Impact of Lifestyle and Metformin Interventions on the Risk of Progression to Diabetes and Regression to Normal Glucose Regulation in Overweight or Obese People With Impaired Glucose Regulation

HIV and type 2 diabetes: An evolving story

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes is widely reported to be more common in people living with HIV (PLWH). Much of the data supporting this originated during the earlier HIV era. The perceived increased risk of type 2 diabetes is reflected in HIV clinical guidelines that recommend screening for diabetes in PLWH on anti-retroviral therapy (ART). However, international HIV clinical guidelines do not agree on the best marker of glycaemia to screen for diabetes. This stems from studies that suggest HbA1c underestimates glycaemia in PLWH.

METHODS

Within this review we summarise the literature surrounding the association of HIV and type 2 diabetes and how this has changed over time. We also present the evidence on HbA1c discrepancy in PLWH.

CONCLUSION

We suggest there is no basis to any international guidelines to restrict HbA1c based on HIV serostatus. We recommend, using the current evidence, that PLWH should be screened annually for diabetes in keeping with country specific guidance. Finally, we suggest future work to elucidate phenotype and natural history of type 2 diabetes in PLWH across all populations.

Association between estimated glomerular filtration rate and reversion to normoglycemia in people with impaired fasting glucose: a 5-year retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The present body of evidence regarding the correlation between the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the reversal of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) to normoglycemia remains constrained. Consequently, the objective of our study is to examine the relationship between eGFR and the restoration of normoglycemia in individuals with IFG.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study consecutively collected data from 24,541 non-selective participants with IFG at Rich Healthcare Group in China from January 2010 to 2016. We aimed to investigate the association between baseline eGFR and reversion to normoglycemia using the Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Through the utilization of a Cox proportional hazards regression model featuring cubical spline smoothing, we were able to ascertain the non-linear correlation between eGFR and the return to normoglycemia. Furthermore, various sensitivity and subgroup analyses were carried out, and a competing risk multivariate Cox regression was employed to examine the progression to diabetes as a competing risk for the reversal of normoglycemic events.

RESULTS

In our study, comprising 24,541 participants, the average age was 49.25 ± 13.77 years, with 66.28% being male. The baseline eGFR mean was 104.16 ± 15.78 ml/min per 1.73 m2. During a median follow-up period of 2.89 years, we observed a reversion rate to normoglycemia of 45.50%. Upon controlling for covariates, our findings indicated a positive correlation between eGFR and the probability of returning to normoglycemia (HR = 1.008, 95% CI 1.006-1.009). In addition, a non-linear association was observed between eGFR and the likelihood of transitioning from IFG to normoglycemia. The inflection point of eGFR was found to be 111.962 ml/min per 1.73 m2, with HRs of 1.003 (95% CI 1.001, 1.005) on the left side of the point and 1.019 (95% CI 1.015, 1.022) on the right side. Our robust results were supported by competing risks multivariate Cox's regression and sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of our investigation indicate a favorable and non-linear correlation between eGFR and the restoration of normoglycemia in Chinese individuals with IFG. Specifically, a reduction in renal function at an early stage in these patients may considerably diminish the likelihood of attaining normoglycemia.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Elevated triglyceride-glucose-body mass index associated with lower probability of future regression to normoglycemia in Chinese adults with prediabetes: a 5-year cohort study

Objective

Despite the clear association of TyG-BMI with prediabetes and the progression of diabetes, no study to date has examined the relationship between TyG-BMI and the reversal of prediabetes to normoglycemia.

Methods

25,279 participants with prediabetes who had physical examinations between 2010 and 2016 were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study. The relationship between baseline TyG-BMI and regression to normoglycemia from prediabetes was examined using the Cox proportional hazards regression model in this study. Additionally, the nonlinear association between TyG-BMI and the likelihood of regression to normoglycemia was investigated using the Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline function. Competing risk multivariate Cox regression analysis was conducted, with progression to diabetes as a competing risk for prediabetes reversal to normoglycemia. Furthermore, subgroup analyses and a series of sensitivity analyses were performed.

Results

After adjusting for covariates, the results showed that TyG-BMI was negatively associated with the probability of returning to normoglycemia (per 10 units, HR=0.970, 95% CI: 0.965, 0.976). They were also nonlinearly related, with an inflection point for TyG-BMI of 196.46. The effect size (HR) for TyG-BMI to the right of the inflection point (TyG-BMI ≥ 196.46) and the probability of return of normoglycemia was 0.962 (95% CI: 0.954, 0.970, per 10 units). In addition, the competing risks model found a negative correlation between TyG-BMI and return to normoglycemia (SHR=0.97, 95% CI: 0.96-0.98). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the robustness of our results.

Conclusion

This study demonstrated a negative and nonlinear relationship between TyG-BMI and return to normoglycemia in Chinese adults with prediabetes. Through active intervention, the combined reduction of BMI and TG levels to bring TyG-BMI down to 196.46 could significantly increase the probability of returning to normoglycemia.

Association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and reversion to normoglycemia from prediabetes: an analysis based on data from a retrospective cohort study

The available evidence on the connection between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels and the reversion from prediabetes (Pre-DM) to normoglycemia is currently limited. The present research sought to examine the connection between HDL-C levels and the regression from Pre-DM to normoglycemia in a population of Chinese adults. This historical cohort study collected 15,420 Pre-DM patients in China who underwent health screening between 2010 and 2016. The present research used the Cox proportional hazards regression model to investigate the connection between HDL-C levels and reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia. The Cox proportional hazards regression model with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting was employed to ascertain the nonlinear association between HDL-C and reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia. Furthermore, a set of sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses were employed. Following the adjustment of covariates, the findings revealed a positive connection between HDL-C levels and the likelihood of reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia (HR 1.898, 95% CI 1.758-2.048, P < 0.001). Furthermore, there was a non-linear relationship between HDL-C and the reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia in both genders, and the inflection point of HDL-C was 1.540 mmol/L in males and 1.620 mmol/L in females. We found a strong positive correlation between HDL-C and the reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia on the left of the inflection point (Male: HR 2.783, 95% CI 2.373-3.263; Female: HR 2.217, 95% CI 1.802-2.727). Our sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of these findings. Subgroup analyses indicated that patients with SBP < 140 mmHg and ever smoker exhibited a more pronounced correlation between HDL-C levels and the reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia. In contrast, a less robust correlation was observed among patients with SBP ≥ 140 mmHg, current and never smokers. This study provides evidence of a positive and nonlinear association between HDL-C levels and the reversion from Pre-DM to normoglycemia in Chinese patients. Implementing intensified intervention measures to control the HDL-C levels of patients with Pre-DM around the inflection point may substantially enhance the likelihood of regression to normoglycemia.

Prevalence of Testing for Diabetes Among US Adults With Overweight or Obesity, 2016-2019

Introduction

Screening for prediabetes and type 2 diabetes may allow earlier detection, diagnosis, and treatment. The US Preventive Services Task Force recommends screening every 3 years for abnormal blood glucose among adults aged 40 to 70 years with overweight or obesity. Using IQVIA Ambulatory Electronic Medical Records, we estimated the proportion of adults aged 40 to 70 years with overweight or obesity who received blood glucose testing within 3 years from baseline in 2016.

Methods

We identified 1,338,509 adults aged 40 to 70 years with overweight or obesity in 2016 and without pre-existing diabetes. We included adults whose records were present in the data set for at least 2 years before their index body mass index (BMI) in 2016 and 3 years after the index BMI (2017-2019), during which we examined the occurrence of blood glucose testing. We calculated the unadjusted and adjusted prevalence of receiving blood glucose testing.

