Smoking-related deaths averted due to three years of policy progress

SNARE proteins: Core engines of membrane fusion in cancer

Vesicles are loaded with a variety of cargoes, including membrane proteins, secreted proteins, signaling molecules, and various enzymes, etc. Not surprisingly, vesicle transport is essential for proper cellular life activities including growth, division, movement and cellular communication. Soluble N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive factor attachment protein receptors (SNAREs) mediate membrane fusion of vesicles with their target compartments that is fundamental for cargo delivery. Recent studies have shown that multiple SNARE family members are aberrantly expressed in human cancers and actively contribute to malignant proliferation, invasion, metastasis, immune evasion and treatment resistance. Here, the localization and function of SNARE proteins in eukaryotic cells are firstly mapped. Then we summarize the expression and regulation of SNAREs in cancer, and describe their contribution to cancer progression and mechanisms, and finally we propose engineering botulinum toxin as a strategy to target SNAREs for cancer treatment.

Global smoking-related deaths averted due to MPOWER policies implemented at the highest level between 2007 and 2020

BACKGROUND

In response to the harm caused by tobacco use worldwide, the World Health Organization (WHO) World Health Assembly actioned the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2005. To help countries meet their FCTC obligations, the WHO introduced in 2008 the MPOWER policy package and by 2020 the FCTC had been ratified by 182 parties. The package consists of six evidence-based demand reduction smoking cessation policies to assist countries to achieve best practice. We used published evaluation results and replicated the published model to estimate current policy achievement and demonstrate the impact and equity of the MPOWER policy package in reducing the global number of smokers and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) between 2007 and 2020.

METHODS

We replicated an evaluation model (the Abridged SimSmoke model) used previously for country impact assessments and validated our replicated reduction in SADs for policies between 2014 and 2016 against the published results. The replicated model was then applied to report on the country level SADs averted from achieving the highest level of implementation, that is best practice in MPOWER policies, between 2016 and 2020. The latest results were then combined with past published results to estimate the reduction in SADs since the commencement of the MPOWER policy package. Country level income status was used to investigate the equity in the uptake of MPOWER policies worldwide.

RESULTS

Identical estimates for SADs in 41 out of 56 MPOWER policies implemented in 43 countries suggested good agreement in the model replication. The replicated model overestimated the reduction in SADs by 159,800 (1.5%) out of a total of 10.5 million SADs with three countries contributing to the majority of this replication discrepancy. Updated analysis estimated a reduction of 8.57 million smokers and 3.37 million SADs between 2016 and 2020. Between 2007 and 2020, 136 countries had adopted and maintained at least one MPOWER policy at the highest level which was associated with a reduction in 81.0 million smokers and 28.3 million SADs. Seventy five percent of this reduction was in middle income countries, 20% in high income and less than 5% in low income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable progress has been made by MPOWER policies to reduce the prevalence of smokers globally. However, there is inequality in the implementation and maintenance, reach and influence, and the number of SADs averted. Future research to modify the model could provide a more comprehensive evaluation of past and future progress in tobacco control policies, worldwide.

Reductions in smoking due to ratification of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control in 171 countries

Smoking globally kills over half of long-term smokers and causes about 7 million annual deaths. The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) is the main global policy strategy to combat smoking, but its effectiveness is uncertain. Our interrupted time series analyses compared before- and after-FCTC trends in the numbers and prevalence of smokers below the age of 25 years (when smoking initiation occurs and during which response to interventions is greatest) and on cessation at 45-59 years (when quitting probably occurs) in 170 countries, excluding China. Contrasting the 10 years after FCTC ratification with the income-specific before-FCTC trends, we observed cumulative decreases of 15.5% (95% confidence interval = -33.2 to -0.7) for the numbers of current smokers and decreases of -7.5% (95% CI = -10.6 to -4.5) for the prevalence of smoking below age 25 years. The quit ratio (comparing the numbers of former and ever smokers) at 45-59 years increased by 1.8% (1.2 to 2.3) 10 years after FCTC ratification. Countries raising taxes by at least 10 percentage points concurrent with ratification observed steeper decreases in all three outcomes than countries that did not. Over a decade across 170 countries, the FCTC was associated with 24 million fewer young smokers and 2 million more quitters.

The Effects of Oral Nicotine Pouch Packaging Features on Adult Tobacco Users' and Non-Users' Product Perceptions

BACKGROUND

Oral nicotine pouches (ONPs) are novel products that are marketed as "tobacco-free" alternatives to cigarettes and smokeless tobacco (ST). This study examined the effects of ONP packaging features on adult tobacco users' and non-users' product perceptions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Adult tobacco users (cigarettes, ST, and dual cigarette/ST) and non-users (total N = 301) viewed ONP pack images in a 4 × 3 × 2 between-subject experiment testing the effects of the displayed flavor (cool mint, coffee, dark frost, and smooth), nicotine concentration (none displayed on the package, 3 mg, and 6 mg), and addiction warning label (yes or no). The outcomes were perceived substitutability of ONPs for cigarettes and ST and perceived risks. We modeled the effects of tobacco user status and the experimental factors on these outcomes.

RESULTS

All tobacco user groups perceived ONPs to be significantly less harmful and less addictive than non-users. There were significant effects of nicotine concentration on perceived risks. Compared to packages that did not display nicotine concentration, packages displaying 6 mg nicotine concentration produced significantly lower perceived harm (β = -0.23, 95% CI -0.44, -0.02), perceived addictiveness (β = -0.28, 95% CI -0.51, -0.05), risk appraisals of harm (β = -0.50, 95% CI -0.88, -0.12) and risk appraisals of addictiveness (β = -0.53, 95% CI -0.95, -0.11).

CONCLUSIONS

The study findings demonstrate that the nicotine concentration displayed on ONP packaging can affect adults' perceptions of ONPs. Further research on the effects of ONP packaging features emphasizing nicotine (e.g., "tobacco free" nicotine claims) on tobacco users and non-users is needed to assess their potential public health impact.

Estimating the changing disease burden attributable to smoking in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012

Background. Ongoing quantification of the disease burden attributable to smoking is important to monitor and strengthen tobacco control policies.Objectives. To estimate the attributable burden due to smoking in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.Methods. We estimated attributable burden due to smoking for selected causes of death in South African (SA) adults aged ≥35 years for 2000, 2006 and 2012. We combined smoking prevalence results from 15 national surveys (1998 - 2017) and smoking impact ratios using national mortality rates. Relative risks between smoking and select causes of death were derived from local and international data. Results. Smoking prevalence declined from 25.0% in 1998 (40.5% in males, 10.9% in females) to 19.4% in 2012 (31.9% in males, 7.9% in females), but plateaued after 2010. In 2012 tobacco smoking caused an estimated 31 078 deaths (23 444 in males and 7 634 in females), accounting for 6.9% of total deaths of all ages (17.3% of deaths in adults aged ≥35 years), a 10.5% decline overall since 2000 (7% in males; 18% in females). Age-standardised mortality rates (and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)) similarly declined in all population groups but remained high in the coloured population. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease accounted for most tobacco-attributed deaths (6 373), followed by lung cancer (4 923), ischaemic heart disease (4 216), tuberculosis (2 326) and lower respiratory infections (1 950). The distribution of major causes of smoking-attributable deaths shows a middle- to high-income pattern in whites and Asians, and a middle- to low-income pattern in coloureds and black Africans. The role of infectious lung disease (TB and LRIs) has been underappreciated. These diseases comprised 21.0% of deaths among black Africans compared with only 4.3% among whites. It is concerning that smoking rates have plateaued since 2010. Conclusion. The gains achieved in reducing smoking prevalence in SA have been eroded since 2010. An increase in excise taxes is the most effective measure for reducing smoking prevalence. The advent of serious respiratory pandemics such as COVID-19 has increased the urgency of considering the role that smoking cessation/abstinence can play in the prevention of, and post-hospital recovery from, any condition.

