The Cardiometabolic Risk Profile of Young Adults With Diabetes in the U.S

Multiple long-term conditions as the next transition in the global diabetes epidemic

Several transitions, or new patterns and dynamics in the contributors and health outcomes, have altered the character and burden of the multi-decade, worldwide growth in prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). These changes have led to different needs for prevention and care. These dynamics have been driven by diverse demographic, socio-economic, behavioural, and health system response factors. In this Perspective, we describe these transitions and how their attributes have set the stage for multimorbidity, or multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs), to be the next major challenge in the diabetes epidemic. We also describe how the timing and character of these stages differ in high-, middle-, and low-income countries. These challenges call for innovation and a stronger focus on MLTCs across the spectrum of cause, effectiveness, and implementation studies to guide prevention and treatment priorities.

Correlation of dietary flavonoid intake with chronic bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma in U.S. adults: A large, national, cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To explore the relationship between dietary flavonoids and bronchitis, emphysema and asthma.

METHOD

A total of 11743 United States adults were extracted from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in 2007-2008, 2009-2010 and 2017-2018. Of these, 47.7% were male and 52.3% female. Dietary flavonoid intake assessed using FDNNS and 24-hour dietary recall data. Inclusion of demographics (gender, age, education, family income), behavioral factors (BMI, smoking, drinking status, diet), chronic disease information (diabetes, hypertension) as covariates to eliminate confounding. Stepwise logistic regression was used to analyze the association between total dietary flavonoid intake and the risk of chronic respiratory disease. Weighted quantile sum regression (WQS) was used to analyze the association between 29 dietary flavonoids and the risk of chronic respiratory disease. Restricted cubic spline was used to analyze the dose-response relationship between dietary flavonoid intake and risk of chronic respiratory disease.

RESULTS

Stepwise logistic regression results showed that higher flavonoid intake in men was associated with a lower risk of CB and asthma (OR of CB: 0.55(0.31-0.97); OR of asthma: 0.72(0.52-0.99)), and WQS results showed a mixed health effect for total flavonoids and chronic respiratory tract in response to the 29 flavonoid fractions (OR of asthma: 0.97(0.94-0.99); OR of emphysema: 0.95(0.90-0.99)). Glycitein had the highest health contribution of 26.2% for emphysema; Eriodictyol had the highest health contribution of 32.13% for asthma, respectively. The RCS showed a dose-response relationship between flavonoids and respiratory tract health. The maximum dose for ingesting flavonoids to gain respiratory health benefits is 1500 mg/d.

CONCLUSION

Higher dietary flavonoid intake was associated with lower chronic respiratory risk in adult U.S. men. Also 29 dietary flavonoid components have an overall health effect on respiratory health. Glycitein and Eriodictyol may have potential health effects on the respiratory system. 1500 mg/day may be the Tolerable Upper Intake Level of dietary flavonoids for respiratory health in U.S. adults.

Lipid-encapsulated mRNA encoding an extended serum half-life interleukin-22 ameliorates metabolic disease in mice

OBJECTIVE

Interleukin (IL)-22 is a potential therapeutic protein for the treatment of metabolic diseases such as obesity, type 2 diabetes, and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease due to its involvement in multiple cellular pathways and observed hepatoprotective effects. The short serum half-life of IL-22 has previously limited its use in clinical applications; however, the development of mRNA-lipid nanoparticle (LNP) technology offers a novel therapeutic approach that uses a host-generated IL-22 fusion protein. In the present study, the effects of administration of an mRNA-LNP encoding IL-22 on metabolic disease parameters was investigated in various mouse models.

METHODS

C57BL/6NCrl mice were used to confirm mouse serum albumin (MSA)-IL-22 protein expression prior to assessments in C57BL/6NTac and CETP/ApoB transgenic mouse models of metabolic disease. Mice were fed either regular chow or a modified amylin liver nonalcoholic steatohepatitis-inducing diet prior to receiving either LNP-encapsulated MSA-IL-22 or MSA mRNA via intravenous or intramuscular injection. Metabolic markers were monitored for the duration of the experiments, and postmortem histology assessment and analysis of metabolic gene expression pathways were performed.

RESULTS

MSA-IL-22 was detectable for ≥8 days following administration. Improvements in body weight, lipid metabolism, glucose metabolism, and lipogenic and fibrotic marker gene expression in the liver were observed in the MSA-IL-22-treated mice, and these effects were shown to be durable.

CONCLUSIONS

These results support the application of mRNA-encoded IL-22 as a promising treatment strategy for metabolic syndrome and associated comorbidities in human populations.

Understanding the preferences of young adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus with regard to diabetes self-management education: a qualitative study

AIM

Young-onset type 2 diabetes (YOD) is associated with poorer clinical outcomes. To support the development of more effective diabetes self-management education (DSME) programmes, this study aimed to understand the preferences of young adults with YOD in relation to the modality, content and qualities of DSME.

METHODS

Maximal variation sampling was employed to recruit participants of varied age, ethnicity and marital status. In-depth interviews using a semistructured questionnaire were conducted. Subsequently, thematic analysis with coding and conceptualisation of data was applied to identify the main themes regarding DSME.

RESULTS

21 young adult participants aged 22-39 years were interviewed from three polyclinics in Singapore. The most used modalities for DSME included education from healthcare providers, information and support from family and friends and information from internet sources. Participants were most interested in information regarding diet, age-specific diabetes-related conditions and medication effects. Additionally, participants valued DSME that was credible, accessible, individualised and empathetic. Conversely, absence of the above qualities and stigma hindered participants from receiving DSME.

CONCLUSION

Our study explored the preferences of young adults with YOD with regard to DSME, identifying the most used modalities, preferred content and qualities that were valued by young adults. Our findings will help inform the development of DSME programmes that can better meet the needs and preferences of young adults with YOD.

Association of the Healthy Dietary Index 2020 and its components with chronic respiratory disease among U.S. adults

Background

Chronic respiratory disease is an important public health problem in the United States and globally. Diet, an important part of a healthy lifestyle, is also relevant to chronic respiratory health. We aimed to explore the relationship between overall dietary quality and the risk of chronic respiratory disease (CRD), include chronic bronchitis (CB), emphysema and asthma.