Results

The unadjusted prevalence of receiving blood glucose testing was 33.4% when it was defined as having a hemoglobin A1c or fasting plasma glucose measure. The unadjusted prevalence was 74.3% when we expanded the definition of testing to include random plasma glucose and unspecified glucose measures. Adults with obesity were more likely to receive the test than those with overweight. Men (vs women) and adults aged 50 to 59 years (vs other age groups) had higher testing rates.

Conclusion

Our findings could inform clinical and public health promotion efforts to improve screening for blood glucose levels among adults with overweight or obesity.

Combined effect of adiposity and elevated inflammation on incident type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Adiposity and elevated inflammation are two hallmarks of hyperglycemia. However, it is unknown whether clustering of elevated inflammation and adiposity interact act on diabetogenesis and lead to a greater risk for incident type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

Adiposity was indicated by body mass index, waist circumference and ultrasonography-measured fatty liver degrees. Elevated inflammation was indicated as high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels ≥ 2 mg/L. Time-to-event survival analyses were conducted to investigate the joint effect of adiposity and inflammation on incident T2D on both multiplicative and additive scales.

RESULTS

Among 82,172 non-diabetic participants from a prospective cohort in China, 14,278 T2D occurred over a median follow-up of 11 years. In the multivariable-adjusted model, elevated inflammation [1.12 (1.08‒1.16)] and adiposity [1.76 (1.69‒1.83) for overweight/obesity, 1.49 (1.44‒1.55) for central obesity, and 2.02 (1.95‒2.09) for fatty liver] were significantly associated with incident diabetes. Higher adiposity-associated risks and incidence rates of diabetes were observed with elevated inflammation. When studying the joint effect, the adjusted HRs were 1.77 (1.69‒1.85) for overweight/obesity, 1.14 (1.06‒1.23) for elevated inflammation, and 2.08 (1.97‒2.19) for their joint effect, with a relative excess risk due to interaction of 0.17 (0.05‒0.28). The attributable proportions were 71.30% for overweight/obesity, 12.96% for elevated inflammation, and 15.74% for their interaction. Similar results were observed when adiposity was assessed as waist circumference or fatty liver.

CONCLUSIONS

Adiposity and elevated inflammation synergically lead to greater risks of incident diabetes than addition of each individual exposure. Strategies simultaneously targeting both risks should produce more benefits for diabetes prevention than through initiatives directed at each separate risk.

Triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio is associated with regression to normoglycemia from prediabetes in adults: a 5-year cohort study in China

OBJECTIVE

The current body of evidence on the association between the ratio of triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-c) and the reversal of prediabetes to normoglycemia remains limited. The aim of this study is to investigate the association between TG/HDL-c and the reversion to normoglycemia in patients with prediabetes.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 15,107 individuals with prediabetes from 32 Chinese districts and 11 cities who completed health checks from 2010 to 2016. The Cox proportional-hazards regression model examined baseline TG/HDL-c and reversion to normoglycemia from prediabetes. Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting determined the non-linear connection between TG/HDL-c and reversion to normoglycemia. We also ran sensitivity and subgroup analysis. By characterizing progression to diabetes as a competing risk for the reversal of prediabetes to normoglycemic event, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model with competing risks was created.

RESULTS

Upon adjusting for covariates, the findings indicate a negative association between TG/HDL-c and the likelihood of returning to normoglycemia (HR = 0.869, 95%CI:0.842-0.897). Additionally, a non-linear relationship between TG/HDL-c and the probability of reversion to normoglycemia was observed, with an inflection point of 1.675. The HR on the left side of the inflection point was 0.748 (95%CI:0.699, 0.801). The robustness of our results was confirmed through competing risks multivariate Cox's regression and a series of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

The present study reveals a negative and non-linear correlation between TG/HDL-c and the reversion to normoglycemia among Chinese individuals with prediabetes. The findings of this study are anticipated to serve as a valuable resource for clinicians in managing dyslipidemia in prediabetic patients. Interventions aimed at reducing the TG/HDL-c ratio through the reduction of TG or elevation of HDL-c levels may substantially enhance the likelihood of achieving normoglycemia in individuals with prediabetes.

Impact of individual and environmental factors on dietary or lifestyle interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes development: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The variability in the effectiveness of type 2 diabetes (T2D) preventive interventions highlights the potential to identify the factors that determine treatment responses and those that would benefit the most from a given intervention. We conducted a systematic review to synthesize the evidence to support whether sociodemographic, clinical, behavioral, and molecular factors modify the efficacy of dietary or lifestyle interventions to prevent T2D.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases for studies reporting on the effect of a lifestyle, dietary pattern, or dietary supplement interventions on the incidence of T2D and reporting the results stratified by any effect modifier. We extracted relevant statistical findings and qualitatively synthesized the evidence for each modifier based on the direction of findings reported in available studies. We used the Diabetes Canada Clinical Practice Scale to assess the certainty of the evidence for a given effect modifier.

RESULTS

The 81 publications that met our criteria for inclusion are from 33 unique trials. The evidence is low to very low to attribute variability in intervention effectiveness to individual characteristics such as age, sex, BMI, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, baseline behavioral factors, or genetic predisposition.

CONCLUSIONS

We report evidence, albeit low certainty, that those with poorer health status, particularly those with prediabetes at baseline, tend to benefit more from T2D prevention strategies compared to healthier counterparts. Our synthesis highlights the need for purposefully designed clinical trials to inform whether individual factors influence the success of T2D prevention strategies.

Effects of metformin and intensive lifestyle interventions on the incidence of kidney disease in adults in the DPP/DPPOS

AIMS

We analyzed the incidence of kidney disease in the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study (DPPOS) by originally randomized treatment group assignment: Intensive Lifestyle (ILS), Metformin (MET) or Placebo (PLB).

METHODS

The current analyses used a time-to-event approach in which the primary outcome was kidney disease, ascertained as urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) ≥ 3.39 mg/mmol (30 mg/g) or eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73m2, with confirmation required at the next visit, or adjudicated end-stage kidney disease (ESKD).

RESULTS

At a median of 21 years following randomization in DPP, diabetes development was reduced in both the ILS (HR 0.73 [95%CI = 0.62, 0.85]) and MET groups (HR 0.85 [0.73, 0.99]) compared to the PLB group. Although risk for developing the primary kidney disease outcome was higher among those with incident diabetes compared to those without (HR 1.81 [1.43, 2.30]), it did not differ by intervention groups (ILS vs. PLB 1.02 (0.81, 1.29); MET vs. PLB 1.08 (0.86, 1.35). There was a non-significant metformin by age interaction (p = 0.057), with metformin being beneficial for kidney disease in the younger but potentially harmful in the older participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Development of kidney disease was increased in participants who developed diabetes but did not differ by original treatment group assignment.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATIONS

Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) Clinical trial reg. no. NCT00004992 DPP Outcomes Study (DPPOS) Clinical trial reg. no. NCT0038727.

Supra-additive effect of chronic inflammation and atherogenic dyslipidemia on developing type 2 diabetes among young adults: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Both elevated inflammation and atherogenic dyslipidemia are prominent in young-onset diabetes and are increasingly identified as biologically intertwined processes that contribute to diabetogenesis. We aimed to investigate the age-specific risks of type 2 diabetes (T2D) upon concomitant chronic inflammation and atherogenic dyslipidemia.

METHODS

Age-stratified Cox regression analysis of the risk of incident diabetes upon co-exposure to time-averaged cumulative high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CumCRP) and atherogenic index of plasma (CumAIP) among 42,925 nondiabetic participants from a real-world, prospective cohort (Kailuan Study).

