Pattern and Process in a Rapidly Changing World: Ideas and Approaches

AbstractScience is as dynamic as the world around us. Our ideas continually change, as do the approaches we use to study science. Few things remain invariant in this changing landscape, but a fascination with pattern and process is one that has endured throughout the history of science. Paying homage to this long-held tradition, the 2023 Vice Presidential Symposium of the American Society of Naturalists focused on the role of pattern and process in ecology and evolution. It brought together a group of early-career researchers working on topics ranging from genetic diversity in microbes to changing patterns of species interactions in the geological record. Their work spanned the taxonomic spectrum from microbes to mammals, the temporal dimension from the Cenozoic to the present, and approaches ranging from manipulative experiments to comparative approaches. In this introductory article, I discuss how these diverse topics are linked by the common thread of elucidating processes underlying patterns and how they collectively generate novel insights into diversity maintenance at different levels of organization.

Interactive Effects of Temperature, Aridity, and Plant Stoichiometry on Insect Herbivory: Past and Present

AbstractThe influence of climate on deep-time plant-insect interactions is becoming increasingly well known, with temperature, CO2 increases (and associated stoichiometric changes in plants), and aridity likely playing a critical role. In our modern climate, all three factors are shifting at an unprecedented rate, with uncertain consequences for biodiversity. To investigate effects of temperature, stoichiometry (specifically that of nitrogen), and aridity on insect herbivory, we explored insect herbivory in three modern floral assemblages and in 39 fossil floras, especially focusing on eight floras around a past hyperthermal event (the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum) from Bighorn Basin (BB). We find that higher temperatures were associated with increased herbivory in the past, especially among BB sites. In these BB sites, non-N2-fixing plants experienced a lower richness but higher frequency of herbivory damage than N2-fixing plants. Herbivory frequency but not richness was greater in BB sites compared with contemporaneous, nearby, but less arid sites from Hanna Basin. Compared with deep-time environments, herbivory frequency and richness are higher in modern sites, suggesting that current accelerated warming uniquely impacts plant-insect interactions. Overall, our work addresses multiple aspects of climate change using fossil data while also contextualizing the impact of modern anthropogenic change on Earth's most diverse interactions.

Landscape-level variability and insect herbivore outbreak captured within modern forests provides a framework for interpreting the fossil record

Temporal patterns of plant-insect interactions are readily observed within fossil datasets but spatial variability is harder to disentangle without comparable modern methods due to limitations in preservation. This is problematic as spatial variability influences community structure and interactions. To address this we replicated paleobotanical methods within three modern forests, creating an analogous dataset that rigorously tested inter- and intra-forest plant-insect variability. Random mixed effects models, non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) ordinations, and bipartite network- and node-level metrics were used. Total damage frequency and diversity did not differ across forests but differences in functional feeding groups (FFGs) were observed across forests, correlating with plant diversity, evenness, and latitude. Overall, we found higher generalized herbivory within the temperate forests than the wet-tropical, a finding also supported by co-occurrence and network analyses at multiple spatial scales. Intra-forest analyses captured consistent damage type communities, supporting paleobotanical efforts. Bipartite networks captured the feeding outbreak of Lymantria dispar caterpillars; an exciting result as insect outbreaks have long been unidentifiable within fossil datasets. These results support paleobotanical assumptions about fossil insect herbivore communities, provide a comparative framework between paleobotanical and modern communities, and suggest a new analytical framework for targeting modern and fossil outbreaks of insect feeding.

Sampling bias and the robustness of ecological metrics for plant-damage-type association networks

Plants and their insect herbivores have been a dominant component of the terrestrial ecological landscape for the past 410 million years and feature intricate evolutionary patterns and co-dependencies. A complex systems perspective allows for both detailed resolution of these evolutionary relationships as well as comparison and synthesis across systems. Using proxy data of insect herbivore damage (denoted by the damage type or DT) preserved on fossil leaves, functional bipartite network representations provide insights into how plant-insect associations depend on geological time, paleogeographical space, and environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation. However, the metrics measured from such networks are prone to sampling bias. Such sensitivity is of special concern for plant-DT association networks in paleontological settings where sampling effort is often severely limited. Here, we explore the sensitivity of functional bipartite network metrics to sampling intensity and identify sampling thresholds above which metrics appear robust to sampling effort. Across a broad range of sampling efforts, we find network metrics to be less affected by sampling bias and/or sample size than richness metrics, which are routinely used in studies of fossil plant-DT interactions. These results provide reassurance that cross-comparisons of plant-DT networks offer insights into network structure and function and support their widespread use in paleoecology. Moreover, these findings suggest novel opportunities for using plant-DT networks in neontological terrestrial ecology to understand functional aspects of insect herbivory across geological time, environmental perturbations, and geographic space.

Arthropod and Pathogen Damage on Fossil and Modern Plants: Exploring the Origins and Evolution of Herbivory on Land

The use of the functional feeding group-damage type system for analyzing arthropod and pathogen interactions with plants has transformed our understanding of herbivory in fossil plant assemblages by providing data, analyses, and interpretation of the local, regional, and global patterns of a 420-Myr history. The early fossil record can be used to answer major questions about the oldest evidence for herbivory, the early emergence of herbivore associations on land plants, and later expansion on seed plants. The subsequent effects of the Permian-Triassic ecological crisis on herbivore diversity, the resulting formation of biologically diverse herbivore communities on gymnosperms, and major shifts in herbivory ensuing from initial angiosperm diversification are additional issues that need to be addressed. Studies ofherbivory resulting from more recent transient spikes and longer-term climate trends provide important data that are applied to current global change and include herbivore community responses to latitude, altitude, and habitat. Ongoing paleoecological themes remaining to be addressed include the antiquity of modern interactions, differential herbivory between ferns and angiosperms, and origins of modern tropical forests. The expansion of databases that include a multitude of specimens; improvements in sampling strategies; development of new analytical methods; and, importantly, the ability to address conceptually stimulating ecological and evolutionary questions have provided new impetus in this rapidly advancing field.

An integrated leaf trait analysis of two Paleogene leaf floras

Objectives

This study presents the Integrated Leaf Trait Analysis (ILTA), a workflow for the combined application of methodologies in leaf trait and insect herbivory analyses on fossil dicot leaf assemblages. The objectives were (1) to record the leaf morphological variability, (2) to describe the herbivory pattern on fossil leaves, (3) to explore relations between leaf morphological trait combination types (TCTs), quantitative leaf traits, and other plant characteristics (e.g., phenology), and (4) to explore relations of leaf traits and insect herbivory.

