological and/or genetic evidence of primary or secondary DENV infection: 30 were positive for DENV exposure by IgM/IgG ELISA, two by real-time reverse-transcription PCR (RT-PCR), and seven by both methods. Dengue virus 1-3, but not DENV4, serotypes were detected by RT-PCR. Whole genome sequencing of two DENV2 strains isolated from patients with primary and secondary infections suggests that DENV was introduced into Nepal through India, with which it shares a porous border. Further study is needed to better define the DENV epidemic in Nepal, a country with limited scientific resources and infrastructure.

Invasion of Tropical Montane Cities by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Depends on Continuous Warm Winters and Suitable Urban Biotopes

We provide the first evidence of a recent invasion of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus in Hasselquist, 1762) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse 1894), followed by dengue virus, in tropical montane cities in south-eastern Brazil, Mariana, and Ouro Preto, at mid and high altitudes, respectively. Long-term temperature variation, dengue public data, and sampling of immature and adult mosquitoes (ovitraps and mosquitraps) in contrasting habitats were used to explain the distribution of Aedes in what in these two cities. From 1961 to 2014, the annual temperature increased significantly due to increases in winter temperatures. In the 1990s/2000s, the winter temperature was 1.3°C warmer than in the 1960s, when it varied from 21.2 to 18.9°C. After 2007, the winter temperatures increased and ranged from 21.6 to 21.3°C. The first autochthonous dengue cases in Mariana and Ouro Preto were in 2007, followed by few occurrences until in 2012, when the mean numbers increased three-fold, and peak at 2013. The continuous 'warmer winter' may have trigged the Aedes invasion. Aedes species benefited from higher winter temperatures, which was an important driver of their invasion of the state of Minas Gerais in the 1980s and, more recently, in the remaining montane urban habitats in this region. In both 2009 and 2011, we found more Aedes in Mariana than Ouro Preto, and more Ae. albopictus in green areas and Ae. aegypti in houses, the expected pattern for well-established populations.

Risk factors for Aedes aegypti household pupal persistence in longitudinal entomological household surveys in urban and rural Kenya

Background

Aedes aegypti is an efficient vector of several arboviruses of public health importance, including Zika and dengue. Currently vector management is the only available avenue for disease control. Development of efficient vector control strategies requires a thorough understanding of vector ecology. In this study, we identified households that are consistently productive for Ae. aegypti pupae and determined the ecological and socio-demographic factors associated with the persistence and abundance of pupae in households in rural and urban Kenya.

Methods

We collected socio-demographic, environmental and entomological data monthly from July 2014 to June 2018 from 80 households across four sites in Kenya. Pupae count data were collected via entomological surveillance of households and paired with socio-demographic and environmental data. We calculated pupal persistence within a household as the number of months of pupal presence within a year. We used spatially explicit generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to identify the risk factors for pupal abundance, and a logistic regression to identify the risk factors for pupal persistence in households.

Results

The median number of months of pupal presence observed in households was 4 and ranged from 0 to 35 months. We identified pupal persistence in 85 house-years. The strongest risk factors for high pupal abundance were the presence of bushes or tall grass in the peri-domicile area (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.13–2.28), open eaves (OR: 2.57, 95% CI: 1.33–4.95) and high habitat counts (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.21–1.66). The main risk factors for pupal persistence were the presence of bushes or tall grass in the peri-domicile (OR: 4.20, 95% CI: 1.42–12.46) and high number of breeding sites (OR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.03–4.58).

Conclusions

We observed Ae. aegypti pupal persistence at the household level in urban and rural and in coastal and inland Kenya. High counts of potential breeding containers, vegetation in the peri-domicile area and the presence of eaves were strongly associated with increased risk of pupal persistence and abundance. Targeting households that exhibit pupal persistence alongside the risk factors for pupal abundance in vector control interventions may result in more efficient use of limited resources.