RESULTS

During a median 6.41 years of follow-up, 3987 T2D developed. Isolated CumAIP and CumCRP were significantly associated with incident T2D in the entire cohort and across all age subgroups. Both CumAIP and CumCRP were jointly associated with an increased risk of diabetes (P-interaction = 0.0126). Compared to CumAIP < -0.0699 and CumCRP < 1 mg/L, co-exposure to CumAIP ≥ - 0.0699 and CumCRP ≥ 3 mg/L had a significant hazard ratio (HR) [2.55 (2.23-2.92)] after adjusting for socio-demographic, life-style factors, family history of diabetes, blood pressure, renal function and medication use. The co-exposure-associated risks varied greatly by age distribution (P-interaction = 0.0193): < 40 years, 6.26 (3.47-11.28); 40-49 years, 2.26 (1.77-2.89); 50-59 years, 2.51 (2.00-3.16); 60-69 years, 2.48 (1.86-3.30); ≥ 70 years, 2.10 (1.29-3.40). In young adults (< 45 years), both exposures had a significant supra-additive effect on diabetogenesis (relative excess risk due to interaction: 0.80, 95% CI 0.10-1.50).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the need for age-specific combined assessment and management of chronic inflammation and dyslipidemia in primary prevention against T2D, particularly for young adults. The clinical benefit derived from dual-target intervention against dyslipidemia and inflammation will exceed the sum of each part alone in young adults.

Role of sociodemographic, clinical, behavioral, and molecular factors in precision prevention of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review

The variability in the effectiveness of type 2 diabetes (T2D) preventive interventions highlights the potential to identify the factors that determine treatment responses and those that would benefit the most from a given intervention. We conducted a systematic review to synthesize the evidence to support whether sociodemographic, clinical, behavioral, and molecular characteristics modify the efficacy of dietary or lifestyle interventions to prevent T2D. Among the 80 publications that met our criteria for inclusion, the evidence was low to very low to attribute variability in intervention effectiveness to individual characteristics such as age, sex, BMI, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, baseline behavioral factors, or genetic predisposition. We found evidence, albeit low certainty, to support conclusions that those with poorer health status, particularly those with prediabetes at baseline, tend to benefit more from T2D prevention strategies compared to healthier counterparts. Our synthesis highlights the need for purposefully designed clinical trials to inform whether individual factors influence the success of T2D prevention strategies.

Development and validation of a nomogram to estimate future risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in adults with metabolic syndrome: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate the 4-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus among adults with metabolic syndrome.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of a large multicenter cohort with broad validation.

SETTINGS

The derivation cohort was from 32 sites in China and the geographic validation cohort was from Henan population-based cohort study.

RESULTS

568 (17.63) and 53 (18.67%) participants diagnosed diabetes during 4-year follow-up in the developing and validation cohort, separately. Age, gender, body mass index, diastolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose and alanine aminotransferase were included in the final model. The area under curve for the training and external validation cohort was 0.824 (95% CI, 0.759-0.889) and 0.732 (95% CI, 0.594-0.871), respectively. Both the internal and external validation have good calibration plot. A nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of diabetes during 4-year follow-up, and on online calculator is also available for a more convenient usage ( https://lucky0708.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/ ).

CONCLUSION

We developed a simple diagnostic model to predict 4-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus among adults with metabolic syndrome, which is also available as web-based tools ( https://lucky0708.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/ ).

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2023 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2022 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. The American Heart Association strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) publications, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

The National Clinical Care Commission Report to Congress: Leveraging Federal Policies and Programs to Prevent Diabetes in People With Prediabetes

Individuals with an elevated fasting glucose level, elevated glucose level after glucose challenge, or elevated hemoglobin A1c level below the diagnostic threshold for diabetes (collectively termed prediabetes) are at increased risk for type 2 diabetes. More than one-third of U.S. adults have prediabetes but fewer than one in five are aware of the diagnosis. Rigorous scientific research has demonstrated the efficacy of both intensive lifestyle interventions and metformin in delaying or preventing progression from prediabetes to type 2 diabetes. The National Clinical Care Commission (NCCC) was a federal advisory committee charged with evaluating and making recommendations to improve federal programs related to the prevention of diabetes and its complications. In this article, we describe the recommendations of an NCCC subcommittee that focused primarily on prevention of type 2 diabetes in people with prediabetes. These recommendations aim to improve current federal diabetes prevention activities by 1) increasing awareness of and diagnosis of prediabetes on a population basis; 2) increasing the availability of, referral to, and insurance coverage for the National Diabetes Prevention Program and the Medicare Diabetes Prevention Program; 3) facilitating Food and Drug Administration review and approval of metformin for diabetes prevention; and 4) supporting research to enhance the effectiveness of diabetes prevention. Cognizant of the burden of type 1 diabetes, the recommendations also highlight the importance of research to advance our understanding of the etiology of and opportunities for prevention of type 1 diabetes.

Association between body mass index and reversion to normoglycemia from impaired fasting glucose among Chinese adults: a 5-year cohort study

Objective

Evidence regarding the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and reversion to normoglycemia from prediabetes is still limited. The purpose of our study is to survey the link of BMI on reversion to normoglycemia among patients with impaired fasting glucose (IFG).

Methods

This study, a retrospective cohort, covered 32 regions and 11 cities in China and collected 258,74 IFG patients who underwent a health check from 2010 to 2016. We investigated the association between baseline BMI and reversion to normoglycemia in patients with IFG using the Cox proportional-hazards regression model. The nonlinear relationship between BMI and reversion to normoglycemia was determined using a Cox proportional hazards regression with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting. In addition, we also performed a series of sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses. A competing risk multivariate Cox regression was performed using progression to diabetes as a competing risk for reversal of normoglycemic events.

Results

After adjusting covariates, the results showed that BMI was negatively related to the probability of reversion to normoglycemia (HR=0.977, 95%CI:0.971-0.984). Compared with participants with normal BMI(<24kg/m²), overweight (BMI:24-28kg/m²) participants with IFG had a 9.9% lower probability of returning to normoglycemia (HR=0.901,95%CI:0.863-0.939), while obese patients (BMI ≥ 28kg/m²) had a 16.9% decreased probability of reverting from IFG to normoglycemia (HR=0.831,95%CI:0.780-0.886). There was also a nonlinear relationship between them, and the inflection point of BMI was 21.7kg/m². The effect sizes (HR) on the left sides of the inflection point were 0.972(95%CI:0.964-0.980). The competing risks multivariate Cox's regression and sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of our results.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates a negative and nonlinear relationship between BMI and reversion to normoglycemia in Chinese patients with IFG. Minimizing BMI to 21.7 kg/m² in patients with IFG through aggressive intervention may significantly increase the probability of returning to normoglycemia.

Utilizing fog computing and explainable deep learning techniques for gestational diabetes prediction

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is one of the pregnancy complications that poses a significant risk on mothers and babies as well. GDM usually diagnosed at 22–26 of gestation. However, the early prediction is desirable as it may contribute to decrease the risk. The continuous monitoring for mother’s vital signs helps in predicting any deterioration during pregnancy. The originality of this paper is to provide comprehensive framework for pregnancy women monitoring. The proposed Data Replacement and Prediction Framework consists of three layers which are: (i) IoT Layer, (ii) Fog Layer, and (iii) Cloud Layer. The first layer used IOT sensors to aggregate vital sings from pregnancies using invasive and noninvasive sensors. Then the vital signs transmitted to fog nodes to processed and finally stored in the cloud layer. The main contribution in this paper is located in the fog layer producing GDM module to implement two influential tasks which are: (i) Data Finding Methodology (DFM), and (ii) Explainable Prediction Algorithm (EPM) using DNN. First, the DFM is used to replace the unused data to free the cache space for the new incoming data items. The cache replacement is very important in the case of healthcare system as the incoming vital signs are frequent and must be replaced continuously. Second, the EPM is used to predict the incidence of GDM that may occur in the second trimester of the pregnancy. To evaluate our model, we extract data of 16,354 pregnancy women from medical information mart for intensive care (MIMIC III) benchmark dataset. For each woman, vital signs, demographic data and laboratory tests was aggregated. The results of the prediction model superior the state of the art (ACC = 0.957, AUC = 0.942). Regarding to explainability, we utilized Shapley additive explanation framework to provide local and global explanation for the developed models. Overall, the proposed framework is medically intuitive, allow the early prediction of GDM with cost effective solution.

