Avian influenza overview March - June 2022

Rapid mortality in captive bush dogs (Speothos venaticus) caused by influenza A of avian origin (H5N1) at a wildlife collection in the United Kingdom

Europe has suffered unprecedented epizootics of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 since Autumn 2021. As well as impacting upon commercial and wild avian species, the virus has also infected mammalian species more than ever observed previously. Mammalian species involved in spill over events have primarily been scavenging terrestrial carnivores and farmed mammalian species although marine mammals have also been affected. Alongside reports of detections of mammalian species found dead through different surveillance schemes, several mass mortality events have been reported in farmed and wild animals. In November 2022, an unusual mortality event was reported in captive bush dogs (Speothos venaticus) with clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAIV of avian origin being the causative agent. The event involved an enclosure of 15 bush dogs, 10 of which succumbed during a nine-day period with some dogs exhibiting neurological disease. Ingestion of infected meat is proposed as the most likely infection route.

Evaluating the epizootic and zoonotic threat of an H7N9 low-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) variant associated with enhanced pathogenicity in turkeys

Between 2013 and 2017, the A/Anhui/1/13-lineage (H7N9) low-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) was epizootic in chickens in China, causing mild disease, with 616 fatal human cases. Despite poultry vaccination, H7N9 has not been eradicated. Previously, we demonstrated increased pathogenesis in turkeys infected with H7N9, correlating with the emergence of the L217Q (L226Q H3 numbering) polymorphism in the haemagglutinin (HA) protein. A Q217-containing virus also arose and is now dominant in China following vaccination. We compared infection and transmission of this Q217-containing 'turkey-adapted' (ty-ad) isolate alongside the H7N9 (L217) wild-type (wt) virus in different poultry species and investigated the zoonotic potential in the ferret model. Both wt and ty-ad viruses demonstrated similar shedding and transmission in turkeys and chickens. However, the ty-ad virus was significantly more pathogenic than the wt virus in turkeys but not in chickens, causing 100 and 33% mortality in turkeys respectively. Expanded tissue tropism was seen for the ty-ad virus in turkeys but not in chickens, yet the viral cell receptor distribution was broadly similar in the visceral organs of both species. The ty-ad virus required exogenous trypsin for in vitro replication yet had increased replication in primary avian cells. Replication was comparable in mammalian cells, and the ty-ad virus replicated successfully in ferrets. The L217Q polymorphism also affected antigenicity. Therefore, H7N9 infection in turkeys can generate novel variants with increased risk through altered pathogenicity and potential HA antigenic escape. These findings emphasize the requirement for enhanced surveillance and understanding of A/Anhui/1/13-lineage viruses and their risk to different species.

FOUR-WEEK ORAL ADMINISTRATION OF BALOXAVIR MARBOXIL AS AN ANTI-INFLUENZA VIRUS DRUG SHOWS NO TOXICITY IN CHICKENS

High pathogenicity avian influenza is an acute zoonotic disease with high mortality in birds caused by a high pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV). Recently, HPAIV has rapidly spread worldwide and has killed many wild birds, including endangered species. Baloxavir marboxil (BXM), an anti-influenza agent used for humans, was reported to reduce mortality and virus secretion from HPAIV-infected chickens (Gallus domesticus, order Galliformes) at a dosage of ≥2.5 mg/kg when administered simultaneously with viral challenge. Application of this treatment to endangered birds requires further information on potential avian-specific toxicity caused by repeated exposure to BXM over the long term. To obtain information of potential avian-specific toxicity, a 4-wk oral repeated-dose study of BXM was conducted in chickens (n = 6 or 7 per group), which are commonly used as laboratory avian species. The study was conducted in reference to the human pharmaceutical guidelines for nonclinical repeated-dose drug toxicity studies to evaluate systemic toxicity and exposure. No adverse changes were observed in any organs examined, and dose proportional increases in systemic exposure to active pharmaceutical ingredients were noted from 12.5 to 62.5 mg/kg per day. BXM showed no toxicity to chickens at doses of up to 62.5 mg/kg per day, at which systemic exposure was approximately 71 times higher than systemic exposure at 2.5 mg/kg, the reported efficacious dosage amount, in HPAIV-infected chickens. These results also suggest that BXM could be considered safe for treating HPAIV-infected endangered birds due to its high safety margin compared with the efficacy dose. The data in this study could contribute to the preservation of endangered birds by using BXM as a means of protecting biodiversity.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5 Clade 2.3.4.4b Virus Infection in Birds and Mammals