Material and Methods

The leaves of the early Oligocene floras Seifhennersdorf (Saxony, Germany) and Suletice-Berand (Ústí nad Labem Region, Czech Republic) were analyzed. The TCT approach was used to record the leaf morphological patterns. Metrics based on damage types on leaves were used to describe the kind and extent of insect herbivory. The leaf assemblages were characterized quantitatively (e.g., leaf area and leaf mass per area (LM_A)) based on subsamples of 400 leaves per site. Multivariate analyses were performed to explore trait variations.

Results

In Seifhennersdorf, toothed leaves of TCT F from deciduous fossil-species are most frequent. The flora of Suletice-Berand is dominated by evergreen fossil-species, which is reflected by the occurrence of toothed and untoothed leaves with closed secondary venation types (TCTs A or E). Significant differences are observed for mean leaf area and LM_A, with larger leaves tending to lower LM_A in Seifhennersdorf and smaller leaves tending to higher LM_A in Suletice-Berand. The frequency and richness of damage types are significantly higher in Suletice-Berand than in Seifhennersdorf. In Seifhennersdorf, the evidence of damage types is highest on deciduous fossil-species, whereas it is highest on evergreen fossil-species in Suletice-Berand. Overall, insect herbivory tends to be more frequently to occur on toothed leaves (TCTs E, F, and P) that are of low LM_A. The frequency, richness, and occurrence of damage types vary among fossil-species with similar phenology and TCT. In general, they are highest on leaves of abundant fossil-species.

Discussion

TCTs reflect the diversity and abundance of leaf architectural types of fossil floras. Differences in TCT proportions and quantitative leaf traits may be consistent with local variations in the proportion of broad-leaved deciduous and evergreen elements in the ecotonal vegetation of the early Oligocene. A correlation between leaf size, LM_A, and fossil-species indicates that trait variations are partly dependent on the taxonomic composition. Leaf morphology or TCTs itself cannot explain the difference in insect herbivory on leaves. It is a more complex relationship where leaf morphology, LM_A, phenology, and taxonomic affiliation are crucial.

Rapid character scoring and tabulation of large leaf-image libraries using Adobe Bridge

Premise

Digital image libraries are an integral part of specimen-based research. However, coding and extracting metadata for hundreds of specimens on a personal computer can be complex. In addition, most existing workflows require downsampling or platform switching and do not link character data directly to the images.

Methods and Results

We demonstrate a method to code and embed into images the standard leaf architecture and insect-damage characters that are widely used in paleobotany. Using the visual file browser Adobe Bridge, customizable and searchable keywords can be applied directly and reversibly to individual full-resolution images, and the data can be extracted and formatted into a matrix using scripts.

Conclusions

Our approach is intuitive and acts as a digital mimic and complement to the experience of sorting and analyzing specimens in-person. Keywords can be easily customized for other data types that require visual sorting using image libraries.

Insect herbivory within modern forests is greater than fossil localities

Fossilized leaves provide the longest running record of hyperdiverse plant-insect herbivore associations. Reconstructions of these relationships over deep time indicate strong links between environmental conditions, herbivore diversity, and feeding damage on leaves. However, herbivory has not been compared between the past and the modern era, which is characterized by intense anthropogenic environmental change. Here, we present estimates for damage frequencies and diversities on fossil leaves from the Late Cretaceous (66.8 Ma) through the Pleistocene (2.06 Ma) and compare these estimates with Recent (post-1955) leaves collected via paleobotanical methods from modern ecosystems: Harvard Forest, United States; the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, United States; and La Selva, Costa Rica. Total damage frequency, measured as the percentage of leaves with any herbivore damage, within modern ecosystems is greater than any fossil locality within this record. This pattern is driven by increased frequencies across nearly all functional feeding groups within the Recent. Diversities of total, specialized, and mining damage types are elevated within the Recent compared with fossil floras. Our results demonstrate that plants in the modern era are experiencing unprecedented levels of insect damage, despite widespread insect declines. Human influence, such as the rate of global climate warming, influencing insect feeding and timing of life cycle processes along with urbanization and the introduction of invasive plant and insect species may drive elevated herbivory. This research suggests that the strength of human influence on plant-insect interactions is not controlled by climate change alone but rather, the way in which humans interact with terrestrial landscape.

Insect herbivory on Catula gettyi gen. et sp. nov. (Lauraceae) from the Kaiparowits Formation (Late Cretaceous, Utah, USA)

The Upper Cretaceous (Campanian Stage) Kaiparowits Formation of southern Utah, USA, preserves abundant plant, invertebrate, and vertebrate fossil taxa. Taken together, these fossils indicate that the ecosystems preserved in the Kaiparowits Formation were characterized by high biodiversity. Hundreds of vertebrate and invertebrate species and over 80 plant morphotypes are recognized from the formation, but insects and their associations with plants are largely undocumented. Here, we describe a new fossil leaf taxon, Catula gettyi gen et. sp. nov. in the family Lauraceae from the Kaiparowits Formation. Catula gettyi occurs at numerous localities in this deposit that represent ponded and distal floodplain environments. The type locality for C. gettyi has yielded 1,564 fossil leaf specimens of this species, which provides the opportunity to circumscribe this new plant species. By erecting this new genus and species, we are able to describe ecological associations on C. gettyi and place these interactions within a taxonomic context. We describe an extensive archive of feeding damage on C. gettyi caused by herbivorous insects, including more than 800 occurrences of insect damage belonging to five functional feeding groups indicating that insect-mediated damage on this taxon is both rich and abundant. Catula gettyi is one of the best-sampled host plant taxa from the Mesozoic Era, a poorly sampled time interval, and its insect damage is comparable to other Lauraceae taxa from the younger Late Cretaceous Hell Creek Flora of North Dakota, USA.