Progression from prediabetes to type 2 diabetes mellitus induced by overnutrition

Prediabetes has developed into a global pandemic, its prevalence increasing year by year. Although lifestyle changes are advocated as the basis for prediabetes treatment, some patients fail to choose or adhere to appropriate interventions. The basis for selecting an appropriate intervention is determining the stage and cause of the disease. In this review, we aimed to examine the various types and disease processes of prediabetes caused by overnutrition, the present review supporting the hypothesis that overnutrition-induced hyperinsulinemia precedes insulin resistance (IR) and independently causes β-cell dysfunction. Tissue insulin resistance is the main feature of prediabetes with the crosstalk between tissues promoting the formation of systemic insulin resistance. Finally, both β-cell dysfunction induced by hyperinsulinemia or IR and reduced β-cell mass can lead to abnormal insulin secretion and contribute to development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Hence, overnutrition can cause multiple prediabetes phenotypes resulting in development of T2DM through different trajectories. Future diagnosis and treatment should therefore more carefully consider the disease phenotype and stage of development in patients with prediabetes to reduce the incidence of T2DM.

Changes in Glucose Metabolism and Glycemic Status With Once-Weekly Subcutaneous Semaglutide 2.4 mg Among Participants With Prediabetes in the STEP Program

OBJECTIVE

This analysis of 3,375 adults with overweight/obesity across the Semaglutide Treatment Effect in People with obesity (STEP) 1, 3, and 4 trials evaluated whether more participants with prediabetes had normoglycemia after 68 weeks' treatment with once-weekly semaglutide 2.4 mg plus lifestyle intervention versus placebo and assessed changes in glucose metabolism in participants with prediabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

STEP 1, 3, and 4 were phase 3, 68-week, randomized, placebo-controlled, multinational trials; STEP 4 had a 20-week semaglutide run-in and 48-week randomized period. Analyses included changes (week 0-68; before the washout period) in glycemic status (prespecified: STEP 1 and 3; post hoc: STEP 4), and in HbA1c, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and HOMA insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) among participants with prediabetes (post hoc).

RESULTS

Significantly more participants with baseline (week 0) prediabetes (n = 1,536) had normoglycemia at week 68 with semaglutide versus placebo (STEP 1, 84.1% vs. 47.8%; STEP 3, 89.5% vs. 55.0%; STEP 4, 89.8% vs. 70.4%; all P < 0.0001). Fewer participants with baseline normoglycemia had prediabetes at week 68 with semaglutide versus placebo (STEP 1, 2.9% vs. 10.9%; STEP 3, 3.2% vs. 5.8%; STEP 4, 1.1% vs. 5.0%). Semaglutide resulted in greater improvements in HbA1c, FPG, and HOMA-IR than placebo among participants with baseline prediabetes (all P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

STEP 1, 3, and 4 collectively provide a robust assessment of the effects of semaglutide on glucose metabolism and prediabetes in a large cohort of adults with overweight/obesity while on treatment. Among participants with baseline prediabetes, 68 weeks' treatment with semaglutide versus placebo led to significant improvements in glucose metabolism and a higher likelihood of normoglycemia.

Health Beliefs Associated With Metformin Use Among Insured Adults With Prediabetes

OBJECTIVE

To use the framework of the Health Belief Model (HBM) to explore factors associated with metformin use among adults with prediabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We analyzed survey data from 200 metformin users and 1,277 nonmetformin users with prediabetes identified from a large, insured workforce. All subjects were offered the National Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) at no out-of-pocket cost. We constructed bivariate and multivariate models to investigate how perceived threat, perceived benefits, self-efficacy, and cues to action impacted metformin use and how demographic, clinical, sociopsychological, and structural variables impacted the associations.

RESULTS

Adults with prediabetes who used metformin were younger and more likely to be women and to have worse self-rated health and higher BMIs than those with prediabetes who did not use metformin. Those who used metformin were also more likely to be aware of their prediabetes and to have a personal history of gestational diabetes mellitus or a family history of diabetes. After consideration of perceived threat, perceived benefits, self-efficacy, and cues to action, the only independent predictors of metformin use were younger age, female sex, higher BMI, and cues to action, most specifically, a doctor offering metformin therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Demographic and clinical factors and cues to action impact the likelihood of metformin use for diabetes prevention. Perceived threat, perceived benefits, and self-efficacy were not independently associated with metformin use. These results highlight the importance of patient-centered primary care and shared decision-making in diabetes prevention. Clinicians should proactively offer metformin to patients with prediabetes to facilitate effective diabetes prevention.

Invited Commentary: Mechanistic and Biologically Based Models in Epidemiology-A Powerful Underutilized Tool

Mechanistic and biologically based mathematical models of chronic and behavioral disease processes aim to capture the main mechanistic or biological features of the disease development and to connect these with epidemiologic outcomes. These approaches have a long history in epidemiologic research and are complementary to traditional epidemiologic or statistical approaches to investigate the role of risk factor exposures on disease risk. Simonetto et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2022;191(10):1766-1775) present a mechanistic, process-oriented model to investigate the role of smoking, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in the development of atherosclerotic lesions and their progression to myocardial infarction. Their approach builds on and brings to cardiovascular disease the ideas and perspectives of earlier mechanistic and biologically based models for the epidemiology of cancer and other chronic diseases, providing important insights into the mechanisms and epidemiology of smoking related myocardial infarction. We argue that although mechanistic modeling approaches have demonstrated their value and place in epidemiology, they are highly underutilized. We call for efforts to grow mechanistic and biologically based modeling research, expertise, and awareness in epidemiology, including the development of training and collaboration opportunities to attract more students and researchers from science, technology, engineering, and medical field into the epidemiology field.

Prediction of gestational diabetes based on explainable deep learning and fog computing

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is one of the pregnancy complications that endangers both mothers and babies. GDM is usually diagnosed at 22–26 weeks of gestation. However, early prediction is preferable because it may decrease the risk. The continuous monitoring of the mother’s vital signs helps in predicting any deterioration during pregnancy. The originality of this research is to provide a comprehensive framework for pregnancy women monitoring. The proposed Data Replacement and Prediction Framework consists of three layers, which are: (i) Internet of things (IoT) Layer, (ii) Fog Layer, and (iii) Cloud Layer. The first layer used IoT sensors to aggregate vital signs from pregnancies using invasive and non-invasive sensors. The vital signs are then transmitted to fog nodes to be processed and finally stored in the cloud layer. The main contribution in this research is located in the fog layer producing the GDM module to implement two influential tasks which are as follows: (i) Data Finding Methodology (DFM), and (ii) Explainable Prediction Algorithm (EPM) using DNN. First, the DFM is used to replace the unused data to free up the cache space for new incoming data items. The cache replacement is very important in the case of the healthcare system as the incoming vital signs are frequent and must be replaced continuously. Second, the EPM is used to predict the occurrence of GDM in the second trimester of the pregnancy. To evaluate our model, we extracted data from 16,354 pregnant women from the medical information mart for intensive care (MIMIC III) benchmark dataset. For each woman, vital signs, demographic data, and laboratory tests were aggregated. The results of the prediction model are superior to the state-of-the-art (ACC = 0.957, AUC = 0.942). Regarding explainability, we used Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) framework to provide local and global explanations for the developed models. Overall, the proposed framework is medically intuitive and allows the early prediction of GDM with a cost-effective solution.

