Warmer is better for evolutionary rescue, driving a warm-to-cold bias in habitat colonization dynamics

Evolutionary rescue occurs when populations survive lethal environmental stresses through the rising and fixation of tolerant genotypes. Temperature has long been believed to determine the evolutionary speed of populations and species. Here, we suggest that warmer temperatures can facilitate evolutionary rescue. Moreover, with dispersal among habitats, the advantage in evolutionary rescue for warmer populations may cause a bias in habitat colonization dynamics towards the warm-to-cold direction. We experimentally tested these hypotheses with a model microbial system. Our first experiment showed that bacterial populations at warmer temperatures had a greater chance to evolve resistance and escape the fate of extinction under an antibiotic treatment. In the second experiment, metapopulations that consisted of warm and cold habitats were exposed to the antibiotic stress; local populations that went extinct might be recolonized, and such recolonization events were biased to the warm-to-cold direction. We also examined possible mechanisms underlying the temperature effect on the rapid evolution of resistance in our study system. Our results may help to understand the mechanisms of maintenance of biodiversity and patterns of gene flow among climatic regions, particularly in pest species subject to chemical control treatments.

From biodiversity to nature deficiency in human health and disease

Nature (biodiversity) loss is the loss or decline of the state of nature taking place in the wider environment. We present a novel concept, nature deficiency, referring to nature loss in the human body influencing health. Humans are connected with the natural environment and its microbes and biogenic chemicals through eating (drinking), breathing, and touching. The mental and sociocultural links to the environment are also strong. With medical and ecological research and guidelines, the diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of nature deficiency may become part of the clinical practice. Nature prescription is likely to find plausible forms in patient care and inspire preventive actions at the society level. Health professionals are in a key position to integrate public health promotion and environmental care.

Long-term sex-dependent inflammatory response of adult frogs to ammonium exposure during the larval stage

Among others, the global change involves a worldwide increase in cropland area, with the concomitant rise in nitrogenous fertilizer supplementation and species range alterations, including parasites and pathogens. As most animals rely on their immune systems against these infectious agents, studying the potential effects of nitrogenous compounds on animal immune response is vital to understand their susceptibility to infections under these altered circumstances. Being subjected to an alarming process of global declines, amphibians are the object of particular attention, given their sensitivity to these compounds, especially to ammonium. Moreover, whereas adults can actively avoid polluted patches, larvae are confined within their waterbodies, thus exposed to contaminants in it. In this work, we test whether chronic exposure to a sublethal dose of ammonium during the larval stage of Pelophylax perezi frogs, released from all contamination after metamorphosis, leads to impaired inflammatory response to phytohemagglutinin in adults. We also test whether such a response differs between agrosystem individuals as compared with conspecifics from natural habitats. We found negative carryover effects of chronic exposure of larvae to ammonium on adult inflammatory response, which could imply a greater susceptibility to pathogens and parasites. However, this damage is only true for males, which, according to the immunocompetence handicap hypothesis, could be a consequence of a testosterone-triggered impairment of male immune function. In disagreement with our prediction, however, we detected no differences in the inflammatory response of agrosystem frogs to phytohemagglutinin as compared with natural habitat conspecifics.

Building climate-sensitive nutrition programmes

The food system and climate are closely interconnected. Although most research has focused on the need to adopt a plant-based diet to help mitigate climate change, there is also an urgent need to examine the effects of climate change on food systems to adapt to climate change. A systems approach can help identify the pathways through which climate influences food systems, thereby ensuring that programmes combating malnutrition take climate into account. Although little is known about how climate considerations are currently incorporated into nutrition programming, climate information services have the potential to help target the delivery of interventions for at-risk populations and reduce climate-related disruption during their implementation. To ensure climate services provide timely information relevant to nutrition programmes, it is important to fill gaps in our knowledge about the influence of climate variability on food supply chains. A proposed roadmap for developing climate-sensitive nutrition programmes recommends: (i) research aimed at achieving a better understanding of the pathways through which climate influences diet and nutrition, including any time lags; (ii) the identification of entry points for climate information into the decision-making process for nutrition programme delivery; and (iii) capacity-building and training programmes to better equip public health practitioners with the knowledge, confidence and motivation to incorporate climate resilience into nutrition programmes. With sustained investment in capacity-building, data collection and analysis, climate information services can be developed to provide the data, analyses and forecasts needed to ensure nutrition programmes target their interventions where and when they are most needed.

Comparison of climatic factors on mosquito abundance at US Army Garrison Humphreys, Republic of Korea

Introduction

A number of studies have been conducted on the relationship between the distribution of mosquito abundance and meteorological variables. However, few studies have specifically provided specific ranges of temperatures for estimating the maximum abundance of mosquitoes as an empirical basis for climatic dynamics for estimating mosquito-borne infectious disease risks.

Methods

Adult mosquitoes were collected for three consecutive nights/week using Mosquito Magnet® Independence® model traps during 2018 and 2019 at US Army Garrison (USAG) Humphreys, Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Republic of Korea (ROK). An estimate of daily mean temperatures (provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration) were distributed at the maximum abundance for selected species of mosquitoes using daily mosquito collection data after controlling for mosquito ecological cycles and environmental factors.

