The potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: a mathematical model

Associations of sugar-sweetened, artificially sweetened, and naturally sweet juices with Alzheimer's disease: a prospective cohort study

Epidemiological studies of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) with Alzheimer's disease (AD) have provided controversial findings. Furthermore, little is known about the association between pure fruit/vegetable juices and AD. The present study aims to estimate the associations of SSBs, ASBs, and pure fruit/vegetable juices with AD, and to evaluate the theoretical effects of replacing SSBs and ASBs with the different consumption of pure fruit/vegetable juices on the risk of AD. This prospective cohort study of the UK Biobank included 206,606 participants aged 39-72 years free of dementia at baseline between 2006 and 2010. Dietary intake of SSBs, ASBs, and pure fruit/vegetable juices (naturally sweet juices) were collected using a 24-h dietary recall questionnaire completed between 2009 and 2012. Incident AD was identified by medical and mortality records. Cox proportional hazard models and substitution models were conducted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 699 cases of AD were identified over a median follow-up of 9.5 years. The consumption of SSBs and ASBs (> 2 units/d) were associated with a higher risk of AD. However, participants who drank > 1-2 units/d of pure fruit/vegetable juices were associated with a lower risk of AD. In substitution models, replacing SSBs with an equivalent consumption of pure fruit/vegetable juices could be associated with a risk reduction of AD.

Area-level deprivation and individual-level socioeconomic correlates of the diabetes care cascade among black south africans in uMgungundlovu, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

South Africa is experiencing a rapidly growing diabetes epidemic that threatens its healthcare system. Research on the determinants of diabetes in South Africa receives considerable attention due to the lifestyle changes accompanying South Africa's rapid urbanization since the fall of Apartheid. However, few studies have investigated how segments of the Black South African population, who continue to endure Apartheid's institutional discriminatory legacy, experience this transition. This paper explores the association between individual and area-level socioeconomic status and diabetes prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control within a sample of Black South Africans aged 45 years or older in three municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal. Cross-sectional data were collected on 3,685 participants from February 2017 to February 2018. Individual-level socioeconomic status was assessed with employment status and educational attainment. Area-level deprivation was measured using the most recent South African Multidimensional Poverty Index scores. Covariates included age, sex, BMI, and hypertension diagnosis. The prevalence of diabetes was 23% (n = 830). Of those, 769 were aware of their diagnosis, 629 were receiving treatment, and 404 had their diabetes controlled. Compared to those with no formal education, Black South Africans with some high school education had increased diabetes prevalence, and those who had completed high school had lower prevalence of treatment receipt. Employment status was negatively associated with diabetes prevalence. Black South Africans living in more deprived wards had lower diabetes prevalence, and those residing in wards that became more deprived from 2001 to 2011 had a higher prevalence diabetes, as well as diabetic control. Results from this study can assist policymakers and practitioners in identifying modifiable risk factors for diabetes among Black South Africans to intervene on. Potential community-based interventions include those focused on patient empowerment and linkages to care. Such interventions should act in concert with policy changes, such as expanding the existing sugar-sweetened beverage tax.

The health and economic impact and cost effectiveness of interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya: a stakeholder engaged modelling study

BACKGROUND

The global increase in mean body mass index has resulted in a substantial increase of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including in many low- and middle-income countries such as Kenya. This paper assesses four interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya to determine their potential health and economic impact and cost effectiveness.

METHODS

We reviewed the literature to identify evidence of effect, determine the intervention costs, disease costs and total healthcare costs. We used a proportional multistate life table model to quantify the potential impacts on health conditions and healthcare costs, modelling the 2019 Kenya population over their remaining lifetime. Considering a health system perspective, two interventions were assessed for cost-effectiveness. In addition, we used the Human Capital Approach to estimate productivity gains.

RESULTS

Over the lifetime of the 2019 population, impacts were estimated at 203,266 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163,752 - 249,621) for a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages, 151,718 HALYs (95% UI 55,257 - 250,412) for mandatory kilojoule menu labelling, 3.7 million HALYs (95% UI 2,661,365-4,789,915) for a change in consumption levels related to supermarket food purchase patterns and 13.1 million HALYs (95% UI 11,404,317 - 15,152,341) for a change in national consumption back to the 1975 average levels of energy intake. This translates to 4, 3, 73 and 261 HALYs per 1,000 persons. Lifetime healthcare cost savings were approximately United States Dollar (USD) 0.14 billion (USD 3 per capita), USD 0.08 billion (USD 2 per capita), USD 1.9 billion (USD 38 per capita) and USD 6.2 billion (USD 124 per capita), respectively. Lifetime productivity gains were approximately USD 1.8 billion, USD 1.2 billion, USD 28 billion and USD 92 billion. Both the 20% tax on sugar sweetened beverages and the mandatory kilojoule menu labelling were assessed for cost effectiveness and found dominant (health promoting and cost-saving).

CONCLUSION

All interventions evaluated yielded substantive health gains and economic benefits and should be considered for implementation in Kenya.

Health systems performance for hypertension control using a cascade of care approach in South Africa, 2011-2017

Hypertension is a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality. In South Africa, the government has employed a whole systems approach to address the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. We used a novel incident care cascade approach to measure changes in the South African health system's ability to manage hypertension between 2011 and 2017. We used data from Waves 1-5 of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) to estimate trends in the hypertension care cascade and unmet treatment need across four successive cohorts with incident hypertension. We used a negative binomial regression to identify factors that may predict higher rates of hypertension control, controlling for socio-demographic and healthcare factors. In 2011, 19.6% (95%CI 14.2, 26.2) of individuals with incident hypertension were diagnosed, 15.4% (95%CI 10.8, 21.4) were on treatment and 7.1% had controlled blood pressure. By 2017, the proportion of individuals with diagnosed incident hypertension had increased to 24.4% (95%CI 15.9, 35.4). Increases in treatment (23.3%, 95%CI 15.0, 34.3) and control (22.1%, 95%CI 14.1, 33.0) were also observed, translating to a decrease in unmet need for hypertension care from 92.9% in 2011 to 77.9% in 2017. Multivariable regression showed that participants with incident hypertension in 2017 were 3.01 (95%CI 1.77, 5.13) times more likely to have a controlled blood pressure compared to those in 2011. Our data show that while substantial improvements in the hypertension care cascade occurred between 2011 and 2017, a large burden of unmet need remains. The greatest losses in the incident hypertension care cascades came before diagnosis. Nevertheless, whole system programming will be needed to sufficiently address significant morbidity and mortality related to having an elevated blood pressure.

Profiling ultra-processed foods in Thailand: sales trend, consumer expenditure and nutritional quality

BACKGROUND

Ultra-processed foods (UPF) are associated with adverse health outcomes. This study aimed to analyse the national trends in retail sales, consumer expenditure and nutritional quality of UPFs in Thailand.

METHODS

The study used data from the Euromonitor Passport database for analysis of retail sales and consumer expenditure, and from the Mintel Global New Products Database for nutritional analysis using the WHO Southeast Asian Region nutrient profile model.

RESULTS

The study found the highest per capita sales volume and value of UPFs in 2021 were sauces, dressings & condiments (8.4 kg/capita) and carbonated soft drinks (27.1 L/capita), respectively. However, functional & flavoured water, ready-made meals and baked goods had the highest observed (2012-2021) and expected (2021-2026) sales growth. Supermarkets were responsible for most of the UPF sales since 2012, but convenience stores had larger growth in retail values. Growth in consumer expenditure per capita on UPFs from 2012 to 2020, ranged between 12.7% and 34%, and till 2026 is forecast to grow between 26% and 30%. More than half of UPFs exceeded at least one nutrient cutoff, 59.3% for total fats, 24.8% for saturated fats, 68.2% for total sugars and 94.3% for sodium.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest a need for regulatory and non-regulatory measures such as UPF taxation and marketing restrictions, and market incentives for producing non-UPFs. A system for regularly monitoring and evaluating healthiness (both nutritional and processing aspects) of food products, especially UPFs, is required.

Effect of price and income on the demand for sugar-sweetened beverages in Nigeria: an analysis of household consumption data using an almost ideal demand system (AIDS)

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the own-price, cross-price and income elasticities for carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), malt drinks, chocolate powder, sachet water and sugar in Nigeria. These elasticities can be used to estimate the potential demand response to the recently-introduced sugar tax in Nigeria.

SETTING

The study uses household data from the 2018/2019 Nigeria Living Standards Survey (NLSS).

PARTICIPANTS

The NLSS is a national household survey. 21 114 households were included in the final sample for this analysis.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

We used Deaton's almost ideal demand system, which controls for the goods' quality, to estimate the effect of price and income changes on the demand for CSDs, chocolate powder, malt drinks, sachet water and sugar.