IL-1 Receptor Antagonist (IL-1Ra) Levels and Management of Metabolic Disorders

Low-grade inflammation is a major player in obesity and the metabolic syndrome predicting development of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra) is a vital and natural anti-inflammatory factor and mediator in glucose homeostasis disturbances. The predictive role is independent of multiple confounders, and elevated levels appear few years before T2DM. The role of IL-1Ra is important for accumulated risk factors, dysregulated metabolism and glucose homeostasis, and dietary interventions. Longitudinal and cross-sectional population study cohorts have enabled the approximation of IL-1Ra limit values for metabolic dysregulation and guide further analysis as a potential biomarker. The limit value of IL-1Ra is reaching 400 pg/mL with prediabetes and before T2DM. However, subjects with metabolic syndrome are suggested to have lower limit values, especially among men. Future research may evaluate the role of IL-1Ra in actual glucose homeostasis together with routine fasted laboratory tests, such as glucose and C-reactive protein (CRP) instead of the oral glucose tolerance test. The significance of intermediate low IL-1Ra levels in metabolic abnormalities should be further analyzed. It is possible to specify the impact of multiple lifestyle and metabolic parameters together with age and sex. IL-1Ra could be studied in multiple approaches including interventional studies of metabolic diseases.

Glucometabolic State Transitions: The Jackson Heart Study

Background

Diabetes and prediabetes are common among African Americans (AA), but the frequency and predictors of transition between normal, impaired glucose metabolism, and diabetes are not well-described. The aim of this study was to examine glucometabolic transitions and their association with the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Methods

AA participants of the Jackson Heart Study who attended baseline exam (2000-2004) and at least one of two subsequent exams (2005-2008 and 2009-2013, ~8 years) were classified according to glycemic status. Transitions were defined as progression (deterioration) or remission (improvement) of glycemic status. Multinomial logistic regression models with repeated measures were used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) for remission and progression with adjustment for demographic, anthropometric, behavioral, and biochemical factors.

Results

Among 3353 participants, (mean age 54.6±12.3 years), 43% were normoglycemic, 32% were prediabetes, and 25% had diabetes at baseline. For those with normal glucose at a visit, the probability at the next visit (~4years) of having prediabetes or diabetes was 38.5% and 1.8%, respectively. For those with prediabetes, the probability was 9.9% to improve to normal and 19.9% to progress to diabetes. Progression was associated with baseline BMI, diabetes status, triglycerides, family history of diabetes, and weight gain (OR 1.04 kg, 95% CI:1.03-1.06, P=<.0001). Remission was strongly associated with weight loss (OR .97 kg, 95%CI: .95-.98, P<.001).

Conclusions

In AAs, glucometabolic transitions were frequent and most involved deterioration. From a public health perspective additional emphasis should be placed on weight control to preserve glucometabolic status and prevent progression to T2D.

Advances in Mechanism Research on Polygonatum in Prevention and Treatment of Diabetes

Diabetes mellitus is a fast-growing disease with a major influence on people’s quality of life. Oral hypoglycemic drugs and insulin are currently the main effective drugs in the treatment of diabetes, but chronic consumption of these drugs has certain side effects. Polysaccharides, saponins, flavonoids, and phenolics are the primary secondary metabolites isolated from the rhizomes of Polygonatum sibiricum Redouté [Asparagaceae], Polygonatum kingianum Collett & Hemsl [Asparagaceae], or Polygonatum cyrtonema Hua [Asparagaceae], which have attracted much more attention owing to their unique therapeutic role in the treatment and prevention of diabetes. However, the research on the mechanism of these three Polygonatum spp. in diabetes has not been reviewed. This review provides a summary of the research progress of three Polygonatum spp. on diabetes and its complications, reveals the potential antidiabetic mechanism of three Polygonatum spp., and discusses the effect of different processed products of three Polygonatum spp. in treating diabetes, for the sake of a thorough understanding of its effects on the prevention and treatment of diabetes and diabetes complications.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2022 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2022 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population and an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, and the global burden of cardiovascular disease and healthy life expectancy.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Nationwide Prevalence of Diabetes and Prediabetes and Associated Risk Factors Among Iranian Adults: Analysis of Data from PERSIAN Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Over the past decades prevalence of diabetes has increased in Iran and other countries. This study aimed to update the prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes in Iran and to determine associated sociodemographic risk factors, as well as diabetes awareness and control.

METHODS

This is a nationally representative cross-sectional survey that included 163,770 Iranian adults aged 35-70 years, from different ethnic backgrounds, between 2014 and 2020. Diabetes was diagnosed at fasting blood sugar of ≥ 6.99 mmol/L (126 mg/dL), or receiving blood glucose-lowering treatment. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to detect determinants associated with prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes, as well as predictors of diabetes awareness and glycemic control.

RESULTS

Sex- and age-standardized prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes was 15.0% (95% CI 12.6-17.3) and 25.4% (18.6-32.1), respectively. Among patients with diabetes, 79.6% (76.2-82.9) were aware of their diabetes. Glycemic control was achieved in 41.2% (37.5-44.8) of patients who received treatment. Older age, obesity, high waist to hip ratio (WHR), and specific ethnic background were associated with a significant risk of diabetes and prediabetes. Higher awareness of diabetes was observed in older patients, married individuals, those with high WHR, and individuals with high wealth score. Moreover, glycemic control was significantly better in women, obese individuals, those with high physical activity, educational attainment, and specific ethnic background.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes is increasing at an alarming rate in Iranian adults. High proportion of uncontrolled patients require particular initiatives to be integrated in the health care system.

Metformin for diabetes prevention: update of the evidence base

We have conducted a narrative review based on a structured search strategy, focusing on the effects of metformin on the progression of non-diabetic hyperglycemia to clinical type 2 diabetes mellitus. The principal trials that demonstrated a significantly lower incidence of diabetes in at-risk populations randomized to metformin (mostly with impaired glucose tolerance [IGT]) were published mainly from 1999 to 2012. Metformin reduced the 3-year risk of diabetes by -31% in the randomized phase of the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), vs. -58% for intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI). Metformin was most effective in younger, heavier subjects. Diminishing but still significant reductions in diabetes risk for subjects originally randomized to these groups were present in the trial's epidemiological follow-up, the DPP Outcomes Study (DPPOS) at 10 years (-18 and -34%, respectively), 15 years (-18 and -27%), and 22 years (-18 and -25%). Long-term weight loss was also seen in both groups, with better maintenance under metformin. Subgroup analyses from the DPP/DPPOS have shed important light on the actions of metformin, including a greater effect in women with prior gestational diabetes, and a reduction in coronary artery calcium in men that might suggest a cardioprotective effect. Improvements in long-term clinical outcomes with metformin in people with non-diabetic hyperglycemia ("prediabetes") have yet to be demonstrated, but cardiovascular and microvascular benefits were seen for those in the DPPOS who did not vs. did develop diabetes. Multiple health economic analyses suggest that either metformin or ILI is cost-effective in a community setting. Long-term diabetes prevention with metformin is feasible and is supported in influential guidelines for selected groups of subjects. Future research will demonstrate whether intervention with metformin in people with non-diabetic hyperglycemia will improve long-term clinical outcomes.

Use of metformin following a population-level intervention to encourage people with pre-diabetes to enroll in the National Diabetes Prevention Program

INTRODUCTION

The National Diabetes Prevention Program (NDPP) and metformin are interventions to slow progression from pre-diabetes to type 2 diabetes. When coverage for the NDPP was offered by a public research university's health insurance plan, proactive strategies were used to combat historically low enrollment. Although not specifically targeted by these strategies, metformin use was higher than expected, leading to this evaluation.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used insurance enrollment, claims, pharmacy, and laboratory data for 64 131 adult employees, dependents, and retirees to identify individuals with pre-diabetes and invite them to enroll in the NDPP at no out-of-pocket cost. The characteristics of individuals with pre-diabetes who used metformin before and after their invitation were compared with NDPP enrollees.