Results

Using the Monte-Carlo simulation, the overall mosquito population abundance peaked at 22.7°C (2.5^th—97.5^th: 21.7°C–23.8°C). Aedes albopictus, vector of Zika, chikungunya, dengue fever and other viruses, abundance peaked at 24.6°C (2.5^th–97.5^th, 22.3°C–25.6°C), while Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) vectors, e.g., Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Culex pipiens, peaked at 24.3°C (2.5^th–97.5^th: 21.9°C–26.3°C) and 22.6°C (2.5^th–97.5^th: 21.9°C–25.2°C), respectively. Members of the Anopheles Hyrcanus Group, some of which are vivax malaria vectors in the ROK, abundance peaked at 22.4°C (2.5^th–97.5^th: 21.5°C–23.8°C).

Conclusion

The empirical mean temperature ranges for maximum abundance were determined for each mosquito species collected at USAG Humphreys. These data contributed to the identification of relative mosquito abundance patterns for estimating mosquito-borne disease risks and developing and implementing disease prevention practices.

Spatial-temporal characteristics of AIDS incidences in Mainland China

OBJECT

Revealed the spatial-temporal patterns of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidences in Mainland China.

METHODS

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique was applied to analyze the major spatial distribution modes and the temporal changes of AIDS incidences in Mainland China during 2002-2017.

RESULTS

The annual average AIDS incidences increased from 0.06 per 100 000 in 2002 to 4.15 per 100 000 in 2017, with an annual average increase of 0.31 per 100 000. The southwest regions were high-incidence areas, as well as Xinjiang province in the northwest. There were two typical spatial modes. EOF 1 represented an isodirectional spatial pattern that the incidences were relatively high in general, and the fluctuation ranges were relatively high in the southwest and northeast. EOF 2 represented a reverse spatial pattern that the incidences were relatively high (or low) in Guangxi, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Shanghai, and Henan, yet were relatively low (or high) in the remaining regions.

CONCLUSION

The AIDS incidences in Mainland China were relatively low during 2002-2010, yet were kept in a relatively high level since 2012. The prevention and control of AIDS need further development, especially in the southwest regions.

Influence of herd immunity in the cyclical nature of arboviruses

We review and contrast the evidence for an effect of amplifying host herd immunity on circulation and human exposure to arboviruses. Herd immunity of short-lived West Nile virus avian amplifying hosts appears to play a limited role in levels of enzootic circulation and spillover infections of humans, which are not amplifiers. In contrast, herd immunity of nonhuman primate hosts for enzootic Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses is much stronger and appears to regulate to a large extent the periodicity of sylvatic amplification in Africa. Following the recent Zika and chikungunya pandemics, human herd immunity in the Americas quickly rose to ∼50% in many regions, although seroprevalence remains patchy. Modeling from decades of chikungunya circulation in Asia suggests that this level of herd immunity will suppress for many years major chikungunya and Zika epidemics in the Americas, followed by smaller outbreaks as herd immunity cycles with a periodicity of up to several decades.

The effect of global change on mosquito-borne disease

More than 80% of the global population is at risk of a vector-borne disease, with mosquito-borne diseases being the largest contributor to human vector-borne disease burden. Although many global processes, such as land-use and socioeconomic change, are thought to affect mosquito-borne disease dynamics, research to date has strongly focused on the role of climate change. Here, we show, through a review of contemporary modelling studies, that no consensus on how future changes in climatic conditions will impact mosquito-borne diseases exists, possibly due to interacting effects of other global change processes, which are often excluded from analyses. We conclude that research should not focus solely on the role of climate change but instead consider growing evidence for additional factors that modulate disease risk. Furthermore, future research should adopt new technologies, including developments in remote sensing and system dynamics modelling techniques, to enable a better understanding and mitigation of mosquito-borne diseases in a changing world.

Will natural resistance result in populations of ash trees remaining in British woodlands after a century of ash dieback disease?

Novel pests and diseases are becoming increasingly common, and often cause additional mortality to host species in the newly contacted communities. This can alter the structure of the community up to, and including, the extinction of host species. In the last 20 years, ash dieback (ADB) disease has spread into Europe from East Asia. It has caused substantial mortality in ash tree (Fraxinus excelsior L.) populations. However, a proportion of the individuals in most populations appear to be less susceptible to ADB and resistance seems to have high heritability. These observations have led to suggestions that ash populations may be sustainable after the disease. In order to test this hypothesis, I modified an existing model of UK woodland (parametrized for Wytham Woods, Oxfordshire) to take into account the impact of ADB and allowed offspring to inherit resistance traits from their parent. The results suggest that ash populations would still exist in 100 years, but at lower levels than they are currently. For example, when the initial proportion of resistant individuals is about 10% and heritability of resistance is 0.5, then the population of ash falls to about one-third of present levels. The proportion of individuals initially resistant to ADB had a larger effect on population size after 100 years than the heritability of resistance. The fact that the initial size of the resistant population is important to achieve a high population size in the presence of ADB suggests that a selective breeding programme with the intention of augmenting the natural ash populations would be beneficial.

Urban climate modified short-term association of air pollution with pneumonia mortality in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND

City is becoming warmer, especially in the process of urbanization and climate change. However, it is largely unknown whether this warming urban climate may modify the short-term effects of air pollution.

OBJECTIVES

To test whether warmer urban climates intensify the acute mortality effects of air pollution on pneumonia in Hong Kong.

METHODS

Participants who died of pneumonia from a prospective Chinese elderly cohort between 1998 and 2011 were selected as cases. Urban climatic (UC) classes of cases were determined by an established Urban Climatic Map according to their residential addresses. UC classes were first dichotomized into cool and warm climates and case-crossover analysis was used to estimate the short-term association of pneumonia mortality with air pollution. We further classified UC classes into climate quartiles and used case-only analysis to test the trend of urban climate modification on the short-term association of pneumonia mortality with air pollution.