Method

A total of 4,499 United States adults were extracted from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in 2017-2018. Diet quality was assessed using 2 day, 24 h dietary recall data and quantified as the Healthy Diet Index (HEI)-2020 score. Binary logistic regression models, restricted cubic splines (RCS) and generalized additive modeling (GAM), the weighted quartile sum (WQS) and qgcom models were used to assess the relationship between HEI-2020 scores and risk of CB, emphysema and asthma.

Results

High HEI-2020 scores are associated with low risk of chronic respiratory disease (CB: 0.98, 0.97-0.99; emphysema: 0.98, 0.97-0.99; asthma: 0.98, 0.97-0.99) and consistent results across different dietary variable categorization (Tertile: CB: 0.58, 0.42-0.81; asthma: 0.51, 0.35-0.74; Quartile: CB: 0.57, 0.34-0.97; asthma: 0.56, 0.36-0.86) and different weighting models. Negative dose-response relationship between dietary quality and risk of chronic respiratory disease also shown in RCS and GAM models. The WQS and qgcom models also showed a healthy mixing effect of dietary components on respiratory disease, with high-quality proteins, vegetables, and fruits making the heaviest contributions.

Conclusion

Higher HEI-2020 scores were associated with lower risk of CB, emphysema, and asthma. Following Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2020-2025 could support enhanced respiratory health.

Identifying barriers and facilitators to self care in young adults with type 2 diabetes

AIMS

There is a rising trend of young-onset type 2 diabetes (YOD) occurring before the age of 40 years. Lower adherence to self care behaviours (diet, physical activity and taking medication) contributed to poorer glycaemic control and higher risk of complications. Young adults with YOD face unique challenges, and our study aimed to identify the main barriers and facilitators of self care behaviours in this population.

METHODOLOGY

A qualitative study was conducted in the National Healthcare Group Polyclinics, Singapore, using in-depth semi-structured interviews. Maximal variation sampling was employed to include participants with YOD of varied age, ethnicity, educational levels and marital status. Thematic analysis was conducted, and barriers and facilitators were identified and mapped to domains of the theoretical domains framework.

RESULTS

Twenty-one participants aged 22-39 years were interviewed. We found patterns of intentions, self care behaviours and mindsets that were associated with different barriers and facilitators. Four patterns were identified and were named according to mindsets: avoidant, indifferent, striving and activated. In addition, experience of stigma and self-blame from having type 2 diabetes in young adulthood was common across all mindsets, contributing to poorer self care behaviours and increased psychological burden.

CONCLUSION

Our study identified key barriers and facilitators of diet, physical activity and medication adherence in young adults with type 2 diabetes. Understanding barriers and facilitators, as related to mindsets, intentions and behaviours, will support a more individualised care approach.

Diabetes knowledge, self-efficacy and dietary, psychological and physical health barriers: Comparing young and usual-onset type 2 diabetes

AIMS

Young-onset (21-39 years old) type 2 diabetes (YOD) is associated with high complication rates and glycaemic levels, and poor self-management plays a significant role. Knowledge, skills and barriers influence self-management behaviours considerably. Therefore, this study assessed diabetes knowledge, self-efficacy and barriers (situational dietary barriers, physical health, mental health and diabetes-related distress) between participants with young and usual-onset (40-59 years old) (UOD) diabetes.

METHODOLOGY

A cross-sectional survey was conducted. Differences between YOD and UOD were analysed using bivariate analysis and effect sizes were estimated with Cohen's d. Differences were further adjusted by demographic factors (gender, ethnicity, marital status, educational level, income level) and diabetes duration.

RESULTS

A total of 409 (97 YOD, 312 UOD) participants were recruited. Participants with YOD had lower self-efficacy levels (adjusted B = -0.19, CI -0.35 to -0.03) and higher dietary barriers (adjusted B = 3.6, CI 2.1-5.1), lower mental health scores (adjusted B = -3.5, CI -5.7 to -1.4) and higher diabetes-related distress levels (adjusted B = 0.2, CI 0.2-0.4).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found that participants with YOD faced more challenges with adapting to life with diabetes when compared with UOD. More effective self-management programmes are needed to support the multifaceted needs of adults with YOD.

Cardiometabolic risk profile of young and old adults with diabetes: Pooled, cross-sectional analysis of 42 national health surveys

AIMS

To compare levels of cardiometabolic risk factors in young and old adults with diabetes.

METHODS

Pooled analysis of 42 STEPS Surveys (n = 133,717). Diabetes was defined as self-reported diagnosis or fasting plasma glucose ≥ 126 mg/dl. There were two age groups: < 40 and ≥ 40 years. We summarized the mean levels of four cardiometabolic risk factors by country, sex and age group.

RESULTS

In 11 (men) and seven countries (women), the mean BMI seemed higher in young versus old adults; largest difference was found in men in Qatar (∼6 kg/m2). For waist circumference, such pattern was observed in two (men) and in three (women) countries; largest difference in men in Tuvalu (∼7 cm). Regarding systolic blood pressure, in one country (Myanmar) the mean was higher in young men with ∼8 mmHg difference. Women in the oldest group always had higher mean systolic blood pressure. For total cholesterol, in 13 (men) and five (women) countries the mean was higher in young adults (difference was always <1 mmol/l).

CONCLUSIONS

Levels of cardiometabolic risk factors in young versus old adults with diabetes were heterogenous across 42 countries and depended on the risk factor. This calls to monitor cardiometabolic risk factors in young adults with diabetes.

Prevention of cardiovascular disease in young adults: Focus on gender differences. A collaborative review from the EAS Young Fellows

A steady rise in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality has been observed in young adults within the last decades. This trend corresponds to an increasing prevalence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors such as obesity and diabetes mellitus type 2 among young adults living in developed countries. Moreover, age-specific risk factors, such as substance abuse, contraceptive medication, and pregnancy-related diseases also correlate with an increased incidence of cardiovascular diseases. In this review, we discuss the available data for young adults on the epidemiology and the rationale for the causality of traditional and newly emerging risk factors of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases. We focus on gender-related differences in the exposure to these risk factors, investigate the recent data regarding screening and risk stratification in the young adult population, and describe the current state of the art on lifestyle and therapeutic intervention strategies in the primary prevention setting.