RESULTS

We found that the own-price elasticity (ordered from most to least price-responsive) was -0.99 (p<0.01) for sachet water, -0.76 (p<0.01) for CSDs, -0.72 (p<0.01) for chocolate powder, -0.62 (p<0.01) for sugar and -0.19 (p<0.01) for malt drinks. The cross-price elasticities indicate that malt drinks and chocolate powders are substitutes of CSDs. The income elasticities indicate that all the commodities are normal goods. Sachet water had the highest income elasticity at 0.62 (p<0.01), followed by chocolate powder at 0.54 (p<0.01), CSDs at 0.47 (p<0.01), malt drinks at 0.43 (p<0.01) and sugar at 0.13 (p<0.01).

CONCLUSION

Even though the price elasticities for CSDs, malt drinks and chocolate powder are less than one, in absolute terms, they are significantly different from zero. Increases in the sugar-sweetened beverage tax could curb the demand for these beverages, and, in turn, reduce the incidence and prevalence of sugar-attributable diseases.

Understanding the Impact of Social Networks on the Spread of Obesity

Previous research has highlighted the significant role social networks play in the spread of non-communicable chronic diseases. In our research, we seek to explore the impact of these networks in more detail and gain insight into the mechanisms that drive this. We use obesity as a case study. To achieve this, we develop a generalisable hybrid simulation and optimisation approach aimed at gaining qualitative and quantitative insights into the effect of social networks on the spread of obesity. Our simulation model has two components. Firstly, an agent-based component mimics the dynamic structure of the social network within which individuals are situated. Secondly, a system dynamics component replicates the relevant behaviours of those individuals. The parameters from the combined model are refined and optimised using longitudinal data from the United Kingdom. The simulation produces projections of Body Mass Index broken down by different age groups and gender over a 10-year period. These projections are used to explore a range of scenarios in a computational study designed to address our research aims. The study reveals that, for the youngest population sub-groups, the network acts to magnify the impact of external and social factors on changes in obesity, whereas, for older sub-groups, the network mitigates the impact of these factors. The magnitude of that impact is inversely correlated with age. Our approach can be used by public health decision makers as well as managers in adult weight management services to enhance initiatives and strategies intended to reduce obesity. Our approach is generalisable to understand the impact of social networks on similar non-communicable diseases.

Effect of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation on sugars intake and dental caries: an umbrella review of a global perspective

BACKGROUND

As part of the Global Strategy on Oral health, the World Health Organization (WHO) is exploring cost-effective interventions for oral health, including taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). To inform this process, this umbrella review aimed to identify the best available estimates pertaining to the impact of SSB taxation on the reduction of sugars intake, and the sugars-caries dose-response, such that estimates of the impact of SSB taxation on averting dental caries in both high (HIC) and low and middle (LMIC) countries be available.

METHODS

The questions addressed were: (1) what are the effects of SSB taxation on consumption of SSBs and (2) sugars? (3) What is the effect on caries of decreasing sugars? and (4) what is the likely impact of a 20% volumetric SSB tax on the number of active caries prevented over 10 years? Data sources included PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL, Dentistry and Oral Sciences Source, Cochrane Library, Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Systematic Review Register, and PROSPERO. The review was conducted with reference to JBI guidelines. The quality of included systematic reviews was assessed using AMSTAR to identify best evidence.

RESULTS

From 419 systematic reviews identified for questions 1 & 2, and 103 for question 3, 48 (Questions 1 & 2) and 21 (Question 3) underwent full text screening, yielding 14 and five included reviews respectively. Best available data indicated a 10% tax would reduce SSB intake by 10.0% (95% CI: -5.0, 14.7%) in HIC and by 9% (range -6.0 to 12.0%) in LMIC, and that a 20% tax would reduce free sugars intake on average by 4.0 g/d in LMIC and 4.4 g/d in HIC. Based on best available dose response data, this could reduce the number of teeth with caries per adults (HIC and LMIC) by 0.03 and caries occurrence in children by 2.7% (LMIC) and 2.9% (HIC), over a 10-year period.

CONCLUSION

Best available data suggest a 20% volumetric SSB tax would have a modest impact on prevalence and severity of dental caries in both HIC and LMIC.

Dietary sugar consumption and health: umbrella review

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the quality of evidence, potential biases, and validity of all available studies on dietary sugar consumption and health outcomes.

DESIGN

Umbrella review of existing meta-analyses.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and hand searching of reference lists.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, case-control studies, or cross sectional studies that evaluated the effect of dietary sugar consumption on any health outcomes in humans free from acute or chronic diseases.

RESULTS

The search identified 73 meta-analyses and 83 health outcomes from 8601 unique articles, including 74 unique outcomes in meta-analyses of observational studies and nine unique outcomes in meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. Significant harmful associations between dietary sugar consumption and 18 endocrine/metabolic outcomes, 10 cardiovascular outcomes, seven cancer outcomes, and 10 other outcomes (neuropsychiatric, dental, hepatic, osteal, and allergic) were detected. Moderate quality evidence suggested that the highest versus lowest dietary sugar consumption was associated with increased body weight (sugar sweetened beverages) (class IV evidence) and ectopic fatty accumulation (added sugars) (class IV evidence). Low quality evidence indicated that each serving/week increment of sugar sweetened beverage consumption was associated with a 4% higher risk of gout (class III evidence) and each 250 mL/day increment of sugar sweetened beverage consumption was associated with a 17% and 4% higher risk of coronary heart disease (class II evidence) and all cause mortality (class III evidence), respectively. In addition, low quality evidence suggested that every 25 g/day increment of fructose consumption was associated with a 22% higher risk of pancreatic cancer (class III evidence).

CONCLUSIONS

High dietary sugar consumption is generally more harmful than beneficial for health, especially in cardiometabolic disease. Reducing the consumption of free sugars or added sugars to below 25 g/day (approximately 6 teaspoons/day) and limiting the consumption of sugar sweetened beverages to less than one serving/week (approximately 200-355 mL/week) are recommended to reduce the adverse effect of sugars on health.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022300982.

The Potential Impact of Different Taxation Scenarios towards Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Overweight and Obesity in Brazil: A Modeling Study

The adoption of fiscal policies based on the specific taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been recommended by international health agencies, as they are measures that potentially reduce consumption. This study is an ex ante risk comparison that estimates the impact of three tax scenarios (20, 25, and 30%) with a 100% pass-on rate to SSBs on the prevalence of high weight and obesity in the Brazilian population. Data on the consumption habits, weight, and height of 46,164 adults aged 20 years or over from Brazilian recent national surveys were used. The shift in consumption after taxation was estimated based on the price elasticity of the demand. The percentage changes in overweight for 20, 25, and 30% taxation were 1.84% (95%CI: 1.82; 1.86), 1.89% (95%CI: 1.87; 1.90), and 2.25% (95%CI: 2.24; 2.27), respectively. The change in the prevalence of obesity was 1.93% (95%CI: 1.87; 2.00), 2.90% (95%CI: 2.80; 3.02), and 4.16% (95%CI: 4.01; 4.32), respectively. Taxes on SSBs may have a more favorable result among the heaviest consumers, who are young adults (20-29 years), especially men, thereby promoting a greater reduction in the prevalence of high weight and obesity.

Simulation models of sugary drink policies: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Simulation modeling methods are an increasingly common tool for projecting the potential health effects of policies to decrease sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake. However, it remains unknown which SSB policies are understudied and how simulation modeling methods could be improved. To inform next steps, we conducted a scoping review to characterize the (1) policies considered and (2) major characteristics of SSB simulation models.

METHODS

We systematically searched 7 electronic databases in 2020, updated in 2021. Two investigators independently screened articles to identify peer-reviewed research using simulation modeling to project the impact of SSB policies on health outcomes. One investigator extracted information about policies considered and key characteristics of models from the full text of included articles. Data were analyzed in 2021-22.

RESULTS

Sixty-one articles were included. Of these, 50 simulated at least one tax policy, most often an ad valorem tax (e.g., 20% tax, n = 25) or volumetric tax (e.g., 1 cent-per-fluid-ounce tax, n = 23). Non-tax policies examined included bans on SSB purchases (n = 5), mandatory reformulation (n = 3), warning labels (n = 2), and portion size policies (n = 2). Policies were typically modeled in populations accounting for age and gender or sex attributes. Most studies focused on weight-related outcomes (n = 54), used cohort, lifetable, or microsimulation modeling methods (n = 34), conducted sensitivity or uncertainty analyses (n = 56), and included supplementary materials (n = 54). Few studies included stakeholders at any point in their process (n = 9) or provided replication code/data (n = 8).

