Augmented backward elimination: a pragmatic and purposeful way to develop statistical models

Radiotherapy protocol compliance in routine clinical practice for patients with stages I-III non-small-cell lung cancer

INTRODUCTION

Despite the availability of radiotherapy treatment protocols for lung cancer, considerable treatment variation occurs in clinical practice. This study assessed compliance with a radiotherapy protocol for the treatment of patients with stages I-III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in routine clinical practice and to identify factors that were associated with compliance.

METHODS

The Cancer Institute New South Wales eviQ treatment protocol for external beam radiotherapy of stages I-III NSCLC was taken as the reference to measure compliance. All inoperable patients with stages I-III NSCLC and documented ECOG performance status treated with radiotherapy between 2007 and 2019 at two radiotherapy facilities were available for analysis. Protocol compliance rates were calculated. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models with 23 input factors were used to determine factors significantly associated with compliance. Survival analysis was conducted for both compliant and non-compliant treatments.

RESULTS

Overall, 656 patients met the inclusion criteria. Protocol compliance was 16%. Alternative dose/fractionation was responsible for 49% of non-compliant treatments with 30% receiving an alternative curative fractionation. Five of 23 factors (age at the start of radiotherapy, stage group, ECOG performance status, tumour location and alcoholism history) showed significant associations with protocol compliance on multivariate analysis. There was no significant difference in median survival between patients receiving protocol compliant treatment (15.1 months) and non-compliant treatment (15.6 months).

CONCLUSION

Adherence to the eviQ curative radiotherapy protocol for stages I-III NSCLC was low. Alternative dose/fractionation schemes were the main reason for non-compliance. Protocol compliance was not associated with outcome.

Evaluating variable selection methods for multivariable regression models: A simulation study protocol

Researchers often perform data-driven variable selection when modeling the associations between an outcome and multiple independent variables in regression analysis. Variable selection may improve the interpretability, parsimony and/or predictive accuracy of a model. Yet variable selection can also have negative consequences, such as false exclusion of important variables or inclusion of noise variables, biased estimation of regression coefficients, underestimated standard errors and invalid confidence intervals, as well as model instability. While the potential advantages and disadvantages of variable selection have been discussed in the literature for decades, few large-scale simulation studies have neutrally compared data-driven variable selection methods with respect to their consequences for the resulting models. We present the protocol for a simulation study that will evaluate different variable selection methods: forward selection, stepwise forward selection, backward elimination, augmented backward elimination, univariable selection, univariable selection followed by backward elimination, and penalized likelihood approaches (Lasso, relaxed Lasso, adaptive Lasso). These methods will be compared with respect to false inclusion and/or exclusion of variables, consequences on bias and variance of the estimated regression coefficients, the validity of the confidence intervals for the coefficients, the accuracy of the estimated variable importance ranking, and the predictive performance of the selected models. We consider both linear and logistic regression in a low-dimensional setting (20 independent variables with 10 true predictors and 10 noise variables). The simulation will be based on real-world data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Publishing this study protocol ahead of performing the simulation increases transparency and allows integrating the perspective of other experts into the study design.

Patient outcomes following medical emergency team review on general wards: Development of predictive models

AIM

To develop and internally validate risk prediction models for subsequent clinical deterioration, unplanned ICU admission and death among ward patients following medical emergency team (MET) review.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study of 1500 patients who remained on a general ward following MET review at an Australian quaternary hospital.

METHOD

Logistic regression was used to model (1) subsequent MET review within 48 h, (2) unplanned ICU admission within 48 h and (3) hospital mortality. Models included demographic, clinical and illness severity variables. Model performance was evaluated using discrimination and calibration with optimism-corrected bootstrapped estimates. Findings are reported using the TRIPOD guideline for multivariable prediction models for prognosis or diagnosis. There was no patient or public involvement in the development and conduct of this study.

RESULTS

Within 48 h of index MET review, 8.3% (n = 125) of patients had a subsequent MET review, 7.2% (n = 108) had an unplanned ICU admission and in-hospital mortality was 16% (n = 240). From clinically preselected predictors, models retained age, sex, comorbidity, resuscitation limitation, acuity-dependency profile, MET activation triggers and whether the patient was within 24 h of hospital admission, ICU discharge or surgery. Models for subsequent MET review, unplanned ICU admission, and death had adequate accuracy in development and bootstrapped validation samples.

CONCLUSION

Patients requiring MET review demonstrate complex clinical characteristics and the majority remain on the ward after review for deterioration. A risk score could be used to identify patients at risk of poor outcomes after MET review and support general ward clinical decision-making.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

Our risk calculator estimates risk for patient outcomes following MET review using clinical data available at the bedside. Future validation and implementation could support evidence-informed team communication and patient placement decisions.

A meta-analysis of the relationship between milk protein production and absorbed amino acids and digested energy in dairy cattle

Milk protein production is the largest draw on AA supplies for lactating dairy cattle. Prior NRC predictions of milk protein production have been absorbed protein (MP)-based and used a first-limiting nutrient concept to integrate the effects of energy and protein, which yielded poor accuracy and precision (root mean squared error [RMSE] >21%). Using a meta-data set gathered, various alternative equation forms considering MP, absorbed total EAA, absorbed individual EAA, and digested energy (DE) supplies as additive drivers of production were evaluated, and all were found to be superior in statistical performance to the first limitation approach (RMSE = 14%-15%). Inclusion of DE intake and a quadratic term for MP or absorbed EAA supplies were found to be necessary to achieve intercept estimates (nonproductive protein use) that were similar to the factorial estimates of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2021). The partial linear slope for MP was found to be 0.409, which is consistent with the observed slope bias of -0.34 g/g when a slope of 0.67 was used for MP efficiency in a first-limiting nutrient system. Replacement of MP with the supplies of individual absorbed EAA expressed in grams per day and a common quadratic across the EAA resulted in unbiased predictions with improved statistical performance as compared with MP-based models. Based on Akaike's information criterion and biological consistency, the best equations included absorbed His, Ile, Lys, Met, Thr, the NEAA, and individual DE intakes from fatty acids, NDF, residual OM, and starch. Several also contained a term for absorbed Leu. These equations generally had RMSE of 14.3% and a concordance correlation of 0.76. Based on the common quadratic and individual linear terms, milk protein response plateaus were predicted at approximately 320 g/d of absorbed His, Ile, and Lys; 395 g/d of absorbed Thr; 550 g/d of absorbed Met; and 70 g/d of absorbed Leu. Therefore, responses to each except Leu are almost linear throughout the normal in vivo range. De-aggregation of the quadratic term and parsing to individual absorbed EAA resulted in nonbiological estimates for several EAA indicating over-parameterization. Expression of the EAA as g/100 g total absorbed EAA or as ratios of DE intake and using linear and quadratic terms for each EAA resulted in similar statistical performance, but the solutions had identifiability problems and several nonbiological parameter estimates. The use of ratios also introduced nonlinearity in the independent variables which violates linear regression assumptions. Further screening of the global model using absorbed EAA expressed as grams per day with a common quadratic using an all-models approach, and exhaustive cross-evaluation indicated the parameter estimates for BW, all 4 DE terms, His, Ile, Lys, Met, and the common quadratic term were stable, whereas estimates for Leu and Thr were known with less certainty. Use of independent and additive terms and a quadratic expression in the equation results in variable efficiencies of conversion. The additivity also provides partial substitution among the nutrients. Both of these prevent establishment of fixed nutrient requirements in support of milk protein production.

Risk and protective factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviors among Black female and male youth with depression symptoms - United States, 2004-2019

BACKGROUND

From 2004 to 2019, suicide rates among Black youth increased by 122 % for females and 65 % for males. Guided by the interpersonal theory of suicide, this study explored how perceptions of social support and parental involvement may contribute to suicidal behavior among Black youth aged 12-17 years.

METHODS

Data are from the 2004-2019 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). Multivariable logistic regression with backwards elimination was conducted to determine if characteristics associated with outcomes of interest (i.e., suicidal ideation, made a suicide plan, and made a suicide attempt) differed by sex. The characteristics examined included: age, poverty level, health insurance coverage, currently receiving mental health treatment, grades for last completed semester, parental involvement, frequency of arguments or fights with parents, frequency of fights at school or work, parental attitudes, and availability of emotional support.

RESULTS

Over 400,000 Black youth with depression symptoms reported suicidal thoughts and behaviors (80 % female). Females had increased odds of suicidal ideation and making a plan if they had no one to talk to about serious problems. Males had increased odds of attempting suicide if they reported academic struggles.

LIMITATIONS

This is a cross-sectional study and potential biases may affect generalizability of results.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk and protective factors identified in this study aligned with the interpersonal theory of suicide. Evidence-based interventions that focus on increasing connectedness and self-esteem may be effective for Black youth struggling with suicidal ideation. Preventing suicide requires a comprehensive approach including prevention strategies for individuals, families, and communities.

Adipokines and Myokines as Markers of Malnutrition and Sarcopenia in Patients Receiving Kidney Replacement Therapy: An Observational, Cross-Sectional Study

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is linked to an elevated risk of malnutrition and sarcopenia, contributing to the intricate network of CKD-related metabolic disorders. Adipokines and myokines are markers and effectors of sarcopenia and nutritional status. The aim of this study was to assess whether the adipokine-myokine signature in patients on kidney replacement therapy could help identify malnutrition and sarcopenia. The study involved three groups: 84 hemodialysis (HD) patients, 44 peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients, and 52 kidney transplant recipients (KTR). Mean age was 56.1 ± 16.3 years. Malnutrition was defined using the 7-Point Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) and the Malnutrition-Inflammation Score (MIS). Sarcopenia was diagnosed based on reduced handgrip strength (HGS) and diminished muscle mass. Concentrations of adipokines and myokines were determined using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). 32.8% of all study participants were identified as malnourished and 20.6% had sarcopenia. For malnutrition, assessed using the 7-Point SGA, in ROC analysis albumin (area under the curve (AUC) 0.67 was the best single biomarker identified. In dialysis patients, myostatin (AUC 0.79) and IL-6 (AUC 0.67) had a high discrimination value for sarcopenia, and we were able to develop a prediction model for sarcopenia, including age, albumin, adiponectin, and myostatin levels, with an AUC of 0.806 (95% CI: 0.721-0.891). Adipokines and myokines appear to be useful laboratory markers for assessing malnutrition and sarcopenia. The formula we propose could contribute to a better understanding of sarcopenia and potentially lead to more effective interventions and management strategies for dialysis patients.

