Spatial and temporal pattern of Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Tanzania; 1930 to 2007

Advancements in Rift Valley fever vaccines: a historical overview and prospects for next generation candidates

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes and causes abortion storms, fetal malformations, and newborn animal deaths in livestock ruminants. In humans, RVF can manifest as hemorrhagic fever, encephalitis, or retinitis. Outbreaks of RVF have been occurring in Africa since the early 20th century and continue to pose a threat to both humans and animals in various regions such as Africa, Madagascar, the Comoros, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. The development of RVF vaccines is crucial in preventing mortality and morbidity and reducing the spread of the virus. While several veterinary vaccines have been licensed in endemic countries, there are currently no licensed RVF vaccines for human use. This review provides an overview of the existing RVF vaccines, as well as potential candidates for future studies on RVF vaccine development, including next-generation vaccines that show promise in combating the disease in both humans and animals.

Contemporary epidemiological data of Rift Valley fever virus in humans, mosquitoes and other animal species in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a severe zoonotic mosquito-borne disease that represents an important threat to human and animal health, with major public health and socioeconomic impacts. This disease is endemic throughout many African countries and the Arabian Peninsula. This systematic review with meta-analysis was conducted to determine the RVF prevalence in humans, mosquitoes and other animal species in Africa. The review also provides contemporary data on RVF case fatality rate (CFR) in humans. In this systematic review with meta-analysis, a comprehensive literature search was conducted on the PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Global Index Medicus databases from January 2000 to June 2022 to identify relevant studies. Pooled CFR and prevalence estimates were calculated using the random-effects model. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis were performed, and the I2 -statistic was used to investigate a potential source of heterogeneity. A total of 205 articles were included in the final analysis. The overall RVF CFR in humans was found to be 27.5% [95% CI = 8.0-52.5]. The overall pooled prevalence was 7.8% [95% CI = 6.2-9.6] in humans and 9.3% [95% CI = 8.1-10.6] in animals, respectively. The RVF prevalence in individual mosquitoes ranged from 0.0% to 25%. Subgroup analysis showed substantial heterogeneity with respect to geographical regions and human categories. The study shows that there is a correspondingly similar prevalence of RVF in human and animals; however, human CFR is much higher than the observed prevalence. The lack of a surveillance programme and the fact that this virus has subclinical circulation in animals and humans could explain these observations. The implementation of a One Health approach for RVF surveillance and control would be of great interest for human and animal health.

Pillars for successful operationalization of one health as an ecosystem approach: experience from a human-animal interface in the Maasai steppe in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Solving complex public health challenges requires integrated approaches to health, such as One Health. A key element of the One Health approach is the interrelationship between human, animal and environmental health and the associated multistakeholder collaboration across many cultural, disciplinary, institutional and sectoral boundaries. Here we describe a pragmatic approach for One Health operationalisation basing on our long-term engagement with communities faced with health challenges in a human-livestock-wildlife interface in the Maasai steppe in northern Tanzania.

METHODS

Using a qualitative study design we performed an outcome mapping to document insights on results integration from our previous project. Data were collected through participatory community meetings, in-depth interviews and field observations. Field notes were coded and analysed using inductive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

We found that effective implementation of One Health interventions in complex ecosystems works best by understanding local conditions and their context and by working closely with the local people and relevant disciplinary players as one complex adaptive system. Community engagement, systems analysis, transdisciplinarity as well as political commitment played critical roles in successful operationalization of One Health. We have further emphasized that project ownership is as important to the local community as it is to the researchers. When used in combination, these elements (community engagement, systems analysis, transdisciplinarity) provide essential pillars for co-creation and maintaining collective action to set a common vision across disciplines, serving as inputs for a metrics-based toolbox for One Health operationalisation.

CONCLUSION

Considering the novelty and complexity of One Health operationalisation, there is need also to develop scorecard-based guidance for assessment of One Health programs at local and national level. This paper proposes a framework for the optimization of an ecosystems-based One Health approach for prevention and control of Vector-Borne Diseases implemented at the local, sub-national or national level.

Knowledge, attitudes and practices on rift valley fever among pastoral and agropastoral communities of Ngorongoro in the rift valley ecosystem, Tanzania, conducted in 2021/2022

Epidemics of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease caused by RVF virus, have been linked to exceptionally heavy rainfall and widespread flooding. The disease is endemic in most African countries and pose a major global health risk. Given that the disease was reported in various districts of Tanzania, we hypothesized a lack of knowledge about RVF epidemiology among agropastoral and pastoral communities. The research took place in a period of 7 months, from July, 2021 to January, 2022. The aim of this study was to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) among the agropastoral and pastoral communities of Ngorongoro district towards RVF. The survey employed a mixed method system, which included 3 focus groups (each comprised 12 individuals), 20 key informant interviews and administration of questionnaire (N = 352) in agropastoral and pastoral community members of Ngorongoro district. The relationship between demographic characteristics and communities' knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding RVF was observed using a multiple logistic regression model. A total of 352 participants were interviewed, with the majority (67.61%) being male and 32.39% being female, majority (39.5%) attending primary school, and majority (58.2%) being pastoralists. The findings showed that only 36.1%, 38.64% and 16.19% of participants had good knowledge, positive attitude and good practices regarding RVF respectively. Significant demographic factors related with knowledge included: gender (OR = 1.9, CI = 1.03-3.56, P = 0.041), education levels (primary: OR = 3.97, CI = 2-8.16, P = 0.000; secondary: OR = 15.27, CI = 5.5-46.23, P = 0.000 and college: OR = 34. 23, CI = 5.4-67.22, P = 0.000), and locality (Pinyinyi: OR = 0.14, CI = 0.05-0.38, P = 0.000 and Sale: OR = 0.14, CI = 0.04-0.44, P = 0.001). Male participants showed significant positive attitude towards RVF compared to female (OR = 2.37, CI = 1.35-4.17, P = 0.003). Individuals with formal education showed a significant positive attitude toward RVF compared to informal (OR>1, P<0.05). Agropastoral members showed a significant negative attitude toward RVF compared to pastoralists (OR = 0.51, CI = 0.26-0.99, P = 0.048). The calculated RVF prevention practices values were insignificantly (P = 0.853) correlated with knowledge values. The significant correlation between knowledge and attitude, as well as attitude and practice were found (P<0.05). In general, the study revealed poor knowledge, negative attitude and poor practices of communities towards RVF. The lack of regular education programs to make the communities aware of the disease was implicated for these findings. This recommends that provision of health education should be a long-term practice among agropastoral and pastoral communities in order to prevent further RVF outbreaks in Tanzania.

Community knowledge, attitude and practices regarding zoonotic viral haemorrhagic fevers in five geo-ecological zones in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Viral haemorrhagic fevers (VHF) cause significant economic and public health impact in Sub-Saharan Africa. Community knowledge, awareness and practices regarding such outbreaks play a pivotal role in their management and prevention. This study was carried out to assess community knowledge, attitude and practices regarding VHF in five geo-ecological zones in Tanzania.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted in Buhigwe, Kalambo, Kyela, Kinondoni, Kilindi, Mvomero, Kondoa and Ukerewe districts representing five geo-ecological zones in Tanzania. Study participants were selected by multistage cluster sampling design. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect socio-demographic and information related to knowledge, attitude and practices regarding VHFs. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were used for the analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 2,965 individuals were involved in the study. Their mean age was 35 (SD ± 18.9) years. Females accounted for 58.2% while males 41.8%. Most of the respondents (70.6%; n = 2093) had never heard of VHF, and those who heard, over three quarters (79%) mentioned the radio as their primary source of information. Slightly over a quarter (29.4%) of the respondents were knowledgeable, 25% had a positive attitude, and 17.9% had unfavourable practice habits. The level of knowledge varied between occupation and education levels (P < 0.005). Most participants were likely to interact with a VHF survivor or take care of a person suffering from VHF (75%) or visit areas with known VHF (73%). There were increased odds of having poor practice among participants aged 36-45 years (AOR: 3.566, 95% CI: 1.593-7.821) and those living in Western, North-Eastern and Lake Victoria zones (AOR: 2.529, 95% CI: 1.071-6.657; AOR: 2.639, 95% CI: 1.130-7.580 AOR: 2.248, 95% CI: 1.073-3.844, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Overall, the knowledge on VHF among communities is low, while a large proportion of individuals in the community are involved in activities that expose them to the disease pathogens in Tanzania. These findings highlight the need for strengthening health educational and promotion efforts on VHF targeting specific populations.

An outbreak of Rift Valley fever among peri-urban dairy cattle in northern Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Human and animal cases of Rift Valley fever (RVF) are typically only reported during large outbreaks. The occurrence of RVF cases that go undetected by national surveillance systems in the period between these outbreaks is considered likely. The last reported cases of RVF in Tanzania occurred during a large outbreak in 2007-2008.

METHODS

Samples collected between 2017 and 2019 from livestock suffering abortion across northern Tanzania were retrospectively tested for evidence of RVF virus infection using serology and reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR).

RESULTS

A total of 14 RVF-associated cattle abortions were identified among dairy cattle in a peri-urban area surrounding the town of Moshi. RVF cases occurred from May to August 2018 and were considered to represent an undetected, small-scale RVF outbreak. Milk samples from 3 of 14 cases (21%) were found to be RT-qPCR positive. Genotyping revealed circulation of RVF viruses from two distinct lineages.

CONCLUSIONS

RVF outbreaks can occur more often in endemic settings than would be expected on the basis of detection by national surveillance. The occurrence of RVF cases among peri-urban dairy cattle and evidence for viral shedding in milk, also highlights potentially emerging risks for RVF associated with increasing urban and peri-urban livestock populations.

