Modelling coral reef futures to inform management: can reducing local-scale stressors conserve reefs under climate change?

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.

Seventeen-year study reveals fluctuations in key ecological indicators on two reef crests in Cuba

Reef crests in the Caribbean have lost approximately 80% of the foundational habitat-forming coral Acropora palmata (Lamarck, 1816), with declines registered as early as the 1950s mainly from anthropogenic causes. We studied two reef crests in the northwestern region of Cuba over 17 years (2005 to 2021) to evaluate temporal changes in coral cover, dominated by A. palmata, and their potential drivers. The density of A. palmata generally showed a negative trend at both reefs, with the lowest density recorded in 2021 at 0.2 ± 0.05 col. m-2 at Playa Baracoa and 1.0 ± 0.1 col. m-2 at Rincon de Guanabo. The mean size of the colonies in the two reefs also decreased over time. In Playa Baracoa, the mean diameter of A. palmata colonies decreased from 2012 at 67 ± 5.9 cm to 2013 at 34 ± 2.2 cm, whereas in Rincon de Guanabo, a change in diameter was evident from 2015 at 44.3 ± 2.3 to 2021 at 21.6 ± 0.9 cm. Adult colonies (10 cm-50 cm diameter) predominated in most years on both reefs. The populations of A. palmata on both reefs were healthy, with an average of 70% colonies in good condition during the study period. However, A. palmata cover decreased by almost half by 2021, to 8.6% in Playa Baracoa and 16.8% in Rincon de Guanabo. By contrast, macroalgal cover increased two-fold to 87.1% in Playa Baracoa and four-fold to 77.2% in Rincon de Guanabo. The density of the sea urchin Diadema antillarum was higher in Playa Baracoa than in Rincon de Guanabo. The highest densities were 2.8 ± 0.2 ind. m-2 in Playa Baracoa in 2005 and 0.1 ± 0.03 ind. m-2 in Rincon de Guanabo in 2008. Although our results show an overall decline of A. palmata (density and percent cover) and an increase in macroalgae, these two reef crests are in better condition than most reefs in the Caribbean in terms of the density and health of A. palmata populations, and the density of D. antillarum at Playa Baracoa. Our results are important in establishing a management plan to ensure the condition of these reef crests does not degrade further.

Detection and impact of sewage pollution on South Kohala's coral reefs, Hawai'i

Sewage pollution from on-site sewage disposal systems and injection wells is impacting coral reefs worldwide. Our study documented the presence and impact of sewage on South Kohala's coral reefs, on Hawai'i Island, through benthic water quality and macroalgal sampling (fecal indicator bacteria, nutrients, δ¹⁵N macroalgal tissue), NO₃^- stable isotope mixing models, water motion measurements, and coral reef surveys. Sewage pollution was moderate on the offshore reef from benthic seeps, and water motion mixed and diluted it across the benthos. These conditions likely contribute to the dominance of turf algae cover, and the severity and prevalence of growth anomalies and algal overgrowth on corals. Use of multiple indicators and studying water motion was necessary to assess sewage pollution and identify environmental drivers associated with impaired coral health conditions. Methods used in this study can be utilized by natural resource managers to identify and reduce anthropogenic stressors to coral reefs.

The impact of cumulative stressor effects on uncertainty and ecological risk

To enable environmental management actions to be more effectively prioritized, cumulative effects between multiple stressors need to be accounted for in risk-assessment frameworks. Ecological risk and uncertainty are generally high when multiple stressors occur. In the face of high uncertainty, transparent communication is essential to inform decision-making. The impact of stressor interactions on risk and uncertainty was assessed using generalized linear models for additive and multiplicative effect of six anthropogenic stressors on the abundance of estuarine macrofauna across New Zealand. Models that accounted for multiplicative stressor interactions demonstrated that non-additive effects dominated, had increased explanatory power (6 to 73 % relative increase between models), and thereby reduced the risk of unexpected ecological responses to stress. Secondly, 3D-plots provide important insights in the direction, magnitude and gradients of change, and aid transparency and communication of complex stressor effects. Notably, small changes in a stressor can cause a disproportionally steep gradient of change for a synergistic effect where the tolerance to stressors are lost, and would invoke precautionary management. 3D-plots were able to clearly identify directional shifts where the nature of the interaction changed from antagonistic to synergistic along increasing stressor gradients. For example, increased nitrogen load and exposure caused a shift from positive to negative effect on the abundance of a deposit-feeding polychaete (Magelona). Assessments relying on model coefficient estimates, which provide one effect term, could not capture the complexities observed in 3D-plots and are at risk of mis-identifying interaction types. Finally, visualising model uncertainty demonstrated that although error terms were higher for multiplicative models, they better captured the uncertainty caused by data availability. Together, the steep gradients of change identified in 3D-plots and the higher uncertainty in model predictions in multiplicative models urges more conservative limits to be set for management that account for risk and uncertainty in multiple stressor effects.