Islet Isolation Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Total Pancreatectomy With Islet Autotransplantation in the POST Consortium

BACKGROUND

In total pancreatectomy with islet autotransplantation (TPIAT), a greater number of islets transplanted produces more favorable outcomes. We aimed to determine predictors of islet isolation outcomes.

METHODS

We investigated factors associated with islet isolation outcomes expressed as islet number (IN), islet equivalents (IEQ; standardized to an islet with 150 μm diameter), IN/kg, or IEQ/kg using data from the multicenter Prospective Observational Study of TPIAT. Single-predictor linear regression was used to estimate the association of individual patient and disease characteristics with islet isolation outcomes, and augmented backward elimination was used to select variables to include in multivariable analyses.

RESULTS

In multivariable analyses, only elevated hemoglobin A1c was associated with worse outcomes for all measures (P < 0.001 for all). Total IEQ obtained for transplant was higher for participants with Hispanic ethnicity (P = 0.002) or overweight status pre-TPIAT (P < 0.001) and lower with non-White race (P = 0.03), genetic pancreatitis (P = 0.02), history of lateral pancreaticojejunostomy (P = 0.03), and presence of atrophy (P = 0.006) or ductal changes (P = 0.014) on imaging. IEQ/kg was higher in females (P = 0.01) and Hispanic participants (P = 0.046) and generally lower with older age (nonlinear association, P < 0.001) and pancreatic atrophy (P < 0.001) on imaging. Total IN and IN/kg showed trends similar, but not identical, to IEQ and IEQ/kg, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient demographics and certain pancreatic disease features were associated with outcomes from islet isolation. Hemoglobin A1c before TPIAT was the metabolic testing measure most strongly associated with islet isolation results.

Ensemble machine learning for predicting in-hospital mortality in Asian women with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI)

The accurate prediction of in-hospital mortality in Asian women after ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) remains a crucial issue in medical research. Existing models frequently neglect this demographic's particular attributes, resulting in poor treatment outcomes. This study aims to improve the prediction of in-hospital mortality in multi-ethnic Asian women with STEMI by employing both base and ensemble machine learning (ML) models. We centred on the development of demographic-specific models using data from the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Disease Database spanning 2006 to 2016. Through a careful iterative feature selection approach that included feature importance and sequential backward elimination, significant variables such as systolic blood pressure, Killip class, fasting blood glucose, beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE), and oral hypoglycemic medications were identified. The findings of our study revealed that ML models with selected features outperformed the conventional Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) Risk score, with area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.60 to 0.93 versus TIMI's AUC of 0.81. Remarkably, our best-performing ensemble ML model was surpassed by the base ML model, support vector machine (SVM) Linear with SVM selected features (AUC: 0.93, CI: 0.89-0.98 versus AUC: 0.91, CI: 0.87-0.96). Furthermore, the women-specific model outperformed a non-gender-specific STEMI model (AUC: 0.92, CI: 0.87-0.97). Our findings demonstrate the value of women-specific ML models over standard approaches, emphasizing the importance of continued testing and validation to improve clinical care for women with STEMI.

Pneumocystis pneumonia in French intensive care units in 2013-2019: mortality and immunocompromised conditions

PURPOSE

The recent epidemiology of Pneumocystis pneumonia (PCP) requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission and the associated spectrum of immunocompromising conditions are poorly described.

METHODS

We analyzed all adult PCP cases admitted to French ICUs via the French medical database system (PMSI), over the period from 2013 to 2019.

RESULTS

French ICUs admitted a total of 4055 adult patients with PCP. Among all hospitalized PCP cases, the proportion requiring ICU admission increased from 17.8 in 2014 to 21.3% in 2019 (P < 0.001). The incidence of severe PCP rose from 0.85 in 2013 to 1.32/100,000 adult inhabitants in 2019 (P < 0.0001), primarily due to the proportion of HIV-negative patients that increased from 60.6% to 74.4% (P < 0.0001). Meanwhile, the annual number of severe PCP cases among patients with HIV infection remained stable over the years. In-hospital mortality of severe PCP cases was 28.5% in patients with HIV infection and 49.7% in patients without. Multivariable logistic analysis showed that patients with HIV infection had a lower adjusted risk of death than patients without HIV infection (Odds Ratio [OR]: 0.30, 95% confidence interval [95CI]: 0.17-0.55). Comorbidities or conditions strongly associated with hospital mortality included the patient's age, Simplified Acute Physiologic Score II, congestive heart failure, coagulopathy, solid organ cancer, and cirrhosis. A vast array of autoimmune inflammatory diseases affected 19.9% of HIV-negative patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of PCP cases requiring ICU admission in France has risen sharply. While the yearly count of severe PCP cases in HIV-infected patients has remained steady, this rise predominantly affects cancer patients, with a recent surge observed in patients with autoimmune inflammatory diseases, affecting one in five individuals.

Association between Sleep Disordered Breathing and Neonatal Outcomes in Nulliparous Individuals

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to determine whether objectively measured sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) during pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of adverse neonatal outcomes in a cohort of nulliparous individuals.

STUDY DESIGN

Secondary analysis of the nuMom2b sleep disordered breathing substudy was performed. Individuals underwent in-home sleep studies for SDB assessment in early (6-15 weeks' gestation) and mid-pregnancy (22-31 weeks' gestation). SDB was defined as an apnea-hypopnea index ≥5 events/h at either time point. The primary outcome was a composite outcome of respiratory distress syndrome, transient tachypnea of the newborn, or receipt of respiratory support, treated hyperbilirubinemia or hypoglycemia, large-for-gestational age, seizures treated with medications or confirmed by electroencephalography, confirmed sepsis, or neonatal death. Individuals were categorized into (1) early pregnancy SDB (6-15 weeks' gestation), (2) new onset mid-pregnancy SDB (22-31 weeks' gestation), and (3) no SDB. Log-binomial regression was used to calculate adjusted risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) representing the association.

RESULTS

Among 2,106 participants, 3% (n = 75) had early pregnancy SDB and 5.7% (n = 119) developed new-onset mid-pregnancy SDB. The incidence of the primary outcome was higher in the offspring of individuals with early (29.3%) and new onset mid-pregnancy SDB (30.3%) compared with individuals with no SDB (17.8%). After adjustment for maternal age, chronic hypertension, pregestational diabetes, and body mass index, new onset mid-pregnancy SDB conferred increased risk (RR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.94), where there was no longer statistically significant association between early pregnancy SDB and the primary outcome.

CONCLUSION

New onset, mid-pregnancy SDB is independently associated with neonatal morbidity.

KEY POINTS

· SDB is a common condition impacting pregnancy with known maternal risks.. · Objectively defined SDB in pregnancy was associated with a composite of adverse neonatal outcomes.. · New onset SDB in mid pregnancy conferred statistically significant increased risk..

Multidisciplinary analysis of cancer-related fatigue at the time of diagnosis: preliminary results of the BIOCARE FActory cohort

PURPOSE

Cancer-related fatigue (CRF) is a common side effect of cancer and cancer treatment that significantly impairs the quality of life and can persist for years after treatment completion. Although fatigue is often associated with cancer treatment, it is also a result of the disease itself, even before intervention. CRF at the time of diagnosis may affect treatment timing or completion and is a consistent predictor of post-treatment fatigue at any time. The mechanisms underlying CRF are multidimensional and not well understood, particularly at the time of diagnosis.

METHODS

Sixty-five breast cancer patients at the time of diagnosis were included. The participants completed self-assessment questionnaires about CRF, sleep disturbances, and emotional symptoms and wore an accelerometer to assess levels of spontaneous physical activity and sleep quality. During the experimental session, the participants underwent cognitive, neuromuscular, and exercise metabolism evaluations.

RESULTS

Using augmented backward elimination regression, this study found that emotional symptoms and perceived sleep disturbances were the strongest predictors of CRF (adjusted r2 = 0.51). Neuromuscular fatigability and sleep disturbance were also associated with physical dimensions, whereas cognitive performance was associated with cognitive dimensions.

CONCLUSION

At the time of diagnosis, emotional and cognitive dimensions are over-represented compared to the general population, and specific subdimensions have specific predictors that support the idea of distinct mechanisms. Evaluating CRF subdimensions and their potential mechanisms at the time of diagnosis would be particularly relevant for identifying high-risk patients and offering them appropriate interventions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04391543) in May, 2020.

Determinants of public institutional births in India: An analysis using the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) factsheet data

Background

Institutional births ensure deliveries happen under the supervision of skilled healthcare personnel in an enabling environment. For countries like India, with high neonatal and maternal mortalities, achieving 100% coverage of institutional births is a top policy priority. In this respect, public health institutions have a key role, given that they remain the preferred choice by most of the population, owing to the existing barriers to healthcare access. While research in this domain has focused on private health institutions, there are limited studies, especially in the Indian context, that look at the enablers of institutional births in public health facilities. In this study, we look to identify the significant predictors of institutional birth in public health facilities in India.

Method

We rely on the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) factsheet data for analysis. Our dependent variable (DV) in this study is the % of institutional births in public health facilities. We first use Welch's t-test to determine if there is any significant difference between urban and rural areas in terms of the DV. We then use multiple linear regression and partial F-test to identify the best-fit model that predicts the variation in the DV. We generate two models in this study and use Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and adjusted R2 values to identify the best-fit model.

Results

We find no significant difference between urban and rural areas (P = 0.02, α =0.05) regarding the mean % of institutional births in public health facilities. The best-fit model is an interaction model with a moderate effect size (Adjusted2 = 0.35) and an AIC of 179.93, lower than the competitive model (AIC = 183.56). We find household health insurance (β = -0.29) and homebirth conducted under the supervision of skilled healthcare personnel (β = -0.56) to be significant predictors of institutional births in public facilities in India. Additionally, we observe low body mass index (BMI) and obesity to have a synergistic impact on the DV. Our findings show that the interaction between low BMI and obesity has a strong negative influence (β = -0.61) on institutional births in public health facilities in India.