Inter-epidemic Rift Valley fever virus infection incidence and risks for zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that has caused epidemics involving people and animals across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. A number of studies have found evidence for the circulation of RVFV among livestock between these epidemics but the population-level incidence of infection during this inter-epidemic period (IEP) is rarely reported. General force of infection (FOI) models were applied to age-adjusted cross-sectional serological data to reconstruct the annual FOI and population-level incidence of RVFV infection among cattle, goats, and sheep in northern Tanzania from 2009 through 2015, a period without reported Rift Valley fever (RVF) cases in people or animals. To evaluate the potential for zoonotic RVFV spillover during this period, the relationship between village-level livestock RVFV FOI and human RVFV seropositivity was quantified using multi-level logistic regression. The predicted average annual incidence was 72 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 63, 81) RVFV infections per 10,000 animals and 96 (95% CrI 81, 113), 79 (95% CrI 62, 98), and 39 (95% CrI 28, 52) per 10,000 cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. There was variation in transmission intensity between study villages, with the highest estimated village-level FOI 2.49% (95% CrI 1.89, 3.23) and the lowest 0.12% (95% CrI 0.02, 0.43). The human RVFV seroprevalence was 8.2% (95% Confidence Interval 6.2, 10.9). Human seropositivity was strongly associated with the village-level FOI in livestock, with the odds of seropositivity in an individual person increasing by around 1.2 times (95% CrI 1.1, 1.3) for each additional annual RVFV seroconversion per 1,000 animals. A history of raw milk consumption was also positively associated with human seropositivity. RVFV has circulated at apparently low levels among livestock in northern Tanzania in the period since the last reported epidemic. Although our data do not allow us to confirm human RVFV infections during the IEP, a strong association between human seropositivity and the FOI in cattle, goats, and sheep supports the hypothesis that RVFV circulation among livestock during the IEP poses a risk for undetected zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania. We provide further evidence for the likely role of raw milk consumption in RVFV transmission from animals to people.

Diversity, composition, altitude, and seasonality of high-altitude windborne migrating mosquitoes in the Sahel: Implications for disease transmission

Recent studies have reported Anopheles mosquitoes captured at high-altitude (40-290 m above ground) in the Sahel. Here, we describe this migration modality across genera and species of African Culicidae and examine its implications for disease transmission and control. As well as Anopheles, six other genera-Culex, Aedes, Mansonia, Mimomyia, Lutzia, and Eretmapodites comprised 90% of the 2,340 mosquitoes captured at altitude. Of the 50 molecularly confirmed species (N = 2,107), 33 species represented by multiple specimens were conservatively considered high-altitude windborne migrants, suggesting it is a common migration modality in mosquitoes (31-47% of the known species in Mali), and especially in Culex (45-59%). Overall species abundance varied between 2 and 710 specimens/species (in Ae. vittatus and Cx. perexiguus, respectively). At altitude, females outnumbered males 6:1, and 93% of the females have taken at least one blood meal on a vertebrate host prior to their departure. Most taxa were more common at higher sampling altitudes, indicating that total abundance and diversity are underestimated. High-altitude flight activity was concentrated between June and November coinciding with availability of surface waters and peak disease transmission by mosquitoes. These hallmarks of windborne mosquito migration bolster their role as carriers of mosquito-borne pathogens (MBPs). Screening 921 mosquitoes using pan-Plasmodium assays revealed that thoracic infection rate in these high-altitude migrants was 2.4%, providing a proof of concept that vertebrate pathogens are transported by windborne mosquitoes at altitude. Fourteen of the 33 windborne mosquito species had been reported as vectors to 25 MBPs in West Africa, which represent 32% of the MBPs known in that region and include those that inflict the heaviest burden on human and animal health, such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue, and Rift Valley fever. We highlight five arboviruses that are most likely affected by windborne mosquitoes in West Africa: Rift Valley fever, O'nyong'nyong, Ngari, Pangola, and Ndumu. We conclude that the study of windborne spread of diseases by migrating insects and the development of surveillance to map the sources, routes, and destinations of vectors and pathogens is key to understand, predict, and mitigate existing and new threats of public health.

Rift Valley fever seropositivity in humans and domestic ruminants and associated risk factors in Sengerema, Ilala, and Rufiji districts, Tanzania

OBJECTIVES

Data on Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) prevalence in urban settings and pastoral areas of Tanzania are scarce. We performed a cross-sectional study of RVFV seroprevalence and determinants in humans and animals from Ilala, Rufiji, and Sengerema districts of Tanzania.

METHODS

Blood samples from the study participants were tested for anti-RVFV immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Logistic regression was used to determine association between exposure risk practices and RVFV seropositivity.

RESULTS

The study involved 664 humans, 361 cattle, 394 goats, and 242 sheep. The overall anti-RVFV IgG seroprevalence in humans and animals was 2.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.01-0.04) and 9.5% (n = 95, 95% CI 0.08-0.12), respectively. Seroprevalence in humans in Rufiji, Ilala, and Sengerema was 3.0% (n = 225, 95% CI 0.01-0.06), 1.8% (n = 230, 95% CI-0.005- 0.04), and 1.4% (n = 209, 95% CI 0.01-0.04), respectively (P >0.05). Seroprevalence in animals in Sengerema, Rufiji, and Ilala was 12.1% (n = 40, 95% CI 0.09-0.16), 11.1% (n = 37, 95% CI 0.08-0.15), and 5.4% (n = 18, 95% CI 0.03-0.08), respectively (P = 0.006). Handling of carcasses increased the odds of RVFV seropositivity 12-fold (odds ratio 11.84, 95% CI 1.97-71.16).

CONCLUSION

The study confirms previous occurrence of RVFV in multiple species in the study districts. Animal handling practices appear to be essential determinants of seropositivity.

A Cross-Sectional, Population-Based, Seroepidemiological Study of Rift Valley Fever in Cameroonian Cattle Populations

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an important emerging zoonoses causing abortion and neonatal deaths in livestock and hemorrhagic fever in humans. It is typically characterized by acute epidemics with abortion storms often preceding human disease and these events have been associated with the El Niño weather cycles. Outside of areas that experience epidemics, little is known about its epidemiology. Here, we present results from a serological study using biobank samples from a study of cattle conducted in 2013 at two sites in Cameroon. A total of 1,458 cattle from 100 herds were bled and sera screened using a commercially available RVF ELISA. The overall design-adjusted animal-level apparent seroprevalence of RVF exposure for the Northwest Region (NWR) of Cameroon was 6.5% (95% CI: 3.9–11.0) and for the Vina Division (VIN) of the Adamawa Region was 8.2% (95% CI: 6.2–11.0). The age-stratified serological results were also used to estimate the force of infection, and the age-independent estimates were 0.029 for the VIN and 0.024 for the NWR. The effective reproductive number was ~1.08. Increasing age and contact with wild antelope species were associated with an increased risk of seropositivity, while high altitudes and contact with buffalo were associated with a reduced risk of seropositivity. The serological patterns are more consistent with an endemical stability rather than the more typical epidemic patterns seen in East Africa. However, there is little surveillance in livestock for abortion storms or in humans with fevers in Cameroon, and it is, therefore, difficult to interpret these observations. There is an urgent need for an integrated One Health approach to understand the levels of human- and livestock-related clinical and asymptomatic disease and whether there is a need to implement interventions such as vaccination.

Viral haemorrhagic fevers and malaria co-infections among febrile patients seeking health care in Tanzania

Background

In recent years there have been reports of viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF) epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa where malaria is endemic. VHF and malaria have overlapping clinical presentations making differential diagnosis a challenge. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of selected zoonotic VHFs and malaria co-infections among febrile patients seeking health care in Tanzania.

Methods

This facility-based cross-sectional study was carried out between June and November 2018 in Buhigwe, Kalambo, Kyela, Kilindi, Kinondoni, Kondoa, Mvomero, and Ukerewe districts in Tanzania. The study involved febrile patients seeking health care from primary healthcare facilities. Blood samples were collected and tested for infections due to malaria, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF), Ebola virus disease (EVD), Marburg virus disease (MVD), Rift Valley fever (RVF) and yellow fever (YF). Malaria infections were tested using rapid diagnostics tests while exposure to VHFs was determined by screening for immunoglobulin M antibodies using commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. The Chi-square test was used to compare the proportions.

Results

A total of 308 participants (mean age = 35 ± 19 years) were involved in the study. Of these, 54 (17.5%) had malaria infection and 15 (4.8%) were positive for IgM antibodies against VHFs (RVF = 8; CCHF = 2; EBV = 3; MBV = 1; YF = 1). Six (1.9%) individuals had both VHF (RVF = 2; CCHF = 1; EVD = 2; MVD = 1) and malaria infections. The highest co-infection prevalence (0.6%) was observed among individuals aged 46‒60 years (P < 0.05). District was significantly associated with co-infection (P < 0.05) with the highest prevalence recorded in Buhigwe (1.2%) followed by Kinondoni (0.9%) districts. Headache (100%) and muscle, bone, back and joint pains (83.3%) were the most significant complaints among those infected with both VHFs and malaria (P = 0.001).

Conclusions

Co-infections of VHF and malaria are prevalent in Tanzania and affect more the older than the younger population. Since the overlapping symptoms in co-infected individuals may challenge accurate diagnosis, adequate laboratory diagnosis should be emphasized in the management of febrile illnesses.