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are highly contagious respiratory viruses of birds, leading to significant morbidity and mortality globally and causing substantial economic losses to the poultry industry and agriculture. Since their first isolation in 2013-2014, the Asian-origin H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAI) of clade 2.3.4.4b have undergone unprecedented evolution and reassortment of internal gene segments. In just a few years, it supplanted other AIV clades, and now it is widespread in the wild migratory waterfowl, spreading to Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Wild waterfowl, the natural reservoir of LPAIVs and generally more resistant to the disease, also manifested high morbidity and mortality with HPAIV clade 2.3.4.4b. This clade also caused overt clinical signs and mass mortality in a variety of avian and mammalian species never reported before, such as raptors, seabirds, sealions, foxes, and others. Most notably, the recent outbreaks in dairy cattle were associated with the emergence of a few critical mutations related to mammalian adaptation, raising concerns about the possibility of jumping species and acquisition of sustained human-to-human transmission. The main clinical signs and anatomopathological findings associated with clade 2.3.4.4b virus infection in birds and non-human mammals are hereby summarized.

A real-time colourimetric reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) assay for the rapid detection of highly pathogenic H5 clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza viruses

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) are a major threat to the global poultry industry and public health due to their zoonotic potential. Since 2016, Europe and France have faced major epizootics caused by clade 2.3.4.4b H5 HPAIV. To reduce sample-to-result times, point-of-care testing is urgently needed to help prevent further outbreaks and the propagation of the virus. This study presents the design of a novel real-time colourimetric reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) assay for the detection of clade 2.3.4.4b H5 HPAIV. A clinical validation of this RT-LAMP assay was performed on 198 pools of clinical swabs sampled in 52 poultry flocks during the H5 HPAI 2020-2022 epizootics in France. This RT-LAMP assay allowed the specific detection of HPAIV H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4b within 30 min with a sensitivity of 86.11%. This rapid, easy-to-perform, inexpensive, molecular detection assay could be included in the HPAIV surveillance toolbox.

Genetic Diversity of Avian Influenza Viruses Detected in Waterbirds in Northeast Italy Using Two Different Sampling Strategies

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs), which circulate endemically in wild aquatic birds, pose a significant threat to poultry and raise concerns for their zoonotic potential. From August 2021 to April 2022, a multi-site cross-sectional study involving active AIV epidemiological monitoring was conducted in wetlands of the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy, adjacent to densely populated poultry areas. A total of 129 cloacal swab samples (CSs) and 407 avian faecal droppings samples (FDs) were collected, with 7 CSs (5.4%) and 4 FDs (1%) testing positive for the AIV matrix gene through rRT-PCR. A COI-barcoding protocol was applied to recognize the species of origin of AIV-positive FDs. Multiple low-pathogenic AIV subtypes were identified, and five of these were isolated, including an H5N3, an H1N1, and three H9N2 in wild ducks. Following whole-genome sequencing, phylogenetic analyses of the hereby obtained strains showed close genetic relationships with AIVs detected in countries along the Black Sea/Mediterranean migratory flyway. Notably, none of the analyzed gene segments were genetically related to HPAI H5N1 viruses of clade 2.3.4.4b isolated from Italian poultry during the concurrent 2021-2022 epidemic. Overall, the detected AIV genetic diversity emphasizes the necessity for ongoing monitoring in wild hosts using diverse sampling strategies and whole-genome sequencing.

Comparison of the Clinical Manifestation of HPAI H5Nx in Different Poultry Types in the Netherlands, 2014-2022

This study describes clinical manifestations of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1, H5N8 and H5N6 outbreaks between 2014 and 2018 and 2020 and 2022 in the Netherlands for different poultry types and age groups. Adult duck (breeder) farms and juvenile chicken (broiler and laying pullet) farms were not diagnosed before 2020. Outbreaks in ducks decreased in 2020-2022 vs. 2014-2018, but increased for meat-type poultry. Neurological, locomotor and reproductive tract signs were often observed in ducks, whereas laying- and meat-type poultry more often showed mucosal membrane and skin signs, including cyanosis and hemorrhagic conjunctiva. Juveniles (chickens and ducks) showed neurological and locomotor signs more often than adults. Diarrhea occurred more often in adult chickens and juvenile ducks. Mortality increased exponentially within four days before notification in chickens and ducks, with a more fluctuating trend in ducks and meat-type poultry than in layers. For ducks, a mortality ratio (MR) > 3, compared to the average mortality of the previous week, was reached less often than in chickens. A lower percentage of laying flocks with MR > 3 was found for 2020-2022 vs. 2014-2018, but without significant differences in clinical signs. This study provides a basis for improvements in mortality- and clinical-sign-based early warning criteria, especially for juvenile chickens and ducks.