RESULTS

Among 66,820 elders (≥65 years), 2208 pneumonia deaths (cases) were identified during the 11-14 years of follow-up. The effects of air pollution for cases residing in the warm climate were statistically significant (p < 0.05) higher than those living in the cool climate. There was an increasing linear trend of urban climate modification on the association of pneumonia mortality with NO₂ (nitrogen dioxide) (p for trend = 0.035). Compared to climate Quartile 1 (the lowest), deaths resided in climate Quartile 2, 3, and 4 (the highest) were associated with an additional percent change of 9.07% (0.52%, 17.62%), 12.89% (4.34%, 21.43%), and 8.45% (-0.10%, 17.00%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Warmer urban climate worsened the acute mortality effects of pneumonia associated with air pollutants in Hong Kong. Our findings suggest that warmer urban climate introduced by climate change and urbanization may increase the risks of air pollution-related pneumonia.

Climate Change and Respiratory Infections

The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Dengue Fever Outbreak Predictions in the Northwest Coast of Yucatan, Mexico and San Juan, Puerto Rico

Modelling dengue fever in endemic areas is important to mitigate and improve vector-borne disease control to reduce outbreaks. This study applied artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict dengue fever outbreak occurrences in San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA), and in several coastal municipalities of the state of Yucatan, Mexico, based on specific thresholds. The models were trained with 19 years of dengue fever data for Puerto Rico and six years for Mexico. Environmental and demographic data included in the predictive models were sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation, air temperature (i.e., minimum, maximum, and average), humidity, previous dengue cases, and population size. Two models were applied for each study area. One predicted dengue incidence rates based on population at risk (i.e., numbers of people younger than 24 years), and the other on the size of the vulnerable population (i.e., number of people younger than five years and older than 65 years). The predictive power was above 70% for all four model runs. The ANNs were able to successfully model dengue fever outbreak occurrences in both study areas. The variables with the most influence on predicting dengue fever outbreak occurrences for San Juan, Puerto Rico, included population size, previous dengue cases, maximum air temperature, and date. In Yucatan, Mexico, the most important variables were population size, previous dengue cases, minimum air temperature, and date. These models have predictive skills and should help dengue fever mitigation and management to aid specific population segments in the Caribbean region and around the Gulf of Mexico.

Altered thermoregulation as a driver of host behaviour in glochidia-parasitised fish

Parasites alter their host behaviour and vice versa as a result of mutual adaptations in the evolutionary arms race. One of these adaptations involves changes in host thermoregulation, which has the potential to harm the parasite and thereby act as a defence mechanism. We used a model of the brown trout Salmo trutta experimentally parasitised with ectoparasitic larvae called glochidia from the endangered freshwater pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera to reveal whether parasitation alters fish behavioural thermoregulation. A study based on radio telemetry temperature sensors was performed during almost one year M. margaritifera parasitic stage. Glochidia infested S. trutta altered its thermoregulation through active searching for habitats with different thermal regimes. General preference for lower temperature of infested fish varied, being sometimes above, sometimes below the temperature preferred by uninfested individuals. Infested fish also preferred different temperatures across localities, while uninfested fish maintained their thermal preference no matter which stream they inhabited. Glochidia further induced the expression of a behavioural syndrome among S. trutta personality traits, suggesting that it might increase the probability that the fish host would occur in the glochidia temperature optimum. Our findings present the first evidence that thermoregulation plays a fundamental role in the relationship of affiliated mussels and their fish hosts. Incorporating thermoregulation issue in the study of this relationship can help to interpret results from previous behavioural studies as well as to optimise management measures related to endangered mussels.

Lessons Learned From Developing an Eradication Investment Case for Lymphatic Filariasis

In the last few years, the concepts of disease elimination and eradication have again gained consideration from the global health community, with Guinea worm disease (dracunculiasis) on track to become the first parasitic disease to be eradicated. Given the many complex and interlinking issues involved in committing to a disease eradication initiative, such commitments must be based on a solid assessment of a broad range of factors. In this chapter, we discuss the value and implications of undertaking a systematic and fact-based analysis of the overall situation prior to embarking on an elimination or eradication programme. As an example, we draw upon insights gained from a series of lymphatic filariasis (LF) studies from our research group that adopted an eradication investment case (EIC) framework. The justification for EICs, and related epidemiological, geospatial and other mathematical/operational research modelling, stems from the necessity for proper planning prior to committing to disease eradication. Across all considerations for LF eradication, including: time, treatments, level of investments necessary, health impact, cost-effectiveness, and broader economic benefits, scaling-up mass drug administration coverage to all endemic communities immediately provided the most favourable results. The coherent and consistent pursuit of eradication goals, operationally tailored to a given socioecological system and based on integrated measures of available tools will lead relatively rapidly to elimination in many parts of endemic areas and provide the cornerstone towards eradication.

The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world

Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector) production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge.

Host immunity shapes the impact of climate changes on the dynamics of parasite infections

Global climate change is predicted to alter the distribution and dynamics of soil-transmitted helminth infections, and yet host immunity can also influence the impact of warming on host-parasite interactions and mitigate the long-term effects. We used time-series data from two helminth species of a natural herbivore and investigated the contribution of climate change and immunity on the long-term and seasonal dynamics of infection. We provide evidence that climate warming increases the availability of infective stages of both helminth species and the proportional increase in the intensity of infection for the helminth not regulated by immunity. In contrast, there is no significant long-term positive trend in the intensity for the immune-controlled helminth, as immunity reduces the net outcome of climate on parasite dynamics. Even so, hosts experienced higher infections of this helminth at an earlier age during critical months in the warmer years. Immunity can alleviate the expected long-term effect of climate on parasite infections but can also shift the seasonal peak of infection toward the younger individuals.