Fossil papilionoids of the Bowdichia clade (Leguminosae) from the Paleogene of North America

PREMISE

Understanding the evolutionary history of flowering plants has been enriched by the integration of molecular phylogenies and evidence from the fossil record. Fossil fruits and leaves from the late Paleocene and Eocene of Wyoming and Eocene of Kentucky and Tennessee are described as extinct genera in the tropical American Bowdichia clade of the legume subfamily Papilionoideae. Recent phylogenetic study and taxonomic revision of the Bowdichia clade have facilitated understanding of relationships of the fossil taxa and their evolutionary implications and paleoenvironmental significance.

METHODS

The fossils were studied using standard methods of specimen preparation and light microscopy and compared to fruits and leaves from extant legume taxa using herbarium collections. Phylogenetic relationships of the fossil taxa were assessed using morphology and DNA sequence data.

RESULTS

Two new fossil genera are described and their phylogenetic relationships are established. Paleobowdichia lamarensis is placed as sister to the extant genus Bowdichia and Tobya claibornensis is placed with the extant genera Guianodendron and Staminodianthus.

CONCLUSIONS

These fossils demonstrate that the tropical American Bowdichia clade was present in North America during a period when tropical or subtropical conditions prevailed in the northern Rocky Mountains during the late Paleocene and the Mississippi Embayment during the middle Eocene. These fossils also document that the Bowdichia clade had diversified by the late Paleocene when the fossil record of the family is relatively sparse. This result suggests that future work on early fossil legumes should focus on tropical and subtropical climatic zones, wherever they may occur latitudinally.

Ecology and Evolution of Gall-Inducing Arthropods: The Pattern From the Terrestrial Fossil Record

Insect and mite galls on land plants have a spotty but periodically rich and abundant fossil record of damage types (DTs), ichnotaxa, and informally described gall morphotypes. The earliest gall is on a liverwort of the Middle Devonian Period at 385 million years ago (Ma). A 70-million-year-long absence of documented gall activity ensues. Gall activity resumes during the Pennsylvanian Period (315 Ma) on vegetative and reproductive axial organs of horsetails, ferns, and probably conifers, followed by extensive diversification of small, early hemipteroid galler lineages on seed-plant foliage during the Permian Period. The end-Permian (P-Tr) evolutionary and ecological crisis extinguished most gall lineages; survivors diversified whose herbivore component communities surpassed pre-P-Tr levels within 10 million years in the mid-to late Triassic (242 Ma). During the late Triassic and Jurassic Period, new groups of galling insects colonized Ginkgoales, Bennettitales, Pinales, Gnetales, and other gymnosperms, but data are sparse. Diversifying mid-Cretaceous (125–90 Ma) angiosperms hosted a major expansion of 24 gall DTs organized as herbivore component communities, each in overlapping Venn-diagram fashion on early lineages of Austrobaileyales, Laurales, Chloranthales, and Eurosidae for the Dakota Fm (103 Ma). Gall diversification continued into the Ora Fm (92 Ma) of Israel with another 25 gall morphotypes, but as ichnospecies on a different spectrum of plant hosts alongside the earliest occurrence of parasitoid attack. The End-Cretaceous (K-Pg) extinction event (66 Ma) almost extinguished host–specialist DTs; surviving gall lineages expanded to a pre-K-Pg level 10 million years later at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) (56 Ma), at which time a dramatic increase of land surface temperatures and multiplying of atmospheric pCO2 levels induced a significant level of increased herbivory, although gall diversity increased only after the PETM excursion and during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). After the EECO, modern (or structurally convergent) gall morphotypes originate in the mid-Paleogene (49–40 Ma), evidenced by the Republic, Messel, and Eckfeld floras on hosts different from their modern analogs. During subsequent global aridification, the early Neogene (20 Ma) Most flora of the Czech Republic records several modern associations with gallers and plant hosts congeneric with their modern analogs. Except for 21 gall DTs in New Zealand flora, the gall record decreases in richness, although an early Pleistocene (3 Ma) study in France documents the same plant surviving as an endemic northern Iran but with decreasing associational, including gall, host specificity.

A case of long-term herbivory: specialized feeding trace on Parrotia (Hamamelidaceae) plant species

Interactions between plants and insects evolved during millions of years of coevolution and maintain the trophic balance of terrestrial ecosystems. Documenting insect damage types (DT) on fossil leaves is essential for understanding the evolution of plant-insect interactions and for understanding the effects of major environmental changes on ecosystem structure. However, research focusing on palaeoherbivory is still sparse and only a tiny fraction of fossil leaf collections have been analysed. This study documents a type of insect damage found exclusively on the leaves of Parrotia species (Hamamelidaceae). This DT was identified on Parrotia leaves from Willershausen (Germany, Pliocene) and from Shanwang (China, Miocene) and on their respective endemic modern relatives: Parrotia perisca in the Hyrcanian forests (Iran) and Parrotia subaequalis in the Yixing forest (China). Our study demonstrates that this insect DT persisted over at least 15 Myr spanning eastern Asia to western Europe. Against expectations, more examples of this type of herbivory were identified on the fossil leaves than on the modern examples. This mismatch may suggest a decline of this specialized plant-insect interaction owing to the contraction of Parrotia populations in Eurasia during the late Cenozoic. However, the continuous presence of this DT demonstrates a robust and long-term plant-herbivore association, and provides new evidence for a shared biogeographic history of the two host plants.

Applying machine learning to investigate long-term insect-plant interactions preserved on digitized herbarium specimens

PREMISE

Despite the economic significance of insect damage to plants (i.e., herbivory), long-term data documenting changes in herbivory are limited. Millions of pressed plant specimens are now available online and can be used to collect big data on plant-insect interactions during the Anthropocene.

METHODS

We initiated development of machine learning methods to automate extraction of herbivory data from herbarium specimens by training an insect damage detector and a damage type classifier on two distantly related plant species (Quercus bicolor and Onoclea sensibilis). We experimented with (1) classifying six types of herbivory and two control categories of undamaged leaf, and (2) detecting two of the damage categories for which several hundred annotations were available.

RESULTS

Damage detection results were mixed, with a mean average precision of 45% in the simultaneous detection and classification of two types of damage. However, damage classification on hand-drawn boxes identified the correct type of herbivory 81.5% of the time in eight categories. The damage classifier was accurate for categories with 100 or more test samples.

DISCUSSION

These tools are a promising first step for the automation of herbivory data collection. We describe ongoing efforts to increase the accuracy of these models, allowing researchers to extract similar data and apply them to biological hypotheses.