DISCUSSION

Most simulation modeling of SSB policies has focused on tax policies and has been limited in its exploration of heterogenous impacts across population groups. Future research would benefit from refined policy and implementation scenario specifications, thorough assessments of the equity impacts of policies using established methods, and standardized reporting to improve transparency and consistency.

Price elasticity and affordability of aerated or sugar-sweetened beverages in India: implications for taxation

BACKGROUND

The sale of aerated or sugar-sweetened beverages (ASBs) has been consistently growing in India which has also experienced a major increase in non-communicable diseases. This study estimates the price elasticities of ASBs by different household-income groups in India and examine the trends in their affordability.

METHODS

The price elasticity for ASBs were estimated using a nationally representative household sample survey on consumption of ASBs in India and with Deaton's method which is robust to self-reported household expenditure surveys. Trends in affordability of ASBs were estimated using relative income price (RIP) which measured the proportion of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) required to purchase 100 L of ASBs in a given year. The elasticity parameters were used to estimate the incremental tax needed for a 10% reduction in ASB consumption.

RESULTS

The own-price elasticity of ASBs is - 0.94 in the overall sample and varied between - 1.04 to - 0.83 from low- to high-income households. There has been an annual average decline of about 6.8% in RIP of ASBs or an increase in their affordability over the last 13 years. Increasing the compensation cess on ASBs under the current Goods and Services Tax (GST) to 29%, will have the effect of decreasing ASB consumption by 10% and increasing the tax revenue by about 27%.

CONCLUSION

The taxation policy on ASBs in India has largely been ineffective at increasing the real retail prices of ASBs as a result of which ASB consumption grew. ASBs should be classified along with other unhealthy products like tobacco and alcohol as demerit products for the purpose of taxation and their taxes should be regularly increased sufficiently enough to compensates for both general price inflation and income growth so as to decreases their affordability.

Direct and Indirect Determinants of Body Mass Index in Both Major Ethnic Groups Experiencing the Nutritional Transition in Cameroon

In the context of rapid nutritional transitions in Africa, few studies have analyzed the etiology of obesity by considering the driver pathways that predict body mass index (BMI). The aim of this study is to innovatively identify these driver pathways, including the main sociodemographic and socioecological drivers of BMI. We conducted a rural–urban quantitative study in Cameroon (n = 1106; balanced sex ratio) to explore this issue. We recruited participants and reported several sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., marital status, socioeconomic status (SES), and ethnicity). We then assessed three main socioecological drivers of BMI (body weight perception, dietary intake, and physical activity) and conducted bioanthropometric measurements. We identified several driver pathways predicting BMI. In Cameroon, Bamiléké ethnicity, higher SES, being married, and older age had positive effects on BMI through overweight valorization and/or dietary intake. Accordingly, we found that being Bamiléké, married, and middle-aged, as well as having a higher SES, were factors that constituted at-risk subgroups overexposed to drivers of obesity. As such, this study highlights the necessity of investigating the complex driver pathways that lead to obesity. Therefore, better identification of the subgroups at risk for obesity will help in developing more targeted population health policies in countries where this burden is a major public health issue.

Effects of public policies in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases: a systematic review of global literature

OBJECTIVES

Given the growing interest worldwide in applying public policies to improve human health, we undertook a systematic review of studies investigating whether public policies targeting unhealthy products could reduce cardiovascular diseases.

STUDY DESIGN

This study was a systematic review of the literature.

METHODS

We searched research studies published in 2000-2020 from major databases, including MEDLINE and Embase. We followed Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and narratively synthesized the studies based on vote counting and direction of the intervention effect.

RESULTS

Ninety-eight studies, mostly from high-income countries, met the inclusion criteria. Most studies were on public policies targeting sugar-sweetened beverages and tobacco, followed by alcohol, sugar, salt, and junk foods. Overall, many reported that several fiscal, regulatory, and educational policies generated beneficial effects of reducing the diseases. Those studies that reported no or limited effects highlighted several sociodemographic and health risk characteristics and design and implementation aspects of the policy interventions as factors limiting the policy effects; most of these are modifiable with appropriate policy interventions. For instance, low magnitude of tax, substitution with other unhealthy products, firms' competitive response strategies, pre-existence of smoking bans, incremental enactment of smoking regulations, degree of enforcement, and various sociocultural factors minimized the effects of the policies.

CONCLUSION

The literature supports a growing consensus on the beneficial effects of public policy for improving human health. The design and implementation of public policies must address various impeding factors and incorporate appropriate remedial measures. Further research is needed from low- and middle-income countries and on whether and how multiple policy instruments work in tandem.

Trends in energy and nutrient content of menu items served by large UK chain restaurants from 2018 to 2020: an observational study

Objective

The objective of this study was to evaluate the change in energy and nutrient content of menu items sold in large UK chain restaurants (eg, fast food, full service) from 2018 to 2020.

Design

Observational study.

Setting

Energy and nutritional information of menu items served by 29 large UK chain restaurants that consistently provided this information online in all three years. Data were collected in 2018 (March–April), 2019 (April) and 2020 (October–November) from restaurant websites.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

The per-item energy and nutrient (saturated fat, sugar and salt) changes in all items available on menus (‘all menu items’) and recurring items that were consistently available on menus in all three years (‘core menu items’), overall and in 12 different food categories.

Results

Our study included 7770, 9213 and 6928 menu items served by 29 large UK chain restaurants in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. Our results showed that sugar content declined from 2018 to 2020 among all menu items (per-item: −0.43 g/year, 95% CI −0.66 to –0.21). This reduction in sugar was evident in beverages, sandwiches and desserts. Among core menu items (N=1855), sugar content reduced significantly from 2018 to 2020 (per-item: −0.31 g/year, 95% CI −0.45 to –0.17), especially in beverages. Energy, salt and saturated fat content in menu items remained constant overall, in both all menu items and core menu items. Fewer food categories had significant changes in energy, sugar, salt and saturated fat content among core menu items than among all menu items.

Conclusions

From 2018 to 2020, sugar content declined in restaurant menu items, which may reflect a response to the sugar reduction strategy and the effects of the soft drinks industry levy. In contrast, there was little change in other nutrients. Future policies addressing the overall nutritional quality of restaurant foods, rather than single nutrients, may help the restaurant sector move towards offering healthier foods.

South Africa's Health Promotion Levy: Excise tax findings and equity potential

In 2016, the South African government proposed a 20% sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax. Protracted consultations with beverage manufacturers and the sugar industry followed. This resulted in a lower sugar-based beverage tax, the Health Promotion Levy (HPL), of approximately 10% coming into effect in April 2018. We provide a synthesis of findings until April 2021. Studies show that despite the lower rate, purchases of unhealthy SSBs and sugar intake consumption from SSBs fell. There were greater reductions in SSB purchases among both lower socioeconomic groups and in subpopulations with higher SSB consumption. These subpopulations bear larger burdens from obesity and related diseases, suggesting that this policy improves health equity. The current COVID-19 pandemic has impacted food and nutritional security. Increased pandemic mortality among people with obesity, diabetes, and hypertension highlight the importance of intersectoral public health disease-prevention policies like the HPL, which should be strengthened.

Sugar sweetened beverages attributable disease burden and the potential impact of policy interventions: a systematic review of epidemiological and decision models

BACKGROUND

Around 184,000 deaths per year could be attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption worldwide. Epidemiological and decision models are important tools to estimate disease burden. The purpose of this study was to identify models to assess the burden of diseases attributable to SSBs consumption or the potential impact of health interventions.

METHODS

We carried out a systematic review and literature search up to August 2018. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted, and assessed the quality of the included studies through an exhaustive description of each model's features. Discrepancies were solved by consensus. The inclusion criteria were epidemiological or decision models evaluating SSBs health interventions or policies, and descriptive SSBs studies of decision models. Studies published before 2003, cost of illness studies and economic evaluations based on individual patient data were excluded.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 2766 references. Out of the 40 included studies, 45% were models specifically developed to address SSBs, 82.5% were conducted in high-income countries and 57.5% considered a health system perspective. The most common model's outcomes were obesity/overweight (82.5%), diabetes (72.5%), cardiovascular disease (60%), mortality (52.5%), direct medical costs (57.35%), and healthy years -DALYs/QALYs- (40%) attributable to SSBs. 67.5% of the studies modelled the effect of SSBs on the outcomes either entirely through BMI or through BMI plus diabetes independently. Models were usually populated with inputs from national surveys -such us obesity prevalence, SSBs consumption-; and vital statistics (67.5%). Only 55% reported results by gender and 40% included children; 30% presented results by income level, and 25% by selected vulnerable groups. Most of the models evaluated at least one policy intervention to reduce SSBs consumption (92.5%), taxes being the most frequent strategy (75%).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a wide range of modelling approaches of different complexity and information requirements to evaluate the burden of disease attributable to SSBs. Most of them take into account the impact on obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, mortality, and economic impact. Incorporating these tools to different countries could result in useful information for decision makers and the general population to promote a deeper implementation of policies to reduce SSBs consumption.