River Blindness: Mathematical Models for Control and Elimination

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is one of the few neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) whose control strategies have been informed by mathematical modelling. With the change in focus from elimination of the disease burden to elimination of Onchocerca volvulus, much remains to be done to refine, calibrate and validate existing models. Under the impetus of the NTD Modelling Consortium, the teams that developed EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have joined forces to compare and improve these frameworks to better assist ongoing elimination efforts. We review their current versions and describe how they are being used to address two key questions: (1) where can onchocerciasis be eliminated with current intervention strategies by 2020/2025? and (2) what alternative/complementary strategies could help to accelerate elimination where (1) cannot be achieved? The control and elimination of onchocerciasis from the African continent is at a crucial crossroad. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control closed at the end of 2015, and although a new platform for support and integration of NTD control has been launched, the disease will have to compete with a myriad of other national health priorities at a pivotal time in the road to elimination. However, never before had onchocerciasis control a better arsenal of intervention strategies as well as diagnostics. It is, therefore, timely to present two models of different geneses and modelling traditions as they come together to produce robust decision-support tools. We start by describing the structural and parametric assumptions of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM; we continue by summarizing the modelling of current treatment strategies with annual (or biannual) mass ivermectin distribution and introduce a number of alternative strategies, including other microfilaricidal therapies (such as moxidectin), macrofilaricidal (anti-wolbachial) treatments, focal vector control and the possibility of an onchocerciasis vaccine. We conclude by discussing challenges, opportunities and future directions.

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10-15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems.

The Strait of Gibraltar poses an effective barrier to host-specialised but not to host-generalised lineages of avian Haemosporidia

One of the major concerns with ongoing environmental global change is the ability of parasites to shift their distribution (both geographically and across hosts) and to increase in virulence. To understand the structure, diversity and connectivity of parasite communities across the Mediterranean Sea, we used avian haemosporidian communities associated with forest birds of northwestern Africa and northwestern Iberia as a model system. We characterised host specificity of lineages and tested whether host generalists are more likely to cross the biogeographic barrier imposed by the Strait of Gibraltar than host specialists. We sampled 321 birds of 43 species in northwestern Africa and 735 birds of 49 species in northwestern Iberia. Using a PCR-based approach to amplify Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites, we retrieved 969 sequences representing 200 unique cytochrome-b lineages. Haemosporidians infected a significantly higher proportion of birds in northwestern Africa (78.5%) than in northwestern Iberia (50.5%). Relative diversity of different haemosporidian genera did not differ between our study areas, but Plasmodium was overrepresented among individual infections in northwestern Iberia. Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon lineages were predominantly host-specialised and Plasmodium lineages were host-generalised. The number of regions occupied by lineages was significantly associated with their host specificity and abundance. These data are consistent with the positive abundance-occupancy relationship and patterns of host specificity among different haemosporidian genera observed in other studies.

WEST NILE VIRUS ANTIBODY DECAY RATE IN FREE-RANGING BIRDS

Antibody duration, following a humoral immune response to West Nile virus (WNV) infection, is poorly understood in free-ranging avian hosts. Quantifying antibody decay rate is important for interpreting serologic results and for understanding the potential for birds to serorevert and become susceptible again. We sampled free-ranging birds in Chicago, Illinois, US, from 2005 to 2011 and Atlanta, Georgia, US, from 2010 to 2012 to examine the dynamics of antibody decay following natural WNV infection. Using serial dilutions in a blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, we quantified WNV antibody titer in repeated blood samples from individual birds over time. We quantified a rate of antibody decay for 23 Northern Cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis) of 0.198 natural log units per month and 24 individuals of other bird species of 0.178 natural log units per month. Our results suggest that juveniles had a higher rate of antibody decay than adults, which is consistent with nonlinear antibody decay at different times postexposure. Overall, most birds had undetectable titers 2 yr postexposure. Nonuniform WNV antibody decay rates in free-ranging birds underscore the need for cautious interpretation of avian serology results in the context of arbovirus surveillance and epidemiology.

Climate change and Ixodes tick-borne diseases of humans

The evidence that climate warming is changing the distribution of Ixodes ticks and the pathogens they transmit is reviewed and evaluated. The primary approaches are either phenomenological, which typically assume that climate alone limits current and future distributions, or mechanistic, asking which tick-demographic parameters are affected by specific abiotic conditions. Both approaches have promise but are severely limited when applied separately. For instance, phenomenological approaches (e.g. climate envelope models) often select abiotic variables arbitrarily and produce results that can be hard to interpret biologically. On the other hand, although laboratory studies demonstrate strict temperature and humidity thresholds for tick survival, these limits rarely apply to field situations. Similarly, no studies address the influence of abiotic conditions on more than a few life stages, transitions or demographic processes, preventing comprehensive assessments. Nevertheless, despite their divergent approaches, both mechanistic and phenomenological models suggest dramatic range expansions of Ixodes ticks and tick-borne disease as the climate warms. The predicted distributions, however, vary strongly with the models' assumptions, which are rarely tested against reasonable alternatives. These inconsistencies, limited data about key tick-demographic and climatic processes and only limited incorporation of non-climatic processes have weakened the application of this rich area of research to public health policy or actions. We urge further investigation of the influence of climate on vertebrate hosts and tick-borne pathogen dynamics. In addition, testing model assumptions and mechanisms in a range of natural contexts and comparing their relative importance as competing models in a rigorous statistical framework will significantly advance our understanding of how climate change will alter the distribution, dynamics and risk of tick-borne disease.