Trends in cardiovascular burden and mortality among adults with prediabetes in the US, 1999-2018

BACKGROUND

Trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and mortality have been reported among US adults with diabetes, but not among those with prediabetes. This study aimed to examine and compare the trends in CVD risk factors and mortality in US adults with diabetes and prediabetes.

METHODS

In this serial, cross-sectional study, medical records of prediabetic patients from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) among adults aged 18 years or older were retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS

Data on 17,193 individuals including 7803 with diabetes and 9390 with prediabetes were analyzed from 1999-2000 to 2017-2018. A similar non-linear trend in the mean blood pressure (p = .991) and plasma fasting glucose (p = .068) was observed among the population with diabetes and prediabetes. The mean hemoglobin A1c decreased from 7.5% to 7.1% in diabetes and the trend was different from that in prediabetes (p = .004). Among both groups, a significant decline in the mean total cholesterol was identified while there was a difference in the trend (p = .003). The prevalence of hypertension remained largely the same for diabetes and it declined from 59.8% to 48.8% for prediabetes (p = .044). The prevalence of dyslipidemia increased from 40.4% to 53.5% in diabetes and it remained stable for prediabetes. The all-cause mortality decreased from 148.2 to 93.6 per 10,000 person-years between 1999-2006 and 2007-2014 in prediabetes and heart diseases mortality remained unchanged.

CONCLUSION

In the US from 1999 to 2018, the adults with prediabetes had different secular trends in the mean hemoglobin A1c and the prevalence of hypertension and dyslipidemia compared to those with diabetes. There was a significant reduction in all-cause mortality from 1999 to 2014 for the population with prediabetes. However, heart diseases mortality remained stable among them.

Trends in dietary patterns over the last decade and their association with long-term mortality in general US populations with undiagnosed and diagnosed diabetes

BACKGROUND

Dietary management plays an important role in diabetes care, while the trends in dietary patterns over the last decade in US adults with diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes remain unknown. This study aims to estimate the dietary patterns over the last decade by baseline diabetes diagnoses and explore their association with long-term prognosis.

METHODS

Participants' data were extracted from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2018, which were divided into three groups according to the diabetes diagnosis: without diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. Healthy eating index (HEI) and dietary inflammatory index (DII) were used to evaluate dietary patterns. Survival analyses were adopted to estimate the association between HEI/DII scores and long-term all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

The prevalence of diabetes was increasing among US adults over the last decade. HEI scores of all three groups presented a downward trend in recent years. Participants with undiagnosed diabetes (weighted mean: 50.58, 95% CI: 49.79, 51.36) got significantly lower HEI score in comparison to participants with diagnosed diabetes (weighted mean: 51.59, 95% CI: 50.93, 52.25). Compared with participants without diabetes, participants in the undiagnosed or diagnosed diabetes group had higher DII scores, indicating a higher dietary inflammatory potential. Survival analysis found a significant association between HEI scores and all-cause mortality and death of heart diseases. Similar correlation was observed in DII scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Along with the growth in diabetes prevalence in the US, dietary management of people with diabetes is decreasing. The management of US adults' diets needs special attention, and dietary inflammatory potential may be considered in the dietary intervention.

Association of beta-2-microglobulin with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the general and non-CKD population

β-2 microglobulin, a light chain in the major histocompatibility complex Class 1 molecule, is associated with mortality in dialysis or uremic patients. Current evidence on the relationship between beta-2-microglobulin (B2M) and mortality in the general and non-chronic kidney disease (CKD) population are limited and controversial. Data from the nutrition and health examination survey database and the nutrition and health examination survey linked mortality file were used. In total, 10,388 adults who had complete data for B2M were included. Weighted multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models and regression splines were employed to evaluate the relationship between B2M with mortality. Moreover, subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed. During a median follow up of 17.9 years (interquartile range 15.2-18.7), 2780 people died, 902 (32%) from cardiovascular disease. Restricted cubic splines showed that B2M is J-shaped nonlinear positively associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality in the non-CKD and general population. Based on the multivariable adjustment model, the adjusted hazard ratios comparing the highest versus lowest quartile of the distribution of B2M were 2.50 (95% confidence interval: 1.90, 3.28) for all-cause mortality in the general population, 2.58 (95% confidence interval: 1.52, 4.37) for cardiovascular disease mortality in the general population, 2.58 (1.91, 3.49) for all-cause mortality in the non-CKD population and 2.62 (1.52, 4.53) for cardiovascular disease mortality in the non-CKD population. The positive associations between B2M and outcomes remained broadly significant across subgroups and sensitivity analyses. Higher B2M levels were associated with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the general and non-CKD population.

Obesity, malnutrition, and the prevalence and outcome of hypertension: Evidence from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Background

Nutritionally unhealthy obesity is a newly introduced phenotype characterized by a combined condition of malnutrition and obesity. This study aims to explore the combined influence of obesity and nutritional status on the prevalence and outcome of hypertension.

Methods

Participants collected from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database were divided into four subgroups according to their obesity and nutritional conditions, as defined by waist circumference and serum albumin concentration. The lean-well-nourished was set as the reference group. Logistic regression models were applied to evaluate the hypertension risk. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to assess the survival curve and outcome risk of participants with hypertension.

Results

A total of 28,554 participants with 10,625 hypertension patients were included in the analysis. The lean-malnourished group showed a lower hypertension risk (odds ratio [OR] 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77-0.94), while the obese-well-nourished condition elevated the risk (OR 1.47, 95% CI: 1.3-1.67). Two malnourished groups had higher mortality risks (HR 1.42, 95% CI: 1.12-1.80 and HR 1.31, 95% CI: 1.03-1.69 for the lean and obese, respectively) than the reference group. The outcome risk of the obese-well-nourished group (HR 1.02, 95% CI: 0.76-1.36) was similar to the lean-well-nourished.

Conclusion

Malnutrition was associated with a lower risk of developing hypertension in both lean and obese participants, but it was associated with a worse outcome once the hypertension is present. The lean-malnourished hypertension patients had the highest all-cause mortality risk followed by the obese-malnourished. The obese-well-nourished hypertension patients showed a similar mortality risk to the lean-well-nourished hypertension patients.