Enzootic Circulation, Massive Gull Mortality and Poultry Outbreaks during the 2022/2023 High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza H5N1 Season in the Czech Republic

In 2022/2023, Europe experienced its third consecutive season of high-pathogenicity avian influenza. During this period, the Czech Republic was again severely affected. For the first time, the number of culled birds approached one million, which was three times higher than in previous seasons. In parallel to the outbreaks in poultry, mass die-offs of gulls were also observed. In the present study, we performed whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of 137 H5N1 strains collected in the Czech Republic in 2022/2023 (94.6% of all outbreaks or locations). The analysis revealed four distinct genotypes: AB, CH, BB and AF. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that the AF genotype persisted from the previous H5N1 season without reassortment. In addition, the genotype BB, which was detected mainly in gulls, showed a noticeable strain diversity at the local level. This virus was also responsible for a single outbreak in commercially bred turkeys. Finally, an interesting spatio-temporal cluster with three co-circulating H5N1 genotypes, AB, CH and AF, was identified with no evidence of intrasubtype reassortment. Highly sensitive molecular surveillance and the timely sharing of genomic sequences and associated metadata could greatly assist in tracking the spread and detecting molecular changes associated with the increased virulence of this potentially zoonotic pathogen.

Annual report on surveillance for avian influenza in poultry and wild birds in Member States of the European Union in 2022

All European Union (EU) Member States (MSs) are required to implement surveillance for avian influenza (AI) in poultry and wild birds and (i) to notify the outbreaks, when relevant and (ii) to report the results to the responsible authority. In addition, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom (Northern Ireland) also implement ongoing surveillance programmes to monitor occurrences of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in poultry and wild birds. EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission to collate, validate, analyse and summarise the data resulting from these AI surveillance programmes in an annual report. The present report summarises the results of the surveillance activities carried out in MSs, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom (Northern Ireland) in 2022. Overall, the 31 reporting countries (RCs) sampled 22,171 poultry establishments (PEs) during the 2022 surveillance activity: 18,490 PEs were sampled for serological testing and 3775 were sampled for virological testing. Some PEs were therefore sampled for both type of analytical methods. Out of the 18,490 PEs sampled for serological testing, 15 (0.08%) were seropositive for influenza A(H5) viruses. Out of the 3775 PEs sampled for virological testing, 74 PEs (1.96%) were positive to the virological assay for influenza A(H5) viruses. Seropositive PEs were found in four RCs (Belgium, Poland, Spain and Sweden) and as in previous years, the highest percentages of seropositive PEs were found in PEs raising breeding geese and waterfowl game birds. Out of these 15 seropositive PEs, 3 also tested positive by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for influenza A (H5) viruses - 2 for highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) and 1 low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) (H5N3). In relation to the virological surveys, 10 RCs (32%) out of the 31 reported the detection of A (H5) viruses in 74 PEs, covering 12 different poultry categories. More specifically, 54 reported HPAIV A(H5N1), 17 HPAIV (H5N8), 2 AIV (H5N1) with unknown virus pathogenicity and 1 low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) (H5N3). Additionally, six PEs tested positive for undefined AIVs in three RCs. A total of 32,143 wild birds were sampled, with 4163 (12.95%) wild birds testing positive for HPAIVs by PCR, from 25 RCs. In contrast to previous years, out of the 4163 wild birds testing positive for HPAIv, subtype A(H5N1) virus was the main influenza A virus subtype identified among the wild bird testing positive for HPAIVs (3942; 95%). In addition, RCs also reported 984 wild birds testing positive for low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI). Out of those, for 660 (67%) it was ascertained that the subtype was non-A(H5/H7); 260 (26%) wild birds tested positive for LPAIv of A(H5 or H7) subtypes and the remaining 64 (7%) LPAI viruses were belonging to other H-subtypes.