A longitudinal analysis of MPOWER implementation, 2008-2018

Background

In 2008, the World Health Organization (WHO) introduced MPOWER-a package of evidence-based, high-impact policy measures to help countries reduce tobacco use. These measures align with selected articles within the World Health Organization’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), a global public health treaty to prevent and reduce tobacco use.

Methods

Observational longitudinal study involving 195 countries that submitted biannual national reports between 2008 and 2018. To report changes in MPOWER scores, countries were assessed using a validated checklist of the seven MPOWER indicators and a maximum possible unweighted composite score of 34 points. Covariate analysis was conducted among selected health, sociopolitical, and economic indicators.

Results

176 out of 195 countries improved their MPOWER scores between 2008 and 2018, with two achieving full implementation (Brazil and Turkey). Twenty-three (23) countries representing 11.2% of the global population recorded an MPOWER scoring increase of at least 10 points between 2008 and 2018. The overall mean 10-year scoring increase was 5.1 points or a relative improvement of 27.1%. In 2018, 20 countries representing 10.4% of the global population excelled in MPOWER implementation by receiving a total composite score of at least 30 of 34 possible points. The MPOWER elements with the highest degree of implementation in 2018 include Warn (package), Protect (smoking ban) and Enforce (ad ban). Several covariates were positively associated with higher levels of MPOWER implementation, including cigarette affordability, the existence of national tobacco control objectives, the human development index score, the national corruption index score, national literacy rates and the political regime index score.

Conclusions

MPOWER implementation increased markedly between 2008 and 2018 in all seven WHO regions and countries representing all four World Bank income classifications. However, only two countries achieved full implementation by 2018. More work is needed to improve MPOWER implementation. Countries with low-income levels, compromised human development, reduced literacy rates, higher rates of corruption, and autocratic political regimes appear to struggle more with MPOWER implementation.

A Socio-Ecological Framework for Cancer Prevention in Low and Middle-Income Countries

Cancer incidence and mortality rates continue to rise globally, a trend mostly driven by preventable cancers occurring in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). There is growing concern that many LMICs are ill-equipped to cope with markedly increased burden of cancer due to lack of comprehensive cancer control programs that incorporate primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention strategies. Notably, few countries have allocated budgets to implement such programs. In this review, we utilize a socio-ecological framework to summarize primary (risk reduction), secondary (early detection), and tertiary (treatment and survivorship) strategies to reduce the cancer burden in these countries across the individual, organizational, community, and policy levels. We highlight strategies that center on promoting health behaviors and reducing cancer risk, including diet, tobacco, alcohol, and vaccine uptake, approaches to promote routine cancer screenings, and policies to support comprehensive cancer treatment. Consistent with goals promulgated by the United Nations General Assembly on Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control, our review supports the development and implementation of sustainable national comprehensive cancer control plans in partnership with local communities to enhance cultural relevance and adoption, incorporating strategies across the socio-ecological framework. Such a concerted commitment will be necessary to curtail the rising cancer and chronic disease burden in LMICs.

Health Effects of Tobacco at the Global, Regional, and National Levels: Results From the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

INTRODUCTION

The purpose was to quantify the health effects of tobacco using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study.

AIMS AND METHODS

We collected detailed information on tobacco consumption overall as well as its individual aspects (smoking, secondhand smoke, and chewing tobacco) for the deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for all-cause disease, cardiovascular disease, neoplasms, and chronic respiratory diseases, and their age-standardized rates (ASRs).

RESULTS

Tobacco was responsible for 8.71 million deaths and 229.77 million DALYs globally in 2019. The ASRs of all tobacco-related deaths and DALYs declined from 1990 to 2019, to 108.55 deaths per 100 000 population and 2791.04 DALYs per 100 000 population in 2019. During any year the ASRs of all tobacco-related deaths and DALYs were higher in males than in females. The ASRs of all tobacco-related deaths and DALYs were highest in countries with a low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) and lowest in high-SDI countries in 2019. Cardiovascular disease, neoplasms, and chronic respiratory diseases were the three leading causes of tobacco-related mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the ASRs of deaths and DALYs related to tobacco have declined, the absolute number remain high. Tobacco control policies need to be strengthened further in order to reduce the heavy health burden of tobacco.

IMPLICATIONS

This study provides a detailed description on the health effects of tobacco, including maps of the current global burden of tobacco-related disease. Although the ASRs of tobacco-related deaths and DALYs have declined, the absolute numbers remain high-tobacco was responsible for 8.71 million deaths and 229.77 million DALYs globally in 2019. The findings may have implications for tobacco control. Countries where progress has been slower in reducing tobacco-related disease burden should study and consider implementing policies and strategies that have been applied in countries like Singapore which show the greatest declines for recent decades.

Modelling the expected impact of cigarette tax and price increases under Vietnam's excise tax law 2015-2020

BACKGROUND

Vietnam's national tobacco control strategy aims to reduce the rate of smoking among male adults from 45% in 2015 to 39% by 2020. The aim of this paper is to assess what contribution cigarette tax increases under Vietnam's current excise tax plan can be expected to make to this target, and to discuss what additional measures might be implemented accordingly.

METHODS

This study uses a mix of administrative datasets and predictive modelling techniques to assess the expected impact of tax and price increases on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and the rate of smoking between 2015 and 2020.

FINDINGS

The average retail price of cigarettes is estimated to have increased by 16% (sensitivity analysis: 14%-18%) in inflation-adjusted terms between 2015 and 2020, while cigarette consumption is projected to decrease by 5.1% (4.5%-5.5%). The rate of smoking among males is projected to decrease to 42.8% (42.1%-43.6%) compared with the target of 39%. Total tax revenues from cigarettes are projected to increase by 21% (19%-23%), reflecting an extra ₫3300 billion in inflation-adjusted revenues for the government.

CONCLUSION

The current excise tax law is expected to have only a modest impact on the rate of smoking in Vietnam, though it has generated tax revenues. If Vietnam is to achieve its tobacco control targets, the government should implement a mixed excise system with a high-specific component to promote public health by raising the price of cigarettes more significantly.

Quantile regression of tobacco tax pass-through in the UK 2013-2019. How have manufacturers passed through tax changes for different tobacco products?

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of tax increases relies heavily on the tobacco industry passing on such increases to smokers (also referred to as 'pass-through'). Previous research has found heterogeneous levels of tax pass-through across the market segments of tobacco products available to smokers. This study uses retail sales data to assess the extent to which recent tax changes have been passed on to smokers and whether this varies across the price distribution.

METHODS

We use panel data quantile regression analysis on Nielsen commercial data of tobacco price and sales in the UK from January 2013 to March 2019 combined with official UK tax rates and inflation to calculate the rate of tax pass-through for factory made (FM) cigarettes and roll your own (RYO) tobacco.

RESULTS

Following increases in the specific tax payable on tobacco, we find evidence of overshifting across the price distribution for both FM and RYO. The rate of the overshift in tax increased the more expensive the products were. This was consistent for FM and RYO. Additionally, our findings suggest that the introduction of standardised packaging was not followed by changes in how the tobacco industry responded to tax increases.

CONCLUSIONS

Following the repeated introduction of increases in specific tobacco tax as well as standardised packaging, we show that the tobacco industry applies techniques to keep the cheapest tobacco cheaper relative to the more expensive products when passing on tax increases to smokers.