PROSPERO PROTOCOL NUMBER

CRD42020121025 .

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages as a policy to reduce overweight and obesity in countries of different income classifications: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the potential impact of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes on overweight and obesity prevalence in countries of different income classifications.

DESIGN

Systematic review following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines (PROSPERO number CRD42020161612). Five databases (Cochrane Library, Embase, LILACS (via Virtual Health Library) and MEDLINE (via PubMed), and Web of Science were searched, from January 2009 to December 2019. Articles that reported changes in purchases, sales, intake, body weight, BMI, overweight and/or obesity prevalence due to a tax on or price change in SSB were included.

SETTING

Studies conducted in countries of different income classifications.

PARTICIPANTS

The search yielded 8349 articles of which 21 met inclusion criteria.

RESULTS

Among the sixteen studies selected, only two did not show that consumption, sales and purchase decreased as the price of SSB increased. In eight of the thirteen studies selected, a positive effect of an SSB tax on decreasing overweight and obesity prevalence was expected. It is estimated that a 20 % taxation on SSB would result in a greater decrease in the prevalence of overweight and obesity compared to a 10 % rate. Studies with no significant effect of taxing on sales, purchases, consumption and prevalence of obesity were from high-income countries, while significant effects of taxing on reducing purchase, consumption and/or obesity prevalence were found in studies from upper-middle- and middle-income countries.

CONCLUSION

A high SSB tax might be an effective fiscal policy to decrease purchase and consumption of SSB and reduce overweight/obesity prevalence, especially if the tax were specific for beverage volume.

Assessing sugar-sweetened beverage intakes, added sugar intakes and BMI before and after the implementation of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To provide insight into the context and public health implications of the South African sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax (Health Promotion Levy; HPL) by describing SSB and added sugar intakes, as well as BMI, 1 year prior to, at the time of and 1 year after implementation of the HPL.

DESIGN

Longitudinal dietary intake was assessed using a quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) and BMI was measured via anthropometry.

SETTING

Soweto, Johannesburg, South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Adolescents, young adults and middle-aged adults (n 617).

RESULTS

At baseline, median SSB intakes were 36 ml/d, 214 ml/d and 750 ml/d for those in low, medium and high consumption tertiles, respectively. SSB intake decreased by two times/week in medium consumers and seven times/week in high consumers between baseline and 12 months, equivalent to 107 ml/d and 536 ml/d reductions, respectively. These reduced levels were maintained in the following year (i.e. to 24 months). There was an overall decrease in the amount of energy consumed as added sugar in the low (-48 kJ/d), medium (-153 kJ/d) and high (-106 kJ/d) SSB consumption groups between baseline and 24 months; however, the percentage of total energy consumed as added sugar remained relatively consistent (between 10 and 11 %). There were small overall increases in BMI across low (0·6 kg/m2), medium (0·9 kg/m2) and high (1·0 kg/m2) SSB tertiles between baseline and 24 months.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest reductions in SSB and added sugar consumption contemporaneous to the introduction of the HPL - particularly for those with higher baseline intakes.

The potential health and revenue effects of a tax on sugar sweetened beverages in Zambia

The global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has been rising. A key risk factor for NCDs is obesity, which has been partly linked to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). A tax on SSBs is an attractive control measure to curb the rising trend in NCDs, as it has the potential to reduce consumption of SSBs. However, studies on the potential effects of SSB taxes have been concentrated in high-income countries with limited studies in low-income and middle-income countries. Using data from the 2015 Zambia Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) data, the 2017 Zambia NCD STEPS Survey, and key parameters from the literature, we simulated the effect of a 25% SSB tax in Zambia on energy intake and the corresponding change in body mass index (BMI), obesity prevalence, deaths averted, life years gained and revenues generated using a mathematical model developed using Microsoft Excel. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to construct 95% confidence bands and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties in key parameters. We found that a 25% SSB would avert 2526 deaths, though these results were not statistically significant overall. However, when broken down by gender, the tax was found to significantly avert 1133 deaths in women (95% CI 353 to 1970). The tax was found to potentially generate an additional US$5.46 million (95% CI 4.66 to 6.14) in revenue annually. We conclude that an SSB tax in Zambia has the potential to significantly decrease the amount of disability-adjusted life years lost to lifestyle-related diseases in women, highlighting important health equity outcomes. Women have higher baseline BMI and therefore are at higher risk for NCDs. In addition, an SSB tax will provide government with additional revenue which if earmarked for health could contribute to healthcare financing in Zambia.

Barriers to, and facilitators of, the adoption of a sugar sweetened beverage tax to prevent non-communicable diseases in Uganda: a policy landscape analysis

Background

Uganda is experiencing an increase in nutrition-related non-communicable diseases. Risk factors include overconsumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. Fiscal and taxation policies aim to make the consumption of healthier foods easier. However, the adoption and implementation of fiscal policies by countries are constrained by political and economic challenges.

Objective

We investigated the policy and political landscape related to the prevention of nutrition-related non-communicable diseases in Uganda to identify barriers to and facilitators of the adoption of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Uganda.

Methods

A desk-based policy analysis of policies related to nutrition-related non-communicable diseases and sugar-sweetened beverage taxation was conducted. Four key informant consultations (n = 4) were conducted to verify the policy review and to gain further insight into the policy and stakeholder contexts. Analysis was framed by Kingdon’s theory of agenda setting and policy change.

Results

Nutrition-related non-communicable diseases were recognised as an emerging problem in Uganda. The Government has adopted a comprehensive approach to improve diets, but implementation is slow. There is limited recognition of the consumption of sugar and sugar-sweetened beverages as a contributor to the nutrition-related non-communicable disease burden in policy documents. Existing taxes on soft drinks are lower than the World Health Organization’s recommended rate of 20% and do not target sugar content. The soft drink industry has been influential in framing the taxation debate, and the Ministry of Finance previously reduced taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages. Maintaining competitiveness in a regional market is an important business strategy. However, the Ministry of Health and other public health actors in civil society have been successful (albeit marginally) in countering reductions in taxation, which are supported by industry.

Conclusions

An established platform for sugar-sweetened beverage taxation advocacy exists in Uganda. Compelling local research that explicitly links soft drink taxes to health goals is essential to advance sugar-sweetened beverage taxation.

Impacts of a sugar sweetened beverage tax on body mass index and obesity in Thailand: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes to address obesity. Thailand has just launched the new tax rates for SSB in 2017; however, the existing tax rate is not as high as the 20% recommended by the WHO. The objective for this study was to estimate the impacts of an SSB tax on body mass index (BMI) and obesity prevalence in Thailand under three different scenarios based on existing SSB and recommended tax rates.

METHODS

A base model was built to estimate the impacts of an SSB tax on SSB consumption, energy intake, BMI, and obesity prevalence. Literature review was conducted to estimate pass on rate, price elasticity, energy compensation, and energy balance to weight change. Different tax rates (11%, 20% and 25%) were used in the model. The model assumed no substitution effects, model values were based on international data since there was no empirical Thai data available. Differential effects by income groups were not estimated.

FINDINGS

When applying 11%, 20%, and 25% tax rates together with 100% pass on rate and an -1.30 own-price elasticity, the SSB consumption decreased by 14%, 26%, and 32%, respectively. The 20% and 25% price increase in SSB price tended to reduce higher energy intake, weight status and BMI, when compared with an 11% increase in existing price increase of SSB. The percentage changes of obesity prevalence of 11%, 20% and 25% SSB tax rates were estimated to be 1.73%, 3.83%, and 4.91%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher SSB tax (20% and 25%) was estimated to reduce consumption and consequently decrease obesity prevalence. Since Thailand has already endorsed the excise tax structure, the new excise tax structure for SSB should be scaled up to a 20% or 25% tax rate if the SSB consumption change does not meet a favourable goal.

Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption, weight gain, and risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases in Asia: a systematic review

CONTEXT

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is increasing in Asia and several countries are adopting preventive policies to reduce consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). However, evidence on the relation between SSB consumption and cardiometabolic health in Asian populations has not been summarized.

OBJECTIVE

In this systematic review, the associations between consumption of SSBs and cardiometabolic outcomes, including obesity, T2DM, and CVD, are examined in Asian populations.

DATA SOURCES

The PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases, and gray literature were searched up to October, 2020 to identify relevant articles.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two investigators independently extracted data from included studies.

DATA ANALYSIS

When sufficient studies were available, a random-effects meta-analysis was used to calculate the pooled estimates (expressed as risk ratio [RR] and 95% confidence interval [CI]). Heterogeneity was tested and quantified using the Cochrane Q test and I2 statistic, respectively.