Genetic and antigenic analyses of H5N8 and H5N1 subtypes high pathogenicity avian influenza viruses isolated from wild birds and poultry farms in Japan in the winter of 2021-2022

In the winter of 2021-2022, multiple subtypes (H5N8 and H5N1) of high pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) were confirmed to be circulating simultaneously in Japan. Here, we phylogenetically and antigenically analyzed HPAIVs that were isolated from infected wild birds, an epidemiological investigation of affected poultry farms, and our own active surveillance study. H5 subtype hemagglutinin (HA) genes of 32 representative HPAIV isolates were classified into clade 2.3.4.4b lineage and subsequently divided into three groups (G2a, G2b, and G2d). All H5N8 HPAIVs were isolated in early winter and had HA genes belonging to the G2a group. H5N1 HPAIVs belong to the G2b and G2d groups. Although G2b viruses were widespread throughout the season, G2d viruses endemically circulated in Northeast Japan after January 2022. Deep sequence analysis showed that the four HPAIVs isolated at the beginning of winter had both N8 and N1 subtypes of neuraminidase genes. Environmental water-derived G2a HPAIV, A/water/Tottori/NK1201-2/2021 (H5N8), has unique polymerase basic protein 1 and nucleoprotein genes, similar to those of low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (LPAIVs). These results indicate that multiple H5 HPAIVs and LPAIVs disseminated to Japan via transboundary winter migration of wild birds, and HPAIVs with novel gene constellations could emerge in these populations. Cross-neutralization test revealed that G2a H5N8 HPAIVs were antigenically distinct from a G2b H5N1 HPAIV, suggesting that antibody pressure in wild birds was involved in the transition of the HPAIV groups during the season.

Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of highly pathogenic H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b virus in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Influenza A virus continues to represent a growing problem affecting mainly birds but with an increasing number of mammal transmission events reported each year. Nevertheless, molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of influenza A viruses originating from all confirmed cases have not been systematically performed in all parts of the world. In this study, we investigated a sample originating from a mute swan that died in November 2021 in the northern part of Bosnia and Herzegovina with RT-qPCR and whole genome sequencing using ONT MinION. It was diagnosed as a highly pathogenic Influenza A virus, subtype H5N1 of 2.3.4.4b clade, and phylogenetic analysis revealed high sequence homology with other European HPAI H5N1 sequences at the time. The notable detected mutations in HA (N110S and T139P) and NA genes (H155Y), that facilitate the host specificity shift and enable the resistance to some antiviral drugs respectively, underscore the necessity of virus evolution surveillance. Therefore, the rapid dissemination of information, including virological and molecular data, is essential for the introduction of tailored prevention measures for infected animals, providing clearer insight and better awareness of a potential public health threat.

A systematic review of mechanistic models used to study avian influenza virus transmission and control

The global spread of avian influenza A viruses in domestic birds is causing increasing socioeconomic devastation. Various mechanistic models have been developed to better understand avian influenza transmission and evaluate the effectiveness of control measures in mitigating the socioeconomic losses caused by these viruses. However, the results of models of avian influenza transmission and control have not yet been subject to a comprehensive review. Such a review could help inform policy makers and guide future modeling work. To help fill this gap, we conducted a systematic review of the mechanistic models that have been applied to field outbreaks. Our three objectives were to: (1) describe the type of models and their epidemiological context, (2) list estimates of commonly used parameters of low pathogenicity and highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission, and (3) review the characteristics of avian influenza transmission and the efficacy of control strategies according to the mechanistic models. We reviewed a total of 46 articles. Of these, 26 articles estimated parameters by fitting the model to data, one evaluated the effectiveness of control strategies, and 19 did both. Values of the between-individual reproduction number ranged widely: from 2.18 to 86 for highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, and from 4.7 to 45.9 for low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses, depending on epidemiological settings, virus subtypes and host species. Other parameters, such as the durations of the latent and infectious periods, were often taken from the literature, limiting the models' potential insights. Concerning control strategies, many models evaluated culling (n = 15), while vaccination received less attention (n = 6). According to the articles reviewed, optimal control strategies varied between virus subtypes and local conditions, and depended on the overall objective of the intervention. For instance, vaccination was optimal when the objective was to limit the overall number of culled flocks. In contrast, pre-emptive culling was preferred for reducing the size and duration of an epidemic. Early implementation consistently improved the overall efficacy of interventions, highlighting the need for effective surveillance and epidemic preparedness.