Insect herbivory dampens Subarctic birch forest C sink response to warming

Climate warming is anticipated to make high latitude ecosystems stronger C sinks through increasing plant production. This effect might, however, be dampened by insect herbivores whose damage to plants at their background, non-outbreak densities may more than double under climate warming. Here, using an open-air warming experiment among Subarctic birch forest field layer vegetation, supplemented with birch plantlets, we show that a 2.3 °C air and 1.2 °C soil temperature increase can advance the growing season by 1–4 days, enhance soil N availability, leaf chlorophyll concentrations and plant growth up to 400%, 160% and 50% respectively, and lead up to 122% greater ecosystem CO₂ uptake potential. However, comparable positive effects are also found when insect herbivory is reduced, and the effect of warming on C sink potential is intensified under reduced herbivory. Our results confirm the expected warming-induced increase in high latitude plant growth and CO₂ uptake, but also reveal that herbivorous insects may significantly dampen the strengthening of the CO₂ sink under climate warming.

Warming is expected to increase C sink capacity in high-latitude ecosystems, but plant-herbivore interactions could moderate or offset this effect. Here, Silfver and colleagues test individual and interactive effects of warming and insect herbivory in a field experiment in Subarctic forest, showing that even low intensity insect herbivory strongly reduces C sink potential.

Plant and insect herbivore community variation across the Paleocene-Eocene boundary in the Hanna Basin, southeastern Wyoming

Ecosystem function and stability are highly affected by internal and external stressors. Utilizing paleobotanical data gives insight into the evolutionary processes an ecosystem undergoes across long periods of time, allowing for a more complete understanding of how plant and insect herbivore communities are affected by ecosystem imbalance. To study how plant and insect herbivore communities change during times of disturbance, we quantified community turnover across the Paleocene--Eocene boundary in the Hanna Basin, southeastern Wyoming. This particular location is unlike other nearby Laramide basins because it has an abundance of late Paleocene and Eocene coal and carbonaceous shales and paucity of well-developed paleosols, suggesting perpetually high water availability. We sampled approximately 800 semi-intact dicot leaves from five stratigraphic levels, one of which occurs late in the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). Field collections were supplemented with specimens at the Denver Museum of Nature & Science. Fossil leaves were classified into morphospecies and herbivore damage was documented for each leaf. We tested for changes in plant and insect herbivore damage diversity using rarefaction and community composition using non-metric multidimensional scaling ordinations. We also documented changes in depositional environment at each stratigraphic level to better contextualize the environment of the basin. Plant diversity was highest during the mid-late Paleocene and decreased into the Eocene, whereas damage diversity was highest at the sites with low plant diversity. Plant communities significantly changed during the late PETM and do not return to pre-PETM composition. Insect herbivore communities also changed during the PETM, but, unlike plant communities, rebound to their pre-PETM structure. These results suggest that insect herbivore communities responded more strongly to plant community composition than to the diversity of species present.

The importance of sampling standardization for comparisons of insect herbivory in deep time: a case study from the late Palaeozoic

Sampling standardization has not been fully addressed for the study of insect herbivory in the fossil record. The effects of sampling within a single locality were explored almost a decade ago, but the importance of sampling standardization for comparisons of herbivory across space and time has not yet been evaluated. Here, we present a case study from the Permian in which we evaluate the impact of sampling standardization on comparisons of insect herbivory from two localities that are similar in age and floral composition. Comparisons of insect damage type (DT) diversity change dramatically when the number of leaves examined is standardized by surface area. This finding suggests that surface area should always be taken into account for comparisons of DT diversity. In addition, the three most common metrics of herbivory-DT diversity, proportion of leaves herbivorized and proportion of leaf surface area herbivorized-are inherently decoupled from each other. The decoupling of the diversity and intensity of insect herbivory necessitates a reinterpretation of published data because they had been conflated in previous studies. Future studies should examine the divergent ecological factors that underlie these metrics. We conclude with suggestions to guide the sampling and analysis of herbivorized leaves in the fossil record.

N2-fixing tropical legume evolution: a contributor to enhanced weathering through the Cenozoic?

Fossil and phylogenetic evidence indicates legume-rich modern tropical forests replaced Late Cretaceous palm-dominated tropical forests across four continents during the early Cenozoic (58-42 Ma). Tropical legume trees can transform ecosystems via their ability to fix dinitrogen (N2) and higher leaf N compared with non-legumes (35-65%), but it is unclear how their evolutionary rise contributed to silicate weathering, the long-term sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Here we hypothesize that the increasing abundance of N2-fixing legumes in tropical forests amplified silicate weathering rates by increased input of fixed nitrogen (N) to terrestrial ecosystems via interrelated mechanisms including increasing microbial respiration and soil acidification, and stimulating forest net primary productivity. We suggest the high CO2 early Cenozoic atmosphere further amplified legume weathering. Evolution of legumes with high weathering rates was probably driven by their high demand for phosphorus and micronutrients required for N2-fixation and nodule formation.

Hostplant change and paleoclimatic events explain diversification shifts in skipper butterflies (Family: Hesperiidae)

BACKGROUND

Skippers (Family: Hesperiidae) are a large group of butterflies with ca. 4000 species under 567 genera. The lack of a time-calibrated higher-level phylogeny of the group has precluded understanding of its evolutionary past. We here use a 10-gene dataset to reconstruct the most comprehensive time-calibrated phylogeny of the group, and explore factors that affected the diversification of these butterflies.

RESULTS

Ancestral state reconstructions show that the early hesperiid lineages utilized dicots as larval hostplants. The ability to feed on monocots evolved once at the K-Pg boundary (ca. 65 million years ago (Mya)), and allowed monocot-feeders to diversify much faster on average than dicot-feeders. The increased diversification rate of the monocot-feeding clade is specifically attributed to rate shifts in two of its descendant lineages. The first rate shift, a four-fold increase compared to background rates, happened ca. 50 Mya, soon after the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, in a lineage of the subfamily Hesperiinae that mostly fed on forest monocots. The second rate shift happened ca. 40 Mya in a grass-feeding lineage of Hesperiinae when open-habitat grasslands appeared in the Neotropics owing to gradual cooling of the atmospheric temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

The evolution of monocot feeding strongly influenced diversification of skippers. We hypothesize that although monocot feeding was an intrinsic trait that allowed exploration of novel niches, the lack of extensive availability of monocots comprised an extrinsic limitation for niche exploration. The shifts in diversification rate coincided with paleoclimatic events during which grasses and forest monocots were diversified.