Conclusion

Providing households with health insurance coverage may not improve the utilisation of public health facilities for deliveries in India, where other barriers to public healthcare access exist. Therefore, it is important to look at interventions that minimise the existing barriers to access. While the ultimate objective from a policy perspective should be achieving 100% coverage of institutional births in the long run, a short-term strategy makes sense in the Indian context, especially to manage the complications arising during births outside an institutional setting.

Patient-reported sleep and physical function during and after hospitalization

PURPOSE

Poor sleep is associated with morbidity and mortality in the community; however, the health impact of poor sleep during and after hospitalization is poorly characterized. Our purpose was to describe trends in patient-reported sleep and physical function during and after hospitalization and evaluate sleep as a predictor of function after discharge.

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis of trial data with 232 adults followed for 3months after hospital discharge. Main measures were patient-reported surveys on sleep (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index) and physical function (Katz Activities of Daily Living, Lawton Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, and Nagi Mobility Scale) were collected during hospitalization and at 1, 5, 9, and 13weeks postdischarge.

RESULTS

Patient-reported sleep declined significantly during hospitalization and remained worse for 3months postdischarge (median Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index=8 vs. 6, p < .001). In parallel, mobility declined significantly from baseline and remained worse at each follow-up time (median Nagi score=2 vs. 0, p < .001). Instrumental activities of daily living similarly decreased during and after hospitalization, but basic activities of daily living were unaffected. In adjusted time-series logistic regression models, the odds of mobility impairment were 1.48 times higher for each 1-point increase in Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score over time (95% CI 1.27-1.71, p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patient-reported sleep worsened during hospitalization, did not improve significantly for 3months after hospitalization, and poor sleep was a significant predictor of functional impairment over this time. Sleep dysfunction that begins with hospitalization may persist and prevent functional recovery after discharge.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The primary study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03321279.

Questionnaires About the End of Life for Cancer Patients - Is the Response Burden Acceptable?

CONTEXT

Research about the end of life with the help of patient-reported outcomes in vulnerable populations such as cancer patients is needed but is potentially burdensome and can therefore raise concerns.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the response burden due to questionnaires about the end of life in cancer patients and to explore associations with individual variables.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional design response burden was assessed using a six-item instrument after completion of a survey that concerned the end of life. Associations with age, gender, type of care (curative/palliative), years since diagnosis, distress, depression, anxiety, death anxiety, readiness for end-of-life conversations, and readiness for advance care planning were explored via correlational analyses and multiple regressions. Burden due to the topic of end-of-life and completing questionnaires in general was compared.

RESULTS

A total of 269 cancer patients (mean age 61.4 (SD =12.3); 59.5% male; 58.4% in palliative care) completed the survey in a German hospital. The majority did not report response burden; 29.7% reported at least some burden due to study participation. The multiple regression (F [10,26] = 9.97, p < 0.001) indicated that stable predictors of response burden were higher death anxiety (ß = 0.4), lower readiness to talk about one's end of life (ß = -0.34) and higher age (ß = 0.23). No additional subjective burden due to the topic of end-of-life was reported.

CONCLUSION

The reported response burden seems acceptable since it was generally low. However, a subgroup did report some burden. Minimising burden and enhancing participants' benefits without compromising the research quality should further influence study designs in this field.

Data analytics approach for short- and long-term mortality prediction following acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and Unstable Angina (UA) in Asians

BACKGROUND

Traditional risk assessment tools often lack accuracy when predicting the short- and long-term mortality following a non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) or Unstable Angina (UA) in specific population.

OBJECTIVE

To employ machine learning (ML) and stacked ensemble learning (EL) methods in predicting short- and long-term mortality in Asian patients diagnosed with NSTEMI/UA and to identify the associated features, subsequently evaluating these findings against established risk scores.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the National Cardiovascular Disease Database for Malaysia (2006-2019), representing a diverse NSTEMI/UA Asian cohort. Algorithm development utilized in-hospital records of 9,518 patients, 30-day data from 7,133 patients, and 1-year data from 7,031 patients. This study utilized 39 features, including demographic, cardiovascular risk, medication, and clinical features. In the development of the stacked EL model, four base learner algorithms were employed: eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naive Bayes (NB), and Random Forest (RF), with the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) serving as the meta learner. Significant features were chosen and ranked using ML feature importance with backward elimination. The predictive performance of the algorithms was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) as a metric. Validation of the algorithms was conducted against the TIMI for NSTEMI/UA using a separate validation dataset, and the net reclassification index (NRI) was subsequently determined.

RESULTS

Using both complete and reduced features, the algorithm performance achieved an AUC ranging from 0.73 to 0.89. The top-performing ML algorithm consistently surpassed the TIMI risk score for in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year predictions (with AUC values of 0.88, 0.88, and 0.81, respectively, all p < 0.001), while the TIMI scores registered significantly lower at 0.55, 0.54, and 0.61. This suggests the TIMI score tends to underestimate patient mortality risk. The net reclassification index (NRI) of the best ML algorithm for NSTEMI/UA patients across these periods yielded an NRI between 40-60% (p < 0.001) relative to the TIMI NSTEMI/UA risk score. Key features identified for both short- and long-term mortality included age, Killip class, heart rate, and Low-Molecular-Weight Heparin (LMWH) administration.

CONCLUSIONS

In a broad multi-ethnic population, ML approaches outperformed conventional TIMI scoring in classifying patients with NSTEMI and UA. ML allows for the precise identification of unique characteristics within individual Asian populations, improving the accuracy of mortality predictions. Continuous development, testing, and validation of these ML algorithms holds the promise of enhanced risk stratification, thereby revolutionizing future management strategies and patient outcomes.

A comparison of full model specification and backward elimination of potential confounders when estimating marginal and conditional causal effects on binary outcomes from observational data

A common view in epidemiology is that automated confounder selection methods, such as backward elimination, should be avoided as they can lead to biased effect estimates and underestimation of their variance. Nevertheless, backward elimination remains regularly applied. We investigated if and under which conditions causal effect estimation in observational studies can improve by using backward elimination on a prespecified set of potential confounders. An expression was derived that quantifies how variable omission relates to bias and variance of effect estimators. Additionally, 3960 scenarios were defined and investigated by simulations comparing bias and mean squared error (MSE) of the conditional log odds ratio, log(cOR), and the marginal log risk ratio, log(mRR), between full models including all prespecified covariates and backward elimination of these covariates. Applying backward elimination resulted in a mean bias of 0.03 for log(cOR) and 0.02 for log(mRR), compared to 0.56 and 0.52 for log(cOR) and log(mRR), respectively, for a model without any covariate adjustment, and no bias for the full model. In less than 3% of the scenarios considered, the MSE of the log(cOR) or log(mRR) was slightly lower (max 3%) when backward elimination was used compared to the full model. When an initial set of potential confounders can be specified based on background knowledge, there is minimal added value of backward elimination. We advise not to use it and otherwise to provide ample arguments supporting its use.

Clinical Predictors of Cisplatin Chemoradiation-Induced Ototoxicity in HPV-Positive Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Cisplatin-based chemoradiation is a standard treatment for many patients with human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), an etiologically distinct subset of head and neck cancer. Although associated with good long-term survival, clinical risk factors for ototoxicity have been understudied in this population. This study aimed to evaluate clinical predictors associated with ototoxicity in HPV-positive OPSCC patients treated with cisplatin chemoradiation.

METHODS

This retrospective case-control study included 201 adult patients (>18 years) with histologically confirmed HPV-positive OPSCC who received cisplatin chemoradiation as their primary treatment from 2001 and 2019 at a single tertiary cancer center. Ototoxicity was determined using baseline and follow-up audiometry and the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v5.0 grading criteria (Grade ≥2). Multivariable logistic regression [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)] identified significant predictors that increased the odds of ototoxicity.

RESULTS

A total of 201 patients [165 males; median (IQR) age, 57 (11) years] were included in the study. The incidence of ototoxicity in the worst ear was 56.2%, with the greatest hearing loss occurring at high frequencies (4-8 kHz), resulting in a loss of 12.5 dB at 4 to 6 kHz and 20 dB at 6 to 8 kHz. High-dose cisplatin administration compared to weekly administration [aOR 4.93 (95% CI: 1.84-14.99), P = .003], a higher mean cochlear radiation dose [aOR 1.58 (95% CI: 1.12-2.30), P = .01], smoking history [aOR 2.89 (95% CI: 1.51-5.63), P = .001], and a 10 year increase in age [aOR 2.07 (95% CI: 1.25-3.52), P = .006] were each independently associated with increased odds of ototoxicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical predictors of ototoxicity in HPV-positive OPSCC patients treated with cisplatin-based chemoradiation include the use of a high-dose cisplatin regimen, higher cochlear radiation doses, a history of smoking, and older age. With the rising incidence of this malignancy in Western countries and overall improved survivorship, our research motivates future studies into risk stratification and earlier interventions to mitigate and reduce the risk of ototoxicity.

Automated Electronic Frailty Index-Identified Frailty Status and Associated Postsurgical Adverse Events

Importance

Electronic frailty index (eFI) is an automated electronic health record (EHR)-based tool that uses a combination of clinical encounters, diagnosis codes, laboratory workups, medications, and Medicare annual wellness visit data as markers of frailty status. The association of eFI with postanesthesia adverse outcomes has not been evaluated.

Objective

To examine the association of frailty, calculated as eFI at the time of the surgical procedure and categorized as fit, prefrail, or frail, with adverse events after elective noncardiac surgery.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was conducted at a tertiary care academic medical center in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. The cohort included patients 55 years or older who underwent noncardiac surgery of at least 1 hour in duration between October 1, 2017, and June 30, 2021.

Exposure

Frailty calculated by the eFI tool. Preoperative eFI scores were calculated based on available data 1 day prior to the procedure and categorized as fit (eFI score: ≤0.10), prefrail (eFI score: >0.10 to ≤0.21), or frail (eFI score: >0.21).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was a composite of the following 8 adverse component events: 90-item Patient Safety Indicators (PSI 90) score, hospital-acquired conditions, in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality, 30-day readmission, 30-day emergency department visit after surgery, transfer to a skilled nursing facility after surgery, or unexpected intensive care unit admission after surgery. Secondary outcomes were each of the component events of the composite.