Firearm-related injuries and deaths in Ontario, Canada, 2002-2016: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Firearm-related injury is an important and preventable cause of death and disability. We describe the burden, baseline characteristics and regional rates of firearm-related injury and death in Ontario.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study using linked data from health administrative data sets held at ICES. We identified residents of Ontario of all ages who were injured or died as a result of a firearm discharge between Apr. 1, 2002, and Dec. 31, 2016. We included injuries classified as assault, unintentional, self-harm or undetermined intent secondary to handguns, rifles, shotguns and larger firearms. The primary outcome was the incidence of nonfatal and fatal injuries resulting in an emergency department visit, hospital admission or death. We also describe regional and temporal rates.

RESULTS

We identified 6483 firearm-related injuries (annualized injury rate 3.54 per 100 000 population), of which 2723 (42.3%) were fatal. Assault accounted for 40.2% (1494/3715) of nonfatal injuries and 25.5% (694/2723) of deaths. Young men, predominantly in urban neighbourhoods, within the lowest income quintile were overrepresented in this group. Injuries secondary to self-harm accounted for 68.0% (1366/2009) of injuries and occurred predominantly in older men living in rural Ontario across all income quintiles. The case fatality rate of injuries secondary to self-harm was 91.7%. Self-harm accounted for 1842 deaths (67.6%).

INTERPRETATION

We found that young urban men were most likely to be injured in firearm-related assaults and that more than two-thirds of self-harm-related injuries occurred in older rural-dwelling men, most of whom died from their injuries. This highlights a need for suicide-prevention strategies in rural areas targeted at men aged 45 or older.

A health policy analysis of the implementation of the National Tobacco Control Act in Nigeria

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have emerged as a public health issue of concern in Nigeria. The massive increase in tobacco use amongst different population groups is a common NCDs risk factor. To this effect, the National Tobacco Control Act (NTCA) was enacted following the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). This article conducts a health policy agenda-setting analysis of the NTCA using the Kingdon's multiple streams model and analyses its implementation using the Principal-Agent theory. The purposive and snowballing sampling methods were used to select and review relevant peer-review literature. Other data sources included gray literature, government reports, Non-Governmental Organization briefs and media resources. Though NTCA conforms to WHO FCTC, Nigeria only domesticated her obligation to this framework legislatively while the executive and administrative measures were found lacking. The challenges and gaps identified in the NTCA implementation include; revision of textual health warnings and lack of pictorial health warnings on cigarette packs, poor taxation, and the National Tobacco Control Commission's (NTCC) lack of regulatory autonomy, hence, the poor policy implementation reported in this article. To effectively implement NTCA, a review of textual warnings, enforcement of pictorial warnings, regulatory autonomy of the NTCC and review of the tobacco taxation are suggested to help in the prevention and control of NCDs.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the 2019 cigarette excise tax reform in the Philippines

In this past decade alone, the Philippines has made major strides in increasing the price of cigarettes. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of the most recent cigarette price increase of about 29% brought about by Republic Act (RA) 11346 in 2019. A static or a single cohort model was populated with locally-sourced inputs whenever possible. Public payer and societal perspectives were taken wherein the former only considered direct costs and tax revenue gained earmarked for the health sector while the latter adds indirect costs in the form of productivity losses. A 7% discount rate was applied. Increasing the price of cigarettes by about 29% was found to prevent about 1961 tobacco-related deaths which translate to about 34,571 disability adjusted life years (DALYs) saved. Savings incurred from hospitalizations prevented and additional excise tax revenues for health was about USD 367 Million. But when productivity losses averted due to the lives saved and the higher cost of hospitalizations were accounted for in the societal perspective, the excise tax reform yielded USD 415 Million net gain. It would save the public payer USD 10,612 per DALY averted while society at large stand to save USD 11,955 per DALY averted. Tax increases like RA 11346 yield significant revenue that can be used towards public health programs.

Revisiting the association between worldwide implementation of the MPOWER package and smoking prevalence, 2008-2017

Background

We revisited the association between progress in MPOWER implementation from 2008 to 2016 and smoking prevalence from 2009 to 2017 and offered an in-depth understanding of differential outcomes for various country groups.

Methods

We used data from six rounds of the WHO Reports on the Global Tobacco Epidemic and calculated a composite MPOWER Score for each country in each period. We categorised the countries in four initial conditions based on their tobacco control preparedness measured by MPOWER score in 2008 and smoking burden measured by age-adjusted adult daily smoking prevalence in 2006: (1) High MPOWER – high prevalence (HM-HP). (2) High MPOWER – low prevalence (HM-LP). (3) Low MPOWER – high prevalence (LM-HP). (4) Low MPOWER – low prevalence (LM-LP). We estimated the association of age-adjusted adult daily smoking prevalence with MPOWER Score and cigarette tax rates using two-way fixed-effects panel regression models including both year and country fixed effects.

Results

A unit increase of the MPOWER Score was associated with 0.39 and 0.50 percentage points decrease in adult daily smoking prevalence for HM-HP and HM-LP countries, respectively. When tax rate was controlled for separately from MPOWE, an increase in tax rate showed a negative association with daily smoking prevalence for HM-HP and LM-LP countries, while the MPOWE Score showed a negative association for all initial condition country groups except for LM-LP countries.

Conclusion

A decade after the introduction of the WHO MPOWER package, we observed that the countries with higher initial tobacco control preparedness and higher smoking burden were able to reduce the adult daily smoking prevalence significantly.

Impact of a comprehensive tobacco control policy package on acute myocardial infarction and stroke hospital admissions in Beijing, China: interrupted time series study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate a comprehensive tobacco control policy package on hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in a global city.

DESIGN

Interrupted time series study.

SETTING

Beijing, China.

POPULATION

31 707 AMI and 128 116 stroke hospital admissions recorded by the Beijing Medical Claim Data for Employees in 17.7 million residents from January 2013 to June 2017.

INTERVENTION

The policy package including all components of MPOWER has been implemented since June 2015.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The immediate change of AMI and stroke hospital admissions and the annual change in the secular trend.

RESULTS

There was a secular increase trend for the crude hospital admission rates of AMI and stroke during the observational period. After implementation of the policy, immediate reductions were observed in the hospital admissions for both AMI (-5.4%, 95% CI -10.0% to -0.5%) and stroke (-5.6%, 95% CI -7.8% to -3.3%). In addition, the secular increase trend for stroke was slowed down by -15.3% (95% CI -16.7% to -13.9%) annually. Compared with the hypothetical scenario where the policy had not taken place, an estimated 18 137 (26.7%) stroke hospital admissions had been averted during the 25 months of postpolicy period.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicated significant health benefits on cardiovascular morbidity after the Beijing tobacco control policy package, which highlighted the importance for a comprehensive tobacco control policy at the national level in China. Similar tobacco control policy which consists of all components of MPOWER is urgently needed in other areas, especially in settings with high tobacco consumption, to achieve greater public health gains.

Simulating future public health benefits of tobacco control interventions: a systematic review of models

BACKGROUND

To prioritise tobacco control interventions, simulating their health impacts is valuable. We undertook a systematic review of tobacco intervention simulation models to assess model structure and input variations that may render model outputs non-comparable.

METHODS

We applied a Medline search with keywords intersecting modelling and tobacco. Papers were limited to those modelling health outputs (eg, mortality, health-adjusted life years), and at least two of cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Data were extracted for each simulation model with ≥3 arising papers, including: model type, untimed or with time steps and trends in business-as-usual (BAU) tobacco prevalence and epidemiology.

RESULTS

Of 1911 papers, 186 met the inclusion criteria, including 13 eligible simulation models. The SimSmoke model had the largest number of publications (n=46), followed by Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes (n=12) and Tobacco Policy Model (n=10). Two of 13 models only estimated deaths averted, 1 had no time steps, 5 had no future trends in BAU tobacco prevalence, 9 had no future trends in BAU disease epidemiology and 7 had no time lags from quitting tobacco to reversal of health harm.