Effects of sediment exposure on corals: a systematic review of experimental studies

BACKGROUND

Management actions that address local-scale stressors on coral reefs can rapidly improve water quality and reef ecosystem condition. In response to reef managers who need actionable thresholds for coastal runoff and dredging, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of experimental studies that explore the effects of sediment on corals. We identified exposure levels that 'adversely' affect corals while accounting for sediment bearing (deposited vs. suspended), coral life-history stage, and species, thus providing empirically based estimates of stressor thresholds on vulnerable coral reefs.

METHODS

We searched online databases and grey literature to obtain a list of potential studies, assess their eligibility, and critically appraise them for validity and risk of bias. Data were extracted from eligible studies and grouped by sediment bearing and coral response to identify thresholds in terms of the lowest exposure levels that induced an adverse physiological and/or lethal effect. Meta-regression estimated the dose-response relationship between exposure level and the magnitude of a coral's response, with random-effects structures to estimate the proportion of variance explained by factors such as study and coral species.

REVIEW FINDINGS

After critical appraisal of over 15,000 records, our systematic review of corals' responses to sediment identified 86 studies to be included in meta-analyses (45 studies for deposited sediment and 42 studies for suspended sediment). The lowest sediment exposure levels that caused adverse effects in corals were well below the levels previously described as 'normal' on reefs: for deposited sediment, adverse effects occurred as low as 1 mg/cm²/day for larvae (limited settlement rates) and 4.9 mg/cm²/day for adults (tissue mortality); for suspended sediment, adverse effects occurred as low as 10 mg/L for juveniles (reduced growth rates) and 3.2 mg/L for adults (bleaching and tissue mortality). Corals take at least 10 times longer to experience tissue mortality from exposure to suspended sediment than to comparable concentrations of deposited sediment, though physiological changes manifest 10 times faster in response to suspended sediment than to deposited sediment. Threshold estimates derived from continuous response variables (magnitude of adverse effect) largely matched the lowest-observed adverse-effect levels from a summary of studies, or otherwise helped us to identify research gaps that should be addressed to better quantify the dose-response relationship between sediment exposure and coral health.

CONCLUSIONS

We compiled a global dataset that spans three oceans, over 140 coral species, decades of research, and a range of field- and lab-based approaches. Our review and meta-analysis inform the no-observed and lowest-observed adverse-effect levels (NOAEL, LOAEL) that are used in management consultations by U.S. federal agencies. In the absence of more location- or species-specific data to inform decisions, our results provide the best available information to protect vulnerable reef-building corals from sediment stress. Based on gaps and limitations identified by our review, we make recommendations to improve future studies and recommend future synthesis to disentangle the potentially synergistic effects of multiple coral-reef stressors.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13750-022-00256-0.

Critical problems associated with climate change: a systematic review and meta-analysis of Philippine fisheries research

This paper proposes to analyze the scientific production on climate change and fisheries in the Philippine context. This research theme was chosen considering the continuous increase in scientific studies related to climate change and fisheries and will therefore help in directing researchers on future directions for research to aid in addressing critical issues in the Philippine fisheries. A total of 69 search articles were extracted using the set criteria, indexed in Web of Science, and Scopus, covering the period from 1960 to 2020. After careful screening for eligibility, twenty-seven full-text articles were chosen for qualitative synthesis. Among the literature reviewed, research foci were categorized into four: impacts assessment (56% or 15 studies) followed by management (22% or 6 studies), adaptation (15% or 4 studies), and perception (7% or 2 studies), and main themes were categorized into four: resource management (59%), economy and livelihood (19%), governance and stakeholder participation (11%), and community marginalization (11%). This review contributes to the literature by identifying research potentials and suggesting a prescriptive approach to Philippine fisheries and climate change studies.