Results

Of the 33 449 patients (median [IQR] age, 67 [61-74] years; 17 618 females [52.7%]) included, 11 563 (34.6%) were classified as fit, 15 928 (47.6%) as prefrail, and 5958 (17.8%) as frail. Using logistic regression models that were adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, and comorbidity burden, patients with prefrail (odds ratio [OR], 1.24; 95% CI, 1.18-1.30; P < .001) and frail (OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.58-1.82; P < .001) statuses were more likely to experience postoperative adverse events compared with patients with a fit status. Subsequent adjustment for all other potential confounders or covariates did not alter this association. For every increase in eFI of 0.03 units, the odds of a composite of postoperative adverse events increased by 1.06 (95% CI, 1.03-1.13; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found that frailty, as measured by an automatically calculated index integrated within the EHR, was associated with increased risk of adverse events after noncardiac surgery. Deployment of eFI tools may support screening and possible risk modification, especially in patients who undergo high-risk surgery.

Gender, sexual orientation identity, and initiation of amphetamine injecting among people who inject drugs: Examination of an expanding drug era in Montreal, Canada, 2011-19

BACKGROUND

Amphetamine injection is expanding in North America and has been associated with male homosexuality among people who inject drugs (PWID). Applying subcultural evolution theory, we examined overall and gender-stratified trends in amphetamine injection and assessed sexual orientation as a gender-specific predictor of initiation among PWID in Montreal, Canada.

METHODS

Data were from HEPCO, an open prospective cohort of PWID. Gender and sexual orientation were self-identified at enrolment. Interviewer-administered questionnaires at three-monthly (HCV RNA-negative participants) or yearly (RNA-positive) intervals captured past three-month amphetamine injection and covariates. Annual prevalence and linear trends in amphetamine injection were estimated using GEE. Incidence was computed among naïve individuals and hazard ratios for initiation estimated using gender-stratified, time-varying Cox regression models.

RESULTS

803 participants contributed 8096 observations between March 2011 and December 2019. Annual prevalence of amphetamine injecting increased from 3.25% [95%CI: 2.06-4.43%] to 12.7% [9.50-16.0] (trend p<0.001). Bivariate Cox regression models suggested similar and divergent predictors of initiation by gender. Incidence was 3.27 per 100 person-years [95%CI: 2.51-4.18] among heterosexual men, 7.18 [3.50-13.2] among gay/bisexual men, 1.93 [0.78-4.02] among heterosexual women and 5.30 [1.69-12.8] among gay/bisexual women. Among men, gay/bisexual identity doubled risk of initiation after adjusting for age, ethnicity, calendar year (aHR 2.16 [1.07-4.36]) and additional covariates (2.56 [1.24-5.30]). Among women, evidence for an association with gay/bisexual identity was inconclusive (aHR 2.63 [0.62-11.2]) and sample size precluded further adjustment CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of amphetamine injection among PWID increased four-fold from 2011 to 2019, with elevated risk of initiation in gay and bisexual men.

Interpretable Machine Learning Methods for Monitoring Polymer Degradation in Extrusion of Polylactic Acid

This work investigates real-time monitoring of extrusion-induced degradation in different grades of PLA across a range of process conditions and machine set-ups. Data on machine settings together with in-process sensor data, including temperature, pressure, and near-infrared (NIR) spectra, are used as inputs to predict the molecular weight and mechanical properties of the product. Many soft sensor approaches based on complex spectral data are essentially 'black-box' in nature, which can limit industrial acceptability. Hence, the focus here is on identifying an optimal approach to developing interpretable models while achieving high predictive accuracy and robustness across different process settings. The performance of a Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) approach was compared to more common dimension reduction and regression approaches including Partial Least Squares (PLS), iterative PLS (i-PLS), Principal Component Regression (PCR), ridge regression, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), and Random Forest (RF). It is shown that for medical-grade PLA processed under moisture-controlled conditions, accurate prediction of molecular weight is possible over a wide range of process conditions and different machine settings (different nozzle types for downstream fibre spinning) with an RFE-RF algorithm. Similarly, for the prediction of yield stress, RFE-RF achieved excellent predictive performance, outperforming the other approaches in terms of simplicity, interpretability, and accuracy. The features selected by the RFE model provide important insights to the process. It was found that change in molecular weight was not an important factor affecting the mechanical properties of the PLA, which is primarily related to the pressure and temperature at the latter stages of the extrusion process. The temperature at the extruder exit was also the most important predictor of degradation of the polymer molecular weight, highlighting the importance of accurate melt temperature control in the process. RFE not only outperforms more established methods as a soft sensor method, but also has significant advantages in terms of computational efficiency, simplicity, and interpretability. RFE-based soft sensors are promising for better quality control in processing thermally sensitive polymers such as PLA, in particular demonstrating for the first time the ability to monitor molecular weight degradation during processing across various machine settings.

Clinical spectrum and prognostic impact of cancer in critically ill patients with HIV: a multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Both AIDS-defining and non-AIDS-defining cancers (ADC/NADC) predispose people living with HIV (PLHIV) to critical illnesses. The objective of this multicentre study was to investigate the prognostic impact of ADC and NADC in PLHIV admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

All PLHIV admitted over the 2015-2020 period in 12 university-affiliated ICUs in France were included in the study cohort. The effect of ADC and NADC on in-hospital mortality (primary study endpoint) was measured through logistic regression with augmented backward elimination of potential independent variables. The association between ADC/NADC and treatment limitation decision (TLD) during the ICU stay (secondary study endpoint) was analysed. One-year mortality in patients discharged alive from the index hospital admission (exploratory study endpoint) was compared between those with ADC, NADC or no cancer.

RESULTS

Amongst the 939 included PLHIV (median age, 52 [43-59] years; combination antiretroviral therapy, 74.4%), 97 (10.3%) and 106 (11.3%) presented with an active NADC (mostly lung and intestinal neoplasms) and an active ADC (predominantly AIDS-defining non-Hodgkin lymphoma), respectively. Inaugural admissions were common. Bacterial sepsis and non-infectious neoplasm-related complications accounted for most of admissions in these subgroups. Hospital mortality was 12.4% in patients without cancer, 30.2% in ADC patients and 45.4% in NADC patients (P < 0.0001). NADC (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 7.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.07-12.05) and ADC (aOR, 3.11; 95% CI 1.76-5.51) were independently associated with in-hospital death after adjustment on severity and frailty markers. The prevalence of TLD was 8.0% in patients without cancer, 17.9% in ADC patients and 33.0% in NADC patients (P < 0.0001)-organ failures and non-neoplastic comorbidities were less often considered in patients with cancer. One-year mortality in survivors of the index hospital admission was 7.8% in patients without cancer, 17.0% in ADC patients and 33.3% in NADC patients (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

NADC and ADC are equally prevalent, stand as a leading argument for TLD, and strongly predict in-hospital death in the current population of PLHIV requiring ICU admission.

Development and initial validation of a multivariable predictive Early Adversity Scale for Schizophrenia (EAS-Sz) using register data to quantify environmental risk for adult schizophrenia diagnosis after childhood exposure to adversity

BACKGROUND

Additional to a child's genetic inheritance, environmental exposures are associated with schizophrenia. Many are broadly described as childhood adversity; modelling the combined impact of these is complex. We aimed to develop and validate a scale on childhood adversity, independent of genetic and other environmental liabilities, for use in schizophrenia risk analysis models, using data from cross-linked electronic health and social services registers.

METHOD

A cohort of N = 428 970 Western Australian children born 1980-2001 was partitioned into three samples: scale development sample (N = 171 588), and two scale validation samples (each N = 128 691). Measures of adversity were defined before a child's 10th birthday from five domains: discontinuity in parenting, family functioning, family structure, area-level socioeconomic/demographic environment and family-level sociodemographic status. Using Cox proportional hazards modelling of follow-up time from 10th birthday to schizophrenia diagnosis or censorship, weighted combinations of measures were firstly developed into scales for each domain, then combined into a final global scale. Discrimination and calibration performance were validated using Harrell's C and graphical assessment respectively.

RESULTS

A weighted combination of 42 measures of childhood adversity was derived from the development sample. Independent application to identical measures in validation samples produced Harrell's Concordance statistics of 0.656 and 0.624. Average predicted time to diagnosis curves corresponded with 95% CI limits of observed Kaplan-Meier curves in five prognostic categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Our Early Adversity Scale for Schizophrenia (EAS-Sz), the first using routinely collected register data, predicts schizophrenia diagnosis above chance, and has potential to help untangle contributions of genetic and environmental liability to schizophrenia risk.

The impact of delay and prehospital factors on acute appendicitis severity in New Zealand children: a national prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Appendicitis is the most common reason children undergo acute general surgery but international, population-level disparities exist. This is hypothesised to be caused by preoperative delay and differential access to surgical care. The impact of prehospital factors on paediatric appendicitis severity in New Zealand is unknown.

METHODS

A prospective, multicentre cohort study with nested parental questionnaire was conducted by a national trainee-led collaborative group. Across 14 participating hospitals, 264 patients aged ≤16 years admitted between January and June 2020 with suspected appendicitis were screened. The primary outcome was the effect of prehospital factors on the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST) anatomical severity grade.

RESULTS

Overall, 182 children had confirmed appendicitis with a median age of 11.6. The rate of complicated appendicitis rate was 38.5% but was significantly higher in rural (44.1%) and Māori children (54.8%). Complicated appendicitis was associated with increased prehospital delay (47.8 h versus 20.1 h; P < 0.001), but not in-hospital delay (11.3 h versus 13.3 h; P = 0.96). Multivariate analysis revealed increased anatomical severity in rural (OR 4.33, 95% CI 1.78-7.25; P < 0.001), and Māori children (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.24-5.75; P = 0.019), as well as in families relying on external travel sources or reporting unfamiliarity with appendicitis symptomology.

CONCLUSION

Prehospital delay and differential access to prehospital determinants of health are associated with increased severity of paediatric appendicitis. This manifested as increased severity of appendicitis in rural and Māori children. Understanding the pre-hospital factors that influence the timing of presentation can better inform health-system improvements.