Association of short-term changes in drinking after onset of a serious health condition and long-term heavy drinking

BACKGROUND

Literature on changes in drinking following diagnosis of chronic health conditions is limited, especially differential response to specific conditions or across demographic subgroups. Methods Data were analyzed from the 2020 National Alcohol Survey of the U.S. adult population (n = 9968). Predictors of change in drinking following first diagnosis of hypertension, heart disease, diabetes, and cancer, and how the short-term post-disease change in drinking was associated with a change in long-term heavy (5 +) drinking from the decade before diagnosis to the decade following diagnosis were analyzed. Results The majority of respondents reported no change in drinking after diagnosis. Men were more likely than women to reduce drinking after hypertension (OR=1.47) but less likely to quit after heart disease (OR=0.46). Black and Hispanic/Latinx drinkers were more likely than white or other drinkers to reduce (OR=2.68, 2.35, respectively) or quit (OR=2.69, 2.34) after hypertension, and more likely to quit after diabetes (OR=3.44, 2.74) and cancer (OR=5.00, 5.27). Black drinkers were more likely to quit after heart disease (OR=3.26). Heavier drinkers were more likely to reduce or quit drinking than lighter drinkers. For all disease types, those who quit drinking after disease onset were less likely to report heavy drinking in the following decade. Conclusions Just cutting down had little effect on subsequent long-term heavy drinking compared to quitting. These data are important for informing efforts aimed at harm reduction in patients diagnosed with a chronic health condition and suggest specific demographic subgroups.

Age-specific prevalence, subtypes and risk factors of metabolic diseases in Chinese adults and the different patterns from other racial/ethnic populations

Background

Age has substantial influence on metabolic diseases patterns. Ethnic disparities of metabolic characteristics between Chinese and other populations also exist. Large-scale investigations of age-specific prevalence, subtypes and modifiable risk factors of metabolic disorders are essential to promote individualized strategies for the control and prevention of metabolic diseases in multi-ethnic populations. The study aims to address the age-specific prevalence, subtype characteristics and risk factor profiles of metabolic diseases among different races/ethnicities.

Methods

We analyzed data from the China Noncommunicable Disease Surveillance 2010 and the National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Survey (NHANES). We examined the prevalence and subtypes of hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidemia across age groups in four ethnic populations. We also investigated the odds ratios (ORs) of metabolic diseases associated with 11 classical risk factors in the young and the elder Mainland Chinese.

Results

The sex and BMI standardized prevalence of hypertension in Chinese aged 18–40 years was 18.5% and was the highest among the four populations. The main pathophysiologic subtype of diabetes was characterized by insulin resistance, instead of β-cell dysfunction in Mainland Chinese, and this pattern was more evident in obese subjects. The major subtype of hyperlipidemia in Mainland Chinese was hypertriglyceridemia, while Non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks were more prone to high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. For risk of hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidemia, young Chinese adults were more prone to general and central obesity than older ones. The other factors showed similar effects on the young and the old.

Conclusions

The age-specific prevalence, subtypes and risk factors of metabolic diseases were substantially different in Chinese and other ethnic/racial populations.

Higher HEI-2015 scores are associated with lower risk of gout and hyperuricemia: Results from the national health and nutrition examination survey 2007-2016

Gout, the most prevalent inflammatory arthritis, is becoming increasingly prevalent in the United States and across the world, and it adversely impacts people’s quality of life and their health. Few studies have focused on the relationship between daily dietary quality and gout, so the topic requires further exploration. Data were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007–2016, and the inclusion criteria of the analytic sample were (1) adults, age ≥20 years, with complete information about HEI-2015, gout, and uric acid; (2) complete information of demographics, lifestyle (BMI, smoking, drinking), and disease history [hypertension, chronic kidney disease (CKD), diabetes]. The quality of the daily diet was reflected using the Healthy Eating Index 2015 (HEI-2015). The baseline features of different groups were examined using the Scott-Rao chi-square tests, and the association between the HEI-2015 score and the risk of gout/hyperuricemia (HUA) was investigated using weighted logistic regression models. The effects of different dietary components in the HEI-2015 on reducing the risk of gout/HUA were evaluated by weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression models. After adjusting for demographic characteristics, behavioral covariates, and disease history, higher HEI-2015 scores were associated with a significantly lower risk of gout (OR: 0.878, 95% CI: 0.876–0.880) and HUA (OR: 0.978, 95% CI: 0.976–0.979) in weighted logistic regression. Dairy, whole grains, plant proteins, and added sugar contributed greatly in HEI-2015 to reducing gout risk (weights of WQS index: 42, 17.18, 16.13, and 7.93%, respectively). Dairy, total fruits, greens and beans, and plant proteins contributed greatly in HEI-2015 to reducing HUA risk (weights of WQS index: 28.9, 17.13, 16.84, and 11.39%, respectively). As the result, adherence to the American Dietary Guidelines may assist to decrease the risk of gout/HUA in American adults, and greater emphasis should be placed on dairy products, whole grains, fruits, legumes, and added sugars.

Association between HBV Infection and the Prevalence of Coronary Artery Disease in the US Population

Aims

This study aims to investigate the association between HBV infection and coronary artery disease (CAD) prevalence in the US population. A nomogram was proposed to predict CAD based on HBV infection.

Methods

25,749 individuals were collected from the 2001-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Participants with hepatitis B core antibody seropositivity were identified with HBV infection, including current and previous HBV infection status. We used adjusted logistic regression and performed sensitivity analysis to investigate the association between HBV infection and the prevalence of CAD. The effect size was evaluated by odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Then, we created a nomogram to predict coronary artery disease. Additionally, we applied the Cox regression model to assess the association between HBV infection and all-cause mortality in those with baseline CAD.

Results

1790 (6.95%) individuals were with HBV infection. In the adjusted model, individuals with HBV showed a decreased CAD risk than those without (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.67-0.98). Consistently, reduced risk in self-reported angina (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52-0.98) and coronary heart disease (OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.58-0.98) was observed in the hepatitis B core antibody seropositivity group. The subgroup analysis showed a consistent trend in the subgroups of age (<45 or ≥45), gender (male or female), hypertension (no or yes), and diabetes (no or yes). In the testing set, the proposed predictive model showed good performance with an area under the curve of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.83-0.86). There was no significant association between HBV infection and all-cause mortality in CAD patients (adjusted P = 0.202).