Synergistic and antagonistic interactions between bednets and vaccines in the control of malaria

It is extremely likely that the malaria vaccines currently in development will be used in conjunction with treated bednets and other forms of malaria control. The interaction of different intervention methods is at present poorly understood in a disease such as malaria where immunity is more complex than for other pathogens that have been successfully controlled by vaccination. Here we develop a general mathematical model of malaria transmission to examine the interaction between vaccination and bednets. Counterintuitively, we find that the frailty of malaria immunity will potentially cause both synergistic and antagonistic interactions between vaccination and the use of bednets. We explore the conditions that create these tensions, and outline strategies that minimize their detrimental impact. Our analysis specifically considers the three leading vaccine classes currently in development: preerythrocytic (PEV), blood stage (BSV), and transmission blocking (TBV). We find that the combination of BSV with treated bednets can lead to increased morbidity with no added value in terms of elimination; the interaction is clearly antagonistic. In contrast, there is strong synergy between PEV and treated bednets that may facilitate elimination, although transient stages are likely to increase morbidity. The combination of TBV with treated bednets is synergistic, lowering both morbidity and elimination thresholds. Our results suggest that vaccines will not provide a straightforward solution to malaria control, and that future programs need to consider the synergistic and antagonistic interactions between vaccines and treated bednets.

Environmental changes can produce shifts in chagas disease infection risk

An epidemiological network contains all the organisms involved (types) in the transmission of a parasite. The nodes of the network represent reservoirs, hosts, and vectors, while the links between the nodes represent the strength and direction of parasite movement. Networks that contain humans are of special interest because they are of concern to public health authorities. Under these circumstances, it is possible, in principle, to identify cycles (closed paths in the network) that include humans and select the ones that carry the maximum probability of human infection. The basic reproduction number R 0 in such a network gives the average number of new infections of any type after the introduction of one individual infected by any type. To obtain R 0 for complex networks, one can use the next-generation matrix (NGM) approach. Every entry in NGM will average the contribution of each link that connects two types. To tease the contribution of every cycle apart, we define the virulence as the geometric mean of the NGM entries corresponding to the links therein. This approach allows for the quantification of specific cycles of interest while it also makes the computation of the sensitivity and elasticity of the parameters easier. In this work, we compute the virulence for the transmission dynamics of Chagas disease for a typical rural area in Colombia incorporating the effect of environmental changes on the vector population size. We concluded that the highest contribution to human infection comes from humans themselves, which is a surprising and interesting result. In addition, sensitivity analysis revealed that increasing vector population size increases the risk of human infection.

Climatic effects on mosquito abundance in Mediterranean wetlands

Background

The impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases is highly controversial. One of the principal points of debate is whether or not climate influences mosquito abundance, a key factor in disease transmission.

Methods

To test this hypothesis, we analysed ten years of data (2003–2012) from biweekly surveys to assess inter-annual and seasonal relationships between the abundance of seven mosquito species known to be pathogen vectors (West Nile virus, Usutu virus, dirofilariasis and Plasmodium sp.) and several climatic variables in two wetlands in SW Spain.

Results

Within-season abundance patterns were related to climatic variables (i.e. temperature, rainfall, tide heights, relative humidity and photoperiod) that varied according to the mosquito species in question. Rainfall during winter months was positively related to Culex pipiens and Ochlerotatus detritus annual abundances. Annual maximum temperatures were non-linearly related to annual Cx. pipiens abundance, while annual mean temperatures were positively related to annual Ochlerotatus caspius abundance. Finally, we modelled shifts in mosquito abundances using the A2 and B2 temperature and rainfall climate change scenarios for the period 2011–2100. While Oc. caspius, an important anthropophilic species, may increase in abundance, no changes are expected for Cx. pipiens or the salt-marsh mosquito Oc. detritus.

Conclusions

Our results highlight that the effects of climate are species-specific, place-specific and non-linear and that linear approaches will therefore overestimate the effect of climate change on mosquito abundances at high temperatures. Climate warming does not necessarily lead to an increase in mosquito abundance in natural Mediterranean wetlands and will affect, above all, species such as Oc. caspius whose numbers are not closely linked to rainfall and are influenced, rather, by local tidal patterns and temperatures. The final impact of changes in vector abundance on disease frequency will depend on the direct and indirect effects of climate and other parameters related to pathogen amplification and spillover on humans and other vertebrates.

Ecological niche and potential distribution of Anopheles arabiensis in Africa in 2050

Background

The future distribution of malaria in Africa is likely to be much more dependent on environmental conditions than the current distribution due to the effectiveness of indoor and therapeutic anti-malarial interventions, such as insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying for mosquitoes (IRS), artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT), and intermittent presumptive treatment (IPT). Future malaria epidemiology is therefore expected to be increasingly dominated by Anopheles arabiensis, which is the most abundant exophagic mosquito competent to transmit Plasmodium falciparum and exhibits a wide geographic range.

Methods

To map the potential distribution of An. arabiensis in Africa, ecological niche models were fit to 20th century collection records. Many common species distribution modelling techniques aim to discriminate species habitat from the background distribution of environments. Since these methods arguably result in unnecessarily large Type I and Type II errors, LOBAG-OC was used to identify the niche boundary using only data on An. arabiensis occurrences. The future distribution of An. arabiensis in Africa was forecasted by projecting the fit model onto maps of simulated climate change following three climate change scenarios.