The mismeasure of conservation

One of the basic purposes of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation interventions is to achieve conservation impact, the sum of avoided biodiversity loss and promoted recovery relative to outcomes without protection. In the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity's negotiations on the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, we find that targets for area-based interventions are framed overwhelmingly with measures that fail to inform decision-makers about impact and that risk diverting limited resources away from achieving it. We show that predicting impact in space and time is feasible and can provide the basis for global guidance for jurisdictions to develop targets for conservation impact and shift investment priorities to areas where impact can be most effectively achieved.

The coral conservation crisis: interacting local and global stressors reduce reef resiliency and create challenges for conservation solutions

Coral reefs are one of the most productive and biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Humans rely on these coral reef ecosystems to provide significant ecological and economic resources; however, coral reefs are threatened by numerous local and global anthropogenic factors that cause significant environmental change. The interactions of these local and global human impacts may increase the rate of coral reef degradation. For example, there are many local influences (i.e., sedimentation and submarine groundwater discharge) that may exacerbate coral bleaching and mortality. Therefore, researchers and resource managers cannot limit their narratives and actions to mitigating a sole stressor. With the continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions, management strategies and restoration techniques need to account for the scale at which environmental change occurs. This review aims to outline the various local and global anthropogenic stressors threatening reef resiliency and address the recent disagreements surrounding present-day conservation practices. Unfortunately, there is no one solution to preserve and restore all coral reefs. Each coral reef region is challenged by numerous interactive stressors that affect its ecosystem response, recovery, and services in various ways. This review discusses, while global reef degradation occurs, local solutions should be implemented to efficiently protect the coral reef ecosystem services that are valuable to marine and terrestrial environments.

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.

Population structure and microbial community diversity of two common tetillid sponges in a tropical reef lagoon

Sponges are predicted to dominate future reef ecosystems influenced by anthropogenic stressors and global climate change. The ecological success of sponges is attributed to their complex physiology, which is in part due to the diversity of their associated prokaryotic microbiome. However, the lack of information on the microbial community of many sponge species makes it difficult to gauge their interactions and functional contributions to the ecosystem. Here, we investigated the population dynamics and microbial community composition of two tetillid sponges identified as Cinachyrella sp. and Paratetilla sp., which are common on coral bommies in a reef lagoon in Bolinao, northwestern Philippines. The sponges ranged in size from 2.75 ± 2.11 to 6.33 ± 3.98 cm (mean ± standard deviation) and were found at an average density of 1.57 ± 0.79 to 4.46 ± 3.60 individuals per sq. m. on the bommies. The tetillid sponge population structure remained stable over the course of four years of monitoring. Prokaryotic communities associated with the sponges were distinct but had overlapping functions based on PICRUSt2 predictions. This convergence of functions may reflect enrichment of metabolic processes that are crucial for the survival of the tetillid sponges under prevailing conditions in the reef lagoon. Differentially enriched functions related to carbon, sulfur, fatty acid, and amino acid metabolism, cellular defense, and stress response, may influence the interactions of tetillid sponges with other biota on the bommies.

Nitrogen eutrophication particularly promotes turf algae in coral reefs of the central Red Sea

While various sources increasingly release nutrients to the Red Sea, knowledge about their effects on benthic coral reef communities is scarce. Here, we provide the first comparative assessment of the response of all major benthic groups (hard and soft corals, turf algae and reef sands—together accounting for 80% of the benthic reef community) to in-situ eutrophication in a central Red Sea coral reef. For 8 weeks, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations were experimentally increased 3-fold above environmental background concentrations around natural benthic reef communities using a slow release fertilizer with 15% total nitrogen (N) content. We investigated which major functional groups took up the available N, and how this changed organic carbon (C_org) and N contents using elemental and stable isotope measurements. Findings revealed that hard corals (in their tissue), soft corals and turf algae incorporated fertilizer N as indicated by significant increases in δ¹⁵N by 8%, 27% and 28%, respectively. Among the investigated groups, C_org content significantly increased in sediments (+24%) and in turf algae (+33%). Altogether, this suggests that among the benthic organisms only turf algae were limited by N availability and thus benefited most from N addition. Thereby, based on higher C_org content, turf algae potentially gained competitive advantage over, for example, hard corals. Local management should, thus, particularly address DIN eutrophication by coastal development and consider the role of turf algae as potential bioindicator for eutrophication.