Human Blood Feeding by Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Florida Keys and a Review of the Literature

Aedes aegypti L. is considered to have a proclivity for feeding on human blood even when other hosts are available. However, few studies have demonstrated host use by this mosquito in the continental United States, where local transmission of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses has been recently documented. This study investigated the bloodmeal sources of female Ae. aegypti in the subtropical city of Key West and the surrounding county in Florida with the goal of identifying preferred hosts. Blood-engorged Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were collected from BG Sentinel traps used as part of a routine surveillance program in the Florida Keys (Monroe County, Florida). Bloodmeal samples were analyzed using PCR assays, sequencing, and comparison with reference sequences in GenBank. Aedes aegypti females from Key West fed predominantly on humans (79.6%) and did not differ statistically from females collected from the rest of the Florida Keys (69.5%). Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae), considered a host generalist, was collected and analyzed from the same sites for comparative purposes. Females of Cx. quinquefasciatus fed predominantly (70.7%) on birds and nonhuman mammals in the Florida Keys, corroborating the validity of molecular assay breadth and demonstrating that given the same group of available hosts Ae. aegypti selects humans. Our results indicated that Ae. aegypti has a high rate of human-biting in a subtropical area within the United States, supporting its role in recent local transmission of dengue and other viruses.

Wolbachia: a possible weapon for controlling dengue in Nepal

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral infectious disease, causes a high morbidity and mortality in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. In Nepal, the first case of dengue was reported in 2004 followed by frequent outbreaks in subsequent years, with the largest being in 2019 taking the death toll of six. It is reported that the number of dengue fever cases are soaring in Nepal spreading from the plains to more hilly regions. This might have serious public health implications in the future when combined with other factors, such as: global warming, lack of early detection and treatment of dengue, lack of diagnostic facilities, poor healthcare systems and mosquito control strategies. Nepal, thus, needs a cost-effective mosquito control strategy for the prevention and control of dengue. The Wolbachia-mediated biological method of the dengue control strategy is novel, economic, and environment-friendly. It has been successfully trialed in several areas of dengue-prone countries of the world, including Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam etc. resulting in significant reductions in dengue incidence. Given the lack of effective vector control strategy and weak economic condition of the country along with the persistence of climate and environment conditions that favors the host (Aedes mosquito) for Wolbachia, this approach can be a promising option to control dengue in Nepal.

Retrospective cross-sectional observational study on the epidemiological profile of dengue cases in Pernambuco state, Brazil, between 2015 and 2017

BACKGROUND

The spread of Dengue virus (DENV) infections, as well as their signs and symptoms, are the result of a complex interaction between several factors. In Brazil, especially in the Northeastern, dengue is an important public health problem. Here, we report an epidemiological analysis of dengue cases in Pernambuco state, Northeastern Brazil, during 2015-2017.

METHODS

This work is a retrospective cross-sectional observational study on the epidemiological profile of all dengue cases confirmed and reported to the Health Secretary of Pernambuco between 2015 and 2017. These data cover all municipalities of Pernambuco, except Fernando de Noronha. DENV-positive individuals were classified according to the dengue type (without and with warning signs, or severe dengue), age, gender, ethnicity and intermediate geographic region of residence (Recife, Caruaru, Serra Talhada or Petrolina). The distribution of cases over the years was assessed by χ2 test. Temperature and rainfall data were evaluated by Unpaired t-test. p-value < 0.05 and CI 95% were considered in all analyses.

RESULTS

Most dengue cases was without warning signs. The most observed characteristics in the less severe dengue phenotypes were: female, mulatto ethnicity and age between 20 and 39 years old; this profile was more clearly observed in 2015. In 2016 and 2017, however, the numbers of dengue without and with warning signs were more evenly distributed and the difference in cases within groups decreased significantly. Regarding severe dengue, mulattoes were the most affected, but it is possible to note a trend towards a more uniform distribution between the genders and ages. Recife was the region with the highest numbers of both total cases and incidence rates and the highest rainfall levels. Overall, over the years, there has been a decrease in dengue cases in all regions of Pernambuco.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified the epidemiological profile of dengue in Pernambuco, Brazil, reporting the gender, age, ethnicity and regions most affected by different dengue types. In addition, we observed that these cases were probably more influenced by rainfall than by temperature. Finally, we believe that this epidemiological knowledge is important to direct public health policies to the reality of each population.