Results

Ecological niche modelling revealed An. arabiensis to be a climate generalist in the sense that it can occur in most of Africa’s contemporary environmental range. Under three climate change scenarios, the future distribution of An. arabiensis is expected to be reduced by 48%-61%. Map differences between baseline and projected climate suggest that habitat reductions will be especially extensive in Western and Central Africa; portions of Botswana, Namibia, and Angola in Southern Africa; and portions of Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, and Kenya in East Africa. The East African Rift Valley and Eastern Coast of Africa are expected to remain habitable. Some modest gains in habitat are predicted at the margins of the current range in South Sudan, South Africa, and Angola.

Conclusion

In summary, these results suggest that the future potential distribution of An. arabiensis in Africa is likely to be smaller than the contemporary distribution by approximately half as a result of climate change. Agreement among the three modelling scenarios suggests that this outcome is robust to a wide range of potential climate futures.

Experimental warming drives a seasonal shift in the timing of host-parasite dynamics with consequences for disease risk

Multi-species experiments are critical for identifying the mechanisms through which climate change influences population dynamics and community interactions within ecological systems, including infectious diseases. Using a host-parasite system involving freshwater snails, amphibians and trematode parasites, we conducted a year-long, outdoor experiment to evaluate how warming affected net parasite production, the timing of infection and the resultant pathology. Warming of 3 °C caused snail intermediate hosts to release parasites 9 months earlier and increased infected snail mortality by fourfold, leading to decreased overlap between amphibians and parasites. As a result, warming halved amphibian infection loads and reduced pathology by 67%, despite comparable total parasite production across temperature treatments. These results demonstrate that climate-disease theory should be expanded to account for predicted changes in host and parasite phenology, which may often be more important than changes in total parasite output for predicting climate-driven changes in disease risk.

Using the basic reproduction number to assess the effects of climate change in the risk of Chagas disease transmission in Colombia

The dynamics of vector-borne diseases has often been linked to climate change. However the commonly complex dynamics of vector-borne diseases make it very difficult to predict risk based on vector or host distributions. The basic reproduction number (R0) integrates all factors that determine whether a pathogen can establish or not. To obtain R0 for complex vector-borne diseases one can use the next-generation matrix (NGM) approach. We used the NGM to compute R0 for Chagas disease in Colombia incorporating the effect of temperature in some of the transmission routes of Trypanosoma cruzi. We used R0 to generate a risk map of present conditions and a forecast risk map at 20 years from now based on mean annual temperature (data obtained from Worldclim). In addition we used the model to compute elasticity and sensitivity indexes on all model parameters and routes of transmission. We present this work as an approach to indicate which transmission pathways are more critical for disease transmission but acknowledge the fact that results and projections strongly depend on better knowledge of entomological parameters and transmission routes. We concluded that the highest contribution to R0 comes from transmission of the parasites from humans to vectors, which is a surprising result. In addition,parameters related to contacts between human and vectors and the efficiency of parasite transmission between them also show a prominent effect on R0.

Assessing the effects of climate on host-parasite interactions: a comparative study of European birds and their parasites

Background

Climate change potentially has important effects on distribution, abundance, transmission and virulence of parasites in wild populations of animals.

Methodology/Principal Finding

Here we analyzed paired information on 89 parasite populations for 24 species of bird hosts some years ago and again in 2010 with an average interval of 10 years. The parasite taxa included protozoa, feather parasites, diptera, ticks, mites and fleas. We investigated whether change in abundance and prevalence of parasites was related to change in body condition, reproduction and population size of hosts. We conducted analyses based on the entire dataset, but also on a restricted dataset with intervals between study years being 5–15 years. Parasite abundance increased over time when restricting the analyses to datasets with an interval of 5–15 years, with no significant effect of changes in temperature at the time of breeding among study sites. Changes in host body condition and clutch size were related to change in temperature between first and second study year. In addition, changes in clutch size, brood size and body condition of hosts were correlated with change in abundance of parasites. Finally, changes in population size of hosts were not significantly related to changes in abundance of parasites or their prevalence.

Conclusions/Significance

Climate change is associated with a general increase in parasite abundance. Variation in laying date depended on locality and was associated with latitude while body condition of hosts was associated with a change in temperature. Because clutch size, brood size and body condition were associated with change in parasitism, these results suggest that parasites, perhaps mediated through the indirect effects of temperature, may affect fecundity and condition of their hosts. The conclusions were particularly in accordance with predictions when the restricted dataset with intervals of 5–15 years was used, suggesting that short intervals may bias findings.