High richness of insect herbivory from the early Miocene Hindon Maar crater, Otago, New Zealand

Plants and insects are key components of terrestrial ecosystems and insect herbivory is the most important type of interaction in these ecosystems. This study presents the first analysis of associations between plants and insects for the early Miocene Hindon Maar fossil lagerstätte, Otago, New Zealand. A total of 584 fossil angiosperm leaves representing 24 morphotypes were examined to determine the presence or absence of insect damage types. Of these leaves, 73% show signs of insect damage; they comprise 821 occurrences of damage from 87 damage types representing all eight functional feeding groups. In comparison to other fossil localities, the Hindon leaves display a high abundance of insect damage and a high diversity of damage types. Leaves of Nothofagus(southern beech), the dominant angiosperm in the fossil assemblage, exhibit a similar leaf damage pattern to leaves from the nearby mid to late Miocene Dunedin Volcano Group sites but display a more diverse spectrum and much higher percentage of herbivory damage than a comparable dataset of leaves from Palaeocene and Eocene sites in the Antarctic Peninsula.

Insect herbivory fluctuations through geological time

Arthropods and land plants are the major macroscopic sources of biodiversity on the planet. Knowledge of the organization and specialization of plant-herbivore interactions, such as their roles in food webs is important for understanding the processes for maintaining biodiversity. A limited number of studies have examined herbivory through geological time. The most have analyzed localities from one restricted interval within a geological period, or a time transition such as the Paleocene-Eocene boundary interval. In the present study, we analyzed the frequency of herbivory and density of damage type (DT) from the Middle Devonian to the early Miocene. The data were compiled from literature sources and focused on studies that describe occurrences of leaves with DTs indicating herbivore consumption as a proportion of the total number of leaves analyzed. The data were standardized based on the DT categories in the Damage Type Guide, and the age of each locality was updated based on the most recent geochronological standard and expressed in millions of years. Temperature and geological age were the best descriptors of the variation in herbivory frequency, which tended to increase at higher temperatures. Two models were equivalent to explain DT density: the interaction between CO₂ levels and geological age, and O₂ levels and geological age had the same predictive power. The density of DT tended to increase with higher content of atmospheric CO₂ and O₂ compared to modern values. The frequency of herbivory and the density of DTs appear to be influenced by long-term atmospheric variables.

Factors affecting population dynamics of leaf beetles in a subarctic region: The interplay between climate warming and pollution decline

Understanding the mechanisms by which abiotic drivers, such as climate and pollution, influence population dynamics of animals is important for our ability to predict the population trajectories of individual species under different global change scenarios. We monitored four leaf beetle species (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) feeding on willows (Salix spp.) in 13 sites along a pollution gradient in subarctic forests of north-western Russia from 1993 to 2014. During a subset of years, we also measured the impacts of natural enemies and host plant quality on the performance of one of these species, Chrysomela lapponica. Spring and fall temperatures increased by 2.5-3°C during the 21-year observation period, while emissions of sulfur dioxide and heavy metals from the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk decreased fivefold. However, contrary to predictions of increasing herbivory with climate warming, and in spite of discovered increase in host plant quality with increase in temperatures, none of the beetle species became more abundant during the past 20years. No directional trends were observed in densities of either Phratora vitellinae or Plagiodera versicolora, whereas densities of both C. lapponica and Gonioctena pallida showed a simultaneous rapid 20-fold decline in the early 2000s, remaining at very low levels thereafter. Time series analysis and model selection indicated that these abrupt population declines were associated with decreases in aerial emissions from the smelter. Observed declines in the population densities of C. lapponica can be explained by increases in mortality from natural enemies due to the combined action of climate warming and declining pollution. This pattern suggests that at least in some tri-trophic systems, top-down factors override bottom-up effects and govern the impacts of environmental changes on insect herbivores.

Why do trees die? Characterizing the drivers of background tree mortality

The drivers of background tree mortality rates-the typical low rates of tree mortality found in forests in the absence of acute stresses like drought-are central to our understanding of forest dynamics, the effects of ongoing environmental changes on forests, and the causes and consequences of geographical gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions. To shed light on factors contributing to background tree mortality, we analyzed detailed pathological data from 200,668 tree-years of observation and 3,729 individual tree deaths, recorded over a 13-yr period in a network of old-growth forest plots in California's Sierra Nevada mountain range. We found that: (1) Biotic mortality factors (mostly insects and pathogens) dominated (58%), particularly in larger trees (86%). Bark beetles were the most prevalent (40%), even though there were no outbreaks during the study period; in contrast, the contribution of defoliators was negligible. (2) Relative occurrences of broad classes of mortality factors (biotic, 58%; suppression, 51%; and mechanical, 25%) are similar among tree taxa, but may vary with tree size and growth rate. (3) We found little evidence of distinct groups of mortality factors that predictably occur together on trees. Our results have at least three sets of implications. First, rather than being driven by abiotic factors such as lightning or windstorms, the "ambient" or "random" background mortality that many forest models presume to be independent of tree growth rate is instead dominated by biotic agents of tree mortality, with potentially critical implications for forecasting future mortality. Mechanistic models of background mortality, even for healthy, rapidly growing trees, must therefore include the insects and pathogens that kill trees. Second, the biotic agents of tree mortality, instead of occurring in a few predictable combinations, may generally act opportunistically and with a relatively large degree of independence from one another. Finally, beyond the current emphasis on folivory and leaf defenses, studies of broad-scale gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions should also include biotic attacks on, and defenses of, tree stems and roots.