Climatic changes and their role in emergence and re-emergence of diseases

Global warming and the associated climate changes are predictable. They are enhanced by burning of fossil fuels and the emission of huge amounts of CO₂ gas which resulted in greenhouse effect. It is expected that the average global temperature will increase with 2-5 °C in the next decades. As a result, the earth will exhibit marked climatic changes characterized by extremer weather events in the coming decades, such as the increase in temperature, rainfall, summertime, droughts, more frequent and stronger tornadoes and hurricanes. Epidemiological disease cycle includes host, pathogen and in certain cases intermediate host/vector. A complex mixture of various environmental conditions (e.g. temperature and humidity) determines the suitable habitat/ecological niche for every vector host. The availability of suitable vectors is a precondition for the emergence of vector-borne pathogens. Climate changes and global warming will have catastrophic effects on human, animal and environmental ecosystems. Pathogens, especially neglected tropical disease agents, are expected to emerge and re-emerge in several countries including Europe and North America. The lives of millions of people especially in developing countries will be at risk in direct and indirect ways. In the present review, the role of climate changes in the spread of infectious agents and their vectors is discussed. Examples of the major emerging viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases are also summarized.

Distribution and pyrethroid resistance status of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus populations and possible phylogenetic reasons for the recent invasion of Aedes aegypti in Nepal

Background

When the first systematic list of mosquitoes in Nepal was reported in 1990, there was no description of Aedes aegypti (L.), while Aedes albopictus (Skuse) has been included in the Stegomyia subgroup since the 1950s. The first record of Ae. aegypti in Nepal was reported in 2009, suggesting some coincidence between the invasion of this species and the first record of dengue fever in Nepal in 2006.

Results

We performed a field survey of the distribution and insecticide susceptibility of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Nepal in 2017 and 2018. Mosquito larvae were collected from used tires located along the streets of Kathmandu, Bharatpur and Pokhara, and a simplified bioassay was used to assess the susceptibility of the larvae to pyrethroid insecticides using d-allethrin. The presence or absence of point mutations in the voltage-gated sodium channel was also detected by direct sequencing. V1016G was detected at a high frequency and a strong correlation was observed between the frequencies of V1016G and susceptibility indices in Ae. aegypti populations. F1534C was also detected at a relatively low frequency. In Ae. albopictus populations, susceptibilities to d-allethrin were high and no point mutations were detected. Analysis of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) gene was performed for assessing genetic diversity and the existence of two strains were identified in Ae. aegypti populations. One consisted of 9 globally-distributed haplotypes while the other was derived from an African haplotype.

Conclusions

The high pyrethroid resistance, high V1016G frequency, and relatively low quantity of insecticides used to control dengue vectors in Nepal may have resulted in only weak selection pressure favoring insecticide resistance and could support the hypothesis that this species has recently been introduced from neighboring Asian countries where pyrethroid resistance is relatively widespread.

Chemical Composition of Actinodaphne pilosa Essential Oil From Vietnam, Mosquito Larvicidal Activity, and Antimicrobial Activity

Leaves of Actinodaphne pilosa were collected at 2 different seasons from the Pù Hoạt Nature Reserve, Vietnam. The leaf samples were hydrodistilled to give essential oils, which were analyzed by gas chromatography (GC)–mass spectrometry and GC-flame ionization detection. The major components in the essential oils were α-pinene, ( Z)-β-ocimene, ( E)-β-ocimene, β-caryophyllene, germacrene D, bicyclogermacrene, and spathulenol. The essential oils were screened for antimicrobial activity against Enterococcus faecalis, Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus cereus, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Candida albicans, as well as mosquito larvicidal activity against Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, and Culex quinquefasciatus. Actinodaphne pilosa leaf essential oils showed broad antimicrobial activity (minimum inhibitory concentration = 32, 64, 64, 16, and 16 μg/mL against E. faecalis, S. aureus, B. cereus, P. aeruginosa, and C. albicans, respectively) and excellent larvicidal activity (24-hour 50% lethal concentration = 19.0, 24.7, and 48.1 μg/mL against A. aegypti, A. albopictus, and C. quinquefasciatus, respectively).