Institutional Factors Associated with Residents' Malnutrition in Nursing Homes: A Cross-Sectional Study

OBJECTIVES

Malnutrition is frequent in older adults, associated with increased morbidity, mortality, and higher costs. Nursing home residents are especially affected, and evidence on institutional factors associated with malnutrition is limited. We calculated the prevalence of malnutrition in Swiss nursing home residents and investigated which structure and process indicators of nursing homes are associated with residents' malnutrition.

DESIGN

Subanalysis of the Swiss Nursing Homes Human Resources Project 2018, a multicenter, cross-sectional study conducted from 2018 to 2019 in Switzerland.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This study included 76 nursing homes with a total of 5047 residents.

METHODS

Malnutrition was defined as a loss of bodyweight of ≥5% in the last 30 days or ≥10% in the last 180 days. Binomial generalized estimating equations (GEE) were applied to examine the association between malnutrition and structural (staffing ratio, grade mix, presence of a dietician, malnutrition guideline, support during mealtimes) and process indicators (awareness of malnutrition, food administration process). GEE models were adjusted for institutional (profit status, facility size) and specific resident characteristics.

RESULTS

The prevalence of residents with malnutrition was 5%. A higher percentage of units per nursing home having a guideline on prevention and treatment of malnutrition was significantly associated with more residents with weight loss (OR 2.47, 95% CI 1.31-4.66, P = .005). Not having a dietician in a nursing home was significantly associated with a higher rate of residents with weight loss (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.09-2.35, P = .016).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Having a dietician as part of a multidisciplinary team in a nursing home is an important step to address the problem of residents' malnutrition. Further research is needed to clarify the role of a guideline on prevention and treatment of malnutrition to improve the quality of care in nursing homes.

Pharmacotherapy treatment patterns at hospital discharge and clinical outcomes among patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction

Background

This study aimed to assess the prescribing patterns of evidence-based pharmacotherapy and their association with clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in Thailand.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of patients with HFrEF was conducted. Treatment with a β-blocker and renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASIs) with or without mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) at discharge was regarded as guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT). All others were considered non-GDMT. The primary endpoint was the composite of all-cause mortality or heart failure (HF) rehospitalization. Inverse-probability-treatment-weighted adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the treatment effects.

Results

In total, 653 patients with HFrEF (mean age 64.1 ± 14.3 years; 55.9% male) were included. GDMT with β-blockers and RASIs with or without MRAs was prescribed at a rate of 35.4%. During a median of 1-year follow-up, 167 patients (27.5%) had a composite event, 81 patients (13.3%) had all-cause mortality, and 109 patients (18.0%) had HF rehospitalization. Patients treated with GDMT at discharge showed significantly lower rates of the primary endpoint (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.63; 95% CI 0.44-0.89; p = 0.009) compared with patients who did not receive GDMT. The use of GDMT was also associated with a significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.36-0.98; p = 0.045) and HF rehospitalization (adjusted HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.43-0.96; p = 0.031).

Conclusions

For HFrEF treatment, GDMT initiation at hospital discharge was associated with a significantly reduced risk of all-cause mortality and HF rehospitalization. Nevertheless, prescribing GDMT remains underused, and it could be encouraged to improve HF outcomes in real-world settings.

Influenza presentations and use of neuraminidase inhibitors by Australian general practice registrars: a cross-sectional analysis from the ReCEnT study

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to establish prevalence and associations of (1) influenza and influenza-like illness (IILI) presentations to Australian general practice (GP) registrars (trainees) and (2) the use of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) by GP registrars for new presentations of IILI, for the 10 years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia (2010-2019).

DESIGN

This was a cross-sectional analysis of the Registrar Clinical Encounters in Training ongoing inception cohort study of the in-consultation experience and clinical behaviours of GP registrars. Data are collected by individual registrars three times (from 60 consecutive consultations each time) at 6 monthly intervals. Data include diagnoses/problems managed and medicines prescribed, along with multiple other variables. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression was used to establish associations of registrars seeing patients with IILI and of prescribing NAIs for IILI.

SETTING

Teaching practices within the Australian general practitioner specialist vocational training programme. Practices were located in five of the six Australian states (plus one territory).

PARTICIPANTS

GP registrars in each of their three compulsory 6-month GP training terms.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2019, 0.2% of diagnoses/problems seen by registrars were IILI. 15.4% of new IILI presentations were prescribed an NAI. IILI diagnoses were less likely in younger (0-14) and older (65+) age groups, and more likely in an area of higher socioeconomic advantage. There was considerable variation in NAI prescribing between regions. There was no significant association of prescribing NAIs with age or Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander patients.

CONCLUSIONS

IILI presentations were more likely among working-age adults and not among those groups at higher risk. Similarly, high-risk patient groups who would benefit most were not more likely to receive NAIs. The epidemiology and management of IILI has been distorted by the COVID-19 pandemic, but the burden of influenza in vulnerable populations must not be overlooked. Appropriately targeted antiviral therapy with NAIs influences outcomes for vulnerable patients. General practitioners manage the majority of IILI in Australia, and understanding GP IILI presentation and NAI prescribing patterns is a key first step to enabling sound and rational prescribing decisions for better patient outcomes.

High intensity training improves symptoms of central sensitization at six-month follow-up in persons with chronic nonspecific low back pain: Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

High intensity training (HIT) improves disability and physical fitness in persons with chronic nonspecific low back pain (CNSLBP). However, it remains unclear if HIT affects pain processing and psychosocial factors.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate 1) the effects of HIT on symptoms of central sensitization and perceived stress and 2) the relationship of symptoms of central sensitization and perceived stress with therapy success, at six-month follow-up, in persons with CNSLBP.

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis of a previously published randomized controlled trial. Persons with CNSLBP (n = 51, age=43.6y) completed the Central Sensitization Inventory (CSI) and Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) at baseline (PRE) and six months after 12-week of HIT consisting of concurrent exercise therapy (FU). Two groups were formed based on CSI scores (low-CSI/high-CSI). First, linear mixed models were fitted for each outcome, with time and groups as covariates. Multiple comparisons were executed to evaluate group (baseline), time (within-group), and interaction (between-group) effects. Second, correlation and regression analyses were performed to evaluate if baseline and changes in CSI/PSS scores were related to therapy success, operationalized as improvements on disability (Modified Oswestry Disability Index), and pain intensity (Numeric Pain Rating Scale).

RESULTS

Total sample analyses showed a decrease in both CSI and PSS. Within-group analyses showed a decrease of CSI only in the high-CSI group and a decrease of PSS only in the low-CSI group. Between-group analyses showed a pronounced decrease favouring high-CSI (mean difference: 7.9; 95%CI: 2.1, 12.7) and no differences in PSS (mean difference: 0.1; 95%CI: -3.0, 3.2). CSI, but not PSS, was weakly related to therapy success.

CONCLUSION

HIT improves symptoms of central sensitization in persons with CNSLBP. This effect is the largest in persons with clinically relevant baseline CSI scores. HIT also decreases perceived stress.

Improved health-related quality of life after hepatitis C viraemic clearance among people who inject drugs may not be durable

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Chronic infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) has a detrimental impact on health-related quality of life (QoL). Scale-up of HCV direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy among people who inject drugs (PWID) is underway in several countries since the introduction of interferon-free regimens. This study aimed to assess the impact of DAA treatment success on QoL for PWID.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study using two rounds of the Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative, a national anonymous bio-behavioural survey and a longitudinal study involving PWID who underwent DAA therapy.

SETTING

The setting for the cross-sectional study was Scotland (2017-2018, 2019-2020). The setting for the longitudinal study was the Tayside region of Scotland (2019-2021).

PARTICIPANTS

In the cross-sectional study PWID were recruited from services providing injecting equipment (n = 4009). In the longitudinal study, participants were PWID on DAA therapy (n = 83).

MEASUREMENTS

In the cross-sectional study, the association between QoL (measured using the EQ-5D-5L quality of life instrument) and HCV diagnosis and treatment was assessed using multilevel linear regression. In the longitudinal study, QoL was compared at four timepoints using multilevel regression, from treatment commencement until 12 months following commencement.

FINDINGS

In the cross-sectional study, 41% (n = 1618) were ever chronically HCV infected, of whom 78% (n = 1262) were aware of their status and of whom 64% (n = 704) had undergone DAA therapy. There was no evidence for a marked QoL improvement associated with viral clearance among those treated for HCV (B = 0.03; 95% CI, -0.03 to 0.09). In the longitudinal study, improved QoL was observed at the sustained virologic response test timepoint (B = 0.18; 95% CI, 0.10-0.27), but this was not maintained at 12 months following start of treatment (B = 0.02; 95% CI, -0.05 to 0.10).

CONCLUSIONS

Successful direct-acting antiviral therapy for hepatitis C infection may not lead to a durable improvement in quality of life among people who inject drugs, although there may be a transient improvement around the time of sustained virologic response. Economic models of the impact of scaling-up treatment may need to include more conservative quality of life benefits over and above reductions in mortality, disease progression and transmission of infection.

Psychiatric comorbidity in individuals with bipolar disorder: relation with clinical outcomes and functioning

The aim was to assess the lifetime prevalence of psychiatric comorbidity (PC) in Brazilian euthymic individuals with bipolar disorder type I, and investigate its effects on clinical outcomes and functioning. A group of 179 outpatients with BD-I in the recuperation phase were assessed, of whom 75 (41.9%) had PC and 104 (58.1%) had not. Both groups were compared using sociodemographic/clinical questionnaire, Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV axis I and II, Sheehan Disability and Barratt Impulsiveness Scales. Patients with PC presented less religious affiliation, more history of lifetime psychotic symptoms, rapid cycling, suicide attempts, worse scores of functioning, and higher prevalence of personality disorders. Ordinal logistic regression indicated that PC was associated with increased odds of worse levels of disability. Therefore, it could be observed that patients with BD evaluated only in euthymia presented a high mental disorders comorbidity. Considering their burdensome impact, appropriate management is a challenging reality and a crucial factor in reducing morbidity and mortality associated with BD. Further longitudinal studies on their relationship may broaden interventions to reduce patient's suffering.