Crossing the Line: Seroprevalence and Risk Factors for Transboundary Animal Diseases Along the Tanzania-Zambia Border

Transboundary pathogens pose a threat to livelihood security in countries such as Zambia and Tanzania. This study aimed to investigate the seroprevalence of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV), foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV), sheep and goat pox virus (SGPV), Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) and Brucella spp. in sheep and goats along the Tanzania-Zambia border. Another aim was to assess the association between certain predictor variables and seroprevalence, focusing on trade and proximity to an international border, to a town and to the Tanzania-Zambia highway. During September-October 2018, 486 serum samples from small ruminants in Zambia and 491 in Tanzania were collected and analyzed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). A questionnaire focused on management strategies was administered to each household. The animal-level seroprevalence in Zambia was 0.21% [95% confidence interval (CI) (0.01–1.14) for PPRV, 1.03% (95% CI 0.33–2.39) for FMDV, 0% (95% CI 0–0.76) for SGPV, 2.26% (95% CI 1.14–4.01) for RVFV and 1.65% (95% CI 0.71–3.22) for Brucella spp.]. In Tanzania, animal-level seroprevalence was 2.85% (95% CI 1.57–4.74) for PPRV, 16.9% (95% CI 13.7–20.5) for FMDV, 0.20% (95% CI 0.01–1.13) for SGPV, 3.26% (95% CI 1.87–5.24) for RVFV and 20.0% (95% CI 14.5–26.5) for Brucella spp. For PPRV (OR 6.83, 95% CI 1.37–34.0, p = 0.019) and FMDV (OR 5.68, 95% CI 1.58–20.3, p = 0.008), herds situated more than 30 km from an international border were more likely to be seropositive, while being located 10–30 km (OR 4.43, 95% CI 1.22–16.1 p = 0.024) from a border was identified as a risk factor for Brucella spp. For FMDV (OR 79.2, 95% CI 4.52–1388.9, p = 0.003), being situated within 30 km from a town was associated with seropositivity. Furthermore, contact with wild ruminants (OR 18.2, 95% CI 1.36–244), and the presence of sheep in the household (OR 5.20, 95% CI 1.00–26.9, p = 0.049), was associated with seropositivity for PPRV, and FMDV. No significant associations between trade or distance to the Tan-Zam highway and seroprevalence were found. We recommend that the impact of trade and proximity to borders, towns and roads should be further evaluated in larger studies, ideally incorporating aspects such as temporal trade fluctuations.

Safety, Immunogenicity and Antibody Persistence of Rift Valley Fever Virus Clone 13 Vaccine in Sheep, Goats and Cattle in Tanzania

Background: Vaccination is considered to be the best approach to control Rift Valley fever (RVF) in animals and consequently in humans. This study assessed the efficacy and safety of the RVF virus (RVFV) Clone 13 vaccine under field conditions.

Methodology: A vaccine trial was conducted in sheep (230), goats (230), and cattle (140) in Ngorongoro district, Tanzania. Half of each of the animal species were vaccinated and the other half received the placebo. Animals were clinically monitored and bled before vaccination and at days 15, 30, 60, 180 and 360 (+/– 10) post-vaccination to measure Immunoglobulin M (IgM) and IgG antibody responses to RVFV. Survival analysis was conducted using cox-proportional hazard regression model to measure the time until an event of interest had occurred and to compare the cumulative proportion of events over time.

Results: Of 600 animals included in the study, 120 animals were lost during the study, leaving a total of 480 (243 in the vaccinated group and 237 in the control group) for complete follow-up sampling. There was no adverse reaction reported at the injection site of the vaccine/placebo in all animals. Abortions, deaths, or body temperature variations were not associated with vaccination (p > 0.05). By day 15 post-inoculation, the IgG seroconversion in vaccinated goats, cattle and sheep was 27.0% (n = 115), 20.0% (n = 70) and 10.4% (n = 115), respectively. By day 30 post-inoculation, it was 75.0% (n = 113), 74.1% (n = 112) and 57.1% (n = 70) in vaccinated sheep, goats and cattle, respectively. By day 60 post-inoculation, IgG seroconversion in sheep, goats and cattle was 88.1% (n = 109), 84.3% (n = 108) and 64.60% (n = 65), respectively. By day 180, the IgG seroconversion in sheep, goats and cattle was 88.0% (n = 108), 83.8% (n = 105) and 66.1% (n = 62), respectively. By day 360, the IgG seroconversion in sheep, goats and cattle was 87.2% (n = 94), 85.6% (n = 90) and 66.1% (n = 59), respectively. Only five animals from the vaccinated group were RVFV IgM positive, which included four sheep and a goat.

Conclusion: RVFV Clone 13 vaccine was well tolerated by sheep, goats, and cattle. The vaccine induced detectable, but variable levels of IgG responses, and of different duration. The vaccine is considered safe, with high immunogenicity in sheep and goats and moderate in cattle.

Paving the way for human vaccination against Rift Valley fever virus: A systematic literature review of RVFV epidemiology from 1999 to 2021

BACKGROUND

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a lethal threat to humans and livestock in many parts of Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indian Ocean. This systematic review's objective was to consolidate understanding of RVFV epidemiology during 1999-2021 and highlight knowledge gaps relevant to plans for human vaccine trials.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020221622). Reports of RVFV infection or exposure among humans, animals, and/or vectors in Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indian Ocean during the period January 1999 to June 2021 were eligible for inclusion. Online databases were searched for publications, and supplemental materials were recovered from official reports and research colleagues. Exposures were classified into five groups: 1) acute human RVF cases, 2) acute animal cases, 3) human RVFV sero-surveys, 4) animal sero-surveys, and 5) arthropod infections. Human risk factors, circulating RVFV lineages, and surveillance methods were also tabulated. In meta-analysis of risks, summary odds ratios were computed using random-effects modeling. 1104 unique human or animal RVFV transmission events were reported in 39 countries during 1999-2021. Outbreaks among humans or animals occurred at rates of 5.8/year and 12.4/year, respectively, with Mauritania, Madagascar, Kenya, South Africa, and Sudan having the most human outbreak years. Men had greater odds of RVFV infection than women, and animal contact, butchering, milking, and handling aborted material were significantly associated with greater odds of exposure. Animal infection risk was linked to location, proximity to water, and exposure to other herds or wildlife. RVFV was detected in a variety of mosquito vectors during interepidemic periods, confirming ongoing transmission.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

With broad variability in surveillance, case finding, survey design, and RVFV case confirmation, combined with uncertainty about populations-at-risk, there were inconsistent results from location to location. However, it was evident that RVFV transmission is expanding its range and frequency. Gaps assessment indicated the need to harmonize human and animal surveillance and improve diagnostics and genotyping. Given the frequency of RVFV outbreaks, human vaccination has strong potential to mitigate the impact of this now widely endemic disease.

Rift valley fever in Africa with the emerging interest in Libya

Rift valley fever (RVF) is an acute vector-borne viral zoonotic disease of domestic and wild ruminants. The RVF virus (RVFV) belonging to the Phlebovirus genus of the Bunyaviridae family causes this disease. Studies have shown that mosquitoes are the vectors that transmit RVFV. Specifically, Aedes and Culex mosquito species are among the many vectors of this virus, which affects not only sheep, goats, buffalo, cattle, and camels but also human beings. Since the 30s of the last century, RVF struck Africa, and to a lesser extent, Asian continents, with subsequent episodes of epizootic, epidemic, and sporadic outbreaks. These outbreaks, therefore, resulted in the cumulative loss of thousands of human lives, thereby disrupting the livestock market or only those with seropositive cases. After that outbreak episode, RVF was not reported in Libya until January 13, 2020, where it was reported for the 1st time in a flock of sheep and goats in the southern region of the country. Although insufficient evidence to support RVF clinical cases among the confirmed seropositive animals exists, neither human cases nor death were reported in Libya. Yet, the overtime expansion of RVF kinetics in the Libyan neighborhoods, in addition to the instability and security vacuum experienced in the country, lack of outbreak preparedness, and the availability of suitable climatic and disease vector factors, makes this country a possible future scene candidate for RVF expansion. Urgently, strengthening veterinary services (VS) and laboratory diagnostic capacities, including improvement of monitoring and surveillance activity programs, should be implemented in areas at risk (where imported animals crossing borders from Libyan neighborhoods and competent vectors are found) at national, sub-national, and regional levels. The Libyan government should also implement a tripartite framework (one health approach) among the veterinary public health, public health authority, and environmental sanitation sectors to implement RVF surveillance protocols, along with an active partnership with competent international bodies (OIE, FAO, and WHO). Therefore, this review comprises the most updated data regarding the epidemiological situation of RVF infections and its socioeconomic impacts on African and Asian continents, and also emphasize the emerging interest of RVF in Libya.

Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape

The persistence mechanisms of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic arboviral haemorrhagic fever, at both local and broader geographical scales have yet to be fully understood and rigorously quantified. We developed a mathematical metapopulation model describing RVF virus transmission in livestock across the four islands of the Comoros archipelago, accounting for island-specific environments and inter-island animal movements. By fitting our model in a Bayesian framework to 2004-2015 surveillance data, we estimated the importance of environmental drivers and animal movements on disease persistence, and tested the impact of different control scenarios on reducing disease burden throughout the archipelago. Here we report that (i) the archipelago network was able to sustain viral transmission in the absence of explicit disease introduction events after early 2007, (ii) repeated outbreaks during 2004-2020 may have gone under-detected by local surveillance, and (iii) co-ordinated within-island control measures are more effective than between-island animal movement restrictions.

Socio-Ecological Systems Analysis and Health System Readiness in Responding to Dengue Epidemics in Ilala and Kinondoni Districts, Tanzania

Introduction

Since 2010, Tanzania has been experiencing frequent outbreaks of dengue. The objectives of this study were to carry out a socio-ecological systems (SES) analysis to identify risk factors and interventions and assess the readiness of the district in the prevention and control of dengue.

Methods

The study utilized a cross-sectional purposive selection of key stakeholders responsible for disease surveillance and response in human and animal sectors in Ilala and Kinondoni districts in Tanzania. A SES framework was used to identify drivers and construct perceived thematic causal explanations of the dengue outbreaks in the study districts. A mapping exercise was carried out to analyse the performance of the disease surveillance system at district and facility levels. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to assess the districts’ readiness in the response to dengue outbreak.

Results

The two districts were characterized by both urban and peri-urban ecosystems, with a mixture of planned and unplanned settlements which support breeding and proliferation of Aedes mosquitoes. The results indicate inadequate levels of readiness in the management and control of dengue outbreaks, in terms of clinical competence, diagnostic capacities, surveillance system and control/prevention measures. Mosquito breeding sites, especially discarded automobile tyres, were reported to be scattered in the districts. Constraining factors in implementing disease surveillance included both intrapersonal and interpersonal factors, lack of case management guidelines, difficult language used in standard case definitions, inadequate laboratory capacity, lack of appropriate rapid response teams, inadequate knowledge on outbreak investigation and inadequate capacities in data management.