Investigating the Genetic Diversity of H5 Avian Influenza Viruses in the United Kingdom from 2020-2022

Since 2020, the United Kingdom and Europe have experienced annual epizootics of high-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV). The first epizootic, during the autumn/winter of 2020-2021, involved six H5Nx subtypes, although H5N8 HPAIV dominated in the United Kingdom. While genetic assessments of the H5N8 HPAIVs within the United Kingdom demonstrated relative homogeneity, there was a background of other genotypes circulating at a lower degree with different neuraminidase and internal genes.  Following a small number of detections of H5N1 in wild birds over the summer of 2021, the autumn/winter of 2021-2022 saw another European H5 HPAIV epizootic that dwarfed the prior epizootic. This second epizootic was dominated almost exclusively by H5N1 HPAIV, although six distinct genotypes were defined. We have used genetic analysis to evaluate the emergence of different genotypes and proposed reassortment events that have been observed. The existing data suggest that the H5N1 viruses circulating in Europe during late 2020 continued to circulate in wild birds throughout 2021, with minimal adaptation, but then went on to reassort with AIVs in the wild bird population. We have undertaken an in-depth genetic assessment of H5 HPAIVs detected in the United Kingdom over two winter seasons and demonstrate the utility of in-depth genetic analyses in defining the diversity of H5 HPAIVs circulating in avian species, the potential for zoonotic risk, and whether incidents of lateral spread can be defined over independent incursions of infections from wild birds. This provides key supporting data for mitigation activities. IMPORTANCE High-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) outbreaks devastate avian species across all sectors, having both economic and ecological impacts through mortalities in poultry and wild birds, respectively. These viruses can also represent a significant zoonotic risk. Since 2020, the United Kingdom has experienced two successive outbreaks of H5 HPAIV. While H5N8 HPAIV was predominant during the 2020-2021 outbreak, other H5 subtypes were also detected. The following year, there was a shift in the subtype dominance to H5N1 HPAIV, but multiple H5N1 genotypes were detected. Through the thorough utilization of whole-genome sequencing, it was possible to track and characterize the genetic evolution of these H5 HPAIVs in United Kingdom poultry and wild birds. This enabled us to assess the risk posed by these viruses at the poultry-wild bird and the avian-human interfaces and to investigate the potential lateral spread between infected premises, a key factor in understanding the threat to the commercial sector.

Genetic Characterization and Pathogenesis of H5N1 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Isolated in South Korea during 2021-2022

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 H5Nx have been circulating in poultry and wild birds worldwide since 2014. In South Korea, after the first clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAI viruses were isolated from wild birds in October 2021, additional HPAIV outbreaks occurred in poultry farms until April 2022. In this study, we genetically characterized clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAIV isolates in 2021-2022 and examined the pathogenicity and transmissibility of A/mandarin duck/Korea/WA585/2021 (H5N1) (WA585/21) in chickens and ducks. Clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAI viruses caused 47 outbreaks in poultry farms and were also detected in multiple wild birds. Phylogenetic analysis of HA and NA genes indicated that Korean H5N1 HPAI isolates were closely related to Eurasian viruses isolated in 2021-2022. Four distinct genotypes of H5N1 HPAI viruses were identified in poultry, and the majority were also found in wild birds. WA585/21 inoculated chickens showed virulent pathogenicity with high mortality and transmission. Meanwhile, ducks infected with the virus showed no mortality but exhibited high rates of transmission and longer viral shedding than chickens, suggesting that they may play an important role as silent carriers. In conclusion, consideration of both genetic and pathogenic traits of H5N1 HPAI viruses is required for effective viral control.

Clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 high pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) from the 2021/22 epizootic is highly duck adapted and poorly adapted to chickens

The 2021/2022 epizootic of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAIV) remains one of the largest ever in the UK, being caused by a clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAIV. This epizootic affected more than 145 poultry premises, most likely through independent incursion from infected wild birds, supported by more than 1700 individual detections of H5N1 from wild bird mortalities. Here an H5N1 HPAIV, representative of this epizootic (H5N1-21), was used to investigate its virulence, pathogenesis and transmission in layer chickens and Pekin ducks, two species of epidemiological importance. We inoculated both avian species with decreasing H5N1-21 doses. The virus was highly infectious in ducks, with high infection levels and accompanying shedding of viral RNA, even in ducks inoculated with the lowest dose, reflecting the strong waterfowl adaptation of the clade 2.3.4.4 HPAIVs. Duck-to-duck transmission was very efficient, coupled with high environmental contamination. H5N1-21 was frequently detected in water sources, serving as likely sources of infection for ducks, but inhalable dust and aerosols represented low transmission risks. In contrast, chickens inoculated with the highest dose exhibited lower rates of infection compared to ducks. There was no evidence for experimental H5N1-21 transmission to any naive chickens, in two stocking density scenarios, coupled with minimal and infrequent contamination being detected in the chicken environment. Systemic viral dissemination to multiple organs reflected the pathogenesis and high mortalities in both species. In summary, the H5N1-21 virus is highly infectious and transmissible in anseriformes, yet comparatively poorly adapted to galliformes, supporting strong host preferences for wild waterfowl. Key environmental matrices were also identified as being important in the epidemiological spread of this virus during the continuing epizootic.