Consequences of elevated temperature and pCO2 on insect folivory at the ecosystem level: perspectives from the fossil record

Paleoecological studies document the net effects of atmospheric and climate change in a natural laboratory over timescales not accessible to laboratory or ecological studies. Insect feeding damage is visible on well‐preserved fossil leaves, and changes in leaf damage through time can be compared to environmental changes. We measured percent leaf area damaged on four fossil leaf assemblages from the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming, that range in age from 56.1 to 52.65 million years (Ma). We also include similar published data from three US sites 49.4 to ~45 Ma in our analyses. Regional climate was subtropical or warmer throughout this period, and the second oldest assemblage (56 Ma) was deposited during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a geologically abrupt global warming event caused by massive release of carbon into the atmosphere. Total and leaf‐chewing damage are highest during the PETM, whether considering percent area damaged on the bulk flora, the average of individual host plants, or a single plant host that occurs at multiple sites. Another fossil assemblage in our study, the 52.65 Ma Fifteenmile Creek paleoflora, also lived during a period of globally high temperature and pCO₂, but does not have elevated herbivory. Comparison of these two sites, as well as regression analyses conducted on the entire dataset, demonstrates that, over long timescales, temperature and pCO₂ are uncorrelated with total insect consumption at the ecosystem level. Rather, the most important factor affecting herbivory is the relative abundance of plants with nitrogen‐fixing symbionts. Legumes dominate the PETM site; their prevalence would have decreased nitrogen limitation across the ecosystem, buffering generalist herbivore populations against decreased leaf nutritional quality that commonly occurs at high pCO₂. We hypothesize that nitrogen concentration regulates the opposing effects of elevated temperature and CO₂ on insect abundance and thereby total insect consumption, which has important implications for agricultural practices in today's world of steadily increasing pCO₂.

Changes in the background losses of woody plant foliage to insects during the past 60 years: are the predictions fulfilled?

The existing scenarios generally predict that herbivory will increase with climate warming. An analysis of the published data on the background foliar losses of woody plants to insects in natural ecosystems across the globe from 1952 to 2013 provided no support for this hypothesis. We detected no temporal trend in herbivory within the temperate climate zone and a significant decrease in herbivory in the tropics. From 1964 to 1990, herbivory in the tropics was 39% higher than in the temperate region, but these differences disappeared by the beginning of the 2000s. Thus, environmental changes have already disturbed one of the global ecological patterns--the decrease in herbivory with latitude--by affecting ecosystem processes differently in tropical and temperate climate zones.

Defense pattern of Chinese cork oak across latitudinal gradients: influences of ontogeny, herbivory, climate and soil nutrients

Knowledge of latitudinal patterns in plant defense and herbivory is crucial for understanding the mechanisms that govern ecosystem functioning and for predicting their responses to climate change. Using a widely distributed species in East Asia, Quercus variabilis, we aim to reveal defense patterns of trees with respect to ontogeny along latitudinal gradients. Six leaf chemical (total phenolics and total condensed tannin concentrations) and physical (cellulose, hemicellulose, lignin and dry mass concentration) defensive traits as well as leaf herbivory (% leaf area loss) were investigated in natural Chinese cork oak (Q. variabilis) forests across two ontogenetic stages (juvenile and mature trees) along a ~14°-latitudinal gradient. Our results showed that juveniles had higher herbivory values and a higher concentration of leaf chemical defense substances compared with mature trees across the latitudinal gradient. In addition, chemical defense and herbivory in both ontogenetic stages decreased with increasing latitude, which supports the latitudinal herbivory-defense hypothesis and optimal defense theory. The identified trade-offs between chemical and physical defense were primarily determined by environmental variation associated with the latitudinal gradient, with the climatic factors (annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month) largely contributing to the latitudinal defense pattern in both juvenile and mature oak trees.

Drought and leaf herbivory influence floral volatiles and pollinator attraction

The effects of climate change on species interactions are poorly understood. Investigating the mechanisms by which species interactions may shift under altered environmental conditions will help form a more predictive understanding of such shifts. In particular, components of climate change have the potential to strongly influence floral volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and, in turn, plant-pollinator interactions. In this study, we experimentally manipulated drought and herbivory for four forb species to determine effects of these treatments and their interactions on (1) visual plant traits traditionally associated with pollinator attraction, (2) floral VOCs, and (3) the visitation rates and community composition of pollinators. For all forbs tested, experimental drought universally reduced flower size and floral display, but there were species-specific effects of drought on volatile emissions per flower, the composition of compounds produced, and subsequent pollinator visitation rates. Moreover, the community of pollinating visitors was influenced by drought across forb species (i.e. some pollinator species were deterred by drought while others were attracted). Together, these results indicate that VOCs may provide more nuanced information to potential floral visitors and may be relatively more important than visual traits for pollinator attraction, particularly under shifting environmental conditions.

Different rates of defense evolution and niche preferences in clonal and nonclonal milkweeds (Asclepias spp.)

Given the dual role of many plant traits to tolerate both herbivore attack and abiotic stress, the climatic niche of a species should be integrated into the study of plant defense strategies. Here we investigate the impact of plant reproductive strategy and components of species' climatic niche on the rate of chemical defense evolution in the milkweeds using a common garden experiment of 49 species. We found that across Asclepias species, clonal reproduction repeatedly evolved in lower temperature conditions, in species generally producing low concentrations of a toxic defense (cardenolides). Additionally, we found that rates of cardenolide evolution were lower for clonal than for nonclonal species. We thus conclude that because the clonal strategy is based on survival, long generation times, and is associated with tolerance of herbivory, it may be an alternative to toxicity in colder ecosystems. Taken together, these results indicate that the rate of chemical defense evolution is influenced by the intersection of life-history strategy and climatic niches into which plants radiate.

Novel insect leaf-mining after the end-Cretaceous extinction and the demise of cretaceous leaf miners, Great Plains, USA

Plant and associated insect-damage diversity in the western U.S.A. decreased significantly at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary and remained low until the late Paleocene. However, the Mexican Hat locality (ca. 65 Ma) in southeastern Montana, with a typical, low-diversity flora, uniquely exhibits high damage diversity on nearly all its host plants, when compared to all known local and regional early Paleocene sites. The same plant species show minimal damage elsewhere during the early Paleocene. We asked whether the high insect damage diversity at Mexican Hat was more likely related to the survival of Cretaceous insects from refugia or to an influx of novel Paleocene taxa. We compared damage on 1073 leaf fossils from Mexican Hat to over 9000 terminal Cretaceous leaf fossils from the Hell Creek Formation of nearby southwestern North Dakota and to over 9000 Paleocene leaf fossils from the Fort Union Formation in North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming. We described the entire insect-feeding ichnofauna at Mexican Hat and focused our analysis on leaf mines because they are typically host-specialized and preserve a number of diagnostic morphological characters. Nine mine damage types attributable to three of the four orders of leaf-mining insects are found at Mexican Hat, six of them so far unique to the site. We found no evidence linking any of the diverse Hell Creek mines with those found at Mexican Hat, nor for the survival of any Cretaceous leaf miners over the K-Pg boundary regionally, even on well-sampled, surviving plant families. Overall, our results strongly relate the high damage diversity on the depauperate Mexican Hat flora to an influx of novel insect herbivores during the early Paleocene, possibly caused by a transient warming event and range expansion, and indicate drastic extinction rather than survivorship of Cretaceous insect taxa from refugia.