Conclusion

The two districts had limited readiness in the management and control of dengue, in terms of clinical competence, diagnostic capacities, surveillance system and prevention and control measures. These challenges require the immediate attention by the authorities, as they compromise the effectiveness of the national strategy for community health support.

Emerging epidemics: is the Zanzibar healthcare system ready to detect and respond to mosquito-borne viral diseases?

Background

Effective control of emerging mosquito-borne viral diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika requires, amongst other things, a functional healthcare system, ready and capable of timely detection and prompt response to incipient epidemics. We assessed the readiness of Zanzibar health facilities and districts for early detection and management of mosquito-borne viral disease outbreaks.

Methods

A cross-sectional study involving all 10 District Health Management Teams and 45 randomly selected public and private health facilities in Zanzibar was conducted using a mixed-methods approach including observations, document review, and structured interviews with health facility in-charges and District Health Management Team members.

Results

The readiness of the Zanzibar healthcare system for timely detection, management, and control of dengue and other mosquito-borne viral disease outbreaks was critically low. The majority of health facilities and districts lacked the necessary requirements including standard guidelines, trained staff, real-time data capture, analysis and reporting systems, as well as laboratory diagnostic capacity. In addition, health education programmes for creating public awareness and Aedes mosquito surveillance and control activities were non-existent.

Conclusions

The Zanzibar healthcare system has limited readiness for management, and control of mosquito-borne viral diseases. In light of impending epidemics, the critical shortage of skilled human resource, lack of guidelines, lack of effective disease and vector surveillance and control measures as well as lack of laboratory capacity at all levels of health facilities require urgent attention across the Zanzibar archipelago.

Seroprevalence and associated risk factors of selected zoonotic viral hemorrhagic fevers in Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

To determine the seroprevalence of selected zoonotic viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) and their associated risk factors in Tanzania.

METHODS

Blood samples were collected from consenting outpatients and community members in eight districts selected from five ecological zones of Tanzania. Serum was harvested and tested for the presence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) and M (IgM) antibodies against Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), Ebola virus disease (EVD), Marburg virus disease (MVD), Rift Valley fever (RVF), and yellow fever (YF).

RESULTS

The presence of IgM and IgG antibodies against CCHF, EVD, MVD, RVF, and YF was detected in 64 of 500 samples (12.8%). The prevalences of IgM and IgG antibodies to CCHF, EVD, MVD, RFV, and YF were 2.0%, 3.4%, 1.2%, 4.8%, and 1.4%, respectively. Contact with wild animals (OR = 1.2, CI = 1.3-1.6) and keeping goats (OR = 1.3, CI = 1.5-1.9) were significantly associated with RVF, while contact with bats (OR = 1.2, CI = 1.1-1.5) was associated with MVD.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study provide evidence of exposure to CCHF, EVD, MVD, RVF, and YF in Tanzania. Since most of these VHFs occurred without apparent clinical forms of the disease, these findings call for the need to strengthen the surveillance system and management of febrile illnesses in Tanzania.

Over 100 Years of Rift Valley Fever: A Patchwork of Data on Pathogen Spread and Spillover

During the past 100 years, Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), a mosquito-borne virus, has caused potentially lethal disease in livestock, and has been associated with significant economic losses and trade bans. Spillover to humans occurs and can be fatal. Here, we combined data on RVF disease in humans (22 countries) and animals (37 countries) from 1931 to 2020 with seroprevalence studies from 1950 to 2020 (n = 228) from publicly available databases and publications to draw a more complete picture of the past and current RVFV epidemiology. RVFV has spread from its original locus in Kenya throughout Africa and into the Arabian Peninsula. Throughout the study period seroprevalence increased in both humans and animals, suggesting potentially increased RVFV exposure. In 24 countries, animals or humans tested positive for RVFV antibodies even though outbreaks had never been reported there, suggesting RVFV transmission may well go unnoticed. Among ruminants, sheep were the most likely to be exposed during RVF outbreaks, but not during periods of cryptic spread. We discuss critical data gaps and highlight the need for detailed study descriptions, and long-term studies using a one health approach to further convert the patchwork of data to the tale of RFV epidemiology.

Community Health Workers and Disease Surveillance in Tanzania: Promoting the Use of Mobile Technologies in Detecting and Reporting Health Events

This cross-sectional study was conducted in the Kilosa, Morogoro Urban, Ngorongoro, and Ulanga districts of Tanzania to investigate the practices of community health workers (CHWs) related to disease surveillance functions and to establish their needs and technology capacities. We also established the strength of mobile phone networks and internet connections in the study areas to inform the feasibility of using mobile-based applications in community-based disease surveillance. A total of 135 CHWs from 85 villages participated in the study. Health events captured at the community level were entirely paper-based. CHWs submitted reports to higher-level health authorities mainly on foot (100%), but they also used public transport (65%) and telephone calls (56%). The median number of days between the onset of a suspected disease outbreak at the community level and reporting to a primary healthcare facility was 10 days (interquartile range [IQR] 2-30). The median number of days between submitting a report and receiving a response was 7 days (IQR 2-30). Of the 53 CHWs who reported the most recent health events to a higher-level health authority, 39 (74%) never received feedback. All 85 villages had a reliable mobile phone network and 74 (87%) had a mobile phone internet connection that was strong enough to support data transmission using digital technology. Almost all (n = 132, 98%) of the CHWs owned mobile phones. The practices related to detection and reporting of health events could be improved to enhance early warning disease surveillance. Reliable mobile networks and internet connections and the ownership of mobile phones among CHWs in the study areas present opportunities to strengthen community event-based surveillance using mobile-based solutions.

Informing Rift Valley Fever preparedness by mapping seasonally varying environmental suitability

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Database of Rift Valley Fever occurrences from 46 countries over 22 years.

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Predictions of Rift Valley Fever suitability for every month over 1995–2016.

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Identifies areas at-risk by synthesizing time-series of environmental predictions.

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We use human and livestock data to identify possible hotspots of disease spillover.

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We identify places where long-term and routine preparation efforts should be focused.

Background

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) poses a threat to human and animal health throughout much of Africa and the Middle East and has been recognized as a global health security priority and a key preparedness target.

Methods

We combined RVF occurrence data from a systematic literature review with animal notification data from an online database. Using boosted regression trees, we made monthly environmental suitability predictions from January 1995 to December 2016 at a 5 × 5-km resolution throughout regions of Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. We calculated the average number of months per year suitable for transmission, the mean suitability for each calendar month, and the “spillover potential,” a measure incorporating suitability with human and livestock populations.

Results

Several countries where cases have not yet been reported are suitable for RVF. Areas across the region of interest are suitable for transmission at different times of the year, and some areas are suitable for multiple seasons each year. Spillover potential results show areas within countries where high populations of humans and livestock are at risk for much of the year.

Conclusions

The widespread environmental suitability of RVF highlights the need for increased preparedness, even in countries that have not previously experienced cases. These maps can aid in prioritizing long-term RVF preparedness activities and determining optimal times for recurring preparedness activities. Given an outbreak, our results can highlight areas often at risk for subsequent transmission that month, enabling decision-makers to target responses effectively.

Seropositivity and associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors for Rift Valley fever virus occurrence in pastoral herds of Nigeria: a cross sectional survey

Background

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne emerging zoonotic disease of animals and humans, characterized by socioeconomic losses to livestock farmers and global public health threat. The study determined RVFV seroprevalence in cattle, assessed pastoralists’ knowledge about RVF, and factors that influence its occurrence in pastoral cattle herds of Nigeria. A cross-sectional study was conducted in pastoral herds of North-central Nigeria from 2017 to 2018. Data were collected using serology and questionnaire tools. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the obtained data. Categorical variables were presented as proportions and their associations determined by Chi-square tests. Associations of risk factors were analyzed by univariable and multivariable logistic regressions analyses at 95% confidence level.

Results

The overall IgM seropositivity of RVFV in pastoral cattle herds was 5.6%. This was higher in nomadic herds (7.4%) than in agro-pastoral herds (3.8%). All animal demographic characteristics of age, sex and breeds were not significantly (p > 0.05) associated with RVFV occurrence in pastoral herds. All the 403 pastoralists selected participated in the study, with the majorities of them being male, married and have no formal education. Majority of the pastoralists had low knowledge levels about zoonotic RVFV infection. All identified socio-ecological factors significantly (p < 0.05) influenced RVFV occurrence in herds. Mosquitoes availability in cattle environment (OR = 7.81; 95% CI: 4.85, 12.37), presence of rivers and streams at grazing fields (OR = 10.80; 95% CI: 6.77, 17.34), high rainfall (OR = 4.30; 95% CI: 2.74, 6.59), irrigated rice fields (OR = 5.14; 95% CI: 3.21, 7.79), bushy vegetation (OR = 6.11; 95% CI: 3.96, 9.43), animal movement (OR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.45, 3.25), and seasons (OR = 2.34; 95% CI: 1.55, 3.51) were more likely to influenced RVFV occurrence in cattle herds.

Conclusions

Results of this study had illustrated recent circulation of RVFV in pastoral cattle herds in Nigeria and needs urgent interventions. The surveyed pastoralists had low knowledge level about RVF while the socio-ecological factors significantly influenced RVFV occurrence in herds. To address these gaps, pastoralists should be educated on clinical manifestations and modes of transmission of the disease in animals and humans, and mitigation measures. Adequate knowledge about RVF epidemiology will assure food security and public health.