Integrated assessment of the spatial distribution and structural dynamics of deep benthic marine communities

Characterizing the spatial distribution and variation of species communities and validating these characteristics with data from the field are key elements for an ecosystem-based approach to management. However, models of species distributions that yield community structure are usually not linked to models of community dynamics, constraining understanding and management of the ecosystem, particularly in data-poor regions. Here we use a qualitative network model to predict changes in Antarctic benthic community structure between major marine habitats characterized largely by seafloor depth and slope, and use multivariate mixture models of species distributions to validate the community dynamics. We then assess how future increases in primary production associated with anticipated loss of sea-ice may affect the ecosystem. Our study shows how both spatial and structural features of ecosystems in data-poor regions can be analyzed and possible futures assessed, with direct relevance for ecosystem-based management.

Multiple stressor effects on coral reef ecosystems

Global climate change has profound implications on species distributions and ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, ecological responses may be driven by various biogeochemical and physical environmental factors. Synergistic interactions can occur when the combined effects of stressors exceed their individual effects. The Red Sea, characterized by strong gradients in temperature, salinity, and nutrients along the latitudinal axis provides a unique opportunity to study ecological responses over a range of these environmental variables. Using multiple linear regression models integrating in situ, satellite and oceanographic data, we investigated the response of coral reef taxa to local stressors and recent climate variability. Taxa and functional groups responded to a combination of climate (temperature, salinity, air-sea heat fluxes, irradiance, wind speed), fishing pressure and biogeochemical (chlorophyll a and nutrients - phosphate, nitrate, nitrite) factors. The regression model for each species showed interactive effects of climate, fishing pressure and nutrient variables. The nature of the effects (antagonistic or synergistic) was dependent on the species and stressor pair. Variables consistently associated with the highest number of synergistic interactions included heat flux terms, temperature, and wind speed followed by fishing pressure. Hard corals and coralline algae abundance were sensitive to changing environmental conditions where synergistic interactions decreased their percentage cover. These synergistic interactions suggest that the negative effects of fishing pressure and eutrophication may exacerbate the impact of climate change on corals. A high number of interactions were also recorded for algae, however for this group, synergistic interactions increased algal abundance. This study is unique in applying regression analysis to multiple environmental variables simultaneously to understand stressor interactions in the field. The observed responses have important implications for understanding climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and whether managing local stressors, such as nutrient enrichment and fishing activities, may help mitigate global drivers of change.

Preferences and perceptions of the recreational spearfishery of the Great Barrier Reef

Recreational fishing practices can have significant impacts on marine ecosystems but their catch dynamics are often difficult to quantify, particularly for spearfishing. On coral reefs, the impacts of recreational spearfishing are often considered to be negligible compared to other practices, but the highly selective method adopted by spearfishers can result in locally distinct ecological consequences. Here we investigated the spatial patterns and catch composition of recreational spearfishers on the Great Barrier Reef using an online survey (n = 141 participants) targeted at spearfishers active along the coastline of Queensland. Observations from within the Queensland spearfishing community were also used to explore perceived changes in catches of three functionally distinct spearing targets. Preferred reef regions (coastal, inshore, offshore) differed among spearfishers from Bundaberg (south) to Cooktown (north). The piscivorous coral trout, Plectropomus leopardus, was suggested to be the preferred target comprising 34% (±1.5 SE) of spearfishers' reported catch composition. Spearfishers also noted a variety of changes in their catch composition over time, particularly regarding parrotfishes (decreased landings) and tuskfishes (increased landings). How this relates to the relative abundance and population biology of these taxa on the Great Barrier Reef requires attention. Spearfishers can provide important information regarding the status of their fishery through direct observations, which can inform legislation when acknowledged.