Insect leaf-chewing damage tracks herbivore richness in modern and ancient forests

The fossil record demonstrates that past climate changes and extinctions significantly affected the diversity of insect leaf-feeding damage, implying that the richness of damage types reflects that of the unsampled damage makers, and that the two are correlated through time. However, this relationship has not been quantified for living leaf-chewing insects, whose richness and mouthpart convergence have obscured their value for understanding past and present herbivore diversity. We hypothesized that the correlation of leaf-chewing damage types (DTs) and damage maker richness is directly observable in living forests. Using canopy access cranes at two lowland tropical rainforest sites in Panamá to survey 24 host-plant species, we found significant correlations between the numbers of leaf chewing insect species collected and the numbers of DTs observed to be made by the same species in feeding experiments, strongly supporting our hypothesis. Damage type richness was largely driven by insect species that make multiple DTs. Also, the rank-order abundances of DTs recorded at the Panamá sites and across a set of latest Cretaceous to middle Eocene fossil floras were highly correlated, indicating remarkable consistency of feeding-mode distributions through time. Most fossil and modern host-plant pairs displayed high similarity indices for their leaf-chewing DTs, but informative differences and trends in fossil damage composition became apparent when endophytic damage was included. Our results greatly expand the potential of insect-mediated leaf damage for interpreting insect herbivore richness and compositional heterogeneity from fossil floras and, equally promisingly, in living forests.

Highly resolved early Eocene food webs show development of modern trophic structure after the end-Cretaceous extinction

Generalities of food web structure have been identified for extant ecosystems. However, the trophic organization of ancient ecosystems is unresolved, as prior studies of fossil webs have been limited by low-resolution, high-uncertainty data. We compiled highly resolved, well-documented feeding interaction data for 700 taxa from the 48 million-year-old latest early Eocene Messel Shale, which contains a species assemblage that developed after an interval of protracted environmental and biotal change during and following the end-Cretaceous extinction. We compared the network structure of Messel lake and forest food webs to extant webs using analyses that account for scale dependence of structure with diversity and complexity. The Messel lake web, with 94 taxa, displays unambiguous similarities in structure to extant webs. While the Messel forest web, with 630 taxa, displays differences compared to extant webs, they appear to result from high diversity and resolution of insect–plant interactions, rather than substantive differences in structure. The evidence presented here suggests that modern trophic organization developed along with the modern Messel biota during an 18 Myr interval of dramatic post-extinction change. Our study also has methodological implications, as the Messel forest web analysis highlights limitations of current food web data and models.

A paleobiologic perspective on plant-insect interactions

Fossil plant-insect associations (PIAs) such as herbivory and pollination have become increasingly relevant to paleobiology and biology. Researchers studying fossil PIAs now employ procedures for assuring unbiased representation of field specimens, use of varied analytical quantitative techniques, and address ecological and evolutionarily important issues. For herbivory, the major developments are: Late Silurian-Middle Devonian (ca. 420-385Ma) origin of herbivory; Late Pennsylvanian (318-299Ma) expansion of herbivory; Permian (299-252Ma) herbivore colonization of new habitats; consequences of the end-Permian (252Ma) global crisis; early Mesozoic (ca. 235-215Ma) rediversification of plants and herbivores; end-Cretaceous (66.5Ma) effects on extinction; and biological effects of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) (55.8Ma). For pollination, salient issues include: Permian pollination evidence; the plant hosts of mid-Mesozoic (ca. 160-110Ma) long-proboscid pollinators; and effect of the angiosperm revolution (ca. 125-90Ma) on earlier pollinator relationships. Multispecies interaction studies, such as contrasting damage types with insect diversity and establishing robust food webs, expand the compass and relevance of past PIAs.

Deep-time patterns of tissue consumption by terrestrial arthropod herbivores

A survey of the fossil record of land-plant tissues and their damage by arthropods reveals several results that shed light on trophic trends in host-plant resource use by arthropods. All 14 major plant tissues were present by the end of the Devonian, representing the earliest 20% of the terrestrial biota. During this interval, two types of time lags separate the point between when tissues first originated from their earliest consumption by herbivorous arthropods. For epidermis, parenchyma, collenchyma and xylem, live tissue consumption was rapid, occurring on average 10 m.y. after the earliest tissue records. By contrast, structural tissues (periderm, sclerenchyma), tissues with actively dividing cells (apical, lateral, intercalary meristems), and reproductive tissues (spores, megagametophytes, integuments) experienced approximately a 9-fold (92 m.y.) delay in arthropod herbivory, extending well into the Carboniferous Period. Phloem similarly presents a delay of 85 m.y., but this incongruously long lag-time may be attributed to the lack of preservation of this tissue in early vascular plants. Nevertheless, the presence of phloem can be indicated from planar spaces adjacent well-preserved xylem, or inferred from a known anatomy of the same plant taxon in better preserved material, especially permineralisations. The trophic partitioning of epidermis, parenchyma, phloem and xylem increases considerably to the present, probably a consequence of dietary specialization or consumption of whole leaves by several herbivore functional feeding groups. Structural tissues, meristematic tissues and reproductive tissues minimally have been consumed throughout the fossil record, consistent with their long lags to herbivory during the earlier Paleozoic. Neither angiosperm dominance in floras nor global environmental perturbations had any discernible effect on herbivore trophic partitioning of plant tissues.