Risk assessment for the Rift Valley fever occurrence in China: Special concern in south-west border areas

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease. Since its first outbreak in 1930, RVF epidemics have caused huge economic losses and public health impacts in Africa. In 2000, RVF became a disease of global concern as it spread to the Arabian Peninsula. In our study, a Geographic Information System-based risk assessment for the occurrence of Rift Valley fever in China was established by means of ecological niche modelling. Based on occurrence records (RVF records from FAO EMPRES-i, vector records from literatures and GBIF) and high-resolution environmental layers, the prediction maps of RVF occurrence probability and distribution of five potential RVF vectors in China were modelled using Maxent. An internal validation was adopted for model verification, and high AUC values were obtained (0.918 for RVF and 0.837-0.992 for vectors). By overlaying the RVF prediction map with the combined RVF vector prediction map using Fuzzy overlay tool ('AND' operator) of ArcMap 10.2, we got the first risk map of possible RVF vector transmission. This map was further overlaid with the latest livestock distribution map ('AND' operator) to generate the second risk map of possible RVF threat to domestic livestock. The south-west border provinces in China, Yunnan, Guangxi and Tibet were predicted to have a high possibility of RVF occurrence. Conditions conducive to the local amplification of RVF also exist in these areas. Temperature seasonality, mean temperature of dry season and precipitation of the driest month were considered as key environmental variables for RVF, and common environmental conditions were found conductive for vectors. It is suggested to establish proper surveillance systems in south-west border areas to minimize the possibility of RVF invasion. Our findings can serve as a valuable reference for prevention measures to be implemented.

Circulation of Rift Valley Fever Virus Antibody in Cattle during Inter-Epizootic/Epidemic Periods in Selected Regions of Tanzania

Tanzania is one of the sub-Saharan countries that have experienced a number of Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks at intervals of 10-20 years since the first isolation of the virus during the early 1930s. Recent studies have reported serological evidence of inter epizootic/epidemic period circulation of RVF virus (RVFV) in livestock and humans. The aim of this study was to conduct a cross-sectional survey in Tanzania during 2015/16 to further explore the possibility that RVFV was circulating among cattle during the Inter epizootic/epidemic period. A total of 443 cattle samples were collected in Manyara, Dodoma, Singida, and Mbeya regions of Tanzania. The samples were tested for RVFV antibodies using a commercial ELISA kit and a plaque reduction neutralization test. Serum samples were also tested for RVFV viral RNA by an reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay. An overall RVFV seroprevalence rate of 7.7% (34/443) was detected by ELISA among cattle in all four regions. The Mbeya region cattle had the highest seroprevalence of 26.4% (23/87), followed by Dodoma 5.9% (10/171) and lastly Singida 0.9% (1/101). Of 33 ELISA antibody-positive samples, only 0.2% (1/443) had IgM antibody. Of 36 ELISA antibody-positive and doubtful samples, 32 were positive for neutralizing antibody with titers between 10 and > 10,240. None of the samples were positive for RVFV viral RNA by RT-PCR. The detection of RVFV antibodies in cattle suggested that these animals were involved in an enzootic cycle during the interepidemic period and that the high antibody titers may confer protection of cattle against RVFV.

Mechanisms of inter-epidemic maintenance of Rift Valley fever phlebovirus

Rift Valley fever phlebovirus (RVFV) is an arthropod-borne virus that has caused substantial epidemics throughout Africa and in the Arabian Peninsula. The virus can cause severe disease in livestock and humans and therefore the control and prevention of viral outbreaks is of utmost importance. The epidemiology of RVFV has some particular characteristics. Unexpected and significant epidemics have been observed in spatially and temporally divergent patterns across the African continent. Sudden epidemics in previously unaffected areas are followed by periods of long-term apparent absence of virus and sudden, unpredictable reoccurrence in disparate regions. Therefore, the elucidation of underlying mechanisms of viral maintenance is one of the largest gaps in the knowledge of RVFV ecology. It remains unknown whether the virus needs to be reintroduced before RVF outbreaks can occur, or if unperceived viral circulation in local vertebrates or mosquitoes is sufficient for maintenance of the virus. To gain insight into these knowledge gaps, we here review existing data that describe potential mechanisms of RVFV maintenance, as well as molecular and serological studies in endemic and non-endemic areas that provide evidence of an inter- or pre-epidemic virus presence. Basic and country-specific mechanisms of RVFV introduction into non-endemic countries are summarized and an overview of studies using mathematical modeling of RVFV persistence is given.

Risk factors associated with sustained circulation of six zoonotic arboviruses: a systematic review for selection of surveillance sites in non-endemic areas

Arboviruses represent a significant burden to public health and local economies due to their ability to cause unpredictable and widespread epidemics. To maximize early detection of arbovirus emergence in non-endemic areas, surveillance efforts should target areas where circulation is most likely. However, identifying such hotspots of potential emergence is a major challenge. The ecological conditions leading to arbovirus outbreaks are shaped by complex interactions between the virus, its vertebrate hosts, arthropod vector, and abiotic environment that are often poorly understood. Here, we systematically review the ecological risk factors associated with the circulation of six arboviruses that are of considerable concern to northwestern Europe. These include three mosquito-borne viruses (Japanese encephalitis virus, West Nile virus, Rift Valley fever virus) and three tick-borne viruses (Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, and louping-ill virus). We consider both intrinsic (e.g. vector and reservoir host competence) and extrinsic (e.g. temperature, precipitation, host densities, land use) risk factors, identify current knowledge gaps, and discuss future directions. Our systematic review provides baseline information for the identification of regions and habitats that have suitable ecological conditions for endemic circulation, and therefore may be used to target early warning surveillance programs aimed at detecting multi-virus and/or arbovirus emergence.

An Overview of the Most Significant Zoonotic Viral Pathogens Transmitted from Animal to Human in Saudi Arabia

Currently, there has been an increasing socioeconomic impact of zoonotic pathogens transmitted from animals to humans worldwide. Recently, in the Arabian Peninsula, including in Saudi Arabia, epidemiological data indicated an actual increase in the number of emerging and/or reemerging cases of several viral zoonotic diseases. Data presented in this review are very relevant because Saudi Arabia is considered the largest country in the Peninsula. We believe that zoonotic pathogens in Saudi Arabia remain an important public health problem; however, more than 10 million Muslim pilgrims from around 184 Islamic countries arrive yearly at Makkah for the Hajj season and/or for the Umrah. Therefore, for health reasons, several countries recommend vaccinations for various zoonotic diseases among preventive protocols that should be complied with before traveling to Saudi Arabia. However, there is a shortage of epidemiological data focusing on the emerging and reemerging of zoonotic pathogens transmitted from animal to humans in different densely populated cities and/or localities in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, further efforts might be needed to control the increasing impacts of zoonotic viral disease. Also, there is a need for a high collaboration to enhance the detection and determination of the prevalence, diagnosis, control, and prevention as well as intervention and reduction in outbreaks of these diseases in Saudi Arabia, particularly those from other countries. Persons in the health field including physicians and veterinarians, pet owners, pet store owners, exporters, border guards, and people involved in businesses related to animal products have adopted various preventive strategies. Some of these measures might pave the way to highly successful prevention and control results on the different transmission routes of these viral zoonotic diseases from or to Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the prevention of these viral pathogens depends on socioeconomic impacts, available data, improved diagnosis, and highly effective therapeutics or prophylaxis.

Rift Valley Fever Virus Exposure amongst Farmers, Farm Workers, and Veterinary Professionals in Central South Africa

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a re-emerging arboviral disease of public health and veterinary importance in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Major RVF epidemics were documented in South Africa in 1950⁻1951, 1974⁻1975, and 2010⁻2011. The number of individuals infected during these outbreaks has, however, not been accurately estimated. A total of 823 people in close occupational contact with livestock were interviewed and sampled over a six-month period in 2015⁻2016 within a 40,000 km² study area encompassing parts of the Free State and Northern Cape provinces that were affected during the 2010⁻2011 outbreak. Seroprevalence of RVF virus (RVFV) was 9.1% (95% Confidence Interval (CI95%): 7.2⁻11.5%) in people working or residing on livestock or game farms and 8.0% in veterinary professionals. The highest seroprevalence (SP = 15.4%; CI95%: 11.4⁻20.3%) was detected in older age groups (≥40 years old) that had experienced more than one known large epidemic compared to the younger participants (SP = 4.3%; CI95%: 2.6⁻7.3%). The highest seroprevalence was in addition found in people who injected animals, collected blood samples (Odds ratio (OR) = 2.3; CI95%: 1.0⁻5.3), slaughtered animals (OR = 3.9; CI95%: 1.2⁻12.9) and consumed meat from an animal found dead (OR = 3.1; CI95%: 1.5⁻6.6), or worked on farms with dams for water storage (OR = 2.7; CI95%: 1.0⁻6.9). We estimated the number of historical RVFV infections of farm staff in the study area to be most likely 3849 and 95% credible interval between 2635 and 5374 based on seroprevalence of 9.1% and national census data. We conclude that human RVF cases were highly underdiagnosed and heterogeneously distributed. Improving precautions during injection, sample collection, slaughtering, and meat processing for consumption, and using personal protective equipment during outbreaks, could lower the risk of RVFV infection.

Arboviruses isolated from the Barkedji mosquito-based surveillance system, 2012-2013

BACKGROUND

A mosquito-based arbovirus surveillance system was set up at Barkedji, Senegal after the first outbreak of Rift valley fever in West Africa in 1988. This system was recently updated using more sampling methods and collecting in greater number of ponds and villages sites.

METHODS

For the current study, mosquitoes were sampled biweekly between July and December 2012 and 2013 using CDC+CO2 light traps set at ground and canopy level, mosquito nets baited with goat, sheep, human or chicken, light traps baited with goat, sheep and chicken; bird-baited traps using pigeons or chickens placed either at the ground or canopy level. Collected mosquitoes were identified, pooled and screened for arboviruses.

RESULTS

A total of 42,969 mosquitoes in 4,429 pools were processed for virus isolation. Ten virus species were identified among 103 virus isolates. West Nile virus (WNV; 31 isolates), Barkedji virus (BARV; 18), Sindbis virus (SINV; 13), Usutu virus (USUV; 12), Acado virus (ACAV; 8), Ndumu virus (NDUV; 9), Sanar virus (SANV; 7), Bagaza virus (BAGV; 3), Rift valley fever virus (RVFV; 1), and Yaounde virus (YAOV; 1) were isolated from 9 ponds (91 strains) and 7 villages (12 strains). Only 3 virus species (WNV, NDU and SINV) were isolated from villages. The largest numbers of isolates were collected in October (29.1% of total isolates) and November (50.5%). Viruses were isolated from 14 mosquito species including Cx. neavei (69.9% of the strains), Cx. antennatus (9.7%), and Ma. uniformis (4.8%). NDUV, ACAV, and SINV are herein reported for the first time in the Barkedji area. Isolation of ACAV and SANV from a pool of male Ma. uniformis and USUV and BARV from a pool of male Cx. neavei, are reported for the first time to our knowledge.