High incidence of dengue in Israel travelers to Kathmandu, Nepal, in 2019

We describe the emergence of dengue in Kathmandu in Nepal in 2019. We found a high incidence in Israeli travelers. The circulating serotypes were identified as DENV-2 and DENV-3 with phylogenetic analysis suggesting that the latter serotype originated from India. Travelers to Nepal should be aware of the potential dengue risk beyond the Terai.

Callicarpa Species from Central Vietnam: Essential Oil Compositions and Mosquito Larvicidal Activities

There are around 140 species in the genus Callicarpa, with 23 species occurring in Vietnam. The Vietnamese Callicarpa species have been poorly studied. In this work, the leaf essential oils of C. bodinieri, C. candicans, C. formosana, C. longifolia, C. nudiflora, C. petelotii, C. rubella, and C. sinuata, have been obtained from plants growing in central Vietnam. The chemical compositions of the essential oils were determined using gas chromatography – mass spectrometry. Mosquito larvicidal activities of the essential oils were carried out against Aedes aegypti. All of the Callicarpa leaf essential oils showed larvicidal activity, but two samples of C. candicans were particularly active with 48-h LC₅₀ values of 2.1 and 3.8 μg/mL. Callicarpacandicans essential oil should be considered as a potential alternative mosquito control agent.

When Micro Drives the Macro: A Fresh Look at Disease and its Massive Contributions in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya

The outbreaks of emerging and reemerging diseases have a high impact on the human and animal health because they are the underlying causes of disability, death, and long-term illness. For many regions those details are not, or just poorly known. Here we present on the morbidity and mortality in faunal diversities including domestic and wild species caused by various viral, bacterial, parasitic, and fungal diseases prevalent in Nepal and relevant for the wider Hindu Kush Himalaya. In addition, we provide details how antibiotic resistivity, vectors, and zoonosis have resulted on a landscape-scale in the huge public and veterinary health problem has been dealt with in the context of Nepal and the wider region.

Disease surveillance using online news: an extended study of dengue fever in India

BACKGROUND

The study demonstrates the potential in using newspaper information as a proxy for monitoring dengue fever outbreaks in India. Online newspapers are being considered as sources of information on disease surveillance, early outbreak detection, and epidemiology research. Our objective is to understand the complex dengue epidemiology and discover inter-relationships between dengue fever and local social-environmental factors by mining information from local Indian news articles.

RESULTS

We search and extract articles from the newspaper database, LexisNexis. News articles related to dengue fever in India are analyzed together with local environmental, climate, and population data in both temporally and spatially to study disease epidemiology. We also examine the influence of newsworthiness for constructing a disease surveillance system. In terms of temporal aspects, dengue outbreaks follow consistent patterns every year. However, for many areas, this application is frustrated by the relatively small numbers of news articles.

CONCLUSIONS

The study has advanced capabilities in producing approaches that provide for richer interpretations of textual information provided in newspaper articles. Such approaches appear particularly well suited for developing countries with relatively poor medical infrastructures and records.

Seasonality modeling of the distribution of Aedes albopictus in China based on climatic and environmental suitability

Background

Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive mosquito species and a major vector of numerous viral pathogens. Many recent dengue fever outbreaks in China have been caused solely by the vector. Mapping of the potential distribution ranges of Ae. albopictus is crucial for epidemic preparedness and the monitoring of vector populations for disease control. Climate is a key factor influencing the distribution of the species. Despite field studies indicating seasonal population variations, very little modeling work has been done to analyze how environmental conditions influence the seasonality of Ae. albopictus. The aim of the present study was to develop a model based on available observations, climatic and environmental data, and machine learning methods for the prediction of the potential seasonal ranges of Ae. albopictus in China.

Methods

We collected comprehensive up-to-date surveillance data in China, particularly records from the northern distribution margin of Ae. albopictus. All records were assigned long-term (1970–2000) climatic data averages based on the WorldClim 2.0 data set. Machine learning regression tree models were developed using a 10-fold cross-validation method to predict the potential seasonal (or monthly) distribution ranges of Ae. albopictus in China at high resolution based on environmental conditions. The models were assessed based on sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy, using area under curve (AUC). WorldClim 2.0 and climatic and environmental data were used to produce environmental conduciveness (probability) prediction surfaces. Predicted probabilities were generated based on the averages of the 10 models.