RESULTS

8131 individuals with pre-diabetes were identified. Of these, 776 (9.5%) enrolled in a NDPP and 802 (9.9%) used metformin. Metformin users were younger, had higher body mass index, were more likely to have comorbidities, and had higher baseline hemoglobin A1c levels than non-users. Timing of metformin use varied with 107 (13%) discontinuing, 426 (53%) continuing, and 269 (34%) initiating metformin use after their NDPP invitation. Of NDPP enrollees, 13 (2%) discontinued, 56 (7%) continued, and 34 (4%) initiated metformin use when they enrolled.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite no active encouragement, use of metformin was similar to the rate of enrollment in the NDPP. Metformin use was higher for individuals with higher likelihood of responding. With the proven cost-effectiveness of metformin, targeted strategies to increase metformin use in individuals with pre-diabetes who are likely to respond, but not willing to enroll in a lifestyle intervention, are needed.

A clinical diabetes risk prediction model for prediabetic women with prior gestational diabetes

Introduction

Without treatment, prediabetic women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are at greater risk for developing type 2 diabetes compared with women without a history of GDM. Both intensive lifestyle intervention and metformin can reduce risk. To predict risk and treatment response, we developed a risk prediction model specifically for women with prior GDM.

Methods

The Diabetes Prevention Program was a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of intensive lifestyle intervention, metformin (850mg twice daily), and placebo in preventing diabetes. Data from the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) was used to conduct a secondary analysis to evaluate 11 baseline clinical variables of 317 women with prediabetes and a self-reported history of GDM to develop a 3-year diabetes risk prediction model using Cox proportional hazards regression. Reduced models were explored and compared with the main model.

Results

Within three years, 82 (25.9%) women developed diabetes. In our parsimonious model using 4 of 11 clinical variables, higher fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1C were each associated with greater risk for diabetes (each hazard ratio approximately 1.4), and there was an interaction between treatment arm and BMI suggesting that metformin was more effective relative to no treatment for BMI ≥ 35kg/m² than BMI < 30kg/m². The model had fair discrimination (bias corrected C index = 0.68) and was not significantly different from our main model using 11 clinical variables. The estimated incidence of diabetes without treatment was 37.4%, compared to 20.0% with intensive lifestyle intervention or metformin treatment for women with a prior GDM.

Conclusions

A clinical prediction model was developed for individualized decision making for prediabetes treatment in women with prior GDM.

How Family Physicians Practice the Principle of Remission Along the Glycemic Continuum

Introduction

Recent evidence reveals that diabetes and prediabetes (preDM) can be reversed to normal glucose regulation (NGR) through significant weight loss, but how physicians clinically identify the principles of partial and complete remission of diabetes is largely unknown.

Methods

As part of the cross-sectional omnibus survey conducted in March 2019 at a professional annual meeting in the United States, physician participants answered case scenario questions about the diagnosis and documentation of patients with preDM and type 2 diabetes (T2DM).

Results

Of the registered conference attendees, 387 (72.7%) responded. When presented with the initial case of preDM, 201 physicians (70.8%) selected R73.03 Prediabetes. In a follow-up encounter with improved lab results, 118 physicians (58.7%) indicated that they would not chart any diabetes-related code and 62 (30.8%) would chart preDM again. When presented with the case of T2DM, 256 physicians (90.1%) indicated E11.0–E11.9 Type 2 Diabetes. In the follow-up encounter, only 38 (14.8%) coded a diagnosis reflecting remission from T2DM to prediabetes and 211 (82.4%) charted T2DM.

Conclusion

Physicians may be reluctant to document diabetes regression as there is little evidence for long-term outcomes and “downgrading” the diagnosis in the medical record may cause screenings to be missed. Documenting this regression in the medical record should communicate the accurate point on the continuum of glucose intolerance with both the patient and the care team.

Targeting of the diabetes prevention program leads to substantial benefits when capacity is constrained

OBJECTIVE

Approximately 84 million people in the USA have pre-diabetes, but only a fraction of them receive proven effective therapies to prevent type 2 diabetes. We estimated the value of prioritizing individuals at highest risk of progression to diabetes for treatment, compared to non-targeted treatment of individuals meeting inclusion criteria for the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP).

METHODS

Using microsimulation to project outcomes in the DPP trial population, we compared two interventions to usual care: (1) lifestyle modification and (2) metformin administration. For each intervention, we compared targeted and non-targeted strategies, assuming either limited or unlimited program capacity. We modeled the individualized risk of developing diabetes and projected diabetic outcomes to yield lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy, from which we estimated net monetary benefits (NMB) for both lifestyle and metformin versus usual care.

RESULTS

Compared to usual care, lifestyle modification conferred positive benefits and reduced lifetime costs for all eligible individuals. Metformin's NMB was negative for the lowest population risk quintile. By avoiding use when costs outweighed benefits, targeted administration of metformin conferred a benefit of $500 per person. If only 20% of the population could receive treatment, when prioritizing individuals based on diabetes risk, rather than treating a 20% random sample, the difference in NMB ranged from $14,000 to $20,000 per person.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting active diabetes prevention to patients at highest risk could improve health outcomes and reduce costs compared to providing the same intervention to a similar number of patients with pre-diabetes without targeted selection.

Dissonance in the discourse of the duration of diabetes: A mixed methods study of patient perceptions and clinical practice

Background

Remission of diabetes can be rewarding for patients and physicians, but there is limited study of how patients perceive the timeline of a disease along the continuum of glycaemic control.

Objective

To explore how patients perceive the timeline of diabetes along the continuum of glycaemic control and their goals of care and to identify whether family physicians communicate the principles of regression and remission of diabetes.

Design

Mixed methods approach of qualitative semi‐structured interviews with purposive sampling followed by cross‐sectional survey of physicians.

Participants

Thirty‐three patients living with prediabetes (preDM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at medical centres in Georgia and Nevada; and 387 family physicians providing primary care within the same health system.

Results

Patients described two timelines of diabetes: as a lifelong condition or as a condition that can be cured. Patients who perceived a lifelong condition described five treatment goals: reducing glucose‐related laboratory values, losing weight, reducing medication, preventing treatment intensification and avoiding complications. For patients who perceived diabetes as a disease with an end, the goal of care was to achieve normoglycaemia. In response to patient vignettes that described potential cases of remission and regression, 38.2% of physician respondents would still communicate that a patient has preDM and 94.6% would tell the patient that he still had diabetes.

Conclusions

Most physicians here exhibited reluctance to communicate remission or regression in patient care. Yet, patients describe two different potential timelines, including a subset who expect their diabetes can be ‘cured’. Physicians should incorporate shared decision making to create a shared mental model of diabetes and its potential outcomes with patients.

Patient or Public Contribution

In this mixed methods study, as patients participated in the qualitative phase of this study, we asked patients to tell us what additional questions we should ask in subsequent interviews. Data from this qualitative phase informed the design and interpretation of the quantitative phase with physician participants.

Risk of Progression to Diabetes Among Older Adults With Prediabetes

IMPORTANCE

The term prediabetes is used to identify individuals at increased risk for diabetes. However, the natural history of prediabetes in older age is not well characterized.

OBJECTIVES

To compare different prediabetes definitions and characterize the risks of prediabetes and diabetes among older adults in a community-based setting.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this prospective cohort analysis of 3412 older adults without diabetes from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (baseline, 2011-2013), participants were contacted semiannually through December 31, 2017, and attended a follow-up visit between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2017 (median [range] follow-up, 5.0 [0.1-6.5] years).

EXPOSURES

Prediabetes defined by a glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level of 5.7% to 6.4%, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) level (FG level of 100-125 mg/dL), either, or both.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident total diabetes (physician diagnosis, glucose-lowering medication use, HbA1c level ≥6.5%, or FG level ≥126 mg/dL).