RESULTS

Of the 17 studies included, 8 provided results about measures of adiposity (3 on weight change, 4 on body mass index (BMI), 2 on percent body fat, and 1 on abdominal obesity), 6 reported results about T2DM, and 3 reported on different CVD outcomes. High SSB consumption was significantly associated with greater weight gain and with a higher risk of selected CVD outcomes as compared with low consumption. In the meta-analysis, high SSB consumption was associated with greater T2DM risk before (RR, 1.51; 95%CI, 1.15-1.98 for highest vs lowest category; I2 = 76%) and after (RR, 1.38; 95%CI, 1.09-1.73; I2 = 56%) adjustment for BMI.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that high SSB consumption is directly associated with weight gain, risk of T2DM, and, possibly, selected CVD outcomes in Asian populations. Public health strategies to reduce SSB consumption in Asian countries are warranted.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration no. CRD42019129456.Keywords: adiposity. cardiovascular disease, Asia, sugar-sweetened beverages, type 2 diabetes.

Changes in beverage purchases following the announcement and implementation of South Africa's Health Promotion Levy: an observational study

BACKGROUND

In 2016, South Africa announced an intention to levy a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). In 2018, the country implemented an SSB tax of approximately 10%, known as the Health Promotion Levy (HPL). We aimed to assess changes in the purchases of beverages before and after the HPL announcement and implementation.

METHODS

We used Kantar Europanel data on monthly household purchases between January, 2014, and March, 2019, among a sample of South African households (n=113 653 household-month observations) from all nine provinces to obtain per-capita sugar, calories, and volume from taxable and non-taxable beverages purchased before and after the HPL announcement and implementation. We describe survey-weighted means for each period, and regression-controlled predictions of outcomes and counterfactuals based on pre-HPL announcement trends, with bootstrapped 95% CIs, and stratify results by socioeconomic status.

FINDINGS

Mean sugar from taxable beverage purchases fell from 16·25 g/capita per day (95% CI 15·80-16·70) to 14·26 (13·85-14·67) from the pre-HPL announcement to post-announcement period, and then to 10·63 g/capita per day (10·22-11·04) in the year after implementation. Mean volumes of taxable beverage purchases fell from 518·99 mL/capita per day (506·90-531·08) to 492·16 (481·28-503·04) from pre-announcement to post announcement, and then to 443·39 mL/capita per day (430·10-456·56) after implementation. Across these time periods, there was a small increase in the purchases of non-taxable beverages, from 283·45 mL/capita per day (273·34-293·56) pre-announcement to 312·94 (296·29-329·29) post implementation. When compared with pre-announcement counterfactual trends, reductions in taxable beverage purchase outcomes were significantly larger than the unadjusted survey-weighted observed reductions. Households with lower socioeconomic status purchased larger amounts of taxable beverages in the pre-announcement period than did households with higher socioeconomic status, but demonstrated bigger reductions after the tax was implemented.

INTERPRETATION

The announcement and introduction of South Africa's HPL were followed by reductions in the sugar, calories, and volume of beverage purchases.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies, International Development Research Centre, South African Medical Research Council, and the US National Institutes of Health.

Examining the news media reaction to a national sugary beverage tax in South Africa: a quantitative content analysis

BACKGROUND

South Africa was the first sub-Saharan African country to implement a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax called the Health Promotion Levy (HPL) in April 2018. Given news media can increase public awareness and sway opinions, this study analyzed how the media represented the HPL, including expressions of support or challenge, topics associated with the levy, and stakeholder views of the HPL.

METHODS

We performed a quantitative content analysis of online South African news articles related to the HPL published between January 1, 2017 and June 30, 2019. We coded the presence or absence of mentions related to health and economic effects of the HPL and HPL support or opposition. Prevalence of these mentions, overall and by source (industry, government, academics, other), were analyzed with Pearson χ2 and post-hoc Fisher exact tests.

RESULTS

Across all articles, 81% mentioned health, and 65% mentioned economics topics. 54% of articles expressed support, 26% opposition, and 20% a balanced view of the HPL. All sources except industry expressed majority support for the HPL. Health reasons were the most common justifications for support, and economic harms were the most common justifications for opposition. Statements that sugar intake is not related to obesity, the HPL will not reduce SSB intake, and the HPL will cause industry or economic harm were all disproportionately high in industry sources (92, 80, and 81% vs 25% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.001). Statements that sugar intake is related to obesity and non-communicable diseases were disproportionately high in both government (46 and 54% vs 31% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.001) and academics (33 and 38% vs 25% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.05). Statements that the HPL will improve health and the HPL will reduce health care costs were disproportionately high in government (47% vs 31% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.001) and academics (44% vs 25% prevalence in total sample) (p < 0.05), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Industry expressed no support for the HPL, whereas academics, government, and other sources mainly expressed support. Future studies would be improved by linking news media exposure to SSB intake data to better understand the effects news media may have on individual behavior change.

When Industrial Policies Conflict With Population Health: Potential Impact of Removing Food Subsidies on Obesity Rates

OBJECTIVES

To model the potential impact on obesity of removing butter, cheese, and sugar subsidies in the Canary Islands.

METHODS

A simulation model was applied based on a local data set of subsidies and retail prices (2007-2016), data on own-price elasticity estimates, and representative nutritional and health surveys. We estimated marginal obesity prevalence and population attributable fraction to assess the potential impact of the butter, cheese, and sugar subsidies intervention.

RESULTS

The intervention was predicted to avoid 10 363 obese adults over the study period, because of the reduction of the obesity prevalence by -0.7 percentage points. Overall, the predicted effect was largest in elderly and male groups, although females with a low socioeconomic status experienced the greatest decrease in the prevalence. The population attributable fraction predicted that 4.0% of population with obesity were attributable to the existence of these subsidies.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis provides policy makers with the predicted impact on obesity of the butter, cheese, and sugar subsidies disposal, enabling them to incorporate this health impact into decision making across policy areas in the economic and health field. This study aims to model the potential impact on obesity of removing industrial subsidies for butter, cheese and sugar in the Canary Islands.

The legal feasibility of adopting a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in seven sub-Saharan African countries

Background: A number of countries have adopted sugar-sweetened beverage taxes to prevent non-communicable diseases but there is variance in the structures and rates of the taxes. As interventions, sugar-sweetened beverage taxes could be cost-effective but must be compliant with existing legal and taxation systems.Objectives: To assess the legal feasibility of introducing or strengthening taxation laws related to sugar-sweetened beverages, for prevention of non-communicable diseases in seven countries: Botswana, Kenya, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.Methods: We assessed the legal feasibility of adopting four types of sugar-sweetened beverage tax formulations in each of the seven countries, using the novel FELIP framework. We conducted a desk-based review of the legal system related to sugar-sweetened beverage taxation and assessed the barriers to, and facilitators and legal feasibility of, introducing each of the selected formulations by considering the existing laws, laws related to impacted sectors, legal infrastructure, and processes involved in adopting laws.Results: Six countries had legal mandates to prevent non-communicable diseases and protect the health of citizens. As of 2019, all countries had excise tax legislation. Five countries levied excise taxes on all soft drinks, but most did not exclusively target sugar-sweetened beverages, and taxation rates were well below the World Health Organization's recommended 20%. In Uganda and Kenya, agricultural or HIV-related levies offered alternative mechanisms to disincentivise consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages without the introduction of new taxes. Nutrition-labelling laws in all countries made it feasible to adopt taxes linked to the sugar content of beverages, but there were lacunas in existing infrastructure for more sophisticated taxation structures.Conclusion: Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes are legally feasible in all seven countries Existing laws provide a means to implement taxes as a public health intervention.

The data availability landscape in seven sub-Saharan African countries and its role in strengthening sugar-sweetened beverage taxation

Background: Credible data and indicators are necessary for country-specific evidence to support the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation.Objective: A cross-country analysis was undertaken in seven Sub-Saharan African countries to describe the potential role of available data in strengthening SSB taxation. The objectives were to: document currently available data sources; report on public access; discuss strengths and limitations for use in monitoring SSB taxation; describe policy maker's data needs, and propose improvements in data collection.Methods: The study used a mixed-methods approach involving a secondary data analysis of publicly available documents, and a qualitative exploration of the data needs of policy makers' using primary data. Findings were synthesised and assessed for data strengths and weaknesses, including usability and availability. SSB taxation-related data availability was critically assessed with respect to adequacy in strengthening taxation policy on SSBs.Results: Findings showed a paucity of SSB taxation-related data in all seven countries. National survey data are inadequate regarding the intake of SSBs and household expenditure on SSBs. Fiscal data from SSB tax revenue, value added tax from SSB sales, corporate income tax from SSB companies and SSB custom duty revenues, are lacking. Accurate information on the soft drink industry is not easily accessed.Conclusion: Timely, easily understood, concise, and locally relevant evidence is needed in order to inform policy development on SSBs. The relevant data are drawn from multiple sectors. Cross- sector collaboration is therefore needed. Indicators for SSBs should be developed and included in current data collection tools to ensure monitoring and evaluation for SSB taxation.