Superadditive and subadditive dynamics are not inherent to the types of interacting threat

Species and ecosystems usually face more than one threat. The damage caused by these multiple threats can accumulate nonlinearly: either subadditively, when the joint damage of combined threats is less than the damages of both threats individually added together, or superadditively, when the joint damage is greater than the two individual damages added together. These additivity dynamics are commonly attributed to the nature of the threatening processes, but conflicting empirical observations challenge this assumption. Here, we use a theoretical model to demonstrate that the additivity of threats can change with different magnitudes of threat impacts (effect of a threat on the population parameter, like growth rate). We use a harvested single-species population model to integrate the effects of multiple threats on equilibrium abundance. Our results reveal that threats do not always display consistent additive behavior, even in simple systems. Instead, their additivity depends on the magnitudes of the impacts of two threats, and the population parameter that is impacted by each threat. In our model specifically, when multiple threats have a low impact on the growth rate of a population, they display superadditive dynamics. In contrast, threats that impact the species' carrying capacity are always additive or subadditive. These dynamics can be understood by reference to the curvature of the relationship between a given population parameter (e.g., growth) and equilibrium population size. Our results suggest that management actions can achieve amplified benefits if they target low-amplitude threats that affect the growth rate, since these will be in a superadditive phase. More generally, our results suggest that cumulative impact theory should focus more than previously on the magnitude of the impact on the population parameter, and should be cautious about attributing additive dynamics to particular threat combinations.

Place-based management can reduce human impacts on coral reefs in a changing climate

Declining natural resources have contributed to a cultural renaissance across the Pacific that seeks to revive customary ridge-to-reef management approaches to protect freshwater and restore abundant coral reef fisheries. We applied a linked land-sea modeling framework based on remote sensing and empirical data, which couples groundwater nutrient export and coral reef models at fine spatial resolution. This spatially explicit (60 × 60 m) framework simultaneously tracks changes in multiple benthic and fish indicators as a function of community-led marine closures, land-use and climate change scenarios. We applied this framework in Hā'ena and Ka'ūpūlehu, located at opposite ends of the Hawaiian Archipelago to investigate the effects of coastal development and marine closures on coral reefs in the face of climate change. Our results indicated that projected coastal development and bleaching can result in a significant decrease in benthic habitat quality and community-led marine closures can result in a significant increase in fish biomass. In general, Ka'ūpūlehu is more vulnerable to land-based nutrients and coral bleaching than Hā'ena due to high coral cover and limited dilution and mixing from low rainfall and wave power, except for the shallow and wave-sheltered back-reef areas of Hā'ena, which support high coral cover and act as nursery habitat for fishes. By coupling spatially explicit land-sea models with scenario planning, we identified priority areas on land where upgrading cesspools can reduce human impacts on coral reefs in the face of projected climate change impacts.

Managing Local Stressors for Coral Reef Condition and Ecosystem Services Delivery Under Climate Scenarios

Coral reefs provide numerous ecosystem goods and services, but are threatened by multiple environmental and anthropogenic stressors. To identify management scenarios that will reverse or mitigate ecosystem degradation, managers can benefit from tools that can quantify projected changes in ecosystem services due to alternative management options. We used a spatially-explicit biophysical ecosystem model to evaluate socio-ecological trade-offs of land-based vs. marine-based management scenarios, and local-scale vs. global-scale stressors and their cumulative impacts. To increase the relevance of understanding ecological change for the public and decision-makers, we used four ecological production functions to translate the model outputs into the ecosystem services: "State of the Reef," "Trophic Integrity," "Fisheries Production," and "Fisheries Landings." For a case study of Maui Nui, Hawai'i, land-based management attenuated coral cover decline whereas fisheries management promoted higher total fish biomass. Placement of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) across 30% of coral reef areas led to a reversal of the historical decline in predatory fish biomass, although this outcome depended on the spatial arrangement of MPAs. Coral cover declined less severely under strict sediment mitigation scenarios. However, the benefits of these local management scenarios were largely lost when accounting for climate-related impacts. Climate-related stressors indirectly increased herbivore biomass due to the shift from corals to algae and, hence, greater food availability. The two ecosystem services related to fish biomass increased under climate-related stressors but "Trophic Integrity" of the reef declined, indicating a less resilient reef. "State of the Reef" improved most and "Trophic Integrity" declined least under an optimistic global warming scenario and strict local management. This work provides insight into the relative influence of land-based vs. marine-based management and local vs. global stressors as drivers of changes in ecosystem dynamics while quantifying the tradeoffs between conservation- and extraction-oriented ecosystem services.