Gimme shelter--the relative sensitivity of parasitic nematodes with direct and indirect life cycles to climate change

Climate change is expected to alter the dynamics of host-parasite systems globally. One key element in developing predictive models for these impacts is the life cycle of the parasite. It is, for example, commonly assumed that parasites with an indirect life cycle would be more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than parasites with a direct life cycle due to the greater chance that at least one of their obligate host species will go extinct. Here, we challenge this notion by contrasting parasitic nematodes with a direct life cycle against those with an indirect life cycle. Specifically, we suggest that behavioral thermoregulation by the intermediate host may buffer the larvae of indirectly transmitted parasites against temperature extremes, and hence climate warming. We term this the 'shelter effect'. Formalizing each life cycle in a comprehensive model reveals a fitness advantage for the direct life cycle over the indirect life cycle at low temperatures, but the shelter effect reverses this advantage at high temperatures. When examined for seasonal environments, the models suggest that climate warming may in some regions create a temporal niche in mid-summer that excludes parasites with a direct life cycle, but allows parasites with an indirect life cycle to persist. These patterns are amplified if parasite larvae are able to manipulate their intermediate host to increase ingestion probability by definite hosts. Furthermore, our results suggest that exploiting the benefits of host sheltering may have aided the evolution of indirect life cycles. Our modeling framework utilizes the Metabolic Theory of Ecology to synthesize the complexities of host behavioral thermoregulation and its impacts on various temperature-dependent parasite life history components in a single measure of fitness, R0 . It allows quantitative predictions of climate change impacts, and is easily generalized to many host-parasite systems.

Why are the prevalence and diversity of helminths in the endemic Pyrenean brook newt Calotriton asper (Amphibia, Salamandridae) so low?

A cornerstone in parasitology is why some species or populations are more parasitized than others. Here we examine the influence of host characteristics and habitat on parasite prevalence. We studied the helminths parasitizing the Pyrenean brook newt Calotriton asper (n= 167), paying special attention to the relationship between parasites and ecological factors such as habitat, sex, ontogeny, body size and age of the host. We detected two species of parasites, Megalobatrachonema terdentatum (Nematoda: Kathlaniidae) and Brachycoelium salamandrae (Trematoda: Brachycoeliidae), with a prevalence of 5.99% and 1.2%, respectively. Marginally significant differences were found in the prevalence between sexes, with females being more parasitized than males. The present results show significant differences in the body length of paedomorphic and metamorphic individuals, the former being smaller. Nevertheless, no significant correlations between parasite prevalence and either newt body length, ontogenetic stage or age were found. In comparison with other Salamandridae living in ponds, prevalence and diversity values were low. This may be due to a long hibernation period, the species' lotic habitat and its reophilous lifestyle, which probably do not allow for a high parasite load.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

Climate change and West Nile virus in a highly endemic region of North America

The Canadian prairie provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta have reported the highest human incidence of clinical cases of West Nile virus (WNV) infection in Canada. The primary vector for WVN in this region is the mosquito Culex tarsalis. This study used constructed models and biological thresholds to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of Cx. tarsalis and WNV infection rate in the prairie provinces under a range of potential future climate and habitat conditions. We selected one median and two extreme outcome scenarios to represent future climate conditions in the 2020 (2010–2039), 2050 (2040–2069) and 2080 (2070–2099) time slices. In currently endemic regions, the projected WNV infection rate under the median outcome scenario in 2050 raised 17.91 times (ranged from 1.29-27.45 times for all scenarios and time slices) comparing to current climate conditions. Seasonal availability of Cx. tarsalis infected with WNV extended from June to August to include May and September. Moreover, our models predicted northward range expansion for Cx. tarsalis (1.06–2.56 times the current geographic area) and WNV (1.08–2.34 times the current geographic area). These findings predict future public and animal health risk of WNV in the Canadian prairie provinces.

Climate changes influence free-living stages of soil-transmitted parasites of European rabbits

Climate warming has been suggested to augment the risk of infectious disease outbreaks by extending the seasonal window for parasite growth and by increasing the rate of transmission. Understanding how this occurs in parasite-host systems is important for appreciating long-term and seasonal changes in host exposure to infection and to reduce species extinction caused by diseases. We investigated how free-living stages of two soil-transmitted helminths of the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) responded to experimental changes in temperature by performing laboratory experiments with environmental chambers and field manipulations using open-top-chambers. This study was motivated by our previous observations that air temperature has increased over the last 30 years in our field site and that during this period intensity of infection of Graphidium strigosum but not Trichostrongylus retortaeformis was positively associated with this temperature increase. Laboratory and field experiments showed that both parasites accelerated egg development and increased hatching rate and larval survival in response to accumulating thermal energy. Both parasites behaved similarly when exposed to diverse temperature regimes, decadal trends, and monthly fluctuations, however, T. retortaeformis was more successful than G. strigosum by showing higher rates of egg hatching and larval survival. Across the months, the first day of hatching occurred earlier in warmer conditions suggesting that climate warming can lengthen the period of parasite growth and host exposure to infective stages. Also, T. retortaeformis hatched earlier than G. strigosum. These findings showed that seasonal changes in intensity, frequency, and duration of daily temperature are important causes of variability in egg hatching and larva survival. Overall, this study emphasizes the important role of climate warming and seasonality on the dynamics of free-living stages in soil-transmitted helminths and their contribution to enhance host exposure to parasitic infections. Yet, the ability to infect might ultimately depend on how hosts interact with parasites.

Predicting the effect of climate change on African trypanosomiasis: integrating epidemiology with parasite and vector biology

Climate warming over the next century is expected to have a large impact on the interactions between pathogens and their animal and human hosts. Vector-borne diseases are particularly sensitive to warming because temperature changes can alter vector development rates, shift their geographical distribution and alter transmission dynamics. For this reason, African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), a vector-borne disease of humans and animals, was recently identified as one of the 12 infectious diseases likely to spread owing to climate change. We combine a variety of direct effects of temperature on vector ecology, vector biology and vector-parasite interactions via a disease transmission model and extrapolate the potential compounding effects of projected warming on the epidemiology of African trypanosomiasis. The model predicts that epidemics can occur when mean temperatures are between 20.7°C and 26.1°C. Our model does not predict a large-range expansion, but rather a large shift of up to 60 per cent in the geographical extent of the range. The model also predicts that 46-77 million additional people may be at risk of exposure by 2090. Future research could expand our analysis to include other environmental factors that influence tsetse populations and disease transmission such as humidity, as well as changes to human, livestock and wildlife distributions. The modelling approach presented here provides a framework for using the climate-sensitive aspects of vector and pathogen biology to predict changes in disease prevalence and risk owing to climate change.