Industry strategies in the parliamentary process of adopting a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in South Africa: a systematic mapping

BACKGROUND

In 2016, the South African government became the first in the African region to announce the introduction of an SSB tax based on sugar content as a public health measure to reduce obesity. This tax was introduced against the backdrop of South Africa having a large sugar production and SSB manufacturing industry, as well as very high unemployment rates. The introduction of fiscal measures, such as a SSB tax, has been met with well-coordinated and funded opposition in other countries.

METHODS

The aim of this study is to describe and analyse the arguments and strategies utilised by industry during policymaking processes to oppose regulatory actions in LMIC. This study analyses arguments and strategies used by the beverage and related industries during the public consultation phase of the process to adopt the South African SSB tax.

RESULTS

Industry opposition to the SSB tax was comprehensive and employed several tactics. First, industry underscored its economic importance and the potential job losses and other economic harms that may arise from the tax. This argument was well-received by policymakers, and similar to industry tactics employed in other middle income countries like Mexico. Second, industry discussed self-regulation and voluntary measures as a form of policy substitution, which mirrors industry responses in the US, the Caribbean and Latin America. Third, industry misused or disputed evidence to undermine the perceived efficacy of the tax. Finally, considerations for small business and their ability to compete with multi-national corporations were a unique feature of industry response.

CONCLUSIONS

Industry opposition followed both general trends, and also introduced nuanced and context-specific arguments. The industry response experienced in South Africa can be instructive for other countries contemplating the introduction of similar measures.

A qualitative analysis of perceptions of various stakeholders on nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, including the taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), to improve overall health and nutrition in South Africa

BACKGROUND

As a low-middle income country, South Africa has seen an upsurge in the double burden of malnutrition (DBM). Owing to the rising costs of obesity on healthcare in South Africa, the National Treasury implemented a fiscal policy for the taxation of SSBs, known as the Health Promotion Levy, in line with the WHO recommendation. Potential negative impacts of the policy on the sugar cane industry and economic and rural development have been voiced by different sectors. By including a subsection in the SSBs fiscal policy and aligning the goals with existing policies, government could have made provisions for sugar cane farms to substitute crops with alternatives, including nutritional alternatives where possible, while supporting existing small-scale farms to produce nutrient-dense, local and culturally acceptable crops. Thus, the purpose of the study is to understand the perceptions of the various stakeholders on combining nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions with the taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) to improve overall health and nutrition in South Africa.

METHODS

Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with each participant. The interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed intelligent verbatim, and cross-checked against the audio-recordings by the principal researcher. ATLAS.ti 8 software was used to navigate the data and assist with thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Perceptions of combining SSB taxation with agricultural policies to improve food and nutrition security were positive. The participants found it to be an innovative idea in theory but questioned the feasibility of combining policies. Participants highlighted education as an essential element for successfully changing behaviour to ensure a positive impact of the combined policy approach. Participants believed that before government could scale up nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, basic services and government functions would first need to run optimally.

CONCLUSION

Overall, perceptions with regard to combining the taxation on SSBs with nutrition-sensitive agricultural policies to improve overall health and nutrition in South Africa were positive. Although participants questioned the feasibility of combining these policies, it was viewed as a way to combat alleged collateral damage linked to the tax, with a specific focus on developing small-scale farmers. More research into these combined policy approaches in a South African context is required.

Public acceptability of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax and its associated factors in the Netherlands

Objective:

To investigate the level of public acceptability of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax and its associated factors.

Design:

Participants completed an online self-administered questionnaire. Acceptability of an SSB tax was measured on a seven-point Likert scale (strongly disagree to strongly agree). Associations between acceptability and sociodemographic factors, weight status, SSB consumption and beliefs about effectiveness (e.g., ‘An SSB tax would reduce people’s SSB consumption’), appropriateness, socioeconomic and economic benefit, implementation and trust were assessed using multivariable linear regression analyses.

Setting:

The Netherlands.

Participants:

Dutch adults aged ≥18 years representative of the Dutch population for age, sex, education level and location (n 500).

Results:

Of the participants, 40 % supported and 43 % opposed an SSB tax in general. Moreover, 42 % supported (43 % opposed) an SSB tax as a strategy to reduce overweight, and 55 % supported (32 % opposed) an SSB tax if revenue is used for health initiatives. Participants with a low education level (B = –0·82, 95 % CI –1·31, –0·32), overweight (B = –0·49, 95 % CI –0·89, –0·09), moderate or high SSB consumption (B = –0·86, 95 % CI –1·30, –0·43 and B = –1·01, 95 % CI –1·47, –0·56, respectively) and households with adolescents (B = –0·57, 95 % CI –1·09, –0·05) reported a lower acceptability of an SSB tax than their counterparts. Beliefs about effectiveness, appropriateness, socioeconomic and economic benefit, implementation and trust were associated with acceptability (P < 0·001).

Conclusions:

Public acceptability of an SSB tax tends to be higher if revenue is used for health initiatives. The factors associated with acceptability should be taken into consideration.

Operational research to support equitable non-communicable disease policy in low-income and middle-income countries in the sustainable development era: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent a growing health burden in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Operational research (OR) has been used globally to support the design of effective and efficient public policies. Equity is emphasised in the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) framework introduced in 2015 and can be analysed within OR studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus and Web of Science for studies published between 2015 and 2018 at the intersection of five domains (OR, LMICs, NCDs, health and decision-making and/or policy-making). We categorised the type of policy intervention and described any concern for equity, which we defined as either analysis of differential impact by subgroups or, policy focus on disadvantaged groups or promoting universal health coverage (UHC).

RESULTS

A total of 149 papers met the inclusion criteria. The papers covered a number of policy types and a broad range of NCDs, although not in proportion to their relative disease burden. A concern for equity was demonstrated by 88 of the 149 papers (59%), with 8 (5%) demonstrating differential impact, 47 (32%) targeting disadvantaged groups, and 68 (46%) promoting UHC.

CONCLUSION

Overall, OR for NCD health policy in the SDG era is being applied to a diverse set of interventions and conditions across LMICs and researchers appear to be concerned with equity. However, the current focus of published research does not fully reflect population needs and the analysis of differential impact within populations is rare.

The potential global gains in health and revenue from increased taxation of tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages: a modelling analysis

Introduction

Globally, a growing burden of morbidity and mortality is attributable to lifestyle behaviours, and in particular to the consumption of tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). In low-income and middle-income countries, this increased disease burden falls on already encumbered and resource-constrained healthcare systems. Fiscal policies, specifically taxation, can lower consumption of tobacco, alcohol and SSB while raising government revenues.

Methods

We simulated the health and economic effects of taxing cigarettes, alcohol and SSB over 50 years for 30-79 years old populations using separate mathematical models for each commodity that incorporated country-level epidemiological, demographic and consumption data. Based on data availability, national-level health effects of higher tobacco, alcohol and SSB taxes were simulated in 141, 166 and 176 countries, respectively, which represented 92%, 97% and 95% of the global population, respectively. Economic effects for tobacco, alcohol and SSB were estimated for countries representing 91%, 43% and 83% of the global population, respectively. These estimates were extrapolated to the global level by matching countries according to income level.

Results

Over 50 years, taxes that raise the retail price of tobacco, alcoholic beverages and SSB by 20% could result in a global gain of 160.7 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 96.3 to 225.2 million), 227.4 million (UI: 161.2 to 293.6 million) and 24.3 million (UI: 15.7 to 35.4 million) additional life years, respectively.

Conclusion

Excise tax increases on tobacco, alcohol and SSB can produce substantial health gains by reducing premature mortality while raising government revenues, which could be used to increase public health funding.

Contradictions within the SDGs: are sin taxes for health improvement at odds with employment and economic growth in Zambia

Background

A recurring discussion in the literature relates to the possible contradictions among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The focus has been on economic goals, such as economic growth and goals related to climate change. We explore the possible contradictions that may arise between economic goals and health goals, specifically, the goal on Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) — SDG3.4. As a way to achieve SDG3.4, countries have been urged to introduce sin taxes, such as those on sugar. Yet others have argued that such taxes may affect employment (SDG 8.5), economic growth (SDG 8.1), and increase poverty (SDG1). However, there is limited or no reliable evidence, using actual experience, on the effect of sugar tax on health and economic outcomes. This makes it hard to assess the possible contradictions in SDGs that sugar taxes may generate.