Conclusion

Our study suggests that HBV infection was associated with lower CAD risk. The proposed nomogram showed good performance in predicting CAD. However, no significant association was observed between HBV and all-cause mortality in CAD patients.

Relation Between Dietary Carotenoid Intake, Serum Concentration, and Mortality Risk of CKD Patients Among US Adults: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001–2014

Background

Current evidence on the relationship between carotenoids and chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients are limited and controversial.

Methods

Data were obtained from the Nutrition and Health Examination Survey (NHANES) database and the NHANES Linked Mortality File, both from a nationally representative sample. Dietary intake was assessed through 24-h dietary recall, and information was available both on dietary and serum α-carotene, β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, lycopene, and lutein/zeaxanthin (combined) through the NHANES cycles used. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate the risk for all-cause mortality associated with carotene intakes and serum levels, adjusting for potential confounding factors.

Results

Of the 6,095 CKD participants, 1,924 subjects died (mean follow-up time, 8.1 years). After eliminating all the confounding factors, we found that high levels of total carotene (HR = 0.85, 95% CI, 0.75-0.97, P = 0.011) intakes at baseline were significantly associated with a lower risk of death. And the serum concentrations of carotenoid were also showing that a-carotene (HR = 0.77, 95%CI, 0.65–0.92, P = 0.002), beta-cryptoxanthin (HR = 0.83, 95%CI, 0.70–0.98, P = 0.019), lycopene (HR = 0.77, 95% CI, 0.65–0.91, P = 0.002), and lutein + zeaxanthin (HR = 0.82, 95% CI, 0.70–0.96, P = 0.002) was significantly associated with decreased all-cause mortality of CKD patients. The associations remained similar in the sensitivity analyses.

Conclusion

Findings suggest that high-level carotene dietary intake and the serum concentration were associated with a lower risk of mortality in the CKD population.

High waist circumference is a risk factor for hypertension in normal-weight or overweight individuals with normal metabolic profiles

This study aims to investigate the relationship between waist circumference and hypertension risk in normal‐weight/overweight individuals with normal cardiometabolic profiles. The authors included 7217 normal‐weight and overweight individuals with normal cardiometabolic profiles from the 2001 to 2014 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The authors summarized demographic characteristics, cardiometabolic profiles, and behavioral factors across waist circumference quartiles. Then, in the logistic regression analysis, the authors observed a positive and significant association between waist circumference (as a continuous variable) and the prevalence of hypertension in all three models (nonadjusted, minimally adjusted, and fully adjusted), with odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 1.76 (1.65–1.86), 1.29 (1.20–1.39), and 1.24 (1.09–1.40), respectively. When analyzed as a categorical variable, individuals in the highest waist circumference group had a 1.48‐fold increased risk of hypertension than the lowest group in the fully adjusted model. Moreover, the Cox regression analysis revealed a positive and significant association between waist circumference and all‐cause mortality in individuals with hypertension in the nonadjusted model (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.10–1.47) and the fully adjusted model (HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.22–2.06). In conclusions, our results showed that, even in those with normal metabolic profiles, high waist circumference was significantly associated with the increased prevalence of hypertension. And once hypertension has been established, patients with high waist circumference showed elevated all‐cause mortality. Therefore, waist circumference should be routinely measured and controlled regardless of metabolic profiles.

NDSP-10: The Cardiometabolic Risk Profile with Various Degrees of Dysglycemia in Younger and Older Adults: Findings from the Second National Diabetes Survey of Pakistan 2016-2017

Background: To assess and compare the cardiometabolic risk profile of the Pakistani population between younger (<45 years) and older adults (≥45 years). Methods: This is a substudy of a nationally representative community-based epidemiological second National Diabetes Survey of Pakistan (NDSP) 2016-2017. Out of 12,486 individuals approached, 10,834 participants agreed to be included (response rate 87%). Cardiovascular risk factors assessed were obesity, central obesity, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and tobacco use. Participants were stratified into young adults (<45 years) and older adults (≥45 years) and was subcategorized into four groups that is, diagnosed diabetes mellitus (DM), undiagnosed DM, prediabetes, and without diabetes. Results: Around 14.3% were prediabetes, 8.8% were undiagnosed DM, and 24% were diagnosed diabetes. Most participants in dysglycemic (prediabetes, undiagnosed DM, and diagnosed DM) groups were females and were from rural regions. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors were more noted in dysglycemic states, compared with without diabetes. Overall CVD risk profile was worse in males in both age categories, although the accumulation of four or five CVD risk factors at one point was more predominant in females in either age group. Conclusion: Overall, the preponderance of CVD risk factors, such as overweight, obesity, central obesity, tobacco use, ex-tobacco uses, and dyslipidemia, were substantially more prevalent in dysglycemia groups of young adults (<45 years) compared with older adults (≥45 years). Early and targeted intervention in young may prevent poor CVD outcomes as they age.

Low-level plasticizer exposure and all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in the general population

BACKGROUND

Plasticizers, also called phthalates, are a group of chemicals widely used in daily life. A previous report showed no significant association between phthalate metabolite concentrations and mortality. We investigated the association of urinary phthalate levels and individual phthalate metabolite levels with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality after standardizing the phthalate concentration.

METHODS

A total of 6,625 participants were recruited from a nationally representative sample of adults aged 40 years or older who were enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) between 2003 and 2014 and were followed up through December 31, 2015. Data were analyzed from January 2021 to June 2021. NHANES-linked updated National Death Index public access files were used to acquire information on mortality status and cause of death. The present study conducted extended follow-up of an earlier analysis. Cox proportional hazard models were performed to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of covariate-adjusted creatinine standardization urinary phthalate concentrations with all-cause and CVD mortality after adjusting for demographics, lifestyle factors and comorbidity variables.