Development of a nucleoside-modified mRNA vaccine against clade 2.3.4.4b H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses from H5 clade 2.3.4.4b are circulating at unprecedently high levels in wild and domestic birds and have the potential to adapt to humans. We generated an mRNA lipid nanoparticle (LNP) vaccine encoding the hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein from a clade 2.3.4.4b H5 isolate. We show that the vaccine is immunogenic in mice and ferrets and prevents morbidity and mortality of ferrets following 2.3.4.4b H5N1 challenge.

A Generic Risk Assessment Model for Animal Disease Entry through Wildlife: The Example of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and African Swine Fever in The Netherlands

Animal diseases can enter countries or regions through the movements of infected wildlife. A generic risk model would allow to quantify the risk of entry via this introduction route for different diseases and wildlife species, despite the vast variety in both, and help policy-makers to make informed decisions. Here, we propose such a generic risk assessment model and illustrate its application by assessing the risk of entry of African swine fever (ASF) through wild boar and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) through wild birds for the Netherlands between 2014–2021. We used disease outbreak data and abstracted movement patterns to populate a stochastic risk model. We found that the entry risk of HPAI fluctuated between the years, with a peak in 2021. In that year, we estimated the number of infected birds to reach the Dutch border by wild bird migration at 273 (95% uncertainty interval: 254–290). The probability that ASF outbreaks that occurred between 2014 and 2021 reached the Dutch border through wild boar movement was very low throughout the whole period; only the upper confidence bound indicated a small entry risk. On a yearly scale, the predicted entry risk for HPAI correlated well with the number of observed outbreaks. In conclusion, we present a generic and flexible framework to assess the entry risk of disease through wildlife. The model allows rapid and transparent estimation of the entry risk for diverse diseases and wildlife species. The modular structure of the model allows for adding nuance and complexity when required or when more data becomes available.

Descriptive Epidemiology of and Response to the High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (H5N8) Epidemic in South African Coastal Seabirds, 2018

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) clade 2.3.4.4b H5N8 virus was detected in coastal seabirds in late 2017 in South Africa, following a devastating epidemic in the commercial poultry and ostrich industries. By May 2018, the infection had been confirmed in fifteen seabird species at 31 sites along the southern coast, with the highest mortality recorded in terns (Family Laridae, Order Charadriiformes). Over 7,500 positive or suspected cases in seabirds were reported. Among those infected were three endangered species: African penguins (Spheniscus demersus Linnaeus, 1758), Cape cormorants (Phalacrocorax capensis Wahlberg, 1855), and Cape gannets (Morus capensis Lichtenstein, 1823). The scale and impact of this outbreak were unprecedented in southern African coastal seabirds and raised logistical challenges in resource allocation, risk mitigation, and outbreak response. It required the collaboration of multiple stakeholder groups, including a variety of government departments and nongovernmental organizations. With another HPAI outbreak in South African seabirds in 2021 and major incursions in seabird species in the northern hemisphere in 2022, it is vital to share and consolidate knowledge on the subject. We describe the epidemic, the lessons learned, and recommendations for developing contingency plans.

An Evaluation of Avian Influenza Virus Whole-Genome Sequencing Approaches Using Nanopore Technology

As exemplified by the global response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, whole-genome sequencing played an important role in monitoring the evolution of novel viral variants and provided guidance on potential antiviral treatments. The recent rapid and extensive introduction and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in Europe, North America, and elsewhere raises the need for similarly rapid sequencing to aid in appropriate response and mitigation activities. To facilitate this objective, we investigate a next-generation sequencing platform that uses a portable nanopore sequencing device to generate and present data in real time. This platform offers the potential to extend in-house sequencing capacities to laboratories that may otherwise lack resources to adopt sequencing technologies requiring large benchtop instruments. We evaluate this platform for routine use in a diagnostic laboratory. In this study, we evaluate different primer sets for the whole genome amplification of influenza A virus and evaluate five different library preparation approaches for sequencing on the nanopore platform using the MinION flow cell. A limited amplification procedure and a rapid procedure are found to be best among the approaches taken.