Results

During 1998–2017, Ae. albopictus was observed at 200 out of the 242 localities surveyed. In addition, at least 15 new Ae. albopictus occurrence sites lay outside the potential ranges that have been predicted using models previously. The average accuracy was 98.4% (97.1–99.5%), and the average AUC was 99.1% (95.6–99.9%). The predicted Ae. albopictus distribution in winter (December–February) was limited to a small subtropical-tropical area of China, and Ae. albopictus was predicted to occur in northern China only during the short summer season (usually June–September). The predicted distribution areas in summer could reach northeastern China bordering Russia and the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in southwestern China. Ae. albopictus could remain active in expansive areas from central to southern China in October and November.

Conclusions

Climate and environmental conditions are key factors influencing the seasonal distribution of Ae. albopictus in China. The areas predicted to potentially host Ae. albopictus seasonally in the present study could reach northeastern China and the eastern slope of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our results present new evidence and suggest the expansion of systematic vector population monitoring activities and regular re-assessment of epidemic risk potential.

Spatiotemporal analysis of historical records (2001-2012) on dengue fever in Vietnam and development of a statistical model for forecasting risk

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is the most widespread infectious disease of humans transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. It is the leading cause of hospitalization and death in children in the Southeast Asia and western Pacific regions. We analyzed surveillance records from health centers in Vietnam collected between 2001-2012 to determine seasonal trends, develop risk maps and an incidence forecasting model.

METHODS

The data were analyzed using a hierarchical spatial Bayesian model that approximates its posterior parameter distributions using the integrated Laplace approximation algorithm (INLA). Meteorological, altitude and land cover (LC) data were used as predictors. The data were grouped by province (n = 63) and month (n = 144) and divided into training (2001-2009) and validation (2010-2012) sets. Thirteen meteorological variables, 7 land cover data and altitude were considered as predictors. Only significant predictors were kept in the final multivariable model. Eleven dummy variables representing month were also fitted to account for seasonal effects. Spatial and temporal effects were accounted for using Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) and autoregressive (1) models. Their levels of significance were analyzed using deviance information criterion (DIC). The model was validated based on the Theil's coefficient which compared predicted and observed incidence estimated using the validation data. Dengue incidence predictions for 2010-2012 were also used to generate risk maps.

RESULTS

The mean monthly dengue incidence during the period was 6.94 cases (SD 14.49) per 100,000 people. Analyses on the temporal trends of the disease showed regular seasonal epidemics that were interrupted every 3 years (specifically in July 2004, July 2007 and September 2010) by major fluctuations in incidence. Monthly mean minimum temperature, rainfall, area under urban settlement/build-up areas and altitude were significant in the final model. Minimum temperature and rainfall had non-linear effects and lagging them by two months provided a better fitting model compared to using unlagged variables. Forecasts for the validation period closely mirrored the observed data and accurately captured the troughs and peaks of dengue incidence trajectories. A favorable Theil's coefficient of inequality of 0.22 was generated.

CONCLUSIONS

The study identified temperature, rainfall, altitude and area under urban settlement as being significant predictors of dengue incidence. The statistical model fitted the data well based on Theil's coefficient of inequality, and risk maps generated from its predictions identified most of the high-risk provinces throughout the country.

Chemical Compositions and Mosquito Larvicidal Activities of Essential Oils from Piper Species Growing Wild in Central Vietnam

Mosquitoes are the deadliest animals on earth and are the vectors of several neglected tropical diseases. Recently, essential oils have emerged as potential renewable, cost-effective, and environmentally benign alternatives to synthetic pesticides for control of mosquitoes. In this work, thirteen species of Piper were collected from different areas of central Vietnam. The essential oils were obtained by hydrodistillation and analyzed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. The essential oils were screened for mosquito larvicidal activity against Aedes aegypti. Four of the Piper essential oils showed outstanding larvicidal activity against Ae. aegypti, namely P. caninum, P. longum, P. montium, and P. mutabile, with LC₅₀ and LC₉₀ values less than 10 µg/mL. Multivariate analysis has correlated concentrations of β-caryophyllene, β-bisabolene, α-pinene, and β-pinene with mosquito larvicidal activity.