CONCLUSION

Our data indicate that the Barkedji area is characterized by a high diversity of viruses of medical, veterinary and unknown importance. Arboviruses were first detected in July at the beginning of the rainy season and peaked in abundance in October and November. The Barkedji area, an enzootic focus of several potentially emerging arboviruses, should be surveilled annually to be prepared to deal with future disease emergence events.

Serological evidence of inter-epizootic/inter-epidemic circulation of Rift Valley fever virus in domestic cattle in Kyela and Morogoro, Tanzania

Background

Tanzania is among the Rift Valley fever (RVF) epizootic/endemic countries in sub Saharan Africa, where RVF disease outbreaks occur within a range of 3 to 17-year intervals. Detection of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) antibodies in animals in regions with no previous history of outbreaks raises the question of whether the disease is overlooked due to lack-of effective surveillance systems, or if there are strains of RVFV with low pathogenicity. Furthermore, which vertebrate hosts are involved in the inter-epidemic and inter-epizootic maintenance of RVFV? In our study region, the Kyela and Morogoro districts in Tanzania, no previous RVF outbreaks have been reported.

Methodology

The study was conducted from June 2014 to October 2015 in the Kyela and Morogoro districts, Tanzania. Samples (n = 356) were retrieved from both the local breed of zebu cattle (Bos indicus) and Bos indicus/Bos Taurus cross breed. RVFV antibodies were analyzed by two enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) approaches. Initially, samples were analyzed by a RVFV multi-species competition ELISA (cELISA), which detected both RVFV IgG and IgM antibodies. All serum samples that were positive with the cELISA method were specifically analysed for the presence of RVFV IgM antibodies to trace recent infection. A plaque reduction neutralization assay (PRNT₈₀) was performed to determine presence of RVFV neutralizing antibodies in all cELISA positive samples.

Findings

Overall RVFV seroprevalence rate in cattle by cELISA in both districts was 29.2% (104 of 356) with seroprevalence rates of 33% (47/147) in the Kyela district and 27% (57/209) in the Morogoro district. In total, 8.4% (30/356) of all cattle sampled had RVFV IgM antibodies, indicating current disease transmission. When segregated by districts, the IgM antibody seroprevalence was 2.0% (3/147) and 12.9% (27/209) in Kyela and Morogoro districts respectively. When the 104 cELISA positive samples were analyzed by PRNT₈₀ to confirm that RVFV-specific antibodies were present, the majority (89%, 93/104) had RVFV neutralising antibodies.

Conclusion

The results provided evidence of widespread prevalence of RVFV antibody among cattle during an inter-epizootic/inter-epidemic period in Tanzania in regions with no previous history of outbreaks. There is a need for further investigations of RVFV maintenance and transmission in vertebrates and vectors during the long inter-epizootic/inter-epidemic periods.

The RVFV maintenance between inter-epizootic/inter-epidemic periods is not fully understood, despite the widely hypothesized belief of maintenance via transovarially infected Aedes mosquito eggs. Increasing serological evidence however, suggests that there could be continuous virus circulation throughout these periods in domestic ruminants, wild animals and humans both in areas with and without known history of RVF outbreaks. In some countries, RVFV antibodies have been demonstrated in livestock raised in areas where no clinical disease has ever been reported. However, in Tanzania, RVFV antibodies in livestock have been demonstrated only in areas with history of RVF outbreaks, raising the question of whether the disease is not present, is overlooked due to lack of effective surveillance systems, or whether there are strains of RVFV with low pathogenicity that do not cause detectable clinical cases in non-outbreak areas. We report here inter-epizootic/inter-epidemic RVFV antibody prevalence in non-vaccinated cattle from areas with no previous RVF outbreak in Tanzania and demonstrate recent virus circulation by detection of IgM antibodies. The differences in RVFV seroprevalence in different study locations suggest local factors that favour the virus amplification and transmission within those areas.

Sero-prevalence and spatial distribution of Rift Valley fever infection among agro-pastoral and pastoral communities during Interepidemic period in the Serengeti ecosystem, northern Tanzania

Background

In the past two decades, Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreaks have been reported twice in Tanzania, with the most recent outbreak occurring in 2006/07. Given the ecology and climatic factors that support mosquito vectors in the Serengeti ecosystem, we hypothesized a continued transmission of RVF virus (RVFV) during interepidemic periods. This study was carried out to determine sero-prevalence, spatial distribution and factors associated with RVF in at-risk agro-pastoral and pastoral communities in the Serengeti Ecosystem in northern Tanzania.

Methods

A cross sectional study was carried out to establish the general exposure to RVFV by detecting anti–RVFV IgG and anti–RVFV IgM using ELISA techniques. The health facilities where human subjects were blood sampled concurrent with interviews included Bunda District Designated Hospital, Wasso DDH, Endulen hospital, Arash, Malambo, Olbabal, and Piyaya dispenaries (Ngorongoro district) and Nyerere DDH (Serengeti district) respectively. In addition, human subjects from Lamadi ward (Busega district) were recruited while receiving medical service at Bunda DDH. We conducted logistic regression to assess independent risk factor and mapped the hotspot areas for exposure to RVFV.

Results

A total of 751 subjects (males = 41.5%; females = 58.5%) with a median age of 35.5 years were enrolled at out-patient clinics. Of them, 34 (4.5, 95%CI 3.3–6.3%) tested positive for anti–RVFV IgG. Of the 34 that tested positive for anti–RVFV IgG, six (17.6%) tested positive for anti–RVFV IgM. Odds of exposure were higher among pastoral communities (aOR 2.9, 95% C.I: 1.21–6.89, p < 0.01), and agro-pastoral communities residing in Ngorongoro District (aOR 1.8, 95% C.I 1.14–3.39, p = 0.03). Hotspot areas for exposure to RVFV were Malambo, Olbalbal and Piyaya wards in Ngorongoro district, and Lamadi ward in Busega district.

Conclusions

The study found both previous and recent exposure of RVFV in humans residing in the Serengeti ecosystem as antibodies against both IgG and IgM were detected. Detection of anti-RVF IgM suggests an ongoing transmission of RVFV in humans during inter-epidemic periods. Residents of Ngorongoro district were most exposed to RVFV compared to Bunda and Serengeti districts. Therefore, the risk of exposure to RVFV was higher among pastoral communities compared to farming communities.

Maurice A, Purpura L, Ervin E, Balinandi S, Tumusiime A, Kyondo J, Mulei S, Tusiime P, Lutwama J, Klena JD, Brown S, Knust B, Rollin PE, Nichol ST, Shoemaker TR. Prevalence and risk factors of Rift Valley fever in humans and animals from Kabale district in Southwestern Uganda, 2016

Background

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease caused by Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) found in Africa and the Middle East. Outbreaks can cause extensive morbidity and mortality in humans and livestock. Following the diagnosis of two acute human RVF cases in Kabale district, Uganda, we conducted a serosurvey to estimate RVFV seroprevalence in humans and livestock and to identify associated risk factors.

Methods

Humans and animals at abattoirs and villages in Kabale district were sampled. Persons were interviewed about RVFV exposure risk factors. Human blood was tested for anti-RVFV IgM and IgG, and animal blood for anti-RVFV IgG.

Principal findings

655 human and 1051 animal blood samples were collected. Anti-RVFV IgG was detected in 78 (12%) human samples; 3 human samples (0.5%) had detectable IgM only, and 7 (1%) had both IgM and IgG. Of the 10 IgM-positive persons, 2 samples were positive for RVFV by PCR, confirming recent infection. Odds of RVFV seropositivity were greater in participants who were butchers (odds ratio [OR] 5.1; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.7–15.1) and those who reported handling raw meat (OR 3.4; 95% CI 1.2–9.8). No persons under age 20 were RVFV seropositive. The overall animal seropositivity was 13%, with 27% of cattle, 7% of goats, and 4% of sheep seropositive.

In a multivariate logistic regression, cattle species (OR 9.1; 95% CI 4.1–20.5), adult age (OR 3.0; 95% CI 1.6–5.6), and female sex (OR 2.1; 95%CI 1.0–4.3) were significantly associated with animal seropositivity. Individual human seropositivity was significantly associated with animal seropositivity by subcounty after adjusting for sex, age, and occupation (p < 0.05).

Conclusions

Although no RVF cases had been detected in Uganda from 1968 to March 2016, our study suggests that RVFV has been circulating undetected in both humans and animals living in and around Kabale district. RVFV seropositivity in humans was associated with occupation, suggesting that the primary mode of RVFV transmission to humans in Kabale district could be through contact with animal blood or body fluids.

Viral hemorrhagic fevers are known to cause high morbidity and mortality and pose a serious threat to human and animal populations in endemic countries. An outbreak of Rift Valley fever was detected in Kabale district in March, 2016 and identified the first human cases in Uganda since 1968. There was a need to perform a rapid assessment of the burden of Rift valley fever in Kabale district, identify undetected acute cases, identify risk factors associated with human disease, identify areas at high-risk or future infections, and to determine if this was a newly emerging infection or an endemic disease. Our study found the seroprevalence to be as high as 28% in humans and 36% in animals within some subcounties of Kabale district. Human seropositivity correlated with animal seropositivity, suggesting that animal to human transmission may be the predominant mode of virus spread. Our findings also suggest that this virus may have been endemic for many years prior to these human cases being identified.

A Smartphone App (AfyaData) for Innovative One Health Disease Surveillance from Community to National Levels in Africa: Intervention in Disease Surveillance

Background

We describe the development and initial achievements of a participatory disease surveillance system that relies on mobile technology to promote Community Level One Health Security (CLOHS) in Africa.