Factors associated with successful median arcuate ligament release in an international, multi-institutional cohort

OBJECTIVE

Prior research on median arcuate ligament syndrome has been limited to institutional case series, making the optimal approach to median arcuate ligament release (MALR) and resulting outcomes unclear. In the present study, we compared the outcomes of different approaches to MALR and determined the predictors of long-term treatment failure.

METHODS

The Vascular Low Frequency Disease Consortium is an international, multi-institutional research consortium. Data on open, laparoscopic, and robotic MALR performed from 2000 to 2020 were gathered. The primary outcome was treatment failure, defined as no improvement in median arcuate ligament syndrome symptoms after MALR or symptom recurrence between MALR and the last clinical follow-up.

RESULTS

For 516 patients treated at 24 institutions, open, laparoscopic, and robotic MALR had been performed in 227 (44.0%), 235 (45.5%), and 54 (10.5%) patients, respectively. Perioperative complications (ileus, cardiac, and wound complications; readmissions; unplanned procedures) occurred in 19.2% (open, 30.0%; laparoscopic, 8.9%; robotic, 18.5%; P < .001). The median follow-up was 1.59 years (interquartile range, 0.38-4.35 years). For the 488 patients with follow-up data available, 287 (58.8%) had had full relief, 119 (24.4%) had had partial relief, and 82 (16.8%) had derived no benefit from MALR. The 1- and 3-year freedom from treatment failure for the overall cohort was 63.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 59.0%-68.3%) and 51.9% (95% CI, 46.1%-57.3%), respectively. The factors associated with an increased hazard of treatment failure on multivariable analysis included robotic MALR (hazard ratio [HR], 1.73; 95% CI, 1.16-2.59; P = .007), a history of gastroparesis (HR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.09-3.09; P = .023), abdominal cancer (HR, 10.3; 95% CI, 3.06-34.6; P < .001), dysphagia and/or odynophagia (HR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.27-4.69; P = .008), no relief from a celiac plexus block (HR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.00-4.72; P = .049), and an increasing number of preoperative pain locations (HR, 1.12 per location; 95% CI, 1.00-1.25; P = .042). The factors associated with a lower hazard included increasing age (HR, 0.99 per increasing year; 95% CI, 0.98-1.0; P = .012) and an increasing number of preoperative diagnostic gastrointestinal studies (HR, 0.84 per study; 95% CI, 0.74-0.96; P = .012) Open and laparoscopic MALR resulted in similar long-term freedom from treatment failure. No radiographic parameters were associated with differences in treatment failure.

CONCLUSIONS

No difference was found in long-term failure after open vs laparoscopic MALR; however, open release was associated with higher perioperative morbidity. These results support the use of a preoperative celiac plexus block to aid in patient selection. Operative candidates for MALR should be counseled regarding the factors associated with treatment failure and the relatively high overall rate of treatment failure.

Cannabis use as a factor of lower corpulence in hepatitis C-infected patients: results from the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort

Background

Patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are at greater risk of developing metabolic disorders. Obesity is a major risk factor for these disorders, and therefore, managing body weight is crucial. Cannabis use, which is common in these patients, has been associated with lower corpulence in various populations. However, this relationship has not yet been studied in persons with chronic HCV infection.

Methods

Using baseline data from the French ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort, we used binary logistic and multinomial logistic regression models to test for an inverse relationship between cannabis use (former/current) and (i) central obesity (i.e., large waist circumference) and (ii) overweight and obesity (i.e., elevated body mass index (BMI)) in patients from the cohort who had chronic HCV infection. We also tested for relationships between cannabis use and both waist circumference and BMI as continuous variables, using linear regression models.

Results

Among the 6348 participants in the study population, 55% had central obesity, 13.7% had obesity according to their BMI, and 12.4% were current cannabis users. After multivariable adjustment, current cannabis use was associated with lower risk of central obesity (adjusted odds ratio, aOR [95% confidence interval, CI]: 0.45 [0.37–0.55]), BMI-based obesity (adjusted relative risk ratio (aRRR) [95% CI]: 0.27 [0.19–0.39]), and overweight (aRRR [95% CI]: 0.47 [0.38–0.59]). This was also true for former use, but to a lesser extent. Former and current cannabis use were inversely associated with waist circumference and BMI.

Conclusions

We found that former and, to a greater extent, current cannabis use were consistently associated with smaller waist circumference, lower BMI, and lower risks of overweight, obesity, and central obesity in patients with chronic HCV infection. Longitudinal studies are needed to confirm these relationships and to assess the effect of cannabis use on corpulence and liver outcomes after HCV cure.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01953458.

Gestational exposure to bisphenol analogues and kisspeptin levels in pregnant women and their children: A pregnancy-birth cohort study

Gestational exposure to bisphenol analogues (BPs)，especially bisphenol A (BPA), has been associated with adverse pregnancy-related outcomes and altered reproductive development of offspring, but the underlying mechanisms are not well documented. Kisspeptin, a key regulator of reproductive health, could be the potential target for endocrine disrupting compounds like BPs. Among 528 mother-child pairs, we investigated the associations of gestational BPs exposure with kisspeptin levels in two critical life stages, pregnancy and pre-puberty. Maternal BPs and kisspeptin concentrations were measured in urine samples collected in the third trimester. Children's urine samples were collected at 6-year visit and analyzed for kisspeptin levels. Associations were observed between BPA and its alternatives and lower kisspeptin in pregnant women but higher kisspeptin in their children. In contrast, TCBPA was suggestively associated with higher kisspeptin in pregnant women but lower kisspeptin in children. Our study provides the first epidemiologic evidence that gestational exposure to selected BPs may be associated with altered kisspeptin system in both pregnant women and their children, sheds some light on the potential mechanisms underlying the various reproductive health outcomes following gestational BPA exposure, and suggests potential reproductive toxicities of other BPs in humans.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for the early identification of COVID-19 patients at risk of developing common long COVID symptoms

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic demands reliable prognostic models for estimating the risk of long COVID. We developed and validated a prediction model to estimate the probability of known common long COVID symptoms at least 60 days after acute COVID-19.

METHODS

The prognostic model was built based on data from a multicentre prospective Swiss cohort study. Included were adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between February and December 2020 and treated as outpatients, at ward or intensive/intermediate care unit. Perceived long-term health impairments, including reduced exercise tolerance/reduced resilience, shortness of breath and/or tiredness (REST), were assessed after a follow-up time between 60 and 425 days. The data set was split into a derivation and a geographical validation cohort. Predictors were selected out of twelve candidate predictors based on three methods, namely the augmented backward elimination (ABE) method, the adaptive best-subset selection (ABESS) method and model-based recursive partitioning (MBRP) approach. Model performance was assessed with the scaled Brier score, concordance c statistic and calibration plot. The final prognostic model was determined based on best model performance.

RESULTS

In total, 2799 patients were included in the analysis, of which 1588 patients were in the derivation cohort and 1211 patients in the validation cohort. The REST prevalence was similar between the cohorts with 21.6% (n = 343) in the derivation cohort and 22.1% (n = 268) in the validation cohort. The same predictors were selected with the ABE and ABESS approach. The final prognostic model was based on the ABE and ABESS selected predictors. The corresponding scaled Brier score in the validation cohort was 18.74%, model discrimination was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.75 to 0.81), calibration slope was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.78 to 1.06) and calibration intercept was -0.06 (95% CI: -0.22 to 0.09).

CONCLUSION

The proposed model was validated to identify COVID-19-infected patients at high risk for REST symptoms. Before implementing the prognostic model in daily clinical practice, the conduct of an impact study is recommended.

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: Calculating the risk of future heart failure events and death

Objective

We sought to develop a clinical model to identify heart failure patients with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) at highest risk for acute HF events or death.

Methods and results

Between 2010 and 2019, 422 patients with HFpEF were followed. Acute HF events occurred in 190 patients (45%), including 110 (58%) with recurrent hospitalizations. Those with recurrent events had worse 6-min walk test (p < 0.001), higher brain N-terminal prohormone natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP, p < 0.001), and higher New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA, p < 0.001). Overall survival rates in patients with 1 HF event vs > 1 HF events were: at 1-year 91.6 vs. 91.8%, at 3-years 84.7 vs. 68.3% and at 5-years 67.4 vs. 42.7%, respectively (p < 0.04). The Hfpef survivAL hOspitalization (HALO) score revealed best predictive capability for all-cause mortality combining the variables age (p = 0.08), BMI (p = 0.124), NYHA class (p = 0.004), need for diuretic therapy (p = 0.06), left atrial volume index (p = 0.048), systolic pulmonary artery pressure (p = 0.013), NT-proBNP (p = 0.076), and number of prior hospitalizations (p = 0.006). HALO score predicted future HF hospitalizations in an ordinal logistic regression model (OR 3.24, 95% CI: 2.45–4.37, p < 0.001). The score performance was externally validated in 75 HFpEF patients, confirming a strong survival prediction (HR 2.13, 95% CI: 1.30–3.47, p = 0.002).

Conclusions

We developed a model to identify HFpEF patients at increased risk of death and HF hospitalization. NYHA class and recurrent HF hospitalizations were the strongest drivers of outcome.

In-hospital risk stratification algorithm of Asian elderly patients

Limited research has been conducted in Asian elderly patients (aged 65 years and above) for in-hospital mortality prediction after an ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) using Deep Learning (DL) and Machine Learning (ML). We used DL and ML to predict in-hospital mortality in Asian elderly STEMI patients and compared it to a conventional risk score for myocardial infraction outcomes. Malaysia's National Cardiovascular Disease Registry comprises an ethnically diverse Asian elderly population (3991 patients). 50 variables helped in establishing the in-hospital death prediction model. The TIMI score was used to predict mortality using DL and feature selection methods from ML algorithms. The main performance metric was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The DL and ML model constructed using ML feature selection outperforms the conventional risk scoring score, TIMI (AUC 0.75). DL built from ML features (AUC ranging from 0.93 to 0.95) outscored DL built from all features (AUC 0.93). The TIMI score underestimates mortality in the elderly. TIMI predicts 18.4% higher mortality than the DL algorithm (44.7%). All ML feature selection algorithms identify age, fasting blood glucose, heart rate, Killip class, oral hypoglycemic agent, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol as common predictors of mortality in the elderly. In a multi-ethnic population, DL outperformed the TIMI risk score in classifying elderly STEMI patients. ML improves death prediction by identifying separate characteristics in older Asian populations. Continuous testing and validation will improve future risk classification, management, and results.