RESULTS

The mean ± standard deviation age of all participants in the final study was 59.9±12.6 years old, and 49.6% of the participants were male. The median follow-up time was 73 months (range 1-157 months). At the censoring date of December 31, 2015, 3,023 participants were identified as deceased (13.4%). A fully adjusted Cox model showed that a urinary di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) concentration >= 83.4 ng/mL was associated with a slight increase in all-cause mortality (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.03, 1.57, P for trend= 0.014) and CVD mortality (HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.35, 3.54, P for trend= 0.002). Similarly, urinary mono-2-ethyl-5-carboxypentyl phthalate (MECPP) levels >= 39.2 ng/mL were associated with increased CVD mortality (HR 2.33, 95% CI 1.45, 3.73, P for trend < 0.001). Restricted cubic spline analyses suggested linear associations of DEHP and MECPP levels with all-cause and CVD mortality.

CONCLUSION

In this large nationally representative sample of American adults, high urinary DEHP and MECPP were significantly associated with all-cause and CVD mortality after adjusting for demographics, lifestyle factors and comorbidity variables.

Socioeconomic status and risk factors for complications in young people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes: a cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

Young people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) develop complications earlier than those with type 1 diabetes (T1D) of comparable duration, but it is unclear why. This apparent difference in phenotype could relate to relative inequality.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Cross-sectional study of young people referred to secondary diabetes services in Auckland, Aotearoa-New Zealand (NZ): 731 with T1D and 1350 with T2D currently aged <40 years, and diagnosed between 15 and 30 years. Outcome measures were risk factors for complications (glycemic control, urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR), cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk) in relation to a validated national index of deprivation (New Zealand Deprivation Index (NZDep)).

RESULTS

Young people with T2D were an average 3 years older than those with T1D but had a similar duration of diabetes. 71% of those with T2D were of Māori or Pasifika descent, compared with 24% with T1D (p<0.001). T1D cases were distributed evenly across NZDep categories. 78% of T2D cases were living in the lowest four NZDep categories (p<0.001). In both diabetes types, body mass index (BMI) increased progressively across the NZDep spectrum (p<0.002), as did mean glycated hemoglobin (HbA_1c) (p<0.001), the prevalence of macroalbuminuria (p≤0.01), and CVD risk (p<0.001). Adjusting for BMI, diabetes type, and duration and age, multiple logistic regression revealed deprivation was the strongest risk factor for poorly controlled diabetes (defined as HbA_1c >64 mmol/mol, >8%); OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.22, p<0.0001. Ordinal logistic regression showed each decile increase in NZDep increased the odds of a higher ACR by 11% (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.16, p<0.001) following adjustment for BMI, blood pressure, diabetes type and duration, HbA_1c, and smoking status. Multiple linear regression indicated a 4% increase in CVD risk for every decile increase in NZDep, regardless of diabetes type.

CONCLUSIONS

The apparent more aggressive phenotype of young-onset T2D is at least in part explicable by relative deprivation.

Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and mortality of chronic kidney disease: results from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999–2014

Background

The relationship between intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and the risk of death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unclear. We evaluated the association between SSB intake and subsequent overall mortality in CKD patients.

Methods

We included data from 3996 CKD patients who participated in the 1999–2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). SSB intake was assessed by a 24-h dietary recall, grouped as none, >0 to <1 serving/day, 1 to <2 servings/day and ≥2 servings/day. After adjusting for demographic variables, lifestyle, diet and comorbidities, Cox proportional risk regressions were applied to analyze the associations between the daily intake of SSBs as well as added sugar from beverages and all-cause mortality.

Results

In the whole research population, the median age at baseline was 67 years, 22% were Black and 54% were female. A total of 42% had stage 3 CKD. During an average follow-up period of 8.3 years, a sum of 1137 (28%) deaths from all causes was recorded. The confounder-adjusted risk of mortality was associated with an increase of 1 serving/day of SSBs, with all-cause mortality of 1.18 [95% confidence interval (95% CI)1.08–1.28], and intakes of increased 20-g added sugar/1000 kcal of total energy per day were associated with all-cause mortality of 1.14 (1.05–1.24). Equivalently substituting 1 serving/day of SSBs with unsweetened coffee [HR (95% CI) 0.82 (0.74–0.91)], unsweetened tea [HR (95% CI) 0.86 (0.76–0.98)], plain water [HR (95% CI) 0.79 (0.71–0.88)], or non- or low-fat milk [HR (95% CI) 0.75 (0.60–0.93)] were related to a 14–25% reduced risk of all-cause mortality.

Conclusion

Findings suggest that in the CKD population, increased SSB intake was associated with a higher risk of mortality and indicated a stratified association with dose. Plain water and unsweetened coffee/tea might be possible alternatives for SSBs to avert untimely deaths.

Association Between Waist Circumference and the Prevalence of (Pre) Hypertension Among 27,894 US Adults

Aims: This study aimed to investigate the association between waist circumference and the prevalence of (pre) hypertension.

Methods: Cross-sectional data from the 2007–2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were analyzed. The historical trend of abdominal obesity was assessed by the Cochran–Armitage trend test. After preprocessed by the multiple imputation strategy, we used generalized additive models to assess the association of waist circumference with systolic/diastolic blood pressure and performed correlation analysis by the Spearman correlation coefficient. Moreover, we used multivariable logistic regression (non-adjusted, minimally adjusted, and fully adjusted models), restricted cubic spline, and sensitivity analysis to investigate the association between waist circumference and (pre) hypertension.

Results: A total of 27,894 participants were included in this study. In the fully adjusted model, waist circumference was positively associated with (pre) hypertension with odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 1.28 (1.18–1.40) in the young group and 1.23 (1.15–1.33) in the old group. Restricted cubic spline showed a higher prevalence of (pre) hypertension with the increase of waist circumference. In the subgroup analysis, waist circumference showed a robust trend across all BMI categories with odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 3.33 (1.29–8.85), 1.35 (1.17–1.57), 1.27 (1.13–1.41), and 1.09 (1.01–1.17) in underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obese individuals, respectively.

Conclusion: This study highlighted waist circumference as a significant biomarker to evaluate the risk of (pre) hypertension. Our results supported the measure of waist circumference regardless of BMI when evaluating the cardiometabolic risk related to fat distribution.