Objective

The objective of this system, Enhancing Community-Based Disease Outbreak Detection and Response in East and Southern Africa (DODRES), is to empower community-based human and animal health reporters with training and information and communication technology (ICT)–based solutions to contribute to disease detection and response, thereby complementing strategies to improve the efficiency of infectious disease surveillance at national, regional, and global levels. In this study, we refer to techno-health as the application of ICT-based solutions to enhance early detection, timely reporting, and prompt response to health events in human and animal populations.

Methods

An EpiHack, involving human and animal health experts as well as ICT programmers, was held in Tanzania in 2014 to identify major challenges facing early detection, timely reporting, and prompt response to disease events. This was followed by a project inception workshop in 2015, which brought together key stakeholders, including policy makers and community representatives, to refine the objectives and implementation plan of the DODRES project. The digital ICT tools were developed and packaged together as the AfyaData app to support One Health disease surveillance. Community health reporters (CHRs) and officials from animal and human health sectors in Morogoro and Ngorongoro districts in Tanzania were trained to use the AfyaData app. The AfyaData supports near- to real-time data collection and submission at both community and health facility levels as well as the provision of feedback to reporters. The functionality of the One Health Knowledge Repository (OHKR) app has been integrated into the AfyaData app to provide health information on case definitions of diseases of humans and animals and to synthesize advice that can be transmitted to CHRs with next step response activities or interventions. Additionally, a WhatsApp social group was made to serve as a platform to sustain interactions between community members, local government officials, and DODRES team members.

Results

Within the first 5 months (August-December 2016) of AfyaData tool deployment, a total of 1915 clinical cases in livestock (1816) and humans (99) were reported in Morogoro (83) and Ngorongoro (1832) districts.

Conclusions

These initial results suggest that the DODRES community-level model creates an opportunity for One Health engagement of people in their own communities in the detection of infectious human and animal disease threats. Participatory approaches supported by digital and mobile technologies should be promoted for early disease detection, timely reporting, and prompt response at the community, national, regional, and global levels.

Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of Rift Valley fever disease across Africa

Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Niño year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources.This article is part of the themed issue 'One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'.

Spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal clusters of measles incidence at the county level in Guangxi, China during 2004-2014: flexibly shaped scan statistics

Background

Outbreaks of measles re-emerged in Guangxi province during 2013–2014, where measles again became a major public health concern. A better understanding of the patterns of measles cases would help in identifying high-risk areas and periods for optimizing preventive strategies, yet these patterns remain largely unknown. Thus, this study aimed to determine the patterns of measles clusters in space, time and space-time at the county level over the period 2004–2014 in Guangxi.

Methods

Annual data on measles cases and population sizes for each county were obtained from Guangxi CDC and Guangxi Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Epidemic curves and Kulldorff’s temporal scan statistics were used to identify seasonal peaks and high-risk periods. Tango’s flexible scan statistics were implemented to determine irregular spatial clusters. Spatio-temporal clusters in elliptical cylinder shapes were detected by Kulldorff’s scan statistics. Population attributable risk percent (PAR%) of children aged ≤24 months was used to identify regions with a heavy burden of measles.

Results

Seasonal peaks occurred between April and June, and a temporal measles cluster was detected in 2014. Spatial clusters were identified in West, Southwest and North Central Guangxi. Three phases of spatio-temporal clusters with high relative risk were detected: Central Guangxi during 2004–2005, Midwest Guangxi in 2007, and West and Southwest Guangxi during 2013–2014. Regions with high PAR% were mainly clustered in West, Southwest, North and Central Guangxi.

Conclusions

A temporal uptrend of measles incidence existed in Guangxi between 2010 and 2014, while downtrend during 2004–2009. The hotspots shifted from Central to West and Southwest Guangxi, regions overburdened with measles. Thus, intensifying surveillance of timeliness and completeness of routine vaccination and implementing supplementary immunization activities for measles should prioritized in these regions.

The Role of Hyalomma Truncatum on the Dynamics of Rift Valley Fever: Insights from a Mathematical Epidemic Model

To date, our knowledge of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease spread and maintenance is still limited, as flooding, humid weather and presence of biting insects such as mosquitoes, have not completely explained RVF outbreaks. We propose a model that includes livestock, mosquitoes and ticks compartments structured according to their questing and feeding behaviour in order to study the possible role of ticks on the dynamics of RVF. To quantify disease transmission at the initial stage of the epidemic, we derive an explicit formula of the basic reproductive number, [Formula: see text]. Using the concept of Metzler matrix, we state necessary conditions for global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Results suggest that although host-ticks interactions may serve as disease reservoirs or disease amplifiers, the Aedes reproductive number should be kept under unity if disease post-epizootics activities are to be controlled. Results of both local and global sensitivity analysis of selected model parameters indicate that [Formula: see text] is more sensitive to the ticks attachment and detachment rates, probability of transmission from ticks to host and from host to ticks, length of infection in livestock and ticks death rate. Furthermore, when comparing the mean value of [Formula: see text] with that from previous studies which did not include ticks we found that our [Formula: see text] is very much larger resulting in an increase in the exponential phase of an outbreak. These findings suggest that if ticks are capable of transmitting the virus, they may be contributing to disease outbreaks and endemicity.

Effects of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of livestock diseases

The planet's mean air and ocean temperatures have been rising over the last century because of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These changes have substantial effects on the epidemiology of infectious diseases. We describe direct and indirect processes linking climate change and infectious diseases in livestock with reference to specific case studies. Some of the studies are used to show a positive association between temperature and expansion of the geographical ranges of arthropod vectors (e.g. Culicoides imicola, which transmits bluetongue virus) while others are used to illustrate an opposite trend (e.g. tsetse flies that transmit a range of trypanosome parasites in sub-Saharan Africa). We further describe a positive association between extreme events: droughts and El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) weather patterns and Rift Valley fever outbreaks in East Africa and some adaptation practices used to mitigate the impacts of climate change that may increase risk of exposure to infectious pathogens. We conclude by outlining mitigation and adaptation measures that can be used specifically in the livestock sector to minimize the impacts of climate change-associated livestock diseases.

Predicting Rift Valley Fever Inter-epidemic Activities and Outbreak Patterns: Insights from a Stochastic Host-Vector Model

Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks are recurrent, occurring at irregular intervals of up to 15 years at least in East Africa. Between outbreaks disease inter-epidemic activities exist and occur at low levels and are maintained by female Aedes mcintoshi mosquitoes which transmit the virus to their eggs leading to disease persistence during unfavourable seasons. Here we formulate and analyse a full stochastic host-vector model with two routes of transmission: vertical and horizontal. By applying branching process theory we establish novel relationships between the basic reproduction number, R0, vertical transmission and the invasion and extinction probabilities. Optimum climatic conditions and presence of mosquitoes have not fully explained the irregular oscillatory behaviour of RVF outbreaks. Using our model without seasonality and applying van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how outbreaks multi-year periodicity varies with the vertical transmission. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 1 to 10 years which essentially depends on the efficiency of vertical transmission. Our predictions are then compared to temporal patterns of disease outbreaks in Tanzania, Kenya and South Africa. Our analyses show that interaction between nonlinearity, stochasticity and vertical transmission provides a simple but plausible explanation for the irregular oscillatory nature of RVF outbreaks. Therefore, we argue that while rainfall might be the major determinant for the onset and switch-off of an outbreak, the occurrence of a particular outbreak is also a result of a build up phenomena that is correlated to vertical transmission efficiency.

Public Health Benefits from Livestock Rift Valley Fever Control: A Simulation of Two Epidemics in Kenya

In controlling Rift Valley fever, public health sector optimises health benefits by considering cost-effective control options. We modelled cost-effectiveness of livestock RVF control from a public health perspective in Kenya. Analysis was limited to pastoral and agro-pastoral system high-risk areas, for a 10-year period incorporating two epidemics: 2006/2007 and a hypothetical one in 2014/2015. Four integrated strategies (baseline and alternatives), combined from three vaccination and two surveillance options, were compared. Baseline strategy included annual vaccination of 1.2-11% animals plus passive surveillance and monitoring of nine sentinel herds. Compared to the baseline, two alternatives assumed improved vaccination coverage. A herd dynamic RVF animal simulation model produced number of animals infected under each strategy. A second mathematical model implemented in R estimated number people who would be infected by the infected animals. The 2006/2007 RVF epidemic resulted in 3974 undiscounted, unweighted disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Improving vaccination coverage to 41-51% (2012) and 27-33% (2014) 3 years before the hypothetical 2014/2015 outbreak can avert close to 1200 DALYs. Improved vaccinations showed cost-effectiveness (CE) values of US$ 43-53 per DALY averted. The baseline practice is not cost-effective to the public health sector.

Spatial Heterogeneity of Habitat Suitability for Rift Valley Fever Occurrence in Tanzania: An Ecological Niche Modelling Approach

BACKGROUND

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics.

Development and Assessment of a Geographic Knowledge-Based Model for Mapping Suitable Areas for Rift Valley Fever Transmission in Eastern Africa

Rift Valley fever (RVF), a mosquito-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans, is one of the most important viral zoonoses in Africa. The objective of the present study was to develop a geographic knowledge-based method to map the areas suitable for RVF amplification and RVF spread in four East African countries, namely, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia, and to assess the predictive accuracy of the model using livestock outbreak data from Kenya and Tanzania. Risk factors and their relative importance regarding RVF amplification and spread were identified from a literature review. A numerical weight was calculated for each risk factor using an analytical hierarchy process. The corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized and combined based on a weighted linear combination to produce maps of the suitability for RVF transmission. The accuracy of the resulting maps was assessed using RVF outbreak locations in livestock reported in Kenya and Tanzania between 1998 and 2012 and the ROC curve analysis. Our results confirmed the capacity of the geographic information system-based multi-criteria evaluation method to synthesize available scientific knowledge and to accurately map (AUC = 0.786; 95% CI [0.730-0.842]) the spatial heterogeneity of RVF suitability in East Africa. This approach provides users with a straightforward and easy update of the maps according to data availability or the further development of scientific knowledge.