Main body

Using a conceptual framework on SDGs that views relationships among SDGs as either contradictory, reinforcing, or neutral, we carefully consider whether there are contradictions between SDG 3.4 on one hand and SDG 1, SDG 8.1, and SDG 8.5 on the other hand. We illustrate this using Zambia which recently introduced an equivalent 3% tax on non-alcoholic beverages, implicitly targeted at sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), given the stated goal of reducing NCDs. Concerns are that such a tax would be detrimental to the Zambia sugar value chain which contributes about 6% to GDP, in which case the achievement of SDG 3.4 (health) would be at odds with, or contradict, SDG 1, SDG 8.1, and SDG 8.5 (poverty eradication, economic growth, and creation of employment). We discuss that the existence of contradictions depend on a number of contextual factors, which allows us to make two conclusions about sugar taxation in Zambia. First, the current tax rate of 3% is likely neutral (no contradictions or reinforcing relationships) because it is too low to have any health or employment effects. However, the revenue raised can be reinvested to improve livelihoods. Secondly, the tax rate should be increased but care has to be exercised to ensure that the rate is not too high to generate contradictions. There will be need to carefully assess important parameters such as elasticities and explore alternative economic livelihoods.

Conclusion

Without paying due consideration to important contextual factors, Zambia and many LMIC risk experiencing contradictions among SDGs.

Corporations' use and misuse of evidence to influence health policy: a case study of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation

Background

Sugar sweetened beverages (SSB) are a major source of sugar in the diet. Although trends in consumption vary across regions, in many countries, particularly LMICs, their consumption continues to increase. In response, a growing number of governments have introduced a tax on SSBs. SSB manufacturers have opposed such taxes, disputing the role that SSBs play in diet-related diseases and the effectiveness of SSB taxation, and alleging major economic impacts. Given the importance of evidence to effective regulation of products harmful to human health, we scrutinised industry submissions to the South African government’s consultation on a proposed SSB tax and examined their use of evidence.

Results

Corporate submissions were underpinned by several strategies involving the misrepresentation of evidence. First, references were used in a misleading way, providing false support for key claims. Second, raw data, which represented a pliable, alternative evidence base to peer reviewed studies, was misused to dispute both the premise of targeting sugar for special attention and the impact of SSB taxes on SSB consumption. Third, purposively selected evidence was used in conjunction with other techniques, such as selective quoting from studies and omitting important qualifying information, to promote an alternative evidential narrative to that supported by the weight of peer-reviewed research. Fourth, a range of mutually enforcing techniques that inflated the effects of SSB taxation on jobs, public revenue generation, and gross domestic product, was used to exaggerate the economic impact of the tax. This “hyperbolic accounting” included rounding up figures in original sources, double counting, and skipping steps in economic modelling.

Conclusions

Our research raises fundamental questions concerning the bona fides of industry information in the context of government efforts to combat diet-related diseases. The beverage industry’s claims against SSB taxation rest on a complex interplay of techniques, that appear to be grounded in evidence, but which do not observe widely accepted approaches to the use of either scientific or economic evidence. These techniques are similar, but not identical, to those used by tobacco companies and highlight the problems of introducing evidence-based policies aimed at managing the market environment for unhealthful commodities.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12992-019-0495-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The distributional impact of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages: findings from an extended cost-effectiveness analysis in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Facing increasing obesity prevalence and obesity-related disease burden, South Africa has devised an obesity prevention strategy that includes a recently implemented tax on the sugar content of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). We assess the potential distributional impact (across socioeconomic groups) of this tax on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence and associated mortality and its financial burden on households.

METHODS

We conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis of the new 10% tax on SSBs in South Africa, and estimated: the averted premature deaths related to T2DM, the financial benefits to households (out-of-pocket (OOP) medical costs and indirect costs due to productivity losses averted), the increased government tax revenues and healthcare savings for the government, all across income quintiles.

FINDINGS

A 10% SSB tax increase would avert an estimated 8000 T2DM-related premature deaths over 20 years, with most deaths averted among the third and fourth income quintiles. The government would save about South African rand (ZAR) 2 billion (US$140 million) in subsidised healthcare over 20 years; and would raise ZAR6 billion (US$450 million) in tax revenues per annum. The bottom two quintiles would bear the smallest tax burden increase (36% of the additional taxes). The bottom two income quintiles would also have the lowest savings in OOP payments due to significant subsidisation provided by government healthcare. Lastly, an estimated 32 000 T2DM-related cases of catastrophic expenditures and 12 000 cases of poverty would be averted.

CONCLUSIONS

SSB taxation would have a substantial distributional impact on obesity-related premature deaths, cost savings to the government and the financial outcomes of South Africa's population.

Attitudes and perceptions among urban South Africans towards sugar-sweetened beverages and taxation

OBJECTIVE

A tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) was introduced in South Africa in April 2018. Our objective was to document perceptions and attitudes among urban South Africans living in Soweto on factors that contribute to their SSB intake and on South Africa's use of a tax to reduce SSB consumption.

DESIGN

We conducted six focus group discussions using a semi-structured guide.

SETTING

The study was conducted in Soweto, Johannesburg, South Africa, 3 months before South Africa's SSB tax was implemented.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged 18 years or above living in Soweto (n 57).

RESULTS

Participants reported frequent SSB consumption and attributed this to habit, addiction, advertising and wide accessibility of SSB. Most of the participants were not aware of the proposed SSB tax; when made aware of the tax, their responses included both beliefs that it would and would not result in reduced SSB intake. However, participants indicated cynicism with regard to the government's stated motivation in introducing the tax for health rather than revenue reasons.

CONCLUSIONS

While an SSB tax is a policy tool that could be used with other strategies to reduce people's high level of SSB consumption in Soweto, our findings suggest a need to complement the SSB tax with a multipronged behaviour change strategy. This strategy could include both environmental and individual levers to reduce SSB consumption and its associated risks.

The Use of Excise Taxes to Reduce Tobacco, Alcohol, and Sugary Beverage Consumption

In countries around the world, tobacco use, excessive alcohol consumption, and consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are significant contributors to the global epidemic of noncommunicable diseases. As a consequence, they contribute, as well, to excess health care costs and productivity losses. A large and growing body of research documents that taxes specific to such products, known as excise taxes, reduce consumption of these products and thereby diminish their adverse health consequences. Although such taxation has historically been motivated primarily by revenue generation, governments are increasingly using these taxes to discourage unhealthy consumption. We review the global evidence on the impact of taxes and prices on the consumption of these products and the health and social consequences. We then evaluate arguments commonly raised against these taxes, identify best practices in excise tax policy, and conclude with a summary of the current status of tobacco, alcohol, and SSB excise taxes globally.

What are the potential preventive population-health effects of a tax on processed meat? A quantitative health impact assessment for Germany

The International Agency for Research on Cancer considers processed meat to be carcinogenic. Further, processed meat is associated with diabetes, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and all-cause mortality. We aimed to assess health gains of four processed meat taxation scenarios in comparison to the reference and a minimum-risk-exposure-scenario. To estimate the shift in processed meat intake following respective taxes, we calculated price elasticities for processed meat. DYNAMO-HIA was used to dynamically project policy-attributable differences in the prevalence of diseases and deaths. In projection year 10, an extra 9300 males and 4500 females would be alive under the lowest tax scenario (4% tax), compared to the reference scenario. Prevalent IHD, diabetes and colorectal cancer cases in males would be 8400, 9500 and 500 lower, respectively, and there would be 4600, 7800 and 300 less cases in females. Of the respective death and disease reduction that would be achieved under the minimum-risk-exposure-scenario, the lowest tax reaches 2.84% (colorectal cancer in males) to 6.02% (diabetes in females). Under the highest tax scenario (33.3% tax), an extra 76,700 males and 37,100 females would be alive, compared to the reference scenario. Prevalent IHD, diabetes and colorectal cancer cases would be 70,800, 77,900 and 4900 lower in males and 29,900, 48,900 and 2300 lower in females, which represents 27.84% (colorectal cancer in males) to 37.76% (diabetes in females) of the maximal preventable death and disease burden. Further research needs to examine to what extent these health benefits are outweighed by a simultaneous tax-induced decrease in fish intake.

Modelling the impact of a tax on sweetened beverages in the Philippines: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis

Objective

To assess the potential impact of a new tax on sweetened beverages on premature deaths associated with noncommunicable diseases in the Philippines.

Methods

In January 2018, the Philippines began imposing a tax of 6 Philippine pesos per litre (around 13%) on sweetened beverages to curb the obesity burden. Using national data sources, we conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis to estimate the effect of the tax on the numbers of premature deaths averted attributed to type 2 diabetes mellitus, ischaemic heart disease and stroke, across income quintiles over the period 2018-2037. We also estimated the financial benefits of the tax from reductions in out-of-pocket payments, direct medical costs averted and government health-care cost savings.