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable heterogeneity exists in simulation models, making outputs substantively non-comparable between models. Ranking of interventions by one model may be valid. However, this may not be true if, for example, interventions that differentially affect age groups (eg, a tobacco-free generation policy vs increased cessation among adults) do not account for plausible future trends. Greater standardisation of model structures and outputs will allow comparison across models and countries, and for comparisons of the impact of tobacco control interventions with other preventive interventions.

Impact of tobacco tax increases and industry pricing on smoking behaviours and inequalities: a mixed-methods study

Background

Increasing tobacco prices through taxation is very effective for reducing smoking prevalence and inequalities. For optimum effect, understanding how the tobacco industry and smokers respond is essential. Tobacco taxation changes occurred in the UK over the study period, including annual increases, a shift in structure from ad valorem to specific taxation and relatively higher increases on roll-your-own tobacco than on factory-made cigarettes.

Objectives

Understanding tobacco industry pricing strategies in response to tax changes and the impact of tax on smokers’ behaviour, including tax evasion and avoidance, as well as the effect on smoking inequalities. Synthesising findings to inform how taxation can be improved as a public health intervention.

Design

Qualitative analysis and evidence synthesis (commercial and Nielsen data) and longitudinal and aggregate cross-sectional analyses (International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project data).

Setting

The UK, from 2002 to 2016.

Data sources and participants

Data were from the tobacco industry commercial literature and retail tobacco sales data (Nielsen, New York, NY, USA). Participants were a longitudinal cohort (with replenishment) of smokers and ex-smokers from 10 surveys of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project (around 1500 participants per survey).

Main outcome measures

(1) Tobacco industry pricing strategies, (2) sales volumes and prices by segments over time and (3) smokers’ behaviours, including products purchased, sources, brands, consumption, quit attempts, success and sociodemographic differences.

Review methods

Tobacco industry commercial literature was searched for mentions of tobacco products and price segments, with 517 articles extracted.

Results

The tobacco industry increased prices on top of tax increases (overshifting), particularly on premium products, and, recently, the tobacco industry overshifted more on cheap roll-your-own tobacco than on factory-made cigarettes. Increasingly, price rises were from industry revenue generation rather than tax. The tobacco industry raised prices gradually to soften impact; this was less possible with larger tax increases. Budget measures to reduce cheap product availability failed due to new cheap factory-made products, price marking and small packs. In 2014, smokers could buy factory-made (roll-your-own tobacco) cigarettes at real prices similar to 2002. Exclusive roll-your-own tobacco and mixed factory-made cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco use increased, whereas exclusive factory-made cigarette use decreased, alongside increased cheap product use, rather than quitting. Quitting behaviours were associated with higher taxes. Smokers consumed fewer factory-made cigarettes and reduced roll-your-own tobacco weight over time. Apparent illicit purchasing did not increase. Disadvantaged and dependent smokers struggled with tobacco affordability and were more likely to smoke cheaper products, but disadvantage did not affect quit success.

Limitations

Different for each data set; triangulation increased confidence.

Conclusions

The tobacco industry overshifted taxes and increased revenues, even when tax increases were high. Therefore, tobacco taxes can be further increased to reduce price differentials and recoup public health costs. Government strategies on illicit tobacco appear effective. Large, sudden tax increases would reduce the industry’s ability to manipulate prices, decrease affordability and increase quitting behaviours. More disadvantaged, and dependent, smokers need more help with quitting.

Future work

Assessing the impact of tax changes made since 2014; changing how tax changes are introduced (e.g. sudden intermittent or smaller continuous); and tax changes on tobacco initiation.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 8, No. 6. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Heated Tobacco Products Have Reached Younger or More Affluent People in Japan

Background

The trend of the diffusion of heated tobacco products (HTPs) is a great concern because HTPs have become available worldwide. This study examined the sociodemographic characteristics of HTPs users in Japan, where HTPs were first launched.

Methods

This cross-sectional study used data from an online survey conducted in 2017. A total of 4,926 participants, aged 20–69 years, were included. The dependent variable was the type of tobacco products used. The independent variables were age and equivalent income. Two analyses estimated the odds ratios (ORs) for 1) being smokers compared to “non-smokers,” and 2) being “HTP smokers” compared to “only combustible cigarette smokers.” Analyses were stratified by sex. Educational attainment and occupation were also used in the sensitivity analyses.

Results

The percentages of “non-smokers,” “only combustible cigarette smokers,” and “HTP smokers” were 82.8%, 14.2%, and 3.0%, respectively. When compared to the oldest participants (aged 60–69), the youngest participants (aged 20–29) tended to be “HTP smokers” (OR 7.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.09–20.22 for men and OR 9.28; 95% CI, 2.14–40.28 for women). Compared to participants with the lowest incomes (<2 million), those with the highest incomes (≥4 million) tended to use HTPs (OR 2.93; 95% CI, 1.56–5.49 in men and OR 1.82; 95% CI, 0.73–4.54 in women). These trends were consistent when analyses included only smokers. There were consistent results in other SES measurements, including educational attainment and occupation.

Conclusions

Younger or more affluent people tended to use HTPs, although smoking rates among these populations were generally lower. New tobacco control efforts are required.

Standardised packaging, minimum excise tax, and RYO focussed tax rise implications for UK tobacco pricing

BACKGROUND

Standardised packaging for factory made (FM) and roll your own (RYO) tobacco was fully implemented in the UK in May 2017. Around the same time, several changes to the tax system were applied (a Minimum Excise Tax (MET) for FM products and tax increases weighted towards RYO products). The tobacco industry claims that standardised packaging will lower prices (a disincentive for quitting) by commoditising the product, yet had itself taken advantage of the previous tax regime to achieve large profits from premium brands while also keeping some products' prices relatively low. Here we evaluate the impact of standardised packaging, the MET and the RYO focussed tax changes on price and industry profitability.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Nielsen electronic point of sale (EPOS) data (May 2015 to April 2018) were used to calculate real (inflation adjusted) monthly price per stick overall, by cigarette type (FM and RYO) and by seven market segments. Trend estimation, using additive mixed models, assessed weighted average price (weighted by volume of sales) and tobacco industry net revenue changes. The beginning and end of the data series were compared in terms of: (a) average monthly price growth, (b) average monthly net revenue growth, and (c) undershifting and overshifting patterns after tax changes. FM and RYO real prices changed little over the 3-year period-overall prices rose by about 1p per stick. There was no evidence of commoditisation with prices of all FM segments (but not RYO) rising faster after the implementation of standardised packaging than immediately beforehand. The prices of the cheapest FM brands rose with the implementation of the MET. RYO price increases did not close the gap to FM pricing levels despite RYO focussed tax increases. Tax changes following the implementation of standardised packaging and the MET were more widely and quickly passed on to smokers in the form of higher prices than the tax change pre-implementation. The main limitations are first that because we do not know the exact mechanism by which Nielsen scales up sample data to provide UK estimates, we could only use data for a set three year period during which the same adjustments are made. Second, the tax and standardised packaging events were sometimes too close in time to separate their consequences statistically. Third, tobacco prices may also be affected by external factors such as changes in smokers' disposable income or availability of electronic nicotine delivery systems.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no long-term lowering of tobacco prices after the implementation of standardised packaging as predicted by the industry. The introduction of the MET was successful in increasing the price of the cheapest FM cigarettes and narrowing the price gap between FM brands. The RYO tax increases were, however, insufficient to narrow the price gap between RYO and FM. Overall, undershifting became less extensive indicating that tobacco industry manipulation of the tax system which had previously kept cheap products available had declined. This suggests that standardised packaging and a MET will likely contribute to further declines in UK tobacco use.