Integrated Analysis of Environment, Cattle and Human Serological Data: Risks and Mechanisms of Transmission of Rift Valley Fever in Madagascar

Background

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans. Madagascar was heavily affected by RVF in 2008–2009, with evidence of a large and heterogeneous spread of the disease. The identification of at-risk environments is essential to optimize the available resources by targeting RVF surveillance in Madagascar. Herein, the objectives of our study were: (i) to identify the environmental factors and areas favorable to RVF transmission to both cattle and human and (ii) to identify human behaviors favoring human infections in Malagasy contexts.

Methodology/Principal Findings

First, we characterized the environments of Malagasy communes using a Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA). Then, we analyzed cattle and human serological data collected at national level using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, with the individual serological status (cattle or human) as the response, and MFA factors, as well as other potential risk factors (cattle density, human behavior) as explanatory variables. Cattle and human seroprevalence rates were positively associated to humid environments (p<0.001). Areas with high cattle density were at risk (p<0.01; OR = 2.6). Furthermore, our analysis showed that frequent contact with raw milk contributed to explain human infection (OR = 1.6). Finally, our study highlighted the eastern-coast, western and north-western parts as high-risk areas for RVF transmission in cattle.

Conclusions/Significance

Our integrated approach analyzing environmental, cattle and human datasets allow us to bring new insight on RVF transmission patterns in Madagascar. The association between cattle seroprevalence, humid environments and high cattle density suggests that concomitant vectorial and direct transmissions are critical to maintain RVF enzootic transmission. Additionally, in the at-risk humid environment of the western, north-western and the eastern-coast areas, suitable to Culex and Anopheles mosquitoes, vectorial transmission probably occurs in both cattle and human. The relative contribution of vectorial or direct transmissions could be further assessed by mathematic modelling.

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a pathogen that causes a vector-borne tropical disease. The disease affects ruminants and humans and severely impacts the health and economy of affected countries. Madagascar was heavily affected by Rift Valley fever (RVF) in 2008–2009, with evidence of a large and heterogeneous spread of the disease. Our study aims at identifying environmental and human-related risk factors for RVFV transmission. First, we characterized Malagasy environments according to their putative influence on RVFV mosquito density and population dynamics. Then we statistically analyzed cattle and human serological data collected at a national level with the individual serological status as response, and Malagasy environments previously characterized by climatic and landscape variables as well as other potential risk factors as explanatory variables. Our results identified humid environments of the western, north-western and eastern parts of the island as risky areas. The identification of at-risk environments is essential to focus veterinary surveillance and control of RVFV.

Has Rift Valley fever virus evolved with increasing severity in human populations in East Africa?

Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have occurred across eastern Africa from 1912 to 2010 approximately every 4–15 years, most of which have not been accompanied by significant epidemics in human populations. However, human epidemics during RVF outbreaks in eastern Africa have involved 478 deaths in 1998, 1107 reported cases with 350 deaths from 2006 to 2007 and 1174 cases with 241 deaths in 2008. We review the history of RVF outbreaks in eastern Africa to identify the epidemiological factors that could have influenced its increasing severity in humans. Diverse ecological factors influence outbreak frequency, whereas virus evolution has a greater impact on its virulence in hosts. Several factors could have influenced the lack of information on RVF in humans during earlier outbreaks, but the explosive nature of human RVF epidemics in recent years mirrors the evolutionary trend of the virus. Comparisons between isolates from different outbreaks have revealed an accumulation of genetic mutations and genomic reassortments that have diversified RVF virus genomes over several decades. The threat to humans posed by the diversified RVF virus strains increases the potential public health and socioeconomic impacts of future outbreaks. Understanding the shifting RVF epidemiology as determined by its evolution is key to developing new strategies for outbreak mitigation and prevention of future human RVF casualties.

Association of ecological factors with Rift Valley fever occurrence and mapping of risk zones in Kenya

OBJECTIVE

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne infection with great impact on animal and human health. The objectives of this study were to identify ecological factors that explain the risk of RVF outbreaks in eastern and central Kenya and to produce a spatially explicit risk map.

METHODS

The sensitivity of seven selected ecological variables to RVF occurrence was assessed by generalized linear modelling (GLM). Vegetation seasonality variables (from normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data) and 'evapotranspiration' (ET) (metrics) were obtained from 0.25-1km MODIS satellite data observations; 'livestock density' (N/km(2)), 'elevation' (m), and 'soil ratio' (fraction of all significant soil types within a certain county as a function of the total area of that county) were used as covariates.

RESULTS

'Livestock density', 'small vegetation integral', and the second principal component of ET were the most significant determinants of RVF occurrence in Kenya (all p ≤ 0.01), with high RVF risk areas identified in the counties of Tana River, Garissa, Isiolo, and Lamu.

CONCLUSIONS

Wet soil fluxes measured with ET and vegetation seasonality variables could be used to map RVF risk zones on a sub-regional scale. Future outbreaks could be better managed if relevant RVF variables are integrated into early warning systems.

Rift Valley fever: current challenges and future prospects

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic, mosquito-borne viral disease that affects human health and causes significant losses in the livestock industry. Recent outbreaks have led to severe human infections with high mortality rates. There are many challenges to applying effective preventive and control measures, including weak infrastructure of health facilities, lack of capacity and support systems for field logistics and communication, access to global expert organizations, and insufficient information on the epidemiological and reservoir status of the RVF virus. The health systems in East African countries are underdeveloped, with gaps in adaptability to new, more accurate and rapid techniques, and well-trained staff that affect their capacity to monitor and evaluate the disease. Surveillance and response systems are inadequate in providing accurate information in a timely manner for decision making to deal with the scope of interrupting the disease transmission by applying mass animal vaccination, and other preventive measures at the early stage of an outbreak. The historical vaccines are unsuitable for use in newborn and gestating livestock, and the recent ones require a booster and annual revaccination. Future live-attenuated RVF vaccines should possess lower safety concerns regardless of the physiologic state of the animal, and provide rapid and long-term immunity after a single dose of vaccination. In the absence of an effective vaccination program, prevention and control measures must be immediately undertaken after an alert is generated. These measures include enforcing and adapting standard protocols for animal trade and movement, extensive vector control, safe disposal of infected animals, and modification of human-animal contact behavior. Directing control efforts on farmers and workers who deal with, handle, or live close to livestock, and focusing on areas with populations at high risk of an epidemic are desirable. Consideration of prevention methods as a first-line strategy against RVF is practical owing to the absence of a human vaccine, particularly under the current high environmental risks and expanding global travel and animal trade. Universal platforms are needed to support coordinated efforts; alert and response operations; exchange of expertise; and disease detection, diagnosis, control, and prevention.

Modelling hotspots of the two dominant Rift Valley fever vectors (Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes) in Barkédji, Sénégal

BACKGROUND

Climatic and environmental variables were used successfully by using models to predict Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus outbreaks in East Africa. However, these models are not replicable in the West African context due to a likely difference of the dynamic of the virus emergence. For these reasons specific models mainly oriented to the risk mapping have been developed. Hence, the areas of high vector pressure or virus activity are commonly predicted. However, the factors impacting their occurrence are poorly investigated and still unknown. In this study, we examine the impact of climate and environmental factors on the likelihood of occurrence of the two main vectors of RVF in West Africa (Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes) hotspots.

METHODS

We used generalized linear mixed models taking into account spatial autocorrelation, in order to overcome the default threshold for areas with high mosquito abundance identified by these models. Getis' Gi*(d) index was used to define local adult mosquito abundance clusters (hotspot).

RESULTS

For Culex poicilipes, a decrease of the minimum temperature promotes the occurrence of hotspots, whereas, for Aedes vexans, the likelihood of hotspot occurrence is negatively correlated with relative humidity, maximum and minimum temperatures. However, for the two vectors, proximity to ponds would increase the risk of being in an hotspot area.

CONCLUSIONS

These results may be useful in the improvement of RVF monitoring and vector control management in the Barkedji area.

A study of Rift Valley fever virus in Morogoro and Arusha regions of Tanzania - serology and farmers' perceptions

INTRODUCTION

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonosis primarily affecting ruminants, resulting in epidemic abortions, fever, nasal and ocular discharges, haemorrhagic diarrhoea, and a high mortality rate among young animals. Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an arthropod-borne RNA virus occurring in epizootic periods associated with heavy rainfall. The last outbreak of RVF in Tanzania was in 2006-2007, resulting in severe economic losses and impaired food security due to greater number of deaths of livestock. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of antibodies against RVFV in sheep and goats in two different regions of Tanzania during an inter-epidemic period (IEP). In addition, the perception of important diseases among livestock keepers was assessed.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A cross-sectional serological survey was conducted in three purposively selected districts in Arusha and Morogoro regions of Tanzania. Serum samples from 354 sheep and goats were analysed in a commercial RVFV competitive ELISA. At the sampling missions, a questionnaire was used to estimate the socio-economic impact of infectious diseases.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

In total, 8.2% of the analysed samples were seropositive to RVF, and most seropositive animals were younger than 7 years, indicating a continuous circulation of RVFV in the two regions. None of the livestock keepers mentioned RVF as an important livestock disease.

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirms that RVFV is circulating at low levels in small ruminants during IEPs. In spite of recurring RVF outbreaks in Tanzania, livestock keepers seem to have a low awareness of the disease, making them poorly prepared and thus more vulnerable to future RVF outbreaks.

Rift Valley fever virus: A review of diagnosis and vaccination, and implications for emergence in Europe

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne virus, and is the causative agent of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic disease characterised by an increased incidence of abortion or foetal malformation in ruminants. Infection in humans can also lead to clinical manifestations that in severe cases cause encephalitis or haemorrhagic fever. The virus is endemic throughout much of the African continent. However, the emergence of RVFV in the Middle East, northern Egypt and the Comoros Archipelago has highlighted that the geographical range of RVFV may be increasing, and has led to the concern that an incursion into Europe may occur. At present, there is a limited range of veterinary vaccines available for use in endemic areas, and there is no licensed human vaccine. In this review, the methods available for diagnosis of RVFV infection, the current status of vaccine development and possible implications for RVFV emergence in Europe, are discussed.