Airway clearance physiotherapy and health-related quality of life in cystic fibrosis

OBJECTIVE

Airway clearance physiotherapy is recommended in cystic fibrosis, but limited evidence exists to suggest how much treatment is enough. As a secondary analysis of a prior study investigating the safety, efficacy, and participants' perceptions of a novel airway clearance technique, specific cough technique (SCT) compared to forced expiration technique (FET), we aimed to evaluate whether the intervention was associated with changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL).

METHODS

We conducted randomised, controlled individual trials with six adults (N-of-1 RCTs). Each trial included eight weeks of treatment, twice a week, using saline inhalation in horizontal positions, one with SCT and one with FET, in random order. Efficacy was measured by sputum wet weight (g) after each session. Perceived usefulness and preference were self-reported at the end of the study. Lung function was assessed at baseline and at the end of study. HRQoL was measured using the Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire-Revised (CFQ-R) at baseline (week 1) and at completion of the study (week 8). Individual HRQoL scores (0-100) were coded and analysed using CFQ-R Software Program, version 2.0.

RESULTS

Patient-reported outcomes were completed by all subjects. Individual CFQ-R-Respiratory Symptoms Scores (CFQ-R-RSS) showed a positive change, meeting the minimal important difference (MID) ≥ 4 points in five participants and a negative change in one individual. A strong correlation (r = 0.94 (p<0.01) was found between total sputum weight (g) and the positive changes in CFQ-R-RSS, and between changes in lung function and CFQ-R-RSS (r = 0.84 (p = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

The airway clearance intervention was associated with clinically meaningful changes in patient-reported symptoms on the CFQ-R in the majority of the participants. This finding warrants further investigation regarding treatment, duration and frequency. A long-term study may reveal beneficial effects on other clinically meaningful endpoints, such as pulmonary exacerbations, high-resolution computed tomography scores and HRQoL.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov, under the number NCT0 1266473.

Cannabis Use Is Inversely Associated with Overweight and Obesity in Hepatitis B Virus-Infected Patients (ANRS CO22 Hepather Cohort)

Background: Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection may evolve into cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, and this progression may be accelerated by specific risk factors, including overweight and obesity. Although evidence for a protective effect of cannabis use on elevated body weight has been found for other populations, no data are available for HBV-infected patients. Aims: We aimed to identify risk factors (including cannabis use) for overweight and obesity in patients with HBV chronic infection. Methods: Using baseline data from the French ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort, we performed two separate analyses, one using "central obesity" (based on waist circumference) and the other "overweight" and "obesity" (based on body mass index) as outcomes. Logistic and multinomial regressions were used to model central obesity and overweight/obesity, respectively. Results: Among the 3706 patients in the study population, 50.8% had central obesity, 34.7% overweight, and 14.4% obesity. After multivariable adjustment, current cannabis use was associated with a 59% lower risk of central obesity compared with no lifetime use (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI]: 0.41 [0.24 to 0.70]). It was also associated with a 54% and 84% lower risk of overweight (adjusted relative risk ratio [95% CI]: 0.46 [0.27 to 0.76]) and obesity (0.16 [0.04 to 0.67]), respectively. Conclusions: Cannabis use was associated with lower risks of overweight and obesity in patients with HBV chronic infection. Future studies should test whether these potential benefits of cannabis and cannabinoid use translate into reduced liver disease progression in this high-risk population.

Prenatal neonicotinoid insecticides Exposure, oxidative Stress, and birth outcomes

BACKGROUND

An increasing number of studies have reported neonicotinoid insecticides (NEOs), the emerging alternatives to conventional insecticides, may increase oxidative stress and cause adverse health effects, but limited is known about the prenatal NEOs exposures and their impact on birth outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the levels of prenatal exposure to NEOs/metabolites, to assess their associations with birth outcomes, and investigate whether these associations could be mediated by oxidative stress using 8-OHdG as the biomarker.

METHODS

We studied 296 mother-infant pairs recruited from Laizhou Wan Birth Cohort in 2010 - 2013. Two NEOs (IMI and ACE), three metabolites (6-CN, ND-ACE, and 2CTCA), and 8-OHdG were measured in maternal urine collected before delivery. Birth outcomes including birth weight, birth length, ponderal index (PI), head circumference, and gestational age, were acquired. We examined the associations between NEOs/metabolites and birth outcomes using multivariable linear regression. Mediation analysis was conducted to clarify the role of 8-OHdG on the association of NEOs/metabolites exposure and birth outcomes.

RESULTS

Highest detection rate was observed for ACE (100.0%), followed by IMI (98.3%) and 6-CN (98.0%), suggesting the common exposure of pregnant women. The highest median concentration was observed for 6-CN with creatinine-adjusted median levels of 9.58 μg/g creatinine. A decrease in newborns' head circumference was observed with a 10-fold increase in IMI (β = -1.83; 95% CI = -3.04, -0.62) and ACE (β = -2.27; 95% CI = -3.56, -0.98). An increase in newborns' PI was observed with a 10-fold increase in IMI (β = 0.40; 95% CI = 0.03, 0.75). Maternal 8-OHdG demonstrated 38.5-65.5% mediating effects in the negative association of IMI, ACE, 2-CTCA with head circumference. These associations might differ between boys and girls.

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnant women were widely exposed to NEOs/metabolites in China. Results suggested the potential impacts of prenatal exposure to certain neonicotinoid insecticides on head circumference. Urinary 8-OHdG may partly mediate these associations.

Predicting 2-year survival in stage I-III non-small cell lung cancer: the development and validation of a scoring system from an Australian cohort

Background

There are limited data on survival prediction models in contemporary inoperable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a survival prediction model in a cohort of inoperable stage I-III NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy.

Methods

Data from inoperable stage I-III NSCLC patients diagnosed from 1/1/2016 to 31/12/2017 were collected from three radiation oncology clinics. Patient, tumour and treatment-related variables were selected for model inclusion using univariate and multivariate analysis. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to develop a 2-year overall survival prediction model, the South West Sydney Model (SWSM) in one clinic (n = 117) and validated in the other clinics (n = 144). Model performance, assessed internally and on one independent dataset, was expressed as Harrell’s concordance index (c-index).

Results

The SWSM contained five variables: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide, histological diagnosis, tumour lobe and equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions. The SWSM yielded a c-index of 0.70 on internal validation and 0.72 on external validation. Survival probability could be stratified into three groups using a risk score derived from the model.

Conclusions

A 2-year survival model with good discrimination was developed. The model included tumour lobe as a novel variable and has the potential to guide treatment decisions. Further validation is needed in a larger patient cohort.

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model of Severe Fatigue After Breast Cancer Diagnosis: Toward a Personalized Framework in Survivorship Care

PURPOSE

Fatigue is common and troublesome among breast cancer survivors; however, limited tools exist to predict its risk.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Participants with stage I-III breast cancer were prospectively included from CANTO (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01993498), collecting longitudinal data at diagnosis (before the initiation of any cancer treatment) and 1 (T1), 2 (T2), and 4 (T3) years after diagnosis. The main outcome was severe global fatigue at T2 (score ≥ 40/100, European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Quality of Life Questionnaire-C30). Analyses at T3 were exploratory. Secondary outcomes included physical, emotional, and cognitive fatigue (EORTC Quality of Life Questionnaire-FA12). Multivariable logistic regression models retained associations with severe fatigue by bootstrapped Augmented Backward Elimination. Validation methods included 10-fold internal cross-validation, overoptimism-corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, and external validation.

RESULTS

Among 5,640, 5,000, and 3,400 patients at T1, T2, and T3, respectively, the prevalence of post-treatment severe global fatigue was 35.6%, 34.0%, and 31.5% in the development cohort. Retained risk factors for severe global fatigue at T2 were severe pretreatment fatigue (adjusted odds ratio v no 3.191 [95% CI, 2.704 to 3.767]); younger age (for 1-year decrement 1.015 [1.009 to 1.022]), higher body mass index (for unit increment 1.025 [1.012 to 1.038]), current smoking behavior (v never 1.552 [1.291 to 1.866]), worse anxiety (v noncase 1.265 [1.073 to 1.492]), insomnia (for unit increment 1.005 [1.003 to 1.007]), and pain at diagnosis (for unit increment 1.014 [1.010 to 1.017]), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.75). Receipt of hormonal therapy was a risk factor for severe fatigue at T3 (v no 1.448 [1.165 to 1.799]). Dimension-specific risk factors included body mass index for physical fatigue and emotional distress for emotional and cognitive fatigue.

CONCLUSION

We propose a predictive model to assess fatigue among breast cancer survivors, within a personalized survivorship care framework. This may help clinicians to provide early management interventions or to correct modifiable risk factors and offer more tailored monitoring and education to patients at risk of severe post-treatment fatigue.

Neurotensin and Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Background

Neurotensin is involved in fatty acid and glucose metabolism and promotes the development of obesity and diabetes. These associations appear to be more pronounced in women. We investigated the association of neurotensin with long-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

Methods

We included 452 consecutive patients [144 (31.9%) females] undergoing PCI for ACS or CCS. Plasma samples drawn after PCI were analyzed for neurotensin with an enzyme-linked immunoassay. As primary endpoint, a composite of MACE including all-cause death, non-fatal myocardial infarction and non-fatal stroke during 7 years of follow-up was investigated. As secondary endpoint, we investigated all-cause death.