Scenario planning with linked land-sea models inform where forest conservation actions will promote coral reef resilience

We developed a linked land-sea modeling framework based on remote sensing and empirical data, which couples sediment export and coral reef models at fine spatial resolution. This spatially-explicit (60 × 60 m) framework simultaneously tracks changes in multiple benthic and fish indicators as a function of land-use and climate change scenarios. We applied this framework in Kubulau District, Fiji, to investigate the effects of logging, agriculture expansion, and restoration on coral reef resilience. Under the deforestation scenario, models projected a 4.5-fold sediment increase (>7,000 t. yr-1) coupled with a significant decrease in benthic habitat quality across 1,940 ha and a reef fish biomass loss of 60.6 t. Under the restoration scenario, models projected a small (<30 t. yr-1) decrease in exported sediments, resulting in a significant increase in benthic habitat quality across 577 ha and a fish biomass gain of 5.7 t. The decrease in benthic habitat quality and loss of fish biomass were greater when combining climate change and deforestation scenarios. We evaluated where land-use change and bleaching scenarios would impact sediment runoff and downstream coral reefs to identify priority areas on land, where conservation or restoration could promote coral reef resilience in the face of climate change.

Ecosystem-based management of coral reefs under climate change

Coral reefs provide food and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people as well as harbour some of the highest regions of biodiversity in the ocean. However, overexploitation, land-use change and other local anthropogenic threats to coral reefs have left many degraded. Additionally, coral reefs are faced with the dual emerging threats of ocean warming and acidification due to rising CO 2 emissions, with dire predictions that they will not survive the century. This review evaluates the impacts of climate change on coral reef organisms, communities and ecosystems, focusing on the interactions between climate change factors and local anthropogenic stressors. It then explores the shortcomings of existing management and the move towards ecosystem-based management and resilience thinking, before highlighting the need for climate change-ready marine protected areas (MPAs), reduction in local anthropogenic stressors, novel approaches such as human-assisted evolution and the importance of sustainable socialecological systems. It concludes that designation of climate change-ready MPAs, integrated with other management strategies involving stakeholders and participation at multiple scales such as marine spatial planning, will be required to maximise coral reef resilience under climate change. However, efforts to reduce carbon emissions are critical if the long-term efficacy of local management actions is to be maintained and coral reefs are to survive.

A linked land-sea modeling framework to inform ridge-to-reef management in high oceanic islands

Declining natural resources have led to a cultural renaissance across the Pacific that seeks to revive customary ridge-to-reef management approaches to protect freshwater and restore abundant coral reef fisheries. Effective ridge-to-reef management requires improved understanding of land-sea linkages and decision-support tools to simultaneously evaluate the effects of terrestrial and marine drivers on coral reefs, mediated by anthropogenic activities. Although a few applications have linked the effects of land cover to coral reefs, these are too coarse in resolution to inform watershed-scale management for Pacific Islands. To address this gap, we developed a novel linked land-sea modeling framework based on local data, which coupled groundwater and coral reef models at fine spatial resolution, to determine the effects of terrestrial drivers (groundwater and nutrients), mediated by human activities (land cover/use), and marine drivers (waves, geography, and habitat) on coral reefs. We applied this framework in two 'ridge-to-reef' systems (Hā'ena and Ka'ūpūlehu) subject to different natural disturbance regimes, located in the Hawaiian Archipelago. Our results indicated that coral reefs in Ka'ūpūlehu are coral-dominated with many grazers and scrapers due to low rainfall and wave power. While coral reefs in Hā'ena are dominated by crustose coralline algae with many grazers and less scrapers due to high rainfall and wave power. In general, Ka'ūpūlehu is more vulnerable to land-based nutrients and coral bleaching than Hā'ena due to high coral cover and limited dilution and mixing from low rainfall and wave power. However, the shallow and wave sheltered back-reef areas of Hā'ena, which support high coral cover and act as nursery habitat for fishes, are also vulnerable to land-based nutrients and coral bleaching. Anthropogenic sources of nutrients located upstream from these vulnerable areas are relevant locations for nutrient mitigation, such as cesspool upgrades. In this study, we located coral reefs vulnerable to land-based nutrients and linked them to priority areas to manage sources of human-derived nutrients, thereby demonstrating how this framework can inform place-based ridge-to-reef management.