A field-based modeling study on ecological characterization of hourly host-seeking behavior and its associated climatic variables in Aedes albopictus

BACKGROUND

The global spread of mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) has presented increasing challenges to public health. The transmission of MBD is mainly attributable to the biting behaviors of female mosquitoes. However, the ecological pattern of hourly host-seeking behavior in Aedes albopictus and its association with climatic variables are still not well understood, especially for a precise requirement for establishing an effective risk prediction system of MBD transmission.

METHODS

Mosquito samples and data on mosquito hourly density and site-specific climatic variables, including temperature, relative humidity, illuminance and wind speed, were collected simultaneously in urban outdoor environments in Guangzhou during 2016-2018. Kernel regression models were used to assess the temporal patterns of hourly host-seeking behavior in mosquito populations, and negative binomial regression models in the Bayesian framework were used to investigate the associations of host-seeking behavior with climatic variables.

RESULTS

Aedes albopictus was abundant, constituting 82% (5569/6790) of the total collected mosquitoes. Host-seeking behavior in Ae. albopictus varied across time and was significantly influenced by climatic variables. The predicted hourly mosquito densities showed non-linear relationships with temperature and illuminance, whereas density increased with relative humidity but generally decreased with wind speed. The range of temperature estimates for female biting was 16.4-37.1 °C, peaking at 26.5 °C (95% credible interval: 25.3-28.1). During the favorable periods, biting behavior of female Ae. albopictus was estimated to occur frequently all day long, presenting a bimodal distribution with peaks within 2-3 h around both dawn and dusk (05:00-08:00 h and 16:00-19:00 h). Moreover, a short-term association in hourly density between the females and males was found.

CONCLUSIONS

Our field-based modeling study reveals that hourly host-seeking behavior of Ae. albopictus exhibits a complex pattern, with hourly variation constrained significantly by climatic variables. These findings lay a foundation for improving MBD risk assessments as well as practical strategies for vector control. For instances of all-day-long frequent female biting during the favorable periods in Guangzhou, effective integrated mosquito control measures must be taken throughout the day and night.

A field-based modeling study on ecological characterization of hourly host-seeking behavior and its associated climatic variables in Aedes albopictus

BACKGROUND

The global spread of mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) has presented increasing challenges to public health. The transmission of MBD is mainly attributable to the biting behaviors of female mosquitoes. However, the ecological pattern of hourly host-seeking behavior in Aedes albopictus and its association with climatic variables are still not well understood, especially for a precise requirement for establishing an effective risk prediction system of MBD transmission.

METHODS

Mosquito samples and data on mosquito hourly density and site-specific climatic variables, including temperature, relative humidity, illuminance and wind speed, were collected simultaneously in urban outdoor environments in Guangzhou during 2016-2018. Kernel regression models were used to assess the temporal patterns of hourly host-seeking behavior in mosquito populations, and negative binomial regression models in the Bayesian framework were used to investigate the associations of host-seeking behavior with climatic variables.

RESULTS

Aedes albopictus was abundant, constituting 82% (5569/6790) of the total collected mosquitoes. Host-seeking behavior in Ae. albopictus varied across time and was significantly influenced by climatic variables. The predicted hourly mosquito densities showed non-linear relationships with temperature and illuminance, whereas density increased with relative humidity but generally decreased with wind speed. The range of temperature estimates for female biting was 16.4-37.1 °C, peaking at 26.5 °C (95% credible interval: 25.3-28.1). During the favorable periods, biting behavior of female Ae. albopictus was estimated to occur frequently all day long, presenting a bimodal distribution with peaks within 2-3 h around both dawn and dusk (05:00-08:00 h and 16:00-19:00 h). Moreover, a short-term association in hourly density between the females and males was found.