The Impact of Implementing Tobacco Control Policies: The 2017 Tobacco Control Policy Scorecard

The Tobacco Control Scorecard, published in 2004, presented estimates of the effectiveness of different policies on smoking rates. Since its publication, new evidence has emerged. We update the Scorecard to include recent studies of demand-reducing tobacco policies for high-income countries. We include cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, media campaigns, comprehensive tobacco control programs, marketing bans, health warnings, and cessation treatment policies. To update the 2004 Scorecard, a narrative review was conducted on reviews and studies published after 2000, with additional focus on 3 policies in which previous evidence was limited: tobacco control programs, graphic health warnings, and marketing bans. We consider evaluation studies that measured the effects of policies on smoking behaviors. Based on these findings, we derive estimates of short-term and long-term policy effect sizes. Cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, marketing restrictions, and comprehensive tobacco control programs are each found to play important roles in reducing smoking prevalence. Cessation treatment policies and graphic health warnings also reduce smoking and, when combined with policies that increase quit attempts, can improve quit success. The effect sizes are broadly consistent with those previously reported for the 2004 Scorecard but now reflect the larger evidence base evaluating the impact of health warnings and advertising restrictions.

The contribution of a 'whole of government' smoke-free policy on the island of St Helena

Under its Health Promotion Strategic Framework 2018–19 the St Helena Government prioritised action to address smoking and obesity to reduce a high non-communicable disease burden. The first tobacco control measure was a policy, ‘Smoke-Free Government’ (SFG), to create smoke-free public outdoor and indoor sites across all sites and services for staff and public users, abolish ‘official’ staff ‘smoking breaks’, and establish and promote community-wide cessation support. This paper assesses the perceived acceptability and preliminary impact of SFG in St Helena 2018–19. An online survey of government staff was undertaken 6 months post-SFG implementation to obtain insight into perceived impact, implementation, and acceptability. A population-wide health survey provided smoking prevalence and quit data prior to, and 11 months post-implementation. A majority of staff believed the policy contributed to reducing smoking, was generally observed, accepted, and entailed one or more positive effects, including reduced second-hand smoke exposure, increased quit attempts, and reduced disruption from ‘smoke-breaks’. Recommendations were consistent enforcement and expanded quit support. Population data for the SFG period indicated that smoking, and particularly daily smoking declined, quit intentions increased, and quit attempts almost doubled. The SFG policy appears to have contributed positively towards stronger tobacco control in St Helena in 2018–19.

Early assessment of China's 2015 tobacco tax increase

In 2015, the Chinese government raised tobacco excise tax for the first time since 2009. Changing from previous practice, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration raised its cigarette prices at the same time. We assessed the early impact of the 2015 tax increase on cigarette prices, sales volumes, tax revenue generation and the potential effect on prevalence of smoking in China. Between 2014 and 2016, the retail price of cigarettes increased on average by 11%, with the cheapest category of cigarette brands increasing by 20%. The average proportion of tax in the price of cigarettes rose from 51.7% to 55.7%. Annual cigarette sales decreased by 7.8%, from 127 to 117 billion packs. The increase in cigarette prices could be associated with a 0.2% to 0.6% decrease in the proportion of adults smoking, representing between 2.2 and 6.5 million fewer smokers. Tax revenues from cigarettes increased by 14%, from 740 to 842 billion Chinese yuan between 2014 and 2016, reflecting an extra 101 billion Chinese yuan in tax revenues for the government. The 2015 tax increase shows that tobacco taxation can provide measurable benefits to both public health and finance in China. The experience also highlights the potential for tobacco taxation to contribute to China's broader development targets, including the sustainable development goals and Healthy China 2030. Looking forward, this link to development can be facilitated through multisectoral research and dialogue to develop consistent cross-sectoral objectives for tobacco tax policy design and implementation.

Estimates of effectiveness and reach for 'return on investment' modelling of smoking cessation interventions using data from England

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Estimating 'return on investment' (ROI) from smoking cessation interventions requires reach and effectiveness parameters for interventions for use in economic models such as the EQUIPT ROI tool (http://roi.equipt.eu). This paper describes the derivation of these parameter estimates for England that can be adapted to create ROI models for use by other countries.

METHODS

Estimates were derived for interventions in terms of their reach and effectiveness in: (1) promoting quit attempts and (2) improving the success of quit attempts (abstinence for at least 12 months). The sources were systematic reviews of efficacy supplemented by individual effectiveness evaluations and national surveys.

FINDINGS

Quit attempt rates were estimated to be increased by the following percentages (with reach in parentheses): 20% by tax increases raising the cost of smoking 5% above the cost of living index (100%); 10% by enforced comprehensive indoor public smoking bans (100%); 3% by mass media campaigns achieving 400 gross rating points (100%); 40% by brief opportunistic physician advice (21%); and 110% by use of a licensed nicotine product to reduce cigarette consumption (12%). Quit success rates were estimated to be increased by the following ratios: 60% by single-form nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) (5%); 114% by NRT patch plus a faster-acting NRT (2%);124% by prescribed varenicline (5%); 60% by bupropion (1%); 100% by nortriptyline (0%), 10) 298% by cytisine (0%); 40% by individual face-to-face behavioural support (2%); 37% by telephone support (0.5%); 88% by group behavioural support (1%); 63% by text messaging (0.5%); and 19% by printed self-help materials (1%). There was insufficient evidence to obtain reliable, country-specific estimates for interventions such as websites, smartphone applications and e-cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

Tax increases, indoor smoking bans, brief opportunistic physician advice and use of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) for smoking reduction can all increase population quit attempt rates. Quit success rates can be increased by provision of NRT, varenicline, bupropion, nortriptyline, cytisine and behavioural support delivered through a variety of modalities. Parameter estimates for the effectiveness and reach of these interventions can contribute to return on investment estimates in support of national or regional policy decisions.

Epidemiological accountability: philanthropists, global health and the audit of saving lives

There have been concerns about the recent private turn and re-emergence of philanthropies in world health, with many worrying about philanthropies' perceived lack of transparency and accountability. In contrast, I argue that while the private turn might have led to a decline in democratic or public accountability, it did not bring an end to all forms of accountability. Specifically, I suggest that philanthropists' involvement in global health has led to the spread of another, new form of accountability: epidemiological accountability. The latter is a combination of two regimes of expertise and practices hitherto kept separate: audit and epidemiology. To substantiate this argument, I draw on my research on the Bloomberg Initiative - a global effort to reduce tobacco use spearheaded by the Bloomberg and Gates foundations.

The effect of MPOWER scores on cigarette smoking prevalence and consumption

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the MPOWER package to support policy implementation under the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). This study examined the effect of MPOWER policies on smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in a global context.

METHODS

The MPOWER composite score was constructed by adding up the six MPOWER scores for each country and survey year 2007-2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014, with a possible range between 6 (1 in each of the six score) and 29 (4 in M score and 5 in POWER scores). MPOWER composite scores that measured policy implementation were then linked to cigarette smoking prevalence and consumption data from Euromonitor International. Fractional logit and OLS regressions were employed to examine the effect of the composite MPOWER score on adult smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption, respectively.

RESULTS

Results indicate that a 1-unit increase in the composite score reduces smoking prevalence by 0.2 percentage points (p<0.05) among adults and 0.3 percentage points (p<0.01) among adult males; and a reduction of 23 sticks of cigarette (1 pack of cigarettes) in cigarette consumption per capita per year. At this rate, if countries had implemented the MPOWER package to the highest levels during 2007-2014, they would have experienced a reduction in smoking prevalence of 7.26% among adults and 7.87% among adult males and a reduction of 13.80% in cigarette consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

MPOWER policies were effective in reducing cigarette smoking among adults. Parties should continue to implement MPOWER policies that have been recommended by the WHO FCTC to curb tobacco epidemic.