Assessing land use, sedimentation, and water quality stressors as predictors of coral reef condition in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands

Coral reef condition on the south shore of St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, was assessed at various distances from Charlotte Amalie, the most densely populated city on the island. Human influence in the area includes industrial activity, wastewater discharge, cruise ship docks, and impervious surfaces throughout the watershed. Anthropogenic activity was characterized using a landscape development intensity (LDI) index, sedimentation threat (ST) estimates, and water quality (WQ) impairments in the near-coastal zone. Total three-dimensional coral cover, reef rugosity, and coral diversity had significant negative coefficients for LDI index, as did densities of dominant species Orbicella annularis, Orbicella franksi, Montastraea cavernosa, Orbicella faveolata, and Porites porites. However, overall stony coral colony density was not significantly correlated with stressors. Positive relationships between reef rugosity and ST, between coral diversity and ST, and between coral diversity and WQ were unexpected because these stressors are generally thought to negatively influence coral growth and health. Sponge density was greater with higher disturbance indicators (ST and WQ), consistent with reports of greater resistance by sponges to degraded water quality compared to stony corals. The highest FoRAM (Foraminifera in Reef Assessment and Monitoring) indices indicating good water quality were found offshore from the main island and outside the harbor. Negative associations between stony coral metrics and LDI index have been reported elsewhere in the Caribbean and highlight LDI index potential as a spatial tool to characterize land-based anthropogenic stressor gradients relevant to coral reefs. Fewer relationships were found with an integrated stressor index but with similar trends in response direction.

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity.

A coral-algal phase shift in Mesoamerica not driven by changes in herbivorous fish abundance

Coral-algal phase shifts in which coral cover declines to low levels and is replaced by algae have often been documented on coral reefs worldwide. This has motivated coral reef management responses that include restriction and regulation of fishing, e.g. herbivorous fish species. However, there is evidence that eutrophication and sedimentation can be at least as important as a reduction in herbivory in causing phase shifts. These threats arise from coastal development leading to increased nutrient and sediment loads, which stimulate algal growth and negatively impact corals respectively. Here, we first present results of a dynamic process-based model demonstrating that in addition to overharvesting of herbivorous fish, bottom-up processes have the potential to precipitate coral-algal phase shifts on Mesoamerican reefs. We then provide an empirical example that exemplifies this on coral reefs off Mahahual in Mexico, where a shift from coral to algal dominance occurred over 14 years, during which there was little change in herbivore biomass but considerable development of tourist infrastructure. Our results indicate that coastal development can compromise the resilience of coral reefs and that watershed and coastal zone management together with the maintenance of functional levels of fish herbivory are critical for the persistence of coral reefs in Mesoamerica.

Local Stressors, Resilience, and Shifting Baselines on Coral Reefs

Understanding how and why coral reefs have changed over the last twenty to thirty years is crucial for sustaining coral-reef resilience. We used a historical baseline from Kosrae, a typical small island in Micronesia, to examine changes in fish and coral assemblages since 1986. We found that natural gradients in the spatial distribution of fish and coral assemblages have become amplified, as island geography is now a stronger determinant of species abundance patterns, and habitat forming Acropora corals and large-bodied fishes that were once common on the leeward side of the island have become scarce. A proxy for fishing access best predicted the relative change in fish assemblage condition over time, and in turn, declining fish condition was the only factor correlated with declining coral condition, suggesting overfishing may have reduced ecosystem resilience. Additionally, a proxy for watershed pollution predicted modern coral assemblage condition, suggesting pollution is also reducing resilience in densely populated areas. Altogether, it appears that unsustainable fishing reduced ecosystem resilience, as fish composition has shifted to smaller species in lower trophic levels, driven by losses of large predators and herbivores. While prior literature and anecdotal reports indicate that major disturbance events have been rare in Kosrae, small localized disturbances coupled with reduced resilience may have slowly degraded reef condition through time. Improving coral-reef resilience in the face of climate change will therefore require improved understanding and management of growing artisanal fishing pressure and watershed pollution.