Declining mortality in older people with type 2 diabetes masks rising excess risks at younger ages: a population-based study of all-cause and cause-specific mortality over 13 years

BACKGROUND

Excess mortality in people with vs without type 2 diabetes (T2DM) has fallen, but it is unclear whether men/women at all ages have benefited and which causes of death have driven these trends.

METHODS

All-cause and cause-specific mortality rates and excess mortality [by mortality rate ratios (MRRs) relative to the non-diabetic general population] were examined in 1 268 018 Australians with T2DM registered on the National Diabetes Services Scheme (2002-2014).

RESULTS

Age-standardized mortality decreased in men (-2.2%/year; Ptrend < 0.001) and women with T2DM (-1.3%/year; Ptrend < 0.001) throughout 2002-14, which translated to declines in the MRRs (from 1.51 to 1.45 in men; 1.59 to 1.46 in women; Ptrend < 0.05 for both). Declining mortality rates in T2DM were observed in men aged 40+ years and women aged 60+ years (Ptrends <0.001), but not at younger ages. However, the only age group in which excess mortality declined relative to those without diabetes was 80+ years (Ptrends < 0.05); driven by reductions in excess cancer-related deaths in men and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women. Among age groups <80 years, CVD and cancer MRRs remained similar or increased over time, despite falls in both CVD and cancer mortality rates. MRRs for non-CVD/non-cancer-related deaths increased in 60-79 year-olds, but were otherwise unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS

Declining excess mortality attributable to T2DM from 2002-14 was driven entirely by reductions in those aged 80+ years. Declines in total mortality among those with T2DM were apparent in more age groups, but often to a lesser extent than in the general population, thereby serving to increase the excess risk associated with T2DM.

Twenty years of pediatric diabetes surveillance: what do we know and why it matters

SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth (SEARCH) was initiated in 2000 as a multicenter study to address major gaps in the understanding of childhood diabetes in the United States. An active registry of youth diagnosed with diabetes at age <20 years since 2002 assessed prevalence, annual incidence, and trends by age, race/ethnicity, sex, and diabetes type. An observational cohort nested within the population-based registry was established to assess the natural history and risk factors for acute and chronic diabetes-related complications, as well as the quality of care and quality of life of children and adolescents with diabetes from diagnosis into young adulthood. SEARCH findings have contributed to a better understanding of the complex and heterogeneous nature of youth-onset diabetes. Continued surveillance of the burden and risk of type 1 and type 2 diabetes is important to track and monitor incidence and prevalence within the population. SEARCH reported evidence of early diabetes complications highlighting that continuing the long-term follow-up of youth with diabetes is necessary to further our understanding of its natural history and to develop the most appropriate approaches to primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention of diabetes and its complications. This review summarizes two decades of research and suggests avenues for further work.

When belongingness backfires: experienced discrimination predicts increased cardiometabolic risk among college students high in social belonging

Research implicates experiences of discrimination in exacerbating cardiometabolic disease (CMD) risk. Belongingness has been suggested as a buffer against the adverse effects of discrimination. However, when discrimination occurs in an environment to which one feels they belong, then the potential benefits of belongingness may dissipate or even exacerbate the effects of discrimination. In the present study, we examined these competing hypotheses on how campus belonging might moderate the relationship between discrimination experienced on campus and CMD risk. College students (n = 160, 60.9% Latino/a/x) reported the frequency of on-campus discrimination and campus belongingness, and then completed items assessing risk for CMD. More frequent discrimination related to higher comparative CMD risk among those who reported high campus belongingness, even after adjusting for relevant covariates. These findings highlight the complicated nature of belongingness in the context of physical health. Future research is needed to better understand the role of environment when considering morbidity among college students.

Cardiometabolic Risk Factors leading to Diabetes Mellitus among the Young (YOD) from the 8th Philippine National Nutrition Survey

Objectives

This study looked into the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) and risks for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases among young adults with diabetes (age 20-44 years old, YOD) and late-onset DM (≥45 years old, LOD) in Filipinos.

Methodology

Weighted data from 546,580 adults with DM from the 8^th Philippine National Nutrition and Health Survey (NNHeS) were utilized. Differences in sociodemographic, anthropometric, clinical profiles and metabolic risks were compared between YOD and LOD.

Results

The aggregated prevalence of DM is 5.43% (95%CI, 5.10–5.79), YOD were 2.64% (95% CI, 2.32–3.00) and LOD 9.85% (95%CI, 9.18–10.56). Mean age of YOD was 37,6 years, LOD 59,9 years. The YOD were mostly males (56%), with higher BMI (26.24 kg/m² vs 25 kg/m², p=0.002), lower mean SBP (122.41±19.17 mmHg vs 135.45±22.47 mmHg, p<0.001), more daily smokers (23% vs 14%), and alcoholic beverage drinkers (39% vs 31%). Physical activity was similar between groups (44% vs 51%, p=0.078). However, average total caloric intake (1776.78±758.38 kcal vs 1596.88±639.16 kcal, p=0.023) and carbohydrate intake (306.13±142.16 grams vs 270.53±104.74 g, p=0.014) were higher in YOD. Dietary carbohydrate proportions were higher than recommended (69% vs 68%) for both groups. Young Filipinos had higher risk to develop diabetes when they are obese II (22% vs 12%), current drinker (56% vs 37%), and current smoker (28% vs 18%). Eighty percent of YOD and LOD had metabolic syndrome (MetS). With every unit increase in age and fat intake, the odds of having MetS were raised by 5.4% (95%CI 1%–10%, p=0.029) and 1.6% (95%CI 0.04%-3%, p=0.044), respectively.

Conclusion

Early-onset diabetes mellitus appears to be driven by obesity, MetS and social behaviors. Modifiable risk factors can be improved early to decrease hazards to develop cardiometabolic complications.

Prevalence, Awareness, Treatment, and Poor Control of Hypertension Among Young American Adults: Race-Stratified Analysis of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the race-stratified trends for prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension in young American adults aged 18 to 44 years.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2005-2016 for adults aged 18 to 44 years was used to calculate age-adjusted (using 2005, 2010, and 2015 US Census population proportions) weighted trends in prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension among non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Mexican-American participants as per the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines. Trends were estimated by logistic regression models including demographic, socioeconomic, health care access, and Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons as covariates.