Genotype Diversity, Wild Bird-to-Poultry Transmissions, and Farm-to-Farm Carryover during the Spread of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in the Czech Republic in 2021/2022

In 2021/2022, the re-emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) occurred in Europe. The outbreak was seeded from two sources: resident and reintroduced viruses, which is unprecedented in the recorded history of avian influenza. The dominant subtype was H5N1, which replaced the H5N8 subtype that had predominated in previous seasons. In this study, we present a whole genome sequence and a phylogenetic analysis of 57 H5N1 HPAI and two low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H5N1 strains collected in the Czech Republic during 2021/2022. Phylogenetic analysis revealed close relationships between H5N1 genomes from poultry and wild birds and secondary transmission in commercial geese. The genotyping showed considerable genetic heterogeneity among Czech H5N1 viruses, with six different HPAI genotypes, three of which were apparently unique. In addition, second-order reassortment relationships were observed with the direct involvement of co-circulating H5N1 LPAI strains. The genetic distance between Czech H5N1 HPAI and the closest LPAI segments available in the database illustrates the profound gaps in our knowledge of circulating LPAI strains. The changing dynamics of HPAI in the wild may increase the likelihood of future HPAI outbreaks and present new challenges in poultry management, biosecurity, and surveillance.

Emergence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A Virus (H5N1) of Clade 2.3.4.4b in Egypt, 2021-2022

Wild migratory birds have the capability to spread avian influenza virus (AIV) over long distances as well as transmit the virus to domestic birds. In this study, swab and tissue samples were obtained from 190 migratory birds during close surveillance in Egypt in response to the recent outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus. The collected samples were tested for a variety of AIV subtypes (H5N1, H9N2, H5N8, and H6N2) as well as other pathogens such as NDV, IBV, ILT, IBDV, and WNV. Among all of the tested samples, the HPAI H5N1 virus was found in six samples; the other samples were found to be negative for all of the tested pathogens. The Egyptian HPAI H5N1 strains shared genetic traits with the HPAI H5N1 strains that are currently being reported in Europe, North America, Asia, and Africa in 2021-2022. Whole genome sequencing revealed markers associated with mammalian adaption and virulence traits among different gene segments, similar to those found in HPAI H5N1 strains detected in Europe and Africa. The detection of the HPAI H5N1 strain of clade 2.3.4.4b in wild birds in Egypt underlines the risk of the introduction of this strain into the local poultry population. Hence, there is reason to be vigilant and continue epidemiological and molecular monitoring of the AIV in close proximity to the domestic-wild bird interface.

Mass Mortality Caused by Highly Pathogenic Influenza A(H5N1) Virus in Sandwich Terns, the Netherlands, 2022

We collected data on mass mortality in Sandwich terns (Thalasseus sandvicensis) during the 2022 breeding season in the Netherlands. Mortality was associated with at least 2 variants of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus clade 2.3.4.4b. We report on carcass removal efforts relative to survival in colonies. Mitigation strategies urgently require structured research.

Iceland as Stepping Stone for Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus between Europe and North America

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) of hemagglutinin type H5 and clade 2.3.4.4b have widely spread within the northern hemisphere since 2020 and threaten wild bird populations, as well as poultry production. We present phylogeographic evidence that Iceland has been used as a stepping stone for HPAIV translocation from northern Europe to North America by infected but mobile wild birds. At least 2 independent incursions of HPAIV H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b assigned to 2 hemagglutinin clusters, B1 and B2, are documented for summer‒autumn 2021 and spring 2022. Spread of HPAIV H5N1 to and among colony-breeding pelagic avian species in Iceland is ongoing. Potentially devastating effects (i.e., local losses >25%) on these species caused by extended HPAIV circulation in space and time are being observed at several affected breeding sites throughout the North Atlantic.