RESULTS

A total of 3412 participants without diabetes (mean [SD] age, 75.6 [5.2] years; 2040 [60%] female; and 572 [17%] Black) attended visit 5 (2011-2013, baseline). Of the 3412 participants at baseline, a total of 2497 participants attended the follow-up visit or died. During the 6.5-year follow-up period, there were 156 incident total diabetes cases (118 diagnosed) and 434 deaths. A total of 1490 participants (44%) had HbA1c levels of 5.7% to 6.4%, 1996 (59%) had IFG, 2482 (73%) met the HbA1c or IFG criteria, and 1004 (29%) met both the HbA1c and IFG criteria. Among participants with HbA1c levels of 5.7% to 6.4% at baseline, 97 (9%) progressed to diabetes, 148 (13%) regressed to normoglycemia (HbA1c, <5.7%), and 207 (19%) died. Of those with IFG at baseline, 112 (8%) progressed to diabetes, 647 (44%) regressed to normoglycemia (FG, <100 mg/dL), and 236 (16%) died. Of those with baseline HbA1c levels less than 5.7%, 239 (17%) progressed to HbA1c levels of 5.7% to 6.4% and 41 (3%) developed diabetes. Of those with baseline FG levels less than 100 mg/dL, 80 (8%) progressed to IFG (FG, 100-125 mg/dL) and 26 (3%) developed diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this community-based cohort study of older adults, the prevalence of prediabetes was high; however, during the study period, regression to normoglycemia or death was more frequent than progression to diabetes. These findings suggest that prediabetes may not be a robust diagnostic entity in older age.

Interaction of diabetes genetic risk and successful lifestyle modification in the Diabetes Prevention Programme

AIM

To test whether diabetes genetic risk modifies the association of successful lifestyle changes with incident diabetes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We studied 823 individuals randomized to the intensive lifestyle intervention (ILS) arm of the Diabetes Prevention Programme who were diabetes-free 1 year after enrolment. We tested additive and multiplicative interactions of a 67-variant diabetes genetic risk score (GRS) with achievement of three ILS goals at 1 year (≥7% weight loss, ≥150 min/wk of moderate leisure-time physical activity, and/or a goal for self-reported total fat intake) on the primary outcome of incident diabetes over 3 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

A lower GRS and achieving each or all three ILS goals were each associated with lower incidence of diabetes (all P < 0.05). Additive interactions were significant between the GRS and achievement of the weight loss goal (P < 0.001), physical activity goal (P = 0.02), and all three ILS goals (P < 0.001) for diabetes risk. Achievement of all three ILS goals was associated with 1.8 (95% CI 0.3, 3.4), 3.1 (95% CI 1.5, 4.7), and 3.9 (95% CI 1.6, 6.2) fewer diabetes cases/100-person-years in the first, second and third GRS tertiles (P < 0.001 for trend). Multiplicative interactions between the GRS and ILS goal achievement were significant for the diet goal (P < 0.001), but not for weight loss (P = 0.18) or physical activity (P = 0.62) goals.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic risk may identify high-risk subgroups for whom successful lifestyle modification is associated with greater absolute reduction in the risk of incident diabetes.

Clinical and metabolomic predictors of regression to normoglycemia in a population at intermediate cardiometabolic risk

Background

Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) is a prevalent and potentially reversible intermediate stage leading to type 2 diabetes that increases risk for cardiometabolic complications. The identification of clinical and molecular factors associated with the reversal, or regression, from IFG to a normoglycemia state would enable more efficient cardiovascular risk reduction strategies. The aim of this study was to identify clinical and biological predictors of regression to normoglycemia in a non-European population characterized by high rates of type 2 diabetes.

Methods

We conducted a prospective, population-based study among 9637 Mexican individuals using clinical features and plasma metabolites. Among them, 491 subjects were classified as IFG, defined as fasting glucose between 100 and 125 mg/dL at baseline. Regression to normoglycemia was defined by fasting glucose less than 100 mg/dL in the follow-up visit. Plasma metabolites were profiled by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance. Multivariable cox regression models were used to examine the associations of clinical and metabolomic factors with regression to normoglycemia. We assessed the predictive capability of models that included clinical factors alone and models that included clinical factors and prioritized metabolites.

Results

During a median follow-up period of 2.5 years, 22.6% of participants (n = 111) regressed to normoglycemia, and 29.5% progressed to type 2 diabetes (n = 145). The multivariate adjusted relative risk of regression to normoglycemia was 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25 to 1.32) per 10 years of age increase, 0.94 (95% CI 0.91–0.98) per 1 SD increase in BMI, and 0.91 (95% CI 0.88–0.95) per 1 SD increase in fasting glucose. A model including information from age, fasting glucose, and BMI showed a good prediction of regression to normoglycemia (AUC = 0.73 (95% CI 0.66–0.78). The improvement after adding information from prioritized metabolites (TG in large HDL, albumin, and citrate) was non-significant (AUC = 0.74 (95% CI 0.68–0.80), p value = 0.485).

Conclusion

In individuals with IFG, information from three clinical variables easily obtained in the clinical setting showed a good prediction of regression to normoglycemia beyond metabolomic features. Our findings can serve to inform and design future cardiovascular prevention strategies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-021-01246-1.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2021 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2021 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors related to cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Each of the 27 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Heart Health and Behavior Change in HIV-Infected Individuals

Management of cardiovascular disease risk requires many lifestyle changes involving diet, smoking, and exercise. Individuals with arterial plaque are encouraged to adopt these changes to promote longevity through a variety of interventions. This study examined behavioral changes in response to the standard of care after detection of arterial plaque, specifically among HIV-infected cocaine users. 127 individuals (HIV - COC - n = 43, HIV + COC - n = 19, HIV + COC + n = 35, HIV - COC + n = 30) were followed after a standard of care intervention and assessed 1 and 2 years later on a variety of lifestyle (diet, exercise, smoking) and physiological (blood pressure, body mass index, number of arterial plaques) outcomes. Arterial plaque was found to increase over time (b = 0.003, SE = 0.002, p = .031), and a composite measure of cardiovascular disease risk did not change (b = - 0.004, SE = 0.01, p = .548). Following provision of a standard of care cardiovascular risk reduction intervention, important health behaviors related to CVD risk were resistant to change among both those HIV-infected and uninfected and among cocaine users and non-users.

Incidence and regression of metabolic syndrome in a representative sample of the Spanish population: results of the cohort di@bet.es study

INTRODUCTION

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is an important predictor of cardiovascular mortality. Identification of occurrence and regression trends of MetS could permit elaboration of preventive strategies with new targets. The objective of this study was to analyze the occurrence and regression rates of MetS and its associated factors in the representative cohort of Spain of the di@bet.es study.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The di@bet.es study is a prospective cohort where 5072 people representative of the Spanish population over 18 years of age were randomly selected between 2009 and 2010. Follow-up was a median of 7.5 (IQR 7.2-7.9) years, with 2408 (47%) participating subjects. A total of 1881 (78%) subjects had all the pertinent data available and were included in this study.

RESULTS

Of the 1146 subjects without baseline criteria for MetS, 294 (25.7%) developed MetS during follow-up, while of the 735 patients with prior MetS, 148 (20.1%) presented regression. Adjusted MetS incidence per 1000 person-years was 38 (95% CI 32 to 44), while regression incidence was 36 (95% CI 31 to 41). Regression rate was independently higher than incidence rate in the following: women, subjects aged 18-45, university-degree holders, patients without central obesity, without hypertension, as well as those with body mass index of <25 kg/m². Lower progression and higher regression rates were observed with an adapted 14-point Mediterranean Diet adherence screener questionnaire score of >11 in both groups and with >500 and>2000 MET-min/week of physical activity, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides MetS incidence and regression rates, and identifies the target population for intervention strategies in Spain and possibly in other countries.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2020 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports on the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2020 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, metrics to assess and monitor healthy diets, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, a focus on the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors, implementation strategies, and implications of the American Heart Association's 2020 Impact Goals.