RESULTS

Among 15,171 young American adults, stable trends for the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension was seen in all racial groups (P_{linear trend}>.05 for all). The prevalence from 2013 to 2016 was highest in non-Hispanic blacks (30.7%; 95% CI, 27.3 to 34.0%), followed by non-Hispanic whites (21.9%; 95% CI, 19.6 to 24.1%), and Mexican Americans (21.9%; 95% CI, 18.6 to 25.1%). The awareness was stable at ∼43.2% in non-Hispanic blacks, ∼34.8% in non-Hispanic whites, and ∼28.4% in Mexican Americans from 2005 to 2008 through 2013 to 2016. The stable treatment rates at nearly 34.4%, 23.7%, and 20.6%, were seen in non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Mexican-Americans, respectively. The optimal control of hypertension was seen in 14.5% (95% CI, 12.1 to 17.0%) non-Hispanic blacks, 12.2% (95% CI, 10.3 to 14.0%) non-Hispanic whites, and 10.3% (95% CI, 7.1 to 13.5%) Mexican Americans from 2013 to 2016.

CONCLUSION

Nearly one in every three non-Hispanic young black and one in every five young Mexican American and non-Hispanic white adults have hypertension. Our race-stratified analyses highlight the categorical need to improve the abysmal control of hypertension which is approximately 1 in 10 young adults.

Cardiovascular morbidity, diabetes and cancer risk among children and adolescents with severe obesity

Severe obesity among children and adolescents is a significant global public health concern. The prevalence has markedly increased over the last decades, becoming common in many countries. Overwhelming rates of obesity among youth have prompted efforts to identify an evidence-based immediate- and long-term cardiometabolic risk factor profile in childhood-onset severe obesity, and to highlight gaps that require further investigation. The PubMed database was systematically searched in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. The search yielded 831 results, of which 60 fulfilled stringent criteria and were summarized in this review. The definition of severe obesity was variable, with only one half the publications using the definition BMI > 120% of the 95th percentile. Point estimates of the prevalence of at least one cardiometabolic risk factor in children with severe obesity reportedly range from 67 to 86%. Cross-sectional studies indicate that children and adolescents with severe obesity are at greater risk than those with mild obesity for type 2 diabetes, hypertension, fatty liver disease and dyslipidemia, already at childhood and adolescence. Robust epidemiological data on the long-term risk and actual point estimates in adulthood are lacking for these diseases as well as for other diseases (coronary heart disease, stroke, chronic kidney disease and cancer). Recent longitudinal studies indicate an increased risk for cardiomyopathy, heart failure, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality in adulthood for adolescents with severe obesity compared to those with mild obesity. Given the alarming increase in the prevalence of severe obesity, the persistence of adiposity from childhood to adulthood and the precarious course of young adults with chronic comorbidities, the economic and clinical services burden on the healthcare system is expected to rise.

Metformin and Vascular Diseases: A Focused Review on Smooth Muscle Cell Function

Metformin has been used in diabetes for more than 60 years and has excellent safety in the therapy of human type 2 diabetes (T2D). There is growing evidence that the beneficial health effects of metformin are beyond its ability to improve glucose metabolism. Metformin not only reduces the incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in T2D patients, but also reduces the burden of atherosclerosis (AS) in pre-diabetes patients. Vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) function is an important factor in determining the characteristics of the entire arterial vessel. Its excessive proliferation contributes to the etiology of several types of CVD, including AS, restenosis, and pulmonary hypertension. Current studies show that metformin has a beneficial effect on VSMCs function. Therefore, this review provides a timely overview of the role and molecular mechanisms by which metformin acts through VSMCs to protect CVD.

Durability of glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes after metformin failure: Prognostic model derivation and validation using the DISCOVER study

AIM

To develop and internally validate prognostic models on the long-term durability of glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes after metformin failure.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

DISCOVER is a 3-year, prospective observational study across six continents investigating second-line glucose-lowering therapies. In this analysis from 35 countries, we included patients on metformin initiating second-line glucose-lowering medication(s) because of physician-defined lack of efficacy. The outcome was durability of glycaemic control, defined as three consecutive levels of HbA1c at 6-, 12- and 24-month follow-up at target (HbA1c equal to or lower than the level when the physician initiated the second-line therapy in patients with baseline HbA1c ≤7% [53 mmol/mol]; and equal to or lower than 7% in those with baseline HbA1c >7%). We developed and internally validated two prognostic models: a base model, which included age, sex, ethnicity, country income group, baseline HbA1c and second-line therapy, and an advanced model, established through statistical variable selections from a model including base variables and 13 additional predictors selected from a literature review. We used logistic regression to develop and 500 bootstrapping samples to internally validate the models; discrimination and calibration were used to assess model performance.

RESULTS

Overall, 896 out of 2995 participants (29.9%) had sustained glycaemic control. The base model performed well: Nagelkerke R² was 0.13, C-index 0.70 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.71) and bias-corrected C-index 0.69 after internal validation. Diabetes duration, insurance type, estimated glomerular filtration rate and glucose self-monitoring were additionally selected in the advanced model, which had only a slightly better performance compared with the base model: Nagelkerke R² 0.20, C-index 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.73) and bias-corrected C-index 0.70. Calibration plots showed good calibrations of both validated models.

CONCLUSION

These prognostic models, which include simple demographic and routinely collected clinical information, enabled the estimation of the probability of 2-year sustained glycaemic control in patients after metformin failure. The models have been implemented into a web-based tool to support healthcare professionals in their decisions.

The Association Between Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Parkinson's Disease

In recent years, an emerging body of evidence has forged links between Parkinson's disease (PD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). In observational studies, those with T2DM appear to be at increased risk of developing PD, as well as experiencing faster progression and a more severe phenotype of PD, with the effects being potentially mediated by several common cellular pathways. The insulin signalling pathway, for example, may be responsible for neurodegeneration via insulin dysregulation, aggregation of amyloids, neuroinflammation, mitochondrial dysfunction and altered synaptic plasticity. In light of these potential shared disease mechanisms, clinical trials are now investigating the use of established diabetes drugs targeting insulin resistance in the management of PD. This review will discuss the epidemiological links between T2DM and PD, the potential shared cellular mechanisms, and assess the relevant treatment options for disease modification of PD.