Making parks make a difference: poor alignment of policy, planning and management with protected-area impact, and ways forward

Policy and practice around protected areas are poorly aligned with the basic purpose of protection, which is to make a difference. The difference made by protected areas is their impact, defined in program evaluation as the outcomes arising from protection relative to the counterfactual of no protection or a different form of protection. Although impact evaluation of programs is well established in fields such as medicine, education and development aid, it is rare in nature conservation. We show that the present weak alignment with impact of policy targets and operational objectives for protected areas involves a great risk: targets and objectives can be achieved while making little difference to the conservation of biodiversity. We also review potential ways of increasing the difference made by protected areas, finding a poor evidence base for the use of planning and management ‘levers’ to better achieve impact. We propose a dual strategy for making protected areas more effective in their basic role of saving nature, outlining ways of developing targets and objectives focused on impact while also improving the evidence for effective planning and management.

Advancing Land-Sea Conservation Planning: Integrating Modelling of Catchments, Land-Use Change, and River Plumes to Prioritise Catchment Management and Protection

Human-induced changes to river loads of nutrients and sediments pose a significant threat to marine ecosystems. Ongoing land-use change can further increase these loads, and amplify the impacts of land-based threats on vulnerable marine ecosystems. Consequently, there is a need to assess these threats and prioritise actions to mitigate their impacts. A key question regarding prioritisation is whether actions in catchments to maintain coastal-marine water quality can be spatially congruent with actions for other management objectives, such as conserving terrestrial biodiversity. In selected catchments draining into the Gulf of California, Mexico, we employed Land Change Modeller to assess the vulnerability of areas with native vegetation to conversion into crops, pasture, and urban areas. We then used SedNet, a catchment modelling tool, to map the sources and estimate pollutant loads delivered to the Gulf by these catchments. Following these analyses, we used modelled river plumes to identify marine areas likely influenced by land-based pollutants. Finally, we prioritised areas for catchment management based on objectives for conservation of terrestrial biodiversity and objectives for water quality that recognised links between pollutant sources and affected marine areas. Our objectives for coastal-marine water quality were to reduce sediment and nutrient discharges from anthropic areas, and minimise future increases in coastal sedimentation and eutrophication. Our objectives for protection of terrestrial biodiversity covered species of vertebrates. We used Marxan, a conservation planning tool, to prioritise interventions and explore spatial differences in priorities for both objectives. Notable differences in the distributions of land values for terrestrial biodiversity and coastal-marine water quality indicated the likely need for trade-offs between catchment management objectives. However, there were priority areas that contributed to both sets of objectives. Our study demonstrates a practical approach to integrating models of catchments, land-use change, and river plumes with conservation planning software to inform prioritisation of catchment management.

Mosquito control pesticides and sea surface temperatures have differential effects on the survival and oxidative stress response of coral larvae

The declining health of coral reefs is intensifying worldwide at an alarming rate due to the combined effects of land-based sources of pollution and climate change. Despite the persistent use of mosquito control pesticides in populated coastal areas, studies examining the survival and physiological impacts of early life-history stages of non-targeted marine organisms are limited. In order to better understand the combined effects of mosquito pesticides and rising sea surface temperatures, we exposed larvae from the coral Porites astreoides to selected concentrations of two major mosquito pesticide ingredients, naled and permethrin, and seawater elevated +3.5 °C. Following 18-20 h of exposure, larvae exposed to naled concentrations of 2.96 µg L(-1) or greater had significantly reduced survivorship compared to controls. These effects were not detected in the presence of permethrin or elevated temperature. Furthermore, larval settlement, post-settlement survival and zooxanthellae density were not impacted by any treatment. To evaluate the sub-lethal stress response of larvae, several oxidative stress endpoints were utilized. Biomarker responses to pesticide exposure were variable and contingent upon pesticide type as well as the specific biomarker being employed. In some cases, such as with protein carbonylation and catalase gene expression, the effects of naled exposure and temperature were interactive. In other cases pesticide exposure failed to induce any sub-lethal stress response. Overall, these results demonstrate that P. astreoides larvae have a moderate degree of resistance against short-term exposure to ecologically relevant concentrations of pesticides even in the presence of elevated temperature. In addition, this work highlights the importance of considering the complexity and differential responses encountered when examining the impacts of combined stressors that occur on varying spatial scales.