RESULTS

Each of the 26 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, healthcare administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Natural history of prediabetes in older adults from a population-based longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The natural history of prediabetes in older adults remains unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the rate at which prediabetes progresses to diabetes, leads to death or reverts to normoglycaemia in older adults and to identify prognostic factors related to different outcomes of prediabetes.

METHODS

In the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care-Kungsholmen, 2575 diabetes-free participants aged ≥60 years were examined at baseline and followed for up to 12 years. At each wave, diabetes was diagnosed via medical examination, antidiabetic drug use, medical records or glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥6.5%. Prediabetes was defined as HbA1c ≥5.7% and normoglycaemia as HbA1c <5.7% in diabetes-free participants. Data were analysed with multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

At baseline, 918 (36%) individuals had prediabetes. Of them, 204 (22%) reverted to normoglycaemia (3.4/100 person-years, 95% CI 5.6-12.3), 119 (13%) developed diabetes (2.0/100 person-years, 95% CI 1.7-2.4) and 215 (23%) died (13.0/100 person-years, 95% CI 11.4-14.9) during the 12-year follow-up. The rates of reversion, progression and mortality were higher in the first 6-year than in the second 6-year follow-up, albeit not statistically significant. Lower systolic blood pressure (SBP), absence of heart diseases and weight loss promoted the reversion from prediabetes to normoglycaemia, whilst obesity accelerated its progression to diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

During a 12-year follow-up, most of older adults with prediabetes remained stable or reverted to normoglycaemia, whereas only one-third developed diabetes or died. Lower SBP, no heart diseases and weight management may promote reversion to normoglycaemia, suggesting possible strategies for achieving normoglycaemia in older adults with prediabetes.

Weight Trends in Veterans With and Without Diabetes, 2000 to 2014

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess weight trends and diabetes prevalence among US veterans.

METHODS

Information from the Veterans Affairs Informatics and Computing Infrastructure Corporate Data Warehouse was used to construct data sets that included demographic data, diabetes status, and weight observations for males and females. Secular and longitudinal trends in mean weight were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 4,527,865 patients born from 1915 to 1984 with weight data during 2000 to 2014 were included; 36.8% had diabetes. Mean weight at baseline was higher in men and women with diabetes (97 kg and 88 kg, respectively) than in men and women without diabetes (86 kg and 76 kg, respectively). Mean weight increased from 2000 to 2014 (P < 0.001) at rates of 0.36 kg/y in women without diabetes, 0.28 kg/y in men with diabetes, 0.25 kg/y in men without diabetes, and 0.22 kg/y in women with diabetes. Weight decreased in those born before 1940, was stable in those born between 1940 and 1949, and increased in those born since 1950.

CONCLUSIONS

Among contemporary veterans, women without diabetes are gaining weight more rapidly than women with diabetes or men. Younger veterans are gaining weight more rapidly than older veterans. Further efforts are needed to prevent weight gain in veterans, especially among women.

Efficacy and Safety of Ginkgo Biloba Pills for Coronary Heart Disease with Impaired Glucose Regulation: Study Protocol for a Series of N-of-1 Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trials

Background

Coronary heart disease has become a serious challenge to China with its high prevalence and mortality. The impaired glucose regulation is prevalent in patients with cardiovascular disease. However, there are few drugs that interfere early with impaired glucose regulation. Ginkgo biloba extract not only is a commonly used drug for cardiovascular diseases, but also has a significant effect in reducing blood sugar. Therefore, this study used a single-case randomized controlled trial to explore the efficacy of Ginkgo biloba pills in the treatment of coronary heart disease patients with impaired glucose regulation.

Methods/Design

This is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, three-period crossover trial for a single subject. A total of 12 subjects will be recruited in this trial. The trial is divided into three cycles, and one cycle has two treatment periods. Ginkgo biloba pills and placebo will be randomized during the treatment period. The test period will last for 58 weeks and subjects will take 48 weeks. Subjects will be selected by the researcher strictly in accordance with the inclusion and exclusion criteria.

Discussion

Ginkgo biloba preparations are widely used in cardiovascular diseases both at home and abroad due to their definite curative effect, few side effects, various dosage forms, and convenient and safe use. Diabetes mellitus is a high-risk factor for the occurrence of cardiovascular disease. Therefore, it is of great significance to control the impaired glucose regulation and slow down the development of diabetes and reduce the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular diseases. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT03483779).

Review of Metformin Use for Type 2 Diabetes Prevention

CONTEXT

Prediabetes is prevalent and significantly increases lifetime risk of progression to type 2 diabetes. This review summarizes the evidence surrounding metformin use for type 2 diabetes prevention.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Articles published between 1998 and 2017 examining metformin use for the primary indication of diabetes prevention available on MEDLINE.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Forty articles met inclusion criteria and were summarized into four general categories: (1) RCTs of metformin use for diabetes prevention (n=7 and n=2 follow-up analyses); (2) observational analyses examining metformin use in heterogeneous subgroups of patients with prediabetes (n=9 from the Diabetes Prevention Program, n=1 from the biguanides and the prevention of the risk of obesity [BIGPRO] trial); (3) observational analyses examining cost effectiveness of metformin use for diabetes prevention (n=11 from the Diabetes Prevention Program, n=1 from the Indian Diabetes Prevention Program); and (4) real-world assessments of metformin eligibility or use for diabetes prevention (n=9). Metformin was associated with reduced relative risk of incident diabetes, with the strongest evidence for use in those at highest risk (i.e., aged <60 years, BMI ≥35, and women with histories of gestational diabetes). Metformin was also deemed cost effective in 11 economic analyses. Recent studies highlighted low rates of metformin use for diabetes prevention in real-world settings.

CONCLUSIONS

Two decades of evidence support metformin use for diabetes prevention among higher-risk patients. However, metformin is not widely used in real-world practice, and enhancing the translation of this evidence to real-world practice has important implications for patients, providers, and payers.

New treatment modalities for obesity

The treatment of childhood obesity represents a greater challenge for pediatricians. To date, it is multidisciplinary, including behavioral, dietary, pharmacological, and surgical options. Given the limited efficacy of available treatments, scientific research on finding new solutions is very active. Several drugs comprising Metformin, Glucagon-like peptide- 1 receptor agonists, Naltrexone-bupropion, Phentermine-Topiramate, and Lorcaserin have been studied as pediatric antiobesity agents. Findings from clinical trials showed a modest but significant effect of these drugs on weight loss, but long-term studies are needed to better define their exact role. Bariatric surgery is also promising for extremely obese adolescents. Moreover, a novel approach to treat obesity might be represented by compounds inducing browning of white adipose tissue, a complex process involved in body energy homeostasis, but at present evidence in humans is lacking. We aimed to review the current knowledge regarding the available new options for pediatric obesity treatment.

Prevention and Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes: A Pathophysiological-Based Approach

Prediabetes affects approximately 40% of American adults. Randomized trials report that a proportion of individuals with prediabetes develop diabetes despite caloric restriction, physical activity, and/or when treated with metformin, the first-line medication for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Currently, there are no valid predictors of the effectiveness of these measures in determining who will and who will not progress to the T2DM state. Few studies have examined the clinical and phenotypic predictors of better and worse glycemic response to lifestyle interventions and metformin in prediabetes and diabetes. Further studies incorporating 'omic' approaches to discover novel markers of phenotypes and treatment effectiveness may pave the way to personalizing the treatment of prediabetes and diabetes.