Results

Neurotensin levels did not differ between male and female patients (p = 0.560). MACE occurred in 150 (33.2%) patients. Restricted cubic splines demonstrated a U-shaped association of log-transformed neurotensin with the primary and secondary endpoint. Therefore, we dichotomized our cohort according to tertiles of log-transformed neurotensin. In Kaplan-Meier analysis including the total cohort and restricted to male patients log- neurotensin tertiles were not associated with MACE (both p > 0.05). Moreover, in the overall cohort and in male patients multivariable Cox regression analysis log-neurotensin tertiles were not associated with MACE or with all-cause death (all p > 0.05). However, in female patients log-neurotensin was associated with MACE in Kaplan-Meier analysis (log-rank p = 0.013). Also, after multivariable adjustment female patients in the first tertile had a significantly increased risk for MACE compared to female patients in the second tertile [HR 3.84 (95% CI 1.71–8.60), p = 0.001]. There was tendency for increased risk in female patients in the third tertile compared to the second tertile [HR 2.14 (95% CI 0.97–4.73), p = 0.058]. Moreover, in female patients the [first and the third tertile of log- neurotensin were associated with all-cause death 1s vs. 2nd tertile: HR 3.03 (95% CI 1.21–7.63), p = 0.018; 3rd vs. 2nd tertile: HR 3.01 (95% CI 1.22–7.44), p = 0.016].

Conclusion

In female patients with CAD undergoing PCI, neurotensin has a U-shaped relationship with adverse outcomes. These data suggest a sex specific association between neurotensin and long-term adverse events after PCI.

Children's Diet at 2 Years and Trajectories of Hyperactivity-Inattention Symptoms and Conduct Problems Between 3 and 8 Years: The EDEN Cohort

BACKGROUND

Although the role of diet is increasingly acknowledged in psychiatry, data are still scarce regarding its early impact on the most significant behavioral disorders of childhood (i.e., hyperactivity-inattention and conduct problems).

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to explore the relation between children's dietary patterns at 2 years and developmental trajectories of hyperactivity-inattention and conduct problems between 3 and 8 years.

METHODS

We recruited 1432 mother-child dyads from the French EDEN (etude sur les déterminants pré- et postnatals du développement et de la santé de l'enfant) mother-child cohort to conduct the analyses. Three dietary patterns, labeled guidelines, processed and fast foods, and baby foods, were identified using an FFQ in children aged 2 years in a previous study. The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire was used to assess hyperactivity-inattention and conduct problems at 3, 5, and 8 years of age and build related trajectories from 3 to 8 years. The relation between children's dietary patterns at 2 years and the worst developmental trajectories of hyperactivity-inattention and conduct problems were determined with multivariable logistic regressions adjusted for potential socioeconomic, maternal, and child confounders.

RESULTS

The score on the guidelines dietary pattern was negatively associated with the risk of hyperactivity-inattention problems (OR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.60-0.94), contrary to adherence to the baby foods dietary pattern (OR: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.16-1.71).

CONCLUSIONS

Distinct patterns of children's diet at 2 years were predictive of developmental trajectories of hyperactivity-inattention problems between 3 and 8 years. These results highlight the relevance of conducting further studies to clarify the mechanisms involved.

Pregnancy Conditions and Complications Associated with the Development of Varicose Veins

BACKGROUND

Pregnancy is a known risk factor for developing varicose veins (VV). However, pregnancy is often considered a homogeneous entity and few studies have examined if specific characteristics and complications of pregnancy may influence VV formation. This study sought to identify which pregnancy-specific factors are associated with the development of VV.

METHODS

All women who gave birth (live or still) between 1998-2020 within a multicenter healthcare system were retrospectively identified and followed through all hospital encounters (inpatient and outpatient). The primary outcome was VV, defined as any encounter with a primary diagnosis code for VV or procedure for VV. The study period for each woman was the time from the first to last encounter. Extended Cox regression modeling evaluated the association between VV and pregnancy-related factors as a time-varying covariates while controlling for patient comorbidities.

RESULTS

There were 156,622 women with a median follow-up of 8.3 years (IQR: 2.7-16.6 years) included. During this time, 225,758 deliveries occurred. The 10- and 20-year freedom from VV was 97.0% (95%CI: 96.8-97.1%) and 92.7% (95%CI: 92.4-93.0%), respectively, from the estimated start of first pregnancy. Overall, 4,028 (2.57%) developed VV during the follow-up period and 1,594 (1.02%) underwent a procedure for VV. After risk adjustment, increasing parity was significantly associated with VV, with each subsequent pregnancy increasing hazard of developing VV (parity=1: HR 1.78; 95%CI: 1.55-1.99; p<0.001; parity≥6: HR 4.83; 95%CI: 2.15-1.99-10.9; p<0.001), Other significant pregnancy factors included excessive weight gain in pregnancy (HR 1.44; 95%CI: 1.09-1.91; p=0.011), post-term pregnancy (HR 1.12; 95%CI: 1.02-1.21; p=0.021), preeclampsia (HR 0.79; 95%CI: 0.70-0.90; p<0.001), and postpartum transfusion of platelets, plasma, or cryoprecipitate (HR 2.05; 95%CI: 1.19-3.53; p=0.001).

CONCLUSION

Increasing parity, excessive weight gain in pregnancy, post-term pregnancy, and preeclampsia affect the development of VV after pregnancy. Though varicose veins after pregnancy are likely underreported and true incidence is unknown, women should be counseled about the impact of these factors on VV development after pregnancy.

Maternal Cannabis Use in the Perinatal Period: Data From the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System Marijuana Supplement, 2016-2018

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of perinatal cannabis use (ie, before and/or during pregnancy); document the frequency, modes, and motivations for use; and identify predictors of perinatal cannabis use.

METHODS

Six states in the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, a state-specific, population-based surveillance system, administered a supplemental questionnaire on perinatal cannabis use in 2016-2018. Women with live births were surveyed 2-6 months postpartum about behaviors ≤ 3 months preconception and during pregnancy. Demographic, psychosocial, and behavioral characteristics were examined in relation to perinatal cannabis use using multinomial regression models. Those who: (1) never used cannabis, (2) only used in preconception period, and (3) used in both preconception and prenatal periods were compared.

RESULTS

Among 6428 respondents, 379 (5.8%) used cannabis pre-conceptionally only and 466 (4.4%) used in both the preconception and prenatal periods. Among those using prenatally, most reported smoking as their single mode (87.1%), with the two most common reasons being stress (83.8%) and nausea/vomiting (79.2%). Marital status, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, parity, and cigarette and alcohol use were significantly associated with perinatal cannabis use. Single (vs partnered) women were more likely to use cannabis prenatally (odds ratio = 2.4, 95% confidence interval: 1.5, 3.9) and non-Hispanic Black (vs White) women were less likely to use prenatally (odds ratio = 0.4, 95% confidence interval: 0.2, 0.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Using a population-based sample of US births in six states, several demographic, psychosocial, and behavioral characteristics were identified in relation to perinatal cannabis use. These data are valuable for counseling in prenatal care and investigations of health effects.

Development and external validation of a dynamic nomogram for delayed cerebral ischaemia after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a study protocol for a multicentre retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Delayed cerebral ischaemia (DCI) caused by aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) is the most frequent complication and typically contributes to poor neurological outcome or deterioration of patients' condition. Therefore, early accurate and effective prediction of DCI is urgently needed. This study aims to construct a dynamic nomogram for precisely calculating the risk of DCI in patients with aSAH. Internal validation of this tool is conducted using the training cohort, and independent external validation is completed by using other medical centre datasets.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This study is a multicentre, retrospective, observational cohort study using data from patients with aSAH. The participants include all adult patients who received surgical treatment in neurosurgery of multiple medical centres from 1 September 2019 to 1 April 2021, including Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Huzhou Central Hospital, First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, General Hospital of Northern Theatre Command and Affiliated Hospital of Panzhihua University. Clinical information is collected via the electronic medical record system, including demographic data, clinical state on admission and serum laboratory tests. Modified Fisher grade at admission, admission subarachnoid clot and cerebral oedema density, and residual postoperative subarachnoid clot density are determined using the electronic imagine record software. The primary outcome is DCI.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study protocol was reviewed and approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, which is the principal affiliation of this study (approval number: WDRM2021-K022). The other Ethics Committees, including Huzhou Central Hospital (approval number: 202108005-01), First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University (approval number: H202156), General Hospital of Northern Theater Command (approval number: Y2021060) and Affiliated Hospital of Panzhihua University (approval number: 202105002), also approved the protocol. The results of this research will be published in a peer-reviewed medical journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ChiCTR2100044448.

Findings from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos on the Importance of Sociocultural Environmental Interactors: Polygenic Risk Score-by-Immigration and Dietary Interactions

Introduction: Hispanic/Latinos experience a disproportionate burden of obesity. Acculturation to US obesogenic diet and practices may lead to an exacerbation of innate genetic susceptibility. We examined the role of gene-environment interactions to better characterize the sociocultural environmental determinants and their genome-scale interactions, which may contribute to missing heritability of obesity. We utilized polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for body mass index (BMI) to perform analyses of PRS-by-acculturation and other environmental interactors among self-identified Hispanic/Latino adults from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL). Methods: PRSs were derived using genome-wide association study (GWAS) weights from a publicly available, large meta-analysis of European ancestry samples. Generalized linear models were run using a set of a priori acculturation-related and environmental factors measured at visit 1 (2008-2011) and visit 2 (2014-2016) in an analytic subsample of 8,109 unrelated individuals with genotypic, phenotypic, and complete case data at both visits. We evaluated continuous measures of BMI and waist-to-hip ratio. All models were weighted for complex sampling design, combined, and sex-stratified. Results: Overall, we observed a consistent increase of BMI with greater PRS across both visits. We found the best-fitting model adjusted for top five principal components of ancestry, sex, age, study site, Hispanic/Latino background genetic ancestry group, sociocultural factors and PRS interactions with age at immigration, years since first arrival to the United States (p < 0.0104), and healthy diet (p < 0.0036) and explained 16% of the variation in BMI. For every 1-SD increase in PRS, there was a corresponding 1.10 kg/m² increase in BMI (p < 0.001). When these results were stratified by sex, we observed that this 1-SD effect of PRS on BMI was greater for women than men (1.45 vs. 0.79 kg/m², p < 0.001). Discussion: We observe that age at immigration and the adoption of certain dietary patterns may play a significant role in modifying the effect of genetic risk on obesity. Careful consideration of sociocultural and immigration-related factors should be evaluated. The role of nongenetic factors, including the social environment, should not be overlooked when describing the performance of PRS or for promoting population health in understudied populations in genomics.