Avian influenza overview June - September 2022

The 2021-2022 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemic season is the largest HPAI epidemic so far observed in Europe, with a total of 2,467 outbreaks in poultry, 47.7 million birds culled in the affected establishments, 187 outbreaks in captive birds, and 3,573 HPAI virus detections in wild birds with an unprecedent geographical extent reaching from Svalbard islands to South Portugal and Ukraine, affecting 37 European countries. Between 11 June and 9 September 2022, 788 HPAI virus detections were reported in 16 European countries in poultry (56), captive (22) and wild birds (710). Several colony-breeding seabird species exhibited widespread and massive mortality from HPAI A(H5N1) virus along the northwest coast of Europe. This resulted in an unprecedentedly high level of HPAI virus detections in wild birds between June and August 2022 and represents an ongoing risk of infection for domestic birds. HPAI outbreaks were still observed in poultry from June to September with five-fold more infected premises than observed during the same period in 2021 and mostly distributed along the Atlantic coast. Response options to this new epidemiological situation include the definition and rapid implementation of suitable and sustainable HPAI mitigation strategies such as appropriate biosecurity measures and surveillance strategies for early detection in the different poultry production systems. The viruses currently circulating in Europe belong to clade 2.3.4.4b with seven genotypes, three of which identified for the first time during this time period, being detected during summer. HPAI A(H5) viruses were also detected in wild mammal species in Europe and North America and showed genetic markers of adaptation to replication in mammals. Since the last report, two A(H5N6), two A(H9N2) and one A(H10N3) human infections were reported in China. The risk of infection is assessed as low for the general population in the EU/EEA, and low to medium for occupationally exposed people.

Annual report on surveillance for avian influenza in poultry and wild birds in Member States of the European Union in 2021

European Union (EU) Member States (MSs) are required to carry out surveillance for avian influenza (AI) in poultry and wild birds and notify the results to the responsible authority. In addition, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom (Northern Ireland) also implement ongoing surveillance programmes to monitor incursions of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in poultry and wild birds. EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission to collate, validate, analyse and summarise the data resulting from these AI surveillance programmes in an annual report. The present report summarises the results of the surveillance activities carried out in MSs and the aforementioned countries in 2021. Overall, 24,290 poultry establishments (PEs) were sampled, of which 27 were seropositive for influenza A(H5) and 4 for A(H7) viruses. Seropositive PEs were found in 10 MSs and, as per previous years, the highest percentages of seropositive PEs were found in establishments raising waterfowl game birds and breeding geese. Out of these 31 seropositive PEs, 3 tested positive by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for influenza A(H5) viruses: 1 for highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV), 1 for low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) and 1 with unknown virus pathogenicity. In addition, 16 countries reported PCR test results from 1,858 PEs which did not correspond to the follow‐up testing of a positive serology event (e.g. in some PEs, PCR tests were used for screening). Sixty‐five of these PEs in 10 MSs were found positive for AIVs. Apart from poultry, 31,382 wild birds were sampled, with 2,314 wild birds testing positive for HPAIVs by PCR. Twenty‐two countries reported HPAIV‐positive wild birds and most positive samples were identified as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) virus. In addition, 328 wild birds tested positive for LPAIVs of the A(H5/H7) subtypes and 362 wild birds tested positive for non‐A(H5/H7) subtype AIVs.

Pathogenicity of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 subtype for herring gulls (Larus argentatus): impact of homo- and heterosubtypic immunity on the outcome of infection

To improve understanding of the pathobiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) infections in wild birds, pathogenicity and transmissibility of HPAIV H5N8 subtype clade 2.3.4.4b was evaluated in ~ 8-week-old herring gulls (Larus argentatus) divided into 3 groups: naïve birds (group A), birds previously exposed to low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) H5N1 (group B) and LPAIV H13N6 (group C). The HPAIV H5N8 virus was highly virulent for naïve gulls, that showed early morbidity, high mortality, a broad spectrum of clinical signs, including violent neurological disorders, systemic distribution of the virus in organs accompanied by high level of shedding and transmission to contact birds. Pre-exposure to homologous and heterologous LPAIV subtypes conferred only partial protection: we observed increased survival rate (statistically significant only in group B), nervous signs, pantropic distribution of virus in organs, shedding (significantly reduced in gulls of group C in the early phase of disease and asymptomatic shedding in the late phase), transmission to contact gulls (more pronounced in group B) and near-complete seroconversion in survivors. Histopathological and immunohistochemical results indicate virus tropism for the neural, respiratory and myocardial tissues. In conclusion, we demonstrate that HPAIV H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4b is highly virulent and lethal for fully susceptible herring gulls and that pre-exposure to homo- and heterosubtypic LPAIV only partially modulates the disease outcome.