Food Addiction, High-Glycemic-Index Carbohydrates, and Obesity

BACKGROUND

Treatment success in obesity remains low, and recently food addiction has been delineated as an underlying etiologic factor with therapeutic relevance. Specifically, current treatment focuses on reduced food intake and increase of physical activity, whereas interventions for addiction encompass behavioral therapy, abstinence, and environmental interventions such as taxation, restrictions on advertising, and regulation of school menus.

CONTENT

Here, we reviewed the pertinent literature on food addiction with a specific focus on the role of high-glycemic-index carbohydrates in triggering addictive symptoms. Three lines of evidence support the concept of food addiction: (a) behavioral responses to certain foods are similar to substances of abuse; (b) food intake regulation and addiction rely on similar neurobiological circuits; (c) individuals suffering from obesity or addiction show similar neurochemical- and brain activation patterns.High-glycemic-index carbohydrates elicit a rapid shift in blood glucose and insulin levels, akin to the pharmacokinetics of addictive substances. Similar to drugs of abuse, glucose and insulin signal to the mesolimbic system to modify dopamine concentration. Sugar elicits addiction-like craving, and self-reported problem foods are rich in high-glycemic-index carbohydrates. These properties make high-glycemic-index carbohydrates plausible triggers for food addiction.

SUMMARY

We argue that food addiction is a plausible etiological factor contributing to the heterogeneous condition and phenotype of obesity. In at least a subset of vulnerable individuals, high-glycemic-index carbohydrates trigger addiction-like neurochemical and behavioral responses.

Tobacco industry strategies undermine government tax policy: evidence from commercial data

OBJECTIVE

Taxation equitably reduces smoking, the leading cause of health inequalities. The tobacco industry (TI) can, however, undermine the public health gains realised from tobacco taxation through its pricing strategies. This study aims to examine contemporary TI pricing strategies in the UK and implications for tobacco tax policy.

DESIGN

Review of commercial literature and longitudinal analysis of tobacco sales and price data.

SETTING

A high-income country with comprehensive tobacco control policies and high tobacco taxes (UK).

PARTICIPANTS

2009 to 2015 Nielsen Scantrak electronic point of sale systems data.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Tobacco segmentation; monthly prices, sales volumes of and net revenue from roll-your-own (RYO) and factory-made (FM) cigarettes by segment; use of price-marking and pack sizes.

RESULTS

The literature review and sales data concurred that both RYO and FM cigarettes were segmented by price. Despite regular tax increases, average real prices for the cheapest FM and RYO segments remained steady from 2013 while volumes grew. Low prices were maintained through reductions in the size of packs and price-marking. Each year, at the point the budget is implemented, the TI drops its revenue by up to 18 pence per pack, absorbing the tax increases (undershifting). Undershifting is most marked for the cheapest segments.

CONCLUSIONS

The TI currently uses a variety of strategies to keep tobacco cheap. The implementation of standardised packaging will prevent small pack sizes and price-marking but further changes in tax policy are needed to minimise the TI's attempts to prevent sudden price increases.

Behavioral change in response to a statewide tobacco tax increase and differences across socioeconomic status

BACKGROUND

Tobacco use is a leading behavioral risk factor for morbidity and mortality, and the tobacco epidemic disproportionately affects low-socioeconomic status (SES) populations. Taxation is effective for reducing cigarette use, and it is an effective population-based policy for reducing SES-related tobacco disparities. However, progress in implementing cigarette excise taxes has stalled across the United States, and there is a dearth of research on the full spectrum of behavioral shifts that result from taxes, particularly among low-SES populations. This project documents the impact of Minnesota's $1.75 cigarette tax increase implemented in 2013.

METHODS

Data come from the 2014 Minnesota Adult Tobacco Survey. Descriptive analyses and Latent Class Analysis (LCA) were used to provide a typology of the tax impact.

RESULTS

From the LCA, six classes were identified, and 42% of respondents were classified as reporting action-oriented behavioral change related to the tax-8% reported sustained smoking abstinence. We found differential behavior change across levels of SES. Low-SES and medium/high-SES individuals were equally likely to report complete tobacco cessation, but the prevalence of daily smokers who reported action-oriented behavior without sustained cessation was nearly double for low-SES individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Smokers report a range of behavioral changes in response to cigarette taxes, with differences across SES. The majority of smokers, and particularly low-SES smokers, report behavioral steps toward quitting or achieving sustained tobacco cessation in response to cigarette taxes. Complementary population-based programs geared toward assisting individuals, especially low-SES individuals, to achieve continuous tobacco cessation could increase the reach and effectiveness of cigarette taxes.

The effects of a rise in cigarette price on cigarette consumption, tobacco taxation revenues, and of smoking-related deaths in 28 EU countries-- applying threshold regression modelling

BACKGROUND

European Union public healthcare expenditure on treating smoking and attributable diseases is estimated at over €25bn annually. The reduction of tobacco consumption has thus become one of the major social policies of the EU. This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and smoking-caused deaths in 28 EU countries.

METHODS

Employing panel data for the years 2005 to 2014 from Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we used income as a threshold variable and applied threshold regression modelling to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations.

RESULTS

The results showed that there was an income threshold effect on cigarette prices in the 28 EU countries that had a gross national income (GNI) per capita lower than US$5418, with a maximum cigarette price elasticity of -1.227. The results of the simulated analysis showed that a rise of 10% in cigarette price would significantly reduce cigarette consumption as well the total death toll caused by smoking in all the observed countries, but would be most effective in Bulgaria and Romania, followed by Latvia and Poland. Additionally, an increase in the number of MPOWER tobacco control policies at the highest level of achievment would help reduce cigarette consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

It is recommended that all EU countries levy higher tobacco taxes to increase cigarette prices, and thus in effect reduce cigarette consumption. The subsequent increase in tobacco tax revenues would be instrumental in covering expenditures related to tobacco prevention and control programs.

Cost-effectiveness of a smokeless tobacco control mass media campaign in India

BACKGROUND

Tobacco control mass media campaigns are cost-effective in reducing tobacco consumption in high-income countries, but similar evidence from low-income countries is limited. An evaluation of a 2009 smokeless tobacco control mass media campaign in India provided an opportunity to test its cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

Campaign evaluation data from a nationally representative household survey of 2898 smokeless tobacco users were compared with campaign costs in a standard cost-effectiveness methodology. Costs and effects of the Surgeon campaign were compared with the status quo to calculate the cost per campaign-attributable benefit, including quit attempts, permanent quits and tobacco-related deaths averted. Sensitivity analyses at varied CIs and tobacco-related mortality risk were conducted.

RESULTS

The Surgeon campaign was found to be highly cost-effective. It successfully generated 17 259 148 additional quit attempts, 431 479 permanent quits and 120 814 deaths averted. The cost per benefit was US$0.06 per quit attempt, US$2.6 per permanent quit and US$9.2 per death averted. The campaign continued to be cost-effective in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that tobacco control mass media campaigns can be cost-effective and economically justified in low-income and middle-income countries. It holds significant policy implications, calling for sustained investment in evidence-based mass media campaigns as part of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy.

Assessing Health Impacts of Pictorial Health Warning Labels on Cigarette Packs in Korea Using DYNAMO-HIA

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to predict the 10-year impacts of the introduction of pictorial warning labels (PWLs) on cigarette packaging in 2016 in Korea for adults using DYNAMO-HIA.