Findings

The tax could avert an estimated 5913 deaths related to diabetes, 10 339 deaths from ischaemic heart disease and 7950 deaths from stroke over 20 years. The largest number of deaths averted could be among the fourth and fifth (highest) income quintiles. The tax could generate total health-care savings of 31.6 billion Philippine pesos (627 million United States dollars, US$) over 20 years, and raise 41.0 billion Philippine pesos (US$ 813 million) in revenue per annum. The poorest quintile could bear the smallest tax burden increase (14% of the additional tax; 5.6 billion Philippine pesos) and have the lowest savings in out-of-pocket payments due to relatively large health-care subsidies. Finally, we estimated that 13 890 cases of catastrophic expenditure could be averted.

Conclusion

The new sweetened beverage tax may help to reduce obesity-related premature deaths and improve financial well-being in the Philippines.

How much free sugar do Australians consume? Findings from a national survey

OBJECTIVE

To identify the characteristics of Australian adults exceeding the World Health Organization's free sugar (FS) intake recommendations of <10% and compare the sources of FS among those exceeding (high FS consumers) and complying (low FS consumers) with the recommendations.

METHOD

Nationally weighted data from the Australian National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey 2011-12 was used to describe the proportions of FS consumption and sources of FS among adults aged ≥18 years (n=9,435) across demographic, socioeconomic and health behavioural subgroups. Six categories of food groups likely to contain FS were generated and analysed.

RESULTS

Almost half of all adults (47%) were high FS consumers. More than one-third of adults in each demographic, socioeconomic and health behaviour subgroup were high FS consumers. Of the food groups containing FS, beverages contributed the most FS (37%), particularly for young adults (48%). High FS consumers obtained twice as much FS from beverages (42%) than low FS consumers (21%). A reverse age gradient was observed for the FS sourced from beverages.

CONCLUSIONS

Almost half the Australians surveyed exceeded the FS intake recommendations. Sugary beverages were the largest source of FS, with young adults being the highest consumers. Implications for public health: Whole population strategies targeting beverages could possibly reduce Australia's high sugar intake.

Changes in food intake from 2005 to 2010 by a cohort of black rural and urban African men and women in the North West Province of South Africa: the PURE-NWP-SA study

OBJECTIVE

We have shown that nutrient intakes of rural and urban black Africans in the North West Province (NWP) of South Africa (SA) followed the typical nutrition transition pattern upon urbanization and modernization. The current study aimed to examine and report on the changes in food intakes from 2005 to 2010 in rural and urban black South Africans participating in the PURE-NWP-SA study.Design/Setting/SubjectsThe PURE-NWP-SA study recruited 2010 volunteers aged 35-70 years in 2005, from which detailed food intakes, measured with a validated quantified FFQ, for 1858 participants were available. In 2010, food intakes of a cohort of 1154 of these participants were measured.

RESULTS

Median energy intake increased in men and women in both rural and urban areas from 2005 to 2010. Changes in food intake were interpreted keeping these changes in energy intake and the contribution of foods and food groups to total energy intake in mind. No 'new' foods were eaten in 2010, but more participants consumed certain foods and products in 2010 than in 2005. Beneficial changes were increased intakes of vegetables, fruit and milk in most groups. The contribution of cooked staple porridges and bread made from fortified maize and bread flour decreased and therefore also did their contribution to micronutrient intakes.

CONCLUSIONS

By promoting and supporting observed beneficial changes such as increased intakes of milk, vegetables and fruit by appropriate policies and educational interventions, it should be possible to steer the nutrition transition in this population into a positive direction.

Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes: Industry Response and Tactics

The consumption of sugary beverages (SBs) has increasingly grown in many countries and is a significant contributor to the rise in obesity and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In response, public health officials in multiple countries have pushed for implementing a tax on SBs in order to reduce their consumption. Today, many individuals, especially those of lower socioeconomic status, live in environments in which unhealthy foods and drinks are more accessible than healthier ones. The beverage industry has greatly contributed to the formation of these "obesogenic" environments through their extensive advertising activities and effective marketing strategies. With rising public awareness of sugar's link to obesity, the industry has heavily invested in campaigns that seek to shift the blame away from their products and has aggressively opposed legislative efforts to pass an SB tax. This perspective will focus on explaining the rationale and necessity of an SB tax by highlighting the tactics the beverage industry has employed that have contributed to the formation and maintenance of the present unhealthy food environment.

Rapidly increasing body mass index among children, adolescents and young adults in a transitioning population, South Africa, 2008-15

Background

There is a global epidemic of overweight and obesity; however, this rate of increase is even greater in some low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). South Africa (SA) is undergoing rapid socioeconomic and demographic changes that have triggered a rapid nutrition transition. The paper focuses on the recent rate of change of body mass index (BMI) among children, adolescents and young adults, further stratified by key sociodemographic factors.

Methods

We analysed mean BMI of 28 247 individuals (including children) from 7301 households by age and year, from anthropometric data from four national cross-sectional (repeated panel) surveys using non-linear fitted curves and associated 95% confidence intervals.

Results

From 2008 to 2015, there was rapid rise in mean BMI in the 6-25 age band, with the highest risk (3-4+ BMI unit increase) among children aged 8-10 years. The increase was largely among females in urban areas and of middle-high socioeconomic standing. Prominent gains were also observed in certain rural areas, with extensive geographical heterogeneity across the country.

Conclusions

We have demonstrated a major deviation from the current understanding of patterns of BMI increase, with a rate of increase substantially greater in the developing world context compared with the global pattern. This population-wide effect will have major consequences for national development as the epidemic of related non-communicable disease unfolds, and will overtax the national health care budget. Our refined understanding highlights that risks are further compounded for certain groups/places, and emphasizes that urgent geographical and population-targeted interventions are necessary. These interventions could include a sugar tax, clearer food labelling, revised school feeding programmes and mandatory bans on unhealthy food marketing to children.The scenario unfolding in South Africa will likely be followed in other LMICs.

A tax on sugar sweetened beverages in Colombia: Estimating the impact on overweight and obesity prevalence across socio economic levels

Colombia has a high prevalence of overweight (56%) and obesity (19%) among adults and is experiencing a growing trend in the prevalence of associated chronic conditions. Evidence suggests that sugar sweetened beverages (SSB) are associated to overweight/obesity, and that taxes on these beverages could reduce their associated health consequences. This paper assesses the potential effect of different levels of a SSB tax in Colombia on overweight and obesity prevalence. Using peer-reviewed local data on own-price elasticity of SSB, we applied a comparative risk assessment strategy to simulate the effect of the SSB tax on a nationally representative nutritional survey with 7140 adults in 2010 (ENSIN, 2010). Our results varied depending on the tax scenario, pass-through assumption and household socio economic strata (SES). We found that among individuals belonging to lower SES households, the SSB tax would reduce overweight and obesity between 1.5-4.9 and 1.1-2.4 percentage points (p < 0.05), respectively. Among individuals belonging to higher SES households, we found no statistically significant effects on obesity, and a reduction on overweight prevalence between 2.9 and 3.9 percentage points (p < 0.05). In the most conservative scenario (40% pass-through), a tax rate of at least 75 cents of Colombian peso (0.75 COP) per milliliter (24% of the average price) is needed to have statistically significant effects on both overweight and obesity prevalence among lower SES households. The results of this study suggest that a SSB tax could reduce the overweight and obesity prevalence in Colombia, especially among lower SES households. This study shows that SSB taxes have a particularly beneficial effect in the most vulnerable population. Additional social and individual benefits, or individual costs arising from the tax are not assessed in this research, implying that even larger health gains could be observed.

Fiscal policy to improve diets and prevent noncommunicable diseases: from recommendations to action

The World Health Organization has recommended that Member States consider taxing energy-dense beverages and foods and/or subsidizing nutrient-rich foods to improve diets and prevent noncommunicable diseases. Numerous countries have either implemented taxes on energy-dense beverages and foods or are considering the implementation of such taxes. However, several major challenges to the implementation of fiscal policies to improve diets and prevent noncommunicable diseases remain. Some of these challenges relate to the cross-sectoral nature of the relevant interventions. For example, as health and economic policy-makers have different administrative concerns, performance indicators and priorities, they often consider different forms of evidence in their decision-making. In this paper, we describe the evidence base for diet-related interventions based on fiscal policies and consider the key questions that need to be asked by both health and economic policy-makers. From the health sector's perspective, there is most evidence for the impact of taxes and subsidies on diets, with less evidence on their impacts on body weight or health. We highlight the importance of scope, the role of industry, the use of revenue and regressive taxes in informing policy decisions.