CONCLUSIONS

Our field-based modeling study reveals that hourly host-seeking behavior of Ae. albopictus exhibits a complex pattern, with hourly variation constrained significantly by climatic variables. These findings lay a foundation for improving MBD risk assessments as well as practical strategies for vector control. For instances of all-day-long frequent female biting during the favorable periods in Guangzhou, effective integrated mosquito control measures must be taken throughout the day and night.

Spatial distribution of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in vulnerable areas for the transmission of arboviruses

INTRODUCTION

Areas at risk of transmission of arboviruses have been monitored using ovitraps. This study aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution of Aedes aegypti in vulnerable areas for the transmission of arboviruses and assess the influence of climatic conditions on the infestation of these culicids.

METHODS

Ovitraps were installed in Agrestina, Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil.

RESULTS

Overall, 44,936 eggs were collected, and the indexes of infestation varied. Relative humidity was significantly associated with the infestations.

CONCLUSIONS

Using ovitraps, entomologic indexes and analysis of climatic factors might be good strategies for monitoring vulnerable areas for the transmission of arboviruses.

Seasonal patterns of dengue fever in rural Ecuador: 2009-2016

Season is a major determinant of infectious disease rates, including arboviruses spread by mosquitoes, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. Seasonal patterns of disease are driven by a combination of climatic or environmental factors, such as temperature or rainfall, and human behavioral time trends, such as school year schedules, holidays, and weekday-weekend patterns. These factors affect both disease rates and healthcare-seeking behavior. Seasonality of dengue fever has been studied in the context of climatic factors, but short- and long-term time trends are less well-understood. With 2009–2016 medical record data from patients diagnosed with dengue fever at two hospitals in rural Ecuador, we used Poisson generalized linear modeling to determine short- and long-term seasonal patterns of dengue fever, as well as the effect of day of the week and public holidays. In a subset analysis, we determined the impact of school schedules on school-aged children. With a separate model, we examined the effect of climate on diagnosis patterns. In the first model, the most important predictors of dengue fever were annual sinusoidal fluctuations in disease, long-term trends (as represented by a spline for the full study duration), day of the week, and hospital. Seasonal trends showed single peaks in case diagnoses, during mid-March. Compared to the average of all days, cases were more likely to be diagnosed on Tuesdays (risk ratio (RR): 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05–1.51) and Thursdays (RR: 1.25, 95% CI 1.02–1.53), and less likely to be diagnosed on Saturdays (RR: 0.81, 95% CI 0.65–1.01) and Sundays (RR: 0.74, 95% CI 0.58–0.95). Public holidays were not significant predictors of dengue fever diagnoses, except for an increase in diagnoses on the day after Christmas (RR: 2.77, 95% CI 1.46–5.24). School schedules did not impact dengue diagnoses in school-aged children. In the climate model, important climate variables included the monthly total precipitation, an interaction between total precipitation and monthly absolute minimum temperature, an interaction between total precipitation and monthly precipitation days, and a three-way interaction between minimum temperature, total precipitation, and precipitation days. This is the first report of long-term dengue fever seasonality in Ecuador, one of few reports from rural patients, and one of very few studies utilizing daily disease reports. These results can inform local disease prevention efforts, public health planning, as well as global and regional models of dengue fever trends.

Dengue fever exhibits a seasonal pattern in many parts of the world, much of which has been attributed to climate and weather. However, additional factors may contribute to dengue seasonality. With 2009–2016 medical record data from rural Ecuador, we studied the short- and long-term seasonal patterns of dengue fever, as well as the effect of school schedules and public holidays. We also examined the effect of climate on dengue. We found that dengue diagnoses peak once per year in mid-March, but that diagnoses are also affected by day of the week. Dengue was also impacted by regional climate and complex interactions between local weather variables. This is the first report of long-term dengue fever seasonality in Ecuador, one of few reports from rural patients, and one of very few studies utilizing daily disease reports. This is the first report on the impacts of school schedules, holidays, and weekday-weekend patterns on dengue diagnoses. These results suggest a potential impact of human behaviors on dengue exposure risk. More broadly, these results can inform local disease prevention efforts and public health planning, as well as global and regional models of dengue fever trends.