Avian cholera, a threat to the viability of an Arctic seabird colony?

Evidence that infectious diseases cause wildlife population extirpation or extinction remains anecdotal and it is unclear whether the impacts of a pathogen at the individual level can scale up to population level so drastically. Here, we quantify the response of a Common eider colony to emerging epidemics of avian cholera, one of the most important infectious diseases affecting wild waterfowl. We show that avian cholera has the potential to drive colony extinction, even over a very short period. Extinction depends on disease severity (the impact of the disease on adult female survival) and disease frequency (the number of annual epidemics per decade). In case of epidemics of high severity (i.e., causing >30% mortality of breeding females), more than one outbreak per decade will be unsustainable for the colony and will likely lead to extinction within the next century; more than four outbreaks per decade will drive extinction to within 20 years. Such severity and frequency of avian cholera are already observed, and avian cholera might thus represent a significant threat to viability of breeding populations. However, this will depend on the mechanisms underlying avian cholera transmission, maintenance, and spread, which are currently only poorly known.

Frontiers in climate change-disease research

The notion that climate change will generally increase human and wildlife diseases has garnered considerable public attention, but remains controversial and seems inconsistent with the expectation that climate change will also cause parasite extinctions. In this review, we highlight the frontiers in climate change-infectious disease research by reviewing knowledge gaps that make this controversy difficult to resolve. We suggest that forecasts of climate-change impacts on disease can be improved by more interdisciplinary collaborations, better linking of data and models, addressing confounding variables and context dependencies, and applying metabolic theory to host-parasite systems with consideration of community-level interactions and functional traits. Finally, although we emphasize host-parasite interactions, we also highlight the applicability of these points to climate-change effects on species interactions in general.

Changing Geographic Distributions of Human Pathogens

Since the rise of modern humans, changes in demography and land use and frequent contact with wildlife and domesticated animals have created ongoing opportunities for pathogen loss, gain, and evolution in the human population. Early transportation networks and population expansion created a world where many human-specific pathogens are now ubiquitous, yet zoonoses continue to emerge as humans encroach into the last remaining wild areas, increase livestock production, and plug into vast global trade networks. Pathogens are exploiting almost any change in human ecology that provides new opportunities for transmission, the most recent being rampant use of antibiotics resulting in new multidrug-resistant pathogens. Public health advances have benefitted some nations, but others continue to suffer from pathogens long eradicated by developed nations. Generalities of pathogen occurrence aid in disease prediction, but a systemic approach incorporating ecology, biogeography, public health, and conservation biology is ultimately necessary to fully comprehend the changing geographic distributions of human pathogens.

Viral diversity and prevalence gradients in North American Pacific Coast grasslands

Host-pathogen interactions may be governed by the number of pathogens coexisting within an individual host (i.e., coinfection) and among different hosts, although most sampling in natural systems focuses on the prevalence of single pathogens and/or single hosts. We measured the prevalence of four barley and cereal yellow dwarf viruses (B/CYDVs) in three grass species at 26 natural grasslands along a 2000-km latitudinal gradient in the western United States and Canada. B/CYDVs are aphid-vectored RNA viruses that cause one of the most prevalent of all plant diseases worldwide. Pathogen prevalence and coinfection were uncorrelated, suggesting that different forces likely drive them. Coinfection, the number of viruses in a single infected host (alpha diversity), did not differ among host species but increased roughly twofold across our latitudinal transect. This increase in coinfection corresponded with a decline in among-host pathogen turnover (beta diversity), suggesting that B/CYDVs in northern populations experience less transmission limitation than in southern populations. In contrast to pathogen diversity, pathogen prevalence was a function of host identity as well as biotic and abiotic environmental conditions. Prevalence declined with precipitation and increased with soil nitrate concentration, an important limiting nutrient for hosts and vectors of B/CYDVs. This work demonstrates the need for further studies of processes governing coinfection, and the utility of applying theory developed to explain diversity in communities of free-living organisms to pathogen systems.

Challenges in predicting climate and environmental effects on vector-borne disease episystems in a changing world

Vector-borne pathogens cause enormous suffering to humans and animals. Many are expanding their range into new areas. Dengue, West Nile and Chikungunya have recently caused substantial human epidemics. Arthropod-borne animal diseases like Bluetongue, Rift Valley fever and African horse sickness pose substantial threats to livestock economies around the world. Climate change can impact the vector-borne disease epidemiology. Changes in climate will influence arthropod vectors, their life cycles and life histories, resulting in changes in both vector and pathogen distribution and changes in the ability of arthropods to transmit pathogens. Climate can affect the way pathogens interact with both the arthropod vector and the human or animal host. Predicting and mitigating the effects of future changes in the environment like climate change on the complex arthropod-pathogen-host epidemiological cycle requires understanding of a variety of complex mechanisms from the molecular to the population level. Although there has been substantial progress on many fronts the challenges to effectively understand and mitigate the impact of potential changes in the environment on vector-borne pathogens are formidable and at an early stage of development. The challenges will be explored using several arthropod-borne pathogen systems as illustration, and potential avenues to meet the challenges will be presented.