METHODS

In total, four scenarios were constructed to better understand the potential health impacts of PWLs: two for PWLs and the other two for a hypothetical cigarette tax increase. In both policies, an optimistic and a conservative scenario were constructed. The reference scenario assumed the 2015 smoking rate would remain the same. Demographic data and epidemiological data were obtained from various sources. Differences in the predicted smoking prevalence and prevalence, incidence, and mortality from diseases were compared between the reference scenario and the four policy scenarios.

RESULTS

It was predicted that the optimistic PWLs scenario (PWO) would lower the smoking rate by 4.79% in males and 0.66% in females compared to the reference scenario in 2017. However, the impact on the reduction of the smoking rate was expected to diminish over time. PWO will prevent 85 238 cases of diabetes, 67 948 of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 31 526 of ischemic heart disease, 21 036 of lung cancer, and 3972 prevalent cases of oral cancer in total over the 10-year span due to the reductions in smoking prevalence. The impacts of PWO are expected to be between the impact of the optimistic and the conservative cigarette tax increase scenarios. The results were sensitive to the transition probability of smoking status.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of PWLs in 2016 in Korea is expected reduce smoking prevalence and disease cases for the next 10 years, but regular replacements of PWLs are needed for persistent impacts.

The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013

OBJECTIVES

This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries.

METHODS

Using panel data from the 1999-2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations.

RESULTS

Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia.

CONCLUSIONS

Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.

Smoking Status and the Five-Factor Model of Personality: Results of a Cross-Sectional Study Conducted in Poland

Tobacco smoking is the single most important modifiable factor in increased morbidity and premature mortality. Numerous factors—including genetics, personality, and environment—affect the development and persistence of tobacco addiction, and knowledge regarding these factors could improve smoking cessation rates. This study compared personality traits between never, former, and current smokers, using the Five-Factor Model of Personality in a country with a turbulent smoking reduction process.: In this cross-sectional study, 909 Polish adults completed the Revised Neuroticism-Extraversion-Openness Personality Inventory. Our results showed that current smokers’ scores for extraversion, one of the five global dimensions of personality, were higher relative to never smokers. Neuroticism, openness to experience, agreeableness, and conscientiousness did not differ significantly according to smoking status. Facet analysis, which described each dimension in detail, showed that current smokers’ activity and excitement seeking (facets of extraversion) scores were higher relative to those of never and former smokers. In turn, current smokers’ dutifulness and deliberation (facets of conscientiousness) scores were lower than those found in former and never smokers. Never smokers scored the highest in self-consciousness (a facet of neuroticism) and compliance (a component of agreeableness). The study conducted among Polish individuals showed variation in personality traits according to their smoking status; however, this variation differed from that reported in countries in which efforts to reduce smoking had begun earlier relative to Poland. Knowledge regarding personality traits could be useful in designing smoking prevention and cessation programs tailored to individuals’ needs.

Comparison of Tobacco Control Programs Worldwide: A Quantitative Analysis of the 2015 World Health Organization MPOWER Report

Background:

A report of the activities of countries worldwide for six main policies to control tobacco use is published once every 2 years by the World Health Organization (WHO). Our objective was to perform a quantitative analysis for it in countries and regions to make a simple view of its programs.

Methods:

This was a cross-sectional study by filling out a validated checklist from the 2015 WHO Report (MPOWER). All ten MPOWER measures got scores and were entered independently by two individuals and a third party compared the values.

Results:

Fifteen countries, which acquired the highest scores (85% of total 37), included Panama and Turkey with 35, Brazil and Uruguay with 34, Ireland, United Kingdom, Iran, Brunei, Argentina, and Costa Rica with 33, and Australia, Nepal, Thailand, Canada, and Mauritius with 32 points.

Conclusions:

Comparison of scores of different countries in this respect can be beneficial since it creates a challenge for the health policymakers to find weakness of the tobacco control programs to work on it.

Seven years of progress in tobacco control: an evaluation of the effect of nations meeting the highest level MPOWER measures between 2007 and 2014

OBJECTIVE

Since WHO released the package of six MPOWER measures to assist nations with implementing the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC), 88 countries adopted at least one highest level MPOWER measure. We estimated the subsequent reduction in smoking-related deaths from all new highest level measures adopted between 2007 and 2014.

METHODS

Policy effect sizes based on previously validated SimSmoke models were applied to the number of smokers in each nation to determine the reduction in the number of smokers from policy adoption. On the basis of research that half of all smokers die from smoking, we derived the smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) averted of those smokers alive today.

FINDINGS

In total, 88 countries adopted at least one highest level MPOWER policy between 2007 and 2014, resulting in almost 22 million fewer projected SADs. The largest number of future SADs averted was due to increased cigarette taxes (7.0 million), followed by comprehensive smoke-free laws (5.4 million), large graphic health warnings (4.1 million), comprehensive marketing bans (3.8 million) and comprehensive cessation interventions (1.5 million).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate the immense public health impact of tobacco control policies adopted globally since the WHO-FCTC and highlight the importance of more countries adopting highest level MPOWER measures to reduce the global burden of tobacco use. Substantial additional progress could be made, especially if heavily populated nations with high smoking prevalence were to reach highest level MPOWER measures.

Global tobacco prevention and control in relation to a cardiovascular health promotion and disease prevention framework: A narrative review

The purpose of this review is to emphasize the role of tobacco prevention and control in cardiovascular health (CVH) promotion and cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, including the importance of these endpoints for measuring the full impact of tobacco-related policies, programs, and practices. In this review, we describe an overview of tobacco control interventions that have led to substantial declines in tobacco use and the relationship between these declines with CVH and CVD. We review interventions that have had success in high-income countries (HICs) as well as those that are gaining traction in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We emphasize the challenges to comprehensive tobacco prevention and control strategies faced by LMICs, and highlight the special role of cardiovascular health professionals in achieving CVH promotion and CVD prevention endpoints through tobacco control. Tobacco prevention and control strategies have a strong scientific basis, yet a distinct gap remains between this evidence and implementation of tobacco control policies, particularly in LMICs. Health professionals can contribute to tobacco control efforts, especially through patient-level clinical interventions, when supported by a health care system and government that recognize and support tobacco control as a critical strategy for CVH promotion and CVD prevention. Understanding, supporting, and applying current and evolving policies, programs, and practices in tobacco prevention and control is the province of all health professionals, especially those concerned with CVH promotion and CVD prevention. A new tobacco control roadmap from the World Heart Federation provides a strong impetus to the needed interdisciplinary collaboration.

Tobacco Control Progress in Low and Middle Income Countries in Comparison to High Income Countries

The study aimed to describe worldwide levels and trends of tobacco control policy by comparing low and middle income countries with other income categories from 2007 to 2014 and to analyze the corresponding relation to recent changes in smoking prevalence. Policy measure data representing years 2007 to 2014 were collected from all available World Health Organization (WHO) reports on the global tobacco epidemic. Corresponding policy percentage scores (PS) were calculated based on MPOWER measures. Age-standardized smoking prevalence data for years 2010 and 2015 were collected from the WHO Global Health Observatory Data Repository. Trends of PS were analysed with respect to WHO region and OECD country income category. Scatter plots and regression analysis were used to depict the relationship between tobacco control policy of 2010 and change in smoking prevalence between 2015 and 2010 by sex and income category. Combined PS for all countries increased significantly from 47% in 2007 to 61% by 2014 (p < 0.001). When grouped by income category and region, policies were strengthened in all categories, albeit with varying progression. By 2014, tobacco control policy legislation had reached 45% in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), 59% in Low Middle Income Countries (LMICs), 66% in Upper Middle Income Countries (UMICs) and 70% in High Income Countries (HICs). Overall, there was a negative relationship between higher policy scores and change in smoking prevalence. Although policy strengthening had been conducted between 2007 and 2014, room for considerable global improvement remains, particularly in LDCs.