Testing for the effects and consequences of mid paleogene climate change on insect herbivory

Background

The Eocene, a time of fluctuating environmental change and biome evolution, was generally driven by exceptionally warm temperatures. The Messel (47.8 Ma) and Eckfeld (44.3 Ma) deposits offer a rare opportunity to take a census of two, deep-time ecosystems occurring during a greenhouse system. An understanding of the long-term consequences of extreme warming and cooling events during this interval, particularly on angiosperms and insects that dominate terrestrial biodiversity, can provide insights into the biotic consequences of current global climatic warming.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compare insect-feeding damage within two middle Eocene fossil floras, Messel and Eckfeld, in Germany. From these small lake deposits, we studied 16,082 angiosperm leaves and scored each specimen for the presence or absence of 89 distinctive and diagnosable insect damage types (DTs), each of which was allocated to a major functional feeding group, including four varieties of external foliage feeding, piercing- and-sucking, leaf mining, galling, seed predation, and oviposition. Methods used for treatment of presence–absence data included general linear models and standard univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results show an unexpectedly high diversity and level of insect feeding than comparable, penecontemporaneous floras from North and South America. In addition, we found a higher level of herbivory on evergreen, rather than deciduous taxa at Messel. This pattern is explained by a ca. 2.5-fold increase in atmospheric CO₂ that overwhelmed evergreen antiherbivore defenses, subsequently lessened during the more ameliorated levels of Eckfeld times. These patterns reveal important, previously undocumented features of plant-host and insect-herbivore diversification during the European mid Eocene.

Global patterns of leaf defenses in oak species

Plant defensive traits drive patterns of herbivory and herbivore diversity among plant species. Over the past 30 years, several prominent hypotheses have predicted the association of plant defenses with particular abiotic environments or geographic regions. We used a strongly supported phylogeny of oaks to test whether defensive traits of 56 oak species are associated with particular components of their climatic niche. Climate predicted both the chemical leaf defenses and the physical leaf defenses of oaks, whether analyzed separately or in combination. Oak leaf defenses were higher at lower latitudes, and this latitudinal gradient could be explained entirely by climate. Using phylogenetic regression methods, we found that plant defenses tended to be greater in oak species that occur in regions with low temperature seasonality, mild winters, and low minimum precipitation, and that plant defenses may track the abiotic environment slowly over macroevolutionary time. The pattern of association we observed between oak leaf traits and abiotic environments was consistent with a combination of a seasonality gradient, which may relate to different herbivore pressures, and the resource availability hypothesis, which posits that herbivores exert greater selection on plants in resource-limited abiotic environments.

Putting plant resistance traits on the map: a test of the idea that plants are better defended at lower latitudes

• It has long been believed that plant species from the tropics have higher levels of traits associated with resistance to herbivores than do species from higher latitudes. A meta-analysis recently showed that the published literature does not support this theory. However, the idea has never been tested using data gathered with consistent methods from a wide range of latitudes. • We quantified the relationship between latitude and a broad range of chemical and physical traits across 301 species from 75 sites world-wide. • Six putative resistance traits, including tannins, the concentration of lipids (an indicator of oils, waxes and resins), and leaf toughness were greater in high-latitude species. Six traits, including cyanide production and the presence of spines, were unrelated to latitude. Only ash content (an indicator of inorganic substances such as calcium oxalates and phytoliths) and the properties of species with delayed greening were higher in the tropics. • Our results do not support the hypothesis that tropical plants have higher levels of resistance traits than do plants from higher latitudes. If anything, plants have higher resistance toward the poles. The greater resistance traits of high-latitude species might be explained by the greater cost of losing a given amount of leaf tissue in low-productivity environments.

Sensitivity of leaf size and shape to climate: global patterns and paleoclimatic applications

• Paleobotanists have long used models based on leaf size and shape to reconstruct paleoclimate. However, most models incorporate a single variable or use traits that are not physiologically or functionally linked to climate, limiting their predictive power. Further, they often underestimate paleotemperature relative to other proxies. • Here we quantify leaf-climate correlations from 92 globally distributed, climatically diverse sites, and explore potential confounding factors. Multiple linear regression models for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) are developed and applied to nine well-studied fossil floras. • We find that leaves in cold climates typically have larger, more numerous teeth, and are more highly dissected. Leaf habit (deciduous vs evergreen), local water availability, and phylogenetic history all affect these relationships. Leaves in wet climates are larger and have fewer, smaller teeth. Our multivariate MAT and MAP models offer moderate improvements in precision over univariate approaches (± 4.0 vs 4.8°C for MAT) and strong improvements in accuracy. For example, our provisional MAT estimates for most North American fossil floras are considerably warmer and in better agreement with independent paleoclimate evidence. • Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of additional leaf traits that are functionally linked to climate improves paleoclimate reconstructions. This work also illustrates the need for better understanding of the impact of phylogeny and leaf habit on leaf-climate relationships.

Paleotemperature proxies from leaf fossils reinterpreted in light of evolutionary history

Present-day correlations between leaf physiognomic traits (shape and size) and climate are widely used to estimate paleoclimate using fossil floras. For example, leaf-margin analysis estimates paleotemperature using the modern relation of mean annual temperature (MAT) and the site-proportion of untoothed-leaf species (NT). This uniformitarian approach should provide accurate paleoclimate reconstructions under the core assumption that leaf-trait variation principally results from adaptive environmental convergence, and because variation is thus largely independent of phylogeny it should be constant through geologic time. Although much research acknowledges and investigates possible pitfalls in paleoclimate estimation based on leaf physiognomy, the core assumption has never been explicitly tested in a phylogenetic comparative framework. Combining an extant dataset of 21 leaf traits and temperature with a phylogenetic hypothesis for 569 species-site pairs at 17 sites, we found varying amounts of non-random phylogenetic signal in all traits. Phylogenetic vs. standard regressions generally support prevailing ideas that leaf-traits are adaptively responding to temperature, but wider confidence intervals, and shifts in slope and intercept, indicate an overall reduced ability to predict climate precisely due to the non-random phylogenetic signal. Notably, the modern-day relation of proportion of untoothed taxa with mean annual temperature (NT-MAT), central in paleotemperature inference, was greatly modified and reduced, indicating that the modern correlation primarily results from biogeographic history. Importantly, some tooth traits, such as number of teeth, had similar or steeper slopes after taking phylogeny into account, suggesting that leaf teeth display a pattern of exaptive evolution in higher latitudes. This study shows that the assumption of convergence required for precise, quantitative temperature estimates using present-day leaf traits is not supported by empirical evidence, and thus we have very low confidence in previously published, numerical paleotemperature estimates. However, interpreting qualitative changes in paleotemperature remains warranted, given certain conditions such as stratigraphically closely-spaced samples with floristic continuity.