Population Attributable and Preventable Fractions: Cancer Risk Factor Surveillance, and Cancer Policy Projection

The proportions of new cancer cases and deaths that are caused by exposure to risk factors and that could be prevented are key statistics for public health policy and planning. This paper summarizes the methodologies for estimating, challenges in the analysis of, and utility of, population attributable and preventable fractions for cancers caused by major risk factors such as tobacco smoking, dietary factors, high body fat, physical inactivity, alcohol consumption, infectious agents, occupational exposure, air pollution, sun exposure, and insufficient breastfeeding. For population attributable and preventable fractions, evidence of a causal relationship between a risk factor and cancer, outcome (such as incidence and mortality), exposure distribution, relative risk, theoretical-minimum-risk, and counterfactual scenarios need to be clearly defined and congruent. Despite limitations of the methodology and the data used for estimations, the population attributable and preventable fractions are a useful tool for public health policy and planning.

Sick Populations and Sick Subpopulations: Reducing Disparities in Cardiovascular Disease Between Blacks and Whites in the United States

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) death rates are much higher in blacks than whites in the United States. It is unclear how CVD risk and events are distributed among blacks versus whites and how interventions reduce racial disparities.

METHODS

We developed risk models for fatal and for fatal and nonfatal CVD using 8 cohorts in the United States. We used 6154 adults who were 50 to 69 years of age in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999 to 2012 to estimate the distributions of risk and events in blacks and whites. We estimated the total and disparity impacts of a range of population-wide, targeted, and risk-based interventions on 10-year CVD risks and event rates.

RESULTS

Twenty-five percent (95% confidence interval [CI], 22-28) of black men and 12% (95% CI, 10-14) of black women were at ≥6.67% risk of fatal CVD (almost equivalent to 20% risk of fatal or nonfatal CVD) compared with 10% (95% CI, 8-12) of white men and 3% (95% CI, 2-4) of white women. These high-risk individuals accounted for 55% (95% CI, 49-59) of CVD deaths among black men and 42% (95% CI, 35-46) in black women compared with 30% (95% CI, 24-35) in white men and 18% (95% CI, 13-22) in white women. We estimated that an intervention that treated multiple risk factors in high-risk individuals could reduce black-white difference in CVD death rate from 1659 to 1244 per 100 000 in men and from 1320 to 897 in women. Rates of fatal and nonfatal CVD were generally similar between black and white men. In women, a larger proportion of women were at ≥7.5% risk of CVD (30% versus 19% in whites), and an intervention that targeted multiple risk factors among this group was estimated to reduce black-white differences in CVD rates from 1688 to 1197 per 100 000.

CONCLUSIONS

A substantially larger proportion of blacks have a high risk of fatal CVD and bear a large share of CVD deaths. A risk-based intervention that reduces multiple risk factors could substantially reduce overall CVD rates and racial disparities in CVD death rates.

Application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to four Eastern Mediterranean countries

INTRODUCTION

The WHO established the MPOWER policy package to boost the implementation of the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) in 2008 and to provide practical guidance on policies effective at reducing smoking rates. An easily applied Abridged SimSmoke was developed to help countries gauge the effect of these policies using data from the WHO MPOWER/WHO Report (MPOWER Report) and is applied to four Eastern Mediterranean countries.

METHODS

The number of smokers in a country is calculated using the country's smoking prevalence and population. Policy effect sizes, based on previously validated SimSmoke models, are applied to the smoker populations to determine the reduction in the number of smokers resulting from implementing policies. The number of smoking-attributable deaths is derived based on findings that half of those smokers alive today will die from smoking.

RESULTS

Within 40 years, implementing the complete set of MPOWER policies is projected to reduce smoking prevalence by 29% (range 15%, 41%) and avert almost 1 (range 0.5, 1.4) million deaths in Egypt, reduce smoking prevalence by 52% (range 36%, 66%) and avert 156 000 (106 000, 196 000) deaths in Lebanon, reduce smoking prevalence by 56% (range 40%, 69%) and avert 3.5 (range 2.5, 4.3) million deaths in Pakistan, and reduce smoking prevalence by 37% (range 21%, 51%) and avert 245 000 (range 138 000, 334 000) deaths in Tunisia.

CONCLUSIONS

The Abridged SimSmoke model has been used to show the number of deaths from smoking and how MPOWER policies can be used to reach the WHO non-communicable deaths voluntary target for cigarette use reduction in four countries.

The Influence of Smoking on Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Diabetic and Non-Diabetic Patients

BACKGROUND

Both smoking and diabetes can increase the risk and influence the manifestations and outcomes of tuberculosis (TB). It is not clear whether the influence of smoking on pulmonary TB differs between non-diabetic and diabetic patients. Herein, we assessed the manifestations and outcomes of TB in relation to smoking in both diabetic and non-diabetic TB patients.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

All diabetic culture-positive pulmonary TB patients notified from 2005-2010 at three teaching hospitals in Taiwan were enrolled. A culture-positive pulmonary TB patient without DM who was notified to the health authority immediately prior to each diabetic TB patient was selected for comparison. The 972 patients in this study cohort included 365 (37.6%) non-diabetic non-smokers, 149 (15.3%) non-diabetic smokers, 284 (29.2%) diabetic non-smokers, and 174 (17.9%) diabetic smokers. The adjusted relative risk of a pretreatment positive smear for a smoker compared with a non-smoker was 2.19 (95% CI 1.38-3.47) in non-diabetic patients and 2.23 (95% CI 1.29-3.87) in diabetic culture-positive pulmonary TB patients. The adjusted relative risk for a positive smear among diabetic smokers was 5.61 (95% CI 3.35-9.41) compared with non-diabetic non-smokers. Smoking was significantly associated with an increased frequency of bilateral lung parenchyma involvement (AdjOR 1.84, 95% CI 1.16-2.93), far-advanced pulmonary TB (AdjOR 1.91, 95% CI 1.04-3.50), cavitary lesions (AdjOR 2.03, 95% CI 1.29-3.20), and unfavorable outcomes of TB (AdjOR 2.35, 95% CI 1.02-5.41) in non-diabetic patients. However, smoking was not associated with cavitary lung parenchyma lesions regarding the location, number or size of the cavity in diabetic TB patients.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Smoking and diabetes have joint effects on a pretreatment positive smear. Diabetic smokers had more than a 5-fold increased risk of a pretreatment positive smear than did non-diabetic non-smokers, indicating remarkable joint effects of diabetes and smoking on the risk of TB transmission.

Clearing the smoke around the TB-HIV syndemic: smoking as a critical issue for TB and HIV treatment and care

The collision of the tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemics has been described as a 'syndemic' due to the synergistic impact on the burden of both diseases. This paper explains the urgent need for practitioners and policy makers to address a third epidemic that exacerbates TB, HIV and TB-HIV. Tobacco use is the leading cause of preventable death worldwide. Smoking is more prevalent among persons diagnosed with TB or HIV. Smoking is associated with tuberculous infection, TB disease and poorer anti-tuberculosis treatment outcomes. It is also associated with an increased risk of smoking-related diseases among people living with HIV, and smoking may also inhibit the effectiveness of life-saving ART. In this paper, we propose integrating into TB and HIV programmes evidence-based strategies from the 'MPOWER' package recommended by the World Health Organization's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Specific actions that can be readily incorporated into current practice are recommended to improve TB and HIV outcomes and care, and reduce the unnecessary burden of death and disease due to smoking.